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GD EHNOHQGL÷L JLEL G|YL] NXUXQX DUWÕUDQ GL÷HU XQVXUODU RODUDN J|]H oDUSDUNHQ

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Tablo

3.2’deki

sonuçlar

Tablo

3.1’deki

sonuçlarla

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'RODUL]DV\RQ SDUD DU]Õ FDUL LúOHPOHU DoÕ÷Õ YH IDL] RUDQODUÕQGDNL DUWÕúODU G|YL]

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(÷HU UHJUHV\RQ HúE W QOHúLN LVH GH÷LúNHQOHULQ GXUD÷DQ ROPDPD

GXUXPODUÕQGDQ NXUWXOPDN LoLQ IDUN GHQNOHPOHUL\OH oDOÕúPD \HULQH

GH÷LúNHQOHULQ VHYL\H KDOOHUL\OH oDOÕúÕODELOLU 'XUD÷DQODúWÕUPD X÷UXQD \DSÕODQ fark alma yöntemi nedeniyle verilerin uzun dönem denge özellikleri bozularak

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KLoELU GH÷LúNHQ GXUD÷DQ ROPDGÕ÷ÕQGDQ DúD÷ÕGDNL GHQNOHP HúE W QOHúLN

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yöntemlerle tahmin edilebilir.

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Grafik 3.2’deki sonuçlara göre dolarizasyona verilen bir standart

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Grafik 3.3’teki sonuçlara göre de döviz kuruna verilen bir standart

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Bu sonucu kullanarak ilk denklem tekrar düzenlenebilir. Denklemin her

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I Q ­ ¨® ¯ Ï ±

À ²I³ ¼Lµ ¼ ¶ ¶ ·ÐÀ ²º³ µº½ ½ ² ¸ ¸ÇÀJ»L³ ½ · ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ²I»D· Á ·Ò²º³ ² ² ² ¸ Á ´ÆÀ µ@³ »?Á ¿IÀ ² ¶ÓÀ ²º³ ² ² Á ¼ ½ ½ÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ²@»3¼ ·ÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ·L¶ µËÀ ¼I³ ¼ ² ¿IÀ ² Á À ²º³ ½ ´L¼ µ ¼ÈÀ ²º³ ½ ¸ ¼ ´HµÔÀJ»L³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²I»D¼@»ÉÀ ²I³ ² ² ½ Á@»ÕÀ ¼I³ ¶ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²I»D¼ ¼ ½ÆÀ ¶I³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ²@»D² ¼ÖÀ ½º³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² Á Í À ²I³ ¶ ½Lµ Á ¶LÎ Í ÀJ»L³ »D¶@»?ÁL¶LÎ Í À ²º³ · ÁL¶ ÁL¼ Î Í » ³ ¶ ¼ »Rµº·HÎ Í ²º³ ¼@»D¶ ¼ ¼ Î Í À ²º³ »3¶ ¼ ÁHµ Î Í À ²º³ µ ¼ ¸ ¸I»3Î Í À ¼@³ ²I»?¸L¶ ÁLÎ Í À ²I³ ·Hµ µ · ²LÎ Í À ²I³ ¶ ¼ · ½I»3Î

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I Q ­ ¨® ¯ ݺ±

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²I³ ¼ ¸ Á ²@»3¼à²º³ ¼ Á ·I»D¼@»áÀJ»L³ ¼ · ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ² ²I»?²HµâÀ ²º³ ² ² ²Lµ ¶ ¶ã´º³ ¶ ´ ¿IÀ ² ¶Ü²º³ ² ²HµºÁ ´LµÙ»L³ µz»H¿IÀ ² ÁDzº³ ² ² ²Lµ ² ¸ÆÀ ¼I³ ½ ½ ¿IÀ ² Á À ²º³ ½ ¸ ·Lµ ÁßÀ ²º³ ½L¶ · ·HµÔÀJ»L³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁäÀ ²I³ ² ²@»3¼ÈÀ ²I³ ² ² ½Hµº´ÆÀ ¼I³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²I»D¼@»3µËÀ ¶I³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ²@»D²@»ÕÀ ½º³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² Á Í ²º³ ¸ ¼Lµº¸ ¸HÎ Í ²º³ ¸ ² ²Lµ µ Î Í À ²º³ ´ · ² ´ ÁLÎ Í ²I³ ² ´ ¶ ¸Lµ Î Í À ²º³ »?½ ½ · ÁLÎ Í ²I³ ½Hµ ¼ ¼ ²HÎ Í ²I³ ½ ¸ ¸L¶ µ Î Í ²I³ ¼ ¼ ¼ ¸ ÁHÎ Í ²I³ µ ² ¼ Á ´HÎ Í À ²I³ ¶ ¸ ² ¸ ÁLÎ

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À ²I³ ½L¼ ¼ · ½ ·Ò²º³ ´ ¶ · ·@»3¼ß»L³ ´ · ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ² ²Hµº² ¸Ò²º³ ² ² ² ¼ ¼ ´ÆÀ ¼I³ ·@»H¿IÀ ² ¶ÓÀ ²º³ ² ² ½ ¶ ¼ ÁÆÀJ»L³ ½ ¶º¿IÀ ² ÁÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ´ ´ ÁÆÀ Áº³ Á ½ ¿IÀ ² ¶ À ²º³ ½ ½ ¸ ´ ´ßÀ ²º³ ½L¼ ·Hµ ¼ÜÀJ»L³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²I»?² ¸ À ²º³ ² ² ½@»ÕÀ ¼I³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²I»?² ´@»ÕÀ Áº³ ¶ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÌÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ·ÆÀ ½º³ »?² ¿IÀ ² Á Í À ²I³ · Á Á ¸ ´HÎ Í ¼I³ ¶Lµ ² ¸L¶ Î Í » ³ µ ¶ ´ Á ½LÎ Í ²I³ ½ ´ ² ·Lµ Î Í ²º³ ² ¸ ½ ¸ ²LÎ Í À ²º³ »3¼ ´ ·I»3Î Í À ²º³ ½ ½ Á ½ ÁLÎ Í À ²I³ ¼Lµº² ½L¼ Î Í À ²I³ · ´ ¼ ½ ·LÎ Í À ²I³ »D¸ ´ ´ ÁLÎ

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²I³ »RµºÁHµº½ ´¹²º³ ¶ Á@»Rµ ¸¾Áº³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ²I»D² ¸ ½Ò²º³ ² ² ² ´L¼ »ÕÀ ¼I³ ¶ Á ¿IÀ ² ¶Ü²º³ ² ² ½Lµ ·LµÔ²º³ ² ² ²@»D½ ¼å²I³ ² ² ½ ´ ·ÄÁº³ µ ¼º¿IÀ ² Á À ²º³ ´@»D² ¶ ¶ÈÀ ²º³ ¸ · ² ½ ÁÇÀ ½º³ »?² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²L¼ ÁL¶ÈÀ ²I³ ² ² ¸Hµº½ÆÀ Áº³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²L¼ Á · ½ÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ²I»3µæÀ ²I³ ² ² ¼@»D¶ÖÀ ¸º³ µº² ¿IÀ ² Á Í ²º³ »?¸ ·Lµ »RÎ Í ²º³ ´L¼Lµ ¼ ´LÎ Í » ³ ¸ Á@»DÁ ¸LÎ Í ²I³ µ »?´ · ½HÎ Í ²º³ » »?² ½ ´LÎ Í À ²º³ ²Hµº´ ´L¶ Î Í ²I³ »D½Lµ ¸ ¼LÎ Í ²I³ · ¸ ½ ½Lµ Î Í » ³ ¸ · ´ ´ ¸HÎ Í ²I³ ¸L¼ · ÁLµ Î

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À ²I³ ¼Lµº· Á@»D·ÐÀ ²º³ ¼ ¸I» »?·HµÔÀ ·º³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² ¸Ñ²º³ ² ² ½L¼ µ µâÀ ²º³ ² ²L¼ ¶ ² ¼ÖÀ ½º³ ½LµI¿IÀ ² ÁDzº³ ² ²L¼ ¶ ´ ·ÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ²@»D´ ·Ç²º³ ² ²L¼ ²Hµº¸ÆÀJ»L³ ¸ ½ ¿IÀ ² Á À ²º³ ´ ²I»?´ ¸ßÀ ²º³ ¸ ´@»D¸ ´ÇÀ ½º³ »?² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²L¼ Á ½ßÀ ²I³ ² ² ¸ ½ ÁÆÀ Áº³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²L¼ ÁL¶ ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ²I»?½ÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ¼@»3µËÀ ¸º³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² Á Í À ²I³ ½I» » »?¸HÎ Í À ²º³ ½Lµ ¶ ´ ·HÎ Í À ²º³ ² ½I» »D½LÎ Í » ³ ¼ ´ ²L¶ ¶LÎ Í À ²º³ ½ Á ½ ¸ ÁLÎ Í À ²º³ ¶ ¼ ½Hµ ¶ Î Í ²I³ »D²Lµ ´Lµ Î Í ÀJ» ³ µ » » »D½LÎ Í ²I³ · Á ¸I»?·HÎ Í À ²I³ ¼ ½ Á ²L¼ Î

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À ½ ¸ ²@»L³ ²Lµ ½Ò½Hµ ½ Áº³ ² ¶ ¼à²º³ ² ²L¶ ·Hµº½ÂÀ ¼ ½º³ ´ ÁL¼ ¸ ·Ò¸ ·I³ ¼ ¶ ´ Á ´ÅÀ ²º³ ¼ ¼ ¼ Á ½ ·ç»DÁ ¸º³ ² ¸L¼ ¼Ú»L³ µ ² ½ ² ½ ´ÊÀJ»?´º³ ¼ » »D¶Ü²º³ »3¼ ¸ ´HµºÁ À ¸ ÁL¼ ²I³ ´ À ¸ ½ ½ ¼I³ µèÀ ²I³ ¼ ´ ¶@» »éÀ ¼ ½º³ ¸ ¶@»ÉÀ ¶ ´º³ · ¸L¶ µæÀ ²I³ Á ² ¼Lµº¸ÊÀ ¼ µ ²I³ Á ·@»ãÀJ» ³ ¼ Á ¶ ¶ ´ÊÀ ¼ ²º³ ² ¶ ¼ µ¹À ²º³ ¶ ´ ´ ¸ Í À ²I³ µ · ¼@» »RÎ Í ²º³ µ ¶ ´Lµ ´LÎ Í ²I³ ²L¼ µ ¼ ¸LÎ Í ÀJ»L³ ² ² ½ ´L¶ Î Í »L³ »Rµº·L¼@»3Î Í À ²º³ µ µ ¼ ´ ·LÎ Í ²I³ ¶ Á ¼ ´ ¶LÎ Í » ³ » »D¶Lµ ¶LÎ Í À ²I³ · ² ¸ ¸ ÁLÎ Í ²I³ »D´ ÁL¶ ½HÎ

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µº´Hµ ¼I³ ¼ ¶ ½ÐÀ Á ·Hµº·º³ »3µ ¸Ò²º³ ²Lµ Á ¶Lµ ¼êÀ ½L¼I³ ¸ Á ¸ ² ¸ßÀJ»3µ ¸º³ ¼ ´ ¸ÅÀ ²º³ µº¸ · ¼ · ÁÅÀJ»DÁ ½º³ ² ¸L¶ µÔ½º³ ¼ ² ² ¶ ¼ ´ÅÀJ»DÁI³ ¸ · ½ ´ ½ÅÀ ²º³ ½L¼ ¸ ´L¶ ¸ À ´ ²Lµ ²º³ ÁI»ÉÀ ¸ ´ ½ ·I³ ² ·ßÀ ²I³ ½ ² Á ´ ·äÀ ¼ Áº³ µº² ½ßÀ ¸ ½º³ ¸Lµ ¼ ·ÊÀ ²I³ Á ½ ¸I»?·ÊÀ ¼ Á ¸I³ ¼@»?¸ÊÀJ» ³ ½Hµº½ Á ¼ÙÀ ¼ »L³ µ µ ´ ´ÊÀ ²I³ ¸ ½ ¶ ¼ · Í ²º³ ¶ ²L¼ ¼ ½HÎ Í À ²º³ ¸ Á ´ ·I»RÎ Í ²I³ »Rµº·L¼@»3Î Í ÀJ»L³ ¼ ´ · Á ²LÎ Í ÀJ»L³ · · ¸ ½ ²LÎ Í À ²º³ ´ · ¼ ¼ ½LÎ Í À ²º³ Á · ÁI»D½LÎ Í ¼@³ ½ ´ ¼ ¼ ¸HÎ Í À ²I³ ¸ ½ ¶ ½ ÁLÎ Í À ²I³ µ µºÁ ½ ²LÎ

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À Á · ½ ¸º³ ¼ ¶@»ÉÀ ¸ ² ´L¶@³ · ´Ò²º³ Á ¶ ´ ½L¼ ´ë¼I³ ²Lµ ´ ´ ´ ·ÐÀ ·º³ ´ ¸ Á ¶LµºÁÅÀ ²º³ µº½ ½@»D½ ½ÅÀ Á ÁI³ ¶ ¼ · · ¶Ü½º³ ¶ ¸L¶ ¼ ¼ ¶Ç¼ ½I³ ¸ Á@»D· ¼Ü²º³ Á ½L¶ · ½ ´ À ·I»?· ¸º³ Á ·ßÀ ´ · ¶ ¸I³ »D´ À ²º³ ½Lµ · ·¾À ¼ ·I³ ² Á ´L¶ÈÀ ´Lµ@³ ½ ÁHµº·ÊÀ ²I³ ¶@»3µ µº·ÊÀ ¼ ·Hµ ³ ¼ ½ ¼ÙÀJ» ³ Á ½ ¶ ´ ¶ÙÀ ¼ µ@³ Á ½ ÁLµæÀ ²I³ ´Hµ ¼ ¼ µ Í À ²I³ ¶LµºÁ Á ¼LÎ Í À ²º³ ¸ · ² ½L¼LÎ Í » ³ ¶ ¼ µ ¼Lµ Î Í ²I³ ² ¸ ² Á@»RÎ Í À ²º³ » »D¸ ² ¸LÎ Í À ²º³ ¸ ²Lµ ´L¶ Î Í À ²º³ »D´ · ² ¸LÎ Í ¼@³ ½ · ¼ ² ½HÎ Í ²I³ ·L¶ ´ ² ¸HÎ Í ²I³ ¶ ½ ¸ Á@»RÎ

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ñ = ò +?>¨ó ô (ºö

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C D?EGF F!H I J K

L M M N O O M M)P Q Q N R!O S T Q S N S S O L L L<P S N U T V S Q Q S N W T!R R T!R P S N S S W V L U P S N W O V S V#P S N S S Q Q T L0P S N T!S V U L T P S N S S S L R P L M!V N O Q M%P L M R N U U R%P S N S S T V UXP S N T S V T P L N L Q Q T O P S N S S Q R R P T N L T O U U P S N S M L R O P S N U T O R!W P S N S L L Q W Y S N V T!O W O Z Y P S N W S L W L Z Y L N S U R Q S Z Y P S N Q O M R!V Z Y S N R M!Q M O Z Y P S N V L U V R Z Y P S N L Q U L M Z Y P S N T!S Q U L Z Y P L N L Q T L L Z Y P S N S L U T V Z

C D?EGF F!H I [!K

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

C D?EGF F!H I ^!K

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

C D?EGF F!H I ` K

O O N V S L M TaQ U N M R T S V S N S S S W T T S N L V Q W Q T.P S N U L U V T V_S N S S U R!Q Q P L N O L M!Q R!V#P S N S M L V U R6P S N U T S T L L0P S N S S O O M M P L L V N O L P L L R N O L R%P S N S S T O O P S N U W W O Q P L N S V R!S W P S N S S W V Q P U N Q M!U L M P S N S L V V W P S N U L Q Q P S N S L S V T Y S N T!R W W R Z Y S N W L T!R M Z Y S N L R!U W M Z Y S N O M R T W Z Y P S N M Q R T U Z Y S N T R L Q T Z Y P S N U V O W M Z Y P L N S V Q O S Z Y P L N S R W W Q Z Y P S N O S T!O W Z

C b c?H I J K

P M U R!S N W U O"P W V V N O Q Q T)P S N L T L V T!O L N V O S W U U"P M W N R!S W M T]S N T L M M T!QdT M N O O O M!V1L N V W U T V Q_M L N M W T T L0P S N S L O R M L P T Q M Q N Q M%P T W S W N Q R P S N L Q U W P L O N M!O R L P T T N M Q W M P S N U M M R M P L O T N T!W O P S N Q S R!Q W P L M N Q Q L U P S N T T M L V Y P S N T!Q Q Q Q Z Y P S N L R!V Q T Z Y P S N W W M R!Q Z Y S N L M!W Q W Z Y P S N R M!U U W Z Y L N M W W Q U Z Y S N M!W O T Q Z Y M N T T O Q W Z Y L N R!O L O W Z Y P S N S U O U U Z

C b c?H I [!K

M L M T N V L W T!V R O N T U R"P S N S T W M!U Q L U N Q V R T!R8V W N T V L W T]S N M!U M R T!Q_M S T N U O W V_S N S R!O S T!W_M!S N L Q R R R]S N T T T!S T M P R!S S T N O P O Q O T N S Q P S N M M Q T!U P L Q N V W S T P O O N S R!V Q P S N T!S L L R P L V M N S Q T P L N S S U U M P L R N S L W R P S N O T!V Q O Y S N U O U Q V Z Y S N Q T Q M S Z Y P S N M!S R Q S Z Y S N W U M O U Z Y L N W W S U U Z Y S N O W V V U Z Y L N S R U V S Z Y S N S R T Q U Z Y L N M R!S M!Q Z Y S N Q S W O Q Z

C b c?H I ^!K

T!V T Q N S S Q Q Q U N U R M M"P S N U S O M!W O&M N M Q O S T!R)P V R N R!O V O LeS N S O T T!M M6P L L T N U S O O P L N U T!M!S V P L O N S Q Q O O P S N O M!Q W S W P R!Q Q O N S Q P R W L M N R%P S N M R L V U P M L N W O M!O P R U N L T!R P S N T R P M M!S N M O T P L N L O S T R P L Q N U R R R P S N R!U S T!Q Y S N W L Q R R Z Y S N L U L R S Z Y PAL N L R!O T Q Z Y S N L S O S O Z Y P L N O U S W U Z Y S N L L Q U L Z Y P S N O L Q V W Z Y P L N L R R O W Z Y P S N Q M L O M Z Y P S N Q U Q O W Z

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