World Environment Magazine, Issue 4

SPECIAL GLOBAL WARMING

WORLD ENVIRONMENT

MAGAZINE

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WORLD ENVIRONMENT MAGAZINE

ECO-MASTERPLANNING FOR GREEN CITIES

SPECIAL

GLOBAL WARMING ACT AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE BIANCA JAGGER:

A Copernican Revolution No 04 / November 2009

CLIMATE CHANGE:

Affecting our Daily Lives THE OBAMA PLAN FOR CLEAN ENERGY:

A Great Opportunity for Europe

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WORLD ENVIRONMENT

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November, 2009

Consuming the Earth

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lobal warming is a reality not a theory. The average air temperature of planet Earth has risen by approximately 0.76 degrees Celsius over the past century, provoking temperature changes, alteration in rainfall patterns and an increased frequency in storms around the World. Global warming is destroying ecosystems, and, according to a 2005 report from the World Health, climate related deaths will double in 25 years because of more frequent heat waves, droughts, and floods.

It is of scientific evidence that human activities, such as burning fossil fuels and cutting down trees, are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and other heat trapping green house gases into the atmosphere.

We have been consuming the earth with irreversible consequences and so far, very little has been done to stop this process.

It has become desperately urgent for our world leaders, who will be meeting in Copenhagen in December at the United Nation’s Climate Change Conference, to find a solution to Global Warming.

It has become desperately urgent for us citizens from all over the world to start acting now.

In this special issue on Global Warming, World Environment Magazine does not only present an analysis of the problem, but it also offers simple and easy tools that will allow each one of us to be part of the solution.

To conclude; let us remember that we do not need to stop consuming but we need to consume differently, and, above all, let us not forget what Sri Sathya Sai Baba once said:

“When individuals change, Society will change. And when society changes the whole world will change. The welfare of the individual is bound up with the welfare of the society as a whole�.

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Number 04 | November 2009

CHAIRMAN Andrea Tucci a.tucci@worldenvironment.tv

Global Warming >5

SPECIAL Global Warming 5>56

EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Cathy Chami Tyan c.tyan@worldenvironment.tv EDITORIAL PROJECT COORDINATOR Marc Wiliam Lowe m.lowe@worldenvironment.tv CONTRIBUTORS Samir Anwar Al-Gamal, Renato Burri, Corrado Clini, Stephan Faris, Bianca Jagger, Fulya Ilbey, Alya Kebiri, John Keyrouz, Christopher Knight, Steffen Lehmann, Frederico Niglia, Gabriella Porilli, Mai Samaha, Elsa J. Sattout, Cathy Chami Tyan CONCEPT & DESIGN

Sustainable Development >58

WORLD Editorial:

Water >66

>1

Consuming the Earth

>58

The Sustainable Jordan Declaration

>61

Eco-Masterplanning for Green Cities

>66

Management of Groundwater Quality

>78

New Dimensions in Studying Transboundary

Sustainable Development:

Water:

Energy >88

Aquifers in Africa

PHOTOGRAPHY Hamed Behishiti, Jeremy Stafford Deitsch, John Keyrouz, Steffen Lemann, Simon Rogerson, Cathy Chami Tyan, Wurtz-Artescienza.

Energy: >88

Waste Management >93 Waste Management:

SALES AND ADVERTISEMENTS adv@worldenvironment.tv PRINTING RAIDY | www.raidy.com COPYRIGHT The articles become part of the magazine’s archive`. Further publishings on other issues must be authorized by the editor following the author’s consent.

On the Sunny Side of the Street

>93

Problem or Opportunity?

>96

Sharks: Interview with Sonja Fordham

Biodiversity:

Biodiversity >96

>102 Investing in Human Capacities Eco Tourism: >110 The Lebanon Mountain Trail >114 Egypt: Ecotourism in Sinai

Eco-Tourism >110 Ecoliving:

ISSN 1737 - 92 - 29

>117 The WE Quiz

REGISTERED UNDER INNORPI, Tunis, Tunisia ET080360 March 26, 2008

>118 The Story of Island Hospice Zimbabwe >125 The WE Book Review

Eco-Living >117

>128 Environmental Agenda

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WORLD ENVIRONMENT

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By Bianca JAGGER

A COPERNICAN REVOLUTION BIANCA JAGGER’S KEYNOTE SPEECH AT THE EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY FORUM Delivered in Bilbao on 9th June, 2009

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oday we stand at a crossroads in history. The warnings from our most respected scientists are loud and clear, yet government leaders continue to ignore the scale of the threat. According to many scientists, we have less than a decade left to address the issue of climate change before we reach the "tipping point", or the point of no return. The earth is perilously close to dramatic climate change that threatens to spiral way out of control.

Scientists now generally accept that current pledges of 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2020 are inadequate given the gravity of the current situation: we have already reached the stage of dangerous climate change. The task now is to prevent catastrophic climate chaos. Failure to act effectively is likely to precipitate cataclysmic changes that may obliterate life on earth.

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$125 billion per year, they are projected to almost treble by 2030, to $340 billion annually. The world situation is deteriorating faster than we previously anticipated. In Professor Stern’s words "Global emissions of greenhouse gases are growing more quickly than projected, the ability of the planet to absorb those gases now appears lower than was assumed, the potential increases in temperatures due to rising gas concentrations seem higher, and the physical impacts of a warming planet are appearing at a faster rate than expected.

"Climate scientist James Hansen head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies suggested that the latest United Nation International Panel on Climate Change (UNIPCC) report on climate change, have been proved far too conservative and, might even be "absurdly optimistic".

As climate change kicks in, the tropical and subtropical countries of Africa, South Asia and Latin America will heat up more and more, with temperatures becoming increasingly intolerable. Droughts will affect large parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Melting glaciers will flood river valleys and then, when they have disappeared, unprecedented droughts will occur. Poor, low-lying countries such as Bangladesh will find hard to cope with raising sea level. The Global Humanitarian Forum, an organisation led by former UN Secretary General Mr Kofi Annan, recently issued a report which estimates that climate change accounts for over 300,000 deaths throughout the world each year and that, by 2030, this death toll will have increased to half a million people a year. The report also highlights the serious impact of climate change on the lives of 325 million people at present and an estimated 660 million, 10% of the world’s population, in twenty years’ time. As to economic losses due to climate change which today amount to over

Hansen previously estimated sea level rises of 4 to 5 metres this century, due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica.

He describes how the UNIPCC report fails to take geological records into account and ignores the so-called "albedo flip" property of water: In a recent report, Hansen says the EU target of 550 parts per million of CO2 – the most stringent in the world – should be slashed to 350 parts per million. He argues the cut is needed if "humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilisation developed".

As of today the planet has concentration of 389.47 parts carbon dioxide molecules per million. This number is rising by around 2 parts per million every year. Professor Hansen is unequivocal that: "If you leave us at 450ppm for long enough it will probably melt all the ice – that’s a sea rise of 75 metres.

What we have found is that the target we have all been ai-

Global Warming

“As climate change kicks in, the tropical and subtropical countries of Africa, South Asia and Latin America will heat up more and more, with temperatures becoming increasingly intolerable.

Droughts will affect large parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Melting glaciers will flood river valleys and then, when they have disappeared, unprecedented droughts will occur.“ B.J.

ming for is a disaster – a guaranteed disaster," he said. Given the scale of this impending disaster, we have no choice but to embark upon a global renewable energy revolution, by replacing our carbon-driven economy with a renewable energy economy. The challenge we are facing now is how to switch to a more secure, lower-carbon energy system that does not undermine economic and social development, and addresses the threats of climate change, energy security risk and global inequality.

Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue: it touches every part of our lives: peace, security, human rights, poverty, hunger, health, mass migration and economics. But climate change should not be seen just as a threat – it should be seen as an opportunity to embark on a renewable energy revolution.

The Renewable Energy Revolution A renewable energy revolution is the only way to deal with the threat of catastrophic climate change. Renewable solutions are affordable, available and a moral imperative Renewable energy is substantially cheaper than nuclear power both in the short term but particularly in the long term. Rather than threatening our security and geo-political stability a renewable energy solution enables and empowers individuals and communities and offers clean energy security for the people of both the developed and the developing world. Since renewable energy installations are less complex to operate than conventional facilities, plants can be managed by

local workforces as part of a decentralised system, to the benefit of poorer countries. Renewable energies not only avoid problems but create a plethora of opportunities – economic, environmental, and social. In Professor Nicholas Stern’s words: "investments in these technologies could provide sustainable and well-founded economic growth, in contrast to the recent booms, and eventual busts, driven by flaky dotcom ventures or inflated house prices."

The German renewable energy industry now employs around 280,000 people.

It has become a global market leader – selling equipment worth around $ 25 billion annually and has some of the highest deployment rates in the world.

Germany now produces over 19 percent of its electricity from renewable energy sources having risen from 4% in only 8 years. All this has been delivered at the cost of a pint of beer - $ 3.10 – per household per month, and these costs are expected to fall by 2013. Along with Spain, and Denmark, it is the most commonly cited example of successful renewable energy policy.

As of 2008, Spain’s employment figure in the sector is around 100,000, and Spain produces 7.5% of primary energy and 20% of electricity from renewable.

A recent study by the European Commission predicts that a 20% share for renewable energy in Europe’s total energy mix by 2020 would lead to a net gain of around 410,000 jobs, and 0.24 additional Gross Domestic Product.

The arguments that renewable energy does not provide sufficient or afforda-

ble alternatives to traditional energy sources have been exposed as flawed and false. The cost of finite conventional energies will continue to rise as the sources dry up. As Herman Scheer states in his excellent books, The Solar Economy and The Solar Manifesto, renewable energy costs will generally go down, as they consist almost exclusively of technology costs. Mass production and technological innovation will bring dramatic decreases in cost.

The costs for electricity generation of solar power decreased about 60 percent from 1991 to 2003. The costs for generating wind power declined more than 80 percent from the early 1980s until 2007.

In 2007, more than $100bn was invested worldwide in renewable energy technology. In 2008, for the first time, both the United States and the European Union added more power capacity from renewables than from traditional energy sources. Renewable energy is close to supplying a fifth of the world’s final energy consumption, if we include traditional biomass, large hydropower, and ‘new’ renewables such as small hydro, modern biomass, wind, solar, geothermal, and bio-fuels. At present, developing countries in the Global South enjoy little or no energy security, but a renewable energy revolution will have crucial economic and social benefits for the poorest countries in the world. Home-grown renewable sources provide developing countries with the means by which to insulate themselves against rising energy prices and to produce energy locally to fuel their economic development elsewhere in the

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WORLD ENVIRONMENT

A Copernican Revolution

world. With a decentralised renewable network there would be no need for expensive grid solutions. In developing these decentralised energy systems, we will be helping to preventing political and military conflicts sparked by scarcity of resources and some countries control over limited resources. This would give the developing world true and lasting energy security.

IRENA Promoting renewable energy must now become a global and universal priority.

The establishment of the International Renewable Energy Agency, "IRENA", was a critical step towards the achievement of a Copernican revolution. IRENA will be instrumental in ensuring global energy security and stability. Renewable energy technologies are the only viable solution to the imminent energy crisis.

This agency will work towards improved regulatory frameworks for renewable energy; provide policy guidance to governments; address the enormous need for research, development and technology transfer; enhance capacity building; and advice on financing renewable energy to both the developed and the developing world. IRENA represents a crucial step towards the decentralisation and democratisation of energy.

be emphatic: "a renewable energy future means that we don't need nuclear power".

Nuclear Energy Let me be clear nuclear technology is not a renewable energy, it is not lowemission and it cannot address the issues of climate change; is not a substitute for sustainable energy. Greenhouse gases are emitted at every stage of the nuclear fuel chain, from the mining, to uranium enrichment, through transportation and the construction of nuclear plants. Estimates vary, up to 288g of CO2 equivalent per kWh. But even a mean estimate of 66g CO2 per kWh, is significantly higher than the 10g per kWh emitted over the lifecycle of wind or hydro generation. Uranium is a finite fuel supply -our usable uranium reserves will run out within five decades- and its mining presents serious health risks.

“ The time has come for decisionmakers in politics and economics to embrace this opportunity.

There is no time for further excuses, postponement, or procrastination.“ Bianca JAGGER

Hermann Scheer was the driving force behind the establishment of IRENA. For two decades he struggled to achieve his vision of an International Renewable Energy Agency. During these years he has overcome countless obstacles, through his outstanding international leadership. The fact that IRENA is now a reality is largely due to his power of persuasion, determination and hard work. IRENA and Dr Scheer are inextricably connected.

IRENA is achieving great support; it already has 135 signatory countries. But we must not allow it to be hijacked by the nuclear industry, which is attempting to "green-wash" itself by trumpeting its carbon neutrality, and whose spin doctors and lobbyists are heralding a renaissance. We need to 8

Economic costs are extremely high -Finland’s EPR project is at least three and a half years behind schedule and 50% over budget– and the sector is only competitive so long as government’s pledge insurance security. Nuclear power has never been economical.

Every national nuclear programme is dependent on massive government investment and subsidies. Quite apart from the safety concerns nuclear energy represents a mammoth financial burden to future generations. Governments which subsidise nuclear power divert the finite funds available for energy investment away from the sustainable future: a renewable energy revolution.

The deployment of nuclear power comes with tremendous – and, to my mind, unacceptable – risks, including large-scale nuclear accidents; the problem of waste (highlighted by the recent US decision to abandon the Yucca mountain project in Nevada); the proliferation of nuclear waste increases the risk of a terrorist "dirty bomb" incident; the reactors and their waste depositories remain prime terrorist targets; nuclear proliferation in general, and last but not least the high water consumption of nuclear power plants.

CCS We should be wary of phrases like "the carbon-free economy". The French government’s use of terms such as "lowcarbon technology" is not exclusive of nuclear energy. So far, the expression has been used in relation to two technologies that fail to provide acceptable solutions to the energy crisis: "carbon capture and storage", or CCS technology, and nuclear power. One of the much vaunted possibilities of CCS technology is to allow a durable, fossil fuel based economy. However large scale CCS has not yet reached the trial stage, and there is concern that CO_ might leak. Implementing CCS will be much more expensive than providing energy from renewable sources, essentially because of the extra energy required to separate, transport and store the carbon dioxide.

Moving forward with renewable energy There is still unjustifiable political prejudice against renewable energy. While conventional energies enjoy political privilege, including large amounts of public money for research and development, military protection of the supply chain and $300 billion in global annual subsidies, renewable energies are discriminated against.

Only renewable energy offers the possibility of true energy efficiency. They are the only solution to the three key global energy challenges: energy security, cost efficiency and environmental protec-

Global Warming tion. It is not as if this is a sudden or unexpected crisis. We have known the limitations and damaging consequences of conventional energies for over thirty years. As Hermann Scheer puts it, the result so far has been "talking globally, postponing nationally", with the effect that the introduction of renewable energies has not been nearly fast enough.

Action The delays in investment and adoption of renewable energies have been environmentally and economically inexcusable. We now require concrete action. We must embark upon a Copernican revolution to prevent catastrophic climate change. On behalf of the World Future Council, of which I am the Chair and of the Bianca Jagger Human Rights Foundation of which I am founder and President I strongly urge the implementation of these simple solutions as part of the roadmap leading to the UNCCC in Copenhagen.

Points The criteria for the Copenhagen agreement should be based on scientific facts, not on political expediency and vested interests. This time we must not allow governments to pay mere "lip service" to any new agreement.

All governments must also subscribe to and support the work of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

Wealthy countries must live up to their responsibilities and set up an international investment fund that guarantees technology transfer from the Global North to the Global South. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, at least one trillion dollars must be invested over the next decade to enable developing countries to expand their economies through renewable energy, resource efficiency, and clean technologies.

Nuclear energy is not green energy.

We have to focus on renewable energy solutions that are truly solutions and do not create new risks.

All countries must transform taxes on energy into taxes on emissions, promoting the supply and demand of emission-free energy.

Bianca Jagger Bianca Jagger is a prominent international human rights and climate change advocate. She is a Council of Europe Goodwill Ambassador, Chair of the World Future Council, Founder and President of the Bianca Jagger Human Rights Foundation and Trustee of the Amazon Charitable Trust.

For approximately 30 years, Bianca Jagger has campaigned for human rights, peace, social justice and environmental protection throughout the world.

For her work in these areas, Jagger has been the recipient of many prestigious international awards, not least of which is the Right Livelihood Award, also known as the "alternative Nobel prize".

Others include the United Nations Earth Day International Award, the Amnesty International USA Media Spotlight Award for Leadership and the World Citizenship Award from The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. She has also received the World Achievement Award from Mikhail Gorbachev, and the Golden Peacock Award for the Protection of Human Rights.

She has also been awarded two doctorates, honoris causa: the first by Stonehill College, Massachusetts, and the second by Simmons College, Boston.

We must embark upon a global programme of forest protection and reforestation. Deforestation contributes nearly 20 per cent of the overall greenhouse gases emissions. The Stern review on the Economics of Climate Change recognises that "curbing deforestation is a highly cost-effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions."

Planting 10 million square kilometres of new forests will help stabilise the concentration of CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere at 350 parts per million.

We must establish a new international initiative combining biosphere protection and restoration, in order to reverse the decline of biodiversity.

We must provide financial incentives that empower households and businesses to invest in renewable energy and resource efficiency. For example, "Feed-in Tariff" legislation in Germany has created a quarter of a million new jobs and enabled millions of people to benefit from renewable technologies.

Governments and Corporations whose practices put the environment and human life at risk must be held accountable for their actions.

Closing I would like to finish by quoting

Dr. Scheer: To be able to discuss energy as a separate matter is an intellectual illusion. The CO2 emissions are not the only problem of fossil energy. The radioactive contamination is not the only problem of atomic power.

Many other dangers are caused by using atomic and fossil energies: From the polluted cities to the erosion of rural areas; from water pollution to desertification; from mass migration to overcrowded settlements and the declining security of individuals and states.

Because the present energy system lies at the root of these problems, renewables are the solution to these problems.

That means: Nothing is macro-economically better and cheaper than the total substitution of conventional energies by renewables.

We need a hard-line strategy for soft energies. Dr Scheer’s words show that this is the over-riding moral imperative of the century: the time has come for decision-makers in politics and economics to embrace this opportunity. There is no time for further excuses, postponement, or procrastination. This is a time for courage and leadership, and for positive and immediate action.

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By Christopher KNIGHT

GLOBAL CONSENSUS ON ENERGY SOLUTIONS REMAINS ELUSIVE

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hen Ralph Sims gives talks on energy use, like one he offered at a seminar in September in Paris, he ends the address by getting personal "When I give presentations on future energy demands and climate change, I often show a picture of my 1-year-old granddaughter and ask - what will their world be like when she is my age? People take notice," Sims said.

As a senior analyst at the International Energy Agency, he finds himself trying to stay hopeful but sometimes growing despondent.

"There’s no doubt that we have procrastinated too long to make decisions," Sims said.

Although oil prices are now sliding fast from record levels near $150 a barrel this year, other parts of the picture are bleak. Demand from rapidly expanding economies in China and India seems likely to keep rising; exporting countries from Russia to South America and the Middle East have nationalized energy production; and the search for "cheap" oil is getting ever harder.

Some analysts have suggested that the global supply of oil could start dropping in the not-too-distant future; meanwhile, progress on developing substitute fuels and alternative energies is frustratingly slow, and some, like grain-based biofuels, are facing fierce economic and environmental challenges. Consumers often want quick answers to energy problems like rising gasoline prices, but with issues like oil or biofuel, it is often impossible to make rapid changes.

In the United States, oil prices have led to heated discussions in the presidential election campaign, with consumers calling for lower prices, now.

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The market may be delivering that wish, but the earlier price surge cruelly exposed the lack of any clear policy response, with the Republican ticket calling for more nuclear reactors and increased U.S. oil production, with chants like "drill, baby, drill," and the Democratic nominee, Barack Obama, dismissing those solutions as under-researched and utterly ineffective within a 10-year time frame.

Global Warming

Use energy wisely, don’t use a car when you don’t need to, insulate the buildings, use more public transport, hop on a bicycle.

Andrew Busch, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, in Claremont, California, who follows U.S. energy issues and the U.S. presidential election, said it was hard to find a consensus on long-term energy priorities in the United States or internatio-

nally. "There is not even a consensus among experts on whether to have a long-term plan, if by a plan you mean a top-down, five-year plan," Busch said.

"Part of the problem is that energy issues are so closely intertwined with

environmental issues. If one were to judge the issue purely on the criteria of what improves America’s energy position, the issue would be much easier politically - we would drill for as much oil as we could and we would rely more on coal, of which we have 11

WORLD ENVIRONMENT

Global Consensus on Energy Solutions Remains Elusive

abundant supplies, and nuclear." Environmental groups, however, strongly oppose all those options, he noted. "So John McCain favors what is sometimes called the ‘all of the above’ approach, while Obama’s options are more limited," Busch said.

Since the United States consumes about a quarter of the world’s energy production, this policy uncertainty has global repercussions.

Arriving at a long-term global solution for energy use and conservation is fraught with confusion, too, because globalization has its limits, and different parts of the world have different needs. In Europe and the United States, supply and security are the top energy issues; but in much of Africa and Asia, just sustaining a living is the priority: providing access to fuel for cooking, heating and essential transportation. In the industrialized world, "People want to drive into a service station any time of the day or night and fill up with petrol or diesel," said Sims, the analyst.

"But of course in Indonesia, Afghanistan and Kenya, they have different expectations altogether," he said. "They are pleased when the lights come on and when they can get petrol, if they even have a car."

In Europe, the energy debate often focuses on price and security; and while the price issue may lose its edge as the recession bites into demand, security concerns seem increasingly acute as a resurgent Russia increasingly uses its energy supply position for geopolitical advantage.

Still, Ferran Tarradellas, the European Commission’s energy spokesman in Brussels, said ensuring a steady flow of gas or oil from Russia should not be a top energy concern for the European

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“ With mean atmospheric temperature predicted to keep rising well into this century, even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized, the world must face up to a long-term reality of rising sea levels and increasingly vicious weather.“ Ralph Sims

With countries like China and India increasingly competing for oil and natural gas, Europe must concentrate on producing its own energy, he said, while fostering a global dialogue with consumers and producers to facilitate a free and diversified flow of supplies. "Oil is not something that is going to last forever, and the transport sector is so dependent on oil," Terradellas said. European Union leaders have set a goal that at least 10 percent of transportation fuel should come from biofuels by 2020.

Union. Russia needs Europe just as much as Europe needs Russia, he said, and behind the Kremlin’s occasional bluster that reality is recognized, at least for now. "They are our main supplier and we are their main market," Tarradellas said. "It’s important for both of us to have good relations."

Though some organizations have expressed concerns that this effort could contribute to a further rise in food prices, the EU has stuck by its goal, saying that promoting the right biofuels should ultimately cut the energy cost of producing food and bringing it to market.

Europe’s main long-term concerns, Tarradellas said, should be conservation and the production of renewable energy, especially for transportation.

At the energy agency, Sims takes a more cautiously nuanced view of biofuels; in the long term, with more research and investment, fuels based on nonfood biomass could - and the emphasis is on could, rather than should - become effective substitutes for traditional oil and gas, he said.

"There certainly has been a lot of improvement, and the cost has come down," Sims said, referring to first-generation biofuels made from corn and other food crops, "but I don’t think some are going to be viable without subsidies, even at high oil prices."

For biofuels to play a significant, costeffective role, technology must improve and investment must rise to develop second- or even third-generation biofuels, made from nonfood sources like grasses or wood chips.

Even then, there "is no guarantee if and when" biofuels will be commercially viable, he said. Yet on oil itself, Sims strikes a more optimistic note.

Global Warming are going to waste the energy price crisis or not," Hobbs said, referring to the high price of oil. "Will they allow the price of gasoline to fall so that people are no longer willing to spend extra money on hybrid cars? Will they allow the price of gas and coal to fall and undermine the move to build wind and solar power or undermine the economics of biofuel?"

No one, he said, can predict when the world will reach "peak oil" production, the point at which a global decline in output begins. "We still have more oil underground that has not been tapped," Sims said.

"There are major oil reserves off the coast of Brazil, for example, and technology is changing, allowing us to drill in deeper and deeper water. We’re looking in places that couldn’t have been contemplated a few years ago. People tend to forget that technology changes. There is always new extraction technology."

If consumers are willing to pay the rising economic and environmental costs, "there is a whole slate of liquid fuels to keep the world going," he said.

David Hobbs, managing director of global research at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said the surge in the price of oil this year had made him optimistic about the future because it should have pushed politicians and the private sector to work harder on alternatives.

"I think what is much more interesting for the long run is whether politicians

Certainly, if policy is driven by short-term price, it is unlikely to show much long-term coherence. Over the past 10 years, oil prices have dropped to $10 a barrel in the late 1990s and hit nearly $150 a barrel this year. But, a Cambridge Energy report this year concluded, multiple factors, including concern about global warming as a threat to political and environmental security, will continue to push governments toward alternative energy development, if necessary by means of subsidies, even if oil drops durably below $100 a barrel.

global warming, Sims said. But, he added, "the IEA’s message is very clear: We can’t keep doing what we’re doing. What we need to do now is start to change, to move forward to new energy sources and increase the uptake of energy efficiency. We should err on the cautious side. It’s stupid to ignore what the vast majority of science is saying, just in case science is right."

Sims said every consumer should do more to save energy, money and the environment.

"The key message out of all of this is pretty simple: not to waste the stuff," he said. "Use energy wisely, don’t use a car when you don’t need to, insulate the buildings, use more public transport, hop on a bicycle."

Courtesy of Anthill magazine Christopher Knight is Copy editor at International Herald Tribune

Both Sims and Tarradellas said conservation should be a top focus over the long term, rather than focusing on more drilling or hoping for a big, quick switch to alternative fuels.

Sims, perhaps surprisingly for an analyst at an agency focused on strategic energy security, also urged attention to be directed at reducing greenhouse gases and fighting global warming. With mean atmospheric temperature predicted to keep rising well into this century, even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized, he said, the world must face up to a longterm reality of rising sea levels and increasingly vicious weather.

"There is still a lot of negotiating" over policy on

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Global Warming

By Alya KEBIRI

MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND CLIMATE CHANGE Stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions is an essential part of the overall fight against poverty and for the Millennium Development Goals

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oday, the effects of climate change are being felt around the world. But they are being felt most by those who are the least able to cope. Indeed, the terrible irony for many developing countries is that, though they have contributed the least to the process of climate change, they are the ones most at risk from its consequences. For some people this is a matter of survival.

The international development community has been very slow to absorb the reality that strategies to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are being stabbed in the back by the impact of climate change. The influential UK economist, Lord Nicholas Stern, has estimated that neglect of the climate change dimension could add $100 billion to the cost of attaining the MDGs. The necessary correction was eventually marked by the UN Human Development Report for 2007/08 (HDR 2007) which for the first time focused on the impact of climate change on poverty. The Report

is unequivocal in concluding that stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions is an "essential part of the overall fight against poverty and for the MDGs".

The interdependence is all too painfully obvious. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, a section of the 2007 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), confirms that freshwater availability and crop yields, the fundamentals of human development, will bear the brunt of climate change.

Africa is not only the most vulnerable region but is also the one continent for which IPCC offers quantified predictions as early as 2020. It says that between 75 and 250 million people in Africa may experience water stress, whilst crop yields in some countries could be reduced by 50%. In Asia, glacier retreat in the Himalayas may lead to water shortages for about 1/6th of the world's population by 2050.

Climate change, through geographic changes in weather patterns, rainfall and temperature, is predicted to in-

crease dramatically the ex-tent and prevalence of some vector borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. Extreme weather events may also increase vulnerability to water, food or person-to-person borne diseases such as cholera and dysentery and lead to increases in heat-related mortality and illness. Floods and droughts may result in declining quantity and quality of drinking water, which is a prerequisite for good health and prevention of child mortality. Climate change may exacerbate malnutrition by reducing natural resource productivity.

The increased prevalence of climaterelated diseases would add new stresses to health systems already overwhelmed by HIV/AIDS. People from developing and least developed countries living with HIV/AIDS are particularly vulnerable as they are more affected by food shortages and infections. This vulnerability is being impacted by the currently observed shift of HIV/AIDS from urban to rural

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areas. Estimates show that 80% of the people living in the countries most affected by HIV/AIDS rely on agricultural-based livelihoods, which are also likely to be threatened by climate change.

Pressure on food security and water resources will undermine development strategies for improving education, health services and opportunities for women. Shifting patterns of malaria may jeopardize efforts towards its elimination. The whole pack of cards assembled by the MDGs is built on shaky climate foundations.

A key step to integrating biodiversity and climate change considerations in the health-related MDGs is the development of an improved understanding of the expected impacts and potential adaptation strategies. Understanding the impacts of climate change on medicinal plants and disease-carriers is necessary for health planning under changing climatic conditions.

Improving health and sanitation requires healthy, functioning ecosystems to supply clean water, genetic resources for medicines, and natural resources to meet nutritional needs.

Activities that are aimed to adapt to climate change by maintaining a healthy and safe environment can promote people’s health.

Research by the UK-based International Institute for Environment and Development shows that the 100 countries most vulnerable to climate change together account for just 3.2% of global carbon dioxide emissions. It is inconceivable that any international agreements could be blind to the injustice inherent in climate change that the poorest countries will suffer the greatest impact whilst being the lowest contributors.

"Adaptation" is the term given to remedial measures which might attract international reparations for the im-

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pact of climate change on poor countries. The UN-funded National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) prepared by each Least Developed Country (LDC) largely focus on areas already identified in development programmes, portraying climate change as additional pressure on the existing causes of poverty.

A concrete outcome at Bali was the establishment of the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, a scheme to explore how 20 developing countries might be compensated for "Reducing Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)".

The HDR 2007 estimates that adaptation in developing countries requires the sum of $86 billion pa, almost as much as the entire current global aid budget. The UN’s new Adaptation Fund, set up in 2008, currently holds just $50 million, a sum that a European country might contemplate for a single flood defense scheme. Establishing meaningful financial commitments for this fund will be a priority for climate justice campaigners.

There has been a consistent tendency for new ideas for cutting greenhouse gas emissions to impact negatively on poorer countries - none more so than the craze for biofuels. Whilst developing countries could benefit from demand for new cash crops, it is widely acknowledged that hasty biofuel targets announced by both the US and EU were partly responsible for spiraling food prices in 2008. The result is likely to see 100 million people added to the category of extreme poverty.

There is further injustice in the concept adopted by governments and some campaigning agencies of a "line in the sand" - a tolerance threshold for

global warming of 2 degrees beyond which the world steps at its peril.

Whilst there may be an element of pragmatism in this suggestion, the IPCC 2007 report shows how the richer countries may be relatively unscathed up to this threshold - indeed crop production in temperate zones will increase - whilst crops in tropical regions are already at their limit of temperature sensitivity.

Small island states will feel even more aggrieved by a tolerance of 2 degrees; the governments of Maldives and Tuvalu are already contemplating the mass migration of their populations to new countries. With displacement also predicted from low-lying delta regions such as Bangladesh, difficult questions arise regarding the status of people forced to leave their homes will they be allowed the same rights as political refugees? The UN University has warned of the potential for up to 200 million climate refugees by 2050.

The successor to the Kyoto Protocol is very likely to include substantial provision for action to reduce deforestation, now that there is greater scientific clarity that the loss of tropical forests contributes a massive 20% of all greenhouse gas emissions. A concrete outcome at Bali was the establishment of the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, a scheme to explore how 20 developing countries might be compensated for "Reducing Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)".

Lord Stern has suggested a figure of $5 billion per annum for the 8 countries contributing 70% of forestrelated emissions, just 5% of current foreign aid budgets. Addressing deforestation could be one of the most efficient and cost effective ways of tackling climate change whilst simultaneously delivering the many other valuable benefits of protecting tropical forests. Negotiations have focused on the very considerable logistical difficulties of measurement and verification.

Global Warming

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Climate change is a serious threat to development everywhere.

Indeed, the adverse impacts of climate change could undo much of the investment made to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.

China and India present the great dilemma for post-2012 negotiations.

Should they be classified as developing or industrialized countries? Both are host to hundreds of millions of desperately poor people yet India's industrial tycoons nowadays make takeover bids for major European companies whilst, according to the World Bank, China contributes 24% of global carbon dioxide emissions, well ahead of the US with 21%. The issues are complex, not least that China's dominance of manufactured goods effectively imports carbon emissions from the consumer countries in 2005 14% of China's emissions were discharged on goods destined for the US where they could have been manufactured in more efficient factories and without transportation costs.

Extrapolations from the current low per-capita consumption in these two high population countries create cli-

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mate change scenarios more akin to disaster movies than a scientific basis for policy-making. Yet neither country is prepared for the foreseeable future to compromise economic development with enforceable emissions targets.

Manmohan Singh, the Indian prime minister, has said that social development is the first priority and that "the developing world cannot accept a freeze on global inequity". India's per capita carbon dioxide emissions are 1.1 tonnes per annum against 20 tonnes in the US. An important influence on the politics could be the specific impact of climate change in these countries. Both face alarming risks from the thaw of Himalayan glaciers; restricted flow into the River Ganges could impact 400 million people and 35% of India's irrigated land. Both are dependent on stable monsoon rainfall for agriculture and water supplies, stability which is already showing signs of breakdown.

Both countries acknowledge the serious threat of climate change and have started to put in place institutional structures to address the issue, alongside some quantifiable energyrelated objectives. Nevertheless there is no current prospect of either India or China being drawn into a postKyoto agreement which involves targets for carbon dioxide emissions.

Climate change is a serious threat to development everywhere. Indeed, the adverse impacts of climate change could undo much of the investment made to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. But it is not a zero-sum game. By being creative, we can reduce emissions while promoting economic growth. This is our opportunity to: advance sustainable development; encourage new kinds of cleaner technologies, industries and jobs; and integrate climate change risks into national policies and practices.

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MAGAZINE

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EU ACTION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE Leading global action to 2020 and beyond

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limate change is happening now; The world has warmed by an average of 0.76º Celsius since pre-industrial times and the temperature rise is accelerating, according to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Sea levels rose almost twice as fast between 1993 and 2003 as during the previous three decades. Manmade emissions of greenhouse gases are causing these changes.

Without action to limit future emissions, the global average temperature is likely to increase further by 1.8º to 4ºC this century, and in the

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worst case scenario by as much as 6.4°C., the AR4 projects.

We cannot allow this to happen. United Nations negotiations on an international climate agreement for the period after 2012, when the Kyoto Protocol’s emission targets will expire, are due to be concluded in Copenhagen at the end of 2009.

This agreement must be ambitious, global and comprehensive. Climate change can be addressed effectively only through a global effort. The European Union is showing the way forward. It has committed to a set of far-reaching climate and energy targets and is putting in place concrete

measures to achieve them.

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The European Union is leading global action on climate change, both by setting out what needs to be done internationally to keep global warming to less than 2°C above the preindustrial temperature and by committing to significant cuts in its own greenhouse gas emissions.

The EU’s agreed objective is to limit global warming to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial level – equivalent to around 1.2°C above today’s temperature. This is widely seen as the threshold beyond which climate change will become dangerous, bringing a much greater risk of irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes in the global environment.

For the world to have a fair chance of keeping the average temperature rise below 2ºC, global emissions of greenhouse gases will have to peak before 2020 and then be reduced by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050.

This goal is both technically feasible and economically affordable if major emitters act urgently. The benefits of doing so will far outweight the limited economic costs.

The high cost of failing to act The growing evidence of the cost of climate change points to one simple conclusion: we cannot afford to do nothing. The 2006 Stern Review on the economics of climate change and other studies reaffirm the enormous costs of failing to act. These costs –not only economic but social and environmental, too– will fall especially heavily on the poor, in developed and developing countries alike. Allowing 22

climate change to continue unabated would also have serious regional and global security implications.

The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows that climate change is already having strong effects on ecosystems, water resources and coastal zones across the world. It is affecting people in various ways, including higher mortality during heatwaves, water scarcity, and changes in the distribution of diseases carried by vectors such as ticks and mosquitoes.

The Stern Review projects that, in the long term, climate change could cut global gross domestic product (GDP) each year by between 5% and as much as 20% or more if it is not brought under control by cutting greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Taking global action to combat climate change is thus the pro-growth strategy for the longer term.

The earlier we act, the less costly action will be. The European Commission’s analysis shows that the investment needed to achieve a lowcarbon economy would cost only around 0.5% of world GDP between 2013 and 2030. The emission cuts required to keep global warming below 2°C would reduce average GDP

growth by less than 0.12% points per year up to 2050, the IPCC estimates.

This is a small insurance premium to pay to prevent dangerous levels of climate change. And these cost figures take no account of the benefits of cutting emissions, such as reduced damage from avoided climate change, greater energy security, and healthcare savings from less air pollution.

A global challenge that requires global action The Kyoto Protocol was a vital first step. It required developed countries to start reducing their emissions and has put in place a set of international rules, market-based mechanisms and funds for addressing climate change.

But climate change is a global problem, and only global action can bring it under control. A global agreement covering all major emitters is now needed for the period after 2012, when the emission targets for developed countries set by the Kyoto Protocol expire.

The new agreement will have to be far more ambitious in order to keep global warming below 2°C compared with the pre-industrial temperature. Most of the technologies required to achieve deep reductions in emissions

Global Warming exist already or are well on the way to becoming operational.

transforming Europe into a highly energy-efficient, low-carbon economy.

A global agreement is also important for the business community, which is increasingly calling for a coherent, stable and efficient policy framework to guide its long-term investment decisions. The shift towards a low-carbon global economy is a huge opportunity for business, especially in terms of technological innovation, which can drive economic growth and the creation of new jobs.

They underlined their determination to see the Union gain a ‘first mover advantage’ by committing the EU to cut emissions by at least 20% of 1990 levels by 2020, regardless of what action other countries take.

Europe is determined to take full advantage of this opportunity.

EU initiatives show the way ahead

These emissions targets are underpinned by three energy-related objectives, which are also to be met by 2020: a 20% reduction in energy consumption through improved energy efficiency; an increase in renewable energy’s share of the market to 20% (from around 9% today); and as part of the renewable energy effort, a 10% share for sustainably produced biofuels and other renewable fuels in transport in each Member State.

The December 2008 climate and energy package The adoption of the climate and energy package makes the European Union the first region of the world to have both committed to such ambitious targets and put in place the measures needed to achieve them. The package demonstrates the EU’s leadership and shows that making the deep emissions cuts necessary to avert dangerous climate change is fully compatible with continued economic growth and prosperity.

The investment that the package requires will stimulate Europe’s economy, jobs and innovation in the short to medium term while laying the basis for a more sustainable, lower-carbon economy in the longer term.

Gt CO2-eq

The European Union is leading global action on climate change, both by setting out what needs to be done interThe package will help reduce emissions nationally to keep global warming to by 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. Howeless than 2°C above the pre-industrial ver, it also puts in place the necessary temperature and by committing to siarrangements for scaling this up to The December 2008 climate 30% under a satisfactory global clignificant cuts in its own greenhouse and energy package. gas emissions. To put the world on mate agreement. In this case, EU goAfter extensive economic analysis and track to reduce global emissions by at vernments and companies will be consultation with member states, in least half of 1990 levels by 2050, the allowed to use higher amounts of creJanuary 2008 the European CommisIPCC’s AR4 shows that developed dits from emission-saving projects in sion put forward a major package of countries collectively need to cut their third countries to offset their emissions. legislative measures to implement emissions to 25-40% below 1990 lethese climate and renewable energy vels by 2020 and by 80-95% by 2050.

A stronger emissions trading targets.

If current emission trends continue, system the 2°C threshold Central to the package may be crossed as is a strengthening and early as 2050.

Technologies that could reduce global CO emissions expansion from 2013 2 Technologies that could reduce global CO2 emissions fromenergy energy combustion of the Emissions Trafrom combustion EU heads of state ding Scheme (EU ETS), 38 Energy Efficiency and government the EU’s key tool for 36 made a commitment cutting greenhouse Fossil fuel switch 34 in March 2007 that gas emissions cost-efRenewable energies 32 the EU will cut its fectively. The revam30 emissions to 30% ped EU ETS will Nuclear energy 28 below 1990 levels by contribute some twoCarbon capture and 26 2020 in the context thirds of the overall storage 24 of a global and comemission reductions Remaining CO2 22 prehensive internaemissions the EU intends to 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 tional agreement, achieve by 2020. provided other developed countries The cap on emission Following intensive negotiations, the bincommit to making comparable reducallowances for the sectors covered ding measures were agreed by EU leations. The economically more advanby the system –power generation, ders and the European Parliament in ced developing countries should also energy-intensive manufacturing indusDecember 2008 and were signed into pledge to make an adequate contributry and, from 2012, aviation– will be cut law in April 2009. They complement ontion according to their abilities. At the in a linear fashion every year from going work to improve energy efficiency. same time, EU leaders committed to 2013, with the result that the number

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of emission allowances available in 2020 will be 21% below 2005 levels.

By fixing the limits on emission allowances for the medium term well in advance, the EU is providing the investment certainty that will drive the large-scale development and deployment of emission-reduction technologies and low carbon solutions. Once a global agreement has been reached, the EU cap will be adjusted to a stricter reduction target as necessary.

The scope of the system will also be extended to include further big industrial emitters, such as the chemicals and aluminium sectors. As well as emissions of CO2 and nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons from aluminium production will also be covered.

developed in other parts of the world. The development of a network of linked schemes will strengthen the international carbon market, enabling it to play a key role in achieving global emission reductions at least cost.

Tackling emissions from other sectors Sectors not covered by the revised EU ETS – such as transport (except aviation), buildings and households, agriculture, and waste – will still account for almost 60% of the EU’s overall emissions. Emissions from these nonETS sectors will be cut by 10% of 2005 levels by 2020.

This will be done through agreed national emission targets for 2020 which, to ensure a fair distribution of effort, have been differentiated according to member states’ relative wealth (measured by GDP per capita). The targets range from a 20% emissions reduction by the richest Member States (Denmark, Ireland and Luxembourg) to a 20% emissions increase by the poorest one (Bulgaria).

Increasing renewable energy To ensure that the EU target of obtaining 20% of energy consumption from clean, renewable energy by 2020 is met, differentiated national targets have been agreed based on national wealth and renewables potential. The targets range from a renewables market share of 10% for Malta up to 49% for Sweden. Achieving these targets will both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the EU’s energy security.

The renewables legislation also lays down a 10% target for renewable transport fuels in each country and sets out sustainability criteria that biofuels must meet to be counted towards this target.

Promoting carbon capture and storage

The current system of fixing 27 natioThe climate and energy package puts nal caps on emissions from the ETS in place a legal framework for carbon sectors will be replaced from 2013 by capture and storage (CCS) aimed at faa single EU-wide cap. Instead of recilitating the development and safe ceiving emission allowances for free, use of this promising family of techbusinesses covered by the system nologies. CCS enables the carbon will have to buy a progressively hidioxide emitted by industrial progher share at auction. From 2013 cesses to be captured and stored unaround 50% of total alderground where it lowances will be auctiocannot contribute to gloned and the goal is to bal warming.

Projected greenhouse gas emissions (industry and energy emissions only, under business as usual) reach full auctioning by 2 Projected greenhouse gas emissions 2027. However, in the abThe European CommisGt CO2 (industry and energy emissions only, under business as usual) sence of a satisfactory sion wants to see CCS 25 global climate agreetechnology become 20 ment, certain energy-incommercially viable by Developing 15 tensive sectors whose around 2020. Up to 12 countries competitiveness is juddemonstration projects Developed 10 countries ged to be at risk would for CCS and innovative 5 continue to receive up to renewable energy tech100% of their allowances 0 nologies will be funded 2020 1990 2000 for free, provided they from the proceeds from used state-of-the-art auctioning 300 million technology.

EU ETS allowances.

This approach means the less wealthy EU Member States will have room to Auctioning will raise considerable new Addressing emissions continue growing their economies but income for governments, and member from transport will still need to keep their emissions states have agreed that at least half of While the EU is successfully reducing below ‘business-as-usual’ levels. It this revenue should be used to combat greenhouse gas emissions from magives practical effect within the Euroclimate change at home and abroad. nufacturing, waste and energy propean Union to the international prinduction and use, emissions from ciple that countries at different levels Strengthening the EU ETS through transport continue to grow steadily. of development have "common but these changes will make it a more atEfforts are under way to address this differentiated responsibilities" in tacktractive partner for linking with simichallenge. operating flights to and ling climate change. lar cap and- trade systems being from EU airports will require emis24

Global Warming Global warming must be kept below 2ºC: For the world to have a fair chance of keeping the average temperature rise below 2ºC, global emissions of greenhouse gases will have to peak before 2020 and then be reduced by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050.

sion allowances to offset its emissions. The European Commission is also considering ways to address emissions from shipping.

The climate and energy package is complemented by two further legislative acts agreed at the same time.

These require: A reduction in CO2 emissions from new cars to an average of 120g per km, to be phased in between 2012 and 2015. This represents a cut of around 25% from current levels. The CO2 limit will be further reduced to 95g per km in 2020. This measure alone will contribute more than one-third of the emission reduction required from non-ETS sectors by 2020; A reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transport fuels of 6%, with a possibility to increase this to 10%, by 2020.

Research For 2007-2013, the EU has substantially increased its research and development budget for environment, energy and transport to €8.4 billion.

This is helping to support the deployment of clean technologies as well as further strengthening knowledge of climate change and its impacts. Besides helping to avert the most damaging impacts of global climate change, reducing greenhouse gas emissions will bring the EU a range of co-benefits. These include improving energy security, reducing air pollution and its associated health and control costs, and increasing employment.

comes increasingly dependent on imported energy. in 2030. Reliance on imports of gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% by 2030, and of oil from 82% to 93%.

There is thus a very strong economic case for making more efficient use of resources, as a contribution towards improving EU competitiveness, even before the associated benefits of cutting emissions are taken into consideration.

With implementation of the December 2008 climate and energy package, the cost of oil and gas imports is expected to drop by around ¤50 billion per year in 2020. This estimate is based on an oil price of US$61 per barrel, so if prices go higher the saving will be larger.

With ‘business as usual’, energy import dependence will jump from 50% of total EU energy consumption today to 65%.

Reducing air pollution and health costs Cutting greenhouse gas emissions will also reduce air pollution, which still causes 370,000 premature deaths in Europe every year. The associated air quality benefits of bringing down CO2 emissions by just 10% by 2020 would yield healthcare savings of up to €27 billion per year. The reduced need for measures to control air pollution will bring additional savings of €11 billion per year in 2020.

Increasing employment Improving energy efficiency and security Security of supply is a growing concern as the European Union be-

Eco-industries are one of the most dynamic sectors of the European economy, growing at around 5% a year in response to global demand for green

technologies, products and services.

They employ some 3.4 million people in Europe and offer particular growth potential. Renewable energy technologies have already created 300,000 jobs, and it is estimated that a 20% share for renewables will take this to almost 1 million by 2020 – and possibly more if Europe exploits its full potential to be a world leader in this field.

Looking towards a new global climate change agreement In December 2009 in Copenhagen, the 192 Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - 191 countries plus the European Community - aim to reach an agreement on global action to combat climate change covering the period after 2012. Discussions to prepare the new agreement were launched at the end of 2007 in Bali, Indonesia. The Bali Action Plan forms the core of an agreed ‘roadmap’ that sets the agenda for the negotiations.

The European Union has been developing its position on post-2012 action since 2005. In January 2009, the European Commission proposed a comprehensive vision for the agreement in its “Copenhagen Communication.” This was endorsed by the EU’s environment ministers in March 2009 as well as by EU leaders at their European Council summit later the same month.

Developed countries must continue to lead...

Developed countries are responsible for 75% of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere today, excluding those from tropical deforestation.

These nations have the most financial resources and the greatest technolo-

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gical capacity to cut their emissions.

The European Union and the other developed countries must therefore show the way forward and demonstrate that a low-carbon economy is both feasible and affordable. Under the post-2012 agreement they should take on binding, quantifiable commitments to reduce emissions from their entire economy by an amount consistent with the objective of keeping global warming to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature.

The IPCC’s AR4 shows that meeting this objective will require emission reductions by developed countries, as a group, in the range of 25-40% by 2020 and 80-95% by 2050, compared with 1990 levels.

The EU is committed to scaling up its own emissions reduction for 2020 from 20% to 30% if other developed and developing countries agree in Copenhagen to take on their fair share of the collective effort needed.

The EU is also calling on other countries which are at comparable levels of development or per-capita wealth to developed countries to consider making similar commitments. This goes particularly for OECD member countries or candidate countries which do not have emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol.

Sharing the effort fairly The collective emissions reduction by developed countries must be shared out fairly in a way that ensures each country makes a comparable effort.

The distribution of the overall target should be based on each country’s responsibility for emissions and its capability to reduce them. A balanced combination of criteria should be used to assess comparability, such as: Capacity to pay for domestic emission reductions and purchase reduction credits from developing countries: nations with high per capita income levels should contribute more to reducing emissions at home and in other countries.

Potential for cutting greenhouse 26

Vulnerable populations are the first to suffer the impact of floods, storms, droughts and the other effects of climate change, developing countries have every interest in joining the global effort to meet the 2째C objective.

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gas emissions: countries with less efficient economies usually have more scope for reducing GHG output at lower cost, and should therefore contribute more to overall cuts.

Domestic early action to reduce GHG emissions: past reduction efforts should be rewarded when assessing the size of cuts on current levels.

Population trends and total GHG emissions: countries with growing populations should be asked for smaller cuts than those with stable or declining populations.

... But action by developing countries is also essential As developing countries expand their economies their emissions are increasing, and by 2020 these are projected to overtake total emissions from the developed world – indeed, they have already done so if emissions from deforestation and forest degradation are counted. It is therefore indispensable that developing countries, and in particular the more advanced emerging economies, start to limit their emissions growth.

Industrialised countries, for their part, will have to significantly boost their cooperation with developing countries to provide the necessary finance and technology and to support capacity building.

Recent scientific evidence indicates that, to keep the 2°C objective within reach, developing countries as a group will need to limit the rise in their emissions to 15-30% below ‘business as usual’ levels by 2020.

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation will need to be part of this action. Tropical deforestation in developing countries generates around 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions more than all forms of transport combined. The EU proposes that the Copenhagen agreement should fix the objective of at least halving tropical deforestation from current levels by 2020 and halting global loss of forest cover by 2030 at the latest. This would also have 28

Tropical deforestation in developing countries generates around 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions more than all forms of transport combined.

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation will need to be part of this action. Tropical deforestation in developing countries generates around 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions - more than all forms of transport combined. The EU proposes that the Copenhagen agreement should fix the objective of at least halving tropical deforestation from current levels by 2020 and halting global loss of forest cover by 2030 at the latest. This would also have major benefits for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development.

These actions by developing countries are feasible without jeopardising economic growth and poverty reduction.

major benefits for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development.

While much of the effort to fight climate change in the immediate future must come from the developed nations, their actions alone will not be enough to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

As developing countries expand their economies their emissions are increasing, and by 2020 these are projected to overtake total emissions from the developed world – indeed, they have already done so if emissions from deforestation and forest degradation are counted. It is therefore indispensable that developing countries, and in particular the more advanced emerging economies, start to limit their emissions growth.

Industrialised countries, for their part, will have to significantly boost their cooperation with developing countries to provide the necessary finance and technology and to support capacity building.

Recent scientific evidence indicates that, to keep the 2°C objective within reach, developing countries as a group will need to limit the rise in their emissions to 15-30% below ‘business as usual’ levels by 2020.

Just as measures to combat climate change will benefit Europe, they are also in the long-term interest of less wealthy countries. Since vulnerable populations are the first to suffer the impact of floods, storms, droughts and the other effects of climate change, developing countries have every interest in joining the global effort to meet the 2°C objective.

The cost would be modest. By 2020, GDP is expected to double in China and India, and to rise by 50% in Brazil.

The European Commission estimates that taking action to cut emissions would shave just 1% point off this GDP growth. In reality, the cost is likely to be even smaller and probably even negative since these estimates do not take into account the benefits of avoiding the damage that climate change would cause.

Low-carbon development strategies The EU is proposing that under the Copenhagen agreement all developing countries, except the least developed countries, should commit to adopting low-carbon development strategies. These should set out a credible pathway to limit emissions through nationally appropriate mitigation actions covering all key emitting sectors, especially power and transport, major energy-intensive in-

Global Warming dustries and, where significant, forestry and agriculture.

Low carbon development strategies should differentiate between actions which can be funded from domestic sources and those which require international financial and technical support.

for capacity building and priority actions, but further financing will be needed under the Copenhagen agreement to meet the cost of adaptation in developing countries. According to the UNFCCC secretariat, the cost for the developing world as a whole could reach between €23-54 billion per year by 2030.

To ensure a sufficient level of ambition, the EU proposes to explore establishing a coordination instrument at international level which, based on a technical assessment, would match up the actions proposed by developing countries under their strategies with the appropriate international support.

The aim would be to achieve the maximum reduction of emissions possible from the support provided. Developing country actions should be entered in an international registry which would show the benefits in terms of emissions mitigation.

The EU has proposed that the Copenhagen agreement provide a Framework for Action on Adaptation to reinforce international partnership and solidarity, improve tools such as monitoring and forecasting, and promote effective action. Multilateral insurance options to cover disaster losses should be explored to complement existing funding mechanisms in the event of climate-related natural disasters. The European Commission is already involved in piloting such a scheme for African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) developing countries.

New developments in science, technology, and the socio-economic conditions in each country mean that the strategies and their implementation will need to be reviewed regularly. The strategies should be updated by 2012 at the latest to ensure they are contributing to the 2°C objective.

Adaptation support is especially necessary for the least developed countries, small island developing states and African countries which are prone to drought, desertification and floods.

The European Union is providing such support through channels such as the UNFCCC’s Nairobi Work Programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, the UN’s climate funds, bilateral development cooperation,and the Global Climate Change Alliance.

In the medium to longer term, as they reach a level of development similar to that of industrialised countries, advanced developing nations should take on binding emission reduction commitments. These should be tailored to their emission levels and their own technical and financial capacities to limit and reduce emissions.

Adapting to inevitable climate change Adaptation to climate change must be comprehensively addressed in the post-2012 agreement. Climate change is already under way, and keeping global warming below 2°C will not be enough to prevent negative impacts.

Adaptation is a global challenge but many developing countries are particularly vulnerable. The Kyoto Protocol’s Adaptation Fund can help to pay

Building a global carbon market To support the post-2012 agreement a global carbon market needs to be built. This can be achieved by linking up comparable domestic emission trading systems like the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS).

Such ‘cap-and-trade’ systems are being developed in an increasing number of developed countries and will be a key tool in enabling them to meet future emission commitments cost-effectively.

Putting a value on carbon is the most efficient and cost-effective way of re-

ducing emissions: estimates show that emissions trading systems can reduce the cost of mitigation by as much as 75%. Auction revenues from cap-andtrade systems can also raise funds to finance mitigation and adaptation in developed and developing countries alike. The EU member states have agreed that half of the revenues from the auctioning of EU ETS allowances from 2013 onwards should be spent on mitigation and adaptation, in Europe and beyond.

The EU’s vision is to link up comparable cap-and-trade schemes in developed countries as soon as possible, and by 2015 at the latest, to create an OECDwide carbon market. This should then be extended to include the major emitting sectors in the economically more advanced developing countries by around 2020. The possibility that a US emissions trading system may be in place by around 2012 opens up the prospect of building a transatlantic carbon market that could become the engine room of the global market.

The development and linking up of domestic trading systems should remain under the control of governments and should not come within the scope of the UN negotiations.

Reform of UN offset mechanisms In the transition towards a global carbon market, the Kyoto Protocol’s emissions offset mechanisms continue to have a strong role to play, but they need to be reformed The Joint Implementation mechanism (JI) enables developed countries to invest in emission-saving projects in other industrialised countries and to use the emission credits generated by the projects to help meet their own emission targets. The effectiveness and efficiency of JI needs to be improved, however. Reforms should include guaranteeing its environmental integrity and opening it to new participants. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) works in the same way as JI, except that the emission-saving projects are carried out in developing 29

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countries. The CDM has enabled developing countries to participate in the international carbon market and is generating considerable flows of capital and technology that are helping to promote low-carbon growth in these countries. However the CDM, too, now requires reform to strengthen it. The environmental integrity of the CDM needs to be strengthened, notably by making sure that only projects which go beyond the lowest-cost options and deliver emission reductions that are genuinely additional to ‘business as usual’ are able to generate credits.

Furthermore, the participation in the CDM of developing countries, particularly the least developed countries, needs to be broadened and the mechanism’s governance improved.

The EU ETS accepts credits from most types of JI and CDM projects as equivalent to European emission allowances, thus promoting investment in such projects, and this will continue after 2012.

Sectoral crediting and trading in developing countries An increasing proportion of global emissions mitigation efforts will be needed in developing countries. The EU is therefore proposing the creation of new sector-specific mechanisms to enable developing countries to strengthen their contribution to global mitigation efforts and to expand their access to carbon markets by tapping into increased demand from developed countries for emission credits post-2012 As a first step, for highly competitive sectors in the more advanced developing countries the CDM should be phased out and replaced by a sectoral carbon crediting mechanism under UN auspices that would cover entire national sectors rather than merely single projects as the CDM does.

Emission credits would be generated when the sector bettered a pre-defined emission standard. This standard could vary according to the circumstances of different host countries.

Such a crediting mechanism can be ef-

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ficient in driving the development and deployment of low-carbon technologies in developing countries and should be taken up as part of their low-carbon development strategies. Estimates suggest sectoral crediting could generate as much as one-third or more of the extra investment in mitigation developing countries will need.

While widening and deepening the major emerging economies’ participation in the carbon market, sectoral crediting would also be a stepping stone towards the development of sectoral emissions trading systems in developing countries. Such company-level cap-and-trade systems in advanced industrial sectors will be the most cost-effective approach for those developing countries that have the capacity to monitor emissions and ensure compliance.

The idea would be to link such systems to those in developed countries, such as the EU ETS. Targets in each sector would be tightened gradually, bringing them progressively into line with those applied in the same sectors in developed countries.

The EU is offering capacity-building support to help developing countries set up emission trading systems.

Finance, technology and capacity building to support a global deal The European Union and the rest of the industrialised world have a responsibility to support developing countries in combating and adapting to climate change. The EU is doing so in many ways, notably through overseas development assistance from Member States and the European Commission, the purchase of Clean Development Mechanism credits by EU companies and governments, EU contributions to multilateral climate funds, and the creation of innovative funding mechanisms such as the EU’s Global Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fund (GEEREF).

A comprehensive post-2012 agreement must be underpinned by adequate financial resources to support its implementation, and it is clear that

financial, technical and capacity-building assistance to developing countries from the developed world will need to be substantially scaled up.

Analysis undertaken for the European Commission indicates that the additional global investment needed to reduce world emissions to a level compatible with the 2°C objective will amount to around €175 billion a year by 2020, more than half of which will be needed in developing countries.

EU leaders have pledged that the European Union will provide its fair share of the additional support required. Potential private and public sources of funding include the use of grants and loans through international, bilateral and multilateral channels; the introduction of innovative international public funding sources; and the international carbon market.

The EU proposes that developing countries should identify their external financing and technology needs in their low-carbon development strategies. Following a technical assessment, these needs would be matched up with the appropriate international support through a coordination instrument established at international level Specific financial support will be needed for the forest sector to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The European Commission has proposed the creation of an international finance mechanism through which developing countries would be rewarded on the basis of their performance in reducing these emissions.

The post-2012 global financial architecture will need to be efficient, transparent, accountable and fair.

Countries’ financial contributions should be comparable and be based on their emission levels and relative wealth. They should be negotiated as part of the Copenhagen agreement.

As the sources of funding for mitigation and adaptation will be multiple, international coordination and cooperation will need to be improved. International climate finance governance

Global Warming arrangements should be reviewed.

The European Commission has suggested setting up a high-level forum on international climate finance that would bring together key decision makers from the public and private sectors and international financial institutions. The forum should regularly review the availability and expenditure of funding and recommend improvements when needed.

Boosting research and development of climate technologies Global research, development and demonstration (RD&D) of low-carbon technologies to reduce emissions as well as of technologies to support adaptation to climate change needs a major boost.

Provisions on such funding should form an integral part of the Copenhagen deal, with the aim of doubling worldwide energy-related RD&D spending from current levels by 2012 and quadrupling it by 2020. Industrialised countries need to make a substantial investment, on top of traditional overseas development aid spending.

In developing countries a range of barriers - including lack of policies, information and capacities - hampers the development, transfer and deployment of technologies for adaptation and mitigation. Establishing national and regional centres of technological excellence is one way to create the necessary enabling environment and promote the development and transfer of technology, stimulate capacity-building and improve access to information.

Cooperation between developed and developing countries on RD&D is essential to achieving common technology technology goals, and the EU is committed to working with developing countries to explore how joint research efforts can be taken forward as part of the Copenhagen agreement.

INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION, FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/ campaign/control

Statement by EU leaders on post-2012 action EU heads of state and government set out the EU’s position on post-2012 global action to combat climate change at their European Council meeting in March 2007. The following are key extracts from their summit statement: "The European Council underlines the vital importance of achieving the strategic objective of limiting the global average temperature increase to not more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

The European Council underlines the leading role of the EU in international climate protection. It stresses that international collective action will be critical in driving an effective, efficient and equitable response on the scale required to face climate change challenges. To this end, negotiations on a global and comprehensive post-2012 agreement, which should build upon and broaden the Kyoto Protocol architecture and provide a fair and flexible framework for the widest possible participation, need to be launched at the UN international climate conference… at the end of 2007 and completed by 2009.

The European Council reaffirms that absolute emission reductions are the backbone of a global carbon market. Developed countries should continue to take the lead by committing to collectively reducing their emissions of greenhouse gases in the order of 30% by 2020 compared to 1990.

In this context, the European Council endorses an EU objective of a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 as its contribution to a global and comprehensive agreement for the period beyond 2012, provided that other developed countries commit themselves to comparable emission reductions and economically more advanced developing countries to contributing adequately according to their responsibilities and respective capabilities. It invites these countries to come forward with proposals for their contributions to the post-2012 agreement.

The European Council emphasises that the EU is committed to transforming Europe into a highly energy-efficient and low greenhouse-gas-emitting economy and decides that, until a global and comprehensive post-2012 agreement is concluded, and without prejudice to its position in international negotiations, the EU makes a firm commitment to achieve at least a 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared to 1990.

The European Council notes the increasing share of greenhouse gas emissions from developing countries and the need for these countries to address the increase in these emissions by reducing the emission intensity of their economic development, in line with the general principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.

The European Council stands ready to continue and further strengthen its support for developing countries in lessening their vulnerability and adapting to climate change."

GEEREF GEEREF, the Global Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fund, is an innovative global risk capital fund set €300 mnd it is expected that other EU Member States will also do so.

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By Stephan FARIS

CLIMATE CHANGE: AFFECTING OUR DAILY LIVES Climate change is about much more than the environment. A modest rise in global temperatures can have the power to set off dramatic changes.

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y interest in climate change came about in an unusual way. For most of the last decade, I had been paying peripheral attention to the warming of the world. It was interesting to read about ice caps, polar bears and greenhouse gases. But as a reporter specializing in the developing world, I didn’t see a connection with myself or my work.

Then I visited the refugee camps just outside of Darfur. It was 2004, and I was on assignment with Time Magazine to cover the beginnings of a conflict the U.S. State Department would call genocide. The stories the refugees told me – of torture, rape, murder – were threaded through with a common theme: the land envy of their attackers.

Even then it was clear to me that the conflict had environmental roots. The schism on which the combatants broke

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had its origins in the long drought that gripped the area in the 1970s and 1980s, when the degradation of the region sparked fighting between farmers and nomadic herders.

But it was only later, while researching an article for The Atlantic magazine on the subject that I discovered that climate scientists had traced the drying of Darfur to warming in the tropical and southern oceans. The same temperature pattern that some were saying was contributing to strong hurricanes off the Gulf Coast of the United States had dis-

Global Warming

rupted the African monsoons with terrible consequences. I started to pay more attention to global warming. If the emissions from our cars, factories and power plants had contributed to the violence in Darfur, what else were they responsible for?

Last summer, the international community officially conceded the fight

against climate change. When the planet’s most powerful economies met in Italy for the meeting of the G-8, they agreed to accept 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (20ºC) of warming, far more than we’ve every experienced as a civilization. As negotiations ramp up ahead of an effort to hammer out a successor to the Kyoto treaty in Copenhagen later this year, talk is

we’re exchanging the world on which we’ve built our civilization for one in which things will not only be different, but much less predictable.

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WORLD ENVIRONMENT

Affecting our daily lives

climate scientists had traced the drying of Darfur to warming in the tropical and southern oceans.

The same temperature pattern that some were saying was contributing to strong hurricanes off the Gulf Coast of the United States had disrupted the African monsoons with terrible consequences.

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starting to switch from how to stop climate change to how to minimize it.

Global warming is happening. What I’ve tried to do is understand how it’s playing out.

lives. Even a modest rise in global temperatures, of the kind we can expect in the coming decades, can have the power to set off dramatic changes with surprising implications.

In the time I’ve spent researching its impacts, I’ve discovered that climate change is about much more than the environment. It will directly affect our

If mild fluctuations in the global climate were enough to set off tragedy in Darfur, what other regions could be similarly vulnerable? The conflict in

Darfur has already spilled over into Chad and the Central African Republic.

Are there other areas we should be worried about? If the conflicts roots are ecological, what are the implications when crafting a solution to the problem? The negotiations for peace have revolved around the idea of allowing people to go back to their home, putting things as much as possible back as they

Global Warming mulation of greenhouse gases is changing the taste of fine wine.

This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. After all, the primary factors in the way wine tastes are variety of the grape, the soil in which it’s growing and the climate in which it grows. Generally, warmer weather means faster ripening, and the art of winemaking lies in controlling the conditions so that the grapes reach maturity at just the right moment.

Of course, climate is the only one of those factors that changes over the course of a year. Thus the difference between a prime vintage and one that’s only mediocre doesn’t lie often in the variety or the soil. Unless something really dramatic has happened, the difference depends on the weather that year.

According to Gregory Jones, a climatologist at Southern Oregon University, climate change so far has actually made wine better. After examining wine-growing regions from around the world he concluded that most had warmed in the second half of the last century, and the vintages being produced were improving. A rise in temperatures of one degree Celsius generally boosted ratings by about 13 points on a 100 point scale.

But when Jones used his data to estimate the best temperature for a given region, he found that by the 1990s, most had warmed so that the quality of wine being produced was either at —or past— its peak. As the world warms, growers will begin to find their grapes are ripening too early. were. But what if one cause of the conflict is that there simply is no longer enough land to go around?

the luxury of being good Samaritans, choosing whether or not to be involved. We’re already involved.

The final implication is a moral one. If the violence in Darfur was to some extent caused by the emissions from our cars, our factories and our power plants, then we bear some responsibility for the dying. We no longer have

It’s worth spending a moment trying to understand just how the impacts of climate change will play out. One subject I’ve explored may seem trivial at first, but it provides lessons on how global warming will make itself felt. The accu-

So what’s going to happen? At first growers will try to adapt. They’ll change the way their vines are trellised. Perhaps they will start planting on the cooler parts of their properties.

They’ll tinker with the wines, remove sugars. But eventually, what they’re doing won’t work anymore. Things will have to change. Some growers might try putting in new grapes, varieties

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WORLD ENVIRONMENT

Affecting our daily lives

that do better in warmer climates. But others —say Cabernet growers who really want to grow Cabernet— will have to look elsewhere, move north or uphill, in search of the climate they once had.

Jones has speculated that within 50 years, the best place to grow Chianti, which is a Tuscan wine from Italy, will be in Germany. The best Champagne could come from southern England.

If only it were so easy. Infrastructure, property rights, marketing—winegrowers have built their businesses on where the way grapes are being grown now. Were starting from scratch it might not make a difference whether Chianti grapes grew best in Tuscany or Bavaria. But we’re not. In a few decades, England might produce an exquisite sparking wine, but what’s the land there being used for now?

The wine industry is just one example —and to most people a fairly trivial one— of a part of our lives that will have to change. But its plight highlights the fact that we’re adapted to the world we’re living in now. Climate change will be moving us away from that.

Nor will the changes always be so predictable. In Nigeria in 2002, I caught malaria twice. I cured it early both times, before it had time to gather strength. But it knocked me down. Walking to the clinic for a blood sample during the second attack, I vomited on the road. That night I shivered on my friend’s couch. My bones ran cold. My shirt changed color with sweat. I lost two days before I was ready to work again.

A mosquito larva matures more rapidly when the water in which it grows is warm. Female mosquitoes digest blood faster and bite more frequently when the mercury rises. Malaria transmission begins when a mosquito bites an infected person. Once inside the mosquitos’ guts, the parasite splits into male and female and reproduce, sending their offspring into the mosquitos’ salivary glands, ready to be injected when the mosquito bites again.

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The biggest challenge, from the point of view of parasite, is that the malaria mosquito only lives a few weeks. The parasite’s survival depends on it being able to reproduce while its host is still alive to bite. The strain of malaria I caught is called Plasmodium Falciparum. In temperatures of 68 degrees Fahrenheit, the parasite takes 26 days to complete its cycle. At 77 degrees, it’s ready after just 13 days.

But the simple relation between temperature and transmission masks a more complex picture. After all, in areas such as Florida or Italy that were once malarial, the parasite has been beaten back through mosquito control and the implementation of simple infrastructure like screen windows and air conditioners. If malaria and other tropical diseases spread gently north, similar measure will often be able to contain them. What’s more worrying is what we can’t predict.

In the summer of 2007, residents of a small town in northern Italy named Castiglione di Cervia, came down with unusual symptoms: fevers, rashes, crushing pains in their joints and bones. It turned out that an Italian tourist had visited India and contracted a tropical disease called chikungunya, and then he brought it back. In a normal year, the epidemic would most likely have ended with him. He would have recovered and that would have been it. But the previous winter had been unusually mild, allowing a mosquito called the Asian tiger mosquito to breed early and in large numbers. So instead, when the Italian tourist returned with the virus, he was introducing it to an area that was literally swarming with carriers.

That summer, 100 of the town’s 2000 villagers came down with the virus.

World Health Officials have speculated that it was the first outbreak of a tropical disease in Europe caused by climate change.

Health care is again just one example, but it illustrates a larger worry. Health officials rely on past experience when

deciding how to allocate their resources. As global warming churns the world’s weather, our systems will come under stress from unexpected directions, and that’s what’s going to be hardest to handle.

In short, we’re exchanging the world on which we’ve built our civilization for one in which things will not only be different, but much less predictable. Yet to some extent, the impacts discussed in this article are an exercise in optimism.

In its history, the Earth has undergone wild swings in its climate, with ice sheets extending over much of Europe and North America. But for the past 10,000 years, a time period that correlates nicely with the entire history of our civilization, temperatures have been remarkably stable. We haven’t experienced temperature swings of more than about a half a degree Celsius.

The two degrees of warming agreed to by the major economies last summer in Italy is four times what we’ve experienced as a civilization, enough to bring about all the disruptions discussed here. Yet that same amount of warming could also be the threshold that some worry might be the point of no return, beyond which the Earth starts to undergo changes that perpetuate the thermometer’s climb.

Warm soils decompose faster, releasing carbon dioxide and methane. Hotter oceans absorb less. Melting permafrost unleashes millennia’s worth of methane trapped in frozen bogs. At the North Pole, white ice is already giving way to black water and the seas are absorbing more sunlight.

Should these feedback effects start to build, we would be committing ourselves to a dramatically different world one as far removed from the conditions we know today as we are from a planet where ice covered much of the northern hemisphere.

Stephan Faris is the author of: “Forecast the Surprising - and Immediate Consequences of Climate Change.”

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By Federico NIGLIA

THE NEGOTIATIONS FOR A GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENT AND THE ROLE OF THE G8/G20 CONTINUUM

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he United Nations Conference on Climate Change will take place in Copenhagen from the 7th till the 18th of December 2009. In 2012 the Kyoto protocol to prevent climate change and global warming will run out and the conference is expected to produce a new emission treaty that should guarantee compromise between developed and developing world.

The scenarios concerning the negotiations outcome are contradictory: international public opinions have very high 38

expectations for the Copenhagen conference, and the main reason is due to the changes that occurred in the US administration. While for eight years George Bush maintained an ideologically based hostile attitude against environmental issues, a major turn has been taken by the Obama administration. The former senator of Illinois campaigned on a promise to support a green economy and when the crisis broke out he took the initiative for a green revolution. Also among the other global key players a more pro-active attitude towards the environmental issue is rising: last November the European Union passed a Strategic Energy Review pushing for a system less dependent from fossil fuels. There are also signals of the European willingness to go beyond existing commitments: for instance the French president Nicolas Sarkozy

Global Warming has stressed the need for a new path of sustainable growth. Even China has apparently taken a more cooperative attitude and in recent declarations the Chinese government has stressed the willingness to address climate change and environmental problems while maintaining economic growth in a more balanced framework.

On the other hand the preliminary negotiations for Copenhagen show the existence of huge problems: the result of the three meetings held in Bonn in April, June and August was not particularly satisfactory and there are low expectations at the moment for the next two sessions of negotiations that will take place in Bangkok and Barcelona. Bonn talks reproduced the traditional division between developed and developing world: the former have carried on with the old-fashioned rhetoric concerning the historical responsibility of the latter for climate change. Concretely, disagreement has risen on the party’s contribution to emissions reduction: developing countries have called the developed world to raise their cuts to 40% of their emissions on the 1990 base.

In the developed world, the European Union under the Swedish presidency has made at the moment the most ambitious proposal: the EU will raise its cuts from 20% to 30% in case of a comparable commitment by the other industrialized countries. So now much will depend on the United States. The White House is pressing on the Congress to pass the American Clean Energy and Security (Aces) Act, a bill establishing a capand-trade plan for greenhouse gases to address climate change. In the United States, however, the principle of cap and trade and more general the principle of emission trade is not much loved. It was approved by the House of Representatives in June but Senate is a harder place. As argued by many ob-

servers in the Senate it is not a problem of partisans, it is a regional problem: even democratic senators, especially from the Midwest, where production still relies on coal, are not well disposed to pass a bill that could lead to important changes in the communities they belong to. So, the UN conference is probably coming too early for Obama: if the domestic regime would have not been approved rapidly by the Congress the government would probably be unfit to negotiate a huge deal in Copenhagen.

As correctly argued by Michael Levi in the September issue of Foreign Affairs, it will be hard to agree on a comprehensive treaty in Copenhagen and the task could even remain hard in 2010.

Though it will be difficult to reach consensus in the next months, it will be important to maintain an open dialogue between the key actors of the process. The United States has a specific interest in negotiating this issue with developing countries, especially with China and India, as well as with the European Union. Even if on these issues the European Union and the United States move from different paths there is room for a new convergence in the transatlantic dimension.

Given the difficulty to reach consensus in the UN system, the G8/G20 continuum could contribute to maintain the attention focused on energetic and en-

vironmental issues. Strong arguments concerning the membership and capacity of the G-continuum support this statement. First the membership of these summits makes them fit to deal with the issue: the G20 includes the biggest economic actors in the world and also the G8 has an institutional dialogue with the main emerging economies (China, India, Mexico, India, and South Africa). Secondly, the G8 has the capacity to afford the security implication of energy and environmental problems, foster solution that could sound more in the global context. From the point of view of competence it should be remembered that since the Gleneagles summit of 2005 a "Dialogue on Climate Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development" was launched. Moreover, the International Energy Agency is working on scenarios and solutions for balancing economic growth and environmental standards: the IEA was also invited by the Italian government to the G8 energy ministerial meeting last May and presented two important documents on the impact of the crisis on energy investments and a paper on climate policy. A last argument in favour of G8 competence is in its capacity to put the energy and environmental issues in connection with security and development problems. A growing number of members of the G8 are pressing for a stable environmental commitment in the G8: not only the European Union, but also Canada, which will host the summit in 2010, and Australia which is campaigning in order to foster more effective policies. Of course the G8/G20 continuum remains an informal committee that has no direct mandatory power.

Nevertheless, it could help the leading economies to reach a compromise that could be presented to the international community.

Federico Niglia is a Senior Research Fellow at the Instituto Affari Internazionali (Rome) 39

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By Corrado CLINI

THE OBAMA PLAN FOR CLEAN ENERGY:

A CHALLENGE AND A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR EUROPE T he "stimulus plan" to boost the U.S. economy proposed by President-elect Obama is strongly focused on policies for the development of clean energy, it provides a well-structured program in terms of targets and financial intervention in order to support the U.S. energy transition towards a low carbon economy.

Taking from the election promises and recent statements of the President-elect, these objectives are: 10% of US energy from renewable sources by 2012 and 25% by 2025 in final Energy consumption (Renewable Portfolio Standard);

Build a new electricity infrastructure dedicated to electricity transport from renewable sources (Smart grid); 40

Develop and diffuse "clean carbon" and carbon capture and sequestration technologies, through the recovery of the Future Gen Project;

Develop sustainable and responsible national production of oil and natural gas, with priority for the construction of the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline;

Renew and promote the use of nuclear energy according to practices for the informed participation of populations and a secure management of radioactive waste;

Cut oil consumption by the amount of current import from Venezuela and the Middle East within the next 10 years;

Global Warming

Fix a standard for carbon content in fuel (low carbon fuel standard), in order to reduce by 1% per year carbon levels in fuels between 2010 and 2020; Increase of the amount of bioethanol used for transport to 60 billion gallons in 2030, and simultaneous promotion of research and development for second-generation biofuels (cellulosic bioethanol);

Require all federal vehicles to be powered by a 85% bioethanol and 15% gasoline (flex fuel);

Oblige all car manufacturers in the U.S. to produce flex fuel vehicles starting in 2013;

Increase energy efficiency in public buildings by 25% within by in existing buildings and 40% in new buildings. By 2025 public buildings should be zero emission;

Eliminate incandescent light bulbs by 2014.

Under the Obama Plan, funding for the objectives will derive from the following sources:

$ 15 billion investment per year for 10 years for the development and dissemination of "clean energy".

Increase efficiency in the entire

Creation of a private and indepen-

private building sector (+ 25% for existing buildings and + 50% for new buildings within 10 years). By 2025 public buildings should be zero emission;

dent "Clean Technologies Deployment Venture Capital Fund", with at least $ 10 billion for research and development in alternative technolo- 41

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The Obama plan for clean energy

gies, which should work in synergy with the programs and public laboratories to which at least additional $ 6 billion will be allocated, doubling the current budget;

sions for industrial enterprises and the simultaneous establishment of a "cap and trade" system similar to the ‘Emissions Trading Scheme "of the EU; Creation of incentives for businesses and consumers in the areas of renewables, biofuels, and low-emission cars.

The Obama Plan represents a challenge and a great opportunity for Europe. It is a challenge because the plan seeks to create programs and regulations in the U.S. domestic financial market, to be supported with a strong financial commitment and with a temporal target between 2025 and 2050, allowing for wide ranging policies and investments.

In particular, both generous tax incentives for the modernization of auto production and the establishment of a new incentive for the purchase of lowemission and low-energy consumption (hybrid and flex-fuel) vehicles, amounting on average to $ 7000;

The U.S. does not have to struggle with the short term obligations of the Kyoto Protocol, which allows greater potential for success and profitability for investments in the development of new technologies in the medium and long term.

Extension of the "Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program" to aid families with the additional costs arising from the energy transition.

Moreover, the extent of the plan and its effects on the involved market sectors suggest that the U.S. could quickly take on world leadership in the development of advanced solutions for energy technologies and in the production of vehicles with lowemission and alternative energy vehicles.

Limits on carbon dioxide emis-

The package of controls and objectives is expected to generate at least 5 million new jobs representing the first concrete, large-scale demonstration of the convergence between environmental protection and economic growth. Moreover, the Obama plan intends to stimulate a vast CO2 reduction in the U.S., seeking to reduce emissions by 80% with respect of 1990s levels by 2050.

The plan represents a practical application of guidelines from the report "Prospects for Energy Technologies," delivered last July at the G8 +5 Summit by the International Energy Agency.

The report identified key technologies that should be developed and estimated that in the next 30 years investments for at least $ 45,000 billion will be necessary to increase energy efficiency in all sectors, to

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foster renewable resources, to develop new low carbon resources, to realize carbon capture and storage technologies.

Considering the recent cooperation between China and Brazil on emission reduction, a partnership between Brazil, China and USA could represent in the future the axis of reference for the "decarbonization" of world economy.

This could leave the European Union in a marginal position, because though the recently approved "climate energy package" offers many indications on the "institutional architecture" of the European system for reducing emis-

sions, it gives only few preliminary options for financial mechanisms and the required investment.

It is a great opportunity because the Obama offers European institutions a chance both to get out of the "cul de sac" of the unilateral EU approach on climate change and to open a new partnership with the U.S. for the development of technological and financial solutions, instead of prolonging the exhausting discussions of how to agree on the rules. The EU should support – through appropriate incentives – joint programs between European and U.S. enterprises for the development of new low carbon technologies, and could even compete with the U.S. regarding the ChinaBrazil partnership.

To open up to the Obama plan, the EU has to immediately use the revision clause in the "climate energy package" to identify and insert into it incentives for enterprises, thereby improving the possibility of partnerships with the U.S. and to "freeze" all the procedures that on the other side would prevent Europe from taking advantage of the opportunities offered by this new situation, starting from those referring to observation of the commitments made within the framework of Kyoto Protocol, which set up for an inevitable diversion of resources from investments in new technologies.

In this new context, the G8+5 presidency allows Italy a great opportunity, especially considering that during his election campaign President Obama proposed the institution of a Global Forum composed by the G8 Countries and the 5 major emerging economies Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa.

Courtesy of Anthill magazine Corrado Clini is a Senior Research Fellow at Harvard’s Center for International Development and Associate at the Harvard University Center for the Environment. He is Director General of Italy’s Ministry for the Environment Land and Sea and Chairman of the Global Bioenergy Partnership launched at the G8 Gleneagles Summit.

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LESS TALK, MORE ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE,

YOUNG PEOPLE URGE WORLD LEADERS

Children & youth visiting the Munji Middle School.

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oung people from around the globe gathered in Dajeon (Republic of Korea) and called on world leaders to take radical measures against climate change.

At the largest-ever truly global youth gathering on climate change, some 700 young people, ranging from 10 to 24 years of age, honed in on their governments' track record in addressing climate change, emphasizing the need for strong vision and leadership.

In a statement, the young delegates representing three billion of the

world's population expressed their "concern and frustration that their governments are not doing enough to combat climate change", adding that "we now need more actions and less talking".

The declaration was finalized and adopted by the young participants at the Tunza Children and Youth Conference in Daejeon (Republic of Korea), as part of the global UN-wide 'Seal the Deal!' campaign spearheaded by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to galvanize political will and public support for a comprehensive global climate agreement.

"It is very important to include the voice of children and youth in every environmental decision. It is our request to all politicians that they please take this statement into consideration in Copenhagen," said 13-year-old Yugratna Srivastava from India.

The children and youth also addressed the citizens of the planet and urged them to push their governments to create a global green economy.

Other recommendations included a call to pressure businesses, producers and governments to promote environmentally friendly products and eco-labeling policies.

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Less Talk, More Action

ABOUT TUNZA The Tunza Youth Strategy, adopted in February this year by UNEP's Governing Council, is a long-term strategy to engage young people in environmental activities and in the work of UNEP. The word 'Tunza' means 'to treat with care or affection' in Kiswahili.

The Tunza initiative aims to develop activities in the areas of environmental awareness and information exchange on the environment for children and youth.

The Tunza Youth and Children's Conference on the Environment in Daejeon (Republic of Korea) on 17-23 August 2009 is the largest-ever gathering of young people on climate change.

The Tunza International Youth Conference was organized by UNEP with the support of the UNEP National Committee for Korea, the Daejeon Metropolitan Government, and Tunza global programme partner, Bayer AG, as well as UNICEF, UNFPA, FAO, WMO, the World Organization of the Scout Movement, the World Association of Girl Guides and Girl Scouts and 350.org. Other private sector sponsors include Hyundai-Kia Automotive group and Samsung Engineering. Nickelodeon TV Asia is the media partner for the event.

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"We are the generation of tomorrow.

The decisions that are made today will define our future and the world we have to live in. So we young people of the world urge governments to commit to a strong post-Kyoto climate regime. It is our lives we are talking about," said youth delegate, 23-year-old Anne Walraven from the Netherlands.

tember in New York City. "This global Youth and Children gathering under the Seal the Deal! Campaign is the largest international gathering of young people this year advocating for climate change action. Their voices will and must be heard because they will inherit the outcomes of our actions," said United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

The statement is the culmination of eight-week-long discussions between young people across the planet using the power of the worldwide web. It was finalized at a Global Town Hall on 20 August in Daejeon, where the 600 participants were joined by over 200 young people in 15 cities around the world including Cuernavaca (Mexico), Nairobi (Kenya), Canberra (Australia), Bangkok (Thailand), Vancouver (Canada) and Athens (Greece), among others.

The children and youth are asking governments around the world to: Agree on a more fair, just and

The Climate Change Statement, entitled 'Listen to Our Voices: The Future Needs Strong Vision and Leadership', comes just four months before the critical climate talks that will take place in Copenhagen in December this year, and just four weeks ahead of the High-Level Summit on Climate Change convened by the UN Secretary-General at the end of Sep-

action oriented post-Kyoto agreement adopted and implemented by all countries Have strict laws and enforcement against those who pollute and degrade the environment, coupled with education and incentives to protect the environment Develop and implement clearly defined carbon action plans and climate response strategies, which can be monitored and reviewed by an independent multi-national climate facility Transition toward a green economy based on renewable energies and offer more incentives for people to buy affordable energy efficient products Reduce the number of vehicles and traffic density on our roads, including

Global Warming News from the Campaign

SEAL THE DEAL 2009 could be a turning point in history for our planet. What happens over the course of the next few months could change the lives of people everywhere, as governments meet in Copenhagen in December to work out a new climate deal.

The UN is urging you to help our planet both practically and symbolically.

improved and affordable public and pedestrian transport systems Make engaging environmental education mandatory in schools and universities and promote community environmental awareness - an informed public is a powerful public Pay attention to the conflicts that have developed throughout the world and the negative impact it has had on the environment and develop conflict resolution strategies Make it mandatory to include carbon and ecological footprint information in products Implement green energy and industry, including sustainable food production Support youth efforts to make a change in the world The young delegates at the conference pledged they would soon stage large rallies across 100 capitals to urge global leaders to take action on climate change under the banner of the Seal the Deal! campaign.

"In many ways this process of coming to an agreement on this final text mirrors what will take place in December in Copenhagen. This statement is the fruit of a diversity of views and voices from young people of different ages and cultures.

We very much hope the spirit set by these young people will be reflected in the negotiations that will take place in December," said Achim Steiner, Under SecretaryGeneral and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme.

All the worlds leaders, from President Barack Obama to Chinese premier Wen Jia Bao will over the coming days receive a personal letter from representatives of the globe's three billion young people urging them to Seal a meaningful Deal on climate change in just over 100 days time.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia were on the delegates' mailing list, along with leaders in countries like Zimbabwe, Colombia, Venezuela, Lebanon, Haiti, Pakistan, Georgia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Mongolia, Japan and Germany.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE TUNZA CONFERENCE, PLEASE VISIT: http://www.unep.org/tunza/Downloads/ tabid/870/language/en-US/Default.aspx

This is a call to all the tree planters of the world to plant a tree to support Seal the Deal! to tackle our climate crisis, and also contribute to the Billion Tree Campaign.

When you plant a tree, you help reduce the impacts of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the cutting down of forests is now contributing close to 20 per cent of the overall greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere. Forest degradation also makes a significant contribution to emissions from forest ecosystems .

The Billion Tree campaign participants are invited to support these critical initiatives by engaging in a major tree planting drive during Global Climate Week from 21-25 September 2009.

You can lodge your tree-planting pledges online and show solidarity for a united response to climate change calling for a fair, balanced and effective climate agreement by signing the petition at: www.sealthedeal2009.org 45

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Global Warming

ACT AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE Climate change is a global problem, and yet each one of us has the power to make a difference. Even small changes in our daily behavior can help prevent greenhouse gas emissions without affecting our quality of life.

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how your readiness to act against climate change:

Plant a tree Around nine billion tones of CO2 are absorbed by trees every year, but nearly two billion tones are released through deforestation. By planting more trees, we can demonstrate our commitment to balance of the Earth's climate and can make our own surroundings a little bit greener!

Plant a tree. One tree of average size absorbs about 6kg of CO2 per year, so over 40 years it soaks up about 250kg of CO2.

When buying garden furniture or other wooden products, try to make sure the wood comes from a sustainable forest management source and operation. Products carrying the FSC or PEFC labels meet these requirements. Unsustainable forest practices contribute to deforestation, which is responsible for around 20% of global CO2 emissions. It usually involves burning down the forests, which causes CO2 emissions, and eliminates their capacity to absorb CO2.

Turn down By taking small steps, you can contribute to the global climate change effort and save money on your energy and heating bills! Learn how easy it is with these simple tips.

Turn down the heat. Reducing the temperature by just 1°C can cut 5-10% off your family's energy bill and avoid up to 300kg of CO2 emissions per household and year.

Program your thermostat so that at night or while you are out of the house, the temperature is set low and by the time you wake up or return home, the temperature is comfortable again. This can reduce your heating bill by 7-15%.

Replace your old single-glazed windows with double-glazing. This requires a bit of upfront investment, but will halve the energy lost through windows and pay off in the long term. If you go for the best the market has to offer (wooden-framed double-glazed units with low-emission glass and fil-

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led with argon gas), you can even save more than 70% of the energy lost.

Don't let heat escape from your house over a long period. When airing your house, open the windows for only a few minutes. If you leave a small opening all day long, the energy needed to keep it warm inside during six cold months (10°C or less outside temperature) would result in almost 1 tone of CO2 emissions.

Install good home insulation, one of the most effective ways to reduce CO2 emissions and to save energy in the long term. Heat loss through walls, roof and floor commonly accounts for over 50% of overall space heat loss.

Insulate your hot water tanks, the pipes of your central heating as well as your wall cavities and fit aluminium foil behind your radiators.

Move your fridge and freezer - placing them next to the cooker or boiler consumes much more energy than if they were standing on their own. For example, if you put them in a hot cellar room where the room temperature is 30-35°C, energy use is almost double and causes an extra 160kg of CO2 emissions for fridges per year and 320kg for freezers.

Reducing the temperature by just 1°C can cut 5-10% off your family's energy bill and avoid up to 300kg of CO2 emissions per household and year.

Defrost old fridges and freezers regularly. Even better is to replace them with newer models, which all have automatic defrost cycles and are generally up to two times more energy-efficient than their predecessors. When buying new appliances (not only fridges, but also washing machines, dishwashers, etc.), choose those with the European Grade A+ label, meaning that it's very efficient but also compare the energy consumption among A+ graded appliances since it can vary.

Be careful which settings you use if you set your fridge on its coolest setting, you will not only consume more energy; your food will not keep fresh as long since it might be spoilt through freezing.

Avoid putting hot or warm food in the fridge. You save energy by letting it cool down first before placing it in the fridge.

Check if your water's too hot. Your cylinder thermostat doesn't need to be set higher than 60°C. The same goes for the boiler of your central heating. Remember, 70% of the energy used by households in the EU is spent on heating homes and another 14% on heating water.

Human activity generates six giga tones of carbon dioxide per year, while the Earth can recycle only three giga tones. The rest accumulates each year in the atmosphere, thus reinforcing the greenhouse effect. Remember to save energy!

Fill up that freezer! Help it consume less energy by keeping it full. It requires less energy to cool a full freezer than an empty one. Should you not have filled it, add some plastic bottles filled with water or even old newspapers until you need the space!

Clean the dusty coils behind your refrigerator to help disperse the heat to increase the energy efficiency of the refrigerator. Dusty coils can waste as much as 30 % extra electricity!

The recommended temperature for a refrigerator is between 1 – 4 °C and for the freezer it should be set at -18 °C. Each degree below these temperatures makes no difference as to how well the food is preserved, but it does increase energy consumption by approximately five per cent. Place a thermometer in the refrigerator and the freezer to check the temperature!

Defrost your food by taking it out of the freezer the night before and placing it in the refrigerator or simply leaving it out on the counter. Avoid defrosting in the microwave and adding to your electricity bill!

Don't use the pre-wash cycle on your washing machine. Modern washing machines allow you to bypass this cycle, saving 15 % of the energy that would otherwise be used.

Bake in one go! When baking a quiche, why not profit from an already

Global Warming heated oven and place your apple pie in it as well? You will save 50 % on your gas or electricity consumption!

Switch the stove or oven off a few minutes before your food is ready and make use of the residual heat to finish cooking.

To save on energy when cooking, cut up your veggies into small pieces to reduce the cooking time. When boiling or steaming vegetables, boil the water in the kettle first rather than on the hob, and use only as much water as is necessary.

Iron your clothes in one batch, rather than one item at a time. You will save the energy required to heat up the iron each time you want to use it.

Switch to LED flashlights. With a lifespan of almost 100 000 hours, this lamp will serve you for dozens of years without producing any waste or pollution!

In the office, switch from the old computer monitor to a more energyefficient LCD screen. If you're using your screen up to eight hours a day, you can save up to 100 000 W in one year.

Switch off Taking the time to flip a simple switch or turn off your tap may seem insignificant, but if everyone took the time to do it every day, the results would be considerable. Review these tips for ways to incorporate energy-saving measures into your everyday routine.

Switch off the lights when you don't need them. Switching off 5 lights in hallways and rooms in your house when you don't need them can save around â‚Ź 60 a year and avoid about 400kg of CO2 emissions per year.

Use energy-saving light bulbs: just one can reduce your lighting costs by up to â‚Ź 60 and avoid 400kg of CO2 emissions over the lifetime of the bulb and they last up to 10 times longer than ordinary light bulbs. Energy saving bulbs are more expensive to buy, but cheaper over their life span.

Do not leave appliances on standby - use the "on/off" function on the machine itself. A TV set that's switched on for 3 hours a day (the average time Europeans spend watching TV) and in standby mode during the remaining 21 hours uses about 40% of its energy in standby mode.

Unplug your mobile charger when you're not using it. Even when it is not connected to the phone, it is still draining electricity. There are estimates that 95% of the energy is wasted when you leave the charger plugged in all the time.

Keep cool with a fan. Air conditioners are real energy gobblers an average room air conditioner operates

A car that consumes only 5 liters per 100km can save 750kg of avoided CO2 emissions per year.

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Landfills account for around 3% of the EU's greenhouse gas emissions through the methane released by decomposing bio-degradable waste. By recycling organic waste or composting it if you have a garden, you can help eliminate this problem.

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at 1000 Watt, causing around 650gr of CO2 emissions per hour and costing around â‚Ź0.10 during this hour. Fans might be an alternative, otherwise use air conditioners sparingly and look for the most energy-efficient model.

Switch to green electricity. By doing so, you'll help strengthen renewable energy sources. Currently, only 14% of Europe's electricity is generated from climate-friendly renewable energy sources such as wind, hydro, wood, biogas, and solar and demand creates supply! You may also want to think about fitting solar panels on the roof of your home.

Use the washing machine or dishwasher only when they are full. If you need to use it when it is half full, then use the half-load or economy setting. There is also no need to set the temperatures high. Nowadays detergents are so efficient that they get your clothes and dishes clean at low temperatures.

Use a tumble dryer only when absolutely necessary each drying cycle produces over 3kg of CO2 emissions.

Drying clothes naturally is by far the best way to do it: your clothes will last longer and the energy provided is free and non-polluting!

Boil less water If you only boil just enough water for your cup of tea, you could help save a lot of energy. If all Europeans boiled just the water they needed, thus avoiding 1 liter of unnecessarily boiled water per day, the energy saved could power one third of Europe's streetlights.

Cover your pots while cooking.

Doing so can save a lot of the energy needed for preparing the dish. Even better are pressure cookers and steamers: they can save around 70%!

Take a shower instead of a bath.

Doing so takes up to four times less energy. To maximize the energy saving, avoid power showers and use low-flow showerheads, which are cheap and provide the same comfort.

Turn off your tap. If you turn off the tap while brushing your teeth, you can save several liters of water. Also, a dripping tap can waste enough water to fill a bath in one month, so make

sure to check that they're turned off.

Let the light shine in! Decrease your CO2 emissions and keep your electricity bills low by making the most of natural light. Think about choosing pale-colored walls, ceilings and floors, as well as mirrors, to reflect the daylight.

Switch the lights off before going on holiday. To save electricity, before you leave don’t forget to unplug as many appliances as is possible. If the appliances are still plugged in, they continue to use up energy even if you switch them off.

Turn off your computer during your absence from the office for long meetings or lunch hours. You can thus save up to 20 % of your daily electric consumption. Even if it is not you who is paying the electricity bill, think of the environment.

Plug the electronics in your livingroom (TV, DVD player, stereo system) into a single multi-socket electrical bar. When not in use, simply switch off the bar and save on the electrical consumption by as much as 10 % (ap-

Global Warming proximately 200 000 W a year). Appliances left on standby still use quite a lot of electricity.

Know your average energy consumption and CO2 emissions for your household appliances.

With more European governments driving recycling initiatives, it is becoming easier for everyone to recycle.

Learn new and easy ways to dispose of waste as well as how to choose products and packaging that have less of an impact on the environment.

Bring used glass to the bottle bank and sort paper and cardboard, plastics and cans from the rest of your waste. Recycling one aluminum can saves 90% of the energy needed to produce a new one - 9kg of CO2 emissions per kilogram of aluminum! For 1kg of recycled plastics, the saving is 1.5kg of CO2; for 1kg of recycled glass, it is 300gr of CO2; and recycling 1kg of paper instead of land filling it avoids 900gr of CO2 emissions as well as methane emissions.

Reduce waste. Most products we buy cause greenhouse gas emissions in one or another way, e.g. during production and distribution. By taking your lunch in a reusable lunch box instead of a disposable one, you save the energy needed to produce new lunch boxes.

Reuse your shopping bag. When shopping, it saves energy and waste to use a reusable bag instead of accepting a disposable one in each shop. Waste not only discharges CO2 and methane into the atmosphere, it can also pollute the air, groundwater and soil.

One bottle of 1.5L requires less energy and produces less waste than three bottles of 0.5L. Choose products that come with little packaging and buy refills when you can you will also cut down on waste production and energy use!

Buy intelligently: one bottle of 1.5L requires less energy and produces less waste than three bottles of 0.5L. Recycle your organic waste. Landfills account for around 3% of the EU's greenhouse gas emissions through the methane released by de-

composing bio-degradable waste. By recycling organic waste or composting it if you have a garden, you can help eliminate this problem! Just make sure that you compost it properly, so it decomposes with sufficient oxygen, otherwise your compost will cause methane emissions and smell foul.

Print less! At the office, encourage your colleagues to re-use the other side of paper and print less by archiving their emails and attachments.

You can also try and create paperless habits. Some studies show that office paper consumption is rising by 20 % per year and web-based technology is actually increasing the printing of documents. On average each worker uses about 50 sheets of A4 per day.

Must you print?

Get a mug! Invest in your own office coffee mug instead of using disposable plastic or paper cups.

If you drink two coffees a day, you would be saving approximately 400 plastic cups in one year.

Buy a ‘recyclable’ Christmas tree!

If you buy a Christmas tree, buy one with roots so that you can keep it watered. When Christmas is over you can plant it in the garden. If you buy a cut tree, recycle it by having it collected by your local authorities.

