Analysis of the energy and transport situation in Aden,Yemen by Abdul Studio

Planning my city smartly - Aden, Yemen Sustainable Urban Planning and Buildings Sustainable Transport in cities Prof. Sesil Koutra Prof. Zacharie De Greve

Abdulrahman Mohamed Mons, BE June 23, 2020

TABLE OF CONTENTS 11.1-

OVERVIEW: INTRODUCTION (PHASE 1)

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1.2- HISTORY 1.3- WHY I CHOOSE ADEN. 1.3.1- SECURITY 1.3.2- ENERGY 1.3.4- MOBILITY 1.3.5- WATER 1.3.6- DATA

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DATA BREAKDOWN (PHASE 2)

2.1- AGE AND POPULATION 2.2- CONFLICT DAMAGE ASSESSMENT 2.3- FOCUSED DISTRICTS 3-

BASELINE SITUATION

3.1- ENERGY 3.1.1- ELECTRICITY NETWORK. 3.1.2- ADEN POWER GENERATION PLANTS. 3.1.3- ELECTRICITY TARIFFS 3.1.4- RENEWABLES POTENTIAL 3.1.4.1- Solar Energy 3.1.4.2- Wind Energy 3.1.4.3- Geothermal Energy 3.1.4.3- Biomass Energy 3.2- TRANSPORT 3.2.1- TRANSPORT MANAGEMENT 3.2.2- TRANSPORT INDICATORS 3.2.3- ADEN BASELINE SITUATION 3.2.4- ADEN TRANSPORT NETWORK 3.2.4- SOCIAL CONTRAINTS 3.2.5- ROAD ISSUES

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3.2.6- SOCIAL CONSTRAINTS 3.3- CONSTRAINTS AND POSSIBILITIES 4- CONSTRAINTS AND POSSIBILITIES 5- MITIGATION PLAN (PHASE 3) 5.1- ENERGY DECENTRALIZATION 5.1.1- PROMOTE PV PROGRAMS AND LINK EXISTING DISTRIBUTED SOLAR SYSTEMS TO THE GRID. 5.1.2- INCREASE EXISTING POWER STATIONS EFFICIENCY. A- fuel switching: B- Combined cycle, Regenerative cycle or CHP: C- Energy efficiency (demand - side management). 5.1.3- DEPLOYMENT OF DECENTRALIZED MIX-RENEWABLE ENERGY 5.2- TRANSPORT DIVERSIFICATION 5.2.1- PROMOTE BIKE SHARING 5.2.2- CREATE PEDESTRIAN FRIENDLY WALKWAYS. 5.2.3- LIMIT PASSENGER CARS AND IMPROVE PUBLIC BUSES 5.2.4- IMPROVE PUBLIC BUSES 6- PROMOTE PV AND LINK DISTRIBUTED GENERATION (PHASE 4)

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7- APPENDIX

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REFERENCES

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TABLE OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: ADEN LOCATION [40] ....................................................................................................................................... - 3 FIGURE 2: ADEN GOVERNORATES [] ................................................................................................................................... - 4 FIGURE 3: FIRST PAVED ROAD NETWORK [41] ...................................................................................................................... - 4 FIGURE 4: CONFLICTS EVENTS IN ADEN REPORTED FATALITIES IN ADEN JANUARY 2015 [42] ........................................................ - 5 FIGURE 5: YEMEN TRANSPORTATION NETWORK [43] ............................................................................................................ - 6 FIGURE 6: YEMEN POPULATION PYRAMID [45] .................................................................................................................... - 8 FIGURE 7: ADEN POPULATION EVOLUTION [44] .................................................................................................................... - 8 FIGURE 8:SATELLITE BASED CONFLICT DAMAGE ASSESSMENT MAP [46] ..................................................................................... - 9 FIGURE 9: FOCUSED DISTRICTS- TOTAL AREA 40KM2 .............................................................................................................. - 9 FIGURE 10: FOCUSED AREA LAND USE AND LAND COVER[4]................................................................................................... - 10 FIGURE 11: TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY SOURCE- YEMEN (1990-2017) [6] ................................................................. - 11 FIGURE 12 TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR, YEMEN (1990- 2017) [6]. ........................................................... - 11 FIGURE 13: SOLAR PV GENERATION [6]............................................................................................................................ - 12 FIGURE 14: YEMEN, PRODUCTION VS. CONSUMPTION [7] .................................................................................................... - 12 FIGURE 15: PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR [8] ................................................................................................ - 13 FIGURE 16: NATIONAL TRANSMISSION GRID [26] ............................................................................................................... - 13 FIGURE 17: SINGLE LINE DIAGRAM OF TRANSMISSION NETWORK [9]....................................................................................... - 14 FIGURE 18: ADEN ELECTRICITY NETWORK MAP [47]. .......................................................................................................... - 14 FIGURE 19: MEAN WIND VELOCITY [19] ........................................................................................................................... - 19 FIGURE 20: WIND MEAN POWER DENSITY MAP (W/M2) AT 150M HIGH.[20] ........................................................................ - 20 FIGURE 21: GROUND HEAT FLOW POINTS AND CONTOUR LINES SOURCE: (IRENA) [16]. ........................................................... - 21 FIGURE 22: YEMEN WASTE COMPOSITION AND ADEN DUMPSITE [23]. .................................................................................. - 22 FIGURE 23: YEMEN TRANSPORTATION NETWORK [27] ......................................................................................................... - 24 FIGURE 24: NUMBERS OF CAR IN YEMEN IN 2007 AND 2008 ............................................................................................... - 26 FIGURE 25: ADEN MODE OF TRANSPORT ........................................................................................................................... - 27 FIGURE 26: ADEN ROAD NETWORK [30] ........................................................................................................................... - 28 FIGURE 27: USE OF TRANSPORT MEANS BY GENDER SURVEY RESPONSES.................................................................................. - 30 FIGURE 28: TRAVEL PATTERN BY GENDER........................................................................................................................... - 30 FIGURE 30: TOTAL C02 EMISSIONS IN YEMEN (1990-2017) ............................................................................................... - 33 FIGURE 30: TOTAL CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR IN YEMEN 1990-2017 .................................................................................. - 33 FIGURE 31: COGENERATION VS. SEPARATE CYCLE EFFICIENCY SCHEME [33]. ............................................................................ - 35 FIGURE 32: PROPOSED SOLAR POWER FARM ...................................................................................................................... - 36 FIGURE 33: PROPOSED WIND POWER PLANT ...................................................................................................................... - 36 FIGURE 34: WIND TURBINE COST BREAKDOWN ................................................................................................................... - 37 FIGURE 35: FAKE SOLAR EQUIPMENT IN ADEN. THE LACK OF MAINTENANCE SKILLS AND QUALITY CONTROL LEADS TO DANGEROUS MALFUNCTION OF SOLAR EQUIPMENT [36] .............................................................................................................. - 42 FIGURE 36 NO QUALITY ASSURANCE FOR PV MODULES (PERFORMANCE CERTIFICATION).[36] ..................................................... - 42 FIGURE 37: COST OF PV SYSTEM FOR SMALL TO LARGE RESIDENTIAL USE,2018 [37] ................................................................. - 43 FIGURE 38: ILLUSTRATIONS OF DIFFERENT CONNECTION MODES. THE SWARM GRID (MICROGRID) CAN BE INTRODUCED TO BENEFIT RESIDENTS AT LARGER SCALE. [39] ........................................................................................................................................ - 44 -

‘Planning my city smartly’

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1- Overview: “planning my own city smartly” is a joint individual project between the Sustainable Urban Planning and Buildings course and Sustainable Transport in cities. The project aims to utilize the student’s toolbox to identify and analyze urban core problems in a chosen city or district and set strategies and action plan to solve them. The project is divided into four stages. Each stage has a set of requirements and objectives to achieve in order to reach the ultimate goal progressively. The project was an innovative assessment method to test the student’s understanding to adapt and interrelate different concepts studied in the relevant courses. This report will study the case of Aden city in Yemen. It will first give an overall picture of the current situation. Then the report will introduce different proposals to Energy and Transport in the city. Lastly, it will set a mechanism or action plan to apply it.

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Introduction (phase 1)

Aden is a port city situated along the north coast of the Gulf of Aden to the south of Yemen. Aden is also called temporary and economic capital of Yemen, located by the eastern approach to the Red Sea, 170 km east of Bab-el-Mandeb. Its population is approximately 800,000 people and an area of 760 km2.[1] The peninsula enclosing the western side of the harbor is called Little Aden. The volcanic peninsula of Aden forms a near-mirror image, enclosing the harbor and port on the western side. Little Aden became the site of the oil refinery and tanker port after gaining the independence from Britain. Aden became partially self-governing in 1962 and was incorporated in the Federation of South Arabia in 1963. Aden encloses the eastern side of a vast, natural harbor that comprises the modern port. Figure 1: Aden location [40] The city of Aden consists of 8 districts or officially called governorates. Namely, Khormaksar, Sira, Alma’ala, Almansura, Dar Saad, Alsheikh Othman, Altawahi. Figure two shows the distribution of different districts. Looking at the map, it is obvious the east part of the city is heavily dense.

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Figure 2: Aden governorates []

1.2- History The Crown Colony of Aden was a critical way and station on the route to British India. Beginning in the 19th century, Britain had signed treaties with the tribal rulers inland, in order to secure the water supply and hinterland of Aden colony, and created a network of nine sheikhdoms under British protection. The northern part of Yemen including the capital Sana’a was securely by Ottoman, and North Yemen an Ottoman province ruled by its traditional Zaydi Imam. Aden first transport master plan was done in 1918 by the British colonization (figure 3) to facilitate the trade internally and enforce its rule and power. In 1967, Britain withdrew from southern Yemen and the two parts united as the republic of Yemen in 1990. After 15 years of union, a civil war began across Yemen and battle of Aden seize in 2015. Figure 3: first paved road network [41]

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1.3- Why I choose Aden. Aside of the fact it is the city I was born and raised; Aden was the pearl of the whole region in modernity and a role model to follow in terms of education, health, culture and entertainment. Yet, after struggling with many internal conflicts lately, the situation has deteriorated dramatically to worsen the city in many aspects. So, it is a responsible act to help apply the knowledge and experience back to my home city. The following are some critical issues and figures to summarize the whole issues:

1.3.1- Security more than five years of war has led to huge fragmentation of the institution and authority. Because of central authority disappearance, Yemen in general is replaced by local structures and militias distinct statelets fighting against one another. The political situation is uncertain at the moment and the threat of a further escalation of violence and disorder remains. The weapons were readily available and incidents, be solely crimes has decreased recently. This is because Aden is controlled by the Southern Transitional Council “STC”. Formed in 2017 and backed by UAE, the Southern Transitional Council is a secessionist movement focused on gaining independence for South Yemen again. It has tighten the security situation and has declared self-governance of the south in 2020. At the moment, the security situation in Aden is relatively secured with no major escalations. Figure 4: Conflicts Events in Aden reported fatalities in Aden January 2015 Yet, other essential services are collapsing as a [42] result of years of war, storms flooding and total fall down of infrastructure.

1.3.2- Energy Energy infrastructure in Aden and Yemen was poor even before the war. Power cuts has become frequent in a country where the average temperature during summer months are 32C°. Energy is a vital input for both social and economic development. Without access to adequate and reliable

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electricity services, economic growth and improvements in quality of life will remain constrained. According to the world bank, Yemen is the least electrified country in the MENA region, with only about 40% of the total population having access to electricity[2]. In rural areas, the electrification rate is very low at only about 20%. The low access and the absence of reliable electricity supply, particularly in rural areas, have been recognized as severe constraints to economic growth in Yemen, and to the achievement of the Government Of Yemenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s poverty alleviation objectives. electricity to a larger portion of its population. The current difficult political situation, which directly affected electricity access around the country, has stimulated a huge market for small-scale solar energy projects for both residential and agriculture sectors.

1.3.4- Mobility Through the 1950s, Yemen's transportation system consisted of a few primitive mud tracks connecting the larger towns. Then, in 1961, technicians from China completed a 224-km road between the capital Sana'a and AlHudaydah port city, the Yemeni first asphalt highway. By 2002, Yemen had about 69,263 km of roadway, of which only 9,963 km were paved. Aden has experienced many issues with infrastructure and mobility. The Figure 5: Yemen Transportation Network [43] transportation system was heavily destructed because of key roads bombings. Fuel shortages deepens the crisis. Hundred of cars line up at every gas station in Aden occasionally. Black markets have emerged, and exploited people needs which have raised the prices fourfold. This increase in price has restricted vehicles movement and mobility sector considerably.

1.3.5- Water Given that Yemen is one of the driest countries in Middle East, Yemen water shortage is a major concern. There is an increasing difficulty to access water. Many traditional drillings of wells into aquifers and the stop of the only desalination plant in Mocha, have caused a lot of damage to water supply. The making of clean water has thus become more expensive and scarcer. According to the Atlantic Council, 19.3 million Yemenis are without access to clean water and sanitation let alone the famine condition [3].

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1.3.6- Data Data in Yemen are provided by the governmental ministries especially Central Statistical Organization. Yet, there latest reports were released in 2006. These has kept periodic selfministries report available until 2011 just before the situation breakdown. During the crisis, reliable data can be obtained by international organizations such as the World Bank, European commission, and IEA. Furthermore, below are some difficulties encountered during data collection: • • • •

The accessibility of data is limited and not easy. The data is considered confidential and secret. There are limited sector specific data and no history of data over a period of time. Some of the available data contains inconsistencies. Still, there is no periodic census or national data bank

So, in order to comprehensively cover the tasks, a variety of data sources were used, i.e. records from international agencies and local ministries, corporations and entities as well as estimation of the national data to adapt it to Aden case.

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2- Data breakdown (phase 2) As mentioned, that there are eight districts in Aden city. Yet not all have same specific level of damage and impacts. The focused districts are highly dense, and the most damaged regions after war. Focused districts are Sira, Khormaksar, Almaala, Altawahi. These four districts are considered the core area of the city. The following contents will give a statistical and mapping overview of the population, growth, landuse, damage assessment and location of the focused zones.

2.1- Age and population Yemen has a population of 29 million. The majority of the population are children and Youth under the age of 30. The pyramid is almost symmetrical for male and female According to [9], the total fertility rate “TFR” in Aden is 3.8. Figure 7 shows the exponential growth in 2015. This is due to massive migrations from neighboring governorates because of conflicts.

Figure 7: Aden population evolution [44] Figure 6: Yemen population Pyramid [45]

2.2- Conflict damage assessment The purpose of the satellite mapping is to generate a comprehensive knowledge on the physical damage and the cities’ diachronic expansion towards developing City Profiles and City Recovery Strategies in the context of the EU funded project, “Rapid City and Neighborhood Profiling Towards a development-oriented urban recover process in Yemen”. The map shows the huge destruction in industry, utilities, public and private services. These services include energy network from generation to distribution which was heavily damaged. Most of the damage severity is moderate in its kind. It is mainly located in the southern eastern peninsula of Aden (khormaksar district) where the dormant volcano (Shamsan mountain).

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the damage has target mainly high dense areas and essential utilities like energy plants, airports and seaport particularly at the periphery of the major roads. Regarding the transportation damage assessment, it is related to the number of vehicles destroyed (public buses) not the infrastructure (i.e. roads, street lightings.). These buses are privately owned and so not many buses were heavily destructed.

Figure 8:Satellite based conflict damage assessment map [46]

2.3- Focused districts applying urban mitigation to the focused districts means solving other districts issues. Similar urban problems exist but with higher severity. The core area isn’t only dense but also has the most important Aden’s landmarks and city hubs, e.g. Sira Fortess, Altawila Tanks and little ben clock. As shown in the map (fig. 10) , the high urban fabric has extended rapidly from the core peninsula to the north of Khormaksar district. This

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Figure 9: Focused districts- total area 40km2

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urban sprawl forming slums has increased significantly in recent years. On the other hand, transport challenges rise especially as road network hasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t evolved with the same pace of urban growth.

Figure 10: focused area land use and land cover[4]

3- Baseline situation As previously mentioned, there are many topics and issues to analyze and discuss. In this study, the focus will mainly be on Energy and Transport crisis. These two sectors are in the glimpse to collapse and are the prioritized topics suggested by the world bank (plus water management).

3.1- Energy Energy is a vital input for both social and economic development. Without access to adequate and reliable electricity services, economic growth and improvements in quality of life will remain constrained. According to the world bank, Yemen is the least electrified country in the MENA region, with only about 40% of the total population having access to electricity. In rural areas, the electrification rate is very low at only about 20%. The low access and the absence of reliable electricity supply, particularly in rural areas, have been recognized as severe constraints

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to economic growth in Yemen, and to the achievement of the Government Of Yemen’s poverty alleviation objectives [5]. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2000, oil made up 98.4% of the total primary energy supply in Yemen with the remainder comprising biofuels and waste. From about 2008, natural gas and coal entered the energy mix, and from about 2015, wind and solar energies etc. entered the energy mix. In 2017, oil made up about 76% of the total primary energy supply, natural gas about 16%, biofuels and waste about 3.7%, wind and solar energies etc. about 1.9% and coal about 2.4%. The following figures from the International energy agency (IEA) explains the energy situation.

Figure 11: Total primary energy supply by source- Yemen (1990-2017) [6]

In 2014, the crude oil production fell drastically, from 7.6ktoe to 2.47 ktoe (kilo Ton of Oil equivalent) in 2017. Other energy sources haven’t been able to compensate the energy loss. The transport sectors accounts for 36% of primary energy consumption. Due to the fuel shortages in 2017. The transport sector total consumption has fallen and is now almost equal to the residential sector of final energy consumption (800 ktoe) compared to 2844 ktoe in 2014. Figure 12 Total final energy consumption by sector, Yemen (1990- 2017) [6].

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Figure 13: Solar PV generation [6]

On the other hand, the share of modern renewables in Yemen particularly solar energy has increased exponentially to 4.5% with energy generation of 732 GWh.

Figure 14: Yemen, production vs. consumption [7]

Yemen's oil consumption has been trending steadily upward. The country has two operating refineries with a total capacity of = 140,000 b/d (barrel/day). While these refineries produce some of the petroleum products Yemen needs, the refineries do not operate at full capacity, and the country imports additional petroleum products to help meet internal demand. Aden Refinery, built during British occupation, is the largest in the country, accounting for a big share of Yemen's total refining capacity. Yemen used to reinject most of its natural gas production to aid in oil recovery. However, the startup of the Yemen LNG facility in 2009 gave Yemen the ability to produce and export natural gas for the first time. Since 2009, Yemen's natural gas consumption has grown, but not nearly as fast as its natural gas exports. Yemenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s consumption of natural gas remains limited to household usage for cooking purposes.

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Figure 15: Primary Energy consumption by sector [8]

In terms of primary energy consumption share, the pie chart (left) illustrates the percentage of energy consumption by sector where the transport sector consumes the largest percentage in Aden. The primary energy source is oil. Additionally, 30% of the total energy consumed is to fuel electricity power plants (Diesel primarily). The right chart demonstrates that rural consumption is very low and does not go beyond 3% which corresponds to about 10% of the total consumers connected by the Public Electricity Cooperation (PEC). Urban households, however, have the major share of electricity consumption with 55%. Industry and agriculture sector are the second lowest.

3.1.1- Electricity network. Yemen has one main 132 kV grid as shown in the Figure 17. A new gas-fired power plant was commissioned at Ma’rib, to the east of Sana’a in 2010 and connected to the main grid via a 400kV double circuit transmission line at Bani Hoshish. A second 400 kV transmission line is also planned from Ma’rib to connect to the 132kV substation at Dhamar, south of Sana’a. There are also smaller grids at the central eastern part of the country and an isolated network around Sada in the north.

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Figure 16: National Transmission grid [26]

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Past studies have recommended that the grids be connected to the main grid, particularly the central eastern grids.

Figure 17: Single line diagram of transmission network [9]

These isolated island in the north and east part of the countries are planned to be connected to the main grid via a 400KV transmission line from the central region (Marib). figure 17, shows Aden network to in relation to the whole national network. First it is obvious that Aden plays an important role in the national electricity grid by supporting neighboring cities in case of a blackout. Aden inner city (medium voltage) is connected via a 33KV and 11KV voltage line level and is connected via 132KV to neighboring cities. This medium voltage level (11kV) is used to transmit electricity from the substations to the demand side. The power plants generate power at different voltage levels (11KV, 15KV,

Figure 18: Aden Electricity network map [47]. â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Planning my city smartlyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;

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33KV), these are then boosted to the transmission voltages of 230 KV and provisionally 400KV with frequency of 50 50Hz [9]. Figure

3.1.2- Aden power generation plants. There are two types of power generation plant, state and privately owned. The latter is refered to it as (purchased power). The government pays the private generators the cost of fuel and generation tariffs. The ironic part of electricity in Aden is that citizens have refused to pay electricity bills since 2016 due to poor service (outages), energy affordability, weak regulations and working mechanisms. So, the government bearing all the cost of power generation in Aden with negligible contributions from some citizens and particular industries. The following table gives a summary of these plants and features: Table 1: Aden electricity power plants

Aden generation (daily updated) – 25/05/2020 (Aden Electricity Control Panel) [10] + local resources Power plant name Ownership Type of Nominal Available Ltr/KWh fuel capacity Capacity MW MW Al-Hiswa 1 Al-Hiswa 2 Alamnsura 1 Almansura 2 Khormaksar Shahynaz Hujeef 1 (old) Hujeef 2 (New) 22-May Stadium (Alaleain) Almansura (Alsaadi) Alahram Bajarsh Saada Altawahi New Aden (under construction) Total Total demand Sent to nearby districts outside Aden

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Government Government Government Government Government Government Government Government Government Government Purchased Purchased Purchased Purchased Purchased Government

Mazut Diesel Mazut Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Diesel Natural Gas

185 41 0.532 60 0 0301 70 0 0.232 64 24.5 0.277 25 3 0.253 40 10 0.266 10 4 0.270 10 8.3 0.261 40 4 0.274 10 9.2 0.273 60 46 0.266 40 31.9 0.265 40 27.9 0.266 20 19.5 0.263 10 2.7 0.269 264 684 232 448.75MW (Beir Nasser: 0.75MW+ Lahj: 1MW +Aldalea: 4MW) = 5.75MW

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Electricity deficit

222.5 MW

As shown in table 1, the marginal electricity deficit is 222.5MW and has increased during summer to reach 50% of the actual demand. In addition, the following are some general facts summarized below: • • • • • • • • •

Average electricity outages in Aden is 8 hours. Winter demand load is 340 Mw. Transmission losses 18% ~ 36%. Distribution losses 7% 129.16KWh is the electricity consumption per capita in Yemen in 2019, compared to 5510 KWh per capita in Europe. This is due to fuel shortages. 1 Million USD is the daily cost of fuel for electricity generation in Aden according to the minister of electricity in July/ 2018. Including energy subsidies, 740 USD/ton for diesel, and 575$/ton for Mazut (1 liter = 1.38$ , Yemen as of 2019) 0.3 ton of CO2/capita is the emissions in 2017 which is the lowest since 1990 [11]. Regarding the sociological part and since the average outage is 8 hours a day, electricity service is totally unacceptable. (energy poverty).

