IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERYIN TURKMENISTAN

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN This report reviews the social and economic requirements for weather, climate and hydrological information in Turkmenistan, assesses the capacity of the Turkmen National hydrometeorological Service to meet these needs, and proposes steps to be taken to fill gaps.

World Bank 2009

Table of Contents PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 PURPOSE OF REPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND NATURAL HAZARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 ROLE OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN KYRGYZSTAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS FOR WEATHHR, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION. . . 8 STATUS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 PROPOSED MODERNIZATION OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 NEXT STEPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 CHAPTER 1. KEY WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.1. MAIN GEOGRAPHICAL AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.2. WEATHHR AND CLIMATE RISKS AND THHIR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.2.1. WEATHHR, CLIMATE AND WATER HAZARDS: CLASSIFICATION, CLIMATOLOGY AND IMPACTS . . . . . . . 16 1.2.2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DAMAGE ESTIMATES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 METHOD OF ESTIMATES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 SOURCES OF INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ESTIMATES OF METEOROLOGICAL RISKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 1.3. WEATHHR-DEPENDENCE OF ECONOMY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 1.4. SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY ASSESSMENT OF TURKMEN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.1. LEGAL, ORGANIZATIONAL AND FINANCIAL ASPECTS, STAFFING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.1.1. BRIEF HISTORY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.1.2. NMHS ACTIVITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.1.3. INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.1.4. REGIONAL CENTERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 2.1.5. NMHS BUDGET. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 2.1.6. STAFFING ARRANGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 2.1.7. TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADING PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.1.8. BUILDINGS, FACILITIES AND CAPITAL ASSETS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.1.9. CONTACTS WITH MASS MEDIA AND COMMUNITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.1.10. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COOPERATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.1.11. COMPLETED PROJECTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 2.1.12. ON-GOING PROJECTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 2.1.13. COORDINATION WITH OTHHR AGENCIES WORKING IN THH FIELD OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY . . . 32 2.2. OBSERVATION NETWORK, INFRASTRUCTURE, FACILITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.2.1. NMHS OBSERVATION SYSTEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 GROUND-BASED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 REMOTE OBSERVATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.2.2. TECHNICAL SUPPORT OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL EQUIPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.2.3. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN WEATHHR FORECASTING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 ROUTINE FORECASTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 EVALUATION OF ROUTINE FORECASTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 ACCESS TO NUMERICAL MODEL DATA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.2.4. TELECOMMUNICATIONS, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 COLLECTION AND TRANSMISSION OF DATA AND INFORMATION PRODUCTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2.2.5. NATIONAL DATA EXCHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2.2.6. INTERNATIONAL DATA EXCHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

2.3. PRODUCTS AND SERVICE DELIVERY, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, NATIONAL COORDINATION . . . . . 41 2.3.1. WEATHHR INFORMATION SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.3.2. CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.3.3. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.3.4. HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.3.5. SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH AND CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.3.7. INFORMATION SERVICES PROVIDED AT USER REQUEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 2.4 SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 CHAPTER 3 ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 3.1 APPROACHHS TO NEEDS ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 3.2 ASSESSMENT OF KEY SECTOR’S NEEDS FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3.2.1. TURKMENHYDROMET VISION OF USER NEEDS IN HYDROMETEROLOGICAL INFORMATION AND FORECASTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3.2.1. EMERGENCIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.2.2. AGRICULTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 3.2.3. WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 3.2.4. OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 3.2.5. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 3.2.6. COMMUNAL SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 3.2.7. TRANSPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 3.3. EVALUATION OF SECTOR NEEDS AND NMHS CAPACITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 3.4. SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 CHAPTER 4. ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE DELIVERY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 4.1. GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUNDS OF ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 4.2. APPROACHHS TO ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 4.3. RESULTS OF THH ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THH PROPOSED TURKMENHYDROMET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 4.4. SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 CHAPTER 5. HOW TO IMPROVE WEATHHR AND CLIMATE SERVICE DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 5.1. POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT (MODERNIZATION PROPOSAL) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 5.2. ACTION PLAN AND NEXT STEPS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 ANNEXES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

PREFACE This report is prepared as a part of a technical assistance project “An Action Plan for Improving Weather and Climate Service Delivery in High-risk, Low-income Countries in Central Asia” funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). GFDRR is a partnership of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) system to support implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. The Hyogo Framework endorsed by the UN general Assembly is the primary international agreement for disaster reduction. The GFDRR is managed by the World Bank on behalf of the participating donor stakeholders. The GFDRR provides technical and financial assistance to high risk, low- and middle-income countries to mainstream disaster reduction in national development strategies and plans to achieve Millennium Development Goals.

The report is based on the findings of the World Bank technical missions and surveys undertaken in Turkmenistan in 2008. A user consultation workshop, which focused on the efficacy of the Turkmenistan’s national hydrometeorological services was conducted on September 30, 2008. The report will contribute to the development of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters. This Program was recently launched, coordinated by the World Bank, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the umbrella of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC).

The program incorporates three focus areas: (i) disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) risk financing and transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. This Initiative would form the foundation for regional and country specific investment priorities (projects) in the area of early warning, disaster risk reduction and financing. While the initiative would initially focus on on-structural measures, it could in a subsequent phase support structural investments aimed at protecting assets, lives and livelihood of communities in disasterprone areas. It could be financed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and other interested donors. Funds could also be provided for adaptation to climate change and streamlining adaptation activities into countries’ development programs.

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IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The main authors of the report are David Rogers, Marina Smetanina, and Vladimir Tsirkunov who is also the Task Team Leader for this GFDRR project. A. Korshunov, V. Kotov and A. Zaitsev participated in the country missions and developed technical background documents and studies on climate vulnerability, capacity assessment of Turkmenhydromet and modernization alternatives.

L. Hancock and S. Sharipova contributed to the development of the study concept, provided valuable information and participated in the report preparation.

The authors would like to thank the staff of the Turkmenhydrometeorological service in its central office and regional centers, which facilitated the work of technical missions in Ashgabat and Turmenobad, Mary, Lebap and Mary velayats. Preparation of this report was advanced significantly by substantive inputs and coordination efforts made especially by Kakamurat A. Yazyev, Chairman of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology, and Dovran Boltaev, Director of Scientific and Research Center “Climate� of Turkmenhydromet. Important contribution to user needs assessments was made by experts from the entities of sectoral ministries/agencies of Turkmenistan, in particular Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Oil& Gas Industry and Mineral resources, Ministry of Water Industry, Ministry of Railway Transport, Ministry of Energy and Industry, Ministry of Nature Protection. The project team benefited from constructive dialogue with representatives of interested ministries and state agencies of Turkmenistan who took part in the workshop organized in partnership and with support of the Ministry of Finance of Turkmenistan and the National Hydrometeorology Committee at the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan, and demonstrated their unanimous recognition of urgent importance and support to improving Turkmenhydromet capacity.

The authors are grateful for support and valuable advice received from Roger Robinson, Country Manager for Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan, and also Serdar Jepbarov, Operations Officer World Bank Liaison Office in Turkmenistan, who also cochaired and kindly participated in discussions at the Consultation workshop with stakeholders. The assistance provided by colleagues from Ashgabat World Bank Office, especially Maral Amansahatova, while preparing technical missions and consultation workshop, is highly appreciated.

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IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB CIS DWC ECA EHH GEF GFDRR GIS GTS HH IASRF IBRD IFI IFRC IPCC IWRM JICA TN NMHS PWS R&D RT SDC SECO Turkmenhydromet UNCCC UNCCD UNDAF UNDP UNEP UNESCAP UNISDR UNOCHA UNWFP VCP WMO

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Asian Development Bank Commonwealth of Independent States Drastic Weather Changes Europe and Central Asia Extreme (high impact) Hydrometeorological Hazards Global Environment Facility Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery Geographical Information System Global Telecommunication System (WMO) hydrometeorological Hazards International Aral Sea Rehabilitation Fund International Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Financial Institution International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Integrated Water Resource Management Japan International Cooperation Agency JICA The Turkmen Republic National Meteorological and Hydrological Service Public Weather Service Research and Development Republic of Turkmenistan Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation State Secretariat for Economic Affairs of Swiss Ministry of Economic Affairs National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan United Nations Climate Change Conference United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification United Nations Development Assistance Framework United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environmental Program United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific United Nations International Strategy for Disaster reduction United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs United Nations World Food Programme Voluntary Cooperation Programme (WMO) World Meteorological Organization – a United Nations agency

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PURPOSE OF REPORT This report is prepared as a part of a broader technical assistance project funded by a Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) grant that is being implemented by the World Bank in the Republic of Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan. The overall objective of the project is to advance the disaster risk reduction agenda in Central Asia by developing specific actions to improve weather, climate and hydrological service delivery, which will contribute to national hazard risk reduction programs and improve capacity for emergency management.

The purpose of this specific report is to identify the social and economic requirements of Turkmenistan for weather, climate and hydrological information and to assess to capacity of the Turkmen State hydrometeorological Service (Turkmenhydromet) to meet these needs. The report identifies the gaps and weaknesses in producing and delivering weather, climate and hydrological information and services, and recommends how to restore and improve the capability of the national hydrometeorological service to save lives and livelihoods, and support social and economic development.

GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND NATURAL HAZARDS Turkmenistan is located in south-western part of Central Asia between 35°08’ and 42°48’ of northern latitude and 52°27’ and 66°41’ of eastern longitude, bordering in the north and north-east with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in the south and southeast with Iran and Afghanistan. The Caspian Sea is Turkmenistan’s western boundary with 1,768 km long coastline (see Figure 1.1).

The territory of Turkmenistan stretches for 1,110 km from west to east and 650 km from north to south. The area is 491.2 thousand sq. km, (almost all of which is land surface), making it the second largest country in Central Asia, after Kazakhstan.

The country’s topography is diverse. Turkmenistan’s average elevation is 100 to 220 meters above sea level, with its highest point being Mount Ayrybaba (3,137 meters) in the Kugitang Range of the Pamir-Alay chain in the far east, and its lowest point in the Transcaspian Depression (100–110 meters below sea level). Nearly 80 percent of the republic lies within the Turon Depression, which slopes from south to north and from east to west.

A dominant feature of the republic’s landscape is the Kara Kum Desert, which stretches from the northern to the southern border and occupies about 350,000 square kilometers. Shifting winds create desert mountains that range from two to twenty meters in height and may be several kilometers in length. Chains of such structures are common, as are steep elevations and smooth, concrete-like clay deposits formed by the rapid evaporation of flood waters in the same area for a number of years. Large marshy salt flats, formed by capillary action in the soil, exist in many depressions, including the Kara Shor, which occupies 1,500 square kilometers in the north-west. The Sundukly Desert west of the Amu Darya is the southernmost extremity of the Qizilqum (Russian spelling Kyzyl Kum) Desert, most of which lies in Uzbekistan to the north-east.

Over 18 types of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena occur in the country every year. They include: high and low air temperatures, droughts, frosts, strong wind, dust storms, snowdrifts on roads, heavy precipitation, floods, high water, mudflows, Ice jam on rivers, storm surge at the Caspian Sea, dense fogs and etc., that impose damages to the national economy and industry.

Historical records on specific types of Extreme hydrometeorological Hazards (EHH) and hydrometeorological Hazards (HH) are incomplete. Database is stored in hard copies and updated as appropriate. No zoning (mapping) of climatic recurrence of the above events has been carried out. However, observational data enable identification of the areas of frequent occurrence of these events. Frosts occur over the entire territory, except southern areas. Dust storms occur in the Central Kara Kum Desert, northern and central flat areas in Balkan velayat, central and northern areas in Akhal and Mary velayats, south-eastern areas in Lebap velayat. Droughts occur in Dashoguz velayat, Kara Kum Desert, northern areas of Balkan, Akhal and Mary velayats. Heavy precipitation occurs in the piedmont and southern areas. Floods occur along the whole length of the Amy Darya River, and short duration rainfall flooding occurs in floodplains of small rivers – Murgab, Tedjen, Etrek and Sumbar. .

ROLE OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN KYRGYZSTAN Turkmenhydromet is a public authority responsible for the implementation of the national hydrometeorological policy and meeting the needs of the national economy, industry and population of Turkmenistan in the information on actual and expected changes in hydrometeorological conditions and their consequences.

Turkmenhydromet provides short-, medium- and long-term weather forecasts, hydrological forecasts including those of the beginning and extent of flooding, formation of rainfall floods and mudflow development, as well as marine and agrometeorological forecasts.

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Weather forecasts for 1 day, 2-3 days, 7 days and once a month for 30 days are made for public authorities, all information products being disseminated in hard copies before the beginning of working day. In addition, storm warnings about hazardous hydrometeorological events are communicated on a real-time basis.

The work of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Turkmenistan Cabinet of Ministers (Turkmenhydromet) is governed by Turkmenistan Law on hydrometeorological Activities of September 15, 1999 # 392-1, and Regulations of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan of January 15, 1998 # 3492.

By Resolution of the President of Turkmenistan of November 6, 1992, Turkmenistan acceded to the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and became the full Member of WMO on January 3, 1993. According to the WMO General and Technical Rules of Procedure, Turkmenhydromet participates in WMO scientific and technical programs, and hydrometeorological data and products exchange based on the principles of free and unlimited exchange of information. In compliance with the Law of Turkmenistan on hydrometeorological Activities dated September 15, 1999, the NHMS takes part in the global exchange of hydrometeorological data with foreign institutions.

In compliance with the Agreement on Cooperation in the Area of Hydrometeorology between CIS Countries dated February 8, 1992, Turkmenistan exchanges hydrometeorological data and forecasts with Russia and Uzbekistan. Exchange of data on hazardous weather events is performed based on bilateral agreements with Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan.

No separate agreements on hydrometeorology have been signed with the neighboring countries Afghanistan and Iran, and meteorological data from these countries are being obtained under the World Weather Watch through the WMO global telecommunication system (GTS).

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS FOR WEATHHR, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION In this study weather-dependence of the country’s economy is characterized by the total share of weather-dependent sectors in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). All sectors of the economy are exposed to impact of EHHs and HHs either directly or indirectly.

However a degree of impact differs depending on type of activities and technological process of a specific sector as well as on what tools and technologies are used to incorporate hydrometeorological forecasts and services into management decision and protection measures.

A list of weather-dependent sectors was determined by the experts of the NHMS of Turkmenistan on the basis of official statistical information and clarified based on the survey among experts from weather-dependant sectors. The list includes agriculture, mining industry (oil & gas operating at the Caspian shelf, first of all), transport and communication, energy sector, construction.

An averaged share of main weather-dependent sectors of the Turkmenistan economy in the period under review was 42.5% of the GDP. Taking into account that in this study a lower estimate of economic efficiency of Turkmenhydromet operation is determined, it can be taken as the initial estimate.

Agriculture, representing about 18% of GDP, is exposed to weather conditions most of all, and to a considerable extent determines the level of overall losses suffered by the economy. Agriculture rank first in terms of weather-dependence due to its specific features, i.e. permanent exposure to weather, seasonal character of operations, vast territories and the lack of efficient protection measures against EHHs and HHs. Drought has a major impact on agriculture in Turkmenistan, which is mostly irrigated; the lack of water in rivers or hydrological drought in the vegetation period (April-September) is particularly hazardous, especially in spring and early summer. According to data from the Scientific Information Centre of the Interstate Commission on Water Coordination (ICWC), water volumes at Toktogul and Nurek ended last year some 20% and 9% below historical averages, respectively. These low levels raise uncertainties about the availability of irrigated water for agriculture in the “downstream” Central Asian countries (particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) during the spring and summer of 2009 (see UNEP, 2009).

The alternation of extremely dry and wet years is typical for the strongly continental climate of Turkmenistan. The analysis of long-term data shows that light and severe droughts occur in Turkmenistan equally each accounting for 22-30% of the total number of occurrences per year and moderate drought accounts for 41-52%. Concerns about the possible continuation of 2008’s drought conditions have led the US Department of Agriculture to forecast 25% declines for the 2009 winter wheat harvest and Turkmenistan (UNEP, 2009).

The weather-dependence category of Turkmenistan is comparable with those of, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan, but lower than those of Armenia and Georgia, where agriculture accounts for 25 and 30% of GDP, respectively.

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STATUS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES The Turkmenhydromet operates with largely obsolete equipment and lacks access to modern forecasting methods, which limits its capacity to provide the products and services needed by the public and the economy. All of the Turkmenhydromet facilities are in a poor state of repair; there is insufficient qualified staff even to adequately maintain the current network, and inadequate training opportunities. Many users need information that Turkmenhydromet cannot provide at present. Users are often not well informed about NMHS has serious weaknesses such as: a low-density network of weather and gauging stations resulting in inadequate coverage of the high-altitude zone by meteorological observations; an almost complete absence of automated technical facilities, weather radars, and modern technologies and means for remote data processing and telecommunication; and critical conditions of Turkmenhydromet facilities and data archive.

The situation has a negative impact on the quality of observation data and forecasts (especially forecasts of hydrometeorological disasters), on how efficiently public, sector-specific and user needs can be met, and how the country can fulfill its international and regional obligations, including those under the Global Observation System.

ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS When preparing their modernization programs, NMHSs have traditionally focused on the technological aspects of hydrometeorological service development. Such approach aims at improving forecast accuracy and timeliness. However, inadequate interaction with users usually prevents NMHSs from taking into account their actual and especially potential information needs. A complete absence or under development of contacts with users at the modernization package development stage results in a gap between the opportunities and plans of hydrometeorological service provision and understanding of what, how and where NMHS information can be used most efficiently for management decision making in specific sectors of the economy.

This lack of attention to end users’ current and potential understanding of their benefits from better hydrometeorological services during NMHS modernization may further increase information misalignment between a hydrometeorological service and its users. To avoid this, it is essential for NMHSs to build their interaction with users on the basis of modern principles, taking into account users’ interest in NMHS development and demonstrating to them their own and national benefits, including the economic ones.

There are several key factors, which determine the priority, scale and sequence of activities to modernize the National hydrometeorological Service and improve its institutional structure. These include assessment and recognition of the current status and trends in the needs for hydrometeorological information on the part of governmental institutions, users in major producing and nonproducing sectors of the economy, and the population.

The objectives and expected results of user needs assessment are to: (I) identify the causes and factors of poor interaction between NMHS and its users; (II) recommend to NMHS the most efficient way of cooperation with users; and (iii) propose to users how to integrate/apply hydrometeorological information and formulate their needs for it.

User needs for hydrometeorological information in Turkmenistan were assessed in two stages on the basis of review and summarizing of a number of efforts.

First, NMHS experts identified the NMHS development priorities proceeding from the analysis of its current conditions, user needs (as perceived by the NMHS), and knowledge of opportunities provided by modern hydrometeorology. This survey is based on the questionnaire developed during preparation of the National Hydromet Modernization in Russia and further tailored to estimate the economic benefits from the improved quality of hydromet services following the modernization of national meteorological services in the ECA region.

Second, the key users’ needs in hydrometeorological services were assessed in order to prepare recommendations on building Turkmenhydromet’s capacity to provide synoptic/meteorological/hydrological services and information, as well as hydrometeorological hazard and disaster warnings to the national Government, economy and population. The assessment targeted the most significant (in terms of GDP share) industries/sectors that are vulnerable to EHHs and HHs. The user needs assessment was based on a special checklist developed by the World Bank using WMO materials, World Bank earlier studies, and the Questionnaire on Assessment of User Needs in hydrometeorological Information previously used for a survey conducted with the assistance of the regional project Swiss Support to NMHS in the Aral Sea Basin.

These studies identify the following priorities: • Accurate and timely, location specific, warnings of hydrometeorological hazards, including assessments of the impact of hydrometeorological hazards associated with current warning information to mitigation measures • Current hydrometeorological information (real-time) and forecasts (up to 3-days, from 3-15 days, and up to 4-6 months) and climate data (1-month and 1-year periods) of all of the primary hydrometeorological and related environmental indicators. In general all of these products are needed at a much high quality, quantity and more timely than currently available.

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• Historical data on water flow/runoff, precipitation and air temperature events generated for of water flow/runoff, precipitation and air temperature.

• Assessments of changing hydrometeorological hazards associated with climate change and climate variability to support long-term mitigation and adaptation efforts.

• More effective interaction between qualified Turkmenhydromet staff and users through targeted consultations and joint training workshops.

ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES The economic assessment sought to estimate the potential benefits that accrue to business activities in the country from the improved quality (accuracy and timeliness) of the hydrometeorological information and services delivered by Turkmenhydromet following its modernization. The benefits associated with the economic value of hydrometeorological information for the household sector were not assessed given the time and financial constraints. The value of potentially saved lives and reduced injuries was also beyond the scope of the assessment.

The recommendations concerning the technical and technological status of Turkmenhydromet and priorities in upgrading its hydrometeorological service were based on: (i) assessment of the current level of observation and forecasting of weather hazards, and the warnings for the population and economy of the country; (ii) obligations under the international and intergovernmental agreements and treaties of Turkmenistan; (iii) analysis of the performance of the current international projects for rendering assistance to NMHS; (iv) needs of the national economic sectors in hydrometeorological service provision; and (v) analysis of the current NMHS status and opportunities to support the operational system.

Two modernization options were considered while elaborating recommendations for Turkmenhydromet. The Large scale investment program option (USD30.0 million), that will help to upgrade Turkmenhydromet capacity to fairly good level is offered as the basic option in the assessment of economic benefits of investing in the Turkmenhydromet modernization. It is expected that the basic option will be implemented within 4 years with maximum inflow of investments during third and fourth years of program implementation.

There are a number of complexities in the assessment of economic benefits for Turkmenistan even more complicated and scarce to that observed in the other countries of ECA region where the team has undertaken economic review of weather related damages. The main concern is the absence of systematic recording of damage/losses (both in physical and value terms) incurred by the economy, its sectors and population from the entire range of EHHs and HHs, the team experienced difficulties in applying several complementary approaches to double check data and ensure the integrity of the results, due you the lack of interagency information exchange and information disclosure issues. Very often sectoral experts reported about the complete absence of the required data on records and economic assessment of losses in their sectors due to the lack of interest and guiding documentation (statistical methodology) in sectoral decision-making process.

The economic efficacy of investing in the Turkmenhydromet modernization was assessed on the basis of the benchmarking, and some estimates from meteorological risk assessment where proxy data was available and seemed to be reliable. The cost/benefit analysis was also conducted by applying the data on average annual losses calculated through the benchmarking assessments.

Benchmarking is used to determine the level of annual direct economic losses and the level of annual preventable losses, which can be used to calculate the marginal efficacy of a potential improvement of services following the modernization of the NMHS. The benchmark results indicate that the average annual amount of direct damage associated with hydrometeorological phenomena was about USD42 million or 0.57% of annual average GDP. The estimated annual economic benefit of the proposed modernization program is about USD17.7 million. This means that within 7 years, the economic benefit of the modernization would be about USD124 million. The corresponding economic efficacy of the investment in the modernization over 7 years would be about 413%.

Turkmenistan could get an even higher actual economic benefit from implementing the Program as the above appraisal has not taken into account some other components of an economic effect from the Program implementation, such as improving the operation of households. Additionally, upgrading the system of forecasting and warning of any hazardous hydrometeorological events would contribute to improving the living standards of local residents, especially within the areas affected by floods and mudflows, to securing the transport safety, especially the safety of aircraft, off-shore hydrocarbons extraction, marine transport & pipeline transport, and to resolving any tasks in the area of environmental safety. Therefore, the obtained value may be considered a “lower bound”: actual economic benefits may be much larger.

PROPOSED MODERNIZATION OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES Modernization of Turkmenistan NHMS is primarily aimed at reducing the risks to human lives and economy as a result of weather and climate phenomena. Efforts to achieve the above objectives include modernization and technical upgrading of the

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NHMS, and implementation of activities to optimize the institutional structure, improve the scientific and methodological basis, provide professional upgrading of the staff, and establish quality control of hydrometeorological data.

As a result of project implementation the national and regional public authorities, sector ministries and population of Turkmenistan will receive better weather forecasts and climatic data, which will, in turn, facilitate economic growth and enable to safe human lives by taking the required preventive measures at the national and regional levels.

Performance indicators of the proposed project include at least 10-fold increase in the amount of meteorological data and products obtained from various sources, restored system of marine observations in the Caspian Sea coastal region and temperature-wind atmosphere sounding sites, improved measurement accuracy of major meteorological parameters, increased accuracy of weather forecasts (by 6-8% for daily forecasts and by 15% for 3-7 day ones), improved system of measurement data transition within Turkmenistan, saving of the national fund of hydrometeorological data, improved accuracy of stream flow measurements on the Amu Darya River and Kara Kum Canal, transfer to an improved model of Turkmenhydromet operations. The latter task requires institutional changes, improvements in the scientific and technical base of the NHMS and strengthening of technical capacity through implementing advances working methods, staff professional upgrading and strengthening of the financial status of Turkmenhydromet.

Investment options were selected on the basis of the following considerations. First, it is required to create conditions for Turkmenhydromet to perform major functions on hydrometeorological support of economic development. Second, Turkmenhydromet’ capacity to produce timely forecasts of unfavorable and hazardous weather events must be restored and improved. Third, it is required to strengthen the institutional and management structure, improve staff qualification and ensure financial and economic sustainability of Turkmenhydromet. Fourth, efforts should be made to ensure fulfillment by Turkmenistan of its international obligations under WMO membership, as well as other international agreements both in terms of the qualitative and quantitative components of produced observational data.

Financial sustainability of project outcomes will depend on the proper functioning and maintenance of Turkmenhydromet infrastructure – both the existing and newly established one. Above all, it should be emphasized that, despite the evident shortage of funds, the Service has managed to maintain its functioning during the recent years though it had to overcome considerable difficulties related to the lack of measuring instrumentation, expendables, spare parts and materials. As a result, a considerable part of equipment remained operative not only till the end of service life but much longer. However, one has to note that the NHMS had to reduce the program of observations which in turn had an impact on the quality of observational data.

Reliable operation of equipment and systems will be ensured in case Turkmenhydromet is able to systematically follow the principles of service life management, including the replacement of equipment upon expiration of the designed service life.

When developing scenarios of reorganization and transfer to the improved performance model, it is recommended to consider the following changes aimed at improving management efficiency and quality of hydrometeorological services provided to public authorities and economic entities: • Reorganize the structure of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology in Ashgabat to separate administrative and operational functions in the central office, establish departments responsible for network management and scientific/methodological support, and a department performing organization of hydrometeorological services to users and management of the observational network in Akhal velayat (region); • Strengthen velayat (regional) HMC as major providers of services to regional users and individual economic entities, and centers of data collection from the observational network and dissemination (making available to users) of hydrometeorological information and products; • Divest aviation meteorological centers (AMCG) of the task to collect data from the observational network, removing them from the structure of velayat HMC and transferring under the management of the Aviation Meteorological Center in Ashgabat; • Consider project proposals to equip the Service with modern information technologies for the production and dissemination of information products.

NEXT STEPS Financing of the Action Plan will likely be a combination of governmental funds, concessional financing from international financial institutions (IFIs), and international and bilateral donors’ support. The Action Plan will also be an integral part of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (CAREC DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters.

The CAC DRMI incorporates three focus areas: (i) coordination of disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) financing of disaster losses, reconstruction and recovery, and disaster risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. The initiative would be coordinated by World Bank, the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World

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Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the CAREC umbrella. The Initiative will build on the existing cooperation that already exists in the region, and will complement and consolidate activities of the IFIs, the EU, the Council of Europe, the UN agencies, regional cooperation institutions, bilateral donors such as the Swiss Development Cooperation (SDC), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and others to promote more effective disaster mitigation, preparedness and response. It was agreed by donors and international organizations to convene in November 2009 a regional Central Asia Workshop aimed at improvement of hydrometeorological services and early warning systems. It is hoped that specific approaches towards funding commitments as well as regional coordination and implementation modalities will be made during this workshop.

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CHAPTER 1. KEY WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS 1.1. MAIN GEOGRAPHICAL AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS1 Turkmenistan is located in south-western part of Central Asia between 35°08’ and 42°48’ of northern latitude and 52°27’ and 66°41’ of eastern longitude, bordering in the north and north-east with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in the south and southeast with Iran and Afghanistan. The Caspian Sea is Turkmenistan’s western boundary with a 1,768 km long coastline (see Figure 1.1).

The territory of Turkmenistan stretches for 1,110 km from west to east and 650 km from north to south. The area is 491.2 thousand sq. km (almost all of which is land surface), making it the second largest country in Central Asia, after Kazakhstan.

Topography of the country is highly diverse. Turkmenistan’s average elevation is 100 to 220 meters above sea level, with its highest point being Mount Ayrybaba (3,137 meters) in the Kugitang Range of the Pamir-Alay chain in the far east, and its lowest point in the Transcaspian Depression (100-110 meters below sea level). Nearly 80 percent of the republic lies within the Turon Depression, which slopes from south to north and from east to west.

A dominant feature of the republic’s landscape is the Kara Kum Desert, which stretches from the northern to the southern border and occupies about 350,000 square kilometers. Shifting winds create desert mountains that range from two to twenty meters in height and may be several kilometers in length. Chains of such structures are common, as are steep elevations and smooth, concrete-like clay deposits formed by the rapid evaporation of flood waters in the same area for a number of years. Large marshy salt flats, formed by capillary action in the soil, exist in many depressions, including the Kara Shor, which occupies 1,500 square kilometers in the north-west. The Sundukly Desert west of the Amu Darya is the southernmost extremity of the Qizilqum (Russian spelling Kyzyl Kum) Desert, most of which lies in Uzbekistan to the north-east.

Turkmenistan’s mountains include 600 kilometers of the northern reaches of the Kopetdag Range, which it shares with Iran.

The Kopetdag Range is a region characterized by foothills, dry and sandy slopes, mountain plateaus, and steep ravines. The Kopetdag Range is undergoing tectonic transformation, meaning that the region is threatened by earthquakes such as the one that destroyed Ashgabat in 1948 and registered nine on the Richter Scale.

Piedmont areas with insignificant snowcapped mountain peaks occupy the eastern and south-eastern parts of the country. Rock masses in the south, south-east and east have some impact on planetary scale aerial currents, and provide a natural barrier to humid air masses coming from the south-east. From north and north-west the country is open to western, north-western and northern intrusions of humid cold air that define the weather regime over the Turkmenistan territory. When approaching the mountains, the fronts coming from north and north-west slow down often generating wave disturbances. Along the mountain foothills is a belt of oases, which are fed by mountain streams.

Turkmenistan has a continental and extremely arid climate. Mean annual temperatures in Turkmenistan are positive except in northern areas. Summers are long (from May through September), hot, and dry, while winters generally are mild and dry, although occasionally cold and damp in the north. Average winter temperatures in January vary from +2-3°С in the south to –3-4°С in the north. Winter thawing occurs over the whole Turkmenistan territory. The absolute winter temperature minimum in some days is between -30 and -36°С. July is the hottest month (August in northern areas). Average air temperatures in July over the flatland are up 28°С in the north and 32°С in the south. The absolute air temperature maximum over the most of the territory is between +42 and +45°С reaching +48°С in the desert area. Wide ranges of air temperature are common, which is characteristic of a continental climate.

The largest amount of precipitation (about 250 mm) during the cold season (October – May) occurs in piedmont areas with an uneven annual distribution of monthly precipitation in the central desert area. Turkmenistan’s location in subtropical latitudes (35-43° N) defines high levels of solar radiation influx over its territory. The largest amount of solar energy in Turkmenistan occurs during June-August. A long length of sunlight is typical for Turkmenistan: as an average in the east, the Center and south east of Karakum Desert it reaches 2800-3095 hours. In the north, an average year of sunlight constitutes 2940-2970 hours.

The average wind pattern is defined by local barometric circulation conditions, and changes significantly with the transition from warm season to the cold one. During the warm season, the predominant air currents are determined by the south-western edge of the Siberian anticyclone. In the cold season, the wind pattern depends on the weak barometric depression that forms over Turkmenistan during this period. In the desert area, north-easterly and easterly winds predominate in winter, making up 38% of the total number of observations in other that zero wind conditions. North-westerly winds (up to 50%), combined with low recurrence of winds of other directions, are typical of the desert and partially for the piedmont areas. In western Turkmenistan easterly and south-easterly winds are noted with no marked predominance of any specific direction, which is related to the weakening of the Siberian anticyclone and frequent incursions of cyclones from the southern Caspian region and from the north-west.

The wind pattern in Turkmenistan changes dramatically during the warm season when air masses from extreme northern latitudes intrude to central areas of the country. Under these conditions north-westerly, northerly and north-easterly winds dominate (with their 35-55% recurrence in July).

1

This section is based on background materials prepared by the Turkmenhydromet experts (Ergashov, M., 2005; Boltayev, D., 2008a and 2008b).

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Fig. 1.1: Map of Turkmenistan

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Local winds are observed in summer in mountains and sea coastal areas. On-shore winds occur at the Caspian Sea coast.

Mountain winds are noted after the sunset and last until sunrise. Winds blowing from the valley towards the mountains dominate in the daytime. Fohn winds are noted in the piedmont area. Winds caused by local cyclonic conditions formed by the mountains are also observed. Near Kyzyl Avrat, easterly winds dominate in winter, their intensity sometimes approaching that of hurricane (up to 45 ms-1).

Water resources are scant in Turkmenistan. Almost 80 percent of the territory of Turkmenistan lacks a constant source of surface water flow, and extensive canal systems are crucial for irrigation and drinking water supplies from external sources.

The main rivers of Turkmenistan are located only in the southern and eastern peripheries; a few smaller rivers on the northern slopes of the Kopetdag are diverted entirely to irrigation. Total amount of the surface water produced internally is about 1 billion cm/year. The major source of water supplies is the Amu Darya River, which has a total length of 2,540 kilometers from its farthest tributary, making it the longest river in Central Asia. The Amu Darya originates in the mountainous Pamir’s region of Tajikistan east of Turkmenistan and forms part of the country’s border with Uzbekistan. The river’s average annual flow is 1,940 cm per second.

The Amu Darya River inflow supplies more than 90 percent of the water for all sectors of Turkmen economy. Annual amount of surface water renewable resources secured through treaties compounds 23.4 billion cm2. Other major rivers are the Tejen (1,124 kilometers); the Murgab (852 kilometers); and the Atrek (660 kilometers). Water from the Amu Darya and the Murgab is diverted into the Karakum Canal (built during the Soviet period) to supply water to the arid southern portions of Turkmenistan.

Box 1.1 Climatic Regimes in Turkmenistan Semi-desert climatic zone.

Mean annual temperature equals 15.6оС. Annual amount of precipitation varies from 180 to 250 mm. Cold season precipitation (8595% of the annual amount) prevail in this zone. The western part of the zone is affected by Atlantic, Black Sea and Caspian cyclones while the eastern part is usually influenced by southern cyclones (South Caspian, Murghab and Upper Amu Darya). The central part is subject to the influence of north-western and northern cold invasions and dry masses of Arctic air.

