APPENDIX
Statistical essay Giambattista Salinari and Paul Ginsborg
Introductory note In this appendix to Paul Ginsborg’s Family Politics we present a set of demographic and economic statistics relating to the five countries analysed in the book – the Soviet Union, Turkey, Italy, Spain and Germany – for the period 1900–50. The material is organised in five subsections, each of which is dedicated to a single country. The indices presented in these subsections cover the same subjects and follow (with a few exceptions) the same order, and may therefore be used not only to analyse the evolution over time of a particular phenomenon within a particular country, but also to draw comparisons between different countries in the same period. In this introductory note we briefly consider three aspects of the demographic history of these countries: demographic transition,1 demographic catastrophes and the politics of eugenics. The five countries analysed are seen to be at very different stages in the process of demographic transition during the period in question (see figure 1). The process typically begins with a decline in mortality, followed, around ten to twenty years later, by a decline in the birth rate. Because the decline in mortality precedes the decline in the birth rate, there are more births each year than deaths. As a consequence, the natural growth rate of populations becomes markedly positive, such that they begin to grow at speeds that have never been seen before and will probably never be seen again (see figure 2). Population growth is in fact one of the great phenomena of the period under consideration, together with its exact opposite, the destruction of human life brought about by an unprecedented sequence of world wars, civil wars and famines. Of the five countries analysed in the book, one, Turkey, still seems to be in a pre-transitional phase throughout the whole of the period examined (see figure 3): birth rates are still very high, between 45 and 55 per thousand, while levels of mortality are lower, between 30 and 40 per thousand, showing signs of rapid decline only from the 1940s. As a result, of the five countries analysed Turkey displays the fastest population growth. Germany, Italy and Spain, by contrast, are seen to be fully transitional: by 1 This term is generally used to refer to the long historical process that sees the high levels of mortality and birth typical of earlier societies gradually replaced by the low levels characteristic of most present-day populations.
522
statistical essay: introductory note 1900 Turkey
1925
1950
USSR 50 40
Deaths Births
Death and birth rates (per thousand)
30 20 10 Germany
Spain
Italy
50 40 30 20 10 1900
1925
1950
Year
1900
1925
1950
Figure 1 Birth and death rates in the USSR, Turkey, Italy, Spain and Germany, 1900–1950 the end of the period under consideration, the mortality rate in these countries is not much more than 10 per thousand while the birth rate is between 10 and 20 per thousand. Finally, the Soviet Union seems to fall between the two extremes represented by Turkey on the one hand and Germany, Italy and Spain on the other. The transitional process already seems to be under way in this vast country, even though it is obscured somewhat by the fact that the trends in the various series are affected by at least three great demographic crises followed by their respective processes of recovery. It is this that accounts for the very different appearance of the data for the USSR presented in figures 1 and 3 here. The stage in the transitional process reached by each of our five countries is closely linked to the evolution of its age structure. While in the three European countries and the Soviet Union the age pyramid shows the first signs of population aging in the period under consideration (see figure 5 in each of the country sections below), the evolution of the Turkish population shows the opposite trend, its population growing progressively younger. Demographic transition, then, is the fundamental demographic phenomenon that determines the overall trend of the series of births and deaths. This overall trend is overlaid, however, by another, more short-term trend occasioned by the outbreak of wars and famines.
statistical essay: introductory note 1900 Turkey
1925
523
1950
USSR 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6
log (population)
1.4 1.2 Germany
Spain
Italy
2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1900
1925
1950
Year
1900
1925
1950
Figure 2 Population dynamics in the USSR, Turkey, Italy, Spain and Germany, 1900–1950 In figure 2, which shows the dynamics of the log-population, these cataclysms are not easily discernible. But in figure 4 a much more dramatic picture emerges, by comparison with the placid group of ‘earthworms’ that seem intent on making their way up slopes of varying steepness in figure 2. The graphs of figure 4 bring into focus the years immediately before and after various great demographic catastrophes – the First World War, the Spanish flu epidemic, the Russian Civil War, the great famine caused by collectivisation in the Soviet Union, the Shoah and the Spanish Civil War. Five different points seem to emerge from these graphs: • The intensity and violence of the demographic crises experienced by the Soviet Union in the period 1900–50 were not matched in any of the other countries examined here.2 • The increase in mortality caused by the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 was significantly greater, as is well known, than the increase in mortality caused by the First World War. 2 It should be noted that the series of births and deaths for the Soviet Union are derived from the reconstruction by Biraben, and that this reconstruction is particularly unreliable in relation to the great demographic catastrophes.
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statistical essay: introductory note
55
50
Birth rate (per thousand)
45
40 Germany Italy
35
Spain Turkey
30
USSR 25
20
15
05
10
15
20 25 Rate of mortality (per thousand)
30
35
40
Figure 3 Trend of demographic transition in the USSR, Turkey, Italy, Spain and Germany, 1900–1950 • The effects of the Spanish Civil War, though significant, were not as great as those identified in the previous two points. • Great crises have an effect not only on mortality but also on the other elements of population dynamics: at the same time as a rise in deaths, in all the cases examined there is a drastic reduction in births. This phenomenon, which often appears to be more pronounced than the rise in deaths, produces in a population’s age structure gaps that are even more apparent many years later in the age pyramids (see figure 5 in each of the country sections below). • In the years following a crisis a process known as ‘demographic recovery’ may quite frequently be observed, in which birth rates tend to exceed precrisis figures, as if the population were trying to ‘recover’ the losses suffered. In addition to the great demographic catastrophes, there are a number of other factors – such as the pro-natalist strategies related to the family politics of the great dictators and to what we might call ‘the challenge of eugenics’ – that can work, in a limited fashion, against the general trend of demographic transition (see figure on p. 526). All the dictators discussed in this book were intent on the growth of their own populations, in order to increase the size and strength of their armies. Mus-
statistical essay: introductory note 1937 1939 1941 1943
Spain 1936–44
525
1931 1933 1935 1937
USSR 1930–8 50
40 Deaths
Death and birth rates (per thousand)
30
Births
20
Germany 1914–22
Italy 1914–22
USSR 1914–22
1915 1917 1919 1921
1915 1917 1919 1921
1915 1917 1919 1921
50
40
30
20
Year
Figure 4 Trend of births and deaths over five different demographic catastrophes solini’s Ascension Day speech exemplifies this ambition. All, moreover, wanted to see their country liberated from the curse of infectious disease, a reduction in infant mortality and a rise in fertility and levels of education. But how far were they successful? Figure 5 (on p. 526) shows quite clearly that, whatever the claims of their propaganda, their achievements were modest, particularly with regard to the decline in birth rates – the question these regimes were most vexed by. The statistics presented in this appendix allow us to follow the processes of transformation and events mentioned above, as well as others, through nine different parameters: general population dynamics, fertility, the marriage rate, mortality, age structure, literacy, urbanisation, the distribution of the population by economic sector and per capita GDP. It should be noted that there are two different theoretical approaches to the calculation of more strictly demographical indices. First, there is what is known as ‘longitudinal’ or ‘cohort’ analysis, where one begins by identifying the components
526
statistical essay: introductory note USSR 35 30
Deaths Births
Death and birth rates (per thousand)
25 20 15 10
Germany
Italy
35 30 25 20 15 10 1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940 1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
Year
Figure 5 Trend of births and deaths in the USSR, Italy and Germany during the 1930s of a given generation3 or cohort4 and then proceeds to measure the phenomenon in question year by year, until every member of the generation or cohort is deceased. Demography also employs a second approach, however, known as ‘cross-sectional’ or ‘period’ analysis. According to this approach the analysis is imagined to focus on a given moment, attributing to a fictitious generation or cohort – that is, one that is imagined rather than real – the demographic behaviour observed in various ages of the population at that moment. Most of the indicators normally used to describe demographic behaviour – including the indices used in this appendix – belong to this second type of measurement, because cohort indices cannot generally be constituted for recent generations. In this regard it is important to note that period indices can be subject to a particular kind of bias known as the ‘tempo effect’. Here variations in the timing of a phenomenon (for example, the mean age at child-bearing) can be ‘exchanged’ for variations in the intensity of the phenomenon (such as the mean number of children per woman). Having considered a number of general points, let us now look in greater detail at the indicators covered in the sections for each country below.5 All those born in a given year. All those who experienced a particular event in a given period. 5 In drafting the following definitions we have made use of the neodemos glossary; see http://www.neodemos.it. 3 4
statistical essay: introductory note
527
Population Figure 1 shows the trend of the population at mid-year, with the exception of the case of the Soviet Union, where the series of values relates to the population on 1 January. In all of the countries examined the population follows an upward trend. The population that shows the most rapid growth proves to be that of Turkey. Death and birth rates Figure 2 shows the evolution over time of birth and death rates. The birth rate is the relationship between the number of live births within a given period of time – usually a calendar year – and the mean total population in that same period. Similarly, mortality is calculated as the relationship between the number of deaths and the mean population. Both rates are usually measured in thousandths. The Turkish population shows the highest values for these variables: up to the 1940s the birth rate in this country fluctuates between 45 and 55 per thousand, while mortality is between 30 and 40 per thousand. The populations of Germany, Spain and Italy on the other hand show lower values: at the end of the period under consideration the birth rate in these countries is between 15 and 25 per thousand, while mortality is between 10 and 15 per thousand. Rates of total fertility and infant mortality Figure 3 shows the evolution over time of the rates of infant mortality and total fertility (TFR). These measurements have been presented in a single graph in order to show the close correlation between the trend in mortality and that in fertility – a correlation that, as we have seen, underlies the theory of demographic transition. The rate of infant mortality is calculated as the relationship between the number of deaths in the first year of life (excluding still births) and the mean resident population and is generally measured in thousandths. The total fertility rate is the mean number of children produced by a woman in the course of her entire fertile period (taken as being between the ages of 15 and 49). These are more precise measurements than those for death and birth rates, facilitating comparisons between populations with different age structures. There are no data for these indicators in the case of Turkey. Life expectancy Table 1 shows the evolution over time of life expectancy at birth. This is the mean number of years lived by a generation (or fictional generation). In the case of Turkey, the value for life expectancy at five years is also shown. This is the mean number of years of life remaining to those who have survived to the age of five. All the countries examined show an upward overall trend for this variable, one that essentially reflects the general decline in infant and child mortality in this period. Mean age at marriage Figure 4 shows the series for the mean age at marriage for men and women. We have tried, where possible, to show the period mean age at first marriage. This datum, available for Germany and Italy, can be calculated on the basis of
528
statistical essay: introductory note
the known ages of spouses at the point of marriage. Where this datum was not available, as in the case of Spain, the ‘singulate mean age at marriage’ (SMAM) is shown, a measurement of the average length of single life of those who married before the age of fifty. In the case of the Soviet Union, it was not possible to find a continuous series either for the mean age at first marriage or for the SMAM. In this case we have therefore used Scherbov’s retrospective reconstruction of the mean age at first marriage for the birth cohorts of the first half of the twentieth century. It should be noted that this measurement has been calculated using the longitudinal approach, and that its comparability with the other measurements of this section is therefore limited. We have been unable to find information relating to the mean age at marriage for Turkey. In Italy, Spain and Germany there is a mild upward trend in the dynamics of the mean age at marriage. The great demographic catastrophes of these years are seen to have had an impact on this trend, however. Particularly evident is the rapid rise in the mean age at marriage during the First World War. Sex and age structure Figure 5 shows the sex and age structure of the population. The graphs show the number of individuals (in thousands) for given age classes and for each sex. The form of the age pyramid shows how old a population is. If the pyramid is triangular in form, the population will have a young age structure; if on the other hand the pyramid is flask-shaped, the population will be older. Young age structures are typical of populations that are either pre-transitional or in the first phase of transition. Older age structures are typical of later phases of transition or of populations that are post-transitional. Of the populations analysed here only Turkey still has a triangular age pyramid around 1950. Proportion of the population living in cities Figure 6 shows the evolution of urbanisation. The three series show the proportion of the total population living in cities with more than 25,000, 50,000 and 100,000 inhabitants respectively. According to the compilers of these statistics, the figure for the population resident in cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants is more reliable than the others. The international comparability of these values is nevertheless limited, owing to the different definitions of the term ‘city’ employed in the different countries. All the countries analysed experienced mass rural exoduses during the period under consideration. Levels of illiteracy and literacy Table 2 shows levels of illiteracy in the population at different periods. These figures have not been provided for Germany because levels of illiteracy in this country were already negligible by the second half of the nineteenth century. Notwithstanding various temporal and regional variations in the definition of the term ‘illiterate’, we believe these statistics to be broadly comparable over time and between the various countries.
statistical essay: introductory note
529
Gross domestic product Figure 7 shows the evolution of per capita GDP. This measurement represents the total value of goods and services produced within a given country in the course of a year by resident or non-resident economic producers. All the series shown were reconstructed by Maddison and expressed in international Geary-Khamis dollars of 1990. This means that the various series take the purchasing power of the dollar in 1990 as a point of reference. Distribution of the active population by economic sector Table 3 shows the percentual distribution of the active population by economic sector and sex. The active population is the sum of those employed, those unemployed and those in search of their first employment. In order to guarantee the comparability of the statistics published by Mitchell, for some countries (Italy, Spain and the Soviet Union) we have aggregated the three headings ‘Construction’, ‘Manufacturing industry’ and ‘Extractive industry’ into the single heading ‘Industry’. A number of slight discrepancies between the figures presented in these tables and those presented in the text are due to this homogenising of data. The two most significant phenomena revealed by these tables are industrialisation and the increasing participation of women in the world of work. Essential bibliography The first studies of demographic transition are generally considered to be Adolphe Landry, La révolution démographique: Études et essais sur les problèmes de la population (Paris: Recueil Sirey, 1934) and Frank W. Notestein, ‘Population: the long view’, in Theodore W. Schultz (ed.), Food for the World (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1945), pp. 36–57. On the relationship between demographic transition, population growth and economic growth, see Ester Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure (London: Aldine, 1965), and Oded Galor and David N. Weil, ‘Population, technology and growth: from Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond’, American Economic Review, 4 (2000), pp. 806–27. On demographic crises, famines and recovery processes, see Patrick R. Galloway, ‘Basic patterns in annual variations in fertility, nuptiality, mortality, and prices in pre-industrial Europe’, Population Studies, 42 (1988), no. 2, pp. 275–302, and Cormac Ó Gráda, Famine: A Short History (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 200
530
Soviet Union 200
195.0
190
181.8
Population on 1 January (in millions)
180
179.9
179.6
170
164.8
173.6
160 150
152.3
140 130 120
127.0 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 1 Population on 1 January (within 1946 territorial borders of the USSR)
Source: data presented in Jean-Noël Biraben, ‘Essai sur l’évolution démographique de l’U.R.S.S.’, Population, 13 (1958), no. 2, pp. 29–62.
60
54
55
48
Rates (per thousand)
50
53
45
45
44
40
37
35 30
30
25
27
29 26
20 15
18
10
Births
5
First World War
Deaths
0 1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
Civil War 1920
1925
18
Collectivisation and famine 1930
1935
16 Second World War 1940
1945
Year
Figure 2 Birth and death rates (within 1946 territorial borders of the USSR)
Source: data presented in Biraben, ‘Essai sur l’évolution démographique de l’U.R.S.S.’
10
1950
1955
statistical essay: soviet union
7
531
6.7 270
5
252 220
4
3.0
3
170
2 120 1 0 1895
TFR
81
Infant mortality 1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 3 Rates of total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality in Russia
Source: data presented in E. M. Andreev, L. E. Darskii and T. L. Kharkova, Demograficheskaya istoriya Rossii, 1927–1959 (Moscow: Informatika, 1998).
Year
1900 1930 1938 1950
Males 29.4 34.6 35.7 53.4
Table 1 Life expectancy at birth (e 0) in Russia (in years)
Females 31.4 38.7 41.9 60.9
Source: Andreev, Darskii and Kharkova, Demograficheskaya istoriya Rossii.
70
Infant mortality (per thousand)
Total fertility rate (TFR)
6
532
statistical essay: soviet union 30
Males
Mean age at first marriage (cohorts)
29
Females
28 27
27.2 26.3
26
25.4
25.1
25 24 23 22 1905
24.4 22.2 1910
22.6 1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
Year of birth
Figure 4 Mean age at first marriage
Source: data presented in Sergei Scherbov and Harrie van Vianen, ‘Marriage in Russia: a reconstruction’, Demographic Research, 10 (2004), no. 2, pp. 27–60.
80-84
Males
70-74
Females
60-64
Age
50-54 40-44 30-34
First World War Civil War
20-24
Collectivisation and famine
10-14
Second World War
0-4 13000 11000 9000
7000
5000
3000
1000
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000 11000 13000
Population in 1951 (in thousands)
Figure 5 Distribution of the population by sex and age (within 1946 territorial borders of the USSR ) Source: data presented in Biraben, ‘Essai sur l’évolution démographique de l’U.R.S.S.’
statistical essay: soviet union
533
Proportion of pop. living in cities (per thousand)
450
402
400 350
324
300
264
250 200
188
150
141
100
104
Cities > 100,000 Cities > 50,000 Cities > 25,000
50 0 1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
Year
Figure 6 Proportion of the population living in cities
Source: data presented in Arthur S. Banks and Kenneth Wilson, Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive (Jerusalem: Databanks International, 2013).
Population
Sex
1897 1920 1926 1939
Rural
Males Females Both
36 52 67 92 13 25 35 77 24 38 51 84
Urban
Males Females Both
66 81 88 97 46 67 74 91 57 74 81 94
Total
Males Females Both
40 58 72 94 17 32 43 82 28 44 57 87
Table 2 Levels of literacy in the population aged 9–49 (percentages)
Source: Boris N. Mironov, ‘The Development of Literacy in Russia and the USSR from the Tenth to the Twentieth Centuries’, History of Education Quarterly, 31 (1991), no. 2, pp. 229–52.
534
statistical essay: soviet union
Per capita GDP (1990 international G-K $)
3000
2841 2500
2237
2000
1913 1500
1237
1000 500 0 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 7 Per capita gross domestic product (GDP)
Source: data presented in Angus Maddison, ‘Statistics on world population, GDP and per capita GDP’, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison.htm.
Agriculture Industry Commerce Commercial Services Other transport Males 1897 52.6 13.1 3.7 1926 43.7 4.6 1.1 1959 17.6 21.7 1.9
2.3 1.4 –
11.2 0.8 1.5 0.7 5.0 0.1
Females 1897 6.5 3.2 0.5 1926 43.0 1.4 0.3 1959 28.2 13.7 3.0
0.1 0.1 –
6.2 0.9 1.0 8.7 0.1
Table 3 Distribution of the active population by economic sector (percentages)
Source: B. R. Mitchell, International Historical Statistics: Europe, 1750–2005 (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007). Note: The figure for industry in 1959 also includes the category ‘Transport and communications’. The figures for 1897 exclude Poland. The figures for 1926 exclude the unemployed.
535
Turkey 28 26
Population (in millions)
24 22
20.8
20 18 16 14
14.3
12 10 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 1 Population at mid-year
Source: data presented in Mitchell, International Historical Statistics: Europe.
60
54
55 50
Rates (per thousand)
47
45
45 40 35
40
36
30
34
25 20
21
15 10 5 0 1895
Births Deaths 1900
1905
Figure 2 Birth and death rates
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
Year
Source: For the period 1923–30 we have used the reconstruction in Frederic C. Shorter, ‘The population of Turkey after the War of Independence’, International Journal of Middle East Studies, 17 (1985), no. 4; for the period 1935–50 the data are taken from Figen Karadayı et al., The Population of Turkey (Ankara: Institute of Population Studies, Hacettepe University, 1974).
536
statistical essay: turkey Life expectancy at birth (e 0)
Period
Life expectancy at 5 years (e5)
Males and females
1935–40 1940–45 1945–50
Males
35.4 31.4 38.1
Females
51.5 49.6 46.5 46.2 52.4 53.4
Table 1 Life expectancy at birth and at 5 years (in years)
Source: for life expectancy at birth we have used the reconstruction in Shorter, ‘The population of Turkey after the War of Independence’; the data for life expectancy at five years by sex are taken from Karadayı et al., The Population of Turkey.
There are no figures 3 and 4 for Turkey. See the paragraph ‘Rates of total fertility and infant mortality’ in the introductory note above.
80+
Males
70-74
Females
60-64
Age
50-54 40-44
First World War and War of Independence
30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 2000
1500
1000
500
0
500
1000
Population in 1950 (in thousands)
Figure 5 Distribution of the population by sex and age
Source: data presented in Mitchell, International Historical Statistics: Europe.
1500
2000
statistical essay: turkey
537
Proportion of pop. living in cities (per thousand)
160
139
140 120 100
101
96
82
80 60
65 52
Cities > 100,000
40
Cities > 50,000
20 0 1915
Cities > 25,000
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
Year
Figure 6 Proportion of the population living in cities
Source: data presented in Banks and Wilson, Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive.
Age
1935 M F
1945 M F
7–9 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+ Unknown
80 87 62 78 62 79 58 85 61 91 73 94 80 97 88 99 94 99 98 100
71 79 52 69 48 73 39 76 46 85 60 91 72 94 81 97 88 98 83 94
Table 2 Levels of illiteracy by sex and age (percentages)
Source: UNESCO, Progress of Literacy in Various Countries (Paris: Firmin-Didot, 1953).
1955
538
statistical essay: turkey 2000
Per capita GDP (1990 international G-K $)
1814 1623 1500
1302
1213
1205
1000
712
500
0 1895
1133
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 7 Per capita gross domestic product (GDP)
Source: data presented in Maddison, ‘Statistics on world population, GDP and per capita GDP’.
Agriculture Industry Industry Construction Commerce Transport Services Other (Extrac.) (Manuf.) (Comm.) Males 1935 42.6 1.0 4.9 0.9 1945 50.8 1.4 5.7 0.8
2.6 3.5
1.5 1.8
4.9 0.1 8.7 0.3
Females 1935 39.0 0.0 1.6 – 1945 25.1 0.0 1.1 –
0.2 0.1
0.0 0.0
0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1
Table 3 Distribution of the active population by economic sector (percentages) Source: Mitchell, International Historical Statistics: Europe.
539
Italy 50
Population at mid-year (in millions)
46.8 45
40
36.5 35
30
35.7 32.4
25 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 1 Population at mid-year
Source: data presented in Franz Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945 (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005). 40 35
33
32
Rates (per thousand)
30 25 20
23
24
18
15
18
10
First World War
5 0 1895
Births
1900
1905
15 10
Spanish flu epidemic
Deaths 1910
1915
1920
1925
Second World War 1930
1935
1940
Year
Figure 2 Birth and death rates
19
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
1945
1950
1955
540
statistical essay: italy 5
250
4.4
230
3
210
192
190
3.0 174
2.4
2.5
110
112
1
90
TFR
1905
1915
70
64
Infant mortality 1925
1935
1945
50 1955
Year
Figure 3 Rates of total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
150 130
2
0 1895
170
Period
1899–1902 1901–1910 1910–1912 1921–1922 1930–1932 1935–1937 1950–1953
Table 1 Life expectancy at birth (in years)
Males 42.6 44.2 46.6 49.3 53.8 – 63.8
Source: Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
Females 43.0 44.8 47.3 50.8 56.0 57.5 67.3
Infant mortality (per thousand)
Total fertility rate (TFR)
4
statistical essay: italy
541
30
28.8
Mean age at first marriage
29 28
27.5
27.4
27 26 25
25.3
25.0
Males
24 23 1905
24.0
23.6 1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
Females 1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
Year
Figure 4 Mean age at first marriage
Source: Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945
100+
Males
90-94
Females
80-84 70-74
Age
60-64 50-54 40-44 First World War, Spanish flu epidemic
30-34 20-24 10-14
Second World War
0-4 2500
1500
500
500
1500
Population in 1951 (in thousands)
Figure 5 Distribution of the population by sex and age
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
2500
542
statistical essay: italy
Proportion of pop. living in cities (per thousand)
400
364
350 300
273
250 200 150
204
202
126
Cities > 100,000
87
Cities > 50,000
100
Cities > 25,000
50 0 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 6 Proportion of the population living in cities
Source: data presented in Banks and Wilson, Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive.
Age
1901 M F
1911 M F
6-9 10-14 15-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ Unknown
49 53 41 42 33 34 14 15 36 39 23 25 18 19 8 9 36 40 25 28 17 18 11 12 35 45 24 33 16 21 12 15 38 54 28 40 20 27 14 21 41 63 34 50 25 43 19 29 53 72 43 62 33 45 28 40 60 79 54 72 44 58 41 57 43 59 57 68 – – 41 53
Table 2 Levels of illiteracy by sex and age (percentages)
Source: UNESCO, Progress of Literacy in Various Countries.
1921 M F
1931 M F
statistical essay: italy
543
Per capita GDP (1990 international G-K $)
4000
3521
3392
3500 3000
2564
2500 2000
3502
3093 2877
1785
1922
1500 1000 500 0 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 7 Per capita gross domestic product (GDP)
Source: data presented in Maddison, ‘Statistics on world population, GDP and per capita GDP’.
Agriculture Industry Commerce Commercial Services Other transport Males 1901 39.3 15.9 3.2 1911 37.3 18.2 4.4 1921 39.1 17.7 5.1 1931 37.9 23.5 6.0 1936 35.0 20.8 6.3 1951 28.0 22.1 0.7
2.5 3.2 3.9 4.4 3.6 3.3
6.1 0.5 5.1 0.5 5.4 – 5.5 – 4.7 1.0 11.9 11.9
Females 1901 19.4 8.3 0.7 1911 18.1 8.4 1.2 1921 17.0 6.8 1.3 1931 8.9 7.3 1.6 1936 13.3 7.4 2.4 1951 9.1 6.2 0.1
0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
3.6 0.4 3.4 0.1 3.5 – 4.7 – 5.2 0.2 6.4 –
Table 3 Distribution of the active population by economic sector (percentages) Source: Mitchell, International Historical Statistics: Europe.
544
Spain 29
Population at mid-year (in millions)
27.9 27 25
23.2
23
22.4
21 19
18.4 17 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 1 Population at mid-year
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
Rates (per thousand)
40 35
34
30
29
33
24
25
20
20 15
17
16 11
10 5 0 1895
Births
Spanish flu epidemic
Deaths 1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
Civil War 1930
1935
1940
Year
Figure 2 Birth and death rates
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945
1945
1950
1955
statistical essay: spain 5
545 250
4.7
230
Total fertility rate (TFR)
3
210 190
186
170
2.5 2
130 110 90
1 TFR 0 1895
70
Infant mortality 1905
1915
64 1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 3 Rates of total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
150
Year
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940
Table 1 Life expectancy at birth (in years)
Males 33.9 40.9 40.3 48.4 47.1
Source: Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
Females 35.7 42.6 42.1 51.1 53.2
50
Infant mortality (per thousand)
4
546
statistical essay: spain 30
29.0
Mean age at first marriage (SMAM)
29 28
27.4
27
26.4
26 25
24.5
Males
24
Females 23 1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1950
1940
1960
Year
Figure 4 Mean age at first marriage
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
100+ 90-94
Males
80-84
Females
70-74
Age
60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34
Spanish flu epidemic
20-24 10-14
Civil War
0-4 1500
1000
500
0
500
1000
Population in 1950 (in thousands)
Figure 5 Distribution of the population by sex and age
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
1500
statistical essay: spain
547
Proportion of pop. living in cities (per thousand)
400
360
350 300
299
250
238
200 150
185 134
100
Cities > 100,000
94
Cities > 50,000 Cities > 25,000
50 0 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 6 Proportion of the population living in cities
Source: data presented in Banks and Wilson, Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive.
Age
1900 M F
1910 M F
1920 M F
1940 M F
10+ 10–15 16–20 21–30 31–40 41–50 51–60 61+ Unknown
47 69 52 63 45 60 44 64 44 69 45 74 50 80 56 84 56 65
42 48 40 38 39 41 44 51 40
36 43 34 30 32 34 38 45 37
17 20 14 9 13 17 23 33 –
61 56 51 55 60 66 72 79 51
Table 2 Levels of illiteracy by sex and age (percentages)
Source: UNESCO, Progress of Literacy in Various Countries.
52 48 42 44 50 55 62 70 41
29 21 16 19 26 32 40 52 –
548
statistical essay: spain
Per capita GDP (1990 international G-K $)
3000
2739 2500 2000
2486
2189
1786 1790
1500 1000 500 0 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 7 Per capita gross domestic product (GDP)
Source: data presented in Maddison, ‘Statistics on world population, GDP and per capita GDP’.
Agriculture Industry Commerce Commercial Services Other transport Males 1900 57.3 11.3 3.0 1910 51.5 11.5 1.5 1920 52.1 17.5 4.3 1940 49.0 20.6 5.6 1950 45.0 21.2 5.5
1.8 2.0 2.7 3.3 3.7
5.8 5.8 6.0 9.2 7.4
2.5 14.1 3.5 0.1 1.4
Females 1900 10.8 2.3 0.4 1910 4.8 2.3 0.3 1920 4.0 3.5 0.7 1940 2.8 3.4 0.8 1950 3.9 3.9 1.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
4.4 4.7 4.3 5.1 6.7
0.4 1.4 1.4 – 0.2
Table 3 Distribution of the active population by economic sector (percentages) Source: Mitchell, International Historical Statistics: Europe.
549
Germany
Population at mid-year (in millions)
75
70
70.4
67.9
65
60
61.2 56.0
55
50 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 1 Population at mid-year
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
40 35
36
Rates (per thousand)
30 25
24
22
20
20
14
10 5 0 1895
16
15
15
Births
1905
Second World War
Spanish flu epidemic
Deaths 1900
12
First World War
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
Year
Figure 2 Birth and death rates
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
1945
1950
1955
550
statistical essay: germany 250
6
230 210 190
4
170
3
150
2.4
2
130
1.6
110
1.5 1 0 1895
90
TFR 1905
1915
70
60
Infant mortality 1925
1935
50 1945
1955
Year
Figure 3 Rates of total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
Period
Males
Females
1901–10 1910–11 1924–26 1932–34 1946–47
44.8 47.4 55.0 59.9 57.7
48.3 50.7 58.8 62.8 63.4
Table 1 Life expectancy at birth (in years)
Source: Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
Infant mortality (per thousand)
Total fertility rate (TFR)
5
223 4.8
statistical essay: germany
551
30
Mean age at first marriage
29
28.8
28.6
28
27.5
27.4
27 26
25.7
26.2
25.4
25
24.8
24
Males Females
23 1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
Year
Figure 4 Mean age at first marriage
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
100+ 90-94
Males
80-84
Females
70-74
Age
60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24
First World War
10-14 0-4 4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1000
2000
Population in 1939 (in thousands)
Figure 5 Distribution of the population by sex and age
Source: data presented in Rothenbacher, The European Population since 1945.
3000
4000
552
statistical essay: germany
Proportion of pop. living in cities (per thousand)
500
465
450 400
369
350
321
300 250
252
200
211
150
162
100 1895
Cities > 100,000 Cities > 50,000 Cities > 25,000
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
Year
Figure 6 Proportion of the population living in cities
Source: data presented in Banks and Wilson, Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive.
Per capita GDP (1990 international G-K $)
7000
6084
6000 5000
4090
4000 3000
2985
3881 3362
2000
2217
1000 0 1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
Year
Figure 7 Per capita gross domestic product (GDP)
Source: data presented in Maddison, ‘Statistics on world population, GDP and per capita GDP’.
statistical essay: germany
553
There is no table 2 for Germany. See the paragraph ‘Levels of illiteracy and literacy’ in the introductory note above.
Agriculture Industry Industry Construction Commerce Transport Services Other (Extrac.) (Manuf.) (Comm.) Males 1895 26.9 3.8 22.2 6.5 1907 19.8 4.5 22.3 7.1 1925 15.1 3.9 23.4 5.3 1933 14.5 3.3 22.5 6.1 1939 11.7 2.1 23.3 6.7
4.5 4.7 6.2 6.8 6.1
2.9 3.7 4.5 4.5 5.1
7.8 7.2 5.8 6.7 8.1
0.7 0.4 0.5 – –
Females 1895 13.4 0.2 6.6 0.1 1907 17.2 0.2 7.0 0.1 1925 15.6 0.1 8.9 0.1 1933 14.5 0.1 8.3 0.1 1939 14.2 0.0 10.0 0.2
1.5 2.1 3.5 4.4 3.8
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
3.6 4.0 7.3 7.9 8.3
0.2 0.2 0.3 – –
Table 3 Distribution of the active population by economic sector (percentages) Source: Mitchell, International Historical Statistics: Europe.