SpendingPulse - AUGUST 2019

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DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

TM

Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q2 2019*

+4.5%

+8.7%

OVERALL SALES

+4.7% NECESSITIES

OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND

+1.3% DISCRETIONARY

+5.4% HOUSEHOLD GOODS

+8.7% ECOMMERCE

-2.2% ENTERTAINMENT

*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)

TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| August 2019

HOUSEHOLD GOODS AND NECESSITIES SUPPORT SOLID OVERALL RETAIL SALES GROWTH TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA) 125

130

+4.5% YoY

125 120

121

115

+4.2% YoY

110 105

DUBLIN

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

95

Q1 14

100

IRELAND

Consumer spending in the Dublin economy grew by 4.5% (SA*) YoY in the second quarter of 2019. Growth in retail spend in Dublin continues to exceed the National (incl.

Dublin) level, which recorded a YoY increase of 4.2%.

Overall there was solid growth in retail sales in Q2 2019. Difficult growth comparisons with 2018 likely limited the growth rates in certain discretionary and entertainment sectors. While tourist spending from Europe slowed, spending by tourists from the United States continue to show impressive double digit growth rates supporting continued growth.

In relation to quarterly changes, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019. This comes on foot of 0% QoQ growth recorded in the first quarter of the year. Nationally, QoQ growth in retail has remained relatively steady at 1% for each of the past three quarters.

Michael McNamara

GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD

DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)

+4.5%

124.6

+2.1%

YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE

QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

Q2 2019

100 = Q1 2014

Q2 2019

METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.

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*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM

TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

METHOD: ECOMMERCE

SPENDINGPULSE: SELECTED SUBSECTORS

185

200

+8.7% YoY

190

| August 2019

180 170 160

168

150

+7.3% YoY

140 130 120 110 100

IRELAND

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

90

DUBLIN

In Q2 2019 Dublin consumer spending growth was positively influenced by YoY increase in Necessities (+4.7%), Discretionary (+1.3%) and Household Goods (+5.4%) spending. However, spending on Entertainment fell by 2.2% YoY, after a particularly strong Q1 2019 where growth of 10.8% was recorded. Dublin eCommerce sales growth remains robust, with an increase of 8.7% YoY. At a National (incl. Dublin) level, growth was driven by an increase in all four consumption headings covered in the SpendingPulse.

There was slight growth recorded in Entertainment, of 0.3% YoY, at a National level though the rate of growth is declining and, on quarterly basis, expenditure on retail has fallen in each of the past two quarters.

Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.

RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY

120

115

115

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.

DUBLIN

Grocery: all food and beverage stores.

RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS

RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT 170

157

170

140 -2.2% YoY

150

140

140

130

130

Hotels, restaurants and bars.

*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q1 14

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

90

Q3 14

90 Q2 14

100

Q1 14

100

Q4 15

110

Q3 15

110

120

Q2 15

YoY

Q1 15

120

+5.7% YoY

Q4 14

134 +0.3%

149

Q3 14

150

+5.4% YoY

160

Q2 14

160

IRELAND

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

+4.8% YoY

Q1 14

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

95

Q1 15

95

Q4 14

100

Q3 14

100

Q2 14

105

Q1 14

105

IRELAND

117

110

Q3 14

117

+1.6% YoY

Q2 19

120

110

+4.7% YoY

125

Q1 19

+1.3% YoY

125

123

130

Q4 18

122

Q2 14

130

RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES

DUBLIN

Household furniture, electronics and hardware.

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TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| August 2019

BREXIT AMONGST THE UNCERTAINTIES IMPACTING SPENDING DECISIONS OF BRITISH AND GERMAN TOURISTS Total tourism spend in Dublin registered YoY growth of 8.7%* in Q2 2019, although the rate of growth has slowed somewhat since Q1 2019, when it reached 13.1%. Dublin growth was positively influenced by an increase in spending from American (+12.8% YoY) and Chinese (+10.0% YoY) tourists. Post Brexit it is crucial that Irish tourism diversifies more broadly than the core markets and Fáilte Ireland have begun holding “China Ready” workshops recognising the growing tourism market that China represents.

The decrease in UK tourist spend in Dublin of 2.6% YoY, is likely to be influenced by the ongoing Brexit uncertainty and exchange rate volatility. Aside from the threat posed by Brexit, the sector may also be negatively impacted from the rise in VAT

which will contribute to increased business costs, and also issues surrounding insurance with Leisure Insure recently withdrawing from the Irish market.

From a National perspective, 6.7% YoY growth was registered in Q2 2019. The reduction in UK tourist spending was more significant at a national level, at -5.3%. There was also a reduction in spending by German tourists (-5.3% YoY). The Irish Tourism Industry Confederation (ITIC) has reported that this is due to increasing Brexit uncertainty, particularly around the Northern Ireland border, with German tourists adopting a “wait-andsee” approach before booking any Irish trips. According to ITIC, German tourists are the highest spending market in Europe with every German visitor spending just under €600 each in Ireland.

DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q2 2019 (SA) OVERALL

+6.7% +8.7%

-5.6% -2.6%

+13.1% +12.8%

-5.3% -0.3%

+6.9% +5.6%

+7.6% +10.0%

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

IRELAND

IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA) Q1 2014 = 100

260

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

DUBLIN

DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA) Q1 2014 = 100

230 220

240

210 200

220

180.1

190 200

180

168.2

180

170 160 150

160

140 140

130 120

120

110 100

100 All

4

UK

USA

Germany

France

China

All

UK

USA

Germany

France

Q2 2016

Q2 2017

Q2 2016

Q2 2017

Q2 2018

Q2 2019

Q2 2018

Q2 2019

China

*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM