РОССИЙСКАЯ ФЕДЕРАЦИЯ
О создании в России государственной зерноторговой компании Вопросы и варианты выбора Доклад Всемирного банка Информационный центр в России
сельское хозяйство
: 45925 - RU
2009
(
2009 .)
1
1 1
. 1
= . = 0,03 = 30,07
–
31
( . .
.)
-
: : : :
-
- ii -
. (
,
,
)
(
, )
(
),
(
)
(
) ( ).
(
,
,
, (
),
,
,
)
( ,
(
) ,
,
). ,
( (
) ,
). . , 2009 2009
. .
, , . (mgrueninger@worldbank.org).
- iii -
,
........................................................................................................................vi ...................................................................................................................................................... vii –
...................1
A.
..........................5 ........................................................................................................................... 5 .............................................................................. 10 ................................................................................................................................................. 11 ,
................................................................................................ 11 12 13
1) 2)
..................................................................... 15
.
.............................................................................................................17 ............................................................ 17 17 22
1) 2) :
.............................................. 25
B.
.........................................28 .................................................................................................. 28 ................................................. 36 36 ? 40
?
1) 2) 3) ? (
4) 5)
)?
41 42 ? 43
......................................................................................................................................................45 1: –
................................................49
- iv -
1: /
– 1990-2008 . ......................................................................................................... 2
2: ............................................................................................. 6 3: .............................................................................................................................. 9 4:
– 1992-1993
. – 2007-2008
.... 29
5: – 1992-2007
1:
.
2017 ................................. 37
:
................................... 28
2:
, 2007-2008
3: 4: 5:
................ 31
, 2007-2008
........... 32
, 2007-2008 .................................................................................................... 34 ........................................................................... 35
-v-
-
-
(
- vi -
)
1.
. «
, »(
,
)
,
.
, , ,
,
, , .
,
, . ,
,
,
,
: , , . 2008
2.
(
), , – «
(
20
). . (
)
19 25
» 2009 33
, .
»)
(« . ,
, 25
,
75 ,
. 3. .
– – ,
, .
4.
, :
; , - vii -
; ,
, . ,
, . ,
5. . , . 1
,
75
125
,
, 2020
. 2009 13 25 25 ,
:
.
,
, ,
, .
, , .
300-400
,
. ,
.
,
6. , ,
,
, .
,
. , 2007-2008
.,
,
.
, ,
.
,
(«
,
»),
,
,
.
, ,
(
,
, ,
).
7. , 1
2005-2007 -
100
. .
2008 . (http://webnet.oecd.org/wbos/)
- viii -
(2009 .).
.
, ( ) .
( ) ( 8.
).
, , , .
, ,
, . (
) . .
,
, ,
.
, ,
, . ,
,
, ,
,
. , ,
,
,
. , . 9. .
, . ,
, (
, ) ,
.
, .
, , .
8.
, , (
, )
(
,
, ,
. - ix -
,
. ),
, .
,
.
,
, , ,
. .
, ,
.
,
,
,
,
.
9. , ,
(
)
, . ,
, .
, ,
,
6
.
,
75 (
.
,
)
«
»
,
«
, ,
». ,
.
, , .
,
, ,
,
,
.
, ,
,
, . ,
,
,
,
.
10. , , ,
.
,
2007-2008
, .
, , -x-
,
:
,
-
, , -
,
.
, ,
,
. , ,
, . .
,
, .
,
, ,
. ,
, . ,
,
(
XI,
,
2). ,
11. ,
(
) .
, , , .
,
, , .
,
,
,
,
,
, 2005-2007 ( .
. 1,83
. /
),
1995-1997 . 3,47 . /
. .
6,6
12. . . , (
)
. ,
, ,
. - xi -
,
, 2008
.
, , ,
, , ,
, .
- xii -
– 2008
1.
(
),
,
,
– « »(
).
, . , 2008
.
, – .2
: ( ) (
)
;
,
( )
, ; ( ) ( )
, ;
, . 33 (
)
( 19 25
), . »)
(« . ,
, 25
,
,
75 .
2.
, , .3 ,
,
, ,
,
(
2008 ,
, 1).
(
, von Witzke et al., 2008 .)
, 2
( , (
3
Mitchell (2008)
)
;
. Trostle (2008) 2002 .
,
-1-
),
,
, . 1:
.
– 1990-2008 /
: / . 2008 . –
#2
.
.
3. 350
,
300 250
Price ($/t)
, .
200
150
4 100
, 50 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
,
. ,
4.
, (
(
,
).
)
.
, ( ,
(
)
.).
, 2001
, (
-
,
)
,
, .
5. ,
, 1994 .
, XVII
4
«
» . ».
-2-
,
«[ ]
: «
,
,
,
, ».
6. «
»( ).
,
, ,
.
, . ,
, ( ),
,
,
.5 . ; –
,
–
,
. , , , , . 7.
, , . , , .
,
, ,
,
,
,
. .
, ,
».6
« , ,
( . . , 5
,
AgraFood East Europe (August 28, 2008): Russia may slash US meat imports. AgraFood East-Europe Weekly, Issue No. 337. 6 .: Russia-IC (June 21, 2007): Russia suggested forming „grain OPEC“, http://www.russiaic.com/news/show/4190/; RIA Novosti (August 24, 2007): Ukraine, Kazakhstan backe ‚grain OPEC‘ idea – Russian Minister, http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070824/74207548.html; and Web-portal of Ukrainian Government (May 6, 2008): Russia offers Ukraine to set up „grain OPEC“, http://www.kmu.gov.ua/control/en/publish/article?art_id=130406387&cat_id=2291893.
-3-
7
), . 10.
, . . : • ; •
,
;
• . 11. ,
-
. ,
,
,
. . 2003-2004 , ,
, -
,
.
, ,
, .
,
( . . ).
, , .
7
«
, (
), » (Kostecki, 1982).
-4-
,
12.
( (
,
) ,
)
: •
,
•
(
);
,
,
; • . ,
13. . . , 2)
: 1)
,
, , .
,
3)
, (
)
(
) ,
, . (
14. ) (
)
. «
», . . .
,
, ,
(
, ,
),
, (
.
)
,
,
. ,
(
)
(
)
, , ,
, .
-5-
,
.
, (
, , . .
)
)
(
,
(
).
2
15.
. ,
Qc P c.
.
,
,
Qc, ,
, . , ,
Qc.
Qc,
,
, . ,
Qc. 2:
; Demand ; Quantity -
Price -
; Supply -
16. Qm Pm. ,
. Qc
,
,
Qm
Qm,
Pc
, Pm.
.8
, 8
, ,
Pm
«
Qm
)
»
(
2. (
). B, .
,
, .
-6-
17. .
-
,
, . : ,
. ;
,
-
,
(Qc – Qm)
,
, . 18.
-
, ,
.
2 .
, , 2.
(A – B)
« (A – B) .
,
19.
(Pm),
,
». ,
,
,
. , ,
, ,
, .
. , . . ,
.
;
,
. ,
20. . ,
, , . /
,
. . . ( -7-
),
, «
. ,
», ,
. , . .
,
,
,
, .
, . 21. (
,
), , , , /
. ,
, ,
, , .
,
22.
, 9
-
, .
, (
, . . ) .
(
( (
-
), )
,
,
,
). , . Atkin (1995,
,
. 125), «
, , -
23.
».
,
(
)
.
(
,
) ,
9
90% ,
,
,
,
.
-8-
. ,
,
.
.
5
(
)
. , -
.
-
.
.
24.
,
,
,
,
, -
-
. .
, , (
,
)
.
,
,
, ( (
,
) ,
. .).
,
25.
, . 3
3.
( . .
, )
.
3: Average per unit costs, prices and margins
Average per unit costs, prices and margins , ; Domestic marketing margin ; International marketing margin ; On farm production costs ; Land rents and ; profits ; Domestic sales – Export – ; Volume of sales –
Pworld (fob) Pdomestic Domestic marketing margin
International marketing margin
Pfarm On farm production costs
Land rents and profits
-9Exports
Volume of sales Domestic sales
26.
, ,
3).
(Pfarm
,
.
.
,
. , , .
,
, ,
, , .
, . ( . .
,
),
.
, , , .
27.
,
(
,
. .)
, .
, , , . , . ,
28.
, .
,
, , ,
. , - 10 -
(
.
),
,
,
, (
3
Pfarm
).
, ,
, ; . , . .
,
, ,
,
, .
29.
,
,
,
, 3)
(Pdomestic
,
. ,
, .
, ,
.
, ,
,
,
,
. 30.
, ÂŤ Pdomestic.
,
Âť, ,
,
, . .
-
,
,
, ,
, .
, ,
,
,
, . ,
,
, .
-
,
,
, (
)
, ,
. , ,
31. ,
,
, , -
,
- 11 -
.
.
1) 32.
-
, , 3,
(Pworld
2).
Pm ,
,
,
, (
, )10.
,
,
-
. , 2007-2008 ., .
, ,
. ,
33. (
«
»),
,
, .
,
(
) . ,
. ( ),
« ,
»
,
.
, , . , . 34.
,
1980 . (
,
11
)
. ,
,
10
,
, .
,
, . 11
,
« ,
. »
1970 .,
.
- 12 -
. .
, , , (Luttrell, 1980).
,
,
, ,
,
-
,
, .
, ,
.
1980 , .
2) 35.
, , .
, . ,
,
,
,
, . , ,
,
,
. ,
. ,
, ,
,
.
36. . , ,
,
. , ,
. 1.
37.
,
, , ,
.
,
,
, . - 13 -
. ,
,
. ,
-
,
,
,
. 38. .
, ,
. ,
,
,
,
, , .12
,
, . , , ,
. , ,
, .
, . , .
,
,
«
»
.
39. . (
)
XVII :
,
« , ». 40. »,
.
« ,
. , 12
.
- 14 -
,
,
,
,
,
,
, . . ,
,
, .
41.
, , , . (
,
)
( , .
, (
)
).
, 3 .
,
, Pworld.
Pfarm
,
, , , , (Liefert and Liefert, 2008; von
, Cramon-Taubadel et al, 2008). 42.
-
,
, ,
,
, ,
, /
, , . . , .
,
(Fulton et al., 1999). 43. , . , Pfarm
(
)
,
,
,
. , . - 15 -
44.
,
, ,
, .
,
, ,
,
.
, ,
.
.
,
,
, ,
, .
, ( . .
. ,
, ),
,
, , .
45.
, .
,
,
( . .
), ,
-
,
, .
- 16 -
. 3) 46.
(
)
1919 ,
. ,
.
1929
. .
1935
.
,
. .
«
» (CWB, 2008a). , .
.
1943
1949 1974
, .
,
1989
, (
) . .
47.
,
15
, (Informa Economics, 2008). -
( . .
. .); , .
(2008b)
« ». , Informa Economics (2008)
. ,
, .
,
«
»
; 2008b)
,
(CWB,
,
, . , , ,
- 17 -
, (
). .
48. , ,
.
1975 ,
.
1998
. ,
15
,
,
. ,
5
(
). , . 49. . , . (
,
),
,
, . ,
,
. 50.
-
,
«
» .
,
70-85%
(GAO, 1996). . , . ,
, , .
, .
, , , , . - 18 -
51.
-
,
,
, .
,
, ,
. . ,
.
,
, , Carter and Wilson, 1998).
( 52.
-
,
,
«
, ,
, ». (CWB, 2007,
, . 36).
, . , , . .
, ,
,
, (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2004). ,
,
.
, , ,
(Piggott, 1992).
53. , . 22).
et al, 1999; OECD, 2001,
,
(Fulton , .13 ,
54. . Carter (1993) Pick
Carter (1994) . Pick
Carter (1994)
, .
1982 1992 . (Carter and Wilson,
, 7,1%
1997,
1).
13
, ( . .
).
- 19 -
55.
Informa
Economics
,
(2008)
. , ,
, ,
« , , » (Informa Economics, 2008,
,
, . 1-2). .
-
, ,
, .
,
, ,
, .
, ,
«[ ]
,
, , » (Informa Economics, 2008,
56.
,
Informa Economics (2008), , 14,5% 25% » (Informa
, , 11%
. ,
Economics, 2008,
. 49).
« . 11).
57.
(CWB, 2008d; CWB, 2008e), , ,
( 2001 .). Economics (2008), «
10
.
/
2000Informa
, , ,
, ».
,
, ,
«[ ]
,
» (CWB, 2008c).
, .
,
,
, ,
, , , . .
,
. 58. .
, Carter et al. (1998) - 20 -
,
, ,
, .
, .
Informa Economics (2008) ( ) ,
(
) .
59. ,
.
, , , 1990-1991 . 3.3)
. , , .
700 (1996, . ).
1,2
1943
1996
.(
1990-1991
60. , (
,
) .
,
, .
, Fulton et al. (1999)
, ,
.14 (Fulton et al., 1999). ,
, (CWB, 2008f). 61.
, ,
, , , .
, , . 62.
,
,
14
. 1897 .
Pass, ».
Crow’s Nest -
« ,
1995 .
- 21 -
-
(
)
, . ,
.
,
,
,
,
; ,
, .
4) 63. (
(
)
)
«
, Wilson, 1997). ,
» (Carter and . , . (
, Carter and Wilson, 1997;
,
OECD, 2001), , 64.
. .
, ,
1980,
,
,
,
.
«
», . , Groenewegen et
( al., 2005). ,
65.
.
1915
, 1921 . . 1948 », (Whitwell and Sydenham, 1991). , 1988 .
1939 « ,
, . ,
, ,
- 22 -
.15 66.
1989
«
»
(Ryan, 1994). .
-
-
, ,
,
.
, , .
,
-
1989 (
)
–
. ,
1999 ,
(OECD, 2001).
. ,
,
,
2% .
,
,
, . , . .
67.
1995
, 1999
.
,
, (
), , 1995 « »
,
. 1995
(Groenewegen et al., 2005). , . 68.
1996 1997 . 1998 . 1 .
, 1999
. (Botterill, 2007).
,
, « »
«
« »
», 2001 .
«
15
, ,
. Cockfield
Botterill (2007).
- 23 -
, »
,
« », « »,
,
,
(AWB, 2007).
,
«
»,
. «
69. .
» 2004
,
, ,
, .
,
,
« », »
« ,
« .
», ,
,
(Botterill, 2007; Cole Commission, 2006). 70. . , (Cockfield and Botterill, 2007). (WEMCC, 2007) . 29 2007 1939 (Botterill, 2007).
, , « 2008
»,
., ,
,
«
» (
), (AWB, 2008). 71. – , , ,
. Ryan (1994), , , 20 . /
- 24 -
1987-1988
1990-1991.16
Vaile (2006)
«
» , .... 13
».
,
,
, . ,
Booz et al. (1995), , -1,31
,
, , +5,33
/ .17
. 72.
, , , ,
, ,
. Booz et al. (1995) ,
, 5 . Industry Group» (2000, « » . , « » (Groenewegen et al., 2005,
, . «Joint Groenewegen et al., 2005)
,
, . 64). :
73. , .
-
,
,
, Groenewegen et al. (2005,
. ,
. 5)
« ,
,
,
, . ». 16
(
),
( .
)
«
»
,
,
, . Wilson, 1997), ( ) Groenewegen et al. (2005, . 78) (
17
, Carter
,
( /
- 25 -
). .
, ,
, .
. .
,
,
–
,
– , (
.
), ,
-
.
,
«
»
,
.
74.
,
, , , .
, , ,
,
, . (
, ,
) . (von Cramon-Taubadel, 1986). 75.
, ,
,
, , .
– – .
76.
, . /
,
,
, .
1998
; 2007 , «
». , ,
,
,
. 77.
, ,
, . ,
, - 26 -
,
.
. ,
(2002,
.
2) «
, ». , ,
,
.
78. . ( ),
. ) .
( « ,
»
,
, . ,
79.
,
,
. , , . ,
, ,
, , , ,
, .
.
Carter et al. (1998)
,
. 1,83 (
3,47
1995-1997 2005-2007 ) – 6,6
18
-
.
18
CWB Forum
- 27 -
CWB (2007).
.
80. ,
1990(
, 1),
, . (
60%
), 80%.
. 100 ,
,
, ,
40%. ,
38
,
, .
(
), .
, ( ,
)
,
, ,
.
1990-
,
. 1:
:
(
) 19961998 35367
.
,
, . , / , . , .
, ,
1999-2001
2002-2004
2005-2007
2010
2017
37450
43350
46867
47311
51773
26,0
23,3
24, 0
24,5
23,9
24,2
1,4 37594
1,6 36200
1,8 37407
1,9 37331
2,0 37803
2,1 37822
98,5
105,5
103,4
102,0
103,3
104,8
13969
12433
14033
14631
15369
16086
14548
15459
14959
14528
14421
14110
2747 1153
2439 1862
1089 7895
1048 11154
1213 10616
1214 15159
-1594
-577
6806
10106
9404
13946
. , , ,
.
. .
- 28 -
.
,
, . , / .
, ,
.
,
28667
31135
28925
30911
30239
23,9
20,5
18,3
16,9
17,1
16,3
1,3
1,4
1,7
1,7
1,8
1,9
31255
26992
30746
28232
29179
30273
29,7
26,4
26,2
23,3
24,2
21,1
19435
16935
19953
18617
19590
21385
4384
3870
3796
3326
3379
2836
782
1,250
681
550
772
1186
607
1088
2347
1720
2460
1128
-175
-162
1666
1171
1688
-59
.
,
,
.
,
.
.
,
30899
: OECD, http://webnet.oecd.org/wbos/.
4:
– 1992-1993 (
Exports (million tones) -
. – 2007-2008
.
)
20 18 16 )s 14 n o t 12 n o il li 10 m ( st r 8 o p x E 6 4 2 0 92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
: USDA PSD – Online (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx).
81.
, - 29 -
. 2017 2 ,
.
.
,
1991-1992 32
,
. .
, 2017
16
.
82. . 2001
14
2007 .
., ,
20
. ,
83. . 2020
(
1
2008 2,6 2,8
) /
120-125 , 2008 ., .159). , 2008 (102,5
( , (2008)
2020 1. 2007 .),
78,7 (
, ).
( -
, 2008 .)
. 25
19
/
2008-2009
.
84. .
2000 2,1%
1,5%
.
2007
.
2008
, .
2,7 /
2008
,
.
85. .
2000
2007
.
, . 2008
,
.
19
2007 . .
VII-th Sochi’s Investment Forum: AGT Communication Group: Monitoring of mass media of September 22, 2008, page 9. http://www.mcx.ru/images/download.html?pi_id=6830.
- 30 -
, ( ,
). ,
,
2009 .
,
,
,
,
. 86.
,
,
,
. 57
1992-1994 ,
2004-2006
41
. (EBRD/FAO, 2008). , ,
.
,
, , / .
47
(2008) , .
87. ,
. 2008 .
90 . .
, ,
, .
, 2008 ,
120000
500000
.
2009 100000 (
2007-2008 (
, , 15%)
2).
2: 2008
.
,
, 2007-
.
- 31 -
, (
)
- -
(
( (
)
) ) (
) (
) )
( (
)
(
)
(
)
.
5187 272 1065 946 347 326 1100 432 371 597 13043
36% 19% 7% 7% 2% 2% 8% 3% 3% 4% 92%
1188
8%
: Valars.
88.
, (
3), ,
, ,
,
, .
2007-2008 , ,
(
.
,
12,2% , 12,5%). (2008-2009
,
, .),
. 2007-2008 ,
70%
. 60%
.
2008-2009
, ,
,
.20
3:
, 2007-2008 (
. ) (%)
(
.
. )
20
,2
- 32 -
2008 .
.
)
(
12,5%)
(
11,5%)
,
(
.
/ )
1591 (12,2%)
473702
298
8376 (64,2%)
2332565
278
1948 (14,9%) 1044 (8,0%) 42 (0,3%) 53 (0,4%) 13054 (100%)
508138 263812 15623 13742 3607582
261 253 371 258 276
: Valars.
2007-2008 ,
25% (
4).
89. 55%
. ,
, , . . .
, . ,
, , . , ,
,
.
- 33 -
,
4: 2007-2008
, (
.
(%)
) 3548 1090 1061 832 749 645 620 474 465 462 418 3868 14231
25% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 27% 100%
: Valars.
90. . . , . .
91. 5 ,
2007-2008
.
. (
, «
»
, «Aston Agro-Industrial AG» (
, «
»).
).
, –
– .
