Real Estate in the News — January 2023

Real Estate in the News January, 2023

• Despite a 50%+/- drop in the number of sales compared to 2021, prices increased 30%+ in most areas (as measured by average price per square foot)

• The average price per square foot for all Aspen sales was nearly $3,000 per sq ft for condos/townhomes and single family homes, this compares to about $1,500-$1,600 per square foot in Snowmass Village

• The average list to sales price discount was less than 4% - sellers continued to have the upper hand in pricing and negotiations

• The slowdown in sales activity finally gave way to increases in listing inventory, but currently available listings are still significantly below historic norms

• The short-term rental market continued so see high demand and

increased pricing, but there are new regulations and taxes that were introduced in 2022 that are currently working their way through the “system”

• 15+ sales over $30m in 2022 is a new record number of sales at the upperend of the real estate market – this reality significantly impacts average sales price, price per square foot (because many higher-end homes sell at inflated price per square foot) and total sales dollar volume

• Days on market continued to drop to historic lows – about 3+ months on average for condos/townhomes and 5+ months for single family homes (keep in mind most contracts involve 30+ days from contract to closing so the actual DOM is less than the statistics show)

“The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience ….. but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.” Martin Luther King

• Off-market sales will continue to play an important role in the local real estate market; being in the “know” has real value, and particularly at the upper-end of the market there are buyers and sellers who prefer discretion

• Short-term rentals will become less of a headline and more cumbersome to operate and manage thanks to the red tape (and new taxes) that the local governments have created, this may push some owner/landlords to consider more creative lease structures and/or focus only on 30+ day rentals

• The pricing discrepancy between Aspen and Snowmass Village is higher than the historical average – in the near term this might lead to continued pressure on prices in Snowmass Village as buyers seek out (relative) value

• The dichotomy between buyers looking for “a discount” versus buyers looking for a specific type of home will likely complicate pricing new listings more

than the local market has experienced over the past few years

• As listing inventory continues to rise (if indeed the current trend continues) then days on market will likely reverse course and begin to rise once again – marketing properties creatively and actively will be more in focus

• There are very few vacant land listings currently on the market in the upper Roaring Fork Valley, and with zero demolition permits available in Aspen until 2024 there will be an increased focus on remodel opportunities (and price pressure on homes that are strong remodel candidates)

• Uncertainty typically slows the pace of real estate transactions (case in point was the slowdown in sales last year)…as we head into 2023 with a strong local economy and excellent ski conditions it will be interesting to see how continued macroeconomic uncertainty will impact Aspen area real estate sales

Tory@ToryThomas.net 415 East Hyman Avenue, Aspen CO 81611 c 970-948-1341 | t 970-925-6060 | f 970-920-9993

Aspen

Five Candidates to Vie for 3 Council Spots

Applications were due at the end of December and five candidates will compete for three open Aspen City Council seats, the Aspen Daily News reported. Realtor Tracy Sutton will challenge the incumbent Mayor Torre, and Councilman Skippy Mesirow, local volunteer firefighter Sam Rose and developer Bill Guth will vie for two open council seats. The campaign season is expected to heat up in the coming weeks before voters head to the polls on March 7.

Torre will be running for his third consecutive two-year term as mayor. In 2019, Torre was elected mayor after coming up short in five previous races. He served two terms on the council before that. Sutton is a Colorado native who has operated Aspen Signature Vacation Rentals since 2004 and is an avid member of Aspen’s real estate and development community.

Penthouse Sale Breaks Price per Square Foot Record

A penthouse in downtown Aspen set a record for price by square footage when it sold on Dec. 21 for $25.875 million, the Aspen Daily News reported. The penthouse, located at 405 S. Monarch St., was purchased for $17.5 million on Dec. 21, 2021, according to Lane Johnson, an associate broker at Compass. The 3,429-square-foot property was then leased for one year for more than $1 million and resold exactly a year later, for $7,545 per square foot.

The price wasn’t the only piece that made the sale unique. In 2021, the buyer was able to immediately rent out the property for $85,000 a month, totaling more than $1 million in one year. The buyer-turned-seller, who was not publicly identified but is listed under Palmer Properties Colorado LLC, was then unexpectedly approached by several interested potential buyers over time, but did not sell until Aspen Mountain Holdings LLC offered enough for the penthouse—a rare property in downtown Aspen.

Ajax Cubs Lease Approved for Yellow

Brick Building

Aspen City Council approved a three-year lease between the city and Ajax Cubs, the new child care provider selected to operate four classrooms in the Yellow Brick Building, the Aspen Daily News reported. Ajax Cubs, a new program operated by the leadership of Ajax Adventure Camp, was selected by the city of Aspen after submitting an operations proposal in October. Ajax Cubs will operate one infant room, one toddler room and two preschool rooms, providing care for up to 50 children a day.

Yogi’s Set to Sign Lease for Affordable Aspen Eats

The city extended a notice of intent to award Brendan Berl and his concept Yogi’s to fill the vacant space at Rio Grande Place, formerly occupied by Taster’s Pizza, the Aspen Times reported. Lease terms, insurance, and other particulars will be negotiated in early January. The offer is not definite until negotiations are complete with city council’s final approval. City officials and Berl aim to have the space operational by summer 2023.

The menu is not yet finalized, but he is aiming for a price point averaging $14 a plate. According to proposal documents, alcohol will be priced at $8 wines, $6 well cocktails, and $5 beers. A mock-up menu includes items like nachos, fried onion strings, chicken sandwiches, reubens, and homemade ice-cream sandwiches. The kids’ menu will include dinosaur chicken nuggets.

New Listings 9 9 0.0% 175 153 - 12.6% Sold Listings 20 4 - 80.0% 154 80 - 48.1%

Median Sales Price* $8,950,000 $7,550,000 - 15.6%$9,475,000 $12,975,000 + 36.9% Average Sales Price* $15,706,273 $9,025,000 - 42.5%$12,219,436 $16,881,374 + 38.2%

Percent of List Price Received* 95.0% 100.5% + 5.8% 94.8% 95.4% + 0.6% Days on Market Until Sale 130 65 - 50.0% 136 108 - 20.6% Inventory of Homes for Sale 67 68 + 1.5% -Months Supply of Inventory 5.2 10.2 + 96.2% -* Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance. | Activity for one month can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size.

New Listings 11 13 + 18.2% 234 178 - 23.9% Sold Listings 21 4 - 81.0% 250 120 - 52.0%

Median Sales Price* $2,600,000 $5,362,500 + 106.3%$2,091,000 $3,137,500 + 50.0% Average Sales Price* $5,376,571 $9,543,750 + 77.5%$3,129,674 $4,562,875 + 45.8%

Percent of List Price Received* 99.4% 96.6% - 2.8% 97.3% 97.5% + 0.2% Days on Market Until Sale 62 19 - 69.4% 93 45 - 51.6% Inventory of Homes for Sale 32 52 + 62.5%

Woody Creek

New Listings 0 0 11 12 + 9.1% Sold Listings 1 0 - 100.0% 11 0 - 100.0%

Median Sales Price* $3,730,000 $0 - 100.0%$10,525,000 $0 - 100.0% Average Sales Price* $3,730,000 $0 - 100.0%$11,579,545 $0 - 100.0%

Percent of List Price Received* 99.5% 0.0% - 100.0%96.7% 0.0% - 100.0% Days on Market Until Sale 128 0 - 100.0% 187 0 - 100.0% Inventory of Homes for Sale 4 8 + 100.0% Months Supply of Inventory 2.9 0.0 - 100.0% * Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance. | Activity for one month can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size. Key

New

on Market Until

Median Sales Price –Townhouse-Condo Rolling 12-Month Calculation

$600,000

$400,000

Median Sales Price –Single Family Rolling 12-Month Calculation $0

$800,000 1-20171-20181-20191-20201-20211-2022

$200,000

Snowmass Village

Occupancy Rates Down from 2021

Hotel bookings are slightly behind 2021 so far in Aspen and Snowmass, according to the latest local occupancy report reported by the Aspen Times. Aspen and Snowmass combined occupancy rate for November was 21.7%, down from 28.8% in 2021. December’s performance tracked behind 2021 numbers, with a 47.6% paid occupancy. However, paid-occupancy rates

for the winter season — November to April — are at 42.5%, up 0.2% from last season.

January, February, and March are pacing up, while early- and late-season numbers are trailing behind. As of Nov. 30, Aspen’s November paid-occupancy rate was at 30.2%, compared to last year’s 33.4%. Snowmass was sitting at 12.4% paidoccupancy rate, compared to last year’s 19.7%.

New Listings 3 4 + 33.3% 65 53 - 18.5%

Sold Listings 5 0 - 100.0% 73 33 - 54.8%

Median Sales Price* $5,700,000 $0 - 100.0%$5,200,000 $6,272,500 + 20.6% Average Sales Price* $5,285,000 $0 - 100.0%$5,437,514 $7,265,287 + 33.6%

Percent of List Price Received* 96.2% 0.0% - 100.0%96.5% 95.6% - 0.9%

Days on Market Until Sale 59 0 - 100.0% 140 110 - 21.4%

Inventory of Homes for Sale 11 18 + 63.6%

Months Supply of Inventory 1.8 5.5 + 205.6%

* Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance. | Activity for one month can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size. Key Metrics 20212022

New Listings 7 55 + 685.7% 266 219 - 17.7% Sold Listings 14 6 - 57.1% 243 118 - 51.4%

Median Sales Price* $1,307,000 $1,600,000 + 22.4%$965,000 $1,485,000 + 53.9% Average Sales Price* $1,840,500 $2,433,333 + 32.2%$1,438,090 $2,036,726 + 41.6%

Percent of List Price Received* 98.7% 93.2% - 5.6% 97.9% 97.2% - 0.7% Days on Market Until Sale 35 134 + 282.9% 90 46 - 48.9% Inventory of Homes for Sale 19 88 + 363.2% Months Supply of Inventory 0.9 8.9 + 888.9%

Median

Old Snowmass

New Listings 1 5 + 400.0% 28 27 - 3.6%

Sold Listings 3 0 - 100.0% 25 21 - 16.0%

Median Sales Price* $3,250,000 $0 - 100.0%$1,775,000 $2,800,000 + 57.7%

Average Sales Price* $3,050,000 $0 - 100.0%$3,213,370 $6,081,483 + 89.3%

Percent of List Price Received* 91.0% 0.0% - 100.0%95.4% 95.2% - 0.2%

Days on Market Until Sale 279 0 - 100.0% 109 77 - 29.4%

Inventory of Homes for Sale 6 8 + 33.3% -Months Supply of Inventory 2.9 3.8 + 31.0%

* Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance. | Activity for one month can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size.

New Listings 0 0 3 1 - 66.7%

Sold Listings 1 0 - 100.0% 4 2 - 50.0%

Median Sales Price* $600,000 $0 - 100.0%$522,500 $526,725 + 0.8% Average Sales Price* $600,000 $0 - 100.0%$906,250 $526,725 - 41.9%

Percent of List Price Received* 92.3% 0.0% - 100.0%96.3% 99.7% + 3.5% Days on Market Until Sale 108 0 - 100.0% 82 149 + 81.7% Inventory of Homes for Sale 0 0 Months Supply of Inventory 0.0 0.0 * Does not account for seller

Basalt

New Fire Station Offers More Protection

A new fire station will provide better fire and medical service to a somewhat secluded corner of the midvalley and provide Roaring Fork Fire Rescue with three additional affordable housing units, the Aspen Daily News reported. Station 46 along West Sopris Creek Road opened with a firehouse and three residences that cost about $2.87 million. Residents of Sopris Mountain Ranch and surrounding properties got the effort rolling due to concerns about their homeowners’ insurance policies soaring or

even getting canceled by carriers. The luxury subdivision was further than 5 road miles from the nearest fire station, so insurance ratings were the worst for the area.

Residents of the West Sopris Creek area raised $937,000 in private donations for the new fire station. The Colorado Department of Local Affairs provided a $994,000 grant from its Energy-Mineral Impact Assistance Fund. Pitkin County commissioners contributed $150,000 in a housing funds grant. Roaring Fork Fire Rescue covered the remaining $793,000.

New Listings 3 2 - 33.3% 74 70 - 5.4%

Sold Listings 9 1 - 88.9% 76 34 - 55.3%

Median Sales Price*

$1,450,000 $2,000,000 + 37.9%$1,472,500 $1,662,500 + 12.9% Average Sales Price* $1,830,556 $2,000,000 + 9.3%$2,049,479 $2,055,647 + 0.3%

Percent of List Price Received* 94.4% 95.3% + 1.0% 95.9% 96.5% + 0.6%

Days on Market Until Sale 107 46 - 57.0% 110 53 - 51.8% Inventory of Homes for Sale 15 14 - 6.7% -Months Supply of Inventory 2.4 4.9 + 104.2% * Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance. | Activity for one month can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size.

Townhouse/Condo

Key Metrics

20212022

New Listings 21 2 - 90.5% 123 99 - 19.5% Sold Listings 3 1 - 66.7% 85 78 - 8.2%

Median Sales Price* $585,000 $855,000 + 46.2%$714,000 $942,500 + 32.0% Average Sales Price* $596,667 $855,000 + 43.3%$820,796 $1,160,089 + 41.3%

Percent of List Price Received* 97.9% 95.5% - 2.5% 99.6% 100.3% + 0.7% Days on Market Until Sale 50 28 - 44.0% 44 32 - 27.3% Inventory of Homes for Sale 30 26 - 13.3% Months Supply of Inventory 4.2 4.0 - 4.8%

Median

$900,000

$800,000

$700,000

$600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$1,000,000 1-20171-20181-20191-20201-20211-2022

Percent Change from Previous Year Thru 12-2021Thru 12-2022 Percent Change from Previous Year

New Listings 1 4 + 300.0% 40 37 - 7.5% Sold Listings 4 1 - 75.0% 42 26 - 38.1%

Median Sales Price* $1,573,750 $1,887,500 + 19.9%$1,631,250 $1,742,500 + 6.8% Average Sales Price* $2,515,625 $1,887,500 - 25.0%$1,859,383 $2,190,911 + 17.8%

Percent of List Price Received* 92.8% 96.8% + 4.3% 96.0% 97.4% + 1.5% Days on Market Until Sale 112 76 - 32.1% 98 119 + 21.4% Inventory of Homes for Sale 9 14 + 55.6% Months Supply of Inventory 2.6 5.4 + 107.7% * Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance. | Activity for one month can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size. Key Metrics

New

Carbondale

Development Approved by Commissioners

The Garfield County Commissioners unanimously voted to approve a preliminary plan for the Eagle Ridge subdivision with 19 townhouses and 16 single-family units on 7.3 acres near Colorado Mountain College’s Spring Valley campus, the Sopris Sun reported. Three townhouses and one single-family home will be deed restricted.

Eagle Ridge is part of the Los Amigos/ Elk Springs Planned Unit Development (PUD), originally approved in 1979. The site was partially developed in the early

‘80s and now resembles a ghost town with the ruins of unfinished foundations and a partially graded landscape bisected by Auburn Ridge Lane. The developer plans to remove the foundations and improve the road.

The Elk Springs Homeowner Association will supply water to Eagle Ridge residents through a water allotment contract with the Basalt Water Conservancy District. The Spring Valley Sanitation District will provide wastewater services. Construction will begin once infrastructure improvements are completed.

New Listings 7 10 + 42.9% 200 190 - 5.0%

Sold Listings 14 7 - 50.0% 181 122 - 32.6%

Median Sales Price*

$1,573,750 $960,000 - 39.0%$1,425,000 $1,552,500 + 8.9% Average Sales Price* $1,889,148 $1,154,357 - 38.9%$1,546,287 $1,826,720 + 18.1%

Percent of List Price Received* 97.6% 96.1% - 1.5% 98.0% 97.5% - 0.5% Days on Market Until Sale 87 50 - 42.5% 57 73 + 28.1% Inventory of Homes for Sale 42 48 + 14.3% -Months Supply of Inventory 2.8 4.7 + 67.9%

* Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance. | Activity for one month can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size.

Key Metrics

New Listings 0 0 84 71 - 15.5% Sold Listings 9 4 - 55.6% 105 64 - 39.0%

Median Sales Price* $1,086,818 $951,600 - 12.4%$650,000 $870,500 + 33.9% Average Sales Price* $1,119,499 $1,089,550 - 2.7%$742,550 $998,176 + 34.4%

Percent of List Price Received* 99.6% 91.7% - 7.9%100.0% 99.0% - 1.0% Days on Market Until Sale 15 83 + 453.3% 52 49 - 5.8% Inventory of Homes for Sale 4 13 + 225.0% Months Supply of Inventory 0.5 2.4 + 380.0%

Median

$800,000

$700,000

$600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$900,000 1-20171-20181-20191-20201-20211-2022

Glenwood Springs

Trailer Park Purchased for Affordable Housing

A Carbondale-based social justice nonprofit group purchased a 20-unit mobile-home park outside of Glenwood Springs for $2.4 million in an attempt to buck the trend of displacement and affordable-housing destruction at the hands of private-equity groups buying Colorado parks, the Aspen Daily News reported. The Roaring Fork Community Development Corp. — the affordable housing arm of the nonprofit Manaus — intends to transfer ownership in coming years to 3-Mile Mobile Home

Park’s residents, who own their trailers but pay rent for the land on which they sit.

The sale is scheduled to close April 30, while Manaus is aiming to transfer ownership to its tenants in three to five years. The pilot project aims to be a replicable model. The 55 parks in the region are home to about 3,000 homes where between 15,000 and 20,000 locals live. The Manaus strategy begins with engaging owners and residents before owners list a park for sale. That keeps the nonprofit from competing directly with deep-pocketed outside investors.

Glenwood Springs

New Listings 6 6 0.0% 233 203 - 12.9% Sold Listings 13 8 - 38.5% 222 161 - 27.5%

Median Sales Price* $950,000 $1,012,500 + 6.6%$770,000 $870,000 + 13.0% Average Sales Price* $888,507 $1,225,542 + 37.9%$840,357 $981,817 + 16.8%

Percent of List Price Received* 98.2% 93.8% - 4.5% 99.2% 97.9% - 1.3% Days on Market Until Sale 50 63 + 26.0% 37 50 + 35.1%

Inventory of Homes for Sale 30 31 + 3.3% Months Supply of Inventory 1.6 2.3 + 43.8%

* Does not account for seller concessions and/or down payment assistance. | Activity for one month can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size.

New Listings 6 5 - 16.7% 102 85 - 16.7% Sold Listings 14 1 - 92.9% 96 85 - 11.5%

Median Sales Price* $445,500 $458,000 + 2.8%$398,675 $530,000 + 32.9% Average Sales Price* $448,036 $458,000 + 2.2%$402,459 $531,225 + 32.0%

Percent of List Price Received* 99.9% 100.0% + 0.1%100.1% 98.8% - 1.3%

Days on Market Until Sale 121 8 - 93.4% 38 56 + 47.4% Inventory of Homes for Sale 12 11 - 8.3% -Months Supply of Inventory 1.5 1.4 - 6.7% -* Does not account for seller concessions

Pitkin County

Craig Ranch Preserved with Conservation Easement

Pitkin County commissioners enthusiastically approved a $6.35 million contract for the purchase of conservation easements on Craig Ranch in Woody Creek, the Aspen Daily News reported.

For the investment, Pitkin County will acquire conservation easements on nearly 800 acres from Michael and Jennifer Craig. The Craigs also will extinguish rights to develop two houses on the property — one at 10,250 square feet and another at 5,750 square feet.

The funds will come from county open space program coffers.

Carol Craig and her family bought the ranch in 1964. As part of estate settlement in recent years, portions of the ranch went to her three children. Kathleen Craig sold her portion. Michael and Jennifer approached the county on the conservation deal. An appraisal by the Craigs and county showed the elimination of two development sites and conservation restrictions would decrease the value of the ranch by $9,075,000. The county will pay 70% of that loss value. The Craigs will pursue state tax credits for the other 30%.

TDR Program Preserved Close to 10,000 Backcountry Acres, So Far

About 9,500 acres of the Pitkin County backcountry have been sterilized from development due to the transfer of development rights over the last 25 years, the Aspen Daily News reported. The tradeoff is that there is now more development inside the urban growth boundary as builders used those TDRs to increase home size.

There have been 410 TDRs created since the program was started in the 1990s. Of the 410 TDRs that have been created, 281 have been used and they are no longer in circulation. That leaves 129 potentially on the market. Meanwhile, approvals have been granted to use 210 TDRs on receiver sites. The TDR price hit a record $2.1 million in two separate transactions in 2022. Sales prices ranged from $950,000 to $2.1 million this year, up from $375,000 to $1.8 million just one year ago.

Potential for 1,000 More Homes in Pitkin County

Pitkin County government has the toughest growth-control measures in the Roaring Fork Valley yet the potential exists for development of between 1,002 and 1,661 additional homes according to county planning staff and reported by the Aspen Daily News. There is little the county can do to reduce the development potential, which is based on existing zoning and regulations. However, the government could take action to reduce the affiliated square footage if it wanted to lessen the impacts of larger, luxury homes —

including high rates of energy consumption, construction waste and job creation.

In the rural areas of unincorporated Pitkin County, there is the potential for 1,304 more dwellings. However, the “likely” development scenario is for 786 dwellings. The study didn’t guess at a timeframe for the development. The Crystal Valley has a likely remaining buildout potential of 271 units, the Snowmass-Capitol Creek area has potential for 196 and Woody Creek is at 87. The remaining units are scattered around rural areas.

42,000 Bike Trips Counted to Maroon Bells

A recently installed automated bike counter recorded nearly 42,000 trips to and from the Maroon Bells Scenic Area in 2022 — so much traffic that Pitkin County is currently studying the feasibility of adding a bike lane on Maroon Creek Road to improve safety, the Aspen Daily News reported. This increase is mostly due to the rising popularity of e-bikes making the otherwise strenuous ride to the Bells more accessible to people who probably would not be making the trip without pedal assistance.

From June through October, 41,870 bikes and e-bikes were counted going up and down the road to the Bells. Data includes all bikes going either direction, meaning that one bike will be counted twice on a round trip to the top of Maroon Creek Road and back, so the total number equates to 20,935 round trips. That averages out to about 145 daily round trips.