Belarus Public Expenditure Review Enhancing Public Services in Times of Austerity
Volume 2
Report No. 74148-BY
Belarus Public Expenditure Review Enhancing Public Services in Times of Austerity Volume 2
February 21, 2013
CURRENCY AND EQUIVALENT UNITS
GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR
BoP BYR
Belarusian Ruble
NBRB
PER
Public Expenditure Review
ER PPP
Vice President
Philippe Le Houerou Qimiao Fan Yvonne Tsikata Benu Bidani Marina Bakanova
Contents
iii
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Figures
Other ECA Countries
iv
13
v
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Tables
Boxes
vi
Acknowledgements
vii
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Preface
viii
Executive Summary
Public
50
55
-13.2 10.0
50 45
5.0 30
MNE
BIH
40
21.3
BLR 2008
UKR
40
SRB
BLR 2010 ROU TUR MKD
MDA
16.5
35
20
BGR
KGZ 7.0
30 5.2
10 10.3 0.6
7.9
0
GEO
25 1.1
2011
CZE SVN
EST LTU
ALB
ARM
20 2008
SVK
HUN LVA HRV RUS POL
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Source: Note:
ix
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Macro-Fiscal Policies—Addressing Macro-Structural Challenges
53 51 49 47 45 43 41 39 37 35
x
Contrac!on
49.1
49.5 5 49.0
46.0 47.4 45.9
2008
48.0
47.7
49.2
46.6
47.6
3
46.0
45.9
43.4
2007 1 2011
41.6
2010
38.7 -1 2009 Counter-cyclical Expansion
Pro-cyclical
2003 Sources:
Pro-cyclical Expansion
7 Counter-cyclical 50.6
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
35.9 2011
-3 Contrac!on -7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
35
3,000
30
2,500
25
2,000
20 1,500 15 1,000 10 500
5 0
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 External
Source:
1
a.
b.
c.
d.
xi
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Strengthening Incentives of Sub-national Governments 2
in percent 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0
in percent
54
54 50
48
48
37
37
45
48
42 39
60 50
41 36
55
RUS
35
KAZ BLR
30
41
37
40
40
25 LVA
30 20
20 CZE
15 SRB
HUN
10 10 00 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
UKR POL
LTU
BIH 5
BGR
ROU
MKD
0
2011
0
10
20
30
40
Source:
Belarus maintains high levels of interregional equity 3,500 3,000
472
2,500 237 2,000
1,251
1,500
213
1,000
606
698
671
582
Rayons
Ci!es
807
500
103
0
Source:
xii
2011 100 35.4
80
32.5
28.2 47.9
60 31.4
37.2
32.5 40
25.8
non-tax revenues.
13.3 16.1
20 0
Consolidated subna!onal
Non-tax
20.9
9.8
Oblast
Rayon
City
Property taxes
Source:
14
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
58.2
52.5 54.8
60.6
48.2
48.6
14.1
16.6
20.1
17.5
Gomel
Average
Minsk
Vitebsk
70.4
29.4
17.8
28.0 13.5
3.0 Minsk City
Grodno
Mogilev
Brest
Source:
a.
xiii
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
b.
Simplify and apply the transfer formula to create more a predictable and transparent system of
c.
d.
Enhancing Spending Efficiency for Better Health Results
xiv
member states.
in percent 7 6 1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1 1.2
5
1.1
1.1
1.1 1.0
4 3 4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
2
4.5
4.1
4.5
4.2 3.5
1 0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
SVN HRV
SRB MDA
MNE POL EST MKD ROU HUN LTU LVA RUS UKR BGR BLR ALB KAZ GEO TUR ARM
KGZ TJK
0
2011
CZE
SVK
10,000
20,000
30,000
Source:
3
2010 Source:
2000
13.1 BLR
NOR
DEU
SWE
FIN
GBR
RUS
5.2
8.0 CZE CIS ave. 3.5 AUT
SVK
UKR
NLD
0
SWE GBR IRL ESP NOR PRT DNK ITA AUT SVN NLD OECD ave. GRC CHE EST FIN FRA SVK BEL CZE DEU CIS ave. UKR RUS BLR
2
7.2
4
FRA OECD 3.1 ave. MDA
6
EST
8
SVN
10
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
ESP
12
GRC
14
Nurses Source: OECD Health Data 2012, and WHO Health for All Database. Note: Data reported for 2010 or the latest year available. The latest year available for Belarus is 2009
xv
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
xvi
indicators.
needs to be accompanied by greater accountability for results
Enhancing Spending Efficiency for Better Education Results
xvii
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
AZE
LVA
BLR
LTU
SVN
KAZ
UKR
HUN
CZE
POL
MDA
UZB
BGR
SVK
MKD
ROU
TJK
KGZ
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
MDA KGZ SVN LVA EST POL LTU TUR HUN CZE UKR MKD BLR MNE SVK BGR KSV HRV KAZ RUS TJK SRB ROU ALB GEO ARM
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
2004 Source:
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2
4
6
8
10
12
Source:
4
a.
xviii
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
b.
c.
