Ma y 2 0 1 8
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
TM
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q1 2018*
+4.8%
+9%
OVERALL SALES
+5.1% NECESSITIES
OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND
+4.1% DISCRETIONARY
+10.9% HOUSEHOLD GOODS
+14.9% ECOMMERCE
+2.3% ENTERTAINMENT
*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| May 2018
TOTAL RETAIL SPEND IN DUBLIN CONTINUES ON UPWARD TREND TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA) 116
120
+4.8% YoY
115
116
+5.2% YoY
110 105
DUBLIN
Q4 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
95
Q1 14
100
IRELAND
Consumer spending in the Dublin economy moderated slightly in the first quarter of 2018. Overall expenditure increased by 4.8% YoY and by 0.3% QoQ in Q1 2018. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter in which QoQ growth has been positive and continues to reflect the strengthening Dublin economy.
Both Ireland and Dublin saw increases in retail sales growth in Q1 2018. Dublin’s 4.8% growth rate was impressive with virtually all areas growing including Entertainment turning from a negative growth in Q4 2017 to positive growth in Q1 2018. The eCommerce channel had a mild deceleration in year-over-year growth, though still showed impressive growth in the mid-teens, in both Dublin and across Ireland.
Nationally, the sales index has maintained a strong upward trend in Q1 2018 growth in QoQ growth of 1.5%. Expenditure in Ireland (including Dublin) registered growth of 5.2% YoY in the first quarter and represents the strongest YoY growth since the series began in Q1 2014. Indeed total Irish consumer spending has increased on a consistent basis over the past four years and the results from the most recent quarter indicate that this trend is continuing.
Michael McNamara
GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
+4.8%
115.8
+0.3%
YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE
QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
Q1 2018
QOQ
METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
2
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
SPENDINGPULSE: SELECTED SUB- SECTORS
168
+14.9% YoY
160
The YoY expansion in Dublin consumer spending in Q1 2018 was positively influenced by expenditure growth in each of the four main sectors covered in the Mastercard SpendingPulse.
150
151
+13.4% YoY
Robust growth occurred in the category of household goods, with just under 11% YoY growth. Following YoY growth of 8.3% at the end of 2017 this continues to signify an increase in consumer confidence and willingness by Dublin consumers to spend on significant household items.Entertainment, which had registered YoY growth of 1.4% in Q4 2017 expanded further in the first quarter of 2018 with YoY growth of 1.4%.
120 110 100
IRELAND
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
90
Expenditure in eCommerce increased by a further 14.9% YoY following growth of 16.2% in Q4 2017. Retail sales in eCommerce in the Dublin region are far in excess of that observed at a national level
DUBLIN
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES
116
120
116
120
+4.1% YoY 115
+5.1% YoY
115
115
110
+5.0% YoY
112
IRELAND
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
+5.0% YoY
Q1 14
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
95
Q1 15
95 Q4 14
100
Q3 14
100
Q2 14
105
Q1 14
105
Q2 14
110
Q1 18
130
Q4 17
140
Q3 17
METHOD: ECOMMERCE 170
| May 2018
DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT
RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS
131
+2.3% YoY
135
160
130
147
+10.9% YoY
150
125
140
127
120
+2.6% YoY
115
130
138
+10.1% YoY
120
110
IRELAND
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Hotels, restaurants and bars.
DUBLIN
Household furniture, electronics and hardware.
3
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
90 Q3 14
95 Q2 14
100
Q1 14
100
Q2 14
110
105
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| May 2018
TOURISM RETAIL SPEND INDEX: FRENCH, US AND CHINESE DRIVE GROWTH IN TOURISM SPEND In Dublin, spending by tourists from the main overseas tourist markets grew by 9% YoY in Q1 2018. Strong YoY growth rates, in excess of 10% in the US and Chinese markets, and 20% in the French market, have all contributed to the boost tourism spending. Quarterly growth rates in these markets have been equally strong with the Chinese market, in particular, registering just over 20% QoQ growth in Q1 (seasonally adjusted).
fifth consecutive quarter in which expenditure by UK tourists in Dublin has fallen. At a national level tourism expenditure remains slightly more robust than that observed in the Capital with 9.5% YoY growth recorded in Q1 2018. As observed in the Capital, tourism expenditure from the French market was a key driver of growth at a national level, registering 18% YoY growth in the first quarter of 2018. Notable boosts were recorded in both the German and Chinese markets over the same period with YoY growth rates in Q1 2018 of 11.7% and 12.4% respectively – compared to growth rates of 1% and 3.4% in the final quarter of 2017. Spending by UK tourists across the country improved in Q1 2018, increasing by 1.8% YoY. This follows on from negative YoY growth rates recorded in each of the four quarters of 2017 and may indicate that Dublin has suffered more adversely from the weakening of sterling.
This marks a notable boost in spending from the Chinese market since the final quarter of 2017 when an 11% QoQ decline was recorded. The UK market, which accounts for a large proportion of visitors to the Capital (55% of all passengers arriving into Dublin Airport in September 2017 were from Britain, a decline of 1.3% YoY), recorded a further decline in expenditure of just over 4% YoY. With the depreciation of sterling in recent years, trips to Dublin by UK tourists have become relatively more expensive. The YoY decline observed in Q1 2018 marks the
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q1 2018 (SA) OVERALL
+9.5% +9%
+1.8% -4.2%
+14.7% +16.4%
+11.7% +3.5%
+18% +20.4%
+12.4% +12.3%
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
IRELAND TOURISM SPEND VALUE INDEX (SA)
190
180
180
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100 UK
151.5
160
150
All
USA
Germany
France
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
Q1 2014 = 100
170
151.7
160
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
200
190
170
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND VALUE INDEX (SA)
Q1 2014 = 100
200
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
100
China
All
UK
USA
Germany
France
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
4
China