H1 2015 IR Presentation FINANCIAL & BUSINESS RESULTS August 2015
Company Overview SECTION 1
Company at Glance Market Cap, as of August 21, 2015 Price per share, as of August 21, 2015 NAV (Equity), as of June 30, 2015 NAV per share, as of June 30, 2015 Portfolio Value* PORTFOLIO VALUE*
US$ 0.26 bn US$ 0,25 US$ 1.26 bn US$ 1,21 US$ 2.0 bn
•Full cycle real estate developer
BUSINESS
AFIMALL 50%
*Gross Asset Value of Portfolio based on C&W Valuation as for 30 June 2015 and BV of Land Bank projects, Trading Properties and Hotels(inc. JV)
1,6
•Admitted to LSE in 2007 •Premium listing from 2010
•14 completed projects with total c. 0,6 mln sqm of space TRACK RECORD
Share Price since August 2014
1,4
•Impeccable credit history •Market reputation for high quality and professional property management
•Free float – 35,12%
1200
•Secured financing for on-going projects • 32% Debt to Total Assets**
•14 years on the market
HISTORY Yelding Projects 20%
FINANCIAL STABILITY
•Primary market: Moscow, Russia
Land Bank
Development Projects 29%
•Focus on unique large scale commercial and residential projects
•Liquidity position: US$ 78,6 mn as at June 30, 2015
1000
•Strong global brand
1,2
0,8
600
0,6 400 0,4 200 0,2
0
0
GDR Volume
Ords Volume
AFI Development PLC GDR
AFI Development PLC Ords
Trading Volume
Share Price, USD
800 1
BRAND
•Affiliate of Africa Israel Group (64,88% owner) , a major conglomerate with global focus on real estate, construction and infrastructure
PORTFOLIO
•Substantial income generating portfolio. Major project AFIMALL
•8 Development Projects & land bank
** Bank loans only 3
Key Projects in Moscow Yielding Assets (retail, offices and hotels) US$ 1.4 bn
Value** ( C&W, Jun, 30 2015):
Tverskaya IB
Riversede Station AFIMALL
194K sqm
GLA(excl. hotels),sqm: NOI stab. PLAZA SPA Kisl*
PLAZA SPA ZHEL* Aquamarine III
US$ 185 mn
( excl. hotels):
* * Hotels presented with cost value
Aquamarine Hotel Paveletskaya,1
* Outside of Moscow
H2O
Projects Under Development Value**
US$ 587 mn
( C&W, Jun 30 2015):
Odinburg**
Paveletskaya II
Plaza iia
KOSSINSKAYA
Kossinskaya
Plaza IC
Botanic Garden
Pochtovaya
GLA,sqm:
235,0K sqm
GSA,sqm:
708,6K sqm
NOI stab. (C&W, Jun
US$ 105 mn
30 2015):
Plaza IV
** Odinburg and Botanic Garden presented with cost value
Land Bank Yielding Assets Projects under Development
Value (BV):
US$ 8 mn
Completed Assets
Other Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
4
Project Update. Yielding Projects SECTION 2
AFIMALL City Update
Ownership:50%
(as of June 2015) Total GBA, sqm
283,2K
Total GLA(shops, offices, storage), sqm
107.2K
Occupancy (as part of GLA total) Parking lots, numbers Terminal NOI (C&W est.)
The occupancy level dropped till 77% at the end of June 2015, which is 6% lower compared to Q1 2015 due to termination of several big tenants (exhibition on the 6th floor and kids-shop “Sonnies and Daughters”).
77%
Despite of the average decrease of footfall in shopping centers, average monthly footfall in June 2015 was 19% higher than that in June
2,075
2014AFIMALL is the unique shopping center who introduced new brands to the market.
US$ 134.5 mn
MV (C&W est.)
US$ 990 mn
Loan balance as for June, 2015
Revenue, mn USD US$ 470 mn Operating Expenses, mn USD NOI, mn USD
Q1 2015 19,1 (5,4) 13,7
Q1 2014 28,0 (11,1) 16,8
Q2 2015 19,4 (4,0) 15,4
H1 2015 38,5 (9,4) 29,1
Q2 2014 28,7 (6,2) 22,5
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
H1 2014 56,6 (17,3) 39,3
6
AFIMALL and Moscow-City Development •
Upon fully delivery the Moscow City will cover 60 ha and house 12 high-rise complexes (Total GBA – 3,5 mn sqm). Today Moscow-City consists of 11 complete building complexes accounting for c. 1 million sqm of rentable area among 1,2 mn sqm upon delivery.
•
In 2015-2017, the average annual new delivery volume will amount to 150,000 sqm of office space.
•
By 2017, transport infrastructure in the business district is expected to significantly improve, which will result in better accessibility and higher attractiveness of the business district amongst corporate and workers. Now three metro stations are opened (Vistovochnaya, Mezhdunarodnaya, Devlovoy Tcentr)
•
By 2017, the Third Interchange Loop (TIL) will be partially open and Moscow-City will have a metro connection with it
•
New metro stations will make it possible to approach Moscow-City from three different lines: the dark-blue and yellow lines as well as the TIL
•
Currently motorists can access Moscow-City from the TRR, 3d Magistralnaya street (connection with Zvenigorodskoe highway) or Presnenskaya embankment.
•
An additional access road, alongside the Kutuzovsky highway, is planned for 2018, which will increase direct access to the district.
•
In October Russian oil company completed the deal on buy–out of office building Evolution in Moscow City. ( c. 1 bln USD)
Supply and Vacancy Rate
MOSCOW CITY DEVELOPMENT Existing Office Complex: 4 – Imperia Tower; 8 – CityPoint; 9 – Capital City; 10 – Naberezhnaya Tower; 13a – Federation Tower (West); 14 – Mercury City Tower; 19 – Northern Tower; 12 – Steel Pick Tower; 6, 7 – Central Core (AFIMALL City); 16a – OKO; 2, 3 – Evolution Tower Under Construction: 11 – IQ-quarter; 13b – Federation Tower (East); 15, 17-18 - projects for further development
7
Yielding Properties
Building
AFIMALL
Ozerkovskaya III*
Berezkovskaya
Tverskaya Plaza II Tvesrkaya Plaza Ib Paveletskaya, bld. 1
H2O
Aquamarine Hotel
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow City
CBD
Moscow
CBD
CBD
Retail
Office A & Street Retail
Office B
Office & Street Retail
Office & Street Retail
Office B
Office B
GBA, sqm
283 182
61 772
11 612
5 913
2 338
16 246
GLA, sqm
107 208
46 247
10 250
5 856
2 054
2 075
466
140
-
75%
Moscow
Moscow
Parking lots (total), # Ocupancy rate (30.06.2015), % NOI stab. (C&West.), US$ mn MV**,US$ mn
77%
3,0%***
Plaza SPA Zheleznovodsk
TOTAL
Moscow
Location Class
Plaza SPA Kislovodsk
Caucasus region
Caucasus region
Hotel
Hotel
Hotel
10 698
8 931
25 000
11 701
438K
13 412
8 991
159 keys
275 keys
134 keys
194K
-
126
81
15
46
14
82%
82%
89%
69%
77%
85%
81%
CBD
134,5
38,9
3,5
2,3
0,8
3,3
1,9
-
-
-
185
990
293
21,3
14,1
4,7
16,6
10,3
17,3
14,6
12,4
1 394
* GBA and GLA presented after disposal of Bld. 1. ** MV based on C&W valuation as for 30.06.2015. Hotels presented by cost value *** Total signed area as for July 2015: 1,447 sqm
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
8
Project Update. Development Projects SECTION 3
Odinburg Residential GBA, sqm 767,1K GSA residential, sqm 453,0K
STATUS: Construction Bld#1, Bld.#2 SALE STATUS: Bld#1, Bld#2 are on sale Ownership:50%
Other Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
10
Odinburg Residential OVERVIEW The ODINBURG residential district is located in the town of Odintsovo, a modern area considered to be one of the best and most environmentally clean towns in the Moscow region. (11 km from MKAD). New highway to Moscow is right next to the complex.
The entire residential district takes up an area of 33 hectares, which will host eight 8-to-25 story buildings. The residential element will offer 9,139 apartments and a total sellable area of 453K sq.m. (Including City share).
Ownership:50%
CONSTRUCTION STATUS and SALES As of today 710 (37,3K sqm) apartments have been signed Construction of Bld.#2 is ongoing. Construction is funded with proceeds from sales. (as of June 2015) Type
GBA,sqm GSA, sqm/GSA commercial total: GSA resi(Phase I), sqm: GSA resi(Phase II), sqm: GLA, sqm:
Apartments, total : Phase 1: Stage 1 Stage 2
Residential
767,1K 453,0/19,6K 145,8K 307,9K 16,8K
9,139 2,652* 723 (Sold 666) 706 (Sold 44) * Including City share
Parking units: * Including City Share
3,399
Other 11
Plaza IC ( 2 Brestskaya, 50/2)
Ownership:50%
(as of June 2015 )
OVERVIEW Total GBA, sqm
61,8K
Total GLA, sqm
37,0K
Parking lots, numbers
The Plaza 1C project is located in Moscow business district in close proximity to the Garden Ring and Belorussky railway station and implies A class office complex construction with retail zones on the ground floor.
467
CONSTRUCTION STATUS MV (C&W est.)
US$ 87,7mn
Following the registration of a 10-year land lease agreement, the Company successfully finalised the development concept, received the necessary construction permit and completed all pre-construction works. AFI Developments plans to start construction of this project as soon as it has secured debt financing on favourable terms and the market situation improves.
Other Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
12
Projects under Development 1. POCHTOVAYA (RESIDENTIAL COMPLEX) Location: Moscow, CAD GBA, sqm 170,3K GSA/GLA, sqm 56,9K/34,2K Status: Stage P finalized MV, US$ (C&W) 108,3 mn
Botanic Garden
Ownership:50%
2. PAVELETSKAYA (RESIDENTIAL COMPLEX) Location: Moscow, CAD GBA, sqm 151,4K GSA/GLA, sqm 48,2K/26,1K Status: Stage P ongoing MV, US$ (C&W) 69,3 mn
Pochtovaya Plaza IV Kosinskaya Paveletskaya
3. PLAZA IV (OFFICE COMPLEX) Location: Moscow, CAD GBA, sqm 108,0K GLA, sqm 61,3K Status: Securing approval MV, US$ (C&W) 107,2 mn
4. BOTANIC GARDEN (RESIDENTIAL COMLEX) Location: Moscow GBA, sqm 255,0K GSA/GLA, sqm 107,5/5,1K Status: Concept MV, US$ (C&W) 21,6 mn Other 13
Other Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
13
Financial update SECTION 4
Consolidated P&L
#
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 H1 2015 H1 2014 Actual Actual Actual Actual USD=62 USD=53 USD=57 USD=34
ITEM ('000)
(1)
Construction consulting/management services
0,0
0,0
0,1
-
(2)
Rental income
24,4
26,0
50,4
74,8
(3)
Sale of residential and trading property
-
0,6
0,6
1,4
24,4
26,6
51,1
76,2
1,1
0,3
1,4
3,0
Ownership:50%
(4) TOTAL REVENUE (5)
Other income
(6)
Operating expenses
(11,4)
(9,7)
(21,1)
(37,3)
(7)
Administrative expenses
(2,7)
(2,2)
(4,9)
(11,0)
(8)
Cost of sales of residential and trading property
(0,6)
(0,6)
(1,0)
(9)
Other expenses
(0,4)
(0,6)
(1,0)
(2,9)
(13,4)
(12,9)
(26,3)
(49,3)
(10) TOTAL EXPENSES (11)
Share of profit of equity-accounted investees
(12) GROSS PROFIT (13)
Valuation gains on investment property
(14)
Profit (loss) for trading property
(15) RESULTS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
-
0,1
0,9
1,0
0,6
11,2
14,6
25,8
27,5
21,4
(63,8)
(42,3)
26,5
(0,7)
(0,0)
(0,7)
(8,7)
32,0
(49,2)
(17,2)
-
-
-
0,1
1,5
1,2
2,7
5,0
45,3
(16)
Profit on sale/disposal of properties/investment
(17)
Finance income
(18)
Finance expenses
(11,3)
(12,1)
(23,4)
(29,3)
(19)
FX Gain/(Loss)
(16,2)
19,9
3,8
(15,0)
(26,0) 6,0
9,1 (40,1)
(16,9) (34,1)
(39,4) 5,9
(20) Net finance income/(costs) (21) PROFIT BEFORE INCOME TAX (22)
Current income tax
(0,2)
(0,2)
(0,4)
(0,5)
(23)
Deferred income tax
0,3
1,0
1,3
(1,7)
(24) PROFIT FOR THE PERIOD
6,0
(39,2)
(33,2)
3,7
Other Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
15
Statement of Financial Position Changing US$ mn
30.06.2015 US$ mn
31.03.2015 US$ mn
31.12.2014 US$ mn
1 351,9 425,2 0,0 35,1 15,8 0,0 21,6
1 375,4 431,5 0,0 33,5 17,6 0,0 20,2
1 375,4 431,5 0,0 35,1 18,1 0,0 20,1
(23,5) (6,3) 0,0 1,6 (1,8) 0,0 1,4
1 849,7
1 878,2
1 880,2
(28,5)
-2%
2,6 143,9 0,4 0,1 43,7 1,4 78,6
2,9 134,9 0,5 0,1 39,4 1,4 74,7
3,0 133,0 0,6 0,0 39,0 1,3 93,3
(0,3) 9,0 (0,2) 0,0 4,3 0,0 3,9
(11%) 7% (30%) 6% 11% 0% 5%
270,6 2 120,3
253,9 2 132,1
270,2 2 150,4
16,7 (11,8)
7% -1%
1,0 1763,4 (311,1) (190,8)
1,0 1763,4 (320,7) (152,4)
1,0 1763,4 (314,9) (159,0)
0,0 0,0 9,6 (38,4)
(3%) 25%
1 262,5
1 291,4
1 290,6
(28,9)
-2%
(8,8) 629,7 100,9 11,3
(8,7) 632,7 103,6 12,2
(8,8) 455,1 102,6 13,0
(0,1) (3,0) (2,7) (0,9)
2% (0%) (3%) (8%)
741,9
748,5
570,7
(6,6)
-1%
46,1 23,2 55,4 0,0
30,6 24,5 45,7 0,0
231,7 28,2 38,0 0,0
15,5 (1,4) 9,8 0,0
51% (6%) 21%
Total current liabilities
124,7
100,8
297,9
23,9
24%
(33) TOTAL LIABILITIES
857,8
840,7
859,8
17,1
2%
2 120,3
2 132,0
2 150,4
(11,7)
(1%)
# (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25) (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)
NARRATIVE Investment property Investment property under development Investment in Joint Ventures Property, plant and equipment Long-term loans receivable VAT recoverable Inventory of real estate
Total non-current assets Trading property Trading properties under construction Inventory Short-term loans receivable Trade and other receivables Current tax assets Cash, cash equivalents and tradable securities
Total current assets TOTAL ASSETS Share capital Share premium Translation reserve Retaining earnings TOTAL EQUITY Minority interest Long-term loans and borrowings Deferred tax liabilities Deferred income
Total non-current liabilities Short-term loans and borrowings Trade and other payables Advances from customers Income tax payable
(34) TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
%
Comments:
-2% -1% 5% -10% 5% 7%
(24) (28) Prolongation of Ozerkovskaya loan
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
16
Loans and cash position as of June 30, 2015 Gross balance of the bank loan portfolio (as of June 30,2015) – US$ 675 mn
Total cash balance and deposits (as of June 30, 2015) – US$ 78,6 mn (including marketable securities)
Project
Bank
Balance as of June 30, 2015 (US$ mn)
Available (US$ mn)
Nominal Interest rate
Currency
VTB
$174
-
9,5%
RUB
VTB
$296
-
3-m Libor+5.02%
USD
$470
$0
6,85%
$0
8% + 3-m Libor from 24.01.15 to 20.03.15 7% + 3-m Libor from 21.03.15 to 26.01.18
01.04.2018
AFIMALL TOTAL AFIMALL
Ozerkovskaya III (100%)
TOTAL/AVERAGE RATE
Maturity
VTB
$195
$665
USD
26.01.2018
6,98%
Financial covenants Ozerkovskaya III Based on recent independent valuation of the Ozerkovskaya III project, there is a risk that the borrower, Krown Investments LLC, will not meet the Loan-To-Value covenant, and the lender, VTB Bank JSC, may require a partial repayment of the loan to reduce the outstanding loan amount. Based on this, the Company reclassified approximately US$ 4 mn from non-current to current liabilities
As of June 30, 2015 the Company is in line with all other covenants
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
