UN Summit Analysis

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PEACE CHILD INTERNATIONAL

UN’s SUMMIT of the FUTURE

25th September 2024

Peace Child has been involved in several key UN events, from the 1986 International Year of Peace, the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, the 1995 UN 50th Anniversary to the Rio+5, +10 and +20 meetings. The 2024 Summit of the Future is the most recent of these, so it may be instructive for participants in future UN events to review its 5-year gestation and how it produced its Pact for the Future along with 2 Annexes: a Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations. This Analysis looks back to assess first, the official Government Road to the Summit; then Civil Society’s pathway and, finally, Peace Child International’s own journey to what, for the UN at least, was a landmark political moment.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF UN MEMBER STATE ROAD TO THE SUMMIT OF THE FUTURE

• The Announcement: Secretary-General,AntónioGuterres,hadwantedtocelebratethe UN’s75th Anniversaryin2020–buttheUN’sMemberGovernmentshadnoappetitefor celebration.So–heconducteda“GlobalConversation”–whichhappenedmostlyonlineas theWorldwasinthemidstintheCovidcrisis.(PeaceChildcontributedtheOnline75th AnniversaryFestivalinLondon.)Fromthisconsultationwithover1.5millionpeople,theS-G developed“OurCommonAgenda”whichcalledfor“ASummitoftheFuture”toagreeon Actionsthatwoulddeliver “stronger, more networked and inclusive multilateral system, anchored within the United Nations.” GuterrescalledtheSummita “once-in-a-generation chance to change the course of history,” –adding: “Thechoiceswe make, or failtomake, todaycould result inBREAKDOWNorBREAKTHROUGHtoagreener, better, saferfuture.Thechoice isoursto make.” YoungPeopleandCivilSocietywereencouragedtocontributedideas–sowedid.

• The Rationale:InhisPressStatement,S-GGuterressaidthattheSummitwouldenablethe currentgenerationofpeacebuilderstoaddresschallengesnotvisiblewhentheUNwas created80yearsago. “International challenges are moving faster than our ability to solve them,” headded. “We see out-of-control geopolitical divisions and runaway conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and beyond. Runaway climate change. Runaway inequalities and debt. Runaway development of new technologies like artificial intelligence – without guidance or guardrails. And our institutions simply can’t keep up which is no great surprise as those institutions were born in a bygone era for a bygone world. Global institutions and frame-works are today totally inadequate to deal with these complex existential challenges.” UN US-G,Guy Ryder,wholedtheSummitprocess,feelsit “can render the UN and the multilateral system more effective, participatory and networked.” Thatisitsrationale.

• The Delay:SomeUNMemberGovernmentswereinitiallyscepticalabouttheSummit.Some evenwanteditcancelled.InitiallyscheduledforSeptember2023,itwouldhaveclashedwith theSDGSummitsotheSecretariatmovedittoSeptember2024–whichgaveusalllongerto prepare. TosetguidelinesfortheSummit,theUNorganisedaMinisterialMeetingon21

:

September2023–atwhichMinistersfromover100Memberstatessetouttheircountry’s goalsfortheSummit.

• Zero Drafts & Revisions: TwoMemberStates–onefromtheGlobalNorth,onefromthe GlobalSouth,wereappointedasCo-facilitators(cofacs!)foreachoftheoutcomedocuments ofwhichtherewerethree:

–ThePactfortheFuture (Cofacs: Germany and Namibia)

–TheDigitalCompact (Cofacs: Sweden and Zambia)

–TheDeclarationonFutureGenerations (Cofacs: Kingdom of the Netherlands and Jamaica) TheCofacsgeneratedaZeroDraftdocumentfromnumerouscontributionsbymember statesandcivilsocietyorganisationslikePeaceChild. WeallthemcommentedontheZero Drafts–andthatprocesswentbackandforththroughthreerevisionstotheFinalDraft

• Adoption:followingsomelastminute,manoeuvringbythePGA (President of the General Assembly) toagreea“NoAction”decisiononaRussianAmendmentwhichbasicallysought tounderminetheagreement,theFinalDraftwasadoptedbyconsensusattheUNGeneral AssemblywithministersandHeadsofStatepresentonSunday22nd September2024.

C

IVIL SOCIETY PATHWAY TO THE SUMMIT OF THE FUTURE:

• People’s Pact for the Future Preparation:BuildingontheUN75GlobalConversationand OurCommonFuture,C4UN,ledbyBahaiInternational’sDanPerell,developedaCivilSociety processdesignedtodeliverinputtotheSummit’sPactfortheFuturebycreatingaPeople’s Pact.Thiswasdonebyappointingyouthandelderco-facilitatorsfordifferentthematic tracks–eachofwhichconductedaseriesofonlineconsultationswithdifferentexpertsand interestedparties. TheTrackLeadersgatheredthesecommentsintodraftdocumentstobe discussedataGlobalFuturesForumheldattheChurchCentreinNewYorkinMarch2022.

• Global Futures Forum(GFF): Over200civilsocietydelegatesmetattheGFFandagreedan InterimPeople’sPact–whichwasthenwrittenupandcirculatedbyDanPerelltothe differentstakeholders.BecausetheSummitwasdelayed,itwassupposedtobeupdatedby CivilSocietyoverthe18monthsremainingbeforetheSummit.Intheevent,therewasno furtherelaborationandDanPerellannouncedinMarch2023thattheInterimDrafthadnow becometheFinalDraft.Notanidealprocess!

• London Regional Meeting:OneoftheideasthatcameupattheGFFwasthatthereshould beregionalmeetingsineveryUNMemberStateCapitaltodiscussthePactfortheFuture anditsAnnexes.So–PeaceChildInternational,UNA-UKandothergroupsputtogethera RegionalMeetinginLondon–whichwasaddressedbyCharlotteCapstick,headoftheUN DeskattheFCDOandotherexpertsfromdifferentNGOs,likeSavetheChildrenandthe Berlin-basedBerghofFoundation. LikethePeople’sPactprocess,themeetingwas intentionallyintergenerational,andyouthfromvariousUNA’sandelsewherecametogether toprovidetheFCDOwiththeirideasfortheSummit.Themainpurposeofthemeetingwas toengagetheFCDOinafollow-upprocessfortheImPACTCoalitions–whichithasyetto fulfil.

• FCDO Drop-in Calls:Everytwoweeks,CharlottehostedazoomcallwithinterestedCivil Societypartnerstoupdateusallonprogresswithmemberstatenegotiationsofthedifferent tracksofthePactfortheFuture.ThesewereaveryusefulchanceforCivilSocietytoraise concernsaboutwhatthePactdid,anddidnot,include:therewasparticularconcernon severaloftheConversationsaboutGenderandSRHissues–whichalsocameupatthe LondonRegionalMeetingaskeyomissionsinthePact.

• Cardiff Conference:WalesistheonlycountryintheworldtohaveaFutureGenerations Commissioner.SetupbytheWelshWell-beingActin2015,followinganationwidecanvasof views,itisanautonomousbody,fundingbytheWelshGovernment,thatfutureproofsevery pieceoflegislationthatcomesbeforetheSenedd.Itisaworkingexampleof“anticipatory Governance”sohadcontributedalottotheUN’sDeclarationonFutureGenerations. The CardiffConferencewasanIntergenerationalefforttofashionaWelshProtocoldesignedto implementtheUN’sDeclaration–coveringeverystakeholderfromlocalgovernment(-we

heardgreatstoriesfromOxfordandGlamorganCouncils)–business(weheardfromArup partners)–nationalgovernmentandUNagencies.Part-fundedbytheFCDOandthe UNESCOBridgesproject,itwasanexcellentchancetoairdifferentopinionsonhowtheUN Declarationmightspreadfuturesthinkingaroundtheworld.

• Nairobi CSC:TheUNDept.forGlobalCommunicationsandC4UNledthisprocessand appointedtheexcellentyoungIndianresearcher,NudharaYusufandHelpAgeInternational CEO,CaroleOseroAgeng’o,toco-chairtheUN’sfirstAnnualCivilSocietySummittobeheld intheGlobalSouth.Itwas,essentially,aCivilSocietyPrepcomfortheSummitoftheFuture –anddevelopedthe20xImPACTCoalitionsdesignedtobringtogetherGovernmentsand CivilSocietyinsupportoftheSummit’sgoals.FollowingtheMeeting,theCo-chairs combinedtheoutcomesofthediscussionsofalltheImPACTCoalitionsintoasingle documentwhichwasdistributedtoeverymemberstate.ThesessionoftheImPACT CoalitiononFutureGenerationshadinputfromtheCo-facs,wholistenedcarefullytoCivil Societyinputbut,intheend,didnotchangemuchintheirdocument.Andthen,becauseof theUN’scashcrisis,theydilutedthekeydemandthattheUNshouldhaveanEnvoyfor FutureGenerations.

• Action Days: AsfortheSustainableDevelopmentSummit,theSecretariatorganisedtwo ActionDayswhenCivilSocietyOrganisationsinconsultativestatuswiththeUNwereinvited todiscusstheirideasfortheSummit.FortheSummitfortheFuture,ActionDayONEwas focussedonYouth–whichwasopenedbyanindigenousAmerican,andincludedadialogue betweentheSecretaryGeneralandselectedyoungpeopleatwhichheofferedhisapologies totheyouthforbeing“thegenerationthatmessedup.” OntheSecondday–therewerea numberofImPACTcoalitionswhopresentedtheirhopesfortheSummit–butitwasn’tclear whowaslisteningtothem.Also,despitethewholeeventbeingorganisedbytheUNDept.of GlobalCommunications,itwasimmenselyhardtogetacomprehensivelistofwhenand wherethesecivilsocietymeetingswerehappeningandwhowasspeakingatthem.Inthe weekbeforeandaftertheSummit,severalNGOshostedoff-sitemeetingsoutsidetheUN–includingtheSchoolforInternationalFuturesdaylongmeetingon“BuildingHopeful Futures”andawholeseriesofmini-Davos-stylemeetingsattheTavernontheGreenin CentralParkarrangedbytheGoalsHousegroup.WhattheseActionDaysdidaccomplish wastoconvinceUNMemberStateGovernmentsthatthereisaconsiderablegroupofcitizen activistswhoaredeterminedtoseesomeactionasaresultoftheseexpensivesummits.

PEACE CHILD INTERNATIONAL’S JOURNEY TO THE SUMMIT OF THE FUTURE:

• The UN 75 Anniversary Festival – building a more secure world: Aswellasmarkingthe UN’s75thanniversary,thisfestivaladdressedtheoverwhelmingsenseofinsecurityweall feltasaresultoftheCovid-19pandemic.Wewerealsoexperiencingthedramaticeffectsof globalwarming,sofeltcompelledtoworktogethertoprioritiseactionsforbuildingabetter world.Thefestival’sonlineworkshopsexploredthechallengeswefaceon6keyareasof insecurity: Health,Food,Environment,Economics,Peace andtheDigitalworld.OntheUN’s actual75th Anniversary(October24th)artistsfromacrosstheworldunitedinan eveningconcertputtogetherbyPeaceChildInternationalexploringUNPast,Present& Future.TheFestivalproducedafullactionplan,completewithbackgroundpapers,useful links,andacknowledgements.

• The Tallinn / Narva Intergenerational Conference & Declaration: HeldinAugust2021, justaheadoftheGlasgowCOP,expertsfromtheUK,GermanyandEstoniadiscussedwith youthfrom14EuropeancountriesissuesvaryingfromtheplansforaGlobalCitizens’ Assembly,tohowtocreate“SmartCommunities,”tonumerousideasforstrengtheningthe EuropeanGreendealtoaddresstheClimateEmergency–throughtodrawingonEstonia’s enviablereputationfordigitalleadershiptocreateglobally-sharablesoftwaretodealwith health,governanceandeducation.TheTallinnDeclarationwassupposedtobepresentedto theEuropeanUnionasformalCitizeninputtotheGlasgowCOPprocessbuttheconference’s

majororganiserandfunderfailedtomakecontactwithPCIoranyofthedelegatesafterthe meeting,soPCIforgeditsowntrackwiththeCoalitionfortheUNWeneed.(C4UN)

• Environmental Governance Track: DavidWoollcombe,PresidentofPeaceChild International,co-chairedthistrackwithNandiniHarihar oftheIndianCouncilonEnergy, Environment andWater(CEEW). Therewasathirdyouthcoordinatorwhodroppedout duetoadeathinthefamily.Weheldsevenconsultationswithahandfulofexperts –and developedaninitialBriefingPaperand,aftertheconsultations,aFirstDraftEnvironmental GovernancePaperwhichwasdiscussedattheGFF.Thoughweweredisappointedatthe somewhatcasualwaythatthiswaseditedintotheInterimPeople’sPact,thewholeprocess raisedanumberofinterestingandnewideasandofferedgovernmentsausefulcitizens’ viewofthekindofGlobalEnvironmentalGovernancethattheworldneedstoprovide securitytoFutureGenerations.

• Global Futures Forum: PeaceChildbroughttwoyoungpeople,RaviThejaMuthuand LaurenBanhamtotheGFF–wheretheyco-chairedtheEnvironmentalGovernanceTrack sessions.Notmuchofsubstancechangedasaresultofthesemeetings,butsomegood questionswereraisedanddiscussed.Ingeneral,theenthusiasmforEnvironmental Governance,asevidencedbythemomentumgeneratedbytheMobilisinganEarth GovernanceAlliance(MEGA)–waspalpable.Governments,andUNStaff,tooknotice–and Chapter5oftheFinalPactfortheFuturestartsoutwithaboldcommitmentAction38to: “transform global governance and reinvigorate the multilateral system….” by “deepening international cooperation, reaffirming unwavering commitment to international law, and addressing global challenges to ensure that the work of the United Nations in recent decades does not unravel” – thoughthetangibleresultsofthatcommitmentarenotspelledout.

• The Nairobi Civil Society Conference(CSC): Asnotedabove,thiswasessentiallyaCivil SocietyIntergenerationalPrepcomfortheSummitoftheFuture.PeaceChildsentLauren Banhamwho,asaresultofherpresenceattheGFF,hadbecometheProgrammeManager forthenewly-formedLegalPactfortheFuture.Shehadseveralspeakingrolesatthe ConferenceandwaspleasedtorepresentPeaceChildIntl.aswell.DavidWoollcombewas luckyenoughtojoinherasaCommissionfortheNationalLotteryCommunityFundtook himtoNairobiatthesametimeastheConference.HeattendedtheImPACTCoalition meetingsonFutureGenerationswhichsignallyfailedtoincludetheapologythattheS-G subsequentlymadetoyoungpeopleforfailingtotakeadequateconcernforenabling“future generationstomeettheirneeds.”HealsoattendedandcontributedtotheImPACTCoalition ontheLocalisationofDevelopment–whichreflectedPeaceChild’slong-heldbeliefthat small,community-driven,trust-based,regenerativedevelopmentprojectswerethemost transformativetobottom-of-the-pyramiddisadvantagedyoungwomenandmen.

