IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERYIN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC This report reviews the social and economic requirements for weather, climate and hydrological information in the Kyrgyz Republic, assesses the capacity of the Kyrgyz National Hydrometeorological Service to meet these needs, and proposes steps to be taken to fill gaps.

World Bank 2009

Table of Contents PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 PURPOSE OF REPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND NATURAL HAZARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 ROLE OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN KYRGYZSTAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS FOR WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 STATUS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 PROPOSED MODERNIZATION OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 NEXT STEPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 CHAPTER 1. KEY WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.1. MAIN GEOGRAPHICAL AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE RISKS AND THEIR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.2.1. WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER HAZARDS: CLASSIFICATION, CLIMATOLOGY AND IMPACTS . . . . . . . .

1.2.2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DAMAGE ESTIMATES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

METHOD OF ESTIMATES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SOURCES OF INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ESTIMATES OF METEOROLOGICAL RISKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.3. WEATHER-DEPENDENCE OF ECONOMY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.4. SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12 12 14 14 16 16 17 17 21 23

CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY ASSESSMENT OF KYRGYZ HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1. LEGAL, ORGANIZATIONAL AND FINANCIAL ASPECTS, STAFFING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.1. BRIEF HISTORY OF KYRGYZ HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.2. NMHS ACTIVITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.3. INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.4. REGIONAL CENTERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.5. NMHS BUDGET. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.6. STAFFING ARRANGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.7. TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADING PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.8. BUILDINGS, FACILITIES AND CAPITAL ASSETS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.9. CONTACTS WITH MASS MEDIA AND COMMUNITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.10. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COOPERATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.11. COMPLETED PROJECTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.12. ON-GOING PROJECTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.13. COORDINATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES WORKING IN THE FIELD OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY . . . . .

2.2. OBSERVATION NETWORK, INFRASTRUCTURE, FACILITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2.1. NMHS OBSERVATION SYSTEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

GROUND-BASED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

REMOTE OBSERVATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2.2. TECHNICAL SUPPORT OF METEOROLOGICAL EQUIPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2.3. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN WEATHER FORECASTING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ROUTINE FORECASTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

EVALUATION OF ROUTINE FORECASTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ACCESS TO NUMERICAL MODEL DATA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2.4. TELECOMMUNICATIONS, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

COLLECTION AND TRANSMISSION OF DATA AND INFORMATION PRODUCTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

24 24 24 24 25 25 27 28 28 29 29 29 30 30 31 31 31 31 35 35 36 36 36 36 37 38

DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.3. PRODUCTS AND SERVICE DELIVERY, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, NATIONAL COORDINATION . . . . . .

2.3.1. WEATHER INFORMATION SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.3.2. CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.3.3. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.3.4. HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.3.5. ANTI-AVALANCHE PROTECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.3.6. CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.3.7. INFORMATION SERVICES PROVIDED AT USER REQUEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.4 SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

39 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 42 42

CHAPTER 3. ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.1. APPROACHES TO NEEDS ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2. ASSESSMENT OF KEY SECTOR’S NEEDS FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.1. EMERGENCIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.2. AGRICULTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.3. WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.4. HYDROPOWER INDUSTRY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.5. HEAT AND POWER SUPPLY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.6. TRANSPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.3. EVALUATION OF SECTOR NEEDS AND NMHS CAPACITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.4. SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

43 43 44 44 45 46 48 50 51 52 53

CHAPTER 4. ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE DELIVERY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.1. GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUNDS OF ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.2. APPROACHES TO ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.2.1. BENCHMARKING METHOD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.2.2. SECTORSPECIFIC ASSESSMENT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.3. RESULTS OF THE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE PROPOSED KYRGYZHYDROMET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.3.1. BENCHMARKING ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.3.2. SECTOR-SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ASSESSING KEY PARAMETERS FOR THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

THE MAIN RESULTS OF ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF NMHS MODERNIZATION FOR SELECTED SECTORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.3.3. SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS OF NMHS’S MODERNIZATION ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . .

54 54 54 54 55 56 56 57 57 58 60 61

CHAPTER 5. HOW TO IMPROVE WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICE DELIVERY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC . . . . . . . . . . 63 5.1. POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT (MODERNIZATION PROPOSAL) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 5.2. ACTION PLAN AND NEXT STEPS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 ANNEXES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

PREFACE This report is prepared as a part of a technical assistance project “An Action Plan for Improving Weather and Climate Service Delivery in High-Risk, Low-Income Countries in Central Asia” funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). GFDRR is a partnership of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) system to support implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. The Hyogo Framework endorsed by the UN general Assembly is the primary international agreement for disaster reduction. The GFDRR is managed by the World Bank on behalf of the participating donor stakeholders. The GFDRR provides technical and financial assistance to high risk low and middleincome countries to mainstream disaster reduction in national development strategies and plans to achieve Millennium Development Goals.

The report is based on the findings of the World Bank technical missions and surveys undertaken in Kyrgyzstan in 2008. A user consultation workshop, which focused on the efficacy of Kyrgyzstan’s the national hydrometeorological services was conducted on December 16, 2008. The report will contribute to the development of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters. This Program was recently launched, coordinated by the World Bank, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the umbrella of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC).

The program incorporates three focus areas: (i) disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) risk financing and transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. This Initiative will form the foundation for regional and country specific investment priorities (projects) in the area of early warning, disaster risk reduction and financing. While the initiative would initially focus on onstructural measures, it could in a subsequent phase support structural investments aimed at protecting assets, lives and livelihood of communities in disasterprone areas. It could be financed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and other interested donors. Funds could also be provided for adaptation to climate change and streamlining adaptation activities into countries’ development programs.

4

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The main authors of the report are David Rogers, Marina Smetanina, and Vladimir Tsirkunov who is also the Task Team Leader for this GFDRR project. A. Korshunov, V. Kotov and A. Zaitsev participated in the country missions and developed technical background documents and studies on climate vulnerability, capacity assessment of Kyrgyzhydromet and modernization alternatives.

The authors would like to thank staff of the Kyrgyz hydrometeorological service in its central office and regional centers, which facilitated the work of technical missions in Bishkek and Naryn oblast. Preparation of this report was advanced significantly by substantive inputs and coordination efforts made especially M. Bakanov and I. Mayatskaya. Important contributions to user needs and sector-specific economic assessments were made by experts from the entities of the sectoral ministries and agencies of the Kyrgyz Republic; in particular, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Manufacturing industry, the Ministry of Transport and Communications, and the Ministry of Industry and Energy. The project team benefited from constructive dialogue with representatives of interested stakeholders during a consultation workshop in Bishkek (December 16, 2008) and their unanimous recognition of the importance and urgent need to improve the Kyrgyzhydromet capacity.

The authors are grateful for support and valuable advice received from Roger Robinson, Country Manager for Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan, and Ainura Kupueva and Dinara Djoldosheva. The assistance provided by colleagues from Bishkek World Bank Office, especially Damir Esenaliev and Juldyz Diakopova during preparation of report materials, and also Nurjamal Asanova and Carine TerAkopova while preparing technical missions and the consultation workshop, are highly appreciated.

Finally, we would like to thank representatives of donor organizations who kindly agreed to meet with World Bank teams and provided valuable perspectives of the future cooperation in this area. Special thanks to H. Maag, Director of the Swiss Cooperation Office for his active participation and support of this technical assistance work.

5

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

6

ADB

Asian Development Bank

CIS

Commonwealth of Independent States

DWC

Drastic Weather Changes

ECA

Europe and Central Asia

ECMWF

European Center for Mediumrange Weather Forecasting

EHH

Extreme (high impact) Hydrometeorological Hazards

GEF

Global Environment Facility

GFDRR

Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

GIS

Geographical Information System

GTS

Global Telecommunication System (WMO)

HH

Hydrometeorological Hazards

HMI

Hydrometeorological information

IASRF

International Aral Sea Rehabilitation Fund

IBRD

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development

IFI

International Financial Institution

JICA

Japan International Cooperation Agency JICA

KR

The Kyrgyz Republic

Kyrgyzhydromet

State Meteorological Service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic

MoES

Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic

NMHS

National Meteorological and Hydrological Service

PWS

Public Weather Service

R&D

Research and Development

SDC

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation

SECO

State Secretariat for Economic Affairs of Swiss Ministry of Economic Affairs

UNCCC

United Nations Climate Change Conference

UNDP

United Nations Development Programme

UNEP

United Nations Environmental Program

UNESCAP

United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

UNISDR

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster reduction

UNOCHA

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

UNWFP

United Nations World Food Programme

VCP

Voluntary Cooperation Programme (WMO)

WMO

World Meteorological Organization – a United Nations agency

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PURPOSE OF REPORT This report is prepared as a part of a broader technical assistance project funded by a Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) grant that is being implemented by the World Bank in the Republic of Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan. The overall objective of the project is to advance the disaster risk reduction agenda in Central Asia by developing specific actions to improve weather and climate delivery, which will contribute to national hazard risk reduction programs and improve capacity for emergency management.

The purpose of this specific report is to identify the social and economic requirements of Kyrgyzstan for weather, climate and hydrological information and to assess to capacity of the Kyrgyz State Hydrometeorological Service (Kyrgyzhydromet) to meet these needs. The report identifies the gaps and weaknesses in producing and delivering weather, climate and hydrological information and services, and recommends how to restore and improve the capability of the national hydrometeorological service to save lives and livelihoods, and support social and economic development.

GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND NATURAL HAZARDS Kyrgyzstan is located in the center of the Eurasian continent, away from significant water bodies, and close to deserts, which defines the drought-prone continental climate of the country. On the average, 3–4 extreme meteorological hazards (drastic changes of weather, frosts, heavy precipitation) occur annually covering the majority of the country, there are about 7–10 highimpact mudflow and avalanches, and seasonal river floods happen every year. Destructive mudflow and floods, and large avalanching occur once in several years. Major weather-related risks to agriculture include droughts (especially associated with low water flow in the rivers), late spring and early fall frosts, winter thaws (risks for winter grain cereals), and hailstorms. Floods and mudflows generated by snow-thaw and rainstorms destroy residential houses, dams, other irrigation facilities, roads, bridges and agricultural crops.

ROLE OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN KYRGYZSTAN Kyrgyzhydromet is responsible for issuing warnings and forecasts on the occurrence of hazardous weather events (avalanches, mudflows, floods, heavy and/or lasting rains and snowfalls, strong winds, hailstorms, glazed frosts, etc.) and drastic weather changes. Kyrgyzhydromet disseminates warnings to the management of the Ministry of Emergencies and its structural subdivisions, Prime-Minister’s Office, concerned ministries and agencies, regional and local administrations; storm warnings are communicated by phone, fax, email and telegraph; and local communities are notified through mass media.

As a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Kyrgyz Republic, through its National Hydrometeorological Service (NMHS), provides the international meteorological community access to the data of the national observational network, and receives information from other countries’ NMHS. The activities of the NMHS are regulated by the laws and resolutions of the Kyrgyz Republic, which define: 1. Major areas of public regulation in hydrometeorology: a. Establish and ensure functioning of the public observational network; b. Provide data on the actual and forecasted condition of the natural environment, including urgent information, to public authorities and population; c. Establish public hydrometeorological information resources, develop and maintain a single public fund of environmental data; d. Participate in international cooperation in hydrometeorology; 2. The Law defines NMHS activities in meteorology, hydrology and environmental pollution monitoring 3. The main functions of the Hydrometeorological Service are to: a. Implement continuous observations of the climate system and environmental conditions; b. Provide public authorities, sectors of economy and population with data on the actual and forecasted environmental conditions, current and special-purpose (including urgent) hydrometeorological information.

7

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS FOR WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION An assessment of the Kyrgyzstan’s current requirements for weather, climate and hydrological information was conducted with national experts. Approximately half of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP is weather and climate sensitive and would benefit from more reliable hydrometeorological and climate information to improve day-to-day operations and planning. Current economic losses are estimated to vary between 1.0 – 1.5% of GDP. More specific estimate is problematic due to poor and inconsistent data. Agriculture is the leading sector of the economy and most vulnerable to extreme weather, especially droughts and frosts. Other sectors at risk include transport and communication, construction, energy production and distribution, domestic heating, health and mining.

STATUS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES An extensive technical review of observational networks and other hydrometeorological infrastructure (telecommunications, facilities for forecasting weather conditions within the country, warning systems) of the Kyrgyzhydromet, including the outcomes of assistance projects implemented by USAID and GEF/World Bank in support of regional NMHS has been conducted. It shows that the current condition of the hydrometeorological service fails to meet the needs of the government and the weather and climatesensitive social and economic sectors for hydrometeorological services. It also shows that the Kyrgyzhydromet fails to fulfill the country’s international and regional obligations for weather and climate information including those under the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Observation Network. In summary: • There is a persistent downward trend in the quantity and quality of measurements at most stations of the ground-based meteorological network, since all measurement facilities, equipment and communications have been in operation for a long time, exhausted their service life, and become deteriorated and obsolete. The scope of observations in high-mountain regions of the Republic has significantly decreased; • The condition of the hydrological observational network is unsatisfactory (deterioration of measuring devices, supporting equipment and hydrological facilities amounts to 90%, communications and power supply facilities have exhausted their service life and become obsolete; sparepart kits are non-existent) resulting in insufficient quality of the runoff forecast; • Snow avalanche surveys do not cover more than 10% of avalanche-hazardous areas of the country, aerial snow surveys are performed sporadically, and the snow survey network is almost destroyed. As a result, Kyrgyzhydromet has a limited capacity to provide timely snow slide forecasts and warnings; • No aerological observations are performed in the Republic, which, given the lack of temperature and wind sounding data from Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, significantly affects the quality of weather forecasts, as well as the results of global and regional meteorological model calculations for the Central Asian Region; • There is a lack of appropriate communication between stations and monitoring sites of the meteorological and hydrological observation networks, and the data collection center at the NMHS; • The system of data collection and dissemination at Kyrgyzhydromet is inefficient and fails to ensure reliable data collection and provision of information products to regional and districtlevel users; • The available information technologies are obsolete and fail to ensure receipt and transmission of large data amounts required to produce modern information products; • Technologies required to produce and transmit data and information products from NMHS offices to users are non-existent both in the center and at regional hydrometeorological centers; • Funds allocated from the NMHS budget to finance operational costs are insufficient to adequately support the operations of stations and monitoring sites, implementation of airborne snow surveys, and temperature and wind sounding of the atmosphere; • Scientific and methodological support of NMHS operations is weak; • Metrological support of measurement equipment is almost non-existent leading to a considerable deterioration of the quality of the NMHS observational data; • The means of forecasting and production of information products, possibly except automated runoff forecasting in the Syr Darya River basin developed with Swiss assistance, fail to meet modern requirements for hydrometeorological services provided to public authorities, the economy and communities.

ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS When preparing their modernization programs, NMHSs have traditionally focused on the technological aspects of hydrometeorological service development. Such approach aims at improving forecast accuracy and timeliness. However, inadequate interaction with users usually prevents NMHSs from taking into account their current and future information needs. A complete

8

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

absence or under development of contacts with users during modernization planning results in a gap between the opportunities and plans of hydrometeorological service provision and understanding of what, how and where NMHS information can be used most effectively to support management and operational decisions in specific sectors of the economy.

Users’ needs were determined from both the perspective of the NMHS and from users directly through an assessment of their needs using survey instruments and sector experts. The results provide general information on a given sector’s dependence on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards, on the amount and quality of hydrometeorological information used by the sector, and on the current efficacy of information uses. They also provide information on the potential demand for hydrometeorological products, and suggest areas for service improvement and customization.

Each of the weather and climate sensitive sectors that contributed to this study reported that they used current information, shortrange forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), and long-range forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month and 1year periods), and hydrometeorological disaster and hydrometeorological hazard warnings supplied by Kyrgyzhydromet. In general, their assessment of the quality, reliability and timeliness of the products and services provided by Kyrgyzhydromet ranged from poor to satisfactory. Improving hydrometeorological observations and the accuracy and means of delivery of forecast products and services is a high priority amongst users. They also highlighted the importance of including users in any modernization process to ensure that future products and services aligned with user needs.

ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES The economic assessment sought to estimate the potential benefits that accrue to business activities in the country from the improved quality (accuracy and timeliness) of the hydrometeorological information and services delivered by Kyrgyzhydromet following its modernization. The benefits associated with the economic value of hydrometeorological information for the household sector were not assessed given the time and financial constraints. The value of potentially saved lives and reduced injuries was also beyond the scope of the assessment.

The recommendations concerning the technical and technological status of Kyrgyzhydromet and priorities in upgrading its hydrometeorological service were based on: (i) assessment of the current level of observation and forecasting of weather hazards, and the warnings for the population and economy of the country; (ii) obligations under the international and intergovernmental agreements and treaties of Kyrgyzstan; (iii) analysis of the performance of the current international projects for rendering assistance to NMHS; (iv) needs of the national economic sectors in hydrometeorological service provision; and (v) analysis of the current NMHS status and opportunities to support the operational system.

The economic benefits of investing in the Kyrgyzhydromet modernization were assessed on the basis of the benchmarking and sector-specific assessment methods. The cost/benefit analysis was also conducted by applying the data on average annual losses calculated through the sector-specific assessments.

The main obstacle in the assessment of economic benefits is the absence of systematic recording of damage/losses, both in physical and value terms, incurred by the economy, its sectors and population from the entire range of hydrometeorological hazards and unfavorable weather conditions. Thus it was necessary to apply several complementary approaches to ensure the basic integrity of the data and results.

Benchmarking is used to determine the level of annual direct economic losses and the level of annual preventable losses, which can be used to calculate the marginal efficacy of a potential improvement of services following the modernization of the NMHS. The sector-specific approach is based on expert assessments of the potential preventable losses and the likely change in level of expenditures on prevention as a result of more accurate and timely hydrometeorological information and services. On this basis, the potential effect and economic efficacy of the NMHS modernization are estimated.

The benchmark results indicate that the average annual amount of direct damage associated with hydrometeorological phenomena was about USD25 million or 1.0% of annual average GDP. According to preliminary estimates obtained from meteorological risk assessment, annual economic losses are over USD27 million (1.1% of GDP). The sector-specific assessment involved estimated indirect losses and showed higher total damages about USD40 million or 1.5% of GDP. The estimated annual economic benefit of the proposed modernization program ranges on average from USD2.9 million to USD3.8 million per year. This means that within 7 years, the economic benefit of the modernization would be between USD21 million and USD27 million. The corresponding economic efficacy of the investment in the modernization would be between 240% and 318% or, in other words, each dollar spent on the modernization of the Kyrgyzhydromet would yield at least USD2.4 revenue as a result of avoided damage.

PROPOSED MODERNIZATION OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES The NMHS modernization is primarily aimed at reducing the risks to human life and potential damage to Kyrgyzstan’s economy as a result of weather and climate events. It is also intended to fulfill of the country’s regional and international obligations, first and foremost, the assessment and management of regional water resources, the improvement of cooperation between the NMHS

9

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

and final users of hydrometeorological data and information products, and the maintenance of the NMHS capacity by improving its institutional, staff and financial sustainability.

Three modernization options were considered: 1. Large scale program of actions on strengthening and technical upgrading (USD12.8 million) 2. Low budget minimum option designed to arrest further degradation of the current capacity and strengthen cooperation with users (USD3.55 million) 3. Moderate cost, high impact program designed to achieve many of the objectives of the first option, but with less investment in automation of the observing network and implementation of information technologies (USD8.3 million).

The preferred third option would allow Kyrgyzhydromet to: • Achieve the key objective of the modernization, i.e. reduce the risk to life and damage to the economy caused by weather and climaterelated events through higher accuracy and longer lead time warnings provided to relevant emergency agencies; • Fulfill regional and international obligations of Kyrgyzstan through improved quality and reliability of meteorological and hydrological (water discharge/runoff) measurements; • Provide reliable hydrometeorological data and forecasts to users; • Achieve a level of Kyrgyzhydromet close to “satisfactory” in terms of technology; • Retain Kyrgyzhydromet capacity by enhancing its institutional, staff and financial sustainability; To fulfill these tasks requires concrete actions that will achieve the following outcomes: • An improved system of hydrometeorological monitoring and forecasting capable of providing timely warnings of extreme and hazardous weather events and managing water resources. Key elements: o Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system; o Restore and upgrade the meteorological observational network; o Renew temperature-wind sounding of the atmosphere on the territory of Kyrgyzstan; o Renew key observation sites of the hydrological network, and equip the operating posts with the required; o Restore the snow avalanche observational network; o Establish quality control of hydrometeorological data and products; o Consider creating public-private partnerships; o Strengthening the IT base of Kyrgyzhydromet.

• Enhanced service delivery. Key elements include: o The capacity to understand and interact effectively with stakeholders using staff trained appropriately; o Continuous engagement of stakeholders through frequent meetings and workshops to understand the changing needs of users and current performance of Kyrgyzhydromet; o Establishing a customer advisory body, which includes representatives of all stakeholders; o Easily accessible products through the web and other media; o Well defined service agreements between the Kyrgyzhydromet and each customer; o Special attention to key user groups.

• Improved staff training and professional upgrading. Key elements include: o Project management; o Technical skills to support observing networks; o Enhanced skills in weather forecasting using numerical methods; o Knowledge of social, environmental, and economic sectors sufficient to provide consulting services to their users; o Enhanced skill in climate prediction using numerical methods; o Greater computer literacy for all staff; o Public education and outreach; o IT management skills.

The first steps are: o training courses for the observational staff of hydrometeorological stations and sites; o transfer of experience and participation of specialists in training sessions dedicated to the development and implementation of new forecasting techniques; o use of satellite information in weather forecasting and analysis; o utilization of hydrometeorological devices and facilities; o more efficient work with climatic data.

10

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

NEXT STEPS Preliminary results of the study were presented to the government stakeholders in December 2008 at the consultation workshop. Participants of the workshop supported the findings as recorded in the workshop recommendations (Annex 6). It is expected that the Action Plan for improvement of weather, climate and hydrological services delivery in Kyrgyzstan elaborated further in this report will be supported by the Government.

Financing of the Action Plan will likely be a combination of governmental funds, concessional financing from international financial institutions (IFIs), international and bilateral donors’ support. The Action Plan will also be an integral part of a broader Central Asia (and Caucasus) Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (CAREC DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters. The CAC DRMI incorporates three focus areas: (i) coordination of disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) financing of disaster losses, reconstruction and recovery, and disaster risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives; and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning.

The initiative would be coordinated by World Bank, the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) Secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the CAREC umbrella. The Initiative will build on the existing cooperation that already exists in the region, and will complement and consolidate activities of the IFIs, the EU, the Council of Europe, the UN agencies, regional cooperation institutions, bilateral donors such as the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and others to promote more effective disaster mitigation, preparedness and response. It was agreed by donors and international organizations to convene in November 2009 a regional Central Asia Workshop aimed at improvement of hydrometeorological services and early warning systems. It is hoped that specific approaches towards funding commitments will be clarified during this workshop.

11

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

CHAPTER 1. KEY WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS 1.1. MAIN GEOGRAPHICAL AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS Kyrgyzstan is located in the center of the Eurasian continent, away from significant water bodies (Figure 1.1). Its proximity to deserts creates a droughtprone continental climate, which is offset partly by its high relief resulting in large amounts of precipitation, and smaller annual temperature variations compared to the neighboring valley areas. Most of Kyrgyzstan is located within the moderate climate zone, and its southern areas are within the subtropical climate zone.

Highly distinctive climate conditions are noted in the Issyk-Kul hollow with an ice-free subsaline lake located in its lower part.

Here, over a comparatively small area, all types of climate from extremely continental to marine are represented.

The wind pattern is dominated by a mountain-valley circulation with regular changes of wind direction: down slope mountain winds at nights and up slope valley winds in the daytime. In winter months, valley winds are weak and occur only in the afternoon; mountain winds, therefore, dominate the annual pattern. Lake breezes are typical for the Lake Issyk-Kul area with daytime winds blowing from the lake towards the coast, and nighttime winds ones blowing from the coast towards the lake.

Mountain ridges prevent high wind speeds, and the mean annual wind speed ranges from 1 to 3 ms-1. Cold intrusions cause strong westerly winds or gusts; southern cyclones are accompanied by Fuhn winds (warm down slope winds often responsible for rapid snow melt) of mostly easterly and southeasterly directions. The days with strong winds (15 ms-1) are few, numbering less than 20 days per year.

The frequency of strong winds is higher in the Issyk-Kul hollow: the number of days with strong winds is between 20 and 50 in the central and eastern parts of the basin, over 70 in the western part and in some years up to 120 days.

Air temperature patterns depend on altitude with mean annual temperature ranges from +10 to +13o C in the valleys to -7 to o -8 C in the highlands. This height dependence of temperature is most evident during the warm season. The highest mean monthly summertime temperatures are noted in the lower northern part of the Chuisk Valley and in the valleys of Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken regions. July is the warmest month of the year with average temperatures ranging from -25 to -27o C in Fergana Region to -4o C in Kumtor stow (3600 m above sea level (ASL)).

Air temperatures in the cold season are largely affected by the relief. Temperatures are much lower in closed valleys and depressions than at ridge slopes of the same height. The lowest mean monthly wintertime temperatures are observed in the highland glacial areas (Kumtor stow, Ak-Sai Valley) and deep hollows (Suusamyr). January temperature in Suusamyr hollow (2600 m ASL) are about -22oC, which correspond to temperatures in Kumtor stow (3610 m ASL). The highest winter temperatures occur in the piedmonts of Fergana and Kyrgyz Ridges, between -2 to -4oC. In comparison with the generally arid climate of Central Asia, the mountain areas in Kyrgyzstan receive a lot of precipitation, especially along western and south-western slopes facing moistureladen air flows (up to 1100 mm of rain per year at southern slopes of the Chatkal ridge, 1500-2000 mm in the preridge area of south-western slopes of the Fergana ridge and northern slopes of the Kyrgyz ridge).

All downwind slopes and deep depressions sheltered by rock masses or high mountain ridges are very dry. The western coast of Lake Issyk-Kul is the most arid with a total annual precipitation amount of less than 140-150 mm.

The largest precipitation amount occurs in the warm season in most regions of Kyrgyzstan, except Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken regions where 50-60% of the annual precipitation occurs during the cold season. In valleys and at upwind slopes, the primary peak of precipitation occurs in spring, the secondary one is between October and November, and the minimum is between August and September. Maximum precipitation in the highlands and Issyk-Kul hollow occurs between June and July.

Box 1.1 summarizes the four climatic regions of Kyrgyzstan.

12

Fig. 1.1: Map of Kyrgyzstan

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

13

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Box 1.1 Four climate regions of Kyrgyzstan Northern and North-Western Kyrgyzstan, which includes Chuisk and Talas Valleys with surrounding mountain ridges, is noted for moderately warm and sufficiently moistened climate with maximum precipitation occurring in spring and early summer, and moderate amount of winter precipitation. The second half of summer in valleys is dry.

North-Eastern Kyrgyzstan, which includes Issyk-Kul hollow. Maximum amount of summer precipitation and insignificant deposition in winter are typical for this region. Due to the presence of icefree subsaline Lake Issyk-Kul located in the lower part of the hollow the climate in this region is close to marine one. The water body of Lake Issyk-Kul tends to decrease air temperature in winter, though in summer this influence is almost negligible.

South-Western Kyrgyzstan, which includes Fergana, Alai and Chatkal Valleys with surrounding mountain ridges. This is the warmest and most moistened area with considerable amount of winter precipitation. Otherwise the annual precipitation pattern is similar to the first climatic region: maximum precipitation occurs in spring in the lower part of the region and shifts towards early summer in the highlands.

The second half of summer has for small amounts of precipitation with droughts occurring in the lower areas in August and September. The highest air temperatures in the warm season occur in this climatic region.

Inner Tyan Shan is characterized by the coldest and semiarid climate noted for little evaporation at low temperatures. In the highlands, where the amount of atmospheric deposition exceeds evaporation, large areas are occupied by glaciers and snow patches. The annual precipitation pattern is similar to the one in the third climatic region with maximum deposition occurring in May, June and July.

Source: Mayatskaya, 2005.

1.2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE RISKS AND THEIR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 1.2.1. WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER HAZARDS: CLASSIFICATION, CLIMATOLOGY AND IMPACTS A standard classification of hydrometeorological events and unfavorable weather conditions by intensity and impact on the economy and population is used in Kyrgyzstan. By these criteria extreme (high impact) hydrometeorological hazards (EHHs), including hydrometeorological disasters, and hydrometeorological hazards (HHs) are identified. A full list of EHHs and HHs monitored and forecast by Kyrgyzhydromet on a regular basis is given in Annex I. Descriptions and criteria of EHHs and HHs are also provided1.

Meteorological, agrometeorological and hydrological events are classed as EHHs when, by intensity, territorial coverage (more than 30% of the region’s territory) or duration, they could cause or have caused significant damage to the economy and population and could result or have resulted in a disaster.

Meteorological, agrometeorological and hydrological events are classed as HHs when, by certain criteria, they could cause damage but whose intensity, duration and territorial coverage do not exceed criteria of EHHs. Figure 1.2: Mudflow and Flood Damages

Source: Presentations at Consultation Workshop (Bishkek, December 16, 2008) 1

Most of the EHH criteria have remained unchanged since Soviet times (up to 1990). The only exceptions are as follows: in the list of meteorological EHHs duration of fog with meteorological visibility range (MVR) < 50 m changed from 12 to 6 hours. In addition two new EHHs appeared such as “longlasting rain” (meteorological event) and “atmospheric drought” (agrometeorological event).

14

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

In addition drastic weather changes (DWCs) are identified by Kyrgyzhydromet. These are events that could have a high impact on the operations of basic economic sectors (e.g., in the harvesting period dry weather breaks up and becomes rainy), although the meteorological events do not reach the intensity criteria of EHHs. EHHs pose the greatest threat to the economy and population of Kyrgyzstan.

Among EHHs, mudflows and floods generated by snow-thaw and rainstorms are the most hazardous (fig. 1.2). They cause significant economic damage by destroying roads, railways, bridges, dams, irrigation facilities, agricultural crops, and killing cattle and sometimes causing human losses. In spring and summer the whole territory of Kyrgyzstan is exposed to mudflows and floods. Most often they occur in Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken regions. Overall there are 3100 mudflow river basins.

In addition there are 2000 highland outburstrisk lakes in Kyrgyzstan. For 200 of these, the probability of an outburst is high.

Outbursts of such lakes damage not only the industry and population of Kyrgyzstan, but also neighboring countries. For example, in 1998, an outburst of the Kurban-Kul highland lake triggered a mud flood on the Shakhimardan River, which flowed through the territory of Uzbekistan causing human losses. In Kyrgyzstan more than 300 settlements are located in areas of probable lake outbursts. Mudflow events that caused damage have been recorded in 1153 settlements. A map of the country, zoned by degree of the mudflow risk, is shown in Fig. 1.3.

Figure 1.3: Map of Kyrgyzstan zoned by degree of the mudflow risk

Source: KR Ministry of Emergency Situations

In the cold season highland areas are exposed to snow avalanches. According to avalanche survey reports produced by Kyrgyzhydromet, about a half (105 thousand km2) of the overall territory of the Kyrgyz Republic is exposed to the risk of avalanches annually. About 30 thousand avalanche origin centers were detected in 779 surveyed snow accumulation areas. A map of the country, zoned by degree of the avalanche risk, is shown in Fig. 1.4.

Figure 1.4: Map of Kyrgyzstan territory zoned by degree of the avalanche risk

Source: KR Ministry of Emergency Situations

15

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

The avalanche season is between 5 and 7 months long. Depending on terrain elevation, however, avalanches can occur at any time. Annually, from 800 to 1500 avalanches of various volumes are recorded. Most of them cannot be surveyed since vast highland areas are inaccessible and unknown. Explored avalanche-hazardous areas make up about 10-15% of the overall territory. During the period of observations from 1949 through 2007, over 75 thousand snow avalanches were recorded in the Kyrgyz Republic with the total volume about 1.5 billion cubic meters of snow.

Avalanche risk differs between regions. The most intensive avalanche activity is noted in the basins of rivers Chatkal and Chichkan, which have 400 – 700 avalanches per year; in the basins of rivers Suusamyr, Western Karakol, Kek Art, Chon Kemin, and Isfraimsai – from 120 to 220 avalanches are observed annually. Highland areas of the Central Tyan Shan have not been explored in detail, which prevents estimates of risk in this region. The few data available from occasional surveys and evidence from mountain-climbers, however, show that avalanches here can reach significant volumes and descend throughout the year.

Gigantic avalanches and foehn snow slides with a total volume exceeding a million cubic meters are not infrequent events in highland areas. In the PadshaAta river basin an avalanche with the volume of 6.4 million m 3 was recorded; in UzunAkmat – 4 million m3; in Enilchek – 2.2 million m3; in Chichkan (Kochkubulak) – 2.5 million m3; in Isfraimsai – 1.3 million m3; and in Suusamyr – 1 million m3.

In terms of the amount of harm, late spring and early fall frosts have a significant impact on agriculture. While events such as hail, squall, etc are local in character, frosts can cover vast territories at a time. Frosts are classed as an EHH if in the growing season air or soil surface temperature drops below 0 0C on the area covering more than 30% of the farmland territory. If in the growing season air or soil surface temperature drops on the area covering less than 30% of the farmland territory, frosts are classes as a HH. Due to the great variety of climate conditions in Kyrgyzstan dates of late spring and early fall frosts vary considerably between different regions.

The risk of frosts in the warmest regions of Kyrgyzstan, the cotton growing areas of Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken, remains in spring until April. The probability of their occurrence at this time is between 3 and 6%. Early fall frosts, in October, have a probability of occurrence of between 6 and 11%. For the rest of the territory, the frostfree period is even shorter. In the piedmont areas of the above regions and in the Chuisk valley, the probability of frosts in late May is between 3 and 6%; in the Talas valley it is up to 11%. In early September, the probability of frosts in the Talas valley is between 6 and 20%; in late September, it is between 48 and 83%. In mid September there is a risk of frosts in the Chuisk valley and in the piedmont areas of Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken regions (probability is between 3 and 7%), in late September the range of probabilities of frosts increases to between 3 and 29%.

In the Issyk-Kul hollow, the probability of frosts in late May is in the range between 16 and 26%. In some areas, they are possible even in early June with a probability between 6 and 9%. Fall frosts can occur in late September where the probability is between 3 and 35%, increasing to more than 70% in the northeast of the hollow). In Naryn region, late spring frosts persist until early to mid June with a probability of occurrence between 3 and 15%; early fall frosts begin in early to mid September with range of probabilities between 6 and 59%. In the Kochkor valley in some years frost are possible throughout the whole growing season, their probability in July-August is between 1 and 40%.

Meteorological and hydrological droughts are becoming more frequent in the country similar to other countries of Central Asia. Meteorological drought refers to deficit of precipitation compared to long-term averages and is specific to location and season. Hydrological drought is a deficit of surface or surface water supply resulting from precipitation shortfalls. Since farming in Kyrgyzstan is mainly irrigated the next significant risk factor is low precipitation and the lack of water in rivers in the growing season (April-September). Drought is very dangerous particularly in spring or early summer. Between 1975 and 2004 in Chuisk, Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken regions 13 to 33% of years experienced drought in the growing season.

Strong wind often occurs in the Issyk-Kul hollow. It damages houses, power and communication lines and crops and hampers operation of the Issyk-Kul shipping company.

Heavy hail damages agricultural crops.

Heavy precipitation (40-75 mm per day) in Chuisk, Osh and Jalal-Abad regions occurs once in 10 years (10%-occurrence).

Occurring in winter it, in addition to forming avalanche centers, damages houses and buildings (ruin roofs) and hampers traffic.

Occurring in warm season in the form of rainstorms, it forms mudflow centers and causes crust on farmlands and crop lodging.

Drastic weather changes (DWC) normally do not cause significant damage if they do not end with frost, primarily in late spring and early fall.

1.2.2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DAMAGE ESTIMATES METHOD OF ESTIMATES Socio-economic impacts of meteorological risks (in the aggregate and by types of EHHs and HHs) were estimated on the basis of the integration of losses suffered by the economy due to specific hydrometeorological events (e.g. by mudflows and floods, strong wind, frosts, drought).

Two parameters are used to estimate the meteorological risk of impact of certain events on the economy: (i) Hazard of event impact (or its climate frequency/frequency of its occurrence);

16

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

(ii) Vulnerability to event impact (an absolute value of economic losses caused by the event in case of both correct and incorrect forecasts/warnings).

Economic damage caused by unfavorable weather conditions and hazardous hydrometeorological events is estimated in two stages: (i) the climate hazard of impact of different events (their climate frequency) is estimated on the basis of climate data; and (ii) the vulnerability of the economy to impact of specific HHs and EHHs is estimated.

SOURCES OF INFORMATION Estimates were made on the basis of: • Climate and meteorological database and fragmented economic data of Kyrgyzhydromet; • Operational reports and catalogs of the Main Operations Department of the Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations (MoES. A database of EHHs that caused economic damage including cost estimates has been developed and updated by MoES since 2001; and • Data from available studies or reports.

Information on occurrence and intensity of EHHs is available in technical reports prepared by Kyrgyzhydromet on a regular basis. A report includes information on all EHHs recorded on the territory of Kyrgyzstan during a calendar year. Normally information on damage is given not in monetary terms but in terms of a qualitative assessment, e.g., “Blossoms and ovary of stone fruit crops were affected by late spring frosts”. In case of mudflows information describing damage is given: “Foundations of the bridge were damaged”. Estimates in monetary terms are available only for damage to automobile roads caused by avalanches.

At present, in the Meteorological Forecast Office of the Kyrgyzhydromet, it is possible to sample EHHs and HHs by types electronically (Excel), i.e., winds, thunderstorms, heavy rains, and so on are sampled separately. This task was started in 1990. A search of events by intensity is also possible and it is expected that searching by date and place will also be available.

In the Hydrological Forecast Office of Kyrgyzhydromet paper records of mudflows and floods are available for a period exceeding 30 years2. Since the late 80-s of the last century, however, these data are incomplete. Today the main sources of mudflow information are hydrological fieldposts of Kyrgyzhydromet and regional units of the MoES. In the Anti-Avalanche Office of Kyrgyzhydromet maps of avalancherisk places on automobile roads and other territories are available on paper. This office prepares annual reports on avalanche situation.

Development of databases on EHHs in Kyrgyzhydromet is hindered by staff and technological problems.

MoES’s data are compiled from operational information (situation reports) and do not take into account damages/losses resulting from hydrometeorological hazards, which are below emergency thresholds for various events. Damages from drought and frosts are not normally taken into consideration because economic losses suffered from these events are not immediate, but become evident only in subsequent periods. In operational reports and catalogs of MoES material damages are described primarily in terms of qualitative assessment (list and quantity of damages). Information on losses provided in monetary terms is fragmentary.

There are major differences in approaches used by MoES and Kyrgyzhydromet in registering hazards. Kyrgyzhydromet registers hydrometeorological events (hazards) based on the exceedence of specific thresholds established for various physical parameters (e.g. wind speed, precipitation, temperature – see Annex 1) measured at hydrometeorological stations. Additionally, the event is classified as EHH if it covers more than 30% of oblast’s territory. In contrast, MoES registers hazards based on damage (human, physical or monetary) in each administrative unit (district). The same hydrometeorological event, which causes damages in several districts, will be registered as a separate hazard in each of these districts. MoES data is relatively more reliable in terms of losses and much more complete in terms of geographical coverage (particularly after reduction of hydrometeorological networks in 1980s and 1990s). Unfortunately, unlike Kyrgyzhydromet records the MoES records are relatively short and they do not record droughts and frosts.

RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ESTIMATES OF METEOROLOGICAL RISKS ESTIMATE OF CLIMATE HAZARD OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EVENTS On the basis of statistical data on the number of emergencies on the territory of Kyrgyzstan in 1990-2007 provided by MoES, emergencies were distributed in descending order among Osh, Jalal-Abag, Chuisk, Naryn, Batken (incomplete series since the region was established in 1999), Issyk-Kul, Naryn and Talas regions. The maximum number of emergencies was recorded in 1994 and 2002, the minimum number – in 1992. The average number of all recorded emergencies in this period was 150 per year. By types recorded, emergencies are distributed in the following way: mudflows and floods – 29%; landslides and rock falls – 16%; snow avalanches – 10%; man-made emergencies – 10%; meteorological emergencies (wind, rainstorm, snowfall, hail and other) – 9%; earthquakes – 9%; other – 7%; infectious diseases of people and animals – 5%; water-logging – 5%.

2

At that time the Hydrographic Mudflow Unit of Kyrgyzhydromet responsible for surveying mudflow centers, estimating volume of descended mudflow mass and mapping mudflow-risk regions was closed. The second factor contributing to the dramatic decrease in mudflow and flood information was the reduction of the hydrological observational network by nearly 50%.

17

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

According to Table 1.1, based on the statistical data of the MoES, the frequency of hydrometeorological events (mudflows, floods, avalanches, rainstorms, hurricane wind, hail, snowfall) in the period under consideration is 74 events per year on the average.

Hydrometeorological emergencies aggregate about 1/2 of total number of all emergencies registered by MoES in 20012007 and present the most harmful and continuous natural hazard of impact on the economy and population.

Table 1.1 Statistical data on the number of recorded natural, man-made, ecological and biosocial emergencies on the territory of Kyrgyzstan for the period of 2001 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2007 by types of events.

Types of events Mudflows and floods Landslides * Avalanches Earthquakes * Water logging * Rainstorms Land subsidence * Erosion * Formation of ravines * Largescale fires **

2001 9 5 4 21 7 23 4 2 3 24

2002 95 19 12 14 20 3

2003 43 47 25 11 5 9

2004 46 53 23 16 4 2

2005 44 31 21 21 4 11

2006 33 13 30 12 8 13 0

14

6

17

16

21

39

Total 340 173 129 112 52 64 4 2 3 137

Infections, invasions *

29

13

7

12

2

16

14

93

24 4 3

104 58 25 31 20 20 1367

Man-made accidents, including major road accidents*** 15 17 10 15 23 Hurricane force wind 20 12 2 9 5 6 Hail 15 1 2 3 1 Snowfall 8 3 8 2 2 8 Rock falls, landfalls * 2 2 2 4 5 Other 16 2 1 1 Total: 192 241 166 200 181 185 * Events, which are not monitored by Kyrgyzhydromet on a regular basis with a view of their detection and forecasting. ** Including industrial and household fires. *** Including damages/accidents in industry, energy sector, municipal sector, etc.

2007 70 5 14 17 4 3

5 202

Source: Information on the number of recorded emergencies was provided by experts of the KR MoES â&#x20AC;&#x201C; see Annex 3.

Fig. 1.5 summarizes estimates of annual frequency of occurrence of the most dangerous hydrometeorological hazards by types, based on available data. Hydrological hazards are characterized by the highest occurrence. For mudflows, statistics show a total of 32.1 occurrences per year for the period 1990-2007. This frequency increases for 2001-2007 and similar trend is noted for other weather hazards. Estimates of snow avalanches occurrence resulted in a total of 15.1 emergency situations per year, while floods occurrences per year are estimated to be 10.9 for 1990-2007. For meteorological events the highest annual occurrence refers to rainstorms (5.6 emergency situations) and hurricane force winds (4.5 emergency situations). Snowfalls and hail frequencies are considerably lower (2.6 and 1.6 occurrences per year, respectively).

Figure 1.5 Average annual frequency of EHHs and HHs occurrence in Kyrgyzstan (based on data for 2001-2007)

18

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

According to the Kyrgyzhydromet‘s data for the period of 1996-2005, the frequency of EHHs events has increased by a factor of 1.7 compared with the period of 1986-1995. These data are given in Table 1.2. It might be argued that in reality this increase, particularly for local hydrometeorological hazards (HHs), was even greater because the quantity of observation sites registering HHs has significantly reduced in two decades (see Fig. 2.5 and 2.6).

Table 1.2 Statistical data on the number of recorded natural, man-made, ecological and biosocial emergencies on the territory of Kyrgyzstan for the period of 2001 – 2007 by types of events.

EHHs

1986-1995 1996-2005 1986-2005 Source: Kyrgyzhydromet data * – no data on HHs for 1993

number of occurrences 55 95 150

HHs

frequency of occurrence 5.5 9.5 7.5

number of occurrences 1362* 1476 2838*

frequency of occurrence 151.3* 147.6 149.4

ESTIMATES OF VULNERABILITY OF THE ECONOMY TO HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS The impact of weather on the economy is manifested in the form of weather-related losses suffered by economic entities of different sectors. The losses differ depending on the specific features of an entity’s operation and capacity to resist impacts (technologies, resources, protection measures, adequate hydrometeorological information and capability to take appropriate management decisions for the current moment). According to Kyrgyzhydromet experts’ assessment, almost all key sectors of the economy are exposed to significant impact of weather and climate phenomena.

Average annual economic losses by types of hydrometeorological events were estimated, first, on the basis of summarized data on EHHs and HHs taken from the catalogs of MoES for 2000-2007. According to MoES records, by absolute value of vulnerability, mudflows and floods rank first.

Box 1.2 presents qualitative description and economic damages estimates for Jalal-Abad region caused by rainstorms triggered mudflows at nights of 14-15 and 22-23 April 2007. Aggregated economic damage is estimated at KGS8.1 million and KGS55 million respectively. Not all mudflows are so damaging; for instance, a mudflow recorded in Jalal-Abad region on 16 July resulted in economic damage of KGS180,000.

Box 1.2. Impact of rainstorms and mudflows in districts of Jalal-Abad region in 2007 Jalal-Abad region Night of 14-15.04.07

Mudflow

Aksyi district

KGS8,1 million

Mudflow trigged by heavy rains hit at night. Karasuu: 19 household outbuildings ruined; 2 bridges damaged; 3 cars thrown of the road.

Zhuzuzman: 1 road blocked; road Karazhygach-Sarychelek closed for traffic. Karazhigach: 157 heads of small cattle and 26 heads of cattle killed.

Charbak: 126 households submerged.

Night of 22-23.04.07

Mudflow

Suzak district

KGS15 million

Mudflow trigged by heavy rains hit at night. Kyzyltu: 165 households submerged. Suzak: 239 households submerged.

Night of 22- 23.04.07

Mudflow

Bazarkorgon District

KGS33, 7 million

Mudflow trigged by heavy rains hit at night. Kenesh: 628 households submerged. Beshikzhon: 17 households submerged. Akman: 207 households submerged. Kyzy-Oktyabr: 30 households submerged; 8 residential houses damaged; 30 heads of small cattle killed. Taldy-Bulak: road blocked.

Night of 22-23.04.07

Mudflow

Nooken District

KGS2 million

Mudflow trigged by heavy rains hit at night. Tamaryk-Nooken: 47 households submerged, 1 residential house ruined, bridge partly ruined. Burgundu: 369.1 ha of farmland submerged, 35-40 gabion mesh structures flushed away, a 10-15 m dam flushed away

Night of 22-23.04.07

Mudflow

Maili-Suu Town

KGS 4,6 million

Mudflow trigged by heavy rains hit at night. 2 automobile bridges damaged; road blocked. Kok Tash: 4 sais silted; 10 residential houses submerged; 600 m of Burgundu – Maili-Suu road blocked; 750 m of Maili-Suu – Sarybe road blocked.

Water level rise on the Maili-Suu River eroded shores and washed out 2 support structures of the central gas pipeline.

Source: Catalog of MoES for 2007.

19

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

The high impact hazard is caused by snow avalanches. Each year avalanches result in emergencies and loss of life on highland automobile roads (see Fig 1.6). Particularly dangerous snow avalanches can occur on the main automobile road of Kyrgyzstan – Bishkek-Osh, connecting Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken regions in the south with those located in the north, as well as for the roads Ala-Buka – Kanysh-Kiya in the Chatkal valley, Karakal – Sary-ZhazInylchek in the east of the Issyk-Kul hollow, and for settlements located in the piedmont and mountainous areas3. According to official estimates, some 150,000 people (23,000 families) living in remote villages in the Kyrgyz Republic are exposed to both socio-economic and disaster related risks, especially in the winter time when roads are blocked (UNDP, 2008a). In highland areas avalanches also cause extensive damage to power lines.

Box 1.3 presents a case of hail emergency recorded in Chuisk region on 7 May 2002 that caused damage to the agriculture of 6 districts. It contains information on type and quantity of losses and their economic assessment. Totally agricultural losses amounted to KGS159 million.

Box 1.3 Example of impact of hail on agriculture in Chuisk region Chuisk district 7.05.02

hail

Headed grain crops – 1103 ha, perennial grasses – 486 ha, perennial crops – 112 ha, beet – 92 ha, oil crops 20 ha Preliminary damage – KGS9.6 million YssykAtin district

7.05.02

hail

Winter wheat – 3615.6 ha, spring barley – 157.7 ha, sugar beet 118.4 ha, corn – 26.7 ha Preliminary damage – KGS27 million Sokuluk district

7.05.02

hail

Vegetable crops – 46 ha, sugar beet 150 ha, headed grain crops – 319 ha, perennial grasses – 58 ha Preliminary damage – KGS2.2 million Zhaiyl district

7.05.02

hail

Rainfed crops – 469 ha, sugar beet – 232 ha, vegetables – 244 ha Preliminary damage – KGS51.8 million Moscow district

7.05.02

hail

Winter wheat – 80 ha, beet – 22 ha, fruits – 80 ha Preliminary damage – KGS1.4 million Panfilov district

7.05.02

hail

Headed grain crops – 7250 ha, corn –13 ha, sugar sweet 1013 ha, safflower – 30 ha; orchards – 215 ha Preliminary damage – KGS67 million

Source: Catalog of MoES for 2002

However, the main weather-related risks for the Kyrgyz economy, and primarily its agrarian sector and rural population, are droughts particularly combined with low water in rivers, winter thaw (for winter crops), and late spring and early fall frosts as well.

Kyrgyzhydromet reported that severe droughts occurred in Batken and Talas regions in 2001 and 2002. Chuisk, Jalal-Abad and Naryn regions suffered from droughts in 2006, 2007, and 2008.

During the 2007-2008 winter, the Kyrgyz Republic like the rest of Central Asia experienced extremely cold temperatures for a prolonged period, making it the worst winter in 44 years. As stated in a UNDP report (UNDP, 2009), the cold weather restricted inflows into Toktogul reservoir while surging demand for heat and electricity led to large water releases and sharp declines in water levels. The low water levels in the hydropower reservoirs after the cold winter were exacerbated by abnormally low precipitation and hot weather in the spring and summer of 2008. Precipitation during October 2007–April 2008 was 50-80% below norm.

These dry trends were accompanied by higher than average temperatures, particularly during the second quarter of the year and below normal river flows.

Official statistical data on drought-related economic losses is not available. Estimates of average annual losses from this phenomenon are based on the assessment of an agriculture expert using data from Chuisk regional administration. For instance, on 16-17 April, 2008 Chuisk and Talas regions suffered from morning frosts of minus 4 to 6 C, while all the oblasts experienced 3 The most significant losses caused by avalanches are recorded on the automobile road Osh-Bishkek, in particular its section between 216 and 265 km. Even the overall waiting time of transport vehicles, when the road is closed due to the avalanche risk or cleaned from snow, is as long as 170 to 290 hours per year.

Avalanches constantly cause closing of the road due to the avalanche risk or cleaning from snow, but in some years they cover both cars and people. In the period between 1995 and 2006, at this road section, 27 cars were thrown off the road and 7 persons were lost.

20

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

drought resulting in the poor yield of all the crops, especially on the rainfed lands. That also led to the deterioration of the grass stand on the pastures, with the resulting extremely negative impact on the yield of livestock products and productivity of farm livestock. According to expert’s estimate, economic losses in Chuisk Region may be as high as KGS2.2 billion, while the aggregate countrywide losses could have been over KGS 3 billion.

Total annual losses suffered by economy of the country due to weather hazards were estimated on the basis of available information on the average annual frequency of event occurrence and damage calculated per one event. Table 1.3 summarizes results of hydrometeorological risk assessment by types of weather events.

Table 1.3 Economic estimates of impact of hydrometeorological hazards on the economy of Kyrgyzstan (in prices of 2006) Hazards

Mudflows* Floods Avalanches Rainstorms Hurricane force wind Hail Snowfall Frosts *** Drought *** Total

Average annual frequency of occurrence, number of events per year during 1990-2007 32.1 (36.7) ** 10.9 (11.9) 15.1 (18.4) 5.6 (9.1) 4.5 (8.3)

Maximum registered economic losses per 1 event, KGS million 113.8 18.1 1.1 8.2 5

Average annual economic losses (2001-2007) per 1 event, KGS million 11.9 4.8 0.8 2.9 0.7

1.6 (3.6) 2.6 (4.4) 2 0.5

87 4.7 1,800.00 750

13.5 2.8 150 580

Average annual economic losses**** KGS million

USD million

383.9 52.3 12.1 16.2 3.2

9.7 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.1

21.6 7.3 300.0 290.0 1086.6

0.5 0.2 7.5 7.3 27.3

* For 2005-2007 MoES records do not separate mudflows and floods ** Figures in italic (in parentheses) are average annual frequency of EHHs occurrence for 2001-2007 *** Average annual frequency of occurrence and losses are calculated for 2000-2007 based on Kyrgyzhydromet and sectoral expert’s estimates **** Calculated as average annual losses for 2001-2007 multiplied on annual frequency for 1990-2007. For frosts and drought estimate on losses in 2008 were taken into consideration Source: Author’s estimates based on available MoES and Kyrgyzhydromet data, and experts’ assessments

According to preliminary author’s estimates these losses are about KGS1100 million or USD27 million (1.1% of the average annual level of GDP for the period of 2000-2007). Frosts and droughts may cause more than half of the economy’s weather related damages. These meteorological hazards impose very serious meteorological risk to the country’s economy, resulting in energy, water and food insecurities.

Among other high-impact weather hazards, mudflows and floods have greatest impact on the economy and population both in terms of frequency of occurrence and in absolute amounts of material and monetary losses. The losses from those events were calculated for occurrence for the period 1990-2007 (32.1 and 10.9 per annum, respectively), and amounted totally to USD11 million. Taking into account the increase of their occurrence in 2001-2007, the related annual economic losses would rise to USD12.4 million.

Taken together, the impacts of mudflows, floods, frosts, and droughts account for about 95% of the average annual losses of the economy due to EHHs and HHs. In formulating and implementing priority areas of development and technical and technological modernization of Kyrgyzhydromet attention, therefore, should be primarily focused on better observation and forecasting of these hydrometeorological hazards.

1.3. WEATHER-DEPENDENCE OF ECONOMY The weather dependence of the economy is defined in this report as the cumulative share of weather-dependent sectors in the national GDP. Almost all sectors are directly or indirectly affected by extreme hydrometeorological hazards and hydrometeorological hazards. Specific impacts and mitigation efforts, however, vary depending on the nature of production operations and technologies in a specific sector, and the capacity of the sector to use hydrometeorological climate information.

The list of weather-dependent sectors was defined by the experts from Kyrgyzhydromet and clarified based on the survey among experts from weather-dependent sectors, and meteorological risk assessment. These sectors includes: agriculture, hunting and forestry, transport and communications, construction, energy (power and gas production and distribution), housing and public utilities (provision of communal, personal and social services), health, leisure, sports (health care and provision of social services), mining (see Table 1.4).

21

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Table 1.4 Share of major weather-dependent sectors in GDP (% of GDP), average for the period of 2002-2006 Sector Agriculture Transport and communications Construction Energy (power and gas production and distribution) HPU (provision of communal, personal and social services) Health, leisure, sports (health care and provision of social services) Mining Total

Average 31.7 5.6 3.0 3.9 1.3 1.9 0.5 47.8

Agriculture is the leading sector of the Kyrgyzstan economy (32% of GDP in 2002-2006) noted for well-developed farming and cattle breeding. The sector employs the majority (over 65 %) of the labor force. Both farming and cattle breeding are very vulnerable to the weather and are affected (particularly plant growing) by almost the entire range of hydrometeorological hazards and DWC during the whole year, which largely defines the level of total damage to the economy. This is attributed to the specific features of agriculture: continuous exposure to weather, the seasonal nature of operations, vast areas for cultivation and care, as well as the lack of efficient measures to protect agricultural crops from EHH and HH events. Of particular concern are: droughts, winter thaws and spring /autumn frosts, low water levels in rivers, and hail.

Snow avalanches pose the greatest threat for motor vehicles (transport and communications is the second largest weatherdependent sector in terms of share in GDP).

The energy sector (3.9% of GDP) in Kyrgyzstan is responsible for power generation and distribution: in 2007 it produced 14.6 GWh of electricity and 2.9 Gcal of heat energy. The country’s electricity needs are largely supplied by a cascade of hydroelectric powerplants on the Naryn River. It generates some 93% of domestically consumed electricity. The Toktogul hydroelectric plant (reservoir with active storage capacity of 14.5 billion cubic meters and hydropower station with annual electricity generation capacity of 1.2 GW), is the largest in Central Asia. Up to 2.5 billion kWh are annually exported to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. Despite being a power exporter, Kyrgyzstan suffers electricity deficit, which largely depends on the efficient management of hydropower generation, spare capacities and power distribution. Accurate weather information, as well as the leadtime of EHH warnings, plays a significant role in decision making in this sector.

Kyrgyzstan possesses considerable water resources with the total volume being estimated at over 2000 km3, of which about 50 km3 are provided by river runoff, about 15 km3 by ground waters, over 1500 km3 from lakes, and over 650 km3 from glacier waters. Consideration for weather factors is an extremely important component of water management and distribution for the needs of agriculture and local communities, and the export of irrigation water to neighboring countries (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan).

The average aggregate share of weather-dependent sectors in Kyrgyzstan during the period under review made up 51.1% of GDP. Therefore, the overall Kyrgyzstan economy can be characterized as the one with “medium” weather dependence.

Table 1.5 provides the data on the weather-dependence of the national economy in Kyrgyzstan and in a sample of ECA countries where the World Bank conducted an economic assessment of efficacy of potential NMHS’s modernization programs (see World Bank, 2008c), The value of this indicator for Kyrgyzstan is somewhat higher than in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan (see Table 1.5), comparable to Azerbaijan but considerably lower than in Armenia and Georgia where the share of agriculture equals 30 and 25% of GDP, respectively. However, Armenia and Georgia have other developed sectors of their economy. In terms of the role of agriculture in the economy and its contribution to weather dependence, Kyrgyzstan stands out against all countries under review.

1.4. SUMMARY Table 1.5 Weather-dependence of Kyrgyzstan and comparator countries where similar studies were performed Country Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan

Share of weatherdependent sectors, % of GDP 51 69 62 43 42 61 48

Share of agriculture, % of GDP

Source: World Bank. 2008.c and author’s estimates

22

12 30 25 7.0 18 20 32

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Kyrgyzstan is a mountainous region, frequently exposed to droughts and heavy precipitation resulting in mudflows, floods and snow avalanches. Agriculture contributes to about 32% of the Kyrgyz GDP and is particularly vulnerable to weather and climate hazards. Overall about half of the Kyrgyz economy is sensitive to weather and climate hazards with up to KGS1,100 million (approximately USD40 million) in losses experienced in a single year, which is equivalent to 1.1% of GDP.

23

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY ASSESSMENT OF KYRGYZ HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 2.1. LEGAL, ORGANIZATIONAL AND FINANCIAL ASPECTS, STAFFING 2.1.1. BRIEF HISTORY OF KYRGYZ HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE The first meteorological station in Kyrgyzstan was established in 1856 by the Russian traveler N. Severtsev in Ak-Suu village near Lake Issyk-Kul. In 1881 a meteorological station was opened in Osh, in September in Karakol, and in October in fort Gulcha.

In August 1885 a meteorological station in Naryn became operational. Later on meteorological stations were established in forts Irkeshtam (1889), Balykchi (1894), Tokmok (1896), and Bishkek (1896).

In the first decade of the 20th century, 13 meteorological stations were operating in Kyrgyzstan. In 1925-1935, over 20 stations were established, including the one located at 3600 m above sea level (Tyan Shan station). The National Hydrometeorological Service of Kyrgyzstan was established on 26 August 1926.

Hydrological observations started in Kyrgyzstan in the second half of the 19th century. The first hydrological post (Khodzhabakirgan) was opened in 1869, followed by posts in Ak-Buura (1881), Shakhimardan (1896), Chu (1899) and Dzhirgalan (1903).

By the mid-1970s surface water monitoring was performed at 149 hydrological posts of Kyrgyzhydromet; in 1992 the number of posts decreased to 118, and at present there are only 76 posts on rivers, 4 on Lake Issyk-Kul, and 1 on the Kirov water reservoir.

Systematic agrometeorological observations started in 1931, when an agrometeorological unit was established. Its main objective was to conduct agrometeorological observations and provide services to agricultural enterprises in Kyrgyzstan.

Until the 1980s hydrometeorological studies in Kyrgyzstan had been expanding both in terms of the number of observational sites, and the scope of observations. In 1985, the meteorological network comprised 78 stations. Later the number of stations and posts started decreasing. In some cases closing was justified, since stations were located in similar climate conditions and duplicated each other but the main reason for reduction was the lack of funds to finance network operations.

2.1.2. NMHS ACTIVITIES As the member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, through its NMHS, provides the international meteorological community access to data from the national observational network, and receives information from other countries’ NMHS. The activities of the NMHS are regulated by the laws and resolutions of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan. On June 8, 2006 the Law on Hydrometeorological Activities in the Kyrgyz Republic was adopted, which defines: 1. Major areas of public regulation in hydrometeorology: a.Establish and ensure functioning of the public observational network; b.Provide data on the actual and forecasted condition of the natural environment, including urgent information, to public authorities and population; c. Establish public hydrometeorological information resources, develop and maintain a single public fund of environmental data; d.Participate in international cooperation in hydrometeorology; 2. The Law defines NMHS activities in meteorology, hydrology and environmental pollution monitoring 3. The main functions of the Hydrometeorological Service are to: a.Implement continuous observations of the climate system and environmental conditions; b.Provide public authorities, sectors of economy and population with data on the actual and forecasted environmental conditions, current and special-purpose (including urgent) hydrometeorological information.

The work program of NMHS identifies the major areas, types and scope of activities in hydrology, meteorology, agricultural meteorology, aerology, actinometry, and environmental monitoring.

The hydrometeorological observational network includes 32 meteorological stations (at 30 stations meteorological observations are performed according to M-II program, and at others – according to М-III program)4 and 81 hydrological stations and posts (76 runoff posts, 4 water level posts at lakes and 1 at the water reservoir), 3 snow avalanche stations and 31 agrometeorological observation sites. 30 meteorological stations are benchmark sites, i.e., those intended for homogeneous continuous observations providing data to reveal secular climate change trends.

4

M-II and M-III are observation programs, providing for a set of hydrometeorological parameters according to directions valid since the former USSR Manual.

M-II observation program directs for roundtheclock observations. M-III observation program considers 8 due times of observations.

24

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

The NMHS produces warnings about natural disasters (such as mudflows, floods, avalanches, frosts, heavy precipitation), drastic weather changes; short, medium and long-term weather forecasts, hydrological forecasts including those of the beginning and extent of flooding, formation of rainfall floods and mudflow development, as well as agrometeorological forecasts.

Public authorities and administrations receive daily hydrometeorological bulletins (weather forecast for 1-3 days); 10-day agrometeorological bulletins, monthly weather forecasts, and data on precipitation accumulated during the autumnwinter period.

They receive hydrological forecasts of water content in rivers and inflow in major reservoirs for the growing season (April-September) and low water period (October-March), 5-day forecasts for rivers in irrigated farming areas, 10-day and quarterly forecasts of water inflow in major reservoirs). They also receive seasonal agrometeorological reviews for the Kyrgyzstan territory for spring, summer, autumn, and winter. All information products are disseminated in hard copies. In addition, storm warnings about hazardous hydrometeorological events are communicated on a real-time basis.

The regulatory and methodological framework for the operation of the Kyrgyz State meteorological service is provided in manuals and guidelines on the organization and implementation of meteorological, hydrological and agrometeorological observations, data transmission and processing, production of various advance-time forecasts and warnings about extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events. NMHS departments continue to use manuals and guidelines that were in force at the USSR Hydrometeorological Service before 1992. Since then the NMHS has performed some limited scientific and methodological research on how to improve and update the existing manuals and guidelines, and several documents have been prepared and approved by the Head of the NMHS. Annual reports on NMHS activities are prepared and disseminated among the public authorities and administrations. According to the NMHS, public authorities and administrations, as well as industrial sector agencies generally estimate the performance of Kyrgyzhydromet Headquarters and its branches as satisfactory. It should be noted that NMHS stakeholders are well aware about its difficult conditions and constraints and thus this satisfactory estimate is based on their understanding on what is achievable under current circumstances. Besides, there is an overall lack of knowledge about modern weather and hydrological products.

Since the establishment of Kyrgyzhydromet as an independent NMHS, and up until the present time, the world hydrometeorological practice has developed new methods of data collection, processing and analysis, and advanced weather forecasting techniques; the amount and range of information products (analyses and forecasts) have increased; new methodologies for providing the users with hydrometeorological information have appeared. The regulatory and methodological framework of routine operations of Kyrgyzhydromet has become obsolete and fails to meet modern requirements, especially with respect to observational and forecasting facilities.

The problem facing the National Service is that, despite the efforts made under international assistance projects to support Kyrgyzhydromet, the quality of services provided to national and regional users remains low, and the quality and quantity of observational data transmitted to the WMO GTS continues to decline. This is related, primarily, to the shortage of resources to finance operational costs, lack of funding to procure new equipment and technologies. This has resulted in the degradation of the meteorological observing networks, data collection and processing systems, and human resources of the NMHS. The decrease in qualified personnel is also related to the lack of national and regional level system of staff training/retraining and professional upgrading.

2.1.3. INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE The institutional structure of the NMHS (see Fig. 2.1 on page 26) is based on functional and territorialadministrative principles, and includes units at the NMHS Headquarters, and territorial branches – Hydrometeorological Centers – (HMC) in the regions.

2.1.4. REGIONAL CENTERS Kyrgyzhydromet includes four regional centers for hydrometeorology (CHM): • Naryn HMC – Naryn, Naryn Region • Osh HMC – Osh, Osh Region (see Fig 2.2 on page 26) • Jalal-Abad HMC – Jalal-Abad, Jalal-Abad Region (see Fig. 2.3 on page 26) • Karakol HMC – Karakol, Issyk-Kul Region In Talas and Batken Regions, the hydrometeorological service functions of HMC are performed by Regional Hydrometeorological Services (RMHS). In Chuisk Region, hydrometeorological services are provided by the Department of Hydrometeorological Observations, Forecasts and Information (HMC). It should be noted that CHM performs no operational and forecasting functions although they have operational and forecasting units. All forecasts are produced at the Department of Hydrometeorological Observations, Forecasts and Information, and then communicated (by phone) to HMC. In practice, operational and forecasting units disseminate forecasting data among the users of hydrometeorological information within their respective regions.

According to the regulations, the CHM functions are to: supervise the operation of units located in their respective regions and to provide them with instruments, equipment and expendables; collect and transmit data to the Data Collection Center in Bishkek; provide services to users, first and foremost, public authorities and local administrations; execute and manage contracts with users;

25

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Fig. 2.1 Institutional Structure of the Main Department of Hydrometeorology (Kyrgyzhydromet) of the Ministry of Emergencies of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan

Fig. 2.2 Institutional Structure of Osh Regional Hydrometeorological Center

Fig. 2.3 Institutional Structure of Karakol, Naryn and Jalal-Abad Regional Hydrometeorological Centers

provide training to local staff. The CHM are Kyrgyzhydromet branches responsible for providing hydrometeorological services within their respective regions.

In practice, however, the HMC fail to implement their functions. Data collection from stations and observation sites is performed by the Department of Communications and Information of the Kyrgyzhydromet Headquarters in Bishkek. HMC perform no verifica-

26

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

tion of data completeness and quality; do not monitor the condition of measuring devices; are unaware of the plans for equipment of stations and observation sites, execution of rehabilitation works, and take no part in the development of such plans. The level of technical equipment of CHM (communications, computerization, office supplies and transport) is extremely low, and does not allow receipt of the required information products from the NMHS Headquarters to be able to judge the NMHS requirements.

Provision of hydrometeorological services to the users (local authorities and administrations, state-owned and commercial enterprises, and mass media) is actually confined to communication of forecasts without any feedback. The CHM staff is not sufficiently qualified to receive information products and develop/prepare materials for the users.

The institutional, technical and staff capacity of the CHM does not allow them to properly implement their management functions, support the operation of stations and observation sites, and develop cooperation with the users of NMHS products. The weakness of CHMs is a factor in the stagnation in cooperation with users and meeting their needs for information products of Kyrgyzhydromet.

If the current situation persists, the NMHS will be unable to fully utilize the capacity that could be/is being established through investments in the national service under the assistance programs. Institutional and technological strengthening of regional CHM should be an important consideration in any NMHS modernization.

2.1.5. NMHS BUDGET Ensuring that there is sufficient current funding to support adequately the NMHS presents a serious challenge. The total budget of Kyrgyzhydromet does not allow technical upgrading of the observational network in compliance with international standards and requirements. The dynamics of NMHS funding during the recent years is shown in tables below.

It follows from the data in Table 2.1 that during 2000-2007 the largest expense item is salary and social charges which amounted to 85% of the total budget in 2007. Capital investments are not budgeted at all, and replacement of capital assets, including procurement of measuring devices, repair, and equipment is, on average, less than 4 %.

Table 2.1 Dynamics and breakdown of budget financing of the NMHS, excluding the environmental monitoring branches.

2000 6318.6

2001 6141.4

2002 9735.7

2003 10993.8

2004 11687

2005 14200.8

2006 17996.8

2007 22272,4

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

61

71

79

82

77

77

72

85

Rations

6

6

5

3

5

4

4

3

Utility charges

8

10

6

7

2

5

5

4

Communication and postal services

12

11

6

6

14

8

8

2

Maintenance of the observation network, including office costs, administrative costs, travel costs, soft equipment (without rations)

4

1

1

2

2

1

3

2

Actual proceeds from all budget sources (in current thousand KGS) Actual proceeds from all budget sources , in % Including expenditure items (in % of total): Salary and social charges

Fuel and lubricants

3

0

1

1

1

1

2

1

Funds for contracting specialists (computer repair, etc.)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Replacement of capital assets, including procurement of measuring devices, repair, etc Capital investments

6

0

1

0

0

4

7

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other expenditure categories

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Total

100

Source: Kyrgyzhydromet data

27

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

2.1.6. STAFFING ARRANGEMENTS The total number of staff at the NMHS is 548 persons, of whom 466 people are operational staff (Table 2.2). The available 84 vacancies are for specialists of the highest and medium grade. The overall staffing level makes up 85%. The staffing level of engineering labor (office and public sector workers) makes up 95%. The most difficult situation is noted at the Department of Technical Facilities and Measuring Devices where established posts are filled by personnel without adequate special training. Stations and posts of Kyrgyzhydromet mostly employ people from local communities who receive onthejob training. The trend in staff numbers between 1985 and 2005 is shown in Figure 2.4.

Fig. 2.4 Staffing of Kyrgyzhydromet (persons)

Kyrgyzhydromet staff members are on average 40-45 years old. 30% of the staff is over 50 years old. The inflow of young specialists with higher education is small due to the low level of remuneration. Therefore, the extremely small share of professionally trained personnel, and the lack of welldeveloped system of staff training and retraining are the main challenges of the staff capacity of Kyrgyzhydromet. Institutional strengthening, improvement of the staff and financial sustainability of the NMHS requires implementation of a set of activities aimed at staff training and professional upgrading.

At the same time, generally highly skilled specialists work at the Department of Hydrometeorological Observations, Forecasts and Information (HMC) and Department of Observations and Information on Radioactivity and Environmental Pollution (DOIREP), who can quickly master the newly introduced technologies; a course of skills development will be sufficient for such specialists.

Table 2.2 Established staff size and actual staffing of Kyrgyzhydromet Functional branches Hydrometeorological Center (HMC) Department of Observations and Information on Radioactivity and Environmental Pollution (DOIREP) Department of Communications and information (DCI) Anti-Avalanche Office (AAO) Department of Technical Facilities and Measuring Devices (DT & MD) Repair and Rehabilitation Unit (RRU) Transport Office (TO) Total Source: Kyrgyzhydromet data

Established staff size, number of employees 46 19

Actual staffing level

25

18

10 10.5

2 5

6 15 548

1 11 464

28 17

2.1.7. TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADING PROGRAM The NMHS management actively participates in various meetings and workshops held in CIS countries, as well as seminars organized by international institutions and under international projects.

Insufficient financing of operational costs related to travel expenses and staff development does not allow the NMHS to adequately organize and ensure professional upgrading of network personnel. The Service uses every opportunity (delivery of equipment and fuel/lubricants, inspections, etc.) to brief the personnel of stations and posts on the operation of the newly installed instruments, conduct technical training and elucidation on measuring observations. Kyrgyzhydromet HQ staff also provides written elucidations in response to requests from observation sites. However, this is insufficient to ensure sustainable operation of network

28

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

facilities, and the quality and quantity of obtained data, as well as the intervals of data collection from stations and posts fail to meet modern requirements.

2.1.8. BUILDINGS, FACILITIES AND CAPITAL ASSETS Most office and residential buildings, and special-purpose facilities of the network require capital repair and maintenance.

NMHS keeps records of property including the useful life of office and residential buildings (see Annex 11 to the technical mission report by Kotov, V. and A. Zaitsev, 2008). Kyrgyzhydromet does not have sufficient funds for construction and rehabilitation of all stations, posts and observational facilities Figure 2.5. Sary-Tash Meteorological station building

Source: Kyrgyzhydromet presentation at Consultation Workshop (Bishkek, December 16, 2008)

2.1.9. CONTACTS WITH MASS MEDIA AND COMMUNITIES The NMHS maintains a website in Russian language only.

Weather forecasts for the current day and subsequent 5 days are reported daily to national papers, radio and TV in the form of a printed newsletter and by email. The Head of NMHS regularly appears on TV during periods of anomalous weather events.

Periodically films are prepared for TV-broadcasting; articles are published in republican mass media, Kyrgyzhydromet staff is being interviewed about its activities, NHMS staff is participating in life broadcast WMO experience and recommendations encourage the NMHS to maintain active cooperation with mass media as an important component of NMHS activities to raise awareness of public institutions, private companies and general public about the NMHS, its regional offices, capacity to provide information on current and forecasted environmental conditions. The lack of modern technologies, which would enable the NMHS to receive the required amounts of meteorological information, visualize and prepare it for broadcasting on TV and for posting on the NMHS website, and the lack of ability to create separate applications for individual major users significantly limits the NMHS capacity in this area, including the opportunities to generate additional funds.

2.1.10. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COOPERATION The Kyrgyz Republic is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and by Government decision has appointed the Head of Kyrgyzhydromet as the Permanent Representative of Kyrgyzstan with the WMO. The NMHS closely cooperates with the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), UN Development Program (UNDP), UN Environmental Program (UNEP), and International Aral Sea Rehabilitation Fund (IASRF), Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation.

International cooperation on hydrometeorology is aimed at: â&#x20AC;˘ Exchanging various kinds of scientific and technological information; â&#x20AC;˘ Implementing joint works to improve hydrometeorological services provided to various sectors of economy and local communities.

Activities are being implemented on multilateral and bilateral basis, under intergovernmental and interagency agreements with national agencies and hydrometeorological services of foreign countries and CIS. The agreements stipulate joint studies aimed

29

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

at supporting operational technologies of hydrometeorological data processing, and ensuring more efficient exchange of data, information and products.

Special emphasis in international relations is placed on cooperation with CIS Hydrometeorological Services, which is primarily aimed at preserving the longdeveloped common spatial and technological system of collection, processing and exchange of hydrometeorological and other information.

2.1.11. COMPLETED PROJECTS Between 1994 and 2007, Kyrgyzhydromet received technical assistance under the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program (VCP) including: computers and software, radars and meteorological shells for temperature-wind sounding operations, a satellite data receiver; 54 specialists of Kyrgyzhydromet upgraded their qualification at training workshops; Kyrgyzhydromet officers participated in WMO meetings and conferences representing the interests of the Kyrgyz Republic in the area of meteorology and hydrology. The total amount of technical and educational assistance provided by WMO was about USD200,000 (of which USD9,500 was for CLIWAR)5.

Under Component D “Transboundary Monitoring Stations” of the GEF/WB Water and Environmental Management project (1998-2003), two hydrological posts on the Naryn River were equipped with measuring devices and communication facilities at a cost of USD113,500.

Technical assistance of USD20,900 was provided under the ADB Project REG-6155 on Capacity Building in Environmental Information Management Systems in Central Asia (delivery of equipment and computers to the Department of Observations and Information on Radioactivity and Environmental Pollution). Work was initiated to transform primary data on environmental pollution into electronic format. A GIS program was installed; electronic maps showing environmental pollution data were created that are monthly updated on the Kyrgyzhydromet website.

The Government of Japan, through the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), provided technical assistance to Kyrgyzhydromet in the area of surface water pollution monitoring. Analytical instruments and laboratory equipment for the amount of USD59,000 were procured and installed in Bishkek. Equipment delivery commitments were fully met. The project was completed in November, 2006.

The Natural Resource Management Project (NRMP/USAID) was implemented between 2000 and 2003. A local data network was established for Kyrgyzhydromet, computers installed at HMC offices; the MSC was established in Bishkek and Osh; 6 automated meteorological stations and a communication system installed; and staff training performed. The technical and education assistance was estimated as USD300,000.

More detailed information on technical assistance to Kyrgyzhydromet and the list of delivered instruments and equipment is given in Annex 3-5 to the technical mission report by Kotov, V. and A. Zaitsev, 2008.

2.1.12. ON-GOING PROJECTS For the period 2007-2009 Kyrgyzhydromet is involved in the Regional Project Swiss Support to Hydrometeorological Services in the Aral Sea Basin (SDC, 2006), under which CHF931,000 was committed to Kyrgyzhydromet. These funds are to be used to procure standard hydrological and meteorological instruments to replace inoperative devices and reequip hydrometeorological stations and posts, modernize (replace) the MSC, provide hardware-software HydroPro and software GE-1 intended for the preparation of hydrological yearbooks, and AIS HF software for automated production of hydrological forecasts. The equipment and software is partially instated and being used by NMHS specialists.

Approximately USD800,000 is allocated to strengthen Kyrgyzhydromet through the World Bank ”Water Management Improvement Project” initiated in 2006 and the Japanese grant attached to it. Main objective of this activity is to provide support to key elements of Kyrgyzhydromet system which collects and distributes data on water resources. Initial priority is given to the basins for which Basin Plans will be developed. The procurement of the most critical basic instruments such as thermometers, gauges, current meters, snow monitoring stations, communication and data processing devises is initiated. This equipment will be supplied and installed with the objective to delay further deterioration of the system and provide better data for optimal water resources management.

Unfortunately, in both completed and on-going projects, including the delivery of measuring devices, communication and power supply facilities, have been implemented without proper studies of the NMHS capacity to utilize this capacity. Studies of facilities, the identification of the most efficient investments and technologies, and the design of monitoring and communication facilities, based on international experience, have not been completed. Hence the utility of these assistance programs, including the on-going projects, has not been fully realized.

5

30

CLIWARE – Software for processing of data from meteorological stations, developed by VNIIGMI-MCD (Russia)

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

2.1.13. COORDINATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES WORKING IN THE FIELD OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY The civil aviation sector operates its own meteorological network. Meteorological observations for the needs of local and international aviation are performed by the units of State enterprise “Kyrgyzaeronavigation” which has an agency agreement with Kyrgyzhydromet on data exchange and other activities. There are two main “Kyrgyzaeronavigation” centers in Manas and Osh and 9 small groups in other cities with total staff of 62 people. “Kyrgyzaeronavigation” centers are equipped in line with basic requirements of the International Civil Aviation Organization and provide aviation forecasts TAF, METAR, SIGMET, AIRMET. The information is available to Kyrgyzhydromet (it is provided by aviametcenter “Manas”) but is rarely required in operational activities due to the different format of the observations: no measurements are taken of the minimum and maximum air temperature, as well as halfday precipitation amount. As appropriate, the HMC of Kyrgyzhydromet requests information on extreme and hazardous weather events from meteorological aviation offices. There are no other sectoral or private weather or climate networks in Kyrgyzstan.

2.2. OBSERVATION NETWORK, INFRASTRUCTURE, FACILITIES 2.2.1. NMHS OBSERVATION SYSTEM GROUND-BASED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS Observational results obtained from ground-based meteorological and hydrological stations play an important role in detecting natural disasters, producing high-quality weather and flood forecasts with proper lead time, as well as in water use regulation.

Depending on their purpose, stations record temperature, pressure, humidity, evaporation, wind speed, solar radiation and other radiation balance elements, soil water content, snow cover depth, water content in snow cover, hydrological regime parameters.

SYNOPTIC STATIONS The observational network comprises 32 meteorological stations. Of these, 15 are benchmark stations; i.e., those intended for homogeneous continuous observations providing data to reveal secular climate change trends. Kyrgyzhydromet operates 8 highmountain stations.

The overall hydrometeorological system and its major observational networks, as well as operating principles, were developed before the mid-1970s, and have not been changed since. Meteorological observations at stations and sites are performed in compliance with the Manual for Hydrometeorological Stations and Sites: Issue 3, Part 1 – Meteorological Observations at Stations (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1985), and according to the observation program specified in the manual.

Stations and posts use obsolete instruments, equipment and communication facilities, and require financial investment to rehabilitate operating capacity. Over 90% of them need to be replaced. Most measuring devices have been in operation for over 30 years. Air and soil temperature and atmospheric pressure are measured with mercurycontaining instruments; some of them (e.g., mercury barometer) are no longer manufactured. Almost all measurements are performed manually by Kyrgyzhydromet staff living and working in the field. For example, windmeasuring instruments became inoperative at all meteorological stations, and wind observations are performed using manual observations of a wind vane. Cloud altitude and visibility range are estimated by eye.

Spare parts, required for restoring the operating capacity of measuring devices and equipment, are unavailable. Data on operative meteorological stations and on measuring devices and equipment available at synoptic stations of Kyrgyzhydromet are given Annexes 8-9 to the technical mission report by Kotov, V., and A. Zaitsev, 2008.

It should be noted that observational sites at the stations are in good condition, and station managers take care of them assisted by regular inspections performed by the staff of NMHS HQ. The network of ground-based meteorological observations has been operating six US-manufactured automatic weather stations (AWS) for six years and one Canada-manufactured AWS (with personnel) for 11 years. Unfortunately, measurement results obtained from these stations are not used operationally. Thus, station personnel continue to use vanes in wind parameter observations though it is possible to produce operational reports based on the data of high resolution wind parameters included in the AWS. Similarly, measurements of air temperature and humidity, atmospheric pressure can be obtained from AWS. However, no systematic duplicate observations have been performed to compare measurement results obtained manually and using the AWS. The experience of introducing automatic measuring devices has not been included in training manuals.

Since the mid-1980s, the number of meteorological stations has been reduced from 83 to 32 due budget deficiency (Fig 2.6) Insufficient coverage of highland areas is the main gap in the system of meteorological observations. There is not a single highland meteorological station in the mountainous Naryn region, as well as in the Talas and Batken regions. There are two stations in

31

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Fig. 2.6 Dynamics of Kyrgyzhydromet Meteorogical Network Reduction

Source: Bakanov, 2008

Issyk-Kul and Jalal-Abad regions, one in Osh regions, and three in Chuisk region. The lack of information on precipitation in highland areas significantly affects the quality of forecasts of water content in rivers and water inflow in reservoirs during the growing season at the national and regional levels, as well as the quality of weather forecasts (due to the lack of meteorological observations in the highland areas of Naryn region no weather forecasts are produced for this territory). The lack of information limits the capability of agriculture, energy and water management to mitigate hydrometeorological hazards. Almost no agrometeorological observations are performed at highland pastures.

Unless urgent additional measures are taken to ensure maintenance and technical upgrading of the observational network, further degradation of the ground-based meteorological facilities will continue resulting in gradual reduction of the scope of operations (breakdown of instruments) and possibly closing of stations.

HYDROLOGICAL STATIONS AND POSTS 81 hydrological stations and posts (76 runoff posts, 4 water level posts on lakes and 1 on the reservoir) perform standard hydrological observations in accordance with the manual that had been in use at the USSR network and has never revised by the NMHS of Kyrgyzstan. Since the mid-1980s, the hydrological observation network has been reduced by 48%, and the number of runoff stations and posts has decreased from 147 to 76 due budget deficiency (see Fig. 2.7).

Fig. 2.7 Dynamics of Kyrgyzhydrometeorogical Hydrological Network Reduction

Source: Bakanov, 2008

The operational effectiveness of the hydrological network is low. The data provided by hydrological posts is insufficient to produce reliable and timely flood forecasts using the currently applied techniques. Some posts that were subject to acts of vandalism or destroyed by floods have not been reconstructed.

90% of the Hydrological instruments are worn out. 7 posts measure water flow with remote control hydrometric devices GR-70 and SEBA; 8 posts are using water-level recorders (WLR). Other posts are not using automatic measuring devices, meters and data recorders. The stock of hydrometric current meters is obsolete with no new equipment being procured and spare parts unavailable.

Power supply facilities were not replaced after having exhausted their service life. Life-saving equipment and special wear for safe water operations are non-existent. Hydrometric facilities (passages and bridges) are inoperative at many posts; residential offices and residential facilities require rehabilitation. Equipment of Kyrgyzhydromet hydrological network as of June 1, 2008 is given Annex 10 to the technical mission report by Kotov, V. and A. Zaitsev, 2008.

There is an operative motor boat at Lake Issyk-Kul that can be used in regular hydrological and hydrochemical observations.

However, for the lack of funds to pay for diesel fuel, no regular observations are performed in the lake water area.

32

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Figure 2.8: Hydrological post - Estuary of Bolshoy Naryn River

Source: Kyrgyzhydromet presentation at Consultation Workshop (Bishkek, December 16, 2008)

The commonly applied visual method of water level estimation, and calculations based on the resultant data on water flow in water courses is not only sensitive to errors but can be dangerous to personnel performing the measurements. The lack of continuous (24 hours/7 days per week) communications is a serious obstacle to ensuring timely reporting of measurement data, especially in case of the risk of flooding. At present, it is impossible to achieve the accuracy of hydrological observations (first of all, water flow measurements) recommended in the WMO Guide to Hydrological Practices (WMO,1994) and Technical Regulations Volume III Hydrology (WMO, 2006).

Providing users with reliable, sufficiently accurate and timely routine and operational information, forecasts and warnings about hazardous weather events, as well as to minimize economic damage caused by such events, requires a modern hydrological observational network and modern hydrological forecasting technologies.

SNOW SURVEYS Snow surveys were initiated in Kyrgyzstan in 1958 under the Department of Hydrometeorology. In 1970-80s, in addition to a strong first-grade snow-measuring and hydrographic crew consisting of three special-purpose units, equipped with motor vehicles and a helicopter ready to start out at any time, there was an avalanche monitoring network comprising 7 snow avalanche stations.

Four of these were subsequently closed with only a few of 30 highly qualified engineers still working in the snow avalanche service.

Information on aerial and surface snow surveying, lists, aerial surveying routs and locations of surface snowing surveying are given in Annex to the technical mission report by Kotov, V., and A. Zaitsev, 2008.

Collection of data required to estimate potential avalanching is performed by the Anti-Avalanche Office (AAO) of Kyrgyzhydromet and specialists from snow avalanche stations (SAS).

There are only three operative snow avalanche stations as of 2008: 1. Tioo-Ashuu SAS performs observations at the 120-138 km section of Bishkek-Osh highway; 2. Chon-Ashuu SAS performs observations at the 45-90 km section of Kyrakol-Sarydzhaz highway; 3. It-Agar SAS performs observations at the 198-265 km section of Bishkek-Osh highway.

SAS perform daily observations and submit the collected data to the AAO for preparation and subsequent processing. Avalanche observations currently cover no more than 10% of the avalanche-hazardous areas. Aerial snow surveys are performed occasionally. Snowmeasuring rods at the aerial network have not been repaired and reconstructed since 1989; aerial network sites in many basins are completely destroyed. A few meteorological stations at specified intervals measure depth of snow using previously installed rods with a meter scale. These measure the increment, melting, increase or reduction of snow cover since the time of previous measurements and during periods of precipitation. Together with depth measurements, snow density and temperature are measured in each snow layer. Such observations are also performed in avalanche generating catchments and other avalanchehazardous slopes in areas of SAS coverage. SAS specialists also control the formation of snow cornices and slabs, which, if they shift or slide, can trigger avalanching. In addition to snow cover stratigraphy, other measurements include wind parameters, precipitation amount, air temperature and humidity, atmospheric pressure, etc. The state of vehicular roads is also surveyed during difficult weather conditions such as snowdrifts, glaze frost, avalanching, and snow accumulation on rock slopes. All avalanches in the area of SAS coverage are described, recorded and plotted on the map.

33

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

An essential responsibility of SAS is to identify the timing of avalanche hazards, which occur as a result of snow accumulation or under weather conditions that can trigger avalanches. Another key function is to identify industrial and civil facilities designed or constructed in avalanche-hazardous areas.

Follow-up operations include analysis of avalanche observations, estimating stability of snow slabs on the slopes, defining the critical period of avalanche hazard, construction of avalanche formation models and forecasts based on expert systems of snow cover development and changes in meteorological variables.

Restoration of the snow survey network to ensure anti-avalanche protection and proper quality of forecasts of water content in rivers and inflow in reservoirs should be a priority of Kyrgyzhydromet activities. An important aspect of snow survey renewal (in addition to insignificant costs to procure measuring devices and equipment) is a considerable increase in operational costs to allow regular snowmeasuring routes and aerial snow surveys.

AGROMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONS AND OBSERVATION SITES In 1975 Kyrgyzhydromet operated 68 stations, observing agrometeorological data for croplands and pastures. By 1993 that number of those stations decreased to 33. Since 2005 and until now the agrometeorological network has included 31 observation sites (21 stations and 10 posts).

The decline in the network was the result of the lack of measuring instruments, both for standard agrometeorological measurements and observations of the phases of plant development. The whole of the agrometeorological network is currently equipped with only 15 frost-depth meters, 6 electric thermometers and 20 drying boxes. No instrument is available to measure temperature in the arable soil layer. Due to the lack of drying boxes and counter balances for weighing samples of soil and plant mass, observations of soil moisture under cotton crops in southern areas of the Republic were cancelled, and data on the productivity and gross yield of raw cotton terminated. No agrometeorological observations are performed on highland pastures. The lack of transport significantly affects the quality and quantity of observations, since observation sites are located at a distance of 5-10 km from stations (posts). As a result, the majority of observation sites remain unvisited during the growing season. Route surveys of fields to measure soil moisture during various plant development phases are decreasing in number. List of measuring instruments and equipment used in agrometeorological sites as of July 1, 2008 is presented in Annex 12 to the technical mission report by Kotov, V., and A. Zaitsev, 2008.

Since April 1998 cotton crop related observations have been made at only 2 stations (Jalal-Abad, Kara-Suu) and at 1 post (Massy). Frost depth is observed at 23 out of 31 sites. Temperature at the depth of 3 cm during the winter season is measured at 9 sites instead of 14. Phenological and zoometrical observations, critical for pasturing, are provided at 4 stations (Baytyk, Gulcha, Sary-Tash) compared with 14 stations supplying those data in 1988.

ACTINOMETRICAL OBSERVATIONS Actinometrical observations of radiation balance parameters are implemented at three stations: Bishkek, Suusamyr and Cholpon-Ata. Measurements are performed by standard instruments: actinometer AT-50, multipurpose pyranometer M-80, balance meter Đ&#x153;-10, galvanometer GSA-1. Stations in Baitik and Sary-Tash have integrators ĐĽ-607 that have exhausted their service life and become obsolete.

While these observations are important for evaluation of radiation parameters, investment in upgrading of actinometric instrumentation is considered to be a second order priority.

ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION MONITORING In the last 10 to 15 years, the system of environmental pollution monitoring in Kyrgyzhydromet has declined. Air quality monitoring was cancelled in Jalal-Abad; the integrated monitoring laboratory in Osh was closed; water sampling in Lake Issyk-Kul is performed only very occasionally. Atmospheric concentrations of dust, carbon monoxide, dissolved sulfate, major constituents of vehicle exhausts are no longer measured at all stations. The available information fails to give an accurate account of the urban air quality, which impedes studies of the adverse pollution impact on human health.

Monitoring of surface water quality is a priority area of Kyrgyzhydromet activities. However, for over 10 years no data on the surface water quality have been collected for the southern region of the Republic, as well as in Issyk-Kul, Naryn and Talas regions.

Regular observations of Lake Issyk-Kul were cancelled. Hydrochemical surveys of the lake have been performed twice in the last 10 years (the last time in 2001). No analyses are made for the content of pesticides, heavy hydrocarbons, and chemical oxygen demand.

Surface water monitoring is currently performed at 10 water bodies in Chuisk region (32 ingredients), and a hydrological post on NarynShamaldysai river (7 ingredients) with samples being transported for analysis to the hydrochemical laboratory in Bishkek.

The hydrochemical laboratory (Bishkek) is equipped with modern instruments and devices provided under a technical assistance project of the Government of Japan.

34

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Hydrochemical observations on water bodies of Kyrgyzstan (except the Chu River) were terminated due to the lack of funds to procure expendables for observations and hydrochemical laboratories at regional CHM. Efforts should be made to strengthen the system of surface water monitoring, which will require moderate investments in arranging hydrochemical observations at transboundary rivers, reservoirs and Lake Issyk-Kul with mobile and stationary monitoring devices; equipping the hydrochemical laboratory at Osh CHM; and sharing the results of surface water monitoring of transboundary rivers with hydrometeorological services in neighboring countries. A decision of the Kyrgyz Government and possibly intergovernmental agreements between the states of the Region on arrangements for operational costs financing will be a necessary condition for the implementation of these activities.

CONDITION OF OBSERVATIONAL INSTRUMENTS All instruments and equipment used in Kyrgyzhydromet networks have been in operation for a long time and are obsolete. The service life of instruments has long expired. Most measuring devices need to be replaced with modern instruments.

The situation is better at the hydrological network where almost one third of posts have been/are being reequipped under assistance programs. Unfortunately, the NMHS is unable to introduce advanced measuring instruments, and the acquired technologies are based on developments dating back to 1970s.

A more difficult situation is noted at other observational networks. Unless technical upgrading of the NMHS network is performed in the near future, its further operation will become useless.

REMOTE OBSERVATIONS AEROLOGICAL STATIONS Aerological (upper air) measurements of temperature, humidity and winds are critical to understanding changing weather conditions. Temperature-wind sounding data considerably affect the quality of produced storm warnings (especially on avalanche hazards), weather forecasts and aviation forecast, and also comprises a key component of regional meteorological models.

Up until 1992 Kyrgyzhydromet had three operational aerological stations: in Bishkek (launched in 1959 and the last operational site), Jalal-Abad (operational through 1968-1992), and Naryn (operational through 1972-1999). The aerological station in Bishkek has been removed from routine operation because of difficulties in maintaining the radar, lack of expendable radiosondes, and lack of professional staff to maintain the system. Scarce budget funds allocated to the NMHS to finance operational costs do not allow procurement of radiosondes for temperature-wind sounding operations. Radio sounding has been performed only occasionally during the recent decade with 100 radiosondes per year procured under the WMO VCP. In 2003, under the WMO VCP the Komet company (Russia) modernized the aerological computing complex (ACC-1) at Bishkek AS to allow operations with RF 95 radio sounder in addition to the traditional MRZ-3Đ? radio sounder. In December 2005, the same company upgraded the ACC-1 under the WMO VCP to install the Aerologistâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Automated Workstation.

The building of Bishkek AS is in unsatisfactory condition. Capital repair of the heating system is required, and the inside and outside refurbishment of the buildings. The hydrogen recovery facility (gas-generator plant) also requires rehabilitation. The building of Bishkek AS is connected to a threephase 380/220 V power line, and a backup cable line with the same nominal voltage.

Renewal of temperature-wind atmosphere sounding at least at the aerological station in Bishkek is a high priority. In the future consideration should be given to renewing temperature-wind sounding at another 1-2 previously closed aerological stations.

However, it should be realized that investments in the renewal of temperature-wind sounding in Kyrgyzstan will require considerable operating expenses to procure components for atmosphere sounding (radiosondes, sounding balloons, etc.).

METEOROLOGICAL RADARS Between 1980 and 1985, Kyrgyzhydromet operated one meteorological radar (MRL-2) in Osh. Since then, the lack of radar coverage has constrained the Kyrgyzhydromet ability to detect precipitationbearing convective storm clouds. Real-time observations of such storm clouds would ensure a sufficiently high level of accuracy and advance time of storm warnings. In addition, modern radars are capable of providing quantitative precipitation data that would allow meteorologists to significantly improve the quality of flood forecasts. Installation of meteorological radars in the near future is not considered in the modernization plan due to their high cost.

2.2.2. TECHNICAL SUPPORT OF METEOROLOGICAL EQUIPMENT The organizational structure of Kyrgyzhydromet includes the Department of Technical Facilities and Measuring Devices, which is responsible for repairing, verifying and calibrating measuring devices (MD).

Once in five years MD calibration specialists of Kyrgyzhydromet attend professional recertification courses at Voeykov Main Geophysical Observatory (Saint-Petersburg).

35

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

In total there are 2500 measuring devices, including 5 reference ones which need to verified and calibrated annually. Reference barometer, anemometer, psychrometer, thermometers (ТМ-1, ТМ-2, ТМ-3, ТМ-4, ТМ-10), UPAR (anemometer calibration unit), PO-3 (psychrometer calibration unit) are verified at Voeykov MGO (Roshydromet); however, all of these verification instruments are obsolete. Kyrgyzgosstandart (State Committee for Standardization) performs annual state verification of balances, weights, meters, chronometers, thermometers (ТМ-6) and general technical measuring devices. Anemometers, burettes GGI3000, barometers, thermometers and psychrometers are verified inhouse.

According to the Manual for Hydrometeorological Stations and Sites (vol. 3, part 1), zero point calibrations are annually performed for thermometers operating on the network, correction data being sent to the Department of Technical Facilities and Measuring Devices. Twice a month magnetic north-line is specified, and rain-post receivers checked for leakage. In general, however, the status of meteorological support is unsatisfactory. The internal data quality assurance service is very weak due to obsolete reference instruments and lack of qualified staff, which makes the quality of observed and recorded data questionable.

2.2.3. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN WEATHER FORECASTING ROUTINE FORECASTS Kyrgyzhydromet uses the data and products provided by hydrometeorological services of neighboring Central Asian countries, CIS and other countries to produce various meteorological products for the territory of Kyrgyzstan. In particular, 1-5-day weather forecasts are made using surface analysis and topographic altitude maps, and the ones based on calculations of numerical forecast models of atmospheric circulation from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, US National Weather Service’s National Meteorological Center and Russian Hydromet Center, as well as Uzhydromet and the data from NOAA meteorological satellites (FY2C/FY2D).

Modern forecasting technologies are non-existent at the NMHS. All routine operations are performed manually (data plotting, preparation and analysis of forecast charts, etc.). Besides receiving routine global fields and a few unverifiable station forecasts created by the major numerical modeling centers, there is little information with which to construct the national and regional forecast products. Forecasters cannot construct diagrams and profiles to specify the forecasts. There are no automated workstations that would permit data visualization or the processing and integration of satellite and other data to help the meteorologist prepare forecasts.

Avalanche hazard forecasting involves analysis of avalanche observations, estimating stability of snow slabs on the slopes, defining the critical period of avalanche hazard, construction of avalanche formation models and forecasts based on expert systems of snow cover development and changes in meteorological variables. Hydrological forecasts are made using physical and statistical methods. Automated Information System of Hydrological Forecasts (AISHF) developed by CARHMI (Central Asian Research Hydrometeorological Institute) of Uzhydromet is used for the rivers of Syr Darya basin. It is planned to adapt the model for the Naryn River basin.

Currently there is no agrometeorological database in the Kyrgyzhydromet. Agrometeorological forecasts are produced using statistical methods. The available input data are collected from observation sites and during routine surveys of fields. The method is based on a combination of two products: (i) forecast of productivity trend, which is estimated using a trend equation, and (ii) assessment of productivity deviation as compared to the trend line, which depends on the agrometeorological conditions during specific phenological stages.

Implementation of modern data processing, forecasting and presentation technologies is a necessary condition for improving the quality and range of Kyrgyzhydromet information products. It is also important is to continue implementation (including staff training) and, if appropriate, adjustment of special-purpose software products provided under various assistance programs with the help of international expertise.

International expertise should also be involved in the adjustment and introduction of regional numerical weather forecasting models.

36

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Table 2.3 The average accuracy of various forecasts in 2007 Forecast Types

Number of sites (facilities, areas) covered by forecasting

Forecast accuracy (%)

1 7 7

86 93 90

3

85

5

88

3 3 3 1 35 26

100

3 5 6

94 87 90

5 2 2

85 83 95

А. Meteorological forecasts 1. Short-term forecasts day 1, for the site day 1, for the area 2-3 day, for the area B. Hydrological forecasts for terrestrial water bodies 1. Short-term а) average 10-day inflow in Toktogul, Orto Tokoy and Kirov water reservoirs b) average 5-day water flow in irrigated farming areas 2. Long-term a) water inflow in Toktogul, Orto Tokoy and Kirov water reservoirs - a quarter - vegetation period - vegetation period by months - low water period b) average vegetation-period water flow by rivers в) average monthly water flow by rivers C. Agrometeorological forecasts Phenological forecasts: - time of first mulberry leaves unfurling - time of fruit crop blooming within the Republic blooming time of firstcrop perennial sowngrass within the Republic - time of winter wheat yellowing within the Republic - time of budding stage for cotton - time of first cotton boll opening within the Republic Source: Kyrgyzhydromet data

80 89 88

EVALUATION OF ROUTINE FORECASTS General purpose one-, two- and three-day weather forecasts are produced on a daily basis for the whole country and for large cities. Forecast evaluation is performed according to Manual “Terminology and accuracy of one-to-three-day weather forecasts and warnings about EHHs and HHs” (Kyrgyzhydromet, 2004).

The table 2.3 below shows average accuracy of various forecasts in 2007.

ACCESS TO NUMERICAL MODEL DATA To ensure the successful work of weather forecasters and achieve satisfactory forecast reliability, efforts should be made to obtain numerical data from advanced models and results of objective analyses from several forecasting centers. This could be achieved by arranging receipt of operational information from the closest World Meteorological Center (WMC), which is in Moscow, via high capacity satellite communication lines, and applying modern software for data decoding, storage and visualization.

Regional weather forecasting numerical models and runoff calculation models should also be requested, adapted for Kyrgyzstan, and implemented.

2.2.4. TELECOMMUNICATIONS, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES Communication facilities and IT infrastructure are deteriorated and obsolete, and fail to ensure receipt and transmission of large data amounts required to produce modern information products. Information support technology is obsolete. The means of forecasting and production of information products fail to meet modern requirements to hydrometeorological services provided to public authorities, economy and communities.

37

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

COLLECTION AND TRANSMISSION OF DATA AND INFORMATION PRODUCTS Hydrometeorological data from lowland stations are collected through wire channels provided by the Department of Communications (general-purpose telephone and telegraph lines and printer exchange service), and from highland stations – through individual communication facilities (radio communication). Stations are mostly using Polosa-2 and Angara radio stations (produced in 1971 and 1979) that are no longer manufactured. As a result of durable operation in difficult climate conditions, technological elements of radio stations have exhausted their service life, became obsolete and require replacement for lack of spare parts. It should be noted that over 30 stations and posts (mainly on the hydrological network) were equipped with modern radio stations Barrett-940, Icom-718, Alinco-135 provided under assistance programs, which obviously expected to have a positive impact on the quantity and timeliness of data collection. However, there is a need for lowechelon6 communication subsystem developed on the basis of surveying all Kyrgyzhydromet observational network sites and modern communication and data transmission technologies that meet the forecasting needs. Data on the availability of communication and power supply facilities at Kyrgyzhydromet are given in Annex 13 to the technical mission report (Kotov, V. and A. Zaitsev, 2008).

Figure 2.9. Current communication and data transmission equipment of the observational network

Source: Pictures from technical missions and Kyrgyzhydromet presentation at Consultation Workshop (Bishkek, December 16, 2008)

The quantity of data transmissions has declined considerably since the mid 1980s (Table 2.4) representing an overall decline in the observing networks and capacity of the Kyrgyzhydromet to provide products and services to its users. Power supply facilities that include diesel generators, gas-powered units and alkaline accumulators, are obsolete and unable to ensure continuous power supply of the technological equipment, and even the minimum domestic power supply at highland stations.

Table 2.4 A comparison of monthly transmissions currently produced compared with the mid-1980s Synoptic Reports Agrometeorological data telegrams Hydrological telegrams Storm Warnings

Current Monthly Transmissions 7 920 630

Mid-1980s Monthly Transmissions 11 625 2 074

720 170-180

2 152 390-400

Note: In mid-1980s storm warnings were issued by 79-80 stations, currently – by 32 stations.

Data, transmitted mainly through wire channels, go to the Message Switching Center (MSC) in Bishkek (Fig. 2.10). Data transmitted through radio communication lines are received by two cluster radio stations (CRS) in Bishkek and Osh, and then manually transmitted to the MSC. The main volume of radio information is received by the CRS in Bishkek.

For the purposes of meteorological data transmission and receipt of information from the Headquarters (forecasts, office information) telegraph channels were established between: Bishkek – Balykchi, Bishkek – Jalal-Abad, Bishkek – Naryn, Bishkek – Tokmak, Bishkek – Kara-Balta, Bishkek – Talas; Bishkek – Kyzyl-Suu. Telegraph devices Т-63 and F-2000 are used as terminal units, which are actually outdated and do not meet the requirements.

Data received from stations are compiled into newsletters at the Message Switching Center. The MSC uses a PCbased system and Unimas software system, which is linked via the Ethernet local network to specialists’ workstations (at the meteorological, hydrological and agrometeorological forecast offices and anti-avalanche office). Further processing is mostly performed manually. The outside path of the MSC is equipped with relevant communication devices: multiplexers, modems and various channel adapters providing data exchange within the computerbased message system (CBMS), and exchange of formalized messages with subscribed network users.

6

Low-echelon communication system provides bilateral data/information transmission between Message Switching Center and observation network sites, which are often located in remote areas.

38

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Figure 2.10. Operational Data Collection from Kyrgyzhydromet Observational Network

Linkage to the WMO GTS is provided through a direct dial-up connection between the Bishkek and Tashkent MSC. This line is used to transmit hydrometeorological data from Kyrgyzhydromet observational network to WMO GTS and Hydrometeorological Services in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (in the amount specified by interstate agreements). In accordance with agreements on scientific cooperation, Kyrgyzhydromet also daily uses this line to send 3-day weather forecasts to Hydrometeorological Services in Kazakhstan and Russia. The incoming information primarily consists of synoptic material with the total volume amounting to 25 Mb/day, and satellite images of the total volume 3 Mb/day.

It is impossible to analyze the dynamics of quantitative and time parameters of data collection from basic observational networks (meteorological, hydrological, agrometeorological and other stations/posts), since the available materials do not reflect the actual situation with respect to the stations and posts, which have non-existent/inoperative communication facilities. No analysis is performed of the time intervals between each observation series and data receipt by the Headquarters.

The Headquarters of Kyrgyzhydromet uses Internet resources to obtain additional hydrometeorological data (with the total volume of 500 Kb/day) that cannot be otherwise received due to the limited capacity of the Bishkek â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Tashkent channel. These mainly include weather maps produced on the basis of global model calculations from the leading meteorological centers. Email is used as an additional resource to receive/send forecasts and storm warnings to Hydrometeorological Services in neighboring countries, and provide information products to users. In terms of quantity, the outgoing information may be estimated as follows: daily forecasts and 12-hour forecast updates are disseminated to 60 addresses, monthly forecasts go to 35 addresses, hydrological reviews go to 15 addresses, agrometeorological newsletters and seasonal reviews go to 5 addresses, and special-purpose briefing notes go to 3 addresses. The above information is also reported by phone and submitted in hard copies. The internet traffic limit, established by the provider, is 2 GB/month.

In view of the above, one can conclude that the data collection and transmission system of Kyrgyzhydromet is inefficient, it fails to ensure timely collection of observational results and their reporting to forecasting offices, receipt of the required synoptic material to allow production of highquality forecasts and warnings, and does not meet modern requirements. Regional hydrometeorological centers are almost excluded from the operational work with the observational network.

Modern software/hardware is needed within Kyrgyzhydromet to ensure efficient and timely collection of data from the observational network, and receipt and processing of information products of the leading world meteorological centers. This will improve the quality of forecasting products, storm alerts and EHH/HE warnings provided to users, first of all, the MoES and Water Management Department (Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Manufacturing Industry).

DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING Kyrgyzhydromet hydrometeorological databank contains about 11 thousand stock units, mostly in hard copies. Archival facilities fail to meet the requirements in terms of the appropriate air temperature and humidity. Despite the efforts of the personnel (shielded windows, buckets of water placed all over the archive) air temperature and humidity vary depending on weather conditions leading to destruction of hard copies and irrevocable loss of data (the paper dries and crumbles).

There is a bank of 1976-1985 data in CLICOM7 format stored in 280 1.44 Mb floppy discs (403.3 Mb in total).

The Service makes certain efforts to save the data. For example, mean monthly air temperature and precipitation data from all Kyrgyz meteorological stations are converted in XL tables. However, this is obviously insufficient. Primary meteorological data from the whole network have not been processed since 1992.

Saving of historic data should be an integral part of NMHS modernization. To this end, a program should be developed to convert the data in digital format, including blueprinting and digitizing of paper records, and conversion of handwritten materials to electronic format. This enormous, highly labor and effort consuming work must be supplemented with procurement of equipment for hard copy archiving and data digitalizing.

7 CLICOM â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CLImate COMputing Project initiated in 1985 to co-ordinate the implementation, maintenance and upgrading of automated Climate Database Management Systems (CDMSs) in WMO Member countries.

39

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

To prevent further accumulation of unprocessed hydrometeorological materials, arrangements should be made to prepare hydrological and meteorological data for operational storage at regional CHM.

2.3. PRODUCTS AND SERVICE DELIVERY, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, NATIONAL COORDINATION 2.3.1. WEATHER INFORMATION SERVICES The HMC (Bishkek) issues a daily hydrometeorological newsletter with daily forecasts for the overall Kyrgyzstan territory and major regions. No weather forecasts are produced for highland areas in Talas and Naryn Regions due to the lack of meteorological stations. In addition to daily forecasts, 5-day and monthly forecasts are also produced. The Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasts has the list of forecast addressees, and a register of storm warnings. The lists of warnings are made with due regard for specific features of EHH and HH. The HMC is staffed with experienced specialists. The list of products produced by the Main Department of Hydrometeorology of the Ministry of Emergencies of the Kyrgyz Republic is given in Annex 2.

NMHS performs no systematic work with users concerning the utilization of forecasts and current weather information. The users receive a standard set of information products with no mechanism in place to reveal the needs of various users and the NMHS capacity to meet these needs.

2.3.2. CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES Climate information in Kyrgyzstan is required for planning and construction of buildings and facilities, assessment of climate variations and change. Climate data bank is available at the NMHS mostly in hard copies (only data on mean monthly temperature and precipitation amount are available in electronic format for some stations), which restricts preparation of climate information at user request, and also may lead to irrevocable loss of the national data bank due to the lack of specially equipped data storage facilities. During the recent decades, the NMHS has performed almost no work on climate variability; information notes on climate conditions in the Republic are only issued at the request of the State Agency on Environmental Protection and Forestry â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the beneficiary of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Assessment of modern climate of Kyrgyzstan in the context of widescale international climate change research and adjustment of the economy to changing climate conditions should become an important area of activity in Kyrgyzhydromet â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the only public agency that owns a bank of multidecade climatic information. In view of this, it is required not only to modernize the data bank through implementing modern technologies of data storage and retrieval, but also to create a team of specialists capable of preparing scientific publications with assessment of past and current climatic conditions, and projections of possible future climate changes.

2.3.3. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES The Agrometeorological Forecast Office prepares 10-day agrometeorological newsletters containing summarized information for the past 10 days of the month on air temperature and humidity, soil temperature and humidity, and providing forecasts of expected blooming periods and other development stages of agricultural crops, seasonal reviews. Forecasts on crop yields of cotton and cereals are issued.

The newsletter in hard copies and by email is disseminated to various entities of the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Manufacturing Industry, and regional CHM; however, no feedback with users is arranged, and no comments are collected from local agricultural users as to what kind of information is required for their economic activities, and when do they need such information.

2.3.4. HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES Hydrological information services in Kyrgyzstan are mainly related to addressing a wide range of problems facing the water management sector, as well as providing the economy and local communities with forecasts of dangerous developments in hydrological conditions of inner water bodies. In view of importance of water resources, of special attention are the issues related to runoff observations, and therefore the accuracy of water flow measurements. In addition, rain and snow floods on small rivers sometimes aggravated with mudrock flows deserve special attention. However, complete lack of automated water flow (runoff) measurement facilities and telecommunication problems largely hamper the development of modern forecasting methods, achievement of practically acceptable lead time and accuracy of forecasts, as well as creation of warning systems for mountain river basins.

40

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Reduction of the highland observation network is a significant loss both for Kyrgyzstan, and the Central Asian region in general.

The lack of highland meteorological data does not allow an accurate evaluation of snow content in the mountains, which undermines accuracy of hydrological forecasts in the region.

It should be noted that due to the climate change the need for highland meteorological and hydrological data has recently increased, as have the requirements to the quality of provided information products. However, reconstruction of the highland network will incur considerable costs. The quality of forecasts could be improved through the implementation of comprehensive activities, including the installation in the highland area of up to 10 automatic meteorological stations and at least 3 automatic snow measuring facilities, ensuring regular snow survey routes and aerial snow surveys, etc.

The Hydrological Forecast Office analyzes the data received from hydrological stations and posts. Short- and long-term forecasts of water flow and water level are produced for Syr Darya basin based on the calculation model (the Uzhydromet AIS HF model) that is planned to be used for the Naryn River. Short-term forecasts are made for 5 days, long-term ones â&#x20AC;&#x201C; for a month and a quarter. 5-day forecasts are daily updated during the flood period. Hydrological forecasts are disseminated to the Kyrgyz Republic Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Processing Industry design agencies of the Ministry, and to regional CHM. The Kyrgyzhydromet has close contracts with entities of the Ministry, in particular Department of Water Resources, Department of Fieldcrop Cultivation, and Processing Industry Department, and also with the energy sector. However, coordination with other users (agricultural sector, design agencies) is almost non-existent.

Users are not fully satisfied with the accuracy of river water content forecasts. Therefore, renewal of highland observations and, above all, snow surveys will enable to considerably improve the quality of hydrological and avalanche forecasts.

2.3.5. ANTI-AVALANCHE PROTECTION The efficacy of all protective activities largely depends of careful observation of avalanche-hazardous sections and calculation of avalanching forecasts. The Anti-Avalanche Office of Kyrgyzhydromet performs observations and forecasting of avalanchehazardous areas, which include meteorological calculations and comprehensive observations of avalanche-hazardous slopes, meteorological and synoptic conditions accompanying avalanching activity, as well as snow mass movements in the avalanchehazardous areas.

Figure 2.11. Snow Avalanche-hazardous areas

Source: MoESâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Presentation at Consultation Workshop (December 16, 2008, Bishkek)

Kyrgyzhydromet usually issues warnings about the majority of avalanching events at the most significant sections. However, the destructive avalanche activity requires active abatement measures.

Unfortunately, the scope of ground-based and aerial snow surveys has been significantly reduced due to insufficient funding of this kind of observations. Development of snow survey routes and renewal of continuous ground-based and aerial snow surveys will enable to largely improve the efficacy of anti-avalanche protection of the economic activities in the Republic.

2.3.6. CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT The State Agency on Environmental Protection and Water Forestry performs studies on adjustment to climate change as part of the preparation of National Climate Change Reports for the UNCCC Secretariat.

Kyrgyzhydromet performs no scientific assessments of the scope and timeframes of climate change but just occasionally provides briefing notes containing current climatic data on air temperature and precipitation amount in the country.

41

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

2.3.7. INFORMATION SERVICES PROVIDED AT USER REQUEST Information services to the users of hydrometeorological data and forecasts are provided by the HMC (Bishkek) on a contractual basis. Regional CHM are almost outside of these activities. The number and volume of contracts are projected based on the previous year and approved at the Ministry of Finance who also plans and supervises the use of funds obtained under the contracts.

The Government of Kyrgyzstan approved the rates for hydrometeorological information services (Resolution No359 dated June 28, 1999), which are outdated and do not correspond to the current prices of goods and services. There is no procedure to calculate the cost of various works, and calculations do not reflect the actual expenses incurred by Kyrgyzhydromet to produce information products. Total amount of proceeds from contracts is small, comprising about 1.2-4% of the annual Kyrgyzhydromet funding.

It is worth noting that 20% of proceeds from contracts are transferred to the state budget, and the remaining part of proceeds are not channeled to encourage contracting activities; they are used to finance operational purposes items when budget resources are not sufficient. Data on the volume of contractual works are given in Table 2.5.

The current situation not only discourages Kyrgyzhydromet to expand the system of user services and introduce technologies aimed at improving the quality and increasing the list of information products, but to some extent impedes further development of Kyrgyzhydromet.

Table 2.5 Proceeds from fee-based contracted Specialized Hydrometeorological Services (SHMS) (Current prices, KGS thous.)

Actual proceeds from SHMS

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

210.1

180.4

259.8

194.1

211.1

535

249.1

319.3

including: Add sectors / users Agriculture

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Water management

46.1

46.1

46.1

46.1

46.1

46.1

46.1

46.1

Transport

25.9

25.9

25.9

25.9

25.9

25.9

25.9

25.9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Aviation Construction

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Energy

31.2

31.2

31.2

31.2

31.2

31.2

31.2

31.2

Media

16.9

16.9

16.9

16.9

0

33.8

16.9

16.9

Non-recurrent briefing notes

89.9

60.3

139.7

74

108.1

398

129

199.3

Source: Kyrgyzhydromet data

International experience of NMHS activities under current conditions with insufficient public funding of Hydrometeorological Services shows that provision of special-purpose information services may generate revenues amounting to 40-60% of the total NMHS budget. Kyrgyzhydromet makes almost no use of this source of additional revenues. To ensure sustainability of any investments in the NMHS system, NMHS should be encouraged to study the market of potential users (including the private sector), establish contractual relations, and develop standard information products responsive to user needs. It is required to develop methodological framework for calculating the cost of services provided by Kyrgyzhydromet, and introduce annually updated rates for hydrometeorological services taking account of the expanding range of information products.

2.4. SUMMARY The Kyrgyzhydromet operates with largely obsolete equipment and lacks access to modern forecasting methods, which limits its capacity to provide the products and services needed by the public and the economy. All of the Kyrgyzhydromet facilities are in a poor state of repair; there is insufficient qualified staff even to adequately maintain the current network, and inadequate training opportunities. There is clear degradation tend since 1980s when Kyrgyzhydomet was at peak of its development.

42

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

CHAPTER 3. ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION 3.1. APPROACHES TO NEEDS ASSESSMENT When preparing their modernization programs, NMHSs have traditionally focused on the technological aspects of hydrometeorological service development. Such approach aims at improving forecast accuracy and timeliness. However, inadequate interaction with users usually prevents NMHSs from taking into account their actual and especially potential information needs. A complete absence or under development of contacts with users at the modernization package development stage results in a gap between the opportunities and plans of hydrometeorological service provision and understanding of what, how and where NMHS information can be used most effectively to support management and operational decisions in specific sectors of the economy.

This lack of attention to end users’ current and potential understanding of their benefits from better hydrometeorological services during NMHS modernization may further increase information misalignment8 between a hydrometeorological service and its users. To avoid this, it is essential for NMHSs to build their interaction with users on the basis of modern principles, taking into account users’ interest in NMHS development and demonstrating to them their own and national benefits, including the economic ones.

There are several key factors, which determine the priority, scale and sequence of activities to modernize the National Hydrometeorological Service and improve its institutional structure. These include assessment and recognition of the current status and trends in the needs for hydrometeorological information on the part of governmental institutions, users in major producing and nonproducing sectors of the economy, and the population.

The objectives and expected results of user needs assessment are to: (i) identify the causes and factors of poor interaction between NMHS and its users; (ii) recommend to NMHS the most efficient way of cooperation with users; and (iii) propose to users how to integrate/apply hydrometeorological information and formulate their needs for it.

User needs for hydrometeorological information in Kyrgyzstan were assessed in two stages.

First, NMHS experts identified the NMHS development priorities proceeding from the analysis of its current conditions, user needs (as perceived by the NMHS), and knowledge of opportunities provided by modern hydrometeorology. This survey is based on the questionnaire developed during preparation of the National Hydrometeorological Modernization in Russia (2003-2004)9 and further tailored to estimate the economic benefits from the improved quality of hydrometeorological services following the modernization of national meteorological services in ECA region (2005-2007)10.

Second, the key users’ needs in hydrometeorological services were assessed in order to prepare recommendations on building Kyrgyzhydromet’s capacity to provide synoptic/meteorological/hydrological services and information, as well as hydrometeorological hazard and disaster warnings to the national Government, economy and population. The assessment targeted the most significant (in terms of GDP share) industries/sectors that are vulnerable to EHHs and HHs. The user needs assessment was based on a special checklist (World Bank, 2008b) developed using WMO materials, World Bank earlier studies, and the Questionnaire on Assessment of User Needs in Hydrometeorological Information previously used for a survey conducted with the assistance of the regional project Swiss Support to NMHS in the Aral Sea Basin (Tajikhydromet, 2008).

The checklist used to assess the needs of specific weather-dependent sectors included the following substantive survey blocks: • HH influence, by impact type/degree and damage significance (one-time and total); • Relevance of forecast products, and barriers to their uses; • Hydrometeorological information (HMI) sources, types, and delivery channels and formats; • Quality assessment of delivered forecast products; • Requirements to NMHS products formulated with due regard for NMHS modernization; • Assessment of and methodologies for estimating economic damage from EHHs and HHs; and • Recommendations and proposals to Kyrgyzhydromet to improve and customize hydrometeorological services.

The results of the sector expert survey may be divided into two major groups: (1) General information on the sector’s dependence on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards, on the amount and quality of HMI used by the sector, and on the current efficacy of HMI uses; and (2) Information on the potential demand for various information types and presentation formats, accuracy and timeliness of each hydrometeorological element/event forecast required for sector operations, HMI requirements necessary for optimal performance, as well as recommendations and proposals on hydrometeorological service improvement and customization.

8

Information misalignment stems from the fact that NMHS experts do not know all of the details of specific sector operations and, therefore, cannot adjust their products to users’ specific needs and requirements. At the same time, users do not know all of the opportunities of modern hydrometeorology and, therefore, cannot formulate their potential needs accurately and correctly.

9 Tsirkunov, V., M. Smetanina, A. Korshunov, and S. Ulatov. 2004.

10 World Bank. 2008c.

43

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

The survey was conducted with support from Kyrgyzhydromet staff. Table 3.1 gives a list of sectors/ministries whose representatives participated in the survey.

Table 3.1 List of Sectors/Ministries Covered by the Survey Sector /Ministry KR Ministry for Emergency Situations Agriculture (KR Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Manufacturing Industry) Water resources, management, irrigation (Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Manufacturing Industry) Road sector (KR Ministry of Transport and Communications) KR Ministry of Industry and Energy (OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii) Heating (OJSC Bishkekteploset)

Structural unit Department of Emergency Monitoring and Forecast, and Tailings Management Kyrgyz Sugar Beet Pilot Breeding Station OJSC MIS, Ysykatinsky Rayon Department of Water Resources Bishkek-Osh Highway National Directorate (BOHND) Water Engineering Service OJSC Bishkekteploset Dispatch Unit

The survey participants took part in a consultation workshop on improving the efficiency of weather and climate service delivery in the Kyrgyz Republic (Bishkek, December 16, 2008) where they attended a special session to discuss and update HMI needs assessment of weather-dependent sectors of the economy. Workshop agenda, list of participants and major preliminary findings and recommendations are presented in Annexes 4-6.

A joint analysis of the resulting assessments made it possible to: (i) identify potential user needs and requirements for HMI and information products; and (ii) prepare Recommendations and proposals for the NMHS Modernization Program with due regard to the interests of both parties (NMHS staff and sector specialists) in NMHS development, which in turn would allow reducing information misalignment11.

3.2. ASSESSMENT OF KEY SECTOR’S NEEDS FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION 3.2.1. EMERGENCIES The Kyrgyz Republic Ministry for Emergency Situations was represented in the survey by an expert from the Department of Emergency Monitoring and Forecast, and Tailings Management, which is responsible for two major activity areas: • Management of and safety arrangements for tailings and rock dumps containing radioactive and toxic wastes from liquidated enterprises (36 tailings and 25 rock dumps); and implementation of accident recovery works; and • Monitoring of natural hazards (landslides, mudflows and floods, water logging, etc.) and forecasts of their intensification.

As reported by the expert (Mokrousov, 2008), performance of MoES’s operating units is directly dependent on the accuracy and timeliness of hydrometeorological forecasts and HH warnings as it is related to the prevention and liquidation of consequences of the entire range of hydrometeorological disasters. The expert ranked hydrometeorological events in the following order proceeding from the significance of their impact (significant one-time damage): floods and mudflows; heavy rain; heavy snow; strong wind (hurricane, squall); very hot weather; violent hailstorm.

As a subordinate agency of MoES responsible for regular observation of hydrometeorological conditions and surface water/ soil/ambient air pollution, including the radiation situation, Kyrgyzhydromet is the principal source of meteorological, hydrological, climatic and agrometeorological information used by the MoES. Kyrgyzhydromet provides this sector with current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), long-term forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (generalized for 1month and 1year periods), and EHH and HH warnings.

Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are used for day-to-day management purposes and emergency prediction. At present, HMI used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, by courier, fax, telegraph and mail. In future, telephone messages from the forecaster on duty would be complemented by information delivered via the internet/email, and by satellite data.

According to the expert, the information presentation format was generally satisfactory for the currently available communication channels. It would be desirable to receive such information as a text (descriptive information) and as statistical data and maps.

The expert assessed the forecast quality, in terms of accuracy and timeliness, as well as reliability and timeliness of HH forecasts and warnings and information on the area to be affected by HH and the event duration, as ‘satisfactory’. This satisfactory assess11

Close cooperation between NMHS and various sectors is the most efficient way to reduce information misalignment and, therefore, improve the economic efficiency of HMI product uses. Such cooperation is usually based on specialist hydrometeorological services. Specialist hydrometeorological services required to the most significant sectors of the economy may be developed and provided using mechanisms other than contracts (e.g., under budget-financed Targeted Programs).

44

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

ment should be qualified by noting that sectoral experts are well aware of the NMHSs constraints and therefore assess its performance based on their understanding what is achievable in current circumstances. Another factor is lack of knowledge of modern hydrometeorological products by sectoral experts. In interpreting expert assessment the team therefore concentrated on areas recommended for improvement. Delivered information is used on a daily basis throughout the year. The expert considered that it would be useful for HH warnings to include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to mitigate the impact. This would allow financial losses from specific types of HH to be estimated.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of entities under the Department of Emergency Monitoring and Forecast, and Tailings Management: precipitation (rain, snow); precipitation duration and intensity; wind speed, including wind gusts; and hydrometeorological hazards (floods and mudflows, etc.). The expert also noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality, and with an appropriate lead time, were an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning.

Due to the lack of methodologies and experts, the Department of Emergency Monitoring and Forecast, and Tailings Management does not assess damage from weather conditions or HH, including financial losses.

It was recommended that Kyrgyzhydromet: (i) deliver generalized information and forecast hazardous processes and events specifying hazard criteria (e.g., along the cause-effect chains: precipitation, snow accumulation → landslides; precipitation, temperature → mudflows); (ii) expand the network of observation sites (primarily stream, avalanche and snow gauging stations); and (iii) conduct airbased remote sensing observations of high-altitude lakes with a high risk of outflows.

3.2.2. AGRICULTURE Agriculture is the largest sector of the economy accounting for 35% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Over 60% of the population lives in rural areas, with 45% of the active population engaged in agriculture. In 2000, contributions to the gross agricultural product were as follows: state owned farms 2.3%, collective farms 9.6%, private farms 41.6%, and subsistence plots 46.5%.

The country’s farmland covers 10.7 million ha, including 12% of arable land and 86% (9.2 million ha) of natural grasslands.

According to an overview prepared by the National Statistics Committee, total output had the following structure in 2006: crop production 58.2%, animal husbandry 40.4%, services 1.3%, and hunting and forestry 0.1%.

The country’s crop production largely consists of grain, vegetables and potato, and cultivation of technical crops such as cotton, tobacco, and sugar beet. The bulk of the country’s area is occupied by mountains. Diverse nature and climate conditions allow cultivation of both heat loving and cold resistant agricultural crops.

Figure 3.1: Crop production and animal husbandry areas

Source: MoES’s Presentation at Con- Source: MoES’s Presentation at Consultation Workshop (December 16, sultation Workshop (December 16, 2008, Bishkek) 2008, Bishkek)

The availability of vast natural grasslands predetermined the development of animal husbandry (especially sheep breeding), production of beef and dairy cattle, horse breeding, and yak breeding. Animal husbandry is among the key agricultural activities accounting for up to 60% of total output in animal husbandry.

The sector was generally assessed by the expert (Barko , 2008) as strongly dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards. Agricultural production activities are affected by almost all types of hydrometeorological events. The experts rated them as follows according to the degree of impact: drought, severe frost, violent hailstorm, very hot weather, spring frosts, fall frosts, heavy snow, heavy rain, dry (hot) winds, and strong wind.

Thus, spring frosts of April 17-19, 2008 (between -3 and -6oC) damaged 118,000 ha (or 35% of the total area) of agricultural crops in the Chu Oblast killing all fruit buds of stone fruit trees and damaging berry fields, wheat, barley and perennial grass plantations over a large area. In the Talas Oblast, the frosts damaged 27% of the total crop of spiked grains and 35% of the area occupied by fruit and berry plantations.

45

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

This situation was aggravated by reduced precipitation, which had an especially negative impact on spiked cereal and oil crop yields. In the drylands, which total 400,000 ha (out of 1,200,000 ha), the drought of 2008 killed agricultural and fodder crops over an area of more than 8,000 ha and resulted in a severe yield contraction to 200-400 kg/ha in the remaining territory.

Therefore, agricultural commodity producers reduced the dryland crop production area. Of course, if peasants had reliable information on precipitation in September-October and in March-May of the following year, it would be possible to avoid unnecessary expenditure on soil treatment, seeds and sowing.

The availability of information is also essential for winter crops. Lack of moisture resulted in thin crops sown in September 1996, for example, while abundant precipitation the following year provided a good yield of summer crops. In 2008, September sowing followed by precipitation resulted in good development of winter crops but absence of snow and frosts in November-December caused gradual foliage dieback. Timely delivery of reliable meteorological information to agricultural producers would make it possible to adjust sowing time not only for winter but also for summer crops (especially thermophytic vegetables).

Information on food reserves in highland grasslands, as well as timely and accurate forecasts of EHH and HH such as hail, showers, floods and mudflows which cause cattle deaths is exceptionally important for highland animal husbandry.

In addition to hydrometeorological information provided by Kyrgyzhydromet, the sector also relies on information obtained from media and websites. Kyrgyzhydromet provides agricultural users with current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), long-range forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month periods), and EHH/HH warnings.

HMI and forecasts are used for optimal performance, long-term planning, and adjustment of the timing of seasonal agroengineering activities such as sowing, chemical treatment during the vegetation period, watering, cultivation, harvesting and storage.

At present, HMI used by the sector is delivered via fax, worldwide web, radio, KTR and NTB TV channels, and newspapers (Vecherniy Bishkek); it may be also obtained from user traditional experiences. In future, it would be desirable to use the entire range of potential communication channels, including the forecaster on duty, courier delivery, etc.

In general, the sectoral experts found it difficult to assess the information presentation format. It would be desirable to receive more timely and reliable information, preferably as a text (descriptive information) and statistical data.

Agricultural experts assessed the forecast quality as ‘fairly low (i.e., it should be improved)’ in terms of accuracy, and as ‘generally meets expectations’ in terms of timeliness. Reliability and timeliness of HH forecasts and warnings was assessed as ‘satisfactory’. Information on the area to be affected by HH and the event duration needs to be improved.

The experts found it expedient for HH warnings to include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to mitigate the impact. This would allow optimization of activities designed to increase the yield and improve the quality of agricultural crops.

Forecasts are especially important for agriculture in spring, fall and summer. Relevant weather forecasts give the opportunity to adjust planned activities and agricultural works, make decisions on the basis of predicted HH and, therefore, reduce losses and get good and high quality yields of agricultural crops. Accurate forecasts would allow quicker and timelier actions to prevent HH consequences and preserve crops throughout the growing season.

In the experts’ opinion, increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information delivery, forecasts and warnings would allow timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, reliable weather forecasts with a lead time of 1 day would give an opportunity to put on hold chemical plant protective activities if it predicts strong winds and heavy rain; those with a 2-day lead time would make it possible to stop crop watering if it predicts heavy rain; and reliable forecasts with a 3-day lead time, which predict heavy rain and fall frosts would be sufficient to accelerate harvesting. Spring frost forecasts with a lead time of 1 week would make it possible to adjust the sowing period while the delivery of reliable climate information with a lead time of 1 month would allow timely preparation for optimal and high quality implementation of necessary agroengineering activities.

Hydrological forecasts with a lead time of 10 days or 1 month would provide for timely planning of necessary agroengineering and agrochemical works. Hydrological forecasts for the growing season would allow adjustment of cropspecific plans.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the agricultural sector: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); air humidity; precipitation (rain, hail, snow); and precipitation duration and intensity.

The current efficacy of HMI uses in agriculture was assessed by the experts as ‘satisfactory’. It was also noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time was an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning. Optimal operation of the sector requires the receipt of customized information on a daily basis.

Preparing socio-economic development forecasts for the entire country, including agriculture, requires long-range forecasts of climate change. Availability of reliable climatic data would make it possible to plan changes in cropland structure and range of cultivated crops, and to adjust sowing time, crop watering time and level, and harvesting time.

3.2.3. WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION The water use and consumption system, as well as on-farm and intergovernmental water relations are regulated by the Kyrgyz Republic Law on Water adopted on January 14, 1994 and further amended in 1995. The Law introduces the pricing principle for

46

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

the right to use natural resources and water supply services, as well as pollutant discharges into water bodies and water engineering facilities within the established limits.

The State Water Fund (SWF) is among the cornerstones of the KR economy and social policy (see Box 3.1.).

Box 3.1. Description of the State Water Fund (SWF) SWF includes: glaciers, rivers, lakes, artesian basins and water resources concentrated therein; all water conservation forests; water storage and channel protection dams; water reservoirs; water engineering structures and facilities; and a system of water balance snow/water measuring stations and posts, communication and early warning equipment.

Reserves and annually renewed resources of surface river runoff and underground artesian basins are the most valuable water resources. The current glacial area occupies 4% of the KR territory and varies within 750,000-800,000 ha or 7,500-8,000 km2 , including 3,500 km2 in the Sary Jaza and Kakshaala basins; 2,400 km2 in the Naryn and Kata Darya basins and other Syr Darya sources; and 1,500 km2 in the Chu, Talas and Ysyk Kel basins. 87% of the territory is occupied by the river runoff generation area, with runoff in the average water year exceeding 47 billion m3. Annually rechargeable underground water resources of major artesian basins are estimated at 250 m2/s or 7.7 billion m3.