Gross Asset Value PROJECT
Book Value
Bank Loan Net Company Share
31.12.2014
30.06.2015
30.06.2015
30.06.2015
AFI Mall Berezkovskaya (100%) Paveletskaya I Plaza H20 Ozerkovskaya III Plaza Ib Plaza II Sadovaya -Samotechnaya
1 000 21 20 12 300 5 15 2
990 21 17 10 293 5 14 2
(470)
520 21 17 10 98 5 14 2
TOTAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY:
1 375
1 352
(665)
Plaza Ic Plaza II a Plaza IV (100%) Kosinskaya Bolyshaya Pochtovaya Paveletskaya II Ruza
88 4 107 54 108 67 4
88 4 107 46 108 69 4
431
425
Ozerkovskaya Phase II (26) 4Winds residential
2 1
3 0
3
3
Aquamarine/Ozerkovskaya 26 Plaza SPA Zheleznovodsk Pyatigorskaya (Park Plaza Kislovodsk) Plaza Spa Kislovodsk (Tirel) (50%)
17 12 4 14
17 12 4 15
TOTAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY UNDER DEVELOPMENT:
TOTAL TRADING PROPERTY:
TOTAL PROPERTY PLANT AND EQUIPMENT: Odinburg Botanic Garden
TOTAL TRADING PROPERTY UNDER DEVELOPMENT:
TOTAL PORTFOLIO: CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENT DEFFERED TAX LIABILITY TOTAL OTHER ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
TOTAL EQUITY:
Book Value
48
49
133 20
144 22
(195)
686 88 4 107 46 108 69 4
0
LTV= 33% LTE = 53%
425 3 0
0
3 17 12 4 15
0
49 144 22
153
165
0
165
2 011
1 994
(665)
1 328 79 (101) (43)
1 263
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
Market Update SECTION 5
RUSSIAN MACROECONIMIC OVERVIEW
RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKET
• Russian economic growth: According to estimates from the MED, in Q2 2014 Russian GDP felt down by 4.2% compared to increase by 1,2% in Q2 2014. As a result, in H1 2015 GDP felt down by 3,4%. • Exchange rates: After a sound 3 months (Feb - Apr) of appreciation, in May - June the Rouble has again weakened against the USD. A fall in oil prices has contributed into the weakening of the Rouble. As for 10th of August, the exchange rate stood at the level of 64,43. (79% up yearly) In H2 2015 pressure on both the Rouble exchange rate and international reserves is expected to increase. This is due to the seasonal decline in the current account surplus and expected growth in external debt repayments (USD 66.1 bn., interest payments not included). It is important to say, during 2015 Central Bank decreased the key rate from 17% in February to 11% in July. • Inflation: Inflation has risen rapidly over the past six months, owing to the embargo on EU and US food products, as well as the rapid devaluation of the rouble. In H1 the consumer price rose by 8,5% compared to December 2014 and by 15,3% compared to June 2014. GDP Growth, %
160
Oil prive vs USD/RUB
4000
60
3000 48
3.0
2,5
2,5
7,7 5,3
1000
0
0
Advanced economies Euro area
Oil Brent
RUB/USD
7,5
8,1 Other
5,8
4,6
4,0
4,3 Wareh ouse
2,3 1,7
2000
20
Russia
Emerging market and developing economies
C&W
Investment Volume, USD Bln
9000
80
-9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CBRE
5000
64
40
-3,8%
JLL
6000
100
-4
Forecast of Investment Volume in 2015 (USD bln)
7000
120
1
• Half of the total volume was invested in office segment that remains the most attractive. At the same time, the share of the total investments in the retail segment decreased almost two times comparing to the last five years (US$ 196 mn, 15%).
8000
140 6
• In H1 2015, US$ 1,2 bn (90% of total investment volume in Russia) were invested by domestic and foreign companies in Moscow. It is 33% less compared to H1 2014.
1,3
Retail
0,5 Office
OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW
RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW
• In Q2 2015 number of transactions increased, that gave a reason for cautious optimism, however, it is too early to speak about change in the dynamics. During the first half of 2015, 224,000 sqm of quality office premises were delivered to the market. Class A offices comprise approximately 2/3 of the total volume.
• 5 new shopping centres were opened in Moscow in H1 2015: 3 of them in Q1 (GLA 235,000 sqm) and 2 in Q2 (GLA 71,000 sq.m). Occupancy rate in new Moscow malls is low (less than 30% in a retail gallery)
• The vacancy rates in class A and B offices exceed historical maximums: The vacancy is growing mostly due to existing premises being vacated instead of newly constructed ones being delivered to the market as it was registered before. The demand for expensive class A office premises fells more significantly which may result in 35% vacancies in 2015. In class B the vacancy rate is more stable, we expect annual average at 14% here. • Started in 2014, decrease in rental rates prolonged in Q1 2015. The average asking base rent for class A premises now is $611 and for class B - $287 (triple net). Stable rents for decentralised Class A office buildings ($450-550) and for Class B office buildings ($250-400).
1 200
US$/psqm/pa
1 000 800
400
Rent Class A (Prime) ,US$ sqmpa
1 088
646 807
600
Key indicators
Base Rent, US$ psqmpa
734
796
783
645
935 509
414
645
444 4…
530
477 287 281
• At the beginning of 2015 the vacancy rate in was 7%, increasing to 9% over the course of Q1 2015. The risk of the vacancy rate rising to 11-12% before the end of the year remains high.
• After strong correction of rental rates in late 2014, H1 2015 was relatively stable: Currently the rental rates in the majority of lease contracts have a fix exchange rate for a short-term period (on average 6 months) with a renegotiation option. Prime rent for tenants occupying small areas (100-200 sqm) in the galleries of leading shopping centers is starting from 1,700 US$ psqmpa year till 3,200 US$ psqmpa
Units
4 500
750-840
4 000
Prime Rents, US$ psqmpa
3 500
611
870
731
• Moscow shopping malls’ foot flow is the lowest since 2011 and by 10%lower than 4-years quarterly average.
Base rent Class A, US$ sqmpa
450-650
3 800 3 000 2 500
Overall vacancy,%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 2015 2015 average Class A average Class B
Vacancy rate, Class A, %
Units
Prime rate, US$ psqma (prime shopping
2,000 – 3,200
center retail gallery)
Base rent, US$ psqma
400-1,450
Vacancy rate,%
7%
17,0% 2 000
200
Key indicators
27,4% - 35,7% 1 500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 2015 2015
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
RESIDENTIAL MARKET MOSCOW AND MOSCOW REGION
MOSCOW:
• According to Mosgorstat, the volume of commissioned residential construction in Moscow for the 1st half of 2015 amounted 1,8 mn sqm., which is 17,5% higher than in the same period last year. • During the period from January to June 2015 in Moscow six new projects (a total of 541 flats) delivered on the market. • According to IntermarkSavills estimates, customers invested in new business class construction more than 1 billion US dollars last year for the period from January to June; in 2015 this indicator equals 630 mn US$ (that is 38% less). • By the end of June 2015 the weighted average bid price on the ruble market of new business class residential construction in Moscow amounted to 283 thousand rubles per sq. m. (4,964 US$, USD/RUB = 57). Compared with the end of June 2014, prices increased in average by 8% in Rubles. It is also important to understand that the prices do not take into account discounts offers; however, in the first quarter of this year, customer could rely on discounts in the range of 20%, i.e. in fact, prices at the level of last summer - early autumn. Now the most common discount is 7- 10% if customer is willing to pay 100% of the price. MOSCOW REGION:
Average asking price in prime residential market of Moscow, by districts. (th.rubpsqm)
NORD
Residential Apartments
EAST-NORD
Residential Apartments EAST
WEST-NORD
Residential Apartments
Residential Apartments CENTRAL
Residential Apartments WEST
Residential Apartments
SOUTH-WEST
Residential Apartments
SOUTH
Residential Apartments
• As for June 2015 the average price per sqm in Moscow region reached US$ 1,450, or 80,500 rub (USD/RUB = 55,5)
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions