Market Insights 1.qxp_MARKET INSIGHTS 27/10/2021 11:17 Page 1
MARKET INSIGHTS
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RENÉ ARMAS MAES is Vice President Commercial at Jet Link International LLC, an international aviation consultancy. He has built a successful track record for delivering Business Aviation consulting projects for Fortune 500 companies, Venture Capital firms, and HNWIs in North America, the Middle East, Europe and Latin America. His expertise includes corporate travel assessments, business aircraft analysis, aircraft financing and sales.
BizJet Sales Outlook: What do the Current Trends Imply? What are the trends in new and pre-owned business jet sales in 2021, and how do these compare with pre-Covid? René Armas Maes reviews the vital statistics to gauge the pulse of the industry… rom 2017 to 2019, the top five business jet Original Equipment Manufacturers (Bombardier, Dassault, Embraer, Gulfstream, and Textron) delivered an average of 606 aircraft between them, annually. In 2020, they delivered 493 business jets (19% fewer). This year, I predict the top five OEMs will deliver between 523 and 544 jets, which would be between 6% to 10% higher than in 2020, but still 10% to 14% below the 2017-2019 average. In reality, a comparison with the pre-pandemic years is much more meaningful, and the two industry players who will be closest to matching their delivery averages of 2017-2019 are likely to be Gulfstream and Embraer (see Chart A, overleaf). Moreover, I predict an uptick in Light Jet deliveries to benefit Textron and Embraer, while the Mid-size and Super Mid-size Jet segment will largely benefit Bombardier (Challenger 350) as it continues to see strong
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retail and fleet deliveries in the Super Mid-Size Jet segment. However, if Embraer wishes to seize a larger market share, it will need to further penetrate the Super Mid-Size Jet (Praetor 500) and Large Cabin Jet (Praetor 600) segments. The majority of the Large Jet market penetration is likely to come from Bombardier and Gulfstream, with Dassault expected to also enjoy a larger share in the next two to four years as it introduces, and ramps-up, production of its new Falcon 6X and Falcon 10X products. In order to meet my year-end conservative aircraft delivery forecast of 523 units, the top five OEMs will need to deliver a total of 308 business jets in the second half of (H2) 2021, or 1.4 times more units than they did in H1. Thus, Gulfstream must deliver 71 aircraft (59% more) in H2 2021, while Textron, Bombardier, Embraer and Dassault need to deliver 91, 64, 63 and 19 jets, respectively.
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