- 34 -
«Glencore»). ( , «Aston»,
5: «
20052006 2135,50
20062007 15% 2023,68
20072008 15% 2337,24
16%
1166,38
8% 1170,71
9% 1170,01
8%
1121,07 767,24
8% 421,91 5% 926,94
3% 905,96 7% 710,53
6% 5%
» « ( « « ( « « « « «
» ) »(
) »
) » »( »(
372,91 1186,34 774,01 420,02 524,24
)
) » »
3% 8% 5% 3% 4% 60%
576,63 1122,29 601,39 559,35 576,25
4% 8% 4% 4% 4% 59%
24%
627,30 623,19 598,37 597,16 541,58
27%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 57%
29%
Source: Valars.
92.
5,
, ,
60%.
, ,
, .
,
,
, ,
,
, 60-
.
,
,
5,
, .
93.
, .
«
» (USDA-FAS, 2008), ,
, . (
,
,
), . ,
, ,
, .
, – «
, 2007 ., , ,
, ». - 35 -
(« ,
»)
,
,
, ,
94. ,
.
2008 . «
-
.
» – 21
2008
.
, , .
, 75%) (25%)
(
, . . ,
,
,
, ,
,
, (
).
95.
«
» , .
, , . .
,
, , . ,
, .
5)
?
96. ,
, ,
,
,
. (
) ,
. .
,
, ,
21
.
http://www.apk-inform.com/showart.php?id=63689.
- 36 -
,
( ) 97. ,
,
–
( ,
)– 25 .
)(
, 22
, 4
( .).
98. , 2007-2008 ., , .
, , . (1986-1995
99.
.)
,
76%
(Dakers ,
and Fréchette, 1998). ,
5,
,
. 2017
10%, 12%. Carter and Wilson (1997) , 25%
, 25%. ,
,
,
, ,
,
.
. (
25 18%
) 2017
, .
5: – 1992-2007 ;
22
;
-27;
.
2017 . ;
«
;
;
;
».
- 37 -
;
100 90 80 70
Other Argentina
60
EU-27 Australia
50
Canada US
40
Kazakhstan Ukraine
30
Russia 20 10 0 1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
:
2012
-
2014
2016
;
,
;
.
100. (ÂŤ
,
,
Âť), , .
,
101. 20% (
). , 25%.
,
,
, .
,
,
, ,
1980 40%).
(
,
102.
, ,
(
,
, ,
). ( ) 103. , - 38 -
.
, ( ) . )
( ( ). ,
104.
, , ,
, ,
,
. , ,
( .
,
). , .
,
,
, . , 2007 .
6,3% - 15,1%,
23
. ,
, ,
. 105. . , . ,
,
,
,
, ,
.
–
,
, .
,
, , .
(
,
).
,
, , . , 23
6 (146), 2008 .
- 39 -
,
,
. , ,
106.
, (
)
. ),
(
,
,
,
.
, , .
, . ,
, ,
, , . . .
,
,
, ,
,
.
6) ? 107. , ,
(
)
,
.
, ,
.
, .
,
75 )
( «
.
, ,
» «
, ».
108.
,
, – , (
– ,
)
, ,
( ). 109.
, , ,
. ,
. - 40 -
, ,
,
.
, ,
,
,
. 2008 .
,
. 110. (
),
, .
,
, ,
,
. ,
,
, . ,
,
(
), ),
(
,
,
, ,
, .
, .
111.
, , ,
, . , ,
,
,
.
7) ? 112. – , – , .
, , - 41 -
, 2007-2008
. ,
, .
113. ( , ( )
), ,
,
. . , 24
,
, .
,
. ,
,
,
. ),
, (
Liefert
, ,
, 15
Liefert (2008), .
, 1990. 114.
,
,
, (
, ).
,
, .
, , .
, , , (
8)
,
XI, (
2). )?
115. 24
2008 .,
World Bank (2008).
- 42 -
, , ,
. ,
(
) .
: 10
.
25
250
.
.
. ,
, ,
-
. .
.
9) ? ,
116.
( .
)
,
,
, . ,
, .
,
,
,
, ,
, , 6,6
. 1995-1997 .
.
2005-2007
.
117. . . , (
)
. , ,
,
118.
- 43 -
, ,
, , , .
- 44 -
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (2004). Profile of the Canadian Wheat Industry. Biweekly Bulletin, July 5, 2004. Atkin, M. (1995): The international grain trade. Woodhead Publishing: Cambridge. Auditor General of Canada (2002). Canadian Wheat Board – Special Audit Report. Office of the Auditor General, Ottawa. http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/library/publications/popups/pdf/oagaudit_e.pdf. AWB (Australian Wheat Board) (2007): 2007 Annual Report – Corporate Governance Statement. Australian Wheat Board, Melbourne. AWB (Australian Wheat Board) (2008): ASX: Open Briefing – Constitutional Reform. September 3, 2008. Australian Wheat Board, Melbourne. http://www.awb.com.au/investors/companyannouncements/current/OpenBriefingConstituti onalReform.htm. Botterill, L.C. (2007): Timing is everything: the privatization of the Australian Wheat Board and the Oil for Food program. Democratic Audit of Australia, Discussion Paper 2/07, http://democratic.audit.anu.edu.au. Booz, Allen and Hamilton (1995). Milling Wheat Project: Consultant's Report to the Australian Grains Council. Canberra. Carter, C.A. (1993): An economic analysis of a single North American barley market. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 41(3): 243-56. Carter, C.A. and W.W. Wilson (1996): Emerging differences in state grain trading: Australia and Canada. Agricultural Economics, Vol. 16: 87-98. Carter, C.A., R.M.A. Loyns and D.Berwald (1998): Domestic Costs of Statutory Marketing Authorities: The Case of the Canadian Wheat Board. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 80: 313-324. Cockfield, G. and L.C. Botterill (2007): Deregulating Australia’s Wheat Trade: from the Australian Wheat Board to AWB Limited. Public Policy, Vol. 2(1): 44-57. Cole Commission (2006): Report of the Inquiry into certain Australian companies in relation to the UN Oil-for-Food Program. Volume 1: Summary, recommendation and background. Commonwealth of Australia. CWB (Canadian Wheat Board) (2007): Annual Report 2006-07. Canadian Wheat Board, Winnipeg. CWB (Canadian Wheat Board) (2008a): Canadian Wheat Board – History. Canadian Wheat Board, Winnipeg. www.cwb.ca/public/en/newsroom/media/history. CWB (Canadian Wheat Board) (2008b): Hot topics: CWB barley marketing. Canadian Wheat Board, Winnipeg. http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/hot/record/barmarket/.
- 45 -
CWB (Canadian Wheat Board) (2008c): Alberta report misuses data to reach false conclusions: CWB. News release, August 8, 2008, Canadian Wheat Board, Winnipeg. www.cwb.ca/public/en/newsroom/releases/2008/080808. CWB (Canadian Wheat Board) (2008d): Wheat Benchmarks Report-Establishing value of a monopoly. Canadian Wheat Board, Winnipeg. http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/library/ publications/popups/farmers_wheatbenchmark.jsp. CWB (Canadian Wheat Board) (2008e): The CWB and barley marketing. Canadian Wheat Board, Winnipeg. http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/library/publications/popups/ farmers_barleymarketing.jsp. CWB (Canadian Wheat Board) (2008f): Myths and facts. Canadian Wheat Board, Winnipeg. www.cwb.ca/public/en/newsroom/media/myths. CWB Forum: CWB Administration Costs per metric tonne & bushel. http://www.cwbforum.com/forum/postlist.html?showthread=40&showforum=3&nav_find =67#67, accessed October 1, 2008. Dakers, S. and J.-D. Fréchette (1998). The relative position of Canada in the world grain market. Government of Canada, Parliamentary Research Branch, http://dsppsd.tpsgc.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/modules/prb98-2-grain/grainmarket-e.htm. EBRD/FAO (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development / Food and Agriculture Organization) (2008): Fighting Food Inflation Through Sustainable Investment. London. Fulton, M., B. Larue and M. Veeman (1999): The Impact of Export State Trading Enterprises Under Imperfect Competition: The Small Country Case. Paper presented at the Canadian Agricultural Economics Society and Western Agricultural Economics Association Joint Annual Meeting, July 11-14, 1999, Fargo ND, USA. GAO (United States General Accounting Office) (1996): Canada, Australia and New Zealand – Potential Ability of Agricultural State Trading Enterprises to Distort Trade. Report to Congressional Requesters, GAO/NSIAD-96-94, Washington DC. Government of the Russian Federation (2008): – Moscow.
.
Groenewegen, J., B. Johnson, D. Spearin and S. Thompson (2005): Deregulation of Wheat and Barley Marketing in Australia and Potential Application to Western Canada. Study prepared for Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development. Informa Economics (2008): An Open Market for CWB Grain – A study to determine the implications of an open marketplace in western Canadian wheat, durum and barley for farmers. June 2008. Kostecki, M. M. (1982): State Trading in International Markets. MacMillan Press: London and Basingstoke. Liefert, W.M, and O. Liefert (2008): The Russian Federation. In: Anderson, K. and J. Swinnen (eds.), Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Europe’s Transition Economies. The World Bank, Washington DC. - 46 -
Luttrell, C.B. (1980): The Russian Grain Embargo: Dubious Success. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August/September 1980: 2-8. McCalla, A. (1966): McCalla, A.F. (1966): A Duopoly Model of World Wheat Pricing. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 48: 711-727. Mitchell, D. (2008): A Note on Rising Food Prices. World Bank Policy Research Paper 4682, The World Bank, Washington DC. Morgan, D. (1979): Merchants of Grain. Viking Press: New York. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) (2001): State Trading Enterprises in Agriculture. Paris. Pick, D. and C.A. Carter (1994). Pricing to market with transactions denominated in a common currency. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 76: 55-60. Piggott, R.R. (1992): Some old truths revisited. Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 36(2): l l7-140. Ryan T.J. (1994): Marketing Australia’s crop: the way ahead. Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Vol. 62(1): 107-121. Trostle, R. (2008). Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices. Economic Research Service (USDA) Working Paper WRS-0801. USDA-FAS (2008): Russian Federation - Grain and Feed: Government Grain Trade Monopoly May Return 2008. GAIN Report Number RS8052, 7/10/2008. www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200807/146295244.pdf USDA (2008): World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 11, 2008. USDA (2009): Grain: World Markets and Trade, January 2009. Vaile, M. (2006): The Single Desk in the Doha Round. Speech at the ABARE Outlook Conference. http://www.trademinister.gov.au/speeches/2006/060301_abare_conf.html Valars (2008). Personal communication. von Cramon-Taubadel, S. (1986): The United Kingdom’s Imports of Canadian Wheat: Analysis of a Declining Market. Master’s Research Paper, University of Manitoba, 1986. von Cramon-Taubadel, S., O. Nivyevskiy, E. Elsner von der Malsburg and V. Movchan (2008): Ukraine. In: Anderson, K. and J. Swinnen (eds.), Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Europe’s Transition Economies. The World Bank, Washington DC. von Witzke, H., S. Noleppa and G. Schwarz (2008): Global agricultural market trends and their impacts on European Union agriculture. Working Paper Nr. 84/2008, Wirtschaftsund Sozialwissenschaften an der Landwirtschaftlich-Gärtnerischen Fakultät, HumboldtUniversity Berlin. WEMCC (Wheat Export Marketing Consultation Committee) (2007): Wheat Export Marketing Consultation Committee Report. Commonwealth of Australia. - 47 -
Whitwell, G. and D. Sydenham (1991): A Shared Harvest. MacMillan Education Australia, Pty. Ltd., Melbourne. World Bank, 2008. Ukraine – Competitive Agriculture or State Control; Ukraine's Response to the Global Food Crisis. The World Bank, May 2008.
- 48 -
1: – ,
, .
,
, . ,
,
. ( ,
), . . ,
.
, ( . . (pd)
). (pw)
.
1.
A1: Price
;
–
Quantity
-
Price a
pd
pd
( ), ,
S pa
ab
X
b
pw X
pd
D
pw. D1
D0
D0
S1
Quantity
pa
.
, pa
,
pw pd S0
(S0 – D0)
S0
D1.
(S1 – D1). , . . - 49 -
pw. S1.
pa
( ,
,
, ).
, — . . , , . ,
pa
pd, pd.
, ,
,
,
.
,
, , ,
, ,
pd
pw.
- 50 -