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Missing Persons and Risk of Harm: A Systematic Literature Review Nesha Dixon, PhD Student, Division of Psychology, Abertay University Email: n.dixon1200@abertay.ac.uk
Introduction
Aim
Results
In 2019/20, there were 325,171 missing incidents reported to UK police (UK Missing Persons Unit, 2021). Although most missing persons returned safely within 48 hours, there were 955 fatal outcomes and over 6,500 non-fatal harm outcomes (UK Missing Persons Unit, 2021). As missing person investigations are resource intensive, costing UK police over an estimated £700 million per year (Shalev Greene & Pakes, 2014), police officers are faced with the complex task of risk assessing which missing incidents are most likely to result in harm and where to appoint their resources.
Despite the complex interplay between risk factors and harm outcomes being acknowledged within the literature, no research thus far has synthesised all findings to present a clear depiction of current knowledge within this area.
Characteristics • Literature Type: 46 journal articles, 27 reports, 2 PhD theses, 2 Masters theses, 2 book chapters, 2 unpublished papers • Date range: 1988 – 2021 (65% in last decade) • Country: UK (43), USA (21), Australia (8), Japan (3), Spain (2) • Design: 66.7% Quantitative, 19.8% Mixed-method, 13.6% Qualitative • Population: Adults and Children (31), Adults (24), Children (22), Children and Young adults (4)
Missing Person Risk Assessment Current missing person risk assessment processes adopt a professional judgement approach, where assessments are subjective and rely on police officers using their own knowledge and experience to assign cases into low, medium and high-risk categories (College of Policing, 2016). This common-sense approach is susceptible to biases and inaccuracies, with risk assessments varying based on service length and operational experience (Murray & Thomson, 2010). Research is therefore required to assist with informing evidence-based risk assessment practices in missing person investigations.
Method
Missing Person and Risk Research
Overall Harm Outcomes • Missing adults four times more likely to come to harm than children • Females aged 18 to 64yo at highest risk (Doyle & Barnes, 2020) Fatal Harm Outcomes • Adult males at highest risk overall • •
(Eales, 2017; Newiss, 2006)
Homicide - Females at higher risk (Newiss, 2004)
Suicide - Males, past suicide attempts, out of character (Foy, 2016)
Specific Missing Person Populations • Dementia – older age, duration missing (Bantry White & Montgomery, 2015) • Children - Repeat missing, missing from care, female, risk of CSE, ASD
(Doyle & Barnes, 2020; Biehal & Wade, 1999; Hayden & Shalev-Greene, 2018; McIlwain & Fournier, 2012)
The aim of this systematic literature review is to: • Conduct a comprehensive compilation and synthesis of literature that examines risk factors associated with harm outcomes for missing persons to draw conclusions on the current state of knowledge in this field • Identify gaps in the literature • Provide an initial framework for informing an evidence-based risk assessment tool for missing person investigations
Literature Search • Electronic databases • Manual search of reference lists • Specific journal searching • Exploration of ‘Missing People’ charity website • Contacted authors Literature Selection • Duplicates removed • Title/Abstract screened • Full-text evaluation • Inter-rater reliability (81.25%)
Inclusion Criteria: • Missing persons • Risk factors for harm outcomes • Presents original findings or original point • Academic and grey literature Exclusion Criteria: • Not concerned with the above • Non-English language
Quality Appraisal • AACODS checklist (Tyndall, 2010) • Data Quality: Simple or Allows Complexity
Results Figure 1 Literature identification and selection process flow diagram (adapted from Page et al., 2021).
Quality • All presented valuable findings
Synthesis • In progress
Future Research This systematic literature review is the first stage of a wider PhD project that aims to develop an evidence-based risk assessment tool for missing person cases. Stage 2 will analyse police missing person cases to identify risk indicators for different harm outcomes. Stage 3 will then distribute a mixed-method survey to police officers and staff to evaluate their views on important risk factors to consider in missing person cases. Stage 4 will utilise all findings to develop an evidence-based missing person risk assessment tool, which will then undergo validity testing.
References
Biehal, N., & Wade, J. (1999). Taking a chance? The risks associated with going missing from substitute care. Child Abuse Review, 8(6), 366-376. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-0852(199911/12)8:6<366::AID-CAR582>3.0.CO;2-G College of Policing (2016). Major Investigation and public protection: Missing Persons Risk Assessment. https://www.app.college.police.uk/app-content/major-investigation-and-public-protection/missing-per sons/risk-assessment/ Doyle, R., & Barnes, G. C. (2020). Targeting missing persons most likely to come to harm among 92,681 cases reported to Devon and Cornwall police. Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing, 4(3), 160177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41887-020-00051-2 Eales, N. (2017). Risky business? A study exploring the relationship between harm and risk indicators in missing adult incidents. [PhD thesis, University of Portsmouth]. https://pure.port.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/11009886/Naomi_Eales_Thesis_final_copy_Risky_Busines s.pdf Foy, S. (2016). A Profile of Missing Persons: Some Key Findings for Police Officers. In S. Morewitz, & C. Sturdy Colls (Eds.), Handbook of Missing People (1st ed., pp.7-18). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40199-7_2 Hayden, C., & Shalev-Greene, K. (2018). The blue light social services? Responding to repeat reports to the police of people missing from institutional locations. Policing & Society, 28(1), 45-61. https://doi.org/10.1080/10439463.2016.1138475 McIlwain, L., & Fournier, W. (2012). Lethal outcomes in Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) wandering/elopement. National Autism Association. https://nationalautismassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Lethal-Outcomes-In-Autism-Spec trum-Disorders_2012.pdf Murray, J., & Thomson, M. E. (2010). Clinical judgement in violence risk assessment. Europe’s Journal of Psychology, 6(1), 128-149. https://doi.org/10.5964/ejop.v6i1.175 Newiss, G. (2006). Understanding the risk of going missing: estimating the risk of fatal outcomes in cancelled cases. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management, 29(2), 246-260. https://doi.org/10.1108/13639510610667655 Newiss, G. (2004). Estimating the risk faced by missing persons: A study of homicide victims as an example of an outcome-based approach. International Journal of Police Science and Management, 6(1), 27–36. https://doi.org/10.1350/ijps.6.1.27.34460 Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., Shamseer, L., Tetzlaff, J. M., Akl, E. A., Brennan, S. E., Chou, R., Glanville, J., Grimshaw, J. M., Hróbjartsson, A., Lalu, M. M., Li, T., Loder, E. W., Mayo-Wilson, E., McDonald, S., …Moher, D. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ, 372(71), 1-9. Tyndall, J. (2010). AACODS Checklist. Flinders University. http://dspace.flinders.edu.au/dspace/ UK Missing Persons Unit (2021). Missing Persons Data Report 2018/19. National Crime Agency.
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