Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea Arben Mullai&&Proprietary Patrick Donner Confidential to GfK Healthcare, 2010
2011
Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
Contents 2
1 Introduction 2 Risk Ri k Analysis A l i 3 Final Remarks
Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
Introduction
Background g − Baltic Sea Region: semi-enclosed, brackish, shallow, low
degradation, PSSA (62 areas), 85 m people, inter-modal link
− Oil transport: >2000 2000 large l ships, hi estimated i d 140 million illi tons, 2007 − Risks: Literature review - oil spills detection and identification, studies confined to individual countries or areas and a few case studies
− Purpose: enhance understanding of the oil spill risks Methods and Material − The concept of risk: ΣR = Σf(C, F, E) − Helcom H l d b database (1988-2009) (1988 2009) − SOS database (6329 cases, 90 variables, 1985-2010) − Other, Other e.g. e g 1971 and 1992 Funds incidents Risk analysis process
3
Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
Ship movements, excluding ferry traffic, in the Baltic Sea f forecasted t d ffor 2015 4
(Source: Rytkรถnen et al. 2002)
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Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
Flights and confirmed oil spills by country (1988-2009) (1988 2009) 5
6000
700
5000
600 4000
500 400
3000
300
2000
Number of flights N
200 1000
100 0
0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Num mber of co onfirmed o oil spills
800
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Lithuania
Latvia
Poland
Russia
Sweden
Number of flights
Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
Confirmed oil spills by country (1988-2009) (1988 2009) 6
Germany 13%
Poland 10%
Denmark 13%
Finland 8%
Estonia 4%
Russia 3%
Other 7% Sweden 45%
Latvia 3%
Lithuania 1%
Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
Oil Spills and Causes Major oil spills in the Baltic Sea by location Other 28%
Immediate causes of major oil spills Other 13%
Sweden 48%
Grounding 56%
Denmark 24%
Other 6.6%
Unknown Environ 5.6% ment 5.9% Technical Human 21.0% 60.9%
The main categories of causes
Collision 31%
Own ship 73.9%
Other 5.8% Unknown 5.6% Outside own ship 14.7%
Internal and external causes
Environ o ment 5.9% Other ship 7.3% Condition outside ship 1.5%
7
Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
1 600
900
1 400
800 700
1 200
600
1 000
500
800
400
600
300
400
200
200
100 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 4 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
8
Numb ber of co onfirmed d oil spills
Amo ount of confirme ed spillss (tons)
Amounts and numbers of oil spills in BSR by year (1988-2009) (1988 2009)
Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
Amounts of oil spills (2005 (2005-2009) 2009) 9
Amounts of oil spills p in m3 <1m3
1-10 m3 10-100 m3
>100 m3
Unknown
Total
2005
177
16
4
2
25
224
2006
204
18
2
1
11
236
2007
199
9
4
0
26
238
2008
182
10
0
0
18
210
2009
168
7
1
0
2
178
T t l Total
930
60
11
3
82
1086
Mean
186
12
2.2
0.6
16.4
217.2
0.926
0.060
0.011
0.003
Probability
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Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
Claims of major oil spills paid by 1971 &1992 Funds 10
Environmental damage 5% Clean-up 85%
Fishery 4% Indemnification 4% Economic/ Property loss 2%
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Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
Relation between amounts of major oil spills and claims 11
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Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
F-N F N curve of oil spill risks (in tons) (1979-2003) (1979 2003) 12
Accu umulativve freque ency perr year
1 000,00 100,00 , 10,00 1,00 0,10 0,01 1
10
100
1 000
Amount of oil spills (tons)
10 000
100 000
Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
F-N F N curves of oil spill (1-100 (1 100 m3) risks by year (1988-2009) (1988 2009) 13
Accumu ulative fre equency per yearr
1000
100
10
1 1 1988
10 2009
Amount of oil spills (tons)
100
Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
F-N F N curve of major oil spill risks (1988-2009) (1988 2009) 14
Accu umulativve frequency pe er year
10
1
01 0,1
0,01 100
1 000
10 000
Amount in US $ (x1000)
100 000
Mullai & Donner
Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea
2011
15 SM
GfK Healthcare Sweden Arben Mullai Tel. +46 (0) 46 35 07 83 arben.mullai@gfk.com