the targeting formula used to determine eligibility assigns lower scores for every member absent from the households not for military service 10. In addition, Armenian migrants would not be eligible to unemployment benefits and other earning-related social insurance benefits in Armenia.
4. Vulnerability of Armenian migrants in Russia During the COVID-19 pandemic, Armenian workers in Russia are likely to be in precarious situations, as the Russian economy contracts. As of mid-June, Russia starts to experience, as other European countries, a decline in new COVID-19 cases and Moscow is easing containment measures amid strong economic blow from measures to control the spread of COVID-19 and from falling oil prices (see Figure 3 on the timeline of containment measures). Russia’ GDP fell by 12 percent during the first four months of 2020, compared to the same period of 2019 according to the Ministry of Economic Development. Its GDP growth is projected to fall by – 6 percent (World Bank, 2020a). While economic activities are resuming and people mobility returns to an early March level (Figure 4.a), activities in workplaces are yet to resume to the January level (based on people mobility in workplaces, Figure 4.b) and downside risks remain because of second or third waves of infections. Figure 3. Number of COVID-19 cases in Russia and timeline of containment measures in Moscow
Source: Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Russia#Statistics
The international migration literature suggests that, while migration occurs in lower income households, international labor migration is costly and therefore the bottom poor is less likely to be part of it, owing to their financial constraints. 10
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