University of California, Berkeley IEOR 186 Product Management October 19, 2016 Assignment 1 Matt Campbell Oriya Cohen Zane Liu Spencer Marx Bianca Romulo Isaiah Yoon
TABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT
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PART ONE • DEFINING THE OPPORTUNITY A. TARGET CUSTOMERS
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B. VALUE PROPOSITION
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C. MARKET SIZE
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D. COMPETITORS & ALTERNATIVES
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E. DIFFERENTIATORS
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F. RISKS & ASSUMPTIONS
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G. PITCH
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PART TWO • DEFINING THE MVP A. OVERALL MVP BUSINESS GOAL
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B. POTENTIAL CONSTRAINTS
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C. CORE USER STORIES
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D. POTENTIAL FEATURES
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REFERENCES
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APPENDIX PERSONAS
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RISKS AND ASSUMPTIONS
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POTENTIAL BUSINESS OBJECTIVES
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SKETCHES AND MODELS
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ABOUT
Babylon is an accessible & affordable community garden for the urban dweller, and a dedicated food source for the eco-conscious company. Through a subscription based model that provides seeds and nutrients, Babylon intelligently farms organically grown fruits and vegetables at home or in the office with hydroponics (growing plants using water instead of soil), providing fresh produce while minimizing your wastes and your carbon footprint. Babylon is the convenient, affordable, and best experience for hyper localized fresh produce.
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PART ONE: DEFINING THE OPPORTUNITY A. TARGET CUSTOMERS 1. Urban Developers - Customer ● ● ● ●
Age: 35 - 60 Socio-economic background: Organize development of 20+ unit buildings Geography: Growing urban cities with low food access such as Honolulu, HI Goal: Construction of eco-friendly buildings
Behaviors and personality Urban developers are sustainability conscious individuals who are interested in incorporating unique, environmentally friendly designs to differentiate their developments in a competitive housing market. Developers are driven by new standards and policies to promote healthier, more sustainable lifestyles. As costs for green technology decreases, urban developers seek to adapt to new trends. The higher age range suggests adequate experience in the market. In addition, an urban, developed city as the geographic location suggests an incentive to provide environmentally responsible housing. 2. Urban Professionals - User ● ● ● ●
Age: 23 - 45 Socio-economic background: Can range from young urban professionals or bachelors to young urban families Geography: Growing urban areas such as Honolulu, HI Goal: Live a healthier and more sustainable lifestyle when consuming fresh, organic produce.
Behaviors and personality: Urban professionals are fast paced, tech savvy, and health conscious individuals who are interested in environmental sustainability. However, their typical eating habits are driven by busy schedules and characterized by frequent meals at local restaurants. Users are frustrated with their current eating habits and motivated to find a more affordable, convenient, and sustainable food source.
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B1. VALUE PROPOSITION - CUSTOMERS For the Urban Developer: The Problem As housing developers look to increase the value of their properties and differentiate themselves in the market, it is difficult to find low cost solutions for attractive amenities. With increasing market demand and new policies aimed at promoting healthy and sustainable living, there is a need to find cost effective solutions to support a greener lifestyle. Value Proposition ● ● ●
Increases the value of housing developments Differentiates a housing development in the market Leverages new tax incentives around local food production
B2. VALUE PROPOSITION - USERS For the Urban Professional: The Problem Fresh, organic produce is often quite costly. While users desire a healthier lifestyle, going shopping and spending extra money to sustain a GMO free diet is a challenge. There is a need for more affordable, more readily accessible organic produce. Value Proposition ● Delivers a healthy, sustainable lifestyle for the busy, urban dweller ● Exchanges the inconvenience of grocery shopping for a more convenient indoor vertical farming solution ● Offers lower prices than grocery stores by removing the middleman and by building farming directly into an apartment complex ● Knowing what is placed into the produce through localized farming
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FIGURE 1 • Model of single Babylon unit
C. MARKET SIZE Criteria for Geographic Market Selection: TABLE 1 • Criteria for Geographic Market Selection
CRITERIA Urban rate of development
Low food access Average age Disposable Income Sustainably Oriented
PROXY Change in the Percent of Housing Permits for 5+ Unit Buildings Approved Greater than 10% of residents have low food access Between 28 and 40 years old Median Income Level $65,000+ General Plan policies mentioning efficient agriculture and/or food
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Population Density
High relative population density
Urban Region of Interest - Honolulu, Hawaii: Urban Rate of Development ● Change in the Percent of Housing Permits Approved for 5+ Unit Buildings ○ 2014: 17 housing permits for 5+ Unit Buildings1 ○ 2015: 90 housing permits for 5+ Unit Buildings2 Food Access ● Percentage of residents with low food access: 19.8%3 Average Age ● Approximately 37.2 years old4 Disposable Income ● Median Income Level: $73,5814 Sustainably Oriented ● General Plan policies mentions efficient agriculture and/or food: Yes5 Population Density ● High relative population density: Yes, 4th highest in US6
1 2 3 4 5 6
“Table 3au. New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized…” US Census Bureau. 2014. Web. 17 October 2016. “Table 3au. New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized…” US Census Bureau. 2015. Web. 17 October 2016. “Honolulu County, Hawaii Food Access Statistics.” Health Grove. GRAPHIQ. 2016. Web. 17 October 2016. “United States Community Facts.” American Fact Finder. US Census Bureau. 2010. Web. 17 October 2016. “General Plan Objective and Policies.” Department of General Planning. City and County of Honolulu. 1992. Amended 3 October 2002. PDF. “Highest Population Densities By US Metropolitan Areas.” World Atlas. 19 September 2016. Web. 17 October 2016.
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FIGURE 2 • Babylon’s potential three year forecast in Honolulu, Hawaii
The Top Down market size in Honolulu, Hawaii: TABLE 2 • Top Down Market Size in Honolulu, Hawaii
Year 1 (2016-17)
Year 2 (2017-18)
Year 3 (2018-19)
Penetration Rate
0.5%
1%
2%
Total Building Units
109,477
111,119
112,786
547
1,111
2,255
0
547
1,658
Module-based revenue
$443,750
$900,650
$1,828,630
Ongoing Condo Modules
N/A for first year
182
1,658
Subscription Revenue
N/A for first year
$157,540
$477,500
Total Revenue Forecast
$443,750
$1,058,190
$2,306,130
Market Served (New condos)
Ongoing Units (Subscribed Condos)
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There are common sensitivities in our model to consider during early development. These sensitivities have been split in relation to our two target customers: urban developers and urban apartment residents. Babylon intends to initially incentivize our product to urban developers, who may be reluctant to invest in the product before seeing any results. We tackle this by providing examples of relatable use cases where the product has been successful, as well as providing tested metric models that specify general timeframes and expectancies for product growth in time. A proper explanation of how the initial investment will be paid off within the first year as well as return on investment generated by Babylon is crucial to understanding the monetary value of the product. About Honolulu, Hawaii:7 ● Condominiums ■ 2010 = 100,438 ● 2006-2010 Growth Rate = 6% ○ ■
Average Rate = 1.5% per year
2016 onward unit forecasts ● 2016-17 = 109,477 ● 2017-18 = 111,119 ● 2018-19 = 112,786
To subvert reluctance to subscribe from the apartment residents’ side, Babylon will be built into the apartment utility contract. This accounts for the possible case where the product is set up by the urban developer and residents are reluctant to opt-in to the program, relying instead on traditional methods. To ensure equal allocation of produce, all residents will have a dedicated space, similar to how a mailbox system operates. ● Penetration Rate Assumptions:8,9 ○ Standard Consumer Product = 2 to 6% Penetration Rate ● Simplified Assumptions: ○ Yearly growth rate of condo units will remain constant through 2019 at nearly 1.5% per year 7 8 9
Cassiday, Ricky. “Honolulu Rental Market.” Department of Community Services. City & County of Honolulu. 2014. PDF. Nordmeyer, Billie. “How To Estimate Market Penetration.” Chron. studioD. 2016. Web. 17 October 2016. “What is Market Penetration?” Smartling. 2016. Web. 17 October 2016.
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○ ○
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For every 3 condo units captured, 1 module will be purchased by developer Penetration rate will be characteristic of a consumer product (such as early adopters). For Year 1, we will capture 0.5% (a conservative estimate) and as we gain traction, will climb to 1% in Year 2 and finally 2% during Year 3 — it will compound year to year due to additive modes of revenue for the initial module purchase and subsequent subscriptions. Revenue model (for the standard 15 unit complex): ● Initial module purchase: $2000 ● Subscription cost for residents = $40 a month per unit ● Developer collects ○ 1st year unit revenue: $2,432/module ■ $2,000 for module ■ $1,440/year for 3 units ● Babylon takes 30% = $432/module ● Developer takes 70% = $1008/module nd ○ 2 year+ unit revenue: $864/module ■ $1,440/year for 3 units ● Babylon takes 60% = $864/module ● Developer takes 40% = $576/module
D. COMPETITORS & ALTERNATIVES TABLE 3 • Comparing Babylon’s core features against current competitive landscape
TARGET MARKET
HOME GARDEN
COMMUNITY GARDEN
GROCERY STORES
Suburban residents
Urban residents
Those who cook
- grow your produce
- community feel - healthy - fits dense cities
- reliable, routine, and consistent - healthy - variety of products
- locally accessible - customizable
- locally accessible - builds community - somewhat flexible
- established brand - trust with users - industry connection
- requires time - investment money - need experience
- requires community outreach - setup costs
- requires trips and time - poor quality goods due to pesticides etc.
VALUE - save money & time PROPOSITION - healthy lifestyle
STRENGTHS - private
WEAKNESSES
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-not always safe (others may not abide by garden rules and take produce that is not theirs)
- not always organic
- self grown
- self grown - fresh and organic
- organic
- by household only - no community - requires extra costs - self maintenance
- shared farm space - space deficiency - less flexibility - free space & set up
- no guarantee that produce is fresh or clean - higher costs
SIMILARITIES - fresh and organic
DIFFERENCES
Local groceries, as seen in Figure 3 above, are the market leader and the greatest threat to Babylon due to its familiarity, its existing infrastructure, and the brand recognition that has been established. Local groceries have a sense of trust with many consumers, and the variety of food options it consistently and reliably provides strengthens its position as the incumbent food provider in urban communities.
FIGURE 3 • Babylon’s potential market comparison against current competitive landscape
By marketing the idea of an environmentally sustainable, easy to maintain, and homegrown produce system in addition to a healthy lifestyle to customers and users, Babylon intends to bring more to the table than just a way to buy food and compete with local groceries. Babylon provides a more convenient, a more 11
affordable, and overall better experience to access fresh produce. We are aware that it is impossible to replace the grocery store as the ultimate food provider for a community — however, we are providing a supplementary amenity that will make fresh produce more accessible and more affordable for the health and environmentally conscious urban professional.
FIGURE 4 • Babylon Single Unit Design
E. DIFFERENTIATORS What Babylon uniquely offers customers: Automation One of Babylon’s key features is its intelligent harvesting process that is entirely automated, meaning that the only labor required by the user is to plant the seeds, track its growth progress, and collect the produce when it is ready. Automation decreases the risk of human error and guarantees fresh and organic produce, eradicating the distrust often experienced with third-party produce exporters in terms of GMOs and the degree of cleanliness affecting the quality of the produce. Convenience The fact that Babylon is integrated in urban apartment complexes makes it incredibly convenient for busy urban professionals to gather their produce and bring it to their apartment to cook right away. No need for groceries and no concerns about food going bad. Ownership Babylon provides the opportunity for urban professionals to develop a close relationship with the produce that they eat. This is important, especially in urban environments, where urban dwellers are becoming more conscious of where their 12
produce is coming from and how it is grown. Urban citizens are gravitating toward the trend of either producing their own fresh, organic produce or buying it from expensive locally-produced sources to ensure the best quality.
FIGURE 5 • Babylon rendered to scale in real world setting
Why Babylon is appealing to customers and users: Urban Developers Babylon is appealing to urban developers because it provides the ability for apartment residents to grow fresh and organic produce in their homes, increasing the development’s property value and overall revenue. It also provides a low cost, highly attractive amenity for the housing complex to differentiate itself in the saturated housing market. Urban Professionals Babylon is appealing to urban professionals because it provides a convenient, affordable, and environmentally sustainable way to grow their own produce in the comfort of their apartment complexes. In doing so, it promotes a culture of community farming with other tenants in the building. Urban professionals get a sense of ownership of the produce they ultimately consume. 13
F. RISKS & ASSUMPTIONS TABLE 4 • Babylon’s risk probabilities and impacts with actionable plan
RISK
Unfamiliar and uncomfortable with hydroponics
Laws and community guidelines
New technology such as UberEats
Hydroponic farming pitfalls
Farming supplies price increase
DESCRIPTION - users scared of automated farming - users think they need technical knowledge - public or private laws restrict and prevent installation of device in buildings
- new technology undercuts costs to end user - more convenient
- New and untested farming system causes massive failures - Yields are substantially lower than expected
-The supplies needed to run the system (seeds, nutrients, tools) become too expensive for a large portion of users
PROBABILITY
HIGH
MEDIUM
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
IMPACT
HIGH
PLAN 1. stress the fully automated nature of product 2. push for media coverage of hydroponic farming 3. create user friendly guides
HIGH
1. dedicate a legal team to research legislative barriers 2. lobbying to advocate for Babylon functionality laws 3. proactively talk with developers, boards, and committees about regulations
MEDIUM
1. market personal and customizable features 2. stress the hyperlocal aspect of the product, highlighting small carbon footprint 3. look into new technology applications and new business models to compete
MEDIUM
1. Spend more resources during discovery and testing to ensure technology is stable 2. Invest in a substantial customer support system 3. Lower expectations to customers if a problem arises and add money/food guarantees
MEDIUM
1. Work with seed companies to ensure sustainable prices for the future 2. Order supplies in bulk to lower the price per unit 3. Create financing plans and alternative pricing strategies so customers can afford supplies
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G1. PITCH - CUSTOMER With an increasing market-demand for sustainable and healthy living in San Francisco, housing developers need new low cost solutions to provide lifestyle focused amenities. As a new utility for the home, Babylon builds community, provides tenants with fresh affordable produce, and helps housing developers differentiate themselves in the market.
G2. PITCH - USER The Babylon system brings access to hyper-local produce, alleviating travel times and offering a sustainable food source. Through a community-shared, vertical garden that can be stored and accessed anywhere, Babylon allows the urban dweller to grow and harvest their own fruits and vegetables in the comfort of their own homes.. With an intelligently automated hydroponic system, Babylon is selfsustaining, allowing for a completely hands-off gardening experience.
G3. PITCH FEEDBACK - CUSTOMER Comments: ● Unclear what the product actually is. ● Do housing developers actually need differentiators in a market that has such high demand regardless of the conditions of the housing? ● Is this the kind of differentiator that makes a difference if it is increasing cost in already expensive housing market? Recommendations: ● Clearly define what the product is. Explain what hydroponic farming is. ● Find a market that actually needs differentiators - San Francisco housing demand is too high that housing developers will not care about new amenities like Babylon. ● Find a market where providing fresh produce isn’t simply a new amenity but actually solves a pressing need of the user (i.e. the cost of produce is too high or fresh food access is a serious problem).
G4. PITCH FEEDBACK - USER Comments: ● Don’t necessarily want to grow food in their own apartment - space is already an issue (unclear about “in their own home” line) ● How do you grow fruits hydroponically? 15
● How much will this cost? Is it more convenient given the fact that I already go to the grocery store? Recommendations: ● Define exactly where users can expect to use this product. ● Clarify what can be grown within the system, maybe do not mention fruits. ● Emphasize the low cost nature of the system, find a market where the cost of produce is expensive.
G5. UPDATED PITCH - CUSTOMER People seeking housing in dense urban centers are becoming increasingly concerned with the limited availability and price of fresh produce. Babylon offers a solution aimed at urban developers who would offer these apartment hunters a community-shared, fully automated produce garden. By creating a sustainable and affordable produce source for residents within their own buildings, urban developers can add tangible value to their properties and help differentiate themselves in the market.
G6. UPDATED PITCH - USER Babylon provides access to hyper-local produce, alleviating travel time spent buying produce from the grocery store and offering an affordable, sustainable food source. Our community-shared, vertical garden allows the urban dweller to grow and harvest their own produce without breaking up their daily routine or hurting their wallet. With Babylon’s fully automated hydroponic system, shopping for produce becomes as easy as picking up the mail.
