Base case results

4 BASE CASE RESULTS

The following results discuss the Base case outlook and the various baseline metrics from which to evaluate the IRS and ARS results. The important baseline measures include the capacity mix over time, renewable energy generation and emission levels, capital cost requirements and overall levelized cost of energy, and level of hydro development.

4.1 CAPACITY AND GENERATION OUTLOOK

The capacity and generation outlook (Figure 15, Figure 16, Figure 17 and Figure 18) can be split into two periods of time: the period to 2030 and 2031 through to 2050.

z Period to 2030: This period is characterized by committed CCGT and hydro developments in the earlier years followed by coal-fired capacity to meet increasing demands from 2025 to 2030. Solar development is limited to the known solar project pipeline. By 2030 there is a total of 8.8GW of hydro.

„ The Base case has been modelled strictly in line with the NDC baseline to 2030 as shown in Figure 19.

z From 2030: No further coal-fired power stations are developed and a mixture of domestic and LNG-based CCGTs and peaking gas units (25GW in total) are developed to meet most of the increasing demands to 2050. The peaking gas capacity developments help support up to 8GW of solar developed by 2050. Gas generation contributes 55% of system generation by 2050, solar at 15%, coal at 15% and the remainder met by hydro generation.

Figure 15. System-wide Capacity Outlook

Figure 16. System-wide Capacity Share (Snapshot Years)

Figure 17. System-wide Generation Outlook

Figure 18. System-wide Generation Share (Snapshot Years)

Figure 19. Capacity Outlook Compared to the NDC Scenarios

Note: RE (Others) refers to solar.

The Base case modelled is consistent with the NDC BAU modelling outlook. The build outlook is similar for coal and hydro with minor differences in renewables and gas build.

4.2 REGIONAL SUPPLY MIX AND FLOWS

Discussed in Section 5.2.

4.3 DISPATCH PROFILES

Discussed in Section 5.3.

4.4 EMISSION LEVELS

Total emissions and the system intensity are plotted in Figure 20 below. Total emissions increase from 2024 with the introduction of newly developed coal projects which has significantly higher emissions than existing gas and hydro generation. By 2030, the level of emissions continues to increase notably due to demand growth, but the intensity reduces as gas and solar generation share increases to 2050.

Figure 20. Total Emissions and Emissions Intensity (Grid)

4.5 TECHNOLOGY AND SYSTEM COSTS

The following charts, Figure 21, Figure 22 and Figure 23, plot the cumulative capital requirements, annual system costs and corresponding levelized cost of energy. The charts also break down the costs by component. The following observations can be made:

z Approximately US$40 billion in capital cost is required to the period to 2030, mainly driven by the coal and hydro build over this time frame. The following period to 2050 only requires US$50 billion. Generation followed by distribution costs comprise the two largest system cost segments.

z Annual system cost linearly increases to US$23 billion per annum corresponding to increasing demands and is driven by increasing fuel costs over time. On a levelized basis, the system cost reduces over time with shrinking generator capex, off-grid and network costs. Although there is an increasing solar share, the increase in gas generation costs more than offset this. By 2035, the LCOE reduces below US$100/MWh.

Figure 21. Cumulative Capital Costs

Figure 22. Annual System Costs

Note: VOM = Variable Operations and Maintenance costs, FOM = Fixed Operations and Maintenance costs

Figure 23. Levelised Cost of Energy by Component