5
xix
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Time Frame Stabilizing Macro-Fiscal Policy
6
xx
Expected Impact
Chapter 1.
Fiscal Reforms: Addressing MacroStructural Challenges
Uncertain Environment
1
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
7
2004
2005
11.4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
10.2
0.2
7.7
13.3
10.1
3.8
11
-11.1
-3.8
-8.2
10
14.4
8
2.2
12.3
12.1
0.7
2011 108.7
2.2
2.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.8
2.1
1.8
1.3
0
-0.7
1.4
0.4
1.4
-0.7
-1.8
8.3
8.8
13.7
22.3
2.8 7.1
External
3.2 23.1
Source:
2
2.3 30.2
37
2,780
3,470
17.8
8
15
160
10
140
11.4 9.4
5
10.0
7.0
8.6
10.2 120
7.7 5.5
0.2
100
0 80 -5 60 -10
40
-15
20
-20 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12
Source:
3
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
9
53 51 49 47 45 43 41 39 37 35
4 50.6 49.1
2.8
3
48.0
47.7
49.0
46.0 47.4 45.9
49.5 49.2
46.6
2
1.4
47.6
46.0
45.9
0.0
0 41.6
38.7
-1 -2
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
35.9 2011
0.4 -0.7
-0.7 -1.8
-1.7
-3 2003
2004
2005
Sources:
Doing Business 2013
4
1.4
1
43.4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
10
Pro-cyclical Expansion
7 Counter-cyclical
5.3
2011
Contrac!on
2008 1.3
2010
5
2009 0.0 3 2.4
2008
2007 1 2011
0.6
2007
1.0
2006
2010
-1 2009
2005 0
1.1
Pro-cyclical
1
-3 Contrac!on -7
2
3
4
5
Sources:
6
Counter-cyclical Expansion
-5
-3
-1
1
3
Note:
11
10
11
5
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
12
Debt Repayment 35
3,000
30
2,500
25
2,000
20 1,500 15 1,000 10 500
5 0
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 External
Source:
12
6
55 50
BLR 2008
UKR
45 40
SRB
BLR 2010 ROU TUR MKD
MDA 35 30 GEO
25
CZE SVN
EST LTU
BGR
KGZ
SVK
HUN LVA HRV RUS POL
MNE
BIH
ALB
ARM
20 0
10,000
20,000
Belarus Bosnia & Herzegovina Slovenia Ukraine Hungary Serbia Czech Republic Estonia Croa!a Poland Moldova Russia Slovakia Romania Latvia Bulgaria 0
5
Center
South
30,000
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Source:
Box 1.
World
6
Europe
60
5
50
4
40
3
30
2
20
1
10 0
0 <25
25–40
40–55
>55
<25
25–40
40–55
>55
North
Western Europe 2007
EU12 EU cand. E. prtn.
AngloSaxon
Japan Emerging peers
2010
Source: Note:
policy outcomes. Sources:
Golden growth: restoring the luster of the European economic model
Fiscal Policy and Economic
.
