SpendingPulse - MAY 2019

Ma y 2 0 1 9

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

TM

Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q1 2019*

+4.3%

+15.1%

OVERALL SALES

+4.1% NECESSITIES

OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND

+3.4% DISCRETIONARY

+6.9% HOUSEHOLD GOODS

+9.7% ECOMMERCE

+12.0% ENTERTAINMENT

*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)

TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| May 2019

TOTAL DUBLIN CONSUMER SPENDING GROWTH EASES MODESTLY IN Q1 TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA) 130

122

+4.3% YoY

125 120

119

115

+3.7% YoY

110 105

DUBLIN

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

95

Q1 14

100

IRELAND

Both Ireland and Dublin experienced a mild deceleration in retail sales growth rates in Q1 2019. For Ireland, sales slowed from 4.2% YoY (SA) in Q4 2018 to 3.7% YoY (SA) in Q1 2019. Dublin sales growth slowed from 6.9% YoY (SA) in Q4 2018 to 4.3% YoY (SA) in Q1 2019. While retail spending in Dublin increased YoY, on a quarterly basis there was no change recorded. This may be linked to lower than normal quarterly growth rates in Necessities (0.1% QoQ, SA) and Discretionary Sales (0.2% QoQ, SA).

Tourist spending remained robust in Q1 growing by 15.1% vs Q1 2018. While UK tourism spending was weak (-5% YoY) spending from virtually all the other major regions we track saw accelerations in spending growth.

One interesting area is tourism spending from China where Q1 2019 growth was almost 19% vs Q1 2018.

This contrasts with many reports of falling Chinese tourism spending in the USA in recent months. Outside the UK, tourism spending has very positive momentum heading in to the high Spring and Summer season.

Tourism spending grew by 15.1% YoY in Q1 with weakness in UK spending being offset by strong trends from other major regions.

Michael McNamara

GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD

DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)

+4.3%

121.9

+0%

YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE

QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

Q1 2019

100 = Q1 2014

Q1 2019

METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.

2

TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

METHOD: ECOMMERCE

STRONG GROWTH IN ENTERTAINMENT CONTINUES TO DRIVE OVERALL SPEND

178

190

+9.7% YoY

180 170

172

160

+14.1% YoY

150

| May 2019

140

On an annual basis, Dublin consumer spending in Q1 2019 was positively influenced by all four consumption types covered in the SpendingPulse. The strongest growth came from Entertainment with 12.0% growth YoY (SA). This is the third consecutive quarter of double digit growth in Entertainment spending in Dublin. Nationally, consumer spending increased by 3.7% YoY (SA), driven by similarly strong growth in Entertainment. Online sales in Dublin rebounded to 9.7% YoY (SA) in Q1 2019 following growth of 2.7% (SA) in Q4 2018.

130 120 110 100

IRELAND

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

90

DUBLIN

Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.

RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY

RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES

124

130

121

125

+4.1% YoY

+3.4% YoY

125

120

120

115

115

116

+2.1% YoY

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS

151

157

160

+12% YoY

150

DUBLIN

Grocery: all food and beverage stores.

RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT 160

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

95

Q4 14

95

Q3 14

100

Q2 14

100

Q1 14

+3.3% YoY

105

105

IRELAND

116

110

Q2 14

110

+6.9% YoY

150

140

140

141

IRELAND

DUBLIN

3

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

DUBLIN

Household furniture, electronics and hardware.

Hotels, restaurants and bars.

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q1 14

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

90 Q4 14

90 Q3 14

100

Q2 14

100

Q1 14

110

Q4 14

120

110

IRELAND

+1.4% YoY

Q3 14

120

144

130

+10.9% YoY

Q2 14

130

TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| May 2019

REDUCED UK TOURIST SPENDING OFFSET BY NOTABLE GROWTH FROM CHINESE & GERMAN MARKETS For the fifth consecutive quarter tourism spend in Dublin has registered YoY growth in excess of 10%. Growth in Dublin in Q1 2019, of 15.1% (SA), was largely driven by the Chinese and German markets, registering growth of 18.8% (SA) and 18.5% (SA) respectively. The US (14.9% YoY) and French (16.2% YoY) markets also contributed strongly to overall tourism spend in Dublin.

uncertainty created by Brexit, as well as the knock on effects on exchange rates and affordability perceptions of the Capital may all be feeding into this trend.

Nationally (incl. Dublin), growth of 3.5% YoY (SA) in tourism spend by the UK market was recorded in the first quarter of the year. Indeed, the data suggests that the UK market may be choosing to spend their money outside of the Capital. Quarterly, UK tourism spend rose by 2.3% (SA), the highest rate of quarterly growth since Q2 2016. Overall, tourism spend Nationally came in at 12.9% YoY in Q1 2019. The German market was the strongest contributor to the National performance, registering 15.6% YoY (SA) growth in Q1.

Following three quarters of positive YoY growth in UK tourism spend in Dublin, at the end of 2018 it appears now that market has taken a negative turn at the start of 2019. In Q1 2019, tourism spend by the UK market fell by 5% YoY (SA). This downward trend is more evident on a quarterly basis with the market registering negative QoQ growth since Q2 2018. The

DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q1 2019 (SA) OVERALL

+12.9% +15.1%

+3.5% -5.0%

+14.2% +14.9%

+15.6% +18.5%

+11.6% +16.2%

+13% +18.8%

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)

Q1 2014 = 100

Q1 2014 = 100

200

200

190

190

180

180

160

150

150

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100

All

UK

158.2

170

154.1

160

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

DUBLIN

IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)

170

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

USA

Germany

France

100

China

All

UK

USA

Germany

France

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q4 2015

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q1 2018

Q4 2017

Q4 2018

4

China