WHERE DID
SHOPPER GO? It’s not so simple as trading down to the dollar channel. NEW REPORT FROM WSL /STRATEGIC RETAIL
CURRENT DATA + TRENDED + ACTIONABLE + PREDICTIVE
whether Walmart is your biggest customer or biggest competitor
you need to understand
MYTH
1
Recession or Not, I’m going to Shop. Walmart’s core shopper is gone. Not so. The core Walmart shopper is still there, going even more often, and relying on Walmart now more than ever... but its core shopper is not enough.
and what does a
post Walmart world look like for you This report debunks several myths surrounding the decline in Walmart’s US sales, and gives you an action plan for a post-Walmart world.
MYTH
2
The core Walmart shopper drives the company’s sales. Unlikely. The core Walmart shopper can’t pull Walmart out of this hole. They are less than half of all its shoppers, and they don’t have enough money to spend to reverse the decline.
MYTH
6
Walmart shoppers have less to spend. Yes, especially its core shoppers. The more affluent shoppers, who are rarely in Walmart, didn’t find enough reason to stay.
MYTH
5
The “nicer shopping experience” has damaged Walmart. Not exactly. Overall, the improved Walmart shopping experience gets good reviews from shoppers – at least from the half who noticed.
So now what?
Without EDLP, what does Walmart stand for? Is the passion for Walmart over? Is Walmart now just another store?
MYTH
4
Walmart stands for EDLP.
MYTH
3
Walmart shoppers are now
Not anymore. Walmart used to own the low price message, but its competitors shouted “low price” during the recession, and shoppers listened. (Which is why you can’t blame all Walmart’s woes on Dollar stores.
in Dollar Stores. Don’t blame it all on Dollar stores. Every channel is doing its part to undo Walmart.
® REPORT S P O H S AMERICA THIS HOW LD ART WOR M L A W T S PO YOU IN A R O F S P E ST 8 ACTION S E D U L C IN
CONTACT US 307 SEVENTH AVENUE SUITE 1707 NEW YORK NY 10001 T 212.924.7780 F 212.924.7608 E INFO@WSLSTRATEGICRETAIL.COM
HOW AMERICA SHOPS® WHERE DID THE
GO?
METHODOLOGY Internet survey; conducted April ‘11. Nationwide sample of 1500 adults BY YZED L A N A
»» Total »» Men and Women »» Income: under $25K, $25-$49K, $50K-$99K, $100K+ »» Age: 18-34, 35-54, 55+
A WALM
S
R CELL
OPPE RT SH
»» Frequent Shopper »» Occasional Shopper »» Rare Shopper
RIES
O CATEG DUCT
PRO
HEALTH & BEAUTY
Hand & Body Moisturizers Cosmetics (WOMEN ONLY) Fragrance (perfume, cologne, etc.) Hair care products Men’s grooming products OTC Medication Skin care products Lip care (to prevent dry, cracked, etc.) Vitamins/nutritional supplements
BABY
Baby personal care (lotions, soaps, etc.)
CLOTHING & FASHION
Active Wear Clothing Fashion accessories Shoes (casual, dressy, sandals) Sleepwear/ Loungewear/ Lingerie
HOME
Home décor (pillows, bedding, etc.) Home fragrance/candles
FOOD, BEVERAGE and GROCERY
Bottled water Breakfast cereal Candy Carbonated beverages/ soda Coffee (instant or ground) Dairy/milk/eggs Ice cream/yogurt Laundry household cleaners/ paper goods Organic/Natural foods Pet supplies Salty snacks (chips, pretzels) Tea
PRICING
REPORT / ADD-ON: WORKSHOP / PRESENTATION For more information or to order by credit card, please contact us at info@wslstrategicretail.com or 212.924.7780 (Businesses in NY state, please add 8.375% NY sales tax)
As retail strategists and shopping futurists, we are recognized for our ability to turn shopper insights into smart actionable strategies. Never before has this been so essential. So let us help you navigate this new shopping world. 307 SEVENTH AVENUE SUITE 1707 NEW YORK NY 10001 T 212.924.7780 F 212.924.7608 E INFO@WSLSTRATEGICRETAIL.COM
IN THIS REPORT 5 BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES 6 METHODOLOGY 8 HOW TO READ THIS REPORT 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 25 DETAILED FINDINGS ...
...
...
...
...
25 . . . Chapter 1: Where Did the Walmart Shopper Go? 29 . . . Chapter 2: The Walmart Shopper: Who Stayed, Who Left 35 . . . Chapter 3: Going Less, Spending Less, and Why 47 . . . Chapter 4: Where is the Walmart Shopper Going? 51 . . . Chapter 5: Walmart Shoppers in Dollar Stores 59 . . . Chapter 6: The Image Challenge to Walmart 65 . . . Chapter 7: The Impact of Walmart Store Changes 75 . . . Chapter 8: Choosing Walmart - Category by Category 81 . . . Chapter 9: The Economic (And Gas Pinch) Outlook for Walmart Shoppers
87
...
APPENDIX
WALMART SHOPPERS SHOPPING DOLLAR STORES A majority of Walmart shoppers (59%) shopped Dollar Stores in the past 3 months. PROPORTION OF WALMART SHOPPERS SHOPPING DOLLAR STORE
WALMART/ NOT DOLLAR SHOPPER
41%
59%
WALMART/ DOLLAR SHOPPER
(PAST 3 MONTH SHOPPERS)
74% of Walmart shoppers are in Dollar Stores at least once a month. 49% are there several times a month. That’s a lot of cross-shopping, and shows how important the Dollar channel is to Walmart shoppers. Frequent Walmart shoppers shop all stores more often, and that holds true for Dollar Stores, too. • 82% of Frequent Walmart shoppers shop Dollar Stores each month. • Two-thirds of Occasional and Rare Walmart shoppers are also in Dollar Stores every month, but fewer of them go weekly (18%-19%). WALMART SHOPPERS: SHOPPING FREQUENCY AT DOLLAR STORES TOTAL Walmart Shoppers
52
HOW AMERICA SHOPS ®
Where did the Walmart Shopper Go? © WSL STRATEGIC RETAIL 2011
SHOPPING FREQUENCY FREQUENT OCCASIONAL
RARE
Base: Past 3 Month Dollar Store Shoppers
845 A %
(Once a Week or More) 396 B %
(2-3 Times a Month) 203 C %
(Once a Month or Less) 224 D %
% of Total Walmart Shoppers
59
65
59
52
Shop Dollar Stores - Monthly or More
74
82 DE
68
67
- Once a week or more often
22
27 CD
18
19
- Once every 2 to 3 weeks
27
28
27
25
- Once a month
25
27
23
23
Shop Dollar Stores - Less Than Once A Month
26
18
32 B
33 B
- Once every 2 to 3 months
16
12
19 B
20 B
- Once every 4 to 6 months
5
4
6
6
- Less often than every 6 months
5
2
7B
7B
GOING MORE TO DOLLAR STORES 41% of Walmart shoppers are shopping Dollar Stores more now than a few years ago, for a net change of +24 ppts. • Interestingly, it is the Rare Walmart shoppers who are going more often since the downturn. The net change for Frequent and Occasional Walmart shoppers is +19 ppts vs. +34 ppts among Rare shoppers. CHANGES IN SHOPPING FREQUENCY AT DOLLAR TOTAL Walmart Shoppers
SHOPPING FREQUENCY FREQUENT
OCCASIONAL (2-3 Times a Month) 203 C %
(Once a Month or Less) 224 D %
RARE
Base: Past 3 Month Dollar Store Shoppers
845 A %
(Once a Week or More) 396 B %
% of Total Walmart Shoppers
59
65
59
52
- More often
41
39
41
44
- Less often
17
20 D
22 D
10
- About the same
42
41
37
46
Net Change
+24
+19
+19
+34
Go to Dollar vs. a few years ago…
SPENDING MORE AT DOLLAR STORES 37% of Walmart shoppers are spending more at Dollar Stores compared to a few years ago. Half as many, 20%, are spending less, for an overall net change of +17 ppts. • Again, Rare Walmart shoppers show a higher positive net change in spending at Dollar. This, along with their going to Mass Merchandisers and Supermarkets, as well as Dollar means Walmart appears to be losing more of this shopper. CHANGES IN SPENDING AT DOLLAR TOTAL Walmart Shoppers
SHOPPING FREQUENCY FREQUENT
OCCASIONAL (2-3 Times a Month)
(Once a Month or Less)
(Once a Week or More)
RARE
Base: Past 3 Month Dollar Store Shoppers
845 A %
396 B %
203 C %
224 D %
% of Total Walmart Shoppers
59
65
59
62
Spending at Dollar stores vs. a few years ago… - More often - Less often - About the same
37 20 43
36 23 D 41
35 21 D 44
37 13 50 B
Net Change
+17
+13
+14
+24 HOW AMERICA SHOPS ®
Where did the Walmart Shopper Go? © WSL STRATEGIC RETAIL 2011
53