Climate Change and Hydrology in Central Asia

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CAMP4ASB Climate Adaptation&Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CEN TR AL AS IA

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Climate Change and Hydrology in Central Asia

A Survey of Selected River Basins

Climate Change and Hydrology in Central Asia: A Survey of Selected River Basins Š 2019, Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the source is made.

Acknowledgement: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB) sponsored by the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank has provided support for the process of developing methods, approaches, and tools for decision-making support and knowledge products on climate change in Central Asia.

Disclaimers: The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the partner organizations and governments.

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made.

This report is based on the research by the group of national experts: Alia Nurbatsina (Kazakhstan), Alexander Pak (Uzbekistan), and Vokhid Hamidov (Tajikistan) using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) for long-term and short-to-medium term river flow forecasts.

Scientific supervision of the national experts on hydrology modelling and SWIM application: Anastasia Lobanova and Iulii Didovets, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Management of the CAMP4ASB project in the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia: Iskandar Abdullaev (Executive Director), Irina Bekmirzaeva (Program Manager) Contributors: Atabek Umirbekov and Zhanna Babagalieva

Edited and produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, Geneva Cartography: Matt Beilstein Layout: Carolyne Daniel

Climate Change and Hydrology in Central Asia

A Survey of Selected River Basins

Introduction Selected river basins

RUSSIA

Bukthyrma River Esil River KAZAKHSTAN

UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN

Zeravshan KYRGYZSTAN River CHINA TAJIKISTAN

Kofarnihon River Murghab River

10

Esil and Zhabai

14

Bukhtarma

16

Zeravshan

18

Kofarnihon

20

Murghab

Representative of Central Asia’s flatland climate and hydrology systems, these rivers originate in the vast northern grasslands of Kazakhstan. Their average flow is modest, but spring floods can be significant and water flow can vary from year to year.

A powerful mountain river with sources in the Altai Mountains with whitewater rapids fed by glaciers and snow, the Bukhtarma’s scenic environment makes it a popular tourist destination.

With origins in glaciers in the Pamir-Alai Mountains of Tajikistan, the Zeravshan carries its waters to the ancient and densely populated areas of Samarkand and Bukhara, Uzbekistan, home to 6 million people.

Rising in the high snowy mountains of central Tajikistan, the Kofarnihon flows through highly contrasting climates from wet to dry and icy cold to desert hot, and boasts diverse water uses for irrigation, municipal needs and industries.

Originating in the dry highlands of central Afghanistan, the Murghab flows into Turkmenistan and ends at an ancient oasis. Agriculture is the predominant water user in the basin.

5

Water flow in the rivers of Central Asia is defined by a multitude of factors – climate, terrain and soil types, and weather extremes. This report highlights key research findings on five important river basins across Central Asia, and presents the visual material with short annotations for a lay readership.

Temperature, precipitation, the extent of permanent snow cover in the basin and the amount of water and snow (melt water equivalent), along with sun radiation and evaporation are the key meteorological factors that define the hydrological conditions. Soil and vegetation cover, slopes, and geological factors as well as human regulation and diversions of water flow play a great role in mitigating or exaggerating flood intensity and the water distribution across a basin. The Soil and Water Integrated Model, applied in this analysis allows representation of a river basin as a system. It simulates the hydrological, biogeochemical and vegetation processes, and integrates the anthropogenic impacts of water storage, irrigation and water withdrawals into the modelling framework.

The national hydrometeorological services of the Central Asian countries are producing weather forecasts for 5–7 days that are 80–90 per cent accurate. Producing seasonal weather outlooks is a more difficult task. Hydrological forecasts rely on weather forecasts, and users are mainly interested in longer-term seasonal predictions and flood peak warnings – a daunting task associated with a high degree of responsibility for human lives, crops, energy production, water regulation and infrastructure. Climate change projections are inherently

6

uncertain, since they depend on estimates of global greenhouse emissions, global atmospheric processes and climate models. Medium and high emission scenarios were used in these studies.

Flows in the Kofarnihon depend on the amount of snow in winter and the amount and intensity of rainfall in spring. Rising temperatures will melt snowpack earlier and add water management challenges.

None of the models can project precipitation amounts or type – rain or snow – with confidence for specific river basins, especially in the mountain areas. At the regional scale, however, the northern parts of Central Asia are expected to become somewhat wetter, while the southern parts become drier – a continuation of recently observed trends as monitored by the North Eurasian Climate Centre and portrayed in the recent national communications to UNFCCC. Mountain regions have their own climates, and may feature a mosaic of contrasting trends. All models show moderate-to-strong climate warming from 2°C to 6°C by the middle and end of this century, compared to the current climate.

The Zeravshan and Kofarnihon play vital roles in irrigation and crop cultivation in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Water management efficiency in agriculture can be improved starting from water intakes, pumps and canals, down to the field and plant level – through drip irrigation, improved leveling and crop selection. Many farmers are already using these adaptation approaches to conserve water and protect the soil. Others are harvesting rainwater and guarding against extreme weather and climate variability with greenhouses and protective plantings.

Authorities are improving coordination and preparedness measures, cleaning drainage systems and revising protections against flooding in the Esil and Bukhtarma.

The water flow projections were averaged for the periods up to 2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, and compared with the baseline of 1981–2010. Little or no significant changes in hydrology could be seen before 2040 in any of the river basins. Beyond this point, changes are likely and their significance will grow over time.

Of the rivers in this survey, the Murghab is the most vulnerable to climate change, and is likely to experience significant reductions in water flow in the coming decades. The implications for water security, especially among downstream agricultural users, are serious.

As temperatures rise more precipitation is likely to fall as rain instead of snow, and ice and snowpack are likely to decline due to less snow and higher temperatures.

These changes will affect river flows in terms of both timing and amount of discharges. The discharge graphs for the rivers show projections under two climate scenarios based on selected greenhouse gas emission pathways – moderate (RCP 4.5) vs. strong (RCP 8.5) warming.

Seasonal peaks of water flow are likely to shift to earlier in the year. Peak flow for the Esil River is likely to increase. Shrinking glaciers in the Bukhtarma and Zeravshan basins and faster snow melt in spring mean that less water will be available in summer – a troubling prospect in the densely populated middle and lower areas of the Zeravshan basin, which rely heavily on irrigation.

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Hydrology of rivers Climate change in the mountains of Central Asia and impacts on water resources

3 1 4

2

1

2

Seasonal shift in water availability

More pronounced inter-annual water fluctuations Climate cha ng e

Fut ure

Pre s e nt Ba s eline

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Present

M o nth s

3

With glaciers

Without glaciers

Fu tu re

Year s

4

Snow pack declining due to warmer temperatures

°C

mm

Seasonal g l a ci a l m e l t co ntr i b u ti o n

Pre se nt Glac ie r s cont r i b ute i m p o r ta nt par t of fl ow i n hot a n d d r y summ e r m onth s

Glac i er water sup p ly di m i nished Year s

5 0 - 7 0 years fro m now Le s s water sec ur it y i n h o t and dr y year s

R i ver fl ow declining due to i nc reased eva poration

Climate change in the northern steppes of Central Asia and impacts on water resources

Water

1

S n ow Ice Froze n so i l

2

Peak seasonal flow and flood

1

Pe a k fl ow i nc rease due to m o re p rec i p i t at io n and ra p i d s n ow m elt

Fu tu re

2

Flooding extent

Fu tu re Pres ent

Pre se nt J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Climate change in southern deserts and highlands of Central Asia and impacts on water resources

Significant reduction in flow Pres ent Flow dec rease due to less p rec i p i t at io n and higher tem p erat ures

Fu t u re J

F

M

A

M

J

J

M o nt hs ir r igation c an al

A

S

O

N

D

Esil and Zhabai Tobolsk

1168 (Irtysh)

Ust-Ishim

Irty sh

81

Tyumen Is h i m

55

The Esil starts as a typical small flatland river in Central Asia with an average flow of 4 m3 of water per second at Astana, the major city in the basin. Further downstream, the Zhabai sub-basin drains an area of 8,800 km2 and has an average flow of 8 m3 per second. Together the basins cover an area of 177,000 km2 and are the largest system in the survey. The model considered only 5,400 km2 of the Esil basin – upstream of Astana – but considered the full extent of the Zhabai basin.

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RUSSIA

After the Esil River passes Astana and is joined by Zhabai and other streams, its flow strengthens to as much as 40–50 m3 per second, doubling as it flows through Russia, where it changes its name to Ishim before joining the Irtysh River and draining into the Arctic Ocean.

The total length of the Esil is 2,450 km, and the river is mostly fed by spring snowmelt. The climate across the basin is continental with moderate rainfall and a temperature range of -40°C to +35°C. Near Astana, a canal spans 20 km to connect the Esil to the Nura River to supply the capital with additional water.

Ishim

Kurgan

Omsk

47

Petropavlovsk 54

Sergeyevka 59

Novoishimskoye

Kokshetau KAZAKHSTAN

27

Zhabai

1.4

Esil

Atbasar

Stepnogorsk 8

28

4

Derzhavinsk

Astana 4

3

N u ra

Lake Tengiz

Arkalyk

The snow melts faster than the river ice, and the frozen soil channels the melt water into the river. For the 2–3 weeks of the snowmelt period, the river discharges 1,000 m3 of water per second or more at Astana and 1,700 m3 per second downstream at Zhabai-Atbasar where the river level may rise by 6 metres causing significant damage to infrastructure and property. When the area experiences sudden warming, floods can develop rapidly, and can complicate the forecasts for the timing and scale of the event. Weekly hydrological forecasts, along with field measurements can provide some indication of imminent flooding, but extreme flooding remains difficult to predict.

Agriculture in the basin uses Esil River water for cattle and some irrigation, but most of the basin’s agriculture is rain-fed, and the main water uses are domestic and industrial. City water supplies are sufficient, but population growth comes with increased demand for water.

Karaganda 0

100 km

Overview River basin boundaries National boundaries 15

Average annual water flow per gauging station (m³/s)

10

Under both warming scenarios (moderate and strong) for 2041–2070, the monthly peak flow of the Esil River might be lower than current levels, but it will occur over two months – March and April – as opposed to the current peak in April. The peak seasonal flow of the Zhabai River is expected to be higher than the current flow. An overall increase in the discharge of the Zhabai River by the end of the century under both warming scenarios is projected, with particularly strong increase of the peak flow in April.

Tobolsk Ust-Ishim

Irty sh

Tyumen Is h i m

RUSSIA

Esil River: Projected changes in hydrology

Ishim

Average monthly water discharges, m3 per second

Kurgan

Omsk Petropavlovsk

Moderate warming 6 5 4

Sergeyevka

Esil

Stepnogorsk

Zhabai

Novoshimskoye

Kokshetau KAZAKHSTAN

Altbasar Derzhavinsk

2 1 0

5

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2071-2100

N u ra

3 2

Karaganda 0

present water flow

4

Lake Tengiz

Arkalyk

future water flow

3

6

Astana

flow decline

2041-2070

100 km

1 0

J

Projected climate change impacts on hydrology Increase in precipitation Water flow increase Increase in spring floods Shift in water peak to earlier dates Increase in temperature 11

F

M

Atbasar Balkashino

ba

i

Shantobe Z h a b a i

Zh

b a s i n

a

0

2 km x 13

Atbasar

ba

i

Zhuravlevka

Zh

a

Koluton Shortandy Zhaltyr

Esil

Es il

Astana

Flood risk River basin boundaries Flooding risk areas 0

Areas most affected by flood of April 2017

The population and the authorities alike are growing more concerned about the increasing scale of spring floods in the lower Zhabai River and in the middle reaches of the Esil. As the floods grow, the riverbank reinforcements cannot keep up with the power of the water. A massive green belt supported by engineering and flood water diversion structures now surrounds Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, to protect residents

50 km

from sweeping winter storms and spring floods. Smaller towns are also investing in increased flood protection.

