A u g u st 2 0 1 9
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
TM
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q2 2019*
+4.5%
+8.7%
OVERALL SALES
+4.7% NECESSITIES
OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND
+1.3% DISCRETIONARY
+5.4% HOUSEHOLD GOODS
+8.7% ECOMMERCE
-2.2% ENTERTAINMENT
*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| August 2019
HOUSEHOLD GOODS AND NECESSITIES SUPPORT SOLID OVERALL RETAIL SALES GROWTH TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA) 125
130
+4.5% YoY
125 120
121
115
+4.2% YoY
110 105
DUBLIN
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
95
Q1 14
100
IRELAND
Consumer spending in the Dublin economy grew by 4.5% (SA*) YoY in the second quarter of 2019. Growth in retail spend in Dublin continues to exceed the National (incl. Dublin) level, which recorded a YoY increase of 4.2%.
Overall there was solid growth in retail sales in Q2 2019. Difficult growth comparisons with 2018 likely limited the growth rates in certain discretionary and entertainment sectors. While tourist spending from Europe slowed, spending by tourists from the United States continue to show impressive double digit growth rates supporting continued growth.
In relation to quarterly changes, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019. This comes on foot of 0% QoQ growth recorded in the first quarter of the year. Nationally, QoQ growth in retail has remained relatively steady at 1% for each of the past three quarters.
Michael McNamara
GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
+4.5%
124.6
+2.1%
YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE
QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
Q2 2019
100 = Q1 2014
Q2 2019
METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
2
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
METHOD: ECOMMERCE
SPENDINGPULSE: SELECTED SUBSECTORS
185
200
+8.7% YoY
190
| August 2019
180 170 160
168
150
+7.3% YoY
140 130 120 110 100
IRELAND
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
90
DUBLIN
In Q2 2019 Dublin consumer spending growth was positively influenced by YoY increase in Necessities (+4.7%), Discretionary (+1.3%) and Household Goods (+5.4%) spending. However, spending on Entertainment fell by 2.2% YoY, after a particularly strong Q1 2019 where growth of 10.8% was recorded. Dublin eCommerce sales growth remains robust, with an increase of 8.7% YoY. At a National (incl. Dublin) level, growth was driven by an increase in all four consumption headings covered in the SpendingPulse. There was slight growth recorded in Entertainment, of 0.3% YoY, at a National level though the rate of growth is declining and, on quarterly basis, expenditure on retail has fallen in each of the past two quarters.
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY
120
115
115
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT 170
157
170
140 -2.2% YoY
150
140
140
130
130
Hotels, restaurants and bars.
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q1 14
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
90
Q3 14
90 Q2 14
100
Q1 14
100
Q4 15
110
Q3 15
110
120
Q2 15
YoY
Q1 15
120
+5.7% YoY
Q4 14
134 +0.3%
149
Q3 14
150
+5.4% YoY
160
Q2 14
160
IRELAND
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
+4.8% YoY
Q1 14
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
95
Q1 15
95
Q4 14
100
Q3 14
100
Q2 14
105
Q1 14
105
IRELAND
117
110
Q3 14
117
+1.6% YoY
Q2 19
120
110
+4.7% YoY
125
Q1 19
+1.3% YoY
125
123
130
Q4 18
122
Q2 14
130
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES
DUBLIN
Household furniture, electronics and hardware.
3
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| August 2019
BREXIT AMONGST THE UNCERTAINTIES IMPACTING SPENDING DECISIONS OF BRITISH AND GERMAN TOURISTS Total tourism spend in Dublin registered YoY growth of 8.7%* in Q2 2019, although the rate of growth has slowed somewhat since Q1 2019, when it reached 13.1%. Dublin growth was positively influenced by an increase in spending from American (+12.8% YoY) and Chinese (+10.0% YoY) tourists. Post Brexit it is crucial that Irish tourism diversifies more broadly than the core markets and Fáilte Ireland have begun holding “China Ready” workshops recognising the growing tourism market that China represents. The decrease in UK tourist spend in Dublin of 2.6% YoY, is likely to be influenced by the ongoing Brexit uncertainty and exchange rate volatility. Aside from the threat posed by Brexit, the sector may also be negatively impacted from the rise in VAT
which will contribute to increased business costs, and also issues surrounding insurance with Leisure Insure recently withdrawing from the Irish market. From a National perspective, 6.7% YoY growth was registered in Q2 2019. The reduction in UK tourist spending was more significant at a national level, at -5.3%. There was also a reduction in spending by German tourists (-5.3% YoY). The Irish Tourism Industry Confederation (ITIC) has reported that this is due to increasing Brexit uncertainty, particularly around the Northern Ireland border, with German tourists adopting a “wait-andsee” approach before booking any Irish trips. According to ITIC, German tourists are the highest spending market in Europe with every German visitor spending just under €600 each in Ireland.
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q2 2019 (SA) OVERALL
+6.7% +8.7%
-5.6% -2.6%
+13.1% +12.8%
-5.3% -0.3%
+6.9% +5.6%
+7.6% +10.0%
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
IRELAND
IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA) Q1 2014 = 100
260
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
DUBLIN
DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA) Q1 2014 = 100
230 220
240
210 200
220
180.1
190 200
180
168.2
180
170 160 150
160
140 140
130 120
120
110 100
100 All
4
UK
USA
Germany
France
China
All
UK
USA
Germany
France
Q2 2016
Q2 2017
Q2 2016
Q2 2017
Q2 2018
Q2 2019
Q2 2018
Q2 2019
China
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM