The modeling scenarios in a nutshell

THE MODELLING SCENARIOS IN A NUTSHELL

Three scenarios – Base Case, Increased Renewable Scenario and Advanced Renewable Scenario – were developed for the period 2021-2050. To compare the ambition with Myanmar’s national plans (including NDC), the results at 2030 are highlighted.

Base Case refers to the mostly business-as-usual scenario of the NDC. With a higher percentage of coal, gas and hydropower (33%, 21% and 30% respectively), it projects limited inclusion of new renewables (9%) in the national mix by 2030. The Base Case will also serve as the baseline for analyses on LCOE, emissions and energy security.

Increased Renewable Scenario (IRS) aims to remove coalfired power from the generation mix and reduce reliance on gas and hydropower (12% and 9% respectively). IRS also increased solar, wind and other forms of Variable Renewable Energy sources (VRE) (14%, 8% and 23%) while introducing green hydrogen (33%) by 2050.

Advanced Renewable Scenario (ARS) is developed with the assumption that renewable energy technologies develop faster than IRS. ARS is inspired by the development of the Electric Vehicles (EV) sector which is developing more rapidly than experts projected a decade ago. ARS expects faster and cheaper improvements in green hydrogen (43%) while wind, solar and VRE occupy 12%, 13% and 23% respectively. ARS proves that Myanmar can develop with 100% renewable energy by 2050.

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