• The Time Travel Chat Show Proposal: ComingoutoftheCSC,DavidandLaurenagreed thattheendlessdietof ‘Panel Discussion followed by Q & A’ wasindigestibletodelegatesand, ultimately,notaconstructivecontributorofnewideastothetopicsunderdiscussion.So –weproposeddogettwoyoungdelegates,todevelopandperformanewversionofthePeace ChildTimeTravelChatShowtostimulateanin-depth,audiencediscussionthatcould involveanaudienceofupto100peopleandgatheropinionsfromallofthem.Theformat wastriedandtestedbothintherun-uptotheRio+20ConferenceandtheCreatetheChange programmes.Sadly,theUNturneddownthisproposal:theresultingformatoftheAction Dayeventswasuniformly ‘Panel Discussion followed by Q & A’. Shame!

The Final Agreement: TheUN’sownPressReleaseabouttheSummitcalleditthe“mostwideranginginternationalagreementinmanyyears,coveringentirelynewareasaswellasissuesonwhich agreementhasnotbeenpossibleindecades.ThePactfortheFutureaims,aboveall,toensurethat internationalinstitutionscandeliverinthefaceofaworldthathaschangeddramaticallysincethose institutionswerecreated.AstheSecretary-Generalhassaid, “we cannot create a future fit for our grandchildren with a system built by our grandparents.”

• Good Points:perhapsthebestpointwasthatMemberStatesagreedthePactatall:upuntil thelastminute,itappearedthatinterventionsbyPakistanandRussiamightderailthe consensusagreementthatthePactrequired.Nowagreed,wehave193MemberState Governmentswhoacknowledgetheir “primary role and responsibility towards safeguarding the needs and interests of future generations…” Thisbuildson,andre-commitsto,the definitionofSustainableDevelopmentagreedintheBrundtlandReportof1987to “meet the needs of current generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs…” ThePactalsoagreesinClause39,gthat: “The question of the veto is a key element of Security Council reform,” andthatthey “will intensify efforts to reach an agreement on the future of the veto, including discussions on limiting its scope and use.” Italsoagreed,in Action25,to “advance the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons” whichincludedadecision to “Recommit to the goal of the total elimination of nuclear weapons.”

• Disappointments:ThePactdidnotstrengthenthelanguageonClimateChange.InAction9, on “actions to address climate change,” thePactrepeatsthelanguageoftheCOPabout “accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power…” –ratherthanthe “phase-out”whichcivilsocietyhadlobbiedfor.AlsointheDeclarationonFuture Generations,Clause11on “promoting international stability, peace and security,” member statesdeletedthephrase: “including by seeking a safer world without nuclear weapons…” HavingagreedAction25(notedabove)–removingthecommitmenttobequeathtofuture generationsaworldwithoutnuclearweaponswassurprising,andverydisappointing.

NEXT STEPS

• More Summits:(ofcourse!):2025willseeUNSummitsonFinancingDevelopmentinSpain inJune/July;AWorldSocialSummitinSeptemberattheUNHQinNewYork;COP30in Belém,Brazil(November)

• Linkages to on-the-ground Action Partnerships:OneoftheUN’smajorcheer-leaders,Liz Cousens,headoftheUNFoundation,callsinherthoughtsaboutNextStepsfollowingthe Summit,calledforan “army of doers to put their shoulders to the wheel.” TheUNitself,and theCivilSocietycoalitionsthatsupportit,hopethattheImPACTCoalitionssetupbythe CivilSocietyConferenceinNairobiwillcontinueandgrowtobecomethatarmy.PeaceChild InternationaliscommittedtothatprocessandwillseektosupporttheUKNationalLottery asitlaunchesitsnewInternationalProgrammewhichisdesignedtoimplementAction6of thePactwhichseeksto “ - invest in people to end poverty and strengthen trust and social cohesion through the localization of sustainable development.” ThisprogrammeforwhichPCI wascommissionedtoresearchandidentifyPilotProjectsinMay2024,seekstodeliver community-driven,regenerative,trust-based,non-extractive,decoloniseddevelopment projectsinAfricathataregenuinelyownedanddrivenbycommunities.Inordertoincrease realsustainabledevelopmentpartnershipsbetweentheGlobalSouthandNorth,PeaceChild isworkingonapairingschemethatallowscommunitygroupsintheUKandAfricatolearn fromtheirdifferentprioritiesforsustainabledevelopmentandthusprovideacornucopiaof waystohealandre-generatetheplaneforfuturegenerations.

• Youth as Ambassadors for Future Generations:WithitsUNCentenary Peace Child and2handerTimeTravelChatShow,PCIwillseektoencourageyoungpeopleeverywhereto becomeAmbassadorsfortheUN’sPactfortheFuture–andencouragecurrentandfuture leaderstotakeseriouslytheirroleofbeingGoodAncestorstoFutureGenerations. Explainingcomplicatedconceptslike“anticipatorygovernance”and“strategicforesight”(whichisdifferentfromforecasting!-)isaseriouscommunicationschallenge–but,asinall itsprojects,PCIwillreplacetheUN’swonk-ishvocabularywithcool,accessibleconcepts thatenableeveryyoungpersontore-brandthemselvesasseriousfuturologistsworkingto ensureasafe,sustainablefutureforthemselves,theirchildrenandgrand-children.

David R Woollcombe, President, Peace Child International 25th September 2024, United Nations HQ, New York

UN

chief António Guterres to seek world leaders’ backing for vision of the

future

Pact covering wars, AI, climate crisis and inequality has been watered down, say critics

Sat 21 Sep 2024 02.00 EDT

António Guterres, the secretary general of the United Nations. Global leaders are gathering in New York this month for the UN’s Summit of the Future. Photograph:

The UN’s secretary general, António Guterres, will try to persuade world leaders to extend their horizons beyond current wars by adopting a pact that he hopes will set a path for a new system of global governance that can prevent similar crises in the future.

Global leaders will gather in New York next week for the UN Summit of the Future, the centrepiece of this year’s launch of the annual United Nations general assembly.

Guterres had outlined an ambitious agenda covering artificial intelligence, groundbreaking UN security council reform, outer space, peace operations, climate change and financing development, but critics say that outline has not so much shrunk as become ever-less specific.

The toll of grinding negotiations and the need for consensus have underlined the divisions that have immobilised the UN for a decade, leading to a watered-down document called “pact for the future” due to be announced at a summit. Talks about the final draft, its five chapters and 58 actions must end on Saturday.

For more than a year Guterres had hoped that by confronting world leaders with the scale

of the future challenges they collectively face, they could be persuaded to set aside some of those divisions about the present.

Guy Ryder, the UN undersecretary for policy who is at the helm of the process, insists the pact “can render the UN and the multilateral system more effective, participatory and networked”, but at briefings he struggled to convince reporters this was not another UN mission statement that will gather dust similar to the 2015 sustainable development goals summit or the Nelson Mandela peace summit in 2018.

At a press conference Guterres called for the current generation of peacebuilders to address challenges not visible when the UN was invented as a much smaller body 80 years ago.

“International challenges are moving faster than our ability to solve them. We see out-ofcontrol geopolitical divisions and runaway conflicts – not least in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and beyond. Runaway climate change. Runaway inequalities and debt. Runaway development of new technologies like artificial intelligence – without guidance or guardrails. And our institutions simply can’t keep up,” he said.

“Crises are interacting and feeding off each other – for example, as digital technologies spread climate disinformation that deepens distrust and fuels polarisation. Global institutions and frameworks are today totally inadequate to deal with these complex and even existential challenges.

“It is no great surprise. Those institutions were born in a bygone era for a bygone world.”

