Scenario Planning
Scenario analysis is an important method of futuristic research, which can effectively deal with the uncertainty of environmental impact. This method must first identify the driving factors of future development, and analyse the causal relationship between various factors on the basis of assumptions about various future events , Which constitutes the process of events developing along different paths for a period of time in the future, and through detailed and rigorous reasoning to describe a variety of future situations; different scenarios provide reference for decision-makers and strategic planning.
In this project I considers the characteristics of local community of Homebush and exciting catchment of Powells Creek, and establishes a scenario analysis model for predicting resource and environmental issues in urban planning. This model is based on analysing the sources of uncertain factors in future (eg. pandemic), and overall consideration of the driving force of urban development Factors: Construct comprehensive scenarios of urban
05 METHODS AND TECHNIQUES
development and resource and environmental sub-scenarios through network prediction, screening and clustering. This scenario analysis mode also uses traditional impact prediction to combine qualitative scenarios with impact-n-direction analysis, and finally conducts scenarios Evaluation of the impact , and formulate corresponding countermeasures and measures.
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