9M 2017 IR Presentation FINANCIAL & BUSINESS RESULTS November 2017
Disclaimer This document does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of AFI Development Plc (the "Company") or any of its subsidiaries in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. None of the Company or any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the document. This communication is only being distributed to and is only directed at (1) qualified institutional buyers (within the meaning of Rule 144A of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") or (2) accredited investors (as defined in Rule 501(a) of Regulation D adopted pursuant to the Securities Act). Any person who is not a "qualified institutional buyer" or "accredited investor" should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. This document contains "forward-looking statements", which include all statements other than statements of historical facts, including, without limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words "targets", "believes", "expects", "aims", "intends", "will", "may", "anticipates", "would", "could" or similar expressions or the negative thereof. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond the Company's control that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking, including, among others, the achievement of anticipated levels of profitability, growth, cost and synergy of recent acquisitions, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date as of which they are made, and the Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the Company's expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements are based. Neither the Company, nor any of its agents, employees or advisors intends or has any duty or obligation to supplement, amend, update or revise any of the forward-looking statements contained in this document. The information contained in this document is provided as at the date of this document and is subject to change without notice.
2
Company Overview SECTION 1
AFI Development at a glance Market Cap, as of 17 November 2017 Mkt price GDR, as of 17 November 2017 Mkt price B share, as of 17 November 2017 NAV (Equity), as of 30 June 2017 NAV per share, as of 30 June 2017 Portfolio Value*
US$204 mln US$0.185 US$0.240 US$772 mln US$0.74 US$ 1.50 bn
BUSINESS
PORTFOLIO VALUE*
HISTORY
*Gross Asset Value of Portfolio based on JLL Valuation as of 30 September 2017 and BSV of Land Bank projects, Trading Properties and Hotels
BRAND
•Full cycle real estate developer •Focus on unique large scale commercial and residential projects •Primary market: Moscow, Russia
•16 years on the market •Admitted to LSE in 2007 •Premium listing from 2010 •Free float – 35.12%
•Strong local and international brand
FINANCIAL STABILITY
• Liquidity position: US$67.7 million as at 30 September 2017 • Secured financing for on-going projects • 46% Debt to Total Assets ratio**
TRACK RECORD
•14 completed projects with total c. 0.6 mln sqm of space •Market reputation for high quality and professional property management
PORTFOLIO
• Substantial income generating portfolio. Major project AFIMALL City • 8 Development Projects & land bank
** Bank loans only
4
Key Projects in Moscow Yielding Projects (retail, offices and hotels) Value** Plaza II, Plaza Ib
Riverside Station Berezhkovskaya
AFIMALL
GLA (excl. hotels), sqm: PLAZA SPA Kisl*
PLAZA SPA Zhel*
US$980 mn
(JLL and book value, as of 30 September 2017):
193.1K sqm
Aquamarine III
* Outside of Moscow * * Hotels presented at cost value Aquamarine Htl
Paveletskaya I
H2O
Projects Under Development Value** Odinburg**
Paveletskaya II
Plaza II
KOSSINSKAYA Kossinskaya
US$521 mn
(JLL and book value, as of 30 September 2017):
Plaza Ic
B. Pochtovaya
Botanic Garden
Plaza IV
GLA, sqm:
231.6K
GSA, sqm:
730.9K
** Odinburg, Paveletskaya, Pochtovaya and Botanic Garden presented at cost value
Land Bank Yielding Projects Value (BSV):
US$4 mn
Projects under Development Completed Assets 5
Project Update. Yielding Projects SECTION 2
AFIMALL City Update
(as of September 2017) Total GBA, sqm
275.0K
The occupancy level was 87% at the end of September 2017, no change relative to the end of June 2017
Total GLA (shops, offices, storage), sqm
107.2K
AFIMALL City’s performance continues to improve, reflected in increased revenue (US$59.8 million for 9M) and NOI (US$44.4 million for 9M)
87%
Recent new openings at AFIMALL City include a Tumi travel accessories shop (first in Russia), Antony Morato Italian fashion outlet and BiotechUSA sports nutrition and fitness goods unit
Occupancy
(as part of GLA total)
Parking lots
2,022
Terminal NOI (JLL est.)
US$ 84.38 m
MV (JLL est.)
US$ 670.9 m
Loan balance as of the end of Q3, 2017
US$ 451.6 m
ITEM, US$ million (1) Revenue (2) Operating expenses (3) NOI
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 9M 2017 9M 2016 Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual 19.5 20.3 20.0 59.8 48.6 (5.2)
(5.2)
(5.0)
(15.4)
(10.8)
14.3
15.1
15.0
44.4
37.8
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on JLL valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
7
Yielding Properties Building
AFIMALL Ozerkovskaya III*
Berezhkovskaya
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow City
CBD
Moscow
Retail
Office A
Office B
GBA, sqm
275 046
61 579
7 910
GLA, sqm
107 208
46 247
2 022
Location Class
Parking lots (total), # Ocupancy rate (30.09.2017), % NOI term., (JLL est.), US$ mn MV*, US$ mn
Tvesrkaya Plaza Ib Moscow CBD Office & Street Retail
Paveletskaya I Moscow
H2O
Aquamarine Hotel
Moscow
Plaza SPA Kislovodsk
Moscow CBD
Plaza SPA Caucasus Zheleznov Caucasus region region
TOTAL
Office B
Office B
Hotel
Hotel
Hotel
2 338
16 246
10 080
8 848
25 000
11 701
437K
6 928
2 050
13 412
8 990
134 keys
193K
466
105
-
86
81
87%
20%
94%
87%
2%
63%
85.4
29.4
1.9
0.6
2.6
670.9
198.5
11.7
3.5
12.0
159 keys 15
275 keys 46
14
79% ***
77% ***
64% ***
1.8
-
-
-
122
9.4
16.3
45.6
12.0
980
* MV based on JLL valuation as for 30.06.2017 (there were no changes as of 30.9.2017). Hotels presented at cost value ** The hotel occupancy is presented as average for the period (Q3 2017)
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on JLL valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
8
Project Update. Development Projects SECTION 3
Odinburg Residential GBA, 831.1K sqm GSA residential, sqm 462.0K STATUS: Construction Bldg #3, Bldg #6, kindergarten of phase I SALES STATUS: Bld#1, 2, 3 and 6 are on sale Ownership:50%
Other 10
Odinburg Residential OVERVIEW The ODINBURG residential district is located in the town of Odintsovo, a modern area considered to be one of the best and most environmentally clean towns in the Moscow region. (11 km from MKAD). A new highway to Moscow is in close proximity to the complex The entire residential district takes up an area of 33 hectares, which will host eight 8-to-25 story buildings. The residential element will offer 9,285 apartments and a total sellable area of 462K sq.m (Including city share)
Ownership:50%
CONSTRUCTION STATUS and SALES
(as of September 2017) Type GBA, sqm
Residential 831.1K
GSA, sqm/GSA commercial total: 462.0/19.6K GSA resi (Phase I), sqm: 154.8K GSA resi (Phase II), sqm: 307.2K GLA commercial, sqm: 19.6K Apartments, total : 9,285 Phase 1: 2,712 • Building 1 723 • Building 2 706 • Building 3 923 Phase2: 6,573 • Building 6 224 Parking units: 4,563 Book value, US$ m (including value 117 of unsold apartments): Outstanding loan, US$ m 0
Construction and pre-sales of apartments started in Building 3. As of today, 715 out of 723 contracts for sales of apartments in Building 1 (39.67 K sqm) have been signed; for Building 2 641 out of 706 contracts (38.37 K sqm) have been signed; for Building 3 29 out of 923 contracts (1.23 K sqm) have been signed and for Building 6 45 out of 224 contracts for sales of apartments in Building 6 (2.46 K sqm) have been signed. Parking lots sold: Parking lots sold: Building 1: 58 units out of 71. Building 2: 60 units out of 75. Building 6: 1 units out of 57. A credit line of RUR620 million obtained from Sberbank in March 2017 was fully repaid in September 2017. APARTMENTS DELIVERY
Sales complited for 9m2017
Apartments, quantity Apartments, sq.m. Parking places, quantity Comercial premises,quantity Comercial premises, sq.m. Apartments transferred to the City as per IC, quantity Apartments transferred to the City as per IC, sq.m.
