POLAND: SAVING FOR GROWTH AND PROSPEROUS AGING CHALLENGES AHEAD
MACRO TO SUSTAIN STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH GIVEN RECENT ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN AND CHALLENGES AHEAD: PRODUCTIVITY
MICRO TO SUSTAIN DECENT LIVING STANDARDS FOR A GROWING GROUP OF PENSIONERS AND PROTECT THEM FROM POVERTY
LOWER GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVITY (TFP) AGING
POPULATION AGING FINANCING
TIGHTER FINANCING CONDITIONS NEED TO INCREASE SAVING: SAVING RATE, % OF GDP
40%
GROSS REPLACEMENT RATE AT RETIREMENT (FROM PUBLIC PENSIONS), %
35%
60%
30%
50% 40%
25%
30%
20%
20%
15%
10%
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
0%
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
ALTERNATIVE WAKER TFPGROWTH BASELIN STRONG TFP GROWTH
TO SUSTAIN PER-CAPITA ECONOMIC GROWTH AT 3.5 % ANNUALLY NATIONAL SAVING RATE NEEDS TO INCREASE FROM BELOW 18% TO REACH 23% IN 2030
TO GUARANTEE CURRENT REPLACEMENT RATES WORKING COHORTS AGED
20–50
WILL HAVE TO SAVE ABOUT
10%
OF THEIR ANNUAL EARNINGS
(STRONG TFP GROWTH ASSUMED)
RECOMMENDATIONS:
POLICIES TO BUILD UP THE LOCAL-CURRENCY CAPITAL MARKET
POLICIES TO LIMIT GOVERNMENT DIS-SAVING
POLICIES TO ENCOURAGE HOUSEHOLDS TO SAVE
POLICIES TO SUPPORT INCOMES AND GROWTH
POLICIES TO SUBSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN SAVINGS