4 BASE CASE RESULTS The following results discuss the Base case outlook and the various baseline metrics from which to evaluate the IRS and ARS results. The important baseline measures include the capacity mix over time, renewable energy generation and emission levels, capital cost requirements and overall levelized cost of energy, and level of hydro development.
4.1 CAPACITY AND GENERATION OUTLOOK The capacity and generation outlook (Figure 15, Figure 16, Figure 17 and Figure 18) can be split into two periods of time: the period to 2030 and 2031 through to 2050. zz
Period to 2030: This period is characterized by committed CCGT and hydro developments in the earlier years followed by coal-fired capacity to meet increasing demands from 2025 to 2030. Solar development is limited to the known solar project pipeline. By 2030 there is a total of 8.8GW of hydro.
zz
The Base case has been modelled strictly in line with the NDC baseline to 2030 as shown in Figure 19.
From 2030: No further coal-fired power stations are developed and a mixture of domestic and LNG-based CCGTs and peaking gas units (25GW in total) are developed to meet most of the increasing demands to 2050. The peaking gas capacity developments help support up to 8GW of solar developed by 2050. Gas generation contributes 55% of system generation by 2050, solar at 15%, coal at 15% and the remainder met by hydro generation.
Figure 15. System-wide Capacity Outlook
Figure 16. System-wide Capacity Share (Snapshot Years)
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