N ove m b e r 2 0 1 9
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
TM
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q3 2019*
+4.7%
+8.3%
OVERALL SALES
+4.0% NECESSITIES
OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND
+2.3% DISCRETIONARY
+9.2% HOUSEHOLD GOODS
+5.1% ECOMMERCE
+3.5% ENTERTAINMENT
*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| November 2019
SOLID RETAIL SALES GROWTH IN DUBLIN DIVERGES FROM WEAKER PERFORMANCE NATIONALLY TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)
126
130
+4.7% YoY
125 120
120
115
+2.5% YoY
110 105
DUBLIN
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
100
IRELAND
Consumer spending in the Dublin economy grew by 4.7% (SA*) YoY in the third quarter of 2019. Growth in retail spend in Dublin continues to exceed the National (incl. Dublin) level, which recorded a YoY increase of 2.5%. Regarding annualised changes, this quarter has seen further divergence in spending growth between Dublin and nationally.
Overall retail sales growth in Dublin continued a
On a quarterly basis, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 0.6% QoQ in Q3 2019. This follows 2.3% QoQ growth in the second quarter, and a slight contraction (-0.1%) in Q1. Nationally, the pace of QoQ growth in retail slowed down significantly, from 1.0% to 0.1%. Again, the Dublin vs National divergence is marked.
to offset some of that weakness in Dublin.
solid 2019 in Q3 while spending across the rest of Ireland decelerated. Tourism spending from other markets in Europe remain slow in Q3 2019 however USA tourist spending is helping
Michael McNamara
GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
+4.7%
125.5
+0.6%
YoY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE
QoQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
Q3 2019
100 = Q1 2014
Q3 2019
METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
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*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
METHOD: ECOMMERCE
SPENDINGPULSE: SELECTED SUBSECTORS
182.5
200
+5.1% YoY
190 180 170 160
178.8
150
+10.4% YoY
140
| November 2019
130 120 110
Dublin consumer spending growth was driven by YoY increases in all four consumption categories, most notably Household Goods (+9.2%). Dublin eCommerce sales growth remains strong, with an increase of 5.1% YoY; this however marks a moderation from the Q2 YoY growth of +9.2%, resulting in a QoQ fall of -2.1%. At a National level, YoY growth was driven by all consumption headings save Discretionary Sales. Annual growth was strongest in Household Goods Sales (+4.7%).
100
IRELAND
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
90
DUBLIN
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY 135
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES 130
126
+2.3% YoY
130
125.1 +4.0% YoY
125
125
120
120 115 115
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
Q3 19
Q2 19
DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT 170
180
150.4
160
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
95
Q3 14
95 Q2 14
100
Q1 14
100
IRELAND
+3.5% YoY
105
Q1 19
-0.3% YoY
105
116.5
110
115.7
110
+3.5% YoY
150
163.5 +9.2% YoY
170 160 150
140
140 130
136.4
120
+2.0% YoY
110
146.5
130
+4.7% YoY
120
IRELAND
Hotels, restaurants and bars.
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
90 Q3 14
90 Q2 14
100
Q1 14
100
Q2 14
110
DUBLIN
Household furniture, electronics and hardware.
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TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| November 2019
BREXIT RELATED WEAKNESS IN UK & GERMAN SPENDING OFFSET BY US AND CHINESE TOURISTS Total tourism spend in Dublin registered YoY growth of 8.3%* in Q3 2019, although the rate of growth has moderated from 14.4% a year ago. Dublin growth was positively influenced by spending from American (+13.7% YoY) and Chinese (+6.1% YoY) tourists. UK tourist spending in Dublin contracted for the third consecutive quarter in Q3. This decrease is particularly noteworthy as the UK is historically Ireland’s largest tourist market. Exchange rate volatility and inflation mean that UK holidaymakers have reduced disposable income. A recent report by Barclay’s Bank (2019) indicates 31% of respondents plan to spend more holiday time at home in the UK in 2019 than in previous years, with 20% citing affordability as their main reason for staying
home. Furthermore, a recent Tourism Ireland study has found that 10-20% of UK tourists are considering postponing foreign trips, including those to Ireland, as they reassess household expenditure in light of Brexit. The CEO of Tourism Ireland has called uncertainty the most pressing issue for the sector. From a national perspective tourist spend increased 4.4% YoY. The USA and China have shown consecutive years of buoyant spending growth; with YoY growth in USA tourism spend averaging 16.5% between Q1 2015 and Q3 2019. The tourism sector was provided with a contingency fund of €40 million to shield it from Brexit-related shocks in Budget 2020. However, it is hoped that, new opportunities - such as emerging markets - as well as marketing Ireland both domestically and internationally will negate the need for this safety net.
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q3 2019 (SA) OVERALL
+4.4% +8.3% YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN
+13.5% +13.7%
-1.8% +0.9%
+6.8% +6.1%
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
+4.6% -4.2% YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
-1.6% -2.6%
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
IRELAND
IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA) Q1 2014 = 100
220
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
DUBLIN
DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA) Q1 2014 = 100
240 230
210
220
200
210
190
169.7
180
183
200 190
170
180
160
170
150
160 150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110 100
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
110 All
UK
USA
Germany
France
China
100
All
UK
USA
Germany
France
Q3 2016
Q3 2017
Q3 2016
Q3 2017
Q3 2018
Q3 2019
Q3 2018
Q3 2019
China
(1) https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/uncertainty-the-biggest-threat-to-irish-tourism-sector-gibbons-38579438.html
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*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM