Transit Oriented Development Potential Study of Philadelphia
University of Pennsylvania,School of Design
GIS503 Final Project Fall 2011 Xinlin Huang
Rung-Er Jang
Lu Yao
I. Introduction & Intend `
Transit Oriented Development (TOD) promotes dense, walkable and mix-used communities around the transit nodes. Compared to the low-density suburban sprawls in US cities, TOD provides a life style choice that involves more walking, biking and human contact, with higher energy efficiency and embraces the diverse and vibrant nature of urban living. Under the pressing global warming issue and ever- increasing petrol price, TOD has been included by many Ameri-
can cities as the solution towards those problems. And because of the recently- increased popularity of urban life styles among young Americans, TOD has been adopted by many real-estate developers as the market’s demand. Our study aims at evaluating the TOD potential for Philadelphia’s major transit nodes areas, and identifying the most eligible stations for future TOD. Philadelphia is a city with a successful public transit system. The city has a relatively stable source
SEPTA provides subway, light rail and bus service for the city. Source: www.septa.org
of public transit riders and sound transit infrastructures. The current public transit system of the city consists of subway, regional rails, light rails, buses, inter-urban high speed lines. Among the city’s many transit nodes, we select subway stations as the subject of our study. We believe the subway stations have the ability to generate passenger traffic that enables condensed economic and social activities and support a successful TOD.
Philadelphia’s Public Transit System Source: www.septa.org
The city’s subway line has high capacity, high speed and a large service area. According the SPETA ( South-eastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority)’s Operating Facts Report Fiscal Year 2011, the ridership of the city’s subway system is 63,177,000 passenger miles, which is the second largest running after bus and light rail system’s 106,516,600 passenger miles. However, the city has
52 subway stations but 8,074 bus/ light rail stations. Therefore the actual passenger attraction of subway stations is stronger than bus/light rail stations. Besides, the subway station areas very often are where the buses and light rail stations clustered, which means subway stations areas actually generate more passenger than subway stations.
Transit Oriented Development Potential Study of Philadelphia
University of Pennsylvania,School of Design
GIS503 Final Project Fall 2011 Xinlin Huang
II. Methodology
Subway Line and Station
I
Step One : Create TOD Study Zone
Lu Yao
Study Zone: Subway Station Buffer 400 Meters
I
Fern Rock Trans. Center Olney!
The city’s subway system consists of two subway lines: the MarketFrankford Line (Blue Line) and the Broad Street Line (Orange Line). The Blue Line runs from the east to the west end of the city, and the Orange Line connects the city from north to south. Subway stations are the “anchors” of this TOD potential study. The spaces around a subway stations are the study zones and the basic analysis units for this project. Each study zone is created by drawing a 400-meter buffer around subway station using ArcGIS. The 400-meter radius is decided basing on 10-minutes walking distance, which is the estimated commercial catchment area of a subway station.
Step Two : Select Criteria
Rung-Er Jang
! ! !
Fern Rock Trans. Center Olney!
Logan
Wyoming
!
Frankford Terminal
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Margaret/Orthodox
Hunting Park
!
!
!
Church
Tioga
!
Cecil B. Moore
Girard
Fairmount
!
!
Race-Vine
!
!
!
Girard
Spring Garden
Fairmount
Chinatown
Millbourne
Berks
!
Girard
!
!
!
!
Spring Garden
63rd60th
!
! 56th 52nd !69th St.!Terminal ! 46th ! 40th 34th ! ! 30th ! ! !
Race-Vine
!
Spring Garden
!
Chinatown
15th13th! !! ! ! !8th 5th 2nd ! ! City Hall11th ! Walnut-LocustLombard-South
!
Ellsworth-Federal
! !
!
Cecil B. Moore
15th13th! !! ! ! !8th 5th 2nd ! ! City Hall11th ! Walnut-LocustLombard-South
An ideal TOD site should be a destination, or is composed of many small destinations. And this is affected by the character of the study zones. The essences of TOD are dense population, vibrant economy, mixed land use pattern, walkable streets and a stable source of transit riders. In this project, we try to break these qualities into measurable social-economic criteria: population density, employment, income, house value, rent, current land use, walkability, and resident’s journey to work. We collected numeric data for most of the criteria above, and process and analysis them in ArcGIS. The detail of each criterion will be explained in following paragraphs.
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Somerset ! Huntingdon Susquehanna-DauphinYork-Dauphin !
