A u g u st 2 0 1 8
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
TM
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q2 2018*
+5.2%
+16.2%
OVERALL SALES
+7.6% NECESSITIES
OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND
+7.0% DISCRETIONARY
+9.1% HOUSEHOLD GOODS
+11.9% ECOMMERCE
+6.4% ENTERTAINMENT
*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| August 2018
TOTAL RETAIL SPEND IN DUBLIN OUTPERFORMS THOSE NATIONALLY TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)
117
120
+5.2% YoY
115
115
+4.5% YoY
110 105
DUBLIN
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
95
Q1 14
100
IRELAND
Consumer spending in the Dublin economy registered in excess of 5% YoY growth in the first two quarters of 2018. Overall expenditure increased by 5.2% YoY and by 1.3% QoQ in Q2 2018. Total sales in Dublin are now 17.1% higher than Q1 2014 levels, reflecting a strong upward trend in a strengthening Dublin Economy.
Overall the retail environment in Ireland remains solid with 4.5% growth for retail sales across the country. Dublin‘s performance was particularly strong at a 5.2% increase over Q2 2017. On the tourism side, some of the most exciting growth in tourism spend is coming from the U.S and China. The only area of struggling growth is from the UK, with negative growth continuing into 2018.
Nationally (including Dublin), growth in total sales were not as strong as in Dublin but continue to maintain a strong upward trend in Q2 2018 with YoY growth of 4.5%. On a quarterly basis, expenditure nationally (including Dublin) registered growth of 1.2%. At both a national and Dublin level, both YoY and QoQ growth rates in Q2 2018 were at their strongest levels since the series began in Q1 2014.
Michael McNamara
GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
+5.19%
117.1
+1.3%
YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE
QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
Q2 2018
100 = Q1 2014
QOQ
METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
2
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
SPENDINGPULSE: SELECTED SUB-SECTORS
METHOD: ECOMMERCE
171
180
+11.9% YoY
170
Dublin Consumer Spending in Q2 2018 was positively influenced by growth in each of the four main sectors covered in the Mastercard SpendingPulse. Each category of spending registered in excess of 5% YoY growth in the quarter. Expenditure via eCommerce increased by 11.9% YoY, the lowest YoY increase since Q1 2017.
160 150
154
140
+14.1% YoY
130 120 110
Growth in the sale of household goods was particularly high at 9.0% nationally (including Dublin) and 9.1% in Dublin, signifying continued confidence and willingness by consumers to spend on significant household items. Nationally, retail sales via eCommerce were equally strong at 14.1% however the overall level continues to be eclipsed by that observed in Dublin.
100
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
90
IRELAND
| August 2018
DUBLIN
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY 125
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES 125
120 +7.0% YoY
120
120
+7.6% YoY
120
115
115
116
+3.4% YoY
110
IRELAND
112
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT
137
140
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
+2.5% YoY
Q1 14
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
95
Q1 15
95 Q4 14
100
Q3 14
100
Q2 14
105
Q1 14
105
Q2 14
110
149
160
+6.4% YoY
+9.1% YoY
150
130
140
128 +3.2%
120
142
130
YoY
+9.0% YoY
120
110
110 100
100
IRELAND
DUBLIN
3
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
DUBLIN
Household furniture, electronics and hardware.
Hotels, restaurants and bars.
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
IRELAND
Q2 14
90
90
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| August 2018
TOURISM RETAIL SPEND INDEX: US AND FRENCH MARKETS CONTINUE TO DRIVE GROWTH Tourist expenditure in the Dublin economy grew by 16.2% YoY in Q2 2018. Growth in the quarter was predominantly driven by growth in the US market of 16.8% and 15.2% in the French market (seasonally adjusted) With YoY growth in the Chinese market of 14.1% this marks the second quarter of positive growth YoY growth following seven consecutive quarters of negative YoY growth. Meanwhile, the UK market is the only market of the five included in the analysis that recorded a negative YoY growth rate in Q2 2018. This represents the fifth quarter in a row where negative YoY growth has been recorded. Notably, the rate of decline is also increasing, both YoY and QoQ. For example, in Q2 2018 spending by UK tourists fell 4.7% YoY and 1.6% QoQ compared to Q2 2017 when spending dropped 0.6% both YoY and QoQ. This is in spite of a recovery the number of UK tourists traveling to Ireland in the year to May 2018, up approximately 7% (Fรกilte Ireland).
Similar trends are observed nationally (including Dublin) though the rate of decline in spending by UK tourists is lower than that recorded in Dublin. Following no growth in Q3 2017, there have been two consecutive quarters of negative YoY growth nationally (including Dublin) in UK tourist spending. Similarly, on a quarterly basis, the rate of expenditure by UK tourists has been on the decline since Q3 2017. Overall, growth of 11% YoY in tourist spending was recorded nationally (including Dublin) in Q2 2018, slightly lower than in Dublin. The US and French markets are the key drivers of this growth, growing at 15.5% and 18.4% respectively. Both the German and Chinese markets continue to perform well with two consecutive quarters of double digit YoY growth. In the Chinese market tourism spending grew 4.4% QoQ in Q2 2018 representing a slowdown from the 10.1% QoQ growth recorded in Q1 2018.
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q2 2018 (SA) OVERALL
+11.0% +16.2%
-1.3% -4.7%
+15.5% +16.8%
+15.3% +4.8%
+18.4% +15.2%
+12.6% +14.1%
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
Q1 2014 = 100
200
190
190
180
180
158.2
170
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)
Q1 2014 = 100
200
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
171.0
170
160
160
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110 100
100 All
UK
USA
Germany
France
All
China
UK
USA
Germany
France
Q2 2015
Q2 2016
Q2 2015
Q2 2016
Q2 2017
Q2 2018
Q2 2017
Q2 2018
4
China