İlker Sarı - Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Dolarizasyon Sürecine Etkisi;Ampirik Bir Yaklaşım .pdf

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yรผksek enflasyona hem de

yรผksek

dolarizasyona neden olabilir (Yeyati, 2006). Sonuรง olarak, benzer para


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Dolarizasyon seviyesi yรผksek olan รผlkeler kendi kendini besleyen

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Tablo

3.2’deki

sonuçlar

Tablo

3.1’deki

sonuçlarla

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'RODUL]DV\RQ SDUD DU]Õ FDUL LúOHPOHU DoÕ÷Õ YH IDL] RUDQODUÕQGDNL DUWÕúODU G|YL]

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GH÷LúLPOHULQL DoÕNODPDNWD LVWDWLVWLNVHO RODUDN DQODPOÕ GH÷LOGLU

(÷HU UHJUHV\RQ HúE W QOHúLN LVH GH÷LúNHQOHULQ GXUD÷DQ ROPDPD

GXUXPODUÕQGDQ NXUWXOPDN LoLQ IDUN GHQNOHPOHUL\OH oDOÕúPD \HULQH

GH÷LúNHQOHULQ VHYL\H KDOOHUL\OH oDOÕúÕODELOLU 'XUD÷DQODúWÕUPD X÷UXQD \DSÕODQ fark alma yöntemi nedeniyle verilerin uzun dönem denge özellikleri bozularak

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KLoELU GH÷LúNHQ GXUD÷DQ ROPDGÕ÷ÕQGDQ DúD÷ÕGDNL GHQNOHP HúE W QOHúLN

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Tablo 3.3’teki sonuçlara göre dolari]DV\RQ SDUD DU]Õ IDL] RUDQÕ YH FDUL

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yöntemlerle tahmin edilebilir.

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Grafik 3.2’deki sonuçlara göre dolarizasyona verilen bir standart

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Grafik 3.3’teki sonuçlara göre de döviz kuruna verilen bir standart

VDSPDOÕN úRN VRQXFXQGD HQIODV\RQXQ ULVNL UHHO NXUGDQ GDKD ID]OD DUWPDNWD

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Bu sonucu kullanarak ilk denklem tekrar düzenlenebilir. Denklemin her

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Grafik 3.4’deki VEC modeli sonucu elde edilen etki tepki fonksiyonu

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²I³ ´Hµ ¶ · ´ ¸¹²º³ ²I»D¼ ½L¶¾¼I³ ¶ µI¿IÀ ² ÁÂÀ ²º³ ² ² ²I»?·HµÃ²º³ ² ²I»?´ ¸ ÁÄ´º³ ¼ ´ ¿IÀ ² ´ÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ½ ÁL¼ ´ÆÀ ¶I³ ´ ¸ ¿IÀ ² ÁDzº³ ² ² ² ½ ¸@»Ä»L³ ² ² ¿IÀ ² Á À ²º³ ¼ ¶ ² ¸L¶ÈÀ ²º³ ¼ ÁLµ ¼ ½ÇÀ ·º³ · ² ¿IÀ ² ¶ÉÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ´L¼ÈÀ ²I³ ² ² ¼ ½ ·ÆÀJ»L³ ¸ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ´ ½LµËÀ µ@³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁÌÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ¸ÆÀ ¼I³ µº² ¿IÀ ² Á Í ½º³ ¼ µ ´ ² ·HÎ Í ²º³ ²Hµ ´ ¶ ¼ Î Í ¼@³ ¶ Á ´Hµ »3Î Í À ²º³ ¼ ½ Á ¸Hµ Î Í ²º³ ¸ ´ ½ ´L¼ Î Í ²I³ ² ²Lµ ¸ ÁHÎ Í À ²º³ µ ¼ ¼ · ÁLÎ Í ÀJ» ³ Á ¸ ¸ ² ÁLÎ Í ²I³ Á ½Lµ ² ²HÎ Í ²I³ µ »?·L¼ ·HÎ

I Q ­ ¨® ¯ Ï ±

À ²I³ ¼Lµ ¼ ¶ ¶ ·ÐÀ ²º³ µº½ ½ ² ¸ ¸ÇÀJ»L³ ½ · ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ²I»D· Á ·Ò²º³ ² ² ² ¸ Á ´ÆÀ µ@³ »?Á ¿IÀ ² ¶ÓÀ ²º³ ² ² Á ¼ ½ ½ÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ²@»3¼ ·ÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ·L¶ µËÀ ¼I³ ¼ ² ¿IÀ ² Á À ²º³ ½ ´L¼ µ ¼ÈÀ ²º³ ½ ¸ ¼ ´HµÔÀJ»L³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²I»D¼@»ÉÀ ²I³ ² ² ½ Á@»ÕÀ ¼I³ ¶ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²I»D¼ ¼ ½ÆÀ ¶I³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ²@»D² ¼ÖÀ ½º³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² Á Í À ²I³ ¶ ½Lµ Á ¶LÎ Í ÀJ»L³ »D¶@»?ÁL¶LÎ Í À ²º³ · ÁL¶ ÁL¼ Î Í » ³ ¶ ¼ »Rµº·HÎ Í ²º³ ¼@»D¶ ¼ ¼ Î Í À ²º³ »3¶ ¼ ÁHµ Î Í À ²º³ µ ¼ ¸ ¸I»3Î Í À ¼@³ ²I»?¸L¶ ÁLÎ Í À ²I³ ·Hµ µ · ²LÎ Í À ²I³ ¶ ¼ · ½I»3Î

I Q ­ ¨® ¯ × ±

²I³ ½I»?² ¸ ¼@»Ø²º³ µº² Á ½ ÁHµÔÀJ»L³ ½@»H¿IÀ ² ÁÂÀ ²º³ ² ²I»D¸ ¼ ÁÒ²º³ ² ²I»?¸ ¸LµÙ»L³ ¶ ½ ¿IÀ ² ÁDzº³ ²@»D² ²I»?·Úµ@³ · ¶º¿IÀ ² ÁÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ²@» »?´Û¼I³ ½ ¼º¿IÀ ² ¶ À ²º³ ½ ¼ ½ ÁL¶ÈÀ ²º³ ½I»?ÁHµ ¶ÜÀJ»L³ ¼ ² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²I»?²L¼ÈÀ ²I³ ² ² ¼ · ¸ÆÀ ¼I³ ¼ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²I»?² ½ ÁÆÀ Áº³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ² ´ ¶ÖÀ ½º³ ² ² ¿IÀ ² Á Í ²º³ · ¶ ² ½I»RÎ Í »L³ ¼ ´Hµº· ´LÎ Í ÀJ»L³ ²L¶@»?½I»3Î Í ÀJ»L³ ¶ ´ ¸ Á ´LÎ Í ²º³ Á · ¸L¶ ´LÎ Í ²I³ ¸ Á ½Hµº½HÎ Í ²I³ ·L¶ ¸ · ¼LÎ Í ²I³ ·I»?¸ Á ½HÎ Í À ²I³ »D½ ¸ ²L¶ Î Í ²I³ ² ¸ ´L¼ ¶LÎ

I Q ­ ¨® ¯ ݺ±

À ²I³ µ ¼ ´I» »3¶ÞÀ ²º³ ²@»3¼ ¸ ¸HµÈ»L³ ½ ¸ ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ²I»D² ¼ ¶ÈÀ ²I³ ² ² ½L¼ ½ÆÀJ»L³ ¼ µI¿IÀ ² ÁÅÀ ²º³ ² ²L¶ ¼ ¼ ½ÄÁº³ ¸LµI¿IÀ ² Á ²º³ ² ² ² Áĸº³ »3µI¿IÀ ² ¶ À ²º³ ¼ »D¸Lµ ·ßÀ ²º³ ¼@»D¼ ²HµÔÀ ´º³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² ¶ÉÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ¶ ·ßÀ ²I³ ² ²@»D· ·ÆÀJ»L³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ¶ · ¶ÖÀ ½º³ ¶ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ² Á ´ÆÀ ¼I³ ² ² ¿IÀ ² Á Í ÀJ» ³ ·L¶ ´Hµ ¼LÎ Í À ²º³ ² ¶ ² ¼Lµ Î Í » ³ ¶ Á@»D²L¼ Î Í » ³ µ · ½ ½ ½HÎ Í ÀJ»L³ ¶ »D·Lµ ²LÎ Í À ²º³ ´ Á@»D¸ ÁLÎ Í À ²º³ ´ ·Lµ µ ²LÎ Í » ³ Á ´ ²L¼ µ Î Í ²I³ ´L¶ ¼@»D¶LÎ Í ²I³ ½ Á ´Hµº·HÎ

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²I³ ¼ ¸ Á ²@»3¼à²º³ ¼ Á ·I»D¼@»áÀJ»L³ ¼ · ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ² ²I»?²HµâÀ ²º³ ² ² ²Lµ ¶ ¶ã´º³ ¶ ´ ¿IÀ ² ¶Ü²º³ ² ²HµºÁ ´LµÙ»L³ µz»H¿IÀ ² ÁDzº³ ² ² ²Lµ ² ¸ÆÀ ¼I³ ½ ½ ¿IÀ ² Á À ²º³ ½ ¸ ·Lµ ÁßÀ ²º³ ½L¶ · ·HµÔÀJ»L³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁäÀ ²I³ ² ²@»3¼ÈÀ ²I³ ² ² ½Hµº´ÆÀ ¼I³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²I»D¼@»3µËÀ ¶I³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ²@»D²@»ÕÀ ½º³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² Á Í ²º³ ¸ ¼Lµº¸ ¸HÎ Í ²º³ ¸ ² ²Lµ µ Î Í À ²º³ ´ · ² ´ ÁLÎ Í ²I³ ² ´ ¶ ¸Lµ Î Í À ²º³ »?½ ½ · ÁLÎ Í ²I³ ½Hµ ¼ ¼ ²HÎ Í ²I³ ½ ¸ ¸L¶ µ Î Í ²I³ ¼ ¼ ¼ ¸ ÁHÎ Í ²I³ µ ² ¼ Á ´HÎ Í À ²I³ ¶ ¸ ² ¸ ÁLÎ

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À ²I³ ½L¼ ¼ · ½ ·Ò²º³ ´ ¶ · ·@»3¼ß»L³ ´ · ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ² ²Hµº² ¸Ò²º³ ² ² ² ¼ ¼ ´ÆÀ ¼I³ ·@»H¿IÀ ² ¶ÓÀ ²º³ ² ² ½ ¶ ¼ ÁÆÀJ»L³ ½ ¶º¿IÀ ² ÁÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ´ ´ ÁÆÀ Áº³ Á ½ ¿IÀ ² ¶ À ²º³ ½ ½ ¸ ´ ´ßÀ ²º³ ½L¼ ·Hµ ¼ÜÀJ»L³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²I»?² ¸ À ²º³ ² ² ½@»ÕÀ ¼I³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²I»?² ´@»ÕÀ Áº³ ¶ ² ¿IÀ ² ÁÌÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ·ÆÀ ½º³ »?² ¿IÀ ² Á Í À ²I³ · Á Á ¸ ´HÎ Í ¼I³ ¶Lµ ² ¸L¶ Î Í » ³ µ ¶ ´ Á ½LÎ Í ²I³ ½ ´ ² ·Lµ Î Í ²º³ ² ¸ ½ ¸ ²LÎ Í À ²º³ »3¼ ´ ·I»3Î Í À ²º³ ½ ½ Á ½ ÁLÎ Í À ²I³ ¼Lµº² ½L¼ Î Í À ²I³ · ´ ¼ ½ ·LÎ Í À ²I³ »D¸ ´ ´ ÁLÎ

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²I³ »RµºÁHµº½ ´¹²º³ ¶ Á@»Rµ ¸¾Áº³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁѲº³ ² ²I»D² ¸ ½Ò²º³ ² ² ² ´L¼ »ÕÀ ¼I³ ¶ Á ¿IÀ ² ¶Ü²º³ ² ² ½Lµ ·LµÔ²º³ ² ² ²@»D½ ¼å²I³ ² ² ½ ´ ·ÄÁº³ µ ¼º¿IÀ ² Á À ²º³ ´@»D² ¶ ¶ÈÀ ²º³ ¸ · ² ½ ÁÇÀ ½º³ »?² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²L¼ ÁL¶ÈÀ ²I³ ² ² ¸Hµº½ÆÀ Áº³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²L¼ Á · ½ÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ²I»3µæÀ ²I³ ² ² ¼@»D¶ÖÀ ¸º³ µº² ¿IÀ ² Á Í ²º³ »?¸ ·Lµ »RÎ Í ²º³ ´L¼Lµ ¼ ´LÎ Í » ³ ¸ Á@»DÁ ¸LÎ Í ²I³ µ »?´ · ½HÎ Í ²º³ » »?² ½ ´LÎ Í À ²º³ ²Hµº´ ´L¶ Î Í ²I³ »D½Lµ ¸ ¼LÎ Í ²I³ · ¸ ½ ½Lµ Î Í » ³ ¸ · ´ ´ ¸HÎ Í ²I³ ¸L¼ · ÁLµ Î

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À ²I³ ¼Lµº· Á@»D·ÐÀ ²º³ ¼ ¸I» »?·HµÔÀ ·º³ Á ² ¿IÀ ² ¸Ñ²º³ ² ² ½L¼ µ µâÀ ²º³ ² ²L¼ ¶ ² ¼ÖÀ ½º³ ½LµI¿IÀ ² ÁDzº³ ² ²L¼ ¶ ´ ·ÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ²@»D´ ·Ç²º³ ² ²L¼ ²Hµº¸ÆÀJ»L³ ¸ ½ ¿IÀ ² Á À ²º³ ´ ²I»?´ ¸ßÀ ²º³ ¸ ´@»D¸ ´ÇÀ ½º³ »?² ¿IÀ ² Á¾À ²º³ ² ²L¼ Á ½ßÀ ²I³ ² ² ¸ ½ ÁÆÀ Áº³ µº² ¿IÀ ² ÁÊÀ ²I³ ²L¼ ÁL¶ ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ²I»?½ÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ¼@»3µËÀ ¸º³ ½ ² ¿IÀ ² Á Í À ²I³ ½I» » »?¸HÎ Í À ²º³ ½Lµ ¶ ´ ·HÎ Í À ²º³ ² ½I» »D½LÎ Í » ³ ¼ ´ ²L¶ ¶LÎ Í À ²º³ ½ Á ½ ¸ ÁLÎ Í À ²º³ ¶ ¼ ½Hµ ¶ Î Í ²I³ »D²Lµ ´Lµ Î Í ÀJ» ³ µ » » »D½LÎ Í ²I³ · Á ¸I»?·HÎ Í À ²I³ ¼ ½ Á ²L¼ Î

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À ½ ¸ ²@»L³ ²Lµ ½Ò½Hµ ½ Áº³ ² ¶ ¼à²º³ ² ²L¶ ·Hµº½ÂÀ ¼ ½º³ ´ ÁL¼ ¸ ·Ò¸ ·I³ ¼ ¶ ´ Á ´ÅÀ ²º³ ¼ ¼ ¼ Á ½ ·ç»DÁ ¸º³ ² ¸L¼ ¼Ú»L³ µ ² ½ ² ½ ´ÊÀJ»?´º³ ¼ » »D¶Ü²º³ »3¼ ¸ ´HµºÁ À ¸ ÁL¼ ²I³ ´ À ¸ ½ ½ ¼I³ µèÀ ²I³ ¼ ´ ¶@» »éÀ ¼ ½º³ ¸ ¶@»ÉÀ ¶ ´º³ · ¸L¶ µæÀ ²I³ Á ² ¼Lµº¸ÊÀ ¼ µ ²I³ Á ·@»ãÀJ» ³ ¼ Á ¶ ¶ ´ÊÀ ¼ ²º³ ² ¶ ¼ µ¹À ²º³ ¶ ´ ´ ¸ Í À ²I³ µ · ¼@» »RÎ Í ²º³ µ ¶ ´Lµ ´LÎ Í ²I³ ²L¼ µ ¼ ¸LÎ Í ÀJ»L³ ² ² ½ ´L¶ Î Í »L³ »Rµº·L¼@»3Î Í À ²º³ µ µ ¼ ´ ·LÎ Í ²I³ ¶ Á ¼ ´ ¶LÎ Í » ³ » »D¶Lµ ¶LÎ Í À ²I³ · ² ¸ ¸ ÁLÎ Í ²I³ »D´ ÁL¶ ½HÎ

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µº´Hµ ¼I³ ¼ ¶ ½ÐÀ Á ·Hµº·º³ »3µ ¸Ò²º³ ²Lµ Á ¶Lµ ¼êÀ ½L¼I³ ¸ Á ¸ ² ¸ßÀJ»3µ ¸º³ ¼ ´ ¸ÅÀ ²º³ µº¸ · ¼ · ÁÅÀJ»DÁ ½º³ ² ¸L¶ µÔ½º³ ¼ ² ² ¶ ¼ ´ÅÀJ»DÁI³ ¸ · ½ ´ ½ÅÀ ²º³ ½L¼ ¸ ´L¶ ¸ À ´ ²Lµ ²º³ ÁI»ÉÀ ¸ ´ ½ ·I³ ² ·ßÀ ²I³ ½ ² Á ´ ·äÀ ¼ Áº³ µº² ½ßÀ ¸ ½º³ ¸Lµ ¼ ·ÊÀ ²I³ Á ½ ¸I»?·ÊÀ ¼ Á ¸I³ ¼@»?¸ÊÀJ» ³ ½Hµº½ Á ¼ÙÀ ¼ »L³ µ µ ´ ´ÊÀ ²I³ ¸ ½ ¶ ¼ · Í ²º³ ¶ ²L¼ ¼ ½HÎ Í À ²º³ ¸ Á ´ ·I»RÎ Í ²I³ »Rµº·L¼@»3Î Í ÀJ»L³ ¼ ´ · Á ²LÎ Í ÀJ»L³ · · ¸ ½ ²LÎ Í À ²º³ ´ · ¼ ¼ ½LÎ Í À ²º³ Á · ÁI»D½LÎ Í ¼@³ ½ ´ ¼ ¼ ¸HÎ Í À ²I³ ¸ ½ ¶ ½ ÁLÎ Í À ²I³ µ µºÁ ½ ²LÎ

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À Á · ½ ¸º³ ¼ ¶@»ÉÀ ¸ ² ´L¶@³ · ´Ò²º³ Á ¶ ´ ½L¼ ´ë¼I³ ²Lµ ´ ´ ´ ·ÐÀ ·º³ ´ ¸ Á ¶LµºÁÅÀ ²º³ µº½ ½@»D½ ½ÅÀ Á ÁI³ ¶ ¼ · · ¶Ü½º³ ¶ ¸L¶ ¼ ¼ ¶Ç¼ ½I³ ¸ Á@»D· ¼Ü²º³ Á ½L¶ · ½ ´ À ·I»?· ¸º³ Á ·ßÀ ´ · ¶ ¸I³ »D´ À ²º³ ½Lµ · ·¾À ¼ ·I³ ² Á ´L¶ÈÀ ´Lµ@³ ½ ÁHµº·ÊÀ ²I³ ¶@»3µ µº·ÊÀ ¼ ·Hµ ³ ¼ ½ ¼ÙÀJ» ³ Á ½ ¶ ´ ¶ÙÀ ¼ µ@³ Á ½ ÁLµæÀ ²I³ ´Hµ ¼ ¼ µ Í À ²I³ ¶LµºÁ Á ¼LÎ Í À ²º³ ¸ · ² ½L¼LÎ Í » ³ ¶ ¼ µ ¼Lµ Î Í ²I³ ² ¸ ² Á@»RÎ Í À ²º³ » »D¸ ² ¸LÎ Í À ²º³ ¸ ²Lµ ´L¶ Î Í À ²º³ »D´ · ² ¸LÎ Í ¼@³ ½ · ¼ ² ½HÎ Í ²I³ ·L¶ ´ ² ¸HÎ Í ²I³ ¶ ½ ¸ Á@»RÎ

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À ¼ ·º³ · ¼ ¼ »3¶ÞÀ ÁL¶I³ ²I»D´@»D¸Ò²º³ ²@»D½@»D´ ½Ñ²º³ ² Á · ² ´ ¸Ò²º³ »?· ´Lµ »?¸ÅÀ ²º³ ² ²Hµz»D½@»ìÀ ½º³ ½ ¼ ¶ µ ¼ »ìÀ ²º³ ² ² Á ² · ´Ç²º³ »DÁ ²@»D½LµÔ²º³ ² ² ¸ ´L¶ ½ ÀJ»D² Áº³ ¸ · ¸ßÀJ»D² ½º³ »Rµ ¸ßÀ ²I³ ² ²Lµ ² ¼ÉÀ ²º³ ½ ½Hµ ¼ ÁßÀ ²I³ · ¸ ² ½@»ãÀ ²I³ ² ² ¸ ² ¸ÊÀ ½I³ ½ ´Lµ µ ¶ÙÀ ²I³ ²I»?¸L¶ ´ÊÀ ²I³ ¼ ´ ¼ ¼ ¼ÙÀ ²I³ ² ² ·L¶ · Í À ²I³ ¼ ´ ¼ ´ ½HÎ Í À ²º³ ÁLµ ½ ² ·HÎ Í ½I³ ¼ ¸ Á ½ ²LÎ Í ²I³ »D¸ ¶ ¸ ¸HÎ Í ²º³ ¼ ²Lµ µ ·LÎ Í À ²º³ Á ´Lµ µ µ Î Í À ²º³ · ´ ¼ ´ ÁLÎ Í À ²I³ ¼ ´ ´ ½ ·LÎ Í ²I³ Á ½@»D· ¸HÎ Í ²I³ ´I» »3¶ µ Î

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¼ ²º³ ´Lµ Á ·L¶ÈÀJ»D² ¼I³ ¼ ²I»Ø²º³ ² ² ¸ ¼ ´ ½Ñ²º³ ¼ ² ´ ¸ ´HµÃ²º³ ´@»Rµº´ Á ´ÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ² ¶ ² ÁÅÀJ»L³ µºÁL¼ ²L¼ µíÀ ²º³ ² ½Hµº·L¼ ¸Ç²º³ ¼@»3¼ ² ½LµÔ²º³ ² ²Hµ ¶ ¸ · À ´Hµ ³ ½ ² · ·ßÀ ´L¼@³ »?· ¸ ´ßÀ ²I³ ² ² ½L¼ »îÀ ²º³ ¼ ¶ ¶ ½ ¸ßÀ ²I³ ¸ ¸ ½L¼ µæÀ ²I³ ² ² ÁL¶ ½ÊÀ ¼@³ ¶ · ¸ ² ´ÊÀ ²I³ ²I»3µ ² ·ÌÀ ²º³ ¼ ¼Lµº·ÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ¸ ¸ ¼ Í ²º³ ¼ µ ¸ ¼ ÁHÎ Í ÀJ»L³ ¼ µ ½ ½ ÁHÎ Í ¼@³ ¼ ¸ ² ¸ ·LÎ Í ²I³ ¸ ´ ½ ´ ¼LÎ Í »L³ ² Á ½ ´L¼ Î Í À ²º³ »D² ¸ ½ ÁLÎ Í À ²º³ Á ½ ´ ½ ¸LÎ Í À ¼@³ µ ¸ ·L¼ ´LÎ Í ²I³ ·Hµ ¼ ¸ ¸HÎ Í ²I³ ¶ ² ¶ ² ·HÎ

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½I³ ½ · ½ Á ·L¶æµ ¸º³ ÁL¶ ½ ¶ ´ÐÀ ²º³ ² ² ¸ ¼@»D¼êÀ ²º³ »?ÁHµ Á Á ¸Ò²º³ µz»D·@» »3µÔ²º³ ² ²L¼ µ ½ ·ç»L³ ² ·L¼ ´I»?½ÅÀ ²º³ ² ¼ · ²L¼ »ìÀ ²º³ ¼@»D´ Á ² ½ÅÀ ²º³ ² ² ¸ ¸ ² ¼ À ¸ ¸I³ ¸ ´ Á ½ßÀ ¸ ÁI³ ´ ½L¶ ¸ßÀ ²I³ ² ² ¼ · ¶ÉÀ ²º³ ¼Lµ Á ¸ Á À ²º³ ¸@»D½Lµ¹À ²º³ ² ² Á ¼ÙÀ ¼@³ µ ´ ´ ½ ¶ À ²I³ ²I»?½ÌÀ ²º³ ¼ ² ¸ ÁÊÀ ²I³ ² ² ¸I»D¼ Í ²º³ ²Lµ ½ ¶ ½HÎ Í ²º³ ¶ ¼ ¸@»D·LÎ Í À ¼I³ µ ½ ¸ ¼ ´LÎ Í À ²º³ ¶ ¼ ´ ·I»3Î Í ²º³ Á ´ ¸Hµ ·LÎ Í ²I³ µ ¶ ·Hµz»RÎ Í ²I³ µ ½ ·I»?¸HÎ Í À ¼@³ ¼ ½ ¼ ´Hµ Î Í ÀJ» ³ ² Á ½ ² ½LÎ Í ÀJ» ³ ² ´@»D½I»3Î


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ñ *,+Qó ô ö

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ñ *,+Qó ô (ºö

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ñ 9 ó ô õHö

ÿ ø ÷ ú ü þ þ) 3ÿ@ø þ 3û Ø÷ºø ÷ ÷ ÷ Lû ü ÷ºø ÷ ùLû ÷ üÒ÷ºø ÿ ÿ ú ý üLû: Iø ù ù!; ÷ ù ÷ºø úLþ ý ÿ # ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ÿ Dù ÷Iø ÷Hûºý ü ù þÔ÷ºø ÷ ÷ ÿLû þ þ ?üIø ÷ ùLû û DþIø þ ÿ ü % ÿ ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ÷ þ

ù ÷Iø ÷ ù ú ÷Iø ?ùLþ û ÷ºø ÷ ÷ Rû ÷Iø ùLûºù ù ü ÷Iø ÷ ÷ !ÿ ù ÷ºø ÷LûºùHûº ý ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ?ùLþ ÷ ø ù ù ÷ ý ø û ú ?ý ú ÷ºø ÷ ü ù ÷ þ ÷Iø þ üL!þ ÷ºø üHû ÿ ú ÿ ø ÷ ý ú þ ø ù ü ø ÿ ú ú ùL þ ÷ºø ü ù H û Lø ú ÷ þ

ñ 9 ó ô ö

D÷Iø ù ü ü ú þ) Iø ÷ þ ÷ ÿà÷ºø ÷ ÷ DùLû! ÷ºø ÷Hû ÿ û üLû ÷Iø ú ýLÿ ûºú< ÿ@ø þ ý!; ÷ ù ø û ÷ ÷ ü# ÷Iø ÷ ÷Lû þ! ý ÷Iø ÷ ü Dù ü< ùIø Lû ; ÷ ù ÿ úºø ù ÷ ú ÿ ÿIø ý 3û % ÿ ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ÷

ý ÷Iø ÷ üLû ÿ ù ÷Iø ÿ Dù ù þ ÷ºø ÷ ÷ ?ù ü ÷Iø ü ù þ ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ú ý ú ÷Iø ÷ þ ÿ ü ÷Iø ÷ ÷L ÿ Dù ú D÷ ÷Iø ù üLÿ ÷ ÷ Lø Lÿ ÷ ùL û ÷ºø ÷ ?ü ?ú ø ý þ ùH û Lø DýLû ÷ ù ø ÿ û þ þ ÷ ÷ºø ÷Lÿ ü 3û ÷Iø ûºù ÷ ÷H û ÷ºø ü ?ý Lø ü

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3ÿ@ø ù ý 3û " Lø ùHûºù ý ÿ ùÒ÷ºø ÷ ÷ Rûºý ú ÷ºø ÷ ÷Lû ÿ ý ù" ÷ºø ÷ ?ú ý ú# ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ÷ ù Lÿ6 ÷ºø ?ú ù ü ü# ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ÷Hûºü ý ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ÿ! Lþ ÷ºø ÷ ÷ Dý ü ù ÿ ùIø û þ ÿ ù ÿ û@ø Lÿ û % þ ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ÷ ý

ü ÷Iø ÷ ÷Hûº ù ÷Iø ÿ ú ú ù 3 ú ÷Iø ÷ ÷ Dü ÷Iø 3û ù ù ÷Iø ÷ ÷Lû ÿ ù ÷ºø ÷ þ ü ý ÿ ÷Iø ÷ ÷Lÿ ú ú û Dù ú ÷Iø ÷ ù ú ú ý ÷ºø ÷ ù ý ÷ºø úLû ÿ ú ü ÷Iø ý ý ÷ºø Dÿ þ ý ÷Iø ÷Lû ÿ 3ÿ ÷Iø Lû ü ÿ ú ÷Iø ûºýHûº ù ÷ºø ÷Lþ ÿ ÿ ü Lø ùH

ñ 9 ó ô ( ö

DüIø ?ýHû þ ú" ÿ ÿ@ø ÿ ÿ ý ÿ! Ò÷ºø ÷ ÷ 3ÿ Dù ÷Iø ÷Lûºü þà÷ºø ÿ ?ù ý ÷ ý# ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ?ü ù ü ÷Iø úLû ü# ÷Iø ÷ ÷ úHû Hû5 ÷Iø ÷ Dÿ þÔ÷ºø ÷ ÷ ÷ ü ÷ ÿ ÷Iø úHû ?ýºø ú ÿ ÿ% ÷Iø ÷ ÷ ÷ ü ü ÷Iø ÷ þ û ÿ ü ÷Iø Lþ ù þ ÷ºø ÷ ÷ ?úLþ ÷Iø þ ù ÷ üLû7 ÷ºø ÷ ÷ úHû8 ÷ºø ÷ ùLû ÿ þ ÷Iø ÷ ÷ Lþ ÷ºø H ûºùLÿ ý Lø 3ÿ ÷ ü Lø ù ü ÷Lþ ÿ ÷ºø üHû û ü ÷ ø Dù ü ú ÷ Lø ÿ ý ÿ ü ÷Iø ù ÿ ù úLþ Lø ÷Lÿ ù ÷ þ ÷Iø ÿ ÿLûºù ÷Iø ú ü ý ý

ñ = ò +?>¨ó ô õLö

ú üIø Dü Dþ@ ?ú ø þ ÷ þ" ÷ºø ÷ þ ù ù úØúºø ÷ Dþ ÿ ý" Rû ø þ û ú ÷ ýÇ÷Iø ÷ ÿ ú þ ù ü ú ùIø ù D÷ / ÷Iø ü ý ÷ºø ÷ ú þ ÷ ü ÷ºø ?÷ ü ùLû ü Dÿ ú üIø ý Dÿ ÷ þ@ø ÷Iø ÷Lû ü ÷ ý úIø ý ?÷ ý þ% ø ú ù ú ÿ ÷Iø ÷ ÿ ü ú ýIø þ ÷ ÷ ÿ ÷Iø ÿ ÷ þ! Hû8 úºø ú ÷ ÿ ?ý ÷Iø Dú úLþ ÷ºø ú Dÿ ü ü ÷Iø ý ú ü þ ú ALø ú ý ú ù ÷ºø ü ü 3ÿ û Lø ÿ ý ü ü ÷ºø ÿ þ ÷ ù ÷Iø ý ù ÷ ÷ºø ù üLû ü ú ÷Iø ÷ ?÷ ý ÿ ÷ºø ýHû ü ù

ñ = ò +?>¨ó ô ö

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ñ = ò +?>¨ó ô ö

?ú ÷ºø ÿ ü ÿ) Dý üºø D÷ ÷ ý- ÷ºø ÷Lû þ ú ýLþ4 úºø ý Dü ú" ºø ÷ ÷Lþ! LûÔ÷Iø ÷ ú ý ?ú úÇÿ ùIø ý üHû á÷Iø û Lû ù 0 ÷Iø 3ÿ ù ú ü úÜ÷ºø ÷LûºúHûºü ù 3û DüIø ÷ ü ?ú ø ù ü ÷Iø ÷ ù ú ý û ø ûºü ü ÷ ù Dÿ@ø ý ý þ ù ÷ºø ÷ ýLû þ ü ûºùIø ú úLÿ ÿ ÷Iø ÿ ú þ ü úºø ü ÷ Dþ ÷Iø Dÿ ý üLþ ÷Iø ü ý ü þ ÷ºø Rû ÿ þ þ ÷ºø þ ÷Lþ ú ÷Iø ü ÷ ü ÷ ÷ºø þ ü ü Dþ ÷ºø û ?ú úLû ÷Iø ù üLÿ ý ý ÿ@ø ÷Hû þ ÿ ÿ ÷Iø ÷ ú ú Dü ÷Iø ú ú ù ÷ ú

ñ = ò +?>¨ó ô (ºö

û ÿ üIø û û ûºýÒý ýºø ü ú Dþà÷ºø ÷ þ ÿ ÿ úIø ú ÿ þ þ ü" þIø þ Dÿ ù ù ü# ÷Iø ÷ ù ý ù ýºø ú Dþ ú ÷ á÷Iø ?ýLþ! üÜúIø ù þLû þLû 0 ÷ºø ÷ ú ü Dÿ ù Dÿ Rû ø üLû Lû ø ú ÷Iø ÷Lû þ ÿ úIø ú ü ÿ% ø Rûº÷ ý ÷ºø ÷ 3þ ú Iø ù ý ü ÷Iø ÿ ÷ ÿ ý úºø ÿ ûº÷Hû û ÷Iø DÿLû ÷ºø ú ù ÷Iø ú ù ü ÷ Lø L þ ù ý ÷ºø L þ þ ÷ºø ù ý ú ùLû ÷ºø ü ú ü ù þ ÷Iø ÿ ú ý üHû ÷Iø ù ý þ þ ø ?÷ ÷ ÷ ù ÷ºø ú ú ú üLû


C D?EGF F!H I J K

L M M N O O M M)P Q Q N R!O S T Q S N S S O L L L<P S N U T V S Q Q S N W T!R R T!R P S N S S W V L U P S N W O V S V#P S N S S Q Q T L0P S N T!S V U L T P S N S S S L R P L M!V N O Q M%P L M R N U U R%P S N S S T V UXP S N T S V T P L N L Q Q T O P S N S S Q R R P T N L T O U U P S N S M L R O P S N U T O R!W P S N S L L Q W Y S N V T!O W O Z Y P S N W S L W L Z Y L N S U R Q S Z Y P S N Q O M R!V Z Y S N R M!Q M O Z Y P S N V L U V R Z Y P S N L Q U L M Z Y P S N T!S Q U L Z Y P L N L Q T L L Z Y P S N S L U T V Z

C D?EGF F!H I [!K

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

C D?EGF F!H I ^!K

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

C D?EGF F!H I ` K

O O N V S L M TaQ U N M R T S V S N S S S W T T S N L V Q W Q T.P S N U L U V T V_S N S S U R!Q Q P L N O L M!Q R!V#P S N S M L V U R6P S N U T S T L L0P S N S S O O M M P L L V N O L P L L R N O L R%P S N S S T O O P S N U W W O Q P L N S V R!S W P S N S S W V Q P U N Q M!U L M P S N S L V V W P S N U L Q Q P S N S L S V T Y S N T!R W W R Z Y S N W L T!R M Z Y S N L R!U W M Z Y S N O M R T W Z Y P S N M Q R T U Z Y S N T R L Q T Z Y P S N U V O W M Z Y P L N S V Q O S Z Y P L N S R W W Q Z Y P S N O S T!O W Z

C b c?H I J K

P M U R!S N W U O"P W V V N O Q Q T)P S N L T L V T!O L N V O S W U U"P M W N R!S W M T]S N T L M M T!QdT M N O O O M!V1L N V W U T V Q_M L N M W T T L0P S N S L O R M L P T Q M Q N Q M%P T W S W N Q R P S N L Q U W P L O N M!O R L P T T N M Q W M P S N U M M R M P L O T N T!W O P S N Q S R!Q W P L M N Q Q L U P S N T T M L V Y P S N T!Q Q Q Q Z Y P S N L R!V Q T Z Y P S N W W M R!Q Z Y S N L M!W Q W Z Y P S N R M!U U W Z Y L N M W W Q U Z Y S N M!W O T Q Z Y M N T T O Q W Z Y L N R!O L O W Z Y P S N S U O U U Z

C b c?H I [!K

M L M T N V L W T!V R O N T U R"P S N S T W M!U Q L U N Q V R T!R8V W N T V L W T]S N M!U M R T!Q_M S T N U O W V_S N S R!O S T!W_M!S N L Q R R R]S N T T T!S T M P R!S S T N O P O Q O T N S Q P S N M M Q T!U P L Q N V W S T P O O N S R!V Q P S N T!S L L R P L V M N S Q T P L N S S U U M P L R N S L W R P S N O T!V Q O Y S N U O U Q V Z Y S N Q T Q M S Z Y P S N M!S R Q S Z Y S N W U M O U Z Y L N W W S U U Z Y S N O W V V U Z Y L N S R U V S Z Y S N S R T Q U Z Y L N M R!S M!Q Z Y S N Q S W O Q Z

C b c?H I ^!K

T!V T Q N S S Q Q Q U N U R M M"P S N U S O M!W O&M N M Q O S T!R)P V R N R!O V O LeS N S O T T!M M6P L L T N U S O O P L N U T!M!S V P L O N S Q Q O O P S N O M!Q W S W P R!Q Q O N S Q P R W L M N R%P S N M R L V U P M L N W O M!O P R U N L T!R P S N T R P M M!S N M O T P L N L O S T R P L Q N U R R R P S N R!U S T!Q Y S N W L Q R R Z Y S N L U L R S Z Y PAL N L R!O T Q Z Y S N L S O S O Z Y P L N O U S W U Z Y S N L L Q U L Z Y P S N O L Q V W Z Y P L N L R R O W Z Y P S N Q M L O M Z Y P S N Q U Q O W Z

C b c?H I ` K

T!Q V M N O Q R8U Q V N R U L O-P S N L S S R!O R4P U N L O S W W O"P L W N U U W T O_S N U M L W T!U P L W N M!V U V T]S N L U T!O R O P M N W O R L M LfS N M!O S O O L P O W T!R N W P O R S M N W T P S N M L Q R M$P L Q N L O R%P O M N W S O T P S N U Q U V T P L Q U N Q U W P S N V R!S M T8P L O N U M V V P S N O M R M T Y S N Q O L U W Z Y S N S R!V O T Z Y P S N T!R!S T L Z Y P S N L W U O T Z Y P S N U M!Q V O Z Y S N Q U Q S S Z Y P S N S V T S W Z Y S N L T S L T Z Y P S N L W V W V Z Y S N T W R L M Z

g

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ikj l!m n r?s t n!u v w u xyw z,i j l m n |~} v l v w v w ย !w

S N R R U R!U S N M L S T Q V S N O U M Q O Q{S N O M M M V L{S N T R!V T U R\S N M M T T S L0P S N M O U W R LeS N T!M!Q V R Q\S N L L Q V U RqS N L U O R L U N V O V U W Tย L N U V V V L&M N W L L S L W&M N R U V V Q W M N U M!W L Q MBL N T U U V Q V S N R!V R T\M N L M R Q M UBL N M!S M T!Q R2L N M!U O U M W

ย ย j l!w j nyj m w v n m w ย ย ย ย l m tGj m w v n m w

T R N W Q T!R!U R S N V W M T W

(t istatistikleri parantez iรงinde gรถsterilmektedir.)


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