Budapest Business Journal 23/05

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Report 3Special st is behind us

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wor Banking 2015: The

SPECIAL REPORT:

provisions Do you think the of in the Memorandum signed Understanding to will bring stability with the EBRD the market? received, was very well the A: I think it that followed by parent based on the actions units and their banks, both local actually welcomed this banks. All of them obviously they should. development and some improvement in on I think, based to cooperate and you the mood, willingness to the market, more commitment going forward. Still, can expect stability while these are very that, the I would caution they are only important changes, road. the of beginning the Do you expect continue government to of building its ownership banks? to trace a very difficult . A: Well, it is the state’s slate as of 2015’ motivation for ‘will have a clean real financial don’t think these Péter Felcsuti: Banks I bank purchases. justified by business be Clearly purchases could some revenue, and or profitability. moves considerations on the banks to generate can use to actually motivated are politically the these “There is pressure bank because a And the government. able to say “we is one product that now be an increase in the by obviously lending government is set out to assume there will what we had will have achieved do that. I would therefore albeit a modest one.” the government in do”, I do not think active banks, aggressive or in the lending portfolio of be particularly is a hole opening making more stake acquisitions one thing, their customers. There but if there industry. For The that, by now, probably in the retail business, is more banking not very good. A: I would assumeleft the worst behind up grow, that growth experiences are has recently started or is room to in the corporate banking the banks have to be an industry in Hungary most of the banks, to be of what it means Bank, CHRISTIAN KESZTHELYI them. In that sense,the banks, will have a likely rather than retail. to feel the bite of think of Széchenyi huge assume sector perhaps even all investor. Just been to make 2015. So I would better have of need as increase There the an slate clean Without the the MKB bank: Can we expect would be a much would 2014 believe that 2015? that the year 2015 the previous ones. Therefore, I FX provisions, year in lending in than so. Partly losses. be very cautious. year for banks have been a profitable A: Yes, I think at all−time government will has been banks whole a lending for banks? some as that corporate years, sector because Are Do you think in the last few ING and It is A: I think the banking the market, lows in Hungary 2008, and chiefly like UniCredit, out in the black. banks will leave able to avoid would have come local units to that the banking specifically since Commerzbank government’s by selling their owners, in important to remember homogeneous in FX loan conversions? due to the Hungarian or private longer the pain of the the banking business. government in ones? the industry industry is no the banking they intervention are changing, and we 2015? Any guesses as to which for them, as that, from 2010, as far as profitability, happening: GE It is very easy loans, with the Now things the positive impact A: As you see, things are two decades, was split into twoit comes to the larger A: have to note dealt in FX Bank after UniCredit also central bank’s lending facility, sold Budapest especially when half of those banks, never even before of UniCredit. a of the helps banks to Citibank entered the market to be exception exposure in FX loans, but banks: Roughly in a modest way, There banks have different them, continued have speaking, which, their lending portfolio. them. Indeed, these four or five of four or five of them did are leaving. minor one. Generally away increase banks to generate motivations, but still they for good profitable, while losses. So probably it very been able to keep the is pressure on the obviously lending One, GE, is leaving local bankinggiving up UniCredit has that continued to make just revenue, and speak about heavy losses use is to can some very Citibank, the bank a from the other, is a is a little bit misleading product that involved in during therefore while of its business in Hungary. This as a whole. big banks were the case of ING and is one do that. I would that this a part the banking industry In an increase in normal phenomenon, yet I believe it easy to actually the last year. that some there would be a problems , they had the road. I think in FX assume of banks, albeit Commerzbank Were there other is not the end of the never participated the lending portfolio leave the Hungarian because they that dragged on sector? find more banks could the modest one. future. They mightlonger mortgage lending. profitability of market in the need to retail market is no to “feel” the banks still 2015 looks that the Hungarianno more opportunities Can we expect A: Absolutely; taxes – I mean these Do you think bank−sector banks sufficient, or offers Hungarian economy the impact of continue paying better for corporate which are sometimes The though they or They to make money. tax cuts, even extraordinary taxes, than retail banks? I believe terribly lucrative So “unorthodox” taxes. 2016? currently not called sectoral or that are independent of business. couple of years, don’t begin untilThis is partly about is for banks to do A: In the next risk− will probably are basically taxes banks’ promising of banks; instead A: I think so. and long−term corporate banking than retail partly about the simple, medium− can dictate whether the actual profitabilityon the basis of the that psychology and So I expect more opportunities calculations very the lesson they need to increase revenue. the tax is calculated sheet total. So the see of parent reward pull out – unless they have a For one thing, sacred as in the attitudes banks apparently banks’ 2009 balance drag with banking. that nothing is some changes continue to be a Milan. You can strong commitment like Erste have learnt is taxes obviously or legal protection banks, in Vienna and but that seems to be of the banks. bank a institutions changes, are they as profitability far regard to the some favorable very robust or does, or they K&H, or UniCredit. In other words, against expect is concerned. to be happy here, like well protected in the these are not going Hungarian are not very When can the intervening dramatic. as a whole the government the banks and their very banking sector making between start dealings expect to

National According to the credit Bank of Hungary, this institutions in country had a combined HUF after−tax loss of but 446.5 bln in 2014, to this year is expected Felcsuti, be better. Péter a Hungarian economist the who was formerly unit head of the local and of Raiffeisen Bank Hungarian leader of the n, Banking Associatio Budapest the to spoke about Business Journal the current situation, for and future prospects banking in Hungary.

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VOL. 23. NUMBER 05

MARCH 13, 2015 – MARCH 26, 2015

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Buda crash

A depositor waits outside Quaestor as crowds gather to withdraw funds from the financial firm. The recent closure of the Buda−Cash brokerage apparently triggered a run at Quaestor, as well as other fallout. 6

SPECIAL REPORT

BUSINESS

BUSINESS

Banks in 2015: Nowhere to go but up

Sunday closings irk retail property firms

PwC’s survey of local CEOs finds optimism

We interview a banking expert who says the worst is over for the local industry. With FX headaches last year’s news, and tax cuts coming next year, we’re told to expect some stability for now. 13

Most larger shops, though few Budapest malls, will have to close Sundays as of March 15. It’s not just shoppers and store owners who are upset: Owners of retail property also question the new law. 9

While many of the 170 Hungarian CEOs interviewed said they don’t expect growth in Hungary, or the global economy, an overwhelming majority predicted that their own firms would prosper. 10


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