PART TWO: DEFINING THE OPPORTUNITY A. OVERALL MVP BUSINESS GOAL Babylon’s number one business goal is breaking into a new market segment. To date, the home and community gardening model, with respect to advanced technology and automation has not been successfully infiltrated. It will take a tremendous amount of our resources to tackle this goal, but it is objectively the most important goal to our product’s role as a disruptor and the future growth of this market. Customers must understand the value Babylon brings to urban 16
developments and are convinced of its efficacy when implemented and assessed over time. Without market engagement, penetrating the market segment will be unfeasible. To succeed in infiltrating the market, Babylon needs to find a location that is rapidly growing, has rising livability costs, and is in need of affordable and accessible fresh produce.
B. POTENTIAL CONSTRAINTS Geography: O’ahu, HI O’ahu, HI provides the urban, technology-forward environment desired to see Babylon in action. Launching locally initially allows for proper product testing, analysis and user feedback before scaling nationally. Size: 4 feet cubed The product should not raise size concerns in the complex, but must also maintain food growth and output at a reasonable pace. Babylon converges on the opportune size by maximizing produce output in a small and attractive package.
FIGURE 6 • Simple CAD of Babylon case and shelf units (not to scale)
Food Variety: Vegetables and limited fruit selections Vegetables have reasonable growth rates and size constraints for regular produce collection while fruits are more varied. However, Babylon can sustain growth of certain fruits with growth rates and sizes similar to vegetables including berries, figs, and peaches. A proper selection of fruits and vegetables ensures that the produce can grow within the size constraints of our trays and have a year-round regularity for the apartment residents to consume.
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The most important constraints for the MVP are size and location. By initially limiting our scope to one city and keeping the size at 4 cubic feet, we can realistically deliver the product on schedule and digest user data comprehensively. Limiting food variety is more user dependent and will not necessarily impact the speediness and quality of our release, but is important to consider down the line to allow user preference. We did not add the location of our product in apartment developments in our list of constraints. When situating units, it will be important to take into account design, ease of access, and optimal growing conditions. Seeing that apartments vary across the board with these factors, it would be best to situate units on a case-bycase basis.
C. CORE USER STORIES The Babylon system gives the urbanite access to fresh, sustainable, and local produce in the midst of their everyday lives. By creating a self-sustaining, community-shared garden that can be placed anywhere, developers and community leaders can look to the Babylon system to add value to any shared living spaces or community centers. It is an easy, convenient way to produce fruits and vegetables, while also connecting the end user to the gardening process in an unobtrusive way. 1. As an urban working professional, I want to enjoy the benefits of urban gardening and fresh organic produce without extraneous personal investment. 2. As an urban apartment developer, I want to maximize the utility of my common spaces to differentiate my units in the market and increase the value of my properties.
D. POTENTIAL FEATURES TABLE 5 • Babylon potential feature list roadmap
FEATURE Hydroponic
Individual Trays
DESCRIPTION Utilize hydroponic technology (i.e. growing produce without for growing produce Disperse gardening space into stacked trays, assign each tray to a specific person
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Portability
Install hardware to allow ease of movement, such as wheels
Automated Gardening
Auto-water produce, dependent on produce conditions
Automated Planting
Auto-plant seeds selected by the user
Automated Harvesting
Auto-harvest produce and retrieve for user
Push notifications
Send push notifications for event updates (harvesting, seeding, watering, warnings)
Plant Monitoring
Monitor plants for health and security plus other key factors and log results
Website/Application
Allow user accounts to monitor and track allocated space and growth progress of their produce
Advanced Marketing Platform
Design comprehensive marketing action plan infiltrate and compete with all potential markets
Automatic Tracking System
View percentage of the system utilized in realtime (i.e. our #1 KPI)
Security Measures
Modularity
Geographic Expansion
Implement security system so users can only open their own tray Combine systems seamlessly for ease of system addition/removal Release in alternate progressive cities and eventually to all cities across the US
Support for Secondary Devices
Allow for third party applications and auxiliary devices
Subscription and Recipe Model
Allow customers to receive pre-portioned seeds on a monthly basis that fit their unique diets and consumption patterns, accompanied with recipes for dishes incorporating the produce they will grow 19
Door to Door Supply Delivery
Order seeds and gardening tools directly through the online store or app Extend into the education market as a learning tool for science and agriculture classes
Growth into Education
Interact with other users through an online space
Babylon Community Nutrient Manipulation
Adjust desired nutrient percentages manually
Sufficient Engineering Quality
Last 5 years without maintenance and 10 years with routine maintenance
TABLE 6 • List of Babylon Support, MVP, and Mature Product Features
SUPPORT FEATURES
MVP FEATURES
MATURE PRODUCT FEATURES
Hydroponic
Automatic Tracking System
Babylon Community
Individual Trays
Portability
Growth into Education
Automated Gardening
Plant Monitoring
Support for Secondary Devices
Security Measures
Push notifications
Advanced Marketing Platform
Sufficient Engineering Quality
Website/Application
Geographic Expansion
Modularity
Automated Planting
Door to Door Supply Delivery
Automated Harvesting Nutrient Manipulation Subscription Model
There were several key differing opinions when it came to grouping features. The biggest point of disagreement revolved around the level of required user interaction, specifically the Website/Application and the Door to Door Supply Delivery features. We were all in agreement that the MVP needed to be automated and hands-off, after all
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that was our key differentiator and the essence of our value proposition for our working professional user. However, a website/app combined with a door to door supply delivery program would be a large undertaking that some of thought wasn’t needed in order to deliver on our value proposition. On the other hand if our true value came from a fully automated product, we thought that the value would diminish greatly if users would have to research and buy supplies as well as monitor their plants regularly.
REFERENCES [1]
“Table 3au. New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized…” US Census Bureau. 2014. Web. 17 October 2016.
[2]
“Table 3au. New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized…” US Census Bureau. 2015. Web. 17 October 2016.
[3]
“Honolulu County, Hawaii Food Access Statistics.” Health Grove. GRAPHIQ. 2016. Web. 17 October 2016.
[4]
“United States Community Facts.” American Fact Finder. US Census Bureau. 2010. Web. 17 October 2016.
[5]
“General Plan Objective and Policies.” Department of General Planning. City and County of Honolulu. 1992. Amended 3 October 2002. PDF.
[6]
“Highest Population Densities By US Metropolitan Areas.” World Atlas. 19 September 2016. Web. 17 October 2016.
[7]
Cassiday, Ricky. “Honolulu Rental Market.” Department of Community Services. City & County of Honolulu. 2014. PDF.
[8]
[9]
Nordmeyer, Billie. “How To Estimate Market Penetration.” Chron. studioD. 2016. Web. 17 October 2016. “What is Market Penetration?” Smartling. 2016. Web. 17 October 2016.
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APPENDIX PERSONAS:
Meet Karen Urban Professional Karen is a 24 year-old living in Honolulu and works as a product manager for an emerging tech company. Although she is health-conscious and concerned about environmental sustainability, she usually goes to restaurants on the weekends or gets take-out because her busy work schedule does not give her time to shop for groceries after work or prepare a well-balanced, organic, healthy meal at home. Currently, Karen is frustrated with their current eating habits and is motivated to change this by seeking out a way where she can access affordable, convenient, and environmentally sustainable food.
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Meet Phil Urban Developer Phil is a 58-year-old urban housing developer in Honolulu. He has been in the industry for over 30 years, specializing in building new developments in the rapidly growing city of Honolulu. Phil has always looked for unique designs and products that can differentiate his developments in the extremely aggressive Honolulu housing market. In the last decade, he has seen a wave of developments marketed as “environmentally-friendly” rise in popularity, and now wants to put his projects on that path.
RISKS & ASSUMPTIONS: ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Users don’t understand hydroponic farming and won’t use device Housing/Zoning/Food laws prevent the installation of the devices Concierge produce delivery significantly undercuts cost for end users Product degrades significantly after the first harvest Users frequently get their produce stolen from their allotted space Quality of produce is poor compared to local supermarkets Food trends shift toward more centralized or industrialized farming and
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distribution methods
POTENTIAL BUSINESS OBJECTIVES: ● ● ● ● ●
Break into the new market of automated community farming Acquire new users Increase active users Reduce first time user friction Contract with several large scale corporations
SKETCHES AND MODELS: Initial Concepts
FIGURE A7 • Simple sketch of Babylon case and shelf units (not to scale)
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Draft PTC Creo Drawing
FIGURE A8 • PTC Creo Annotated Draft of Babylon units
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