7
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
50
50
-13.2 10.0
40
40 5.0
30
30
21.3 16.5
20
20 7.0 5.2
10 10.3
7.9
0.6 0
2011
Source:
13
8
8.2
1.5
2.4 5.1 3.9
1.8
5.2 5.3 1.5 4.6 3.5
1.1
10
1.1 2.1 0.9
12.5
11.8
2008
2011
1.1 0
2008
13
-13.2 12.7
8.7
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 9.4
2004
2004 2005
5.9
2005 2006
2006
10.1
8 8.5 7.3
2007
2007
8.4
6 5.0
4
2
0 2008
2008 2009
5.1
2009
2010
2010
2011
9.4 8.8
8.0
5.7 4.8 4.6
2011
Ukraine Slovakia Croa!a Russia Turkey Kyrgyz Rep. Albania Macedonia Hungary Slovenia Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria Lithuania Armenia Estonia Czech Rep. Latvia Moldova Belarus Romania Kazakhstan Poland Bosnia & Herz. Georgia Kosovo Tajikistan Azerbaijan
10 9.6
Albania Latvia Lithuania Azerbaijan Romania Tajikistan Poland Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Rep. Bulgaria Estonia Hungary Slovakia Moldova Bosnia & Herz. Georgia Macedonia Ukraine Slovenia Czech Rep. Serbia Croa!a Montenegro Kosovo Russia Belarus
12
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Source: 2011
2011
2008
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Source: 2008
9
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
2.0
R2=0.2918
14 SVK
12
1.8
10
1.6
POL
8
UKR
1.4
MDA
SRB BGR TUR CZE
EST LTU RUS
HRV
HUN ROU LVA BLR SVN
6 1.2
AZE
4
1.0
2
0.8
0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
ARM
0
5
10
15
Source:
Comparison Health Economic Belarus
4.6
Social
3.5
5.3
11.8
4.3
4.0
4.4
11.2
4.2
2.7
4.2
8.4
4.4
Source:
10
60
60
50
50
40
40
21.2 11.9
30
30
6.7 1.9
8.2 4.6 3.0
5.1 2.9 1.5
20
18.0
20
3.2 8.8 3.4
10.0 3.1 8.9 4.1
2008
2010
11.2
14.8
10
10 10.0
9.3
2008
2010
0
0
1.9 0.9
Excises
Source:
11
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40
55 54
54 50 48
48
48 45
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source:
period.
71.5 71.0 70.5 70.0 69.5 69.0 68.5 68.0 67.5 67.0 66.5
71.1
12
14.6
3,000
14.4 2,500
14.0 70.3 70.1
2,000
68.8 1,500 68.9
12.8 12.5
1,000 12.3
68.1 500 0
1985
Source:
14.6 70.7
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Other ECA Countries
Country
Public health system 48
72
Belarus
59
74
Russia 72 74 80
and health sectors are confronted with a number of structural challenges that will have to be addressed
72 82 Source: sector in 2010.
Further improving sector outcomes
13
Source:
14
14
Georgia
Austria
Slovenia
Latvia
Azerbaijan
40,000
Belarus
30,000
Lithuania
0
Hungary
20
Kazakhstan
40
Poland
60 20,000
Ukraine
80
Czech Rep.
100 10,000
Bulgaria
120 0
Moldova
50,000
Uzbekistan
70
Slovakia
74
Macedonia
76
Romania
80
Kyrgyz Rep.
86
Tajikistan
Belarus
40,000
Russia
Ukraine
30,000
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
Hungary
Czech Rep.
20,000
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
10,000
Latvia
Serbia
78
Estonia
0
Kyrgyz Rep.
Uzbekistan
Armenia
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
84 85
82 80
BLR 75
70
72 65 BLR
60 50,000
Source:
14
Overcoming Inefficiencies in Public Spending
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source:
world.
15
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
a.
b.
c.
d.
levels.
16
e.
17
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Chapter 2.
18
Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations: Strengthening Incentives of Subnational Governments
Oblasts and the City of Minsk
Primary level All 7
130
118
12
41,003
Source:
15
16 17
18
17
18
19
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
President
Council of Ministers
Central Government
Line Ministries
Oblast Tier
Base Tier
Primary Tier
Execu!ve Commi" ees of Oblasts and City of Minsk
Councils of Depu!es of Oblasts and City of Minsk
Execu!ve Commi" ees of Rayons and Oblast Subordinate Towns
Councils of Depu!es of Rayons and Oblast Subordinate Towns
Execu!ve Commi" ees of Rural Districts and Ray-on Subordinate Towns
Councils of Depu!es of Rural Districts and Ray-on Subordinate Towns
Local Government Source:
20
Local Self-Government
Ci!zens
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0
54
54 50
48
48
39
37
37
45
42
60
40 KAZ BLR
30
41
37
RUS
35
50 41
36
55
48
40
25 LVA 20
30
CZE
15
20
SRB
HUN
10 5
00 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
BGR
BIH
10
UKR POL
LTU
ROU
MKD
0
2011
0
10
20
30
40
Source:
19
20