Berks
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!
Spring Garden
Millbourne
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Allegheny
North Philadelphia
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! 63rd60th 56th 52nd !69th St.!Terminal ! 46th ! 40th 34th ! ! 30th ! ! !
Tioga
!
Girard
!
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Alleghney
!
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Erie/Torresdale
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Somerset ! Huntingdon Susquehanna-DauphinYork-Dauphin !
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Church
!
Erie
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Allegheny
North Philadelphia
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!
!
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Alleghney
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Margaret/Orthodox
Hunting Park
Erie/Torresdale
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Frankford Terminal
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Erie
Logan
Wyoming
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Tasker-Morris
Ellsworth-Federal
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Snyder
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Tasker-Morris
Snyder
Oregon
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Oregon
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Pattison
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Legend !
0 0.5
1
2
3
Miles 4
Legend
Pattison
!
SEPTA Subway Station
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SEPTA Subway Station
SEPTA-Market Frankford Line
SEPTA-Market Frankford Line
SEPTA-Broad Street Line
SEPTA-Broad Street Line
Regional Rail Lines
Regional Rail Lines Fairmount Park
Fairmount Park Hydrology
0 0.5
1
2
3
Miles 4
Hydrology Subway Station Buffer
Transit Oriented Development Potential Study of Philadelphia
University of Pennsylvania,School of Design
GIS503 Final Project Fall 2011 Xinlin Huang
Step Three : Collect Data, Analysis in ArcGIS The demographic data and “resident’s journey to work” data we obtained are at census tract level, and the land use data is at property parcel level. The numeric data comes from 2005-2009 American Community Survey(ACS), and spatial data comes from Pennsylvania Spatial Data Access (PASDA). These data were joined in to their spatial units using ArcGIS. The shapefiles generated in this step are later intersected with the 400-meter study zones, which are also drawn with ArcGIS. The next step is to rearrange the fragmented shapes and data into study zone by the “summarize” function of ArcGIS. The summarized data was exported into new shapefiles which are based on study zone units. At the end of this step, each study zone will has its own criteria set ready for next step’s analysis. The following maps and paragraphs are showing the detail information for each criterion and the state of study zones in each criterion.
Create TOD Study Zone
Select Criteria
Population Density, Employment, Income, House Value, Rent
Result & Conclusion
Lu Yao
Select transit lines and stations Create buffers as TOD study zones
Density & Prosperity:
Collect Data, Analysis in ArcGIS
Rung-Er Jang
TOD-supportive Environment:
Land Use & Walkability
Source of Ridership: Residents’ Journyto work
Create Criteria Set for Each Study Zone Assign Weights to different Criteria
Arrange TOD zones into 5 grades according to their final score, and map with different color Critique of Methodology
Transit Oriented Development Potential Study of Philadelphia
University of Pennsylvania,School of Design
GIS503 Final Project Fall 2011 Xinlin Huang
Fern Rock Trans. Center
Olney
Church
Erie Alleghney
Susquehanna-Dauphin
Somerset Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Cecil B. Moore Girard
56th 52nd
46th
40th
Race-Vine
34th 30th
Susquehanna-Dauphin
Girard Spring Garden
Chinatown
15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd 11th City Hall Walnut-LocustLombard-South
Population Ddensity Population Density Criteria from Low to High Subway Station Buffer
69th St. Terminal
63rd 60th
56th 52nd
Spring Garden 46th
40th
Race-Vine
34th 30th
4 5
56th 52nd
Spring Garden 46th
40th
Ellsworth-Federal Tasker-Morris
North Philadelphia
Cecil B. Moore
Subway Station Buffer 1 2
Snyder
3
Oregon
4 5
Patson��
Data Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey
Millbourne
63rd 60th
56th 52nd
Spring Garden 46th
40th
Spring Garden
Race-Vine Chinatown 15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd Walnut-Locust11th Lombard-SouthCity Hall
34th 30th
Ellsworth-Federal Tasker-Morris
Berks
Girard
Fairmount 69th St. Terminal
Allegheny
Somerset Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Girard
Median House Value House Value Criteria from Low to High
5
Median Rent Rent Criteria from Low to High Subway Station Buffer 1 2
Snyder
3
Oregon
4 5
Patson��
Density and Prosperity
Erie/Torresdale Tioga
Susquehanna-Dauphin
Girard
2
Church
Erie
Berks
Spring Garden
Race-Vine Chinatown 15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd Walnut-Locust11th Lombard-SouthCity Hall
34th 30th
Frankford Terminal Margaret/Orthodox
Alleghney
Allegheny
1
Fern Rock Trans. Center
Huntng Par k�
Somerset Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Fairmount 63rd 60th
Ellsworth-Federal Tasker-Morris
Patson��
Wyoming
Erie/Torresdale
Cecil B. Moore
15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd Walnut-Locust11th Lombard-SouthCity Hall
Median Family Income Income Criteria from High SubwayLow Station to Buffer
4
Patson��
Tioga
Girard
Spring Garden
Chinatown
Oregon
Margaret/Orthodox
North Philadelphia
Race-Vine
3
Church
Susquehanna-Dauphin
34th 30th
Oregon
Logan
Erie
40th
4
Frankford Terminal
Alleghney
46th
Snyder
Olney
Huntng Par k�
56th 52nd
3
Logan
Millbourne
2
63rd 60th
Snyder
Fern Rock Trans. Center
Wyoming
69th St. Terminal
1
69th St. Terminal
Spring Garden
5
Patson��
Olney
Empolyment Rate Employment Criteria from High SubwayLow Stationto Buffer
Tasker-Morris
3
Oregon
Chinatown
Millbourne
Berks
Girard
Fairmount
Ellsworth-Federal
2
Tasker-Morris Snyder
Cecil B. Moore
Spring Garden
Allegheny
Somerset Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Girard
15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd Walnut-Locust11th Lombard-SouthCity Hall
1
Ellsworth-Federal
Tioga
Susquehanna-Dauphin
Girard
Fairmount Millbourne
Alleghney
Berks
Cecil B. Moore
Berks
Erie/Torresdale
North Philadelphia
Somerset Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Girard
Fairmount 63rd 60th
Tioga Allegheny
North Philadelphia
Church
Erie
Erie/Torresdale
Alleghney
Tioga
Frankford Terminal Margaret/Orthodox
Huntng Par k�
Church
Erie
Allegheny
Wyoming
Margaret/Orthodox
Erie/Torresdale
North Philadelphia
69th St. Terminal
Frankford Terminal
Huntng Par k�
Margaret/Orthodox
Huntng Par k�
Logan
Wyoming
Frankford Terminal
Lu Yao
Fern Rock Trans. Center
Olney
Logan
Logan
Spring Garden
Fern Rock Trans. Center
Olney
Wyoming
Millbourne
Rung-Er Jang
High density indicates possible intensive economic and social activities. High value of employment and family income indicates high level of economic prosperity. High house value and gross rent indicates the desirability of land and future demand for land in the study zone. The combination of the features mentioned above is the indicator of business opportunities.
Transit Oriented Development Potential Study of Philadelphia
University of Pennsylvania,School of Design
GIS503 Final Project Fall 2011 Xinlin Huang
TOD-Supportive Zoning & Walkability
Rung-Er Jang
Lu Yao
Data Source: PASDA Website http://www.pasda.psu.edu/ Olney
Fern Rock Trans. Center Fern Rock Trans. Center
Olney
Logan Wyoming
Logan
Frankford Terminal
Wyoming
Margaret/Orthodox
Huntng Par k�
Huntng Par k�
Church
Erie
Erie/Torresdale
Alleghney
Church
Erie
Erie/Torresdale
Tioga Allegheny
North Philadelphia
Alleghney
Somerset
Susquehanna-Dauphin
Tioga
North Philadelphia
Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Susquehanna-Dauphin
Cecil B. Moore
Girard
Fairmount
Existing Land Use
Millbourne
63rd 60th
56th 52nd
Spring Garden 46th
40th
Ellsworth-Federal Tasker-Morris Snyder Oregon
Patson��
Girard
69th St. Terminal
Median House Value Land Use Criteria from Low to High
Subway Station Buffer 1 2 3 4
Millbourne
63rd 60th
56th 52nd
Spring Garden 46th
40th
34th 30th
Race-Vine
Spring Garden
Chinatown
15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd Walnut-Locust11th City Hall Lombard-South Ellsworth-Federal Tasker-Morris
Berks
Girard
Fairmount
Spring Garden
Race-Vine Chinatown 15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd Walnut-Locust11th Lombard-SouthCity Hall
34th 30th
Berks
Allegheny
Somerset Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Cecil B. Moore
Girard
69th St. Terminal
Frankford Terminal Margaret/Orthodox
Walkablity Walkability Criteria from Low to High
Subway Station Buffer 1 2
Snyder
3
Oregon
4
5
5 Patson��
TOD supportive-zoning are critical for TOD. Mixed use is desirable because it indicates existing TOD foundation and eliminates the potential cost of zoning change. Our general standard of scoring the land use favours residential-commercial mixed land use with a more than 25% residential proportion inside the study zone. A study zone that contains a single type of land use, such as the centre city district with only commer-
cial land, will be considered less desirable. Study zones like these might be already highly developed and are expensive to replace by other uses if a mixed land use is proposed. Study zones that contain industrial land use are also graded as less desirable. Those areas could be brown fields or current industrial use, which are less likely to become popular residential and commercial choice. Existing physical features greatly affect the potential
of TOD. An ideal TOD site should be walking-friendly. We assume that block size determines the level of walkability. By measuring the total length of streets in each study zone, we look for those with the highest value of aggregated street length which indicates smallest block size and a high level of walkability.
Transit Oriented Development Potential Study of Philadelphia
University of Pennsylvania,School of Design
GIS503 Final Project Fall 2011 Xinlin Huang
Rung-Er Jang
Fern Rock Trans. Center
Olney
Olney
Logan
Fern Rock Trans. Center
Olney
Frankford Terminal
Church
Erie
Susquehanna-Dauphin
Allegheny
56th 52nd
46th
40th
34th 30th
Race-Vine
63rd 60th
56th 52nd
Spring Garden 46th
40th
34th 30th
Race-Vine
Spring Garden
Chinatown
15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd Walnut-Locust11th Lombard-SouthCity Hall
Berks
Girard
Fairmount Spring Garden
69th St. Terminal
Millbourne
Ellsworth-Federal
Girard
63rd 60th
Girard
Fairmount
Somerset Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Cecil B. Moore
Millbourne
Girard
Berks
Tasker-Morris
Spring Garden
Chinatown
15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd Walnut-Locust11th Lombard-SouthCity Hall
Percentage By Subway Travel byTravel Subway Criteria from Low to High
Ellsworth-Federal Tasker-Morris
Subway Station Buffer
Susquehanna-Dauphin
Travel Time to Work from Low toWork Criteria TimeTravel to High Subway Station Buffer 69th St. Terminal
1 2
Millbourne
63rd 60th
Girard
56th 52nd
46th
40th
Spring Garden
Race-Vine Chinatown 15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd Walnut-Locust11th Lombard-SouthCity Hall
34th 30th
Ellsworth-Federal Tasker-Morris
Snyder
3
Oregon
4
Oregon
Berks
Girard
Fairmount
Snyder
5
Somerset Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Cecil B. Moore
Spring Garden
Allegheny
Percentage of Vehebile Non-availabel Households from to VehicleLow Non-availability High Subway Station Buff 1 2 3 4 5
Patson��
Patson��
2 3
Oregon
4 5
Data Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey
Tioga
North Philadelphia
1
Snyder
Patson��
Erie/Torresdale
Alleghney
Allegheny
Somerset Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Cecil B. Moore
Tioga
North Philadelphia
69th St. Terminal
Susquehanna-Dauphin
Erie/Torresdale
Alleghney
Tioga
North Philadelphia
Church
Erie
Erie/Torresdale
Alleghney
Margaret/Orthodox
Huntng Par k�
Frankford Terminal Margaret/Orthodox
Huntng Par k�
Church
Erie
Frankford Terminal
Wyoming
Margaret/Orthodox
Huntng Par k�
Wyoming
Fern Rock Trans. Center
Logan
Wyoming
Logan
Lu Yao
Resident’s Journey to Work Public transit ridership of a study zone indicates the amount of steady traffic flow and source of transit ridership. In our study we calculate the “means of travel” and “car ownership” to tell which study zones have steadier and higher public transit ridership. We also believe that a good transit system can convince car-driving population into using public transit. This idea is reflected in our selection of criteria as potential public transit ridership, which is represented by calculating travel time to work by car. The underlying notion of this criterion is that people who spend longer time to commute by car might be more willing to use public transit.
