Lo w- an d Mi d dle -In com e C o untr ies , C a rbon Em issi ons, and T ra de
levels, increasing globally to 17 percent (US$1.90–US$3.20 PPP per day) by 2040 from only 9.2 percent in 2017. The reduction in poverty is most significant under a free-trade scenario—dropping to 2 percent (US$3.20–US$5.50 PPP per day) (Hu et al. 2021).
Examining agriculture as one of the main trade-related sectors affecting emissions from the developing world The export structure of most low- and middle-income countries is based on agriculture, signaling agriculture’s critical importance for jobs, income, poverty reduction, and government revenue. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that land-use change—for example, conversion of forest into agricultural land—adds a net 1.6 ± 0.8 gigaton of carbon per year to the atmosphere, which is similar to a quarter of emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (Watson et al. 2000). The expansion of large-scale commercial agriculture is often viewed as the culprit, but the collective emissions from subsistence farmers and outgrowers6 also contribute significantly. Moreover, while agriculture exacerbates climate change (through deforestation and in other ways), it also suffers from the adverse effects of climate change—among others, growing water scarcity. This section examines the problem and provides suggestions on how trade can help to increase agricultural output sustainably while reducing land-use change.
Impact of trade on land-use change and emissions, especially in low-income African countries Since the advent of agriculture, natural forests and habitats have been cleared to engage in crop and animal production, but these changes in land use are contributing to growing emissions. In more recent periods, clearing for industrial activities has also played a role, but not at commensurate levels. The United Nations Climate Change Secretariat defines land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF), also referred to as forestry and other land use, as “a greenhouse gas inventory sector that covers emissions and removals of GHGs [greenhouse gases] resulting from direct human-induced land use such as settlements and commercial uses, land-use change, and forestry activities.”7 The impacts of LULUCF on climate are direct—changing the global carbon cycle. LULUCF activities either add CO2 to the atmosphere or remove it, thus bringing about changes in biodiversity and climate patterns. Since international trade involves mainly commodities produced where resources are most abundant, several countries clear forests to enable productive activities destined for export. On average, the harvest of one-fifth of global cropland area was destined for export in the 2000s, and almost all growth in cropland area was for internationally traded crops (Kastner, Erb, and Haberl 2014). Demand for the final and intermediate products made with forest-risk commodities is global, but production and associated land-use change are geographically decoupled from the associated demand (Henders, Persson, and Kastner 2015). Commodities whose production entails deforestation vary between regions and countries; in the case of Africa, they are largely livestock meat and some cereals. Specifically, production of cattle meat contributes just over a quarter, and the remainder is from the production of a diverse mix of other cereals, roots and tubers, pulses, and other oilseeds (Pendrill et al. 2019). In Latin America, the production of cattle
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