A Two-Front War Round the Corner?
A maritime perspective on whether China and Pakistan are acting either in collaboration or collusion with each other, in waging war against India An armed conflict with China might lead India into a two-front war scenario, involving China and Pakistan, observes Admiral RK Dhowan, PVSM, AVSM, YSM (Retd), the former Chief of the Naval Staff of the Indian Navy. Currently the chairperson of Society for Aerospace Maritime and Defence Studies (SAMDeS), Admiral Dhowan stresses the need for India to maintain a high deterrent posture by the armed forces, and calls for allocating adequate budgetary resources to ensure a timely development of the Navy as a credible and balanced force. Admiral RK Dhowan PVSM, AVSM, YSM (Retd) Former Chief of Indian Navy & Chairperson, SAMDeS How ready you think India’s Armed Forces are in countering the challenges being posed by China’s PLA across the LAC? What are the chances for such localised conflicts in attaining the dimensions of a battle? While the Indian Army was engaged in giving a befitting response to flexing of muscles by the PLA (Army) across the LAC, the aircraft and helicopters of the Indian Air Force were deployed from the forward bases and maintained in a high state of alert. The assets of the Indian Navy, in terms of the P-8I Long-Range Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft, and the MIG29K fighter aircraft were also deployed in a synergized combat dimension with units of the Air Force and the Army for specific missions along the Northern border. In the Indian Ocean Region, Indian Navy assets were deployed for exercises and specific missions. The Armed Forces of India were ready to counter any challenges or misadventures by China. It is therefore said that two armies by themselves do not go to war, neither do two navies or two air forces. Two nations go to war, and the armed forces
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of the country have to be united for joint preparation and joint operations to counter any threats, challenges and external aggression. But, the escalation matrix for two nations to come to blows and engage in war is a gradual and deliberate process. Several institutionalised mechanisms between potential belligerents and world bodies try and prevent its uncontrolled escalation. The seeds of conflict are sown in localised disputes which results in skirmishes and raids, handled at the local commanders’ level. Simultaneously diplomatic engagements, propaganda and informational campaigns are launched to help resolve the conflict. When diplomacy collapses wars happen. A nation’s industrial might, its population, its social and political culture, its economy and its commitment to the cause are vital factors in the decision to go to war. If such a battle erupts, the onus to protect the country’s maritime interests would be mainly on the Indian Navy. How different would be a war at sea from one across land frontiers?
The country’s quintessential maritime character and vital geo-strategic location in the Indian Ocean are twin factors that define the Indian Navy’s vast maritime interests. The responsibility of protecting these interests falls squarely on the shoulders of men in white uniform. However, the war at sea is uniquely different. Unlike the land frontiers, there is no visible geographical demarcation of ‘ours and theirs’. The medium of conflict ranges from the sub-surface, surface, air, electronic and cyber to space. The vagaries of weather play a significant role on both the man and his machine in warfighting. And, finally a targeting mistake can trigger a world war. To explain, a torpedoed tanker carrying crude for the belligerent may be built in Japan, owned by Greek, flagged in Panama, chartered in the UK, manned by Philippian, Bangladeshi and Norwegians, insured in Belgium and carrying Saudi crude worth millions of dollars paid by traders in Dubai and Singapore. Therefore, when navies get engaged in war, the reverberations of conflict could impact the economy of many nations.
