Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse - February 2018

F E B R UA RY 2 0 1 8

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

TM

Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q4 2017*

+6.1%

+5.9%

OVERALL SALES

+5.3% NECESSITIES

OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND

+3.9% DISCRETIONARY

+7.7% HOUSEHOLD GOODS

+17.6%

-0.8% ENTERTAINMENT

*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)

ECOMMERCE

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DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| February 2018

TOTAL RETAIL SPEND IN DUBLIN GATHERS PACE IN Q4 TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA) 120

116

115

114

110 105

DUBLIN

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

95

Q1 14

100

IRELAND

Overall sales increased by 2.1% QoQ and 6.1% YoY as the sales index for the Capital reached 115.8 (2014 = 100). Retail sales has now increased QoQ in all bar two of the past 15 quarters. and this is likely a reflection of the improving economic and labour market conditions in Dublin.

Retail sales finished the year on a steady footing. While Black Friday cannibalised Christmas sales, overall the last quarter of the year posted a strong growth rate.

The fundamentals of the Irish economy are strong with robustness in both output and labour market, and this will support the retail sector in 2018.

The Sales index for Ireland as whole also maintained an upward trajectory in Q4 2017, but growth was marginally more subdued at 1% QoQ and 4.2% YoY. This would suggest that expenditure growth in Dublin was considerably stronger than across the rest of Ireland in the quarter. Nonetheless total Irish retail spending has increased on a consistent basis over the past four years, with QoQ growth recorded in every quarter since the series began in 2014.

Michael McNamara

GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD

DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)

+6.1%

116

+2.1%

YOY GROWTH DUBLIN RETAIL

DUBLIN RETAIL INDEX VALUE

QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

Q4 2017

Q1 2014 = 100

QOQ

METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.

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DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

SPENDINGPULSE: SELECTED SUB- SECTORS

METHOD: ECOMMERCE

166

165

The YoY expansion in Dublin Retail Sales over Q4 2017 was positively influenced by expenditure growth in three of the four main sectors of the Dublin economy covered in the Mastercard SpendingPulse. Robust YoY growth also occurred across the categories of necessities, discretionary and household goods.

The increase in household goods expenditure is particularly noteworthy as it signals a confidence and willingness amongst Dublin consumers to spend on big ticket items. Entertainment was the sole category to record a YoY decline. Spending in the sector dipped by 1.2% QoQ and 0.8% YoY and continues a trend of slowing growth in spending in the sector over the past two years.

155 145

148

125 115 105

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q4 17

eCommerce spending continued to increase at the strongest rate with an expansion of over 17% YoY in the quarter. The sector has recorded an aggregate increase in spending by Dublin consumers of over 66% since the series began in 2014.

DUBLIN

Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.

RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY 120

RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES 120

116

115

115

115

114

110

IRELAND

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

111

Q1 14

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

95 Q1 15

95 Q4 14

100

Q3 14

100

Q2 14

105

Q1 14

105

Q2 14

110

Q4 17

IRELAND

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

95

Q3 17

135

Q2 17

175

| February 2018

DUBLIN

Grocery: all food and beverage stores.

RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT

RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS

128

135

140

145 140

130

135

125

130

120

124

115

134

125 120 115

110

110

105

105

100

100

IRELAND

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Hotels, restaurants and bars.

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

95 Q1 14

95

DUBLIN

Household furniture, electronics and hardware.

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DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| February 2018

TOURISM RETAIL SPEND INDEX: STRONG PERFORMANCE OVER 2017 DRIVEN BY GROWTH IN US TOURISM SPEND Retail spending by tourists in Dublin grew by close to 6% YoY in Q4 2017. This increase was primarily driven by the US market where expenditure rose by 4.6% QoQ and 16% YoY. The US market is of vital importance to the Dublin tourist economy, and this was underlined in Q4 2017 by declining expenditure levels YoY in the UK, French, German and Chinese feeder markets. In relative terms, the decline in spending was most pronounced in the Chinese market where spending dipped by 14.3% YoY.

Trends in tourism spending were slightly different at the national level in Q4 2017, with total expenditure increasing at a more robust rate of 8.8% YoY. The US market was also pivotal with growth of 17.5% YoY, while increased expenditure was also recorded from the German and Chinese markets. Spending by UK tourists across the country fell, but at a rate of 1.4% YoY which was slower than the decline seen in Dublin. This has been a consistent trend in recent quarters, and suggests that city breaks to Dublin may have suffered more adverse effects from the weakening in the UK market relative to the rest of the Irish tourism market.

This was the sixth consecutive quarter in which spending fell YoY amongst Chinese visitors. The UK market, which accounts for a large proportion of visitors to the Capital, also recorded a substantial decline in expenditure of 7% YoY. This may be a reflection of the ongoing economic uncertainty in the UK coupled with the depreciation of sterling, which will have made trips to Ireland relatively more expensive in recent times.

Fáilte Ireland estimates that the US market was the largest source of tourism revenue for Ireland in 2016 (latest available) as it accounted for spending of €1.17bn, arising from 1.29m tourist visits to the country. The UK (excluding Northern Ireland) was the second largest market at €1.11bn (3.6m tourists)

DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q4 2017 (SA)

-1%

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

-7%

+18% +16%

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

-7%

-2%

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

+0.5% -14%

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

-3%

+2%

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

IRELAND

IRELAND TOURISM SPEND VALUE INDEX (SA)

DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND VALUE INDEX (SA)

Q1 2014 = 100

220

Q1 2014 = 100

210

210

200

200

190

190

180

180

170

170

150.7

160

DUBLIN

150.5

160 150

150

140

140 130

130

120

120

110

110

100 All

UK

USA

Germany

France

100

China

All

UK

USA

Germany

France

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

China

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