Few disagree with his analysis, but many question whether the pact provides new solutions, as opposed to aspirations. Guterres insisted it represented progress, saying it offers “the strongest language on security council reform in a generation – and the most concrete step towards council enlargement since 1963. The first set of governance measures for new technologies, including artificial intelligence, in all their applications –with the UN at its centre. A major advance in reform of the international financial architecture with the most significant language yet strengthening the role of developing countries. A step change in financing the sustainable development goals and a commitment to advance our [sustainable development goals] stimulus, multiplying the resources available to developing countries.”

David Miliband, the chief executive of International Rescue Committee, said the pact did include practical proposals, such as an emergency platform allowing the UN to use its convening power to address global shocks such as pandemics. He said his test for the pact was “not novelty but strength, commitment and follow-through in a world where the nature of global risk has changed”.

But the negotiators have confronted familiar problems including cold war standoffs, shortage of cash and entrenched western reluctance to cede power to emerging powers – at the security council and in financial institutions. Seeking consensus among 193 countries has been no easy task for the two facilitators, Germany and Namibia. Nor has the backdrop of wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan helped the atmosphere.

Various critics have said the UN pact is not the right place to settle specific differences. Russia has opposed overspecific references to nuclear disarmament. Others have said the Cop conferences are the only place to address the climate crisis. Richard Gowan, the UN specialist at the International Crisis Group, said there was a western reluctance to address the imbalances in the multilateral financial bodies. In a paper for Chatham House thinktank he observed: “The US and its allies argue that the UN is not the right space to negotiate complex financial issues. They say the World Bank and [International Monetary Fund] – where western powers still hold decisive shares of the votes – have a mandate to address these topics. A lot of diplomats from poorer states will be happy if world leaders make political commitments to sort out debt and development issues at the summit. But some hardliners, such as Pakistan, have argued that is not enough, and have even suggested cancelling the summit.”

There are some signs of movement on security council reform where three of the five permanent members on the 15-strong council are France, the UK and the US. The US has suggested creating two new permanent seats for African countries without veto power. But India and Brazil’s claims are also pressing. On the theme of expansion of the security council, an answer may eventually be found.

Ingenious solutions to reduce the veto of the permanent members abound, only to be crushed on the rock of objections from Russia, US and China, and a slow migration is visible to greater use of the larger general assembly where the veto does not apply. But the speed of reform does not match the speed with which the world – its technology and power dynamics – is changing.

At best Gowan argues the pact can provide a hook or staging post for UN reform, and for new issues such as AI to proceed at future summits. Miliband said the UN system could only be as good as its members. He said: “Fragmentation of political power around the world is producing gridlock at the apex of the international system: the UN security council.”

Will the Summit of the Future help the UN stop its

rot?

UN secretary-general António Guterres hopes the summit will better equip the faltering organization for new global challenges. But restoring faith in multilateralism may take longer

Richard Gowan

UN Director, International Crisis Group THE WORLD TODAY - 9 SEPTEMBER 2024

The United Nations often seems inadequate in an era of international mistrust: the Security Council has failed to respond meaningfully to the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan; scientists warn that there is little to no chance of states meeting the UN’s goals to limit global warming, agreed in 2015; and multilateral efforts to end extreme poverty are faltering.

On September 22 and 23, leaders will gather in New York for an event that is meant to stop the rot. The Summit of the Future, announced by António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, in 2021, is intended to face up to these challenges. Yet there is a risk that it will only highlight the limits to international cooperation.

Many non-western countries see the UN as weighted against their interests: Guterres is blunt in saying that existing UN institutions cannot manage 21st-century challenges. He has admitted international cooperation failed during the Covid pandemic, despite its global reach, as governments prioritized the protection of their citizens. He is also concerned that there are no real multilateral frameworks for managing new technologies such as AI. The secretary-general also believes many existing multilateral institutions are stuck in the past. The United States and Europeans continue to have excessive power in the Security Council and international financial institutions. Many non-western countries see the UN as weighted against their interests.

Multilateralism that works: The Summit of the Future is supposed to a be a moment when presidents and prime ministers address these problems head on. But as one senior diplomat involved in pre-summit negotiations noted, it has been hard to focus on innovation at the UN against the backdrop of rows over Gaza and Ukraine.

The summit’s Pact of the Future is supposed to be agreed by consensus among the UN’s 193 states – a very tall order: Instead, the diplomat observed, the priority has been to preserve the existing UN system – and to try to build up confidence among members that they can still work together. For all its faults, the UN does still sometimes strengthen international cooperation: last year, diplomats finalized a treaty on protecting biodiversity in the high seas. A successful conclusion to the Summit of the Future would be a further opportunity to show multilateralism can still work.

The summit’s centrepiece is a Pact for the Future, touching on virtually all aspects of multilateral cooperation. Negotiating the pact which Germany and Namibia have co-facilitated, has been tense with different blocs of states setting out competing priorities. It was finally agreed by consensus among the UN’s 193 member states

Push from the Global South: Developing countries have insisted the focus should be on international economic cooperation. Scores of UN members are now suffering from unsustainable debt, and a quarter of the UN’s members spend more on servicing the interest on their debt than they do on health and education. These struggling states naturally want the World Bank and IMF to give them improved financing. The US and European countries have acknowledged the problem. This is in part because they recognize the dangers associated with international debt, but also reflects their desire to win over members of the Global South in the struggle for influence with China and Russia.

Nonetheless, the US and its allies argue that the UN is not the right space to negotiate complex financial issues. They say the World Bank and IMF – where western powers still hold decisive shares of the votes – have a mandate to address these topics. A lot of diplomats from poorer states will be happy if world leaders make political commitments to sort out debt and development issues at the summit. But some hardliners, such as Pakistan, have argued that is not enough, and have even suggested cancelling the summit.

Rather than a celebration, 2030 may be a moment for sober reflection on what went wrong with the SDGs: Turning to peace and security issues, many UN members have argued that Security Council reform is essential in light of the body’s recent failures. India in particular has pushed hard to secure a permanent seat. But diplomats have not been able to find a formula to overhaul the UN’s main security institution, sapping the body’s credibility further as crises pile up on its agenda.

Another headache is nuclear disarmament. Many UN members have called on the nuclear powers to use the summit to recommit to shrinking their arsenals. Russia has vehemently dismissed the idea that the UN should take a lead on arms control, and the Pact of the Future will at best include some lowest common denominator references to disarmament and nuclear risk reduction.

Splits have also emerged over one of the secretary-general’s original priorities: multilateral cooperation around new technologies. The summit is meant to agree a Global Digital Compact covering cooperation on the internet and AI. The idea that the UN could help regulate these technologies is attractive to developing countries. But for those with advanced AI capabilities – most notably the US – it is less welcome. The Digital Compact will contain encouraging promises to harness technology for humanity, but few binding rules.

Another priority for Guterres will be a Declaration on Future Generations, a brief set of pledges by UN members to consider the long-term future of humanity when making policy decisions on issues like the use of natural resources. Negotiators frequently say that this will be ‘aspirational’, a euphemism for ‘vague’.

A case for the long view: This may sound like thin gruel when the UN is so clearly faltering. Yet it is also worth taking the long view. The various declarations may not reshape international cooperation, but they can create hooks for more substantive diplomacy over looming problems – be it AI or stewarding dwindling global resources as they grow more pressing.

There are precedents for UN commitments setting agendas that last decades. Current development spending targets, for example, are rooted in UN resolutions dating back to 1970. In the future, Guterres may get credit for sketching out areas for international cooperation that will evolve after he leaves office in 2026. Some UN insiders are already looking to 2030 as a possible date for a more serious set of reform discussions.

That is the year that the UN is meant to complete the implementation of its Sustainable Development Goals, an ambitious programme to slash poverty and safeguard the planet originally agreed in 2015.

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