Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse - May 2018

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DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

TM

Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q1 2018*

+4.8%

+9%

OVERALL SALES

+5.1% NECESSITIES

OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND

+4.1% DISCRETIONARY

+10.9% HOUSEHOLD GOODS

+14.9% ECOMMERCE

+2.3% ENTERTAINMENT

*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)

TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| May 2018

TOTAL RETAIL SPEND IN DUBLIN CONTINUES ON UPWARD TREND TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA) 116

120

+4.8% YoY

115

116

+5.2% YoY

110 105

DUBLIN

Q4 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

95

Q1 14

100

IRELAND

Consumer spending in the Dublin economy moderated slightly in the first quarter of 2018. Overall expenditure increased by 4.8% YoY and by 0.3% QoQ in Q1 2018. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter in which QoQ growth has been positive and continues to reflect the strengthening Dublin economy.

Both Ireland and Dublin saw increases in retail sales growth in Q1 2018. Dublin’s 4.8% growth rate was impressive with virtually all areas growing including Entertainment turning from a negative growth in Q4 2017 to positive growth in Q1 2018. The eCommerce channel had a mild deceleration in year-over-year growth, though still showed impressive growth in the mid-teens, in both Dublin and across Ireland.

Nationally, the sales index has maintained a strong upward trend in Q1 2018 growth in QoQ growth of 1.5%. Expenditure in Ireland (including Dublin) registered growth of 5.2% YoY in the first quarter and represents the strongest YoY growth since the series began in Q1 2014. Indeed total Irish consumer spending has increased on a consistent basis over the past four years and the results from the most recent quarter indicate that this trend is continuing.

Michael McNamara

GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD

DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)

+4.8%

115.8

+0.3%

YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE

QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

Q1 2018

QOQ

METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.

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TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

SPENDINGPULSE: SELECTED SUB- SECTORS

168

+14.9% YoY

160

The YoY expansion in Dublin consumer spending in Q1 2018 was positively influenced by expenditure growth in each of the four main sectors covered in the Mastercard SpendingPulse.

150

151

+13.4% YoY

Robust growth occurred in the category of household goods, with just under 11% YoY growth. Following YoY growth of 8.3% at the end of 2017 this continues to signify an increase in consumer confidence and willingness by Dublin consumers to spend on significant household items.Entertainment, which had registered YoY growth of 1.4% in Q4 2017 expanded further in the first quarter of 2018 with YoY growth of 1.4%.

120 110 100

IRELAND

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

90

Expenditure in eCommerce increased by a further 14.9% YoY following growth of 16.2% in Q4 2017. Retail sales in eCommerce in the Dublin region are far in excess of that observed at a national level

DUBLIN

Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.

RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY

RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES

116

120

116

120

+4.1% YoY 115

+5.1% YoY

115

115

110

+5.0% YoY

112

IRELAND

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

+5.0% YoY

Q1 14

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

95

Q1 15

95 Q4 14

100

Q3 14

100

Q2 14

105

Q1 14

105

Q2 14

110

Q1 18

130

Q4 17

140

Q3 17

METHOD: ECOMMERCE 170

| May 2018

DUBLIN

Grocery: all food and beverage stores.

RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT

RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS

131

+2.3% YoY

135

160

130

147

+10.9% YoY

150

125

140

127

120

+2.6% YoY

115

130

138

+10.1% YoY

120

110

IRELAND

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Hotels, restaurants and bars.

DUBLIN

Household furniture, electronics and hardware.

3

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

90 Q3 14

95 Q2 14

100

Q1 14

100

Q2 14

110

105

TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| May 2018

TOURISM RETAIL SPEND INDEX: FRENCH, US AND CHINESE DRIVE GROWTH IN TOURISM SPEND In Dublin, spending by tourists from the main overseas tourist markets grew by 9% YoY in Q1 2018. Strong YoY growth rates, in excess of 10% in the US and Chinese markets, and 20% in the French market, have all contributed to the boost tourism spending. Quarterly growth rates in these markets have been equally strong with the Chinese market, in particular, registering just over 20% QoQ growth in Q1 (seasonally adjusted).

fifth consecutive quarter in which expenditure by UK tourists in Dublin has fallen.

At a national level tourism expenditure remains slightly more robust than that observed in the Capital with 9.5% YoY growth recorded in Q1 2018. As observed in the Capital, tourism expenditure from the French market was a key driver of growth at a national level, registering 18% YoY growth in the first quarter of 2018. Notable boosts were recorded in both the German and Chinese markets over the same period with YoY growth rates in Q1 2018 of 11.7% and 12.4% respectively – compared to growth rates of 1% and 3.4% in the final quarter of 2017. Spending by UK tourists across the country improved in Q1 2018, increasing by 1.8% YoY. This follows on from negative YoY growth rates recorded in each of the four quarters of 2017 and may indicate that Dublin has suffered more adversely from the weakening of sterling.

This marks a notable boost in spending from the Chinese market since the final quarter of 2017 when an 11% QoQ decline was recorded. The UK market, which accounts for a large proportion of visitors to the Capital (55% of all passengers arriving into Dublin Airport in September 2017 were from Britain, a decline of 1.3% YoY), recorded a further decline in expenditure of just over 4% YoY. With the depreciation of sterling in recent years, trips to Dublin by UK tourists have become relatively more expensive. The YoY decline observed in Q1 2018 marks the

DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q1 2018 (SA) OVERALL

+9.5% +9%

+1.8% -4.2%

+14.7% +16.4%

+11.7% +3.5%

+18% +20.4%

+12.4% +12.3%

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

IRELAND TOURISM SPEND VALUE INDEX (SA)

190

180

180

150

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100 UK

151.5

160

150

All

USA

Germany

France

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

Q1 2014 = 100

170

151.7

160

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

200

190

170

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND VALUE INDEX (SA)

Q1 2014 = 100

200

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

100

China

All

UK

USA

Germany

France

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q1 2017

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

Q1 2018

4

China