Unsustainable forest practices contribute to deforestation, which is responsible for around 20% of global CO2 emissions.

Say no to paper towels! A mop or sponge will do an even better job at cleaning up a spill so why waste paper? Reduce your waste and you'll help trees.

Say no to plastic or paper bags!

The plastic bags you use but for a few minutes can last for as long as 15 to 1,000 years in the environment. Don't get a new plastic bag each time you go shopping. Get a funky re-useable or cotton bag instead and say 'no thanks' to plastic or paper bags.

Don’t litter! Avoid disposing any waste on the streets, in nature, and especially not in the gutter. This rubbish can end up in the water treatment system and overcharge the decontamination process. Take advantage of city waste baskets. They are everywhere and that's what they are for.

Need new glasses? Around 10 million pairs of usable spectacles are discarded each year in Europe and North America. These can be used to help people in the developing world to afford glasses. Most opticians now act as collection points for old glasses, so drop yours off and give them a new lease on life.

When the time comes to change your car battery, recycle your old one.

Check with your local authorities for their advice as they might recommend that you take it to a special disposal site, or to a garage which collects them for recycling and proper disposal.

Donate your old clothes to charities or collection programs. Your old wardrobe will be given a second life as either second-hand clothes or shredded and recycled as raw material for textiles and packaging. This will save precious energy and our scarce natural resources.

Dispose with care! Take your electronic waste to a local collection point or give it back to the retailer so that it can be treated or recycled properly.

Electronic and electric appliances contain many toxic substances. Since mid 2005, all European Member States are obliged to set up take-back systems for this waste.

Re-use paper! Instead of using a fresh piece of paper for rough work, turn over a used copy and write on the other side. Use products made of recycled paper. Remember! Every ton of recycled paper saves 17 trees compared to paper made from virgin materials.

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Walk Walking is not only good for you; it helps the environment as well. However, we all need to use transport every now and then, so when we do, it's important to make the right choices to save CO2 emissions.

Try one of the following ways to get to work: cycling, walking, car-pooling, taking public transport, tele-working.

On average, for each liter of fuel burnt in a car engine, more than 2.5kg of CO2 is released.

Try to avoid short car journeys because fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are disproportionately higher when the engine is still cold. Research shows that one in two urban car journeys are for less than three kilometers a distance that can be easily cycled or walked.

Try washing your car by hand or using pressurized water jet instead of going to a car wash. Car washes use more electricity and water than the old fashioned way.

If you replace your car, consider the fuel economy of your new vehicle. Under European legislation, car manufacturers must display information about CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of new cars in showrooms and advertisements.

A car that consumes only 5 liters per100 km, can save 750 kg of avoided CO2 emissions year.

Don't let your car warm up while stationary - the amount of fuel that warming up consumes is greater than what you save by starting your journey with a cold engine.

Make sure you have correct tire pressure: if the pressure is down by 0.5 bars, your car uses 2.5% more fuel to overcome the resistance and thus releases 2.5% more CO2.

Consider using low-viscosity motor oil. This lubricates the moving parts of the engine better than ordinary oils, reducing friction. The best oils can reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by more than 2.5%.

Don't leave an empty roof rack on your car. This can increase fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by

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Switching off 5 lights in hallways and rooms in your house when you don't need them can save around _ 60/ $ 90 a year and avoid about 400kg of CO2 emissions per year.

up to 10% due to wind resistance and the extra weight removing it is a better idea.

Don't speed - you will use less petrol and emit less CO2. Driving faster than 120km per hour increases fuel consumption by 30% compared to driving at 80km per hour. 4th, 5th and 6th gears are the most economical in terms of fuel consumption.

Have you heard of eco-driving? It can lower fuel consumption by 5%.

Set your car in motion without pressing down the throttle, shift to a higher gear as soon as possible and keep a steady speed.

A return flight Berlin Budapest causes 200-250kg of CO2 emissions per person.

Use air conditioning sparingly, it increases fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by around 5%. When it's hot, drive for a few minutes with open win-

dows, then close them and turn on the A/C. This will save you the fuel needed to bring down the initial temperature.

Try to travel by train! One person travelling by car alone produces three times more CO2 emissions per kilometer than if this person were travelling by train.

Explore alternatives to flying.

Flying is the world's fastest growing source of CO2 emissions. If you fly, then consider 'offsetting' your carbon emissions. There are organizations that will calculate the emissions you have caused and invest money in renewable energy.

Bicycles produce neither greenhouse gases nor pollution and are therefore the least polluting mode of transport.

Going on a trip? If getting there by car, instead of by train or bus, be generous and share the space. By taking other people who might have made their journey in a separate car, you're putting one less car on the road.

When travelling, choose eco tourism. Developing countries often gain little financial benefit from the influx of visitors to their shores. Only around 30 % of the money spent by tourists on their holiday remains in the host country. Eco tourism is promoted in some countries.

Going on a longer trip? Choose wisely. An average new car generates 160 g/km of CO2 equivalent per passenger, a plane 100-250g/km, a bus 40-80g/km, and a train 40-160g/km.

If going by car, take as many passengers onboard as possible as it will reduce the CO2 emissions per person.

Travel responsibly! Fly only for distances greater than 700 km. Otherwise take the train. A transatlantic flight produces almost half as much CO2 as an average person produces over a period of one year while meeting all his or her other needs, such as lighting, heating and car travel!

Additional suggestions Look for goods carrying the flower logo of the European eco-label. Signifying superior environmental perfor-

Global Warming mance, the Eco-label has been awarded to several hundred environmentally sound products and services from 25 product groups such as light bulbs, detergents, computers and a range of household appliances.

Consume locally produced, seasonal food it's better for the environment because produce grown in artificial ecosystems or greenhouses requires a tremendous amount of energy for temperatures to be maintained. And transporting goods by plane from one side of the world to the other generates about 1,700 times more CO2 emissions than transporting them by truck over 50km.

Eat your veg! Producing meat is both CO2 and methane-intensive and requires large amounts of water. In fact, ruminant animals such as cattle, sheep and goats are large producers of methane due to the way that their digestive systems process food.

• If you need to buy a new copier or copy machine, buy a duplex-capable one, i.e. one that can print both sides of paper. If you make your copies in copy shops, ask them to set the machine to double-sided. You'll save energy on the production of paper.

• Before you print a document or an email, consider whether you really need to print it. A European citizen uses around 20kg of paper per month!

Wash your fruits and vegetables in a bowl of water rather than under a running tap. You will save water and will do so further by watering your houseplants with the remaining water.

Fresh water is scarce! Some 97.5% of water on the Earth is salt water, leaving only 2.5% as fresh water. Of this over two thirds is frozen in glaciers and polar ice caps. The remaining unfrozen fresh water is found mainly as groundwater, with only a small fraction present in rivers, lakes or in the air. Water is a precious resource, use it responsibly and don’t waste it!

A dripping tap can waste as much as one liter of water per hour. In one week, that is enough to fill a bathtub.

Drinking water is precious. Save it!

A leaking toilet could waste as much as 200 liters of water per day.

This is equivalent to flushing your toilet 50 times. Check your toilet for a possible leak.

Sounds like common sense, but a sure way to save water when doing the laundry is to do less of it! Before starting your washing machine, wait for a full load and check your clothes if they really are dirty; one wear does not always qualify them for a wash.

Water your garden in the late evening or early morning. During those cooler hours, less water is lost through evaporation and as a result plants will absorb more of it.

If you let your lawn grow longer, it will require less water. Taller grass encourages deeper roots and shades the soil to reduce moisture loss.

Compost! Start a composting scheme by inviting your neighbors and even your local school to compost organic waste. It is a natural fertilizer and it can increase the soil's ability to retain water and air.

Enjoy beef but eat in moderation.

Beef production accounts for around three times more greenhouse gas emissions than the production of poultry or pork.

Don't waste food. Buy only the amounts you really need, and make use of leftovers. This way you can reduce waste and also prevent emissions from additional production of food.

How often do you go through your family albums? Instead of printing all your digital photographs, archive them on your computer and share them with your loved ones via email.

Is junk and marketing mail being delivered to your home?

Removing your name from the mailing list can be as easy as sending a letter, postcard, email or ticking a box on a

form. This can save many trees and a lot of water each year. You can also add a sign on your mailbox: ‘No advertisements please’.

Pay your bills online! Eliminate your paper trail as well as the energy used to transport paper bills.

Favor toxic-free electronics! Many electronic goods contain hazardous toxic chemicals that are harmful to the environment once discarded. Before buying a new electronic device, find out what companies offer toxic-free products.

Sign your emails with style.

Adding a short sentence ‘Be kind to our planet and print this email only when necessary.’ will spread the word and help save our trees!

Buy in bulk! At your workplace, suggest that individual packets of coffee, sugar, cream and tea be replaced by large containers for everyone's use. It will be cheaper and it will reduce waste.

Use a toy library and if there isn't one in your neighborhood, start one!

Instead of buying new toys, set up a toy library with your friends and exchange them. The variety of toys will entertain the kids and they will be used by more than one child thus reducing your impact on the environment.

Use a thermos flask to save energy. When you boil water for a hot drink, try to boil only what you need, or pour the surplus into a thermos flask to keep the water hot for your next cup!

Have your water boiler inspected once a year to verify whether it isn't poisoning the air in your home or consuming too much energy. Have it replaced once every 15 years – to benefit from the technological advances that render new boilers more energy-efficient.

INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/campaign/control "Eco-flower" logo: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ecolabel/index_en.htm.

Sustainable Forests:www.fsc.org www.pefc.org Sustainable Destinations, explore EU’s catalogue at www.eco-label.com Toxic-Free products : http://www.eco-label.com

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By Mai SAMAHA

THE “ACHILLES HEEL” OF OUR CLIMATE CHANGE T he Arctic’s climate has been changing. Spring thaws are earlier, fall freeze-ups are later and sea ice is shrinking. Unfamiliar plants and animals are appearing, and intense storms are more frequent. The Arctic snow and ice are melting and that means that our planets air-conditioning system is in trouble.

The light colour of the snow and ice reflects most of the suns energy back into space, rather than being absorbed by the dark colour of the land and open water, ice and snow reflect about 85-95% of sunlight while open ocean waters reflect only 10% . That is the one reason the Arctic’s cold is so extreme and our planet does not overheat.

But with less ice cover, the ocean and the land warm up, causing more ice to melt, further warming the planet. The greenhouse gases are a contributing destabilizing factor that makes abrupt climate change more probable.

At the moment everything is melting, the Beaufort Sea, which is basically frozen ocean water, is decreasing in both the area it covers and in thickness, Icebergs, Permafrost, Greenland ice sheets and mountain glacier are all melting. So far on average per decade, the loss in the extent of summer 54

sea ice has equalled an area the size of Arizona, this shrinking sea ice is one of the most worrisome changes in the Arctic (15-20% shrinkage since 1979 and a loss in thickness of up to 40% in some areas in the past few decades.)

Today most of the studies and debates focusing on climate change along with its ecosystems and societies impacts focus on the global reduction of greenhouse emissions and the increase in global temperature and its causes and effects. Fossil evidence demonstrates that earth’s climate can shift within a decade, establishing new and different patterns that can persist for decades to centuries. In addition, these climate shifts do not necessarily have universal, global effects.

They can generate a counterintuitive scenario: Even as the earth as a whole continues to warm gradually, large regions may experience a precipitous and disruptive shift into colder climates.

Scientists have so far identified only one viable mechanism to induce large, global, abrupt climate changes: a swift reorganization of the ocean currents circulating around the earth.

These currents, collectively known as the Ocean Conveyor (The thermohaline circulation), distribute vast quantities of heat around our planet,

Global Warming

and thus play a fundamental role in governing Earth’s climate.

The Conveyor to a large degree is driven by salt. For a variety of reasons, North Atlantic waters are relatively salty compared with other parts of the world ocean. Salty water is denser than fresh water. Cold water is denser than warm water. When the warm, salty waters of the North Atlantic release heat to the atmosphere, they become colder and begin to sink.

deep-sea sediments and ice-sheet cores—show that the Conveyor has slowed and shut down several times in the past. This shutdown curtailed heat delivery to the North Atlantic and caused substantial cooling throughout the region. One scientist has called the Conveyor "the Achilles’ heel of our climate system."

Computer models simulating oceanatmosphere climate dynamics indicate that the North Atlantic region would cool 3° to 5° Celsius if Conveyor circulation were totally disrupted.

even as the earth, on average, continues to warm. If the climate system’s Achilles’ heel is the Conveyor, the Conveyor’s Achilles’ heel is the North Atlantic. An influx of fresh water into the North Atlantic’s surface could create a lid of more buoyant fresh water, lying atop denser, saltier water.

This fresh water would effectively cap and insulate the surface of the North Atlantic, curtailing the ocean’s transfer of heat to the atmosphere.

An influx of fresh water would also dilute the North Atlantic’s salinity. At In the seas that ring the northern a critical but unkfringe of the Atlantic nown threshold, when —the Labrador, Irminger, North Atlantic waters and Greenland Seas— the are no longer suffiocean releases large ciently salty and amounts of heat to the dense, they may stop atmosphere and then a Rapid changes in ocean circulation are linked to an abrupt sinking. An important great volume of cold, climate change 8,200 years ago that had global effects. force driving the salty water sinks to the Some regions turned significantly colder while others Conveyor could quickly abyss. This water flows experienced widespread drought. diminish, with climate slowly at great depths impacts resulting wiinto the South Atlantic Cold, dense water in the Arctic merges with salty water from thin a decade. and eventually throuthe Gulf Stream, which helps drive global ocean circulation. ghout the world’s oceans.

In an important paper that was published in Thus, the North Atlantic 2002 in Nature, oceais the source of the deep It would produce winters twice as nographers monitoring and analysing limb of the Ocean Conveyor. The plunge cold as the worst winters on record conditions in the North Atlantic of this great mass of cold, salty water in the eastern United States in the concluded that the North Atlantic has propels the global ocean’s conveyor-like past century. In addition, previous been freshening dramatically—conticirculation system. It also helps draw Conveyor shutdowns have been linnuously for the past 40 years but eswarm, salty tropical surface waters ked with widespread droughts throupecially in the past decade. The new northward to replace the sinking waghout the globe. data show that since the mid-1960s, ters. This process is called "thermohathe sub-polar seas feeding the North line circulation," from the Greek words It is crucial to remember two points: Atlantic have steadily and noticeably "thermos" (heat) and "halos" (salt). become less salty to depths of 1,000 to 4,000 meters. This is the largest If cold, salty North Atlantic waters did If thermohaline circulation shuts and most dramatic oceanic change not sink, a primary force driving glodown and induces a climate transition, ever measured in the era of modern bal ocean circulation could slacken severe winters in the North Atlantic instruments. and cease. Existing currents could region would likely persist for decades weaken or be redirected. The resulting to centuries—until conditions reached At present the influx of fresher water reorganization of the ocean’s circulaanother threshold at which thermohahas been distributed throughout the tion would reconfigure Earth’s climate line circulation might resume. water column. But at some point, fresh patterns. Records of past climates— water may begin to pile up at the from a variety of sources such as Abrupt regional cooling may occur

FACTS

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Achilles Heel

surface of the North Atlantic. When that occurs, the Conveyor could slow down or cease operating (as previously happened in 2004 for 10 days), the system can weaken or shut down entirely if the North Atlantic surfacewater salinity somehow drops too low to allow the formation of deep-ocean water masses. This apparently happened during the Little Ice Age (about 1400 to 1850 AD). The conveyer system shut down and northern Europe's climate became markedly colder. Old paintings from this era show Dutch skaters on frozen canals-something that would not occur during today's climatic regime. If these current disruptions happening in the North Atlantic conveyor belt continue then the world is settling into a chilling possibility of ice age, plunging North America and Western Europe into a deep freeze within a few decades.

Continued operation of the oceanic conveyor belt is important to northern Europe's moderate climate because of northward transport of heat in the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. Judging from the past records of the distant past, this could be disastrous for eastern North America and Western Europe. Average temperatures could plunge by 5 degrees Celsius for comparison, this is about the same difference as between the global average temperature today and during the last Ice Age, when Canada laid

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FACTS

Ocean circulation is driven by density differences.

(Density is controlled by ocean temperature and saltiness.) Cold, dense water in the Arctic merges with salty water from the Gulf Stream to create the sinking North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. The NADW helps to drive global ocean circulation.

beneath 3000m thick glaciers. The resulting colder, snowier winters would require new infrastructure, damage crops and shorten the growing season. The costs associated with such a change would be enormous. Let’s not forget that the oceans also play a pivotal role in the distribution and availability of life-sustaining water throughout our planet. The oceans are, by far, the planet’s largest reservoir of water. Evaporation from the ocean transfers huge amounts of water vapour to the atmosphere, where it travels aloft until it cools, condenses, and eventually precipitates in the form of rain or snow.

Changes in ocean circulation or water properties can disrupt this hydrological cycle on a global scale, causing flooding and long-term droughts in various regions. The possible chain reac-

tion caused by the transfer of water vapour and climate change potential impact: Weather-related mortality, widespread of infectious diseases, air quality respiratory illnesses, Droughts that can affect crop yields and irrigation demands, Plant and animal species survival, adaptation and migration changes and the loss of species that are unable to adapt without human intervention. , Forest composition, health and productivity, Global water supplies, water quality and the geopolitics involved with countries with shared water sources Erosion of beaches, drowning of islands and reactions on coastal communities But in reality the full consequences would be more complicated because impacts on one sector can also affect other sectors indirectly. To assess potential impacts, it is necessary to estimate the extent and magnitude of climate change, especially at the national and local levels. Although much progress has been made in understanding the climate system and climate change, projections of climate change and its impacts still contain many uncertainties, particularly at the regional and local levels.

The rapid thawing of the sea ice covering the Arctic is causing disruptions in the Atlantic Ocean current results which are being witnessed today. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise rapidly, the chances of the NADW shutting down -or of some other abrupt change- will continue to grow. Reducing the use of fossil fuels is the only strategy available to reduce the risk of catastrophic climate surprises.

Thus, the oceans and the atmosphere constitute intertwined components of Earth’s climate system. But our present knowledge of ocean dynamics does not match our knowledge of atmospheric processes. The oceans’ essential role is too often neglected in our calculations.

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ECO-MASTERPLANNING FOR GREEN CITIES Conversation between Dr. Ken Yeang and Dr. Steffen Lehmann

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alaysian architect Dr. Ken Yeang is an architect-planner and is frequently described as one of the foremost ecodesigners, theoreticians and thinkers in the field of green design. He has been described as one of the world’s leading advocates in ecological and passive low-energy design. He has delivered over one hundred projects and his theory of ‘bio-climatic’ towers has had an impact around the world, fusing high-tech with organic principles. He was born in Penang, Malaysia, in 1948, and was educated in Penang, the United States and at the Architectural Association in London. He received his doctorate in Architecture from Cambridge University in 1974. He is the author of a number of books on the topic of ecological planning and high-rise design (e.g. ‘The Skyscraper: Bio-climatically Considered’, 1996; ‘Eco-Masterplanning’, 2009). According to Yeang, the ‘bioclimatic’ high-rise tower is a low-energy tower that is based on bioclimatic design principles and designed as a vertical urban design typology crossed by air and light wells and protected by sun shading devices. ‘Bio-climatic’ in architecture means responding to the climate with minimal reliance on fossil-fuel energy for achieving comfort.

Ken Yeang’s definition of ‘bio-climatic’ is based on five concepts: The integration of the grey (engineering), blue (water), red (human), and green (landscape) infrastructures in projects of all scales; the bio-integration of the

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building as an artificial element into the biosphere; the eco-mimesis, repeating nature’s patterns such as solar energy and waste equals food; the re-linking of ecosystems by bridging the existing natural areas; and, finally, the monitoring for rectifying and improving the existing built environment. His single-minded pursuit of eco-design through his own architectural practice and writing for over 35 years has influenced countless architects around the world.

Major works by Yeang include: The IBM Malaysia Tower in Kuala Lumpur (1989-1992).

The National Library Building in Singapore (20002005).

The National Library is the first building in Singapore to obtain the ‘Green Mark Platinum’ award. It incorporates many passive and active design strategies, e.g., a large naturallyventilated and lit atrium space; the use of external sunshading louvers; integrated greenery for thermal benefits.

The total embodiment of the building (being its ‘first costs’) was calculated to be 17GJ/m2, an impressive result achieved through carbon footprint considerations in the selection of all building materials. The author, Dr. Steffen Lehmann met with Ken Yeang at the SASBE Conference at TU-Delft in June 2009, to discuss the future of sustainable

Sustainable Development urbanism and why our cities need to change. Here are excerpts from their conversation.

> Steffen Lehmann (SL): Ken, at the beginning I would like to talk with you about the challenges of designing sustainability at the scale of the district, not at the individual building or façade level, so that we can focus on potential strategies that you might bring to projects in the light of the huge challenges we are facing. For instance, how can we best address the broader requirements for the transformation of cities and their energy landscape?

work. Given that you are now involved in projects from London to Dubai to Bangalore, how do you feel about exporting this know-how globally? How is the office driving the design of the masterplanning projects? Is the client usually willing to reimburse the research activities or are they simply expecting an architect to do such research as the basis for a commission?

- KY: We have no problem with disseminating our knowledge

and skills globally – in fact we present all our discoveries and ideas in our books and publications. Regarding the in-house research, most of our clients will not offer extra reimbursement to the research activities. They expect an - Ken Yeang (KY): I think it is not so much a matter architect to do such research as the basis for a commission. of scale, but rather a matter of relationships between Our clients are mostly interested our human built environment and in the end result and the output, our activities with the natural not so much in the process. In environment, regardless of scale. future, we will see much more Our human built environment needs “We should work towards need for ongoing in-house to bio-integrate with the natural research activities simply to stay environment seamlessly and benignly creating more compact and ahead of the developments. at three levels: physically, systemically intense urban developments, and temporally. instead of dispersed, low> SL: Sustainable design is always about holistic approaches > SL: The concept of ‘ecological density models. The more and about seeing things, land use layers’ is of particular compact, mixed-use, systemically exploring and relevance to the ecomasterplanning multicultural and diverse a understanding the variety of process. Could you please explain the solutions that are usually key principles of this approach? city is the more effective and available to any problem. You sustainable it becomes.” frequently use large glass panels - KY: The ecological land-use Ken Yeang to achieve transparency in your mapping approach is a useful designs, even in projects located and quick way to understand the in hot and humid climates such ecology of any location prior to as in Kuwait, Kuala Lumpur or making site layout designs and Bangalore. In building design, planning decisions. However, it is there are different ways to avoid heat gain; for instance, by a simplistic reductionist method, and in addition to this reducing the glass surface. In your architecture, there is a a series of ecological cross-checking needs to be done. desire to build transparency similar to the early modernists.

The ecological land-use method, for example, does not How can it be climatically controlled? take into account the state of ecological succession, or the energy flows through the ecosystem, the level of biodiversity, and so on.

- KY: We generally like to achieve a more natural and unobstructed relationship between the interior and the exterior, which is why we use glass. We also try to bring in as > SL: Because eco-design in the 1970s did not have the much natural daylight into the insides of buildings as benefit of research or academic theoretical models, you had possible, to reduce the use of artificial lighting. to do your own research. Much of your design work is research-led and is based on in-house knowledge that you have built up over years, from one project to the next, where > SL: I want to talk with you about the question of density one project builds on the previous one. Design which is led in urban design, and the idea of high-rise. Does the notion by research and ongoing explorations –for instance in of ‘green high-rise tower’ actually exist? How can a highrecycled material research, innovative technology for rise ever be truly green? In regard to transport-oriented prefabrication of building systems, or energy-modeling– has developments close to public transport and mixed-use, increasingly been recognized as a driver for achieving a which densities should we aspire to in our urban design? higher quality of work. Besides doing the daily project work, many practices now have a research and development - KY: Firstly, we need to determine the carrying capacity division engaged in building special prototypes or other of a particular location or site and its permissible independent experiments that feed-back into the daily office ecological footprint.

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(photos: S. Lehmann, July 2009)

Eco-Masterplanning for Green Cities

> SL: But many of the buildings you design are large monofunctional ‘machines’; for instance, the large office towers which are used as headquarters of banks and global corporations are huge complexes – and I know the brief is asking for these mono-functional towers. Do you see new mixed-use typologies emerging? In this regard, what is, then, the future of Asian cities, where we are currently experiencing the most rapid urbanization processes?

- KY: On the contrary, I usually design buildings like cities-inthe-sky or as vertical urban design, as illustrated in my earlier book: ‘Reinventing the Skyscraper: A Vertical Theory of Urban Design’, published in 2002. For instance, my BATC project from 1997, which is part of a much larger urban idea, is a classic model of mixed-use, multiple accessibility, and vertical urban design. .

> SL: In order to reduce car-dependency, Barcelona and Copenhagen are regarded as a robust model, where walking is very pleasant and well supported by an inter-linked public space network. However, Barcelona has about double the population density per square compared to, for instance, 60

Sydney or Houston. A lot of new research indicates that compact 4 to 6-storey buildings are more likely to deliver social and environmental sustainability. But we rarely build new cities from scratch today, outside of China. So, what should we do with the existing cities and existing building stock? And what should happen with low-density suburbs?

- KY: We should retrofit existing cities and existing building stock and transform them into green eco-cities and green buildings, thereby avoiding sprawl and reconnecting existent low-density suburbs with its green hinterland. > SL: In your recent book ‘Eco-Masterplanning’, published in 2009, you present nothing less than twenty huge masterplanning projects based on your particular approach and design process. Could you please tell us about the SOMA development in Bangalore, in South India? What were the particular challenges with this project; for instance, the cultural differences when planning for cities in India or Saudi Arabia?

- KY: In the SOMA development in Bangalore we started by defining the green eco-infrastructure and then mapped over

Sustainable Development

The National Library Building in Singapore (2000-2005), which is a 14-storey library, regarded as one of the most energy-effective buildings in South East Asia.

this the grey, the blue and the red infrastructures. Culturally there were no particularly significant challenges with this project. We worked well with the client and worked within their design and planning brief. We are now used to work on projects in different countries with different cultures. I find, globally, that our clients are very professional and well informed.

> SL: All experts agree that cities will play a major role in reducing the negative effects of climate change. In the past few years, this role has been actively debated at all levels and some experts have expressed a very clear and progressive view of what cities could do to tackle climate change related issues. For instance, it has been suggested, that we start with city-wide, urban-scale transformations of existing districts. The technology and concepts for holistic solutions are available; however, not much of it has really been taken up so far: In the meantime, some cities have grown considerably, and have further increased their ecological footprint. A high percentage of environmental problems are produced by the uncontrolled expansion of cities. How can a more sustainable, more compact form of urban design be achieved?

- KY: A more compact form of urban design should be implemented and designed at the outset. Retrofitting existent layouts are often costly to implement and difficult to achieve, due to multiple land ownership issues. We should work towards creating more compact and intense urban developments, instead of dispersed, low-density models. The more compact, mixed-use, multicultural and diverse a city is the more effective and sustainable it becomes. Most cities lack a growth boundary and allow uncontrolled sprawl into the precious landscape.

Sustainability, of course, deals with all human activity; it is not just a concept of energy, but it has to do with environmental, as well as social and economic issues. A responsible design from an energy point of view is a good start, but is, in itself, not enough. The quality of public space around and between buildings is extremely important; it impacts the quality of life for citizens, as well as enabling social sustainability. Ideally, all individuals and institutions would participate and, in the process, citizens would play an active role in the creation of public space. It is important to consider the broader city-wide context of sustainable development, and the general idea of 61

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Eco-Masterplanning for Green Cities

imagining communities outside of the narrow confines of ‘building projects’. I call it ‘eco-masterplanning’.

> SL: What kind of role do you think bio-climatic architectural design can play in reducing the negative effects of climate change?

- KY: Bioclimatic design achieves two outcomes: it results in a design that is passive-mode and low energy; and, secondly, by being tied to the climate of the locality, it is a more regionalist in its design. > SL: Sustainability has a long history and there are multiple examples of traditional solutions in vernacular architecture throughout the world, where passive design principles have been convincingly applied. However, over the last fifty years, with the introduction of mechanical airconditioning systems and other ‘techno-fix’ solutions, it seems like we have forgotten about the most basic and elementary design concepts. Are these passive design principles still relevant today?

- KY: Yes, buildings could be simpler, more flexible, with its newly-developed sustainable systems better integrated with the natural environment. If buildings are complex, it is often difficult and expensive to change things or integrate them with the sustainability systems, which has an effect on the lifecycle of the buildings. The need for buildings to be recyclable, to be assembled and disassembled easily has already pressured the architecture community to think differently.

> SL: With your new Solaris office building in Singapore you are currently realizing ‘the ideal manifestation of a human-made eco-system’. Can you please explain what you mean by this?

- KY: The Solaris building features a spiral ramp, like a green ribbon on the outside of the building, more than 10 feet wide and running nearly an entire mile long. This means the amount of planted area winding its way up the building has a larger square footage, of about 90,000 square feet, than the footprint of the site itself, which is only 75,000 square feet in size. In this way the building will act like a humanmade eco-system.

- KY: Buildings often do not respond well to their environment and context. A good building design guarantees a better life for its users and lower maintenance costs throughout its life-cycle, making sustainable buildings more economically efficient. There are active systems, such as the implementation of new technologies and new materials, as well as passive ones, which are based on the design criteria and don’t require a budget increase. Firstly, we need to focus on using the passive systems, such as cross-ventilation or sun-shading systems. By doing so, we are already improving the energy efficiency of the building.

> SL: As a consequence, should buildings be simpler and more generic, less specific, to make them more flexible and to integrate newly-developed systems easier?

> SL: It seems that many of our leading philosophers and thinkers today have not fully started to embrace the new life-shaping issues around sustainability. There is probably not enough discourse about the future of the city. For instance, the question, why do we need ‘urbanity’ has not been fully addressed. Brazilian urban planner Jaime Lerner said, that ‘it is possible to change or transform a city in just two years’. Curitiba is a good example, which illustrates that even small, inexpensive initiatives are able to generate big transformations and improve the urban complexity as a whole. How do you see the future of the city, the development of urban models in the next twenty years?

- KY: Cities are complex systems that are already

Professor Steffen Lehmann Dr. Steffen Lehmann holds the UNESCO Chair in Sustainable Urban Development for Asia and the Pacific, the Professorial Chair of Architectural Design in the School of Architecture and Built Environment at the University of Newcastle (NSW), and is Founding Director of the s_Lab Space Laboratory for Architectural Research and Design (Sydney-Berlin), an international interdisciplinary research cluster.

Steffen’s expertise is in sustainable cities, ‘Green Urbanism’, and energy-efficient buildings.

Steffen has published over 200 academic papers and 7 books (2008).

Additional information can be found on Steffen’s homepage: www.slab.com.au 62

stressed, and very inefficient in some aspects, for example in relation to the management of resources. Not much has been done to explore new urban models to improve the efficiency of cities in the past few decades.

I believe this is, increasingly, a lost opportunity, and we are losing precious time in the battle against climate change. Many times it has been pointed out that cities are both the problem and the solution. Indeed, many things could be done immediately; for instance, implementing new solutions for mobility, waste management, water treatment, installation of smart grid technology, energy or environmental education, and so on. All these ideas would improve the existing city and set a new standard for a very different future. More needs to be done by architects and designers, to make sustainable design the standard, not an option.

> SL: Ken, thank you for the conversation.

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Sustainable Development

THE SUSTAINABLE JORDAN DECLARATION 2009

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Sustainable Jordan Declaration 2009

“We need to ensure that Jordanian cities remain citizen-centred, celebrating their ethnic, multi-cultural and religious diversity.”

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one-day symposium on the sustainable future of Jordan was held in Amman, organised by the Jordanian Renewable Energy Society, the Amman Institute for Urban Development, and the UNESCO Chair in Sustainable Urban Development for Asia and the Pacific.

On this occasion, the following declaration was ratified on 15th June 2009 by 36 organizations:

graphical location between Europe and Asia, which is an advantage. The 2009 Signatories of this Declaration recognize that the development of a sustainable Jordan requires a focus and increased initiatives in the following 9 areas, which need to be embedded in short-term and long-term strategies

The global challenge of climate change grows bigger every day. In the meantime, there is scientific evidence that generating and using energy in the cleanest, most efficient way is a matter of survival. Renewable energy sources will need to play a major part in Jordan’s future energy mix. Investing in clean energy also includes upgrading the old inefficient and greenhouse gas emitting power plants and increasing energy efficiency on all levels. In addition, the role that cities have –some of the largest energy consumers– will need to change and transform into sustainable models of urbanization. In future, the urban design of cities must enable people to thrive in harmony with nature and achieve sustainable development. Cities, towns and villages should be designed to enhance the health and quality of life of their inhabitants and maintain the ecosystems on which they depend.

Jordan occupies a particular situation in the Middle-East, through its central location and history, through its geo-

Energy generation will need to transform towards a significant increase in the use of renewable energy sources, particular solar PV, solar thermal, and solar hot water systems. We need to design cities for energy conservation, renewable energy uses and the reduction, re-use and recycling of materials. Based on the plentiful sunshine, Jordan has the potential to show real leadership in renewable energy technology, securing energy independence with locally generated, decentralized, and distributed energy generation.

1 Renewable energy:

2 Water and waste:

Sustainable treatment and recycling of water, and all forms of waste. Storm and rainwater harvesting and better urban water management are necessary.

Waste-to-energy strategies and more facilities for the sustainable handling of industrial and medical waste are necessary, including recycling and composting of organic waste.

3 Materials and short supply chains: There is a need to emphasize materials re-use, life-cycle, and embodied energy.

Technological innovation for prefabricated modular construction systems need to be explored by the architects and the entire building sector (this will help to ensure housing affordability).

Food supply using community gardens, and short supply chains, need to be fully considered.

4 Sustainable urban form for growth: Establishing growth boundaries for cities will stop sprawl and keep the cities compact. Integration of open green spaces for pedestrians and cyclists, such as parks, gardens, and a high quality of public space networks, to maximize biodiversity and maximize accessibility of the city for all citizens while conserving energy and resources and alleviating such problems as heat island effects and global warming. A better relationship between Jordanian Cities, their urban centres and the countryside/regions needs to be achieved. Stop building in agricultural land; intensification of the use of inner-city roof tops.

5 Ecological awareness and education: Providing adequate, accessible education and training programs, for ca-

Sustainable Development pacity building and local skills development, to increase community participation and awareness of best practice in urban design and management. Supporting innovation, research, and programs at schools. Incubators need to be established for the application of ideas and roll-out of concepts for sustainable development. Encourage and initiate international and community -to-community cooperation to share experiences, lessons and resources (learning from others-principle). The role of the Jordanian universities as leaders and developers of new knowledge is crucial.

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Public transport and the pedestrian-friendly city: We need a strong focus on public transport, to reduce the dependency on the automobile, to build cities for people, not cars. Furthermore, minimizing the loss of rural land by all effective measures, including regional urban and periurban ecological planning. To build cities for safe pedestrian and nonmotorized transport use includes investment in efficient, convenient and low-cost public transportation (green, emission-free buses), and cycle paths.

7 Legal framework, legislation and governance: Provide strong economic incentives and offer subsidies to businesses and the entire private sector for investment in sustainability (which will also create green jobs). Tax all activities that work against ecologically healthy development, including those that produce greenhouse gases and other emissions (polluter pays-principle).

Introducing policies that enable solar power adoption; updating the building code and set targets for

energy and water reduction. A strong position for a Jordanian Green Building Council will help to raise the quality of architectural and planning outcomes (with a focus on passive building principles).

8 Better coordination:

Creation of a government agency that will coordinate and monitor functions such as transportation, energy, water and land use in holistic planning and management, and facilitate sustainable projects and master planning. Build demonstration projects: In policy at all levels of government and in the decision making bodies of all institutions – universities, businesses, non-governmental organization, professional associations and so on – address in the plans and actions of those institutions specifically what can be done through the institutions’ physical design and layout relative to its local community to address climate change effectively.

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City character and social sustainability: The protection of heritage and the unique character of the Jordanian cities and countryside are important. The adaptive reuse of existing older structures and a focus on urban revitalization projects are to be enforced.

The vibrant city is a city of mixeduse, where people live close to work, therefore do not need to commute, allowing more time for family activities. Mixed income neighbourhoods are beneficial for healthy communities.

Protecting views and landmarks to maintain the unique character. We need to ensure that Jordanian cities remain citizen-centred, celebrating their ethnic, multi-cultural and religious diversity.

Signatories of the Declaration This Declaration was signed by 36 organizations, which participated in the Sustainable Jordan Symposium in support of the outlined strategies.

Supporters of the "Sustainable Jordan Declaration 2009" included: > 1. JRES Jordanian Renewable Energy Society > 2. UNESCO Chair in Sustainable Urban Development for Asia-Pacific > 3. Jordanian Ministry of Environment > 4. Ministry of Public Works and Housing > 5. Greater Amman Municipality > 6. National Energy Research Center > 7. Ministry of Municipal affairs > 8. Amman Institute for Urban Development > 9. Royal Netherlands Embassy > 10. Hashemite University > 11. German – Jordan University, Amman > 12. The University of Newcastle (NSW) > 13. Department of Economic Development > 14. Kassel University, Germany > 15. Philadelphia Solar LLC > 16. Crown Plaza Amman Hotel > 17. Modern Times newspaper > 18. Jordanian Russian Alternative Energy Co. Ltd > 19. Meded Academy Center, Irbid – Amman > 20. IDECO > 21. Electricity Regulatory Commission > 22. Applied Science Private University, Jordan > 23. Kansas State University, USA > 24. National Electric Power co. (NEPCO) > 25. Development Zone Commission > 26. KAWAR Energy Corporation > 27. ECO Consult > 28. Jordan Petroleum Refinery > 29. JICA-Jordan office > 30. World Environment Magazine and TV > 31. Mortifier Group > 32. Self Energy > 33. Conergy Corporation > 34. Suntech Corporation > 35. Maan Development Area > 36. South Company for Construction and Development

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By Samir ANWAR Al-GAMAL

MANAGEMENT OF GROUNDWATER QUALITY FOR SHARED AQUIFERS IN WEST AFRICA The need to provide information to better define and protect the quality of the shared groundwater resources within the zone of action of the OSS, should remain among the highest Coop programme priorities.

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Water

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n the arid and semiarid areas of Africa, shortage and lack of access to suitable water form a main cause for poverty, dwindling public health and food insecurity. The Tindof, Taoudeni and Senegalo-Mauritanian basins are the main basin located in the western part of Africa with the Tindof basin shared by Algeria, Mauritania and Morocco, the Taoudeni Basin shared by Algeria, Mauritania and Mali while the Senegalo-Mauritania basins is shared by Senegal-Mauritania, Guinea Bissau and Gambia. A groundwater resource of these two basins constitute the principal water supply

for urban agglomerations, and is also often the only source for accessible and safe supply to rural populations.

Despite the big relevance of the foregoing basins for the well-being of peoples of the countries sharing the same sources, there are few attempts until now to cooperate on their management. While cooperation on surface watercourses is gaining more and more attention in Africa, fostering the creation and sharing of benefits from transboundary aquifers remains a main duty for today’s and future managers. On the basis of this message, a continued collaboration is foreseen to strengthen the integration of transboundary groundwater cooperation within the agenda and scope of work of relevant organizations in the riparian countries.

The quality of water in aquifers of major basins in West Africa (as exemplified by Tindof, Taoudeni and Senegalo-Mauritanian basins) generally is suitable for irrigation use but, in many places, the water does not meet drinking-water standards with respect to several dissolved constituents (dissolved solids/salinity, fluoride, chloride, and sulphate). Only sparsely scattered water-quality data are available for pesticides, volatile organic compounds, and trace metals in the aquifer system. Nutrient data are available, to a varying degree, across the aquifer. Ultimately, conducting such project will be fruitful for the African countries in defining the suitability of such water for drinking purposes.

Origin of the Project The future health and economic welfare of the African nation’s population is dependent upon a continuing supply of uncontaminated freshwater. Many existing sources of groundwater are being stressed by increasing withdrawal. More comprehensive water-use data and analysis of water-use information are needed to quantify the stress on existing supplies and to better model and evaluate possible demand management options to supplement the traditional supply approaches.

Sectoral Priorities Groundwater resources of the major aquifers in the western part of Africa within the zone of action of OSS exemplified by the basins of TindoufTaoudeni and Senegal-Mauritanian basins are the proper areas for the application of the proposed project.

Despite the huge reserve of water accumulated over years, the following facts limit the intensive withdrawal from the foregoing major aquifers: inaccessibility of large areas; risk of contamination with line water; depth (cost wise), and temperature of water; risk of poor chemical quality; risk of soil degradation; cost-benefit relationship.

All natural waters contain dissolved solids. Dissolved solids are introduced into the water from the atmosphere, soil and rocks that the water contacts, and by human activities.

Specific conductance, which is a measure of a substance’s ability to conduct an electrical current at a specific temperature, can be used as an indicator of the concentration of dissolved solids in water.

The need to provide information to better define and protect the quality of the shared groundwater resources within the zone of action of the OSS, should remain among the highest Coop programme priorities. Water quality activities, the local efforts to improve water quality across the countries sharing the same aquifer and improving the availability and dissemination of water quality information to all potential users are of vital interest. Through the partnership between the countries sharing the same aquifer and local national authorities, the Coop Programme can assist efforts by addressing issues that include: providing a more quantitative understanding of the source and fate of chemical entering the system, including atmospheric deposition of potential pollution such as mercury;

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Management of Ground Water Quality

The immediate need for safe quality water to support priority initiatives on improved drinking water supply from the foregoing basins represents a necessity.

determining the effect of land use and management practices for controlling non-point source contamination of groundwater by energy development including coal bed methane extraction, abandoned and active mining, and agriculture as well; understanding the relationship between water quality and the health of ecosystems; characterizing linkages between hazards such as wildfires, on water quality and ecosystem health; assisting water shared countries and state members in setting Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) requirements of the clean water; improving strategies to identify and protect drinking water sources.

Groundwater-Quality Assessment of transboundary aquifers (GQA) Propo68

sed Coop Program is addressed to develop long-term consistent and comparable information, ground water of shared nature, and aquatic systems in support of national, regional, State, and local information needs and decisions related to water-quality management and policy.

Problem Definition and Main Related Problems The Tindof, Taoudeni and SenegaloMuritanian Basins located Western of Africa represent a case of 2-4 countries sharing the same aquifer system. In this situation, it is observed that a regional capacity building approach to promote bi-lateral cooperation on smaller border aquifers and sub-basin shared by 2-3 countries would be more effective and

less complicated than to impose large cooperative frameworks between as much as 5-6 participating countries. Moreover, groundwater forms the principal water supply for urban agglomerations, and is also often the only source for accessible and safe supply to rural populations in Africa. Hence the immediate need for safe quality water to support priority initiatives on improved drinking water supply from the foregoing basins represents a necessity. Accordingly, these shared basins, renewable and non-renewable, represent an invaluable social and cultural inheritance and are of strategic importance for socio-economic and agricultural development, improved welfare and public health, alleviation of poverty and improved food secu-

Water rity for the present and current populations at the foregoing countries.

These shared groundwater resources, as well as the related land resources suffer from growing pressure and lack of proper management, which result in losses in water resources, productive land and life-supporting eco-system.

Main Related Problems Degradation of Ecosystems The degradation of the ecosystem is one of the potential phenomenas that started to affect the ecological system in West Africa where, the flood plain ecosystems have been most affected by construction of the dams. In less than ten years, the degradation of these environments and the consequences on the health of the local population have been dramatic.

For example, the Upstream of Diama,(Senegal) the functioning of regularly flooded wetlands, lakes and ponds, like the Djoudj, Guiers Lake and Lake Diawling, has been seriously disrupted. After 1986, Diama dam blocked seawater intrusion. The water above the dam is now fresh year-round, creating ecological conditions favouring the proliferation of freshwater plants. These are very invasive and eutrophication has begun in some places in the valley and the delta. Downstream of the Diama dam,

perturbations in the functioning of ecosystems takes the form of an increase in salinity and/or a drying-up during part of the year (Ndiael wetlands) due to the reduction of flooding or the destruction of water inflow channels during construction of dikes, irrigated areas, etc. Anthropogenic pollution is caused by the discharge of industrial and agricultural chemicals into these environments.

PUBLIC health The degradation of the basin's ecosystems has affected the riverine population to various degrees. For example, there has been a drop in productivity in some economic areas (agriculture, fishing, livestock raising) compared to productivity during the first years after the dams were filled.

This has led to a decrease in income and, therefore, a decrease in the standard of living.

The most serious problem that the basin has had to face since 1993/94, however, is the impact of the dams on public health. There has been not only a rapid increase in the prevalence of water-borne diseases that were already known in the area (malaria, urinary schistosomiasis, diarrhoea, intestinal parasitic diseases), but also the appearance of intestinal schistosomiasis, a much more dangerous form of the disease.

IRRIGATION Potentials and water requirements The irrigation potential in shared basins suffers from irrelevant basin physiography as exemplified by irrigation in Guinea which is rather limited by the topography (table 1). It has been estimated at 5000 ha .The irrigation potential in Mali is also limited by the topography. Once the Manantali dam (on the Bafing tributary in Mali) is operational, it is estimated that about 10000 ha can be irrigated .The Senegal River valley in Mauritania is rather narrow, with the exception of two depressions in the downstream part. It is expected that with the Manantali dam about 125000 ha can be irrigated. In the present transitional period, with the dam not yet fully operational, an artificial flood is created through the dam in order to practice flood recession cropping on an area of 50000 ha at maximum. In the Gorgol and Karakoro tributary areas the irrigation potential is estimated at a maximum of 40000 ha, mainly through flood recession cropping with the construction of small earth dams.

This brings the total to 165000 ha. In addition there are some 2000 ha of oases in the Senegal basin area. For Senegal, the prospects for irrigation development in the FalĂŠmĂŠ basin are very limited: a few hundred hectares.

However, with the Manantali dam and

Table 1:

> Irrigation potential, water requirements and areas under irrigation

within Senegal River basin Country

Irrigation potential (ha)

Gross potential irrigation water requirement per ha(m3/ha per year)

Area under irrigation (ha)

total (km3/year)

Guinea

5000

23000

0.115

0

Mali

10000

19000

0.190

300

Mauritania

165000

14000-37000

5.185

46450

Senegal

240000

22000-37000

8.880

71400

Sum of countries

420000

14.370

118150

Total for Senegal basin

<=420000

14.370

69

WORLD ENVIRONMENT

Management of Ground Water Quality

the Diama dam (near the mouth of the Senegal River), it is expected that 240000 ha in the Senegal River valley will be irrigated. During the transitional period the flood created through the Manantali dam allows flood recession cropping on 50000 ha, as is the case in Mauritania. The Diama dam, essentially designed to prevent intrusion of salt water, was completed in 1985.

If double rice cropping is practiced in the Senegal River valley, the water requirements are estimated at 37000 m3/ha per year in this study.

In the delta, gross water requirements of 18000 m/ha have been measured for rice in the rainy period and well over 20000 m/ha in the dry period. Some literature even gives estimates up to 50000 m3/ha per year for double rice cropping.

Irrigation potential in Gambia River Basin and water requirements The higher, upstream part of the basin in Guinea is badly eroded. Irrigation would be possible in the downstream part, where the potential has been estimated at 20000 ha.

There are 60000 ha of suitable soils in the Gambia basin in Senegal. It is planned to construct a dam at Kekreti for hydropower and this could irrigate an estimated 15000 ha in Senegal and 55000 ha in The Gambia.

Soils suitable for irrigation in The Gambia are estimated at 80000 ha.

There are about 104200 ha of swamps, of which 33500 ha are cultivated. Mangroves account for an additional 67000 ha. In the dry season, the salt tongue moves upstream at a rate of 15-20 km/month. It is thought that an additional withdrawal of 1 m続/s would increase the penetration of the salt tongue by 1 km/month. The safe limit for irrigation from the Gambia River without major dam construction is, therefore, estimated to be no more than 2400 ha in the dry season. However, if the planned Kekreti dam on the Gambia River in Senegal is constructed, it is expected that 15000 ha can be irrigated in Senegal and 55000 ha in the Gambia. Moreover, this dam could contain salt intrusion during the dry season. The development of these 55000 ha would require 0.275 km続/year of water. A further 25000 ha of mangrove cultivation would require 0.125 km続/year of water.

Mapping the risk of land degradation due to irrigation with Sodium-enriched water SAR : Sodium Adsorption Ratio Classification of water types for different water uses will be made available for further uses.

The concentrations of some consti-

tuents that contribute to the specific conductance of groundwater also determine the suitability of water for irrigation. In particular, large concentrations of sodium can have a negative effect on soils by causing dispersion and swelling. Soil dispersion can harden the soil and decrease infiltration rates at the surface and reduce the hydraulic conductivity of the soil. The ratio of sodium ions to calcium and magnesium ions can be used to predict the degree to which irrigation water tends to enter into the cationexchange reactions in soil. This ratio, called the sodium-adsorption ratio (SAR), is used to determine the sodium hazard for irrigation waters. As the SAR increases, the sodium hazard increases; therefore, the suitability of water for irrigation decreases. The effect of irrigation water on soil infiltration rates is dependent upon the interaction between the flocculating effects of specific conductance and the dispersion effects of sodium. Soils are able to tolerate irrigation waters with large SAR values if the specific conductance values also are large.

Some studies have demonstrated the usefulness of specific conductance for estimating concentrations of other ionic constituents. More specifically, a study in the Tongue River drainage basin in north-eastern Wyoming and south-eastern Montana has demonstrated that specific conductance can be a useful estimator of SAR.

Table 2:

> Irrigation potential, water requirements and areas under irrigation

within the Senegal River basin Country

Irrigation potential (ha)

Gross potential irrigation water requirement

per ha(m3/ha per year)

70

total (km3/year)

Guinea

20000

16 000

0.320

Senegal

15000

7000

0.105

Gambia

80000

5000

0.400

Sum of countries

115 000

0.825

Total for Gambia basin

115 000

0.825

Water

Specific conductance and SAR values for the groundwater samples collected from the studied aquifers will be plotted on a diagram that was modified from Hanson and others (1993) and that describes potential for reduction in the rate of infiltration from irrigation waters for a range of specific conductance and SAR values the collected samples plot in the area of the diagram where no reduction in the rate of infiltration, then no risk in irrigation with that quality of water. If some sample is plotted in the area where a slight to moderate reduction in the rate of infiltration may occur then some adjustment is needed to remove the hazard that may result from the irrigation with that quality i.e. addition of calcium based fertilizer for ion exchange with sodium. The suitability of water for irrigation also is dependent on the salt tolerance of the crops and soil texture.

Although the annual irrigation water

requirement is only 10% of the discharge (Table 2), any water abstraction within the basin in the dry season should be studied very carefully until the Kekreti dam is constructed, in view of the low discharges in the dry season and the danger of increasing salt intrusion from the sea.

usually of local nature and can vary considerably within a basin.

Because of the flat topography of The Gambia and the low river discharges during the dry season, salt water moves up to about 70 km upstream in the wet season and 250 km upstream in the dry season. The tidal variation at the mouth is about 1.6 m.

Summary of environmental impact hazard related to irrigation development

Beneficiaries and stakeholders

Table attempts to assess the environmental risk related to irrigation development, resulting from salinisation and water-related diseases, as well as possible decrease of forestry, fishery and wildlife. Risk has been classified into three categories (Table 3): serious, moderate or low, and presented for each basin and each environmental topic. It should be stressed that, although some major trends may be identified environmental impact is

The project of evaluating groundwater quality in the aquifers of major basins west of Africa of concern will represents an opening phase of a large range of promising development activities, is to be considered as a starting point for various investments and enabling activities in the field of shared water resources management and planning and in particular water uses for different aspects of development.

71

WORLD ENVIRONMENT

Management of Ground Water Quality Table 3:

> Environmental impact assessment of irrigation, by basin Basin

Irrigation potential (1000 ha)

Environmental impact hazard

Salinity

Health

Forest

Fishery

Wildlife

Senegal river

420

+++

++

+

+

+

Niger river

2 817

+++

++

+

++

++

Lake Chad

1 163

+++

++

+

++

++

Nile river

8 000

+++

+

+

+

++

Rift Valley

844

+

++

+

+

+

Shebelli-Juba

351

+++

+

+

+

+

Congo/Zaire river

9 800

+

+

++

+

+

Zambezi river

3 160

++

++

+

+

+

Okavango

208

++

+

+

+

+++

Limpopo river

295

++

++

+

+

+

Orange river

390

++

+

+

+

+

South interior

54

+++

+

+

+

+

North interior

71

+++

+

+

+

+

Mediterranean Coast

850

+++

+

+

+

+

North West Coast

1 200

+++

+

+

+

+

West Coast

5 113

+

++

+

+

+

West Central Coast

835

+

++

++

+

+

South West Coast

1 808

++

++

+

+

++

South Atlantic Coast

84

++

+

+

+

+

Indian Ocean Coast

1 500

+

+

+

+

+

East Central Coast

1 928

+

++

+

+

+

North East Coast

78

++

+

+

+

+

Madagascar

1 500

+

++

+

+

+

Islands

35

++

+

+

+

+

Total

42 504 +++: serious / ++: moderate / +: low or nil

The Project Long Term Impacts Groundwater-resources of transboundary aquifers Proposed Coop Program is addressed to develop long-term consistent and comparable information, ground water of shared nature, and aquatic systems in support of national, regional, State, and local information needs and decisions related to water-quality management and policy. The program is designed to address the following ob-

72

jectives and answer these questions: The proposed project shall attempt to establish links between sources of contaminants, the transport of those contaminants through the hydrologic system, and the potential effects of contaminants on humans and aquatic ecosystems, for a better future health of African populations.

Medium Term Outcomes The proposed project should be part of National African Water-Quality As-

sessment Program (NAWQA) that provides an understanding of water-quality conditions and how those conditions may vary locally, regionally, and nationally; whether conditions are getting better or worse over time; and how natural features and human activities affect those conditions.

The proposed project is a tool for Evaluating What Water-Quality Data May Mean to Human Health of African Nationsâ&#x20AC;Ś How?

Water When contaminants are detected in water resources, it is important to describe what the occurrence of these contaminants may mean to human health. The African Union (AU) should begin an interagency pilot effort to communicate the potential relevance of the water-quality findings of its National Water-Quality Assessment Program in a human-health context. Many ground-water resources sampled by national water authorities are used as drinking-water sources, and waterquality conditions historically have been assessed, where appropriate, by comparing measured contaminant concentrations with drinking water standards and guidelines. Drinking water standards and guidelines are not available yet.

Immediate Outputs Mapping the risk of land degradation due to irrigation with sodium â&#x20AC;&#x201C;enriched water is one of the immediate outcomes of the proposed project as will be explained later under the item of project risk analysis.

The proposed project seeks to strengthen the regional capacity to provide hydrological data and information services and support regional cooperation for water assessment monitoring and management as an immediate outputs and will address several problems such as inadequate water-quality monitoring, inadequate infrastructure for hydrological observation, inadequate regional cooperation and exchange of information in addition of lack of regional water-resources information system.

Last but not least one of the immediate output for the proposed project is that it will reinforce the national capabilities of the participating countries. This will be achieved through the use of the data collected by the project network ( and by the other national networks).

Activity 1 Data collection and analysis

Data collection includes all relevant physical, chemical, scio-economic and environmental data such as topography, meteorology hydrology, isotope hydrology boreholes data, logging data, hydrodynamic characteristics or aquifer constants.

Activity 2 Acquiring complementary field data

This activity will be achieved by the national team and if necessary under supervision of the OSS expertise.

Activity 3 Digital water quality mapping

Achieving the common digitalized regional to sub-regional water quality map with classification diagrams (such as Wilcox and Richard diagrams)for different water uses. Soil risk zone assessment maps will also be developed based on different field criteria.

The concentrations of some constituents that contribute to the specific conductance of groundwater also determine the suitability of water for irrigation.

Common basic aerial digital water quality maps will be made available for further enhanced investigations and water resources activities.

Risks Mapping the risk of land degradation due to irrigation with Sodium-enriched water

SAR: Sodium Adsorption Ratio

Activities

The Project area

Activities related to different outcomes.

The project area will cover three major basins located in west Africa; The 1st

one is the basin of Tindof shared by Algeria, Morocco and Mauritania and the 2nd ones is the Senegalo-Mauritanien Basin shared by Mauritania, Senegal, Guinea Bissau and Gambia, the 3rd basin is Taoudeni Basin shared by Algeria Mauritania and Mali. The Tindof Basin is bound by latitudes of 260310 N and longitudes 00-120 W. It encompasses the synclinal structure of Gebel Quarkziz. The whole basin covers a total surface area of about 210,000 km2 of which 121,000 km2 in Algeria with total front length of 720 km and 85,000 km2 in Morocco with a total front length of 620 km and 4000 km2 in Mauritania with a total front length of 220 km (Fig.2). Rainfall is very scarce in the Tindof basin with aridity index that amounts to 60 representing the hyper aridity situation of this basin. Low rainfall in the Tindof basin is due to the absence of humid air masses with mean annual rainfall of less than 50 mm at its southern parts and 100 mm northward. The whole basin is drained by Wadi Ziz and Rheris where it collects water during flash flood times as runoff in Moroccans territories. The Tindof basin represents the asymmetrical synclinal structure of which Jebel Quarziz constitutes its northern boundary while the southern part of the basin is bounded by the massif crystalline rocks of Yetti outcropping near the Algerian-Mauritanian border. The lithostratigraphic sequence is represented by rock ranging in age from crystalline rocks of Pre-Cambrian age to wadi fill deposits of Quaternary age. The synclinal structure of the Tindof basin is filled with thick sequence of Palaeozoic deposits representing the main aquifer. The Palaeozoic sediments are overlain by thick sequence of marine sediments of the Hamada du Dra Formation of Tertiary and Quaternary age. The groundwater resources of the Tindof Basin is the only water resources in the area and is relatively modest with respect to both quantity and quality. The groundwater resources of the Tindof basin shared by Algeria and Mauritania are not sufficient for exploitation. The Senegalo- 73

WORLD ENVIRONMENT

Management of Ground Water Quality

It should be stressed that, although some major trends may be identified environmental impact is usually of local nature and can vary considerably within a basin.

74

Mauritanian basin is bound by latitudes 120-240 N and longitudes 120-160 W and is shared by Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau. The basin covers a total area of 300,000 km2 of which 111,000 is located in Mauritania, 159,000 km2 is located in Senegal, 20,100 km2 are located in Guinea Bissau and 9900 km2 are located in Gambia.

The aquifer system is a multilayered aquifer with different aquifer members from Senonian to Quaternary show hydraulic connection. The coastal part of the Senegalo-Mauritanian basin shows a salt-water encroachment phenomenon. Sandy deposits of Maestrichtien age form the main aquifer materials occupying the lower part of the main basin and resting upon the Paleozoic

sediments which constitute the aquifer base with total salinity of 17g/l. The Maestrichtien aquifer covers a surface area in Senegal of 150,000 km2 with saturated thickness that ranges between 100 and 350 m and storage coefficient that ranges between 0.6 to 10 % while in Guinea Bissau it covers surface area of 20,000 km2 and show a saturated thickness that ranges between 20-450 m. In Mauritania the aquifer surface area is not estimated yet and none of the hydraulic parameters were defined.

Project main objectives and scientific background The proposed project will be aiming at evaluating the flux of chemicals through the major aquifers within the

foregoing shared basins. This project represents a challenge because of the diversity of chemical inputs, variability of water sources, and diversion of flow for agricultural, industrial, and domestic uses.

Assessing natural and contaminant chemicals in water and sediment, and studying fundamental chemical and biochemical processes that affect the movement of organic and inorganic solutes in aquatic systems. Investigation of geochemical transformations requires a systematic evaluation of the spatial and temporal variation of hydrologic, landscape, and anthropogenic factors. In identifying contamination from anthropogenic activities, majorion and trace-

Water element contaminants have natural sources that must be taken into account. In contrast, identifying contamination by synthetic organic chemicals is more straightforward because they are not naturally occurring.

cides, in domestic and public-supply wells will be assessed in the aquifers shared by different countries within the zone of action of OSS. Effects of long-term withdrawals on ground water quality will be assessed.

Contaminants in aquifers

Assessments of the occurrence of nutrients, pesticides, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), trace elements, and radio nuclides are planned in.

Water quality in domestic and public-supply wells

The occurrence of anthropogenic chemicals, such as fertilizers and pesti-

Processes affecting water quality and contaminant transport

Chemical and hydrologic processes that control the transport of contaminants will be assessed. In addition, studies will assess the effects on water quality of hydrologic alterations and controls such as pumping, artificial recharge, and irrigation.

Effects of land use on water quality

The relation of ground-water quality to land use will be examined in the cultivated areas irrigated by the transboundary aquifer. Effects on ground water used for drinking water from urban development within the zone of action of OSS. How does GQA answer Program objectives and questions? Despite a shift in specific activities inside the Program from local to more regional and national assessments, GQA objectives and questions remain the same, as do the fundamental tenets of the

Program design:

Study design and methods are nationally consistent

. . . .so that. . . .

Water-quality conditions can be compared on a regional and national basis.

Studies are long-term and cyclical

. . . .so that. . . .

Trends in water quality can be analyzed to determine whether conditions are getting better or worse.

Studies relate human activities (contaminant sources, land and chemical use) and natural factors (soils, geology, hydrology, climate) to water quality, aquatic life,

. . . .so that. . . .

Findings help with decisions about managing water resources and protecting drinking water and aquatic ecosystems.

Studies place water-quality findings in a human-health context

. . . .so that. . . .

Findings help to assess and protect the quality of source water and finished water associated with many of the Nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s drinking-water supplies.

Assessments integrate monitoring with modelling and other scientific tools.

. . . .so that. . . .

Knowledge of water quality based on data collected at individual sites is extended to unmonitored, yet comparable areas, and to evaluate various resource-management scenarios and predict how our actions are likely to affect water conditions.

OSS collaborate with government officials, resource managers, industry representatives, and other interested parties

. . . .so that. . . .

data from other organizations are integrated into the assessments, where appropriate, and findings are relevant to decision makers

OSS cover a range of disciplines, including hydrology, geology, geophysics, biology, geography, and statistics

. . . .so that. . . .

The interdependent nature of river basins and aquifer systems can be analyzed.

OSS is committed to making its unbiased scientific information available to everyone

. . . .so that. . . .

Findings are presented in multiple formats, including raw data, reports, journal articles, pamphlets, and videos.

75

WORLD ENVIRONMENT

Management of Ground Water Quality

Detailed Programme Description Contaminants in shallow ground water are widespread, often in mixtures but at low concentrations, across a wide range of landscapes and land uses.

Concentrations of contaminants generally are lower in water in the deeper parts of the aquifers than in shallow ground water underlying agricultural and urban areas. Deep aquifers generally are more protected than shallow aquifers by relatively impermeable materials. Contaminants are most prevalent in aquifers where the geology allows water to move rapidly downward from the shallow ground-water system, such as in carbonate (karst) settings.

Natural featuresâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;including soils, aquifer characteristics (such as geology, hydrology, mineral composition, and oxygen-reducing conditions), and the properties of the chemicals themselves (such as their tendency to dissolve, attach to sediment or bedrock, and persist in the environment)â&#x20AC;&#x201D;affect the movement of water and associated chemicals into and through the aquifer.

76

Contaminants found in ground water underlying agricultural and urban lands are closely related to the chemicals that are applied to the land.

For example, water and chemicals can move relatively rapidly into and throughout sand and gravel aquifers, alluvial fans, and carbonate settings with highly permeable sediment and open conduits in the bedrock.

Contaminants found in ground water underlying agricultural and urban lands are closely related to the chemicals that are applied to the land. Nitrate and selected herbicides were frequently detected in shallow ground water underlying agricultural land, and volatile organic compounds (VOC) were frequently detected in shallow ground water underlying urban land.

Project outcomes The different outcomes of the project can be summarized in the following:

Outcome 1 Data collection, processing and archiving and dissemination that allows regular update of shared water systems knowledge within the different regions.

Such a system is to be operated and sustained for use by individual countries.

Outcome 2 An enhanced understanding of the linkage between water quality, environment and socio-economic aspects through the integration of the key socio-economic and environmental issues to the common data base.

Outcome 3 Common basic Arial digital water quality maps will be made available for further enhanced investigations and water resources activities.

Outcome4

Mapping the risk of land degradation due to SAR.

WORLD ENVIRONMENT

MAGAZINE

|

By Samir ANWAR Al-GAMAL

NEW DIMENSIONS IN STUDYING TRANSBOUNDARY AQUIFERS IN AFRICA:

SEISMIC INDUCED HYDROLOGICAL CHANGES 78

Water

The interaction between volcanism, tectonic activities, and uplift results in aquifer compartmentalization, discontinuous groundwaterflow, lower groundwater storage, and complex groundwater flow patterns.

I

n attempts to optimize the future development of a transboundary basin, certain types of approaches should be sought preferentially, both by institutions dealing with transboundary water resources and by national water authorities themselves.

A convincing explanation of earthquake-induced hydrological and geochemical changes is that they are caused by changes in groundwater pressure due to the earthquakeinduced changes in crustal volumetric strain.

Seismic waves shake aquifer materials and hence increase the permeability of rock to groundwater and other fluids.

An earthquake emits its power in three waves of energy. Compressional or primary, or P-waves, are felt as a sudden jolt. Shear or secondary, or S-waves, arrive a few seconds later and are felt as a more sustained side-to-side shaking.

Surface waves radiate outwards from the epicenter (Figure 1).

Seismic waves have two main types of effects on groundwater levels: oscillations, and "permanent" offsets.

Muddy or turbid water at long distances from the epicenter are most likely an after effect of oscillations.

Seismic waves cause expansion and contraction of the aquifer tapped by the well, in turn causing oscillatory pore pressure changes. If the aquifer has high enough transmissivity, then these pressure changes cause flow into and out of the well. This implies that the pore pressure changes in the aquifer are about the same size as the water level fluctuations in the well.

Offset produces permanent expansion and contraction of the su rounding

79

WORLD ENVIRONMENT

Seismic Induced Hydrological Changes

rocks . The offsets can be "instantaneous" (to the resolution of the water level sampling interval), or they can begin abruptly and take days to weeks to reach their maximum (or minimum) values.

Figure 1.

> Compressional and shear waves impacted

on aquiferâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s materials (Roeloffs, 1998).

