Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse - August 2018

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DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

TM

Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q2 2018*

+5.2%

+16.2%

OVERALL SALES

+7.6% NECESSITIES

OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND

+7.0% DISCRETIONARY

+9.1% HOUSEHOLD GOODS

+11.9% ECOMMERCE

+6.4% ENTERTAINMENT

*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)

TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| August 2018

TOTAL RETAIL SPEND IN DUBLIN OUTPERFORMS THOSE NATIONALLY TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)

117

120

+5.2% YoY

115

115

+4.5% YoY

110 105

DUBLIN

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

95

Q1 14

100

IRELAND

Consumer spending in the Dublin economy registered in excess of 5% YoY growth in the first two quarters of 2018. Overall expenditure increased by 5.2% YoY and by 1.3% QoQ in Q2 2018. Total sales in Dublin are now 17.1% higher than Q1 2014 levels, reflecting a strong upward trend in a strengthening Dublin Economy.

Overall the retail environment in Ireland remains solid with 4.5% growth for retail sales across the country. Dublin‘s performance was particularly strong at a 5.2% increase over Q2 2017. On the tourism side, some of the most exciting growth in tourism spend is coming from the U.S and China.

The only area of struggling growth is from the UK, with negative growth continuing into 2018.

Nationally (including Dublin), growth in total sales were not as strong as in Dublin but continue to maintain a strong upward trend in Q2 2018 with YoY growth of 4.5%. On a quarterly basis, expenditure nationally (including Dublin) registered growth of 1.2%. At both a national and Dublin level, both YoY and QoQ growth rates in Q2 2018 were at their strongest levels since the series began in Q1 2014.

Michael McNamara

GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD

DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)

+5.19%

117.1

+1.3%

YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE

QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

Q2 2018

100 = Q1 2014

QOQ

METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.

2

TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

SPENDINGPULSE: SELECTED SUB-SECTORS

METHOD: ECOMMERCE

171

180

+11.9% YoY

170

Dublin Consumer Spending in Q2 2018 was positively influenced by growth in each of the four main sectors covered in the Mastercard SpendingPulse. Each category of spending registered in excess of 5% YoY growth in the quarter. Expenditure via eCommerce increased by 11.9% YoY, the lowest YoY increase since Q1 2017.

160 150

154

140

+14.1% YoY

130 120 110

Growth in the sale of household goods was particularly high at 9.0% nationally (including Dublin) and 9.1% in Dublin, signifying continued confidence and willingness by consumers to spend on significant household items. Nationally, retail sales via eCommerce were equally strong at 14.1% however the overall level continues to be eclipsed by that observed in Dublin.

100

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

90

IRELAND

| August 2018

DUBLIN

Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.

RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY 125

RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES 125

120 +7.0% YoY

120

120

+7.6% YoY

120

115

115

116

+3.4% YoY

110

IRELAND

112

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

DUBLIN

Grocery: all food and beverage stores.

RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS

RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT

137

140

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

+2.5% YoY

Q1 14

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

95

Q1 15

95 Q4 14

100

Q3 14

100

Q2 14

105

Q1 14

105

Q2 14

110

149

160

+6.4% YoY

+9.1% YoY

150

130

140

128 +3.2%

120

142

130

YoY

+9.0% YoY

120

110

110 100

100

IRELAND

DUBLIN

3

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

DUBLIN

Household furniture, electronics and hardware.

Hotels, restaurants and bars.

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

IRELAND

Q2 14

90

90

TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| August 2018

TOURISM RETAIL SPEND INDEX: US AND FRENCH MARKETS CONTINUE TO DRIVE GROWTH Tourist expenditure in the Dublin economy grew by 16.2% YoY in Q2 2018. Growth in the quarter was predominantly driven by growth in the US market of 16.8% and 15.2% in the French market (seasonally adjusted) With YoY growth in the Chinese market of 14.1% this marks the second quarter of positive growth YoY growth following seven consecutive quarters of negative YoY growth. Meanwhile, the UK market is the only market of the five included in the analysis that recorded a negative YoY growth rate in Q2 2018. This represents the fifth quarter in a row where negative YoY growth has been recorded. Notably, the rate of decline is also increasing, both YoY and QoQ. For example, in Q2 2018 spending by UK tourists fell 4.7% YoY and 1.6% QoQ compared to Q2 2017 when spending dropped 0.6% both YoY and QoQ. This is in spite of a recovery the number of UK tourists traveling to Ireland in the year to May 2018, up approximately 7% (Fรกilte Ireland).

Similar trends are observed nationally (including Dublin) though the rate of decline in spending by UK tourists is lower than that recorded in Dublin. Following no growth in Q3 2017, there have been two consecutive quarters of negative YoY growth nationally (including Dublin) in UK tourist spending. Similarly, on a quarterly basis, the rate of expenditure by UK tourists has been on the decline since Q3 2017.

Overall, growth of 11% YoY in tourist spending was recorded nationally (including Dublin) in Q2 2018, slightly lower than in Dublin. The US and French markets are the key drivers of this growth, growing at 15.5% and 18.4% respectively. Both the German and Chinese markets continue to perform well with two consecutive quarters of double digit YoY growth. In the Chinese market tourism spending grew 4.4% QoQ in Q2 2018 representing a slowdown from the 10.1% QoQ growth recorded in Q1 2018.

DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q2 2018 (SA) OVERALL

+11.0% +16.2%

-1.3% -4.7%

+15.5% +16.8%

+15.3% +4.8%

+18.4% +15.2%

+12.6% +14.1%

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

Q1 2014 = 100

200

190

190

180

180

158.2

170

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)

Q1 2014 = 100

200

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

171.0

170

160

160

150

150

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110 100

100 All

UK

USA

Germany

France

All

China

UK

USA

Germany

France

Q2 2015

Q2 2016

Q2 2015

Q2 2016

Q2 2017

Q2 2018

Q2 2017

Q2 2018

4

China