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4HE¬3WISS¬%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬#ONmICTS¬0ROJECT ¬STUDIED¬THE¬ CONDITIONS¬THAT¬ALLOW¬SOCIAL¬CONmICTS¬TO¬CROSS¬THE¬THRESHOLD¬ OF¬ VIOLENCE¬ AND¬ CONCLUDED¬ THAT¬ ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED¬ CONmICTS¬ RESULT¬ IN¬ VIOLENCE¬ ONLY¬ IF¬ AND¬ WHEN¬ SOME¬ OF¬ THE¬ FOLLOWING¬lVE¬KEY¬SITUATIONS¬COINCIDE s )NEVITABLE¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬CONDITIONS ¬'ROUP¬SURVIVAL¬IS¬ DEPENDENT¬ON¬DEGRADED¬RESOURCES¬FOR¬WHICH¬NO¬SUBSTI TUTES¬ARE¬APPARENT¬AND¬EVENTUALLY¬THE¬GROUP¬FACES¬AN¬INEVI TABLE¬AND¬THEREFORE¬DESPERATE¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬SITUATION s ,ACK¬ OF¬ REGULATORY¬ MECHANISMS¬ AND¬ POOR¬ STATE¬ PERFORMANCE ¬7HEN¬A¬POLITICAL¬SYSTEM¬IS¬INCAPABLE¬OF¬ PRODUCING¬CERTAIN¬SOCIAL¬AND¬POLITICAL¬CONDITIONS ¬IT¬BE COMES¬IMPOSSIBLE¬TO¬ACHIEVE¬GOALS¬SUCH¬AS¬SUSTAINABLE¬ USE¬OF¬RESOURCES ¬4HIS¬SHORTCOMING¬IS¬EITHER¬DUE¬TO¬A¬ LACK¬OF¬STATE¬OUTPUTS¬REGARDING¬RESOURCE¬MANAGEMENT¬ AND¬LIVELIHOOD¬SECURITY¬OR¬TO¬DISRUPTION¬OF¬SOCIAL¬INSTITU TIONS¬DESIGNED¬TO¬REGULATE¬ACCESS¬TO¬RESOURCES s )NSTRUMENTALISING¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT ¬$OMINANT¬PLAYERS¬ USE¬ OR¬ MANIPULATE¬ THE¬ ENVIRONMENT¬ TO¬ SERVE¬ SPECIlC¬ GROUP¬ INTERESTS ¬ MAKING¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬ DISCRIMINATION¬ AN¬ IDEOLOGICAL ¬ISSUE¬OF¬GROUP¬IDENTITY s /PPORTUNITIES¬ TO¬ BUILD¬ ORGANIZATIONS¬ AND¬ lND¬ AL LIES ¬0LAYERS¬ORGANIZE¬THEMSELVES¬ALONG¬POLITICAL¬LINES¬ n¬OFTEN¬BEHIND¬A¬STRONG¬LEADER¬n¬AND¬GAIN¬ALLIES¬EITHER¬ FROM¬GROUPS¬AFFECTED¬BY¬SIMILAR¬PROBLEMS ¬FROM¬CERTAIN¬ FRATERNIZING ¬FACTIONS¬OF¬THE¬ELITE ¬OR¬FROM¬FOREIGN¬GROUPS¬ SUCH¬AS¬)'/S s 3PILLOVER¬ FROM¬ A¬ HISTORIC¬ CONFLICT ¬ %NVIRONMENTAL¬ DISCRIMINATION¬OCCURS¬WITHIN¬THE¬CONTEXT¬OF¬AN¬EXISTING¬ HISTORIC ¬CONmICT¬STRUCTURE¬AND ¬AS¬A¬RESULT ¬THE¬CONmICT¬ RECEIVES¬NEW¬IMPETUS 3OURCE ¬AFTER¬"AECHLER ¬ ¬ ¬IN¬-ALTAIS¬ET¬AL ¬ 4HE¬3WISS¬RESEARCH¬TEAM¬ALSO¬FOUND¬THAT¬VIOLENT¬CONmICTS¬ THAT¬ARE¬PARTLY¬CAUSED¬BY¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬DEGRADATION¬ARE¬ MORE¬LIKELY¬TO¬OCCUR¬IN¬MARGINAL¬VULNERABLE¬AREAS ¬TYPICALLY¬ ARID¬ PLAINS ¬ MOUNTAIN¬ AREAS¬ WITH¬ HIGHLAND LOWLAND¬ INTER ACTIONS ¬ AND¬ TRANSNATIONAL¬ RIVER¬ BASINS¬ "AECHLER ¬ ¬ -OREOVER ¬ENVIRONMENTALLY¬INDUCED¬CONmICTS¬ARE¬MORE¬LIKELY¬ TO¬HAPPEN¬AT¬INTRA STATE¬RATHER¬THAN¬INTERSTATE¬LEVEL ¬

!FTER¬ LOOKING¬ AT¬ THE¬ CONDITIONS¬ THAT¬ MAKE¬ VIOLENT ¬ ENVI RONMENTALLY INDUCED¬ CONmICT¬ POSSIBLE ¬ AND¬ CONSIDERING¬ WHICH¬REGIONS¬ARE¬STRUCTURALLY¬MORE¬VULNERABLE¬TO¬CONmICT ¬ ATTENTION¬MUST¬FOCUS¬ON¬THE¬PATTERNS¬OF¬CAUSATION¬BEHIND¬ VIOLENT¬CONmICT ¬

2ESEARCH¬CARRIED¬OUT¬IN¬3WITZERLAND¬AND¬#ANADA ¬NOTED¬THAT¬ THE¬TYPICAL¬CAUSAL¬PATHWAY¬TO¬CONmICT¬INVOLVES ¬ s $EPENDENCY¬ON¬NATURAL¬CAPITAL s %NVIRONMENTAL¬SCARCITY¬ARISING¬EITHER¬WHEN¬THE¬QUALITY¬ AND¬QUANTITY¬OF¬RENEWABLE¬RESOURCES¬DECREASES¬ SUPPLY INDUCED¬SCARCITY ¬THE¬POPULATION¬INCREASES¬ DEMAND IN DUCED¬SCARCITY ¬AND OR¬WHEN¬RESOURCE¬ACCESS¬BECOMES¬ MORE¬UNEQUAL¬ STRUCTURAL¬SCARCITY ¬ (OMER $IXON ¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENTAL¬SCARCITY ¬IN¬TURN ¬CAN¬PRODUCE¬lVE¬TYPES¬OF¬ SOCIAL¬EFFECTS ¬CONSTRAINED¬AGRICULTURAL¬PRODUCTIVITY ¬CON STRAINED¬ ECONOMIC¬ PRODUCTIVITY ¬ MIGRATION¬ OF¬ AFFECTED¬ PEOPLE ¬GREATER¬SEGMENTATION¬OF¬SOCIETY ¬USUALLY¬ALONG¬ EXISTING¬ETHNIC¬CLEAVAGES ¬AND¬DISRUPTION¬OF¬INSTITUTIONS ¬ ESPECIALLY¬THE¬STATE¬ IN¬-ARAIS¬ET¬AL ¬ ¬ s %NVIRONMENTAL¬DISCRIMINATION¬IN¬TERMS¬OF¬UNEQUAL¬AC CESS¬TO¬NATURAL¬RESOURCES ¬IS¬A¬KEY¬MECHANISM¬SINCE¬IT¬ CAUSES¬MARGINALIZATION¬OF¬A¬GROUP ¬WHICH¬IN¬TURN¬STIMU LATES¬POPULATION¬MOVEMENT¬ "AECHLER ¬ ¬ ¬$EG RADATION¬OF¬RENEWABLE¬RESOURCES¬AND¬POPULATION¬GROWTH¬ THAT¬CAUSE¬UNEQUAL¬ACCESS¬TO¬RESOURCES¬MAY¬LEAD¬TO¬A¬ SITUATION¬OF¬RESOURCE¬CAPTURE¬IN¬WHICH¬ELITES¬GAIN¬CONTROL¬ OVER¬SCARCE¬RESOURCES ¬4HIS¬PHENOMENON¬IS¬OFTEN¬RELATED¬ TO¬A¬MODERNIZATION¬AND¬DEVELOPMENT¬PROCESS¬WITH¬UN EVEN¬DISTRIBUTIVE¬IMPLICATIONS¬ "AECHLER ¬ ¬ s %COLOGICAL¬ MARGINALIZATION¬ WHEN¬ UNEQUAL¬ RESOURCE¬ ACCESS¬AND¬POPULATION¬GROWTH¬COMBINE¬TO¬DRIVE¬FURTHER¬ DEGRADATION¬OF¬RENEWABLE¬RESOURCES &AILING¬TO¬MEET¬THE¬CHALLENGES¬RELATED¬TO¬THE¬RAPID¬NEGATIVE¬ CHANGES¬ASSOCIATED¬WITH¬LIVELIHOOD¬LOSSES¬CAN¬FUEL¬CONmICTS¬ AT¬COMMUNITY¬LEVEL¬AND¬CREATE¬AN¬OPPORTUNITY¬FOR¬POLITICAL¬ FORCES¬TO¬BUILD¬ON¬THE¬GRIEVANCES¬OF¬SOCIETY¬AND¬MOBILIZE¬ POPULAR¬SUPPORT¬WHICH¬MAY¬UNDER¬CERTAIN¬CONDITIONS¬BE COME¬VIOLENT ¬-ORE¬SPECIlCALLY ¬UNSCRUPULOUS¬LEADERS¬WILL¬ GENERALLY¬lND¬IT¬EASIER¬TO¬MOBILIZE¬PEOPLE¬WHO¬HAVE¬SUFFERED¬ A¬ SUDDEN¬ DROP¬ IN¬ EXPECTATIONS ¬ DUE¬ TO¬ THE¬ LOSS¬ OF¬ THEIR¬ FAMILY S¬ LIVELIHOOD ¬ AND¬ MUST¬ ACCEPT¬ A¬ MUCH¬ MORE¬ LOWLY¬ SITUATION¬IN¬SOCIETY¬THAN¬THEY¬THOUGHT¬THEY¬DESERVED

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