H1 2015 Investor Presentation

Page 1

H1 2015 IR Presentation FINANCIAL & BUSINESS RESULTS August 2015


Company Overview SECTION 1


Company at Glance Market Cap, as of August 21, 2015 Price per share, as of August 21, 2015 NAV (Equity), as of June 30, 2015 NAV per share, as of June 30, 2015 Portfolio Value* PORTFOLIO VALUE*

US$ 0.26 bn US$ 0,25 US$ 1.26 bn US$ 1,21 US$ 2.0 bn

•Full cycle real estate developer

BUSINESS

AFIMALL 50%

*Gross Asset Value of Portfolio based on C&W Valuation as for 30 June 2015 and BV of Land Bank projects, Trading Properties and Hotels(inc. JV)

1,6

•Admitted to LSE in 2007 •Premium listing from 2010

•14 completed projects with total c. 0,6 mln sqm of space TRACK RECORD

Share Price since August 2014

1,4

•Impeccable credit history •Market reputation for high quality and professional property management

•Free float – 35,12%

1200

•Secured financing for on-going projects • 32% Debt to Total Assets**

•14 years on the market

HISTORY Yelding Projects 20%

FINANCIAL STABILITY

•Primary market: Moscow, Russia

Land Bank

Development Projects 29%

•Focus on unique large scale commercial and residential projects

•Liquidity position: US$ 78,6 mn as at June 30, 2015

1000

•Strong global brand

1,2

0,8

600

0,6 400 0,4 200 0,2

0

0

GDR Volume

Ords Volume

AFI Development PLC GDR

AFI Development PLC Ords

Trading Volume

Share Price, USD

800 1

BRAND

•Affiliate of Africa Israel Group (64,88% owner) , a major conglomerate with global focus on real estate, construction and infrastructure

PORTFOLIO

•Substantial income generating portfolio. Major project AFIMALL

•8 Development Projects & land bank

** Bank loans only 3


Key Projects in Moscow Yielding Assets (retail, offices and hotels) US$ 1.4 bn

Value** ( C&W, Jun, 30 2015):

Tverskaya IB

Riversede Station AFIMALL

194K sqm

GLA(excl. hotels),sqm: NOI stab. PLAZA SPA Kisl*

PLAZA SPA ZHEL* Aquamarine III

US$ 185 mn

( excl. hotels):

* * Hotels presented with cost value

Aquamarine Hotel Paveletskaya,1

* Outside of Moscow

H2O

Projects Under Development Value**

US$ 587 mn

( C&W, Jun 30 2015):

Odinburg**

Paveletskaya II

Plaza iia

KOSSINSKAYA

Kossinskaya

Plaza IC

Botanic Garden

Pochtovaya

GLA,sqm:

235,0K sqm

GSA,sqm:

708,6K sqm

NOI stab. (C&W, Jun

US$ 105 mn

30 2015):

Plaza IV

** Odinburg and Botanic Garden presented with cost value

Land Bank Yielding Assets Projects under Development

Value (BV):

US$ 8 mn

Completed Assets

Other Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions

4


Project Update. Yielding Projects SECTION 2


AFIMALL City Update

Ownership:50%

(as of June 2015) Total GBA, sqm

283,2K

Total GLA(shops, offices, storage), sqm

107.2K

Occupancy (as part of GLA total) Parking lots, numbers Terminal NOI (C&W est.)

 The occupancy level dropped till 77% at the end of June 2015, which is 6% lower compared to Q1 2015 due to termination of several big tenants (exhibition on the 6th floor and kids-shop “Sonnies and Daughters”).

77%

 Despite of the average decrease of footfall in shopping centers, average monthly footfall in June 2015 was 19% higher than that in June

2,075

 2014AFIMALL is the unique shopping center who introduced new brands to the market.

US$ 134.5 mn

MV (C&W est.)

US$ 990 mn

Loan balance as for June, 2015

Revenue, mn USD US$ 470 mn Operating Expenses, mn USD NOI, mn USD

Q1 2015 19,1 (5,4) 13,7

Q1 2014 28,0 (11,1) 16,8

Q2 2015 19,4 (4,0) 15,4

H1 2015 38,5 (9,4) 29,1

Q2 2014 28,7 (6,2) 22,5

Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions

H1 2014 56,6 (17,3) 39,3

6


AFIMALL and Moscow-City Development •

Upon fully delivery the Moscow City will cover 60 ha and house 12 high-rise complexes (Total GBA – 3,5 mn sqm). Today Moscow-City consists of 11 complete building complexes accounting for c. 1 million sqm of rentable area among 1,2 mn sqm upon delivery.

In 2015-2017, the average annual new delivery volume will amount to 150,000 sqm of office space.

By 2017, transport infrastructure in the business district is expected to significantly improve, which will result in better accessibility and higher attractiveness of the business district amongst corporate and workers. Now three metro stations are opened (Vistovochnaya, Mezhdunarodnaya, Devlovoy Tcentr)

By 2017, the Third Interchange Loop (TIL) will be partially open and Moscow-City will have a metro connection with it

New metro stations will make it possible to approach Moscow-City from three different lines: the dark-blue and yellow lines as well as the TIL

Currently motorists can access Moscow-City from the TRR, 3d Magistralnaya street (connection with Zvenigorodskoe highway) or Presnenskaya embankment.

An additional access road, alongside the Kutuzovsky highway, is planned for 2018, which will increase direct access to the district.

In October Russian oil company completed the deal on buy–out of office building Evolution in Moscow City. ( c. 1 bln USD)

Supply and Vacancy Rate

MOSCOW CITY DEVELOPMENT Existing Office Complex: 4 – Imperia Tower; 8 – CityPoint; 9 – Capital City; 10 – Naberezhnaya Tower; 13a – Federation Tower (West); 14 – Mercury City Tower; 19 – Northern Tower; 12 – Steel Pick Tower; 6, 7 – Central Core (AFIMALL City); 16a – OKO; 2, 3 – Evolution Tower Under Construction: 11 – IQ-quarter; 13b – Federation Tower (East); 15, 17-18 - projects for further development

7


Yielding Properties

Building

AFIMALL

Ozerkovskaya III*

Berezkovskaya

Tverskaya Plaza II Tvesrkaya Plaza Ib Paveletskaya, bld. 1

H2O

Aquamarine Hotel

Moscow

Moscow

Moscow

Moscow

Moscow

Moscow City

CBD

Moscow

CBD

CBD

Retail

Office A & Street Retail

Office B

Office & Street Retail

Office & Street Retail

Office B

Office B

GBA, sqm

283 182

61 772

11 612

5 913

2 338

16 246

GLA, sqm

107 208

46 247

10 250

5 856

2 054

2 075

466

140

-

75%

Moscow

Moscow

Parking lots (total), # Ocupancy rate (30.06.2015), % NOI stab. (C&West.), US$ mn MV**,US$ mn

77%

3,0%***

Plaza SPA Zheleznovodsk

TOTAL

Moscow

Location Class

Plaza SPA Kislovodsk

Caucasus region

Caucasus region

Hotel

Hotel

Hotel

10 698

8 931

25 000

11 701

438K

13 412

8 991

159 keys

275 keys

134 keys

194K

-

126

81

15

46

14

82%

82%

89%

69%

77%

85%

81%

CBD

134,5

38,9

3,5

2,3

0,8

3,3

1,9

-

-

-

185

990

293

21,3

14,1

4,7

16,6

10,3

17,3

14,6

12,4

1 394

* GBA and GLA presented after disposal of Bld. 1. ** MV based on C&W valuation as for 30.06.2015. Hotels presented by cost value *** Total signed area as for July 2015: 1,447 sqm

Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions

8


Project Update. Development Projects SECTION 3


Odinburg Residential GBA, sqm 767,1K GSA residential, sqm 453,0K

STATUS: Construction Bld#1, Bld.#2 SALE STATUS: Bld#1, Bld#2 are on sale Ownership:50%

Other Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions

10


Odinburg Residential OVERVIEW  The ODINBURG residential district is located in the town of Odintsovo, a modern area considered to be one of the best and most environmentally clean towns in the Moscow region. (11 km from MKAD).  New highway to Moscow is right next to the complex.

 The entire residential district takes up an area of 33 hectares, which will host eight 8-to-25 story buildings. The residential element will offer 9,139 apartments and a total sellable area of 453K sq.m. (Including City share).

Ownership:50%

CONSTRUCTION STATUS and SALES  As of today 710 (37,3K sqm) apartments have been signed  Construction of Bld.#2 is ongoing.  Construction is funded with proceeds from sales. (as of June 2015) Type

GBA,sqm GSA, sqm/GSA commercial total: GSA resi(Phase I), sqm: GSA resi(Phase II), sqm: GLA, sqm:

Apartments, total :  Phase 1:  Stage 1  Stage 2

Residential

767,1K 453,0/19,6K 145,8K 307,9K 16,8K

9,139 2,652* 723 (Sold 666) 706 (Sold 44) * Including City share

Parking units: * Including City Share

3,399

Other 11


Plaza IC ( 2 Brestskaya, 50/2)

Ownership:50%

(as of June 2015 )

OVERVIEW Total GBA, sqm

61,8K

Total GLA, sqm

37,0K

Parking lots, numbers

 The Plaza 1C project is located in Moscow business district in close proximity to the Garden Ring and Belorussky railway station and implies A class office complex construction with retail zones on the ground floor.

467

CONSTRUCTION STATUS MV (C&W est.)

US$ 87,7mn

 Following the registration of a 10-year land lease agreement, the Company successfully finalised the development concept, received the necessary construction permit and completed all pre-construction works. AFI Developments plans to start construction of this project as soon as it has secured debt financing on favourable terms and the market situation improves.

Other Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions

12


Projects under Development 1. POCHTOVAYA (RESIDENTIAL COMPLEX) Location: Moscow, CAD GBA, sqm 170,3K GSA/GLA, sqm 56,9K/34,2K Status: Stage P finalized MV, US$ (C&W) 108,3 mn

Botanic Garden

Ownership:50%

2. PAVELETSKAYA (RESIDENTIAL COMPLEX) Location: Moscow, CAD GBA, sqm 151,4K GSA/GLA, sqm 48,2K/26,1K Status: Stage P ongoing MV, US$ (C&W) 69,3 mn

Pochtovaya Plaza IV Kosinskaya Paveletskaya

3. PLAZA IV (OFFICE COMPLEX) Location: Moscow, CAD GBA, sqm 108,0K GLA, sqm 61,3K Status: Securing approval MV, US$ (C&W) 107,2 mn

4. BOTANIC GARDEN (RESIDENTIAL COMLEX) Location: Moscow GBA, sqm 255,0K GSA/GLA, sqm 107,5/5,1K Status: Concept MV, US$ (C&W) 21,6 mn Other 13

Other Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions

13


Financial update SECTION 4


Consolidated P&L

#

Q1 2015 Q2 2015 H1 2015 H1 2014 Actual Actual Actual Actual USD=62 USD=53 USD=57 USD=34

ITEM ('000)

(1)

Construction consulting/management services

0,0

0,0

0,1

-

(2)

Rental income

24,4

26,0

50,4

74,8

(3)

Sale of residential and trading property

-

0,6

0,6

1,4

24,4

26,6

51,1

76,2

1,1

0,3

1,4

3,0

Ownership:50%

(4) TOTAL REVENUE (5)

Other income

(6)

Operating expenses

(11,4)

(9,7)

(21,1)

(37,3)

(7)

Administrative expenses

(2,7)

(2,2)

(4,9)

(11,0)

(8)

Cost of sales of residential and trading property

(0,6)

(0,6)

(1,0)

(9)

Other expenses

(0,4)

(0,6)

(1,0)

(2,9)

(13,4)

(12,9)

(26,3)

(49,3)

(10) TOTAL EXPENSES (11)

Share of profit of equity-accounted investees

(12) GROSS PROFIT (13)

Valuation gains on investment property

(14)

Profit (loss) for trading property

(15) RESULTS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES

-

0,1

0,9

1,0

0,6

11,2

14,6

25,8

27,5

21,4

(63,8)

(42,3)

26,5

(0,7)

(0,0)

(0,7)

(8,7)

32,0

(49,2)

(17,2)

-

-

-

0,1

1,5

1,2

2,7

5,0

45,3

(16)

Profit on sale/disposal of properties/investment

(17)

Finance income

(18)

Finance expenses

(11,3)

(12,1)

(23,4)

(29,3)

(19)

FX Gain/(Loss)

(16,2)

19,9

3,8

(15,0)

(26,0) 6,0

9,1 (40,1)

(16,9) (34,1)

(39,4) 5,9

(20) Net finance income/(costs) (21) PROFIT BEFORE INCOME TAX (22)

Current income tax

(0,2)

(0,2)

(0,4)

(0,5)

(23)

Deferred income tax

0,3

1,0

1,3

(1,7)

(24) PROFIT FOR THE PERIOD

6,0

(39,2)

(33,2)

3,7

Other Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions

15


Statement of Financial Position Changing US$ mn

30.06.2015 US$ mn

31.03.2015 US$ mn

31.12.2014 US$ mn

1 351,9 425,2 0,0 35,1 15,8 0,0 21,6

1 375,4 431,5 0,0 33,5 17,6 0,0 20,2

1 375,4 431,5 0,0 35,1 18,1 0,0 20,1

(23,5) (6,3) 0,0 1,6 (1,8) 0,0 1,4

1 849,7

1 878,2

1 880,2

(28,5)

-2%

2,6 143,9 0,4 0,1 43,7 1,4 78,6

2,9 134,9 0,5 0,1 39,4 1,4 74,7

3,0 133,0 0,6 0,0 39,0 1,3 93,3

(0,3) 9,0 (0,2) 0,0 4,3 0,0 3,9

(11%) 7% (30%) 6% 11% 0% 5%

270,6 2 120,3

253,9 2 132,1

270,2 2 150,4

16,7 (11,8)

7% -1%

1,0 1763,4 (311,1) (190,8)

1,0 1763,4 (320,7) (152,4)

1,0 1763,4 (314,9) (159,0)

0,0 0,0 9,6 (38,4)

(3%) 25%

1 262,5

1 291,4

1 290,6

(28,9)

-2%

(8,8) 629,7 100,9 11,3

(8,7) 632,7 103,6 12,2

(8,8) 455,1 102,6 13,0

(0,1) (3,0) (2,7) (0,9)

2% (0%) (3%) (8%)

741,9

748,5

570,7

(6,6)

-1%

46,1 23,2 55,4 0,0

30,6 24,5 45,7 0,0

231,7 28,2 38,0 0,0

15,5 (1,4) 9,8 0,0

51% (6%) 21%

Total current liabilities

124,7

100,8

297,9

23,9

24%

(33) TOTAL LIABILITIES

857,8

840,7

859,8

17,1

2%

2 120,3

2 132,0

2 150,4

(11,7)

(1%)

# (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25) (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)

NARRATIVE Investment property Investment property under development Investment in Joint Ventures Property, plant and equipment Long-term loans receivable VAT recoverable Inventory of real estate

Total non-current assets Trading property Trading properties under construction Inventory Short-term loans receivable Trade and other receivables Current tax assets Cash, cash equivalents and tradable securities

Total current assets TOTAL ASSETS Share capital Share premium Translation reserve Retaining earnings TOTAL EQUITY Minority interest Long-term loans and borrowings Deferred tax liabilities Deferred income

Total non-current liabilities Short-term loans and borrowings Trade and other payables Advances from customers Income tax payable

(34) TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES

%

Comments:

-2% -1% 5% -10% 5% 7%

(24) (28) Prolongation of Ozerkovskaya loan

Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions

16


Loans and cash position as of June 30, 2015  Gross balance of the bank loan portfolio (as of June 30,2015) – US$ 675 mn

 Total cash balance and deposits (as of June 30, 2015) – US$ 78,6 mn (including marketable securities)

Project

Bank

Balance as of June 30, 2015 (US$ mn)

Available (US$ mn)

Nominal Interest rate

Currency

VTB

$174

-

9,5%

RUB

VTB

$296

-

3-m Libor+5.02%

USD

$470

$0

6,85%

$0

8% + 3-m Libor from 24.01.15 to 20.03.15 7% + 3-m Libor from 21.03.15 to 26.01.18

01.04.2018

AFIMALL TOTAL AFIMALL

Ozerkovskaya III (100%)

