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DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
TM
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q1 2020*
+4.3%
+1.0%
OVERALL SALES
+5.1% NECESSITIES
OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND
-5.1% DISCRETIONARY
+9.6% HOUSEHOLD GOODS
+10.7% ECOMMERCE
-5.7% ENTERTAINMENT
*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| May 2020
COVID-19 IMPACTS Q1 DUBLIN RETAIL SPENDING TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)
127
+4.3% YoY
130 125 120
122 +3.1% YoY
115 110 105 100
DUBLIN
Retail spending in the Dublin economy registered the first signs of COVID-19 restrictions, despite the overall 4.3% YoY (SA*) increase recorded in Q1 2020. Significant increases in spending on necessities offset sharp declines in discretionary spending, with the full impact of the health crisis set to hit the economy in Q2 2020. Growth in Dublin continued to exceed that at a National level in Q1 (+3.1% YoY), in line with the trend throughout 2019.
Q1 20
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
95
IRELAND
Mirroring patterns seen internationally, spending on essentials at the end of Q1 contrasted sharply with declines in discretionary expenditure. Stockpiling Necessities and Household Goods ahead of restrictions helped offset the largest YoY contraction in Entertainment expenditure since 2014.
On a quarterly basis, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 0.8% QoQ in Q1 2020. This marks an acceleration following QoQ growth of 0.5% in Q4 2019. Nationally, quarterly growth remained steady (+0.8% QoQ) in Q1 following +0.9% QoQ in Q4 2019. On a headline basis, the Irish consumer appears to be in rude health, but the rise in Q1 was temporarily boosted by stockpiling of necessities, while the impact of widespread job and income losses will not be fully felt until Q2 2020.
Meanwhile, online sales have gained momentum, a trend that looks set to continue. Michael McNamara
GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
+4.3%
127.2
+0.8%
YoY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE
QoQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
Q1 2020
100 = Q1 2014
Q1 2020
METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
2
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY 130
125
117
120
-5.1% YoY
115
110
112
-4.0% YoY
105
Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
100
IRELAND
DUBLIN
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
HUGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN NECESSITY AND DISCRETIONARY SPENDING The most striking out-turn in the Q1 data was the divergence in necessity and discretionary spending. A sharp YoY decline was recorded in retail spending on discretionary goods in both Dublin (-5.1%) and Nationally (-4%), as shops closed, and travel restrictions were introduced in March 2020. In contrast, necessities spending increased sharply in both Dublin (+5.1%) and nationally (+4.4%). Household goods sales grew by 9.6% YoY in Dublin and 5.4% YoY nationally but spending on entertainment plummeted in both Dublin (-5.7%) and nationally (-5%). Online sales accelerated in both Dublin (+10.7% YoY) and nationally (+9.7% YoY) in Q1 2020 as the closure of physical shops saw customers move online.
METHOD: ECOMMERCE 220
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES
204
210
+10.7% YoY
200
| May 2020
130
128
+5.1% YoY
125
190 180
120
170
189
160
+9.7% YoY
150 140
120
115
+4.4% YoY 110
130 120
105
110
IRELAND
100 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
100
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT
RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS 190
170 165
140
160
-5.7% YoY
155 150
170
180
+9.6% YoY
170 160
145 140
150
135 140
130
129
125 120
-5.0% YoY
115 110
155
+5.4% YoY
130 120 110
Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
100
IRELAND
Hotels, restaurants and bars.
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
DUBLIN
100 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20
105
IRELAND
DUBLIN
Household furniture, electronics and hardware.
3
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| May 2020
US MARKET LEADS SLOWDOWN IN TOURISM SPENDING Annual growth in tourism spend in Dublin slowed significantly in the first quarter of 2020, as travel restrictions were introduced, and Patrick’s Day celebrations cancelled. Spending by tourists registered YoY growth of 1%*. This follows growth of 6.1% and 2.9% in Q3 and Q4 respectively and double-digit growth in the year to Q2 2019. The rate of YoY growth across important markets like the US and China had been declining in recent quarters, but growth turned sharply negative in Q1 2020. In the Chinese market, tourism spending registered -4% YoY growth, while the rate of growth in the US market collapsed to -14%, from a growth rate of +12.6% in Q4 2019. The UK market, in contrast, remained resilient, growing at 1.3% YoY compared to flat growth in Q4 2019.
A weaker picture emerges at a national level with tourist spending remaining flat YoY in Q1 2020 following a period of robust growth throughout 2019. The UK market was the only market to register positive growth nationally in Q1 2020 at +0.7% YoY. Similar to the situation in Dublin, the US (-1.3%) and Chinese (-16.9%) markets both declined in the year to Q1 2020 These data provide the first glimpse of the sudden stop in tourism in Ireland at the end of Q1 2020, with the effects of COVID-19 likely to be even more damaging to retail and hospitality businesses during the usual peak summer months in Q2 and Q3 2020.
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q1 2020 (SA) OVERALL
0%
+1.0%
+0.7% +1.3%
-1.3% -14.0%
-3.7% -6.4%
-15.5% -16.4%
-16.9% -4.0%
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
IRELAND
IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA) 220
210
210
200
200
180 170
160
160
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110 All
UK
180.3
190
171.2
170
100
4
Q1 2014 = 100
220
180
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
DUBLIN
Q1 2014 = 100
190
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
USA
Germany
France
China
100
All
UK
USA
Germany
France
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q1 2019
Q1 2020
Q1 2019
Q1 2020
China
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM