HUNGARY’S PRACTICAL BUSINESS BI-WEEKLY SINCE 1992 | WWW.BBJ.HU
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BUSINESS JOURNAL BUDAPEST
VOL. 25. NUMBER 1
3
JANUARY 13 – JANUARY 26, 2017
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Budapest Business
13 – january Journal | january
26, 2017
ial Radeport Spec The Year Ahe 8|
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SPECIAL REPORT 2.2 3.2 1.3 2.4 2.0 0.4 Takarékbank 2017
BBJ compilation
SOURCE Source:
2017 2016 (NGM) government Hungarian 2017 2016
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2.1 3.6 0.8 1.7 2.1 0.4 ank Takarékb 2017
its 2017 next raised2017 estimating rate 2016 last December, 2017. average inflationit year’s annual GKI 2.3% rate up from the ry committee 2018, that at 2.4%, 2017 in September. Forof 3%, He said view at a parliamenta 2016 projected December. hearing early economic growth could the bank expects inflation m target. medium-ter the country’s much as 4% in 2017. ed which is its as like the London-bas speed up by the rate The MNB, said such expectations ly now expects While some and unrealistical analysts, alsotarget early in 2018, ZSÓFIA CZIFRA are ungrounded economic site to reach that various as it predicted online optimistic, analysts and instead of mid-year, said the governor’s different As usual, most earlier. portfolio.hu at all groundless. bodies project a few months Economy Ministry is not government the Hungarian output, forecast for The National , industrial rate will National trajectories Construction and foreign GKIprojects the inflation year 2017, with the seeing economy for (NGM) increase this accelerate to 1.6% next 2018. Also domestic consumption are all set to Economy Ministryfor the country. 2017 to 3.1% in investment low basis. last year’s 2016 at before rising from a very the rosiest future ministry, released some higher the year, forecast paired with according to deficit is In its updated last year, it ing budget of All of the above, and infrastructural EU-conform 2.1% and 2.3% the sixthe end of December the faster public spending the fact that 2.4% target, forecast at between t could make Matolcsy emphasizes the original developmen wage agreement GDP, below recently revised predicted by on on year minimum growth impact GDP last material it will depend in but above the announced will have a mic trends possible. However, factors, too, the 1.7%-of-GDP target said the deficit in higher and internal Hungary’s macroecono The NGM years, resulting ministry external The higher growth rate November. in 2017 from the coming does not rise to 2.4% fall to 1.2% site warns. for 2016, the if this year 2.1% ratio would growth. While gradually is only possibleeconomic recession rather conservativefrom where it would projected a bring a global output in Hungary, l revising it down by 2020. this internationa growth rate, of 2.5%, for and agricultural high. The three leading will review its earlier forecast its figures show agencies like 2016, remains next credit rating year and the optimism. In 2017, rating a combined of Hungary’s debttimes in 2017. First, n will a great deal in Hungary Higher inflatio total of seven Standard & Poor’s economic growthit says, and will index 24, on February review, and then consumer price pick up to 4.1%, to 4.3% in 2018. several Although the publish its territory accelerate will Fitch slow further in August. May 12 liven fell into negative it would gradually do so again it started to in 2020, From there dates are and to 3.7% times in 2016, mainly due to rising its Ratings’ review 10, while Moody’s to 3.8% in 2019 up in the fall, the whole year of says. In preparing and November scheduled its calculated the ministry y oil prices. For the ministry unanimousl 3, July Investors Services projections, s for March tax rate and 2016, projections investigation 20. However, that at 0.4%. However, with a 9% corporate from the prices set inflation revenue 7 and Octoberthat any of the rating food and oil unchanged bank levy from 2017 this year, with global y doesn’t mean actually change rise further extraordinar will expected to higher inflation. As 2020. to country. agencies for the through Bank of Hungary 2017 will see and internal factors – their debt ratings has a stable The National optimistic than raise – both external more Currently Hungary minimum wage (MNB) was regarding 2016 GDP all three institutions, such as the index, internationa l outlook with being a year of its the ministry it at 2.8% in will affect the revised their inflation so, with 2016 could easily be a growth, puttingReport, unchanged analysts have upgrades, 2017 outlooks. latest Inflation ed report released forecasts recently. year of improving London-bas latest from the previous According to earlier. In the AmericaDecember, analysts with Bank of three months price values: How published last forecasts the consumer document, Comparative see the yearend it growth Merrill Lynch, will be 2.6%, the MNB raised and next. For in Hungary than various parties and their year points higher raised index for both this figures for s2016, 3.6% growth, 0.2 percentage forecast. It also for 2017. Source: months 2017, it predicts prediction in its previous country’s economic foreseen threegrowth n. the from the 3% BBJ compilatio below the predicts that puts the 2018 probably be earlier, and growth will and the central bank’s ’s rate at 3.7%. György Matolcsy government MNB Governor more optimistic even expressed an
ion
2.1 4.1 2.4 2.83 3.6 2.1-2. 1.8-2 1.6 .2 2.0 1.5-23.0 0.4 0.4 2.4 1.9 0.4 2.0
Takarékbank 2017 2016
at
2.1 4.1 0.8 1.7 2.1 2.4 0.43 2.1 2.1-2. 0.4 1.6
infl
SOURCE Source:
Takarékbank 2017 , and will come to 2016 expectations 2.5%. Stanley ent (NGM) around time, Morgan n governm
same for 2017 At the2017 Hungaria György projections 2016 raised its GDP 2.5% to 2.9%. J.P. MNB Governor d an from the previousalso expect a 2.9% Matolcsy expresse c Morgan analysts year, with the this optimisti GDP growth getting close to the 3% even more ntary by MNB inflation rate target of theBBJ compilation m view at a parliame early Source: analysts medium-ter SOURCE of 2018. All hearing the first quarterMNB has room for committee it agree that the He said that but say that December. monetary loosening, tional tools. economic non-conven (NGM) entdeploy the country’s target n governmwill speed Hungaria 2017-term Medium growth could also in as 4% 2016 central bank forecast MNB Hungary’s up by as much inflation
GD gr P ow th
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higher Hungar y, analysts ent and governm broadly GKI sources 2017 2016 agree.
BBJ compilation
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will This year4.1 2.1 bring faster 3 ic2.4 econom 2.1-2. growth, a bigger 1.6 deficit and 0.4 inflation to
at
(NGM) government 2017 2016
infl
SOURCE Source:
Hungarian
Kopint-Tárki 2017 2016 Kopint-Tárki 2017 2016
2.2 3.2 2.4 2.2 1.3 3.2 2.4 1.3 2.0 0.4 0.4 2.0
The Year Ahead SPECIAL REPORT
Postive Real Estate Indicators to continue The conventional wisdom is that the positive fundamentals of supply and demand will continue to attract developers and investors. But Hungary still lags behind regional peers Poland and Czech Republic.9
Looking Backward and Ahead Top managers, investors and board members all pick geographical instability as the risk with the greatest weight for their businesses. But what are the real risks, and how might we cope? 10
All Smiles on the Economic Front?
SOCIALITE
New Year’s Resolutions Taking a pragmatically Hungarian approach to setting achievable goals for 2017. All while chewing on a piece of pork.20
BBJ_2501_news.indd 1
FOCUS
Now and Then Retrospective: 1956
MTI/Tamás Kovács
SPECIAL REPORT
AL R SPECI
T EPOR
Minister for National Economy Mihály Varga is happy about the prospects for economic growth this year. But are market analysts as upbeat as he is? 8
2016 was a landmark year for Hungary, marking the 60th anniversary of the 1956 Uprising. In the 1st of a two-part series, we look at the background to, and outbreak of, the Revolution.11
NEWS
Industry Failed to Boost Growth There was some industrial output growth recorded in November, but in truth it represented little more than stagnation. 3
2017. 01. 12. 0:35