Nevertheless, in April 2017 a dam at Atbasar ruptured and released a wave – amplified by wind and rain – that flooded more than 450 houses, displaced some 1,400 people and blocked roads. Modelling results show that such events may become more common and intense, if not routine in the future.

12

Zhabai River: Projected changes in hydrology Average monthly water discharges in m3 per second Moderate warming 75

50

Strong warming 75

uncertainty in climate models

2041-2070 flow increase

50

future 25 water flow

0 75

25

present flow J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

0

D

75

2071-2100

50

50

25

25

0

J

F

M

2041-2070

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

0

D

13

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2071-2100

J

F

M

Bukhtarma The glacier-fed Bukhtarma River originates in the Altai Mountains of eastern Kazakhstan, and flows from an elevation of 4,500 m down to 400 m at an average rate of 214 m3 of water per second – a powerful river famous for its clean water. The minimum recorded flow occurred in 2004 at 40 m3 of water per second, and the maximum recorded flow came in April 2015 at 2 700 m3 of water per second.

Under both warming scenarios (moderate and strong) for 2041–2070, the peak flows of the Bukhtarma River shift to earlier in the year, with strong increase in April (doubling compared to the current levels) and some reduction in May. For 2071–2100, the changing patterns of flow under the moderate warming scenario are similar in spring to the same scenario for the earlier period, but with a marked reduction in summer flow.

Agriculture in the basin is rain-fed and consists mostly of pastures for grazing. Some mining occurs in the basin, and small cities are scattered throughout. Hydropower plants operate on the Irtysh River in the cascade, but none are on Bukhtarma. The Bukhtarma’s whitewater rapids and its scenic environment makes it a popular tourist destination.

Under the strong warming scenario in 2071–2100 the peak flow comes one month earlier (April is becoming a month of the peak flow instead of May), while river flow in summer months may decline by 50–100 m3 of water per second.

KAZAKHSTAN

RUSSIA

210 45

Belukha

4506

Turgusun

Serebryansk Ir t y s h

Altai Mountains

650 (est.)

Altai

Berel glaciers: Glacier loss 15–20% in the past 50 years

1

River basin boundaries

17 26

108

Berel 25

6

a

Overview

rm hta B uk

Bukhtarma reservoir

Uryl

Ulken Naryn Katon-Karagay

CHINA

National boundaries 15

0

Average annual water flow per gauging station (m³/s)

14

50 km

Projected climate change impacts on hydrology KAZAKHSTAN

RUSSIA Altai Mountains

Belukha 4506

Turgusun

Serebryansk

Altai

Ir t y s h

rm hta B uk

Bukhtarma reservoir

Berel

a

Uryl

Ulken Naryn Katon-Karagay

CHINA

Increase in spring floods Decrease in summer flow

Increase in temperature

Shift in water peak to earlier dates

Glacier melting

0

50 km

Bukhtarma River: Projected changes in hydrology Average monthly water discharges in m3 per second 600 500

Moderate warming

300 200

uncertainty in climate models

2041-2070

500

flow increase

400

future water flow

600 500

F

M

A

M

J

J

200 100

A

S

O

N

0

D

600

2071-2100

500

400 300

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

O

N

D

2071-2100

400

present water flow

future water flow

300

200

200

100

100

0

2041-2070

300

present water flow peak flow shift to earlier dates

J

Strong warming

400

flow decline

100 0

600

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

0

D 15

present water flow

future water flow

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

Kofarnihon The Kofarnihon River starts at an elevation of about 3 000 m in the mountains of central Tajikistan, and falls to a low of 300 m. The upper reaches of the river basin receive 1 000 mm of precipitation per year and more.

The southern lower part of the basin is much hotter and drier, and gets virtually no snow. Some glaciers feed the river, but most of the flow comes from spring snowmelt.

The upper reaches are home to important Tajik industries, the densely populated Hissar Valley and the city of Dushanbe and to spas and resorts that take advantage of the scenic beauty, mineral waters and hot springs in the area.

Gaznok 4886

Ziddi Kalon Dagana

Varzob

44

12

Tursunzoda

Dushanbe 20

Hisor

95

43

Romit 46

Chinar

Vahdat Elok 7

Fayzobod

Total length of the river is 387 km with drainage area covering 11 000 km2. Average annual flow is 164 m3 of water per second, with flood peak discharges up to 1 200 m3 per second. Suddenly rising temperatures in the mountains and heavy rains – as much as 30 mm in less than a day – can trigger significant flooding.

Nurek Reservoir

Denov

UZBEKISTAN

Rogun

TAJIKISTAN

The Kofarnihon River is less dependent on glaciers for its water so the melting of glaciers will not affect it as much, but warming temperatures will result in higher river flows in the spring and lower flows in the summer. Population growth in the area puts more people and property in harm’s way, and new housing and agricultural cultivation along the river adds to the risk.

Bokhtar 162

Tartki

Under the moderate warming scenario for 2041–2070, the peak flow is similar to the current peak, but rises earlier in the year and declines more quickly after the peak.

Under the strong warming scenario for 2071–2100, the peak occurs markedly earlier and remains below the current peak. Significant flow reduction is possible in summer months.

Shahr-i Tuz

Ayvaj

AFGHANISTAN

0

50 km

Overview River basin boundaries National boundaries 15

Average annual water flow per gauging station (m³/s) Water diversions for irrigation and other uses

16

Kofarnihon River: Projected changes in hydrology Average monthly water discharges in m3 per second Moderate warming 300 250

Gaznok 4886

Varzob Tursunzoda

200

Ziddi Kalon

Vahdat

Romit

UZBEKISTAN

flow decline

future 100 water flow

Rogun

Fayzobod

0 300 250

TAJIKISTAN

present water flow peak flow shift to earlier dates

50

Nurek Reservoir

Denov

flow increase

150

Dushanbe Hisor

uncertainty in climate models

2041-2070

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2071-2100

200 150

Bokhtar

100 50 0

F

M

Strong warming

Shahr-i Tuz

300 250

Ayvaj

J

AFGHANISTAN

0

50 km

2041-2070

200 150

Projected climate change impacts on hydrology

100 50

Increase in spring floods

0

Shift in water peak to earlier dates

300

Decrease in precipitation

250

Glacier melting

200

More rapid snow melt

150

Increase in temperature

100

J

F

M

2071-2100

50

Population growth

0

Irrigated areas

17

J

F

M

and

Gulistan

Khujand

Kushrabad

40

Konibodom

Jizzakh

Navoiy

KYRGYZSTAN

UZBEKISTAN

Kattakurgan

Samarkand 65

Ravathodja dam

155

Istaravshan

Dupuli Panjakent Zeravshan Aini 7 7 Sujina Fandarya

Shahristan Pass 80 62

Piramidalny Peak

Mardushkat M atch a 40

Takfon Y 19 ag nob 34 Iskanderkul

Shahrisabz

Karshi

TAJIKISTAN

5509

Dekhavz Zeravshan Glacier Garm Navobod 0

Overview River basin boundaries

15

National boundaries

Average annual water flow per gauging station (m³/s) Water diversions for irrigation and other uses

Zeravshan The Zeravshan glacier is an important source of the Zeravshan River, which rises in the mountains of Tajikistan at an elevation of 2 800 m and flows down to Uzbekistan. The Zeravshan basin is home to 6 million people, and the river serves the ancient cities of Samarkand and Bukhara and provides irrigation for 0.5 million ha. In Tajikistan, the Zeravshan flows naturally through the mountains with few water withdrawals, but in Uzbekistan water demand is high and the available water is fully used. According to estimates of the Hydrometeorological Service of Tajikistan, the Zeravshan glacier has been retreating, and has already lost significant size. Rising temperatures may increase the climate risks to agriculture in the lower part of the basin in the densely populated Samarkand and Bukhara provinces.

and geological formations are indeed rich in gold, and this area hosts the largest gold mining enterprises in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The average annual precipitation in the Zeravshan basin – 500 mm – is unlikely to change much, but the mix is likely to have less snow and more rain. The current annual average temperature of the river basin of 5°C is expected to grow to 8°C under moderate warming and to 10-12°C under the strong warming scenario. This significant warming will shrink glaciers and reduce the snow and ice cover in the basin. The consequent reductions in the amount of melt water that reaches the river will result in a declining river flow. At the same time, disruptions in the hydrological cycle will increase both the variability of river flows and the frequency of potentially more destructive flood events in the mountain areas. In the lower reaches of the basin, cotton yields are highly likely to decline unless water saving technologies and other adaptation measures are introduced.

The Zeravshan drainage area is about 42 000 km2, and the river’s length is in excess of 800 km. The name of the river translates as “gold bearing”, and while little extractable gold remains in the main riverbed, its tributaries

18

Batken

50 km

Gulistan

Khujand

Kushrabad

Konibodom

Jizzakh

Navoiy

UZBEKISTAN

Kattakurgan

Istaravshan

Samarkand Zeravshan Aini Fandarya

Panjakent

Glacier melting Increase in temperature

Piramidalny Peak

Shahristan Pass

Ravathodja dam

Batken

KYRGYZSTAN

5509

Mardushkat M at c h a

Dekhavz Zeravshan Glacier

Yag nob

Shahrisabz

Garm

Iskanderkul

Population growth

Karshi

TAJIKISTAN

Risk of water shortage in low-water years

Navobod

Irrigated areas

0

50 km

Zeravshan River: Projected changes in hydrology Average monthly water discharges in m3 per second 500 400

Moderate warming flow decline

400

flow increase

300

200

peak flow shift to earlier dates

100 J

F

M

A

M

J

Navoi province

J

2071-2100

300

present water flow

future water flow

200

0

500

2041-2070

100 A

S

O

N

0

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Samarkand province Gulistan

Khujand

Kushrabad

Konibodom

Jizzakh

Navoiy Kattakurgan Bukhara province

Samarkand Ravathodja dam

Tajik Zeravshan basin

Istaravshan Shahristan Pass

Zeravshan Aini Fandarya

Panjakent

Mardushkat M at c h a

5509

Dekhavz

Garm

Iskanderkul

Karshi

TAJIKISTAN

Major industrial sites

Navobod 0

Population (1 figure = 100000 people)

Karshi

Piramidalny Peak

Yag nob

Shahrisabz

Population and industry

19

Batken

KYRGYZSTAN

UZBEKISTAN

50 km

Bayramaly

Mary

Tejen

Karakum Can al

40

River basin boundaries National boundaries

Turkmengala

15

Yoloten

Average annual water flow per gauging station (m³/s)

TURKMENISTAN

b rgha Mu 50

Tagtabazar

Mashhad

Serhetabat

han

r yso Ka

Murichaq

AFGHANISTAN

Ka s

IRAN

Kus hka

4

4161

Qala e Naw

Herat

0

Overview

Murghab The Murghab originates in the dry highlands of central Afghanistan at 2 600 m. The river flows north-west within Afghanistan and north in Turkmenistan, and stops at the ancient oasis of Merv, mingling its waters with those of the Karakum Canal. The total length of the river is 850 km (350 km in Turkmenistan), and the drainage area is 48 700 km².

Agriculture is the predominant water user in the basin. The major cropland areas occur in the downstream section of the river in Turkmenistan and along the traditional irrigation areas in the basin.

Under both climate scenarios for both the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, overall flows and peak flows decline dramatically in the Murghab. The peak flows also tend to shift to earlier in the year. Neither of the scenarios takes into account changes that may occur in water use patterns in the Afghan part of the river, but if Afghanistan pursues developments that require Murghab water, the flow in the Turkmenistan part of the river might decline even further.

The river is fed mainly by snow and rain in the upper catchment in Afghanistan, and has a mean annual discharge of about 50 m³ of water per second when it enters Turkmenistan. In Turkmenistan it receives some small rivers and streams, but in view of the predominantly hot and dry climate, these do not influence the scale of the flow.

20

50 km

Bayramaly

Mary

Tejen

Karakum Can al

Decrease in summer flow Decrease in precipitation

Turkmengala

Risk of water shortage in low-water years

Yoloten

Increase in temperature Population growth Irrigated areas

TURKMENISTAN b rgha Mu

Predicted flow reduction due to climate change

Tagtabazar

Serhetabat

AFGHANISTAN

Murichaq

Ka s

Mashhad

han

Kus hka

IRAN

r yso Ka

4161

Qala e Naw

Herat

0

50 km

Projected climate change impacts on hydrology

Murghab River: Projected changes in hydrology Average monthly water discharges in m3 per second Moderate warming 150 125

150

uncertainty in climate models

2041-2070

125

present water flow

100

100

flow decline

75

75 50

50

future water flow

25 0

2071-2100

J

F

M

A

M

J

25

J

A

S

O

N

0

D

21

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

References Central Asia Water Regional Research Network (CAWA): https://www.cawa-project.net Central Asia Water Regional Research Network (CAWA): https://www.cawa-project.net Dartmouth/University of Colorado flood observatory: https://floodobservatory.colorado.edu North Eurasian Climate Centre of RosHydromet. 2018. Review of the climate conditions and trends in the CIS region for the year 2017. Available at: http://seakc.meteoinfo.ru/climatemonitoring/climatmonitr National climate and hydrology databases of KazHydromet: https://kazhydromet.kz/ru National climate and hydrology databases of Tajik Hydromet: http://meteo.tj/ National climate and hydrology databases of UzHydromet: http://meteo.uz/ Global Runoff Data Center (river flow data): https://www.bafg.de/GRDC National communications and climate risks assessments: Kazakhstan’s Third-Sixth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

2013.

Tajikistan’s Third National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2014.

State Agency on Hydrometeorology under the Committee for Environmental Protection. The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Turkmenistan’s Third National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2014.

Uzbekistan’s Third National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2017.

Centre of Hydrometeorological Service.

OSCE. 2017. Climate Change and Security in Central Asia UNDP. 2015. Climate risk management profiles of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan UNDP. 2012. Integrated water resource management in the Zeravshan basin.

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Variations in selected geographic names Name used in the report Altai (town) in Kazakhstan Esil Gissar (mountains, valley) in Tajikistan Kafirnigan Murghab Zeravshan Zhabai

Variations and alternatives Zyranovsk Ishim Hissar, Hissor Kofarnikhon Murghob, Murgap, Margiana Zarafshan, Zerafshan, Matcha (upper part of the river) Zhabay

Many geographic and local names are pronounced and spelled differently depending on the international or local usage, historical and modern style and other peculiarities. Some cities have been renamed recently, but the older versions are often still used. This report maintains a consistent spelling of names, and the table offers some variations or alternatives of selected names used in the report.

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Contacts The Regional Coordination Unit for CAMP4ASB, Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (CAREC) 40 Orbita-1, Republic of Kazakhstan, A15D5B3 camp4asb@carececo.org +7 727 265 43 34 carececo.org ca-climate.org

TAJIKISTAN The National Coordination Unit for CAMP4ASB under the Committee for Environment Protection, Government of the Republic of Tajikistan 5/1 Shamsi, Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan, 7340346 camp4asb@gmail.ru +992 44 640 15 16 hifzitabiat.tj The National Coordination Unit for CAMP4ASB under the Ministry of Finance, Republic of Tajikistan 3 Ak. Radzhabovykh St., Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan camp4asb@greenfi nance.tj +992 93 533 00 15 www.camp4asb.tj

UZBEKISTAN The National Coordination Unit for CAMP4ASB under the Agency for for Rural Restructuring under the Ministry of Agriculture and Water of the Republic of Uzbekistan 39B Kary Niyaziy St., Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan, 100000 info@rra.uz +998 90 175 10 20 www.rra.uz Center of Hydrometeorological Service (Uzgidromet) 72 1st Proyezd Bodomzor Yuli, Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan, 100052 uzhymet@meteo.uz +998 71 234 23 41 www.meteo.uz