Q1 2016 IR Presentation FINANCIAL & BUSINESS RESULTS May 2016
Disclaimer This document does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of AFI Development Plc (the "Company") or any of its subsidiaries in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. None of the Company or any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the document. This communication is only being distributed to and is only directed at (1) qualified institutional buyers (within the meaning of Rule 144A of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") or (2) accredited investors (as defined in Rule 501(a) of Regulation D adopted pursuant to the Securities Act). Any person who is not a "qualified institutional buyer" or "accredited investor" should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. This document contains "forward-looking statements", which include all statements other than statements of historical facts, including, without limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words "targets", "believes", "expects", "aims", "intends", "will", "may", "anticipates", "would", "could" or similar expressions or the negative thereof. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond the Company's control that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking, including, among others, the achievement of anticipated levels of profitability, growth, cost and synergy of recent acquisitions, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date as of which they are made, and the Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the Company's expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements are based. Neither the Company, nor any of its agents, employees or advisors intends or has any duty or obligation to supplement, amend, update or revise any of the forward-looking statements contained in this document. The information contained in this document is provided as at the date of this document and is subject to change without notice.
2
Company Overview SECTION 1
AFI Development at a glance Market Cap, as of 17 May 2016 Mkt price GDR, as of 17 May 2016 Mkt price B share, as of 17 May 2016 NAV (Equity), as of 31 March 2016 NAV per share, as of 31 March 2016 Portfolio Value*
US$133 mln US$0.120 US$0.099 US$814 mln US$0.78 US$ 1.4 bn
BUSINESS
PORTFOLIO VALUE*
HISTORY *Gross Asset Value of Portfolio based on JLL Valuation as for 31 March 2016 and BSV of Land Bank projects, Trading Properties and Hotels (incl. JV)
BRAND
•Full cycle real estate developer •Focus on unique large scale commercial and residential projects •Primary market: Moscow, Russia
•14 years on the market •Admitted to LSE in 2007 •Premium listing from 2010 •Free float – 35.12%
•Strong global brand •Subsidiary of Africa Israel Group (64.88% owner) , an international conglomerate with global focus on real estate, construction and infrastructure
FINANCIAL STABILITY
• Liquidity position: US$42.4 million as at 31 December, 2015 • Secured financing for on-going projects • 42% Debt to Total Assets ratio**
TRACK RECORD
•14 completed projects with total c. 0.6 mln sqm of space •Impeccable credit history •Market reputation for high quality and professional property management
PORTFOLIO
• Substantial income generating portfolio. Major project AFIMALL City • 8 Development Projects & land bank
** Bank loans only
4
Key Projects in Moscow Yielding Projects (retail, offices and hotels) US$942 mn
Value** (JLL, 31 March 2016): Plaza II, Plaza Ib
Riverside Station Riverside St-n
AFIMALL
PLAZA SPA Kisl*
PLAZA SPA Zhel*
Aquamarine III
GLA (excl. hotels), sqm:
193.1K sqm
* Outside of Moscow * * Hotels presented at cost value Aquamarine Htl
Paveletskaya I
H2O
Projects Under Development Value**
US$433 mn
( JLL, 31 March 2016): Odinburg**
Paveletskaya II
Plaza IIa
KOSSINSKAYA Kossinskaya
Plaza Ic
B. Pochtovaya
Botanic Garden
Plaza IV
GLA, sqm:
231.4K
GSA, sqm:
730.7K
** Odinburg and Botanic Garden presented at cost value
Land Bank Yielding Projects Value (BSV):
Projects under Development Completed Assets
US$7 mn
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on JLL valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
5
Project Update. Yielding Projects SECTION 2
AFIMALL City Update
Ownership:50%
(as of March 2016) Total GBA, sqm
283.2K
Total GLA(shops, offices, storage), sqm
107.2K
Occupancy
(as part of GLA total)
Parking lots Terminal NOI (JLL est.)
82%
The occupancy level was at 82% at the end of March 2016, a 4% increase compared to end of Q4 2015. During the quarter, AFIMALL City welcomed several new tenants, including B&G Store (children apparel), Pepen (women apparel) and Mario Mikke (shoes and accessories).
2,075 US$ 87.55 mn
MV (JLL est.)
US$ 666 mn
Loan balance as for end of Q1, 2016
US$ 420 mn
ITEM, US$ million (1) Revenue (2) Operating expenses (3) NOI
Actual Actual Q1 2016 Q1 2015 16.1 19.1 -3.7 -5.4 12.4 13.7
* During Q1 2016 the Company received a court ruling for AFIMALL City as for the calculation of property tax. This ruling allowed the Company to reverse circa US$3m as other income
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements” based on JLL valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
7
Yielding Properties Building
AFIMALL
Ozerkovskaya III*
Berezhkovskaya Tverskaya Plaza II
Tvesrkaya Plaza Ib
Paveletskaya I
Aquamarine Hotel
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow City
CBD
Moscow
CBD
CBD
Retail
Office A & Street Retail
Office B
Office & Street Retail
Office & Street Retail
Office B
Office B
GBA, sqm
283 182
61 579
11 612
5 848
2 338
16 246
GLA, sqm
107 208
46 247
10 250
4 967
2 050
2 075
466
140
-
82%
2%
61%
87.6
28.8
666
197
Location Class
Parking lots (total), # Ocupancy rate (31.03.2016), % NOI term., (JLL est.), US$ mn MV**, US$ mn
Moscow
H2O Moscow
Plaza SPA Kislovodsk
Moscow
Plaza SPA Zheleznovodsk
TOTAL
Caucasus region
Caucasus region
Hotel
Hotel
Hotel
10 080
8 931
25 000
11 701
437K
13 412
8 990
159 keys
275 keys
134 keys
193K
-
126
81
15
46
14
98%
89%
2%
57%
2.7
1.5
0.6
2.5
11.5
9.2
3.4
11.5
CBD
78%***
76% ***
75%***
1.7
-
-
-
125
8.9
13.1
9.1
942
11.6 ****
* GBA and GLA presented after disposal of Bld. 1. ** MV based on JLL valuation as for 31.12.2015 (AFIMALL and Ozerkovskaya III have updated valuations as of 31.3.2016). Hotels presented at cost value *** The hotel occupancy is presented as the annual average **** MV of the Plaza Spa Kislovodsk is presented as 50% (the Company share in the project)
Note: the NOI projections are “forward looking statements� based on JLL valuation assumptions and Company estimations and they can be realized or not realized due to factors beyond the Company's control including, among others, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions
8
Project Update. Development Projects SECTION 3
Odinburg Residential GBA, 821.1K sqm GSA residential, sqm 453.0K STATUS: Construction Bld.#2 SALE STATUS: Bld#1, Bld#2 are on sale Ownership:50%
Other 10
Odinburg Residential OVERVIEW The ODINBURG residential district is located in the town of Odintsovo, a modern area considered to be one of the best and most environmentally clean towns in the Moscow region. (11 km from MKAD). A new highway to Moscow is in close proximity to the complex. The entire residential district takes up an area of 33 hectares, which will host eight 8-to-25 story buildings. The residential element will offer 9,059 apartments and a total sellable area of 453K sq.m. (Including city share).
Ownership:50%
CONSTRUCTION STATUS and SALES As of today, 698 out of 723 contracts for sales of apartments in Building 1 (37.7K sqm) have been signed, while for Building 2 158 out of 706 contracts (6.7K sqm) have been signed. (as of March 2016) Type
Residential
GBA, sqm
821.1K
GSA, sqm/GSA commercial total: GSA resi (Phase I), sqm: GSA resi (Phase II), sqm: GLA commercial, sqm: Apartments, total : Phase 1: Phase2: • Stage 1 • Stage 2 Parking units:
453.0/19.6K 150.9K 311.9K 16.8K
9,142 2,569 6,573 723 (Sold 698) 706 (Sold 158) 4,563
Parking units: Building 1: 39 units out of 71 sold to date. Building 2: 4 units out of 71 sold to date. Construction of Bld.#2 is ongoing. Bldg#1 completed, delivery of apartments started in March Construction is funded with proceeds from sales. APARTMENTS DELIVERY
# of delivered appartments Total sq.m. delivered
Bldg 1 (delivered in Q1 2016) 104 6 050
Revenue
7 297 427
Cost of sales
6 182 248
Net profit Net profit margin
1 115 179 15%
11
AFI Residence Paveletskaya As of March 2016 GBA (total), sqm:
133.5K
GBA (phase 1), sqm
50.4K
GSA (total), sqm:
78.8K
Flats (total), amnt
549
Flats (phase 1), amnt
175
“Apartments” (total), amnt
220
“Apartments “ (phase 1), amnt
220
Commercial space, sqm
17.1K
Commercial space (phase 1), sqm
5.8K
Book value, US$ mn:
56.4
According to common market practice in Russia and to applicable Russian laws, preliminary sales of apartments during construction are done in the form of “contracts of participation in construction”, which are executed between the developer and purchaser of an apartment. These contracts are registered with state authorities and enter into legal force after this state registration. However the Company considers that signed contracts have high probability of registration and entering into legal force and reports “units sold” as the number of contracts signed with the apartments purchasers. “Apartments” are premises legally not zoned for housing, but are widely sold for residence (a person cannot register in this address, but the premises cannot be used for housing). The prices of ‘apartments’ are normally lower than this of similar flats
Construction of Phase 1 started in December 2015. As of 17 March 2016, contracts for 45 flats and 4 “apartments” have been signed.
Parking lots sold: 32 units.
(properly zoned housing units).
12
Development Projects - Residential POCHTOVAYA
PAVELETSKAYA II
Botanic Garden
(as March 2016) (as of March 2016) Type
Resi
GBA, sqm
133.5K
GSA/GLA, sqm
78.8/17.1K
Parking
1,760 pp
Status
Construction launched in Q4 2015
MV, US$
55.5 mil
Pochtovaya
Type
Resi
GBA, sqm
170.3K
GSA/GLA, sqm
56.9/34.2K
Parking
1,771 pp
Status
Launch of construction in H2 2016
MV, US$
71.5 mil
Paveletskaya
BOTANIC GARDEN
(as of March 2016)
Other
Type
Resi
GBA, sqm
255.0K
GSA/GLA, sqm
107.5/5,1K
Parking
1,334 pp
Status
Construction permit received. Project concept being reviewed
MV, US$
18.6 mil 13
Development Projects - Commercial PLAZA IC
KOSSINSKAYA
(as of March 2016) Type GBA, sqm GLA, sqm Parking
Office A 61.8K 37.0K 467 pp
Status
Ready for construction launch 65.5 mil
MV, US$
(as of March 2016) Type GBA, sqm GLA, sqm Parking MV, US$
Plaza IV Plaza IC
Mixed use 108.0K 70.0K 1,200 pp 27.8 mil
Kossinskaya
PLAZA IV*
(as of March 2016)
Other
Type GBA, sqm GLA/GSA, sqm
Office A 108.0K 58.6/2.7K
Parking Status
1,210 pp
MV, US$
Preparing for construction 68.6 mil
*For 100% of the project
Financial update SECTION 4
Consolidated P&L
Actual Actual Q1 2016 Q1 2015
ITEM, US$ million (1) (2) (3) Ownership:50%
Construction consulting/management services Rental income Sale of residential and trading property
(4) TOTAL REVENUE (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
Other income Operating expenses Administrative expenses Cost of sales of residential and trading property Other expenses
(10) TOTAL EXPENSES (11)
Share of profit of equity-accounted investees
0.0 20.0 7.3
0.0 24.4 -
27.4
24.4
2.2 (7.7) (1.7) (6.2) (0.0)
1.1 (11.4) (2.7) (0.4)
(13.4)
(13.4)
1.1
0.1
(12) GROSS PROFIT (LOSS)
15.1
11.2
(13) (14)
(60.3)
21.4
(15) RESULTS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
(45.2)
32.0
(16) (17) (18) (19)
(0.0) 0.7 (10.7) 20.5
1.5 (11.3) (16.2)
10.5 (34.7)
(26.0) 6.0
(0.1) 2.9
(0.2) 0.3
Valuation gain (loss) on investment property Impairment loss for trading property and hotels Profit on sale/disposal of properties/investment Finance income Finance expenses FX Gain/(Loss)
(20) Net finance income/(costs) (21) PROFIT BEFORE INCOME TAX (22) (23)
Current income tax Deferred income tax
(24) PROFIT (LOSS) FOR THE PERIOD
(31.9)
* Other income mainly due to property tax repayment
6.0
Other 16
Balance Sheet as of 31 March 2016 #
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25) (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32) (33) (34)
Investment property Investment property under Investment in Joint Ventures Property, plant and equipment Long-term loans receivable VAT recoverable Inventory of real estate Total non-current assets Trading property Trading properties under Inventory Short-term loans receivable Trade and other receivables Current tax assets Cash, cash equivalents and tradable securities Total current assets TOTAL ASSETS Equity Share capital Share premium Translation reserve Capital reserve Retained earnings TOTAL EQUITY Minority interest Long-term loans and borrowings Deferred tax liabilities Deferred income Total non-current liabilities Short-term loans and borrowings Trade and other payables Advances from customers Income tax payable Total current liabilities
(35) TOTAL LIABILITIES (36) TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
31.03.2016 31.12.2015 31.03.2015 Change YoY US$ mn US$ mn US$ mn US$ mn % 912.6 933.7 1 375.4 (462.8) (32%) 237.0 238.9 431.5 (194.4) (33%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.3 26.3 33.5 (5.2) (3%) 9.5 14.3 17.6 (8.1) (36%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (9%) 20.4 18.6 20.1 0.3 12% 1 207.9 1 231.8 1 878.2 (670.3) (32%) 35.2 2.1 2.9 32.3 1545% 178.7 204.4 134.9 43.9 (15%) 0.5 0.5 0.5 (0.0) 26% 4.5 0.1 0.1 4.4 4077% 29.5 29.0 39.4 (9.8) (22%) 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.3 11% 32.5
42.4
74.7
(42.2)
282.7 1 490.6
280.1 1 512.0
253.9 2 132.0
1.0 1763.4 (324.7) (9.2) (652.3) 778.3 (3.9) (0.0) 18.8 9.1 27.9 612.9 22.3 53.0 0.0 688.2
1.0 1763.4 (339.0) (9.2) (620.8) 795.5 (3.9) 389.8 25.6 8.5 423.9 224.3 18.2 54.0 0.0 296.5
1.0 1763.4 (320.7) 0.0 (152.4) 1 291.4 (8.7) 632.7 103.6 12.2 748.5 30.6 24.5 45.7 0.0 100.8
712.3
716.4
840.7
(125.4)
(15%)
1 490.6
1 512.0
2 132.0
(595.2)
(29%)
* Change in AFIMall value due to the decrease in rental rates
(48%)
28.8 (10%) (641.4) (29%) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0% (3.9) (1%) (9.2) (499.9) 265% (513.1) (38%) 4.8 553% (632.7) (100%) (84.8) (84%) (3.1) (1%) (720.6) (96%) 582.3 1178% (2.2) 12% 7.3 (0%) 0.0 587.4 470%
* In Q1 2016 AFIMall loan was reclassified from non-current to current liabilities.
17
Loans and cash position as of 31 March 2016 Gross balance of the bank loan portfolio (as of 31 March 2016) – US$611 million Total cash balance and deposits (as of 31 March 2016) – US$35.1 million (including marketable securities)
Project
Bank
Historical debt limit
VTB AFIMALL TOTAL AFIMALL
TOTAL/AVERAGE RATE
Available (US$ mn)
Nominal Interest rate
Currency
$143
-
9.5%
RUB
$277
-
3m Libor + 5.02%
USD
$420
$0
6.74%
$0
3m Libor + 8% from 24.01.15 to 20.03.15 3m Libor + 7% from 21.03.15 to 26.01.18
RUR 21 bn VTB
Ozerkovskaya III
Balance as of March 31, 2016 (US$ mn)
VTB
$220
Maturity
01.04.2018
$191
$611
USD
26.01.2018
6.90%
Financial covenants On 29 March 2016 the operating subsidiary of the Company, AFI RUS LLC received a letter from Bank VTB PJSC ("the Bank"). The letter stated that the Bank had reached a conclusion that Bellgate Construction Limited and Krown Investments LLC (the borrowers under the AFIMALL City and the Ozerkovskaya III loan facilities respectively) had experienced, in the opinion of the Bank, material adverse changes in their financial conditions and there had appeared other circumstances that indicate that their obligations under the loan facility agreements could be not met on time. According to the letter, the Bank proposed that the Company "implement steps aimed at removing possible negative consequences of the aforesaid circumstances, no later than 30 calendar days from today", otherwise the Bank will exercise its right under the loan facility agreements to claim early repayment of the loans. Based on this, the total amount of the outstanding loan of Bellgate Construction Ltd (US$420 million) was also reclassified to current liabilities. The Bank and the Company are considering the possibility of reaching an agreement to release the AFI Development Group from both loans owed to the Bank of current balance of US$611.1 million. The Bank has communicated to the Company that it expects to conclude the negotiations not later than 31 May 2016
18
Gross/Net Asset Value PROJECT
Book Value Book Value Bank Loan 31.12.2015
AFI Mall Berezhkovskaya (100%) Paveletskaya I Plaza H20 Ozerkovskaya III Plaza Ib Plaza II Sadovaya -Samotechnaya TOTAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY: Plaza Ic Plaza II a Plaza IV (100%) Kossinskaya Bolyshaya Pochtovaya Paveletskaya II Ruza
31.03.2016 31.03.2016
31.03.2016
685 16 12 9 199 3 9 1 934
666 16 12 9 197 3 9 1 913
66 2 69
66 0 69
66 0 69
28 71 0 4
28 71 0 4
28 71 0 4
TOTAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY UNDER DEVELOPMENT:
239
237
Ozerkovskaya Phase II (26) Odinburg Aquamarine Hotel Plaza SPA Zheleznovodsk Pyatigorskaya (Park Plaza Kislovodsk) Plaza Spa Kislovodsk (JV) (50%) TOTAL PROPERTY PLANT AND EQUIPMENT: Odinburg Botanic Garden Paveletskaya II
2 0 2 13 9 3 12 37 148 19 56
2 33 35 14 10 4 12 40 119 20 59
TOTAL TRADING PROPERTY UNDER DEVELOPMENT:
223
199
0
199
1 435
1 424
(611)
813
TOTAL TRADING PROPERTY:
TOTAL PORTFOLIO:
(420)
Net Company Share
(191)
(611)
0
0
0
246 16 12 9 6 3 9 1 301
Loans To Assets Value = 43% (LTV ratio) Loans To Equity (LTE ratio)
= 79%
237 2 33 35 14 10 4 12 40 119 20 59
CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS DEFFERED TAX LIABILITY TOTAL OTHER ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
33 (19) (48)
TOTAL EQUITY:
778
19
Market Update SECTION 5
Macro Overview and RE Investment Market RUSSIAN MACROECONIMIC OVERVIEW • Russian economic growth: In 2015 the Russian economy contracted by 3.7%. Based on Q1 2016 data, Oxford Economics projects further 2.1% contraction in 2016 (baseline scenario). • Exchange rates: With the oil prices rebounding in Q1 2016, the spot RUR/USD rate fluctuated between 67.5 and 82.63. The rouble is currently trading in the range 65-68 roubles per dollar. The rate at 31.03.2016 was RUR67.6076. • The Central Bank of Russia (“CBR”) continues to keep the key lending rate unchanged at 11% in order to control inflation (the rate was not changed in the April meeting). • Inflation: The inflation continues its downward trend, after sharp decrease in 2015. The consumer prices inflation in March 2016 was at 7.3% (annualised). However it remains well above the CBR long-term target of 4%.
RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKET • In Q1 2016, about US$1.9 billion (CBRE) were invested by domestic and foreign investors in Russian commercial real estate • According to CBRE, 56% of the volume was invested in the office segment, which remains the most attractive, and 30% in hotels. 7% were invested in warehouses (the notable transactions were the disposal of the hotel portfolio of the Russian Railways and of two PNK warehouses) Forecasted Investment Volume in 2016 (USD billion)
JLL
CBRE
C&W
4
4.5
N/A
* JLL estimation excludes acquisitions by end-users and joint ventures
CBR key lending rate and inflation
Source: Oxford Economics Source: Rosstat, CBR, Oxford Economics, C&W, JLL, CBRE
21
Office and Retail Markets Overview OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW
RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW
• The take up in Q1 2016 demonstrated 17% growth compared to Q1 2015. 167.6 thousand sqm of quality office premises were taken up during the quarter, versus 143.3 thousand sqm in Q1 2015. The delivery of quality space amounted to 63.1 thousand sqm for the quarter, all of them in Class B (a drop of 30% vs Q1 2015).
• No new shopping centres were opened in Moscow in Q1 2016, while the JLL estimation for the whole 2016 is 460,000 sqm of GLA.
• The vacancy rates in class A and B are high: In Class A the vacancy in was recorded at 23.1% (vs 24.3% in Q1 2015) and in Class B at 15.4% (vs 12.2% in Q1 2015). Vacancy in the Moscow-City submarket is estimated at 16.4% (JLL). • In Q1 2016 the rents remained relatively stable. Asking rents for Class A non-prime central premises were at US$600750 psqmpa. Asking rents for off-centre Class A office buildings were US$400-600 and for Class B $200-400. Rouble denominated rents prevail in Class B space and in non-prime Class A. Key indicators Base Rent, US$ psqmpa
Units
• Eight new brands entered the market in Q1 2016, mainly in the fashion, footwear & accessories category. • The vacancy rate as of the end of 2015 was at 8.0% (JLL). • The fixed exchange rates are commonly provided to tenants, while most new leases are roubledenominated. Turnover rent with a low minimum rent is the most common lease structure.
C&W Prime rental rate indicator, US$ psqmpa
Key indicators
Units
Prime rent, US$ psqma
1,5003,220
Base rent Class A (Prime), US$ psqmpa
600-800
Base rent Class A, US$ psqmpa
400-600
(prime shopping centre gallery)
Base rent Class B, US$ psqmpa
200-400
Base rent, US$ psqma
1,230
Vacancy rate,%
8.0%
Overall vacancy,%
17%
Vacancy rate, Class A, %
23%
Source: CBRE Marketview Moscow Office Q1 2016, C&W MarketBeat Q1 2016, JLL Moscow Office Market Q1 2016
Source: JLL Moscow Shopping Centre Market Q1 2016, CBRE Moscow Retail MarketView Q1 2016 22
Residential Market Overview RESIDENTIAL MARKET MOSCOW AND MOSCOW REGION
MOSCOW:
• According to the Moscow Statistics Agency, the volume of commissioned residential construction in Moscow for the first two months of 2016 amounted to 501.6 million sqm, which is 35% higher than in for the same period in 2014 (the official statistics does not include “apartments”, which legally are not considered residential). • At the end of Q1 2016 the supply at the Moscow primary residential market (excluding “apartments”) was about 2.3 million sqm (about 33,500 residential units), an increase of 32% compared to the end of Q3 2015.
Average weighted asking price in primary residential market of “old” Moscow, by districts, end of Q1 2016 (USD/RUR ‘000 psqm)
NORTHERN USD
3,250 219.7
RUR ‘000
MOSCOW REGION (< 30 km from MKAD):
USD
2,770
USD RUR ‘000
RUR ‘000
187.1
WESTERN USD RUR ‘000
2,370 160.3
EASTERN
CENTRAL USD
5,190
RUR ‘000
350.6
3,320 224.4
2,830 191.0
SOUTH-EASTERN USD
2,090
RUR ‘000
141.1
SOUTH-WESTERN USD RUR ‘000
• At the end of Q1 2016, the primary market supply (newly built residential units) in the Moscow region amounted to about 10,139 residential units (a decrease of 2.5% vs Q4 2015). • As of March 2016 the weighted average price per sqm in Moscow region was RUR80,300 (US$1,216, USD/RUB = 66)
RUR ‘000
NORTH-WESTERN
• Supply of “apartments” at the end of Q1 2016 was estimated at 624.5 thousand sqm, a 17% decrease vs end of Q4 2015. The apartments constituted about 21% of the “old Moscow” newly constructed supply. • By the end of March 2016 the weighted average asking price in the newly built business class residential market in Moscow amounted to RUR252,990 psqm (US$3,840, USD/RUB = 66). Compared with the end of December 2015, prices decreased in average by 2.1% in roubles. In the comfort class the weighted average asking price was RUR156,730 psqm (US$2,380, USD/RUB = 66)
NORTH-EASTERN USD
2,850 192.4
SOUTHERN USD RUR ‘000
2,410 162.9
Source: Blackwood Q1 2016 Moscow Residential Market Overview
Source: Blackwood Q1 2016 Moscow Residential Market Overview, Peresvet Q1 2016 Moscow Region Primary Residential Market Overview
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