Table 2: The Immediately Needed Funds for Recovery of the Yemen Generation and Distribution Networks in the South and East Parts of Yemen (Legal Government Territory) as of 2018.[8].

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Furthermore, the immediate funds based on a damage survey in Aden in 2018 as shown in table 2 is estimated to be 38.2 million USD. Two thirds of which is required for spare parts.

3.1.3- Electricity tariffs According to the Public Electricity corporation [12], Yemen electricity tariffs shown in figure 19. These prices represent the old tariffs. Yet, in 2019 the local authority has doubled the prices because of oil prices fluctuation and the Yemeni currency (Riyal) inflation [13].

Table 3: PEC Yemen electricity tariffs as of year 2013 [12]

According to the World Bank, Yemen spends more on the fuel subsidy than on health, education, and social protection combined. As a result, low resilience and efficiency in the urban systems and overall lifestyle. These direct and indirect subsidies in the power sector counts over 10% of the local GDP because of the poor state of finance of Public Electricity Corporation “PEC”. The subsidized price of Petro products adds a heavy load to the public budget allocated. While the lack of private sector participation and liberation is still limited.

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Instead, removal of fuel subsidies and direct it to incentive the renewable energy production will enhance the country social and economic prospects.

Table 4: Petro Products as of year 2013 [8]

3.1.4- Renewables potential There are various potentials available to enhance the electrical power generation, transmission and distribution in Yemen and these potentials are in abundance in Yemen and which can be harnessed and utilized. Recent study for the “Renewable Energy Strategy” for Yemen carried by the Ministry of Electricity and PEC showed that Yemen has very high potential of renewable energy, which can be obtained from Solar, Wind, Biomass, and Geothermal sources. In short,→ availability of different types of fuels (fossil + renewables) → enable building power plants and power distribution sub sectors. 3.1.4.1- Solar Energy According to [14], Yemen although of the fragile context, it has shown that PV is a true value to citizens and is considered a survival solution during the difficult war times. Solar energy before 2014 had a limited used especially in rural areas for irrigation and agriculture purposes. It is the main source of power for the water pumps and other rural electrifications usages. Yet after 2014 (war starts), solar utilization has increased rapidly in Aden. The increase share has partially solved the power crisis but still many constraints and challenges arise. Appendix A shows a satellite map which indicate a decline in electricity access and consumption in Yemen overall. Going more to solar details, Yemen solar energy resources is abundant. It is located within the sunbelt countries (Appendix B). Yemen is one of the countries with highest solar radiation of around 5.2-6.8 kw/m2 per day. The shining cloudless hours is averaged to 8 hours a day. Yemen average direct normal radiation (DNI) ranges from 1900-2500 KWh/m2/year which is sufficiently enough to generate electricity either centralized (Concentrated solar Panels “CSP”) or decentralized using small scale modules [15].

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The total installed power capacity has increased dramatically in the last two years from 2.4MW in 2014 to 250MW in 2018. Also the total electricity generation followed the same trend from 9.7GWh in 2014 to 193.7GWh in 2017 [16] (see Appx C). In Aden, it is estimated that Average yearly global irradiance is between (2118−2264) KWh/m2 with average PV potential (specific yield) of 1680- 1826 KWh/KWp (p)→(peak) and solar energy potential with an annual average of 6.19 kWh/m2 per day. Moreover, the average hours of a day sunshine throughout the year, from 7.3 to 9.1 h. That's equal (3000–3500) hours yearly [17]. Because the situation necessitates citizens to look for alternative source of power, Aden has a Solar PV penetration of around 30-50% of total households [18]. Constraints: Although of the abundance of opportunities challenges facing the energy sector in Yemen is as follows: • • • •

Financial and administrative corruption, the prices of solar panels have tripled in recent years due to market failures and monopolies and lack of coordination and supervision. Security situation → attacks on the network and powerplant Lack of awareness in energy consumption and management. Lack of technical expertise of renewables especially solar panels optimal installation and maintenance.

In summary: Market, Economics and Finance, Institutional, Technical Awareness

3.1.4.2- Wind Energy Yemen has a coastal line of 2500km going along the Red sea in the far northern west to the Mukalla city in the South East in Arabian sea. If wind farms are installed, the theoretical possibility exceed 308GW (average wind speed 8m/s) [15]. Fortunately, Aden is among the coastal cities with the most suitable coastal areas among Al-Mokha Zone and Taiz which has favorable conditions of wind. The figure shows the results of a study provided by Civil Aviation and Meteorology Authority (CAMA). These studies have confirmed that wind energy for electricity generation can be implemented in various areas, in both the coast and the highlands and valleys. These studies have been shown six most promising areas including Aden [19].

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Figure 20: Wind Mean power density map (W/m2) at 150m high.[20]

Running the global wind Atlas in Aden I have found the wind speed ranges from 4-8m/s. the highest as show in fig.20 (right side) is at the top of Shamsan mountain and to west in Alburaqah district (low population density zone) with average wind speed of 5 m/s in 80% of the annual hours ( usually cut-in speed is around 3–4 m/s). The following are also some instantaneous measurements for the focused districts indicated previously: • • • •

Sira district: 7.7 M/S , 518 W/ M2 Almaala district: 7.5M/S , 473 W/ M2 Altawahi district: 6.8M/S , 361 W/M2 Khormaksar District: 5.8 M/S , 219 W/ M2

3.1.4.3- Geothermal Energy Yemen is situated near three tectonic boundaries which are among the most active areas of the world. These are the Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea and the Eastern African Rift System. These three tectonic plates meet in a triple junction which result in high geothermal gradient, and subsequently geothermal energy potential , estimated to be 28.5 GW [21]. In Yemen there are many regions characterized by the nature of volcanic and more than seven regions (Aden city) are natural hot springs of water.

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In the Red Sea region, geothermal gradients range from 40°C/km to 77°C/km. The worldwide geothermal gradient average is only at around 30 °C/km [22]. World map of heat flow shows heat Yemen and Italy have the same potential of heat flux (60mw / cm2), the total capacity of geothermal power installed to produce electric power using (Geothermal Energy) in Italy more than 500 MW [19].

Figure 21: Ground heat flow points and contour lines Source: (IRENA) [16].

3.1.4.3- Biomass Energy Traditionally, Yemen is famous for being an agricultural country, which is the major sector of the country’s economy. “Traditional” biomass energy in Yemen is used in the conventional method for cooking and heating purposes without wood processing and flue gas treatment.

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The use of inefficient stoves further exacerbates the health and environmental problem. The most commonly used stove is the three-stone open fire called “Massad” and half enclosed called “Tanoor” Appx. D.