Surface river runoff and underground water resources are the principal source for irrigation farming, hydropower industry, municipal and potable water supply, food and manufacturing industries, fisheries and other waterconsuming sectors of the economy. River runoff is regulated by a system of reservoirs to provide for a more rational use of surface water resources, primarily, for irrigation farming and hydropower generation.

The largest water reservoirs are the Toktogul Reservoir on the Naryn River (19.5 billion m3); Kirov Reservoir on the Talas River (570 million m3); Orto Tokoy Reservoir on the Chu River (470 million m3); and the Papan Reservoir on the Ak-Buura River (260 million m3). A large part (up to 80%) of surface water source runoff crosses the national borders and is used by the neighboring countries.

Source: http://www.welcome.kg/ru/economics/husbandry/asdffg

Though it is located in the mountain river runoff generation zone, Kyrgyzstan uses only onefifth of these resources and always faces serious problems trying to protect riparian lands and population from floods, landslides, stream bank erosion, and drifting of soil and structures and other events, which require special attention and large expenditures.

During the survey (Sakhvaeva, 2008b) and subsequent discussions, the Department of Water Resources (Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Manufacturing Industry) emphasized that high quality current and archived data HMI were exceptionally important for day-to-day management (optimal performance) and long-term planning of the water sector, and design of related facilities.

Kyrgyzhydromet is the principal source of hydrometeorological information used by water sector specialists in their professional activity. It provides the sector with current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), and long-range forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month and 1-year periods), and EHH and HH warnings.

At present, hydrometeorological information used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, as well as by courier. In future, the internet/email is expected to be used as a preferred communication channel. According to the expert, the information presentation format was generally satisfactory for the currently available communication channels. Statistical data were specified as the preferred data presentation format.

The water sector expert assessed the forecast quality as ‘fairly low’ (i.e., it should be improved)’ in terms of accuracy and timeliness. The expert suggested that it would be useful for HH warnings to include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to mitigate the impact. This would allow optimization of activities designed to increase the yield and improve the quality of agricultural crops.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the water resources management and irrigation sector: temperature (current temperature); air humidity; precipitation (rain, hail, snow); and weather hazards (floods and mudflows, ground frosts, etc.). According to the expert, forecast reliability/accuracy needed significant improvement for precipitation, ground frosts and hail.

As noted by the expert, increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information, forecasts and warnings was an important factor for adequate and timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, reliable weather forecasts with a lead time of 1 day would make it possible to prepare machinery, organize standby duty, give warnings to the population, and have staff on site. Thus, reliable forecasts of river runoff for the vegetation period with a lead time of, say, 1 month and longer, would allow taking actions to provide for an efficient and rational use of water resources in reservoirs or warn users of the need to shift to drought resistant crops.

The current efficacy of HMI uses by the water sector was assessed by the expert as ‘high’. It was also noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time are an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning. To provide for optimal performance by its entities the sector is prepared to pay for the receipt of customized information.

At present, water sector entities assess damage from weather conditions and HH; however, they do not conduct economic assessment of benefits from HMI uses due to the lack of methodologies and qualified economists. Guaranteed budget funding of the sector gives no incentives either.

47

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

In addition to information and recommendations given in the checklist, experts and management of the Department of Water Resources attended the consultation workshop on “Improving the efficacy of weather and climate services delivery in the Kyrgyz Republic” where they took an active part in discussing Kyrgyzhydromet’s current status and capacity to meet user demand for its products and services.

The major obstacle to providing an adequate quality of hydrometeorological services, including specialist services, is related to the fact that the hydrological observation network has more than halved due to the lack of funds. Besides, the existing network needs new equipment, rehabilitation and construction.

In 2006, hydrological observations in the Chu River Basin were conducted only on three rivers – Alaarcha, Sokuluk and Chonkaindy – while in the early 1990s observations had been conducted at 29 gauging stations. It is of special concern that there are no gauging stations on the Chu River. The Chu Valley, with its irrigated area in excess of 300,000 ha and 75 water user associations, is a breadbasket for Kyrgyzstan, its population is increasing (has doubled over the last few years) due to internal migration flows leading to a higher demand for irrigation water.

Management of water resources becomes a real challenge in the absence of data on water resources amount. There is a pressing need to open earlier closed gauging stations (but it should be noted that priorities in restoration of hydrological sites need to be verified with end-users needs also).

The meteorological network is facing a similar situation: the number of weather stations and observation sites has halved, and it is especially alarming that a few high-altitude weather stations have been closed as well.

At present, Kyrgyzstan is preparing an Action Plan to develop, use and protect water resources in the Talas Basin, which had extreme difficulties with irrigation water supply in 2000, 2006 and 2008. It should be noted that the accuracy of hydrological forecasts for the Talas Basin rivers decreased due to the lack of observations in the high-altitude zone (the Uch Koshoy weather station had been closed). The forecasts for the 2008 year growing season were favorable (water flow was expected to be close to the norm) but actual water flow proved to be half as much as the forecast level.

The need for additional high-altitude weather stations is evident. Such observations would allow more accurate prognostic estimates which, in turn, would make it possible to avoid mistakes in the operation of water engineering facilities and to use water resources in a more rational way.

Kyrgyzhydromet’s human resources and staff qualifications, as well as the professional level of decision makers in the water sector, are another serious issue affecting hydrometeorological services. At present, middlelevel staff are not trained in Kyrgyzstan.

Most observers currently working in the network are selftaught specialists.

The expert also noted the issue of discontinued publication of basic hydrological sourcebooks: the publication of the Hydrological Yearbooks stopped after 1988 while the publication of the Basic Hydrological Parameters and the Water Quality Yearbooks discontinued after 1975. They are required for both long-term planning of sector operation and design of facilities. Relevance of the latter is related to the implementation of the Water Code which provides for the establishment of a Unified National Water Information System where Kyrgyzhydromet and its products should play a critical role.

3.2.4. HYDROPOWER INDUSTRY The country’s electricity industry is the foundation of its fuel and energy sector. Kyrgyzstan has 17 electric power plants with a total capacity of 3.6 million kW: 15 hydroelectric plants and 2 cogeneration plants.

The hydropower industry plays the key role in the national energy balance, which is related to availability of vast hydropower resources. The aggregate hydropower potential is 142 billion kWh, with the technical potential of 73 billion kWh and economic potential of 48 billion kWh. In terms of the two latter parameters, Kyrgyzstan is third among the CIS countries, yielding only to the Russian Federation and Tajikistan. Vast hydropower resources gave an impetus to a rapid development of the country’s energy sector which has been a large electricity producer in the Central Asia region since the early 1980s contributing over 50% of generated power to the Central Asia Unified Power Grid.

Figure 3.2: Hydropower generation and electricity distribution facilities

Source: photo by Natalya Iosipenko Source: photo by Sagyn Ailchiev

48

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Five powerful cascading hydroelectric plants (HEPs) have been built on the lower reaches of the Naryn River (see Table 3.2).

The Toktogul HEP with the installed capacity of 1,200,000 kW, is a unique hydropower and irrigation facility put into operation in 1976. It is connected to the grid by two high voltage (500 kV) aerial lines. The Naryn cascade includes other large energy facilities such as the Kurp Sai HEP (800,000 kW) and Uch Korgon HEP (180,000 kW). The Kurp Sai HEP is connected to the grid by 110-kV and 220-kV aerial power transmission lines (PTL) and the Uch Korgon HEP is connected by a 110kV PTL. Kyrgyzstan also operates 13 small hydroelectric plants with the installed capacity of 42 MW and annual output of 125 million kWh. Power output in 2007 was about 14.6 billion kWh, including 13.8 million kWh generated by HEPs. Annual power export to the neighboring countries is up to 2.5 billion kWh. Table 3.2 Large Hydropower Facilities Hydroelectric Plant Uch Korgon

Capacity (MW)

Power output (billion kWh)

First year of operation

180

0.75

1962

1,200

4.1

1975

At Bashyn

40

0.12

1982

Kurp Sai

800

2.6

1982

Tash Kemur

450

1.5

1987

Shamaldy Sai

240

0.91

1995

Toktogul

OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii, a HMI user, builds up its relationship with Kyrgyzhydromet on the basis of annual agreements and daily information exchange.

The hydropower industry is strongly dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards. The hydroelectric power expert (Butenko, 2008 b) rated them as follows according to the degree of impact: floods and mudflows, strong wind (hurricane, squall), heavy rain, heavy snow, very hot weather, and severe frost. Kyrgyzhydromet is the principal source of hydrometeorological information used by OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii. The sector uses current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), and long-range forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month and 1-year periods), and EHH and HH warnings.

Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are used for optimal performance, design of facilities and long-term planning purposes, including the development of short and long-term operation forecasts for power plants under OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii.

At present, the information used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, by courier, fax, and via worldwide web/email (all these channels are expected to be used in future). According to the expert, the information presentation format is generally satisfactory for the currently available communication channels. However, it would be desirable to receive such information as a text (descriptive information) and as statistical data and maps.

The expert assessed the forecast quality as ‘fairly low’ (i.e., should be improved)’ in terms of accuracy, and as ‘satisfactory’ in terms of timeliness. The expert suggested that the HH warnings should also include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions that might be taken to mitigate the impact. This would allow estimates of financial losses from specific types of HH to be determined. Entities under OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii assess damage from weather conditions and HH, including financial losses.

Expert noted that though hydrometeorological services are required by the electricity industry throughout the year high quality forecast data are critical in spring and summer.

In the expert’s opinion, increasing the lead time of meteorological and hydrological information delivery, forecasts and warnings would allow more timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, a reliable flood/mudflow forecasts with a lead time of 1 week or more would allow mudflow control/preflood drawdown of the Toktogul Reservoir when it reaches the floodcontrol storage level. Hydrological forecasts for the growing season would make it possible to adjust the Toktogul Reservoir operating conditions during this period and throughout the year (based on waterpower estimates), as well as to adjust existing plans and prepare the Reservoir for preflood drawdown when it reaches the floodcontrol storage level.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the electricity industry facilities: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); precipitation (rain, hail, snow); precipitation duration and intensity; and hydrometeorological hazards (floods and mudflows, etc.).

The expert noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time was an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning. Accuracy and timeliness of hydrological information (for a month, vegetation period or a year) improves the reliability of estimates of waterpower conditions in the Toktogul HEP reservoir as a multiyear storage reservoir, and power generation by HEPs under OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii.

Climate information is also used by the sector; however, as noted by the expert, there are no plans to use climate data in the future to take sector-specific measures with a view to improving performance taking into account climate change. Such an answer

49

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

may be accounted for by the fact that the expert represented the water engineering unit of OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii was not responsible for the issue.

Similar to the water sector expert, the survey participant from OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii complemented data and recommendations given in the checklist with specific proposals on how Kyrgyzhydromet could improve the delivery of hydrometeorological services to meet the needs of the electricity industry. These proposals were presented at the workshop on “Improving the efficacy of weather and climate service delivery in the Kyrgyz Republic”.

The expert believes that Kyrgyzhydromet’s current capacity is insufficient to meet the existing needs of the sector. For example, forecast information on water storage in the Naryn River basin, the principal water source of the power facility, and water inflow to the Toktogul HEP site before the growing season, should make it possible to calculate the annual balance of electricity generation by OJSC ES power plants as well as the water balance in the Toktogul Reservoir as a multiyear storage reservoir. However, the hydrometeorological forecasts are not satisfactory. In 2008, the forecasts for the growing season (information note of April 3, 2008) specified a range of 6.3-9.5 billion m3 of water, with an average value of 7.9 billion m3. In contrast, the actual level was 7.4 billion m3 for the growing season, with the annual flow value of 9.8 billion m3. Kyrgyzhydromet needs technical and financial assistance to improve information delivered to its clients as the observation network uses outdated instruments, equipment and communication means.

The electricity industry wants to have water resources forecast data for next 2-3 years to make coordinated intergovernmental decisions on water/power issues but there is no scientific basis for such forecasts yet.

Daily information on water inflow to the Toktogul HEP site and inflow from the lateral tributaries (Karasu Levaya and Karasu Pravaya) also requires improvement. Records of the water balance in the Uchkurgan HEP site are based only on power sector data because the gauging station built under the GEF program in the plant’s tail bay cannot provide accurate information on the amount of water going to Uzbekistan.

Continuous monitoring of weather conditions (snow, wind, and glaze ice) is also necessary for HEP safe operation with a view to timely prevention of accidents. Natural disasters (mudflows and floods) may lead to long-term shutdown of hydroelectric units causing stoppages of power supply to customers and significant losses to the power sector.

To meet the needs of hydroelectric plants OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii recommends to Kyrgyzhydromet to consider the following measures: • Restore formerly operational and abandoned posts on the Naryn River and its major tributaries; • Build new posts upstream of the newly constructed Kambaratin facilities as, following the commissioning of the second Kambaratin HEP, forecasts of the Naryn River water inflow to the Uchterek site would reflect water release from the Kambaratin Reservoir; • Build a post in the Atbash HEP site; • Restore the Karasu Pravaya post inundated by the reservoir; and • Build posts in the Uchkurgan HEP site.

3.2.5. HEAT AND POWER SUPPLY The country has two cogeneration plants (CP): in Bishkek and Osh. The Bishkek CP has the installed electrical capacity of 609,000 kW and the installed heat capacity of 1,157.4 Gcal/h. The Osh CP electrical/heat capacity is 22 MW and 375 Gcal/h, respectively. The CPs supply electricity and heat to the cities of Osh and Bishkek.

The expert who participated in the survey represented OJSC Bishkekteploset dispatch unit, which manages heat, steam and hot water supply to users in Bishkek (Bishkekteploset, 2008).

The heating networks were generally assessed as strongly dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards. The sector’s production activities are affected by spring and fall frosts and severe frost. Damage to fixed assets is related to severe frost, floods and mudflows. The principal sources of hydrometeorological (weather and climate) information used by Bishkekteploset include Kyrgyzhydromet and the internet. From Kyrgyzhydromet, the sector uses current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), climate outlooks (generalized for 1month periods), and EHH and HH warnings.

Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are used for optimal performance and long-term planning purposes. Planning of process equipment quantity and operating conditions and selection of network water temperature at CP exit for heating purposes during the heating season (from November 1 through March 31) is based on Kyrgyzhydromet’s 1 to 3-day forecasts and data on actual air temperature over the last 24 hours. The Bishkekteploset’s expert reported that errors in excess of one degree in the daily temperature result in economic losses than can reach as much as 100,000 soms/day.

In addition to economic losses, insufficiently accurate forecasts bring out environmental (larger atmospheric emissions of combustion products in the case of overheating) and, in the case of underheating, has significant social implications as the services (heating) are provided to child/health/education institutions and housing, which directly affects people’s health.

At present, HMI used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty. In future, communication means/ channels should be diversified to include fax, internet/email, and satellite data. The expert assessed the information presentation

50

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

format as generally satisfactory for the currently available communication channels. It would be desirable to receive such information as a text (descriptive information) and as statistical data and maps.

Though hydrometeorological services are required by the heat power industry throughout the year high quality forecast data are critical in spring, fall and winter. It would desirable to make decisions on the beginning/end of the heating season on the basis of forecasts with a longer lead time (up to 10 days). The cost of an earlier or later start of the heating season is estimated at KGS 0.5 – 5.0 million per day depending on established weather conditions.

In the expert’s opinion, increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information delivery, forecasts and warnings would allow timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, a reliable flood forecasts with a lead time of 3 days would give an opportunity to inspect places where heating pipelines cross rivers or canals and to take protective actions. A lead time of 4 days for heavy rain or strong wind forecasts are sufficient for inspecting roofs of pumping stations and other facilities.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the heating networks: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); precipitation (rain, snow); precipitation duration and intensity; wind speed; visibility; and hydrometeorological hazards (floods and mudflows, etc.). Temperature, precipitation, wind and HH forecasts are used to plan management and quantity of operating equipment, and conduct repair and other works. Data on actual temperature of ambient air and soil (at heating network depths) are used to make engineering, design and financial calculations. HH forecasts are critical for taking preventive actions and reducing damage to Bishkekteploset production assets and activities.

The expert noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality, and with an appropriate lead time, are an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning. Longer term plans are based on monthly weather forecasts.

There is also a requirement for even longer lead time products that would provide quarterly, seasonal, and annual outlooks. The sector uses climate information and is planning to use it in future to take sector-specific measures with a view to improving performance taking into account climate change.

Bishkekteploset entities assess damage from weather conditions and HH, including financial losses. Statistical information is used for long-term planning of the amount of heat to be supplied (amount of fuel to be purchased and stored for heat sources).

Data on mean annual and mean monthly temperature of ambient air and soil (at heating network depths) are used to determine financial and economic indicators, costs and technical losses. Standard costs are recalculated into actual costs for settlements with customers on the basis of actual temperature values for the past period. Besides, standard temperature values are used to make engineering estimates and design buildings and heating networks.

In general, the expert assessed hydrometeorological services provided by Kyrgyzhydromet as ‘nearly satisfactory’ and confirmed the sector’s preparedness to pay for hydrometeorological services customized to meet the specific needs of OJSC Bishkekteploset.

As to the future use of Kyrgyzhydromet’s products and services, the expert from the Bishkek heating supply system noted that: • The value of forecasts for the sector will depend on their timeliness and accuracy; • It would be expedient to diversify information delivery channels to include the worldwide web, fax, etc.; and • In future, it would be desirable to conduct real-time temperature observations in meteorologically certified weather sites located in different city districts and along the city boundary to allow real-time adjustment of the heat supply regime.

3.2.6. TRANSPORT The KR transport sector is represented by: road transport, air transport, water transport, railways, pipelines, and roads. Railways and pipelines have a limited development capacity due to the mountain terrain. Road transport plays the key role in freight and passenger movement. It accounts for over 90% of freight traffic (the share of railways is 5.8% and the share of pipelines is 4%). The total length of the road network is 36,700 km, including 27,900 km of paved roads (the length of railways is 400 km, the length of gas pipelines is 200 km, and the length of inland waterways is 500 km). The country has only 4 airports with paved runways. There is a port of Balykchi on Lake Issyk-Kul. The road network has the highest density in the north, namely in the Issyk-Kul Depression and Fergana Valley. There are several strategically important roads in the Tien Shan Mountains. One of them links the country’s largest centers – Bishek and Osh – via the Tyuo-Ashuu Pass (3,586 m) and the Ala-Bel Pass (3,184 m); the other goes from Balykchi to Naryn wherefrom it heads for high-altitude Lake Chatyr-Kel, and then leads to China via the Torugart Pass (3,752 m); and the third road goes from Osh to the Pamirs (the Pamir Route).

The expert who participated in the survey represented the Bishkek-Osh Highway National Directorate (BOHND). BOHND reports to the KR Ministry of Transport and Communications and manages the Bishkek-Osh National Highway, the related public road network, engineering facilities located therein, buildings occupied by the road operation and maintenance units, and roadside services.

BOHND performs supervision, execution and authorization functions in the part of the road sector within its terms of reference; coordinates activities of its subordinate units; and acts as a unified client and coordinator in respect of all works implemented by

51

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

legal entities and individuals participating in the Bishkek-Osh Highway Rehabilitation Project, as well as subsequent highway operation.

The sector was generally assessed by the expert (Abasbekov, 2008) as moderately dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards. The expert ranked hydrometeorological events in the following order proceeding from their impact on BOHND operation: strong wind (hurricane, squall), fall frosts, severe frost, heavy rain, violent hailstorm, dust storm, drought, dry (hot) wind, heavy snow, avalanche, spring frosts, floods and mudflows, and very hot weather.

The principal sources of hydrometeorological (weather, water resources and climate) information used by the road sector include Kyrgyzhydromet and the worldwide web (www.gismeteo.ru). Kyrgyzhydromet provides the sector with short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month periods), and EHH/HH warnings.

Hydrometeorological information and forecast is used for optimal performance and design of facilities. At present, HMI used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, as well as via fax and worldwide web/email; satellite data are also used.

In general, the expert assessed the format of information presentation by Kyrgyzhydromet as ‘unsatisfactory’ despite a very high frequency of information use: several times a day. It would be desirable to receive such information as a text (descriptive information) and maps. High quality forecast data are critical to the road sector in spring, fall and winter.

The expert assessed the forecast quality as ‘fairly low (should be improved)’ in terms of accuracy, and as ‘satisfactory’ in terms of timeliness. Reliability of HH forecast and warnings were rated as ‘fairly low’ (should be improved)’, and their timeliness as ‘very low’ (should be significantly improved)’. Information on the area to be affected by HH and the event duration was assessed as ‘satisfactory’.

If HH warnings could include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to mitigate the implications, it would allow impact reduction.

According to the expert, forecast reliability/accuracy was currently satisfactory for air temperature, precipitation, wind speed/ direction, ground frosts, hail, and dry (hot) winds. Forecast accuracy/reliability was unsatisfactory for floods and mudflows, and HH warnings. Kyrgyzhydromet delays the delivery of avalanche forecasts, which are made after/during rather than before snowfalls.

Increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information delivery, forecast and warnings would allow timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, a reliable hydrometeorological forecast with a lead time of 3 days or 10 days would make it possible to warn all units and take preparatory actions to mitigate the impact.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the road sector: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); precipitation (rain, hail, snow); precipitation duration and intensity; wind speed, including wind gusts; visibility; and hydrometeorological hazards (floods and mudflows, etc.).

The expert noted that using HMI and forecast of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time was an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning. Accurate and quick delivery of hydrometeorological information to the road sector entities is a prerequisite for its efficient and timely use.

BOHND units assess damage from weather conditions and HH; however, they do not assess the cost of benefits from HMI use as, according to the expert, “it requires hard labor and specific specialists”.

The expert generally assessed hydrometeorological services provided by Kyrgyzhydromet as ‘nearly unsatisfactory’ and requiring the improvement of product/service types and quality. At the same time, the expert expressed a categorical refusal to feebased arrangements of provision of Kyrgyzhydromet’s services for his sector.

3.3. EVALUATION OF SECTOR NEEDS AND NMHS CAPACITY The results of the survey, consultations with NMHS staff and sector experts, and discussion of HMI needs of weather-dependent sectors of the economy at the consultation workshop on improving the efficacy of weather and climate service delivery in the Kyrgyz Republic (Bishkek, December 16, 2008) demonstrated that the pressing issue of hydrometeorological service improvement was well understood by both Kyrgyzhydromet (the provider of products and services) and all key users and stakeholders.

Many users need information that Kyrgyzhydromet cannot provide at present. Users are well informed about NMHS has serious weaknesses such as: a low-density network of weather and gauging stations resulting in inadequate coverage of the highaltitude zone by meteorological observations; an almost complete absence of automated technical facilities, weather radars, and modern technologies and means for remote data processing and telecommunication; and critical conditions of Kyrgyzhydromet facilities and data archive.

The situation has a negative impact on the quality of observation data and forecasts (especially forecasts of hydrometeorological disasters), on how efficiently public, sector-specific and user needs can be met, and how the country can fulfill its international and regional obligations, including those under the Global Observation System.

52

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Thus, in the winter 2007/2008, fuel and energy sector entities and media wanted to know where and when the frosts would be over while the capacity of Kyrgyzhydromet, in the absence of a good national observing network, allows it to make only general meteorological forecasts using ECMWFâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s global model. Day-to-day operations of Ministry of Emergency Situations departments require that they have information on a specific river where mudflows or floods are expected with a lead time of 4-6 months, while Kyrgyzhydromet produces only background disaster warnings for all regional rivers. The energy and water resources management sectors need runoff forecast with the longest possible lead time not only for the entire growing season but also for specific months.

Judicial/investigative and tax authorities need to have information on actual hydrometeorological conditions in specific places while Kyrgyzhydromet can provide data only for the closest weather or gauging station (it should be noted that, in a complex mountain terrain, meteorological conditions at a weather station can differ from those in the requested place).

All sector experts indicated that prognostic and other information products provided by KR NMHS were highly important both for the sectors as a whole and their core activities in terms of timely management decision making on protective actions and optimal performance. The experts noted the need to use of hydrometeorological forecast of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time as an important means of improving their day-to-day operations and long-term planning.

The experts also formulated/specified their requirements to hydrometeorological information (hydrometeorological elements and types of observations) necessary for optimal performance, as well as recommendations and proposals to Kyrgyzhydromet so that it could improve and customize hydrometeorological services. In particular, practically all of them noted the need to demonstrate the significance of an efficient use of hydrometeorological information and forecast with a view to obtaining additional economic benefits, to conduct targeted advisory activities, and to improve the website (www.meteo.ktnet.kg).

It would be expedient to assess the cost effectiveness of HMI and forecast use by various sectors of the economy and finalize the website using the Hydrometeorological Center as a basis. The work should be done proceeding from respective experience generated by WMO and CIS countries.

Joint advisory and training workshops on the use of new hydrometeorological information and forecast are expected to be organized through the establishment of the Observation Staff Retraining and Professional Development Center. Such workshops could provide for exchange of experience and develop common requirements to new types of information products, forecast accuracy and lead time, information presentation formats, etc. That would allow structuring relations between NMHS staff and users on the basis of new principles.

Therefore, the sector experts confirmed the need for NMHS radical refurbishment, introduction of modern automated and distance observation methods and data collection/processing systems, and provision of customized hydrometeorological forecast and services to users in the key weather-dependent sectors of the economy. The experts noted not only their interest in NMHS development and modernization but also their preparedness for higher quality forecast and new types of information products developed on the basis of modern HMI presentation technologies and accessibility of data and information products. Some expressed sectoral readiness to provide compensation to Kyrgyzhydromet for customized or tailor-made hydrometeorological data and information.

Besides, the sector experts emphasized that significant economic losses were accounted for by inadequate interaction between Kyrgyzhydromet and key HMI users which was related to the fact that NMHS had no technical or technological capacity to provide requisite hydrometeorological information and forecast, especially on the regional level. Therefore, Kyrgyzhydromet modernization was a critical and topical issue.

They also noted the importance of involving experts from a number of ministries and agencies in determining user needs for hydrometeorological information and services and assessing the benefits of the work for Kyrgyzhydromet and the users. The work should continue with a view to estimating the optimal level of budget funding required to minimize economic losses and identify the most efficient investments.

3.4. SUMMARY Each of the weather and climate sensitive sectors that contributed to this study reported that they used current information, shortrange forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), and long-range forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month and 1-year periods), and EHH/HH warnings supplied by Kyrgyzhydromet. In general, their assessment of the quality, reliability and timeliness of the products and services provided by Kyrgyzhydromet ranged from poor to satisfactory. Improving hydrometeorological observations and the accuracy and means of delivery of forecast products and services is a high priority amongst users. They also highlighted the importance of including users in any modernization process to ensure that future products and services aligned with user needs.

53

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

CHAPTER 4. ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE DELIVERY 4.1. GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUNDS OF ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT The economic assessment carried out under this study sought to estimate the potential aggregate benefits that accrue to business activities in the country from the improved quality (accuracy and timeliness) of the hydrometeorological information and services delivered by Kyrgyzhydromet following its modernization. The benefits associated with the economic value of hydrometeorological information for the household sector and improvement of human life and safety were not assessed.

The assessment approaches envisage generalization and calculation of countrywide losses from EHHs and HHs and estimation of possible variation of the share and absolute amount of incremental effects (benefits in terms of potentially avoided losses) due to more accurate and timely hydrometeorological information and forecasts as a result of modernization program. It was assumed that benefits of modernization will be realized during 7 years (implementation of the Program and effective operation of the new technologies, hardware and equipment, as well as the NMHS fixed assets at the postimplementation stage). Therefore, the potential returns on modernization investments were calculated by comparing aggregate amount of incremental benefits during the 7-year period and the programâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s costs.

Three modernization options were considered while elaborating recommendations for Kyrgyzhydromet12: (i) Large scale program of actions on strengthening and technical upgrading (USD12.8 million); (ii) Low budget minimum option designed to retain the current capacity and strengthen cooperation with users (USD3.55 million); and (iii) Moderate cost, high impact program designed to achieve many of the objectives of the first option, but with less investment in automation of the observing network and implementation of information technologies (USD8.3 million).

The moderate investment program (USD8.3 million) option is offered as the basic option in the assessment of economic benefits of investing in the Kyrgyzhydromet modernization. It is expected that the basic option will be implemented within 4 to 5 years.

Economic losses were generalized and estimated on the basis of three independent approaches, namely meteorological risks assessment, benchmarking method and sector-specific assessment.

There are a number of complexities in the assessment of economic benefits for Kyrgyzstan similar to that observed in the other countries of ECA region where the team has undertaken economic review of weather related damages. The main concern is the absence of systematic recording of damage/losses (both in physical and value terms) incurred by the economy, its sectors and population from the entire range of EHHs and HHs. Thus it was necessary to apply several complementary approaches to double check data and ensure the integrity of the results.

The economic efficacy of investing in the Kyrgyzhydromet modernization was assessed on the basis of the benchmarking and sector-specific assessment methods. The cost/benefit analysis was also conducted by applying the data on average annual losses calculated through the sector-specific assessments.

Sector-specific approach was developed and applied during preparation of the National Hydrometeorological Modernization project in Russia (World Bank, 2004). Benchmarking approach was employed through developing approaches of economic assessment for a sample of national meteorological and hydrological service modernization initiatives in Europe and Central Asia (World Bank, 2008c). Proposed approaches are far from being perfect and intended to estimate potential benefits of modernization under conditions of highly scarce and unreliable data.

4.2. APPROACHES TO ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS 4.2.1. BENCHMARKING METHOD When preparing information for the assessment of economic benefits no statistical data on the value of damage caused by hydrometeorological hazards was available from the official sources of statistics (at the national level, in the ministries, agencies and in Kyrgyzhydromet. In order to obtain the corresponding information special consultations with Kyrgyzhydromet specialists and experts of the weather-dependent sectors were conducted.

The initial assessment of economic benefits was based on the benchmarking method developed in the course of the regional review of the ECA national hydrometeorological services (Tsirkunov V. et al, 2008c). This review was carried by the World Bank in 2005-2007 for the countries of Southern Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia), some Balkan countries (Albania and Serbia), as well as for the Republic of Belarus, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Most of these countries do not record data on the actual total and sector-specific economic losses caused by hydrometeorological hazards and unfavorable weather conditions.

Benchmarking was developed to estimate economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information and services for the national economy. The assessment was based on (i) available national official macroeconomic and sector-specific statistics; (ii) 12

54

The rationale and description of the proposed modernization options are presented in Chapter 5.

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

weather-dependence of the economy; (iii) vulnerability of the country’s territory to weather hazards13; (iv) the NMHS status and the quality of hydrometeorological service provision in a given surveyed country; and (v) the values of the key parameters obtained through the surveys of experts and studies carried out in other countries.

Benchmarking is a simplified method, and it does not require detailed analytical studies or timeconsuming surveys. Despite the limitations in the application of this method, its findings provide a reasonable benchmark to identify the levels of direct economic losses from weather hazards and disasters, as well as the economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information in a specific country. A detailed description of the benchmarking approach, including its main assumptions and limitations, is given in Tsirkunov V. et al, 2006).

Benchmarking comprises a staged approach.

The first stage defines the average values of two key parameters, which are adjusted against the GDP of the country. These key parameters are: 1) The level of annual direct economic losses caused by hydrometeorological hazards as a share of GDP14; 2) The level of annual prevented losses (i.e. losses that are potentially avoided due to the use of improved weather forecasts and warnings as a result of modernization) expressed as a percentage of the total losses15; In the second stage, the benchmarks are adjusted following assessment of the key country-specific parameters (weather and climate conditions, structure of economy, NMHS status, and so on.

Finally, the estimates obtained for a country are used for calculating the marginal efficacy of the potential improvement of hydrometeorological services following the proposed modernization program.

4.2.2. SECTOR-SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT The assessment of the economic efficacy of the NMHS modernization is based on comparing the amount of potentially preventable losses with the required expenditures on the prevention of these losses and planned expenditures on the modernization of NMHS. With this approach the economic efficacy the NMHS modernization is calculated as a ratio of the potential effect to the planned expenditures on the modernization. The potential effect is expressed as the additional prevented losses from weather hazards expected due to the improved timeliness and quality of forecasts and warnings with the deduction of expenditures needed to produce these forecasts and warnings.

This assessment method is based on sector studies for the most important (as a share of GDP) weather-dependant sectors of the national economy. The sector studies calculate the following two key parameters (more details on the method assumptions and sample questionnaires can be found in Tsirkunov et al, 2006) • The potential preventable losses as percentage of the total losses, which could be avoided through modernization (multiplication of two ratios: Ri•Si), where Ri is a percentage of the possible preventable losses with the current quality of hydrometeorological forecasts (i.e. prior to modernization), and Si is the percentage of the possible preventable losses that would accrue due to improved hydrometeorological services; • Percentage of the changes in the level of expenditures on preventive (protective) measures as a result of more accurate and timely hydrometeorological information and services (∆i).

The findings of the sector experts’ assessments can be divided into two main groups: (i) general information concerning the scope and quality of the hydrometeorological information used, as well as the level of the losses incurred due to weather hazards; and (ii) assessment of the key ratios (key parameters) required to assess the economic benefits from the NMHS modernization.

The key parameters are assessed in two stages.

The first stage includes an expert assessment of these parameters for specific sectors. As the basic parameters (Ri and Si) are determined using expert assessments, it would be expedient to perform a scenario analysis, that is, to use a few (rather than one) values of a coefficient within a certain range. The extreme values of the coefficients shall be used for the best and worst (most unlikely) cases and the mean value shall be used for the base (most likely) case.

At the second stage, the base case mean estimate is used to calculate the mean values of basic coefficients required for a comprehensive assessment of the economic efficacy of the NMHS modernization.

13 The vulnerability of the territory to weather hazards was assessed as a function of the observed extreme and threshold values of major meteorological parameters, among which temperature (minimum and maximum), precipitation and wind, considered with characteristics of their statistical distributions.

