utopia / dystopia
Lifting Tower Projections (moving gifs could be seen on my website: www.chidotpdf.com)
South China Morning Post Saturday, July 23, 2016
C5
EXPLAINER
WAVE OF CHANGE FOR CLASSIC JUNK The traditional wooden trading vessel has long since disappeared from Hong Kong waters to be replaced by a modern leisure icon
During the Han dynasty (206 BC–220 AD), junks tended to have just one or two masts and a shallow hull.
The junk is believed to be the first type of boat to incorporate the stern-mounted rudder, which had the main advantage of needing less energy to be operated by the helmsman. It also avoided any interference with the handling of the sails, overall making it better suited to long-haul travel.
Rachel Blundy rachel.blundy@scmp.com The original junk boat, most commonly used for trade in China and parts of Southeast Asia, typically sailed long distances, incorporating a sturdy sail and hull design. Its structure also meant it was easy to control, generally glided fast across water and could travel long distances. The etymology of the word junk is subject to debate. Some suggest it comes from the Portuguese word junco, as the Portuguese were apparently the first Westerners to encounter junks during visits to China. The Portuguese-Chinese word directly translates as “a Chinese vessel”, according to the Concise Dictionary of English Etymology. Alternatively it may originate from the Javanese or Malay word jong, according to the Etymological Dictionary of the English Language. Historians are also divided over when the junk’s design fully evolved. Historical knowledge of junks is somewhat limited because many were broken up and recycled after about five years’ service, when they became worn out. Early forms of the junk have been traced back to the basic sailing boats of the 2nd century AD. During the Han dynasty (206 BC–220 AD), junks tended to have just one or two masts and a shallow hull. They were made from lightweight softwoods and bamboo battens. They gradually increased in size. By the Song dynasty (960-1279) they had four masts. During this period, they were used extensively for trading. Henry Choi, a Hong Kong-based maritime historian, said the junk became the most effective vessel for facilitating trade because they were costeffective and resilient. “The river was the highway of China, so the junks had a very important role in transportation and trade,” he said. “They were both the cheapest and the most flexible way of transporting goods. The steamboat required designated ports and the railway was restricted by timetables.” Junks also became a key source of military strength into the Yuan dynasty (1279-1368). Many historians consider junks to have fully evolved by the Ming dynasty (1368–1644), when they had as many as nine masts. This move towards multiple masts greatly increased the vessel’s speed, as well as providing a smoother ride overall. Chinese admiral Zheng He is thought to have built the largest junks in history. He had a fleet of about 300 ships with 30,000 crew during the 15th century. Junks are designed with bulkheads – upright walls within the hull of the ship – which aim to make
Admiral Zheng He’s vessel (1431)
Titanic, passenger liner (1912)
La Santa Maria, Christopher Columbus’ flagship (1492) 0 20 (Metre)
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each compartment as watertight as possible. Their design means that even if one or two compartments flood, the others will hopefully remain watertight. The boats also incorporated a stern-mounted rudder, which had the main advantage of needing less energy to be operated by the helmsman. Some of the design concepts used for the junk have also been adopted in modern sailing boats, but historians disagree on whether they directly influenced Western shipbuilding techniques. Dr Stephen Davies, honorary fellow at the University of Hong Kong’s institute for the humanities and social sciences, said it made more sense to think of junks as evolving in parallel with Western models. “The junk boat had intrinsic design limitations,” he said. Junks have traditionally been constructed by “grand masters”, craftsmen who used tools such as the Luban chisel, a saw, a hand drill and a mace. As with shipbuilding techniques across the world, knowledge of specific construction methods has tended to be passed down orally from master to student, and from generation to generation within families. But as of 2010, there were only three ship builders remaining in China, all based in coastal Fujian (福建) province, according to Unesco. The UN agency pledged to preserve the ancient shipbuilding technique, adding it to its safeguarding list in 2010. Junks continued to be crucial for Chinese trade until the 19th century. From 1846-1848, a threemasted trading boat named Keying sailed from the Cape of Good Hope off South Africa to the US and Britain. It was owned by a group of British businessmen, who purchased the vessel in Hong Kong during a period when it was illegal for foreigners to purchase Chinese ships. Technological advances mean junks are no longer used extensively for trade and military expeditions, but rather for travel and sightseeing. While the term junk officially denotes the traditional Chinese design, in Hong Kong it is now often more liberally used to refer to recreational vessels which incorporate any number of mod cons. The city is home to scores of junk companies offering a range of packages, from basic day or evening hires, to full-blown catered options. One of the most iconic junks, the Aqua Luna, which carries tourists around Victoria Harbour, has red sails because according to legend, the colour appeases a dragon living in clouds which brings bad weather. According to Davies, the trend of junks becoming tourist vessels is based on nostalgia rather than practicality. “Heritage and tourism are two unholy twins,” he said. “Heritage is not buzzy because people don’t have any wish to return to custom. It is nostalgia. Junks were bum-numbingly hard work. We pretty it all up now. It is just a photo opportunity.”
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The junks gradually increased in size; by the Song dynasty (960-1279 AD) they had four masts. During this period they were used extensively for trading.
In recent decades in Hong Kong, junks have typically been used to stage either corporate or social events. While the term ‘junk’ technically refers to the old-fashioned Chinese design, it is often now more liberally used to indicate any boat-based function in the city.
By the Ming dynasty (1368–1644), some junks had as many as nine masts. This move towards multiple masts greatly increased the vessels’ speed, as well as providing an overall smoother ride.
Chinese admiral Zheng He is thought to have built the largest junks in history. He had a fleet of about 300 ships with 30,000 crew during the 15th century.
Red sails have sometimes been used for junks, such as Hong Kong’s Aqua Luna, because, according to an old Chinese legend, the colour appeases the dragon which lives in the clouds and is supposedly capable of bringing bad weather.
Traditional junks have been constructed by ‘Grand masters’, who used tools such as Luban chisels, ink markers, saws, hand drills and maces. Sources: Hong Kong Marine Department, Boats and Yachts Ltd., SCMP research
SCMP Graphic: Janice Leung
Friday, August 26, 2016
THE VIEW PETER GUY
Bad for business Worries about the city’s future reveal a game rigged for the rich and young people who recognise the difference between artifice and identity
nameless anxiety, a feeling not a thought. It is the way this story is unfolding not the story itself. Data doesn’t have to make sense. It just has to be truthful. Hong Kong is not Quebec or an EU member where both jurisdictions have constitutions with a secession process. So Hong Kong’s quixotic independence or self-determination movement is really about an entirely different narrative – that the citizenry, not just the students feel, they are not fairly represented in government. And as a result, the government appears to have no incentive to address quality of life issues for average people. Historically, Hong Kong has always found its balance to survive and overcome economic and political crisis. The society is remarkably civil and conservative in its discourse despite being oppressed by predatory capitalism and a property cartel. A benign colonial government, Western legal system and a
T
he head of a global bank asked me recently if I thought Hong Kong was becoming an increasingly unstable society and unsure business environment, because of growing protests and public dissatisfaction. International businesses are wondering about the city’s future as a gateway to China. “Truth is treason in an empire of lies.” That’s how young people seem to feel about how the government and pro-business establishment is trying to manipulate them. It is a visceral uneasiness, a
The city’s Occupy movement may have unfinished business. Photo: EPA dormant China worked to the territory’s advantage. Then, history moved on, and Hong Kong found itself stuck with a government, high society and business elite that desperately clings to status quo. We lived without our own government and a leader for more than a century. Now we have the government and precious little leadership. Instead, we’ve got a coterie of people who have rigged the game to get rich yet have contributed almost nothing to society. The new generation of young Hong Kong people have completely unique values and heroes removed from the older generation. The big difference with their mainland counterparts is that Hong Kong has access to an uncensored internet. Whether or not you believe that makes them susceptible to brainwashing, the city can’t operate as an international financial centre under a state censored internet. The kids do not want to succeed like Li Ka-shing. Their heroes are people who are trying to change the world: Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, not property
developers and acquisitors like Li. The kids recognise the difference between artifice and identity. Living in the shadow of the unfinished business of “Occupy”, its supporters have revived and reconstituted in spirit and strength. They have grown weary of being eternally on the defensive. Exhorted by their imagination and sense that Hong Kong is their home, they seek independence from city leaders and Beijing, whom they believe fail to represent them or share their values. They are actually killing the past with unworkable ideas simply to get on with the future. It is a sad commentary on the state of political life in Hong Kong
Disturbingly absent is any mention of how we got into this ... crisis and how we can get out
that political gatherings take on the look of reality show contestants vying for attention rather than a competition for ideas. There has been a great deal of insults, of name calling at rallies and press conferences. But what is disturbingly absent is any mention of how we got into this brewing crisis and how we can get out. Hong Kong’s only remaining valuable function for China today is to act as an international financial centre for raising, managing and moving money. Hong Kong is no longer needed for its wealth or business knowledge. China raised a billion people out of poverty with a oneparty state. So it has its own reasons to be sceptical of multi-party politics. Rule of law and social stability are important insofar as they allow foreign banks and bankers to feel safe and comfortable. China’s legal and financial systems are not yet ready to accommodate international banks although the Shanghai FreeTrade Zone is a significant attempt in that direction. Any other Hong Kong issue is a distraction from Beijing’s efforts to run a big, complicated country. Resolving Hong Kong’s fundamental political problem – the irreconcilable mix of civic freedom and a lack of democracy – doesn’t appear to be a high priority. That’s why the only response you hear to that historically unsustainable paradox is: follow the Basic Law. Expect Hong Kong’s political stability to careen and rattle like a minibus descending from the Peak. This will inevitably be bad for business. Peter Guy is a financial writer and former international banker
MARKET TALK TOUGH BUSINESS
MACROSCOPE NICHOLAS SPIRO
Name in the frame: CNOOC
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World Shale News@WorldShaleNews CNOOC lowers costs, increases offshore production https://t.co/d0p2kdiOIp
Bleak forecast for Chinese oil giants PetroChina, Cnooc __
PredictWallStreet CNOOC (CEO) Incurs Loss in 1H16; Revenues Decrease Y/Y (Zacks.com via COMTEX News Network) -- Chinese offshore giant, China National...
Sentifi.com
Note: All data as at 6pm yesterday
CURRENCY CALCULATOR Aust
Australia $ Britain £ Canada $
Britain Canada China 0.5750 0.9846
1.739
1.712
1.016 0.5840
China Rmb
0.197
0.1131
0.1937
Euro €
1.480 0.8507
1.457
Hong Kong $ India R
0.1693 0.0973 0.1667 0.0196
0.0112
5.084 8.84
Euro
HK
India
0.6759
5.908
1.176
10.28
51.13
Japan 76.54 133.1
51.93
77.74
867.1
10.056
15.05
167.9
8.741
75.64
113.2
1263
8.654
0.861 0.1144
0.0193 0.0994
1
0.0132 0.1156
1.0321 1.795
18.78
1.281
1.048
10.964
0.748
12.96
144.5 0.5208 0.1760
13.523
1.497
16.70 0.0602 0.0203
24.88
1.527
4.096
4.465 0.1290
0.2111 0.0144
0.4733
0.5160 0.0149
0.1410 0.0096
0.3161 0.3447 0.0100
0.0126 0.0009 0.0283 0.0309 0.0009
277.5
0.3380
25.97
11.53
0.3355
34.10
0.9925
0.4439
0.0129
73.61
2.158
24.08 0.0868 0.0293
2.253
827.2
1.008
77.41
34.36
0.4710 0.0626 0.5473
4.736
7.09
79.1
0.2850 0.0963
7.400
3.285 0.0956
8.021
69.41
103.92
1159.1
1.3367
6.903
0.9176
1.827 0.1247
0.0135
74.16
1.358 0.7806
1.1273
0.0012
0.694 0.0202
0.0415
0.9581
0.0912
0.1499
1.044 0.4633
49.17
0.0533
821.0
2.959
10.686 0.0385
2.981
4.177
76.83 0.0130
1.412
108.46
3.509 0.2394 10.381 0.7083
48.14
10.4600
1.401
2.241
2.444 0.0706
32.85
35.81
14.656
0.2101 0.0279 0.2442
2.113
3.163
35.28
0.1271 0.0430
3.302
1.465 0.0427 0.4461 0.0304
1.938
2.901
32.36
0.1166 0.0394
3.028
1.344
67.11 100.46
1121
104.85
46.54
0.887
7.754
4.038
1.365
0.0391 0.4092 0.0279 1.355
14.17
0.0215
0.0682
0.1927 0.0256 0.2240 6.673
0.7327
25.56
0.0413 0.0238 0.0407
1.29
8.57 0.2476 25.37
0.3302 0.0095
23.45
0.0379
1.313 0.7546
23.27
0.7137
Thailand Bt
0.0373
7.865
0.1351 0.0092 0.3029
0.0291 0.3044 0.0208 0.6824 0.7439
Taiwan $
0.0218
1.325 0.7738
5.188 39.03
0.094
49.54
4.926 0.6549
24.58
0.967
1.090 0.9173 31.76
0.7382
1.0344 0.0315 0.0289
34.62
US$ MARKET RATES Bid
0.7619
26.79
35.80
0.0136
1.4418
4.889 0.6500
0.1434
26.38 45.88
4.759
1.090
2.123 0.1449 15.972
0.0012
0.6400
0.5571 0.9540
24.20 42.08
US
0.0036
1.563
6.002 0.1747
Thai
11.15 0.0402
5.681
0.0162 0.0278
0.969
10.795 0.7366
61.67
5.724
0.0282
Singapore $
Switzerland Sfr
35.46
52.47
4.552
0.0191 0.1666
0.0125 0.0072
Philippines P
0.0926
16.62
138.95
1.056
0.6051 0.2045
0.0123 0.0636 0.0085 0.074
0.5529 0.9468
Pakistan R
South Africa rand
1.920
79.89
1.809
3.125
36.02
0.0599 0.0897
0.2197
1.040
5.351
S’pore S Africa Switz Taiwan
6.974 0.2030
0.6680
1.653
3.077
Phil
81.14
0.0129 0.0664 0.0088 0.0772
0.1869 0.3200
P’stan
15.713
0.0012 0.0060 0.0008 0.0069
0.9617
NZ
118.20
0.0131 0.0075
1485
SCMP
Figures are mid-price TT rates provided by HKAB Mal
1.539
0.0012 0.0007 0.3250
853.7
88.92
0.133 1.1620 7.522
South Korea W
New Zealand $
Korea
5.164 0.6865 6.000
Japan ¥
Malaysia RM
D
BKInformation.com Analysis of the most talked about stocks in Hong Kong and the mainland. Get it in real time on scmp.com/ Business
Low Prices Hit PetroChina, Cnooc https://t.co/Iy4nwmUTVJ https://t.co/yzGNWFKdJW
HK ($) Japan (¥) Euro (€) * UK (£) * Switzerland (SFr) Canada (C$) Australia (A$) * China (yuan) Indonesia (Rup) Malaysia (RM) Philippines (peso) New Zealand (NZ$) * Singapore (S$) S Korea (won) Taiwan (NT$) Thailand (baht) India (rupee) S Africa (rand)
Ask
7.7548 7.7550 100.4700 100.5200 1.1291 1.1292 1.3203 1.3208 0.9661 0.9665 1.2921 1.2925 0.7615 0.7617 6.6560 6.6620 13,240 13,243 4.0100 4.0200 46.4340 46.4540 0.7298 0.7301 1.3532 1.3536 1,115.07 1,117.08 31.6520 31.6620 34.5500 34.5700 67.0280 67.0480 14.2300 14.2400
* per unit. Rates at 10.30pm.
KEY LENDING RATES HK prime
5.000% UK bank base
0.250%
US fed fund
0.500% Euro prime
0.250%
US prime
3.500% Tokyo prime
Taiwan prime 2.616%
S’pore prime
Market calm masks growing uncertainties in global economy Investors should stay vigilant ahead of Jackson Hole meeting, US elections and key vote in Italy
CNOOC reports $1.16b net loss It was the company’s first half-year loss since it started trading on the Hong Kong exchange in 2000
Natural Gas World@NatGasWorld
August 25, 2016
▲105% ▲99% ▲67% ▲47% ▲42% ▲42%
gulfnews.com
PetroChina, Cnooc Facing Tough Times—Energy Journal https://t.co/5T49sCcVwN
Source:
▲278% ▲245% ▲236% ▲193%
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Jul 27
Illustration: Janice Leung
South China Morning Post
B7
BACK TO BUSINESS
1.475% 5.350%
uring the dog days of summer, trading volumes in stock markets are thin as investors head for the beaches to clear their heads. Yet even by the standards of summer lulls, the current calm in markets is remarkable, particularly given the risk and vulnerabilities facing the global economy. The facts speak for themselves. The yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds has been trading in a narrow range of 1.4 to 1.6 per cent since mid-July while the Vix index, a measure of the implied expected volatility of US equities, has barely budged since the beginning of last month and now stands at 13, just slightly above its pre-2008 financial crisis low of 10. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index, which on Wednesday closed just 0.7 per cent below its record high on August 15, has been rangebound since early July and now stands just 175 basis points above the level it fell to just after the Brexit vote. Even the Vstoxx, the European equivalent of the Vix index, has fallen to below 20 from 40 just before the vote and only slightly above its lowest level over the past five years. Make no mistake, volatility levels in the equity and bond markets have collapsed as investors become more confident that global interest rates will remain lower for longer amid hints from leading central banks, in particular Japan’s, that more stimulus measures may be forthcoming. Yet beneath the surface of market calm, there is mounting uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and the sustainability of a rally that stems almost entirely from liquidity support from central banks.
The most conspicuous sign of nervousness is in the foreignexchange markets, which have been anything but calm this year. The yen has gained a further 6.3 per cent against the US dollar in the past month and is now hovering near the psychologically important level of 100 yen to the greenback. The euro has also shot up since mid-July, strengthening 6.5 per cent against the dollar. Yet further appreciation of the yen and the euro – a major concern for the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, whose aggressive quantitative easing programmes are supposed to engender currency
There is an inescapable feeling that ‘Trump risk’ is still being underpriced weakness – is by no means assured as the odds of another US interest rate rise later this year increase. All eyes are on Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen’s much-anticipated speech at the annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, today, in which she may echo recent hawkish comments from other Fed policymakers. The dollar enjoyed its fourth consecutive day of gains on Wednesday as the probability of a rate rise next month increased to nearly 30 per cent (and more than 50 per cent in December).
If Yellen strikes a hawkish tone, emerging-market assets and commodities – already under strain this week – could come under pressure. A dovish speech, however, would lift the yen, increasing the likelihood of intervention by Japanese policymakers to weaken it. Either way, currency markets could become even more volatile next month, boding ill for broader sentiment. The other two risks that could put an end to the period of market calm are the US presidential elections in November and renewed tensions in Europe, particularly in Italy. It is striking that equity and bond markets remain so calm just 11 weeks before Donald Trump, the anti-establishment Republican presidential candidate, may become president. Even though Hillary Clinton, his Democratic opponent, has pulled ahead in the polls and is now the clear favourite to win the race, there is an inescapable feeling that “Trump risk” is still being underpriced. Meanwhile, another pivotal national referendum in Europe looms as Italy’s premier, Matteo Renzi, stakes his political future on a plebiscite on constitutional reforms in November. If he loses the vote – the latest polls suggest there is a good chance he will – Italy could be plunged into a political crisis, which inevitably would put its creaking banking sector under yet more strain, potentially leading to renewed tensions across the euro zone. Still, if even the Brexit vote only caused global markets to sell off for a few days, it is not surprising that investors have become complacent. Yet it is precisely when complacency reigns that extra vigilance is required. Nicholas Spiro is a partner of Lauressa Advisory
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