Figure 22: Yemen waste composition and Aden dumpsite [23].

The above figure shows that the majority of waste is organic origin. Organic waste is a biological biodegradable material that comes from plant or animal. It can be broken to other useful gases (bio carriers) such as methane CH4, hydrogen H2 or C02 using fermentation, gasification or other conversion methods. This eventually can be used for cooking or electricity generation. The picture on the right shows the waste crisis in Aden dumpsite called Ber Al Na’ama. “It is a resource rather than a trash”. Estimated analysis for biomass: For example, if we take the garbage waste that is picked up by the garbage trucks on a daily basis in Aden city which occupies more than 800 thousand residents, this will be approximated by 500 tons of trash (Daily waste generation in Yemen was estimated to be 0.55 – 0.65 kg per capita in urban areas [23] so average of 0.6kg. This trash can be delivered to specialized digesters to produce biogas which is composed of 60% methane (CH4) and 40% carbon dioxide (CO2). For every ton of waste, we estimate to get an amount of 50 m3 of biogas [24]. So, 500 tons of trash will be capable of producing nearly 2500 m3 of biogas every day from the garbage in Aden. This amount is equivalent to 15,000 KWh (1 cubic meter is 6 kwh [25]). Checking the electric bills, I found that our average use of electricity every day is 5-7 KWh. So, the average use of electricity for a Yemeni house is 6 KWh/day. Therefore, the amount of electricity produced using biogas energy in Aden city alone will power nearly 2500 houses. To conclude the renewable part, the following chart summarizes the renewable energy sources potential in Yemen , considering only areas with high potential of generation, conducted by a study

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2014

the

ministry

electricity

and

energy

[26].

3.2- Transport Through the 1950s, Yemen's transportation system consisted of a few primitive mud tracks connecting the larger towns. Then, in 1961, technicians from China completed a 224-km road between the capital Sana'a and Al-Hudaydah port city, the Yemeni first asphalt highway. Seven years later, the US finished the 386-km highway linking Sana, Ta'izz, and Al-Mukha; the USSR completed a road from Ta'izz to Al-Hudaydah in 1969. Other paved roads extend from Sana to Ma'rib, from San'a to Sa'idah, from Ta'izz to At-Turba, from the San'a-Ta'izz highway to Al-Bayda, and from Ta'izz to Aden. By 2002, Yemen had about 69,263 km of roadway, of which only 9,963 km were paved. Passenger cars numbered only 33,600 in 2000, and there were 83,600 commercial vehicles. There are no railways or waterways in Yemen. The only waterway available is from Mukalla city to Socotra island.

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Figure 23: Yemen transportation network [27]

Yemen is a developing country which suffers the consequences of explosions in both human and motorization. There is currently little public transportation (buses) and no rail or metro network but one will also be built. The public transport system in Yemen is very poor and hence, the private transport increase was observed in private transport. Generally, non-motorized transport means to walk or use bicycles. Because of Aden strategic location, most of Yemen’s exports and imports passes through Aden. Aden’s airport, oil refinery, port and free zone need a sophisticated transportation network which allows not only passengers to commute inside the city but also commerce and services to thrive. The already poor road network and the physical damage to it during the war eliminate income earning opportunities for thousands of workers.

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3.2.1- Transport management To fully understand the transport system in Yemen overall, the road network and the transport infrastructure sectors in Yemen are managed by two-line ministries [28]: Ministry of public Works and Highways (MPWH)

Ministry of Transport (MOT)

The Ministry of Transport is responsible for the development of ports, airports, land and sea transportation needs of Yemen. One of the key functions beside sea and air transport is to

The MPWH manages the road network through its HQ office in Sana’a and the regional offices in 18 governorates. It has overall responsibility over the road infrastructure, including its development strategies, expenditure programs, maintenance, and rehabilitation activities. In spite of its large mandate, MPWH is also involved in the development of urban roads

Coordinate with the relevant authorities for developing traffic safety program and improve means of land transportation and to minimize vehicle emissions. it has the authority to make major decisions, such as approving annual budgets, investing in new facilities and equipment for the sub- agencies working under its authority.

3.2.2- Transport Indicators As mentioned previously the transport sector accounts for 36% of the total primary energy usage. Below are some key indicators regarding the transport sector [9]:

The total share of household expenditure for transport only is increasing incrementally from 16 to 19 %.due to the fluctuation of fuel prices (gasoline and diesel). On the other hand, the motorization rate (person/ vehicles) is decreasing. This doesn’t necessarily indicate less ownership rate but is because of the high population growth compared to vehicles ownership slow pace growth. Also, the final energy intensity of transport sector (toe/ million YR) has increased from 0.684 toe/Million

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RY in 2003 to 0.629toe/Million YR in 2009. This is more likely due the increase in the fuel price and lower GDP rate.

Figure 24: numbers of car in Yemen in 2007 and 2008

3.2.3- Aden Baseline situation According to the Statistical Book of Aden 1990-2000, the length of the road network in Aden in 1999 was equal to 720.37km that are divided between 428 kilometres of asphalted roads and 292 kilometres of non-asphalted roads. The key features of the Aden road network is summarised below: Key features of the road network in Aden •

A skeleton network of four lane divided arterial roads with dual 2 lane carriageways which are in reasonable surface condition;

•

All other roads single carriageways of varying widths, typically 6.5 metres;

•

the roads from the existing Ma'alla port gate are narrow, congested single carriageway roads leading to a two-lane dual carriageway. This dual carriageway links to the main arterial network leading to the other centres of Aden and beyond.

•

It is estimated to be more than 80,000 registered vehicles in Aden.

•

The public transport fleet is composed of an abundance of old low-capacity vehicles accounting for a large share of traffic, which is an inefficient way to use limited road space.

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All junctions are predominantly of the roundabout type. traffic congestion is observed at a number of locations in Aden. These occurred usually in the morning and before 15:00 hours at the following strategic junctions: Municipal District

Junction Name

Location and Strategic Importance

Sira Mansoura

Crater Caltex

Ma’ala

Port

Busy commercial district leading to old centre of Crater Important for the access to the free zone area as well to the Governorates of Lahj and Abyan Access of vehicle trucks and goods to and from the commercial port of Aden

Ma’ala

Ma’ala road

Busy commercial street leading to passenger port and to Crater and Khormaksar

The following diagram explains the mode of transport in Aden extracted from Ministry of transport annual report 2013[29], the following organization is also similar to other cities in Yemen including the capital Sanaa.

Figure 25: Aden mode of transport

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3.2.4- Aden transport network The road hierarchy is shown in figure 26 is divided into primary and highways typically 2 lanes in each direction and collector roads (green) which link highways to arterial roads. Traffic pressures and transit demands in Aden have increased in tandem with population growth. Conventional traffic control devices such as signs, road marking and traffic signals are generally sparse. Traffic signing is restricted to occasional and inconsistent intersection control by use of give way and stop signs together with occasional use of speed limit signs and signage to control heavy vehicle movement for particular roads where they are banned. The increasing development of the city will Figure 26: Aden road network [30] require additional and more sophisticated traffic control measures. These are likely to include traffic signals with directional signs and; other road safety furniture. Since the road network is closely related to the land use, the following table summarizes the land use, landcover and road network in each focused district. (legend at the end of the table)

Road map

Land use-landcover

A-Sira (crater)

Name of focused district

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C-Alamaala B- Khormaksar D-Altawhi 3.2.4- social contraints

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3.2.5- Road issues Road issues can be summarized inn the following table: Issue

Description

Road planning and budgeting

According to the world bank, About 90% of Ministry of Public Works and Highways (MPWH) budget is allocated for the road sector. Sustainable development plans shall be considered.

Road safety

Road Safety, Yemen in general has one of the poorest traffic safety records in the world with 5,200 deaths every year on the road according to world bank Group report. The rapid urbanization growth in vehicle ownership and the emergence of dangerous driving behaviors contributed to increase in road accidents

Institutional and human resources issues

Institutional issues; MPWH needs to develop a larger role and responsibility given their capability.

Road maintenance

Road maintenance is being funded by Road maintenance Fund (RMF). The available funding is still insufficient (US$40 million) a year. The road is damaged by improper construction methods and overloading which accelerates deterioration. Vehicle load controls shall be implemented.

3.2.6- Social constraints Social norms are a huge constraint to womenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s accessibility compared to males especially at the outskirts of the downtown. The combination of social constraints and low economic resources result in a low female access to private and intermediary means of transport. Some women discomfort sitting next to male strangers on public transport, it is possible to assign a seating area with priority access for women. The following figures focuses on the social aspect of transport and were built on surveys in Aden.

3.3- Constraints and possibilities

Figure 27: Use of transport means by gender Survey responses â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Planning my city smartlyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;

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Most interviewees use transport services in the morning, due to work and education schedules. Because of the difference of their roles, men and women have different schedules. In the morning and afternoons, men tend to travel more, while women travel more in the evenings. Also, females tend to go out from 3pm to 9pm for shopping and family visits. On the other hand, Males gather after lunch that’s from around 1pm to 6pm to chat and chew khat in a form of group gathering either in public or private spaces. Other figures concerning the social constraints are in Appx. F, and G. Lastly, based on the mentioned data, the rapid increase in Motorization rate in Yemen and especially in Aden leads to Traffic congestion, accidents and casualties. Thus, it is necessary to undertake various studies to address this problem. One of these studies was the shift of transportation mode from private car to public transportation in Yemen. The shift is surely dependent on public transportation’s strategies attempt to decrease the travel time, cost, convenience, safety and traveler habits. By identifying and understanding the factors likely to encourage the shift, a model for mode selection can be developed.

4- Constraints and possibilities The table below gives an overview of Aden’s strength (possibilities) and weaknesses (constraints) in each sector. Possibilities

•

Energy

• • • •

Transport

• • • • •

Constraints

Promote and scaling up renewable energy (solar and wind) programs as the country’s both economic and technical potential is high. Transition to natural Gas for electricity production rather than Petroleum, including distillate and residual fuel oil (mazut). (Implementing gas-to-power policy) Incorporate existing isolated renewable energy owned by individuals to the national grid and introduce the idea of smart grids. Open the Yemeni electricity market to foreign and private investors for generation, transmission and distribution.

•

Switch to public transportation mode from private cars needs improving Public transportation system in the city Promote diversification of transport modes (Multimodal split) and optimize the transport Promote bike and car sharing programs and Pedestrianize streets for walking. Impose traffic regulations, build road tolls and increase paid parking. Quantification and predication of people flow, and areas will help develop strategic plan for mobility Acquiring surrounding areas from the downtown and set transitoriented development plan for transportation before urban sprawl.

• •

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• • • •

The geopolitical unrest since 2011 has limited the data availability for these years. Data sources are not easy to find. Moreover, some data is considered secret with many discrepancies. oil products are heavily subsidized which isn’t sustainable. The subsidies reached around US$2.7 Billion in 2014 making it hard for renewables to thrive. Financial constraints are the most challenging. It can be overcome through sustainable development plan and smart governance Fast population growth rate and lack of institutions work mechanism. In addition to the lack of legal and regulatory frameworks to embrace the implementation of such projects and coordination Weak local government capabilities Local infrastructure networks are poorly maintained, critically overloaded and do not meet increasing demands. Poor Road Planning and Budgeting and maintenance mechanism. shortage of qualified and experienced engineers, supervisors and skilled workmen institutional organization and corruption road expansion is difficult due to uncontrolled urbanization

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5- Mitigation plan (phase 3) Because of the strained financial situation in Yemen generally, applying modern technological solutions in both the transport or energy sectors won’t only be financially costly but also difficult to be adopted by people socially and easily in the short term i.e. introducing modern solutions for transport such as electric vehicles or building a tram network isn’t feasible. Most of the international organizations’ recommendations emphasized on restricting each agency roles (governance side) and applying cost effective sustainable solutions. Thus, a mitigation plan shall reduce the negative impacts to the urban systems caused by war and set long term goals for future. In this report, various feasible approaches will be discussed comparing them to environmental, economical and sociological parameters.

5.1- Energy decentralization large projects and investments in the field of renewable energy can be evolutionary not only in Aden but also Yemen. Distributed generation method (decentralization) can meet the energy needs of rural and urban areas. Renewable energy technology in recent times is penetrating rapidly in Yemen. This research will present some potential solutions the problems of Aden’s electric power sector by using renewables. As discussed in section 3.1, the current energy practices isn’t only costly but also not meeting the minimum load demand (winter period). To generate the available power of 220MW, Public Electricity Corporation “PEC” indicates in its report it uses the following: • •

Total Diesel fuel consumed (liters) for electricity generation in Aden in 2018: 408,643,204 Total HFO fuel consumed (liters) for electricity generation in Aden in 2018: 109,379,318

Given the prices of fuel mentioned in section (3.1.2) and an average consumption of ≈ 0.23-0.3 liter/kwh → the cost of electricity generation is 1 million USD per day in Aden. This number is stated even higher (1.5m USD) according to the minister of electricity announcement in July/2018. Furthermore, most of the strategies taken by the government don’t mention the environmental side, particularly CO2 emissions, but rather increasing efficiency of the power plants by replacing existing parts of the power generation plants. The figures below (29,30) shows the CO2 emissions in Yemen according to IEA [11]. It can be concluded that Yemen is not contributing a lot into the anthropogenic GHG emissions but stands highly vulnerable to climate change‐related impacts because of its fragile socio‐ economic development and inadequate adaptive capacity. Both the transport and the electricity

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generation comprise the majority of emissions (3 MT CO2 each). Since there is no specific data in Aden about emissions, according to [30], burning diesel emits 0.27 kgCO2 / kWh â&#x2C6;´ 1832GWH (total energy produced in Aden in 2018) x 0.27 x 106 = 494640 Ton Co2/ year

Figure 30: Total C02 emissions in Yemen (1990-2017)

Figure 30: Total CO2 emissions by sector in Yemen 1990-2017

Until the moment, there has not been a mitigation plan proposed by the government (in exile), yet there are some local efforts to propose solar solutions by regional NGOs. The following different strategies are presented, and one will be detailed in phase 4 of this report.

5.1.1- Promote PV programs and link existing distributed solar systems to the grid. With the fragile energy situation, Adeni residents have already switched to solar PV, inverters and battery storage. The inverter charges the batteries on grid electricity during night and PV+ battery discharge during the day. A simple simulation performed by global atlas [31], of a small residential house in Khormaksar, Aden (focused district), with PV installed module capacity of 250Wp which is the typical capacity used. The results show a great annual power output of 430 kWh per year and global radiation of 2286 kwh/m2. (other supporting tables are in Appx. H) Instead of building large power plants and securing subsidized fuel, there are

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around 30- 50% of the total residents in Aden who owns solar panels (typical installed capacity ranges from 50w to 1KW). These distributed generators can be connected through the introduction of microgrids. Reforms and different legislative policies to institutions, owners and suppliers can be done to further increase solar power. A Peer to peer trading mechanism using blockchain can be set to promote clean production and trading platform. There are many supporting policies to be implemented to further support the solar power: •

•

Trade policy: o Lowering trade tariffs, taxes, and customs for importing renewables. o Monitor PV panels fluctuation in price and set penalties on violators. incentive policy: o The introduction of financial incentives to qualified PV owners to boost clean energy production in Aden. awareness raising o Raising awareness through campaigns on the various sustainable advantages of renewables will reduce dependence on fossil and accelerate transition. stakeholder’s cooperation: o The ministry of electricity “MOE” in Aden has a limited human personnel capacity to manage everything. Thus, it is a must to strengthen different stakeholders’ groups (private sectors) to develop comprehensive renewable energy strategy. This can include building a database on technologies, job training and highly qualified technicians, develop a process to systematically review issues.

5.1.2- increase existing power stations efficiency. A- fuel switching: Yemen has an abundance of natural gas (section 3.1) which can cover the local demand and still export outside the country unlike oil. Natural gas is also less harmful to the environment compared to heavy oils considering the emissions factor gCO2/kwh [32]. Thus, switching from diesel and residual fuel oil “Mazut” to natural gas in power generation would be a good step for generation stabilization. To promote fuel transitions, gradual phasing in different fuel prices and sequencing them can be an appropriate step. Also, removing subsidies on specific Petro products particularly (diesel and mazut) and moving subsides progressively to natural gas.

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B- Combined cycle, Regenerative cycle or CHP: Instead of using single conventional single cycle power plants where efficiency ranges from 20% to 40%, many configurations can be adjusted to increase the overall efficiency of the existing power plants. A combined cycle uses two different turbines. High pressure turbines are the primary turbine and part of the steam exhaust is sent to power another low steam turbine. Cogeneration on the other hand can produce both heat and electricity. The heat can be recaptured and sent back to steam turbine to generate more electricity for the same amount of fuel.

Figure 31: cogeneration Vs. separate cycle efficiency scheme [33].

C- Energy efficiency (demand - side management). The demand side management is an important aspect to consider in the primary stage of planning in order to decrease the peak load and flatten the demand curve to off-peak hours. Below are some methods to introduce: o Introduction and widespread penetration of efficient compact fluorescent lighting and efficient refrigeration in the residential sector. o Load shifting and valley filling are some of the techniques to mitigate peak loads. By applying DSM to electricity systems, it provides significant economic, reliability and environmental benefits.

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5.1.3- Deployment of decentralized mix-renewable energy The energy sent to distribution network in Yemen has reached 6513.1 GWh in December 2012. However, the energy sold is 4165.9 GWh, while the total loss ratio in the same period reached of 36 %. These losses is so high and impose to seek decentralized methods. Aden has a vast land of desert to the west (Alburyaqah district). This area can be utilized to install ground- mounted largescale PV panels or concentrated solar power.

Figure 32: Proposed solar power farm

In Kenya, Garissa Solar Photovoltaic Power Plant. A 50MW solar plant acquire an area of approximately 1km2 and cost over $120m [34]. According to solar global atlas, a 50MWp plant in shown area in Aden, can yield to 90 GWh of energy which can contribute to small portion (5%) of demand with estimated cost around 35m$ to 50m$. On the other hand, wind potential as discussed earlier is high given the nearby location to the sea (open spaceâ&#x2020;&#x2019; less obstruction) where normally wind velocities and frequencies (discrete probability) are relatively higher than on shore. A provisional 50MW (5MW x 4) solar plant can be implemented on the top of the mountain or offshore. A deeper wind behavior analysis shall be investigated further by calculating the wind

Figure 33: Proposed wind power plant

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velocities and transfer it to power curve and cumulative probability density function.

The upfront capital cost (CAPEX) is high for wind turbines as any renewable technology. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, 84% of the total cost is for the upfront cost including towers and installation. Wind turbines prices have declined significantly since their peak in 2007/2008. The installed cost currently ranges from 1700USD/KW to 2450USD/KW for onshore wind farms which depends on the country location and number of units ordered [35]. So the 20MW x 2000USD x 1000= 40m USD 40m USD x 16% →6.4mUSD (other cost) ∴ Estimated total cost is 46.4m USD This corresponds to the same cost of 47 days to generate electricity in Aden currently.

Figure 34: wind turbine cost breakdown

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5.2- Transport diversification The introduction of other forms of transportation such as metro or tram or electric vehicles in the first stage would not only be costly but also unfeasible given the small area of Aden city and affordability aspect. Thus, Aden needs a legal framework to regulate the existing buses, improve their outreach lines and introduce low cost mode through bike sharing programs.

5.2.1- Promote bike sharing Aden has a total area of 740 km2. Yet, the populated area (4 focused districts) represents only 88 km2. On the other side, Adeni people, Teenagers particularly commute with bikes or walking. Bicycle share is a network of bicycles and automated kiosks that allows users to make short trips (1-5km) quickly, conveniently and affordably. Bicycle share is a component of a strong transportation network. To diversify the mobility modal, an introduction of affordable bike sharing system can be implemented with the Public-Private partnership. This will alleviate congestion and avoid enlarging costly infrastructure projects as bikes only require little space and reduce pollution. The distance from Altawahi (focused district) to the west to Khormaksar district to the northern east is 10.7km (longest distance). That’s around 48min by bike supposing bike speed is 15km/h

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A proposal to create and distribute 10 bike stations across focused districts in Aden with 20 bikes in each station (total 200 bike) will limit the traffic congestion especially in the old center of Crater According to OBIS project in Europe .[48] , • average Bikes per 10,000 inhabitants → 14.8, • average Stations per 10,000 inhabitants → 1.5. ∴ focused district inhabitants = 226642, →335.43 bikes and 34 stations. Thus, proposing 200 bikes,10 kiosk for phase 1. According to UNO Transportation Institute in New Orleans, the capital costs for a 200 bike, 20 kiosk system that would be required for a successful start up would cost approximately $1.5 million (depends on design and technology) compared to the cost of infrastructure and other public transit, where costs can run into tens of millions of dollars per km, bicycle share is a very effective use of resources. Distribution and Redistribution is needed in all Bike sharing Systems. Thus it is important to analyze traffic flows before and after implementation and after that to optimize station planning, not only in terms of mobility needs, but also in terms of the redistribution capacity of the system.

5.2.2- Create pedestrian friendly walkways. Change to pedestrian-bicycle-oriented instead of car-based design to make Aden more Walkable and Bikeable. This includes Landscape Buffers, signs, crossing, green, seating benches, shaded waiting spaces …etc.

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5.2.3- Limit passenger cars and improve public buses Limiting passenger cars can reduce emissions, fuel consumption, congestions, and travel time. As a result, effective strategies are discussed below: A- Energy efficiency: o Introduction of fuel economy standards for light and heavy-duty vehicles (10% and 15% improvement in fuel economy gradually). o Implement scrappage policy for old less fuel-efficient vehicles. o The above policies shall first target personal cars to limit congestion in the first place and to promote the use of public buses. B- Road tolls: o Introduction of Expressway network privately funded through Build–operate– transfer (BOT) financing mechanism. This strategy can be applied to connect Aden city to neighboring cities to increase accessibility and trade. C- Paid parking spaces : o Creating more parking spaces won’t solve traffic congestion, therefore, enforcing paid parking tolls in specific zones in Aden can reduce traffic problems, increase revenues and improve user convenience. D- Restricted entry zones: In Brussels it is called Zero emissions zones (LEZ) and in Florence it is Limited Traffic Zone (ZTL), both practices are essential to develop and adapt inside congested hubs in Aden while providing users with sustainable modes such as bike programs.

5.2.4- improve public buses Based on the number of registered private vehicles in Aden (80,000) and bearing in mind that average family size of around six per household, with two-three trips per day associated to each household, there would be some 450,000 trips per day made by the population. On this basis, some 75-80% of trips would currently be made by public transport. Aden population 900,000/6= 150,000 → 150,000x2 (or 3 trip) = 300,000 to 450,000 trip /day. → 300,000 to 450,000 trip /day x 80% = 240,000 to 360,000 trip/day. A developed future transportation policy will need to incorporate significant support for public transportation system improvements to cater for the anticipated 1.9 million population of Aden and curb down private ownership of vehicles. Considering the current and potential future low average household incomes, emphasis will need to be placed on providing, then enhancing a comprehensive public transport system in Aden, in

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order to facilitate access for the majority of the city’s population to job opportunities and leisure and recreation pursuits. The proposal to improve existing public buses are based on the following pillars: A- Develop outreach routes: o Develop outreach routes and expand network for public buses to enhance accessibility and competency. o Adapt an affordable fare that corresponds to people financial ability by relying on incentives of using public transport. B- Stakeholders cooperation: o Considering the current and potential future low average household incomes, emphasis will need to be placed on providing, then enhancing a comprehensive public transport system in Aden, in order to facilitate access for the majority of the city’s population to job opportunities and leisure and recreation pursuits. C- Light Rapid Transit (LRT) and feeder bus routes o Considering the current and potential future low average household incomes, emphasis will need to be placed on providing, then enhancing a comprehensive public transport system in Aden, in order to facilitate access for the majority of the city’s population to job opportunities and leisure and recreation pursuits.

6- Promote PV and link distributed generation (phase 4) As discussed in 5.1.1 about promoting PV. First there are many constraints and barriers facing the solar revolution in Aden which can be summarized as follows: Qualification and quality: Yemen generally speaking is relatively new entrant in the renewable energy field (since 2014) when solar penetration has raised exponentially (Appx C). The solar sector has emerged from war and is hard to prepare technicians and engineers rapidly to fill this gap. Solar systems are dependent on solar radiation, module orientation, tilt angle, materials, supporting equipment’s and compatibility, ….etc. sizing and installing the system isn’t an easy task and needs deep analysis of house demand profile and monitoring to extract the optimum power. Thus, dimensioning the solar equipment requires knowledge, skills, and multiple simulations rather than following thumb rules from the salesperson or unqualified technician.

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Most citizens face a drop in the overall performance after only six months of installation because proper cleaning and other measures don’t take place.

Figure 35: fake solar equipment in Aden. The lack of maintenance skills and quality control leads to dangerous malfunction of solar equipment [36]

Market and finance mechanism: Since Yemen solar businesses are limited to certain importers where fixed pricing is usual among business due to lack of market supervision. Prices spikes when there is a large demand. the solar modules are 1/3 higher than international price. Profit margins are higher and import permits are set according to arbitrary basis where bribery is a phenomenon in high profits businesses.

Figure 36 No quality assurance for PV modules (performance certification).[36]

The common way to finance solar PV systems for residential sector in Yemen is through private savings in the form of cash payments. •

Understanding PV supply chain:

Most of the key solar PV system components are imported from Asian manufacturers especially china. The products are either imported from China directly from the factory or through commercial offices. As a result of importation constraints due to the current blockade, the sea ships are required to go to Djibouti for security inspection processes before it can enters Aden port. Thus the delivery time is increased up to 40 days.

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So, the fast delivery option is to ship the products from china to UAE and then it can reach Yemen through land transportation. Recently, due to the foreign currency shortage and increasing transportation costs, many PV business investors switched to retailing from importing. Until now no presence of any specific business models for selling solar PV systems exists (only little initiatives by private banks and NGOs to support solar irrigation systems and commercial activities).

PV prices: Because of the high costs in PV panels, nominal capacity installed varies from 20 Wp to 2KWp for household use. The following is a prices breakdown from several retailers. Note that the prices are approximated and varies according to the quality of the products and currency exchange rate against USD is fluctuating. These do not include the wiring and installations fees.

Figure 37: Cost of PV system for small to large residential use,2018 [37]

It is important to mention that the current Average GDP per capita in Yemen in 2018 is 2285 USD [38].

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Proposed business model for financing: The major obstacle in financing solar PV projects is not the lack of funds as much as it is the guarantee provision that borrowers should provide. Therefore, the following model is to mobilize the financial potential to solve the lack of borrower guarantees. The core idea of the business model relies on renting the PV system directly instead of capital needed to buy the system. The bank buys the system and rents it to the client in installments. The full property is transferred to client when the paid rent balance the initial cost borne by the bank plus an agreed rate.

From Individualism to Collectivism: Yemeni electricity paradigm can be described as centralized public grid where electricity is generated in larger scale power plants (fossil fuels) and then transported via long transmission lines (36% losses). The transition to solar PV among homeowners needs a transition in electrical power grid that support sharing. In the current case, as solar PV systems cover individual demand, equipment's have to be oversized to meet userâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s short-term peak load. A network requires multiple users to flatten the demand peaks. The LOCE can be lowered by combining different users in a local grid which leads to synergies. Thus, the existing capabilities can be used more efficiently. [39]

Figure 38: Illustrations of different connection modes. The swarm grid (microgrid) can be introduced to benefit residents at larger scale. [39]

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Power generation: The penetration of photovoltaic in household are between 30-50%. The number of population is more than 900,000 in Aden The average number of persons per household is 6 persons ∴ the total households is estimated to be 150,000. Taking 40% penetration will result in 60,000 households with PV generation. The average installed capacity is from several 10 Ws to 2 Kw. Thus, we take 500Watt as an average installed capacity per household. That’s 30MW (least estimation) of already installed capacity. ≈ 7% of total installed capacity need. Let’s assume that the operation hours is 8h under nominal conditions as indicated in previous studies. So 30MW x 8h x 365 = 87600MWh/year. The quick calculations show the need to further develop financing mechanisms and training programs for technicians to increase the solar penetration and switch from fossil fuels which will cut off emissions (494640 Ton Co2/ year in Aden) to half. Yet, it is important to mention that the priority is to meet consumption needs in the first place through sustainable low emitting sources then reducing emissions strategies will follow afterwards. Aden if renewable projects are adopted will increase energy security, export the abundant surplus of natural gas and trade its Carbon credits to Saudi Arabia. Lastly, since the Arab spring, Yemen’s civil society has proven resilient despite the complex situation. Avery important strategy is to raise civil society overall awareness and expertise in solar field through activating the role of educational institutions and NGOs which are the most important actors. They can experiment and transfer specialized knowledge and create awareness to support solar penetration. However, slow development pace of the curricula, training facilities and limited funds are challenges to overcome. In few words, Aden needs to make use of the existing structures by a comprehensive program to enhance specialized skills, microgrids formation, increase market competition and most importantly fighting corruption in order to have stable and clean electricity service.

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7- Appendix [A]

Satellite images from 2012 and 2016 [B]

Solar energy resources, Yemen is located within the Sunbelt countries. [C]

Solar electricity generation and installed capacity in Yemen

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[D]

Tanoor stove for bread cooking

Harvesting and transporting wood fuels.

[E]

Aden transport [F]

Constraints faced by road users

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Major security issues identified for women, by gender

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[G]

% Type of roads in Aden

% Quality of roads in Aden

[H]

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