14 The average annual values of losses from hydrometeorological hazards are assumed to be 0.45% of GDP. The range of annual losses is assumed to be from 0.1 to 1.0 % of GDP. There is no comprehensive data base on this important parameter, the estimates available in the literature vary from less than 0.1% to over 5% of GDP. 15 The level of average annual prevented losses – as a percentage of total losses – 40% (range – from 20 to 60 %).

Weather dependence of the economy means the aggregate share of the weather-dependent sectors in GDP, with the year average value of 50%.

Share of agriculture in GDP: the mean annual value – 15%; Weather vulnerability: the mean value is “average”.

The status of NMHS service delivery and hydrometeorological information provisions: the mean value – “satisfactory”

55

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

On the basis of statistical data or expert assessments of economic losses from weather, the mean values of basic coefficients the potential effect and economic efficacy of the NMHS modernization are calculated respectively.

4.3. RESULTS OF THE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE PROPOSED KYRGYZHYDROMET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 4.3.1. BENCHMARKING ASSESSMENT Using information from Kyrgyzhydromet, the study determined the key parameters required to calculate the marginal (least) economic effect of the hydrometeorological service provision with respect to the current status of the NMHS and after its proposed development and technical and technological modernization. The results of assessing such parameters are presented in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1 Key Parameters for Benchmarking Assessment Indicators

Value

Weather dependency of the economy, % Share of agriculture in GDP, % Status of NMHS and hydrometeorological service provision Vulnerability to weather hazards Average annual GDP in 2000-2007 (USD million in the 2006 prices) Average annual financing of NMHS in 2000-2007 (USD million in the 2006 prices)***

47.8% 31.6% 1* 3* 2 633 0.442

*rank from 1 to 5 (from “very poor” to “”excellent”) **range variable ranking from 1 to 5 (from “low” to “high”) ** the proceeds from all budget sources, including specialized hydrometeorological service provisions Source: Kyrgyzhydromet data and authors’ estimates

The GDP share of the Kyrgyzstan sectors, which are exposed to substantial negative impact of hydrometeorological hazards, is 48%. This rates the weather-dependence of the national economy as “average” (see Section 1.3), although the agriculture’s input to national GDP is the highest as compared to most of the countries that were reviewed in ECA region earlier (32% of GDP).

The survey of experts from Kyrgyzhydromet showed that in Kyrgyzstan, like in many other transition countries, the NMHS suffered heavily from the chronic massive under financing, which has resulted in gradual ageing and degradation (technical and technological) of the physical infrastructure of the service. Thus, for the purpose of this study, the status of NMHS and hydrometeorological service provision was rated as “poor”. The vulnerability of the country’s territory to weather hazards as whole was rated as “average”. The mean annual GDP for the period 2002-2006 was assessed at USD2,633 million. The amount of average annual NMHS’s financing is about USD0.44 million for the same period, or 0.017% of the GDP indicator (Table 4.1).

Table 4.2 presents the main results of assessing economic losses due to weather impacts and the marginal economic benefits from the use of the improved hydrometeorological information and services.

Table 4.2 Main Results of Benchmarking Assessment (in 2006 prices) Average annual losses incurred caused by weather hazards (USD million) Average annual losses incurred (% of GDP)

24.9 1.0

Average annual preventable losses (USD million)

10.1

Average annual incremental benefits due to improvement of hydrometeorological information and services (USD million) Investment effectiveness, % (across 7 years) Source: Authors’ estimates

56

2.9 244

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Preliminary efficiency assessments of hydrometeorological services provided by the NMHS, as estimated by the benchmarking method, indicated that the Kyrgyz economy currently loses annually on average USD25 million, or about KGS1,000 million (in the 2006 prices) due to weather-related damage. The absolute values of average annual preventable losses (over USD10 million) were obtained by assessing the prevented loss factor which, in the case of Kyrgyzstan, was 0.29, i.e. higher than in Tajikistan (0.19), but lower than the mean prevented loss factor for Kazakhstan (0.33) and Turkmenistan (0.35). For more details see Korshunov A.( 2008).

Annual incremental benefits for the national economy that would result from upgrading and developing the Kyrgyzhydromet amount to USD2.9 million, or over KGS115 million in 2006 prices (it was assumed for assessment purposes that the current conditions would improve by two grades: from “very poor” to “adequate”). Thus, investment of USD8.3 million, which is estimated as sufficient for upgrading NMHS conditions to “adequate”, may pay off in three years following modernization, while the effectiveness of such investment over 7 years may even exceed 240%.

4.3.2. SECTOR-SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT According to the sector-specific assessment methodology, assessment of the economic efficacy of the Kyrgyzstan’s NMHS modernization included the determination of the following key parameters: (i) The possible preventable losses as percentage of the total level of losses, which could be prevented through modernization (according to the methodology applied, this is the multiplication of two ratios: Ri•Si); (ii) Percentage of the avoided costs of the preventive (protective) measures as a result of more accurate and timely hydrometeorological information (i).

The weather-dependant sectors were identified through consultations with experts from Kyrgyzhydromet. The experts from those sectors were invited to complete the survey. The pool of experts who participated in the survey, represented the MoES, agriculture and water management sectors (under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Management, and Processing Industries), electric power sector (OAO Electric Power Stations), and heat generating sector (OJSC ‘Bishkekteploset’). The survey was carried out with the assistance of specialists from Kyrgyzhydromet.

ASSESSING KEY PARAMETERS FOR THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC The key parameters were calculated in two stages. At Stage I the experts evaluated these parameters for specific sectors of the economy under three scenarios to arrive at the interval evaluation of the parameters surveyed. Based on the average assessment (basic scenario), Stage II calculated the values of the key ratios to carry out the integral assessment of the economic benefits of the Kyrgyzstan’s NMHS development program. The sector-specific assessments and the mean values of the key parameters are presented in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3 Assessing the Key Ratios for Basic Scenario (Changes of the Level of Potential Preventable Losses from the Weatherrelated Damages Following the Modernization Program Ri

Si

Ri·Si

Agriculture16 Water resources17

0.1

0.15

0.015 0.15

Electricity generation18 MEAN RATIO FOR 3 SECTORS

0.95

0.125

Ministry of Emergency Situations19 MEAN RATIO, INC. MOES ASSESSMENT

0.45

0.11

0.119 0.095 0.05 0.075

Sector

Note: For the water resources sector, the expert promptly provided the assessment of the changes in the level of the possible preventable losses through the improvement of the accuracy and lead time of the forecasts (an average value was taken).

For the electricity generating sector, Ri values were pegged to the basic scenario; For the heat generating sector, there are no assessments; therefore, there is no questionnaire for the heat generating sector.

16

Eletski, A., 2008 Sakhvaeva Ekaterina P, 2008a.

18 Butenko L. 2008a.

19 Meleshko Alexander, 2008.

17

57

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Thus, a percentage of the total losses, which could be prevented through modernization, was assessed in the range from 5% (MoES expert) to 15 % (expert from water resources sector). The incremental economywide benefits due to implementation of proposed modernization program are estimated further using two values of this indicator: mean value of assessments by sectoral experts (9.5%), and mean value of integral sectoral assessment and MoES expert estimate (7.5%). The latter is applied to calculate the lower bound of potential incremental prevented losses.

The values obtained correspond with the sectoral assessments made under the similar studies in other ECA countries. In particular, for Tajikistan (Korshunov A., 2008), the value of this indicator is 9.7%, for Russia it is 8.4% (Tsirkunov V. et al, 2004).

THE MAIN RESULTS OF ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL Assessment of the economic benefits was based on the following equation estimating economic effectiveness: Е = (V•R•S – ∆•C)/PC, (1) where “V” means the average annual economic losses caused by EHHs and HHs, “C” means the cost of protective activities, and “PC” means the costs of Kyrgyzstan’s NMHS Development Program.

According to the equation, in order to calculate the percentage of the economic losses “E”, which will be reduced through the NMHS upgrade and development, it will be necessary to determine the parameters “V” and “C” in addition to the key parameters R•S and ∆.

The sectoral experts (except for the experts from the power generating sector) failed to provide data or their estimate of the cost of protective activities for their specific sector. The MoES experts provided such data for the national economy as a whole.

But they noted that at the current level of financing (inadequate) the protective activities, the percentage of changes in the level of expenditures on preventive (protective) measures incremental (∆•C) as a result of more accurate and timely hydrometeorological information (∆i) will remain unchanged. In particular, this means that the (∆•C) element in the equation (1) will be zero.

Thus, the equation can be expressed as: Е = V•R•S/PC, (2) To determine the value of the average annual level of economic losses “V” from the hydrometeorological impacts, we apply the data available from the MoES and the evaluations obtained through meteorological risk assessment.

The single official source of aggregate data on economic losses are records of material losses incurred by the economy and population due to the emergencies, including hydrometeorological impacts, which are maintained by the Main Operations Department of the KR MoES. These annual catalogs are compiled from the operational reports, which describe all types of the emergencies observed on the territory of Kyrgyzstan. As assessed by MoES and Kyrgyzhydromet experts, hydrometeorological hazards account for about 70% of economic losses suffered from recorded emergencies. The MoES estimates of total damages were downscaled using the factor 0.7 accordingly.

Table 4.4 presents the economic losses from EHHs in 2002-2006 calculated on the basis of the available information on damages from EHHs20.

Table 4.4 Direct Economic Losses from the HighImpact Hydrometeorological Hazards (the Mean Values Are Given in the Prices of 2006).

Indicators MoES: At current prices, KGS million At 2006 prices, KGS million

2002

2004

2005

2006

236.9 303.4

256.4 300.4

295.9 510.1

160.5 160.5

At 2006 prices, USD million

7.7

7.5

12.7

4.0

2002-2006

Average annual losses, KGS million (at 2006 prices)

318.4

Average annual losses, USD million (at 2006 prices)

8.0

Source: Authors’ estimates

20

The data provided on the losses in 2003 (total amount - KGS3,576 million) is not above reproach. Analysis of the hydrometeorological emergencies by type and occurrence for specific years during the considered period pleads inconsistency of this figure even with consideration of the observed aboveaverage level of precipitation. Thereafter, the estimate for the year of 2003 was eliminated as an outlier.

58

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

The average annual direct economic losses at the national level resulted in the amount of KGS318.4 million (or USD8 million).

But this estimate does not include damages associated with frosts and droughts as they are not recorded in MoES catalogs. At the same time, this figure makes up only 2/3 of losses resulting from meteorological risk assessment (some USD12.4 million) for total losses resulting from mudflows, floods, avalanches, snowfalls, rainstorms, hail, and hurricane force wind.

The MoES’s statistics underestimate losses from hydrometeorological hazards since it is based on fragmental monetary assessments of specific high-impact HHs and does not take into account the entire spectrum of the most significant crosssectoral weather impacts.

Thereafter, potential preventable losses were calculated using annual average economic obtained from meteorological risk assessment (USD27.3 million) estimated earlier on the basis of available information on the average annual frequency of frosts and droughts occurrence and damage calculated per one event.

The other assumption proposed for consideration, relates to the fact that MoES’s data do not take into account losses resulting from less-than-critical (extreme) HHs, and damages which become apparent after the emergency occurred or due to combination of HHs and unfavorable weather conditions. Data on indirect losses resulting, for example, in agriculture from reduced yield, quality of products, and lost profits (which can be much higher than 50% in crop production) is completely absent.

To fill this gap, it was suggested to introduce an adjustment factor by using the assessments that were carried out during ECA regional study in the Caucasian countries. For this purpose, the economic losses data obtained from NMHS specialists from Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, including those prepared on the basis of the official statistical data were used. For Georgia (the share of agriculture in GDP is 25%), the indirect economic losses/direct economic losses ratio was 0.45. For Armenia (with the share of agriculture in GDP is 30%), this ratio was 1.15, and for Azerbaijan (the share of agriculture in GDP is 12%), this ratio was 0.2421.

These data indicate that, given the role of agriculture in its GDP and the comparable climate and geographic/elevation specifics, Georgia is the most relevant benchmark for the Kyrgyz Republic. Thereupon, an adjustment factor of 0.45 was used to calculate indirect losses which compound some additional USD12.3 million. In this case, the aggregate direct and indirect weather-related economic losses in the Kyrgyz Republic could be as high as USD39.6 million, or KGS 1,580 million at 2006 prices.

Further evaluations of annual average incremental effects following modernization due to respective improvements of accuracy and lead time of hydrometeorological forecasts and information are based on the interval estimation of the average annual level of economic losses “V” from both the direct and indirect impacts of hydrometeorological hazards: USD3.0 million (the lower bound value assessment with the annual increment calculated using mean value of share of prevented losses from integral sectoral assessment and MoES expert estimate – 7.5%) and USD3.9 million (the upper bound value based on the sector-specific assessment by experts from three critically weather-dependent sectors of Kyrgyz economy – agriculture, water resources and electricity generation – 9.5%).

Taking the above data on the assessment of the total average annual economic losses and interval of the percentage of preventable losses, which could be avoided due to the implementation of the Modernization Program, as well as the above assumptions, the economic effectiveness “E” is calculated. The results of the calculations are summarized in Table 4.5.

Assuming that this average annual incremental effect will be realized during 7 years, the total potential benefits could be as high as USD21.0 – 26.6 million. This means that the economic effectiveness of the Project (with the Project cost of USD8.3 US million at 2006 prices) will be 251% – 318%.22.

In other words, sector-specific assessment shows that each dollar invested into the Kyrgyzstan’s NMHS modernization may generate USD2.9 – 3.2 of benefits to the national economy as a whole in terms of avoided losses.

Table 4.5 Assessment of Economic Benefits from the Kyrgyzstan’s NMHS Development Program

Average annual economic losses “V”

KGS1,580million (or USD39.6 million)

Share of prevented losses through modernization R*S, %

Annual incremental effect

Economic efficacy of the Project “Е” (%)

7.5

KGS 120 million (USD3.0 million) KGS150 million (USD3.8 million)

251

9.5

318

Note: in 2006, the official rate of exchange was KGS40.16 /USD1.0 Source: Authors’ assessments

21 Tsirkunov, V., A. Korshunov, M. Smetanina, and S. Ulatov. 2006. Assessment of Economic Efficiency of Hydrometeorological Services in the Countries of the Caucasus Region. Report prepared as part of Weather/Climate Services pilot study in the countries of Europe and Central Asia.

22 The lower bound assessment correlates with the benchmarking assessments: 244%

59

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF NMHS MODERNIZATION FOR SELECTED SECTORS WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SECTOR To determine the value of the average annual level of direct economic losses “V” from the hydrometeorological impacts on the water resources management sector, the data made available by the expert was used23. The economic losses data for 20032007 is presented in Table 4.6. These also contain the recommendations of the sector expert’s prospects vision for the Kyrgyzhydromet development program.

Table 4.6 Economic Losses from the Impacts of Hydrometeorological hazards in Water sector Indicators KGS million, at current prices

2003

2004

11.0

18.9

KGS million, at 2006 prices

13.5

22.2

USD million, at 2006 prices

0.34

0.55

2005

2006 22.0

Not available

2007

22.0

26.0 22.9

0.55

0.57

Average annual losses, KGS million (at 2006 prices)

20.4

Average annual losses, USD million (at 2006 prices)

0.5

Source: Authors’ assessments

Using the assessment of the changes in the level of the potential preventable losses from the impact of weather-related phenomena as determined by the water management expert (see Table 4.3), and applying the equation (2) we will receive: Е1 = USD0.5 million*0.15 = USD0.075 million (or KGS3.0 million).

Here “E” means an annual incremental effect to be accrued by the water resources management sector through the Kyrgyzhydromet Modernization Program implementation.

Thus, the Modernization Program will generate for the water resources management sector an annual incremental benefit of about KGS3.0 million, or USD0.08 million (in 2006 prices) in terms of avoided losses.

ELECTRICITY GENERATION The data made available from the OAO Electric Power Stations expert (Butenko, 2008a) was applied to determine the value of the average annual level of direct economic losses “V” from the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards on the electricity generating sector. The economic losses data for 2000-2006 is presented in Table 4.7.

At the same time, the value of the increment in the level of the possible preventable losses from the impact of hydrometeorological hazards (see Table 4.3) is 0.119. Thus, in accordance with the equation (2) we will have: Е1 = USD0.6 million * 0.119 = USD0.072 million (or KGS2.9 million).

Hence, the Kyrgyzhydromet Modernization Program will generate for the power generating sector an annual incremental benefit (through avoided losses) up to KGS3 million (or USD0.07 million).

Table 4.7 Economic Losses from the Hydrometeorological hazards in Electricity generating sector 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

KGS million, current prices

9.0

9.2

8.0

14.0

22.0

30.0

35.5

KGS million, 2006 prices

12.6

12.0

10.3

35.5

USD million, 2006 prices

0.31

0.30

0.26

25.8 0.64

51.7 1.29

0.88

17.2 0.43

Average annual losses, KGS million (at 2006 prices)

23.6

Average annual losses, USD million (at 2006 prices)

0.6

Source: Authors’ assessments

23

Sakhvaeva, Ekaterina P. 2008a. Department of Water Resources (KR Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Processing Industry): Responses to Questionnaire on Expert’s Assessment of Economic Benefits in Sector due to NHMS Modernization. Bishkek.

60

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

AGRICULTURE Since the expert found it difficult to estimate absolute values of direct losses “V” due to the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards and unfavorable weather conditions, the following assumptions, stemming from previous similar studies, were proposed.

According to the empirical data, in countries with a relatively high share of agriculture in GDP (and Kyrgyzstan is attributed to such countries) such losses could be considerably higher since agriculture is subject to the highest impacts from EHHs and HHs (up to 80% of the total national economic losses). For instance, the survey carried out in Georgia showed that about 70% of the average weather related annual losses (the survey period of 1995-2004) account for agriculture (Arabidze, M, et al, 2006). At the same time, the percentage of prevented losses in this sector is substantially lower than in the other sectors.

Using the assumption, that up to 70% of all average annual losses could be caused by the damages to the agricultural sector and the level of total (direct and indirect losses) assesses through sector-specific method (USD 39.6 million), we can estimate average annual economic losses for agriculture in Kyrgyzstan in the amount of USD 27.7 million (or KGS1,1 billion).

Based on the value of the changes in the level of the potential preventable losses (0.015) from the impact of hydrometeorological hazards as determined by the experts (see Table 4.3), and applying equation (2), the estimates are as follows: Еl = USD27.7 million *0.015 = USD0.42 million (or KGS16.6 million).

However, this estimate is based on conservative approach and incomplete data on losses in agrarian sector, and it does not precisely identify all risks and impacts of weather in agrarian sector24.

In Kyrgyzstan flash appeal launched in December 2008 (UNOCHA, 2008), damage inflicted on agricultural sector as a result of HHs and their consequences (spring frosts and lack of precipitation resulted in severe drought, hail storms and locust infestation) was estimated at KGS2.3 billion or USD65 million. But this figure also does not include indirect damage or such secondary effects as ecological harm, epidemics, deteriorated living conditions, or lost soil fertility.

Based on the above data, conservative estimate of annual incremental effect of improved hydrometeorological information and forecasts in agriculture could be in the range of USD0.4-1.0 million (KGS16-36 million).

4.3.3. SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS OF NMHS’S MODERNIZATION ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Assessment of the economic benefits from improved weather service delivery to Kyrgyzstan economy and population as a result of NMHS modernization used three methods: “meteorological risk assessment”, “method of sector-specific assessment”, “benchmarking approach”. Lack of regular records of economic losses/damage (both in physical and value terms) caused by the complete spectrum of hydrometeorological phenomena was the main challenge in the economic assessment.

All assessments indicated that significant economic benefits in Kyrgyzstan can be realized from the use of improved hydrometeorological information and services. The investments in the NMHS modernization would yield significant benefits, with relatively high potential returns on investments.

The results of benchmarking assessment showed that the total average annual amount of direct damage, associated with hydrometeorological hazards, was not less than USD25 million (1.0% of the average annual GDP in 2000-2007).

Economic assessments of the impact of meteorological risks of major weather hazards on the national economy were performed on the basis of available information on the average annual recurrence and damage per event (for mudflows, floods, avalanches, rainstorms, hailing, windstorms, snowfalls, droughts and frosts). The resulting average annual weather-related economic damage was estimated to be KGS1,100 million, or USD27.3 million (1.1% of the average annual GDP in 2000-2007).

According to the sector-specific assessment using results of meteorological risk assessment (frosts and drought effects, in particular) and estimates of potential indirect losses, average annual economic losses from EHHs and HHs were evaluated in KGS1,580 million, or USD39.6 million (1.5% of GDP).

Potential annual economic benefits from the implementation of the proposed Modernization Program range from USD2.9 million (“benchmarking” assessment) to USD3.8 million (upper bound of “sector-specific” assessment) per year. Assuming that this annual economic effect is sustainable; within 7 years of implementation, the total benefits of Program implementation will equal from USD21 million to USD27 million. Economic efficacy of investments in Program implementation will vary from 244% to 318%, respectively, or, in other words, each dollar spent on Kyrgyzhydromet modernization may yield at least USD2.4-3.2 of revenues as a result of avoided damage.

Sector-specific assessments conducted for selected economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management, and electricity production, which together produce about 3/4 of the GDP generated by key weather-dependant economic activities of Kyrgyz economy), based on experts’ data and assumptions, showed that aggregated annual benefits for those segments of the economy totally could be in the interval of USD0.61.2 million.

24 According to World Bank Study on drought management and mitigation assessment for Central Asia and the Caucasus (World Bank, 2005), losses due to drought of 2000-2001 in Georgia cumulated to USD350 million (6% of total GDP, and 25.5% of GDP in agriculture). In Tajikistan those losses were assessed at the level of USD100 million (4.8% of total GDP, and 16.8% of GDP in agriculture). Using Tajikistan’s data on damages in agrarian sector as a benchmark, induced annual losses only from severe drought in Kyrgyz agriculture could exceed USD60 million (in 2006 prices).

61

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Cost-benefit analysis, using data on average annual losses obtained by sector-specific assessments, also supported the economic feasibility of Program implementation. The cost-benefit ratio was 2.1, and discounted payback period was estimated as 4.4 years.

When analyzing results obtained by these methods, one should take into account that these methods allow estimating not only direct benefits (benchmarking method) largely expressed as reduced losses from hydrometeorological hazards (direct economic losses), but also the total benefits (sector-specific-assessments) relating to both direct and indirect losses and that the approach gave a lower-bound estimate of all indicators.

These estimates do not take into account incremental socio-economic benefits associated with better performance by the household sector. Therefore, the obtained value may be considered a “lower bound”: actual economic benefits may be much larger.

In the absence of systematic registration of economic losses suffered by the Kyrgyz economy and population from the entire range of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena, it would be desirable: • To intensify efforts to develop and improve sector-specific methodologies for calculating economic benefits from (economic efficiency of) the use of hydrometeorological information and systematization of collected data on economic losses both from specific weather hazards across the national economy (‘natural’ integration of losses) and on a sector-specific basis (‘sectoral’ integration of losses through the summation of sector-specific losses caused by all types of HH); • To elaborate basic principles and mechanisms of interaction with entities in major weather-dependent sectors in order to develop and improve the range of standard and specialized hydrometeorological products and services promoting, and there after grounding on the estimates of weather hazards related damage (losses), potentially preventable due to the use of the improved hydrometeorological information in specific sectors; and • To conduct expert assessments of NMHS modernization efficacy for specific regions and the most significant weatherdependent sectors in the regions, taking into account the country’s diversity of regional climatic and economic conditions.

62

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

CHAPTER 5. HOW TO IMPROVE WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICE DELIVERY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 5.1. POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT (MODERNIZATION PROPOSAL) The preceding review of observational networks and other hydrometeorological infrastructure (telecommunication systems, facilities for forecasting weather conditions on the territory of the country, systems for warning of hazardous weather events) has shown that the current conditions of Kyrgyzhydromet do not meet modern requirements. Due to this the efficacy of the services provided to the Government, sectors of the economy and economic entities, as well as the ability to fulfill international and regional obligations including those under the WMO Global Observing System, has been and continues to decline.

A mechanism to properly identify user needs and find adequate ways to meet them is not established. There are no regular user-focused activities encouraging stakeholders to utilize weather, agrometeorological and hydrological forecasts, and only a standard set of information products is available. The quality of services delivered to national and regional users is not satisfactory; neither the Kyrgyzhydromet Central Office nor the Regional Centers for Hydrometeorology (RCHMs) have the technologies required to produce information and information products and to communicate them from Kyrgyzhydromet to users.

Kyrgyzhydromet has done very little to assess climate variability in recent decades. The only reference information on the country’s climate is provided to the Ministry for Nature Protection on request. The assessment of Kyrgyzstan’s contemporary climate, in the context of broad-scale international efforts in the field of climate change study and adaptation to the changing climate, should be an integral part of Kyrgyzhydromet activities since Kyrgyzhydromet is the only Government institution that holds an archive of long-term climate information.

The number and quality of measurements performed by most of the stations of the surface meteorological network is decreasing steadily as instruments fail. All measuring instruments, equipment and communication facilities have been in operation for a long time. They have exhausted their nominal service life, have deteriorated and are obsolete.

The condition of the hydrological network is unsatisfactory (measuring instruments, support equipment, communication and power supply facilities have exhausted their service life and are obsolete) and as a result the quality of runoff forecasts is poor.

There is no adequate communication between stations and measuring sites of the observational networks (meteorological and hydrological) and Data Collection Center of Kyrgyzhydromet. The communication facilities and information technology infrastructure have become obsolete and are not capable of transmitting and receiving the large amounts of information needed to develop advanced information products.

Funds allocated from the Kyrgyzhydromet budget for the operation of observational networks are not adequate to cover the need of stations and measuring sites. Meteorological maintenance of measuring instruments is not provided. Capabilities to prepare forecasts and develop information products do not comply with modern standards needed to provide adequate hydrometeorological services to state authorities, the economy and public.

The key objective of the Kyrgyzhydromet modernization is to reduce the risk to life and damage to the economy caused by weather and climate-related events and to fulfill regional and international obligations. The assessment of water resources within the region is critical. This requires improving the interaction and cooperation between Kyrgyzhydromet and the users of hydrometeorological information and information products. It also requires strengthening the technical and technological basis of Kyrgyzhydromet, and retaining its capabilities by sustaining its institutions, staff and financial support.

Recommendations on strengthening and technical upgrading of Kyrgyzhydromet are based on the evaluation of its current status made by a team of international experts in consultation with Kyrgyzhydromet management. It also takes into consideration the “Program of development of Kyrgyzhydromet operating under the Ministry of Emergencies for the period of 2008-2010” (hereinafter the Program), which focused on the partial refurbishment of the hydrometeorological monitoring system. The present plan is more comprehensive focusing on the needed steps to modernize the entire hydrometeorological service to meet its obligations to reduce the risk to life and damage to the economy from hydrometeorological events.

Performance indicators of the proposed modernization project include maintenance of the NMHS capacity through improving its institutional, staff and financial sustainability; transition to an improved model of operations; provision of users with reliable hydrometeorological data and forecasts with the overall aim of assisting them in making informed decisions on water management at the national and regional levels; at least a 10-fold increase in the amount of meteorological data and products obtained from various sources; improved quality and reliability of measured meteorological and hydrological parameters (river flow/runoff); ensuring operational collection of observational data from 90% of Kyrgyzhydromet stations and observation sites.

The lack of adequate efforts to ensure institutional and financial sustainability of the NMHS (including the results achieved under the pervious international assistance programs), as well as fundamental changes in the cooperation between the NMHS as the main producer/provider of hydrometeorological data and information products, and major users of such information (ministries

63

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

and agencies responsible for water management, environmental protection and agriculture, power sector, emergency situations, transport, RBMO and ICCW), on the one hand, bears significant risks to future investments in Kyrgyzhydromet infrastructure, and, on the other hand, would in the near future undermine the NMHS capacity. This, in turn will lead to lower quality of produced information and forecasts (at least, by 10-15% for 3-5 years), reduced scope of observations at stations and gauges, downsizing of the observational network, significant difficulties in the fulfillment of international and regional obligations, loss of investments and achievements of assistance projects, and increasing economic losses both in terms of water management efficiency, and damage caused by extreme and hazardous meteorological events.

Obviously, it is impossible to ensure sustainable infrastructure investments without strengthening the institutional, staff and financial capacity of the NMHS. To facilitate the transition to a new model of operations, a set of capacity-building activities need to be implemented, including the improvement of special-purpose hydrometeorological services provided to users, establishing incentives for NMHS specialists, staff training, and cooperation with international and national hydrometeorological institutions.

The combination of relevant activities, including the strengthening of the NMHS technological base, will hopefully enable to address the creation of a new sustainable model of Kyrgyzhydromet operations.

In is also required to improve the methods of producing both general forecasts for public authorities and communities, and special-purpose forecasts for special user categories; establish conditions of cooperation between HMC and regional administrations with clearly specified list of and requirements to NMHS products to meet the needs of regional administrations, agricultural and industrial enterprises, and arrangements for NMHS (HMC) support, including the financing of operational costs.

With the relevant regulatory and legal framework in place, the opportunities to enhance the costeffectiveness of services provided by Kyrgyzhydromet to economic entities could be used as an argument in discussions on the appropriate level of budget financing and cost of services sufficient both to support operational and production activities, and implement a reinvestment program.

5.1.1. RECOMMENDATIONS ON STRENGTHENING AND TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF KYRGYZHYDROMET Three options for the modernization were considered. The first is the most comprehensive providing a comprehensive observing network and new service capabilities. The second is the lowest cost option aimed to at stabilizing the current service and avoiding further deterioration. The third achieves most of the first option but with less technology. The costs are summarized in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1 Modernization Options

Option

Cost

1.

Comprehensive modernization of observing system and services

USD12.84

2.

Low cost option designed to prevent further deterioration of the service

USD3.55

3.

Similar to option one but with less technology

USD8.29

Annex 3 lists the details and costs of the Kyrgyzhydromet modernization for each of the three options.

A large-scale technical and institution modernization of Kyrgyzhydromet is proposed to deliver more accurate and longer lead time forecasts and improved staff skills. Improved communication, data collection and presentation technologies will provide a better hydrometeorological service delivery system, will make it possible to: • Achieve the key objective of modernization, i.e. reduce the risk to life and damage to the economy caused by weather and climate-related events and disasters; • Fulfill regional and international obligations of Kyrgyzstan; • Fill the gap between increasing demands of the Government for hydrometeorological information and capabilities of Kyrgyzhydromet to deliver the required information and information products; • Achieve a “satisfactory” level of Kyrgyzhydromet in terms of technology (compared with the general technological level of NMHSs of WMO Member States).

The main disadvantage of this option is the high risk to the investments into Kyrgyzhydromet since significant operational costs are required to maintain a high technological level of its operation. These operational costs will need to be partially covered by the Government and depending on commitments to the Kyrgyzhydromet may put the external investments at risk if equipment and services are not maintained adequately.

64

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

An alternative risk reduction strategy is Option 3, which is a lower cost, high impact solution that retains most of the elements of Option 1, but decreases the extent of the observing network and degree of introduction of automatic devices. It was agreed with Kyrgyzhydromet that the third option is the basic option proposed for modernization. Table 5.2 presents the main components and activities for Option 3.

The following describes the proposed modernization elements for both Option 1 and Option 3. The elements that differ are clearly identified.

Table 5.2 Basic Modernization Option

Main components A. Technical design

B. Improve the system of hydrometeorological monitoring to provide timely warnings of extreme and hazardous weather events and to manage water resources

C. Institutional strengthening and capacity building

Sub-components and activities Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system B1. Technical upgrading of the observational network

Estimates cost (USD 1000) 500 4 385

Restoration and technical upgrading of the meteorological observational network Resume temperature-wind atmosphere sounding

1 175

Renew key observation sites of the hydrological network, and equipping the operating posts with the required additional instruments

1 655

360

Restore snow avalanche observation network

755

Establish quality control of hydrometeorological data and products

440

B2. Strengthen the IT base of Kyrgyzhydromet

2 380

Upgrading of data collection and communication system

300

Improvement of data processing, adjusting numerical weather forecast and runoff modeling for Kyrgyzstan Creation of data base management system and archives, data digitizing, storage, printing and dissemination of information products

830

Provide software and hardware for recognition of information on paper and storage of digitalized paper records

500

C1. Enhance service delivery C2. Staff training and professional upgrading

750

625 400

LARGE SCALE PROGRAMS OF ACTIONS ON STRENGTHENING AND TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF KYRGYZHYDROMET (OPTION 1 AND 3) There are three main activities or components in all modernization programs which include (i) Technical Design of the Modernized System; (ii) Improvement of the System of Hydrometeorological Monitoring to Provide Timely Warnings of Extreme and Hazardous Weather Events and to Manage Water Resources and (iii) Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building of Kyrgyzhydromet.

COMPONENT A. TECHNICAL DESIGN OF THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL MONITORING AND TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEM The level of details provided in the modernization options proposed below is comparable with the level of prefeasibility study.

More detailed work on the technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system is needed which ideally should be based on the overall concept of the Kyrgyzhydromet development. Technical solutions should be based on the comprehensive review of Kyrgyzhydromet and the existing international experience gained in establishing such systems, which are adapted to the particular circumstances and capabilities of each country in order to ensure a sustainable solution. Technical

65

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

specifications and main tender documents for procurement are expected to be developed under this component. It is important to ensure compatibility of all technical devises and system. This component includes: • Developing the concept of Kyrgyzhydromet development • Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system • Development of technical specifications and main tender documents COMPONENT B. IMPROVE THE SYSTEM OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL MONITORING TO PROVIDE TIMELY WARNINGS OF EXTREME DISASTERS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS AND TO MANAGE WATER RESOURCES Improving the system of hydrometeorological monitoring will enable the NMHS to provide timely warnings to agencies responsible for reducing and preventing damage to the economy and population caused by natural weather events. Mitigation of their consequences and better emergency preparedness is an important component of the modernization program. Improvement of the hydrological observing and forecasting systems is also essential for efficient national water resources management and to fulfill Kyrgyzstan’s obligations under international agreements. Within this component the following is proposed: B1. TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF THE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK The objective of this component is to restore the meteorological network and key observational sites of the hydrological and avalanche networks. This includes reliable temperature-wind sounding of the atmosphere and providing efficient and timely transmission of observational data. Observations form the basis of daily and long range forecasts for the country and for specific regions and areas. They are also used to issue storm warnings and alerts of extreme and hazardous weather in order to take timely measures across all sectors of society and the economy. This component includes: RESTORATION AND TECHNICAL UPGRADE OF THE METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK

• Ensure that all operational stations of the surface meteorological network are equipped with automated weather stations (AWS) including instruments for measuring basic meteorological parameters, AWS control systems, data accumulation and communication tools and lightning protection systems. The first priority is to equip all meteorological stations included into the RA-II Regional Reference Network [Option 3 – partial equipment only]; • Provide all hydrometeorological stations with standalone power supplies for technological equipment. Some stations located in high mounting regions should also have power supplies for staff household needs; • Reequip the surface meteorological network with radio communication facilities. Establish 3 clustered radio stations to provide reliable data collection from the observational network; • Introduce at the surface meteorological network of up to 10 autonomous automated weather stations (A-AWS). A-AWS should be primarily installed in highmounting hard-to-access regions, where previously closed stations were located and where safety of equipment can be ensured [Option 1 only]; • Modernize communication equipment and operator’s software at 7 earlier installed AWS; • Perform parallel observations with newly installed and standard measuring instruments to retain homogeneity of climate observation series [Option 1 only]; • Establish a rotating pool (20% of meteorological and hydrological sensors and controllers) and spare parts stock to ensure reliable and uninterrupted operations of installed AWS for at least 8 years [Option 3 – limited supply]; • Supply crosscountry vehicles (at least 8 vehicles) to support operation of the observational network primarily in highmounting regions and individual transport vehicles to support agrometeorological observations; • Refurbish and rehabilitate office and residential buildings at meteorological stations proposed for upgrading [Option 1 only].

RENEW TEMPERATUREWIND SOUNDING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER KYRGYZSTAN

Renew temperature–wind sounding of the atmosphere at the aerological station in Bishkek by putting a modern upper air radar, and a hydrogen generator, into operation. This should be done because atmospheric temperature-wind sounding data have a considerable effect on the quality of avalanche storm warnings and weather forecasts. They are also a key component of regional meteorological models. In the future it is necessary to consider renewing atmospheric temperature-wind sounding at 1-2 additional aerological stations previously closed. Installation of relatively expensive aerological radar is recommended primarily because of the existing Kyrgyzhydromet experience in such temperature–wind sounding methods, and the comparatively low cost of one-time sounding.

66

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

RENEW KEY OBSERVATION SITES OF THE HYDROLOGICAL NETWORK, AND EQUIP OPERATING POSTS WITH ADDITIONAL INSTRUMENTS AND DEVICES

This subcomponent aims to maintain the operating capacity of the existing hydrological network, to strengthen the subsystem of occasional observations, and to expand the Kyrgyzhydromet capacity to perform surface water pollution monitoring. It will also restore and rehabilitate facilities. Activities include.

• Equip priority hydrological posts of Kyrgyzhydromet with the required additional measuring instruments and communication facilities ensuring adequate quality of flood and flooding forecasts and warnings, and management of national water resources; • Introduce 14 modern automated hydrological stations for water level and discharge measurements at hydrological posts where security and power supply of equipment can be provided [Option 3 – 6 stations]; • Introduce 4 mobile hydrological laboratories for water discharge and chemical composition measurements [Option 3 – 2 stations]; • Provide the hydrochemical laboratory at Osh RCHM with equipment to perform studies of water hydrochemical parameters at transboundary rivers [Option 1 only]; • Provide 5 hydrological stations with sets of equipment to measure hydrochemical water parameters within the coverage area for the purposes of surface water pollution control [Option 1 only]; • Resume regular hydrological and hydrochemical observations at Lake Issyk-Kul [Option 1 only]; • Restore and rehabilitate hydrological facilities at posts proposed for upgrading [Option 1 only].

RESTORE THE SNOW AVALANCHE OBSERVATION NETWORK

• Install at least 5 automatic snow-measuring systems (including snow depth meters) in areas of increased risk of avalanching.

• Ensure regular snow-measuring routes by providing snow-measuring stations with instruments and equipment including snowmobiles, snow survey rods, communication facilities, etc.

• Resume regular airborne snow surveys along 5 snow-measuring routes ESTABLISH QUALITY CONTROL OF HYDROMET DATA AND PRODUCTS

Establish quality control of hydrometeorological data to improve the quality of data provided to users from the observational network. This includes the following: • Install and introduce a stationary system to test instruments measuring atmospheric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, meteorological visibility and cloud base height; • Install 2 mobile testing-repair laboratories for on-site calibration of measuring instruments; • Define financing arrangements and organizational procedures for using WMO Regional Centers to perform calibration of reference measuring instruments [Option 1 only]; • Renew a repair team for routine maintenance of radio communication and energy supply facilities.

CONSIDER CREATING PUBLIC–PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS

As an alternative to owning and operating the entire observing network, it is suggested that use of public-private partnerships to fill the observing network gaps should be explored.

The past decade has seen a rapid transformation of societies’ access to all kinds of information through advances in telecommunications and computing infrastructure. The expansion of mobile communication technology in developing countries has revolutionized access to information and provides new opportunities to develop and enhance weather and climate observing networks.

The traditional model of government funded NMHSs owning and maintaining meteorological observing networks has not been sustainable in many places where reduced budgets and a lack of skilled labor have resulted in vastly reduced capacity and capability to observe the environment. While government has a national and international responsibility to provide meteorological services and to exchange data freely and openly, new ways of meeting these obligations are being sought. Where government investment in meteorological services is likely to remain a small part of overall spending, innovative partnerships between the government and private sector may be a solution, without relieving the government of its overall responsibility. National consortia involving a wide group of stakeholders with mutual interests in weather and climate information can collectively fund, maintain and utilize observing networks.

For example, for a small incremental cost, mobile phone cell towers can be equipped with automated weather stations to provide weather data for the whole community. These would provide meteorological services with much needed data to fill data gaps in the climate networks, enabling them to provide climate information to their partners. At the same time, innovative uses of

67

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

these data can be developed by both public and private institutions with emphasis on the development of value-added services for specific sector needs rather than focusing on data delivery.

A consortium of public and private interests could be used to sustain an observing network in Kyrgyz Republic where there is a well developed mobile phone system, the need by many sectors for meteorological and hydrological observations, difficulty in maintaining observing networks and difficulty in retaining qualified technical staff.

B2. STRENGTHEN THE BASE OF KYRGYZHYDROMET This sub-component aims to establish a modern software-hardware environment, which provides efficient and timely collection of data from the observational network and receives and processes information products from leading international meteorological centers. This in turn will enable better quality and longer lead time of storm warnings and forecasts and as result improve the quality of hydrometeorological services delivered to authorities, Ministry of Emergencies, Ministry of Agriculture, water management, processing industry and other users. Within this component, data storage for paper records is planned. This includes providing reliable temperature-humidity conditions, equipment to read and scan information, disk storage servers, virtual tape servers with tape drives and the required disk space.

TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA RECEIVING SYSTEMS

• Modernize capabilities for receiving of meteorological information and products in Kyrgyzhydromet Communication Center to be able to receive up to 0.5 Gb per day; • Introduce modern technologies for receiving and visualizing information centrally and arrange for adequate data collection and dissemination between the Center and the RCHMs. • Supply computer facilities and facilities to produce information products on paper to support the delivery of hydrometeorological information to users [Option 3 – limited investment].

MODERN COMPUTER TECHNOLOGIES FOR PROCESSING, FORECASTING AND PRESENTATION OF INFORMATION

Introduce modern computer technologies will allow the quality of output forecasting products to be improved. It is also proposed to procure a software/license package for 4 workstations to facilitate the work of specialists in preparing meteorological, agrometeorological and hydrological forecasts. This will enable forecasters to adapt and implement numerical regional and mesoscale weather forecasting models primarily to generate precipitation forecasts, and models for runoff calculations [Option 3 – limited investment].

DEVELOP A DATABASE ON IMPACTS OF EXTREME AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS

This requires a continuous dialog and input from weather sensitive sectors and the public.

RESCUE THE NATIONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA FUND AND ESTABLISH AN AUTOMATED DATA ARCHIVE IN THE HMC AND RCMC

• Organize paper record holdings in storage racks, lamplight and required temperaturehumidity conditions [Option 3 – limited investment] ; • An appropriate program should be developed and human resources recruited to digitize all data and transfer them to reliable media [Option 3 – limited investment]; • The storage system should include at least a medium size disk array and storage server, which will make it possible to manage this array and retrieve and download the required information[Option 3 – limited investment] ; • Information management and indexing software should also be obtained [Option 3 – limited investment].

COMPONENT C. INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING AND CAPACITY BUILDING C1. ENHANCE SERVICE DELIVERY In the past few years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has highlighted the importance of service delivery and the need for NMHSs to be more customer or user focused to ensure that their products are used optimally for social and economic benefit.

Traditionally, NMHSs dealt with customers with a significant amount of training in meteorology, such as aviation or marine services. Today, however, more sectors of the economy are weather and climate sensitive resulting in a new client base demand-

68

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

ing new products. However, since these users often have little knowledge and understanding of the specifics of weather, water and climate in their decisions, there is a need for a more collaborative approach to service delivery that involves both the provider and the user of the services. Unless this active engagement occurs, the users are often unable to utilize meteorological information effectively and though important, it is often discounted as factor in decision making.

Any technical refurbishment and enhancement of the Kyrgyz NMHS must be accompanied by investment in service delivery that meets the ever changing needs of society and the economy. Ultimately the value of the NMHS will be measured in terms of the behavior of users and the outcomes of their decisions. This means strengthening the capacity of the NMHS to deliver quantifiable social and economic benefits from their core activities.

Key elements include: • The capacity to understand and interact effectively with stakeholders using staff trained appropriately • Continuous engagement of stakeholders through frequent meetings and workshops to understand the changing needs of users and current performance of Kyrgyzhydromet [Option 3 – limited investment] • Establishing a customer advisory body, which includes representatives of all stakeholders [Option 3 – limited investment] • Easily accessible products through the web and other media [Option 3 – limited investment] • Well defined service agreements between the Kyrgyzhydromet and each customer • Special attention to key user groups IMPROVE SERVICE DELIVERY TO MINISTRY OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS It is particularly important to satisfy the requirements of the parent ministry of a NMHS. This is usually the most difficult task because the Ministry has two competing roles, that of customer and owner. These functions need to be kept as distinct as possible with different people taking responsibility for each.

As a customer, the Ministry would benefit from the integration of meteorological products into its decision systems. This would take full advantage of the planned technical modernization and could be used to showcase the capability of the NMHS. Consideration should also be given to how the Ministry has to respond to emergencies anywhere in the country and how operational staff would benefit from timely and specific weather information. In particular, consider the creation of “mobile meteorological teams” located in several regions ready to respond alongside emergency response personnel.

As the owner of the NMHS, the Ministry should understand the scope of the NMHS mission and its capacity to assist the Government and economy in many different ways. Involving other ministries in an interagency advisory body that helps the owner govern the NMHS is one way to ensure that the NMHS is responsive to other ministries, while remaining a primary asset of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. This has the potential to provide benefit to owner as well as the NMHS by creating a stronger crossgovernmental partnership [Option 3 – limited investment].

MEDIA The media are an important sector through which a NMHS communicates its products and services to the public. Since the media are usually at the leading edge of public information services collaboration with this sector can be used to develop visualization tools and a platform for the public dissemination of forecasts.

In general the cost of this effort is borne by the media, which can recover the investment through their own revenue streams, either through government appropriation or advertising income.

The media is also the outlet for information about the NMHS and as such it is an important means of securing public visibility.

A proactive approach to the media is essential in order to produce a favorable view of a NMHS. A reactive approach usually means that the NMHS is defending itself against public criticism for a failed forecast, which is inevitable, without the benefit of a sympathetic public.

CREATE A NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE WITHIN THE NMHS A particularly important enhancement of the mission of any NMHS is the addition of a dedicated climate service, which should be viewed as an equal to the traditional weather forecasting and hydrological service missions. A National Climate Service (NCS) transforms the traditional climatological role of a NMHS, which focuses on the collection and mapping of meteorological data to a full useroriented service, which can be provided as an integral part of the services delivered by the NMHS. Climate information is needed for planning and construction of buildings and facilities, and for the assessment of the impact of climate variations and change on the Kyrgyz economy and to provide a sound scientific basis for adaptation.

Climate change risk reduction is a priority for development and therefore particularly important in developing and transitional economies. This requires adequate monitoring and dissemination programs at the national level to assess risks, and the institutional capacity to develop the national capability to transform climate data, which will enable the government to include climate information in economic development programs.

69

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

In general, the NCS function of the NMHS should include key users, who have responsibility for the application of climate information within their specific sector. This will help to establish the appropriate roles and responsibilities of the NMHS versus other organizations that have responsibility for climate change policy, such as the State Agency on Environmental Protection and Forestry, which has responsibility for UN Framework Convention on Climate Change related activities. As in other countries, climate change policy-makers should rely on the NMHS for the provision of climate data and information relevant to their decisions.

The NCS would have primary responsibility for services to climate-sensitive sectors, although both weather and climate information are required by most. These sectors include development, finance, energy, water resource management, agriculture, urban planning and health, amongst others. Many of these sectors overlap and interact. For example, public health includes food security, access to clean water and sanitation – each dependent on the climate and weather extremes.

Managing the interactions between stakeholders is the responsibility of all of the relevant sectors. Various mechanisms exist to encourage inter sector cooperation across all of civil society, both public and private.

STRENGTHEN KYRGYZHYDROMET REGULATIONS The scientificmethodological basis of Kyrgyzhydromet operation should be brought into compliance with WMO manuals and guidelines using the experience of CIS Hydrometeorological Services; • Receive and adapt CIS and WMO current guidance documents in the field of making observations and processing storage and delivery of information, o Continue to bring into force guidance documents of Kyrgyzhydromet in the field of making observations and processing, storage and delivery of information taking into account national legislation and practice; o Develop draft guidelines on making observations that would take into account upgrading of observational networks including that of temperature-wind sounding of the atmosphere [Option 1 only].

IMPROVE COMMERCIAL SERVICES In addition to their role as a public service provider, NMHSs are often encouraged to recover costs or provide a return on investment to their “owner”. While this is an attractive way to provide additional revenue for the NMHS, it needs to be managed carefully to ensure that the public mission is achieved as a public good and that the commercial services are offered competitively.

A number of different approaches to commercial services exist, including: • A Government-owned (Single shareholder) private company that delivers contracted services to the government; • A Government meteorological service, which spinsoff and owns a separate entity to provide competitive commercial services. All profits from the commercial service can be reinvested in the commercial service or returned to the shareholder (the government). Separation of the commercial and government entity prevents crosssubsidies from the public sector to the commercial venture; • A Government meteorological service that provides a public service for some customers (with the costs borne by the service for data that are considered essential based on WMO resolution 40). Users may be required to pay for additional data. This is the more common arrangement with no institutional distinction between the commercial and non-commercial activities; • A Government meteorological service that provides all of its data and information as a public service.

Whichever approach, if any, is chosen, it is important that the government adheres to the international policy (WMO Resolution 40) on the free and unrestricted international exchange of meteorological and related data and products, which are required to describe and forecast accurately weather and climate, and support WMO Programs.

The initial aim is to: • Develop an appropriate business model for the delivery of commercial weather, climate and hydrological services in Kyrgyzstan in response to the needs of the commercial sector and governmental contracting requirements.

C2. IMPROVE STAFF TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADES A modern NMHS needs highly skilled employees, who refresh and upgrade their capabilities to meet the ever changing requirements of the service. External training programs for the staff should focus on as few training centers as possible so that the training is consistent and the skills readily shared across the organization.

While the basic meteorological and hydrological products will not change dramatically, new technical and service related expertise will be needed. This will require an overall upgrading of skills and responsibilities and a long term plan for staffing, which should be defined in the context of the technical refurbishment and service delivery strategy . This should be reviewed in the context of other modernization efforts currently underway.

Areas requiring enhancement: • Project management • Technical skills to support observing networks • Enhanced skills in weather forecasting using numerical methods

70

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

• Knowledge of social, environmental, and economic sectors sufficient to provide consulting services to their users • Enhanced skill in climate prediction using numerical methods • Greater computer literacy for all staff • Public education and outreach • IT management skills The current approach is, of necessity, piecemeal and results in varying capabilities depending on where the training was conducted making it difficult for two members of staff to apply the same methods to a common task.

Language is also an issue and wherever possible courses should be conducted in Russian. Senior scientific staff, likely to attend international working meetings of the WMO or other organizations, would benefit from English language courses since these meetings do not generally include interpretation. This would enable Kyrgyz staff to play a more active role in the international community and take advantage of the training capacity available in China and elsewhere.

On-going training is also a means of retaining junior staff longer and would compensate partially for relatively low pay grades.

A well-defined continuous training program would provide more career opportunities and encourage staff to remain longer in the service while they acquire these new skills.

As a first step, arrangements should be made for practical training of personnel at specialized hydrometeorological training institutions and NMHSs in foreign countries and CIS. The required activities include: • training courses for the observational staff of hydrometeorological stations and sites • transfer of experience and participation of specialists in training sessions dedicated to the development and implementation of new forecasting techniques, • use of satellite information in weather forecasting and analysis, • utilization of hydrometeorological devices and facilities, • more efficient work with climatic data In view of expected significant changes in Kyrgyzhydromet associated with the introduction of modern technologies, and the need for professional upgrading of NMHS staff, this project component seems highly important for the achievement of project objectives, and provides for the implementation of the following activities: • Establish a center for professional upgrading and retraining of observational unit staff; to this end, provide the center with appropriate technical aids including equipment and training materials [Option 1 only]; • Improve the level of qualification and professional skills of the NMHS personnel to enable the staff to operate newly introduced measurement devices and information technologies • Provide training of CHM managers and HMC specialists in marketing of hydrometeorological services.

INCREASE STAFF CAPACITY FOR INSTITUTION REFORM Staffing capacity is a major limitation in effecting change within the NMHS. Understaffing in the Bishkek headquarters means that there is very little flexibility to engage in new activities when most, if not all, of the current workload is critical to the NMHS mission. The NMHS staff is very dedicated and enthusiastic, which suggests that, if capacity can be increased, there will be the needed interest and desire to support institution reform.

Enabling the NMHS personnel to participate and lead the modernization project will require more people to increase the capacity of the NMHS to cope with its current mission and to plan for its future. An NMHS team should take the lead in all actions associated with the project. This team should include both senior and junior members of the staff, especially since the latter will inherit the new working methods and technical capabilities, which in practice will mean the creation of one or two new technical positions in headquarters.

Possibly, the existing close cooperation between the Kyrgyz University Meteorological Department and the NMHS could be exploited here.

One potential impediment to the successful implementation of the modernization strategy is the narrow vision of the staff based on their long term resignation to the current working conditions. Unless otherwise encouraged, it is likely that they will focus on an incremental approach to the modernization emphasizing the reestablishment of observing networks and reinforcing staff within the current structure. On its own this will not create the desired changes in service delivery. Experience suggests that observing how other, similar sized, organizations deliver modern NMHS products and services will be helpful in changing this mindset.

This will help establish a clearer vision of the modernization program. Roshydromet and CMA are in the process of modernizing their institutions so would be good indicators of what is possible. The smaller European institutions are of similar scale to the Kyrgyz NMHS. This can be accomplished as an intrinsic part of the modernization program.

THE SECOND OPTION – LOW BUDGET (MINIMUM OPTION) Cost: USD3.55M The second option provides for the implementation of a limited list of actions aimed to retain the achieved capacity of Kyrgy-

71

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

zhydromet by ensuring its staff and financial sustainability and strengthening cooperation with users. The advantage of this option is that the increase in operational costs of Kyrgyzhydromet is relatively small compared with the first option. Nevertheless it is imperative that technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system be implemented on the basis of the concept of the Kyrgyzhydromet development.

Under this option it will be possible to improve the accuracy of 1-3-day forecasts by 3-5%, to bring the quality of data obtained from the surface meteorological network into compliance with WMO recommendations, to achieve acceptable performance in terms of time of delivery of observation data to operationalforecasting divisions within Kyrgyzhydromet and strengthen service delivery to users. It should be noted that this low budget option will not allow Kyrgyzhydromet to achieve a “satisfactory” technological level, it will make possible just to retain the current level for 3-6 years. After that considerable investments will be required to the technological component and particularly to the institutional component of Kyrgyzhydromet.

IMPROVE THE SYSTEM OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL MONITORING TO PROVIDE TIMELY WARNINGS OF EXTREME AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS • Ensure that all operational stations of the surface meteorological network are equipped with standard sets of equipment including instruments for measuring basic meteorological parameters (atmospheric pressure, wind direction and speed, air temperature and humidity, atmospheric precipitation and soil temperature).

• Equip all hydrometeorological stations with standalone devices of power supply to communication equipment. Some stations located in high mounting regions should have power supply for staff household needs.

• Reequip stations of the surface meteorological network with radio communication facilities and antennafeeder devices.

Establish the required number of clustered radio stations to provide reliable collection of data from the observational network.

• Modernize communication equipment, implement operating rules necessary to extend the lifetime of 7 AMS, install these AMS in high-mounting hard-to-access regions where stations were closed and where safety of equipment can be ensured.

• Supply cross-country vehicles (at least 8 vehicles) to support operation of the observational network primarily in highmounting regions and individual transport vehicles to support agrometeorological observations.

• Introduce 2 mobile hydrological laboratories to measure water discharge and chemical composition.

• Establish regular snow survey routes by supplying instruments and equipment (including transport vehicles, snow survey rods, communication facilities etc.) to snow-measuring stations.

• Install a stationary testing complex to test instruments measuring atmospheric pressure, air temperature, relative air humidity, wind speed and direction, meteorological visibility and cloud base height.

• Introduce a multipurpose meteorological communication complex and hydrometeorological information processing and visualization system.

• Rescue of the National hydrometeorological Data Fund by implementing of complexes generating hydrological and meteorological data in the interests of the operational archive in the Hydrometcenter of Kyrgyzhydromet.

INSTITUTIONALLY STRENGTHEN KYRGYZHYDROMET, ENHANCE ITS STAFF AND SUPPORT FINANCIAL STABILITY • Estimate the cost Government-level works.

• Develop a catalog of information products taking into account new technological capabilities of Kyrgyzhydromet and update a price list for hydrometeorological products.

• Draft documents on improvement of a regulatory base for delivery of hydrometeorological services.

• Arrange for strengthening of RCHMs for the benefit of SHMS delivery to regional-level users • Develop a system for cooperation with regional and local authorities to prevent extreme or hazardous weather events including adjusted schemes of cooperation and coordination plans • Continue to bring into force guidance documents of Kyrgyzhydromet in the field of making observations and processing, storage and delivery of information taking into account national legislation and practice.

• Perform a study (survey) and analysis of demands of national and regional authorities, Ministry of Emergencies, Ministry of Agriculture, water management, processing industry and other ministries, agencies and commercial entities for information routine, current and forecasted weather conditions within the country.

• Develop technologies for weather information presentation in mass media.

• Expand informative capacity of the NMHS website • Establish a center for professional upgrading and retraining of observational unit staff; to this end, provide the center with appropriate technical aids including equipment and training materials • Improve the level of qualification and professional skills of the NMHS personnel to enable the staff to operate newly introduced measurement devices and information technologies • Provide training of CHM managers and HMC specialists in marketing of hydrometeorological services

72

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

ASSESSMENT OF OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS When planning the introduction of new equipment, one should realize that operation and maintenance of instruments would require financial and technical support provided on a continuous basis throughout the life cycle of equipment. It is clear therefore that proposed modernization Kyrgyzhydromet will increase the operational costs for all 3 options to ensure efficient operation of observational networks and data collection and processing centers.

Considerable increase is attached to the implementation of twice-a-day temperature-wind atmosphere sounding at the rehabilitated aerological station in Bishkek. Expenditures of twice-a-day temperature-wind sounding, assuming the cost of the balloon equal to USD30 and that of radio sounder – USD70, make up USD75 thousand per year. The cost of technical maintenance of the complex after the end of the warranty period can be in the range of USD5-10 thousand per year including spare parts.

The average cost of spare parts, maintenance and reliable operation of meteorological and hydrological systems, including those installed in remote, hard-to-access regions, hi-tech equipment and transport vehicles after the end of the warranty period is estimated at a level of 10% in the first five years of operation. Therefore to ensure reliable operation of the installed equipment USD257 thousand per year (Option1), USD29 thousand per year (Option 2) and USD107 thousand per year (Option 3) are required, including the cost of recruited staff services.

The cost of communication services – data transmission from 80 measuring stations and gauges and 21 automated meteorological stations and complexes (AMSs and AMCs) (lower-echelone communication ) is estimated at USD25 thousand per year (Option 1); the cost of satellite communication channels will be USD4 thousand per year. Therefore the total cost of lower level communication is estimated at USD29 thousand per year (Option 1), USD4 thousand per year (Option 2) and USD8 thousand per year (Option 3).

Renewal of snow-measuring observations will require considerable costs to resume air-borne snow surveys and restore snowmeasuring routes. The cost of these observations may amount to USD40-50 thousand including the rate of helicopter lease and travel costs of personnel (Option 3). In addition the cost of the working clothes of the staff involved in snow surveys will increase.

The costs of fuel for the vehicles to be supplied, electricity, SPL and calibration devices for hydrometric current meters depend on operating rules established for these instruments, and can amount to USD8 thousand per year.

When estimating operational costs it should also be taken into account that travel expenses related to implementation of routine and repair works and staff training is expected to increase at least two-fold as well as expenses related to expendables (item of expenditure “stationery and administrative expenses, equipment”.

In summary, the preliminary operating and maintenance costs under options of Kyrgyzhydromet modernization and technical upgrading being considered are estimated as follows: Option 1 – about USD463 thousand, Option 2 – USD75 thousand, Option 3 USD205 thousand.

It is expected that the government will be in the position to cover all or most of these costs as a part of its regular public finance (budget) allocations.

5.2. ACTION PLAN AND NEXT STEPS Preliminary results of the study were presented to the government stakeholders in December 2008 at the consultation workshop. Participants of the workshop supported the findings as recorded in the workshop recommendations (Annex 6). It is expected that the Action plan for improvement of weather, climate and hydrological services delivery in Kyrgyzstan elaborated further in this report will be supported by the Government.

Financing of the Action Plan will likely be a combination of governmental funds, concessional financing from international financial institutions (IFIs), and international and bilateral donors’ support. The Action Plan will also be an integral part of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (CAREC DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters.

The CAC DRMI incorporates three focus areas: (i) coordination of disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) financing of disaster losses, reconstruction and recovery, and disaster risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. The initiative would be coordinated by World Bank, the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the CAREC umbrella. The Initiative will build on the existing cooperation that already exists in the region, and will complement and consolidate activities of the IFIs, the EU, the Council of Europe, the UN agencies, regional cooperation institutions, bilateral donors such as the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and others to promote more effective disaster mitigation, preparedness and response. It was agreed by donors and international organizations to convene in November 2009 a regional Central Asia Workshop aimed at improvement of hydrometeorological services and early warning systems. It is hoped that specific approaches towards funding commitments will be made during this workshop.

73

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

BIBLIOGRAPHY AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION REFERENCES Abasbekov, M. 2008. Bishkek-Osh Highway National Directorate (KG Ministry of Transport and Communications). Expert’s Assessment of Sectoral Needs in Hydrometeorological Information and Forecasts. October 30, 2008. Bishkek. Kyrgyz Republic.

Abdygulov, A. 2008. Power Point Presentation at the Consultation Workshop “Improvement of Efficiency of Weather and Climate Service Delivery In Kyrgyz Republic”. Main Operational Department of KG Ministry of Emergency Situations. December, 16. Bishkek. Kyrgyz Republic.

ADB. 2007. Kyrgyz Republic: Flood Emergency Rehabilitation Project. Performance Evaluation Report. Project Number: 32415. Loan Number: 1633. March 2007. Operations Evaluation Department. Asian Development Bank Arabidze, M, J. Dolidze, and M. Bakhsoliani. 2006. “Georgia - Assessment of Economic Efficiency of Hydrometeorological Services. Working paper prepared for Weather/Climate Services pilot study in the countries of Europe and Central Asia.

Bakanov, M. 2008. Current status of Kyrgyzhydromet System and Its Capacity to Forecast Extreme Hazardous Hydrometeorological Events. Power Point Presentation at the Consultation Workshop “Improvement of Efficiency of Weather and Climate Service Delivery In Kyrgyz Republic”. Main Operational Department of KG Ministry of Emergency Situations. December, 16. Bishkek.

Kyrgyz Republic.

Barko, A. 2008. Kyrgyz Sugar Beet Pilot Breeding Station (KR Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Processing Industry): Expert’s Assessment of Sectoral Needs on HydroMeteorological Information and Forecasts. November 25, 2008. Bishkek.

Kyrgyz Republic.

Bishkekteploset. 2008. Ministry of Energy. Expert’s Assessment of Sectoral Needs in HydroMeteorological Information and Forecasts. Bishkek. Kyrgyz Republic.

Butenko, L. 2008a. OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii (KR Ministry of Industry and Energy). Expert’s Responses to Questionnaire on Expert’s Assessment of Economic Benefits in Sector due to NHMS Modernization. Bishkek.

Butenko, L. 2008b. OJSC Elektricheskiye Stantsii (KR Ministry of Industry and Energy). Expert’s Assessment of Sectoral Needs in HydroMeteorological Information and Forecasts. Bishkek. Kyrgyz Republic.

Eletskiy, A. 2008. Plant Cultivation (KR Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Processing Industry). Responses to Questionnaire on Expert’s Assessment of Economic Benefits in Sector due to NHMS Modernization. Bishkek.

Government of the Kyrgyz Republic. 2008. National Energy Program of the Kyrgyz Republic for the period of 2008-2010.

Approved April 24, 2008. N 346IV http://www.government.gov.kg/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=23 Korshunov, A. (2008, July). Findings of Technical Mission to Kyrgyzstan (July 1317, 2008). Report prepared for the World Bank as a part of TA on Improving Weather and Climate Service Delivery in Central Asia.

Kotov, V., and A. Zaitsev. 2008. Findings of the Technical mission: July 2026, 2008 (Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan). Report prepared for the World Bank as a part of TA on Improving Weather and Climate Service Delivery in Central Asia.

Kyrgyzhydromet. 2004. Manual “Terminology and accuracy of onetothreeday weather forecasts и warnings about hydrometeorological hazards and extreme hydrometeorological hazards. Bishkek.

Mayatskaya, I. 2005. Kyrgyz Republic – WeatherClimate Services. Report prepared for the World Bank.

Mayatskaya, I. 2008. Responses to Questionnaire on Assessment of the National HydroMeteorological Service Status and performance (preliminary). Bishkek. Kyrgyz Republic.

74

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Meleshko, A. 2008. Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic: Responses to Questionnaire on Expert’s Assessment of Economic Benefits in Sector due to NHMS Modernization. Bishkek.

Mokrousov, V.. 2008. Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic: Sectoral Expert’s Assessment of User Needs in HydroMeteorological Information And Forecasts. November 14, 2008. Bishkek. Kyrgyz Republic.

Rogers, D.P., Y. Adebayo, C. Clarke, S.J. Connor, R. DeGuzman, P. Dexter, L. Dubus, J. Guddal, L. Jalkanen, A. Korshunov, J.K. Lazo, H. Puempel, V. Smetanina, B. Stewart, Tang X., V. Tsirkunov, S. Ulatov, P-Y. Whung, and D.A. Wilhite. 2007. “Deriving Societal and Economic Benefits from Meteorological and Hydrological Services.” WMO Bulletin.

Roshydromet. 1985. Manual for Hydrometeorological Stations and Sites: Issue 3, Part 1 – Meteorological Observations at Stations (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad), Sakhvaeva, E. 2008a. Department of Water Resources (KR Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Processing Industry): Responses to Questionnaire on Expert’s Assessment of Economic Benefits in Sector due to NHMS Modernization. Bishkek.

Sakhvaeva, E. 2008b. Department of Water Resources (KR Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Processing Industry): Expert’s Assessment of Sectoral Needs in HydroMeteorological Information and Forecasts. Bishkek. Kyrgyz Republic.

SDC. 2006. Swiss Support to the Hydrometeorological Services in the Aral Sea Basin. Final Phase. August 2006 to July 2009.

Project Document. Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation. Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs. June.

SMEC International PTY Limited. 2008 (May). Report on Support to Strengthening the Main Department on Hydrometeorology of the KR Ministry of Emergency Situations (Kyrgyzhydromet). Project on Improvement of Water Resources Management. Water Resources Department. Project Implementation Unit.

Suleymanov, G. 2008. Farm Cooperative “MIS”, Ysyk-Atinski District. (KR Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Processing Industry): Expert’s Assessment of Sectoral Needs on HydroMeteorological Information And Forecasts. November 24, 2008. Bishkek. Kyrgyz Republic.

Tajikhydromet. 2008. Survey of Hydrometeorological provisions for users in the Republic of Tajikistan and their needs in hydrometeorlogical information. Dushanbe.

Tsirkunov, V., A. Korshunov, M. Smetanina, and S. Ulatov. 2006. Assessment of Economic Efficiency of Hydrometeorological Services in the Countries of the Caucasus Region. Report prepared as part of Weather/Climate Services pilot study in the countries of Europe and Central Asia.

Tsirkunov, V., M. Smetanina, A. Korshunov, and S. Ulatov, 2007. Assessment of Economic Benefits of Hydrometeorologicla Services in East Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Countries. In Some Perspectives on Social and Economic Benefits of Weather, Climate and waterrelated Information. WMO/TD – No. 1365.

Tsirkunov, V., M. Smetanina, A. Korshunov, and S. Ulatov. (2004). The Russian Federation Assessment of Economic Efficiency of the National Hydrometeorological System Modernization Project. Report on the Results of the Pilot Study for Economic Benefits of Hydrometeorological Information for Russian Economy. World Bank, Moscow.

Tsirkunov,V, S. Ulatov, M. Smetanina, and A. Korshunov. 2007. Customizing Methods of Assessing Economic Benefits of Hydrometeorological Services and Modernization Programs: Benchmarking and SectorSpecific Assessment. In Elements for Life.

Geneva: Tudor Rose on behalf of the WMO. UNDP. 2008a. Kyrgyzstan: UN Winter Preparedness Response Plan (October 2008) UNDP. 2008b. Stability of High-Land Lakes in Central Asia.

UNDP. 2009. Central Asia Regional Risk Assessment: Responding to Water, Energy, and Food Insecurity. Regional Bureau for Europe and CIS. January. New York.

UNOCHA. 2008. Situation Report 2 –winter energy crisis – KYRGYZSTAN - 28 JANUARY 2009.

75

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

UNWFP. 2008a. Integrated Household Survey 2006, 2007& 1st Quarter of 2008. Prepared by: Agnus Dhur, November UNWFP. 2008b. WFP Launches Winter Emergency Operation in Kyrgyzstan. Published on 25 November 2008.

WMO. 1994. Guide to hydrological practices. Data acquisition and processing analysis, forecasting and other applications.

WMONo.168, Geneva.

WMO. 2006. Technical Regulations Basic Documents No.2. Vol. III Hydrology, WMONo.49. First edition in 1988 Geneva.

WMO. 2007. SocioEconomic Benefits of Meteorological and Hydrological Services. WMO Bulletin. Vol. 56 (1)January 2007. Geneva.

World Bank. 2004. “Project Appraisal Document on a Proposed Loan in the Amount of USD 80 Million to the Government of the Russian Federation for a National Hydromet Modernization Project”. October 12.

World Bank. 2005. Drought: Management and Mitigation Assessment for Central Asia and the Caucasus. Report No: 31998ECA. March 11.

World Bank. 2008a. Materials of the Consultation Workshop “Improvement of Efficiency of Weather and Climate Service Delivery In Kyrgyz Republic”. Main Operational Department. KG Ministry of Emergency Situations. December, 16. Bishkek. Kyrgyz Republic.

World Bank. 2008b. Sample Questionnaire on Assessment of User Needs on Hydrometeorological Information And Forecasts.

World Bank. 2008c. Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia: A Regional Review. World Bank Working Paper No. 151. Washington, D.C.

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION SOURCES Asian Development Bank (ADB). Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2008 www.adb.org/statistics Asian Disaster Preparedness Center http://www.adpc.net/ CIA - The World Factbook – Kyrgyzstan https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworldfactbook/print/kg.html Department of Water Management of the Kyrgyz Republic http://www.water.kg/ Emergency Events Data Base (EMDAT) http://www.emdat.be/ Information resource on donors activities in the Kyrgyz Republic http://www.donors.kg/en Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States http://www.cisstat.org/ KG Government http://www.government.gov.kg/ KG Ministry of Emergency Situations http://www.mchs.in.kg/

76

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic http://www.stat.kg/ ReliefWeb http://www.reliefweb.int/ The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System http://www.gdacs.org/ UNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific http://www.unescap.org/icstd/SPACE/documents/DISASTER/Study_Report/AnnexI.asp United Nations Development Programme. Europe and CIS. http://europeandcis.undp.org/ United Nations Development Programme. The Kygyz Republic. http://www.undp.kg/ United Nations World Food Programme http://www.wfp.org/ WMO Public Weather Services Programme http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/publicationsguidelines_en.htm World Meteorological Organization (WMO) http://www.wmo.int/

77

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

ANNEXES Annex I. List, criteria and description of extreme (high-impact) hydrometeorological hazards and hydrometeorological hazards

Name of hazards

Description and criteria of EHH and HH

EXTREME (HIGHIMPACT) HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS Meteorological events Wind, including squalls and spouts Heavy rain (rain and snow, wet snow) Heavy snowfall Longlasting rain Heavy hail Severe snowstorm Severe dust (sand) storm Heavy fog Heavy glaze Deposit of wet snow and complex deposit Hard rime Severe heat Severe frost Extreme fire hazard Hydrological events High water flow

Mudflow

Snow avalanches

78

Maximum speed is 25 m/s or higher, in highland areas 35 m/s or higher 30 mm of precipitation or more received in 12 hours or less than 12 hours 20 mm of precipitation received in 12 hours or less than 12 hours 60 mm of precipitation or more received in two days Diameter of hailstones is 20 mm or bigger Snowstorm of 12 hours duration or longer with an average wind speed of 15 m/s or higher Dust storm of 6 hours duration or longer with an average wind speed of 15 m/s or higher and related reduction of MVR up to 100 m and less than 100 m Fog with MVR of 50 m and less than 50 m during 6 or more hours Diameter of ice deposit on a wire of a standard glaze-ice accretion device is 20 mm or more Diameter of deposit on a wire of a standard glaze-ice accretion device is 35 mm or more Diameter of deposit on a wire of a standard glaze-ice accretion device is 50 mm or more Maximum air temperature is 400 and higher during 5 days Minimum air temperature in valleys (lower than 1000 m above sea level) is -350 小 during 5 or more nights Fire hazard index is more than 40 0000 小 (by the formula of V.G. Nestrov) Water flow gauged during flood, ice jam and ice gorge events when lowland areas in settlements, agricultural lands, roads and railways can be submerged and large industrial and transport facilities can be damaged.

Flow of mud triggered by heavy rains or an outburst of dammed and morainal lakes.

It poses threat to settlements, sport and resort facilities, industrial enterprises, roads, irrigation systems and other facilities.

Mass of snow moving at high speed downslope and posing threat to settlements, sport and resort facilities, industrial enterprises, roads, irrigation systems and other facilities.

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Name of hazards

Frosts Soil drought Atmospheric drought

Dry hot wing

Description and criteria of EHH and HH Argometeorological events Air or soil surface temperature drops below 00C in the growing season on the area covering more than 30% of the farmland territory During 2 ten-day periods available moisture of the soil in a 0-29sm layer is 1 mm and less No effective precipitation (more than 5 mm per day) in the growing season during 30 consecutive day and longer at maximum air temperature higher than 300 С. In some days (not more than 25% of the period) maximum temperature can be lower than indicated above.

During 5 days or longer at air temperature of 300C or higher and wind speed of 5 m/s or higher a 30% or lower relative humidity persists.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS Meteorological events Rain, rain and snow, wet snow Snow Wind Snow storm Dust storm Fog Glaze Rime Deposit of wet snow Hail Thunderstorm Glazed frost (ice-crusted ground) Frosts

15-29 mm of precipitation received in 12 hours or less than 12 hours 7-19 mm of precipitation received in 12 hours or less than 12 hours Wind speed is 15-24 m/s (in the water area of the Issyk-Kul lake ≥ 10 m/s Wind speed is 11-14 m/s during ≥ 3 hours or ≥ 15 m/s during 12 hours or less than 12 hours Wind speed is 11-14 m/s during ≥ 3 hours or ≥ 15 m/s during 12 hours or less than 12 hours MVR 50-500 m during ≥ 3 hours or < 50 м during ≤ 6 hours Diameter of deposit is 6-19 mm Diameter of deposit is ≤ 50 mm Diameter of deposit is 11-34 mm Diameter of deposit is 6-19 mm

Agrometeorological events Air or soil surface temperature drops below 00C in the growing season on the area covering less than 30% of the farmland territory

79

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Annex 2. List of Products Produced by the State Meteorological Service (Kyrgyzhydromet) of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic NN 1

Type of information 2

Period of production 3

Frequency 4

Operational data 1

2 3 4 5 6 7

8

9

10

Warnings about extreme hydrometeorological events (including mudflows, avalanches, frosts, heavy precipitation), and drastic weather changes Daily hydrometeorological newsletter (1-3 day weather forecast) 10-day agrometeorological newsletter Review of weather conditions in Kyrgyz Republic during the past month Special briefing notes issued in case of anomalous weather conditions in Kyrgyz Republic Monthly weather forecast for the territory of Kyrgyz Republic Briefing note on precipitation accumulation in the autumnwinter season Hydrological forecasts of water level in rivers and inflow in large reservoirs: − vegetation period (April-September), − vegetation period, by months, − low-water period (October-March) − 5-day forecasts for rivers in irrigated farming areas − 10-day forecasts of inflow in large reservoirs − quarterly forecast of inflow in reservoirs Seasonal agrometeorological review of the territory of Kyrgyz Republic (spring, summer, autumn, winter) Special-purpose briefing notes including forecasts of:

During the year

As the risk of event occurrence arises

JanuaryDecember JanuaryDecember Monthly

Daily Every 10 days Before the 12-th

During the year Monthly January-April

Before the 15-th Before the 7-th (4 issues)

February-April March-August September March-September January-December March, June, September, December January, April, August, October

Before the 7-th (3 issues) 6 issues 1 issue every 5 days Every 10 days 4 issues 4 issues

− −

soil water content by early spring condition of winter crops before winter

February December

1 issue 2 issue

− − − − − − −

yield and croppage of raw cotton time of fruit crop blooming time of winter wheat ripening time of first mulberry leaves unfurling blooming time of first-crop perennial sown-grass time of first cotton boll opening yield and croppage of winter wheat

September March, April May, June March April, May July May, June

1 issue 2 issues 2 issues 1 issue 2 issues 1 issue 2 issues

11

Environmental pollution data

Monthly

12

Briefing notes on background air pollutant concentrations

During the year

Before the 14-th of every month At request

December December

1 issue 1 issue

April

1 issue At request

March

1 issue

Restricted use information 1 2 3 4 5

80

Agrometeorological yearbook Annual terrestrial data (hydrological yearbook) Water surface evaporation (yearbook) Retrospective materials on climatic conditions, water resources for the past 50-100 years Annual data on terrestrial surface water quality

3

1

1

2

Source: MoES’s data

110

Other Total: Human Fatalities (persons)**

46

9 226

72

20

1

71

9

10

1

Rock falls, landfalls * 1

1

3

Snowfall

1

1

Hail

2

Hurricane force wind

3

2

4

1994 61 100 7 9 4 6

2

1

1993 51 3 2 3 1

1

1

1

1

1992 2 4 2 10 7 4

Man-caused accidents, including major road accidents

Large-scale fires ** Infections, invasions *

2

1

3

Erosion * Formation of ravines *

3

1

1

Land subsidence *

Rainstorms

1991 31 2 2 11 5 1

1990 37 2 6 16 7 2

Types of events Mudflows and floods Landslides * Avalanches Earthquakes * Waterlogging *

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1995 12 15 47 7 1 1

183

7

1

1

1

1

2

2

3

1996 42 32 44 24 10 3

147

27

1

2

2

1

1

1

2

5

1997 23 17 6 15 9 5

118

11

1

2

2

3

4

3

3

1

1

3

1998 26 21 3 7 10 7

126

20

1

1

2

1999 28 25 13 13 10 6

141

5

1

7

12

23

14

1

1

2000 24 22 10 14 3 1

2 241 75

71

2

3

15

12

17

13

14

3

2002 95 19 12 14 20

16 192

2

8

20

15

29

24

3

2

4

23

2001 9 5 4 21 7

44

166

2

8

1

2

7

6

9

2003 43 47 25 11 5

91

1 200

4

2

2

9

10

12

17

2

2004 46 53 23 16 4

70

1 181

5

2

3

5

15

2

16

11

2005 44 31 21 21 4

85

1 185

8

1

6

23

16

21

0

13

2006 33 13 30 12 8

87

202

5

3

5

26

14

42

3

2007 70 5 14 18 4

Annex 3. Statistical data on the number of recorded natural, man-made, ecological and biosocial emergencies on the territory of Kyrgyzstan for the period of 1990 –2007 by types of events.

523

142 2710

25

47

29

81

117

125

161

18

15

26

100

Total 776 416 271 242 119

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

81

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Annex 4. Agenda. Consultation workshop “Improvement of Efficiency of Weather and Climate service Delivery in Kyrgyz Republic” December 16, 2008. Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

World Bank in collaboration with Main Department on Hydrometeorology of the KR Ministry of Emergency Situations (Kyrgyzhydromet) Consultation Workshop “IMPROVEMENT OF EFFICIENCY OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICE DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC” December 16, 2008, WB Bishkek office, Kyrgyz Republic

AGENDA

09:15-9:30 9:30 -09:50

9:50 -10:05 10:05 -10:20

10:20-10:50

10:50-11:20 11:20-11:35

11:35-11:55 11:55-12:30

12:30-12:50 12:50-13:00 13:15-14:00

82

Registration of participants Welcome remarks.

Akyl Aytbayev (Deputy Minister, KR Ministry of Emergency Situations) Christophe Bosch (SD Coordinator for Central Asia, World Bank) Muratbek Bakanov (Head, Kyrgyzhydromet) Workshop objectives and agenda. Overview of World Weather Watch Vladimir Tsirkunov (Project Team Leader, World Bank) Introduction of participants Current status of Kyrgyzhydromet System and Its Capacity to Forecast Hazardous Weather Events Speaker: Muratbek Bakanov (Kyrgyzhydromet) Hydrometeorological Hazards and their Impacts on Economy of Kyrgyz Republik: Overview, Main Needs to Improve Emergency Preparedness and Emergency Response Speakers: Asylbek Abdygulov (KR Ministry of Emergency Situations Data Needs Assessment of Weather Dependent Sectors: Discussion With Participation of National Sectoral Experts • agriculture • emergency response • water resources management • energy sector • transport • health sector Facilitated by Marina Smetanina (World Bank) Q&A, Coffeebreak Kyrgyzhydromet Modernization Issues: What Could Be Done to Improve Kyrgyzhydromet Service Delivery Speaker: Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank) Quantifying Economic Benefits of Hydromet Modernization in Kyrgyz Republic.

Speaker: Marina Smetanina (World Bank) Modernizing Hydromet Services in ECA Countries • World Bank Experience • Donors’ Views and Potential Interest to Participate in Kyrgyzhydromet Modernization Discussion facilitated by Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank) Donors presentations/comments Final Discussion: Workshop Recommendations Chaired by: Muratbek Bakanov (Kyrgyzhydromet) Closing Remarks Speaker(s): Muratbek Bakanov (Kyrgyzhydromet), Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank) Lunch

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Annex 5. List of Participants. Consultation workshop “Improvement of Efficiency of Weather and Climate service Delivery in Kyrgyz Republic” December 16, 2008. Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic Name SAKABIEVA, Tamara Abdyshevna KOSHMATOV, Barataly Turanovich

Position/Organization MINISTRIES AND DEPARTMENTS Main Specialist, Department of financing policy for real sector, KG Ministry of Finance

KOZHOBOGENOV, Syrgabolat Kalchoroevich

Head, Department of Water Resources Management, KG Ministry of agriculture, water management services and industry Deputy General Director, State Directorate of Bishkek-Osh highway

BAZARALIEV, Beknazar Toktosunovich

Head, Satellite communication service, State Directorate of Bishkek-Osh highway

RAIMKULOV, Kursantbek

Head, Parasitologic Department KG Ministry of Health

VASHNEVA, Nina Sergeevna

Main Specialist, Sanitary inspection, KG Ministry of Health

BUTENKO, Liudmila Pavlovna

Lead Engineer, Hydrotechnical Service

ELETSKIY, Anatoly Ivanovich

Lead Specialist, Department for Scientific research and development of agriculture

USOLTSEV, Alexander Viktorovich

Lead Specialist, Public corporation “Bishkek heating network”

SULEYMANOV, A.T.

AYTVAEB, Akyl Kazakovich

Chief Specialist, Department of Water Industry, KG Ministry of agriculture, water management services and industry Deputy Minister, KG Ministry of Emergency Situations

ABDYRAEV, Dostan

Head, Department of external relations and agreements, KG Ministry of Emergency Situations

BAKANOV, Muratbek Toktobaevich

Head, Main Department on Hydrometeorology, KG Ministry of Emergency Situations

AYTALIYEV Anarkul Maksutovich ZHUMALIEV, Nurbek Almazbekovich

Deputy Director, Department for monitoring, forecasting of emergency situations and tailing dumps management, KG Ministry of Emergency Situations Deputy Director, Department on mudflows and mudslides «Selvodzashita» KG Ministry of Emergency Situations

ABDYGULOV, Asylbek

Senior Officer, Main Operational Department, KG Ministry of Emergency Situations

MAYATSKAYA, Inna Akimovna

Head, department of hydrometeorological observations, forecasts and provisions of information, Main Department on Hydrometeorology, KG Ministry of Emergency Situations Lead Specialist, Department for monitoring, forecasting of emergency situations and tailing dumps management, KG Ministry of Emergency Situations

ABYKULOV, Sovetbek Sultanbaevich

83

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

BOROVIKOVA, Liudmila Nikolaevna

84

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND PROJECTS Expert of PPU «Swiss support to Hydromet services in Aral see basin”

KRUTOV, Anatoly Nikolaevich

Head, Working group of SMEС company for the project «Improvement of water resources management”»

MOLDOBEKOV, Bolot Dushenalievich

Co-director, Central Asian institute for applied studies of the Earth”

SAKHVAEVA, Ekaterina Pavlovna

Water resources expert, Working group of SMEС company for the project «Improvement of water resources management”»

MAAG, Hanspeter

Director, Swiss Cooperation Office

MAKHMUDOV, Bakyt

Coordinator, Swiss Cooperation Office

KALCHIEV, Ermek

Expert of PPU «Swiss support to Hydromet services in Aral see basin”

TURSUNBEKOV, Esen

DFID project

USENBAEV, Nurbolot Tolosovich

Manager, Project on Malaria (GFATM)

BOSCH, Christophe

WORLD BANK SD Coordinator for Central Asia World Bank, Central Asia Office, Almaty

TSIRKUNOV, Vladimir

Project Team Leader, ECSSD

SMETANINA, Marina Igorevna

Project Coordinator/Consultant

ROGERS, David

Project Consultant

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Annex 6. Major Preliminary Findings and Recommendations. Consultation workshop “Improvement of Efficiency of Weather and Climate service Delivery in Kyrgyz Republic” December 16, 2008. Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

MAJOR FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (preliminary) As part of Technical Assistance program funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), and the World Bank project implemented in the Republic of Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan, an assessment is underway to review development prospects of the Main Department for Hydrometeorology of the KR Ministry of Emergencies (Kyrgyzhydromet), and ways to improve the quality of weather service delivery.

Workshop objective: Discuss preliminary findings of this work; prepare recommendations and an action plan to improve Kyrgyzhydromet capacity in the delivery of weather and hydrological services and information, as well as warnings about hydrometeorological hazards provided to KR Government, economy and population.

The workshop was preceded by the work of World Bank experts, Kyrgyzhydromet specialists, and experts from several ministries and agencies.

The workshop agenda is presented in Annex 1.

The workshop was attended by: Representatives of KR ministries and agencies, World Bank, donor community, and other concerned stakeholders.

The list of participants is presented in Annex 2.

Having heard and discussed presentations delivered by participants, the workshop makes the following observations: Comprehensive review of the current status and future development of the national weather service of the Kyrgyz Republic is being performed for the first time and covers the following key areas: 1) hazardous weather impact on the national economy and population; 2) user needs in Kyrgyzhydromet forecast products; 3) current technical status of Kyrgyzhydromet, and ways of its technical and technological retrofitting and modernization; 4) estimated economic damage caused by weather hazards and disasters, and economic benefits of Kyrgyzhydromet modernization in the context of damage reduction; 5) priority measures to facilitate efficient delivery of weather information and services to KR economy and population, including weather hazard and disaster warnings, as well as risk reduction and climate change adjustment issues; The urgency of weather service modernization is determined by the role the data on current and forecasted weather events and conditions plays in ensuring sustainable socio-economic development and national security of the country; There are over 20 kinds of hydrometeorological disasters (EHH) and 13 weather hazards (WH) occurring within Kyrgyzstan.

According to KR Ministry of Emergencies (MOE) data based on 2002-2006 operational reports, average annual economic damage caused only by hydrological and weather emergencies amounts to 1 billion soms in 2006 prices (about USD25 million) or almost 0.9% of GDP. The highest risk to most industries and population of Kyrgyzstan is caused by mudflows and floods, avalanches and storm rainfalls. Major weather-related risks to the largest sector of economy – agriculture (35% of GDP in 2002-2006) – include late spring and early autumn frosts, droughts (aggravated by low water in rivers), winter thaws (for winter cereals), and hailing26.

Availability of modern measuring devices, advanced technologies and developed scientific methodology are essential prerequisites for reliable operation of the national system of weather observations and forecasting to provide the users with timely and sound information and services; Unsatisfactory technical and technological condition of Kyrgyzhydromet due to persistent underfunding is a systemic problem of the Service. As a result of insufficient budget financing of the NHMS, and, above all, the lack of capital investments in measuring equipment, over 90% of measuring devices have exhausted their operational capacity. Another challenge is related to a sparse network of meteorological stations and hydrological gauges and, as a consequence, insufficient coverage of highmountain areas, almost non-existent automatic technical systems, meteorological radars, modern remote sensing technologies and means of data processing and transmission, critical condition of Kyrgyzhydromet’s hydrometeorological data bank; Poor technical and technological condition of equipment leads to Kyrgyzhydromet’s lagging behind meteorological services in developed countries, deteriorates the quality of observational data and forecasts, especially those of hydrometeorological disasters, adversely affects the efficiency of services provided for public needs, as well as the needs of sectors and enterprises, and impedes implementation of international and regional obligations, inter alia, under the Global Weather Watch; Persistent underfunding of the Hydrometeorological Service may in the near future trigger failure of most measuring devices, necessitate shifting from instrumental observations to visual ones, and dramatically reduce the quality of background data used for hydrometeorological forecasting and service delivery to users; 26 KR MOE collects data from operational reports; therefore, some events (droughts, frosts, etc.) causing economic damage that manifests in later periods rather than immediately may fall out of record.

85

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

There is an urgent need for technical and technological retrofitting of the NHMS in view of increasing sectoral requirements to the quality of weather services; Recommendations on Kyrgyzhydromet modernization were developed based on (i) a review of the situation regarding EHH and WH identification, forecasting and warning; (ii) Kyrgyzstan’s obligations under international and intergovernmental agreements; (iii) review of outcomes of on-going international Technical Assistance projects in support of NHMS; (iv) needs of the national economy for weather services; (v) review of the current status of the NHMS and capacity to ensure its functioning.

To ensure stable satisfactory condition of Kyrgyzhydromet and efficient delivery of weather services, Kyrgyzhydromet modernization should include the following: (i) improvement of hydrometeorological monitoring system based on sound design of monitoring and telecommunication facilities, technical retrofitting of the observational network, and strengthening the information and technical framework of the Service; (ii) strengthening the institutional capacity of NHMS and enhancing its staff and financial sustainability through improving institutional and legal support of user services, strengthening regulatory and methodological framework, improving delivery of special-purpose (fee-for-service) services, and professional development and training of staff.

The total estimated cost of proposed modernization activities makes up USD8.3 million (in 2006 prices). The estimated program life is 4 years.

Review of economic benefits from improved weather service delivery to Kyrgyzstan economy and population as a result of NHMS technical and technological retrofitting relied on such methods as “meteorological risk assessment”, “method of sectorspecific assessment”, “benchmarking approach”, and “cost-benefit analysis” in 2006 prices. Lack of regular records of economic losses/damage (both in physical and value terms) caused by the whole range of hydrometeorological disasters and hazardous weather conditions was the main challenge in the economic assessment performed using the above range of methodological approaches; According to the economic assessment of meteorological risks of major EHH and HW impact on the national economy performed on the basis of available information on average annual recurrence and damage per event (for mudflows, floods, avalanches, rainstorms, hailing, windstorms, snowfalls, droughts and frosts), average annual weather-related economic damage was estimated to be 700-1100 million soms, or USD17-28 million (0.7-1.1% of the average annual GDP in 2000-2007); According to the benchmarking approach, the total average annual amount of direct damage caused by EHH and HW was estimated as USD29 million (1.1% of the average annual GDP in 2000-2007); According to the sector-specific assessment using adjusted MOE data, average annual economic losses from meteorological emergencies, as well as HW and unfavorable weather conditions during 2002-2006 were estimated to equal 1400 million soms, or USD35 million (1.36% of GDP); Potential economic benefits from the implementation of the proposed Modernization Program range from USD2.9 million (“benchmarking” assessment) to USD4.7 million (“sector-specific” assessment) per year. Assuming that this mean annual economic effect will be provided within 7 years of implementation and active use of equipment, total benefits of Program implementation will equal from USD20 million to USD33 million. Economic efficiency of investments in Program implementation will make up from 240% to 400%, respectively, or, in other words, each dollar spent on Kyrgyzhydromet modernization may yield at least USD2.4-4.0 of revenues as a result of prevented damage.

Cost-benefit analysis was also performed (using data on average annual losses obtained by sector-specific assessment), which is also indicative of a significant economic feasibility of Program implementation. Costbenefit ratio makes up 2.6, and discounted payback period is estimated as 4.6 years.

The workshop noted: 1. The existence of problems in terms of insufficient modern technical equipment of Kyrgyzhydromet, which ultimately undermines its capacity to provide high-quality meteorological services. In addition, the participants emphasized that significant economic losses result from inadequate level of cooperation between Kyrgyzhydromet and major users of meteorological information due to the lack of technical and technological capacity to provide the required data and forecasts, especially at the regional level. Therefore, Kyrgyzhydromet modernization is viewed as a critical and urgent task.

2. The importance of involving experts from several ministries and agencies in assessing user needs for hydrometeorological information and services, and the value of this work for Kyrgyzhydromet and agencies themselves. This work should be continued to define the adequate level of public funding required to minimize economic losses, and identify areas of the most efficient use of these funds.

3. The advisability to consider the experience of the World Bank, WMO and other international organizations in the implementation of comprehensive projects on improving weather service delivery.

86

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

The workshop recommends Kyrgyzhydromet to: • Establish a working group (including experts from concerned weather-dependent sectors/agencies) and, based on the outcomes of the performed analytical work, develop investment proposal on Kyrgyzhydromet modernization to be submitted according to the established procedure to KR Government for possible inclusion in the public investment program; • Submit updated proposals for donor consideration for possible financing/co-financing of individual components/elements of the proposed Kyrgyzhydromet modernization program; • Improve human resources management (training/retraining of NHMS personnel while developing a system of incentives to retain the available qualified resources and attract new specialists); • Strengthen the mechanisms of Kyrgyzhydromet cooperation with users including interaction of regional hydromet units with regional governments and authorities, public and commercial enterprises and media (possibly with the use of new technical facilities); • Elaborate major principles and mechanisms of cooperation with various user categories in respect of fee-based delivery of data and products; • Actively involve the most weather-dependent sectors in co-financing of programs on targeted collection and use of hydrometeorological information; • Update the issues of efficient use of hydrometeorological information to provide additional benefits for the national economy and population through a series of focused consultation activities with specific user categories; • Upon completion of the study, together with the press office of the Ministry of Emergencies, perform a series of activities to disseminate the outcomes of the Technical Assistance Project.

87

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Annex 7 List of Activities and Budget for the Three Modernization Options

NN

Activities

A

Development of Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system

Option 1 Qty

Cost

Option 2 Qty

520,000

Cost 300,000

Cost 500,000

Developing the concept of Kyrgyzhydromet development

1

70,000

1

70,000

1

70,000

Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system

1

400,000

1

200,000

1

400,000

Individual consultants

50,000

30,000

30,000

B

Improve the system of hydrometeorological monitoring to provide timely warnings of extreme and hazardous weather events and to manage water resources

10,730,000

2,255,000

6,765,000

B.1

Technical upgrading of the observational network

7,080,000

1,795,000

4,385,000

B.1.1

Restoration and technical upgrading of the meteorological observational network

2,275,000

855,000

1,175,000

B.1.1.1

Equip meteorological stations with autonomous automatic weather stations including spare parts stock and rotating pool of meters, power supply and communication facilities

32

1,130,000

32

Equip meteorological stations with sets of standard instruments and power supply and communication equipment

480,000

Equip meteorological stations with standard measuring instruments, including AWS, with packages of spare parts, sensors for rotation pool, power supply and communication systems

B.1.1.2

Establish cluster radio stations

3

105,000

B.1.1.3

Introduce automatic meteorological stations in remote highland areas where previously closed stations were located; Modernize communication equipment and AMC operatorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s software at 7 earlier installed AMC

10

280,000

Modernize communication equipment, implement operating rules required to extend the service life of 7 AMS, and install them in remote highland areas in places where previously closed stations were located

88

Option 3 Qty

B.1.1.4

Supply transport vehicles; individual transport vehicles to support agrometeorological observations

B.1.1.5

Refurbish and rehabilitate office and residential buildings at meteorological stations proposed for upgrading

280,000

32

32

800,000

3

60,000

3

60,000

7

35,000

7

35,000

280,000

280,000

480,000

360,000

360,000

B.1.2

Resume temperature-wind atmosphere sounding

B.1.2.1

Procure and install temperature-wind sounding complex at AS in Bishkek

1

200,000

1

200,000

B.1.2.2

Procure hydrogen generating unit

1

80,000

1

80,000

B.1.2.3

Procure a set of radio sounders and balloons to support sounding

1

80,000

1

80,000

B.1.3

Renew key observation sites of the hydrological network, and equipping the operating posts with the required additional instruments and devices

3,250,000

400,000

1,655,000

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC Option 1

Option 2

Option 3

NN

Activities

Qty

Cost

Qty

Cost

B1.3.1

Equip priority hydrological posts with the required additional measuring instruments and communication facilities

31

775,000

31

775,000

B1.3.2

Restore hydrological posts

15

300,000

15

300,000

B1.3.3

Rehabilitate hydrological equipment and facilities

31

310,000

B1.3.4

Introduce hydrological complexes for water level and discharge measurements

14

420,000

6

180,000

B1.3.5

Procure mobile hydrological laboratories

4

800,000

2

400,000

B1.3.6

Equip hydrochemical laboratory in Osh RCHM

1

500,000

B1.3.7

Procure sets of equipment to measure hydrochemical parameters of water for the purposes of surface water pollution control

5

75,000

B1.3.1.8

Resume regular hydrological and hydrochemical observations at Lake Issyk-Kul

1

70,000

B.1.4

Restore snow avalanche observation network

B.1.4.1

Install automatic snow-measuring complexes for snow depth measurements

B.1.4.2

Provide instruments and equipment for snow measurements and airborne snow surveys along 5 snow-measuring routes

380,000

380,000

380,000

B.1.5

Establish quality control of hydrometeorological data and products

440,000

160,000

440,000

Qty

2

755,000 5

Cost

400,000

380,000

375,000

755,000 5

B.1.5.1

Provide a stationary testing system

1

160,000

B.1.5.2

Introduce mobile testing and repair laboratories

2

280,000

B.2

Strengthen the IT base of Kyrgyzhydromet

3,630,000

460,000

2,380,000

B.2.1

Modernize technologies for meteorological data and product receipt at the KHMC in Bishkek and RCHMs, establish departmental communication system

90,000

30,000

90,000

B.2.2

Modernize lower-level communication subsystem, organize data collection and dissemination at RCHMs

B.2.3

Provide equipment for introduction of regional numerical models of weather forecasts and runoff calculations, prepare information for hydrometeorological data users

250,000

B.2.4

Introduce modern computer technologies of data processing, forecasting and representation at KHMC in Bishkek

130,000

B.2.5

Adjust regional and mesoscale numerical weather forecast models for Kyrgyzstan

300,000

300,000

B.2.6

Adjust runoff calculation models

300,000

300,000

B.2.7

Establish database on impacts of extreme and hazardous weather events

50,000

50,000

B.2.8

Introduce complexes for the preparation of hydrological and meteorological data in view of establishing operational archives at RCHMs and KHMC

100,000

B.2.9

Establish a holding of paper records with storage racks, lamplight and required temperature-humidity conditions

250,000

6

1

160,000

375,000

210,000

1

160,000

2

280,000

6

210,000

100,000

130,000

100,000

130,000

100,000

250,000

89

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

90

Option 1

Option 2

Option 3

NN

Activities

B.2.10

Provide equipment for blueprinting and digitizing of paper records (a set of various scanners: large-scale rotary, high-speed sheetfeed scanner, and planetary scanner for unpulled documents)

500,000

B.2.11

Provide software and hardware for recognition of information on paper (workstations for each scanner, standard software)

100,000

100,000

B.2.12

Provide hardware and software for storage of digitalized paper records (disk array, robotic library, management server, indexing software allowing search by index and retrieval of the required document)

1,000,000

400,000

B.2.13

Provide block of hydrometeorological data dissemination (at least, two 2-4 processor servers, OC Windows, DBMS and technological software)

350,000

150,000

C.

Institutional strengthening and capacity building

1,605,000

1,000,000

1,025,000

C.1

Enhance service delivery

1,045,000

600,000

625,000

C.1.1

Improve Service to Ministry of Emergencies â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mobile met teams, Advisory Body

150,000

150,000

150,000

C.1.2

Media (delivery of information to media)

50,000

50,000

50,000

C.1.3

Improve National Climate Service

115,000

100,000

115,000

C.1.4

Userinterface advisory body & user workshops

120,000

70,000

70,000

C.1.5

Website, user access to data

310,000

80,000

80,000

C.1.6

Regulatory Strengthening . Develop and bring into force Kyrgyzhydromet regulations on observational practice, data processing, storage and representation in accordance with the national legislation and practice

300,000

100,000

100,000

C.1.7

Develop draft methodological guidelines on observational practice in view of the upgrading of observational networks

100,000

C.1.8

Improve Commercial Services (SHMS). Develop Commercial business model, intellectual property licensing, etc

60,000

50,000

60,000

C.2

Staff training and professional upgrading

500,000

400,000

400,000

C.2.1

Procure equipment for the center for professional upgrading and retraining of observational unit staff

250,000

150,000

150,000

C.2.2

Develop training aids to study specifications and operation of modern technical facilities

50,000

50,000

50,000

C.2.3

Training (onsite training, study tours) and logistical support

200,000

200,000

200,000

Total:

12,835,000

3,550,000

8,290,000

Qty

Cost

Qty

Cost 200,000

Qty

Cost 200,000