University of Pennsylvania,School of Design
Transit Oriented Development Potential Study of Philadelphia
GIS503 Final Project Fall 2011 Xinlin Huang
Rung-Er Jang
Lu Yao
Step Four : Weight Criteria After the previous processes in ArcGIS, every study zone now has its own value for each criterion. In this step, those data was exported into Excel spread sheet for our next step: weighing criteria. We do not assume that every criterion we use has the same significant in supporting a TOD zone, and this is the rationale for this weighing criteria step. Each criterion for a study zone is summarized by assigning a score range from 1 to 5. The higher the score, the higher level of potential it is. Considering the different level of importance of criteria, we weigh different criteria based on their effectiveness in promoting TOD. Because the critical features of TOD include density, walkability, mixed use and traffic, we assign population density, land use, walkability and subway
Olney Logan
Wyoming
After the weighing criteria result comes out, the score for study zones are imported to ArcGIS and joined with its spatial units – namely the study zones. Then by taking the advantage of ArcGIS’s data display function, the 52 study zones are first divided by means of quintile into 5 classes. 9 study zones with the highest scores are displayed in Red colour. Yellow, Green, light-blue represents study zones that running after the red study zones, and each of them contains 10 study zones. There are 12 study zones fall in dark-blue colour, which is the least study zones with the lowest score.
Frankford Terminal Margaret/Orthodox
Huntng Par k�
Church
Erie
Erie/Torresdale
Alleghney
Tioga
North Philadelphia Susquehanna-Dauphin
Girard Millbourne
63rd 60th
56th 52nd
Spring Garden 46th
40th
Race-Vine
Spring Garden
Chinatown 15th 13th 8th 5th 2nd Walnut-Locust11th Lombard-SouthCity Hall
34th 30th
Ellsworth-Federal Tasker-Morris
Berks
Girard
Fairmount 69th St. Terminal
Allegheny
Somerset Huntngdon� York-Dauphin
Cecil B. Moore
ridership the highest weight of 5 and each of the other criteria are weighed 1.
The overall formula of calculating the final score is: (Population Density*5)+ (Land Use*5) + (Walkability*5) + (Travel by Subway*5) + Income + Employment + Rent + House Value + Time Travel to Work + Average Percentage of Household with no Vehicle Available) / 26
Fern Rock Trans. Center
Final Score: TOD PotenCriteria Score tial From Low to High Subway Station Buffer 1.11538462 - 2.03846154 2.03846155 - 2.57692308
Snyder
2.57692309 - 2.88461538
Oregon
2.88461539 - 3.38461538 3.38461539 - 4.73076923
Patson��
University of Pennsylvania,School of Design
Transit Oriented Development Potential Study of Philadelphia
GIS503 Final Project Fall 2011 Xinlin Huang
Rung-Er Jang
Lu Yao
Girard
O !
III. Result &Conclusion Out study shows that the 9 study zones in Red colour are the station areas with the highest TOD potential in City of Philadelphia (see the chart & map on the right). We eliminated the 15 BSL station because is it overlapped with 15 MFL station. Thus our final result contains 8 study zones. Most of them are clustered around central city, and only one of them located in west Philadelphia, and one of them located on water front area. Looking at this result, we realized the methodology of this study is not perfect. The method of weighing the criteria is subjective. It is based on the assumption that these criteria are independent and the weights are properly assigned. However, some of the criteria are internally related so that they will uniformly show high value or low value in a given area, resulting in pushing up the overall score of the area. In addition, the study looks at TOD as a type of development that should be based on existing social-economic condition. However, TOD in many cases is used as a method to create development opportunities for an area. In developing countries like China, TOD is very often the initial step to urbanize an area, which means the ideal site for TOD is also dependent on a region’s overall economic development profile. In our further studies, we might adopt a new perspective to look at TOD based on more case studies on TOD’s application in various regions and countries around the world.
Girard O !
Ideal TOD Sites
O !
Fairmount
Spring Garden
O ! O !
56th
Spring Garden O !
52nd
46th
O !
O !
O !
Race-Vine
40th O !
34th
O !
30th
Chinatown
O !
O !
15th 13th 8th O Hall ! 5th O11th ! ! City 2nd O O ! O ! Walnut-Locust 8th Ridge Spur
O! ! O O !
Lombard-South
O !
Legend O !
SEPTA Subway Station SEPTA-Market Frankford Line
Ellsworth-Federal
O !
SEPTA-Broad Street Line TOD_area
Tasker-Morris
Philadelphia Neighborhoods
O !
Census tract Snyder
O !
0
0.5
1
2
Miles
O !
Oregon
I