Environment risk assessment in the event of accident on the main pipelines of Belarus

Environment risk assessment in the event of accident on the main pipelines of Belarus In the framework of the implementation of the international project “Environmental safety of gas and oil pipelines in Belarus" within the Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC), an assessment has been done of potential environmental risks in the event of accidents on the main pipelines in Belarus. The project was implemented by ZoĂŻ Environment Network (Geneva, Switzerland) with participation of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and in cooperation with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and funded by the government of Sweden.

The results in the current report follow up on and supplement the work done by colleagues of the Chair of pipeline transport, water supply and hydraulics of Polotsk State University under the guidance of Professor V. K. Lipsky. In September 2015, these specialists

presented the survey titled “Environmental safety of main pipelines in Belarus".1 The survey contains information and analysis on the legislation and regulations of Belarus in pipeline transport, and a comparison of this legal framework with the main principles of “Safety Guidelines and Good Practices for Pipelines” as developed by UNECE in 2008; data on accidents and violations at main pipeline facilities in Belarus; a general description of the activities of public authorities to ensure the safety of the main pipeline transport; and recommendations on improving the legal framework and practices in the main transport, considering, among other things, "Safety Guidelines and Good Practices for Pipelines" and other international practices. The survey also contains a generalized map of environmental safety levels of the main pipelines, but does not include an in-depth analysis of potential environmental risk in the event of accident on the pipelines in Belarus.

Therefore, as a follow-up and complement to this work, the assessment includes the ranking and mapping of hazards to the environment (water bodies and land) in the event of accident on the main pipelines of Belarus.

This report considers the main oil product pipelines crossing the territory of the Republic of Belarus.

To assess the potential degree of environmental risk posed by accidents on the main pipelines, the following tasks have been accomplished:    

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Raster cartographic materials of the territory under investigation (in Belarus) at a 1:100 000 scale General assessment of maximum amount of pollutants following previous accidents on the main pipelines in Belarus Analysis of potential ways of spreading pollution by oil products across water bodies and land depending on the accident location Features of hydrological regime of water bodies that can be affected by potential pollution with the calculation of water consumption and average speed of flows for the most unfavorable (conservative) case of low water content in which the adverse impact of contamination by oil products in water bodies would have maximum values Mathematical models of water body areas along the potential pathways for spreading oil products, including those for transboundary sections of water flows, and calculations of the following: o Mean and maximum concentrations of oil products

1Survey titled “Environmental safety of main pipelines in Belarus": V.K. Lipsky, A.N. Voronin, A.G. Kulbei, L.M. Spiridyonok (Polotsk State University); with participation of Christina Stuhlberger, Lesya Nikolayeva, Nickolai Denisov, Wolter Reinhard, Andreas Haskamp and others (Zoï Environment Network, Geneva, Switzerland). – Polotsk: Republic of Belarus, 2015, 105 p.

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o Flow time along water courses and time intervals of bulk flow of oil products o Estimated weight of oil products at the beginning and end of areas and other features o Approximate mean thickness of oil product layers on each area of a water body where the oil product spreads o Potential impact on the water supply and intakes, including identification of specific water users Analysis of transboundary environmental risk Assessment of general features of biodiversity on specially protected natural areas in the potential risk zone, as well as water bodies of these protected areas that are at risk of contamination by oil products Cartographic materials that contain risk assessment visualizations for water bodies and land of the Republic of Belarus in the event of accidents on the main pipelines, including: o A sketch map that contains an overall risk assessment of environmental pollution and potential transboundary impacts o Index maps of pollution risk assessments for administrative districts of Belarus (20 maps) o Index maps of pollution risk assessments for water bodies in Belarus along potential pathways for contamination (251 maps) Overall assessment of the Emergency Ministry of the Republic of Belarus resources necessary for prompt response to potential emergencies linked to accidents on the main pipelines

Conclusions about the potentially most significant hazards to environment safety include: Accidents on the main oil pipeline "Surgut - Polotsk" may result in pollution of the Drissa, Zapadnaya Dvina, Marinets, Shepernya, Cherneyka, Dohnarka, Zvanitsa, Volynka rivers, and Lake Yakovskoye. Adverse effects may be seen in water intakes for housing and communal services and in other water users of the cities of Vitebsk, Polotsk, and Verhnedvinsk on the Zapadnaya Dvina River.

Accidents on the Druzhba main oil pipeline “Unecha – Kostyukovichi – Gorki- Senno- Polotsk – Skrudaliena” may result in pollution of the Zubar, Besed’, Sozh, Dnieper, Zhadun’ka, Ol’shanka, Pol’na, Borovka, Dobrost’, Zhukovka, Mertvitsa, Chernaya Natopa, Volches, Sorochinka, Koshanka, Pronya, Verbovka, Zernya, Derna, Golubika, Basya, Milovka, Limna, Kamenka, Chernitsa, Klyuchnikovka, Sokolyanka, Adrov, Dernovka, Obolyanka, Luchesa, Zapadnaya Dvina, Subbota, Polonka, Nemoityanka, Brus, Krivinka, Svechanka, and Hotinka rivers, and of Kulikovskoye, Sukremenskoye, Tukhinskoye, Bogdanovskoye, Svechanksoye, Polozerie, Zhenno, and Usveya lakes. Adverse effects may occur on the territory of the

hydrological republican reserve "Krivoye”, the landscape republican reserve "Yel’nya" and "Braslavskiye Lakes" National Park.

Furthermore, accidents may adversely impact water bodies located in the biological local reserve "Vetkovsky", the republican wetland reserve "Floodplain of River Sozh", the biological local reserve "Strumensky", the landscape local reserve "Cherikovsky", the landscape republican reserve "Staritsa", the biological local reserve "Chechersky", and the landscape republican reserve "Smytchok."

Adverse effects may be seen in the water intake of housing and communal services and in other water users located in the floodplains of the Sozh, Dnieper, Zapadnaya Dvina, Sokolyanka, Ushacha, Disna, and Druika rivers.

In the event of accidents on main pipeline “Unecha – Mozyr’ – Brody” (Russia-Belarus-Ukraine), the Horoput’, Iput’, Sozh, Dnieper, Krupka, Zhgun’, Vedrich, Vit’, Turya, Zakovanka, Solokucha, Mytva, Mlynok, Dobrynochka, Slovechna, and Pripyat’ rivers may be polluted. Adverse effects may be felt in the landscape republican reserve "Strelsky" and in water bodies located in the biological republican reserve "Dnieper-Sozh", the landscape republican reserve "Strelsky", and the “Polesye” state radiation-ecological reserve.

Adverse effects may occur on the intakes of the municipal utilities and other water users located in floodplains of the Iput’, Sozh, Pripyat’, Vit’, and Zakovanka rivers.

Accidents on Druzhba main oil pipelines “Mosyr’ – Adamovo” (Belarus-Poland) may result in pollution of the Mytva, Tur, Pripyat’, Krapivnaya, Skolodina, Ubort’, Svinovod, Stviga, Gorin’, Rubelskaya, Vetlitsa, Styr’, Pina, Yasel’da, Filippovka, Struga, Neslukha, Samoruvka, Strymnya, Mukhavets, Zapadny Bug, Mlynok, Shevnya, Palahva, Zhabinka, Gradovka, Lesnay, Pul’va, and Koterka rivers; the Dnieper-Bug Canal (DBK), and the canals of Lyakhovichsky, Volovetsky, Dyatlovichsky, and Demidovsky. Adverse effects may be seen in the landscape republican reserve "Mozyrskiye ovragi," "Pripyat’" National Park, the landscape republican reserve "Srednyy Pripyat’", the biological republican reserve "Tyrvovichi", the hydrological local reserve "Yel’", the biological local reserve "Trostyanitsa", the landscape local reserve "Vorokhovo", and the biological local reserve "Dolbnevo". Accidents may also adversely impact water bodies located in the wetland regional reserve "Ales", "Pripyat’" National Park, the biological local reserve "Turovsky lug", the landscape republican reserve "Srednyy Pripyat’", the landscape republican reserve "Mozyrskiye ovragi”, the landscape republican reserve "Strel’sky", the hydrological local reserve "Yel’, the landscape regional reserve "Bugsky", the biological regional reserve "Brestky", and the biological regional reserve "Nepokoychitsy".

Negative effects may occur on the intakes of the municipal utilities and other water users located in the floodplains of the Pripyat’, Tur,

Gorin’, Pina, Yasyel’da, Filippovka, Neslukha, Mukhavets, Zhabinka, Gradovka, Lesnya, and Pul’va rivers and on DBK. The Dnieper and Prypiat’ basins in Ukraine and the Zapadnaya Dvina River basin in Latvia may experience the maximum adverse transboundary impacts, while impacts in the Zapadny Bug River basin in Poland are expected to be smaller, and in the Besed’ River basin in the Russian Federation, they are expected to be insignificant.

The vast majority of administrative areas have sufficient manpower and resources to respond effectively to pipeline accidents and emergencies in their jurisdictions. In nine districts, certain accident scenarios would require manpower and resources from other areas.

In addition, areas such as Braslavsky and Kostyukovichsky may require cooperation with neighbouring countries (Lithuania and Poland), and such areas – including the Kamenetz district – may need to take precautions.

All results are presented in cartographic form (an interactive map) available at: http://www.zoinet.org/web/oil-pipelines Work was carried out in cooperation with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Protection of the Republic of Belarus and the Republican Centre for management of and response to emergencies with the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus. This cooperation included discussions of intermediate and final results and their transfer to these agencies and organizations.

The report was prepared by Vladimir Korneyev, Konstantin Titov, Alexander Tchaikovsky and Alexei Andreyenko.

The authors extend their gratitude to Lesya Nikolayeva and Nickolai Denisov (Zoï Environment Network, Geneva, Switzerland) for their help and support in organizing and performing the work, for useful comments and suggestions, and for editing the report.