TOTAL/AVERAGE RATE

Maturity

VTB

$195

$665

USD

26.01.2018

6,98%

Financial covenants Ozerkovskaya III Based on recent independent valuation of the Ozerkovskaya III project, there is a risk that the borrower, Krown Investments LLC, will not meet the Loan-To-Value covenant, and the lender, VTB Bank JSC, may require a partial repayment of the loan to reduce the outstanding loan amount. Based on this, the Company reclassified approximately US$ 4 mn from non-current to current liabilities

As of June 30, 2015 the Company is in line with all other covenants

Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions


Gross Asset Value PROJECT

Book Value

Bank Loan Net Company Share

31.12.2014

30.06.2015

30.06.2015

30.06.2015

AFI Mall Berezkovskaya (100%) Paveletskaya I Plaza H20 Ozerkovskaya III Plaza Ib Plaza II Sadovaya -Samotechnaya

1 000 21 20 12 300 5 15 2

990 21 17 10 293 5 14 2

(470)

520 21 17 10 98 5 14 2

TOTAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY:

1 375

1 352

(665)

Plaza Ic Plaza II a Plaza IV (100%) Kosinskaya Bolyshaya Pochtovaya Paveletskaya II Ruza

88 4 107 54 108 67 4

88 4 107 46 108 69 4

431

425

Ozerkovskaya Phase II (26) 4Winds residential

2 1

3 0

3

3

Aquamarine/Ozerkovskaya 26 Plaza SPA Zheleznovodsk Pyatigorskaya (Park Plaza Kislovodsk) Plaza Spa Kislovodsk (Tirel) (50%)

17 12 4 14

17 12 4 15

TOTAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY UNDER DEVELOPMENT:

TOTAL TRADING PROPERTY:

TOTAL PROPERTY PLANT AND EQUIPMENT: Odinburg Botanic Garden

TOTAL TRADING PROPERTY UNDER DEVELOPMENT:

TOTAL PORTFOLIO: CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENT DEFFERED TAX LIABILITY TOTAL OTHER ASSETS AND LIABILITIES

TOTAL EQUITY:

Book Value

48

49

133 20

144 22

(195)

686 88 4 107 46 108 69 4

0

LTV= 33% LTE = 53%

425 3 0

0

3 17 12 4 15

0

49 144 22

153

165

0

165

2 011

1 994

(665)

1 328 79 (101) (43)

1 263

Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions


Market Update SECTION 5


RUSSIAN MACROECONIMIC OVERVIEW

RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKET

• Russian economic growth: According to estimates from the MED, in Q2 2014 Russian GDP felt down by 4.2% compared to increase by 1,2% in Q2 2014. As a result, in H1 2015 GDP felt down by 3,4%. • Exchange rates: After a sound 3 months (Feb - Apr) of appreciation, in May - June the Rouble has again weakened against the USD. A fall in oil prices has contributed into the weakening of the Rouble. As for 10th of August, the exchange rate stood at the level of 64,43. (79% up yearly) In H2 2015 pressure on both the Rouble exchange rate and international reserves is expected to increase. This is due to the seasonal decline in the current account surplus and expected growth in external debt repayments (USD 66.1 bn., interest payments not included). It is important to say, during 2015 Central Bank decreased the key rate from 17% in February to 11% in July. • Inflation: Inflation has risen rapidly over the past six months, owing to the embargo on EU and US food products, as well as the rapid devaluation of the rouble. In H1 the consumer price rose by 8,5% compared to December 2014 and by 15,3% compared to June 2014. GDP Growth, %

160

Oil prive vs USD/RUB

4000

60

3000 48

3.0

2,5

2,5

7,7 5,3

1000

0

0

Advanced economies Euro area

Oil Brent

RUB/USD

7,5

8,1 Other

5,8

4,6

4,0

4,3 Wareh ouse

2,3 1,7

2000

20

Russia

Emerging market and developing economies

C&W

Investment Volume, USD Bln

9000

80

-9

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CBRE

5000

64

40

-3,8%

JLL

6000

100

-4

Forecast of Investment Volume in 2015 (USD bln)

7000

120

1

• Half of the total volume was invested in office segment that remains the most attractive. At the same time, the share of the total investments in the retail segment decreased almost two times comparing to the last five years (US$ 196 mn, 15%).

8000

140 6

• In H1 2015, US$ 1,2 bn (90% of total investment volume in Russia) were invested by domestic and foreign companies in Moscow. It is 33% less compared to H1 2014.

