4.11 Oil and metal price shocks

COMMODITY MARKETS CHAPTER 4 239

FIGURE 4.11 Oil and metal price shocks

Large oil and metal price jumps often occurred in the years before global recessions and slowdowns, and in the years following them when global recoveries were under way. Metal price shocks were typically more frequent, but smaller, than oil price shocks.

A. Oil price jumps B. Oil price collapses

C. Metal price jumps

D. Metal price collapses

E. Number of metal and oil price shocks F. Magnitude of metal and oil price shocks

Sources: World Bank Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet) database; World Bank. Note. A price jump is an increase of one standard deviation over a six-month period; a price collapse is a decline of one standard deviation over a six-month period. Shaded areas indicate period of global recessions (1975,1982, 1991, 2009, 2020) or slowdowns (1998,2001,2012). F. The bars represent the absolute average trough-to-peak or peak-to-trough price change for price jumps and collapses. Price collapses are shown as absolute averages, so 50 percent indicates a 50 percent fall in prices. RHS = right-hand side.