SOUTH AFRICA: AN ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRIAL POWERHOUSE FOR AFRICA South Africa needs an economic growth miracle. MIYELANI MKHABELA forecasts that maximising light and heavy manufacturing is at the source of such a miracle, as it has been for other emerging markets and advanced economies
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outh Africa is going through tough times and is realising that the solutions of the past can end up being the challenges of the future. Things can be better than they are, if South Africa prioritises an industry strategy and addresses the prolonged economic stagnation since 2008, the livelihoods crisis and youth unemployment – which is currently above 70% – as well as tackling the risk of state collapse, failure of public sector infrastructure and maintenance, and proliferation of illicit economic activity. The realisation of a capable state and capable human capital demands that the ruling party take the hard decisions of releasing or reducing the old leaders, replacing them with a good mix of young leaders, of fast-tracking service delivery, solving complex challenges to prepare the nation to be attractive to foreign direct
investment, and improving ease of doing business in South Africa. The African National Congress must refocus its primary purpose of economic development and expansion to be inclusive to all people. The ruling party must focus on plans for manufacturing and production that will include multiple industries, as diverse as the future of the automotive industry, chemicals, electronics, renewable energy components, healthcare and textiles. Light and heavy manufacturing has been the foremost source of economic growth and development, jobs and innovation in emerging markets and advanced economies. For sustainability purposes, we need to have maximum economic impact while highly managing environmental consequences. Global primary materials use is projected to almost double, from 89 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2019 to 178 Gt in 2060.
Non-metallic minerals – such as sand, gravel and limestone – represent the largest share of total materials use. These non-metallic minerals are forecasted to grow from 44 Gt to 86 Gt between 2017 and 2060. Metal use is smaller when measured in weight but is predicted to grow more rapidly, and metal extraction and processing is associated with large environmental impacts. The strongest growth in materials use is projected to occur in emerging and developing economies. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to undergo an economic and materials use growth spurt. Where economic growth rates are projected to be more modest, materials use grows between 1% and 2% per year on average. South Africa must position itself to be one of the leading industrial nations to contribute to the global primary and secondary materials production of 178 Gt in 2060.
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