1,3

Retail

0,5 Office


OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW

RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW

• In Q2 2015 number of transactions increased, that gave a reason for cautious optimism, however, it is too early to speak about change in the dynamics. During the first half of 2015, 224,000 sqm of quality office premises were delivered to the market. Class A offices comprise approximately 2/3 of the total volume.

• 5 new shopping centres were opened in Moscow in H1 2015: 3 of them in Q1 (GLA 235,000 sqm) and 2 in Q2 (GLA 71,000 sq.m). Occupancy rate in new Moscow malls is low (less than 30% in a retail gallery)

• The vacancy rates in class A and B offices exceed historical maximums: The vacancy is growing mostly due to existing premises being vacated instead of newly constructed ones being delivered to the market as it was registered before. The demand for expensive class A office premises fells more significantly which may result in 35% vacancies in 2015. In class B the vacancy rate is more stable, we expect annual average at 14% here. • Started in 2014, decrease in rental rates prolonged in Q1 2015. The average asking base rent for class A premises now is $611 and for class B - $287 (triple net). Stable rents for decentralised Class A office buildings ($450-550) and for Class B office buildings ($250-400).

1 200

US$/psqm/pa

1 000 800

400

Rent Class A (Prime) ,US$ sqmpa

1 088

646 807

600

Key indicators

Base Rent, US$ psqmpa

734

796

783

645

935 509

414

645

444 4…

530

477 287 281

• At the beginning of 2015 the vacancy rate in was 7%, increasing to 9% over the course of Q1 2015. The risk of the vacancy rate rising to 11-12% before the end of the year remains high.

• After strong correction of rental rates in late 2014, H1 2015 was relatively stable: Currently the rental rates in the majority of lease contracts have a fix exchange rate for a short-term period (on average 6 months) with a renegotiation option. Prime rent for tenants occupying small areas (100-200 sqm) in the galleries of leading shopping centers is starting from 1,700 US$ psqmpa year till 3,200 US$ psqmpa

Units

4 500

750-840

4 000

Prime Rents, US$ psqmpa

3 500

611

870

731

• Moscow shopping malls’ foot flow is the lowest since 2011 and by 10%lower than 4-years quarterly average.

Base rent Class A, US$ sqmpa

450-650

3 800 3 000 2 500

Overall vacancy,%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 2015 2015 average Class A average Class B

Vacancy rate, Class A, %

Units

Prime rate, US$ psqma (prime shopping

2,000 – 3,200

center retail gallery)

Base rent, US$ psqma

400-1,450

Vacancy rate,%

7%

17,0% 2 000

200

Key indicators

27,4% - 35,7% 1 500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 2015 2015

Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions


RESIDENTIAL MARKET MOSCOW AND MOSCOW REGION

MOSCOW:

• According to Mosgorstat, the volume of commissioned residential construction in Moscow for the 1st half of 2015 amounted 1,8 mn sqm., which is 17,5% higher than in the same period last year. • During the period from January to June 2015 in Moscow six new projects (a total of 541 flats) delivered on the market. • According to IntermarkSavills estimates, customers invested in new business class construction more than 1 billion US dollars last year for the period from January to June; in 2015 this indicator equals 630 mn US$ (that is 38% less). • By the end of June 2015 the weighted average bid price on the ruble market of new business class residential construction in Moscow amounted to 283 thousand rubles per sq. m. (4,964 US$, USD/RUB = 57). Compared with the end of June 2014, prices increased in average by 8% in Rubles. It is also important to understand that the prices do not take into account discounts offers; however, in the first quarter of this year, customer could rely on discounts in the range of 20%, i.e. in fact, prices at the level of last summer - early autumn. Now the most common discount is 7- 10% if customer is willing to pay 100% of the price. MOSCOW REGION:

Average asking price in prime residential market of Moscow, by districts. (th.rubpsqm)

NORD

Residential Apartments

EAST-NORD

Residential Apartments EAST

WEST-NORD

Residential Apartments

Residential Apartments CENTRAL

Residential Apartments WEST

Residential Apartments

SOUTH-WEST

Residential Apartments

SOUTH

Residential Apartments

• As for June 2015 the average price per sqm in Moscow region reached US$ 1,450, or 80,500 rub (USD/RUB = 55,5)

Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on C&W valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.