IR_ World Order_All Parts combined_Aaditya Mishra

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Presented by: Aaditya Mishra, NIT-Bhopal-2015

About me: 1. 2015 NIT-B mech engg

2. IAS 2015 -1st attempt, waiting for mains result 3. Optional Subject- Pol Sci and IR

About the lesson: 1.Objective: International relations with emphasis on India.

2. End Goal of collection: Complete understanding of India’s relations with countries and world organisations.

3. Coverage: GS 2, Pol Sci Optional Paper 2 Section B etc.

WORLD ORDER(WO) WHAT IS WO? 1. Arrangement and positions of countries in the global power equations.

2. Power as capacity/capability based on demography, military, geography, economic strength etc.

3. Common words often used is unipolar, multipolar, bipolar etc.

4. Pre 1991 => Bipolar WO (US vs USSR) 5. Post 1991 => UniPolar WO (US alone till 2000)

BI-POLAR WORLD ORDER 1. Product of the Cold War - Two competing blocs distanced by geography, ideology, political structures and economic formations.

2. Tendency towards Balance of Power(BoP) - Cold war bipolarity was seen as inherently stable - Waltz, 1979 3. Peace by Balance of Terror and Mutually assured destruction(MAD)

BI-POLAR WORLD ORDER 1. It was also a period of tension, mistrust, suspicionCuban Missile crisis(1962), Arms Race etc.

2. Has often neglected the issues of Global South like development, sustainable development, poverty eradication etc.

3. It was this time when Nehru had given a third way- Non Alignment which is often praised for preventing the “cold” war from turning “hot.”

UNI-POLAR WORLD ORDER post 1991 •

USA the global hegemon hegemonic stability theory

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USA became “hyper power”

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Decline of Russia- glasnost and perestroika

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USA gloating over “winning the cold war”

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Francis Fukuyama- “end of history”

MULTI-POLAR WORLD ORDER •

A minimum of three actors- need not be states, can be MNC’s etc. also

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Why change from Uni-polar to Multi Polar •

USA’s mistakes- excessive use of hard power, unilateral invasions (Iraq)

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Globalisation and increased role of MNC’s, TNC’s etc.

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Growth of revisionist power - China

EMERGING WORLD ORDER •

Decline of the West and Rise of the Rest

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Rise of BRICS countries, SE Asian economies, ASEAN

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Learning from the mistakes of USA in unipolar phase China has started giving more humane touch to its policies outside its territory e.g. OROB, AIIB etc.

EMERGING WORLD ORDER •

Regionalisation of World Politics - APEC, TPP, NAFTA, SAARC, ASEAN, EU.

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Dilution of sovereignty of nations because of rise of non state actors.

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Asymmetric warfare - threats of terrorist organisations (ISIS)

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Claim of “clash of civilisations” - Samuel P Huntington

3 POWER BLOCS CAN BE SEEN 1.

US ALLIANCE 2. CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS 3. EMERGING ECONOMIES

US ALLIANCE

US ALLIANCE

US ALLIANCE

US ALLIANCE

CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS

CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS

CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS

CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS

CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS

US ALLIANCE oldest and backed by strategic and military alliances. strongest alliance because – same race, same language, same religion– “Unifying factor” is a lot of commonalities between US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand.

Technology and knowledge powers.

US ALLIANCE strong central leaders, human rights, democracy, enormous amount of “Power of attraction” – soft power i.e. media BBC, NYT, guardian, Hollywood, lifestyle-culture etc.

New York as finance capital, financial control over a vast areas– US dollar global currency regime (Renminbi in SDR angle), control over IMF, World Bank, Control over think tanks, rating agencies – S&P, Fitch. influences on other countries through MNCs – defend each other's interests in other parts of the world.

CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS 1. Emerging axis

2. Not much commonalities 3. “Necessity” makes them come closer – not based on common values, Deep mutual suspicion still exists 4. Together they can counter US alliance but not alone 5. Issues btw them 1. Siberia issue 2. Trade imbalance issue 3. Border issue

CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS-WEAKNESS “an uneasy friendship” 1. Lacks soft power– Western media- demonises Vladimir Putin etc. ( Syrian crisis angle, Why USA and alliance ineffective etc.)

2. Hence developing its own soft power sources – media houses, own version of Google, FB Facebook, Twitter – "Great firewall of China.”

3. Both have interests in central Asia – Russia traditional major power, China's growing influence – hence Vladimir Putin’s East Asia pivot, India as counterweight to China, India's entry into SCO, China promoting Pakistan as counterweight to India

CHINA-RUSSIA WEAKNESS 4. There is "shadowboxing "going on(make a show of tackling a problem or opponent while avoiding any direct engagement.)

CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS-SHORT TERM COMMONALITIES Short-term commonalities Energy producer Russia, China consumer recent examples: Altai gas pipelines, Power of Siberia pipeline – $400 billion deal operational by 2018 China modernising its military to counter Asia pivot of USA – Russia supplying Vladimir Putin’s trying to gain lost influence(EEU etc.), China wants to establish “Middle Kingdom”

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR INDIA “India is like a rich fiancée. “A beautiful fiancée will have many suitors. Just be careful no one promises marriage and then deceives.”— Russian Ambassador to India, Alexander M Kadakin.

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2. India is in an advantageous positions - “swing power concept” 3. It is wooed by many countries. It’s presence in any block shifts the balance of power.

WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO ?

1. make sure all our doors are open=> “MULTIPLE ALIGNMENTS" 2. we are not a part of any “containment” policy, rather we believe in “ hedging against unwanted assertions” 3. we have a dual approach- “cooperate and compete.”

4. One thumb rule of Diplomacy- “protect and further national interests” realism and pragmatism.

5. India’s foreign policy should lead to our socio economic development.

6. India should use SMART power ( appropriate use of hard and soft power)

EURASIAN CENTURY

Emerging economies 1. Want global peace and stability 2. Multipolar world 3. UNSC reforms, IMF, WB reforms, Dohadevelopment talks, CBDR in Climate change 4. Weaknesses No commonalities, Competitors. lack of interdependence – hardly any trade or people to people contact, absence of strong leaders.

What does India want ? ⁃ India hopes to be a leader of this group because of its traditional role in NAM. • India Africa summit – Bridge this out between north and south • Multiple alignments and close relations with every great power in emerging world order • Proactive role in BASIC, NAM, BRICS, G77 etc.

NEXT LESSON on 6 Jan, 2016 •

India’s foreign policy- continuity and change

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Please give your feedback in the comments below.

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The slides will be available for download.

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