Compression

Seismic waves at distant locations are transient, yet they can trigger seismicity that persists for days (or longer) or larger events that are more delayed. It is known that increasing fluid pressure can trigger earthquakes (lab and induced seismicity studies), and the seismic wave induced fluid pressure offsets are effects that last much longer than the duration of the seismic wave train. It also appears that triggered seismicity preferentially occurs in hydrothermal areas, and that in these areas fluid pressure rises are more likely to be increases. The exact mechanism linking the fluid pressure changes and triggered earthquakes isnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t yet pinned down, but the circumstantial evidence for a connection is rather compelling.

Rarefaction

Particle Motion

Compressional or P Wave Travel Direction

Shear or S Wave

Particle Motion

Figure 2.

> Earthquake induced groundwater level changes

(Source: Southern California Earthquake Data)

145

SEISMIC INDUCED HYDROLOGIC CHANGES Hydrologic changes associated with earthquakes can be expressed as an induced change in both quality and quantity of groundwater. The interaction between volcanism, tectonic activities, and uplifting also results in aquifer compartmentalization, discontinuous groundwater flow, lower groundwater storage and complex groundwater flow patterns, in addition to high salinity as well as high fluoride, and above average content of trace elements.

CHANGES IN GROUNDWATER LEVEL Four types of post-seismic responses 80

Landers earthquake Depth to water, in feet below land surface

Ultimately, the most obvious manifestation of an earthquake is the shaking from seismic waves that knocks down buildings and rattles people. Now researchers have established a more subtle effect of this shaking it increases the permeability of rock to groundwater and other fluids.

146 23 142.5

143.5

27 29 June-July 1992

1

Northridge earthquake

12

130.5

131.5

25

14

16 January1994

18

24

18

20

Hector Mine earthquake

12

14

16 October 1999

may be distinguished. In type 1, the groundwater level declined exponentially with time following a co-seismic rise. This was the most common response in the study area and occurred in unconsolidated sediments on the Choshui River fan. In type 2, the groundwater level rose exponentially with time following a co-seismic fall as exemplified by the Landers earth-

quake (Figure 2). In type 3, the groundwater level continued to decline with time following a co-seismic fall. This also occurred in the deformed and fractured sedimentary rocks near the ruptured fault as exemplified by the Northridge earthquake.

Finally, in type 4, the groundwater level, following a co-seismic rise, stayed at the same level or even rose

Water with time before it eventually declined as exemplified by the Hector Mine earthquake (Figure 2) (Southern California Earthquake Data 2007-114). Through the Cooperative Agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy, the Harry Reid Centre for Environmental Studies at the University of Nevada–Las Vegas (NCNSN, 1996) conducts ground water level measurements at selected boreholes near Yucca Mountain, and collects quarterly data from a network of 24 wells currently comprising the monitoring network. Most of these wells lie on the eastern flanks and along the crest of Yucca Mountain within Areas 25 and 29 of the Nevada Test Site

(NCNSN, 1996). The plot of continuously monitored groundwater level changes due to the earthquake of Yucca Mountain is shown in Figure 3, while the quarterly ground water level changes are shown in Figure 4.

The Groundwater Research Group, Osaka City, Island of Awajishima, which is situated very close to the epicentre of Kobe earthquake, Japan, which occurred in January 17, 1995 (Figure 4), has reported repeatedly a dramatic decrease of groundwater level in the Kobe Earthquake. It has been reported by Sato et al. (1995) that groundwater levels started to drop soon after the earthquake.

Figure3.

> Plot of continuously monitored groundwater level changes, in meters showing

effects of earthquake, Yucca Mountain, Nevada (NCNSN, 1996).

2396.50

Elevation Above MSL

The second earthquake induced hydrological change has included change of relative discharge as a function of time shown in Figure 5. Sato and Takahashi (1996) reported the volumetric change of discharge at six locations between May 1995 and June 1996. The overall discharge in June 1996 was 43% of that in May 1995. Although they did not measure the entire volume of discharge over the island, their locations are all situated at the major discharge points and also cover the studied area; thus, it can be assumed that the ratio of their measurements represents the ratio of the whole volume of discharge. Oshima et al. (1996) measured stream flow of four locations, located about 250 m from the coast, whose catchment areas extend about 500–600 m along the coast (Figure 5).

USW WT-2

2396.60

Earthquake

2396.40 2396.30 2396.20

RAPID INCREASE OF DISCHARGE ALONG ACTIVE FAULTS

Trendline

2396.10 2396.00

Rapid fall in water level

2395.90 2395.80 2395.70 22-Aug

1-Sep

11-Sep

21-Sep

1-Oct

11-Oct

21-Oct 31-Oct

10-Nov

20-Nov

Date

Figure 4.

>Plot of quarterly groundwater level changes, in meters, of earthquake,

Yucca Mountain, Nevada (NCNSN, 1996).

USW WT-3 986.75

2394.30

986.80

2394.25

986.85

2394.20

986.90

2394.15

986.95

1

2

Quarter

3

4

Depth to Water

Elevation Above MSL

2394.35

They measured an overall discharge of 1.75 m3/min 290 days after the earthquake. This value is about 1.3–1.6 times larger than the steady state value (integrated over a 500–600m distance) obtained from the model which is described later, in the case where one-third of the annual rainfall is assumed to be the recharge rate. The increase of discharge also is significant compared with the annual fluctuations. Sato and Takahashi (1995) reported that the water level of one of the ponds, which is located where Oshima et al. (1996) measured discharge, increased very rapidly just after the earthquake even though no water existed there before the earthquake. Considering that the dam was artificially broken within a day after the earthquake to prevent it from overflowing, the increase of discharge must have been significantly larger than the annual fluctuations.

CHANGE OF CHEMISTRY OF DISCHARGED WATER Earthquakes have imposed a drastic change in the chemistry of groundwater as a post seismic change in 81

WORLD ENVIRONMENT

Seismic Induced Hydrological Changes

A remarkable change in the concentration of radon in the groundwater was observed after the 1995 Kobe earthquake (Figure 7).

TRANSBOUNDARY (SHARED) AQUIFERS IN AFRICA A consideration of case studies and other transboundary water resources (11 case studies representing the shared groundwater resources within the zone of action of the Sahel and Sahara Observatory (OSS) and 39 for all the African continent) has shown that several factors with potential contributions to the optimal future development of transboundary basins are of frequent importance, but have received insufficient attention from most riparian (and at least some funding agencies) to date. Seismic event induced hydrological changes have received insufficient attention. Joint water management is a desirable objective in transboundary basins. However, the precise form that this should take varies considerably, according to a number of factors which are basin specific of which seismic events have not been considered yet within the framework 82

Figure 5.

> Change of relative discharge (normalized by that in May 1995) as a function of time.

Small dots and dotted lines indicate each measurement and large dots and a line indicate the overall change between

relative discharge (%)

groundwater quality. In Awajishima Island, the change in chemical composition was observed after the earthquake of August, 1994 (Hake and Nishimura, 1994), the earthquake of Jan-Feb, 1995, the earthquake of March, 1995 (Takamura and Kono, 1996) and the earthquake of October, 1996 in a well of 1205m depth as shown in Figure 6. The chemical composition of discharged water resulted in an increase in bicarbonate after the earthquake (Figure 6). The change of chemical composition can be explained either by the mixing of discharged water at steady state and the deeper water represented by the 1205m well or by the discharge of water that had been sidetracked into dead-end pores and/or slow pathways through relatively less permeable rocks due to possible earthquake-induced micro-fracturing, or some other reasons.

100

50

0

100

200

300

400

500

days after the event

of proper management. This issue is closely tied to the securitization / desecuritization scenario, which tends to prescribe the form of interface preferred by the basin states.

Figure 6.

> Change in groundwater chemistry due

to earthquakes (Takamura, Kono, 1996) 0

THE TECTONIC SETTINGS OF AFRICA: Cameroon Rift

0.5

CI

SO4

The Cameroon Rift is an extremely long and straight rift valley dating to the Cenozoic Era (65 million years ago). Its formation resulted in substantial volcanic activity in west and

0.5

0

0.5

1

HCO3

Figure 7.

> Radon emissions before and after the 1995 Kobe earthquake

(Hashimoto et al., 1996).

250 Radon (Bq/liter)

200 150 100 50 0 Nov 1993

Nov 1994

Dec 1995

Jan 1995

Date

Feb 1995

Mar 1995

Water

83

WORLD ENVIRONMENT

Seismic Induced Hydrological Changes

central Africa. The rift was caused by severe warping and uplifting of the craton (as much as 2000 meters).

The uplifting caused expansion of the crust and the resultant collapse of the arch crests along normal faults.

The collapse formed the rift valley, and the breaks in the crust along the fault lines allowed magma to escape near the surface, causing increased volcanism.

cinity of Indonesia. This Mobile Belt was formed as the result of the deposition of erosion materials from the Afro-Arabian craton, the European craton, the Ural-Mongolian Mobile Belt, the Chinese craton, and the Indian craton. The belt dates to the Late Mesozoic-Early Cenozoic eras (100-25 million years ago). Most of the current landmass of southern Europe is built from this material.

The rift is continued off of the AfroArabian Craton by a 2500 km long suboceanic ridge, the Guinea Ridge that terminates at St. Helena Island. It is possible that continued continental shifting may extend the rift as far north as the Mediterranean Sea, effectively splitting West Africa from Central Africa.

Red Sea Rift

West African Mobile Belt The West African Mobile Belt is a Cenozoic relict area where materials eroded from the Afro- Arabian Craton were deposited at the western continental margin. Much of this area was later uplifted by continental displacement.

The Mobile Belt may have at one time been coterminous with the mobile belt along the eastern margin of North America that eventually gave rise to the Appalachian Mountains.

The Belt dates to the Late Paleozoic (500-230 million years ago).

Cape Mobile Belt The Cape Mobile Belt is a Cenozoic relict area where materials eroded from the Afro-Arabian Craton were deposited at the southern continental margin. Much of this area was later uplifted by continental displacement.

This Mobile Belt was probably never coterminous with any of the other land masses of the period. The Belt dates to the Late Paleozoic (500-230 million years ago).

Tethyan Mobile Belt The Tethyan Mobile Belt actually extends from this area, across northern India, through the Himalaya Mountain Range, and finally terminates in the vi-

84

The Red Sea Rift began during the Miocene Epoch (about 25 million years ago) and continues today. Its formation is related to the formation of the Aden Rift. The two rifts have now effectively separated Africa from Arabia, although the two were once part of the same landmass, the Afro-Arabian craton. It has been suggested that the rifting was caused by Africa being displaced 200 kilometres south and west of its original position. Both Rifts attain oceanic depths (i.e. 2000 meters below sea level) over most of their extent. It is possible that Africa is actually pivoting away from Arabia.

The East and West Great Rift Valleys of East Africa offer some of the richest beds of fossils dating from the Miocene and younger to be found in the world.

The Aden Rift began during the Miocene Epoch (about 25 million years ago) and continues today. Its formation is related to the formation of the Red Sea Rift. The two rifts have now effectively separated Africa from Arabia, although the two were once part of the same landmass, the Afro-Arabian craton. It has been suggested that the rifting was caused by Africa

being displaced 200 kilometres south and west of its original position. Both Rifts attain oceanic depths (i.e. 2000 meters below sea level) over most of their extent. It is possible that Africa is actually pivoting away from Arabia.

East and West Great Rift Valleys The East and West Great Rift Valleys of East Africa offer some of the richest beds of fossils dating from the Miocene and younger to be found in the world. With the exception of the South African cave deposits, all of the most important type fossils for Australopithecus and early Homo have been found within the Rift zone. The rifts were caused by severe warping and uplifting of the craton (as much as 2000 meters).

The uplifting caused expansion of the crust and the resultant collapse of the arch crests along normal faults.

The collapse formed the rift valleys, and the breaks in the crust along the fault lines allowed magma to escape near the surface, causing increased volcanism. The rifts began forming during the Miocene Epoch (65 million years ago).

GROUND ACCELERATION IN AFRICA Ground acceleration is a measure of how hard the earth shakes in a given geographic area. A Shake is a representation of ground shaking produced by an earthquake. The information it presents is different from the earthquake magnitude and epicenter that are released after an earthquake.

Shake Map focuses on the ground shaking produced by the earthquake, rather than the parameters describing the earthquake source. So, while an earthquake has one magnitude and one epicenter, it produces a range of ground shaking levels at sites throughout the region depending on distance from the earthquake, the rock and soil conditions at sites, and variations in the propagation of seismic

Water waves from the earthquake due to complexities in the structure of the Earth’s crust (Wald et al., 2005). Accordingly, this parameter should be taken into consideration in modelling the response of any transboundary aquifer particularly if aquifer is located in tectonically active zone.

Conclusion Researchers have concluded that earthquakes offer a unique way to observe how hydrological systems behave, from small watersheds to transboundary aquifers which represent vast aquifers or aquifers of large areal extent. Seismic events inducing hydrological change is a new dimension that should be sought preferentially in studying shared aquifers in Africa. This would improve the joint water management which is a desirable objective in transboundary basins.

However, the precise form that this should take varies considerably, according to a number of factors which are basin specific.

Hydrologic changes occur in response to large earthquakes, and have included:

1 2 3

large drop of the water table in the mountainous areas; rapid increase of discharge along active faults; change of chemistry of discharged water.

Many discharging waters appeared and several well water levels were lowered. This can be explained by permeability enhancement caused by the strong ground motion. A convincing explanation of earthquake induced hydrological and geochemical changes is that they are caused by changes in groundwater pressure due to changes in crustal volumetric strain.

Dr. Samir Anwar Al-Gamal is a Professor in Environmental Hydrology, and the Advisor in water resources at the Sahara and Sahel Observatory (OSS),Tunisia.

REFERENCES Cooper, H.H.J., J.D. Bredehoeft, I.S. Papadopoulos, and R.R. Bennett. 1965. The response of well-aquifer systems to seismic waves, J. Geophys. Res., 70, 3915-3926, 1965.

Hake, Y., and R. Nishimura. 1994. Visit to valuable water springs (27). Valuable water springs in Awaji Island. Journal of Groundwater Hydrology 36, 487–492.

Hashimoto, M., T. Sagiya, H. Tsuji, Y. Hatanaka and T. Tada. 1996. Co seismic displacements of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake, J. Phys. Earth.

Irene, G.P., V. Ricardo, and P. Pallottini. 2008. Tectonic Evolution and Source Rock Distribution Along the East African Margin, AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, Cape Town, South Africa 2008 Kawabe, I. 1991. Hydro-geochemical anomalies associated with earthquakes, Zisin, 44, 341-364, 1991.

Muir-Wood, R. and G.C.P. King. 1993. Hydrological signatures of earthquake strain, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22035- 22068, 1993.

NCNSN. 1996. Nevada Council of the National Seismic Network (1976-1996) to present Southern Great Basin Seismic Network.

Oshima, H., T. Tokunaga, K. Miyajima, K. Tanaka, H. Ishibashi. 1996. Groundwater fluctuations caused by the earthquake. Journal of the Japan Society of Engineering Geology 37, 351–358.

Roeloffs, E. 1988. Hydrologic precursors to earthquakes: A review, Pure appl. Geophys.,126, 177-209, 1988.

Roeloffs, E. 1998. Persistent water level changes in a well near Parkfield, California, due to local and distant earthquakes, Jour. Geophys. Research. 103 (B1), 869-889, 1998.

Roeloffs, E., M. Sneed, D.L. Galloway, M.L. Sorey, C.D. Farrar, J.F. Howle, and J. Hughes.

2002. Water Level Changes Induced by Local and Distant Earthquakes at Long Valley Caldera, California, submitted to Bull. Volc. Geotherm. Res., 2002.

Sato, T., and M. Takahashi. 1996. Anomalous ground water discharge after the Kobe (Hyogo-ken-nanbu) earthquake in the Awaji Island, Japan (part 2): change of the discharge rate. Chishitsu News (506), 24–28.

Shyu, J.B.H., K. Sieh, Y.G. Chen, R.Y. Chuang, Y. Wang, and L. H. Chung. 2008. Geomorphology of the southernmost Longitudinal Valley fault: Implications for evolution of the active suture of eastern Taiwan, Tectonics, 27, 2008.

Simoes M., J.P. Avouac, and Y.-G. Chen. 2007. Slip rates on the Chelungpu and Chushiang thrust faults inferred from a deformed strath terrace along the Dungpuna river, West Central Taiwan, Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, B03S10, doi: 10.1029/2005JB004200.

Stephens, T. 2006. Increased flow of groundwater after earthquakes suggests oil extraction applications, (831) 459-2495; June 28, 2006, stephens@ucsc.edu Takamura, H.,and T. Kono. 1996. Trend of spring water and groundwater in the Awaji Island after the 1995 Hyogo-nanbu earthquake. Journal of Groundwater Hydrology 38, 331– 338.

Wakita, H. 1975 .Water wells as possible indicators of tectonic strain, Science, 189, 553-555, .1975.

Wald, D.J., BC. Worden, V. Quitoriano, and K. L. Pankow. 2005. Shake Map Manual: Users Guide, Technical Manual, and Software Guide, USGS Techniques and Methods 12–A1.

ADDRESS FOR

ACKNOWLEDGMENT The author would like to acknowledge the constructive comments, criticisms and suggestions of Dr. Youba Sokona, Executive Secretary of the Sahara and Sahel Observatory (OSS) and Dr. Ahmed Mamou, OSS’s scientific advisor in reviewing the manuscript of this paper. Thanks are also due to Dr. Alessandra Giannini, IRI for Climate and Society The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York, for her critical reading which has helped in improving the readability of the manuscript.

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By Fulya ILBEY

ON THE SUNNY SIDE OF THE STREET Opportunities and challenges in the Turkish renewable energy market.

86

Energy

S

trong electricity demand growth in Turkey has put pressure on the country's existing infrastructure.

Significant investments in new generating capacity are necessary. The government has begun more aggressively seeking to attract private investment in new installed generating capacity, offering incentives such as guaranteed power supply purchases and raising retail prices to make the sector more attractive. But they are also keen to expand the share of renewable energy in Turkey's power generation mix.

Thanks to its location, climate and geology, Turkey is blessed with an abundance of clean energy resources.

Prevailing westerly winds and a broad sweep of accessible hill ranges in Anatolia create ideal conditions for wind farms. The southern and western parts of Turkey enjoy up to 125 sunny days a year, making them a natural choice for solar energy plants. Rivers flowing from western parts of the country are an important source of hydroelectric energy.

The installed hydroelectric capacity of 13.8 GW in Turkey corresponds to just

38% of the country’s technical hydroelectricity capacity of 37.1 GW. The 13% share of the unconsidered portion (potential net of the licensed and appliedfor-licence capacity) gives the impression that the hydro market would be soon saturated. However, the low level of completion performance of the HPPs under construction and the upcoming privatisation of the EUAS (Electricity Generation Corporation) hydro portfolio is likely to keep the deal ground busy enough.

With its climate and topography, Turkey represents an attractive geography for wind energy investments.

The Marmara, Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean regions have high economic potential for wind power generation. Given the grid infrastructure constraints, however, the highest feasible wind-power generation capacity is estimated at 20 GW, which has been also set as the target capacity to attain by 2023 in the new Electricity Market Strategy Paper (EMSP).

According to the solar energy potential atlas of Turkey, an area of 4,600 km2 is feasible for investment in solar

> State of play in Turkish wind market

applications, with a technical power generation capacity of 380,000 GWh per annum, equivalent to an output from c.56 GW natural-gas fired capacity. This potential out of a total insulation of 2,640 hours per annum renders Turkey second in Europe. The southern and western parts of the country offer the highest solar potential.

Just 5% of the globe falls within the geothermal zone. With its c.1000 resources putting it first in Europe and seventh in the world, Turkey is inside this zone. Two-thirds of the country’s geothermal resources are located in the Aegean region. The number of zones with temperature exceeding 40ºC is 170, 11 of which are classified as feasible for electricity generation.

Striving to attract pending international interest Despite the economic crises in 1994, 1998 and 2001, the installed electricity generation capacity in Turkey more than quadrupled in the last 25 years, reaching c. 42 GW in 2008. Burgeoning economic and industrial growth, an increasing population size, and the resulting pressure on power genera-

> Annual Solar Radiation in Turkey (kWh/ m2-year)

Economic Potential 88,000 MW (wind speed > 7.5m/s)

Operating 14%

<1400 1400 - 1500 1450 - 1500 1500 - 1550 1550 - 1600 1600 - 1650 1650 - 1700 1700 - 2000

Licence granted: 3,300 GW + Licence approved: 910 MW

No disclosure 61%

Viable Potential 20,000 MW

Turbine contract signed 25%

Source: EIE

Source: EMRA, www.ytu.edu.tr

> Breakdown of technical hydroelectric capacity (37.1 GW)

> Installed capacity breakdown (2008: 42GW)

Other renewables 2%

> Generation breakdown (2008: 198GWh)

Liquid fuel 5%

Renewables 1%

13%

38% 9%

Installed Capacity Licensed and underconstruction capacity

Lignite and Hard Coal 21%

Natural Gas 35%

Licence capacity 8%

Liquid Fuel 5%

Natural Gas 46%

Coal 29%

Licence approved Imported Coal 4%

Licence application under review Unconsidered 22%

Source: MENR

Hydro 33%

10%

Hydro 19%

Source: TEIAS, SPO

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WORLD ENVIRONMENT

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tion made renewables the main focus of clean energy investment in 2008.

Turkey started to get the foreign interest it deserved, despite ongoing regulatory uncertainties. Total renewable-energy based electricity generation, grew almost threefold from 150 GWh in 2005 to 1,800GWh in 2008, although its share in the national portfolio remains negligible.

A key development during this period was the increased importance of news of supply disruption and price reactions reflecting the fast-prevailing view that a medium-term supply gap might be an inescapable fate rather than a slim possibility.

Indeed, the official projection for the period 2005-2020 was ringing alarm bells for an electricity shortage as of 2009, and this assumption might have become reality if no slowdown in consumption had occurred. Such shortage scenarios were immediately noticed by the multinational utility companies whose focus was already shifting from their largely saturated territories to the untapped emerging markets. As a result, with its significant renewable energy potential, Turkey has become a centre of attraction for this eastward investment flow.

External financing and soft loans have been central in the achievements to date, and will remain integral to continued success, with EuroTable 1 > Proposed feed-in tariff structure pean and regional PP First 10 years in Second 10 years in development banks Technologies operation (†cent/kWh) operation (†cent/kWh) playing a particularly HPP 7 N/A active role. Project fiOnshore WPP 8 N/A Off-shore WPP 12 N/A nancing is the main Geothermal 9 N/A method, which transPhotovoltaic 25 20 Concentrating solar 20 18 forms the simple Biomass (inc. Landfill) 14 N/A lender-borrower reTidal 16 N/A lationship into a comSource: www.tbmm.gov.tr plex setting including consultants, insurers, future custoTable 2 > Proposed upgrades to feed-in tariff mers, etc. structure for domestic procurement

PP Type

HPP

Manufacturing good

Domestic procurement premium (†cent/kWh)

Turbine Generator and power electronics Blade WPP Generator and power electronics Turbine tower Entire mechanical equipment in rotor and blade groups PV panel integration and solar structure mechanics Solar PV PV modules PV module cells Inverter Focusing tool to collect solar rays onto PV modules Radiation collection tube Solar tracking system Concentrating Mechanical equipment in the thermal energy storage system solar Mechanical equipment in steam production system via collection of solar rays on roof Stirling engine PV panel integration and solar structure mechanics Steam boiler with fluid bed Liquid-fired and gas-fired steam boiler Gasification and gas removal group Biomass Steam or gas turbines Internal combustion engine or stirling engine Generator and power electronics Cogeneration system Steam or gas turbines Geothermal Generator and power electronics Steam injector or vacuum compressor

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1 0,8 0,6 0,8 0,5 1 0,6 1 3 1 0,4 3 0,5 1 2 0,5 0,5 0,6 0,3 0,8 1,5 0,7 0,4 0,3 1 0,5 0,5

When faced with liberalisation in their home markets over the last decade, the once national champions such as Edf, RWE, CEZ and Statkraft reshuffled their overseas expansion strategies and included Turkey in their target portfolio. Another source of interest has been the energy investment arms of international financial institutions such as Cogentrix of Goldman Sachs. This interest mostly focu-

sed on hydro and wind resources. The financial support by international finance institutions of renewable projects is encouraging for domestic commercial banks, which would otherwise hesitate to finance such sizeable upfront invesments.

Among these international finance institutions are the German Development Bank (KfW Bankengruppe), World Bank (WB), International Bank of Restructuring and Development (IBRD), Council of Europe Development Bank (CEDB), Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Japan Bank for International Cooperation and International Finance Corporation (JBIC).

The latest financing news came from the World Bank for the provision of US$ 800mn for the renewable energy investments in Turkey.

However, new lending activity is more closely scrutinised from a risk perspective and is especially frowned upon for long term commitments, as long term liquidity is scarce and expensive, rendering investment in additional supply capacity one of the main casualties.

Despite not being excluded from the credit crunch, the Turkish renewable market is still heating up, as reflected in consecutive disclosures of new investments and M&A activities by ‘cash-ready’s, and supportive statements by the domestic and international financing institutions for the ‘cash-needy’s. Sustainability of this upbeat outlook, however, is crucial given the still significant electricity demand prospect, expected to recover with the eventual turnaround hoped for in 2010.

The attention of multinational players seeking to scale-up their global presence through opportune investments will also focus on domestic companies in need of extra capital. The definition of a strong business model will be revised as the ability to attract a strong and cash-rich multinational partner.

Energy

The southern and western parts of Turkey enjoy up to 125 sunny days a year, making them a natural choice for solar energy plants.

Regulatory sustainability and predictability is key The governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s recognition of this remains crucial, given the uncertainties in regulation and the dominance of the state in new generation capacity over the medium term. The expected amendment in the feed-in tarif structure contained a glimmer of hope for the Turkish renewable energy investment arena. But the ongoing delays in licensing rounds, coupled with the uncertainties regarding the privatisation of the state generation and distribution assets, fog potential investorsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; sight and pulls Turkey down the attractiveness hierarchy.

The basic difference between the power markets of emerging and developed countries is the formerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s high level of volatility. This precludes multinational investors from setting targets for market share and profit margin, and therefore blurs future operations. In that respect, the emergence of a market where the margins are determined

on the base of longer-term contract arrangements and the market share targets are more visible will constitute an important attraction point for longterm investments prospects. Underlying the seamless operation of long-term contracts are timely payments by state contractors and transparent price escalations in particular.

Updates to the EMSP are expected to be supported by the amendments to the Renewable Energy Law The recent update to the EMSP is significant in that it introduces resource utilisation targets for power generation, to be accomplished by 2023. The respective share target for the renewable resources including hydro within the total generation is 30%, versus the current share of 20%. The plan on the wind front in particular is to increase the existing installed capacity of 469 MW to 20 GW over the next 13 years - quite an ambitious target. The recent amendment proposal to the feed-in tariff

mechanism warrants particular attention. The proposed incentive scheme provisions higher and differentiated tariffs for RES Certificate holders with PPs to become operational prior to 31 December 2015.

The new mechanism has the following components:

1

The duration of the participation to the scheme shall start from the date of commissioning for operating PPs or from the date of commissioning for those yet to commence operating. The situation regarding PPs becoming operational after 31 December 2015 shall be renegotiated after 2011.

2

Payments to the power suppliers shall be made by the Market Balancing and Settlement Center (MBSC) in TL, calculated with the Turkish Central Bank/TL parity on the invoice date.

3

In the case of hybrid PPs based on intensified solar technologies and 89

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any other non-renewable technology, only the output of the former shall be eligible for the incentive scheme.

4

Benefiting from this feed-in tariff scheme does not preclude participation in the spot market.

5

Licensees generating power for their own need with PPs of a maximum installed capacity of 500 kW shall be eligible for the feed-in tariffs in Table 1, with the exception of the photovoltaic PPs. PVs with a maximum capacity of 500 kW are in turn provided with the following scheme: Generation up to 2,999 kWh/month: € cent 35/kWh Generation between 3,000 – 6,000 kWh/month: €cent 30/kWh

6 7

The output of the PVs can only be sold to the distribution companies.

A standard 90% discount on the system usage fees shall be applied to all types of renewable-energy based PPs.

8

If the mechanical and / or electromechanical equipment is procured from domestic suppliers, the feed-in tariff levels displayed on Table 1 shall be further upgraded with the rates displayed on Table 2, and be applicable over the first five years of operation.

Fulya Ilbey Fulya Ilbey is a graduate of the METU Political Sciences and Public Administration Department and holds a MSc. in International Relations from METU, and MSc. in Energy Regulation from London School of Economics Law Department. During her studies at LSE, she also worked as researcher at the Economic and Social Research Council and contributed to a number of European Commission projects on the regulation of electricity and gas market, and has developed expertise in the Energy sector.

Ms. Ilbey is a member of the TUSIAD Energy Working Group and is currently the Manager – Energy Expert at Pricewaterhouse Coopers - Istanbul, Turkey.

She has: Worked as Contract Expert for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline Project Directorate.

Applied her academic and sector experience to equity analysis at investment houses as Energy Analyst and covered downstream oil companies operating in Turkey, Russia and the CEE region.

Led strategy development and establishment of a comprehensive business plan and financial model for an independent integrated oil group in Russia Led strategy development and innovation of a business plan and financial model for a Turkish fuel retailer Undertook several commercial due diligence and regulatory advisory projects for different electricity and gas companies Contributes to legislation proposals by Turkish Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association (TÜS_AD) Attends as trainer and speaker to seminars and conferences in Turkey and abroad

Post-Kyoto means it is time to act!

By recently, and in fact belatedly, ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, Turkey displayed its intention to step in among the decision makers of the post-Kyoto period that will begin in 2013. In line with the rights and obligations framework to be determined during the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which will take place in Copenhagen, 07-18 December 2009, and such an involvement is expected to provide Turkish power plant owners/operators with the right to engage in the trade of different emission related financial related products, again after 2012. Currently, Turkish players' activities are limited to the voluntary carbon markets.

90

As of June 2009, the number of the project applications for the Gold Standard by WWF reached 44, nine of which have been approved. 80% of these applications are based on wind-PP projects and the rest is shared among geothermal and small hydro-PP based projects, and waste management projects. The CO2-equivalent units expected to be generated out of these 44 projects is ca. 4 mn tonnes. The trade volumes out of two projects in 2007 and again two projects in 2008 were just 112,000 and 146,000 tonnes, respectively. In the event of the proliferation of such emission-related financial products, allowing

the trade of Turkish output, investors would be provided with a significant financing facility to invest in the Turkish renewable energy market.

However, this could prove chaotic unless the necessary effort is expended now to design an effective regulatory mechanism. Given the deepening complexity of commodity trading, such a proactive and systematic step would definitely prove vital and would be preferable to first covering such trading activities under the existing regulation and then trying to fix the potential problems with ad hoc approaches.

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By Renato BURRI

WASTE: PROBLEM OR OPPORTUNITY?

I

n recent years, the issue of waste has become an ever more serious problem, both in terms of hygiene and in terms of environmental pollution at all levels: dioxin, global warming, water and groundwater pollution. In ranking hazard, we can place it in second place just after the radioactivity of nuclear waste.

The problem of waste disposal proposes yet again, and with a certain gravity, that already faced in the early seventies, as consequence of factors that were not adequately planned for or were underestimated:

1 2 3

the rapid increase of populations

the rise of "disposable" consumer goods

the increase of production of toxic, harmful and not recyclable materials The planning of the problem, apparently solvable by the simple logic of the accumulation "underneath the carpet", that is incinerating bulk without precise knowledge of the solutions that were implemented, has resulted in the question waste becoming an "emergency ".

Unfortunately, despite the substantial increase in the amount of waste - over 300% since the seventies to today

92

- the philosophy of the past years was not supported by an appropriate knowledge of the problem. Waste continued to be treated as something that could simply be burned.

The issue became even more tragic when it was realized that emissions from incinerators produce PM10, or fine particles in nanoscale structures that are much more dangerous for health than dioxins. In the popular imagination urban waste is considered as dirty, contaminated and hazardous to store.

But in reality, what is Urban Solid Waste?

60% of the waste of a town consists in what might be defined as material originating from the packaging of the products we buy: paper, cardboard, boxes of various types, glass for containing liquids, plastics, wood etc.. Added to all this is everything thrown away for the sake of consumerism, objects often fully functional but a bit "oldfashioned" or having excessive repair costs. Approximately 70% of the USW comes, in fact, from production of packaging and discarded goods. That is, the material used for packaging products and the packaging used during transport. Any solution to managing waste cannot be free of initiatives to reduce the quantities at the source. Over 50% of total waste consists of packaging materials.

In Europe, many countries have undertaken initiatives to

Waste Management restrict excessive use of packaging, encouraging companies that use recyclable materials as solutions for boxing in the transport stage, and offering consumers discounts and refunds on the purchase price. In countries like Switzerland, for example, bottled products sold without encouraging the return of the empties can arrive at double the consumer purchase price. A policy of packaging reduction, if implemented with proper regulation, allows a reduction a 50% reduction in the total of Urban Solid Waste, or hundreds of thousands of tons of waste less per day to be stored in dumps or incinerated.

Can the waste be transformed into a resource for the Country?

Once it has been decided that the policy of waste reduction at the source is

the best strategy for remedying the problem, let's see what solutions are available to transform the urban wastes in urban utilities.

The composition of Municipal Waste is generally made up of: paper (40%), humid (15%), timber (15%), metals (15%), plastics (15%): all materials that individually have a specific commercial value. The consequence is that waste represents a management cost only when it is mixed or not separated by type of waste. Thus the separation of materials can turn a cost into a gain. The separation of different materials must obviously occur before the waste being put in the dustbin. One issue that waste companies has faced in Italy is trying to identify the best strategies to encourage individuals to sort waste.

Possible incentives are:

1 2 3 4

Cultural action; Forcing the citizen;

Easier waste collection systems for the users; Customized incentives.

Among these, the strategy that has produced less popular was the 2nd one. The winner proved to be the 4th, reaching up to 90% in persuading the population to make differentiated waste collection. The 1st and 3rd have led to a greater sensitivity but after a certain period of growth stabilized at 30 - 35% of the total number of users.

To optimize the winning strategy of customized incentives, waste compa-

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Waste: Problem or Opportunity?

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nies have developed a management system customized to the user, using a method of identification based on RFID technology. With this simple and inexpensive device the bag of waste can be closed with a small nylon band (TAG) which has a recorded code corresponding to the user. At a later moment the bag is recognized through the code, weighed and the collected waste is credited to the user in the form of a discount on the local municipality rates, or incentives in facilities (free pass for public transport, entrance tickets for museums, exhibitions, etc.) The interest to differentiate as much as possible, comes also from the companies that deal with and transform the materials into different raw materials, providing a list of gadgets to more virtuous users (bicycles, ipod, etc.)

The system also allows the tracking of toxic or hazardous wastes and it

supplies via a computerized software, the full path of waste: from transfer to disposal.

The issue of waste thus can not be solved only with strategies for separation, in fact the materials that can not be processed or handled by incinerators are in great abundance and often they are disposed of in depressed areas of developing countries or even dumped in the sea.

Egenera (an Italian waste company) has been studying the problem for several years and has identified some solutions that are being developed with a U.S. company; among wich installing a molecular disassociator that works at twenty thousand degrees Celsius.

This technique splits the molecules of toxic, aggressive chemical or bio-

logical products, transforming everything into silicon, nitrogen and hydrogen. The heat output is used to generate electricity or heat. The yield of the system allows a return on investment within a few years.

Plasma System at high temperature (15000-26000째 C) that are being tested has the advantage of transforming the incinerator ashes into electricity without producing air emissions. In only a few years, the high temperature plasma disassociators will provide a technological solution to negligible environmental impact.

The use of these technologies should be implemented in a general strategy, starting with the reduction of waste at the source, creating the greatest possible amount of recycled waste, and finally closing the cycle with the plasma technology converter.

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By Cathy CHAMI TYAN

INTERVIEW WITH

Photo: Simon Rogerson

SONJA FORDHAM 96

DEPUTY CHAIR, IUCN SHARK SPECIALIST GROUP AND POLICY ADVISER FOR THE SHARK ALLIANCE

Photo: Jeremy Stafford Deitsh

W

hen was the first study to determine the global conservation status of 64 species of open ocean (pelagic) sharks and rays undertaken?

Although several of the species in question had been assessed against the IUCN Red List criteria previously, the analyses for the recent IUCN pelagic shark report began in earnest at a 2007 workshop in Oxford where experts evaluated the status of a subset of the most oceanic of the pelagic sharks. The results of that workshop were published in a scientific paper which formed the basis for the recent report. Additional red list assessments for the "semi-pelagic" sharks and rays were conducted by scientists around the world and the results added to those from the workshop to form the full pelagic shark report.

How long did it take to complete the project?

See above. The final report was re-

leased in June 2009; most of the writing was done over the two years prior while the work to support the findings has been going on around the world for decades.

Why was the need for it felt?

The IUCN Shark Specialist Group (SSG) was formed in 1991 and is in the final stages of assessing all of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sharks and rays (roughly 1,100 species). There are significant gaps in our knowledge of these species, but much of what we do know is alarming. For instance, whereas we donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know enough about the precise status of many populations or where many species go to mate, give birth, etc, we do know that most sharks tend to grow slowly and have few young and that these characteristics make them exceptionally vulnerable to overfishing and slow to recover once depleted. At the same time, sharks are virtually unprotected on the high seas and in

the waters of most shark fishing countries. With this report and others like it, we hope to highlight the poor status of many shark populations and management schemes so that the public and policy makers will work to improve the situation and ensure that future shark fishing is sustainable.

What are the major findings of the study? Could you elaborate?

Experts examined the status of 64 species of pelagic shark and ray species against the IUCN Red List criteria and concluded: 32% meet the criteria for Threatened with extinction (categorized as Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable).

24% classify as Near Threatened. the percentage of pelagic shark and ray species Threatened with extinction is higher for the sharks taken in high-seas fisheries (52%) than for the group as a whole.

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Interview with Sonja Fordham

In addition, the report offers details about the conservation status of sharks, such as: Sharks are especially susceptible to overfishing because they typically grow slowly, mature late and produce few young.

In most cases, pelagic shark catches are unregulated and/or unsustainable.

Sharks are increasingly targeted due to new markets for meat and high demand for the Asian delicacy shark fin soup.

Fins are too often cut off sharks and the rest of the body is discarded at sea through a process known as "finning".

Finning has been banned in most international waters, but enforcement standards are lenient.

The EU finning ban is among the weakest in the world.

There are no international catch limits for sharks taken on the high seas.

There are no EU limits on catch of hammerheads, makos, threshers, oceanic whitetips or blue sharks.

How many researchers were involved in the project?

More than a dozen experts participated in the 2007 workshop that formed the basis for the report, but

scores of IUCN SSG members contributed to the 64 Red List assessments included in the final report.

Overall, the SSG has roughly 180 members from 90 countries.

Could you tell us the reasons behind hammerhead sharks and giant devil rays becoming globally endangered?

Hammerhead sharks generally do not enjoy a high level of public concern - perhaps because of misperceptions about the danger they pose to people - and as a result, are not high priorities for species-specific conservation action. Hammerheads are preferred species for the shark fin market and yet their meat is not considered of high value; as a result, these species often fall victim to finning.

Hammerheads are also welcome trophies for recreational fishermen in some countries. Even if released, hammerhead sharks do not survive capture nearly as well as other shark species.

Giant devil rays are arguably more charismatic and enjoy more public support than hammerheads and are generally not targeted by fishermen. Their main problem is incidental take (or "bycatch") in fishing gear. Their restricted range (mainly the Mediterranean), small number of pups (one or two per year),

lack of knowledge about their poor status, and low priority for research into their lifecycle exacerbate the threat.

Which are the other species of sharks that are particularly endangered among the 64 species of open ocean sharks?

Species classified as globally Endangered include the: great hammerhead shark (Sphyrna mokarran) scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) giant devil ray (Mobula mobular) Species classified as globally Vulnerable include the: smooth hammerhead shark (Sphyrna zygaena) porbeagle shark (Lamna nasus) oceanic whitetip shark (Carcharhinus longimanus) shortfin and longfin mako shark (Isurus spp.) and common, bigeye and pelagic thresher shark (Alopias spp.).

By what percentage have the number of sharks decreased in the last five to ten years?

Too often, lack of reliable fisheries data prevents precise measurement of species-specific shark population

Third of open ocean sharks threatened with extinction the first study to determine the global conservation status of 64 species of open ocean (pelagic) sharks and rays reveals that 32 percent are threatened with extinction, primarily due to overfishing, according to the IUCN Shark Specialist Group.

The percentage of open ocean shark species threatened with extinction is higher for the sharks taken in high-seas fisheries (52 percent), than for the group as a whole.

"Despite mounting threats, sharks remain virtually unprotected on the high seas," says Sonja Fordham, Deputy Chair of the IUCN Shark Specialist Group and Policy Director for the Shark Alliance. "The vulnerability and lengthy migrations of most open ocean sharks call for coordinated, international conservation plans. Our report documents serious overfishing of these species, in national and international waters, and demonstrates a clear need for immediate action on a global scale."

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IUCN experts classify great hammerhead (Sphyrna mokarran) and scalloped hammerhead (Sphyrna lewini) sharks, as well as giant devil rays (Mobula mobular), as globally Endangered.

Smooth hammerheads (Sphyrna zygaena), great white (Carcharodon carcharias), basking (Cetorhinus maximus) and oceanic whitetip (Carcharhinus longimanus) sharks are classed as globally Vulnerable to extinction, along with two species of makos (Isurus spp.) and three species of threshers (Alopias spp.).

Porbeagle sharks (Lamna nasus) are classified as globally Vulnerable, but Critically Endangered and Endangered in the Northeast and Northwest Atlantic, respectively. The blue shark (Prionace glauca), the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most abundant and heavily fished open ocean shark, is classified as Near Threatened.

Many open ocean sharks are taken mainly in high seas tuna and swordfish fisheries. Once considered only incidental "by-

Biodiversity Targeted fisheries resumed in the early 1990s, this time by Canadians, and again collapsed.

Canadian catches in 1995 peaked at 1,395t, but declined by almost 90% to 146t by 2003. ÂŤAs a result, the Northwest Atlantic population fell by as much as 89% and is now under a recovery plan that spans 100 years.

Today, Canada and France not only allow but promote their targeted fisheries for porbeagles.

Photo: Wurtz-Artescienza

declines. Most reports of declines in oceanic shark populations span roughly the last two to three decades (correlated with advances in offshore fisheries). One exception to these statements is the porbeagle shark and North Atlantic fisheries for its meat which are relatively well-studied; our report recounts their collapse; in particular:

An intense Northeast Atlantic fishery took off in the 1930s and collapsed by the 1960s.

At the time, worldwide porbeagle landings were 10 times what they are today.

With the collapse of the Northeast Atlantic population, targeted fishing shifted to the Northwest Atlantic, where most of the population was removed in just six years.

catch", these species are increasingly targeted due to new markets for shark meat and high demand for their valuable fins, used in the Asian delicacy shark fin soup. To source this demand, the fins are often cut off sharks and the rest of the body is thrown back in the water, a process known as "finning". Finning bans have been adopted for most international waters, but lenient enforcement standards hamper their effectiveness. Sharks are particularly sensitive to overfishing due to their tendency to take many years to mature and have relatively few young. In most cases, pelagic shark catches are unregulated or unsustainable. Twenty-four percent of the species examined are categorized as Near Threatened, while information is insufficient to assess another 25 percent.

The report is based partially on an SSG workshop funded by the Lenfest Ocean Program. Fifteen experts from government agencies, universities, non-governmental organizations, and institutions around the world took part. This and other regional workshops have contributed to the development of the

What was the greatest hurdle in course of the project?

The lack of information about shark fisheries and life history poses problems for most reports on shark status. Better reporting of shark catches (and discards) as well as increased funding for shark research would improve the situation.

What were the dangers involved, if any?

As the report involved policy research, classification of species/populations against the IUCN Red List criteria, and related writing (as opposed to field research), there were no real dangers to the contributors from its production.

Shark Specialist Groupâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Global Shark Red List Assessment, supported by Conservation International and the New Hampshire Charitable Foundation. "The completion of this global assessment of pelagic sharks and rays will provide an important baseline for monitoring the status of these keystone species in our oceans," says Roger McManus, Vice-President for Marine Programs at Conservation International.

The IUCN Shark Specialist Group calls on governments to set catch limits for sharks and rays based on scientific advice and the precautionary approach. It further urges governments to fully protect Critically Endangered and Endangered species of sharks and rays, ensure an end to shark finning and improve the monitoring of fisheries taking sharks and rays. Governments should invest in shark and ray research and population assessment, minimize incidental bycatch of sharks and rays, employ wildlife treaties to complement fisheries management and facilitate cooperation among countries to conserve shared populations, according to the group.

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Interview with Sonja Fordham

What was your specific role in the project and how did you go about fulfilling it?

As a conservation advocate involved in shark fisheries management, I focus on formulating policy recommendations based on the status and biological information provided by the shark scientists.

I also help to ensure that sections addressing current shark management status are up to date and accurate. When the report was complete, I helped to publicize its findings through the media with hopes of raising the profile of sharks among the public and fishery managers.

Photo: Simon Rogerson

What can be done at a global level to protect vulnerable open sea sharks from lengthy migrations?

The IUCN SSG report calls on governments to: set catch limits for sharks and rays based on scientific advice and the precautionary approach fully protect Critically Endangered and Endangered species of sharks and rays

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ensure an end to shark finning improve the monitoring of fisheries taking sharks and rays invest in shark and ray research and population assessment minimize incidental "bycatch" of sharks and rays employ wildlife treaties to complement fisheries management, and facilitate cooperation among countries to conserve shared populations.

What can be done to stop â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;finning?â&#x20AC;&#x2122; Shark finning is banned in most international waters, but by only about 20 countries. In most cases, the enforcement methods are too lenient. This wasteful practice should be banned around the world using the best means possible: a prohibition on the removal of shark fins at sea. When compared to other enforcement methods (such as a fin-to-carcass weight ratio limit that allows fins and bodies to be stored separately), the "fins-attached" strategy is more reliable and enforceable. Such a policy also facilitates the collection of

species-specific information (because sharks are easier to identify to species if their fins are still attached) which is needed for assessing populations and developing appropriate catch limits.

What kind of implications is this study likely to have in a broader sense?

We are hopeful that this study will raise awareness about the urgent need to restrict shark fisheries and elevate the priority of conservation initiatives for these vulnerable species, before itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s too late.

Have you set up an agenda to follow-up the findings of the study? If yes, what are they?

The members of the IUCN SSG will continue to collect information and update the shark Red List assessments as appropriate. Our conservation advocate members and partners will continue to encourage policy makers to adopt shark fishing limits based on scientific advice and the precautionary approach and to use this report as a guide for prioritizing such actions.

Biodiversity

Who is Who IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature, helps the world find pragmatic solutions to

our most pressing environment and development challenges. IUCN works on biodiversity, climate change, energy, human livelihoods and greening the world economy by supporting scientific research, managing field projects all over the world, and bringing governments, NGOs, the UN and companies together to develop policy, laws and best practice.

IUCN is the world’s oldest and largest global environmental organization, with more than 1,000 government and NGO members and almost 11,000 volunteer experts in some 160 countries. IUCN’s work is supported by over 1,000 staff in 60 offices and hundreds of partners in public, NGO and private sectors around the world.

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species™ is the

most comprehensive conservation inventory of the world’s plant and animal species and a widely used tool for focusing attention on species of conservation concern. The assessments evaluate the conservation status of individual species, identify threatening processes affecting them and, if necessary, propose recovery objectives for their populations.

The IUCN Red List threat categories are the following, in descending order of threat:

Extinct or Extinct in the Wild Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable:

species threatened with extinction Near Threatened: species close to the threatened thresholds Least Concern: species evaluated with a low risk of extinction Data Deficient: no evaluation because of insufficient data Species classified as Vulnerable, Endangered or Critically Endangered are considered Threatened.

The IUCN Shark Specialist Group (SSG) is a net-

work of 180 experts from 90 countries who are involved in research, fisheries management, marine conservation or policy development and implementation for chondrichthyan fishes (sharks and their relatives; the skates,

rays and chimaeras). The group’s mission is to promote the long-term conservation of these species, effective management of their fisheries and habitats and, where necessary, the recovery of their populations. The SSG is responsible for assessing the status of the >1,000 species of chondrichthyan fishes.

The Shark Alliance is coalition of 72 conservation,

scientific and recreational organizations dedicated to improving European policies with respect to sharks and rays. By reaching out to the public, governments, interest groups and the media, the Alliance strives to secure science-based national, EU and international conservation measures for these vulnerable species. The Shark Alliance was initiated and is coordinated by the Pew Environment Group, the conservation arm of the Pew Charitable Trusts, a non-government organization that is working to end over fishing in the world's oceans.

Conservation International (CI) applies innovations

in science, economics, and policy and community participation to protect the Earth’s richest regions of plant and animal diversity and demonstrate that human societies can live harmoniously with nature. Founded in 1987, CI works in more than 40 countries on four continents to help people find economic alternatives without harming their natural environments.

The Global Marine Species Assessment (GMSA)

began in late 2005 and is headquartered in the Department of Biological Sciences at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. This project is a joint initiative between IUCN and CI and will be the first global review of the conservation status of every marine vertebrate species, and of selected invertebrates and plants. The project involves a range of partners in compiling and analyzing all existing data on approximately 20,000 marine species, and will determine the risk of extinction according to the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. The GMSA is supported by the New Hampshire Charitable Foundation.

The Lenfest Ocean Program supports scientific research aimed at forging solutions to the challenges facing the global marine environment. The program was established in 2004 by the Lenfest Foundation and is managed by the Pew Environment Group.

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By Elsa J. SATTOUT

INVESTING IN HUMAN CAPACITIES: FRENCH PROJECT DRIVING LOCAL FORCES TOWARDS FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY FOR NATURE CONSERVATION IN LEBANON "The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything except our way of thinking...

We need an essentially new way of thinking if mankind is to survive!"

Albert Einstein

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Biodiversity

I

n 2003, a group of young professionals serving local and national environmental governances and working on nature conservation seeded the germs, hand in hand with the French Agency for Development [Agence Française de Développement: AFD] and the Global French Environmental Fund, to support ways of investing not only in nature conservation but also in human capacities to sustain the protection of national important sites in Lebanon.

These sites, protected by endemic social groups, are sort of relic vegetation left by our ancestors at the heart of an Eastern Mediterranean country. The French initiative executed by a national consortium, came to support six out of eight of the nature reserves in Lebanon through a 3-years project entitled “Appui aux Reserves Naturelles du Liban”. The project aims at strengthening the network of Lebanese Protected Areas through the provision of financial, administrative & technical support for the implementation of natural resources adaptive management plans and for the application of institutional and regulatory reform.

The consortium was established to conserve relic biodiversity repository located on the Western Mount Lebanon Chain. It is formed by local social groups and non-governmental organizations. The consortium will operate in close cooperation and coordination with the Lebanese Ministry of Environment under which the stewardship of Lebanese Nature Reserves fall. The consortium members are Al-Shouf Cedar Society, Society for the Protection of Nature in Lebanon, Committee of Horsh Ehden Reserve, Committee of Tannourine Cedar Forest Nature Reserve, Committee of Bentael Reserve and Amwaj El Bi'a for Tyr Coast Nature Reserve being the project's partners and two additional members; the Association for the Protection of Jabal Moussa and ARocha benefiting from the cross-cutting component which will cover various activities.

The consortium aims at Protecting Nature while Connecting People through

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Photo: Hamed Behishiti

Nature Conservation in Lebanon

the application of its long-term vision stating 'To build up a solid partnership for the conservation and sustainable management of biodiversity in protected areas while leveraging societiesâ&#x20AC;? cultural and economic livelihoodâ&#x20AC;?

Since the launching of the project in August 2008, a set of activities under various thematic areas have been executed. The activities covered biodiversity protection, environmental awareness and education and involvement of local communities. Below we bring you hints on the project scope of work through the transfer of information on the selected activities executed.

A puppet show theatre celebrating the National Protected Areas Day in the Hima of Kfar Zabad The Society for the Protection of Nature (SPNL) celebrated the Protected Area Day on April 4th 2009 with a puppet play held in the Hima of Kfar 104

Zabad and with other interactive learning and recreational activities. The event aimed at introducing the Hima of Kfar Zabad Wetland as an Important Bird Area and to raise the awareness among scholars from the Kfar Zabad village and surrounding villages (Anjar & Zahle) on the importance of the wetland and its protection. 150 students have had a hike across the wetland and have enjoyed bird watching while moving forward to other interactive learning session such as mud animal tracing, birds drawing and puzzling. The scholars enjoyed the puppet play telling the story of a globally threatened bird living in the Hima, the threats that migratory birds face upon their journey and the solution to deal with those threats.

nitoring to local communities and management teams members of Tyre Coast Nature Reserve [TCNR] and Tannourine Cedar Forest Nature Reserve [TCFNR]. The workshop was held in TCNR being recognized as an important site for migratory bird species. Members of TCFNR benefited from the workshop to launch the implementation of the bird monitoring programme in their reserve being declared an IBA sheltering bird species of global importance. ARocha was keen to transfer knowledge on the bird species present in both reserves and to initiate demonstration practices on their identification and monitoring. Each participant left the workshop with a manual and an Arabic bird guide for future uses and implementation of the techniques.

A Rocha Leading bird monitoring workshop in Tyre Coast Nature Reserve

Celebrating Native Trees Protection through Rally 4 Nature event in Shouf Biosphere Reserve

In late April of this year, A Rocha took the lead in transferring knowledge and practices on bird identification and mo-

For the past three years, Al-Shouf Cedar Reserve was organizing an in-

teractive environmental education event in close cooperation with Schools.

Scholars had to rally for nature [R4N] running for an award which entails knowing a lot about nature and the Shouf cedar reserve. The Rally for Nature aims at integrating environmental education into schools curricula while using the reserve as the core platform for such activities. This type of interactive learning has reached top success this year through a joint cooperation between Shouf biosphere reserve and the AFD / FFEM project entitled Appui aux Reserves Naturelles du Liban. Scholars had to pass three stages before going to the reserve. The theme for this year was “Importance of Local Trees in Lebanon”. Around 300 students from public and private schools in the Shouf region participated in the Rally, that took place in AlShouf Cedar Reserve – Barouk Cedar Forest for two days (May 7 & 14, 2009).

The event was closed with award distribution for this spring by a festival at Niha Village on May 22, 2009.

Main Objectives of the R4N

Al-Shouf Cedar Reserve main characteristics:

Familiarize the student and build up their knowledge on native and local trees.

Improve the environmental sense of students Reconnecting youth generation with nature Explore the trails of the reserve.

Exchange of information between students

Largest Nature Reserve in Lebanon Globally southern limit of Cedrus

The Shouf Cedar forests and Amiq wetlands were declared a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve in 2005 further to their declaration respectively as a protected area by law in 1996 by the Government of Lebanon and a RAMSAR site. Shouf Biosphere Reserve is managed by Al- Shouf Cedar Society which was established in 1994. ACS founds and manages the nature reserve in cooperation with Governmental Appointed Committee and under the umbrella of Ministry of Environment.

libani

Important Bird Area A Biosphere Reserve

On the foothills of Mount Makmel: An educational trail will be traced in Horsh Ehden Reserve Horsh Ehden Nature Reserve was declared as natural reserve on the 12th of March 1992. The forest is situated at 34° 49" latitude and 36° 00" longitude. It extends over 350 hectares on the north western slopes of the Mount Lebanon chain where elevations range from 1300 to 1950 m. The forest location is influenced by features of the eastern Mediterranean climate which is characterized as harsh, with a moderately cool and wet winter, followed by warm spring and hot summer. The forest is acknowledged internationally as being the southernmost limit for

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the growth of the graceful species of Cilician fir. The nature reserve is characterized by important variation in altitudeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s range. These various features have imprinted the forests' richness in floristic composition, habitats, microhabitats and niches.

In its core mission, Horsh Ehden Nature Reserve sets among its main objectives the development of an environmental education system for kids. The system will serve as a tool for environmental education in local, regional and national schools. The developed system aims at promoting environmental awareness and at highlighting the value of Horsh Ehden Nature Reserve as a mini-hotspot for biodiversity lying on the foothills of Mount Makmel.

The project in cooperation with the Horsh Ehden Management team and the Appointed Protected Areas Committee members are tracing the first educational trail at the heart of the nature reserve. The trail allows taking the kids on a 'foot ride' while ensuring visionary tools spotting the importance of the forest in terms of environmental aspect and national richness as well as highlighting many other functions it plays in keeping us alive. The trail targets various subjects pertaining to the evolution of the natural world and the important species found in the reserve.

Inspection on biodiversity components in Tannourine Cedar Forest Nature Reserve Tannourine Cedar Forest Nature Reserve encompasses many of the endemic plant species, mammals and invertebrates. Following the outbreak of an insect pest, Cephalcia tannourinensis Chevin on the cedars of Lebanon between 1996 and 2004, and a monitoring biodiversity programme has been initiated. The inspection programme targeted first the insects and then it was extended to cover the plant biodiversity limited by the nature reserve limits. Yearly monitoring assessments of four harmful insects to the cedars of Lebanon are being carried 106

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out in order to anticipate the changes in their abundance particularly those due to climatic changes. These insects include the most damaging ones i.e. the cedar sawfly [Cephalcia tannourinensis Ch.], the cedar shoot moth [Dichelia cedricola Di.], the cedar processionary moth [Thaumetopoea libanotica Ki. & Ta.] and the bud beetle [Ernobius libanensis n.sp.]. Monitoring flora diversity included several components: measurement and definition of age structure, forest composition, assessment of species richness, abundance and frequency of four selected species and implementing trail carrying capacity studies. Some assessments are carried out on yearly basis and others on a fiveyear interval. The flora monitoring scenario will extend until 2017.

Protecting Bentael Nature Reserve from fire risks Founded in 1981, the reserve owes its origin to a local will to protect this middle altitude Mediterranean ecosystem from urban development. Known to be the first unofficial Lebanese reserve, it was inaugurated in 1987 and declared as nature reserve in 1999. The reserve extends over 110 ha. It is a lengthened ribbon from the East to the West covering the right strand of Nahr Bentael, on a width of 100 to 200 meters and a 108

length about 1 Km. Stacking up from 250 to 800 m altitude, it constitutes transition's belt between Mediterranean vegetation zones. The cover is dominated by Kermes oak, with the presence of 21 hectares of pines aged of about 50 years downstream to the west. The natural richness of the reserve is a reflection of the presence of different flora species in a small area located on very different geographic strata [covered, semi-open, closed surroundings, forest, underground cave, cliffs, rivers and pans].

Various geophytes species were found there, of which the rare Urginea maritima [UNEP, 1996]. It is estimated that more than 335 flora species are found of which 67 have medicinal uses. The reserve is also a privileged place of shelters to animals among which foxes, jackals, porcupine and various rodent species. The sunny dry biotope favors the presence of reptile species such as snakes, chameleons, geckos, etc. The forest is a migratory bird's pathway especially for the white stork.

It was declared an Important Bird Area in 2008. The southern hills exposure of the Nature Reserve increases the risks of fire and the loss of a typical Mediterranean restored ecosystem further to anthropogenic factors. To

prevent and control forest fire and to ensure nature reserve protection, a wooden and locally handmade watch tower is put in place. The tower is equipped with all communication tools and positioning maps. The prevention measures integrate the development and design of monitoring programmes as well as development of local volunteers to watch over the reserve. The project age is 9 month, it is managed to drive local forces towards financial sustainability for nature conservation through the planned activities. Future activities will be targeting investment opportunities to ensure the sustainability of Lebanese nature reserves even if international funds are not available at hand. The French initiative is integrating this believes to seed the feeling of self-sustaining and to generate creative ideas and framework for nature protection.

We strongly believe that one would, as Margaret Mead once said, â&#x20AC;&#x153;Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed it's the only thing that ever has.â&#x20AC;?

Elsa Sattout is project chief for AFD / FFEM Projects.

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT: www.lnpas.org

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By John KEYROUZ

THE LEBANON MOUNTAIN TRAIL A TRAIL OF PROMISES s a young boy, I was lucky enough to grow up in several countries and travel around the world. Every summer my parents would take us back to Lebanon and I remember spending some of the most magical and fun filled moments at our house in the mountains.

A

The warmth of a neighborhood in which everyone felt like family, the homemade food and a house that was always full with friends, family and guests from all over. The crisp mountain air and gentle breeze, the shade under the grapevine canopy and the sweet smell of flowers; each one of these memories is truly a treasure to me. Nowhere else in the world I did feel more at home and at peace than in the mountains of Lebanon.

In January 2009; I was 29 years old and living in Los Angeles, California. I came to the conclusion I had enough of Corporate America and wanted to move back to Lebanon.

So, I packed my bags and returned.

Upon my arrival; I took a break off work and chose to rediscover my heritage. I wanted to hike all over Lebanon, visit villages and experience the awesome landscapes this wonderful country had to offer.

In the early spring of 2009, I decided to trek the lower region of Mount Sannine which towered majestically over the town of Baskinta. This muse of a town had the magical ability to seduce and inspire poetic giants like Mikhail Niame, Amin Maalouf and Abdallah Ghanem. Its landscapes resembled a scene out of a J.R Tolken book. It could have easily been the enchanted land of the wooden elves; the mountains were full of snow and the fields were teaming with the

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early blooms of flowers. Green, yellow, pink, red, orange and white colors were everywhere. Bees and birds were busy chirping their individual songs. The fresh air carrying the mountain perfumes filled my lungs.

Trickling streams of glimmering snow water, painted their way across the lush green landscapes that danced back and forth, circling and defining the peaks of smaller royal mountains that stood in awe of Mt. Sannine.

The soft cool breeze carried whispers to my ears, recounting Godâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s brilliance at his creation. The sunâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rays softly massaged and warmed my skin. I took in a deep breath, coaxing my heart and lungs. As I made my way up to the top of the path ahead of me I was surprised to see what

Eco-Tourism

I was awestruck! A small feeling of pride began to trickle down my spine, tingling all over me forcing a smile on my face.

That sign legitimized the very path on which my friends and I had walked. It solidified the purpose for these modern mountainous gardens of Eden to be protected and tended to.

In my mind I kept repeating the name â&#x20AC;&#x153;Lebanon Mountain Trailâ&#x20AC;? and thought, what if there are more signs?

If so is this a trail across all Lebanon?

Have a group of people finally realized the absolute importance of protecting the heritage, history and ecological beauty handed down to us by our forefathers and taken it upon themselves to protect it?

My dream of a better Lebanon had come true in some sense. A clear sense of purpose and organization had finally been introduced to our beautiful moun-

Below the signs, and, in fine letters were the names and logos of ECODIT, USAID, Baskinta Literary Trail, and the Lebanon Mountain Trail.

My mind raced with questions and possibilities. I made it a mission to go back home and research the name. I discovered that the LMT was an as-

looked like a sign in the middle of nowhere. I was so curious, that I sped up to reach it faster, and there it was: a directional sign which explained where I was, where I could go, and the history of the land on which I stood.

tains. Someone had actually taken the time to develop and label some of the points of interest and beauty in this amazing rural landscape.

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The Lebanon Mountain Trail

sociation established in 2007 whose mandate was to develop, maintain and protect “the Lebanon Mountain Trail”.

The first long-distance hiking trail in Lebanon, the LMT, extends from Qobaiyat in the north of Lebanon to Marjaayoun in the south, a 440-km (275 miles) path that transects more than 75 towns and villages at altitude ranging from 1000 meters to 2000 meters (about 3000-5600 feet) above sea level.

This project, which started in 2005, to develop a trail across all of Lebanon, was conceived, developed and executed by ECODIT with funds from the USAID. It ended successfully in 2008.

Since then, the “Lebanon Mountain Trail Association” had taken on the responsibility of mothering and nurturing the trail.

I also noticed a job opening at the association for the position of Executive Director and so I applied.

Fast forwarding to today October 2009: I have been offered the position of Executive Director in this honorable and wonderful association taking great pride and joy in my daily work.

The LMT is more than just a trail. It is more than a sustainable development project, more than a touristic destination or eco-touristic project.

the 21st century that endangers these rural communities. So far, and by raising public awareness to these threats, the LMT has served to protect the Lebanese rural mountains in several cases. While the LMT’s activities and future projects expand on these effects and are intelligently prepared Funds and support for these programs are much needed.

Examples of these are: It is a trail of Promise: A promise that, through dedication and love, great strides can be accomplished in the development and protection of the physical, ecological, geographical, historical and cultural treasures of Lebanon. It is also a promise that with proper education and empowerment, we can encourage ownership of the trail by the rural villages and communities along it.

This project has served to define a new era in the livelihood of these mountainous communities and to shed light on the issues and threats of

> FACT

Ongoing Trail Clearing and Maintenance events are routine and ongoing to ensure the safety of the increasing visitors while protecting the environment.

Ongoing Training of Guides and Guesthouse Owners. Under the LMT project, ECODIT trained 50 local guides on basic guiding skills such as trail interpretation, tree recognition, first aid, and navigation using compass and maps. Now the Association needs to develop a more advanced training for those guides who have shown interest and commitment in past years. The Association needs to continue to monitor the performance of family-run gues-

SHEET

Trail Distance

440 Km

Number of Sections / Days Needed to Complete the Trail

26 days

Distance per Trail Section (Average distance per section: 17 Km)

Shortest: 9 Km Longest: 24 Km

Trail Altitude

600m – 2000m

Number of Protected Areas along the Trail

3

Number of World Heritage Sites near the Trail

1

Total Number of Towns and Villages

75

Number of Towns and Villages with Municipalities

56

Number of rural lodging facilities available in trailside communities*

57 Campsites (3), Guesthouses (19), Inns (6), Rural hotels (25), and Monasteries (4)

Total Distance Cleared & Marked

170 km

Can I walk the entire Trail?

Yes

Do I have to complete the entire Tail in one journey?

No

Number of Trail Guides Trained in 2007

45

Number of Newspaper & Magazine Articles

165

Number of TV & Radio Interviews

32

Potential Number of Visitors in: 2009

57,667

2014 Potential Direct Revenues in: ** 2008 2014

254,731 $4.2 million $22.0 million

Communication Materials: General brochure (3 languages) 26 Sectional Brochures (English only) A Guide to the Lebanon Mountain Trail (English only, pocketsize, softbound) 20 LMT Maps for Hikers (scale 1:25 000).

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Eco-Tourism

thouses established by the LMT project (11 guesthouses so far) and provide additional and advanced training as needed. The association is also seeking funding to refurbish two new guesthouses in Tachea and Aitanit respectively (these villages have no formal accommodation but candidate homes have been identified).

produce an LMT training kit for educators, organize youth walks on different sections of the trail, and invite schools to “adopt a section” working in partnership with local community groups. In short, TTEC has the potential to make a lasting contribution to environmental education in Lebanon and to national reconciliation.

Trail Corridor Plans that address the numerous threats from many sectors including urban sprawl, quarrying, waste disposal, road construction, and fires that the LMT faces daily, by reviewing land ownership and earmarking lands for long-term conservation (land trust, easements, etc.).

Annual Spring Thru-Walk 2010,

Trail to Every Classroom (TTEC) works with the Ministry of Education and Higher Learning (MoEHL) to integrate the Lebanon Mountain Trail in the school curriculum / extra-curricular activities –biology, geography, history, civic education, etc. It will

Builds on the success of the annual spring Thru-Walk for 2009. The Association always seeks partners for this national event which draws about 10 core hikers and more than 200 section hikers every year. The 2009 spring event infused more than $15,000 in the local economy along the trail and generated more than 30 reports and appearances in local and international media.

As a young association we have accomplished much. However the scope of our aspirations for the 21st century is large and we depend on the hearts,

minds and hands of volunteers, active members, supportive members and donors. I have managed to hike on my free time 19 of the 26 sections on LMT to this date and interactions with the local communities, their guides and guesthouses have been equally rewarding. All positive, all warm, all inviting and proud of their participation in the experience of the Trail, a reminder of my childhood memories and a dream come true for me, a citizen of Lebanon.

I have since then developed a new dream, a dream that involves you and those with whom you share this article. Yes, a dream that involves you planning your next vacation to Lebanon and giving us a call at the LMTA to help. Come by and experience a taste of heaven for yourself.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: Lebanon Mountain Trail Association, Tel: + 961 5 955 302 / 3, Fax: +961 5 955 303, P.O. Box 45-264, Hazmieh-Lebanon www.lebanontrail.org 113

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By Alya KEBIRI

EGYPT: ECOTOURISM IN SINAI the feeling of belonging to the environment is inevitable regardless of your ambitions.

T

ravelling and tourism is the third biggest industry worldwide and has been growing at a fast rate. The WTO forecasts 1.6 billion international tourist trips for 2020, 400 million of which being long distance trips between continents.

We all know it by now: travelling is bad for the environment. Eco-friendly travelling does not exist, only less ecohostile. So, if travelling is bad for the environment, then what is ecotourism? And why is it considered "ecotourism" when 15 people visit a northern Thai village that never heard about recycling, and not when 500 people sort their waste in a Spanish resort? Is there anything at all that could be called ecotourism?

The first principle as noted by The International Ecotourism Society (TIES) is to minimize impact which implies running your business on a smaller scale. But that is not the only reason why the bigger resorts fall short when it comes to provide a less eco-hostile tourist experience. Five

other principles are listed by TIES and which have been more or less adopted: Build environmental and cultural awareness and respect Provide positive experiences for both visitors and hosts Provide direct financial benefits for conservation Provide financial benefits and empowerment for local people Raise sensitivity to host countries' political, environmental, and social climate This is about respecting the limitations of a location and its ability to withstand visitors. Ecotourism must not create friction between different locations within an area. Sometimes the analysis and debriefing after a trip is as important as the initial planning, occasionally you might have to re-evaluate whether or not your trip was ecological. Maybe local guides and partners no longer respect your wish to have a miniscule footprint on your surroundings. Many trips labelled as ecotourism to sub-Saharan Africa during the late 80â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s have left substantial scars in the form of da-

Eco-Tourism

maged biodiversity and erosion. One destination where a successful ecotourism spot has developed is a stretch on the east coast of the Sinai Peninsula, between the towns of Taba and Nuweiba. The first initiative was taken in 1986 when an engineer from Cairo set up what would be first of many ecotourism beach camps. The

concept is very simple: they have acknowledged the limitations of the Sinai desert and provided accommodation in compliance with it, such as huts on the beach, limited electricity, saltwater showers and a kitchen that serves food produced from the area.

The tourists that showed up sparked

Many trips labelled as ecotourism to sub-Saharan Africa during the late 80â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s have left substantial scars in the form of damaged biodiversity and erosion.

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Ecotourism in Sinai

an interest throughout the region and many other camps started popping out, resulting in a multitude of "ecofriendly camps" ranging from expensive ones with everything catered for, to cheaper ones offering a simple lifestyle without the luxuries of a modern life such as hot water and electricity.

The early camps have lately been accused of taking advantage of the land with no contributing to the local inhabitants, the Bedouins, but this is easily made up for by the presence of popular camps run by people Bedouin families.

In compliance with the principles of ecotourism these Bedouin camps provide desert treks, handicrafts and local food, yet without imposing anything on the individual visitor. The choice whether or not to immerse yourself fully into the Sinai desert experience is up to each individual guest, but the feeling of belonging to the environment is inevitable regardless of your ambitions.

This is one reason why these initiatives have been nominated for awards as "extraordinary social entrepreneurs."

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The Sinai Peninsula or Sinai lies between the Mediterranean Sea to the north and the Red Sea to the south, forming a land bridge between Africa and Southwest Asia. Its area is about 60,000 km. The Egyptians call it the "Land of Fayrouz", On the same linage of their ancestors who called Sinai "Dumafkat" which also means land of Fayrouz in Ancient Egyptian Language.

The Sinai Peninsula is currently divided among two Egyptian governorates, or provinces. The southern portion of the Sinai is called Ganub Sina in Arabic, literally "South of Sinai"; the northern portion is named Shamal Sina', or "North of Sinai". The other three governates converge on the Suez Canal, including el-Sewais, literally "the Suez"; on its southern end and crosses into African Egypt. In the center is el-Isma'ileyyah, and Port Said lies in the north with its capital at Port Said.

Approximately 66,500 people live in Ganub Sina and 314,000 live in Shamal Sina'. Port Said itself has a population of roughly 500,000 people.

Portions of the populations of el-Isma'ileyyah and el-Suweis live in Sinai, while the rest live on the western side of the Suez Canal in Egypt-proper. The combined population of these two governorates is roughly 1.3 million (only a part of that population live in the Sinai, while the rest live on the western side of the Suez Canal).

Over the past 30 years the Sinai has become a tourist destination due to its natural setting, rich coral reefs, and biblical history. Large numbers of Egyptians from the Nile Valley and Delta have moved to the area to work in tourism, while at the same time development has robbed native Bedouin of their grazing land and fishing grounds.

In order to help alleviate the problems faced by the Sinai Bedouin due to mass tourism, various NGOs have begun to operate in the region including the Makhad Trust, a UK charity who assist the Bedouin in developing a sustainable income whilst protecting Sinai's natural environment, heritage and culture.

Sinai is one of the coldest provinces in Egypt because of its high altitudes and mountainous topographies, winter temperature in some of Sinai's cities and towns reach -16C and the topographic locations encourages to establish skiing resorts and construct telefrics routes.

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THE WE QUIZ TEST YOUR KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT

1

A one meter rise in sea levels would wipe out what percent of the worlds crop lands?

a) 75 percent b) 26 percent c) 33 percent

2

What percentage of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population depends on water sourced from the Tibetan plateau? a) 14 percent b) 47 percent c) 55 percent

3

How many women in the developing world died in 2000 of causes related to pregnancy and child birth?

a) 136,000 b) 253,000 c) 527,000

4

In the past years how many countries have engaged in violence over water disputes?

a) 25

b) 61 c) 37

5

In the Lomas de Manchay an area of slum-covered hills near Lima, Peru, the poor indigenous migrants pay $3.22 per cubic meter of water. How much do residents of Limaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s exclusive Rinconada del Lago neighbourhood pay? a) $2.56 b) $5.95 c) $0.45

6

In the past four decades of Christmas Bird count data reveal that 58% of observed bird species have moved significantly northward. Which of the following phenomena explains this movement?

a) A shortage in their food chain has caused a shift in the geo-migration patterns for the species. b) Rising average winter temperatures make northern latitudes more hospitable to many species commonly found further south. c) Increase in electromagnetic frequencies has caused the species to lose sense of direction.

7

How many people in the world do not have access to clean drinking water?

a) 1 in 6 b) 1 in 4 c) 1 in 10

8

There are 2.2 billion children in the world, the estimated number of children in poverty is?

a) 1.4 billion b) 1 billion c) 800 million

ANSWERS ON PAGE 127 117

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By Gabriella PORILLI

OLDEST HOSPICE IN AFRICA MARKS 30th ANNIVERSARY

THE STORY OF ISLAND HOSPICE IN ZIMBABWE

Photo: Andy Aitchison

Operating in a climate permeated by pandemics, fear and serious economic uncertainty, Island Hospice provides a vital service to some of the world's most impoverished and vulnerable communities.

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Eco-Living This year marks the 30th Anniversary of the Harare-based organisation - a pioneer in the provision of palliative care and support to people with life-threatening illnesses, their families and caregivers. As the health care system becomes less viable in Zimbabwe, an increasing amount of people are turning to the pediatric clinics operated by Island Hospice.

Without regular donations, the organisation will not be able to meet the magnitude of the demand.

No stranger to operating in extremely difficult circumstances, Island Hospice has become known for its creativity and efficiency in responding to challenges and developing programmes to address emerging needs. The organisation has recently evolved its service

to provide more tailored support to child carers, in response to the growing numbers of children being left to care for dying parents and siblings, and facing bereavement at a very young age.

Challenging Times Zimbabwe has one of the lowest life expectancies on Earth 44 for men and 43 for women and one of the highest number of child carers. The Hararebased organisation faces a number of acute challenges due to the collapse of the health system and the far-reaching impact of the HIV pandemic and the recent cholera outbreak.

In a nation where 15% of adults, and a large number of children, are HIV positive; where a cholera outbreak has

Supporting Island Hospice is a way for people around the world to show they have not forgotten the plight of Zimbabwe’s most vulnerable people, without the risk of donations being misused or lost.

now affected over 100,000 people; and where malnutrition, infectious diseases, malaria and the breakdown of sanitation and drinking water services are causing widespread, serious health problems, the resources available to treat the sick and dying are woefully inadequate.

The collapse of the economy and the rise of hyperinflation, have made essential medical supplies like antibiotics, antiretroviral HIV drugs and pain-relief medication practically inaccessible, and left doctors and nurses unable to survive on their salaries.

Hospitals have been left without power, without water and sanitation, and completely unable to function.

As a result, since October 2008, three of Zimbabwe’s four main hospitals have closed down, abandoning patients to their fate.

Almost one in every ten people in Zimbabwe today is an orphan. Many of whom are left alone to cope with their bereavement and own health problems, as well as care for siblings, without any support or guidance.

With so many people sick and dying, the traditional extended family and community networks being broken and overburdened, Island Hospice’s Young Carers Training programme gives young people the skills and basic equipment they need to care for sick relatives, and themselves, and the organisation also works to locate adult relatives who, with support, can act as guardians for these vulnerable children.

Despite the unfavorable operating climate, the Island Hospice team continues to reach out to the most needy in the communities primarily through capacity building initiatives, direct ‘hands on’ care and psychological support programmes.

It is almost impossible to exaggerate the extent of the catastrophe for the Zimbabwean people, and not difficult to see that the critical services 119

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The Story of Island Hospice in Zimbabwe

provided by Island Hospice have never been more needed. In all too many cases there is simply nowhere else for people to turn.

A Centre of Excellence in Palliative Care Despite the obstacles it has faced in recent years, Island Hospice has emerged a resilient and successful Centre of Palliative Care, trusted both locally and internationally for its professionalism, reliability and financial integrity. Island Hospice provides inspiration and leadership in quality hospice care both in Zimbabwe and neighbouring countries.

Island Hospiceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s commitment to providing high-quality and holistic care to the community encompasses medical treatment, pain relief and nursing assistance, training in practical skills, and emotional and social support to people coping with terminal illness and the trauma of bereavement. The organisation believes in long-term support, getting to know the families it helps intimately, and providing a personalised service that really addresses their needs and provides solutions.

While most of its primary services are provided to people in their own homes, the organisation also supports patients in hospitals and at its regular clinics, and works closely with other groups to widen its impact and advocacy. Among its most valuable resources are the over 150 community health workers trained by Island Hospice who now assist nurses in their communities and carry out many home visits. Capacity building and training â&#x20AC;&#x201C; of everyone from medical professionals to eight-year-old child carers - has been one of the central pillars of the organisation since its establishment.

As well as providing medical care, and assisting with referrals for further treatment, Island Hospice provides a broad range of support for the people 120

Eco-Living Capacity building and training -of everyone from medical professionals to eight-year-old child carers- has been one of the central pillars of the organisation since its establishment.

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The Story of Island Hospice in Zimbabwe

it helps. This can include working with families to ensure that orphans and other vulnerable children receive adequate nutrition and remain in school, advising on the sensitive task of informing children of their HIV status, and providing all manner of longterm support and both group and individual counseling to help members of extended families take on the complex task of caring for children who have lost their parents to HIV, TB and other illnesses.

ISLAND HOSPICE:

Island Hospice is today entirely reliant on overseas donors and grants to carry out its work. Whereas in the past, local fundraising contributed a significant portion of the budget, the current economic climate has rendered the search for local sources of funding pointless for the time being.

hen the oldest of his four children was just nine years old, Mr Moyo died of Aids, leaving his very ill wife to bring up their children alone. Soon afterwards, and shortly after being referred to Island Hospice, Mrs Moyo also died from Aids and it was discovered that her four children were all HIV-positive. Following discussions with the children and their neighbours, Island Hospice discovered the whereabouts of an aunt who lived nearby and they initiated the complex process of encouraging her to care for her orphaned nieces and nephews.

The organisation’s excellent reputation and proven track record of service delivery have made them one of the most trusted and respected implementing partners for international donors seeking to bring medical supplies and training to Zimbabwe’s desperate communities.

Examples of Island Hospice’s recent international supporters include the

STORIES FROM THE FIELD The Moyo Family’s Story

W

At first, their aunt was reluctant to take the children in, but a home visit and several counselling sessions from Island Hospice gave her the chance to learn more about HIV, overcome her fear of living with HIVpositive children, and gain an understanding of the importance of keeping the four orphaned siblings together. She agreed to care for the children in her home, and, despite the many challenges the family has since faced, the aunt has continued to attend counselling sessions on child development, the trauma of losing both parents and the challenge of nurturing bereaved children. Island Hospice is now setting up a guardian support group in the area, which she is planning to join.

Supporting Island Hospice is a way for people around the world to show they have not forgotten the plight of Zimbabwe’s most vulnerable people, without the risk of donations being misused or lost.

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Eco-Living Today the four children are all doing well, and living together in a caring family environment. Without the involvement of Island Hospice, the scenario could have been very different. The aunt would probably not have received the information and support she needed to welcome the children into her home, the siblings would have probably been separated and, without adequate care, their health and emotional well-being would have rapidly deteriorated. Because Island Hospice recognises the enormous demands placed on the adults who step in as guardians to care for Zimbabwe’s overwhelming numbers of orphans, the organisation recognises that the key to creating stability for vulnerable children is to address the psychological and emotional needs of these guardians.

Patience’s Story, aged 13 atience was only four years old when she lost her mother to HIV/Aids in 2000. When her father died in 2004, her younger brother and her moved from Bulawayo to Harare in order to live with their widowed aunt and cousins. Her aunt became concerned when Patience appeared sickly, and, when she was just ten, a test confirmed that she too was HIV-positive.

P

Over the following years, her aunt worried constantly about how and when to let Patience know about her HIV status. The Island Hospice social worker explored different options with her and advised on how to tell Patience of the news. Individual counselling sessions with Patience and her aunt enabled the child to be given the information in a sensitive way, as well as providing support for the entire family.

Patience was upset, but relieved to know the truth - as she had already suspected her condition. With Island Hospice’s support, she is now able to consider treatment options and joined a Children’s Group that works with children affected by HIV/Aids. The Children’s Group, which is run by Island Hospice, provides children living with HIV/Aids with a chance to share their experiences and fears with others in similar situations. The children who attend these sessions can also be regularly monitored by Island Hospice staff, allowing them to keep an eye on their health, nutrition and other factors, such as whether they are attending school. Patience is fortunate to have found a supportive relative to care for her and her brother after the loss of her parents.

With the help of Island Hospice, Patience does not have to face the future alone.

Tinashe’s Story, aged 10 hen Tinashe’s mother died in 2000 of meningitis, with suspected HIV, he went to live with his paternal grandmother in a rural village. In the meantime, his father remarried and had two further children. When it became clear that his grandmother was not able to care for Tinashe, and he was becoming sickly, his father decided to bring him back to live with him and his new family. Not long afterwards, the father informed the Island Hospice social worker that he suspected that Tinashe was being mistreated and deprived of food, by his new wife. He also requested that Tinashe be tested for HIV. He was found to be positive.

W

When the social worker held individual sessions with Tinashe, he found him to be in extremely poor health and very emotionally withdrawn. A paediatrician confirmed that he was severely malnourished and needed to be hospitalised for observation.

Island Hospice also discussed the situation with his stepmother, who explained her concerns about her own children, as well as the shortage of money and food the family faces as a result of Tinashe’s father’s unemployment. Following the discussions, Island Hospice developed and tailored a formal care plan for the entire family, which included monthly food packs as well Tinashe’s regular attendance at an Island Hospice children’s clinic.

Tinashe’s story demonstrates the complexity of problems which take root when families are affected

by HIV/Aids, in combination with poverty and unemployment. His story also demonstrated how vulnerable children can easily become forgotten children. Island Hospice gave Tinashe’s father somewhere to turn to with his concerns about his son, and has offered Tinashe and his family a vital lifeline to see them through a very difficult period of transition.

Tinashe has now been brought back to full nutrition, and his relationship with his stepmother is much improved: in fact she is the one who usually brings him to the clinic.

TO DONATE MONEY TO ISLAND HOSPICE, PLEASE VISIT THE GLOBAL GIVING UK WEBSITE, WHICH FEATURES ISLAND HOPSICE AS ONE OF THE FUNDRAISING PROJECTS: www.globalgiving.co.uk/ac/ctry00zimbab1.html

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UK Department for International Development, Direct Relief International-USA, the STARS Foundation, and the Diana, Princess of Wales Memorial Fund.

Alongside traditional grants, Island Hospice is now seeking more private donations – both large and small – to help them to extend their services to more families. Island Hospice’s decades of experience, dedicated staff, trusted partners, and stable infrastructure means that, regardless of the unstable situation in Zimbabwe, every dollar entrusted to them translates into real, on-the-ground support to those in desperate need.

Supporting Island Hospice is a way for people around the world to show they have not forgotten the plight of Zimbabwe’s most vulnerable people, without the risk of donations being misused or lost. Through Island Hospice it is possible to make a real difference regardless of the political situation.

Along with everyone else in the country, Island Hospice was hard hit by hyperinflation, which decimated the value of funds and made everyday expenses such as fuel and medications prohibitively expensive.

Operations should now benefit from the fact that the government recently made both the US dollar and South African rand legal tender in Zimbabwe, and abandoned the printing of the local currency.

Other obstacles which have affected Island Hospice’s work include the recent ban on feeding programmes – in keeping with the official line that there is no hunger in Zimbabwe, despite World Food Programme estimates that at least 45% of the population is malnourished.

This made it difficult to include the provision of food and nutritional supplements, which have become a key element in Island Hospice’s basic

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The organisation employs 15 full-time staff - including nurses, social workers and pharmacists – and actively cares for approximately 3,000 people at any one time.

Through training, capacity building, networking, community partnering and direct service, Island Hospice Service provides: Palliative care and support, primarily at home and also in hospital, A comprehensive therapeutic service for the bereaved, Orphaned and vulnerable children’s support, Research into palliative and bereavement programmes.

Capacity building and training - of everyone from medical professionals to eight-year-old child carers Programmes are primarily focused on the following four areas: Community based palliative care Orphaned and vulnerable children’s support, Palliative care capacity building and training programme, Research into palliative and bereavement programmes.

care. In many cases, it is the promise of a meal that encourages children to attend clinics and training sessions, where they also receive vital information, treatment and supplies.

The overall volatility of the political climate can make it difficult for some people to attend clinics, and has at times hindered the ability of Island Hospice staff to carry out their regular duties.

But, remarkably, and thanks to its dedicated staff and overseas supporters, the organisation continues to provide vital services, and even launch and expand programmes, despite the staggering economic, political and healthcare deterioration facing Zimbabwe.

One challenge that is ever-present is finding the resources needed for Island Hospice to care for the increasing numbers of people, especially children, in need.

Looking to the Future Island Hospice is optimistic that change will come to Zimbabwe and the country will begin to recover and rebuild – but this will take time, and the people currently living in illness, isolation and loss need assistance.

The next few years will present many more opportunities for Island Hospice to continue to creatively develop programmes to address the growing and evolving needs of the communities it serves.

Zimbabwe has the highest mortality rate in the world. The one thing that is certain is that there is no chance that the workload for Island Hospice will diminish in the foreseeable future.

The organisation’s plan is to consolidate and roll-out its services, diversify its sources of support, and identify new avenues for providing care, in order to bring hope to as many people as possible.

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Eco-Living

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THE WE BOOK REVIEW Peace Parks

Conservation and Conflict resolution Edited by Ali Saleem and foreword by Julia Marton- Lefevre

Peace Parks, edited by Saleem H. Ali, explores what was called Environmental Peacemaking in a 2003 anthology of that name.

Ali begins with a collection of scholarly essays written by a total of thirtyâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;one authors, with an introduction that defines "peace parks" as environment conservation zones "that can play an instrumental role in peacemaking or sustaining amity between communities".

Ali asks, is there a natural connection between ecology and peace?

Its analyses and case studies of transboundary peace parks focus on how the sharing of physical space and management responsibilities can build and sustain peace among countries. This book offers case studies, strategic guidance, practical advice, and idealism. With contributors from a variety of disciplines and diverse geographic regions, Peace Parks is not only a groundbreaking book in International Relations but a valuable resource for policy makers and environmentalists.

Forecast

The Consequences of Climate Change, from the Amazon to the Arctic, from Darfur to Napa Valley

By Stephan Faris

Told through the narratives of current, past, and future events, the result of astonishingly wide travel and

reporting. Forecast is a powerful, gracefully written, eye opening account of this most urgent issue and how it has altered and it will alter our world.

Forecast's great strength is in recognizing that while climate change is a serious stressor, it is just one more factor in the complex interplay of social, economic and political influences on a community.

Stephan Faris's engaging, thoroughly researched reportage takes first-hand examples from Mexico to Bengal, Canada to Russia.

He elegantly negotiates the tricky line between the personal and political, and in doing so provides a more accurate and powerful warning about the perils of climate change than many other books in the genre.

Environmental Governance

Power and Knowledge in a local-global world Edited by Gabriela KĂźtting, Ronnie Lipschutz

This edited collection makes a highly significant critical contribution to the field of environmental politics.

It argues that the international-level, institutionalist approach to global environmental politics has run its course, employed solely by powerful actors in order to orchestrate and manipulate local communities within a continuing hegemonic system.

The outstanding international line-up of contributors to this volume explore the real advances that are being made in the areas were the local and global intersect and how power fits into the equation.

They explore the relationship between governance, 125

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Book Review

power and knowledge, using power as the main analytical tool. The contributors adopt a variety of approaches and perspectives – some starting from the local level and shifting upward to the global, and some using a global perspective that narrows down to the local.

Some chapters explore specific case studies and others employ a more conceptual framework – but all of them bring a new dimension to the relationship between power and knowledge in environmental governance. Power here is explored in all its guises – from relational to structural power.

An important and timely exploration of a topic at the forefront of global debate, Environmental Governance is essential reading for all students of global environmental politics, international political economy and international relations.

Asia, America and the Transformation of Geopolitics

By William H Overholt

American security and prosperity now depend on Asia. William H. Overholt offers an iconoclastic analysis of developments in each major Asian country, Asian international relations, and U.S. foreign policy.

Drawing on decades of political and business experience, he argues that obsolete Cold War attitudes tie the U.S. increasingly to an otherwise isolated Japan and obscure the reality that a U.S.-Chinese bicondominium now manages most Asian issues.

Military priorities risk polarizing the region unnecessarily, weaken the economic relationships that engendered American preeminence, and ironically enhance Chinese influence. As a result, despite its Cold War victory, U.S. influence in Asia is declining.

Overholt disputes the argument that democracy promotion will lead to superior development and peace, and forecasts a new era in which Asian geopolitics could take a drastically different shape. Covering Japan, China, Russia, Central Asia, India, Pakistan, Korea, and South-East Asia, Overholt offers invaluable insights for scholars, policymakers, business people, and general readers.

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Design for Sustainability

A Sourcebook of Integrated, Eco-logical Solutions

by Janis Birkeland

In a crucial transition from short term environmental management to long term systems design, ecological principles and concepts are becoming increasingly integrated into our everyday lives, influencing where and how we live.

Design for Sustainability is an inspiring, radical and detailed collection of the eco-solutions that can be applied to a range of design challenges.

The ideas on offer integrate social, political and economic factors, and promise a substantial reduction of resource use.

Their application not only benefits the environment but also improves overall quality of life, raising standards of health and bringing about greater social and environmental equity. Soon buildings could emulate nature, purifying air and water, generating energy, producing food and treating sewage.

The sourcebook presents examples of integrated systems design by many of the foremost designers in the fields of industrial design, materials, housing design, urban planning and transport, landscape and permaculture, and energy and resource management.

They cut across traditional boundaries to move towards a new transdisciplinary approach to environmental and social problem solving. This invaluable reference and teaching resource for practitioners and academics includes informational boxes, sets of questions and useful exercises, and pairs of short readings providing diverse perspectives to compare, contrast and debate.

Three Cups of Tea One Man's Mission to Promote Peace...

One School at a Time

by Greg Mortenson and David Oliver Relin

The inspiring account of one man’s campaign to build schools in the most dangerous, remote, and antiAmerican reaches of Asia In 1993 Greg Mortenson was the

Eco-Living exhausted survivor of a failed attempt to ascend K2, an American climbing bum wandering emaciated and lost through Pakistan’s Karakoram Himalaya. After he was taken in and nursed back to health by the people of an impoverished Pakistani village, Mortenson promised to return one day and build them a school. From that rash, earnest promise grew one of the most incredible humanitarian campaigns of our time, Greg Mortensons oneman mission to counteract extremism by building schools, especially for girls, throughout the breeding ground of the Taliban. Award-winning journalist David Oliver Relin has

collaborated on this spellbinding account of Mortensons incredible accomplishments in a region where Americans are often feared and hated. In pursuit of his goal, Mortenson has survived kidnapping, fatwa’s issued by enraged mullahs, repeated death threats, and wrenching separations from his wife and children. But his success speaks for itself. At last count, his Central Asia Institute had built fifty-five schools. "Three Cups of Tea" is at once an unforgettable adventure and the inspiring true story of how one man really is changing the world one school at a time.

THE WE QUIZ ANSWERS 1) A, 33 percent. The rapid climate change that is currently

5) C, $0.45. Slum Dwellers in many developing coun-

happening (significantly faster than previously predicted), is creating more intense storms and floods, landslides and tropical cyclones that are becoming more frequent, as well as the significantly noticeable increase in temperatures that will eventually cause sea water levels to rise due to the melting mountain glaciers and parts of the Greenland ice sheet, this would threaten river delta areas, home to more than 1 billion people and destroying 33 percent of crops.

tries, from Peru to India to Indonesia pay far more for water than wealthier people. The well to do get government subsidized water from metered connections while the poor must buy it from trucks that regularly drive through shantytowns and haul brimming jerry cans home.

2) B, 47 percent. The Tibetan plateau in Asia’s principal source of drinking water, feeding 10 of its major rivers and providing water for nearly half the world’s population. Glaciers in the area, which feed rivers, are melting at unprecedented rates, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts 80 percent of Himalayan glaciers will be gone by 2035. With more than one fourth of China classified as desert, the geopolitical implications could be ugly.

3) C, 527,000. The World Health Organization estimates that 527,000 women in the developing world died in 2000 from maternal causes. Almost all of these deaths occurred in Africa and Asia; India alone suffered 136,000 deaths. The lifetime risk of maternal death is 1 in 61 for women in the developing world, 1 in 2,800 for women in more developed countries.

4) C, 37. As populations grow and societies become wealthier, water consumption swells, leading many to predict that the future will be filled with conflicts over water. There is reason for optimism, however. In the past 60 years, some 400 international water agreements have been signed, compared with 37 documented violent clashes between countries over water, according to researchers at Oregon State University.

6) B. The National Audubon Society released a new "State of the Birds" report on Birds and Climate Change, analysis reveals statistical correlation between annual species location and temperature fluctuations causing an ecological disruption. In the last 40 years the winter ranges of the 305 bird species observed during Christmas Bird Counts have shifted northward by an average of 35 miles.

7) A, 1 IN 6.

An estimated 1.1 billion people do not have access to safe drinking water, nearly two-thirds of whom are in Asia. Over large parts of the world, humans have inadequate access to potable water and use sources contaminated with disease vectors, pathogens or unacceptable levels of dissolved chemicals or suspended solids. Such water is not potable and drinking or using such water in food preparation leads to widespread acute and chronic illness and is a major cause of death in many countries.

8) B, 1 billion. According to UNICEF's latest statistics, nearly 93 million children of primary school age worldwide do not attend school, including about 41 million in sub-Saharan Africa, 31.5 million in South Asia, and 6.9 million in Middle East and North Africa. Less than one per cent of what the world spent every year on weapons was needed to put every child into school by the year 2000 and yet it didn’t happen.

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WORLD ENVIRONMENT

F U T U R E E N V I R O N M E N TA L E V E N T S

October 2009 27 The Energy Exchange Conference: www.theenergyexchangeconference.com Tunis-Tunisia 28 Trade, Urbanization and the Environment: www.tradeurbanizationenvironment.com Beijing-China 29 ICESE 2009 - International Conference on Environmental Systems Engineering: www.waset.org I Venice-Italy

November 2009

March 2010 01 The first International Conference on Environmental Pollution, Restoration, and Management: www.vniceporm.com Ho Chi Minh-Vietnam 22 EU Sustainable Energy Week (EUSEW 2010): www.sustenergy.com I Brussels-Belgium 24 The Second International Conference on Integrated Water Resources Management and Challenges of Sustainable Development: www.fsa.ac.ma I Agadir-Morocco

April 2010 01 Recycling and Waste Management Saudi Arabia 2009: www.recexpo.com I Riyadh-Saudi Arabia 03 Global Dialogue 09: Responsibility-Climate Change as Challenge for Intercultural Inquiry Into Values: www.globaldialogueconference.org Aarhus-Denmark 24 State of Australian Cities 2009 www.promaco.com.au2009/soac I Perth-Australia

December 2009

06 IAIA10: Transitioning to the Green EconomyContributions of Impact Assessment: www.iaia.org I Geneva Switzerland 12 Project Qatar, Qatar Sustainability Conference: www.ifpqatar.com I Doha-Qatar 14 The Sustainable City 2010: Sixth International Conference on Urban Regeneration and Sustainability: www.wessex.ac.uk I La Coruna-Spain

May 2010 02 Green and Energy Efficient Buildings; Preparing for the Challenges of Copenhagen: www.theiet.org I London-United Kingdom 07 United Nations Climate Change Conference: www.cop15.dk I Copenhagen-Denmark 09 IMHE-2009. International Meeting Health and Environment: Challenges for the Future www.iss.itimhe-2009 I Rome-Italy 13 Ecocity 2009, Istanbul: www.ecocity2009.com Istanbul-Turkey

January 2010 03 International Conference on Technology & Sustainability in the Built Environment: www.capksu-conf.org I Riyadh-Saudi Arabia 18 World Future Energy Summit, www.worldfutureenergysummit.com Abu Dhabi-United Arab Emirates

February 2010 19 International Conference on Climate Change and Developing Countries: www.ceetindia.org Kottayam-India 25 The Third Annual Sustainability Summit, After Copenhagen; Facing the Climate Change Challenge: www.economistconferences.co.uk I London-United Kingdom 26 2010 International Conference on Forestry Applications and Development (CFAD 2010): www.iacsit.org I Singapore-Singapore

03 Project Near East Amman, Sustainability Week Conference: www.ifpgroup.net I Amman-Jordan 20 5th Annual International Symposium on Environment: www.atiner.gr I Athens-Greece 20 Green Solutions Conference 2010: www.gndays.com I Bangkok-Thailand

June 2010 01 Project Lebanon 2010; Sustainability Week Conference: www.ifpexpo.com I Beirut-Lebanon 05 Children and Youth International Conference Let's Take Care of the Planet: www.confint2010.mec.gov.br I Brasilia-Brasil

July 2010 05 Sustainable Tourism 2010; Fourth International Conference on Sustainable Tourism: www.wessex.ac.uk I New Forest-United Kingdom 12 Sustainable Architecture and Urban Planning Conference: www.csaar.com I Amman-Jordan

August 2010 25 ICEST 2010: International Conference on Ecological Science and Technology: www.waset.org Singapore-Singapore

September 2010 14 Fifth International Conference on Prevention, Assessment, Rehabilitation and Development of Brownfields Sites: www.wessex.ac.uk Algarve-Portugal

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