613 36 981.20 62 6.00 760.90 11 970.20
Revenue Cost of sales Net profit Margin
RUB'000 3 308 877 3 154 196 154 681 4.67%
USD'000 56 723 54 071 2 652 4.67%
11
AFI Residence Paveletskaya As of September 2017 GBA (total), sqm:
136.1K
GBA (phase 1), sqm
52.9K
GBA (phase 2), sqm
27.6K
GSA (total), sqm:
79.4K
Apartments (total), amnt
549
Apartments (phase 1), amnt
175
Apartments (phase 2), amnt
270
“Special units” (total), sqm
11.4K
“Special units“ (total), amnt
187
Commercial space, sqm
17.3K
Commercial space (phase 1), sqm
6.1K
Commercial space (phase 2), sqm
1.4K
Book value, US$ m:
103
According to common market practice in Russia and to applicable Russian laws, preliminary sales of apartments during construction are done in the form of “contracts of participation in construction”, which are executed between the developer and purchaser of an apartment. These contracts are registered with state authorities and enter into legal force after this state registration. However the Company considers that signed contracts have high probability of registration and entering into legal force and reports “units sold” as the number of contracts signed with the apartments purchasers. “Special units” are premises legally not zoned for housing, but are widely sold for residence (a person cannot register in this address, but the premises can be used for housing). The prices of ‘special units’ are normally lower than that of similar apartments (properly zoned housing units).
The construction continues as planned; both phase I and phase II are under construction As of today, contracts for 315 apartments and “special units” (out of 632) have been signed Parking lots sold: 263 units.
12
AFI Residence Pochtovaya As of September 2017 GBA (total), sqm:
136.6K
GBA (phase 1), sqm
40.8K
GSA (total), sqm
84.9K
Apartments (total), amnt
626
Apartments (phase 1), amnt
187
“Special units” (total), sqm
16K
“Special units“ (total), amnt
281
Commercial space, sqm
16K
Commercial space (phase 1), sqm
8.6K
Book value, US$ m:
79
According to common market practice in Russia and to applicable Russian laws, preliminary sales of apartments during construction are done in the form of “contracts of participation in construction”, which are executed between the developer and purchaser of an apartment. These contracts are registered with state authorities and enter into legal force after this state registration. The Company considers that signed contracts have high probability of registration and entering into legal force and reports “units sold” as the number of contracts signed with the apartment purchasers.
The development is located in Bolshaya Pochtovaya Street, in the Central Administrative District of Moscow The project is planned in four phases. The construction of Phase I has started in March 2017 As of today, contracts for 48 apartments out of 187 have been signed.
13
AFI Residence Botanic Garden As of September 2017
GBA (total), sqm:
200.6K
GBA (phase 1), sqm
120.6K
GSA (total), sqm:
115.9K
GSA (phase 1), sqm
61.7K
Apartments (total), amnt
1340
Apartments (phase 1), amnt
805
Commercial space, sqm
8.6K
Commercial space (phase 1), sqm
2.4K
Book value, US$ m:
42
According to common market practice in Russia and to applicable Russian laws, preliminary sales of apartments during construction are done in the form of “contracts of participation in construction”, which are executed between the developer and purchaser of an apartment. These contracts are registered with state authorities and enter into legal force after this state registration. The Company considers that signed contracts have high probability of registration and entering into legal force and reports “units sold” as the number of contracts signed with the apartment purchasers.
The development is located in Proezd Serebryakova, in the Northern Administrative District of Moscow The project is planned in three phases. The construction of Phase I has started in March 2017. As of today, 78 out of 805 contracts for sales of apartments have been signed.
14
Development Projects - Commercial PLAZA IC
KOSSINSKAYA
(as of September 2017) Type GBA, sqm GLA, sqm Parking
Office A 50.2K 37.0K 521 pp
Status
Ready for construction launch 66.1 mil
MV, US$
(as of September 2017) Type GBA, sqm GLA, sqm Parking MV, US$
Plaza II Plaza IV Plaza IC
Mixed use 108.5K 70.0K 1,200 pp 28.4 mil
Kossinskaya
PLAZA IV
PLAZA II
(as of September 2017)
(as of September 2017) Type
Retail
GBA, sqm GLA, sqm Parking MV, US$
21K 12.4K 44 pp 20.0 mil
Other
Type GBA, sqm GLA/GSA, sqm
Office A 108.0K 58.7/2.7K
Parking Status
1,210 pp
MV, US$
65.4 mil
Design phase
Financial update SECTION 4
Consolidated P&L ITEM, US$ million (1) (2) (3)
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 9M 2017 9M 2016 Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual
USD=59 Construction consulting/management services 0.1 Rental income 25.5 Sale of residential and trading property 21.9
USD=57 0.0 30.6 27.9
USD=59 0.0 29.4 7.3
USD=58 0.2 85.5 57.0
USD=68 0.2 61.6 52.7
142.7
114.4
(4) TOTAL REVENUE
47.5
58.6
36.6
(5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
0.2 (12.3) (0.5) (20.3) (0.4)
0.4 (14.2) (2.6) (27.0) (1.7)
0.1 (14.1) (1.2) (6.9) 0.0
0.6 (40.5) (4.3) (54.2) (2.0)
2.8 (27.1) (5.3) (48.3) (1.0)
(33.4)
(45.0)
(22.0)
(100.4)
(78.8)
-
-
Other income Operating expenses Administrative expenses Cost of sales of residential and trading property Other expenses
(10) TOTAL EXPENSES (11)
Share of profit of equity-accounted investees
2.0
2.0
3.0
(12) GROSS PROFIT (LOSS)
16.1
13.6
14.6
44.2
38.6
(13)
(43.6)
42.7
(12.6)
(13.5)
(111.4)
(14) RESULTS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
(27.5)
56.3
2.0
30.7
(72.8)
(15) (16) (17) (18) (19)
7.5 0.4 (16.5) 28.7
(0.0) 0.1 (12.9) (18.9)
0.2 (13.2) 6.6
7.5 0.7 (42.6) 16.4
1.8 1.7 (33.1) 44.1
12.6 (7.4)
(31.7) 24.6
(6.4) (4.4)
(25.5) 12.8
12.7 (58.3)
(0.5) 8.9
(1.8) (15.9)
(0.7) (2.3)
(2.9) (9.3)
(0.2) 2.8
1.0
6.9
(7.4)
0.6
Valuation gain (loss) on investment property Profit on sale/disposal of properties/investment Profit on sale of Investment property Finance income Finance expense FX Gain/( Loss)
(20) Net finance income/(costs) (21) PROFIT BEFORE INCOME TAX (22) (23)
Current income tax Deferred income tax
(24) PROFIT (LOSS) FOR THE PERIOD
(55.7)
17
Balance Sheet as of 30 September 2017 #
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25) (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32)
Investment property Investment property under development Property, plant and equipment Long-term loans receivable Inventory of real estate Total non-current assets Trading property Trading properties under construction Inventory Short-term loans receivable Trade and other receivables Current tax assets Cash, cash equivalents and tradable securities Total current assets TOTAL ASSETS Equity Share capital Share premium Translation reserve Capital reserve Retained earnings TOTAL EQUITY Minority interest Long-term loans and borrowings Deferred tax liabilities Deferred income Total non-current liabilities Short-term loans and borrowings Trade and other payables Advances from customers Income tax payable Total current liabilities
(33) TOTAL LIABILITIES (34) TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Change YoY 30.09.2017 30.06.2017 30.09.2016 US$ mn US$ mn US$ mn US$ mn % 926.1 926.1 904.4 21.7 2% 159.9 159.9 231.9 (72.0) (31%) 77.4 76.4 30.1 47.3 157% 0.0 0.0 15.3 (15.3) (100%) 0.0 0.0 22.7 (22.7) (100%) 1 163.4 1 162.5 1 204.4 (40.9) (3%) 15.0 21.4 7.4 7.6 103% 327.6 302.7 203.4 124.2 61% 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 82% 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.8 4285% 53.8 51.6 37.4 16.4 44% 3.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 118% 67.7 25.5 20.4 47.3 232% 469.4 404.3 270.8 198.7 73% 1 632.9 1 566.7 1 475.1 157.7 11% 1.0 1763.4 (305.1) (19.3) (667.5) 772.5 (0.1) 48.3 1 31.1 12.1 91.5 647.0 1 40.9 81.1 0.0 769.0
1.0 1763.4 (308.9) (19.3) (660.2) 776.0 (0.1) 23.7 29.4 11.3 64.4 634.0 45.9 46.7 0.0 726.6
1.0 1763.4 (313.2) (9.2) (675.6) 766.4 (3.9) 620.8 16.0 9.8 646.6 0.7 29.5 35.8 0.0 66.0
(0.0) (0%) (0.0) (0%) 8.1 (3%) (10.1) 110% 8.1 (1%) 6.0 1% 3.8 (96%) (572.5) (92%) 15.1 94% 2.3 24% (555.1) (86%) 646.3 93999% 11.3 38% 45.3 126% 0.0 703.0 1064%
860.5
791.0
712.6
147.9
21%
1 632.9
1 566.7
1 475.2
157.7
11%
Notes:
Two new loans at Kislovodsk and Zheleznovodsk have been drown down in Q3. The AFIMALL City loan and the Ozerkovskaya III loan are classified as short-term borrowings (maturity in less than 12m) 1.
18
Loans and cash position as of 30 September 2017 Gross balance of the bank loan portfolio (as of 30 September 2017) – US$ 695.0 million Total cash balance and deposits (as of 30 September 2017) – US$67.7 million (including marketable securities)
Project
Bank
Historical debt limit
Balance as of 30 Sep, 2017, (US$ mn)
Available (US$ mn)
Nominal Interest rate
Currency
170.3
-
9.5%
RUB
281.2
-
3m Libor + 5.02%
USD
451.6
0
7.3%
USD
26.01.2018
USD USD USD
22.02.2022 20.09.2022 20.09.2022
VTB AFIMALL
RUR 21 bn
Maturity
01.04.2018
VTB TOTAL AFIMALL
Ozerkovskaya III
VTB
$220 mn
191.5
0
3m Libor + 8% from 24.01.15 to 20.03.15 3m Libor + 7% from 21.03.15 to 26.01.18
Kislovodsk #1 Kislovodsk #2 Zheleznovodsk
VTB VTB VTB
$22.5 mn $11.6 mn $18.4 mn
21.9 $11.6 mn $18.4 mn
0 0 0
3m Libor + 4.5% 5.5% 5.5%
Financial covenants
Ozerkovskaya III: Following execution of addenda to loan agreements in September 2016, the covenants in the Ozerkovskaya III facility (the LTV covenant and the DSCR covenant) were removed. Kislovodsk #1, Kislovodsk #2 and Zheleznovodsk: 1) EBITDA/((Interest rate (LTM) + Debt (last reporting date)): >=0.15X; 2) Projected DSCR: =>1.2x; 3) Positive value of net assets
19
Gross/Net Asset Value PROJECT
Book Value
Book Value Bank Loan
Net Company Share
30.06.2017
30.09.2017
30.09.2017
30.09.2017
671 12 12 9 199 4 20 926 66 65 28 0
671 12 12 9 199 4 20 926 66 65 28 0
(452)
219 12 12 9 7 4 20 283 66 65 28 0
TOTAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY UNDER DEVELOPMENT:
160
160
0
Ozerkovskaya Phase II (26) Odinburg Aquamarine Hotel Plaza SPA Zheleznovodsk Pyatigorskaya (Park Plaza Kislovodsk) Plaza Spa Kislovodsk TOTAL PROPERTY PLANT AND EQUIPMENT: Odinburg Botanic Garden Paveletskaya II Bolyshaya Pochtovaya
2 7 9 16 12 4 44 76 105 32 91 75
2 13 15 16 12 4 45 76 104 42 103 79
TOTAL TRADING PROPERTY UNDER DEVELOPMENT:
303
328
0
328
1 473
1 505
(695)
810
AFI Mall Berezhkovskaya (100%) Paveletskaya I Plaza H20 Ozerkovskaya III Plaza Ib Plaza II TOTAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY: Plaza Ic Plaza IV (100%) Kossinskaya Bolyshaya Pochtovaya
TOTAL TRADING PROPERTY:
TOTAL PORTFOLIO:
(192)
(643)
0 (18) (33) (52) 0
Loans To Assets Value = 46% (LTV ratio) Loans To Equity (LTE ratio)
= 90%
160 2 13 15 16 (7) 4 11 25 104 42 103 79
CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS DEFFERED TAX LIABILITY TOTAL OTHER ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
68 (31) (74)
TOTAL EQUITY:
772 20
Market Update SECTION 5
Macro Overview and RE Investment Market RUSSIAN MACROECONIMIC OVERVIEW • Russian economic growth: OECD projects the 2017 GDP growth at +1.4%, and 1.6% for 2018. • Exchange rates: The rouble was stable during Q3 2017, supported by relatively strong oil prices. The spot RUR/USD rate during Q3 2017 fluctuated between 56.54 and 60.75. The rate at 30.09.2017 was RUR58.02 (vs. RUR59.09 on 30.06.2017). • The Central Bank of Russia (“CBR”), has reduced the key lending rate to 8.25 % in its October 2017 meeting (8.5% in the September meeting), quoting lower than planned inflation. At the same time the CBR seemingly opposes drastic reductions. • Inflation: The consumer prices inflation in September 2017 was quite low at 3.0% (annualised) (with CBR target at 4.0%).
RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKET • During 9M 2017, about US$2.7 billion (JLL) were invested in Russian commercial real estate (13% decrease year-on-year). • According to JLL, in 9M 2017 37% of the volume were invested in the retail segment, 31% in office and 15% in hotels and warehouses. 81% of the invested capital was of Russian origin. • The biggest transactions during the 9M were the disposal of the shopping centre “Gorbushkin Dvor” in Moscow to a Russian private investor (the transaction is estimated at EUR445 million) and the sale of Vozdvizhenka BC (“Voentorg”) to Fosun Group and Avica Management Co. (estimated at RUR10 billion) Forecasted Investment Volume in 2017 (USD billion)
JLL 4.5
CBRE
C&W
5
4.6
*
* JLL estimation excludes acquisitions by end-users and joint ventures
Inflation, USD/RUB and CBR policy rates
Source: CBR, RBC, OECD 22
Source: C&W, JLL, CBRE
Office and Retail Markets Overview OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW
RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW
• The take up in 9M 2017 was 769,526 sqm (JLL) The take up was led by the financial sector and manufacturing. 74,583 sqm of new office space has been delivered in Q3, including Class A Oasis and Fili Grad BC (95,726 sqm for 9M 2017) • The vacancy rates in class A and B remain high: According to C&W, in Class A the vacancy was recorded at 17.2% (vs 18.2% in Q2) and in Class B at 11.9% (vs 13.2% in Q2). Overall vacancy was 13.2%. • In Q3 2017 the rents remained relatively stable. Asking rents for Class A non-prime central premises were at US$600-750 psqmpa. Asking rents for off-centre Class A office buildings were US$400-670 and for Class B $200-400. Rouble denominated rents continue to prevail, with Class B working almost exclusively in roubles.
Base Rent, US$ psqmpa
A class
Source: JLL, C&W
B class (B+&B-)
Key indicators
Units
Base rent Class A (Prime), US$ psqmpa
600-750
Base rent Class A, US$ psqmpa
400-670
Base rent Class B, US$ psqmpa
200-400
• One new shopping centre, Vegas Kuntsevo (113.4K sqm GLA) was opened in Moscow in Q3 2017. This is the only new shopping centre open during the 9 months period. • 6 new international brands entered the market in Q3 2017. Food retail chains have had most noticeable expansion. At the same time, some known brands left the market in Q3: Debenhams, C&A and Mexx among them. • The vacancy rate across Moscow shopping centres as of the end of Q3 2017 was at 6.0% (JLL). • Turnover rent with a low minimum rent continues to be the most common lease structure. Fixed exchange rates are commonly provided to tenants. According to a recent report by JLL and Sberbank CIB, only about 8% of shopping centres leases were foreign currency denominated.
C&W Prime rental rate indicator, US$ psqmpa
Key indicators (JLL)
Units
Prime rent, RUR psqma (prime shopping
195,000
centre gallery)
Overall vacancy,%
13.2%
Vacancy rate, Class A, %
17.2%
Average rent, RUR psqma
74,000
Vacancy rate,%
Source: JLL, C&W
6.0%
23
Residential Market Overview RESIDENTIAL MARKET MOSCOW AND MOSCOW REGION
Average weighted asking price in primary residential market of “old” Moscow, by districts, end of Q3 2017 (RUR psqm)
MOSCOW:
• At the end of Q3 2017 the supply on the “Old Moscow” primary residential market (excluding “apartments”) was about 2.85 million sqm (about 44,400 residential units), a 0.3% increase vs Q2 2017. The supply in “New Moscow” was about 470.8 thousand sqm, a 10% decrease vs Q2 2017 (data by Miel Real Estate).
• By the end of Q3 2017 the weighted average asking price in the newly built business class residential market in Moscow amounted to RUR243,400 psqm (US$4,196, USD/RUB = 58). Compared with the end of Q2 2017, the average prices decreased by 0.5% in roubles. In the comfort class the weighted average asking price was RUR153,4 psqm (US$2,645, USD/RUB = 58).
North North-East
East North-West
Central West
MOSCOW REGION:
• At the end of Q3 2017, the primary market supply (newly built residential units) in the Moscow region amounted to 2.8 million sqm (a decrease of 9.7% vs end of Q2 2017, according to Miel Real Estate). • In Q3 2017 the weighted average price per sqm in the Moscow region was RUR84,500 (US$1,457, USD/RUB = 58), a 0.5% decrease in roubles compared to end of Q2 2017 (data by Miel Real Estate). Source: Miel Real Estate
South-East
South South-West
Source: NDV Real Estate 2 4