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ย ONHGHNL GRODUL]DV\RQX D]DOWPDGD ID\GDOร RODELOPHNWHGLU 1HXPDQQ YH 9RQ
+DJHQ LOH \ร OODUร QGD ย ONH\L NDSVD\DQ oDOร รบPDODUร QGD
HQIODV\RQ KHGHIOHPHVLQLQ HQIODV\RQD NDUรบร HWNLQ ELU SROLWLND ROGXรทX VRQXFXQD
YDUPDNWDGร UODU รธOJLOL ย ONHOHUGH HQIODV\RQ KHGHIOHPHVLQH JHoLOGLNWHQ VRQUD
HQIODV\RQ YH IDL] RUDQODUร QGDNL R\QDNOร รทร Q Gย รบย N HQIODV\RQOD ELUOLNWH D]DOGร รทร
\DUJร Vร QD YDUPร รบODUGร U
'ย รบย N GRODUL]DV\RQ KHGHILQH XODรบPDN LoLQ XOXVDO SDUDQร Q GHรทHU
ND\Eร Qร Q HQIODV\RQ ย ]HULQH HWNLVL RODQ G|YL] NXUX HQIODV\RQ JHoLรบNHQOLรทLQLQ
\ย NVHN ROPDPDVร JHUHNPHNWHGLU (QIODV\RQ KHGHIOHPHVL X\JXOD\DQ DQFDN
GRODUL]DV\RQ
VHYL\HVLQLQ
\ย NVHN
ROGXรทX
ย ONHOer,
dรถviz
kurundaki
GDOJDODQPDODUร Q HQIODV\RQ KHGHIL ย ]HULQGHNL ROXPVX] HWNLOHUL QHGHQL\OH EX WLS dalgalanmalardan zarar gรถrmektedirler (Yeyati ve Sturzeneger, 2003). Dรถviz
NXUXQGDQ HQIODV\RQD JHoLรบNHQOLรทLQ \ย NVHN ROGXรทX EX ย ONHOHUGH XOXVDO
SDUDQร Q GHรทHU ND\Eร HQIODV\RQ RUDQร Qร Q DUWPDVร QD \RO DoPDNWDGร U (รทHU
JHoLรบNHQOLN \ย NVHNVH IL\DW LVWLNUDUร Qร VDรทODUNHQ UHHO G|YL] NXUX R\QDNOร รทร Qร
DUWร UDELOPHN ]RUODรบPDNWDGร U
%XQD NDUรบร Oร N HQIODV\RQGDNL R\QDNOร รทร Gย รบย N HQIODV\RQ LOH D]DOWPD\ร
KHGHIOH\HQ ELU LVWLNUDU SODQร LVWLNUDUOร ELU UHHO G|YL] NXUX ROXรบWXUGXรทX mรผddetรงe dolarizasyonu azaltmada yetersiz kalabilmektedir. Bu durum, รถzellikle reel dรถviz kurunu hedefleyen โ emekleyen kur rejimiโ iรงin geรงerli
ROPDNWDGร U %X QHGHQOH G|YL] NXUX UHMLPLQLQ HVQHNOLรทLQL DUWร UPDN
GRODUL]DV\RQOD Pย FDGHOH Doร Vร QGDQ \DUGร PFร RODELOPHNWHGLU %X \DNODรบร P
JHOLรบPHNWH RODQ ย ONHOHUGHNL GRODUL]DV\RQ KLVWHULVLQLQ Doร NODQPDVร Doร Vร QGDQ
GD |QHP DU] HWPHNWHGLU ]LUD EX ย ONHOHU JHQHOOLNOH G|YL] NXUXQD GD\DOร LVWLNUDU
SURJUDPODUร X\JXODPร รบODU YH EX QHGHQOH GH GRODUL]DV\RQX D]DOWPDGD
EDรบDUร Vร ] ROPXรบODUGร U
6LVWHPGH G|YL] NXUXQD LOLรบNLQ JL]OL YH\D Doร N JDUDQWL ROPDVร
GXUXPXQGD HNRQRPLN ELULPOHU \DEDQFร SDUD WXWPD HรทLOLPL J|VWHUPHNWHGLUOHU
gUQHรทLQ PHUNH] EDQNDVร WDUDIร QGDQ Vย Uย QHQ NXU UHMLPL X\JXODQGร รทร QGD \DQL
Doร N JDUDQWL GXUXPXQGD G|YL] NXUX R\QDNOร รทร D]DODFDรทร QGDQ GRODUL]DV\RQ
HรทLOLPL DUWDELOPHNWHGLU (NRQRPLN ELULPOHU QDNLW GH GDKLO ROPDN ย ]HUH
\DEDQFร SDUD FLQVL YDUOร NODU WXWDUDN SRUWI|\OHULQL |QJ|Uย OHPH\HQ HQIODV\RQ
รบRNXQGDQ
NRUXPD\D
oDOร รบPDNWDGร UODU
$\Uร FD
JHUoHNOHรบHELOHFHN
GHYDOย DV\RQODU GD \DEDQFร SDUD FLQVL YDUOร NODUร Q JHWLULOHULQL DUWร UPDNWDGร U
(LFKHQJUHHQ YH +DXVPDQQ ยถD J|UH VDELW NXU UHMLPOHUL \DEDQFร SDUD cinsinden borรงlananlar iรงin gelecekteki dรถviz kurunu garantiOHGLรทL LoLQ ยณDKODNL
WHKOLNH\Hยด QHGHQ ROPDNWDGร U %XQD NDUรบร Oร N PHUNH] EDQNDODUร WDUDIร QGDQ G|YL]
NXUX LoLQ KHUKDQJL ELU WDDKKย Gย Q \DSร OPDGร รทร GDOJDOร G|YL] NXUX JLEL VLVWHPOHUGH GRODUL]DV\RQXQ ]DPDQOD JHULOHPHVL EHNOHQPHNWHGLU (VQHN ELU
dรถviz kuru sistePLQLQ X\JXODQPDVร GXUXPXQGD UHHO YH QRPLQDO G|YL] NXUX
GDOJDODQDUDN XOXVDO SDUD GHรทHU ND]DQPDNWD YH\D GHรทHU ND\EHWPHNWHGLU
%|\OH ELU G|YL] NXUX UHMLPLQGH HNRQRPLN ELULPOHU LoLQ \DEDQFร SDUD
\DWร Uร PODUร Q ULVNL \ย NVHNWLU
8]XQ \ร OODU \DEDQFร SDUD FLQVLQGHQ YDUOร NODU WXWDUDN \ย NVHN YH ULVNVL]
JHWLUL HOGH HWPH\H DOร รบPร รบ HNRQRPLN ELULPOHULQ SRUWI|\ WHUFLKOHULQL Nร VD
]DPDQGD GHรทLรบWLUPHOHUL ROGXNoD Jย oWย U 'RODUL]DV\RQ VHYL\HVL \ย NVHN RODQ
ย ONHOHUGH EX GXUXP \DEDQFร SDUD EDรทร POร Oร รทร RODUDN WDQร PODQDELOLU YH
dรผ]HOPHVL ]DPDQ DOPDNWDGร U 'RODUL]DV\RQX D]DOWPDN LoLQ \DEDQFร SDUD
WXWPDQร Q YH\D \DEDQFร SDUD FLQVLQGHQ \DWร Uร P \DSPDQร Q ULVNL G|YL] NXUX
JDUDQWLVL D]DOWร ODUDN DUWร Uร OPDOร EXQD HN RODUDN XOXVDO SDUD WXWPDQร Q YH\D
XOXVDO SDUD FLQVLQGHQ \DWร Uร P \DSPDQร Q Uiski, enflasyon makul dรผzeylerde
NRQWURO DOWร QD DOร QDUDN D]DOWร OPDOร Gร U $QFDN EX NRรบXOODU DOWร QGD HNRQRPLN
ELULPOHU \DEDQFร SDUD FLQVLQGHQ YDUOร NODU WXWDUDN G|YL] NXUX ULVNL DOGร NODUร Qร
DQODPDNWDGร UODU %|\OH ELU HNRQRPLN SROLWLND X\JXODPDVร \OD ELUOLNWH VLVWHPGH
|UWย N
JDUDQWLQLQ
NDOGร Uร OGร รทร QD
HNRQRPLN
ELULPOHULQ
LQDQGร Uร OPDVร \OD
GRODUL]DV\RQ D]DOWร ODELOLU $\Uร FD WDKPLQ HGLOHELOLU YH LVWLNUDUOร HQIODV\RQ
RUDQODUร SRUWI|\OHULQL XOXVDO SDUD OHKLQH GHรทLรบWLUHQ \DWร Uร PFร ODUD LNQD HGLFL YH
VDSPDVร ] UHHO JHWLUL VXQDFDNWร U
5HQQKDFN YH 1R]DNL ย ONH\L NDSVD\DQ oDOร รบPDODUร QGD
SRUWI|\ \DNODรบร Pร Qร GHVWHNOH\HQ VRQXoODU HOGH HWPLรบOHUGLU dDOร รบPDQร Q
VRQXoODUร QD J|UH HQIODV\RQ RUDQร Qร Q UHHO G|YL] NXUXQD J|UH GHรทLรบLPLQL
J|VWHUHQ SRUWI|\ GHรทLรบNHQLQGHNL \ย ]GH DUWร รบ GRODUL]DV\RQGD \ย ]GH
DUWร รบD QHGHQ ROPDNWD YH HQIODV\RQ Gย ]H\LQGHNL DUWร รบODU GRODUL]DV\RQX
DUWร UPDNWDGร U $\Uร FD Jย oVย ] NXUXPODUร Q YDUOร รทร Qร Q HNRQRPLN SROLWLNDODUร Q
HWNLQOLรทLQL D]DOWWร รทร GRODUL]DV\RQXQ \ย NVHN ROGXรทX ย ONHOHUGH Kย Nย PHWLQ รถngรถrรผlemH\HQ HQIODV\RQ \DUDWWร รทร YH E|\OHFH XOXVDO SDUD FLQVLQGHQ ILQDQVDO
YDUOร NODUร Q GHรทHULQLQ HUR]\RQD XรทUDWร OGร รทร LOHUL Vย Uย OPHNWHGLU %XQD HN RODUDN
HNRQRPLGH PHYFXW EXOXQDQ Jย oVย ] NXUXPODU V|]OHรบPHOHULQ \DSWร Uร P Jย Fย Qย
]D\ร IODWPDNWDGร U 'H OD 7RUUH YH 6FPXOker, 2004). Bu รงerรงevede, enflasyon
KHGHILQH RGDNODQDQ YH KHGHIOHQHQ HQIODV\RQD XODรบPDN LoLQ KHU Wย UOย |QOHPL
DOPDNWDQ oHNLQPH\HFHN ELU PHUNH] EDQNDVร Qร Q YDUOร รทร HNRQRPLN ELULPOHU LoLQ
Jย YHQ XQVXUX RODFDNWร U %DรบND ELU GH\LรบOH EDรทร PVร ] ELU PHUNH] EDQNDVร
SROLWLN HWNLOHUH PDUX] NDODQ PHUNH] EDQNDVร QD Nร \DVOD GDKD D] HQIODV\RQ
\DUDWร OPDVร QD L]LQ YHUHFHN E|\OHFH GRODUL]DV\RQXQ D]DOPDVร QD NDWNร GD
EXOXQDFDNWร U
<H\DWL oDOร รบPDVร QGD SRUWI|\ \DNODรบร Pร OHKLQH VRQXoODU EXOPXรบ
ROXS EX VRQXoODU ]D\ร I NXUXPVDO \DSร NDOLWHVLQLQ GRODUL]DV\RQX DUWร UGร รทร Qร GD gรถstermektedir. Nitekim, Rennhack ve Nozaki (2006) de OECD รผlkelerini
NDSVD\DQ PDNDOHOHULQGH NXUXPVDO NDOLWHQLQ GRODUL]DV\RQX HWNLOHGLรทL \|Qย QGH
VRQXoODU HOGH HWPLรบOHUGLU 'ย Q\D %DQNDVร \ร Oร QGDQ EHUL NXUXP NDOLWHVLQH
LOLรบNLQ J|VWHUJHOHU JHOLรบWLUPLรบWLU %XQODU SROLWLN LVWLNUDU Eย URNUDWLN HWNLQOLN
Gย ]HQOH\LFL NXUXP NDOLWHVL NDQXQ Jย Fย Uย รบYHW NRQWUROย YH Jย YHQLOLUOLNWLU
.XUXPVDO NDOLWHGHNL EHOLUJLQ DUWร รบODU HNRQRPLGHNL Jย YHQL DUWร UGร รทร QGDQ
GRODUL]DV\RQX D]DOWPDNWDGร U
*XLGRWWL YH 5RGULJXH] LVH DVร O QHGHQLQ ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHรบPH
ROGXรทXQX LOHUL Vย UPHNWH YH HQIODV\RQXQ \ย NVHN ROPDPDVร GXUXPXQGD ELOH
ILQDQVDO IDDOL\HWOHUGHNL Nร Vร WODUร Q NDOGร Uร OPDVร \OD GRODUL]DV\RQXQ LYPH ND]DQGร รทร Qร EHOLUWPHNWHGLU dHWLQ 7ย UNL\HยถGH Gย รบย N HQIODV\RQ
Gย ]H\OHULQH XODรบPDGDQ ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHรบPH \DรบDQPDVร Qร Q \ย NVHN
GRODUL]DV\RQX GHVWHNOHGLรทL VRQXFXQD XODรบPDNWDGร U *OREDOL]DV\RQ YH \HQL
WHNQRORMLN JHOLรบPHOHU D] JHOLรบPLรบ ย ONHOHUGHNL GRODUL]DV\RQ VRUXQXQXQ
FLGGL\HWLQL DUWร UPDNWDGร U 'RODUL]DV\RQGDQ NXUWXOPDN LoLQ \DVDNODPD
\|QWHPLQLQ X\JXQ ROGXรทX LOHUL Vย Uย OHELOLU DQFDN E|\OH ELU GXUXPGD ILQDQVDO
IDDOL\HWOHULQ ND\ร W Gร รบร QD ND\PD ULVNL YH ILQDQVDO VLVWHPLQ GDUDOPD ULVNL RUWD\D
oร NPDNWDGร U
'RODUL]DV\RQX gOoPH <|QWHPOHUL 'RODUL]DV\RQXQ oRN IDUNOร oHรบLWOHUL ROGXรทX JLEL HNRQRPLGHNL
GRODUL]DV\RQ VHYL\HVLQL DPSLULN RODUDN |OoPHQLQ GH IDUNOร \|QWHPOHUL
PHYFXWWXU %XQODU
D <DEDQFร SDUD FLQVLQGHQ PHYGXDWODUร Q JHQLรบ SDUD DU]ร QD RUDQร E 7RSODP Gร รบ ERUFXQ *D\UL 6DIL 0LOOL +DVร OD\D *60+ RUDQร F <DEDQFร SDUD\D HQGHNVOL YH\D \DEDQFร SDUD FLQVLQGHQ GHYOHW ERUoODUร Qร Q
WRSODP GHYOHW ERUoODUร QD RUDQร
G hONHGH \HUOHรบLNOHULQ \DEDQFร SDUD FLQVLQGHQ WXWWXNODUร YDUOร NODUร Q \LQH
\HUOHรบLNOHU WDUDIร QGDQ WXWXODQ WRSODP YDUOร NODUD RUDQร
H <DEDQFร SDUD FLQVLQGHQ PHYGXDWODUร Q WRSODP PHYGXDWODUD RUDQร I 'RODรบร PGDNL WRSODP QDNLW \DEDQFร SDUDQร Q GRODรบร PGDNL \HUOL SDUD\D
RUDQร Gร U
+HU QH NDGDU \XNDUร GD VD\ร ODQODU OLWHUDWย UGH JHQHO NDEXO J|UPย รบ
dolarizasyon gรถstergeleri olsalar da, bu YHULOHULQ ELU Nร VPร Qร WRSODPDN
Pย PNย Q GHรทLOGLU YH\D EX YHULOHU HOGH HGLOVHOHU ELOH GRODรบร PGDNL \DEDQFร
SDUD WDKPLQOHULQGH ROGXรทX JLEL YHULOHULQ Jย YHQLOLUOLรทL NRQXVXQGD รบย SKHOHU
YDUGร U *HQHOOLNOH ELU HNRQRPLGH GRODรบร PGDNL \DEDQFร SDUD\D LOLรบNLQ YHUL
\RNWXU YH GROD\ร Vร \OD SDUD LNDPHVL |Ooย OHPHPHNWHGLU 9HJK %X
QHGHQOH HNRQRPL \D]ร Qร QGD \DEDQFร SDUD FLQVLQGHQ PHYGXDWODUร Q JHQLรบ
SDUD DU]ร QD RUDQร YH\D \DEDQFร SDUD FLQVLQGHQ PHYGXDWODUร Q WRSODP
PHYGXDWODUD RUDQร DPSLULN oDOร รบPDODUGD GRODUL]DV\RQ รถlรงรผtรผ
olarak
NXOODQร OPDNWDGร U %X oDOร รบPDGD GD \DEDQFร SDUD FLQVL PHYGXDWODUร Q WRSODP
PHYGXDWODUD RUDQร 7ย UNL\H LoLQ GRODUL]DV\RQ J|VWHUJHVL RODUDN NXOODQร ODFDNWร U 'RODUL]DV\RQXQ (WNLOHUL
'RODUL]DV\RQXQ SDUD WDOHEL YH HQIODV\RQ ILQDQVDO NUL]OHU SDUD
SROLWLNDVร VHQ\RUDM YH HNRQRPLN Eย \ย PH ย ]HULQGH ROXPVX] HWNLOHUL PHYFXWWXU
3DUD SROLWLNDVร Qร Q X]XQ G|QHPGHNL KHGHIL IL\DW LVWLNUDUร QD XODรบPDN YH
EX LVWLNUDUร Vย UGย UPHNWLU %X DPDFD XODรบPDN LoLQ QRPLQDO SDUD DU]ร UHHO SDUD
talebindeki bรผyรผme kadar arWร Uร OPDNWDGร U (รทHU SDUD WDOHEL R\QDN YH
GROD\ร Vร \OD WDKPLQ HGLOPHVL Jย o ELU GHรทLรบNHQ LVH IL\DW LVWLNUDUร QGDQ VDSPDODU
PH\GDQD JHOHELOPHNWHGLU
%DVLW ELU SDUD WDOHEL IRQNVL\RQX DรบDรทร GDNL JLEL J|VWHULOHELOLU ,Q 0 3 = ฮฒ + ฮฒ ,Q \ โ ฮฒ ) ;
ร , ร ร >
%X GHQNOHPGH UHHO SDUD WDOHEL LOH UHHO JD\UL VDIL PLOOL KDVร OD DUDVร QGD
SR]LWLI ELU LOLรบNL PHYFXWWXU $QFDN UHHO SDUD WDOHEL LOH IDL] RUDQร DUDVร QGDNL LOLรบNL
QHJDWLIGLU
(รทHU ELU HNRQRPLGH GRODUL]DV\RQ PHYFXW LVH YH ย ONHGHNL \HUOHรบLNOHU
KHP XOXVDO KHP GH \DEDQFร SDUD WDOHS HGL\RUODUVD R ]DPDQ XOXVDO SDUD
WDOHEL LVWLNUDUVร ] KDOH JHOHELOLU YH EX GXUXPGD UHHO SDUD WDOHEL DรบDรทร GDNL JLEL
\D]ร ODELOLU
,Q 0 3 W = ฮฒ + ฮฒ ,Q \ W โ ฮฒ )W โ ฮฒ 6 ; W +
ร , ร ร ร >
%X GHQNOHPGH UHHO SDUD WDOHEL\OH XOXVDO SDUDQร Q EHNOHQHQ GHรทHU ND\Eร
DUDVร QGD QHJDWLI ELU LOLรบNL PHYFXWWXU (รทHU HNRQRPLGH SDUD LNDPHVL VRUXQX
YDUVD XOXVDO SDUD WDOHEL KHP \XUW LoL KHP GH \XUW Gร รบร HWNLOHUH GDKD GX\DUOร
KDOH JHOPHNWHGLU %X QHGHQOH GRODUL]DV\RQXQ YDUOร รทร SDUD WDOHELQL GDKD
R\QDN KDOH JHWLUPHNWH YH SDUD WDOHELQLQ WDKPLQL ]RUODรบPDNWDGร U
2RPHV YH 2KQVRUJH GRODUL]DV\RQ GLQDPLNOHUL QHGHQL\OH
5XV\DยถGD SDUD WDOHELQLQ \ย NVHN Gย ]H\GH LVWLNUDUVร ] ROGXรทXQX LOHUL Vย UPHNWHGLUOHU <DSWร NODUร oDOร รบPD\D J|UH GRODรบร PGDNL \DEDQFร SDUD PLNWDUร Qร
hariรง WXWDQ SDUD WDOHEL WDQร PODUร LOH XOXVDO SDUDQร Q QRPLQDO GHรทHU ND\Eร
DUDVร QGDNL LOLรบNL QHJDWLI RODUDN EXOXQPXรบWXU $\Uร FD SDUD WDOHEL GRODรบร PGDNL
\DEDQFร SDUD PLNWDUร GD J|]|Qย QH DOร QGร รทร QGD GDKD LVWLNUDUOร KDOH JHOPHNWHGLU $QFDN \DEDQFร SDUD PLNWDUร Qร LoHUHQ JHQLรบ WDQร POร SDUD
DU]ร QGDNL DUWร รบODU HQIODV\RQX Kร ]ODQGร UPDNWDGร U %X GXUXP 5XV\DยถGD \DEDQFร
SDUDQร Q XOXVDO SDUD \HULQH LNDPH HGLOGLรทLQL GLรทHU ELU LIDGH\OH ย ONHGH
GRODUL]DV\RQ VRUXQX ROGXรทXQX J|VWHUPHNWHGLU
(รทHU PHUNH] EDQNDODUร Qร Q WHPHO KHGHIL IL\DW LVWLNUDUร QD XODรบPDN YH
Vย UGย UPHN LVH GRODUL]DV\RQXQ FLGGL ELU VRUXQ WHรบNLO HWWLรทL Doร NWร U
'RODUL]DV\RQXQ \ย NVHN ROGXรทX ย ONHOHU JHQHOOLNOH GDKD ID]OD HQIODV\RQ
ย UHWPHNWHGLUOHU oย QNย EX ย ONHOHUGH G|YL] NXUXQGDQ IL\DWODUD JHoLรบNHQOLN
Gย รบย N GRODUL]DV\RQ Gย ]H\LQH VDKLS GLรทHU ย ONHOHUH Nร \DVOD GDKD \ย NVHNWLU
'RODUL]DV\RQ VHYL\HVL \ย NVHN RODQ ย ONHOHUGHNL IL\DWODUร Q ED]ร ODUร NLUD ย FUHW
IL\DWร \ย NVHN PDO YH KL]PHWOHULQ DOร P VDWร Pร YV GRรทUXGDQ \DEDQFร SDUD
FLQVLQGHQ EHOLUOHQPHNWHGLU $\Uร FD G|YL] NXUX VHYL\HVL HNRQRPLN ELULPOHULQ ileriye dรถnรผk beklentilerini de etkilemektedir. Honohan ve Shi (2001)โ ye gรถre
G|YL] NXUXQGDQ Wย NHWLFL IL\DWODUร QD JHoLรบNHQOLN Kร ]ร LOH GRODUL]DV\RQ VHYL\HVL
DUDVร QGD SR]LWLI ELU LOLรบNL PHYFXW ROXS GRODUL]DV\RQGDNL \ย ]GH ยถOXN DUWร รบ
WDKPLQ HGLOHQ JHoLรบNHQOLรทL \ย ]GH DUWร UPDNWDGร U (QIODV\RQLVW RUWDPGD
GRODUL]DV\RQ \DEDQFร SDUD\D JHoLรบ PDOL\HWLQL D]DOWDUDN SDUD WDOHELQL GDKD
R\QDN KDOH JHWLUGLรทLQGHQ PHUNH] EDQNDVร Doร Vร QGDQ SDUD SROLWLNDVร
X\JXODPDVร QGD oHรบLWOL ]RUOXNODU \DUDWDELOPHNWHGLU %X J|Uย รบ GDKD ]L\DGH SDUD
LNDPHVL LOH LOJLOL JLEL J|Uย QVH GH D\Qร GXUXP YDUOร N GRODUL]DV\RQX LoLQ GH
JHoHUOLGLU (รทHU XOXVDO SDUD FLQVL YDUOร NODUGDQ \DEDQFร SDUD FLQVL YDUOร NODUD
JHoLรบ PDOL\HWL D] LVH EX GXUXPGD SDUD WDOHEL G|YL] NXUX GHรทLรบLPOHULQH GDKD
GX\DUOร KDOH JHOPHNWHGLU 'RODUL]DV\RQXQ YDUOร รทร GXUXPXQGD HQIODV\RQXQ
JHQLรบ SDUD WDQร PODUร QD GX\DUOร Oร รทร Qร EHOLUJLQ ELU รบHNLOGH DUWPDNWDGร U <ย NVHN YH
GHรทLรบNHQ HQIODV\RQ GRODUL]DV\RQD VHEHS RODELOHFHรทL JLEL X\JXODQDQ
JHQLรบOHWLFL SDUD SROLWLNDVร hem
yรผksek enflasyona hem de
yรผksek
dolarizasyona neden olabilir (Yeyati, 2006). Sonuรง olarak, benzer para
SROLWLNDODUร X\JXODVDODU ELOH GRODUL]DV\RQ VHYL\HVLQLQ \ย NVHN ROGXรทX ย ONHOHUGH
HQIODV\RQXQ GLรทHU ย ONHOHUGHQ GDKD \ย NVHN ROPDVร EHNOHQPHNWHGLU $\Uร FD
GRODUL]DV\RQ VHYL\HVL \ย NVHN RODQ EX ย ONHOHUGH JHQLรบ SDUD DU]ร Eย \ย PHVL kontrol edilse bile enflasyon daha yรผksek hale gelmektedir. Feige (2003)โ e
J|UH GRODUL]DV\RQ HNRQRPLN ELULPOHULQ \DEDQFร SDUD\ร XOXVDO SDUD\D LNDPH
HWPH HรทLOLPL\OH DUWWร NoD SDUD DU]ร Qร NRQWURO HWPHN GH Jย oOHรบPHNWHGLU
Dolarizasyon seviyesi yรผksek olan รผlkeler kendi kendini besleyen
NUL]OHUH YH |]HOOLNOH EDQNDFร Oร N NUL]OHULQH NDUรบร GDKD Nร Uร OJDQ KDOH JHOPHNWHGLUOHU (รทHU EDQNDODU \DEDQFร SDUD Doร N SR]LV\RQX WDรบร \RUODUVD
XOXVDO SDUDQร Q DQL GHรทHU ND\Eร EDQNDODUร Q ]DUDU HWPHVLQH QHGHQ RODFDNWร U
%DQNDODUร Q DรบPDPDODUร JHUHNHQ \DEDQFร SDUD Doร N SR]LV\RQ OLPLWOHUL PHYFXW
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JLEL E|\OH ELU GXUXP ILQDQVDO NUL]OHUL GDKD GD GHULQOHรบWLUHELOPHNWHGLU
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XOXVDO SDUDQร Q IL\DWร Qร \DQL Nร VD G|QHPOL IDL] RUDQODUร Qร NRQWURO HGHELOPHNWHGLU
$QFDN SDUD RWRULWHVLQLQ \DEDQFร SDUD ย VWย QGHNL Jย Fย VDKLS ROGXรทX
XOXVODUDUDVร UH]HUYOHUOH Vร Qร UOร Gร U 'RODUL]DV\RQXQ YDUOร รทร \OD SDUD WDOHEL GDKD
R\QDN KDOH JHOGLรทLQGHQ PHUNH] EDQNDODUร Doร Vร QGDQ SDUD WDOHELQLQ WDKPLQL
Jย oOHรบPHNWHGLU 'RPDo Ye Oskooee (2002), dolarizasyon dรผzeyindeki
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D]DOPDNWD YH SDUD WDOHELQGH GHQJHVL]OLNOHU PH\GDQD JHOPHNWHGLU %X NRรบXOODU
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YHULS RUWDN ELU SDUD SROLWLNDVร L]OHPHOHUL WDYVL\H HGLOPHNWHGLU
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VDรทOD\DELOPHNWHGLU %DWWHQ YH +DIHU %X QHGHQOH HQ D]ร QGDQ WHRULN
RODUDN G|YL] NXUXQXQ GHรทLรบPHVLQH L]LQ YHULOPHVL NDUรบร Oร รทร QGD LVWHQLOHQ SDUD
SROLWLNDVร X\JXODQDELOPHNWHGLU %|\OH ELU VLVWHPGH G|YL] NXUX KDUHNHWLQH L]LQ
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SROLWLNDVร Qร X\JXODPDNWD |]Jย U RODPDPDNWDGร U 'LรทHU ย ONHOHUGH SDUD DU]ร Qร Q
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0HUNH] EDQNDVร Qร Q G|YL] SL\DVDVร QD Pย GDKDOH HWPHGLรทL GXUXPGD XOXVDO
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Iร UVDW PDOL\HWLQL DUWร UDFDNWร U g]HWOH KHU LNL ย ONHGHNL \HUOHรบLNOHU SDUD
RWRULWHVLQLQ JHQLรบOHWLFL SDUD SROLWLNDVร QHGHQL\OH GHรทHU ND\EHGHFHรทLQL
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KHP GH \XUW Gร รบร QGDNL SDUD WDOHELQL HWNLOH\HFHNWLU (รทHU SDUD SROLWLNDVร
X\JXODPDVร Vย UHFLQGH GRODUL]DV\RQ VHYL\HVL \ย NVHN RODQ ย ONHOHUGH SDUD
WDOHEL GHรทLรบPHOHUL J|] DUGร HGLOLUVH HNRQRPLGH EHNOHQPH\HQ VRQXoODU RUWD\D
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Dolarizasyonun en รถnemli etkilerinden biri de para yaratPDQร Q NDUร
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VHYL\HVLQGHNL XOXVDO SDUD WDOHELQL D]DOWPDNWDGร U EDรบND ELU GH\LรบOH
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HNRQRPLN Eย \ย PH\H QHGHQ ROPDVร PXKWHPHOGLU $\Uร FD GRODUL]DV\RQ
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\ย ]GH GDKD D] Eย \ย Gย รทย Qย LIDGH HWPHNWHGLU 'RODUL]DV\RQXQ \ย NVHN
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EDQNDFร Oร N NUL]OHULQH GDKD ID]OD GX\DUOร ROGXNODUร QGDQ J|UHOL RODUDN GDKD ID]OD devresel dalgalanma gรถstermektedirler. Sonuรงlar, dolarizasyonun bรผyรผme
SHUIRUPDQVร Qร
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J|VWHUGLรทLQL LOHUL Vย UPHNWH X]XQ G|QHPGH LVH G|YL] NXUODUร Qร Q 6*3 GHรทHULQH
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V = ฮฒ + ฮฒ S โ S ;
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J|UHOL HQIODV\RQ RUDQODUร Qร Q ELU IRQNVL\RQX ROXS HQIODV\RQ RUDQร QGDNL
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GLNNDW HGLOPHVL JHUHNPHNWHGLU 6HUPD\H KHVDEร QGDNL YH\D UH]HUYOHUGHNL
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GHรทLรบNHQOHUGHNL GHรทLรบLPOHU YH IDUNOร Oร NODU G|YL] NXUXQX HWNLOHPHNWHGLUOHU
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S \XUW Gร รบร IL\DW VHYL\HVLQH S J|UH DUWร รบ J|VWHULUVH \HUOL PDOODU \DEDQFร
PDOODUD Nร \DVOD GDKD SDKDOร KDOH JHOHFHN UHNDEHW Jย Fย Qย Q D]DOPDVร \OD
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KDUHNHWOHULQLQ VHUEHVW ROGXรทX YDUVD\ร Pร \OD \HUOL ILQDQVDO YDUOร NODU GDKD oHNLFL
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IDUN GHQNOHPLQH VDELW GDKLO HGLOHELOPHNWHGLU %X GXUXPGD VDELW DúD÷ÕGD
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Tablo
3.2’deki
sonuçlar
Tablo
3.1’deki
sonuçlarla
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'RODUL]DV\RQ SDUD DU]Õ FDUL LúOHPOHU DoÕ÷Õ YH IDL] RUDQODUÕQGDNL DUWÕúODU G|YL]
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(÷HU UHJUHV\RQ HúE W QOHúLN LVH GH÷LúNHQOHULQ GXUD÷DQ ROPDPD
GXUXPODUÕQGDQ NXUWXOPDN LoLQ IDUN GHQNOHPOHUL\OH oDOÕúPD \HULQH
GH÷LúNHQOHULQ VHYL\H KDOOHUL\OH oDOÕúÕODELOLU 'XUD÷DQODúWÕUPD X÷UXQD \DSÕODQ fark alma yöntemi nedeniyle verilerin uzun dönem denge özellikleri bozularak
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yöntemlerle tahmin edilebilir.
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Grafik 3.2’deki sonuçlara göre dolarizasyona verilen bir standart
VDSPDOÕN úRND VLVWHPGHNL KLo ELU GH÷LúNHQLQ WHSNLVL LVWDWLVWLNL RODUDN DQODPOÕ
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Grafik 3.3’teki sonuçlara göre de döviz kuruna verilen bir standart
VDSPDOÕN úRN VRQXFXQGD HQIODV\RQXQ ULVNL UHHO NXUGDQ GDKD ID]OD DUWPDNWD
YH LOJLOL RUDQGDNL DUWÕú LNLQFL oH\UHNWH \ NVHOHUHN PDNVLPXP GH÷HULQH
XODúPDNWD DQFDN GDKD VRQUD LVWDWLVWLNL RODUDN DQODPÕQÕ \LWLUPHNWHGLU '|YL]
NXUX JHoLúNHQOLN YH EHNOHQWLOHU NDQDOÕ\OD HQIODV\RQGD DUWÕúD QHGHQ ROPDNWD
DQFDN EX HWNL DOWÕ D\ VRQUD DQODPÕQÕ \LWLUPHNWHGLU $QFDN G|YL] NXUXQD YHULOHQ
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NXOODQÕODELOPHNWHGLU $QFDN VHULOHULQ IDUN DOPD \|QWHPL\OH GXUD÷DQODúWÕUÕOPDVÕ
YH HOGH HGLOHQ IDUN GH÷LúNHQOHULQ VHYL\H GH÷LúNHQOHUOH ELUOLNWH D\QÕ PRGHOGH
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DNÕP YH VWRN GH÷LúNHQOHULQ ELUELULQH NDUÕúWÕUÕOPDVÕQD EHQ]HWPHNWH YH
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GH÷LúNHQOHULQ VHYL\H IRUPODUÕ\OD oDOÕúÕODELOPHNWHGLU \ = β + β [ + β [ − + β \ − + ε
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Bu sonucu kullanarak ilk denklem tekrar düzenlenebilir. Denklemin her
LNL WDUDIÕQGDQ \¢ £}¤ oÕNDUÕOÕU YH GHQOHPLQ VD÷ WDUDIÕQD β ¥ [ ¦ − ¥ HNOH\LS
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Kennedy (2003, s. 324)’e göre bu denklemdeki son terim hata
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GHQNOHPGHNL VRQ WHULP KÕ]OD E \ PHNWH YH NDWVD\ÕQÕQ QHJDWLI ROPDVÕ GL÷HU ELU
GH\LúOH VLVWHPLQ GXUD÷DQ ROPDVÕ QHGHQL\OH βª ∆\¢ D]DOPDNWD YH KDWD terimi düzeltilmektedir.
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Grafik 3.4’deki VEC modeli sonucu elde edilen etki tepki fonksiyonu
VRQXoODUÕQD J|UH EHNOHQGL÷L JLEL ULVN GH÷LúNHQLQH YHULOHQ ELU VWDQGDUW
VDSPDOÕN úRN VRQXFX GRODUL]DV\RQ GH÷LúNHQLQGH NDOÕFÕ ELU DUWÕú PH\GDQD
JHOPHNWHGLU 'L÷HU ELU GH\LúOH HQIODV\RQ ULVNLQLQ G|YL] NXUX ULVNLQH J|UH
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À ²I³ µ ¼ ´I» »3¶ÞÀ ²º³ ²@»3¼ ¸ ¸HµÈ»L³ ½ ¸ ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ²I»D² ¼ ¶ÈÀ ²I³ ² ² ½L¼ ½ÆÀJ»L³ ¼ µI¿IÀ ² ÁÅÀ ²º³ ² ²L¶ ¼ ¼ ½ÄÁº³ ¸LµI¿IÀ ² Á ²º³ ² ² ² Áĸº³ »3µI¿IÀ ² ¶ À ²º³ ¼ »D¸Lµ ·ßÀ ²º³ ¼@»D¼ ²HµÔÀ ´º³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² ¶ÉÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ¶ ·ßÀ ²I³ ² ²@»D· ·ÆÀJ»L³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ¶ · ¶ÖÀ ½º³ ¶ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ² Á ´ÆÀ ¼I³ ² ² ¿IÀ ² Á Í ÀJ» ³ ·L¶ ´Hµ ¼LÎ Í À ²º³ ² ¶ ² ¼Lµ Î Í » ³ ¶ Á@»D²L¼ Î Í » ³ µ · ½ ½ ½HÎ Í ÀJ»L³ ¶ »D·Lµ ²LÎ Í À ²º³ ´ Á@»D¸ ÁLÎ Í À ²º³ ´ ·Lµ µ ²LÎ Í » ³ Á ´ ²L¼ µ Î Í ²I³ ´L¶ ¼@»D¶LÎ Í ²I³ ½ Á ´Hµº·HÎ
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À ²I³ ½L¼ ¼ · ½ ·Ò²º³ ´ ¶ · ·@»3¼ß»L³ ´ · ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ² ²Hµº² ¸Ò²º³ ² ² ² ¼ ¼ ´ÆÀ ¼I³ ·@»H¿IÀ ² ¶ÓÀ ²º³ ² ² ½ ¶ ¼ ÁÆÀJ»L³ ½ ¶º¿IÀ ² ÁÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ´ ´ ÁÆÀ Áº³ Á ½ ¿IÀ ² ¶ À ²º³ ½ ½ ¸ ´ ´ßÀ ²º³ ½L¼ ·Hµ ¼ÜÀJ»L³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²I»?² ¸ À ²º³ ² ² ½@»ÕÀ ¼I³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²I»?² ´@»ÕÀ Áº³ ¶ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÌÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ·ÆÀ ½º³ »?² ¿IÀ ² Á Í À ²I³ · Á Á ¸ ´HÎ Í ¼I³ ¶Lµ ² ¸L¶ Î Í » ³ µ ¶ ´ Á ½LÎ Í ²I³ ½ ´ ² ·Lµ Î Í ²º³ ² ¸ ½ ¸ ²LÎ Í À ²º³ »3¼ ´ ·I»3Î Í À ²º³ ½ ½ Á ½ ÁLÎ Í À ²I³ ¼Lµº² ½L¼ Î Í À ²I³ · ´ ¼ ½ ·LÎ Í À ²I³ »D¸ ´ ´ ÁLÎ
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À ²I³ ¼Lµº· Á@»D·ÐÀ ²º³ ¼ ¸I» »?·HµÔÀ ·º³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² ¸Ñ²º³ ² ² ½L¼ µ µâÀ ²º³ ² ²L¼ ¶ ² ¼ÖÀ ½º³ ½LµI¿IÀ ² ÁDzº³ ² ²L¼ ¶ ´ ·ÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ²@»D´ ·Ç²º³ ² ²L¼ ²Hµº¸ÆÀJ»L³ ¸ ½ ¿IÀ ² Á À ²º³ ´ ²I»?´ ¸ßÀ ²º³ ¸ ´@»D¸ ´ÇÀ ½º³ »?² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²L¼ Á ½ßÀ ²I³ ² ² ¸ ½ ÁÆÀ Áº³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²L¼ ÁL¶ ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ²I»?½ÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ¼@»3µËÀ ¸º³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² Á Í À ²I³ ½I» » »?¸HÎ Í À ²º³ ½Lµ ¶ ´ ·HÎ Í À ²º³ ² ½I» »D½LÎ Í » ³ ¼ ´ ²L¶ ¶LÎ Í À ²º³ ½ Á ½ ¸ ÁLÎ Í À ²º³ ¶ ¼ ½Hµ ¶ Î Í ²I³ »D²Lµ ´Lµ Î Í ÀJ» ³ µ » » »D½LÎ Í ²I³ · Á ¸I»?·HÎ Í À ²I³ ¼ ½ Á ²L¼ Î
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À ½ ¸ ²@»L³ ²Lµ ½Ò½Hµ ½ Áº³ ² ¶ ¼à²º³ ² ²L¶ ·Hµº½ÂÀ ¼ ½º³ ´ ÁL¼ ¸ ·Ò¸ ·I³ ¼ ¶ ´ Á ´ÅÀ ²º³ ¼ ¼ ¼ Á ½ ·ç»DÁ ¸º³ ² ¸L¼ ¼Ú»L³ µ ² ½ ² ½ ´ÊÀJ»?´º³ ¼ » »D¶Ü²º³ »3¼ ¸ ´HµºÁ À ¸ ÁL¼ ²I³ ´ À ¸ ½ ½ ¼I³ µèÀ ²I³ ¼ ´ ¶@» »éÀ ¼ ½º³ ¸ ¶@»ÉÀ ¶ ´º³ · ¸L¶ µæÀ ²I³ Á ² ¼Lµº¸ÊÀ ¼ µ ²I³ Á ·@»ãÀJ» ³ ¼ Á ¶ ¶ ´ÊÀ ¼ ²º³ ² ¶ ¼ µ¹À ²º³ ¶ ´ ´ ¸ Í À ²I³ µ · ¼@» »RÎ Í ²º³ µ ¶ ´Lµ ´LÎ Í ²I³ ²L¼ µ ¼ ¸LÎ Í ÀJ»L³ ² ² ½ ´L¶ Î Í »L³ »Rµº·L¼@»3Î Í À ²º³ µ µ ¼ ´ ·LÎ Í ²I³ ¶ Á ¼ ´ ¶LÎ Í » ³ » »D¶Lµ ¶LÎ Í À ²I³ · ² ¸ ¸ ÁLÎ Í ²I³ »D´ ÁL¶ ½HÎ
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µº´Hµ ¼I³ ¼ ¶ ½ÐÀ Á ·Hµº·º³ »3µ ¸Ò²º³ ²Lµ Á ¶Lµ ¼êÀ ½L¼I³ ¸ Á ¸ ² ¸ßÀJ»3µ ¸º³ ¼ ´ ¸ÅÀ ²º³ µº¸ · ¼ · ÁÅÀJ»DÁ ½º³ ² ¸L¶ µÔ½º³ ¼ ² ² ¶ ¼ ´ÅÀJ»DÁI³ ¸ · ½ ´ ½ÅÀ ²º³ ½L¼ ¸ ´L¶ ¸ À ´ ²Lµ ²º³ ÁI»ÉÀ ¸ ´ ½ ·I³ ² ·ßÀ ²I³ ½ ² Á ´ ·äÀ ¼ Áº³ µº² ½ßÀ ¸ ½º³ ¸Lµ ¼ ·ÊÀ ²I³ Á ½ ¸I»?·ÊÀ ¼ Á ¸I³ ¼@»?¸ÊÀJ» ³ ½Hµº½ Á ¼ÙÀ ¼ »L³ µ µ ´ ´ÊÀ ²I³ ¸ ½ ¶ ¼ · Í ²º³ ¶ ²L¼ ¼ ½HÎ Í À ²º³ ¸ Á ´ ·I»RÎ Í ²I³ »Rµº·L¼@»3Î Í ÀJ»L³ ¼ ´ · Á ²LÎ Í ÀJ»L³ · · ¸ ½ ²LÎ Í À ²º³ ´ · ¼ ¼ ½LÎ Í À ²º³ Á · ÁI»D½LÎ Í ¼@³ ½ ´ ¼ ¼ ¸HÎ Í À ²I³ ¸ ½ ¶ ½ ÁLÎ Í À ²I³ µ µºÁ ½ ²LÎ
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À Á · ½ ¸º³ ¼ ¶@»ÉÀ ¸ ² ´L¶@³ · ´Ò²º³ Á ¶ ´ ½L¼ ´ë¼I³ ²Lµ ´ ´ ´ ·ÐÀ ·º³ ´ ¸ Á ¶LµºÁÅÀ ²º³ µº½ ½@»D½ ½ÅÀ Á ÁI³ ¶ ¼ · · ¶Ü½º³ ¶ ¸L¶ ¼ ¼ ¶Ç¼ ½I³ ¸ Á@»D· ¼Ü²º³ Á ½L¶ · ½ ´ À ·I»?· ¸º³ Á ·ßÀ ´ · ¶ ¸I³ »D´ À ²º³ ½Lµ · ·¾À ¼ ·I³ ² Á ´L¶ÈÀ ´Lµ@³ ½ ÁHµº·ÊÀ ²I³ ¶@»3µ µº·ÊÀ ¼ ·Hµ ³ ¼ ½ ¼ÙÀJ» ³ Á ½ ¶ ´ ¶ÙÀ ¼ µ@³ Á ½ ÁLµæÀ ²I³ ´Hµ ¼ ¼ µ Í À ²I³ ¶LµºÁ Á ¼LÎ Í À ²º³ ¸ · ² ½L¼LÎ Í » ³ ¶ ¼ µ ¼Lµ Î Í ²I³ ² ¸ ² Á@»RÎ Í À ²º³ » »D¸ ² ¸LÎ Í À ²º³ ¸ ²Lµ ´L¶ Î Í À ²º³ »D´ · ² ¸LÎ Í ¼@³ ½ · ¼ ² ½HÎ Í ²I³ ·L¶ ´ ² ¸HÎ Í ²I³ ¶ ½ ¸ Á@»RÎ
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C D?EGF F!H I [!K
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C D?EGF F!H I ^!K
P O V N Q S T W Q L S Q N V U O V-P S N S S L Q U O P S N L U Q M V L&M N U R!O V R!U_S N S S T U O T\T N U V U U M!U#P S N S L W W Q R6P S N L T!M L T W\S N S S M W V O P L L T N T O V P L L L N O V M%P S N S S T U O P S N U R L R M%P L N S T!V W O P S N S S W R O P U N R R L O R P S N S L V L U P S N U S O U U P S N S L S T!Q Y P S N O M M O S Z Y S N V W R M S Z Y P S N T!M L O S Z Y P S N U Q M T!M Z Y M N M O U Q U Z Y S N O R!V T!M Z Y L N L V V Q O Z Y P S N V M!V V R Z Y P S N T!R O O O Z Y S N M R R R T Z
C D?EGF F!H I ` K
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C b c?H I J K
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C b c?H I [!K
M L M T N V L W T!V R O N T U R"P S N S T W M!U Q L U N Q V R T!R8V W N T V L W T]S N M!U M R T!Q_M S T N U O W V_S N S R!O S T!W_M!S N L Q R R R]S N T T T!S T M P R!S S T N O P O Q O T N S Q P S N M M Q T!U P L Q N V W S T P O O N S R!V Q P S N T!S L L R P L V M N S Q T P L N S S U U M P L R N S L W R P S N O T!V Q O Y S N U O U Q V Z Y S N Q T Q M S Z Y P S N M!S R Q S Z Y S N W U M O U Z Y L N W W S U U Z Y S N O W V V U Z Y L N S R U V S Z Y S N S R T Q U Z Y L N M R!S M!Q Z Y S N Q S W O Q Z
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