20 3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
4.9
4.4
4.3
4.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
3.8
4.0
3.4
3.4
3.6
2.1
3.3
3.7
3.4
3.8
2007
2008
2009
2010
15
4.0
10
5
2.8 2.1
0 2011
Source:
20
21
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Level of Government Central
Primary
Source:
22
Regional (Oblastâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;)
Base (Rayons and
Primary
2007 Total
2008
2009
2010
2011
CG
SNG
CG
SNG
CG
SNG
CG
SNG
CG
SNG
53.3
46.7
55.3
44.7
54.2
45.8
47.4
52.6
44.7
55.3
1.0 100.0
0.0
34.7 14.2 20.3 100.0
14.3
13.4
14.0
33.3
84.1
0.0
0.3
71.0
40.0 37.8
4.0
0.7 78.4
22.0
78.0
43.1 74.4
74.8
40.8
42.2
24.1
22.0
47.4
34.7
78.0
74.0
81.1 18.0
82.0 31.4
Source: Note:
Sub-oblast Level
Oblast Total expenditures
20
Rayons 32
20
47
3.2 3.3
15
40
28 28
43
13
47
8
2.1
2.8
2.5
2.9
5.2
4.0
4.3
3.7
6.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.3
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
10
23 Source: Note:
3.0 2.1
2.6
17
2.8
5.0 5
0
27
Personnel
Source:
23
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
21
Belarus has maintained high levels of interregional 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Brest
22
21 22
24
Source:
Vitebsk
Gomel
Grodno
Minsk
Mogilev
Minsk city
Total
2,214
314
Health Care
and Culture
Other
0
87
243
1,321
2,218
0.18
0.34
0.32 110
311 1,071
0.12
234 740
3,101
1,142
178
170
0.27
0.14
Source:
3,500 3,000
472
5,000
2,500
4,000
237 2,000
1,251
1,500
213
1,000
606
698
671
582
Rayons
Ci!es
807
500
R2=0.4351
6,000
3,000 103 2,000 1,000
0
0 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Source:
25
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
23
2011 20
15
100 80
5.20
6.36
4.37
5.83
35.4
32.5
28.2 47.9
5.77 60
10
5
5.31
4.87
4.51
32.5
4.64 5.30
40 20
2.68 1.54 1.46
2.57 1.52 1.52
2.83 1.16 1.54
2.70 1.10 1.58
2.62 0.86 0.93
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
24,25 26
23
24
26
25.8 13.3
0
Source: Note:
31.4
37.2
16.1
Consolidated subna!onal
20.9
9.8
Oblast
Rayon
City
Consolidated
Sub-oblast
100
Rayons
Sub-rayon
Other
0
100
0
100
100
100
0
0
100
0
0
100
100
100
100
100
0
0
0
0
100
0
0
100 100
100
100 100
0
0
100
100
100
100
100
0
0
100
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
100 Source:
70.6
2011
29.4
72.6
2010
27.4
67.8
2009
32.2
59.7
40.3
2009
58.9
41.1
70.8
29.2
2008
2007
70.0
30.0
2007
20
40
60
80
100
67.6
2010
2008
0
32.4
2011
54.8
45.2
56.9 0
20
43.1 40
60
80
100
Source:
27
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Box 2.
revenues
Source:
Per capita revenue from own and shared revenues Revenue CIT PIT Property 27
Other taxes Small business tax 0 Source:
27
28
0.2
0.4
0.6
7,000
0.32
2.39
0.45
6,802
0.61 Coef. of varia!on 0.22
0.73
0.42
0.47
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000
2,040
1,807 1,288 633
1,000 322
162 21 Property tax
6
0 PIT
CIT
385 4 Small business tax
167 PIT
CIT
154 38 Property tax
386 83 Small business tax
Source:
76 79
4 12 14
1 11
3
Source:
29
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
28
29
6,000
0.44
0.33
0.06 5,370
Coef. of varia!on
0.31
0.24
0.19
5,453
Coef. of varia!on
0.25
0.19
0.12
5,441
5,000 4,609
4,563 4,000 3,000
3,243
2,998 2,486
3,153 2,352
2,000
2,218
2,080
1,768
1,664 1,000
1,175
900
762
557 0 Locally derived revenues Source:
28
30
Plus VAT
Plus other grants
Locally derived revenues
Plus VAT
Plus other grants
Locally derived revenues
Plus VAT
Plus other grants
Figure 43 Capital Grants Finance a Growing Share of
4
3
Increasing capital grants have helped to maintain SNG
2
1
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source:
30
30
31
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
2009-2010
2011
2012
Source:
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2007 Source:
32
2008
2009
2010
2011
Figure 45 Many SNGs Exceed Debt Rules 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
60 50 58.2
52.5 54.8 48.2
70.4
60.6
40 30
48.6
57
20 31 29.4
17.8 14.1
16.6
20.1
17.5
28.0
13
13.5
3.0 Minsk City
25
10
3
1
<2.5
<3.0
0 Gomel
Average
Minsk
Vitebsk
Grodno
Mogilev
<0.3
Brest
<0.5
<0.8
<1.5
Source:
0.0
0.04
1.1
1.0
0.0
0.1
34.2 1.8
indirect debt in seventeen rayons and sub-oblast
1.3
Source:
-0.017
Guaranteed
Total
-0.143***
-0.184** 33.421**
Brest -33.112 -101.831*** 384.887** 130 0.444
0.427
Source: Note: expenditures.
33
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
a.
b.
34
First,
c.
d.
35
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Chapter 3.
Health Financing: Enhancing Spending Efficiency for Better Health Results
Structure
36
31
32
33
President Other Line Ministries
Council of Ministers
Execu!ve Commi" ees of Rayons and Towns
Execu!ve Commi" ees of Oblasts
Ministry of Health
Health Care Department
Financial Department
High- tech and specialized hospitals
Inpa!ent and outpa!ent health care facili!es
Central polyclinics and hospitals of oblasts (in charge of central hospitals, emergency care hospitals, FAPs and other outpa!ent facili!es)
Central polyclinics of towns and rayons (in charge of central hospitals, emergency care sta!ons, FAPs and other outpa!ent facili!es)
Central hospitals of rayons (including emergency unit, outpa!ent unit, FAPs, etc)
Private health facili!es
Financial Department management
HEALTH SECTOR
funding flows
Source: 2012.
31 32 33
37
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
34
Private Funding
State Budget
Out of Pocket Expenditures
Sources of Financing
Source:
34
38
Financing Agents
Providers
Households 20.3%
General Hospitals 32.4%
Ministry of Health 12.6%
Specialized Hospitals 14.4%
Other Line Ministries 2.8%
Total Health Financing 5.2% GDP
Ambulatory Centers and Polyclinics 30.9%
Regional Governments 61.3%
Rehabilita!on/Long Term Care Ins!tu!ons 1%
Firms 2.3%
Providers/Managers of Public Health Programs 2.2%
Insurance 0.2%
Retailers and Other Suppliers of Medicines 14.7%
35
36
39
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Maternal Mortality Rate, 2009
Under 5 Mortality Rate, 2010
Life Expectancy at Birth 2009
Male 71
Adult Mortality, 2009*
Female
Male
33
70
432
38
70
327
Age TB Incidence HIV Prevalence GNI per Standardized 2010 Per 2009 Per Capita PPP Adult 100,000 Pop. 100,000 Pop. Current US$ Mortality Rate**
Female 11,310 243
183 43 Russian
Belarus Belarus 1990
70
427
221
134
110 101
32
13
74
148
34
12
74
144
28
71
41
73
4
6
30
20
37
17
34
10
27
18
8
7
20
13
64
220
76
324
74 66
131
75
282
77
284
Estonia
2
Poland 4 4
41 7,080
128
103
134
401
182
338
117
446
70
172
14,560
103
378
73
107
n/a
80
48***
4,640
22
107 88 134
73
234
77
80 80
74
80
138
83
74
3
312
77
70
81 17,820
14
274
72
3,440
43
72 72
2,310
37 28
17,340 20,830
23
70
20,480 24,280
47
88
42,200
Source: Note: * ** *** Year 2000.
90
15
80
10 5
70 BLR 60
0
50
-5
40 0
20
40
60
80
100
-10 1990
1996
Natality rate Source:
40
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Number of deaths
Percentage 16 14 12 10
3,404
2.77
3,331
2.71
6
2.4
4
2.27
2
2,784
0
2.12
SVN POL ALB HRV CZE HUN SVK MKD ARM EST BGR TJK LVA LTU ROU BLR MDA GEO KGZ UKR RUS AZE UZB KAZ TKM
8
Source:
2,413 2,404 1,848 Source:
73
2 6 37
0
1 18
Source:
37
41
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
50
25 GEO
40
20
GEO
UKR 30
15
AZE
20
RUS BYR
10
BGR
10
TJK
MDA ARM
AZE UKR ARM
SRB
5
RUS
EU15
EU15
0 10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
80
10
20
TJK
MDA
SRB
BYR
0 0
BGR 30
40
50
60
70
Source:
2010, in percent 35
2.5
16 14
30 2.0
12
25 20
1.5
15
1.0
10 8
10
6 4
0.5 5
2
0
0 Poor
2
3
4
Rich
0 Poor
2 >10
Source:
42
3
4
Rich
80
0 0.2
2010
0.4 0.6 0.8
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
UKR ALB MKD AZE MNG KGZ KAZ BIH TJK ROU RUS BLR HUN MNE SRB ARM BGR POL UZB LTU SVK CZE MDA SVN HRV LVA GEO EST TUR
EST GEO POL SVN CZE LVA MKD MNE BGR HRV TUR KAZ RUS MNG UZB BLR BIH LTU SVK SRB ARM ALB TJK HUN UKR ROU MDA KGZ AZE
10
8 38
6
4
2
0 1 39
Source:
payments.40
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Source:
2010
38
40
43
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
41
42
7 6 1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1 1.2
5
1.1
1.1
1.1 1.0
4 3 4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
2
4.5
4.1
4.5
4.2 3.5
1 0 2003 Source:
41 42
44
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
SVK
CZE SVN
SRB
HRV
MDA
KGZ TJK
0
MNE POL EST MKD ROU HUN LTU UKR LVA RUS BGR BLR ALB KAZ GEO TUR ARM
10,000
20,000
30,000
Figure 57 A Large Share of Public Funding Is Channeled Through SNGs
55,4
22
Recurrent spending absorbs the largest share of
22,6
Source:
100
100 14
16
19
17
15
13
13
30
30
80
22.0
16.2
8.4
7.1
6.2
5.5
5.0
34.5
33.0
33.9
34.0
31.7
80 32
28
60
29
32
33
48
48
49
54
2007
2008
2009
2010
31.5 60
40
33.1
40 51
52
20
54 20
0
0 2005
2006
2011
59.9
60.0
60.0
63.3
52.2
57.2
44.9
City of Minsk
Region of Brest
Region of Minsk
Region of Mogilev
Region of Grodno
Region of Gomel
Region of Vitebsk
Non-personnel recurrent
Personnel
Source: Note:
45
0
Source:
43
46 2
2010 2000 Nurses
FRA OECD 3.1 ave. MDA
SVK
FIN
BLR
NOR
SWE
DEU
GBR
5.2
CZE CIS ave. 3.5 AUT RUS
4
UKR
6
8.0
7.2
13.1
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
NLD
8
EST
10
SVN
12
GRC
14
ESP
SWE GBR IRL ESP NOR PRT DNK ITA AUT SVN NLD OECD ave. GRC CHE EST FIN FRA SVK BEL CZE DEU CIS ave. UKR RUS BLR
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
43
.
1.0 1.5
0.4 0.5 1.0
36.3
33.2 2.2 4.5
2.1 2.5 3.8
8.3
14.0 13.0 21.3
24.2 15.2
15.1 Polyclinics
Source:
16
29
30 25
14
11
10 8
7
21 16
15
6
10
12
12 20
4 5
0
TUR DNK SWE NLD PRT IRL SVN AUT ITA ESP EST GRC OECD ave. CZE SVK GBR BEL DEU CHE MDA BLR FIN CIS ave. KAZ UKR RUS
2
SPA NLD ITA IRE GBR OECD ave. SVN KAZ SWE EST DNK BEL MDA FIN CZE GRC CIS ave. SVK UKR DEU AUT BLR
0
Source:
This extensive reliance on hospitals as providers of 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
4.7 13.3
8.1
5.4
17.5
10.7 10.6
89.3 69.5
63.5
General Hospitals
Specialized Hospitals
Polyclinics
Source:
47
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
in percent 25
80
18
70
16
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
4
0
2
70.8 20
66.5
62.8
56.6 49.2
44.7
15
21
10 5 0
Source:
48
10 Region of Mogilev
10
Region of Brest
12
Region of Grodno
12
Region of Gomel
14
Region of Minsk
Region of Vitebsk
Gomel oblast
Mogilev oblast
Brest oblast
Minsk city
Grodno oblast
Minsk oblast
Vitebsk oblast
44
care expenditures.45
Spending Pressure
Time Horizon
Source:
44
Economics Department, WP No. 447.
49
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
The Belarus health system faces the challenge of further improving health outcomes and maintaining high
a.
b.
50
46
c. progressively more autonomous.
d.
indicators. e. 47
country.
47
51
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
• Prices may be based on average
•
•
•
needs to be accompanied by greater accountability for results
52
53
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Chapter 4.
Education Financing: Enhancing Spending Efficiency for Better Education Results
secondary,48
48
54
in Belarus, 2010 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
1,000 962 800 600 443
400
384 200 168
500 0
106 0 Pre-school
GSE
VTE
SS
HE
Source:
49
President Line Ministries
Council of Ministers
Execu!ve Commi" ees of Rayons and Oblast Subordinate Towns
Execu!ve Commi" ees of Oblasts
Ministry of Educa!on
•Universi!es, post-graduate educa!on ins!tu!ons •Secondary specialized schools
•Universi!es, post-graduate educa!on ins!tu!ons •Secondary specialized schools
•Voca!onal schools •Secondary specialized schools
•Private educa!on ins!tu!ons (mostly universi!es)
Educa!on Department
Financial Department
Educa!on Department
•Preschool •General secondary schools
Financial Department management
EDUCATION SECTOR
funding flows
Source: Note:
55
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
50
•
51
•
Gross enrollment in general secondary schools increased 52
•
56
Between 2000
Higher
Year
Secondary specialized
2000
school
General secondary (upper secondary)
General basic (lower secondary)
General primary
38.2
7.0
0.4
100
30.0
0.0
0.0
100
21.4
0.0
0.0
100
23.4
3.4
0.0
100
27.4
Rural
14.7 2010
28.4
17.2
2000
32.2
3.1 2010
33.7
2000 Poor 2010
0.0
33.7
18.2
10.4
11.4
2000
34.3
2010 2000
47.1
17.7
48.3
28.0 2.0
17.0
23.3 31.1
2010
Total
0.0
0.2
100
0.1
0.0
100
0.4
100
0.0
0.0
100
0.0
0.0
100
0.0
0.0
100
10.3
1.7
0.0
0.0
100
10.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
100
21.8
24.0
4.3
0.1
100
4.2
0.0
0.1
100
0.1
0.0
100
Source:
â&#x20AC;˘ in Europe.53 54
â&#x20AC;˘
55
57
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
7
30
6
25
5
20
4 15 3
0
0
Source:
Source:
•
• Quality and relevance. 56
needs. • Mismatch in the demand and supply of skills. 57,58
secondary level.
58
West. Europe
5
BIH ALB GEO TJK BGR KAZ TUR KGZ KSV AZE RUS BLR MNE EST MDA HUN ARM POL UKR ROU SRB HRV SVK LTU
1
UKR UZB MDA ALB SVK ARM MNG KAZ TUR RUS BIH BLR ROU HRV MKD CZE BGR SRB MNE HUN GEO SVN LTU POL EST LVA
10
2
Belarus 0–10
10–20
20–30
30–40
40–50
50–60
60–70
70–80
80–90
Source: Note:
59
• 60 61
62
59
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
30 25 20 15 10 5
KAZ MDA KSV TJK KGZ EST TUR LTU LVA MKD POL UKR SVN BLR ARM ALB BGR CZE HUN GEO SVK MNE HRV RUS ROU SRB
MDA KGZ SVN LVA EST POL LTU TUR HUN CZE UKR MKD BLR MNE SVK BGR KSV HRV KAZ RUS TJK SRB ROU ALB GEO ARM
0
Source:
14
25
12
20
10
15
8
10
6
5
4
0
2
-5
0
-10
23.5 15.5 12.7 7.8 5.6
4.3
-8.9 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source:
Source:
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005
Source:
60
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 Source:
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
63
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Pre-school GSE VTE SS Higher and postgraduate Other 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
20
40
60
80
100
Source: Note:
61
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
90
120
85
100
80
80
75
60
70
40
65
20
60
0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Russia
Belarus
Ukraine
Poland
Hungary
Estonia
Czech Rep.
Source:
64
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 0 Source: Note:
65
62
200
400
600
800
1,000
For example,
Box 4.
• • • • • • • • • • •
63
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Rural Source:
130
110
90
70
50 1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
200 175 180 160 135 140 129 124 126 120 110 111 100 87 89 80 68 59 57 54 60 43 46 38 49 40 29 20 0 1992 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Source:
66
64
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -1.5
88
84
59 51
52 37
0 -1.0
-0.5
0
0.5
1.0
Brest oblast Source: Note:
2004
AZE
LVA
BLR
LTU
KAZ
SVN
UKR
HUN
CZE
POL
TJK
LVA
POL
HUN
LTA
AZE
BLR
SVK
UKR
ROU
MDA
KAZ
MKD
UZB
SVN
BGR
CZE
RUS
TJK
ARM
KGZ
0
MDA
5
UZB
10
BGR
15
SVK
20
MKD
25
KGZ
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
ROU
30
2004
Source:
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
12 22.6
10 60.4 8 6
77.4
4
65 39.6
2 0
Students Rural
35
Teachers
Schools
STR
Urban
Rural
Brest oblast Belarus
Source:
65
0
70
66 EST
POL
HRV
UKR
HUN
GEO
BLR
SVN
SVK
MDA
RUS
15
LVA
25
BGR
30
LTU
40
ROU
West. Europe
CHN CHL PRK JPN ISR IDN ARG TUR BRA GBR IRL AUS USA FRA DEU ESP HUN PRT BEL CZE MEX FIN CHE DNK AUT ITA POL SVN SVK EST ISL GRC RUS BLR
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
35 500
400
20 300
10 200
5 100
0
Source:
Notes:
67
68
69
70
10,000
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2
4
6
8
10
12
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
30 6,114 th.BYR 25
6,165 th.BYR
20
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
15 500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Source:
71
71
67
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Box 5. 72
Country
Latvia
Base year
2010
a.
73
computers. b.
c.
72 73
68
Estonia
Bulgaria
Romania
Input-based system
student increases
need most
student
areas
same amount per student
• • • •
spent Source:
69
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
Box 6 Pilot on Per-Student Financing in Belarus
Impact monitoring:
accountants.
70
List of References
270.
71
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
business-2013
72
Annexes ANNEX 1. Billions BYR Revenue Personal income tax
2005
2006
2007
2008
23,420 1,882 2,377
2,480 3,141
3,081 3,837
4,183
2009
2010
2011
12,083 Excises Property tax 23,821
37,240 7,481 2,041 7,003 387 10,137
1,473
2,347 742
203 Revenue Expenditure
2,471 1,111 13,710 437
423
11,422 18,377 1,300
1,720 Revenue Expenditure
2,073
48,147 71,348 1,038 242
132 137,442
2005
2006
3.7
3.1 4.0
Revenue Personal income tax
Excises Property tax
2.1 1.8
2007 37.8 3.2
3.1
2008
3.2 4.7 8.8 3.0
2009 34.0 3.1 3.4 8.8 1.2
2010
3.3 3.4 10.0 2.7 1.1
2011 28.8 3.1
8.2 8.1 2.3 7.7 0.4
8.2 2.3 7.2 0.4 8.4
38.3 7.7 2.1 7.2 0.4 10.4
7.1 1.8
1.8 0.8 11.7
1.7 0.7 8.4
1.1 7.3
73
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
8.3 0.3 Revenue Expenditure
Revenue Expenditure
11.4 10.4 1.0
11.7 10.7 1.0
47.4 47.0 0.41
48.3 47.0 1.31 0.30
11.8 10.7 1.1
10.1 2.0
8.1 0.3
8.4
11.4 10.1 1.3
11.8 10.7 1.1
12.1 11.3 0.8
10.0
42.0 43.8
38.7
1.44 0.10
ANNEX 2. Grant Formula Adopted by the Ministry of Finance
• • • • •
in locality
74
0.7
2.8 2.1 137,442,
Source:
0.1
• •
•
• •
75
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
ANNEX 3. Incidence and Intensity of Catastrophic Health Payments Threshold share of total household expenditure 5% 10% 15% 25%
40%
8.0 0.083**
2.1 0.173**
0.7
0.2
0.0 0^
11.1
2.4 -0.144***
0.7 -0.233***
0.0
0.0 0^
5%
10%
15%
25%
40%
27.0
0.8 -0.072 7.1 -0.200
-0.102 3.1 -0.238
0.8
0.1 -0.302
Source:
Shares of Total Expenditure Spent on Health Services
2 3 4
Share of capita
Share of expenditures on taxes and social insurance
8.3 13.2 17.3 22.8
14.2
OOP expenditures for health care
13.4 17.3 20.3
21.2 42.1
0.3011*** 0.3407***
2 3 4
13.8
8.7 12.8 14.8 24.1
22.3
0.2737*** 0.23011*** Source:
76
Indicator
health payments
health payments
Change
Percentage change
43.1 3 732.4 12.4
13.0
2.4 0.4
0.42
0.03
Source: *Note:
ANNEX 4.
Source:
77
KGZ AZE KAZ ALB MNE BGR ROU SRB RUS TUR LTU CZE HRV SVK SVN LVA HUN POL EST MEX CHL AUT ISR LUX GRC ITA FRA ESP DEU GBR BEL PRT USA SWE IRL ISL CHE DNK NOR NZL NLD AUT JPN CAN FIN KOR PAN PER QAT IDN ARG TUN BRA JOR COL TTO THA URY ARE LIE TWN MAC SGP HKG CHN
BELARUS PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
ANNEX 5.
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Source: Note:
ECA
78 OECD, non-ECA Others