A high-pressure belt is located over the semi-desert zone during the cold season, which is associated with fair and lowwind weather. At the same time, frequent cold air outbreaks cause increased winds and cloud amount.

Average air temperatures in January range from –1.6° in the west to 1.1° in the east, short-term temperature falls are possible to –28° in the east and to –35° in the north, as well as temperature increases to +12°-16°. In summer, where the average July temperature is 31.4° temperature frequently reach +40-45°. Droughts, hot winds and dry weather conditions occur frequently in the semi-desert zone.

Desert climatic zone.

A desert zone occupies the most part of Turkmenistan territory (about 80%) and includes three major types of deserts: clay, sandy and rocky.

The zone is characterized by highly continental climate and low moisture content. Yearly evaporation rate exceeds precipitation amount by a factor of 10 or more, and by 20 to 70 times during the three summer months. Mean annual temperature rises up to 16.5° while the amount of precipitation decreases to 90-130 mm per year.

The climate in this zone is generally noted for a long hot summer, rather cold winter for these latitudes, large annual and daily temperature variations, dry air and small cloud amount.

During the warm season, active transformational drying and heating of incoming air masses are observed leading to the formation of local continental tropical air. The winds of predominantly north-easterly direction are weak with high recurrence of calm conditions. The daily wind pattern is typically continental: calm conditions dominate in the evenings and at night, in the daytime the wind increases reaching maximum strength in the afternoon hours.

January is the coldest winter month with average temperatures ranging from –3.2 to –4.8°С. At the same time, even during the coldest winter months, temperatures can occasionally reach +12-22°C. The total amount of precipitation during the cold season makes up 6084% of the annual amount. The passage of cold fronts is usually accompanied by dust storms.

Anomalously high summer air temperatures are related to the development of thermal depressions. The warm season is noted for frequent droughts occurring during hot winds, moderately dry and dry weather conditions.

Winter is characterized by high weather instability and variability, especially in the northern part of the zone where frequent changes of positive and negative temperatures are observed.

Summer in the desert zone is long, hot and dry with weather being stable and noted for dryness, dustiness, lack of clouds, and large daily variations of air and soil temperatures. In the daytime, the soil surface may warm up to 78° while at nights during invasions it can occasionally drop down to 0°.

Mountain and piedmont areas.

Mountain and piedmont areas in Turkmenistan demonstrate a marked vertical variation in climate. The change of vertical climatic zones occurs in the same way as that of horizontal ones.

2

For all types of water resources are given FAO estimates as of 2007 (Aquastat database, 2009) .

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Within the country, water is distributed by an extensive network of irrigation canals totaling more than 30,000 km in length, the majority of which are open and unlined.

Groundwater resources cannot be fully utilized since most of the aquifers are relatively deep and remote from the main agricultural consumption areas making the costs of extraction and conveyance prohibitive. The amount of groundwater presently utilized is very low (some 0.36 1 billion m3/year).

The majority of the lakes in the country are salty. The Caspian Sea forms Turkmenistan’s entire western border. Yaskhan and Topiatan located in the Uzboya valley are the fresh water lakes. In the mountains there are the lakes of karst origin Kouata (in the Bakharden cave) and Khordjunly (in the Kugitangtau).

Ashgabat (the capital of Turkmenistan) is located in the southern part of the country. Turkmenistan is divided into five administrative regions (velayats): Ahal, Balkan, Lebap, Mary and Dashogus each consisting of several districts (etraps). The main sea port of Turkmenistan is Turkmenbashi (former Krasnovodsk) on the Caspian Sea.

1.2. WEATHHR AND CLIMATE RISKS AND THHIR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 1.2.1. WEATHHR, CLIMATE AND WATER HAZARDS: CLASSIFICATION, CLIMATOLOGY AND IMPACTS A standard classification of hydrometeorological events and unfavorable weather conditions by intensity and impact on the economy and population is used in Turkmenistan. By these criteria extreme (high impact) hydrometeorological hazards (EHHs), including hydrometeorological disasters, and hydrometeorological hazards (HHs) are identified. A list and description of major EHHs and HHs, which observed in Turkmenistan and monitored and forecast by Turkmenhydromet are is given in Annex I. Most of the EHH/HHs criteria essentially remained unchanged since Soviet times (up to 1990). In view of Turkmenhydromet experts, those criteria should be further developed with due regard for local nature/climate peculiarities and economic conditions.

Turkmenistan territory is noted for diverse climate conditions and uneven economic development; therefore, the spatial scale of hazardous weather events and conditions should be also taken into account, as they can cause economic damage of the local, territorial or regional level. Thus, according to the official criterion (see Gidrometeoizdat, 1972) defining high air temperature as hydrometeorological hazard the one lasting for at least ten days with temperature above 45о С, is unjustified. Such conditions rarely occur even in Central Asian countries. According to modern standards, given that increased air humidity raises the heat load on a human organism, air temperature above 40о С should be considered as hazardous event regardless of the duration period.

Over 18 types of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena occur in the country every year. They include: high and low air temperatures, droughts, frosts, strong wind, dust storms, snowdrifts on roads, heavy precipitation, floods, high water, mudflows, Ice jam on rivers, storm surge at the Caspian Sea, dense fogs and etc., that impose damages to the national economy and industry.

Turkmenhydromet carries out collection, maintenance and storage of data on hydrometeorological hazardous events and unfavorable weather conditions causing economic damage.

Historical records on specific types of EHHs and HHs are incomplete. Database is stored in hard copies and updated as appropriate. No zoning (mapping) of climatic recurrence of the above events has been carried out. However, observational data enable identification of the areas of frequent occurrence of these events. Frosts occur over the entire territory, except southern areas. Dust storms occur in the Central Kara Kum Desert, northern and central flat areas in Balkan velayat, central and northern areas in Akhal and Mary velayats, south-eastern areas in Lebap velayat. Droughts occur in Dashoguz velayat, Kara Kum Desert, northern areas of Balkan, Akhal and Mary velayats. Heavy precipitation occurs in the piedmont and southern areas. Floods occur along the whole length of the Amy Darya River, and short duration rainfall flooding occurs in floodplains of small rivers – Murgab, Tedzhen, Atrek and Sumbar.

Floods and mudflows. Floods and mudflows often occur in mountain basins of small rivers flowing down from south-western, north-western and north-eastern slopes along the Kopet Dag, and more rarely from mountain slopes of the Big and Small Balkhana. The greatest flood and mudflow activity is noted in rivers Murgab, Tedzhen, Firyuzinka, Sumbar, Atrek, Sekizyap, their channels and some shallow gullies. Rainstorms are the main factor of mudflow generation in Turkmenistan. Intensive snow melting only occasionally can cause floods or mudflow. Short destructive floods and mudflows frequently occur in mountain and piedmont areas in spring. Mudflows cause enormous damage to populated areas and economy. They wash out crops, destroy dams and irrigation facilities, take off bridges, and erode unpaved roads, highways and railways.

Strong wind. Strong winds represent one of the most widespread hazardous weather events in Turkmenistan. The wind is considered strong if the wind speed exceeds 15 m/s. The speed equal to 20 m/s is a criterion of a hazardous event, and 30 m/s – that of a particularly hazardous one. Strong wind damages buildings and industrial facilities, complicates all kinds of traffic, destroys crops and trees. Strong winds are classified into local and front ones. Local winds occur in specific geographical areas.

Front winds occur at the interface of two macrosynoptical formations, i.e., are related to atmospheric fronts.

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Dust storms. Dust storms usually start at the wind speed 8-12 m/s, and cause significant deterioration of visibility. Vast masses of sand in the Kara Kum Desert at strong wind facilitate dust storms that occur in Turkmenistan all year round. The largest number of days with dust storms is noted in Central Kara Kun Desert and Kopet Dag piedmont areas where the storms are predominantly caused by cold intrusions and south-western periphery of the Siberian anticyclone. The highest recurrence of dust storms is observed in the Central and partially South-eastern Kara Kum areas, eastern part of the country and south-eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. Droughts. Drought is one of the major natural disasters. So far there are no reliable drought forecasts. Agricultural meteorology widely uses various techniques and approaches to identify the onset of droughts. Major meteorological indices for drought evaluation include the amount of precipitation, air temperature, vaporability and heat balance. Reduced productivity of agricultural crops is an agronomical drought indicator. Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) is one of the commonly used drought indicator in agrometeorology in the FSU. If HTC < 1, the period is considered droughty, and HTC < 0.4 means that a very strong drought has occurred. Dryness criteria for Turkmenistan, with due regard for climate peculiarities, are defined as follows: 0.6 and more – weak drought, 0.6–0.4 – strong drought, 0.4 and less – severe drought. The probability of a drought in Turkmenistan is of 50-75 %.

Damage to agriculture caused by droughts is rather significant. In drought years the yield on dry (boghara) land comes down up to 20-40 %. Though the influence of drought in irrigated regions is mitigated, the agricultural crop capacity decreases up to 30 %.

Droughts represent a critical problem for Turkmenistan since 80% of the country is occupied by the Kara Kum Desert. Successful operation of cattle-breeding farms directly depends on pasture productivity defined by climate conditions of the territory. Dependence of pasture vegetation on droughts is more evident. In drought years the simultaneous influence of the soil and atmospheric droughts accelerates withering of pasture vegetation by 15-20 days, and its crop capacity decreases (Table 1.1).

In dry years grasslands burn out in the sun before multi-year terms, and productivity of pasture vegetation may reduce by 5070%. Severe droughts occurred in 2000 and 2001 caused considerable reduction in pasture grass productivity. In 2000, desert pasture productivity made up 40-70%, and in 2001 – 43-58% of the multi-year norm.

Table 1.1 Recurrence of droughts of different intensity and duration in Turkmenistan .

Meteorological station

Chelecen Ashgabat Bairamali Gushgy Repetek Turkmenabat

Number Years Recurrence, of years of with % observation droughts

72 93 95 57 60 90

41 45 57 33 30 60

55 48 60 58 50 67

Years with droughts Normal Medium Strong Very strong Intensity 32 42 44 23 22 48

1 9 7 7 3 6

3 1 2 3 2 3

5 3 4 3 3

Duration of droughts, months 2 3 4 5 >5

4 8 5 9 8 4

1 2 2 2 1 1

0 0 2 1 2 4

1 1 2

2 2 2 2 2

Source: Ministry of Nature Protection of Turkmenistan. 2000. R E P O R T on implementation of the UNCCD in Turkmenistan. Ministry of Nature Protection of Turkmenistan. National Institute of Deserts, Flora and Fauna. Ashgabat.

Dry winds. Dry wind is a particular case of an atmospheric drought complicated by wind. Dry winds frequently cause very significant damage to the national economy. For example, cotton plant just once exposed to a strong dry wind may lose up to 6080% of their blossoms. Weak dry winds annually occur throughout the whole country territory. Strong dry winds are observed in south-eastern, southern and south-western areas. Severe dry winds are noted only near Tagtabazar and Koitendag (Charshanga).

Air humidity deficit at 1 p.m. is usually taken as a dry wind criterion. Dry wind weather conditions occur if the air humidity deficit at 1 p.m. amounts to 50 Mb; at 60-90 Mb a strong dry wind may occur, and if the air humidity deficit exceeds 90 Mb it means that a severe dry wind is possible.

Frosts (spring and autumn). Frosts occur when air or ground temperature falls below 0°С during the vegetation period at the background of positive daily average air temperatures. Frost information is, above all, required to evaluate frost susceptibility of the area, calculate the timing of sowing, decide on the appropriate location of the most heat-loving crops, perform agricultural and climate assessment of agricultural crop growing in spring and autumn seasons. Spring and autumn frosts annually occur in Turkmenistan creating unfavorable conditions for the growth and development of agricultural crops, and often restricting the utilization of climatic resources in vegetation period. In some years frosts cause considerable damage to agriculture reducing yields in certain areas.

Spring frosts. Late spring ground frosts are considered more significant that air frosts in terms of their potential adverse impact on agricultural crops. Spring frosts have radiation character and occur at the background of rather high daytime temperatures.

They can destruct shoots of heat-loving crops including cotton, as well as seedlings of vegetable crops planted in ground. Spring ground frosts usually terminate 5-15 days later than air frosts. According to multi-year observations, spring ground frosts stop in northern areas on April 10-12, in western, central and piedmont areas – on March 25, and in eastern areas – on March 20.

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Autumn frosts. First autumn frosts are a signal of further temperature decrease. The crops, having more or less safely survived the first wave of cold, further suffer the second, then the third ones, etc. and finally die or lose their yield. The latest dates of first autumn air frosts (early December) are noted at the south-eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. Autumn frosts in mountain and piedmont areas at altitudes 400-500 m usually occur on November 15, and in northern areas – in early December. Ground frosts occur about 10-15 days earlier than air frosts.

Heavy rainfall. Rainfall of 12 mm and more within less than 12 hours is considered as significant precipitation and refers to hazardous weather events. In case more than 30 mm of rain fall within the same period the event is considered as especially hazardous. Long incessant rains and short-term rainstorms cause congested traffic, erosion of roads, flooding of foundation ditches and basements. In addition, they cause mudflows. One should note that in some cases incessant rains may become a factor of special hazard and cause catastrophic damage to many sector of economy.

The probability of heavy rainfall in Turkmenistan is very low and makes up only 1-6% of the total number of days with precipitation. However, damage caused by such precipitation within a short time period often amounts to catastrophic level.

Extreme heat. Based on the requirements of economic entities, air temperature exceeding 40о С regardless of duration of occurrence should be considered as a hazardous event. The zone of unfavorable heat conditions encompasses the whole Turkmenistan territory except the mountain, far northern and Caspian coast areas. The highest temperature zone where the absolute temperature maximum exceeds 45о С is located along the upper Amu Darya river stream, including the central and south-eastern part of the Kara Kum Desert, as well as in southern areas. For example, absolute temperature maximums were noted in 1944 in Repetek (50.0о С) and in 1958 in Tagtabazar (47.7оС).

High temperatures cause a very large damage to agriculture. Hot and dry summer air burns the plants causing falloff of ovary on cotton and fruittrees. Recurrent hot temperature days represent a special risk to the economy. The impact of high temperatures (above 45° С) during several days may reduce cotton productivity by 10-30%. The annual number of days with high air temperature (above 45° С) ranges from 14 to 50.

Severe frosts. In Turkmenistan, air temperature below -10оС and lower refer to hazardous weather conditions; and when the lowest temperature of -25о С and below persists for 5 days and longer it is considered an especially hazardous event. At temperatures below 25о С many subtropical crops such as orange, mandarin, fig, pomegranate, walnut, grapes, etc. die or froze down to roots. Severe cold (below -25о С) causes death of animals at pastures. Low temperatures significantly impede the operation of main gas and oil pipelines, motor and railway transport, as well as communal facilities. The annual number of days with low air temperature (below -10° С) ranges from 0 to 34.

Heavy snowfall. The distribution pattern of solid precipitation is highly inhomogeneous. The highest recurrence is observed in northern, north-eastern and piedmont areas. Recurrence of significant solid precipitation is the highest in Dashoguz velayat, south-eastern part, mountain and piedmont areas. Large masses of snow accumulated on the peaks of the Kopet Dag ridge during abrupt rises of air temperature in spring create the risk of floods and mudflows causing significant damage to dams, populated areas, agricultural crops and power lines.

Heavy hail. Hail causes considerable damage to agriculture. The amount of damage depends on the size of hailstones, their density, deposition intensity, as well as on the type agricultural crops. Although hailing is a rare and short-term event, it may cause enormous damage to the affected area within a short time period. Hails with the size of hailstones ranging from 5 to 30 mm are observed in Turkmenistan. 6-8 mm hailstones may damage cotton and vegetable shoots, and those over 10 mm – sunflower, corn and orchards. Hails with hailstones of 30 mm and more cause significant damage to everything located in the open. The highest recurrence of hails in noted in piedmont areas along the Kopet Dag ridge.

Dust cyclone. Apart from local dust storms, catastrophic dust storms – dust cyclones – intrude in the country every 8-15 years along the line of Baghdad – Teheran – Kopet Dag – Ashgabat – South-eastern Kara Kum Desert transporting vast amounts of loamy dust from Arabian and Iranian deserts. The amount of dust deposited on the ground after a dust cyclone makes up 6-30 tons per hectare. Dust cyclones are usually accompanied with squally winds, hail and heavy rainstorms causing catastrophic destruction within the passage area.

Box 1.2 gives examples of extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events (EHHs and HHMEs) experienced in Turkmenistan. These examples show to what extent the economy and population of Turkmenistan are exposed to the unfavorable weather impact and what damage they have to suffer.

Box 1.2 Examples of extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events that caused significant economic losses to the economy of Turkmenistan.

On 20 September 1995 a dust storm with wind speeds of 30-32 m/s was experienced in Kopetdag and Ashgabat. In Ashgabat it uprooted hundreds of trees, crashed power line poles and tree trunks, broke power line cables, ruined roofs of many houses and damaged some industrial and engineering facilities. The depth of dust deposit was 4-6 mm amounting to 58 tons per hectare.

On 2 July 2005 a snowtriggered flood occurred on the Amu-Darya (Atamurat and Turkmenabat cities). Water discharge amounted to 7000 m3/s. It broke the first order dam, submerged floodplains, cotton and rice fields and resulted in deigish (strong washing away of banks). Economic losses were estimated at 176 billion manat.

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On 9 February in the Geokdepe region a hurricane wind reached the speed of 29-33 m/s. It ruined 20 km of power lines, tumbled 31 VL-220 kW LVK-1 ferroconcrete poles and tore off roofs of 28 houses.

On 20 May 2007 a snowmelt flood occurred on Amy-Darya (Atamurat and Turkmenabat cities). Water level reached 286 cm, water discharge – 4080 m3/s. Water flooded a floodplain, crop areas, cucurbits, rice and cotton fields.

In January 2008 due to extended severe colds in the eastern regions of the country (rare for the particular region – down to minus 270C) Amudarya River was frozen – this caused the river’s water level to rise and created a threat of floods and possible failure of hydro-technical constructions. Those conditions have created Ice blockades on the Amudarya River also caused destruction of a pontoon-bridge, used for transportation of cargoes from China, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan through the territory of Turkmenistan, to Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Russia.

On 2021 February 2008 strong winds were recorded in several regions of Turkmenistan: Cumbar – 17 m/s, Syrayazy – 12 m/s, Mary – 20 m/s, Y-Ashlyk – 18 m/s, Anev – 19 m/s, Birata – 12 m/s. Economic losses suffered by the energy sector of Turkmenistan alone amounted to 1 billion 33 million manat.

Source: Turkmenhydromet.

For the purpose of this study Turkmenhydromet conducted experts’ ranking of EHHs and HHs observed in Turkmenistan, involving experienced meteorologists, hydrologists, weather forecasters, agricultural meteorologists and other experts. The following major parameters of these events were taken into account: recurrence frequency, intensity, spatial extent, as well as potential economic and social damage. Table 1.2 presents the ranking list of EHHs and HHs in descending order of their damaging impacts along with number of their occurrence during 1985-2007.

Table 1.2 Frequency of occurrence of hydrometeorological hazards in Turkmenistanin 1985-2005 by types of events Type of event 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Floods and mudflows Strong wind, hurricane, squall Dust storms Drought Dry hot winds Spring frosts Autumn frosts Heavy rainfall Extreme heat Severe frost Heavy snowfall Strong hail Dust cyclone Total

1985-2007

1986-1995

1996-2007

50 2618 505 14 712 131 97 192 736 99 21 26 2

16 1326 215 5 310 63 61 76 298 41 6 15 1

34 1292 290 9 402 68 36 116 438 58 15 11 1

1699

759

676

Source: Turkmenhydromet The data above demonstrates growth of number of occurrences EHHs/HHs, such as mudflows and floods, heavy rainfalls, dust storms, droughts, dry hot winds, high and low temperatures. It stems, interim, from the changes in precipitation patterns observed recently. The changes of observed multi-year total precipitation data (by intensity) from Ashgabat station for 1980-2007 are shown on Fig. 1.2.

With no significant changes in total annual precipitation, changes of its pattern are obvious: heavy precipitation has been increasing significantly though low precipitation almost has not changed, and amount of moderate precipitation has been even constantly decreasing during the considered period. The linear trend drawn in the diagram of extreme precipitation values occurred during the same period (Figure 1.3) shows that starting from 1995, the extreme value of total precipitation and the deviation of values have been increasing. This confirms the observation that though the amount of precipitation gradually decreases, their intensity is increasing, and, therefore, they become more hazardous.

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Figure 1.2: Total precipitation by intensity in 1980-2007 in mm/year (Ashgabat meteorological station)

Figure 1.3: Observed extreme precipitation in 1980-2007, mm/day (Ashgabat meteorological station))

1.2.2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DAMAGE ESTIMATES METHOD OF ESTIMATES Socio-economic impacts of meteorological risks (in the aggregate and by types of EHHs and HHs) were intended to be estimated on the basis of the integration of losses suffered by the economy from specific hydrometeorological events (e.g. by mudflows and floods, strong wind, etc).

Two parameters are used to estimate the meteorological risk of impact of certain events on the economy: (i) hazard of event impact (or its climate frequency/frequency of its occurrence); (ii) vulnerability to event impact (an absolute value of economic losses caused by the event in case of both correct and incorrect forecasts/warnings Economic damage caused by hydrometeorological hazards is estimated in two stages. At the first stage climate hazard of impact of different events (their climate frequency) was estimated on the basis of climate data. At the second stage vulnerability of the economy to impact of specific HHs and EHHs was estimated.

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SOURCES OF INFORMATION Statistical data on economic losses due to EHHs/HHs is not available, and most likely is absent due to the lack of guidelines and/or official methodology. Inspection of emergency site is conducted under coordination of Commission for Emergency situation. In case of hydrometeorological emergencies joint commissions comprising representatives of Turkmenhydromet’s hydrometeorological center and other concerned ministries and agencies are established to review consequences and define the resultant damage. During emergency site visits commission members perform visual inspection of the site, locate and quantify damages, for example suffered by power and communication lines, buildings and residential houses. The identified destructions are recorded by commission members mainly in terms of a qualitative assessment, e.g. “Hurricane tore away house roofs, fell down hundreds trees, telephone and power line poles. Thickness of deposited dust over 6 mm”. In some cases losses are registered in physical units: “20 km of power line destroyed. 31 reinforced concrete supports VL-220 kW LKW-1 thrown down. Roofs torn away from 28 houses”.

Turkmenhydromet experts were in contact with the Department of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations of the Ministry of Defense, but no data on economic losses was provided.

The fragmental estimates of economic losses due to some hydrometeorological emergencies are summarized in the Annexes 3-4. Estimates were obtained by Turkmenhydromet experts through: 1) Compiling available data on value of standard dwelling house, average unit rehabilitation costs for concrete supports of electricity transmission lines, for different types of transformers, hydro-technical structures (dikes, irrigation canalss elements, etc.), unit costs of agricultural crops lost as a result of water logging /flooding.

2) Based on this data, estimates were conducted for hydrometeorological emergencies cases, when the reports of joint emergency commission contained detailed losses registered in physical terms rather specifically. When commission’s reports provided only qualitative description of damages, those losses were compared against the cases supported by data on physical losses with consideration of the hydrometeorological parameters observed prior and during the occurrence of hydrometeorological emergency under review (precipitation data, intensity of water flow in river bed, zone of flood per the records of hydrometeorological observations, etc .)

RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ESTIMATES OF METEOROLOGICAL RISKS ESTIMATE OF CLIMATE HAZARD OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EVENTS A hazard of impact of different events will be considered, as mentioned above, through the climate frequency of their occurrence presented in Figure 1.4 presents recurrence of major EHHs and HHs during 1983-2007. Detailed statistics on the number of specific EHHs and HHs is given in Annex 2.

Fig. 1.4 shows, inter alia, that strong wind (more than 15 m/s), dry hot wind and strong heat (air temperature is higher than 400С) present a considerable hazard in terms of frequency of their occurrence.

Figure 1.4: Average annual frequency of EHHs and HHs occurrence in Turkmenistan.

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The accuracy of forecasts of these events is given in Table 1.3 Table 1.3 Accuracy of forecasts and warnings № 1 2 3 4 5

Accuracy of HH forecasts Floods and mudflows Strong wind Heavy rain Strong heat Severe frost Average value for all HHs

At present time 0,94 0,68 0,45 0,95 0,50 0,70

Note: The Forecasts Department of Turkmenhydromet does not provide forecasts of EHHs with exception of floods and mudflows (0.88), and strong winds (0.5). As for HHs, forecasts are provided only for events presented in the table. The accuracy of forecasts is estimated by the following method: a number of forests – n and a number of accurate forecasts n1. is counted. The accuracy of forecasts – p for each HH is calculated separately for each year (20032007): p = n1/n. After that average values are derived3.

Source: Turkmenhydromet estimates

It is seen from the table that at present the accuracy of HHs forecasts is low (0.7). The statistics on the climate frequency of occurrence and forecast accuracy of the most important HHs shows that the need for the Turkmenhydromet modernization is potentially high.

ESTIMATES OF VULNERABILITY OF THH ECONOMY TO HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS A response of the economy to the impact of weather is manifested in the form of weather related losses suffered by economic entities of different sectors. These losses differ depending on specific features of the entity’s operation and capacity to resist impacts (technologies, resources, protection measures, adequate hydrometeorological information and capability to take appropriate management decisions for the current moment).

The cost estimate (in TMM billion) of the total damage suffered from EHHs and HHs was estimated only for floods and mudflows. It was 2,568 in 2002, 194,691 in 2003, 210,485 in 2004, 185,113 in 2005, 176,075 in 2007. In 2006 due to low water on all rivers of Turkmenistan floods and mudflows reaching criteria of EHHs and HHs were not recorded.

Damage estimates for some other EHHs and HHs, for strong wind in particular, were provided. Therefore, below vulnerability of the economy is estimated only with regard to floods and mudflows, recorded together, and strong wind.

Floods and mudflows are among the most hazardous (in terms of meteorological vulnerability and economic losses) hydrometeorological hazards experienced in Turkmenistan. In view of key parameters of hydrometeorological events into consideration (frequency of occurrence, intensity, area affected and probable economic and social damage) floods and mudflows will rank first (according to the Turkmenhydromet experts). Statistical data on the nuber of floods and mudflows recorded by Turkmenhydromet on the territory of Turkmenistan in the period of 1983-2007 (by years) is given in Annex 2. The statistics shows that in the 27-year period of record 2.1 occurrences of floods and mudflows per year were recorded on the average.

Data in Table 1.2 show that the average annual frequency of occurrence (hazard of impact) of floods and mudflows grows from 1.6 in the period of 1986-1995 to 3.4 in the period of 1996-2007).

In terms of hazard of impact (frequency of occurrence) floods and mudflows rank below such meteorological events as strong wind, dust storms, frosts and heavy rain (see Fig 1.4).

Annex 1.3 gives data on impact of floods and mudflows on the economy and population of Turkmenistan in 1986-2007. Table 1.4 summarizes data on economic estimates of those hydrometeorological phenomena for 2000-2007. The analysis of these data Table 1.4 Floods and mudflows (annual economic losses per occurrence in prices of 2006) Indicators Average economic losses per 1 event : At 2006 prices, TMM billion At 2006 prices, USD million Frequency of occurrence of floods and mudflows

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2.5 0.2

19.2 1.8

64.0 5.9

48.7 4.5

105.2 9.7

61.7 5.7

2006

2007

2000-2007

88.0 8.1

55.2 5.1 2.85

Average annual losses, TMM million (at 2006 prices)

157.4

Average annual losses, USD million (at 2006 prices)

14.5

Source: Turkmenhydromet data and authors’ estimates 3

Forecasts division of the hydrometeorological Center should continue to estimate the accuracy of EHH and HH forecasts so that in the future it would be possible to assess the extent to which the accuracy of EHH and HH forecasts and warnings increased due to modernization and technical upgrading of Turkmenhydromet.

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shows that economic losses suffered from floods and mudflows during this period vary from TMM10 billion (or USD 0.9 million) to TMM256 billion manat (or USD 23 million). This allows average annual economic losses to be estimated in the amount of TMM 55 billion or USD 5.1 million in prices of 2006.

Annual average economic losses of Turkmenistan from floods and mudflows (based on the assessment of average economic losses per one event and frequency of occurrence in 2000-2007 as of 2.85) can be therefore estimated at USD14.5 million in prices 2006 (or about TMM157.4 billion, i.e. some 0.22% of the average annual GDP of the country for the same period).

Frequency of floods and mudflows occurrence (2.85) determines hazard of impact of these events on the economy of the country and average annual economic losses (TMM 157.4 billion) characterize vulnerability of the economy to impact of these events. These two parameters in turn determine the current meteorological risk of impact of floods and mudflows on the economy and population of Turkmenistan.

Strong wind (wind patterns are briefly described in Section 1.1)4 is one of the most commonly encountered meteorological events in Turkmenistan (see Table 1.2). If we take key parameters of hydrometeorological events into consideration (frequency of occurrence, intensity, area affected and probable economic and social damage) strong wind will rank second after floods and mudflows (according to the Turkmenhydromet experts). Statistical data from Table 1.2 show that by frequency of occurrence (hazard of impact) strong wind rank first, and it should be noted that dust storms are also caused by strong wind.

Statistical data on strong wind occurrences (stronger than 15 m/s and stronger than 20 m/s) recorded as HHs and EHHs on the territory of Turkmenistan in the period of 1983-2007 (by years) are given in Annex 2. The statistics shows that in the 25-year period of record there were 28.3 occurrences of wind stronger than 20 m/s and 93.1 occurrences of wind stronger than 15 m/s per year.

Table 1.5 gives examples of types and economic losses associated with recent strong winds emergencies when no warnings were issued.

Table 1.5 Strong wind (maximum economic losses suffered in case of no warning) No 1 2 3 4 5

Date Event 03.08.03 Hurricaneforce wind, 30 m/s 24.02.04 Squall wind, 26-30 m/s 24.02.04 Hurricaneforce wind, 2832 m/s 09.02.06 Hurricaneforce wind, 2933 m/s 04.04.06 Squall wind accompanied by rainstorm

Region Geokdepin region, village of Copetdag village of Geokdepe Archman resort, Baharden etrap Geokdepin region

Size of damage, in TMM million 1 428

Akbugdai (Gyaurs), village of Yashlyk

805

2 360 1 320 1 474

Source: Turkmenhydromet and sectoral expertsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; data

A strong wind hazard is also determined by the fact that normally it is a convective phenomenon (especially in the warm period) occurring locally and due to this its forecasting is difficult. This fact is confirmed by data provided by Turkmenhydromet (see Table 1.3) showing that the accuracy of strong wind (as a HH) is 68%.

Strong wind causes maximum economic losses when the event is not forecasted and no warning is issued. Fragmental data are also available in Annex 3 documenting economic damages in the energy sector.

According to Table 1.5 conservative estimates of annual average losses per one registered emergency caused by strong wind is at the level of USD0.2 million (or TMM1.7 billion) in prices of 2006. It means that when NMHS does not provide forecast/ warning average annual maximum economic losses from impact of strong wind (stronger than 20 m/s) on the economy and population of Turkmenistan can be as high as USD4.5 million (or 49 billion manat) in prices of 2006, i.e. 0.06% of the average annual national GDP. If strong wind as a HH is also considered, economic losses will be significantly higher. Below general assessments of strong wind impact on the economy are given taking into account hydrometeorological services currently available.

Climate frequency of very strong wind (28.3) determines hazard of impact of these events on the economy of the country and average annual economic losses (49 billion manat) characterize vulnerability of the economy to impact of these events. These two parameters in turn determine the current meteorological risk of hurricane strong wind impact on the economy and population of Turkmenistan.

In recent decades extreme weather and climate events in Turkmenistan became more frequent, more intense and longer in duration. Dust storms, floods and mudflows, abrupt temperature changes, droughts, hail and other natural hazards took human lives and undermine the economic development. Turkmenistan continues to be highly vulnerable to environmental damage, particularly

4

In Turkmenistan a wind is assumed to be strong beginning from 15 m/s. Reaching 20 m/s it becomes a HH, reaching 30 m/s it meets the criteria of an EHH. Strong wind leads to physical damage to buildings and industrial structures, complicates all types of traffic and damages crops and trees.

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IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

with regard to fragile, arid ecosystems and limited water resources. Limited water resources, high level of water mineralization, secondary salinization in irrigated land; as well as wind and water erosion in the arid zone are the main causes of the degradation of agricultural land and remain priorities for the government.

1.3. WEATHHR-DEPENDENCE OF ECONOMY In this study weather-dependence of the country’s economy is characterized by the total share of weather-dependent sectors in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As was shown all sectors of the economy are exposed to impact of EHHs and HHs either directly or indirectly. However a degree of impact differs depending on type of activities and technological process of a specific sector as well as on what tools and technologies are used to incorporate hydrometerological forecasts and services into management decision and protection measures.

A list of weather-dependent sectors was determined by the experts of the NHMS of Turkmenistan on the basis of official statistical information and clarified based on the survey among experts from weather-dependant sectors. The list includes agriculture, mining industry (oil & gas operating at the Caspian region, first of all), transport and communication, energy sector, construction (see Table 1.6).

Table 1.6 Share of main weather-dependent sectors in GDP (% of GDP) Sector

2004 18.35

2005 18.25

2006 17.54

Average 18.05

Crude Oil production Natural Gas production Transport and communication Energy Construction Total weather-dependent sectors

3.20 9.15 5.45 0.38 6.03 42.56

3.22 9.97 6.08 0.43 5.53 43.48

1.69 11.86 4.80 0.31 5.12 41.32

2.7 10.33 5.44 0.37 5.56 42.5

Agriculture Extractive industries:

Source: WDI database

An averaged share of main weather-dependent sectors of the Turkmenistan economy in 2004-2006 was 42.5% of the GDP. Taking into account that in this study a lower estimate of economic efficiency of Turkmenhydromet operation is determined, it can be taken as the initial estimate.

Agriculture (18.1% of GDP – an average value for three years) is exposed to weather conditions most of all, and to a considerable extent determines the level of overall losses suffered by the economy. Agriculture ranks first in terms of weather-dependence due to its specific features, i.e. permanent exposure to weather, seasonal character of operations, vast territories and the lack of efficient protection measures against EHHs and HHs. The agricultural production and its plant growing and animal husbandry sectors, first and foremost, are exposed to almost the whole range of extreme and hazardous weather events and conditions over the course of a year. The lack of efficient protection measures is most noticeable when frosts, dry hot wind and drought occur.

More than 45 percent of the labor force employed in the agricultural sector. Cotton is the primary crop, and Turkmenistan is one of the world’s leading producers of the fiber. However, Turkmenistan’s hot, dry climate and scarcity of water resources make cotton production very susceptible to the different hazardous weather events including the drought.

Turkmenistan’s government has encouraged some shift away from cotton cultivation, with the goal of diversifying crops and achieving selfsufficiency in food production. Although the principal food crop is wheat, Turkmenistan must import large quantities of the grain. Other cereal grains, vegetables, and fruit are also grown in the country. Livestock raising is also important, especially of Karakul sheep, horses, and camels. Although the collective (state-run) farms of the Soviet period have been reorganized into farmeroperated associations, the government continues to play dominant role in the sector. For example, it establishes production targets for wheat and cotton harvests and requires farms to supply state orders for those crops at regulated prices.

Since agriculture in Turkmenistan is mostly irrigated, the lack of water in rivers or hydrological drought in the vegetation period (April-September) is extra-hazardous, especially in spring and early summer. According to data from the Scientific Information Centre of the Interstate Commission on Water Coordination (ICWC), water volumes at Toktogul and Nurek ended last year some 20% and 9% below historical averages, respectively. These low levels raise uncertainties about the availability of irrigated water for agriculture in the “downstream” Central Asian countries (particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) during the spring and summer of 2009 (UNEP, 2009).

The alternation of extremely dry and wet years is typical for the strongly continental climate of Turkmenistan. The analysis of long-term data shows that light and severe droughts occur in Turkmenistan equally each accounting for 22-30% of the total number

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IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

of occurrences per year and moderate drought accounts for 41-52%. Concerns about the possible continuation of 2008’s drought conditions have led the US Department of Agriculture to forecast 25% declines for the 2009 winter wheat harvest in Turkmenistan (UNEP, 2009).

Most of the country is uninhabitable desert, only 5 percent of the country’s total land area is cultivated, nearly all of which (23,000 sq km) is irrigated. The population is largely concentrated along the courses of the Amu Darya River and the Karakum Canal which supports the capital Ashgabat. Turkmenistan is almost completely dependent upon water flowing from its upstream neighbors. Hence, water shortage is a key cross-sectoral concern that needs significant efforts to improve water management system. Land degradation comprise waterlogging and especially salinization in agricultural areas due to overirrigation and severe drainage problems—with half of the country’s irrigated lands considered to be in an unsatisfactory state.

Production of natural gas and oil is the cornerstone industry in Turkmenistan (13% of GDP). Hydrocarbon exploitation grounds Turkmenistan’s economic policy, with energy export revenues remaining the pillar for government. According to EIA estimates, total primary energy balance in 2006 amounted to 17,268 ktoe, of which natural gas supplied 71% and crude oil – 29%.

Turkmenistan is the region‘s largest producer of natural gas, with output of 72.3 billion m3 in 20075. Domestic consumption was around 18 billion m3 in 2007. Oil production output is about 9 million tons.

In line with a long-term agreement signed in 2003, Russia is the main importer of Turkmen gas and – if gas and transportation capacity are available – current exports to Russia of around 48 billion cm/y could increase to as much as 70-80 billion cm /y after 2009. Exports along Turkmenistan‘s other current export route through the pipeline that runs from the Korpedzhe field to KurtKui in the North East to Iran (6.2 billion cm in 2007), were interrupted in December 2007 with gas supply being strained by a dispute over pricing and also by exceptionally cold weather. Exports to China along a new pipeline from south-east Turkmenistan are scheduled to begin in 2009/2010 (IEA, 2008).

Technology modernization and extension of the fuel processing industry, development of the infrastructure for selling finished products are the major aspects of the programme on oil and gas industry development6. Since the new processing plants are put into operation, from early 2000 to early 2009 liquefied gas production has increased as much as 15 times and made up 0.3 million tons of liquefied gas a year. Such a rapid increase in productivity required development of transport infrastructure for exporting domestically produced products to foreign markets7.

Energy products, primarily natural gas, are the largest export item. The country also produces important industrial minerals, including gypsum, iodine, bromine, sulfur, and salt. Aside of this the production, industry in Turkmenistan is limited mainly to food processing and textile production.

Energy sector (power and heat supply), contributing about 0.4% 0f GDP is selfsufficient in terms of domestic fuel supply. It has prospects for the increase of electricity exports to the neighbors. Development of distribution network and its safe management is highly dependent on weather conditions considerations under the country’s climate conditions and needs for adequate adaptation measures to climate change.

Transport and communication sector accounts for up to 5.4% of GDP. Access to the Caspian Sea makes Turkmenistan’s transportation situation less difficult than that of other Central Asian republics. Since 2000, substantial work has been done to restore infrastructure, which was in general disrepair, and to extend domestic and transit routes. Major new road and railroad projects are progress.

Construction sector currently contributes more than 5.6% of national GDP. This sector demonstrates fairly high dynamics and, to this end, will need more reliable and comprehensive hydrometeorological information and forecasts for design and construction.

It includes nowcasting, short- and mid-term forecasting and HHs warnings to ensure work safety. Weather extremes projections and impacts of climate change are important for long-term investment projects.

The other weather dependant sector, which is less significant now, but is gaining very rapid growth is tourism, Over USD1 billion will be invested in the unique project that is coordinated by the Committee for Avaza National Tourism Zone established in October 2008. To support development of tourism industry in the Caspian region the extended transportation, energy, engineering and communication infrastructures are under construction. The 7-kilometer artificial river with running sea water to be constructed by Turkish Polimeks and Ichkale will adorn the tourism zone. Pleasure boats will furrow the river with the bridges thrown across. The worldclass airport under construction there will be an important transit point on the air routes from Europe to South and South-eastern Asia. The seaport will be modernized and the national fleet will be replenished with motor ships, yachts, pleasure boats (Turkmenistan: the golden age, 25.05.2009).

5

Natural gas was provided free of charge to residential consumers and is subsidized for industrial use.

In recent years in collaboration with a number of the foreign companies catalytic cracking and reforming units, diesel fuel hydrotreatment plant, lubricating oils and polypropylene production plant, AT-6 raw material atmospheric distillation unit, aviation kerosene treatment unit, etc. were built and put into operation at Turkmenbashi oil refineries that significantly contributed to withdrawing petrochemical products, increasing the depth of oil refining and producing high-octane gasoline.

7 For this purpose the special terminal was put into operation. 6 liquefied gas vehicles and 16 railway wagons can be loaded simultaneously at this terminal. The reservoirs with the total capacity of 6,000 tons were built to store the necessary reserves of liquefied gas. Construction of the first liquefied gas terminal on the Caspian coast has been launched at Turkmenbashi complex of oil refineries. Nowadays liquefied gas is exported from terminal by road and rail to Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Armenia, Georgia and the national market. Construction of sea terminal in Kiyanly, where liquefied gas will be loaded in tankers was conditioned by increased production of this valuable raw material and prospects of further extension of the industry.

6

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Table 1.7 provides the data on the weather-dependence of the national economy in Turkmenistan and in a sample of ECA countries where the World Bank conducted an economic assessment of efficacy of potential NMHS’s modernization programs (see World Bank, 2008c), In general weather-dependence of the economy of Turkmenistan is described as “relatively low” (42.5%), but close to lpw bound of this category. Turkmenistan shows a greater balance between agriculture and industry. The weather-dependence category of Turkmenistan is comparable with those of, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan, but significantly lower than those of Armenia and Georgia, where agriculture is the main contributor to weather-dependence and accounts for 25 and 30% of GDP (see Table 1.7).

Table 1.7 Weather-dependence of Turkmenistan and comparator countries where similar studies were performed Country Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan

Share of weather-dependent sectors, % of GDP 51 69 62 43 42 61 48

Share of agriculture, % of GDP 12 30 25 7.0 18 20 32

Source: World Bank. 2008.c and author’s estimates

1.4. SUMMARY Turkmenistan is a largely desert country situated in the western part of Central Asia, with intensive agriculture in irrigated oases and large gas and oil resources. One-half of its irrigated land is planted in cotton; formerly it was the world’s tenthlargest producer.

Turkmenistan’s territory is frequently affected by high and low air temperatures, droughts, strong winds, and dust storms, floods and mudflows, etc. Agriculture contributes to about 18% of GDP of the national GDP and noted for its highest vulnerability and exposure to weather and climate hazards. As a whole, weather dependency of Turkmenistan’s economy is ranked as “relatively low”: 2/5 of its economy is sensitive to adverse weather phenomena.

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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY ASSESSMENT OF TURKMEN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 2.1. LEGAL, ORGANIZATIONAL AND FINANCIAL ASPECTS, STAFFING 2.1.1. BRIEF HISTORY The history of weather observations in Turkmenistan covers many decades and dates back to 1891 when the Main Geophysical Observatory (Saint-Petersburg) established the first meteorological station in Ashgabad City. The station performed 3-term observations according to a standard program. In 1904, the second meteorological station was opened; in 1910, an agrometeorological station was established (at an experimental agricultural station in Ashgabad suburb) and 2 hydrological stations at the Amu Darya River; in 1928, actinometric observations were initiated.

Since 1934, meteorological services have been provided to aviation, and in 1937 atmospheric radiosounding observations started. During 1930-40, new meteorological stations were established, hydrological stations were opened on Etrek, Tedzhen and Murgab rivers, and first climate data summaries appeared. In 1970, the scope of NHMS responsibilities was significantly expanded: air, water and soil pollution observations were set up, and in 1979, following the Resolution of the USSR Council of Ministries, the Hydrometeorological Service Department was reorganized into the Turkmen Republican Department for Hydrometeorology and Monitoring of the Natural Environment. During the last decade of the twentieth century the NHMS for some years was part of the Ministry of Nature Use and Environmental Protection, and since 1997 operates as the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan.

2.1.2. NMHS ACTIVITIES The work of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan (Turkmenhydromet) is governed by Turkmenistan Law on hydrometeorological Activities of September 15, 1999 #392-1, and Regulations of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Turkmenistan Cabinet of Ministers of January 15, 1998 #3492.

Turkmenhydromet is a public authority responsible for the implementation of the national hydrometeorological policy and meeting the needs of the national economy, defense industry and population of Turkmenistan in the information on actual and expected changes in hydrometeorological conditions and their consequences.

Turkmenhydromet provides short-, medium- and long-term weather forecasts, hydrological forecasts including those of the beginning and extent of flooding, formation of rainfall floods and mudflow development, as well as marine and agrometeorological forecasts.

Weather forecasts for 1 day, 2-3 days, 7 days and once a month for 30 days are made for public authorities, all information products being disseminated in hard copies before the beginning of working day. In addition, storm warnings about hazardous hydrometeorological events are communicated on a real-time basis.

At the request of industries, short-term weather forecasts and information on actual weather (in hard copies) are provided, as well as storm warnings about hazardous hydrometeorological events (on a real-time basis).

Radio and TV broadcasting offices receive daily and weekly weather forecasts, and newspaper editorial offices â&#x20AC;&#x201C; weekly and monthly weather forecasts (all in hard copies).

The regulatory and methodological framework for the operation of NMHS structural subdivisions is provided by manuals and guidelines on the organization and implementation of meteorological, hydrological, marine and agrometeorological observations, data transmission and processing, production of various advance time forecasts and warnings about extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events. NHMS departments are using manuals and guidelines that were in force at the USSR hydrometeorological Service before 1992. Since then the NHMS has performed no scientific and methodological research on how to improve the existing manuals and guidelines and adjust them to modern conditions. The only exception is meteorological support provided to aviation â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the Manual on Services Provided to Aviation was brought into compliance with international requirements and approved by the Head of the NHMS in 1999.

As part of cooperation between NMHSs in CIS countries, Turkmenistan should consider requesting these countries (for example Russia, Uzbekistan) to provide their manuals and guidelines on the organization and implementation of hydrometeorological observations and provision of services to users, initiate methodological work to adapt them to local conditions in Turkmenistan, and after approval adopt these documents as a regulatory framework of Turkmenhydromet operation.

Annual reports on NMHS activities do not appear in printed form. Instead, summarized information on the performance of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology is compiled on an annual basis and submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan.

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IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

2.1.3. INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE NMHS institutional structure is based on functional and territorial-administrative principles, and includes units and subdivisions at the NMHS Headquarters, and structural units â&#x20AC;&#x201C; hydrometeorological centers (HMC) in 4 velayats (regions). HMC functions in Akhal velayat are performed by the HMC of Turkmenhydromet. The diagram (Table 2.1) below presents the names of structural units, their number and numbers of staff members.

Table 2.1

The National HMC (Ashgabat) is essentially the main functional subdivision consisting of several offices: Forecasts, Hydrometeorology and Climatology Observations, Data Bank and Information. It also includes regional HMĐĄs in velayats with all stations and observation sites, as well as aerometeorological stations (AMSG). At the same time, AMSGs are methodologically reporting to the AMCT (Ashgabat). AMSGs provide meteorological services to aviation, and also serve as centers for data collection and transmission from local ground-based stations.

The HMC Forecast Office consists of 4 units that provide issue of daily, 3-day, medium-term and monthly weather forecasts, as well as storm warnings and notifications about hazardous weather events.

Hydrometeorology and Climatology Observations Office also consists of 4 units: Meteorology Development, hydrometeorological Conditions Research, Climate Information, and Agrometeorology.

The Data Bank and Information Office includes the archive and library. It should be noted that meteorological data archive only exists in hard copies, which largely restricts its usage in evaluations of climate in Turkmenistan, and providing the users with historic national hydrometeorological data. The Klimat Scientific and Technical Center initiated transformation of monthly meteorological data from a limited station network to electronic form through manual entering of data into PC tables.

Arrangements for document storage in the NHMS fail to meet the technical requirements to data storage at a national archive.

NHMS library has a highly restricted access to scientific and methodological literature. The first issues of the scientific journal Meteorologia I Gidrologia (Gidrometeoizdat) have been received by the library only since January 2008.

The Technical Center consists of 5 units and provides technical support to Turkmenhydromet subdivisions (data receipt and dissemination, hardware and software operation, repair and installment of meteorological instruments, and metrological support of observations).

Procurement, Logistical Support and Administrative Support Center consists of 3 units and is located in Bekreve settlement (a suburb of Ashgabat). The Procurement unit (PU) arranges procurement and distribution of expendable materials for all NHMS subdivisions. Logistical Support unit (LSU) operates a warehouse for instruments, spare parts and equipment to be supplied to HMC and stations. Administrative Support unit (ASU) is responsible for all administrative works at the NHMS in Ashgabat.

Contracts and Public Observations Office implements two independent functions: inspection of network units, and collection of data on contracts with user organizations. The Office is also responsible for contract execution and management in Akhal velayat.

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Responsibilities of subdivisions within the given structure are currently being specified and in the near future will be approved by the Committee Chairman – Head of the NMHS. Institutional structure of the NMHS that was historically established in view of its objectives and available professional staff fails to fully meet the modern needs in terms of providing efficient hydrometeorological services for the Socio-economic development of the country, and improving protection of the economy and population from extreme weather events.

2.1.4. REGIONAL CENTERS NHMS incorporates 5 velayat hydrometeorological Centers (HMC) that include: • Central Office; • Meteorological Stations; • Hydrometeorological Stations; • Hydrological Stations; • Meteorological Observation Sites; • Hydrological Observation Sites; • Agrometeorological Stations; • Aviation Meteorological Stations (AMSG).

HMC manages the work of its subdivisions and supplies them with instruments, equipment and expendable materials; performs data collection and transfer to the National HMC (via AMSG telecommunication systems); provides services to regional authorities and local administrations; executes and manages contracts with users, and provides local staff training. The central office of HMC is usually located in rented premises, receives information (normally daily and 2-day weather forecasts) from the National HMC, and makes it available to local authorities by phone or as written reports. Storm warnings about hazardous weather events are reported by phone. Velayat HMCs essentially disseminate the data received from the National HMC and produce no original information products. Contractbased services provided to users also represent the information received from the National HMC. HMC functions in Akhal velayat (the central region) are distributed among the structural subdivisions of the National HMC. Observations Office supervises the observational network, Contract Office – contractual activities, Forecast Office – information services, etc. As a result, local authorities receive less efficient services since the main attention is focused on providing services to the central authorities – ministries and agencies.

2.1.5. NMHS BUDGET Until February 2008 the NHMS operations were financed from the State Fund for Development of Transport and Communications of Turkmenistan, and nowadays the funds are provided from the State Budget. In addition to the main account where public budget allocations are credited (salaries, depreciation charges for equipment maintenance and other costs), the NHMS maintains a special account for the proceeds from contractual works performed by the National and velayat HMCs. There was no opportunity to review the budget spending targets, therefore evaluation of allocations for operational costs was not conducted.

NHMS is a public agency, and thus is using the cash flow accounting system common for all public institutions in Turkmenistan.

Financial operations are supervised by relevant departments of the Ministry of Finance and Control Chamber of Turkmenistan.

2.1.6. STAFFING ARRANGEMENTS Structural divisions of the NHMS currently employ around 700 people. Average age of staff members is 40 years old (from 18 to 75 years old). Staff number dynamics is given in Table 2.2.

Noteworthy is the existence of vacancies that are difficult to fill for lack of human resources and scarce number of university graduates specializing in hydrometeorology, information technologies and telecommunications. The reasons include low salaries (as compared to other public institutions) and lack of incentive schemes for NMHS staff.

Table 2.2 Turkmenhydromet Staff

Staff numbers – total Number of staff members with higher education

2000 617

2001 618

2002 624

2003 634

2004 638

2005 635

2006 629

2007 712

101

98

90

89

91

100

96

110

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2.1.7. TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADING PROGRAM Training of specialists in hydrometeorology is provided at the Turkmen State University by the Department of Geography and Nature Use. The Department annually trains 8-14 specialists; however, graduates rarely come to work at the NHMS for lack of interest and low salaries.

In 2008, Turkmenhydromet hired 2 graduates from the hydrometeorological University (Saint-Petersburg, Russia) who were trained under the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program. However, this training opportunity is not currently utilized, and no trainees are being sent to WMO education centers.

Almost no use is also made of the opportunities for professional upgrading of hydrometeorologists under WMO educational workshops, and training courses offered by Roshydromet Training Center for NHMS of CIS countries.

2.1.8. BUILDINGS, FACILITIES AND CAPITAL ASSETS All structural subdivisions of NHMS observational networks are provided with land plots in respective areas that were allocated on the basis of Land Use Acts officially registered and approved by the heads of relevant public authorities. The Acts formalize the right to free-of-charge and unlimited use of land plots within the boundaries specified in land use plans.

NHMS owns 91 buildings and facilities with average depreciation amounting to 40 %. Characteristics (number and value) of the main assets are given in Table 2.3.

Table 2.3 Turkmenhydromet Assets

Name Buildings and facilities Measuring equipment Communications Computers OďŹ&#x192;ce equipment Transport Software Total net asset value

Number 91 1255 174 71 471 34 3 2099

Net asset value, thousand TMM Depreciation, % 2007 2008 456 281 123 4-60 416 223 40 4 106 939 236 4 106 939 236 100 561 748 889 561 748 889 90 1 723 203 132 1 767 903 137 75 134 537 180 134 537 180 80 910 691 991 910 691 991 95 14 411 669 14 411 669 50 7 907 813 220 7 974 381 325

OďŹ&#x192;ce premises of velayat HMC and AMSG are rented and in most cases require repair.

Office premises of velayat HMC and AMSG are rented and in most cases require repair.

After atmospheric temperature-wind sounding was terminated, the buildings of aerological stations were transferred to other users. Therefore, establishment of temperature-wind sounding sites will require construction of new facilities or erection of platforms at existing meteorological stations.

2.1.9. CONTACTS WITH MASS MEDIA AND COMMUNITIES Weather forecasts for the current day and subsequent 2-3 days are daily reported to national papers and TV broadcasting in the form of a newsletter. The Head of NHMS appears on TV generally 1-2 times a year. No active cooperation with media is maintained. Contacts with population are restricted to weather information communicated through papers and TV. NMHS management realizes that active cooperation with mass media should be an important component of NMHS activities to raise awareness of public institutions, private companies and general public about the NMHS, its offices, capacity to provide information on current weather conditions, weather forecasts and warnings about unfavorable weather conditions. However, the lack of technologies to visualize meteorological information and prepare it for broadcasting on TV significantly limits the NHMS activities in this area.

2.1.10. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COOPERATION

By Resolution of the President of Turkmenistan of November 6, 1992, Turkmenistan acceded to the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and became the full-fledged Member of WMO on January 3, 1993. According to the WMO General and Technical Rules of Procedure, Turkmenhydromet participates in WMO scientific and technical programs, and hydrometeorological data and products exchange based on the principles of free and unlimited exchange of information. In com-

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pliance with the Law of Turkmenistan on hydrometeorological Activities dated September 15, 1999, the NHMS takes part in the global exchange of hydrometeorological data with foreign institutions.

In compliance with the Agreement on Cooperation in the Area of Hydrometeorology between CIS Countries dated February 8, 1992, Turkmenistan exchanges hydrometeorological data and forecasts with Russia and Uzbekistan. Exchange of data on hazardous weather events is performed based on bilateral agreements with Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan.

No separate agreements on hydrometeorology have been signed with the neighboring countries Afghanistan and Iran, and meteorological data from these countries are being obtained under the World Weather Watch through the WMO global telecommunication system.

During the recent 20 years international financial institutions and donor organizations have been providing insignificant technical assistance to the NMHS.

2.1.11. COMPLETED PROJECTS According to the decision of the Heads of Central Asian States of April 9, 1999, the following instruments and equipment to develop transboundary monitoring stations in Turkmenistan were provided as part of technical assistance by the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (grant financing by the World Bank and donor countries) and under the GEF Project “Water and Environmental Management in the Aral Sea Basin”.

Table 2.4 Equipment provided as part of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) N

Equipment

Meas.

Number

Cost

Delivered

Location

1.

Motor vehicle UAZ-3153

unit item

1

989 800 sums

26 July 2000

Ashgabat

2.

Portable petrol generators

set

6

USD13 201

22 Nov. 2000

Turkmenabat HS

GEKO, 5.2 kW

-2 sets, Southern Collector HS -1 set Birata HS – 1 set

3.

Hydrometeorological instruments

set

1

DM70 907.88

25 May 2001

Ashgabat – 2 sets Turkmenabat HS

4.

Basic radio station Kenwood TK-80

item

2

USD8 728

09 Oct. 2001

Ashgabat

5.

Hydrometeorological instruments

set

1

DM52 375.44

11 Oct. 2001

Birata HS

6.

Motor boat Amur-3

2

USD50 000

13 Nov. 2001

Birata HS,

31 Dec. 2001

Atamurat HS Southern Collector HS Turkmenabat HS

7.

Hydrometeorological instruments

set

1

DM63 330

8.

Motor boat КS-101D

item

1

USD4-6 000

25 July 2002

9.

Motor boat Amur3

item

1

USD25 000

28 Nov. 2002

10.

Portable petrol generators EDAA, NEVA, 7.5 kW set

Ogrydzha HS Ashgabat

2

USD6 582

08 Feb. 2003

Total cost: equipment USD149,511.0, hydrometeorological instruments DM186,613.32, motor vehicles 989,800 Uzbekistan sums.

Source: Turkmenhydromet.

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Table 2.5 Equipment provided as part of the GEF Water and Environmental Management in the Aral Sea Basin Project N 1.

Equipment

Meas.

Number

Thermometers: ТМ-1

unit item

20

ТМ-2

item

20

ТМ-3

item

20

item

2

2.

Wind meter М-63М-1 Radiosondes МРЗ-3А c/w batteries

3.

Computer VECTRA PC c/w printer

item set

Modem 288LC/144CD Shells N 150 4.

Electrochemical paper Radiosondes МРЗ-3А

5.

KPIOX measuring and control module with wire panel

Cost

Delivered

Supplier FGUP Gidrometpostavka

USD 5 510

February 1998 February

TOO NTZ

140 2

1998

Zond-Postavka State Meteorological

set

2

March

Service of Turkey

item

300

1998

rolls item

30 150

USD 10 350

October 2002 October

set

1

USD9 475,19 2002

FGUP Gidrometpostavka Campbell Scientific Inc., USA

2.1.12. ON-GOING PROJECTS The following equipment for the modernization of the MessageSwitching Center (MSC) was provided to Turkmenhydromet as technical assistance from Switzerland: Server PRIMERGY PY Eco200S2a/X 5110/160G, Monitor LCD 19” SCALEOVIEW H191W, CISCO PIX 506E #DES/AES Bundle/(Chassis,SW,@FEPorts,3DES/AES, MOXA CP168 U V2 cabel DB 9, CREATIVE Sound Blaster connect SB0270,(USB)-2, Kingston data traveler secure USB Flach Drive-1GB-2 GSM Siemens TS-35 USBBitroniks(2 metr) Modem Zyxel U 336 S-12 units.

The equipment worth of USD13,786 is in charge of Turkmenhydromet. The NHMS has a good capacity to promote more active participation of Turkmenhydromet staff in WMO agencies, conferences, workshops and training courses. Efforts should be made to have the Committee Chairman – Head of the NHMS appointed as the Permanent Representative of Turkmenistan with the WMO. This would enable to establish working contacts in the WMO Secretariat, more actively promote applications for technical assistance, and receive WMO scientific publications.

The NHMS must more actively cooperate with the Board of Directors of CIS NMHS, and Caspian Sea Committee (CASPCOM), which will allow extended exchange of hydrometeorological information with other countries in the region.

2.1.13. COORDINATION WITH OTHHR AGENCIES WORKING IN THH FIELD OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY The Ministry of Water Management operates a limited hydrological network. NHMS maintains close contacts with the agencies of the Ministry, and meets their needs in hydrological information (actual data and hydrological forecasts).

The Ministry of Defense has no sectoral observational network. Forecasting information is provided to air units and border forces to support air operations.

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2.2. OBSERVATION NETWORK, INFRASTRUCTURE, FACILITIES 2.2.1. NMHS OBSERVATION SYSTEM GROUND-BASED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS The national hydrometeorological observation network is the basis of the hydrometeorological service of Turkmenistan. Turkmenhydromet operates more than 100 meteorological, hydrological and agrometeorological stations and posts. The past and current status (as of January 2008) of the surface observing network is shown in table 2.6. Overall, the number of ground stations and posts has declined by 40% in the past 20 years.

Table 2.6 Turkmenhydromet surface observation network Type of observations Meteorological Hydrological Agrometeorological Aerological Aerometeorological Actinometric Ozonometric Marine hydrological Water evaporation Radiation integrator Water pollution Air pollution Sediment load

Number of stations and gauges Before 1990s Current status 100 58 56 6 11 7 4 16 16 1 10 8 12

48 32 48 6 2 4 6 2 1

10

Source: Turkmenhydromet data Currently, the hydrometeorological networkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s stations and posts are equipped with approximately 2,000 instruments of 25 different types.

Meteorological observations at stations and sites are performed in compliance with the Manual for hydrometeorological Stations and Sites: Issue 3, Part 1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Meteorological Observations at Stations (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1985), and according to the observation program specified in the Manual. The list of existing ground-based stations, hydrometeorological observation sites, , types of observations performed by hydrometeorological stations of NHMS of Turkmenistan are given in tables 7-9 of the technical mission report by Kotov, V. and A. Zaitsev, 2008. The ground-based meteorological network of NHMS of Turkmenistan also includes a number of inaccessible stations (INS) using radio communication lines to transmit information (see also table 10 of the technical mission report by Kotov, V., and A. Zaitsev, 2008).

SYNOPTIC STATIONS Figure 2.1 shows a map of the current and closed stations of the national meteorological network. Much of the equipment in operation is obsolete.

The entire system and the main hydrometeorological observation network as well as the main principles of operation were developed before mid-1970s and have remained unchanged. Virtually all observations are manually maintained by the staff of the Turkmenhydromet living and working on the ground, which for many of the remotest sites has become increasingly difficult to support despite their importance for accurate weather forecasts. Existing equipment is outdated and requires a lot of maintenance.

Some types of equipment have already been withdrawn from production, for example, mercury barometers. Overall, the observational sites at the stations are in good condition, and station managers take care of them assisted by regular inspections performed by the staff of NHMS Inspection Office. However, the communication systems for many of the stations are obsolete and unreliable, which limits the capacity of Turkmenhydromet accessing timely data and making these data available to users.

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Fig. 2.1. Operational and closed meteorological stations.

HYDROLOGICAL STATIONS AND POSTS Hydrological stations and observation sites perform standard hydrological observations in compliance with the Manual that had been in use at USSR stations and was never revised by the NHMS Turkmenhydromet. There is a motor boat at the Amu Darya River used to perform hydrological observations.

Amu Darya River basin – river runoff originates from Tajikistan and Afghanistan. There are 6 hydrological observation sites, three of them measuring river stream flow.

• Amu Darya River – Kelif (inlet gauge); water-gauge observations, water level: maximum 692 cm, minimum 335 cm.

Communication means should be provided to ensure timely data transmission, and automated unit installed to measure water level and stream flow.

• Amu Darya River – Mukry; water-gauge observations, water level: maximum 372 cm, minimum 20 cm.

• Amu Darya River – Atamurat (Kerki); water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements, solid runoff measurements.

Major transit, observations carried out since 1910; required modernization: automated unit for water flow and level measurements. Maximum water level 338 cm, minimum water level 23 cm, maximum stream flow 9210 m3/s, minimum stream flow 240 m3/s, river width 400-2200 m, maximum speed 4.8 m/s • Amu Darya River – Turkmenabat (Chardzhow); water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Observations carried out since 1886; required modernization: automated unit for water flow and level measurements. Maximum water level 408 cm, minimum water level (-61) cm, maximum stream flow 7300 m3/s, river width 150-850 m, maximum speed 4.6 m/s.

• Amu Darya River – Birata (Darganata); water-gauge observations, stream flow and solid runoff measurements. Observations performed since 1955; required modernization: automated unit for water flow and level measurements. Maximum water level 516 cm, minimum water level (-19) cm, maximum stream flow 7300 m3/s, bed width 100-950 m, maximum speed 4.5 m/s.

• Amu Darya River – Lebap; water-gauge observations. Maximum level 779 cm, minimum level 4-6 cm.

Kara Kum Canal – major water intake from the Amu Darya River.

• Main facility. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 384 cm, minimum level 27 cm, maximum stream flow 650 m3/s.

• Kara Kum Canal – river regulator. Water-gauge observations All observation sites are supervised by Atamurat (Kerki) HMC.

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Murgap River with tributaries Kashan and Kushka (5 observation sites) •Murgap River – Soinali, inlet to Turkmenistan territory. Level observation site. Required modernization: automated stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 403 cm, minimum level +1, maximum stream flow 671 m3/s, minimum stream flow 1.56 m3/s, bed width 80 m, maximum speed 3.9 m/s • Murgap River – Takhtabazar. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 705 cm, minimum level –1, maximum stream flow 886 m3/s, minimum stream flow 1.22 m3/s, bed width 130 m, maximum speed 2.9 m/s.

• Kashan River – Guldzha (Murgap river tributary). Water-gauge measurements, water sampling for turbidity. Maximum water level 847 cm, minimum level 88, maximum stream flow 565 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 50 m, maximum speed 2.6 m/s.

• Kushka River – Railway Bridge (Murgap river tributary). Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements sampling for turbidity. Maximum water level 527 cm, minimum level – drying out, maximum stream flow 744 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 65 m, maximum speed 3.1 m/s.

• Murgap River – Saryazy at the outlet from Saryazy water reservoir. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 766 cm, minimum level -55, maximum stream flow 440 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 150 m, maximum speed 2.5 m/s All observation sites are supervised by Takhtabazar HMC. Tedjen River – Pulikhatum (inlet gauge). Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Required modernization: automated stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 775 cm, minimum level – drying out, maximum stream flow 1320 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 100 m, maximum speed 4.0 m/s.

Etrek River with tributary Sumbar. 2 observation sites on the Etrek river, and 2 observation sites on the Sumbar river Etrek River – Chat (inlet gauge). Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements, sampling for turbidity. Required modernization: automated stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 1814 cm, minimum level – drying out, maximum stream flow 1530 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 250 m, maximum speed 3.5 m/s.

The Chat observation site is supervised by Etrek HMC. Etrek River Etrek. Water-gauge observations. Maximum water level 1243 cm, minimum level – drying out.

Sumbar River – Duzlutepe. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 653 cm, minimum level – drying out, maximum stream flow 709 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 30 m, maximum speed 4.5 m/s.

Duzlutepe observation site is supervised by Magtymguly HMC. Sumbar small river Magtymguly (Karakala). Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements, sampling for turbidity.

Maximum water level 828 cm, minimum level – drying out, maximum stream flow 649 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 30 m, maximum speed 3.7 m/s.

Small rivers in Turkmenistan Firyuzinka Archabil. Maximum stream flow 150 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0,03 m3/s.

Sekizyap. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 458 cm, minimum level 200, maximum stream flow 305 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.40 m3/s, bed width 25 m, maximum speed 3.9 m/s.

Ipaikala. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 238 cm, minimum level 150, maximum stream flow 259 m3/s, minimum stream flow 1.56 m3/s, bed width 25 m, maximum speed 3.7 m/s.

Mudflows annually occurring at small rivers cause significant damage to agriculture; automated stream flow measurements need to be arranged. Hydrological network requires modernization involving installation of automated hydrological units and introduction of mobile hydrological laboratories.

AGROMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONS AND OBSERVATION SITES Measurement techniques used to perform agrometeorological observations include standard meteorological measurements and observations of plant development stages are shown in Table 2.7.

Table 2.7 Stations performing agrometeorological observations

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

Akmolla Akdepe Atamyrat Bakharly Bereket Bairamaly Birata Burdalyk Bugdaila

10. Galkynysh 11. Dashaguz 12. Denizkhan 13. Ekedzhe 14. Eloten 15. Erbent 16. Kaka 17. Koitendag 18. Kyoneurgench

19. Margimana 20. Makhtumkuli 21. Mary 22. Seidi 23. Serdar 24. Tedjen 25. Tagtabazar 26. Turkmenabat 27. Uchadzhi

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ACTINOMETRICAL OBSERVATIONS Actinometrical observations performed by meteorological stations are aimed at obtaining data on radiation conditions required for scientific purposes and practical utilization in various sectors of the economy. Major parameters of radiation conditions that are systematically measured at the stations include direct, dissipated and total solar radiation, as well as radiation balance of the active surface. Direct radiation is measured by actinometer, dissipated, total and reflected radiation – by universal pyranometer and albedometer, radiation balance – by balance meter.

Major parameters of radiation conditions are measured with specified intervals (6 times a day) at stations in Bekrev (Ashgabat), Akmolla, Repetek, Turkmenabat and Esenguly. All instruments used in actinometrical observations have expired their service life, no full-scale checks and calibrations have been performed in recent years.

MARINE OBSERVATIONS Marine observations in the Caspian Sea coastal region are performed at 6 hydrological observation sites: Gagabohaz (Bekdash), Duzlybogaz (Garabogaz), Guvlymayak, Turkmenbashi (Krasnovodsk), Khazar (Cheleken) and Ogryzha (Ogurchinsky).

All marine hydrological instruments have expired their service life, are physically obsolete, and fail to meet technical requirements.

A new observation site needs to be established at the Caspian Sea coast near Ekrem, and all marine stations should be equipped with devices to measure oceanographic parameters. It is proposed to relocate the HMC in Balkan velayat to Turkmenbashi.

CONDITION OF OBSERVATIONAL INSTRUMENTS All instruments and equipment used at Turkmenhydromet networks have been in operation for a long time, are overage, and most of them must be replaced by modern devices. The service life of instruments has long expired making up 100%. Unless technical upgrading of the NHMS network is performed in the near future, further operation of its monitoring networks will become completely unreliable. Data on the number, condition and list of instruments used by the network is presented in Tables 11 and 12 of the technical mission report by Kotov, V. and A. Zaitsev, 2008. .

REMOTE OBSERVATIONS AEROLOGICAL STATIONS Aerological atmosphere sounding was previously performed at 6 meteorological stations: Ashgabat, Dashoguz, Tagtabazar, Turkmenabat, Turkmenbashi and Esenguly. Due to physical deterioration of equipment and instruments and the lack of expendable materials, aerological atmosphere sounding was terminated at 5 stations in 1998, and at Turkmenbashi station – in 2002. Aerological sounding equipment and instruments were dismantled, and buildings divested to local authorities.

Temperature and wind sounding sites should be set up at stations in Ashgabat, Turkmenbashi, Esenguly (as a first priority), Dashoguz and Tagtabazar, including the delivery and installation of aerological radars, gas generators, and engineering development (building) of space to locate the equipment.

TOTAL OZONE CONTENT Total ozone measurements are performed at 3 stations: Ashgabat, Mary and Repetek. Ozone meters М-124 produced in 1980-s by the Main Geophysical Observatory (Saint-Petersburg) are used. Observational data are submitted to the data bank (archive) and remain almost unused.

METEOROLOGICAL RADARS MR network is non-existentent at the NHMS of Turkmenistan. The only MR at the Ashgabat airport was put out of operation in 1997 due to physical deterioration and lack of spare parts. To ensure meteorological support of aviation, modern Doppler radars need to be installed at the international airports in Ashgabat and Turkmenbashi.

SATELLITE INFORMATION The existing system of data receipt from geostationary and polar-orbital meteorological satellites (Tekhnoavia) has exhausted its service life and is no longer in operation. Another reason is the transfer from analog to digital satellite data transmission. At present, two mosaic photo series of TV and IR-images from NOAA-18 polar-orbital meteorological satellite and two nephanalysis

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maps are twice a day transmitted from Uzhydromet via a direct allocated channel Ashgabat-Tashkent. Images from NOAA-15 and 18 meteorological satellites are three times a day emailed from Kazhydromet.

2.2.2. TECHNICAL SUPPORT OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL EQUIPMENT The overall status of metrological support is unsatisfactory. Almost no checking and calibration of meteorological instruments are performed due to the lack or complete deterioration of reference equipment (Fig. 2.2). No verification of reference instruments (comparison with primary standards) is performed. Reference instruments have expired their service life and fail to meet technical requirements.

Fig. 2.2 Checking and Calibrating instruments and facilities

Verification and calibration of hydrometric current meters have not been performed for several years. Arrangements should be made for verification of hydrological measurement instruments using the capacity of NHMS in neighboring countries.

2.2.3. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN WEATHHR FORECASTING ROUTINE FORECASTS Turkmenhydromet produces short-, medium- and long-range weather forecasts that are daily reported to government authorities and agencies. Forecasts are grouped into meteorological, hydrological, agrometeorological and marine ones. Generalpurpose one, two- and three-day weather forecasts are produced on a daily basis for the whole country and for large cities. No seasonal and very-long-range forecasts are produced due to the lack of relevant methodologies. Ranges and types of produced forecasts are given in Table 2.8.

Table 2.8. Ranges and types of produced forecasts

Forecast range Short-range Medium-range Long-range Very-long-range

Lead time 1-3 days 3-10 days 1 month and longer Decades and longer

Forecast types Meteorological (synoptic) Hydrological Agrometeorological Marine

Forecasted event Expected weather conditions, as well as hazardous weather events Water content of rivers and hazardous hydrological events Spring/autumn frosts, productivity of pastures and plant phenology Changes in water level and temperature, and storm surge

EVALUATION OF ROUTINE FORECASTS Forecast evaluation is performed according to the Manual for Weather Forecast Services, Section 2, Parts 3,4,5 (Gidrometeoizdat, 1982). Table 2.9 shows data on EHH and HH. Monthly forecasts are produced based on the similar year and general characteristics of expected monthly weather in Central Asia obtained from Roshydromet. No estimates of these forecasts are performed.

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Table 2.9 Accuracy of the forecasts of extremely hazardous and hazardous meteorological events

NN 1 2 3 4 5

Event Strong wind Heavy rainfall Extreme heat Severe frost Floods and mudflows

1-day weather forecast 3-day weather forecast

Forecast accuracy 0.68 0.45 0.94 0.50 0.88 0.69 0.86 0.75

Fig. 2.3 Forecaster’s working place

ACCESS TO NUMERICAL MODEL DATA Turkmenhydromet currently uses no calculations based on global and regional models to produce daily, monthly, seasonal or yearly weather forecasts.

In 2006, V.M. Losev (Moscow HMC) gave to the NHMS of Turkmenistan a special-purpose regional short-term hydrodynamic model enabling calculations directly at the NHMS of Turkmenistan. The technology allows processing of calculations with visualization of meteorological field series, the most important of which being onehour precipitation amounts enabling weather forecasters to forecast evolution and velocity of frontal sheds. The initial set of fields is every day established at the Russian hydrometeorological Center and sent to the NHMS of Turkmenistan via Internet (е-mail). According to forecast practitioners, resolution of the model fails to meet forecasting requirements. Further development of the model is required or introduction/adaptation of other regional models used by weather services in the region and Europe.

To ensure successful work of weather forecasters and achieve satisfactory forecast reliability, efforts should be made to obtain numerical data of advanced models and results of objective analyses from several forecasting centers. This could be achieved by arranging routine receipt of information via special-purpose WMO communication channels (GTS) with high capacity, and applying modern software for data decoding, storage and visualization.

2.2.4. TELECOMMUNICATIONS, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES COLLECTION AND TRANSMISSION OF DATA AND INFORMATION PRODUCTS The following tone-frequency (TF) direct communication channels are arranged in Turkmenistan: 1. Ashgabat – Tashkent 2. Ashgabat – AMC Ashgabat

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3. Ashgabat – AMSG Turkmenbashi 4. Ashgabat – AMSG Turkmenabat 5. Ashgabat – AMSG Dashoguz 6. Ashgabat – AMSG Mary Each of the above channels except the Ashgabat – Tashkent one, uses second-order multiplexer P-327 to generate tone frequency in standard fourwire channels with 0.3-3.4 KHz pass band, two duplex telegraph channels with telegraph transmission speed of 50-100 bauds with telephonic communication being preserved in multiplex channels in the 0.3-2.7 KHz band. Tone frequency is used to retranslate facsimile information from Tashkent to the AMSG network.

Collection of hydrometeorological data from stations and measurement sites in Balkanabad, Dashoguz, Lebap and Mary velayats is based on radial-nodal principle. AMSG collect information across the velayat by switch telegram (ST), public switched telephone network (PSTN), and manually send it to Ashgabat via direct TF channel. Data transmission is performed in reverse order.

In Akhal velayat, data collected from MS Archabil, MS Bakharly, MS Kaka, MS Sarakhs and MS Tedjen is transmitted via PSTN and automatic long-distance exchange (ALDE) to CCS Ashgabat.

In Balkan velayat, data collected from MS Balkanаbat, MS Bekeret, MS Esenguly, HMS Etrek, HMS Guvlimayak, HS Magtymguly, MS Serdar, HMS Turkmenbashi, MS Khazar is transmitted via PSTN and ALDE to AMSG Turkmenbashi. Information from HMS Garabogaz goes to AMSG Turkmenbashi via the local communications center. ST units are also available at HMS Etrek and HMS Turkmenbashi.

In Dashoguz velayat data collected from MS Akdepe and MS Koneurgench is transmitted via PSTN and ALDE, as well as by ST to AMSG Dashoguz.

In Lebap velayat, data collected from HMS Atamyrat, HMS Birata, MS Galkynysh, MS Koitendag and MS Seidi is transmitted via PSTN and ALDE to AMSG Turkmenabat. Turkmenabat ATS telephones are installed at MS Repetek and HS Turkmenabat. Data exchange between HMC Lebap and AMSG Turkmenabat is performed via ST and PSTN. In Mary velayat, data collected from MS Bairamaly, AHMS Elotan, HS Tagtabazar is transmitted via PSTN and ALDE to AMSG Mary. Data exchange between HMC Mary and AMSG Mary is performed via ST and PSTN. Information from MS Margiana is transmitted to AMSG Mary via Gazprom communication switchboard. Information from MS Uchazhy is transmitted to AMSG Mary via the railway communication switchboard. Information from HS Denizkhan and HS Saryyazy is transmitted to AMSG Mary via the communications switchboard of the Ministry of Water Management.

Communication with remote hydrometeorological stations in Akmolla, Balkan, Bokurdak, Bugdaily, Burdalyk, Derveze, Duzlybogaz, Ekedzhe, Erbent, Dushak, Ogryzha, Shansem and Chagyl is provided by radio in telegraph mode by Morse coding, and telephonically using Angara-type radio stations at frequencies 3670, 4320 and 5410 KHz. Kenwood radio station is installed at the central station in Ashgabat. Angara radio stations operating at frequencies 3670, 4320 and 5410 KHz are available at AMSG Dashoguz, MS Burdalyk, MS Repetek and MS Sarakhs. hydrometeorological data receipt and transmission to the global telecommunications system are performed through the Regional Meteorological Center in Tashkent using the UniMASS software and hardware complex performing the function of message switching center.

No significant changes have occurred in qualitative and quantitative data collection indicators during 1990-2007. The list and conditions of communication and support equipment are specified in Table 14 of technical mission findings report (Kotov, V. and Al. Zaitsev. 2008).

Fig. 2.4. Message Switching Center

In the near future, modernization of the Message Switching Center (MSC) on the basis of 64-bit computers and Linux Mandrive 2007 operating system will be performed under the Swiss Support to Asian hydrometeorological Services in Central Asia Program.

In 1998, a Tekhnoavia satellite data receiver was installed at Turkmenhydromet undеr the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program. This was used, but broke down and is currently out of operation.

By agreement with Kazhydromet, since December 2004, the NHMS has been receiving information products from SKANNEX

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satellite data receiver (cloud-cover images used to make short-term forecasts). The information comes with frequent interruptions due to the low capacity of communication links.

Information products of the RF-HMC produced using the GIS METEO technology is also used to make short-term forecasts.

Fig. 2.5 Turkmenhydromet Database Archive Storage and Hard Copies of Observation Data Records

DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING The historical database of meteorological variables has been stored as hard copies in the form of manuscripts or typewritten texts. Due to the lack of adequate archival facilities, storage of meteorological data fails to comply with the rules of long-term storage of paper records. Paper yellows and embrittles with time, records made in ink fade causing the risk of irrecoverable loss of long-term meteorological data, which represent historical climate information.

Major measured meteorological elements comply with the list specified in the Manual for hydrometeorological Stations and Sites (1987).

As the need arise, the information is manually written out from tables (separate year-by-year HMS files) that are kept in the archive in A2 format, which requires a lot of time and effort. Multiple handling of hard copies cause undesirable effects such as torn edges, detached pages, worn off figures, etc.

In 1993-1994, the database of major meteorological elements for Turkmenistan was obtained from VNIIGMI-MTsD on diskettes, and subsequently lost. Roshydromet should be requested to reprovide electronic data on Turkmenistan weather stations.

2.2.5. NATIONAL DATA EXCHANGE The NHMS performs data collection and exchange (analysis, forecasts and warnings) using the departmental network via the NHMS Technical Center and aviation meteorological units (AMCT and AMSG).

The system of data collection and exchange between velayat HMC (AMSG) and the National hydrometeorological Center in Ashgabat requires considerable modernization including the following: • Introduce modern telecommunication technologies using satellite communication or optic fiber links; • Establish departmental communication hubs and data visualization systems at velayat HMC; • Provide the National HMC and velayat HMC with computer and office equipment; • Introduce a modern satellite data receiver at the National HMC.

2.2.6. INTERNATIONAL DATA EXCHANGE Turkmenhydromet participation in the WMO World Weather Watch (WWW) is supported via link to analog data exchange arranged between the WMO Global Telecommunications System and the WMO Regional Center in Tashkent. The capacity of this communication link allows only a limited amount of data to be received (facsimile weather maps, textual and digital information) from the World Meteorological Center in Moscow and Regional Center in Tashkent. The amount of incoming information is estimated as not more than 30 MB due to the low capacity of communication link.

Technical upgrading of the NHMS telecommunications system should provide for expanded range and amount of data obtained from the world and regional centers WMOWMC (Moscow), European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (Bracknell, England), Regional Center (Offenbach, Germany), etc. Introduction of modern technologies allowing expanded range and amount of information obtained from the WMO World and Regional Centers should be accompanied with the implementation of visualization systems. It is only in such case, given the retraining of specialists from the National HMC in Ashgabat, that one can expect improved forecast accuracy for Turkmenistan, including forecasts of hazardous weather events.

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2.3. PRODUCTS AND SERVICE DELIVERY, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, NATIONAL COORDINATION 2.3.1. WEATHHR INFORMATION SERVICES Generalpurpose weather forecasts are produced usually for 1 day, 3 days, 7 days, and once a month a 30-day forecast is produced. All forecasting data are submitted to public authorities and administrations. Daily forecasts are updated as of the noon of the current day. Storm warnings are reported by phone on a real-time basis. The National HMC has a list of 28 government agencies receiving forecasting data (in hard copies). Forecasts and warnings are also sent to velayat HMC who make them available to local authorities and administrations. At the request of industrial sector agencies, short-term forecasts and actual weather data are provided in hard copies, and storm warnings about hazardous weather events are reported in real time.

Potential users of weather information include: heat and power sector, construction industry, road, air, railway and marine transport, agriculture, oil and gas industry, and housing and communal sector. These sectors use only general weather forecasts rather than special-purpose products.

NHMS performs no systematic work with users concerning the better use of current weather information and forecasts. No focused efforts are made to expand the range of users. Also, no instructional and methodological work is arranged for the specialists responsible for this area of activities.

2.3.2. CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES Climate information in Turkmenistan is required for planning and construction of buildings and facilities, assessment of climate variations and change. Climate data bank is available at the NHMS only in hard copies, which restricts preparation of climate information at user request. Climate information services are using the data from the respective volume of the USSR Climate Handbook (1968) and a reference edition Ashgabat Climate (1984). Evaluation of climate variability in recent decades performed by Scientific and Technical Center “Klimat” is still to be completed.

NHMS should request from the WMO the latest edition of the Guide to Climatological Practices prepared by the WMO Commission for Climatology.

2.3.3. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES Agrometeorological Forecast Unit of the hydrometeorological Observations Office prepares 10-day agrometeorological newsletters containing summarized information for the past 10 days of the month on air temperature and humidity, soil temperature and humidity, and providing forecasts of expected blooming periods and other development stages of agricultural crops, fruit trees and mulberry.

The newsletter in hard copies is disseminated to various subdivisions of the Ministry of Agriculture; however, no feedback and comments from users is arranged. Velayat HMCs do not receive agrometeorological newsletters on a regular basis, which significantly restricts their capacity to provide services to local agricultural users.

2.3.4. HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES Hydrological Unit of the hydrometeorological Observations Office analyzes information obtained from hydrological stations and observation sites. Short- and long-term forecasts of water flow and level of major Turkmenistan rivers are produced on the basis of calculations. Short-term forecasts are made for 5 days, and long-term ones – for a month or a quarter. In high water periods 5day forecasts are updated on a daily basis. Hydrological forecasts are sent to the Ministry of Water Management (7 users) and design institutions of the Ministry. Close contacts are maintained with the agencies of the Ministry of Water Management, however, cooperation with other users (agriculture, design institutions) is almost non-existentent.

NHMS should request from the WMO Secretariat and implement the Guide to Hydrological Practices (WMO Publication 168).

2.3.5. SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH AND CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT STC Klimat (STC) evaluates climate variations and change in Turkmenistan based on observations from the basic meteorological network of Turkmenistan. Preliminary analyses indicate a noticeable rise in air temperatures and increased drought recurrence.

In 2005 a scientific work was published entitled Productivity of Wooded Meadows in Turkmenistan Deserts: Assessment and Forecast. The STC initiated transformation of climate information from hard copies into electronic form, which will enable in the future to implement more specific evaluations of climate variations in Turkmenistan.

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A request should be made to Roshydromet to provide a new version of CLIWARE software system (Integrated hydrometeorological Data Management System) developed by VNIIGMI-MTsD. The Ministry of Nature Protection is responsible for the climate change issue and participation of Turkmenistan in the UN Convention on Climate Change. NHMS role in this process is to implement climate observations and provide information on current changes of climate conditions in Turkmenistan.

Scientific and methodological work in other areas of NHMS activities is non-existentent due to the lack of specialists. Noteworthy is the need to initiate methodological works to adapt Guidelines and Manuals used by other NHMS (e.g., in CIS countries) to Turkmenistan conditions. In recent years the NHMS has not been receiving scientific and methodological literature. It is only in January 2008 that the first issues of the scientific journal Meteorologia I Gidrologia (Roshydromet) were received.

2.3.7. INFORMATION SERVICES PROVIDED AT USER REQUEST Information services to the users of hydrometeorological data and forecasts are provided by velayat HMC on a contractual basis (Table 2.10). The heads of HMC establish contacts with local organizations in velayats and sign contracts for hydrometeorological services. The number and scope of contracts depend on the activity of HMC management. The number and amounts of contracts for the recent 3 years are given in the table below.

It is worth noting that until 2008 proceeds from contracts were transferred to the State Budget and never used to encourage contracting activities. Since February 2008 a special bank account has been open in Turkmenhydromet for the funds generated by velayat HMC under contracts. One should expect expansion of contractbased activities since the generated funds can be used to develop and promote hydrometeorological services.

According to Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation, payments for services provided by Turkmenhydromet are to be compensated under the General Agreement between Turkmenhydromet and Turkmenkhovaellary on Mutual Obligations concerning Meteorological Support of Aircraft Flights in Turkmenistan, and Resolution of the President of Turkmenistan dated February 3, 1997, # 3004 On Meteorological Services to Civil Aviation.

Air transport sector of Turkmenistan provides the staff of Turkmenhydromet with office space, power supply for meteorological equipment and instruments, dedicated communication lines for transmission and receipt of meteorological information through USW/SW radio channels, wire channels and other communication means to ensure real-time services, protection of meteorological instruments and equipment. Turkmenhydromet specialists also use privileged air tickets when they check the operation of meteorological instruments and perform methodological inspections of the network.

Table 2.10 The number and amounts of contracts (in Turkmen manats (TMM)) executed in 2005-2007 between Turkmenhydromet HMCs and agencies located within their service territory

Years

2005

Velayats (regions) Department Akhal Mary Balkan Lebap Dashoguz

Amount

2006

Department Akhal Mary Balkan Lebap Dashoguz

Amount

2007

Amount

42

Department Akhal Mary Balkan Lebap Dashoguz

Number of contracts 8 28 42 15 32 10 135 10 26 41 18 35 10 140 9 26 36 14 28 10 133

Contract amounts 120 765 244 63 644 664 102 094 448 173 510 114 128 970 900 41 606 512 630 591 882 200 694 660 39 156 4-65 101 197 307 181 201 193 147 127 945 55 657 84-6 725 035 416 99 013 250 4-6 907 932 97 747 456 160 584 855 116 077 304 40 924 823 561 255 620

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2.4 SUMMARY Turkmenistan has provided meteorological observations and services since the late nineteenth century. In the early twentieth century, the observing network expanded to include hydrological observations, and actinometric measurements. In the 1970â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s, the network was further expanded to make more extensive atmospheric, water and air pollution measurements. This was the high point in the capacity and capability of Turkmenhydromet to provide comprehensive meteorological and hydrological services.

Since then there has been a dramatic decline in capacity and capability. Today the Turkmenhydromet operates with largely obsolete equipment and lacks access to modern forecasting methods, which limits its capacity to provide the products and services needed by the public and the economy. All of the Turkmenhydromet facilities are in a poor state of repair; there is insufficient qualified staff even to adequately maintain the current network, and limited training opportunities.

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CHAPTER 3. ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION 3.1. APPROACHHS TO NEEDS ASSESSMENT When preparing their modernization programs, NMHS have traditionally focused on the technological aspects of hydrometeorological service development. Such approach aims at improving forecast accuracy and timeliness. However, inadequate interaction with users usually prevents NMHS from taking into account their actual and especially potential information needs. A complete absence or under development of contacts with users at the modernization package development stage results in a gap between the opportunities and plans of hydrometeorological service provision and understanding of what, how and where NMHS information can be used most effectively to support management and operational decisions in specific sectors of the economy.

This lack of attention to end users’ current and potential understanding of their benefits from better hydrometeorological services during NMHS modernization may further increase information misalignment8 between a hydrometeorological service and its users. To avoid this, it is essential for NMHSs to build their interaction with users on the basis of modern principles, taking into account users’ interest in NMHS development and demonstrating to them their own and national benefits, including the economic ones.

There are several key factors, which determine the priority, scale and sequence of activities to modernize the National hydrometeorological Service and improve its institutional structure. These include assessment and recognition of the current status and trends in the needs for hydrometeorological information on the part of governmental institutions, users in major producing and nonproducing sectors of the economy, and the population.

The objectives and expected results of user needs assessment are to: (i) identify the causes and factors of poor interaction between NMHS and its users; (ii) recommend to NMHS the most efficient way of cooperation with users; and (iii) propose to users how to integrate/apply hydrometeorological information and formulate their needs for it.

User needs for hydrometeorological information in Turkmenistan were assessed in two stages.

First, NMHS experts identified the NMHS development priorities proceeding from the analysis of its current conditions, user needs (as perceived by the NMHS), and knowledge of opportunities provided by modern hydrometeorology. This survey is based on the questionnaire developed during preparation of the National hydrometeorological Modernization in Russia (2003-2004)9 and further tailored to estimate the economic benefits from the improved quality of hydrometeorological services following the modernization of national meteorological services in ECA region (2005-2007) .

Second, the key users’ needs in hydrometeorological services were assessed in order to prepare recommendations on building Turkmenhydromet’s capacity to provide synoptic/meteorological/hydrological services and information, as well as hydrometeorological hazard and disaster warnings to the national Government, economy and population. The assessment targeted the most significant (in terms of GDP share) industries/sectors that are vulnerable to EHHs and HHs. The user needs assessment was based on a special checklist (World Bank, 2008b) developed using WMO materials, World Bank earlier studies, and the Questionnaire on Assessment of User Needs in hydrometeorological Information previously used for a survey conducted with the assistance of the regional project Swiss Support to NMHS in the Aral Sea Basin (Tajikhydromet, 2008).

The checklist used to assess the needs of specific weather-dependent sectors included the following substantive survey blocks: • HH influence, by impact type/degree and damage significance (one-time and total); • Relevance of forecast products, and barriers to their uses; • Hydrometeorological information (HMI) sources, types, and delivery channels and formats; • Quality assessment of delivered forecast products; • Requirements to NMHS products formulated with due regard for NMHS modernization; • Assessment of and methodologies for estimating economic damage from EHHs and HHs; and • Recommendations and proposals to Kyrgyzhydromet to improve and customize hydrometeorological services.

The results of the sector expert survey may be divided into two major groups: 1) General information on the sector’s dependence on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards, on the amount and quality of HMI used by the sector, and on the current efficacy of HMI uses; and 2) Information on the potential demand for various information types and presentation formats, accuracy and timeliness of each hydrometeorological element/event forecast required for sector operations, HMI requirements necessary for optimal performance, as well as recommendations and proposals on hydrometeorological service improvement and customization.

8 Information misalignment stems from the fact that NMHS experts do not know all of the details of specific sector operations and, therefore, cannot adjust their products to users’ specific needs and requirements. At the same time, users do not know all of the opportunities of modern hydrometeorology and, therefore, cannot formulate their potential needs accurately and correctly.

9 Tsirkunov, V., M. Smetanina, A. Korshunov, and S. Ulatov. 2004.

10 World Bank. 2008c.

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The survey was conducted with support from Turkmenhydromet staff. Table 3.1 gives a list of sectors/ministries whose representatives participated in the survey.

Table 3.1 List of Sectors/Ministries Covered by the Survey

Sector /Ministry Emergencies (Ministry for Defense)

Structural unit 11 Department of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations

Agriculture (Ministry of Agriculture)

Ashgabat City Branch of Department of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations12 13 Scientific and Research Institute for Agriculture .

14

Association “Tyrkmenmallary” (Animal husbandry sector) 15

Water Management (Ministry of Water Economy).

Oil&Gas Industry (Ministry of Oil and Gas and Mineral Resources) Energy Sector (Ministry of Energy and Industry)

Water Use Department 16 Association “Turkmengazakdyrysh” State Electric Power Corporation “Turkmenenergo” .

Transport (Ministry of Railway Transport ) Communal Services Environment (Ministry of Nature Protection)

Department of Ministry 19 Trust “Ahgabatteplo” .

20 Department of Ministry

17

18

National Institute of Deserts, Flora and Fauna

21

The survey participants took part in a consultation workshop on improving the efficiency of weather and climate service delivery in Turkmenistan (Ashgabat, September 30, 2008) where they attended a special session to discuss and update HMI needs assessment of weather-dependent sectors of the economy. Workshop agenda, list of participants and major preliminary findings and recommendations are presented in Annexes 4-6.

A joint analysis of the resulting assessments made it possible to: (i) identify potential user needs and requirements for HMI and information products; and (ii) prepare Recommendations and proposals for the NMHS Modernization Program with due regard to the interests of both parties (NMHS staff and specialists from key weather-dependant economic sectors) in NMHS development, which in turn would allow reducing information misalignment.

3.2 ASSESSMENT OF KEY SECTOR’S NEEDS FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION 3.2.1. TURKMENHYDROMET VISION OF USER NEEDS IN HYDROMETEROLOGICAL INFORMATION AND FORECASTS Turkmenhydromet management has an understanding that lack of awareness of the value provided by NMHS limits the availability of public resources for this service. The NMHS also needs to develop an internal capacity to estimate the value of its improved operations and products to the economy as a whole, concerning its optimal role in serving national requirements in hydrometeorological forecasts and information. In order to make investments into the NMHS sustainable it is necessary to study needs of potential users on the basis of maintaining dialog with users from specific sectors of economy, develop standard user-oriented information products and establish feebased services.

11

Aganiyazov, R. 2008.

Muhammetnazarov, N. 2008.

13 Bazarov, Dzhumadurdy. 2008 14 Dzhumov, Bayramgeldy. 2008..

15 Hanmedov, Guvanch. 2008.

16 Association “Turkmengazakdyrysh”. 2008.

17 Bayramov, G., and D. Allayarov. 2008 18 Muhammetgulyev, Deryaguly. 2008.

19 Neznamov, Sergei. 2008.

20 Ministry of Nature protection. 2008 21 National Institute of Deserts, Flora and Fauna. 2008.

12

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Close cooperation between NMHS and various sectors is the most efficient way to reduce information misalignment and, therefore, improve the economic efficiency of HMI product uses. Such cooperation is usually based on specialized hydrometeorological services. The task of Turkmenhydromet is to provide this information to users in a timely, most adequate and userfriendly way.

According to the Turkmenhydromet experts key factors limiting production and delivery of adequate standard and specialized hydrometeorological information and products are as follows: • Underfunding of the NMHS, uncompetitive salaries in comparison to other public sector organizations; • Decline of observational networks; • Worn-out equipment, obsolete technology; • Lack/absence of up-to-date instruments (radars), high-resolution satellite meteorological information, modern forecasting techniques (seasonal forecasting); • Inadequate scientific guidance support; • Absence of upper air observations, pasture vegetation surveys, data analysis, systematization and archiving programs; • Staffing problem.

At the same the Turkmenhydromet experts indicated the following factors impeding the use of hydrometeorological information and forecast products: • Current and potential users are not adequately informed about the Turkmenhydromet services and products.

• Ministries and agencies do not communicate information on hydrometeorological services and their effective use to their subordinate divisions in the regions, and do not know how to make the most efficient basic use of the hydrometeorological provisions. Often they work in the old way using obsolete methods and not taking into account on-going climate change.

• There is lack of feedback from the users to Turkmenhydromet on the quality of current hydrometeorological provisions and specific needs in sectortailored products; • Users lack access to adequate communications systems to acquire meteorological information as rapidly as would be useful. Timeliness of urgent messages, accessibility and understanding of routine messages, design and quality of output products are low; • Current and potential users are not trained in how to make basic use of meteorological information to achieve economic benefit and achieve full benefit of meteorological information without access to specialists who are in short supply.

• Potential users do not have basic skills and incentives for incorporating hydrometeorological data into relevant informed management decisions to facilitate damage reduction. To understand the possibilities offered by the present day hydrometeorology and basic principles of the effective use of hydrometeorological information and forecast products the assistance of professional hydrometeorologists is needed.

Taking into account the mandate of Turkmenhydromet as a NMHS it is not possible to switch hydrometeorological services fully to contractual basis. At the same time to support sectors of the economy and meet a mass demand for hydrometeorological information it is necessary to develop specialized, targeted, user-oriented services. A well-balanced strategy and models of interaction with users should be developed which would take into consideration possibilities offered by modernization of Turkmenhydromet and willingness of users to employ various forms of cooperation suitable for their current situation and future demands.

Table 3.2 presents impacts of hydrometeorological hazards to economy and population of Turkmenistan by types of damages.

It shows that mudflows and floods, strong winds and dust storms, drought incur the most diversified and damaging cross-sectoral impacts. Observation and forecast of those hazards need priority attention while elaborating NMHS modernization program and improving accuracy and timeliness of hydrometeorological provisions to sectors of economy.

Table 3.2 Impacts of the main hydrometeorological hazards in Turkmenistan

46

1

hydrometeorological hazards Floods and mudflows

2

Strong wind

3

Dust storms

4 5

Drought Dry hot winds

6 7

Frosts, spring and autumn Heavy rainfall

Objects affected by hazardous events Flooding of cities, populated localities, agricultural lands, railway and motor roads, destruction of hydraulic works, bridges, communication lines, power lines, death of humans and animals Facilities, residential houses, power lines, communication lines, railway, air and motor transport, roads, oil and gas pipelines, construction projects, trees, billboards Air transport, local population, railway and motor transport, power lines, communication lines, buildings, residential houses, trees, billboards, communal infrastructure Dry land farming, pastures, animals (leads to degradation of desert pastures) Rural residents, agricultural crops, pastures, animals (in some cases may lead to cotton yield losses up to 40%) Young agricultural crops, fruit trees, autumn output yield Crop areas, residential houses and buildings, cellars, railway and motor roads, hydraulic works

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

8 9

hydrometeorological hazards Strong heat Severe frost

Objects affected by hazardous events

10

Heavy hail

People, crop areas (especially cotton plants), railway and motor roads People, fruit trees, animals, heat pipelines, motor roads, oil and gas pipelines, water lines, communal infrastructure facilities Hail damage, agricultural crops, gardens, house roofs, cars

11

Glazed frost

Motor transport, pedestrians, air transport, communication and power lines

13 14

Thunderstorms Ice jam on rivers

Air transport, people, metal structures, power lines Flooding of cities, populated localities, crop areas, destruction of hydraulic works, bridges

15

Storm surge

Marine transport, fisheries, coastal infrastructure

Source: Turkmenhydromet Besides governmental bodies and national and regional administrations, Turkmenhydromet provides its products and information to agriculture, construction sector, heat and electricity generation and supply industries, aviation, railroad transport, oil&gas extraction industries, communal services. In other sectors the use of hydrometeorological information is accidental or very limited.

Currently Turkmenhydromet has limited capacity to provide/develop specialized hydrometeorological services required to those sectors of the economy. Products of the NMHS do not often meet practical needs of users.

In view of Turkmenhydromet experts, improving the efficiency of meteorological services provided to users requires to: • Improve the quality of user-oriented warnings and forecasts though implementing a complete technical modernization of the NHMS, and introducing modern forecasting technologies.

• Develop closer contacts with user groups for better understanding of their needs for hydrological and meteorological information.

• Evaluate economic efficiency of current HMI and to explain to decision makers and specific users potential benefits of improved weather and climate services delivery • Increase the awareness of local communities and improve local communities’ understanding of and response to meteorological and hydrological warnings.

• Participate in the development of efficient mitigation of natural disasters.

• Improve relations and coordination with emergency management agencies.

• Closely cooperate with mass media.

3.2.2. EMERGENCIES The Cabinet of Ministers is in charge of natural disaster management in Turkmenistan. The State Commission on Emergency Situations under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan (The State Emergency Management Commission – SEMC) is the primary agency in charge of emergency situations that occur throughout the country, primarily natural disasters. SEMC assumes control of all response activities in the event of an emergency situation. The National law defines the roles and responsibilities of the Commission.

The SEMC prepares administrative plans for the response to and recovery from natural disasters. It is also in charge of monitoring, warning, disaster communication, and public information. It is tasked with developing natural hazard maps for the velayats.

It provides damage assessments if needed, and has the authority to call upon international assistance when needed. It develops plans for civil protection and provides training for administrative personnel at all levels about the methods and technology used in response to disasters.

Turkmenhydromet role in disaster management support is limited to provisions of hydrometeorological data and forecasts on extreme hydrometeorological hazards.

At present a special department of the Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan is handling activities of civil defense and rescue operations in emergency situations, however, the need to establish a separate agency for this purpose is being considered by the Turkmen Government.

The Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan was represented in the survey by two experts (from the Department of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations and from Ashgabat City Branch of Department of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations).

As reported by both experts performance of their operating units is dependent on the accuracy and timeliness of hydrometeorological forecasts and HH warnings, but ranked it average to the extent it relates to the prevention and liquidation of consequences of the entire range of disasters. It should be noted that such a discreet assessment of weather-dependence in the sector

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is due the predominant role of seismic disasters preparedness and rescue operations, specific to Turkmenistan. By significance of impact, experts assigned their priority attention to floods and mudflows, and also strong winds (hurricane, squalls) in view the one-time damages resulting from their occurrence. Information on other EHHs and HHs is also monitored by Ministry of Defense.

Turkmenhydromet is the principal source of meteorological, hydrological, climatic and agrometeorological information used by emergency situations management and prevention. Turkmenhydromet provides this sector with current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month period), and EHHs and HHs warnings.

Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are used for day-to-day management purposes and emergency prediction. At present, HMI used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, by courier. In future, telephone messages from the forecaster on duty would be complemented by information delivered via fax.

According to the expert, the information presentation format was generally satisfactory for the currently available communication channels. It would be desirable to receive such information as a text (descriptive information) and as statistical data and maps.

The expert assessed the forecast quality, in terms of accuracy and timeliness, as well as reliability and timeliness of HH forecasts and warnings and information on the area to be affected by HHs and the event duration, as ‘satisfactory’. This satisfactory assessment should be qualified by noting that sectoral experts are well aware of the NMHSs constraints and therefore assess its performance based on their understanding what is achievable in current circumstances. Another factor is lack of knowledge of modern hydrometeorological products by sectoral experts. In interpreting expert assessment the team therefore concentrated on areas recommended for improvement. Delivered information is used on a daily basis throughout the year. The expert considered that it would be useful for HH warnings to include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to mitigate the impact.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of Civil Defense and Rescue operations entities under the Ministry of Defense: precipitation, wind speed, including wind gusts and they assessed it as satisfactory. At the same time accuracy of information on air temperature, floods and mudflows, and hydrometeorological hazards warnings was found unsatisfactory. The expert also noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality, and with an appropriate lead time, were an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning.

Due to the lack of methodologies and experts damage from EHHs in monetary terms is not assessed.

According to the experts the desirable lead time of hydrological forecasts is 10 days and one month, for meteorological forecasts 7 days and one month to allow emergency mitigation measures to be taken.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the efficient operation: temperature (current, daily minimum and maximum), precipitation (rain, hail, snow) and its duration and intensity; wind speed (including wind gust speed), hydrometeorological hazards (floods, mudflows, etc).

Current efficiency of the use of hydrometeorological information by the sector was assessed as satisfactory. At the same time it is noted that the use of adequate quality services and forecasts is an important component of improving emergency prevention operations and long-term planning.

The responsible departments of the Ministry of Defense maintain accounting of damage caused by EHHs and HHs, but does not assess economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information. It is explained primarily by the current lack of concern and small need to do this job as well as by the lack of relevant assessment techniques and qualified specialists.

Climate information available in Turkmenhydromet is used to study trends in the frequency of EHH and HH occurrence associated with climate change.

Experts expressed strong support for modernization of Turkmenhydromet, as they realize that its current technical capacity is inadequate to provide information products with proper accuracy and timeliness, technologies applied are out of date and specially note need in satellite data.

3.2.3. AGRICULTURE Agriculture was presented in survey by experts from Scientific and Research Institute for Agriculture (crop planting) and Association “Tyrkmenmallary” (animal husbandry).

Expert representing crop planting sector assessed his sector as strongly dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards. Crop plantations are affected by almost all types of hydrometeorological events. The expert rated them as follows according to the degree of impact: dry (hot) winds, very hot weather, strong wind, heavy rain, severe frost, spring frosts, hailstorm, heavy snowfalls, dust storms, dust cyclones, drought, floods and mudflows, and fall frosts.

Expert from animal husbandry sector assessed its weather-dependence at average level, and noted that most critical HHs in terms of damage are dust storms, dry hot winds, heavy rainfalls, hailstorms, dust cyclones, strong wind, drought, severe frosts and snowfall.

In addition to hydrometeorological information provided by Turkmenhydromet, the sector also relies on information obtained from media. Turkmenhydromet provides agricultural users with current information, mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), longrange forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (generalized for 1month and 1year periods), and EHHs/HHs warnings. In animal husbandry users also provided with short-range forecasts (up to 3 days),

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HMI and forecasts are used in crop planting for optimal operational performance; in animal husbandry they also apply hydrometeorological data for long-term planning.

Among the factors/reasons that do not facilitate the use of hydrometeorological data expert from animal husbandry sector noted lack of: (i) regulatory documents (instructions, manuals, guidance) on how to use services and information provided Turkmenhydromet, (ii) basic skills allowing hydrometeorological data to be used to achieve economic benefits/reduction of probable damage (to take timely informed management decisions contributing to reduction of damage); (iii) information on types of sectorspecific products and services that Turkmenhydromet can provide.

At present, HMI used by the expert from crop planting is obtained via radio, and also from TV channels, and newspapers. In future, it would be desirable to have internet and email channels. Expert from animal husbandry relies on courier delivery and fax.

Expert from animal husbandry sector noted that it would be desirable to receive information of EHHs/HHs via telephone, fax, and for herders from distant pastures – by radio.

In general, the sectoral experts assessed the information presentation format as satisfactory, and in future they would prefer text (descriptive information) and maps format.

Agricultural experts assessed the forecast and warnings accuracy and timeliness as satisfactory, but information on the area to be affected by HH and the event duration needs to be improved.

The experts found it expedient for HH warnings to include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to mitigate the impact.

Forecasts are important during the year, but especially important for crop planting in spring and summer.

In the experts’ opinion, increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information delivery, forecasts and warnings would allow timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, reliable weather forecasts with a lead time of 1 day would give an opportunity to drive herds to secure locations, 1 week and 1 month lead time would make it possible to lay forage and fuel in a stock, and secure water supply. For crop planting, reliable forecasts with 5-7-day lead time if they predict flood and mudflows, hot dry winds, ground frosts prevention activities may be undertaken.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the agricultural sector: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); air humidity; precipitation (rain, hail, snow); and precipitation duration and intensity, wind intensity and directions, EHH warnings. For animal husbandry sector, optimization of routing operations need higher accuracy and lead-time of EHHs warnings, forecasts on food reserves on pastures and establishing meteorological stations in distant pasture lands.

The current efficacy of HMI uses in agriculture was assessed by the experts as ‘satisfactory’. It was also noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time was an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning.

Both experts expressed readiness of their sectors to pay for hydrometeorological services customized to meet specific needs of their operations.

Currently in the sector damage accounting is run in crop planting, but they do not assess economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information. It is explained primarily by the lack of relevant assessment techniques and qualified specialists.

Crop planting sector uses at present climate information to take sector-specific measures to improve the performance taking into account climate change, in animal husbandry those activities are limited due to the absence of methodological guidance and skills.

Agricultural experts would recommend to Turkmenhydromet: • To improve types of hydrometeorological products and services (forecasts, warnings, advisories) taking into accounts the needs of the sector.

• To increase a lead time of forecast information being delivered/provided • To show the importance of the efficient use of hydrometeorological information and forecasts with a view of gaining additional economic benefits for the economy in general as well as for specific segments of the economy and for the population of Tajikistan on the basis of: - ad hoc consultations with representatives of specific users, - development of the Internetsite of Turkmenhydromet containing information on impacts of unfavorable weather events on various sectors of the economy and on the population (it should also contain guidance materials, recommendations, description of international experience).

• To sign a contract or some agreement on provision of specialized hydrometeorological services, i.e., provision of information customized to meet the needs of the sector • To discuss implementation of joint hydrometeorological observations (joint gauging posts and stations) in points/on areas which are of priority interest for the sector.

More specifically, the following hydrometeorological parameters and hazards affecting sector should be monitored by Turkmenhydromet with adequate accuracy and lead-time: air temperature, soil surface temperature, temperature at the depth of tillering node, severe frost, strong heat, frosts during vegetation period, strong wind, squall, whirlwind rain during hay time, heavy rain, sustained heavy rain, heavy snow, blizzard, heavy fog, glazed frost/rime/ accretion, excessive soil moistening, soil drought, air drought, dry winds, very thick snow cover, very dense snow cover, shell ice on soil surface, floods and mudflows,

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Hydrometeorological information products needed to meet sector needs include: • Storm warnings, • Agrotelegrams, • Daily and 10-day agrometeorological bulletins, • Weather forecasts (short and long-range), multi-purpose agrometeorological forecasts (stored moisture for spring season, garden plants blossom, crop productivity, wintering of autumn sawn and other crops, ripening period, pest occurrence).

• Seasonal agrometeorological review • Evaluation of agrometeorological conditions of agricultural crop growing • Stored moisture by early spring • Condition of winter crops before winter • Productivity and gross harvest of raw cotton • Ripening period of fruit crops • Ripening period of winter wheat • Explication of young mulberry leaves • Blossom period of perennial cultivated first-growth grass • Bursting of first cotton balls • Productivity and gross harvest of winter wheat.

• Hydrological forecasts (water content of rovers and afflux in large reservoirs): for vegetation period (April-September), by y months of vegetation period, low-water season (October-March) • 5-7-day forecasts for rivers in irrigated farming areas • 10-day and quarterly forecasts of water inflow (in large reservoirs)

3.2.4. WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION The water use and consumption system in Turkmenistan is governed by two Ministries. Drinking water supply is managed by the local authorities while Ministry of Health and Medical Industry is responsible for control of its quality. The Ministry of Water Economy is managing all irrigation water management from the point of origin (national waters) or delivery to Turkmenistan (transboundary waters) up to the farm.

Agriculture is entirely dependent on irrigation. 97% of total water withdrawal of Turkmenistan’s (totally 24 billion m3 annually) limited water is used for irrigation, efficient management of water use and supply system is of vital importance for Turkmen economy, which is heavily constrained by the availability of water. Declining soils and water quality/quantity have significant implication for future agricultural development possibly thwarting plans to diversify the agricultural base from one predominantly dependent on cotton to one that will enable the country’s food requirements to be met.

In the survey the water sector was represented by an expert from the Ministry of Water Economy, which is responsible for construction, operation and maintenance of all facilities necessary for the management of water for irrigation and collection and disposal of collector drainage water. The Ministry is comprised of several central departments, including those responsible for the construction works and operation of the Karakum Canal and Turkmen Lake. The Department of Water Systems Operations is responsible for water deliveries from points of origin (source) up to the farms (users).

During the survey and subsequent discussions, experts of the Ministry of Water Industry emphasized that high quality current and archived HMI were exceptionally important for day-to-day management (optimal performance) and long-term planning of the water sector, and design and maintenance of related facilities. HMI is used on a routine basis several times a day during the whole year.

The experts divided hydrometeorological hazards (by the impact and one-time critical damages) into three groups. Each year the water sector of the Turkmenistan economy suffers heavy losses from floods and mudflows, droughts, heavy rainfalls, severe frosts and very hot weather, heavy snowfalls and hailstorms. Damages associated with strong winds, and fall and spring frosts were included in the second echelon of hazards. Dust storms and cyclones, and dry (hot) winds affect the sector but to less extent.

Turkmenhydromet is the principal source of hydrometeorological information used by water sector specialists in their professional activity, but they also use mass media and Internet information sources. Turkmenhydromet provides the sector with current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), and long-range forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month period), and EHH and HH warnings.

At present, hydrometeorological information used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, as well as by courier. They also use Internet and TV channels for obtaining additional information. In future, the same channels are expected to be used for communication, but also complemented by fax transmissions.

According to the expert, the information presentation format was generally satisfactory for the currently available communication channels. Preferred data presentation format covers statistical data, descriptive (textual) format, and also maps.

Based on his current perception and knowledge of hydrometeorological products, the water sector expert assessed the quality of forecasts and warnings accuracy, timeliness and spatial coverage quality as ‘satisfactory (i.e., it should be improved)’ in terms

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of accuracy and timeliness. The expert suggested that it would be critically important for HH warnings to include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to mitigate the impact. This would allow optimization of activities designed to increase the yield and improve the quality of agricultural crops.

Water sector considers the wide range of hydrometeorological parameters for the optimal operation of the water resources management and irrigation sector: air temperature, precipitation, precipitation (rain, hail, and snow), wind velocity and directions, and weather hazards (floods and mudflows, ground frosts, hot dry winds). The current level of accuracy of forecasts and warnings is assessed as adequate.

As noted by the expert, increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information, forecasts and warnings would be an important factor for adequate and timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, reliable meteorological forecasts for wind gusts, hurricane, dust storms with a lead time of 3-7 days would make it possible to prepare column and climbing cranes, excavators and other machinery, have staff on site. Thus, reliable forecasts of floods and mudflows with lead-time of 10 days or 1-month period will allow to secure spare parts and materials, prepare and relocation of machinery to safe locations. The same timeliness of HMI on heavy rainfalls, very hot weather, severe frosts and heavy snowfall would allow for adequate weather resistant preparation of machinery and personal on sites.

The current efficacy of HMI uses by the water sector was assessed by the expert as ‘high’. It was also noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time are an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning. But sector’s entities are not prepared to pay for the receipt of customized information.

At present, water sector entities assess damage from weather conditions and HH. They also consider at present climate information to take sector-specific measures to improve the performance taking into account climate change.

The Water sector expert assessed HMI provisions as satisfactory, but would recommend to Turkmenhydromet mostly the same priority activities as agricultural expert (see 3.2.2). He also suggested to discuss implementation of joint agrometeorological observations and crop and pasture productivity forecasts.

Currently Turkmenhydromet maintains rather close contacts with the Ministry of Water Economy. Nevertheless, gaining benefits from potential NMHS modernization is limited by bilateral constraint. From the sectoral side, those problems stem from the current poor conditions of irrigation and inefficient drainage infrastructure that allow for estimated up to 50% losses of water withdrawal routed to agriculture. Acquisition of improved HMI will need higher skills of personal and targeted adjustments in practice of planning, design and construction of the facilities, routine operational activities and development of sector-specific adaptation measures to mitigate climate changes.

From NMHS side, the opportunities to meet the water sector requirements are questioned by current status of Turkmenhydromet observation network, forecasting capacities, staffing problems. As notes ECA Weather and Climate Services regional review (World Bank, 2008), the forecast needs of water resources management point to a need for weather models that are linked to hydrological models; for a representative network of rain gauges and stream gauges reporting data in real time; for digitization of historical weather and hydrological records; seasonal forecasting; and climate projection. Radar data is important to hydrology, providing a more representative sample of precipitation than rain gauges are able to provide. As a downstream country Turkmenistan, needs data from its upstream neighbors on river flow to project water resources and water quality.

3.2.5. OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY The country’s oil and gas industry is the foundation of its fuel and energy sector.

Turkmenistan has substantial reserves of oil and natural gas in the Caspian Sea area and in the northern and eastern sections of the country. Oil fields and the associated oil industry are centered in the Caspian plain in the Western Turkmenistan and off-shore oil fields to the west of the Cheleken Peninsula in the Caspian Sea. Current gas production in Turkmenistan is primarily from On-shore and mature fields in eastern Turkmenistan that were initially developed in the Soviet period. Major investment is required in order to maintain output from existing fields and to develop new reserves22. While the bulk of Turkmenistan gas reserves are presumed to be on-shore, off-shore Caspian gas production could be in the range of 15-25 billion m3/y by 2030. Investment in the upstream will determine Turkmenistan‘s ability to support multiple export routes (IEA, 2008).

Further plans for dynamic development of hydrocarbons extraction on the Turkmen shelf of the Caspian sea and corresponding development of distribution network for domestic and exports deliveries. In 2008 the total length of gas pipelines was estimated at about 6.5 thous. km, and oil pipelines – 1.5 thous. km. It will need for adequate hydrometeorological services ensuring safety of drilling operations, oil and gas transportation systems, and design, construction and maintenance of sector’s facilities and infrastructure.

22 Estimates of Turkmenistan’s natural gas reserves vary considerably. Since 2006, Turkmenistan has announced new gas discoveries, the South Yolotan and Osman fields in the south-east of the country, and in August 2008 also a new gas condensate field, South Gutlyayak. Representatives of Turkmenistan have put total gas reserves in the country at more than 20 trillion cubic meters, an amount approaching the range of proven reserves in Iran or Qatar – and far more than the 2.7 trillion cubic meters included by BP in its statistical review (2008).

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Oil and gas complex of Turkmenistan includes state concerns “Turkmengaz”, “Turkmenneft”, “Turkmengeologia”, “Turkmenneftegazstroy” and oil refineries, which are managed by the Ministry of Oil and Gas and Mineral Resources.

Expert from State concern “Turkmengaz” represented the Oil and gas complex in the users’ needs assessment survey.

In general dependence of the sector on weather conditions and hazardous meteorological events was assessed as high. For its operation floods, mudflows, severe frosts, and spring and fall ground frosts are of critical importance.

In its operations “Turkmengaz” uses hydrometeorological information and forecasts provided by Turkmenhydromet. However the expert indicated that hydrometeorological information was not used efficiently due to the following reasons: • lack of guidance documents (guides, manuals, recommendations) on how to use services and information provided by Turkmenhydromet ; • lack of basic skills in using hydrometeorological data to gain economic benefits/reduce probable damage (to take timely and relevant management decisions to facilitating damage reduction); • no possibility to use the assistance of professionals, whose number is either not sufficient or there are no professional hydrometeorologists on the staff at all; • no information on types of products and services that could be provided by Turkmenhydromet ; • no access to relevant communication systems to be able to receive hydrometeorological data in the required operational mode.

• products provided by Turkmenhydromet do not need current practical needs of the sector.

The sector uses the following products of Turkmenhydromet: current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), climate information (generalized for 1-month period), and warnings of hydrometeorological hazards for operational management (to ensure optimal operation).

At present hydrometeorological information is delivered by hydrometeorological information used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, as well as by fax.

The expert assessed the format of information presentation as satisfactory with account to communication channels currently available. Textual form (descriptive information) of presentation was mentioned as a desirable option.

The weather information is accessed on a daily basis. Most critical is winter period, while the weather parameters are monitored around a year.

Accuracy and timeliness of forecasts was assessed as satisfactory. Accuracy and timeliness of EHH and HH forecasts and warnings including information on the area to be affected and EHH/HH duration were assessed as fairly low, and should be improved considerably.

According to the expert the forecast reliability/accuracy is unsatisfactory for such elements as floods and mudflows. The desirable sector needs in air temperature accuracy is ±0.1oC, 3-day lead-time for forecasts of mudflows and floods, and also EHH and HH forecasts and warnings The expert believes that better lead time of meteorological and hydrological information, forecasts and warnings will enable timely management decisions on protective measures to be taken. For example, 7day lead time meteorological forecast will allow strengthening portholes for water and sediments to be turned off. 1 month lead time forecasts will make it possible to take construct to protective structures on specific sites.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the electricity industry facilities: air temperature (daily maximum and minimum), atmospheric pressure, and hydrometeorological hazards (floods, mudflows, frosts, dust storms, ground frosts).

According to the expert the effective use of hydrometeorological information (of adequate quality and timeliness) should be an important factor for the improvement of operation and long-term planning of the sector. However he could not clearly specific formulate requirements to hydrometeorological information needed to make operation and planning optimal, other than note the need in accuracy of forecasts.

“Turkmengas” maintains accounting of damage from EHH and HH impacts. Expert marked that they do assess economic benefits of the HMI use, but it seems that the answer meant financial assessment of actual losses due to EHHs and HHs. Climate information is also used by the sector for elaborating sector-specific measures aimed to improve operation with account climate change projections.

In general hydrometeorological services provided by Turkmenhydromet were assessed as satisfactory, and the expert confirmed his sector’s readiness to pay for HMI tailored to the sectoral needs.

Recommendations to Turkmenhydromet dealt with the needs: • To increase accuracy lead time of forecast information being delivered/provided • To discuss a contract or some agreement with Turkmenhydromet on provision of specialized hydrometeorological services, i.e., provision of information customized to meet the needs of Turkmengaz.

More specifically, hydrometeorological information product for the sector should include: • Forecasts for the current day, 24 hours (with half-day division), next 2 days, week, month.

• Heightspecific air temperature forecasts.

• Storm warnings (snowstorm, fog, heavy rain, , glazed frost/rime accretion, thunderstorm, wind 15 m/s and greater, air

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temperature below -25°С, zero-crossing periods).

• Hydrological forecasts and factual hydrological information.

• Marine forecasts (surge depending on rough-water qualities, upsurge-downsurge, harbor seiche, Ice forecasts, Actual (observation) data on flow conditions in the port area) • Climate and hydrological data series for specific sites and areas

3.2.6. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION State Corporation “Turkmenenergo” of the Ministry of Energy and Industry is operating now 8 state owned electric power stations with total installed capacity of 3,341.6 MW. Principal fuel at the power stations is natural gas. All the power stations are supplied with gas from nearest gas field.

The annual consumption of natural gas at these stations is approximately 4.5 billion m3. The use of reserve fuel – furnace fuel oil and diesel oil – is less than 1%, and also delivered from domestic oil refineries. Electricity output in 2006 was estimated in 12.8 billion kWh. Refurbishing of the power generation and distribution systems in the early 2000s, construction of new highvoltage power transmission lines ensured the stable and reliable functioning of power engineering system of Turkmenistan and considerably increased its exports potential. That process is expected to improve generating efficiency by 40 percent starting in 2011.

Turkmenistan is a net exporter of electric power the neighboring countries, transmitting around 1.4 billion kWh in 2006.

Turkmenistan is the energy abundant state and it can potentially produce 17 billion kWh of electric power and export 47% of this volume. Turkmenistan exports electricity to Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey and Tajikistan. The volumes depend on the needs in these countries. The power transmission lines were constructed to the cities of Afghanistan: Mazari Sharif, Andhoi, Hodjadukki, Shibergan (110 kV). Two power transmission lines (110 kV and 220kV) connect the Turkmen and Iranian power grids. All this allows to considerably increasing the export of electricity to the neighboring countries.

The electric power industry is strongly dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards. The electric power expert rated them as follows according to the degree of impact: floods and mudflows, strong wind (hurricane, squall), heavy rain, severe frost, dust storms.

Turkmenhydromet is the principal source of hydrometeorological information used by Turkmenenergo, but information from Internet is also used. The sector receives short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), and EHH and HH warnings for optimal performance of operational management.

At present, the information used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, by courier, and via Internet. According to the expert, the information presentation format is generally satisfactory for the currently available communication channels. However, it would be desirable to receive such information as a text (descriptive information) and maps format.

The expert assessed the forecast and EHHs and HHs warnings quality as ‘fairly low’ (i.e., should be improved)’ in terms of accuracy, and as ‘satisfactory’ in terms of timeliness. This may allow estimates of financial losses from specific types of HH to be determined. But currently entities under Turkmenenergo do not assess damage from weather conditions and HH, including financial losses due to the lack methodological guidelines.

Expert noted that high importance of hydrometeorological services required by the electricity industry throughout the year.

In the expert’s opinion, increasing the lead time of meteorological and hydrological information delivery, forecasts and warnings would allow more timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, a meteorological forecasts with a lead time of 1 day organization of duties and equipment and machinery preparedness.

Accuracy of Information on air temperature is note as satisfactory. All other parameters are not satisfactory (atmospheric pressure, wind directions and speed, ground frosts, hail, floods and mudflows, dry hot winds, and EHHs and HHs warnings. The following hydrometeorological parameters were considered most essential for the optimal operation of the electricity industry facilities: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); precipitation (rain, hail, snow); precipitation duration and intensity; and hydrometeorological hazards (floods and mudflows, etc.).

The expert believes that Tukmenhydromet current capacity is insufficient to meet the existing needs of the sector. The electricity industry wants to have water resources forecast data for next 2-3 years to make coordinated intergovernmental decisions on water/power issues but there is no scientific basis for such forecasts yet.

Continuous monitoring of weather conditions (air humidity, precipitation (snow, wind, and glaze ice) and its intensity, strong winds and hurricanes, EHHs and HHs warnings is also necessary for electricity power plants safe operation with a view to timely prevention of accidents.

Current use of available HMI by sector is rated as satisfactory, and the effective use of hydrometeorological information (of adequate quality and timeliness) should be an important factor for the improvement of operation and long-term planning of the sector. However the expert could not clearly formulate specific requirements to hydrometeorological information needed to make operation and planning optimal, other than note the need in better accuracy of forecasts.

In general hydrometeorological services provided by Turkmenhydromet were assessed as satisfactory, and the expert confirmed his sector’s readiness to pay for HMI tailored to the sectoral needs.

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More specifically, hydrometeorological information product for the sector should include: • Forecasts for 24 hours and next 2 days. Heightspecific air temperature forecasts.

• Storm warnings (thunderstorm, glazed frost and rime, snowstorm, air temperature below -30°С and above +30°С, heavy rains, wet snow, zero-crossing periods, fog, hydrological forecasts and factual hydrological information.

• Climate and hydrological data series for specific sites and areas, and also climate change projection for planned investment project (plant facilities and distribution network).

3.2.7. COMMUNAL SERVICES Housing and communal services as a complicated system of enterprises and services for population needs in heat and power supply, water supply and sewerage, housing maintenance, etc.

The expert who participated in the survey represented OJSC “Ashgabatteplo”, which manages heat, steam and hot water supply to users in Ashgabat.

In early 2000s in Ashgabat city, 52% of all heating is provided from centralized system. It is about 60 boiler houses belonging to Ashgabat hyakimlik (municipality). Around 8% of users get the hot water from the centralized system of heating. The total capacity of boiler houses, with taking into consideration of hot water supply, is 565 Gcal/h. With the norm 100 million m3/year of natural gas consumption, the real consumption is 153 million m3 per year. The total length of heating nets of the centralized system as a whole in Ashgabat city is 465 km, of which 61% is laid under the ground and 39% – over the ground. The largest part of surface nets is not protected with heat insulation that causes heat losses in a volume of 55850 Gcal over the heating period (Ministry of Nature Protection of Turkmenistan, 2006) The heating networks were generally assessed by the expert as ‘fairly moderately’ dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards. The expert ranked the dependence of the sector on affects from HHs as follows: damage to fixed assets is related to severe frost, floods and mudflows, strong wind (hurricane, squall). Less damaging, but also significant are impacts from heavy rainfalls and heavy snowfalls. The sector’s production activities are affected, first of all, by spring and fall frosts and.

The principal sources of hydrometeorological (meteorological) information used by Ashgabatteplo include Turkmenhydromet and the internet. From Turkmenhydromet, the sector uses current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), and EHH and HH warnings.

Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are used for only operational optimal performance purposes for preparation of boiler equipment quantity and heat distribution network operating conditions.

At present, HMI used by the sector is delivered by Turkmenhydromet via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty. Information from Internet, TV-channels and newspapers is also monitored. In future, communication means/channels should be diversified to include delivery by courier and fax transmission. The expert assessed the information presentation format as generally satisfactory for the currently available communication channels. It would be desirable to receive such information as a text (descriptive information).

Though hydrometeorological services are required by the heat power industry throughout the year high quality forecast data are critical winter for adjustment of heat production and supply volumes.

In the expert’s opinion, increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information delivery, forecasts and warnings would allow timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, a reliable meteorological forecast with a lead time of 3 days would give an opportunity to put in operation reserve capacities of heat production.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the heating networks: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); precipitation (rain, snow); wind speed (inc. gusts), and hydrometeorological hazards (floods and mudflows, etc The expert noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality, and with an appropriate lead time, are an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning.

Currently damage accounting due to HHs is run by Ashgabatteplo entities, but they do not assess economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information. It is explained primarily by the lack of relevant assessment techniques and qualified specialists.

In general, the expert assessed hydrometeorological services provided by Turkmenhydromet as ‘fairly satisfactory’ and confirmed the sector’s preparedness to pay for hydrometeorological services customized to meet the specific needs of Ashgabatteplo.

As to the future use of Turkmenhydromet products and services, the expert from the Ashgabatteplo noted that: • To improve types of hydrometeorological products and services (forecasts, warnings, advisories) taking into accounts the needs of the sector.

• To discuss a contract or some agreement with Turkmenhydromet on provision of specialized hydrometeorological services, i.e., provision of information customized to meet the needs of Ashgabatteplo.

More specifically, hydrometeorological information product for the sector should include: • Forecasts for the current day, 24 hours next 2 days, week, month.

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• Actual information on meteorological parameters (daily average, maximum and minimum air temperature, wind direction/ speed, HHs) • Specialized average air temperature forecasts.

• Storm warnings (snowstorm, fog, heavy rain, , glazed frost/rime accretion, thunderstorm, wind 15 m/s and greater, air temperature below -25°С, zero-crossing periods).

• Hydrological forecasts and factual hydrological information.

• HH warnings and forecasts.

3.2.8. TRANSPORT The transport sector is represented by: road transport, aviation, marine transport, railways, pipelines, and roads. During the last decade considerable investments were channeled to rehabilitation, modernization and new construction to all subsectors of the Turkmenistan transportation system to meet the requirements of the growing economy and to gain the benefits from the country’s transit geographical position23.

In 2006 the transport system included 2,440 km of railroads with 1.520 m gauge, most of which runs close to the northern and southern borders. The Tedjen–Serakhs–Mashhad railroad, built in 1996 by Turkmenistan and Iran, has become a vital link of Central Asian, Russian, and European railroad systems with South Asia and the Persian Gulf. The TransKarakum Railway, a direct link between Ashgabat and Dashoguz has been recently completed by halving travel time between the southern and northern borders. Urban transportation systems are being upgraded in Ashgabat, Dashoguz, and Mary.

In 2002 Turkmenistan had an estimated 13,64 thous. km of roads, about 12.24 thous. km of which were paved. One major highway runs westward from Turkmenabat to Mary, along the Iranian border through Ashgabat and then to Turkmenbashi on the Caspian Sea; a second runs north-westward from the Afghanistan border through Turkmenabat, along the Uzbekistan border to Dashoguz. In the early 2000s, major road-building projects improved sections of the highway connecting Ashgabat with Turkmenbashi and Mary. A major highway between Ashgabat and Dashoguz, is part of a plan to link the capital with major points in all five provinces.

The main port at Turkmenbashi on the Caspian Sea is being renovated. Main shipping lines cross the Caspian to Astrakhan in Russia and Baku in Azerbaijan. Smaller Caspian ports are Alaja, Chekelen, and Ekarem. Plans call for expansion of Ekarem into a second major Caspian port. In 2008 Turkmenistan had seven merchant marine vessels of more than 1,000 tons displacement, of which four were cargo ships, two were oil tankers, one was for refrigerated cargo.

The main inland waterways are the Amu Darya River, which runs along the northern border, and the Karakum Canal, which runs from east to west from the Amu Darya near the Afghanistan border through Mary and Ashgabat to Turkmenbashi on the Caspian coast. The 1,300-kilometer canal, designed mainly for irrigation, is navigable for up to 450 kilometers from its Caspian terminus. Because water is withdrawn for irrigation, the Amu Darya is navigable only about 250 kilometers downstream from the Afghanistan border to Turkmenabat.

In the mid-1990s, the Ashgabat airport was enlarged and modernized. Smaller international airports are located at Dashoguz and Turkmenabat. International flights are available from Ashgabat to Armenia, China, Germany, India, Ukraine, Russia, Belorussia, Thailand, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

All the elements of the transportation system of the country are exposed to hydrometeorological hazards and adverse weather conditions. Safety of road and railway transportation, efficiency of rollingstock maintenance, timeliness of prevention measures strongly depend on reliability of hydrometeorological forecasts and warnings, in particular on snowstorms with snowfall and strong wind; severe frosts (below -25° С) and high temperatures (above +25°С); glazed frost; rains leading to erosion of railroad bed; floods, high water level during spring tides, ice jams on rivers; thunderstorms; fogs; mudflows; dust storms.

Marine and river traffic conditions heavily depends on presence of ice on navigation routes (concentration, shape, thickness); fog, scotch mist hindering navigation; heavy precipitation (rain, snow); hindering navigation; storms (with parameters exceeding rough-water qualities); ice accretion on ship; harbor seiche (in the port area); upsurge-downsurge (in the port area.

Transportation sector was presented in a survey by and expert from the Ministry of Railway Transport.

The sector was generally assessed by the expert as moderately dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards, but they use meteorological and hydrological forecasts and warnings in their routine work daily during the year, and also consider climatic information. The expert noted that all hydrometeorological hazards, besides drought, affect operations in sector. Major hazards group included floods and mudflows, strong wind (hurricane, squall), dust storms and hurricanes, heavy precipitation (rains and snow) and hail, very hot weather and severe frosts. Less damaging are dry hot winds, fall and spring frosts.

The principal sources of hydrometeorological information used by the railroad sector include Turkmenhydromet, and also mass media. Turkmenhydromet provides the sector with short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), long-range forecasts (from 4 to 6 months climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month and 1-year periods), and EHH/HH warnings.

23 Data on transport statistics is based on CIA – The World Fact Book Turkmenistan, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworldfactbook/geos/TX.html assessed on 26/02/2009, and Library of Congress – Country profile, 2007.

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Hydrometeorological information and forecast is used for optimal performance and design of facilities. At present, HMI used by the sector is delivered from Turkmenhydromet via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty. They also monitor information available via radio and mass media (TV-channels, newspapers).

In general, the expert assessed the format of information presentation by Turkmenhydromet as ‘satisfactory’ but did not indicate its preferences for the future.

The expert assessed the forecasts and warnings quality as ‘satisfactory’ both in terms of accuracy and timeliness.

If HH warnings could include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to mitigate the implications, it would allow impact reduction.

According to the expert, forecast reliability/accuracy was currently satisfactory for air temperature, air pressure, precipitation, wind speed/direction, for floods and mudflows, and HH warnings.

Increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information delivery, forecast and warnings would allow timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, a reliable meteorological forecast with a lead time of 1 days and hydrological forecast for 10 days is assumed to be enough to warn all units and take preparatory actions to mitigate the impact.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the road sector: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); precipitation (rain, hail, snow); precipitation duration and intensity; wind speed, including wind gusts; visibility; and hydrometeorological hazards (floods and mudflows, etc.).

The expert noted that using HMI and forecast of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time was an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning. Accurate and quick delivery of hydrometeorological information to the railroad sector entities is a prerequisite for its efficient and timely use.

The sector units assess damage from weather conditions and HHs; however, they do not assess the cost of benefits from HMI use as, according to the expert, “it requires methodological guidance”.

The expert generally assessed hydrometeorological services provided by Turkmenhydromet as ‘fairly satisfactory’. At the same time, the expert expressed a categorical refusal to feebased arrangements of provision of Turkmenhydromet ‘s services for his sector.

Recommendations to Turkmenhydromet were: • To increase a lead time of forecast information being delivered/provided • To show the importance of the efficient use of hydrometeorological information and forecasts with a view of gaining additional economic benefits for the economy in general as well as for specific segments of the economy and for the population of Turkmenistan on the basis of: - ad hoc consultations with representatives of specific users, - Development of the Internet-site of Turkmenhydromet containing information on impacts of unfavorable weather events on various sectors of the economy and on the population (it should also contain guidance materials, recommendations, description of international experience).

3.3. EVALUATION OF SECTOR NEEDS AND NMHS CAPACITY The results of the survey, consultations with NMHS staff and sector experts, and discussion of HMI needs of weather-dependent sectors of the economy at the consultation workshop on improving the efficacy of weather and climate service delivery in Turkmenistan (Ashgabat, September 30, 2008) demonstrated that the pressing issue of hydrometeorological service improvement was well understood by Turkmenhydromet (the provider of products and services) and supported by all key users and stakeholders.

Many users need information that Turkmenhydromet cannot provide at present. Users are often not well informed about NMHS has serious weaknesses such as: a low-density network of weather and gauging stations resulting in inadequate coverage of the high-altitude zone by meteorological observations; an almost complete absence of automated technical facilities, weather radars, and modern technologies and means for remote data processing and telecommunication; and critical conditions of Turkmenhydromet facilities and data archive.

The situation has a negative impact on the quality of observation data and forecasts (especially forecasts of hydrometeorological disasters), on how efficiently public, sector-specific and user needs can be met, and how the country can fulfill its international and regional obligations, including those under the Global Observation System.

A discussion during Turkmenhydromet specialists with major users and stakeholders was a pioneer event in opening a dialog with interested stakeholders. It stimulated agreeing and recognitions the following aspects for consideration and potential followup activities: 1. The importance of mobilizing the experts from specific ministries and agencies to identify the users’ demand for hydrometeorological information and services, which would be valuable both for the Turkmenhydromet itself and for the above agencies. The above work shall include identifying an optimum level of State funding to minimize any economic losses and to identify the most efficient investment categories.

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2. The workshop attendants have pointed at the current poor technical capacity of the Turkmenhydromet, which has had an adverse impact on the quality of hydrometeorological services and resulted in high economic losses. Also, the workshop attendants have stressed that the above economic losses have been partly due to an insufficient interaction between the Turkmenhydromet and the principal recipients of hydrometeorological information. In view of the above, upgrading the Turkmenhydromet should be a necessary and timely task.

3. The advisability of having the World Bank’s support in implementing any integrated projects in the area of hydrometeorology.

Consolidated users’ recommendations to Turkmenhydromet focused to enhance: • Strengthening the mechanisms for interacting with the users including the development of a feedback system (probably using any new devices and equipment); • Attracting the experts from any weather-dependant sectors to contribute to a more detailed review of the major categories of modernization and technical support to the Turkmenhydromet and its branches; • Intensifying the cooperation with key sectors of economy and housing & communal sector in calculating any economic benefits (including any losses prevented) from using any hydrometeorological information; • Developing the baseline principles and mechanisms for interacting with various user categories in terms of providing any data and products for a value received; • Intensifying the attraction of the most weather-dependant branches of economy (fuel & energy complex, housing & communal complex etc.) for co-funding of any programs for targeted collection and provision of hydrometeorological information; • Promoting the cooperation with specific branches of economy in developing any sectoral methods for calculating an economic effect (economic efficiency) from using any hydrometeorological information & forecasts, and in systematizing the collection of data on economic damages due to specific hydrometeorological events for the national economy in general and for each sector of economy by summarizing any losses from all the hazardous hydrometeorological events and adverse weather conditions; and • Promoting the aspects of efficient use of hydrometeorological information in order to secure any supplementary economic benefits for the national economy in general and for specific economic sectors and population of Turkmenistan on the basis of: - implementing any targeted consulting events involving the representatives of specific users, and - developing the Turkmenhydromet web site to feature any hydrometeorological information including that related to the impact of any adverse weather conditions on various branches of economy and population(guidelines, recommendations, and international experience)

3.4. SUMMARY The results of the survey, consultations with NMHS staff and sector experts, and discussion of HMI needs of weather-dependent sectors of the economy at the consultation workshop revealed that there is a real gap in Turkmenhydromet/users interaction.

NMHS-sectoral users dialog is at a very initial stage of understanding and clarification of potential benefits of the use of improved HMI. Specialized hydrometeorological services tailored to sectoral needs are very limited or even practically not existent. Each of the weather and climate sensitive sectors that contributed to this study reported that they used standard current information, shortrange forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), and very rare long-range forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (primarily generalized for 1month period), and EHH/HH warnings supplied by Turkmenhydromet. In general, their assessment of the quality, reliability and timeliness of the products and services provided by Turkmenhydromet ranged from fairly satisfactory to satisfactory. Improving hydrometeorological observations and the accuracy and means of delivery of forecast products and services is recognized amongst users as high priority. They also highlighted the importance of establishing the mechanisms for interacting with the users including the development of a feedback system and of including users in any modernization process to ensure that future products and services aligned with user needs.

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CHAPTER 4. ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE DELIVERY 4.1. GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUNDS OF ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT The economic assessment carried out under this study sought to estimate the potential aggregate benefits that accrue to business activities in the country from the improved quality (accuracy and timeliness) of the hydrometeorological information and services delivered by Turkmenhydromet following its modernization. The benefits associated with the economic value of hydrometeorological information for the household sector and improvement of human life and safety were not assessed.

The assessment approaches envisage generalization and calculation of country-wide losses from EHHs and HHs and estimation of possible variation of the share and absolute amount of incremental effects (benefits in terms of potentially avoided losses) due to more accurate and timely hydrometeorological information and forecasts as a result of modernization program. It was assumed that benefits of modernization will be realized during 7 years (implementation of the Program and effective operation of the new technologies, hardware and equipment, as well as the NMHS fixed assets at the postimplementation stage). Therefore, the potential returns on modernization investments were calculated by comparing aggregate amount of incremental benefits during the 7-year period and the programâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s costs.

Two modernization options were considered while elaborating recommendations for Turkmenhydromet24: (i) Large scale program of actions aimed at complex strengthening and technical upgrading (USD30.0 million), and implementation of activities to optimize the institutional structure, improve the scientific and methodological basis, provide professional upgrading of the staff, and establish quality control of hydrometeorological data; (ii) Low budget minimum option designed to retain the current critical capacity and strengthen cooperation with users (USD5.22 million).

The Large scale investment program option (USD30.0 million), that will help to upgrade Turkmenhydromet capacity to fairly good level is offered as the basic option in the assessment of economic benefits of investing in the Turkmenhydromet modernization.

It is expected that the basic option will be implemented within 4 years with maximum inflow of investments during third and fourth years of program implementation.

Economic losses were intended to be generalized and estimated on the basis of three independent approaches, namely meteorological risks assessment25, benchmarking method and sector-specific assessment . Initially, the team undertook economic assessment based on these approaches and reported preliminary results of assessment at the consultation workshop. Later it became apparent that basic underlying macroeconomic parameters used for the assessment such as national GDP, exchange rate and others are not reliable. This in turn made the results of economic assessment more problematic and therefore some of them are not presented in this report.

There were a number of additional complexities in the assessment of economic benefits for Turkmenistan even more complicated and scarce to that observed in the other countries of ECA region where the team has undertaken economic review of weather related damages.. One of major concerns is the absence of systematic recording of damage/losses (both in physical and value terms) incurred by the economy, its sectors and population from the entire range of EHHs and HHs, the team experienced difficulties in applying several complementary approaches to double check data and ensure the integrity of the results, due you the lack of interagency information exchange and information disclosure issues. Very often sectoral experts reported about the complete absence of the required data on records and economic assessment of losses in their sectors due to the lack of interest and guiding documentation (methodology) in sectoral decision-making process.

The economic efficacy of investing in the Turkmenhydromet modernization was assessed on the basis of the benchmarking, and some estimates from meteorological risk assessment where proxy data was available and seemed to be reliable. Interaction with experts from weather-dependant sectors was undergone to collect information for sector-specific assessment via dissemination of questionnaire and face-to-face interview. None of experts was able to provide any quantitative information on his/her sector or even expertsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments on the changes and potential sectoral benefits in terms of modernization of NMHS and improvement of hydrometeorological services provisions. The cost/benefit analysis was also conducted by applying the data on average annual losses calculated through the benchmarking assessments.

24

The rationale and description of the proposed modernization options are presented in Chapter 5 Sectorapproaches was developed and applied during preparation of the National hydrometeorological Modernization project in Russia (World Bank, 2004).

Benchmarking approach was employed through developing approaches of economic assessment for a sample of national meteorological and hydrological service modernization initiatives in Europe and Central Asia (World Bank, 2008c). Proposed approaches are far from being perfect and intended to estimate potential benefits of modernization under conditions of highly scarce and unreliable data.

25

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4.2. APPROACHHS TO ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS When preparing information for the assessment of economic benefits no statistical data on the value of damage caused by hydrometeorological hazards was available from the official sources of statistics (at the national level, in the ministries, agencies and in Turkmenhydromet). In order to obtain the corresponding information special consultations with Turkmenhydromet specialists and experts of the weather-dependent sectors were conducted.

The initial assessment of economic benefits was based on the benchmarking method developed in the course of the regional review of the ECA national hydrometeorological services (Tsirkunov V. et al, 2008c). This review was carried by the World Bank in 2005-2007 for the countries of Southern Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia), some Balkan countries (Albania and Serbia), as well as for the Republic of Belarus, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Most of these countries do not record data on the actual total and sector-specific economic losses caused by hydrometeorological hazards and unfavorable weather conditions.

Benchmarking was developed to estimate economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information and services for the national economy. The assessment was based on (i) available national official macroeconomic and sector-specific statistics; (ii) weather-dependence of the economy; (iii) vulnerability of the country’s territory to weather hazards26; (iv) the NMHS status and the quality of hydrometeorological service provision in a given surveyed country, and (v) the values of the key parameters obtained through the surveys of experts and studies carried out in other countries.

Benchmarking is a simplified method, and it does not require detailed analytical studies or time-consuming surveys. Despite the limitations in the application of this method, its findings provide a reasonable benchmark to identify the levels of direct economic losses from weather hazards and disasters, as well as the economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information in a specific country. A detailed description of the benchmarking approach, including its main assumptions and limitations, is given in Tsirkunov V. et al, 2006).

Benchmarking comprises a staged approach.

The first stage defines the average values of two key parameters, which are adjusted against the GDP of the country. These key parameters are: 1) The level of annual direct economic losses caused by hydrometeorological hazards as a share of GDP27; 2) The level of annual prevented losses (i.e. losses that are potentially avoided due to the use of improved weather forecasts and warnings as a result of modernization) expressed as a percentage of the total losses28; In the second stage, the benchmarks are adjusted following assessment of the key countryspecific parameters (weather and climate conditions, structure of economy, NMHS status, and so on.

Finally, the estimates obtained for a country are used for calculating the marginal efficacy of the potential improvement of hydrometeorological services following the proposed modernization program.

4.3. RESULTS OF THH ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THH PROPOSED TURKMENHYDROMET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Using information from Turkmenhydromet, the study determined the key parameters required to calculate the marginal (least) economic effect of the hydrometeorological service provision with respect to the current status of the NMHS and after its proposed development and technical and technological modernization. The results of assessing such parameters are presented in Table 4.1.

The GDP share of the Turkmenistan sectors, which are exposed to substantial negative impact of hydrometeorological hazards, is 48%. This rates the weather-dependence of the national economy close to “relatively low” (see Section 1.3), due to the moderate agriculture’s input to national as compared to most of the countries that were reviewed in ECA region earlier (18.1% of GDP). The survey of experts from Turkmenhydromet showed that in Turkmenistan, like in many other transition countries, the NMHS suffered heavily from the chronic massive underfinancing, which has resulted in gradual ageing and degradation (technical and technological) of the physical infrastructure of the service. Thus, for the purpose of this study, the status of NMHS and hydrome-

26 The vulnerability of the territory to weather hazards was assessed as a function of the observed extreme and threshold values of major meteorological parameters, among which temperature (minimum and maximum), precipitation and wind, considered with characteristics of their statistical distributions.

27 The average annual values of losses from hydrometeorological hazards are assumed to be 0.45% of GDP. The range of annual losses is assumed to be from 0.1 to 1.0 % of GDP. There is no comprehensive data base on this important parameter, the estimates available in the literature vary from less than 0.1% to over 5% of GDP. 28 The level of average annual prevented losses – as a percentage of total losses – 40% (range – from 20 to 60 %).

Weather dependence of the economy means the aggregate share of the weather-dependent sectors in GDP, with the year average value of 50%.

Share of agriculture in GDP: the mean annual value – 15%; Weather vulnerability: the mean value is “average”.

The status of NMHS service delivery and hydrometeorological information provisions: the mean value “satisfactory”

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teorological service provision was rated as “poor”. The vulnerability of the country’s territory to weather hazards as whole was rated as “average”. The mean annual GDP for the period 2000-2006 was assessed at USD7,383 million. The amount of average annual NMHS’s financing is about USD1.7 million for the same period, or 0.023% of the GDP indicator (Table 4.1).

Table 4.1 Key Parameters for Benchmarking Assessment Indicators Weather dependency of the economy, % Share of agriculture in GDP, % Status of NMHS and hydrometeorological service provision Vulnerability to weather hazards Average annual GDP in 2000-2006 (USD million in the 2006 prices) Average annual financing of NMHS in 2004-2006 (USD million in the 2006 prices)***

Value 42.5% 18.1% 1* 3* 7 383 1.7

*rank from 1 to 5 (from “very poor” to “”excellent”) **range variable ranking from 1 to 5 (from “low” to “high”) ** the proceeds from all budget sources, including specialized hydrometeorological service provisions Source: Turkmenhydromet data and authors’ estimates

Table 4.2 presents the main results of assessing economic losses due to weather impacts and the marginal economic benefits from the use of the improved hydrometeorological information and services. It should be noted that presented results are indicative because basic macroeconomic parameters are not sufficiently reliable.

Table 4.2 Indicative Results of Benchmarking Assessment (in 2006 prices) Average annual losses incurred caused by weather hazards (USD million) Average annual losses incurred (% of GDP)

42.0 0.57

Average annual preventable losses (USD million)

23.0

Average annual incremental benefits due to improvement of hydrometeorological information and services (USD million) Investment effectiveness, % (across 7 years) Source: Authors’ estimates

17.7 413

Preliminary efficiency assessments of hydrometeorological services provided by the NMHS, as estimated by the benchmarking method, indicated that the Turkmenistan economy currently loses annually on average USD 42 million, or about TMM 432 billion (in the 2006 prices) due to weather-related damages. The absolute values of average annual preventable losses (over USD10 million) were obtained by assessing the prevented loss factor which, in the case of Turkmenistan, was 0.29, i.e. higher than in Tajikistan (0.19) and Kyrgyzstan (0.29), and close to the mean prevented loss factor for Kazakhstan (0.35) . For more details see Korshunov A.( 2008).

Annual incremental benefits for the national economy that would result from upgrading and developing the Turkmenhydromet amount to USD18 million, or over TMM 192 billion in 2006 prices (it was assumed for assessment purposes that the current conditions would improve by two grades: from “very poor” to “fairly good”). Thus, investment of USD 30 million, which is estimated as sufficient for upgrading NMHS conditions to “adequate”, may pay off in less than in three years following modernization, while the effectiveness of such investment over 7 years may even exceed 400%.

When analyzing results obtained, one should take into account that the method allow estimating only direct benefits largely expressed as reduced losses from hydrometeorological hazards (direct economic losses). These estimates do not take into account indirect losses and damages which become apparent after the hydrometeorological hazard occurred or due to combination of HHs and unfavorable weather conditions. Data on indirect losses resulting, for example, in agriculture from reduced yield, quality of products, and lost profits (which can be much higher than 50% in crop production) is completely absent.

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Turkmenistan could get an even higher actual economic benefit from implementing the Program as the above appraisal has not taken into account some other components of an economic effect from the Program implementation, such as improving the operation of households. Additionally, upgrading the system of forecasting and warning of any hazardous hydrometeorological events would contribute to improving the living standards of local residents, especially within the areas affected by floods and mudflows, to securing the transport safety, especially the safety of aircraft, off-shore hydrocarbons extraction, marine transport & pipeline transport, and to resolving any tasks in the area of environmental safety.

In the absence of reliable macroeconomic parameters and systematic registration of economic losses suffered by the Turkmenistan economy and population from the entire range of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena, it would be desirable: • To recalculate economic benefits once major macroeconomic parameters are vetted by international agencies; • To intensify efforts to develop and improve sector-specific methodologies for calculating economic benefits from (economic efficiency of) the use of hydrometeorological information and systematization of collected data on economic losses both from specific weather hazards across the national economy (‘natural’ integration of losses) and on a sector-specific basis (‘sectoral’ integration of losses through the summation of sector-specific losses caused by all types of HH); • To elaborate basic principles and mechanisms of interaction with entities in major weather-dependent sectors in order to develop and improve the range of standard and specialized hydrometeorological products and services promoting, and there after grounding on the estimates of weather hazards related damage (losses), potentially preventable due to the use of the improved hydrometeorological information in specific sectors; and • To conduct expert assessments of NMHS modernization efficacy for specific regions and the most significant weatherdependent sectors in the regions, taking into account the country’s diversity of regional climatic and economic conditions.

4.4. SUMMARY Assessment of the economic benefits from improved weather service delivery to Turkmenistan economy and population as a result of NMHS modernization is only indicative due to poor quality of main macroeconomic indicators.

In fact, the economic efficacy of investing in the Turkmenhydromet modernization was assessed on the basis of the benchmarking approach. Interaction with experts from weather-dependant sectors was undergone to collect information for sector-specific assessment via dissemination of questionnaire and face-to-face interview. None of experts was able to provide any quantitative information on his/her sector or even experts’ judgments on the increments of potential sectoral benefits in terms of modernization of NMHS and improvement of hydrometeorological services provisions. The cost/benefit analysis was also conducted by applying the data on average annual losses calculated through the benchmarking assessments.

Benchmarking assessments indicated that significant economic benefits in Turkmenistan can be realized from the use of improved hydrometeorological information and services. The investments in the NMHS modernization would yield significant benefits, with relatively high potential returns on investments.

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CHAPTER 5. HOW TO IMPROVE WEATHHR AND CLIMATE SERVICE DELIVERY IN TURKMENINSTAN 5.1. POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT (MODERNIZATION PROPOSAL) Modernization of Turkmenistan NHMS is primarily aimed at reducing the risks to human lives and economy as a result of weather and climate phenomena. Efforts to achieve the above objectives include modernization and technical upgrading of the NHMS, and implementation of activities to optimize the institutional structure, improve the scientific and methodological basis, provide professional upgrading of the staff, and establish quality control of hydrometeorological data.

As a result of project implementation the national and regional public authorities, sector ministries and population of Turkmenistan will receive better weather forecasts and climatic data, which will, in turn, facilitate economic growth and enable to safe human lives by taking the required preventive measures at the national and regional levels.

Performance indicators of the proposed project include at least 10-fold increase in the amount of meteorological data and products obtained from various sources, restored system of marine observations in the Caspian Sea coastal region and temperature-wind atmosphere sounding sites, improved measurement accuracy of major meteorological parameters, increased accuracy of weather forecasts (by 6-8% for daily forecasts and by 15% for 3-7 day ones), improved system of measurement data transition within Turkmenistan, saving of the national fund of hydrometeorological data, improved accuracy of stream flow measurements on the Amu Darya River and Kara Kum Canal, transfer to an improved model of Turkmenhydromet operations. The latter task requires institutional changes, improvements in the scientific and technical base of the NHMS and strengthening of technical capacity through implementing advances working methods, staff professional upgrading and strengthening of the financial status of Turkmenhydromet.

Investment options were selected on the basis of the following considerations. First, it is required to create conditions for Turkmenhydromet to perform major functions on hydrometeorological support of economic development. Second, Turkmenhydromet’ capacity to produce timely forecasts of unfavorable and hazardous weather events must be restored and improved. Third, it is required to strengthen the institutional and management structure, improve staff qualification and ensure financial and economic stability of Turkmenhydromet. Fourth, efforts should be made to ensure fulfillment by Turkmenistan of its international obligations under WMO membership, as well as other international agreements both in terms of the qualitative and quantitative components of produced observational data.

Financial sustainability of project outcomes will depend on the proper functioning and maintenance of Turkmenhydromet infrastructure – both the existing and newly established one. Above all, it should be emphasized that, despite the evident shortage of funds, the Service has managed to maintain its functioning during the recent years though it had to overcome considerable difficulties related to the lack of measuring instrumentation, expendables, spare parts and materials. As a result, a considerable part of equipment remained operative not only till the end of service life but much longer. However, one has to note that the NHMS had to reduce the program of observations and obviously the quality of observational data.

Reliable operation of equipment and systems will be ensured in case Turkmenhydromet is able to systematically follow the principles of service life management, including the replacement of equipment upon expiration of the designed service life.

When developing scenarios of reorganization and transfer to the improved performance model, it is recommended to consider the following changes aimed at improving management efficiency and quality of hydrometeorological services provided to public authorities and economic entities: • Reorganize the structure of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology in Ashgabat to separate administrative and operational functions in the central office, establish departments responsible for network management and scientific/methodological support, and a department performing organization of hydrometeorological services to users and management of the observational network in Akhal velayat (region); • Strengthen velayat (regional) HMC as major providers of services to regional users and individual economic entities, and centers of data collection from the observational network and dissemination (making available to users) of hydrometeorological information and products; • Divest aviation meteorological centers (AMCG) of the task to collect data from the observational network, removing them from the structure of velayat HMC and transferring under the management of the Aviation Meteorological Center in Ashgabat; • Consider project proposals to equip the Service with modern information technologies for the production and dissemination of information products.

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5.1.1. RECOMMENDATIONS ON STRENGTHHNING AND TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF TURKMENHYDROMET Two options for the modernization were considered. The first is the most comprehensive restoring and improving the observing network and providing new service capabilities. The second option is a lower cost version of Option 1 (Table 5.1).

Table 5.1 Modernization Options

Option 1. Comprehensive modernization of observing system and services 2. Low cost option providing similar, but limited improvement to the observing system and services

Cost (USD M) USD30 USD5.4

The details and costs of both options are listed in Annex 6. Option 1 is the preferred option (Table 5.2) and is discussed in more detail below.

Table 5.2 Basic Modernization Option

Main components A.

Technical design

Sub-components and activities Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system B1. Technical upgrading of the observational network

B.

Improve the system of hydrometeorological monitoring to provide timely warnings of extreme and hazardous weather events and to manage water resources

20,020,000 5,100,000

Upper air sounding systems and meteorological radars

9,590,000

Modernize the hydrological network

4,270,000

Creation of quality control system for data and hydromet products B2. Strengthen the IT base of Turkmenhydromet Refurbishment of data collection and telecommunication centers, introduction of new technologies Archive equipment

Institutional strengthening and capacity building

940,000

Surface Observing Network

C1. Strengthen the institutional, legal and regulatory framework and staff training Bring the scientific and methodological framework into compliance with WMO guidelines and recommendations Draft and enforce guidelines on how to conduct observations (including remote sensing), and how to process, store and submit information Prepare training, professional development and staff motivation program, launch its implementation including procurement of equipment for training center C2. Enhance Service Delivery C.

Estimated cost (USD)

Study user needs, evaluation of efficacy of hydromet service delivery, users training Develop technologies and the Procedures for disseminating urgent information on natural disasters, technologies to present weather forecasts on TV and development of NMHS Web site Improve National Climate Service C3. Improving the natural disaster and hazardous hydrometeorological event warning system Procure an autonomous emergency hydrometeorological support system and introduce meteorological drop kits Develop warning procedures, data bases and introduce detailed visualization equipment

860,000 5,150,000 2,250,000 2,900,000 1,480,000 300,000

580,000

600,000 1,230,000 550,000

380,000 300,000 1,180,000 790,000 390,000

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A large-scale technical and institution modernization of Turkmenhydromet is proposed to deliver more accurate and longer lead time forecasts and improved staff skills. Improved communication, data collection and presentation technologies will provide a better hydrometeorological service delivery system, will make it possible to: • Achieve the key objective of modernization, i.e. reduce the risk to life and damage to the economy caused by weather and climate-related events and disasters; • Fulfill regional and international obligations of Turkmenistan; • Fill the gap between increasing demands of the Government for hydrometeorological information and capabilities of Turkmenhydromet to deliver the required information and information products; • Achieve a “satisfactory” level of Turkmenhydromet in terms of technology (compared with the general technological level of NMHSs of WMO Member States).

LARGE SCALE PROGRAMS OF ACTIONS ON STRENGTHHNING AND TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF TURKMENHYDROMET (OPTION 1) There are three main activities or components in all modernization programs which include (i) Technical Design of the Modernized System; (ii) Improvement of the System of hydrometeorological Monitoring to Provide Timely Warnings of Extreme and Hazardous Weather Events and to Manage Water Resources and (iii) Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building of Turkmenhydromet.

COMPONENT A. TECHNICAL DESIGN OF THH HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL MONITORING AND TELE-COMMUNICATION SYSTEM The level of details provided in the modernization options proposed below is comparable with the level of pre-feasibility study.

More detailed work on the technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system is needed which ideally should be based on the overall concept of the Turkmenhydromet development. Technical solutions should be based on the comprehensive review of Turkmenhydromet and the existing international experience gained in establishing such systems, which are adapted to the particular circumstances and capabilities of each country in order to ensure a sustainable solution.

Technical specifications and main tender documents for procurement are expected to be developed under this component. It is important to ensure compatibility of all technical devises and system. This component includes: • Developing the concept of Turkmenhydromet development • Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system • Development of technical specifications and main tender documents COMPONENT B. IMPROVE THH SYSTEM OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL MONITORING TO PROVIDE TIMELY WARNINGS OF EXTREME DISASTERS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHHR EVENTS AND TO MANAGE WATER RESOURCES Improving the system of hydrometeorological monitoring will enable the NMHS to provide timely warnings to agencies responsible for reducing and preventing damage to the economy and population caused by natural weather events. Mitigation of their consequences and better emergency preparedness is an important component of the modernization program. Improvement of the hydrological observing and forecasting systems is also essential for efficient national water resources management and to fulfill Turkmenistan’s obligations under international agreements. Within this component the following is proposed: B1. TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF THH OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK The objective is to modernize the meteorological network and key sites of the hydrological monitoring network; restore marine observations in the Caspian Sea coastal area and temperature-wind sounding sites; establish the system of early storm warning based on modern Doppler marine radars (MR). The activities include the following: RESTORATION AND TECHNICAL UPGRADE OF THH METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK • Ensure that all operational stations of the ground-based meteorological observation network playing an important role in producing weather forecasts for the national territory and individual velayats, as well as airfields and internal airlines are equipped with automatic meteorological systems including measurement facilities for major meteorological parameters (atmospheric pressure, wind direction and velocity, air temperature and humidity, atmospheric precipitation and soil temperature), system controls, data collection and transmission units, and thunderstorm protection facilities. First of all, upgrad-

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ing should be provided at meteorological stations included in the WMO RAII Regional Basic Synoptic Network (16 stations). Meteorological stations in Repetek, Bekrev (Ashgabat), Esenguly, Akmolla and Turkmenabat should be additionally equipped with actinometric instruments.

• Provide inaccessible stations (IAS) with independent power supply sources (including renewable ones), modern warm backup communication systems (radio communication and personal (fixed) satellite communication), and antenna-feeder devices. Create sectional radio stations at each velayatе (HMC), and at meteorological station in Darvaz.

• Introduce up to 40 automatic meteorological stations (AMS) and rainfallmeasuring units at the ground-based meteorological observation network. AMS should be predominantly installed at meteorological, agrometeorological and hydrological monitoring sites where security of equipment could be provided.

• Establish a rotating pool (20% of meteorological and hydrological meters and controllers) and spare parts stock to ensure reliable continuous operation of the installed automatic systems for at least 5 years.

• Procure cross-country vehicles (at least 5) to ensure the functioning of observational network and, above all, IAS. RENEW TEMPERATURE-WIND SOUNDING OF THH ATMOSPHHRE OVER TURKMENISTAN Establish (restore) temperature-wind sounding sites near meteorological stations in Ashgabat, Turkmenbashi, Esenguly, Dashoguz and Tagtabazar, including the delivery and installation of aerological radars, profile measurement instruments and gas generators, as temperature-wind sounding data considerably affect the quality of weather forecasts and provide an essential element of global meteorological models. Emperaturewind sounding should be, first of all, renewed at stations in Ashgabat, Turkmenbashi, and Esenguly.

Location of equipment and creation of working conditions for the staff at Turkmenbashi, Esenguly, Dashoguz and Tagtabazar requires construction of appropriate buildings. Despite the relatively high cost of aerological radars, installation of such equipment will ensure low cost of one-time sounding. Installation of profile measurement instruments will enable to improve the quality of forecasting adverse weather conditions, and develop recommendations on how to reduce the level of pollution in large urban centers.

INSTALL DOPPLER RADARS Install Doppler meteorological radars in Ashgabat and Turkmenbashi (a separate building combined with AE) to improve early storm warning in essential economic areas and densely populated areas, as well as international airports. A separate building (combined with AE) is required near Turkmenbashi, inter alia, to provide space for HMC staff in Balkan velayat.

RENEW KEY OBSERVATION SITES OF THH HYDROLOGICAL NETWORK, AND EQUIP OPERATING POSTS WITH ADDITIONAL INSTRUMENTS AND DEVICES Modernize the system of hydrological observations in the Amu Darya, Murgab, Tenzhen and Etrek River basins including the installation of automatic hydrological measurement systems and introduction of mobile hydrological laboratories to ensure precise monitoring of stream flow in the Amu Darya River and Kara Kum Canal, and water level in the Murgab, Tenzhen and Etrek Rivers.

ESTABLISH MARINE OBSERVING NETWORK Equip marine hydrometeorological stations in Karabogaz, Duzlybogas, Guvlymayak, Turkmenbashi, Khazar and Ogryzha with instruments to measure oceanographic parameters; establish a new observation site at the Caspian Sea coast near Ekrem; introduce an oceanographic laboratory onboard a motor boat with seaworthiness up to 4 to perform surface water monitoring in the Caspian Sea, provide hydrometeorological support of marine operations, and design hydraulic engineering facilities.

B2. STRENGTHHN THH IT BASE OF TURKMENHYDROMET The objective is to provide modern software/hardware support of Turkmenhydromet HMCs to ensure efficient and timely collection (accumulation) of data from the observational network, receipt and processing of information products of the leading world meteorological centers, which, in turn, will enable to improve the quality and advance time of forecasts and thus improve meteorological services provided to the authorities and economy. In addition, it is planned to arrange for the storage of hard copy records under adequate temperature and humidity conditions, procure equipment for data scanning and recognition, servers with disk drives, virtual servers with tape carrier packaging, a tape driver and disk memory of the required capacity.

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TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA RECEIVING SYSTEMS • Modernize technologies for meteorological data and product receipt at the National HMC of Turkmenhydromet (Ashgabat) to increase the amount of information obtained via satellite communication links up to 0.5 GB per day; • Introduce modern technologies for data receipt, visualization and dissemination at velayat HMC; • Establish centers for data collection from observational networks at velayat HMC; • Equip Turkmenhydromet HMCs with computers and equipment for issuing information products in hard copies to provide hydrometeorological information services to users; • Install at the National HMC of Turkmenhydromet (Ashgabat) receivers of satellite data from orbital meteorological satellites NOAA (POES), METEOR, FY-1, FY-3, NPOESS with low spatial resolution (1-10 km), as well as data processing software.

MODERN COMPUTER TECHNOLOGIES FOR PROCESSING, FORECASTING AND PRESENTATION OF INFORMATION Modern computer technologies for data processing, forecasting and representation will enable to improve the quality of forecasts produces by the National HMC of Turkmenhydromet. The introduced technology should be based on buildingblock concept both in terms of the range of special-purpose AWS and the functional capacity of each AWS, and allow specialization of AWS in such areas as meteorology, land hydrology, marine hydrology and agricultural meteorology. It is proposed to procure for the National HMC of Turkmenhydromet a set of software products/licenses to establish 5 workplaces for specialists in agrometeorology, marine and hydrological forecasting providing for integration of forecasting technologies for Hydrologist’s AWS, Agrometeorologist’s AWS, Oceanologist’s AWS with that for Weather Forecaster’s AWS, as well as to adapt for Turkmenistan and introduce regional weather forecasting numerical models and numerical model for the Caspian Sea marine area.

DEVELOP A DATABASE ON IMPACTS OF EXTREME AND HAZARDOUS WEATHHR EVENTS This requires a continuous dialog and input from weather sensitive sectors and the public.

RESCUE THH NATIONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA FUND AND ESTABLISH AN AUTOMATED DATA ARCHIVE Saving the national fund of hydrometeorological data and establishing a modern computerized databank, above all, require establishment of a storage for paper records equipped with shelf stands, artificial lighting and adequate temperature/humidity conditions. It is also recommended to use the opportunity and request historical hydrometeorological records from the WMO World Data Center. A program should be developed to convert the data in digital format, including blueprinting and digitizing of paper records, and conversion of handwritten materials to electronic format. Digitalizing would require procurement of equipment for paper record archival: commercial OCR scanners, other special devices for work with hard copy documents. Data validation and archival equipment will enable to improve the efficiency of the system. In addition to paper record digitalizing and recognition, a technology for digital image storage should also be in place.

• Storage system: at least, a mediumlevel RAID, a storage server enabling to control the RAID, as well as load and select the required information; • Software for data management and indexing enabling to work with both digital images and data files in view of the receipt of operational and restricteduse information.

Security fetch protection should also be provided with no direct external access being allowed to exclude data loss.

ESTABLISH QUALITY CONTROL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA AND PRODUCTS Activities on establishing quality control of hydrometeorological data and products are aimed at improving the quality of data obtained from the observational network and kept in the databank, and information products provided to users, and include the following: • Introduce stationary automated verification facilities for meteorological and hydrological measurement instruments • Install and introduce stationary verification facilities for instruments to measure atmospheric pressure, air temperature, relative air humidity, air flow direction and speed, meteorological range of visibility and clod base height; • Install and introduce stationary verification facilities for hydrometric current meter calibration.

• Introduce mobile verification and repair laboratories for on-site measurement instrument calibration.

• Establish quality control system, inter alia, for output products and archive data from the national data bank.

• Introduce automated data quality control system; • Define financing arrangements and organizational procedures for using WMO Regional Centers to perform calibration of reference measurement instruments.

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COMPONENT C. INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHHNING AND CAPACITY BUILDING C1. STRENGTHHN THH INSTITUTIONAL, LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK AND STAFF TRAINING STRENGTHHN TURKMENHYDROMET REGULATIONS A lot needs to be done to bring the scientific and methodological base of the National Service in compliance with WMO Guidelines and Manuals, and, given the lack of national guidelines, focus on the development and implementation of national regulations regarding observations, data processing, storage and representation, as well as methodological guidelines on the operational practice in view of the upgrading of the observational network including the temperature-wind and remote sounding measurements.

This would help improve the management and planning efficiency, provide sound scientific and methodological support of NHMS functioning, and introduce procedures for product delivery, operation and maintenance of the system. Implementation of these activities would enable to define the appropriate arrangement of major system elements, e.g., monitoring system, new forecasting methods, modernized management system.

Bringing the scientific and methodological base of NHMS activities in compliance with WMO guidelines and recommendations using the experience of NHMS in CIS countries: • Receive and adapt the WMO and CIS NHMS regulations on observational practice, data processing, storage and representation; • According to the procedure established by national legislation and practice, adopt Turkmenhydromet regulations on observational practice, data processing, storage and representation; • Develop draft methodological guidelines on observational practice in view of the upgrading of observational networks, including the temperature-wind and remote sounding measurements.

IMPROVE STAFF TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADES A modern NMHS needs highly skilled employees, who refresh and upgrade their capabilities to meet the ever changing requirements of the service. External training programs for the staff should focus on as few training centers as possible so that the training is consistent and the skills readily shared across the organization.

While the basic meteorological and hydrological products will not change dramatically, new technical and service related expertise will be needed. This will require an overall upgrading of skills and responsibilities and a long term plan for staffing, which should be defined in the context of the technical refurbishment and service delivery strategy29. This should be reviewed in the context of other modernization efforts currently underway.

Areas requiring enhancement: • Project management • Technical skills to support observing networks • Enhanced skills in weather forecasting using numerical methods • Knowledge of social, environmental, and economic sectors sufficient to provide consulting services to their users • Enhanced skill in climate prediction using numerical methods • Greater computer literacy for all staff • Public education and outreach • IT management skills The current approach is, of necessity, piecemeal and results in varying capabilities depending on where the training was conducted making it difficult for two members of staff to apply the same methods to a common task.

Language is also an issue and wherever possible courses should be conducted in Russian. Senior scientific staff, likely to attend international working meetings of the WMO or other organizations, would benefit from English language courses since these meetings do not generally include interpretation. This would enable Turkmen staff to play a more active role in the international community and take advantage of the training capacity available in China and elsewhere.

Ongoing training is also a means of retaining junior staff longer and would compensate partially for relatively low pay grades.

A welldefined continuous training program would provide more career opportunities and encourage staff to remain longer in the service while they acquire these new skills.

As a first step, arrangements should be made for practical training of personnel at specialized hydrometeorological training institutions and NMHSs in foreign countries and CIS. The required activities include: • training courses for the observational staff of hydrometeorological stations and sites including the training of key staff at the WMO Regional Training Center in Kuchino, Moscow Region, Russia, • Arrange visits of Committee Chairperson to 2-3 NMHS with WMO assistance, 29

Various guidelines on service delivery issues are available from WMO Public Weather Services Programme in English only.

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• transfer of experience and participation of specialists in training sessions dedicated to the development and implementation of new forecasting techniques, • use of satellite information in weather forecasting and analysis, • utilization of hydrometeorological devices and facilities, • more efficient work with climatic data In view of expected significant changes in Turkmenhydromet associated with the introduction of modern technologies, and the need for professional upgrading of NMHS staff, this project component seems highly important for the achievement of project objectives, and provides for the implementation of the following activities: • Establish a center for professional upgrading and retraining of observational unit staff; to this end, provide the center with appropriate technical aids including equipment and training materials; • Improve the level of qualification and professional skills of the NMHS personnel to enable the staff to operate newly introduced measurement devices and information technologies • Provide training of managers and specialists in marketing of hydrometeorological services.

C2. ENHANCE SERVICE DELIVERY In the past few years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has highlighted the importance of service delivery and the need for NMHSs to be more customer or user focused to ensure that their products are used optimally for social and economic benefit.

Traditionally, NMHSs dealt with customers with a significant amount of training in meteorology, such as aviation or marine services. Today, however, more sectors of the economy are weather and climate sensitive resulting in a new client base demanding new products. However, since these users often have little knowledge and understanding of the specifics of weather, water and climate in their decisions, there is a need for a more collaborative approach to service delivery that involves both the provider and the user of the services. Unless this active engagement occurs, the users are often unable to utilize meteorological information effectively and though important, it is often discounted as factor in decision making.

Any technical refurbishment and enhancement of the Turkmen NMHS must be accompanied by investment in service delivery that meets the ever changing needs of society and the economy. Ultimately the value of the NMHS will be measured in terms of the behavior of users and the outcomes of their decisions. This means strengthening the capacity of the NMHS to deliver quantifiable social and economic benefits from their core activities.

Key elements include: • The capacity to understand and interact effectively with stakeholders using staff trained appropriately • Continuous engagement of stakeholders through frequent meetings and workshops to understand the changing needs of users and current performance of Turkmenhydromet • Establishing a customer advisory body, which includes representatives of all stakeholders • Easily accessible products through the web and other media • Well defined service agreements between the Turkmenhydromet and each customer • Special attention to key user groups MEDIA The media are an important sector through which a NMHS communicates its products and services to the public. Since the media are usually at the leading edge of public information services collaboration with this sector can be used to develop visualization tools and a platform for the public dissemination of forecasts.

In general the cost of this effort is borne by the media, which can recover the investment through their own revenue streams, either through government appropriation or advertising income.

The media is also the outlet for information about the NMHS and as such it is an important means of securing public visibility.

A proactive approach to the media is essential in order to produce a favorable view of a NMHS. A reactive approach usually means that the NMHS is defending itself against public criticism for a failed forecast, which is inevitable, without the benefit of a sympathetic public.

CREATE A NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE WITHIN THH NMHS A particularly important enhancement of the mission of any NMHS is the addition of a dedicated climate service, which should be viewed as an equal to the traditional weather forecasting and hydrological service missions. A National Climate Service (NCS) transforms the traditional climatological role of a NMHS, which focuses on the collection and mapping of meteorological data to a full user-oriented service, which can be provided as an integral part of the services delivered by the NMHS.

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Climate information is needed for planning and construction of buildings and facilities, and for the assessment of the impact of climate variations and change on the Turkmen economy and to provide a sound scientific basis for adaptation.

Climate change risk reduction is a priority for development and therefore particularly important in developing and transitional economies. This requires adequate monitoring and dissemination programs at the national level to assess risks, and the institutional capacity to develop the national capability to transform climate data, which will enable the government to include climate information in economic development programs.

In general, the NCS function of the NMHS should include key users, who have responsibility for the application of climate information within their specific sector. This will help to establish the appropriate roles and responsibilities of the NMHS versus other organizations that have responsibility for climate change policy, such as the State Agency on Environmental Protection and Forestry, which has responsibility for UN Framework Convention on Climate Change related activities. As in other countries, climate change policymakers should rely on the NMHS for the provision of climate data and information relevant to their decisions.

The NCS would have primary responsibility for services to climatesensitive sectors, although both weather and climate information are required by most. These sectors include development, finance, energy, water resource management, agriculture, urban planning and health, amongst others. Many of these sectors overlap and interact. For example, public health includes food security, access to clean water and sanitation – each dependent on the climate and weather extremes.

Managing the interactions between stakeholders is the responsibility of all of the relevant sectors. Various mechanisms exist to encourage inter sector cooperation across all of civil society, both public and private.

IMPROVE COMMERCIAL SERVICES In addition to their role as a public service provider, NMHSs are often encouraged to recover costs or provide a return on investment to their “owner”. While this is an attractive way to provide additional revenue for the NMHS, it needs to be managed carefully to ensure that the public mission is achieved as a public good and that the commercial services are offered competitively.

A number of different approaches to commercial services exist, including: • A Government-owned (Single shareholder) company that delivers contracted services to the government; • A Government meteorological service, which spinsoff and owns a separate entity to provide competitive commercial services. All profits from the commercial service can be reinvested in the commercial service or returned to the shareholder (the government). Separation of the commercial and government entity prevents crosssubsidies from the public sector to the commercial venture; • A Government meteorological service that provides a public service for some customers (with the costs borne by the service for data that are considered essential based on WMO resolution 40). Users may be required to pay for additional data.

This is the more common arrangement with no institutional distinction between the commercial and non-commercial activities; • A Government meteorological service that provides all of its data and information as a public service.

Whichever approach, if any, is chosen, it is important that the government adheres to the international policy (WMO Resolution 40) on the free and unrestricted international exchange of meteorological and related data and products, which are required to describe and forecast accurately weather and climate, and support WMO Programs.

The initial aim is to: • Develop an appropriate business model for the delivery of commercial weather, climate and hydrological services in Turkmenistan in response to the needs of the commercial sector and governmental contracting requirements.

C.3 IMPROVING THH NATURAL DISASTER AND HAZARDOUS hydrometeorological EVENT WARNING SYSTEM To reduce damage to agriculture, cattle-breeding, public utilities, motor, air and railway transport requires an Increasing the level of preparedness to emergency situations, improving procedures and emergency action plans seems highly relevant to the project. The following activities are proposes under this component: • Study international experience in establishing the system of warnings about extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events and reducing associated damage; • Perform zoning of the country’s territory in terms of EHH and HH probability; • Improve cooperation with national and regional authorities in providing warnings about extreme and hazardous weather events, including the development of coordination plans.

• Develop warning procedures at the national and regional levels: • Elaborate and put into effect Procedures for issuing and disseminating urgent information on the risk or occurrence of natural disasters, as well as collection and transmission of data on disaster consequences.

• Introduce an autonomous system of hydrometeorological support in case of emergency situations, and amphibious meteorological kits

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ASSESSMENT OF OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS When planning the introduction of new equipment, one should realize that operation and maintenance of instruments would require financial and technical support provided on a continuous basis throughout the life cycle of equipment. It is clear therefore that proposed modernization Turkmenhydromet will increase the operational costs for both options to ensure efficient operation of modernized observational networks and data collection and processing centers. Considerable increase is attached to the implementation of temperature-wind atmosphere sounding at the rehabilitated aerological stations in Ashgabat, Turkmenbashi, and Esenguly. Expenditures of once a day temperature-wind sounding, assuming the cost of the balloon equal to USD30 and that of radio sounder – USD70, make up USD38 thousand per year. The cost of radio sounder based on satellite navigation will be about USD200 which will increase annual expenditures to about 85 thousand. The cost of technical maintenance of the complex after the end of the warranty period can be in the range of USD15-25 thousand per year including spare parts. Operation and maintenance of two Doppler radars in Ashgabat and Turkmenbashi will require at least USD30 thousand per year.

The average cost of spare parts, maintenance and reliable operation of meteorological and hydrological systems, including those installed in remote, hard-to-access regions, hitech equipment and transport vehicles after the end of the warranty period is estimated at a level of 10% in the first five years of operation. Therefore to ensure reliable operation of the installed equipment USD190 thousand per year including the cost of recruited staff services. Operation of 7 complexes measuring oceanographic parameters will require some USD80 thousand a year including spare parts.

The cost of communication services – data transmission from 32 measuring stations and gauges and 40 automated meteorological stations and complexes (AMSs and AMCs) (lower level communication ) is estimated at USD18 thousand per year; the cost of satellite communication channels for Ashgabat and four veloyat HMC will be USD10 thousand per year. The costs of fuel for the vehicles to be supplied, electricity, SPL and calibration devices for hydrometric current meters depend on operating rules established for these instruments, and can amount to USD 15 thousand per year. Annual operating and maintenance costs to support oceanographic ship are estimated at USD15000.

When estimating operational costs it should also be taken into account that travel expenses related to implementation of routine and repair works and staff training is expected to increase at least two-fold as well as expenses related to expendables (item of expenditure “stationery and administrative expenses, equipment”.

5.2. ACTION PLAN AND NEXT STEPS. Financing of the Action Plan will likely be a combination of governmental funds, concessional financing from international financial institutions (IFIs), and international and bilateral donors’ support. The Action Plan will also be an integral part of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (CAREC DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters.

The CAC DRMI incorporates three focus areas: (i) coordination of disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) financing of disaster losses, reconstruction and recovery, and disaster risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. The initiative would be coordinated by World Bank, the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the CAREC umbrella. The Initiative will build on the existing cooperation that already exists in the region, and will complement and consolidate activities of the IFIs, the EU, the Council of Europe, the UN agencies, regional cooperation institutions, bilateral donors such as the Swiss Development Cooperation (SDC), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and others to promote more effective disaster mitigation, preparedness and response. It was agreed by donors and international organizations to convene in November 2009 a regional Central Asia Workshop aimed at improvement of hydrometeorological services and early warning systems. It is hoped that specific approaches towards funding commitments as well regional coordination and implementation modalities will be made during this workshop.

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SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION SOURCES Asian Development Bank (ADB). Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2008 www.adb.org/statistics CAWATER info http://www.cawaterinfo.net/bd/turkmenistan_e.htm http://www.adb.org/statistics Asian Disaster Preparedness Center http://www.adpc.net/ AQUASTAT Database http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data/query/results.htm CIA – The World Factbook – Turkmenistan https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworldfactbook/print/kg.html Emergency Events Data Base (EMDAT) http://www.emdat.be/ Eurasian.net http://www.eurasianet.org/resource/turkmenistan/index.shtml Information resource on donors activities in the Kyrgyz Republic http://www.donors.kg/en Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States http://www.cisstat.org/ Ministry of Energy and Industry of Tajikistan http://minenergo.gov.tm/ Ministry of Nature Protection of Turkmenistan http://www.natureprotection.gov.tm/projects_climat_ru.html State Bank of Foreign Economic Affaires of Turkmenistan http://www.tfeb.gov.tm/ Oil & Gas Complex of Turkmenistan http://www.oilgas.gov.tm/ ReliefWeb

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IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

http://www.reliefweb.int/ The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System http://www.gdacs.org/ UNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific http://www.unescap.org/icstd/SPACE/documents/DISASTER/Study_Report/AnnexI.asp UNEP Regional Resource Centre for Asia and the Pacific (RRC.AP) http://www.rrcap.unep.org/ UNEP/GRID – Arendal. Central & Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia http://enrin.grida.no/ United Nations Development Programme. Europe and CIS. http://europeandcis.undp.org/ United Nations Development Programme in Turkmenistan http://www.undptkm.org/ United Nations World Food Programme http://www.wfp.org/ WMO Public Weather Services Programme http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/publicationsguidelines_en.htm World Meteorological Organization (WMO) http://www.wmo.int/ Portal of Knowledge for Water and Environmental Issues in Central Asia http://www.cawaterinfo.net/index_e.htm United Nations in Turkmenistan http://www.untuk.org/ UNDAF. 2004. United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2005-2009 TURKMENISTAN. United Nations Country Team. February 2004 Electronic newspaper “Turkmenistan: the golden age”, under an informational support of Neutral Turkmenistan and State News Agency of Turkmenistan (TDH) http://www.turkmenistan.gov.tm/_en/?idr=2&id=090525a Turkmenistan government information portal http://www.turkmenistan.gov.tm/_en/ PreventionWeb http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=178 Caspian Environmental Programme http://www.caspianenvironment.org/newsite/CaspianCountries.htm#TR UNDP Human Development Reports. msn Encarta http://encarta.msn.com/ WikipediA The free encyclopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkmenistan

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IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

World Bank. 2003. Bucknall, Julia, Irina Klytchnikova, Julian Lampietti, Mark Lundell, Monica Scatasta, and Mike Thurman.

Irrigation in Central Asia Social, Economic and Environmental Considerations. The World Bank, February 2003. www.worldbank. org/eca/environment GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY (GEF). 1998. Aral Sea Basin Program (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) Water and Environmental Management Project. Project Document May 1998. Report No.17587-UZ http://www.cawaterinfo.net/library/eng/reports/ Eurasian Development Bank. 2009. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO WATER RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA. (Consolidated Report). Almaty, 2009

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IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

ANNEXES Annex I. List, criteria and description of impacts of main hydrometeorological hazards in Turkmenistan hydrometeorological hazards and their criteria 1

2 3 4

5

6 7 8

9 10 11

12 13 14 15

Objects affected by hazardous events

Strong wind (15 m/s and greater)

Facilities, residential houses, power lines, communication lines, railway, air and motor transport, roads, oil and gas pipelines, construction projects, trees, billboards Heavy rain Crop areas, residential houses and buildings, cellars, (20 mm and more within 12 h) railway and motor roads, hydraulic works Strong heat (40оС and higher during 5 days and longer) People, crop areas (especially cotton plants), railway and motor roads People, fruit trees, animals, heat pipelines, motor Severe frost (-15оС and lower during 5 days and longer) roads, oil and gas pipelines, water lines, communal infrastructure facilities Floods and mudflows (storm rainfalls with intensity of 20 Flooding of cities, populated localities, agricultural lands, mm and more in mountain river basins) railway and motor roads, destruction of hydraulic works, bridges, communication lines, power lines, death of humans and animals Heavy hail Hail damage, agricultural crops, gardens, house roofs, (20 mm in diameter and larger) cars Glazed frost Motor transport, pedestrians, air transport, (diameter of ice deposit 20 mm and more) communication and power lines Dust storms (winds peed 15 m/s and greater, visibility 50 m Air transport, local population, railway and motor and less) transport, power lines, communication lines, buildings, residential houses, trees, billboards, communal infrastructure Heavy fog Air and motor transport (visibility 100 m and less) Dry hot winds (wind, high air temperature, moisture deficit Rural residents, agricultural crops, pastures, animals (in 60-80 mb) some cases may lead to cotton yield losses up to 40%) Drought (combination of high temperatures, precipitation Dry land farming, pastures, animals (leads to degradation deficit and low stored soil moisture (hydrothermal index = of desert pastures) 0.4-0.6) Frosts, spring and autumn (air or soil temperature -1оС and Young agricultural crops, fruit trees, autumn output yield lower) Thunderstorms (any) Air transport, people, metal structures, power lines Flooding of cities, populated localities, crop areas, Ice jam on rivers (at air temperature -15оС and lower during 5 days and longer) destruction of hydraulic works, bridges Storm surge Marine transport, fisheries, coastal infrastructure (wave height 1.5 m and higher)

Source: Turkmenhydromet

77

34

31

40

26

25

23

16

40

40

31

34

30

36

45

31

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

26

23

1985

1986

45

4-6

Year

1984

Strong

1983

2

1

2

2

1

4

2

1

1

2

2

4

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Below -10oC

9

1

3

2

14

2

4

3

4

8

5

6

1

1

2

34

1

1

1

1

2

2

1

Above 40oC

Below -20oC

Severe

33

29

32

39

37

41

35

14

24

15

26

33

41

25

34

25

23

50

38

1

2

1

2

5

8

2

1

4

2

1

5

1

2

2

3

8

Rain 10 mm and more 7

3

7

6

8

5

3

6

4

6

5

4

3

7

4

7

2

8

4

Precipitation

2

2

2

5

5

4

1

4

2

3

3

1

2

3

3

5

2

1

Rain 30 mm and more

Air temperature

2

1

1

2

1

1

3

1

1

1

Snow20 mm and more

Dry winds

3

4

1

6

5

2

1

3

4

4

4

1

2

Flood and mudflow

Above 45oC

Droughts

38

19

26

17

14

26

13

19

24

22

16

10

18

26

29

38

32

35

4-6

81

77

72

58

63

61

73

72

83

107

117

116

119

112

106

118

102

91

84

>15

6

6

18

5

9

15

16

14

21

30

36

26

42

54

40

24

23

39

30

>20

Wind, m/s

Extreme hydrometeorological hazards and hydrometeorological hazards in 1983-2005 in Turkmenistan and hazardous events

Dust storms

78 1

2

1

1

2

2

4

6

8

6

7

8

3

6

5

5 10

6

13

3

2

10

5

5

7

1

Spring 3

2

1

2

2

1

2

1

6

1

2

5

2

5

8

8

2

9

3

7

5

4

6

9

7

3

3

Ground frosts

Autumn

Annex 2. Extreme hydrometeorological hazards and hydrometeorological hazards in 1983-2007 in Turkmenistan

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

Strong hail

17

2007

1

2

2

1

1

1

Below -10oC

5

4

1

10

2 5

Above 40oC

Below -20oC

Severe

36

50

36

21

19

29

4

8

6

1

2

4

Rain 10 mm and more 4

4

3

6

12

9

3

2

2

5

4

6

5

3

1

Flood and mudflow 1

3

1

4

4

35

26

21

23

22

23

116

110

120

111

78

80

>15

52

68

33

18

24

11

>20

Wind, m/s

2

1

1

2

Spring

Strong hail

Above 45oC

Droughts

7

3

6

2

4

7

2

1

2

1

8

1

Ground frosts

Source: Turkmenhydromet

Note: The official criterion (“Instructions to hydrometeorological Stations concerning the Data on Hazardous hydrometeorological Weather Events”. M. Gidrometeoizdat, 1972) defining a hazardous event as the one lasting for at least ten days with temperature above 45о С, is unjustified since such conditions rarely occur even in Central Asian countries.

According to modern standards, given that increased air humidity arises the heat load on a human organism, air temperature above 40о С should be considered as hazardous event regardless of the duration period.

25

37

2005

35

2004

2006

29

2003

Year

39

Strong

2002

Rain 30 mm and more

Precipitation Snow20 mm and more

Air temperature Dust storms

Extreme hydrometeorological hazards and hydrometeorological hazards in 1983-2005 in Turkmenistan and hazardous events

Autumn

Dry winds

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

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IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

Annex 3. Description of selected significant events of main types of hydrometeorological hazards in Turkmenistanin in 1953-2007 and preliminary estimates of related economic losses 3.1. Floods and Mudflows NN

Date

Event

Region

1

June 14, 1986

Mudflow

Serdar (Kyzyl Arvat)

2

August 06, 1986

3

August 05, 1987

4 5 6

April 09, 1991 April 10, 1991 April 15, 1991

7

April 15, 1991

8

May 15, 1992

Rain flood.

Stream flow 1450 m3/s Mudflow Stream flow 97 m3/s Rain flood.

Rain flood Snow and rain flood. Stream flow 925 m3/s Rain flood.

Stream flow 585 m3/s Rain flood.

Losses, TMM million Highway and railway eroded. 950 1190 heads of small cattle killed

Atrek River

Dam came to emergency condition

Sekizyap River

Buildings and roads eroded

Murgab River Tedzhen River Murgab River

Tedzhen River

Atrek River Kyzyl Atrek

Water reached the floodplain Water reached the floodplain 287 residential buildings, motor road and railway, irrigation facilities, 3955 ha of agricultural lands submerged Water reached the floodplain

May 02, 1992

Snow and rain flood

Murgab and Tedzhen Rivers

10

May 15, 1992

Snow and rain flood

Amu Darya River, Water reached the floodplain Turkmenabat (Chardzhou)

11

June 25, 1992

High water.

Amu Darya River, Ferry-boat passage destroyed, Turkmenabat dams damaged. 7852 ha of agricultural crops flooded and washed away Murgab River Dams eroded. Military airfield, 188 ha of agricultural lands flooded

March 24, 1993

13

April 15, 1993

14

August 08, 1993

15

August 16, 1993

Snow and rain flood. Water level 3 times above the norm Snow and rain flood. Stream flow 578 m3/s Mudflow

180

7 hours

321589

48 hours

Dams and residential houses destroyed. Large mudrock flows occurred in Kopet Dag piedmonts. Human casualties, cattle losses, flooded agricultural lands Agricultural lands, Tagtabazar railway station flooded, dams damaged

9

12

Timeliness of warning 3 hours

Geokdepe

Water level above the norm by 787 cm

Water level 30% above the norm

80

Impact

Tedzhen River

Kopet Dag piedmonts, Iskander railway station Mudflow Stream Kaakhka, along the Loinsu river flow 510 m3/s bed

Water reached the floodplain.

Dam eroded

48 hours

48 hours

638581.8

48 hours

16486

36 hours

36 hours

Railway bed eroded

Railway traďŹ&#x192;c terminated, pipeline destroyed, agricultural lands flooded

4 hours

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

NN

Date

Event

Region

16

June 15, 1994

Snow floods

17

July 16, 1994

Snow floods, water level 25% above the norm

18

December 05, 1994

Rain flood.

Amu Darya River, Water reached the floodplain Lebap velayat Amu Darya River, Dams burst, 700 ha of Lebap velayat agricultural lands flooded.

Collectors, pumping station, hydraulic structures destroyed Murgab River.

Dams eroded, 56 ha of winter Tagtabazar crops flooded.

19

February 10, 1995 Rain flood.

20

January 16, 1996

21

July 26, 1996

22 23

March 28, 1997 April 21, 1997

24

June 02, 1997

25

June 04, 1997

26

July 31, 1997

27

April 07, 1998

28

April 08, 1998

29

July-August 1998

30

July 25, 1998

31

August 14, 1998

32

September 06, 1998

Stream flow 720 m3/s Air temperature -20芯小, ice jams and links

Murgab River

Impact

Losses, TMM million

Timeliness of warning 96 hours

57058,4

48 hours

67,2

Bridges damaged, agricultural lands flooded, motor roads eroded

Amu Darya River, Water overflowed the banks and flooded vast area. Areas under Birata crops and pastures, motor road (Darganata) and pumping station flooded Mudflow Stream Kaakhka, along 100 residential houses damaged, 26970 flow 725 m3/s the Loinsu river 58 of them completely destroyed, bed 5 bridges, 5 power transformers, 7 wells, 3.5 km of irrigation network damaged, agricultural lands flooded Rain flood Murgab River Agricultural lands flooded Rain flood Murgab River.

75 residential houses damaged, 19835 Tagtabazar agricultural lands and Tagtabazar railway station flooded Firyuzinka River Archabil (Firyuza) settlement Rain floods. flooded Stream flow 136 m3/s Mudflow.

Ashgabat Mudflow from Kopet Dag slopes.

Streets and basements flooded (32 mm/day) Mudflow Gyaurs and Area along the railway at Kaakhka AnnauGyaurs section flooded Murgab River Bridges, motor roads damaged.

263529 Rain flood.

Serkhetabat Vast areas of agricultural lands (54 mm/day) (Kushka) flooded.

Stream flow 758 m3/s Tedzhen River.

Agricultural lands, motor roads Rain flood. (45 Ata aul flooded mm/day)

Stream flow 705 m3/s Snow flood

Amu Darya River Dams burst. Agricultural lands, Turkmenabat, motor roads flooded, pontoon Stream flow Atamurat (Kerki) bridges destroyed in Atamural 3 6250 m /s. 145% and Turkmenabat above the norm Rain flood Atrek River. Kyzyl Residential houses flooded over Atrek large area Rain flood Sumbar River.

Residential houses flooded over Magtymguly large area (Kara Kala) Mudrock flow Dzhebel, along the Oglanly river Dzhebel airport flooded bed

96 hours

3 hours

36 hours

36 hours

96 hours

36 hours 36 hours

36 hours

81

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

NN

Date

Event

Region

33

July 22, 1999

Rain flood (96 mm/day)

Sumbar River.

Magtymguly

34

August 08, 2000

35

September 11, 2000

36

September 11, 2000

37

September 11, 2000

38

August 11, 2001

39

August 12, 2001

40

August 25, 2001

Mudflow

Arvaz, Ipaikala Rivers

41

April 23, 2002

Rain flood

Murgab River.

Stream flow 736 m3/s

Tagtabazar

May 04, 2002

Mudflow. Stream Firyuzinka River flow 119 m3/s

43

May 05, 2002

Mudflow flood.

Stream flow 304 m3/s

44

June – July 2002

Snow flood.

Stream flow 4500 m3/s

45

March 28, 2003

Rain flood

47

82

Magtymguly flooded with mudflows. Telephone communication cut off Mudflow Arvaz, Ipaikala Seedlings flooded over large area Rivers in forest management unit, ageold trees uprooted, cattle loss reported Rain flood Sumbar River.

Motor road, power line bridges Magtymguly destroyed, agricultural lands and (41 mm/day) orchards flooded Rain flood Atrek River. Kyzyl Antiflood dam burst, 37 Atrek residential houses flooded. 189 people evacuated in safe area Sekizyap River Water overflowed the banks, 100 Rain flood m of motor road eroded, railway Stream flow 98 Geokdepe bed damaged, railway traffic m3/s terminated Rain flood (59 Sumbar River Water overflowed the banks, 150 mm/day) residential houses destroyed Rain flood. Water Atrek River. Kyzyl Dam burst and water overflowing level 13.5 m Atrek the bed near Atrek. Vast area above the critical flooded. Multiple destructions in mark flooded area

42

4-6

April 26, 2003

June 02, 2003

Impact

Stream flow 560 m3/s Snow and rain flood.

Stream flow 4-670 m3/s Rain flood

Archynyansu River,

Amu Darya River, Water reached the floodplain, rice and cotton fields flooded Atamurat

Telephone communication and power supply cut off, agricultural lands and populated areas in the Sumbar River valley flooded

Timeliness of warning

24 hours

9756

210

39450 18200

Motor road destroyed, agricultural lands flooded, seedlings damaged in forest management unit Water overflowed the banks, 255880 protective dams burst, agricultural lands and residential houses in Tagtabazar flooded Mudflow flooded vast area at Archabil, meteorological site silted for 70 cm 35 m of railway bed eroded, vast territory and motor road flooded

Kaakhka Amu Darya River, Protective dams burst, agricultural lands flooded, Atamurat pontoon bridge across the Amu Darya River destroyed Murgab River.

Water reached the floodplain, vast areas of agricultural lands Tagtabazar flooded

Sumbar River

Losses, TMM million

194-691

24 hours

9 hours

48 hours

48 hours

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

NN

Date

Event

Region

48

June 13, 2003

Rain flood

Amu Darya River, Water reached the floodplain, melon, rice and cotton Atamurat plantations flooded

Stream flow 5400 m3/s Mudflow. Stream Small Balkhan flow 132 m3/s slope near the Arkach railway station Flooding. Water Amu Darya River, level 67 cm Atamurat, above the critical Turkmenabat, mark Birata Amu Darya River, Snow flood.

Stream flow Atamurat 7000 m3/s Rain flood Sumbar River, Magtymguly (48 mm/day)

49

July 22, 2004

50

June 10, 2004

51

July 02, 2005

52

August 09, 2005

53

August 10, 2005

Rain flood

54

May 15, 2007

Rain flood

55

May 20, 2007

Stream flow 42 m3s Snow flood.

Water level 286 cm. Stream flow 4080 m3/s

Impact

Losses, TMM million

Timeliness of warning 48 hours

Railway bed eroded, motor road damaged. Railway traďŹ&#x192;c terminated for 5 hours

485

Water reached the floodplain, areas under crops, melon, rice and cotton plantations flooded

210000

48 hours

1 class dam burst, floodplains, rice and cotton plantations flooded, deigish event noted Floodplain flooded, Chat hydrological observation site destroyed Atrek River. Kyzyl Floodplain flooded, Atrek Atrek hydrological observation site destroyed Sekizyap River Seedlings flooded over 0.4 ha in forest management unit of Geokdepe Geokdepe etrap

185000

96 hours

45

12 hours

68

36 hours

75

12 hours

176000

24 hours

Amu Darya River, Water reached the floodplain, areas under crops, melon, rice Atamurat, and cotton plantations flooded Turkmenabat

3.2. Strong Wind NN

Date

1

August 03, 2003

Event

Hurricane wind, 30 m/s

Region

Impact

Geokdepe region,

1250 m of 110 kW power line destroyed, 4 reinforced concrete supports with wires and 12 wooden poles thrown down, roofs torn away from 38 houses 3 power line poles, lighting masts thrown down, roofs of 32 residential houses destroyed, roofs torn away from central marketplace, textile plant, transport enterprise, food association. Advertising panels and lighting masts torn away in the central park Power line destroyed, 30 poles thrown down. Telephone communication terminated, 50 wooden poles fell down.

Roofs torn sway from 2 hospital buildings, main building façade damaged, numerous trees uprooted.

Kopet Dag settlement 2

3

February 24,`2004

Squall wind, 2630 m/s

February 24, 2004 Hurricane wind, 28-32 m/s

Geokdepe settlement

Archman health resort

Losses

Period of advance warning

83

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

NN

4

5

Date

Event

Region

Impact

Losses

Period of advance warning

Losses

Period of advance warning

February 09, 2006 Hurricane wind, 29-33 m/s

April 04, 2006

Geokdepe region 20 km of power line destroyed.

31 reinforced concrete supports VL-220 kW LKW-1 thrown down.

Roofs torn away from 28 houses.

Squall wind, 24Akbugdai region 360 m of power line destroyed.

29 m/s, rainstorm (Gyaurs), Yashlyk 2 reinforced concrete supports settlement VL-220 kW LKW-1 thrown down.

Roofs torn away from 24 houses.

3.3. Dust Cyclone NN

Date

Event

Region

1

March 13, 1953

2

January 16, 1968 Dust storm, wind speed 30-35 m/s

Dust storm, wind speed 30 m/s

Kopet Dag, Hurricane tore away house Ashgabat, Central roofs, fell down hundreds trees, Kara Kum Desert telephone and power line poles.

Thickness of deposited dust over 6 mm Kopet Dag, Hurricane tore away hundreds house roofs, fell down Ashgabat, thousands trees, telephone and neighborhood power line poles. Thickness of deposited dust over 10 mm, which made up 15-30 tons per hectare Kopet Dag, In Ashgabatะต and neighborhood Ashgabat, 300 km power and communication line zone poles and masts thrown down.

Thickness of deposited dust 35 mm, 4-6 tons per hectare Kopet Dag, In the city and neighborhood Ashgabat, hundreds trees uprooted, power line supports and tree neighborhood, central areas in trunks broken, electricity cables Mary and Lebap torn, hundreds house roofs velayats destroyed, several industrial buildings and engineering facilities damaged. Thickness of deposited dust 6-8 mm, 12-15 tons per hectare Kopet Dag, In the city and neighborhood Ashgabat, hundreds trees uprooted, neighborhood power line supports and tree trunks broken, electricity cables torn, hundreds house roofs destroyed, several industrial buildings and engineering facilities damaged. Thickness of deposited dust 4-6 mm, 5-8 tons per hectare

3

December 23, 1975

Dust storm, wind speed 35-40 m/s

4

December 19, 1985

Dust storm, wind speed 30-35 m/s

5

September 20, 1995

Dust storm, wind speed 30-32 m/s

Source: Turkmenhydromet records and estimates

84

Impact

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

Annex 4. Selected Extreme hydrometeorological Hazards: 19762005 1976 April 22, 1976: Rainstorm occurred in Ashgabat, daily precipitation amount making up 80 mm. The rainstorms caused powerful mudflow floods passing through Ashgabat. Railway and motor road flooded along the Geokdepe-Dushak section. Diking dams of the Kara Kum Channel eroded, agricultural lands flooded. Damage made up Rb 14 million. Advance warning period 44 hours. April 23, 1976: Powerful flood at the Atrek River, water stream made up 1400 m3/s, water level in Chat increased to 927 cm. The flood was caused by heavy rainfall occurred in Iran and Turkmenistan. Serious damage caused.

April 24-25, 1976: High rainfall flood occurred at the Tedzhen River, stream flow making up 1320 m3/s. This is the historical maximum for the whole period of observations. Damage caused. Water reached the floodplain and started bypassing the Tedzhen water reservoir creating a threat to the Kara Kum Channel. Motor road TedzhenSerakhs was eroded. Advance warning period 12 hours.

1977 Low water level in the Murgab River. Stream flow during the intensive water use period made up 40% of the norm. Damage caused to agriculture.

In 1977, mudflow occurred at the Chaacha River in Kaakha district, stream flow made up 1340 m3/s, railway eroded, fields and warehouses flooded. Advance warning period 30 hours.

1981 July 19-20, 1981: Heavy rainfall in Turkmenistan. On July 19, 1981, in Nebit Dag 53.5 mm within 12 hours. Major part of the city submerged, damage made up Rb 807,000. In Kazakdzhik – 42 mm within 12 hours; on July 20, 1981 – 13 mm, 58 mm within two days. In Kara Kal on July 19, 1981 – 75.5 mm within 12 hours, 92.5 mm during the day; on July 20, 1981 – 30 mm within 12 hours, 134.5 mm within two days. Damage: 200 houses flooded, 3 bridges destroyed, agricultural lands flooded. Advance warning period – none. Damage made up Rb 5 million.

July 20, 1981: Stream flow in the Sumbar River 1000 m3/s; in the Atrek River stream flow 1530 m3/s. Advance warning period 72 hours.

Serious damage caused.

On March 28-29 and in April 1981: Heavy rainfall in Turkmenistan, especially in Tashauz region.

May 13-14, 1981: 3550 mm hail in Khaus-Khan. Damage caused to agriculture.

1982 1982: Low water level in the Amu Darya River, 50% of the norm during the flood peak period.

May 07, 1982: Mudflows in small rivers of Kopet Dag – Big Karanki, Ashgabadka, Baba-Zo. Total stream flow 118 m3/s, streets flooded in Ashgabat, damage made up Rb 1 million. Advance warning period 6 hours.

1986 June 14, 1986: In Kyzyl Arvat, precipitation amount made up 4-6 mm within 4 hours. Serious damage caused, motor road and railway eroded. 950 heads of small cattle killed. Advance warning period 3 hours.

August 06, 1986: Rain flood in the Atrek River. Stream flow 1450 m3/s. Flood resulted in emergency condition of dams in Kyzyl Atrek.

1987 August 04-05, 1987: Mudlow in the Sekiz Yab River. Stream flow 97 m3/s, advance warning period 7 hours. Damage equaled about Rbls 1 million.

March 17, 1987: Tornado in Deinau district (Chardzhou region), wind speed 23 m/s, thunderstorm with rainfall and hail, hailstone diameter 3050 mm. Damage: houses damaged, crops flooded.

1991 April 08-09 and 14-15, 1991: Powerful snow and rain floods in the Murgab River, stream flow on April 15, 1991 made up 925 m3/s (maximum for the whole period of pbservations). 287 residential houses, motor road and railway, irrigation channels, 3955 ha of agrocultural lands flooded. Advance warning period 48 hours. Damage equaled Rb 20 million.

April 09-10 and 14-15, 1991: Snow and rain flood in the Tedzhen River. Maximum stream flow 585 m3/s.

1992 May 15, 1992: High rainfall flood in the Atrek River. Water level in Kyzyl Atrek increased by 787 cm. Dams and residential houses destroyed.

May 1015: heavy rainstorms in Kopet Dag piedmonts caused powerful mudrock floods. Damage: human casualties, cattle loss, agricultural land flooding. No warning was provided.

April 30 – May 02, 1992: Rain and snow floods in Murgab and Tedzhen Rivers. Agricultural lands, railway station Takhtabazar flooded, dams damaged. Advance warning period 48 hours.

May 15-22, 1992: Rain and snow floods in the Amu Darya River. High water occurring once in 20 years was observed from June 25 till July 31.07 with water level exceeding the norm by 30%. Damage: ferryboat passage across the Amu Darya destroyed, dams damaged, 7852 ha under agricultural crops in the floodplain flooded and washed away.

1993 March 24 and April 15, 1993: Rain and snow floods in the Murgab River. Water level during floods was 2.53.5 times above the norm.

Damage: dams eroded, military airfield and 88 ha of agricultural lands flooded. Advance warning period 36 hours. Rain and snow floods in the Tedzhen River. Stream flow 578 m3/s. Damage caused. Advance warning period 36 hours.

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August 08 and 16, 1993: Mudflows in Kopet Dag piedmonts. Damage: railway bed eroded at the Iskander railway station. On August 16, 1993 in Kaakhka district along the Loinsu river bed stream flow equaled 510 m3/s, as result railway traffic was terminated, pipeline damaged, and agricultural lands flooded. Advance warning period 4 hours.

1994 June 12-15 and July 01-16, 1994: High snow floods in the Amu Darya River, water level exceeding the norm by 25%. Damage: protective dams burst, 700 ha of agricultural lands flooded, collectors and pumping station destroyed. Advance warning period 48-96 hours December 05, 1994: Daily rainfall in Takhtabazar equaled 62 mm causing high rain flood in the Murgab River. Damage: dams eroded, winter crops flooded. No warning was provided.

1995 February 10, 1995: Heavy rainfall during February 06-10 caused high rain floods in the Murgab River and tributaries. Damage: bridges destroyed, agricultural lands flooded, motor roads eroded. No warning was provided.

1996 January 15-16, 1996: Severe colds (air temperature -15–20° C) caused ice phenomena such as ice jams and links on the Amu Darya River (Darganata settlement). Water overflowed the banks and flooded vast area. Damage: areas under crops, motor road and pumping station flooded. Advance warning period 96 hours.

May 25-26, 1996: Rainfalls along the Loinsu river bed caused powerful mudflow flooding. Water stream passed through Kaakhka. Damage: 100 residential houses damaged, 58 houses completely destroyed, 5 bridges, 5 power transformers, 7 wells, 3.5 km of irrigation networks damaged, agricultural lands flooded. No warning was provided.

1997 March 27-28 and April 20-21, 1997: High rain floods in the Murgab River and tributaries. Damage: 75 residential houses damaged, agricultural lands and railway station in Takhtabazar flooded. Advance warning period 3 hours.

June 02 and 04, 1997: Powerful mudflows and rain floods in the Firyuzinka River. Stream flow made up 136 and 83.2 m3/s, respectively.

Damage caused to Firyiza settlement.

June 04, 1997: Heavy rainstorm (32 mm) in Ashgabat caused mudflows from Kopet Dag Ridge slopes. Water reached the city, streets and basements were flooded.

July 31, 1997: Mudflows in Gyaurs and Kaakhka districts. Areas along the railway at the AnnauGyaurs section flooded. No warning was provided.

1998 April 06-07, 1998: Heavy rainfalls in Turkmenistan, in Kushka 107 mm within two days, in Takhtabazar 89 mm. High rain floods in the Murgab River, on April 07 stream flow made up 758 m3/s. In the Tedzhen River (Ata aul) on April 08 estimated stream flow made up 700 m3/s. Damage: bridges and roads damaged, agricultural lands flooded. Advance warning period 36 hours.

High snow flooding in the Amu Darya River during June-August 1998. Maximum stream flow at Kerki observation site equaled 6250 m3/s, making up 145% of the norm. recurrence – once in 23 years. Damage: agricultural lands flooded, dams burst, pontoon bridges destroyed in Kerki and Chardzhou. Warnings were provided.

July 2425, August 05-09 and 14, 1998: Rain floods in Sumbar and Atrek Rivers. Significant damage caused: on August 14 in Kara Kal residential houses flooded over vast territory.

August 05-06, 1998: Mudrock flow passed along the Oglandy mudflow bed. Dzhebel airport was flooded. Advance warning period 36 hours.

1999 June 22, 1999: At the Kara Kal meteorological station precipitation amount made up 96.4 mm within 3 hours 30 min. Powerful rain flood occurred in the Sumbar River and along the Bagandar dry bed. Mudflows and slope flows flooded streets in Kara Kal, telephone communication was terminated. No warning was provided.

2000 August 08, 2000: Rainfall in Kara Dag piedmonts caused powerful slope flow at Ipaikala settlement on the right bank of the Arvaz River.

Significant damage caused to the forest management unit: seedlings flooded over vast area, ageold trees uprooted, cattle loss occurred. Advance warning period 24 hours.

September 11, 2000: Large precipitation amount in Kara Kal (41 mm). As a result, powerful mudflows in Sumbar and Atrek Rivers. Motor road power line destroyed in Kara Kal, agricultural lands flooded. In Atrek settlement, antiflood dam destroyed, 37 houses flooded, 189 people evacuated in the safe zone. Powerful rain flood along the Sekiz Yab River bed with stream flow making up 98 m3/s. In Geokdepe water overflowed the banks, motor road eroded, 100 km of railway bed damaged, railway traffic terminated. No warning was provided.

2001 Extremely low water level in the Murgab River and tributaries. Mean annual stream flow made up 25% of the norm (the lowest flow for the whole period of observations).

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August 11, 2001: Heavy rainstorms in the south-eastern part of Turkmenistan. Precipitation amount in Atrek equaled 59 mm within a day, in Kyzyl Arvat – 25 mm. This caused high rain floods. Powerful flood occurred in the Chandyr River (Sumbar River tributary), water overflowed the banks, 150 residential houses were destroyed. On August 12, 2001, powerful rain flood occurred in the Atrek River. Water level reached 13.5 m. Damage: dam burst, water overflows near Atrek settlement.

August 25, 2001: Heavy rainfall in Kopet Dag pidmonts caused powerful rain flood in the Arvaz River. Damage: motor road destroyed, agricultural lands flooded, seedlings in the forest management unit damaged.

2002 April 23, 2002: High rain floods in the Murgab River and tributaries. Stream flow in Takhtabazar equaled 736 m3/s. Such stream flow is observed once in 15 years. Damage: water overflowed the banks, protective dams burst, agricultural lands and residential houses in Takhtabazar flooded. Advance warning period 24 hours.

May 04-05, 2002: Rainstorms in Kopet Dag piedmonts caused powerful mudflow in the Firyuzinka River. Stream flow made up 119 m3/s.

Recurrence of stream flow – once in 20 years. Significant damage caused to Archanil (Firyuza) settlement: mudflow flooded vast area, meteorological site silted for 70 cm (the site was completely rebuilt). Advance warning period 9 hours.

May 05, 2002: Powerful mudflows in Kaka etrap. Stream flow in the Archilyansu River made up 304 m3/s. Damage: railway bed eroded, vast territory and motor road flooded.

June 19 – July 12, 2002: High flooding of the Amu Darya River. Stream flow at Atamurat equaled 4500 m3/s, which is 40% above the norm.

Damage: protective dams burst, agricultural lands flooded, pontoon bridge thrown away in Atamurat, passage across the Amu Darya River closed 2003 March 28, 2003: Rainfalls in the Murgab River basin and tributaries caused high rain floods, stream flow in Takhtabazar making up 560 m3/s (recurrence once in 10 years). Damage: water reached the floodplain, agricultural lands flooded. Advance warning period 48 hours.

April 26, 2003: High rain and snow flood in the Amu Darya River. Stream flow in Atamurat made up 4-670 m3/s, by several times exceeding the monthly norm for this season.

June 09-13, 2003: Stream flow in Atamurat equaled 5400 m3/s making up 168% of the norm. Water reached the floodplain, areas under rice and cotton were flooded. Advance warning period 48 hours.

June 02, 2003: High rain flood in the Sumbar River. Damage: telephone communication terminated, power supply cut off, agricultural lands and populated areas in the Sumbar River valley flooded. No warning was provided.

2004 July 22, 2004: Local rainstorms (Bereket meteorological station – 24 mm within 1 hour 40 minutes) caused mudflows from the slopes of Small Balkhan near Arkach railway station with stream flow 132 m3/s. Damage: railway bed eroded, motor road damaged.

Railway traffic terminated for 5 hours. No warning was provided.

2005 June 20 – July 11, 2005: Summer high water in the Amu Darya River. On July 02, 2005, stream flow in Atamurat equaled 7000 m3/s, which is 217% of the norm. Damage caused along the whole river bed: 1 class dams busrts, floodplain and areas under rice and cotton flooded, deigish phenomenon. Advance warning period 96 hours.

August 09-10, 2005: Heavy rainstorms in Kopet Dag (48 mm a day in Kara Kal) resulting in high rain flood in Sumbar and Atrek Rivers.

Floodplain completely flooded, hydrological gauges destroyed at Chat and Atrek. Advance warning periods 12 hours in Chat, 36 hours in Atrek.

Source: Turkmenhydromet records and estimates

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Annex 5. Agenda and Participants of Consultation Workshop “IMPROVEMENT OF EFFICIENCY OF WEATHHR AND CLIMATE SERVICE DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN” (September 30, 2008, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan) organized by the World Bank in collaboration with National Hydrometeorology Committee at the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan (Turkmenhydromet) AGENDA

12:45-13:00 13:00-13:30

Registration of participants Welcome remarks.

Serdar Jepbarov (World Bank), Kakamurad Yaziyev (Turkmenhydromet) Workshop objectives and agenda.

Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank)

13:30 -13:50

Introduction of participants hydrometeorological Hazards and their Impacts to Economy of Turkmenistan: Overview, Vulnerability Assessment

13:50-14:00 14:00-14:20

Speaker: Dovran Boltaev (Turkmenhydromet) Q&A Current Status of Turkmenhydromet system

14:20-14:30 14:30-15:00

Speaker: Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank) Q&A Needs Assessment of Weather Dependent Sectors: Peculiarities and Similarities of Issues and Priorities

15:00-15:30 15:30-16:10

Facilitated by Marina Smetanina, followed by discussion of national sectoral experts Q&A, Coffeebreak Hydromet Services Modernization Issues: -

What Can be Done to Improve Turkmenhydromet Service Delivery

-

Potential Expected Benefits of Hydromet Modernization Options for Major Economic Sectors and Society

-

Role of National Hydromet Service in View of Climate Change Projections/Adaptation Needs and Disaster Risk Mitigation

16:10-16:20 16:20-16:35

Speaker(s): Anna Wielogorska, Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank) Q&A Quantifying Economic Benefits of Hydromet Modernization in Turkmenistan.

16:35-16:40 16:40-17:10

Speaker: Marina Smetanina (World Bank) Q&A Bank Experience in Hydromet Modernizations in Turkey, Poland, Russia.

How the Bank May Help in Implementing Turkmenhydromet Modernization options.

17:10-17:50

Speaker(s): Vladimir Tsirkunov, Anna Wielogorska (World Bank) Final Discussion: Workshop Recommendations and Resolution

17:50-18:00

Chaired by: Kakamurad Yaziyev (Tukmenhydromet), Serdar Jepbarov (World Bank) Closing Remarks Speaker(s): Kakamurad Yaziyev , Vladimir Tsirkunov, Serdar Jepbarov

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№

Name

Organization

Position

YAZIYEV, Kakamurat BOLTAEV, Dovran

Turkmenhydromet Turkmenhydromet

MAMMETKURBANOV, Kakabay AGALHANOVA, Marina SPIVAK, Larisa BOGIMOVA, Maria NURYEVA, Aknabat OVESBERDYEVA, Gozel ESENOVA, Bibi

Turkmenhydromet

Chairperson of the Committee Director of Scientific&Technical Center “Climate” Head of contracting department

TAGANOV, Dzhuma AGANIYAZOV, Rozmurat

Turkmenhydromet Turkmenhydromet Turkmenhydromet Turkmenhydromet Turkmenhydromet Ministry of Finance of Turkmenistan

Ministry of Economi and development of Turkmenistan Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan

HANMEDOV, Guvanch Ovezovich NUBERDYEV, Toili Kiyasovich ATAEV, Bayram EEBERDYEV, Begench

Ministry of Water industry of Turkmenistan Ministry of Railway transport of Turkmenistan Ministry of Agriculture of Turkmenistan Ministry of Nature protection of Turkmenistan

ALLABERDYEV, Kurban

Ministry of Nature protection of Turkmenistan

AIMAMMEDOV, Rustem Nurmuhammedovich MUHAMMETNAZAROV, Seyitnazar Muhammetnazarovich

Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan

KURBANOVA, Fliura Annaevna KULIEVA, Aijeren

State Insurance Organization of Turkmenistan Institute for Strategic planning and economic development of Turkmenistan Institute of desert flora and fauna under the Ministry of Environmental protection of Turkmenistan Institute of desert flora and fauna under the Ministry of Nature Protection of Turkmenistan Scientific and design Institute “Trkmensuvylymtaslama” Scientific and reseach Institue of crop planting of Agricultural University name after S.A. Niyazov Research Institute of Seismology of the Ministry of Construction of Turkmenistan

KARYEVA, Sona Muradovna MAMMEDOV, Batyr

GELDYBAEV, Sahetmurat Bagtybaevich Г GOSHAEV, Geldy

ATAEV, Alexander Kurbanovich

Supreme Council on Science and technology under the President development of Turkmenistan

Lead Engineer-hydrologist Lead engineer-meteorologist Lead engineer-forecaster Engineer-Hydrologist of 1st category Engineer Main specialist, Department of financial management for industry, transport and communications Head, Department of Transport and Communications Colonel, Head, Department of Civil defense and salvage operations Head, Department of water use Specialist of 1st category, Department of safety transit by rail freightage Head, Operational Department Head, Department for management of coordination of ecological National specialist of the Project Framework convention on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change Major, Head of Ashgabat city branch of civil defense and salvage operations Chief specialist, Department for forecasting of scientific directions and international relations

Head, Department of Insurance and international relations Main specialist Deputy Director

Lead researcher, Laboratory for forests and pasture lands Engineer Director

Head, Laboratory for geophysical monitoring

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№

Name

Organization

Position

YAZIYEV, Kakamurat BOLTAEV, Dovran

Turkmenhydromet Turkmenhydromet

MAMMETKURBANOV, Kakabay AGALHANOVA, Marina SPIVAK, Larisa BOGIMOVA, Maria NURYEVA, Aknabat OVESBERDYEVA, Gozel ESENOVA, Bibi

Turkmenhydromet

Chairperson of the Committee Director of Scientific&Technical Center “Climate” Head of contracting department

TAGANOV, Dzhuma AGANIYAZOV, Rozmurat

Ministry of Economi and development of Turkmenistan Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan

HANMEDOV, Guvanch Ovezovich NUBERDYEV, Toili Kiyasovich ATAEV, Bayram EEBERDYEV, Begench

Ministry of Water industry of Turkmenistan Ministry of Railway transport of Turkmenistan Ministry of Agriculture of Turkmenistan Ministry of Nature protection of Turkmenistan

ALLABERDYEV, Kurban

Ministry of Nature protection of Turkmenistan

AIMAMMEDOV, Rustem Nurmuhammedovich MUHAMMETNAZAROV, Seyitnazar Muhammetnazarovich

Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan

KURBANOVA, Fliura Annaevna KULIEVA, Aijeren KARYEVA, Sona Muradovna MAMMEDOV, Batyr

GELDYBAEV, Sahetmurat Bagtybaevich Г GOSHAEV, Geldy

ATAEV, Alexander Kurbanovich

90

Turkmenhydromet Turkmenhydromet Turkmenhydromet Turkmenhydromet Turkmenhydromet Ministry of Finance of Turkmenistan

Supreme Council on Science and technology under the President development of Turkmenistan State Insurance Organization of Turkmenistan Institute for Strategic planning and economic development of Turkmenistan Institute of desert flora and fauna under the Ministry of Environmental protection of Turkmenistan Institute of desert flora and fauna under the Ministry of Nature Protection of Turkmenistan Scientific and design Institute “Trkmensuvylymtaslama” Scientific and reseach Institue of crop planting of Agricultural University name after S.A. Niyazov Research Institute of Seismology of the Ministry of Construction of Turkmenistan

Lead Engineer hydrologist Lead engineermeteorologist Lead engineerforecaster EngineerHydrologist of 1st category Engineer Main specialist, Department of financial management for industry, transport and communications Head, Department of Transport and Communications Colonel, Head, Department of Civil defense and salvage operations Head, Department of water use Specialist of 1st category, Department of safety transit by rail freightage Head, Operational Department Head, Department for management of coordination of ecological National specialist of the Project Framework convention on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change Major, Head of Ashgabat city branch of civil defense and salvage operations Chief specialist, Department for forecasting of scientific directions and international relations

Head, Department of Insurance and international relations Main specialist Deputy Director

Lead researcher, Laboratory for forests and pasture lands Engineer Director

Head, Laboratory for geophysical monitoring

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

EFENDIEV, Mikhail Iskenderovich

Research Institute of Seismology of the Lead researcher, Laboratory for geophysical Ministry of Construction of Turkmenistan monitoring

ISMAILOV, A.E.

Association “Turkmengazakdyrysh”

Head, Department of measuring devices and automatic control

DURDYMURADOV, A.

Association “Turkmengazakdyrysh”

Lead engineer

GURBANSAHHDOV, Rovshan Allagulyevich

Trust “Ahgabatteplo”

Chief engineer on heating mains maintenance

YULDASHHVA, Saida Razumovna

State National Service “Turkmenhovayollary”

Lead engineer, Meteorological service department

KURBBANURDYEVA, Enesoltan ALLAYAROV, D.

Turkmen State University named after Magtymuly State electric power corporation “Turkmenenergo” State electric power corporation “Turkmenenergo” State Statistical Committee of Turkmenistan

Member of environmental science faculty

Hudaberdyev, B.S. BUROVA, Valentina

Head, Central dispatcher control department Head, Main Inspection of reliability and technical safety Main Specialist, Department of Social Statistics

ATAEV, Bayram

State Fishery Committee of Turkmenistan Head of Operational Service

BERDYMURADOV, Hakmurat

Department “Turkmendenizderyellarry” Inspector of seaport service

SAPAROV, Merdan

Association “Tyrkmenmallary”

Chief specialist, Operational Department for animal husbandry and implementation of scientific research achievements

TSIRKUNOV, Vladimir

World Bank

Task Team Leader, ECSSD

SMETANINA, Marina

World Bank

Consultant/Program Coordinator

WIELOGORSKA, Anna JEPBAROV, Serdar

World Bank World Bank

Lead Procurement Specialist Sr. Operations Officer

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Annex 6. Recommendations of Consultation Workshop “IMPROVEMENT OF EFFICIENCY OF WEATHHR AND CLIMATE SERVICE DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN” (September 30, 2008, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan) organized by the World Bank in collaboration with National Hydrometeorology Committee at the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan (Turkmenhydromet)

September 30, 2008

City of Ashkhabad (Turkmenistan) RECOMMENDATIONS

Following a request from the Government of Turkmenistan, the World Bank has launched a review of prospects of development of the National hydrometeorological Service of Turkmenistan. The above work has been carried out in cooperation with the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan (hereinafter the Turkmenhydromet).

Objective of the Workshop Discussion of preliminary outcomes and development of the recommendations and an action plan to improve the capacity of the Turkmenhydromet in regard to providing any synoptical and hydrological services and information as well as warning the Government of Turkmenistan, the economic sectors & local residents of any hazardous weather events and natural hazards.

The workshop was preceded by a series of activities carried out by the World Bank experts, specialists of the Turkmenhydromet, and employees of the concerned ministries and agencies.

The workshop was attended by: the World Bank staff; managers and specialists of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan (Turkmenhydromet); experts from the concerned scientific & research establishments; representatives of the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan; representatives and specialists of the sectoral ministries and agencies; and representatives of the other concerned organizations.

Following the discussion of the reports and speeches made by the workshop attendants, the workshop has drawn the conclusions as follows: A review of the prospects of development of the National hydrometeorological Service of Turkmenistan has been made for the first time and shall have an integrated nature including reviewing the following: (1) impacts of any hazardous hydrometeorological events on the national economy and local residents, (2) users’ demand for any prognostic products produced by the Turkmenhydromet, (3) current technical conditions of the Turkmenhydromet and any options for its technical and process retrofitting and upgrading, (4) economic damage from any natural hazards & hazardous meteorological events and economic benefits from upgrading the Turkmenhydromet to reduce the damage levels, and (5) any toppriority measures for promoting the system of providing the economic sector and population of Turkmenistan with reliable hydrometeorological information and services including warning of any natural hazards and hazardous hydrometeorological events and any aspects related to the mitigation of risks and adaptation to the climate change; Upgrading the hydrometeorological Service shall take into account the importance of any information on the current and predicted hydrometeorological conditions in terms of securing the stable Socio-economic development and national safety; Practically every branch of economy has been directly or indirectly impacted by the hazardous hydrometeorological events and adverse weather conditions. According to some preliminary estimates, the average annual damage from flood and mu flows would be USD 23 million (or above 250 billion manat) in 2006 prices, or 0.22% of the national GDP. The economic losses from impact of high wind on the economic sector and population with no hydrometeorological services provided would make not less than USD 4 million (or 4-6 billion manat), or 0.04% of the national GDP per annum; Reliable operation of the State system of hydrometeorological observations and forecasting including the provision of reliable & timely information and forecasts to the users shall require providing the hydrometeorological Service with modern metering equipment, using the advanced technologies, and promoting the scientific framework for making observations and forecasts; The hydrometeorological Service has faced a system-wide problem related to the non-satisfactory technical and process resource provision due to the budget underfunding. Poor budget funding of the hydrometeorological Service including primarily the lack of capital investment into the procurement of metering equipment has resulted in that over 90% of the major metering equipment have been out of date. Also, the hydrometeorological Service has suffered from the shortage of automated technical units, advanced remote technologies, and data-processing devices; All the above has preconditioned the hydrometeorological Service of Turkmenistan falling well behind the hydrometeorological services of industrialized countries, which has had an adverse impact on the quality of observations and forecasts, primarily those related to any adverse hydrometeorological events, and on the level of meteorological provision for the aircraft; The hydrometeorological Service shall require an urgent technical & process upgrading, with the growing requirements from specific branches of economy to the level of hydrometeorological provision taken into account; The economic effect from improving the hydrometeorological provision to the economic sector and population of Turkmenistan

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as a result of the above upgrading of the hydrometeorological Service has been assessed using the following methods: (1) meteorological risk assessment method, (2) sectoral assessment method, (3) analogue method, & (4) benefit/cost review. An economic appraisal using the above range of methods would be a problem due to the nonavailability of systematic records of any physical & cost losses/damages met by the national economy and population due to the whole range of hazardous hydrometeorological events and adverse weather conditions; and According to a rough estimate of economic efficiency from implementing the proposed Turkmenhydromet Modernization Program (with a preliminary estimated value of USD 30 million) using the benchmarking method and the benefit/cost review, an improvement in hydrometeorological provision due to the Program implementation would provide the national economy with a potential additional average annual economic effect in the amount of about USD 18 million in 2006 prices. Supposing that the above average annual economic effect would be gained within 7 years of commissioning and operation of the relevant equipment, the total benefits would exceed USD 120 million. Correspondingly, an economic efficiency from investing into the Program implementation would be over 400%, or, in other words, every US dollar used for upgrading the Turkmenhydromet would secure a 4-dollar benefit to the economy due to the damage prevention. The outcomes of reviewing the relevant benefits & costs have also proved a high economic advisability of implementing the above Program. A benefit/cost ratio of 2.7 has been obtained, and a discounted investment return period would be 4 to 5 years.

Turkmenistan could get an even higher actual economic benefit from implementing the Program as the above appraisal has not taken into account some other components of an economic effect from the Program implementation, such as improving the operation of households. Additionally, upgrading the system of forecasting and warning of any hazardous hydrometeorological events would contribute to improving the living standards of local residents, especially within the areas affected by floods and mudflows, to securing the transport safety, especially the safety of aircraft, off-shore hydrocarbons extraction, marine transport & pipeline transport, and to resolving any tasks in the area of environmental safety.

The workshop has put a special emphasis of the following: 1. The importance of mobilizing the experts from specific ministries and agencies to identify the users’ demand for hydrometeorological information and services, which would be valuable both for the Turkmenhydromet itself and for the above agencies. The above work shall include identifying an optimum level of State funding to minimize any economic losses and to identify the most efficient investment categories.

2. The workshop attendants have pointed at the current poor technical capacity of the Turkmenhydromet, which has had an adverse impact on the quality of hydrometeorological services and resulted in high economic losses. Also, the workshop attendants have stressed that the above economic losses have been partly due to an insufficient interaction between the Turkmenhydromet and the principal recipients of hydrometeorological information. In view of the above, upgrading the Turkmenhydromet should be a necessary and timely task.

3. The advisability of reviewing the World Bank’s experience in implementing any integrated projects in the area of hydrometeorology. As agreed upon with the Government of Turkmenistan, attraction of the financial aid from the World Bank to develop and implement the Turkmenhydromet Modernization Program shall be considered.

The workshop has recommended the Turkmenhydromet to: • Strengthen the mechanisms for interacting with the users including the development of a feedback system (probably using any new devices and equipment); • Attract the experts from any weather-dependant sectors to contribute to a more detailed review of the major categories of modernization and technical support to the Turkmenhydromet and its branches; • Intensify the cooperation with key branches of economy and housing & communal sector in calculating any economic benefits (including any losses prevented) from using any hydrometeorological information; • Develop the baseline principles and mechanisms for interacting with various user categories in terms of providing any data and products for a value received; • Intensify the attraction of the most weather-dependant branches of economy (fuel & power complex, housing & communal complex etc.) for co-funding of any programs for targeted collection and provision of hydrometeorological information; • Promote the cooperation with specific branches of economy in developing any sectoral methods for calculating an economic effect (economic efficiency) from using any hydrometeorological information & forecasts, and in systematizing the collection of data on economic damages due to specific hydrometeorological events for the national economy in general and for each sector of economy by summarizing any losses from all the hazardous hydrometeorological events and adverse weather conditions; and • Promote the aspects of efficient use of hydrometeorological information in order to secure any supplementary economic benefits for the national economy in general and for specific economic sectors and population of Turkmenistan on the basis of: - implementing any targeted consulting events involving the representatives of specific users, and - developing the Turkmenhydromet web site to feature any hydrometeorological information including that related to the impact of any adverse weather conditions on various branches of economy and population (guidelines, recommendations, and international experience).

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Annex 7. List of Activities and Budget for Modernization Options

NN A

A.1 A.2

B

B.1.

B.1.1 B.1.1.1 B.1.1.2 B.1.1.3 B.1.2 B1.2.1 B1.2.2 B1.2.3 B1.2.4 B.1.2.5 B.1.3 B.1.3.1 B.1.3.2 B.1.3.3 B.1.3.4 B.1.4 B.2 B.2.1 B.2.2 B.2.3 B.2.4 B.2.5 B.2.6 B.2.7 B.2.8 C. C.1.

C.1.1.

C.1.2

94

Activities Development of Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system Developing the concept of Turkmenhydromet development Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system and system integration including development of tender documents, performance indicators Improve the system of hydrometeorological monitoring to provide timely warnings of extreme and hazardous weather events and to manage water resources Technical upgrading of the observational network Surface Observational Network Procure and install equipment for the ground-based meteorological network Upgrading of data collection and communication station Procure vehicles for remote stations Upper air sounding systems and meteorological radars Procure and install upper air sounding computer systems Procure and install electrolyzers Procure profile recorders Procure and install Doppler meteorological radars Construct buildings for upper air sounding stations Modernization of Hydrological Network Modernization of the hydrological observation system Procure and install mobile hydrological laboratories Procure and install equipment to measure oceanographic parameters Procure a ship-borne oceanographic laboratory Creation of quality control system for data and hydromet products Strengthen the IT base of Turkmenhydromet Refurbishment of data collection and telecommunication centers Introduction of modern technologies of data processing and information products Equipment for numerical regional models and data preparation Procure and install satellite communication stations Archive equipment Refurbishment of archive facility Adjust the regional numerical weather forecast model for Turkmenistan Adjust the numerical model of the Caspian Sea marine zone Institutional strengthening and capacity building Strengthen the institutional, legal and regulatory framework and staff training Bring the scientific and methodological framework into compliance with WMO guidelines and recommendations Draft and enforce guidelines on how to conduct observations, and how to process, store and submit information

Option 1 Number Cost 940 000

Option 2 Number Cost 220 000

70 000 870 000

20 000 200 000

25 170 000

4 728 000

20 020 000 5 100 000 3 900 000

3 928 000 1 900 000 1 900 000

49

5 5 5 5 2

16 2

350 000 850 000 9,590,000 1,300,000 500,000 940,000 4,650,z000 2,200,000 4,270,000 1,100,000 500,000

948,000 520,000 200,000 188,000

6 1

720,000 470,000 250,000

1,700,000 970,000 860 000

360,000

5,150,000 330,000 250,000

800,000 260,000 220,000

350,000 120,000 2,900,000 500,000 300,000 400,000 3,890,000 1 480,000 300,000 400,000

120,000 200,000

340 000 200 000

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

C.1.3 C.1.4 C.1.5 C.1.6 C.1.7 C.2 C.2.1 C.2.2

C.2.3

C.2.4 C.2.5 C.2.6 C.2.7 C.3 C.3.1

C.3.2 C.3.3 C.3.4 C.3.5

Draft methodological recommendations on how to conduct observations, including temperature-wind sounding and remote sensing of the atmosphere, with due regard for observational network refurbishment Prepare a long-term training/professional development/ retraining and staff motivation program Procure equipment for the retraining/professional development center for observational unit staff Develop training aids to study specifications and operation of modern technical facilities Training (onsite training, study tours) and logistical support Enhance service delivery Design and develop a technology to present weather forecast on TV Development and regular support of Turkmenhydromet Web site Develop technologies and the Procedures for issuing and disseminating urgent information on the risk or occurrence of natural disasters, and for collecting and transmitting data on disasters Implement training activities (seminars, round tables, etc.) for major users of sector-specific information (national and regional public authorities, line ministries, fuel and energy sector, HCS, etc.), including those devoted to the value hydrometeorological information and peculiarities of its interpretation Study of user need demands on the national, regional and sectoral levels Evaluation of economic efficacy of Hydromet service delivery for various sectors Improve National Climate Service Improving the natural disaster and hazardous hydrometeorological event warning system Develop warning procedures at the national and regional levels Develop and enforce the Procedures for issuing and disseminating urgent information on the risk or occurrence of natural disasters, and for collecting and transmitting data on disaster consequences Procure a detailed visualization equipment set for the NMHS hydrometeorological Center Procure an autonomous emergency hydrometeorological support system and introduce meteorological drop kits Development of data base on negative and hazardous hydrometeorological events Total

180,000 100 000 250,000 50,000 200,000 1 230,000

200 000 200 000 50 000

50,000 80,000

250,000 50,000

200,000 200,000 150,000 300 000 1 180 000 10,000

100 000 40 000 10 000 30 000

30,000 300,000 790 000 50,000 30 000 000

5 388 000

95