AfricaWorld Newspaper 1-15 April 2015 by AfricaWorld Newspaper

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General Muhammadu Buhari Historic Election Victory

By. Abdul Yusuf Former military ruler Rtrd. General Muhammadu Buhari has made history by becoming the first opposition candidate to win a presidential election in Nigeria. Continue on page 2

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General Muhammadu Buhari Historic Election Victory Ny Abdul Yusuf

Kaduna. Some Nigerians in DiaspoGen Buhari beat in- ras also joined in cumbent Goodluck the celebration in Jonathan by more countries like Irethan 2.5 million land, UK, US, Gervotes, final results many and other EU showed. Member States. Mr Jonathan telephoned his rival to concede defeat. Gen Buhari’s supporters took to the streets to celebrate. Observers have generally praised the election, though there have been allegations of fraud.

Nigeria’s electoral commission officially declared the 72-year-old general the winner of the presidential election early on Wednesday morning.

The APC won 15,424,921 votes and Mr Jonathan’s People’s DemoIn the outgoing cratic Party (PDP) President Goodgained 12,853,162 luck Ebele Jonavotes. than’s speech, he Gen Buhari’s vicsaid, “I promised tory is a hugely the country free significant moand fair elections. ment in Nigeria’s I have kept my turbulent history. word,” Mr Jonathan Never before has said in a statement. a sitting president been defeated in He said he had an election. conveyed his “best wishes” to Mr Bu- Since indepenhari, and urged dence from Britain “those who may in 1960, there have feel aggrieved to been numerous follow due procoups and most cess... in seeking elections have redress”. been rigged. Of course in a close A spokesman for election there Gen Buhari’s All will be many votProgressives Con- ers who are not gress (APC) party pleased with this praised Mr Jonaoutcome but the than, saying: “He whole process is a will remain a hero sign that democfor this move. The racy is deepening tension will go in Nigeria. down dramatically.” The poll has once again brought to Gen Buhari’s sup- the surface danporters have cele- gerous religious brated by dancing and regional differand singing in the ences and there is streets in most APC still a threat of viostrongholds espe- lence. cially the northern cities of Kano and The man who has

been voted out, Goodluck Jonathan, has played a huge part today in trying to prevent that. He made the phonecall when there would no doubt have been some in his camp who would have preferred to dig their heels in. The APC issued a statement after the result was announced, calling for “calm, sober celebrations” and warning supporters not to attack opponents. “He or she is not with me, whoever does that,” the president-elect said. He is due to give a speech later on Wednesday. The former military ruler dominated the country’s north-western states, which have suffered most from attacks by Islamist militant group Boko Haram. In Borno state, one of the worstaffected by Islamist violence, Gen Buhari won 94% of the vote. It is the fourth time that Gen Buhari, 72, has sought the presidency. He ruled Nigeria from January 1984 until August 1985, taking charge after a military coup in December 1983. Mr Jonathan had led Nigeria since 2010, initially as acting leader before winning elec-

tions in 2011.

What Nigerians need is a leader Nigeria has sufwho is morally fered from several attacks by the above board and with a good vision Islamist militant of salvaging the group Boko HaNigeria both morram, which has killed thousands of ally and economipeople in its drive cally. to establish an IsNigerians are not lamic state. looking for gullible Many voters have leader - They need said that they be- a leader with the lieve Gen Buhari is will power to do better positioned what is right anytime, everytime, to defeat Boko Haram. The verdict pragmatic and visionary to lead the on Mr Buhari’s 20 months as military citizens out of the current quagmire ruler is mixed. that they’ve boxed themselves in! The European Union’s top dipAs you embark in lomat, Federica this area of work, Mogherini, congratulated Gen Bu- may we wish you hari on his victory, the strength of saying she “looked conviction and forward to working character, zeal, guidance and prowith” him. tection required to continue with the We also wish to offer many thanks good work, espeto all of those that cially in the times ahead. contributed in making the elecAfricaWorldNews tion success poswould like to seize sible. this opportunity to congratulate However, there you on this history remains a significant body of work election victory for over the last eventto be done in order to salvage the ful and successful country in the cur- month. rent quagmire that it is in, particularly Welcome Back Baba! in the provision of electricity, employment, water, public transport. In addition, tackle corruption in the strictest term and the appalling state of security in the country.

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JOURNAL URNALUSA

More Than Elections

How Democracies transfer power

U.S. DEPARTMENT 0F STATE / BUREAU OF INTERNATIONAL INFORMATION PROGRAMS

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE / JANUARy 2010 VOLUME 15 / NUMBER 1

http://www.america.gov/publications/ejournalusa.html International Information Programs: Coordinator Executive Editor Creative Director

Daniel Sreebny Jonathan Margolis Michael Jay Friedman

Editor-in-Chief Managing Editor Production Manager/ Web Producer Designer

Richard W. Huckaby Lea Terhune

Copy Editor Photo Editor Cover Design Reference Specialist

Cover: AP Images/Jupiter Images

Janine Perry Chloe D. Ellis

Jeanne Holden Maggie Johnson Sliker Min Yao Anita Green

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The Bureau of International Information Programs of the U.S. Department of State publishes a monthly electronic journal under the eJournal USA logo. These journals examine major issues facing the United States and the international community, as well as U.S. society, values, thought, and institutions. One new journal is published monthly in English and is followed by versions in French, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish. Selected editions also appear in Arabic, Chinese, and Persian. Each journal is catalogued by volume and number. The opinions expressed in the journals do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government. The U.S. Department of State assumes no responsibility for the content and continued accessibility of Internet sites to which the journals link; such responsibility resides solely with the publishers of those sites. Journal articles, photographs, and illustrations may be reproduced and translated outside the United States unless they carry explicit copyright restrictions, in which case permission must be sought from the copyright holders noted in the journal. The Bureau of International Information Programs maintains current and back issues in several electronic formats, as well as a list of upcoming journals, at http://www.america.gov/publications/ejournals.html. Comments are welcome at your local U.S. Embassy or at the editorial offices: Editor, eJournal USA IIP/PUBJ U.S. Department of State 2200 C Street, NW Washington, DC 20522-0501 USA E-mail: eJournalUSA@state.gov

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About This Issue

In our campaigns, no matter how hard fought they may be, no matter how close the election may turn out to be, those who lose accept the verdict and support those who win.

President-elect John F. Kennedy (left) shakes hands with Vice President Richard M. Nixon after a joint press conference in Miami, Florida, on November 14, 1960, six days after Kennedy narrowly defeated Nixon.

he 1960 presidential election was among the most closely fought in U.S. history. So close that supporters of Vice President Richard M. Nixon urged him to challenge the results. Nixon declined. “Even if we were to win in the end,” he explained, “the cost in world opinion and the effect on democracy in the broadest sense would be detrimental.” Nixon instead performed his duty as vice president, and officially reported to the Senate the election of John F. Kennedy. “This is the first time in 100 years,” he began, that a candidate for the presidency announced the result of an election in which he was defeated and announced the victory of his opponent. I do not think we could have a more striking example of the stability of our constitutional system and of the proud tradition of the American people of developing, respecting and honoring institutions of self-government.

Nixon’s critics saw in his words the opening shot of a future campaign. Why they might view a gracious concession as politically shrewd is the subject of this eJournal USA. This month we explore how democracies transfer power in accord with the will of the people, expressed through free and fair elections. In the two decades since the Cold War ended, many nations have held elections, but not all are genuine democracies. Sometimes elections are rigged, incumbents enjoy unfair advantages, or — with military support — they overturn the results. But in healthy democracies, as Nixon and his critics understood, citizens expect that elections will be fair and insist that the results be respected, beginning with a peaceful transition of power from one leader to the next. Our contributors link peaceful transitions to a vibrant civil society. These voluntary civic and social organizations, they argue, engage and inform citizens, and instill a shared expectation that democracy is legitimate and undemocratic action is not. The essays gathered here explore transitions of power in the United States and other nations. We also examine a 21st-century development: how new social media technologies can strengthen civil society and thus bolster democracy. A number of contributors point out that democracies are stable because election losers know that no victory is permanent, that winners cannot change the rules of future contests, and that losers can compete and win another day. Among those competitors was Richard M. Nixon, elected in 1968 the 37th president of the United States.

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— The Editors

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE / JANUARy 2010 / VOLUME 15 / NUMBER 1

http://www.america.gov/publications/ejournalusa.html

More Than Elections: How Democracies Transfer Power PREPARING THE GROUND

4 More Than Elections Eric Bjornlund, co-FoundEr and PrinciPal oF dEmocracy intErnational, inc. Elections are just a starting point in a healthy democracy: The true test is a stable government that protects minority rights, rule of law, and free speech, and promotes a strong civil society.

Democracyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Rhetoric of Defeat Paul corcoran, associatE ProFEssor oF Political sciEncE, uniVErsity oF adElaidE, australia Concession speeches, particularly after hardfought elections, reinforce government stability by reconciling citizens to election results.

Civil Society, Democracy, and Elections BrucE GillEy, assistant ProFEssor oF Political sciEncE, Portland statE uniVErsity, Portland, orEGon Strong civil societies hold elected officials responsible for good governance and cultivate the political conditions in which democracy can thrive.

The 2008-2009 U. S. Presidential Transition: Successful Cooperation martha joynt kumar, ProFEssor oF Political sciEncE, towson uniVErsity, towson, maryland, and dirEctor oF thE whitE housE transition ProjEct The smoothest handovers from one administration to another require long months of advance work and cooperation by outgoing and incoming presidents.

8 Ingredients of a Resilient Democracy ValEriE BuncE, ProFEssor oF GoVErnmEnt and aaron BinEnkorB chair oF intErnational studiEs, cornEll uniVErsity Elections in a healthy democracy hold governments accountable to the governed and ensure stability. 10 The Lasting Impact of Digital Media on Civil Society PhiliP n. howard, associatE ProFEssor, dEPartmEnt oF communications, uniVErsity oF washinGton, sEattlE, washinGton Individual citizens and civil society groups employ digital media and social networking tools to communicate rapidly, verbally, and visually â&#x20AC;&#x201D; sometimes for political mobilization and dissent.

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TRANSFERRING POWER

PHOTO GALLERY: Implementing the Will of the People

Herbert Hoover to Franklin D. Roosevelt: Transition in a Time of Crisis donald a. ritchiE, historian oF thE unitEd statEs sEnatE The transition from Republican president Herbert Hoover to Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Great Depression occurred during a time of great economic and political stress, but nevertheless was peaceful.

How a Partially Free Election Altered Poland anna husarska, translator, journalist, and humanitarian workEr A first-hand account of Poland’s 1989 election and of how the Solidarity movement and other civil society groups helped establish Polish democracy.

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31 Authoritarian Rule to the European Union: Romania and Moldova GriGorE PoP-ElEchEs, assistant ProFEssor oF Politics, PuBlic and intErnational aFFairs, PrincEton uniVErsity Two former Communist bloc states have followed different paths toward democracy. Civil society has played a role both in Romania, now a European Union member, and Moldova, an aspiring member. 34

“Serbian Autumn” Delayed: A Lesson in Uncivil Democracy-Building Zoran cirjakoVic, journalist and lEcturEr Sometimes civil society organizations are less effective than seasoned political dealmakers in achieving a democratic outcome.

36 Additional Resources

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More Than Elections

ÂŠ AP Images/Themba Hadebe

Eric Bjornlund

Outside the Pan African Parliament in South Africa, a Zimbabwean opposition Movement for Democratic Change supporter calls for the Parliament to pressure President Robert Mugabe to make democratic reforms in neighboring Zimbabwe.

A lawyer and development professional with two decades of international experience, Eric Bjornlund co-founded and heads Democracy International, Inc., which designs, implements, and evaluates democracy and governance programs. He specializes in elections, political processes, civil society, and analytical methods. He is the author of Beyond Free and Fair: Monitoring Elections and Building Democracy (2004). In a healthy democracy, elections are the starting point for a stable government that protects minority rights, ensures free speech, respects the rule of law, and promotes a strong civil society.

emocratic elections are widely recognized as a foundation of legitimate government. By allowing citizens to choose the manner in which they are governed, elections form the starting point for all other democratic institutions and practices. Genuine democracy, however, requires substantially more. In addition to elections, democracy requires constitutional limits on governmental power, guarantees of basic rights, tolerance of religious or ethnic minorities, and representation of diverse viewpoints, among other things. To build authentic democracy, societies must foster a democratic culture and rule of law that govern behavior between elections and constrain those who might be tempted to undermine election processes. As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remarked recently at Georgetown University, â&#x20AC;&#x153;Democracy means not only elections to

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choose leaders, but also active citizens and a free press and an independent judiciary and transparent and responsive institutions that are accountable to all citizens and protect their rights equally and fairly. In democracies, respecting rights isn’t a choice leaders make day by day; it is the reason they govern.” (Washington, D.C., December 14, 2009) Smooth political transitions after elections are essential. In a healthy democracy, candidates who lose elections relinquish power gracefully and peacefully. By doing so, defeated candidates can emerge with their dignity intact and through their example contribute to the strength of their nation’s democratic traditions, practices, and customs. Likewise, by reaching out to and showing respect for their political opponents, winning candidates help bridge differences and minimize the potential for conflict that can undermine democracy and development. In a true democracy, the rule of law, democratic political institutions, and independent civil society organizations help ensure respect for electoral outcomes. These institutions and values in turn bolster people’s faith in their governments and their willingness to support peaceful political transitions. THE RUlE

lAW

Democracy requires respect for the rule of law, which survives regardless of the outcome of elections. The United Nations Security Council defines the rule of law as when “all persons, institutions and entities, public and private, including the State itself, are accountable to laws that are publicly promulgated, equally enforced and independently adjudicated, and which are consistent with international human rights norms and standards.” The rule of law comprises legitimacy, fairness, effectiveness, and checks and balances. Legitimacy requires that laws reflect a general social consensus that they be enacted in an open and democratic process. Fairness includes equal application of the law, procedural fairness, protection of civil liberties, and reasonable access to justice. Effectiveness refers to the consistent application and enforcement of laws. Fairly enforced laws that protect all citizens help establish a democratic state’s legitimacy. Because such laws in a healthy democracy command public respect and loyalty, citizens accept disappointing election results. A nation where laws are implemented fairly and disputes adjudicated impartially is more stable. Unjust

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or discriminatory laws, on the other hand, undermine public respect. If sufficiently egregious, such laws risk public disobedience or even revolt and create a climate less tolerant of unsatisfactory electoral outcomes. This is why U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower observed, “The clearest way to show what the rule of law means to us in everyday life is to recall what has happened when there is no rule of law.” Rule of law implies respect for fundamental civil rights and procedural norms and requires that these transcend the outcome of any given election. In a democracy, the election returns cannot affect protections for freedom of speech, freedom of the press, or the independence of the judiciary. New leaders, regardless of how broad their electoral mandate, should neither call these norms into question nor threaten the rights of any citizen, including those who supported a losing candidate. As a result, respect for the rule of law encourages peaceful election transitions. A defeated candidate who refuses to accept election results simply will find himself lacking support; citizens instead will view such a figure as an outlier, possibly a lawbreaker, and definitely a threat to their shared civic culture. Again, citizens are less likely to support revolts or to back candidates who refuse to accept election results in a country where legal processes are respected and the state is seen as legitimate. POlITIcAl INSTITUTIONS Well-developed political and electoral institutions similarly increase the likelihood of peaceful election transitions. Institutions provide the resilience that democracies require to withstand potential conflicts following controversial or contested elections. Instead of taking their grievances to the streets, defeated candidates or opposition groups can challenge election results or the fairness of election procedures through institutional mechanisms, such as electoral complaint commissions or courts. The broad expectation that these institutions will adjudicate the disputes fairly makes a peaceful, democratic transition more likely and diminishes the likelihood of conflict as an avenue for contesting election results. Strong and effective electoral institutions enhance electoral process credibility and reinforce the public expectation that electoral results will be respected. They assure defeated candidates that the victors’ terms of office are limited and there will be opportunities to compete again.

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cIvIl SOcIETy

Like political institutions and the rule of law, a strong civil society — supported by a free press — enhances the legitimacy of democratic practices and reinforces expectations that electoral winners and losers will respect the “rules of the game.” Civil society organizations can act as a check on governmental power and deter election losers tempted to thwart the democratic process. Genuinely independent and broadly representative A member of the Rwandan National Election Commission stands inside a ballot station in Kigali in August 2003 nongovernmental amid preparations for an election the next day. organizations and other civil society institutions help ensure that candidates and elected officials respect election Political institutions that restrain, or check, results and democratic processes. They can facilitate governmental power also contribute to stability. important dialogue between citizens and their government This is especially important in new and developing and supply information that democratic, representative democracies, where election outcomes can produce governments need. By articulating a society’s issues and uncertain political environments or moments of crisis. concerns, advocacy groups contribute to transparency and If a political leader refuses to accept the election returns, accountability. By pressuring the government to follow a strong, independent judiciary capable of resisting that through on its campaign commitments, they enhance recalcitrance is crucial. When an incumbent is defeated at government responsiveness. Civil society organizations can the polls, it helps greatly if the government bureaucracy shape government behavior and can help define people’s does not rely on political leaders for patronage or for expectations of how their government will operate. its members’ livelihoods. Civil servants thus will have Internet and social media technologies now provide less incentive to support any efforts of a defeated leader civil society groups new platforms from which to to reject a democratic process. Established political organize, exchange information, and push for greater institutions channel dissent and create incentives government transparency and accountability. Blogging, for leaders, lawmakers, and bureaucrats to govern text messaging, online social networking, and similar Webdemocratically. based tools enable civil society groups to expand their Effective governance — including public audiences, rapidly increase their membership, and leverage accountability, responsiveness, transparency and efficiency international support for local or national causes. During — helps build political legitimacy for democracy. As President Barack Obama said to the parliament of Ghana, the post-election controversy in Iran, for example, the online microblogging platform Twitter enabled Iranians “In the 21st century, capable, reliable, and transparent to question election results and to inform the world about institutions are the key to success — strong parliaments unfolding political events. and honest police forces, independent judges and Secretary Clinton has linked these organizations journalists, a vibrant private sector, and civil society.” and networks to government accountability and (Accra, Ghana, July 11, 2009) responsiveness. Civil society, she says, “pushes political institutions to be agile and responsive to the people eJournal uSa 6

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On October 24, 2000, in Belgrade, ministers of the new Serbian transitional government read their oaths during a session of Parliament. Followers of the new president, Vojislav Kostunica, agreed to share power with Slobodan Milosevic’s Socialist Party until new elections that December.

they serve.” (Morocco, November 3, 2009) Civil society organizations help citizens develop new ways to call for government accountability and transparency and increase the incentives of governments to adhere to democratic norms and principles. RESPEcTING

AND

MOvING BEyOND ElEcTIONS

Democracy creates certain public expectations and understandings, including respect for the rule of law and for the outcomes of elections. It requires respect for values beyond elections. Speaking in Cairo, President Obama emphasized these fundamental truths: So no matter where it takes hold, government of the people and by the people sets a single standard for all who would hold power: You must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place

the interests of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party. Without these ingredients, elections alone do not make true democracy.(Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt, June 4, 2009) Respect for the rule of law, well-developed political institutions, and strong civil society engagement together reinforce expectations for and the likelihood of peaceful political transitions. States where institutions represent diverse interests, channel public demands, facilitate political discourse, and implement laws effectively and impartially are more likely to command respect. In these nations, the possibility of effecting change through peaceful means discourages extra-constitutional challenges to election results and helps ensure that elections are a first step to broader democratic governance. n The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.

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Ingredients of a Resilient Democracy

Valerie Bunce

Ukrainians cheer for opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko during a 2004 Kiev rally. Tens of thousands protested against election fraud and voter intimidation. The “orange revolution” forced annulment of the election results. A free and fair runoff election followed.

Valerie Bunce, professor of government and Aaron Binenkorb Chair of International Studies at Cornell University, is an expert on democracy and authoritarian rule in postcommunist Europe and Eurasia. She is co-editor of Democracy and Authoritarianism in the Postcommunist World (2009). Elections in a healthy democracy hold governments accountable to the governed and facilitate peaceful transfers of power.

emocratic elections require more than the casting and counting of ballots. In a healthy democracy, elections hold governments accountable to the governed. This happens when: • Citizens are free to select their political representatives; • Citizens can choose among candidates seeking their support; • Officeholders must be re-elected to retain their positions after a specified interval. They face regular electoral verdicts on their performance and risk losing power at the ballot box.

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Competitive elections promote uncertainty among political aspirants and thus encourage their responsiveness to citizens. Elections will only produce accountability when they are regularly held and when they are free and fair. In many new democracies in Sub-Saharan Africa and post-communist Eurasia, electoral competition has not ensured accountability. Sometimes this is because electoral procedures are irregular, rather than transparent and in full conformity with constitutional guidelines. In some nations, incumbents dominate the political playing field by dispensing patronage to established and potential supporters, or they manufacture “fake” oppositions, and harass their “real” opposition. Moreover, seemingly democratic regimes can prolong their hold on power by controlling voter registration, voter turnout, and vote tabulation. The gap between simulation and actual democratic practice narrows when opposition parties and candidates run vigorous campaigns. These mobilize citizens and civil society groups, which in turn organize to register voters, get out the vote, and monitor elections. This is precisely what happened in the pivotal elections that took place in Slovakia in 1998, Croatia and Serbia in 2000, Georgia in 2003, and Ukraine in 2004. In each case, citizens employed democratic methods, including voting and protests, to force authoritarian incumbents or their anointed successors to admit defeat. Transitions challenge any political system. Healthy democracies handle the dilemma smoothly and peacefully. Clean elections and peaceful transitions demonstrate that today’s losers might be tomorrow’s winners, and vice versa. Winners and their supporters must remain responsive to the opinions of their rivals, keeping an eye

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on the next election cycle. Losers and their advocates can focus on present and future possibilities, rather than past resentments. Confident that the rules can work for them next time, they more easily accept the existing political order and are less likely to seek a democratic government’s violent overturn. Every transition to new leadership implies change, and hence a challenge to political stability. Democracies minimize this challenge by holding regular and competitive elections that open genuine opportunities for emerging new leaders and through transparent power transfers that help winners and losers accept their fates. However, democracies differ in how they weigh the benefits of stability against the need for political dynamism and change, and even against the voters’ desire to return the same candidate to office over and over again. For example, in the United States, Russia, Armenia, and more than 30 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, there are constitutional limits on how long leaders can serve. These limits guard against autocracy by preventing any one individual from holding power too long, but also deprive citizens of the opportunity to vote for a “termed-out” candidate. Elections therefore serve two vital functions in a democratic order. They hold government accountable to the governed, and they facilitate peaceful transfers of political power. These two effects, in turn, legitimize democracy. Citizens of a healthy democracy view representative government as the “only way” to conduct politics. n The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.

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The Lasting Impact of Digital Media on Civil Society

ÂŠ AP Images

Philip N. Howard

June 2009: Cell phone cameras document Tehran, Iran, demonstrators protesting elections results.

Philip N. Howard is associate professor in the Department of Communication and affiliate professor, Jackson School of International Studies, at the University of Washington in Seattle, Washington. He is the author of New Media Campaigns and the Managed Citizen (2006) and The Digital Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy, which will be published in 2010 by Oxford University Press. Digital media and social networking supply citizens and civil society institutions with tools for communication and mobilization. They provide arenas where individuals can offer opinions and express dissent and thus strengthen trends toward political democracy.

ew information technologies are profoundly reshaping political culture. Twenty-first-century civil society relies upon the Internet and other communication devices for its infrastructure, and for a digital â&#x20AC;&#x153;safe harborâ&#x20AC;? in which civic conversations can incubate. This is especially true in countries where the national print and broadcast media are heavily censored. In short, technology has empowered new and vital means of political communication and acclimated citizens to democratic thought and action. Civil society is often defined as the self-generating and self-supporting community of people who share core values and voluntarily organize political, economic, or cultural activities independent of the state. Civil society

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groups come in many sizes, from Amnesty International to neighborhood bowling leagues in the United States and the online communities around the world. Civic groups are especially important during election season because they represent diverse perspectives and disseminate them widely through communications media. The breadth of expressed views assures citizens that in a democracy no one group can claim to represent all of society. Instead, a multitude of groups contributes to the defining of national goals and the shaping of policies. cREATING vIRTUAl cOMMUNITIES Civil society groups use the Internet as a logistical tool for organization and communication. The Web affords them an information infrastructure independent of the state, one in which social movements can grow. For example, Tunisian citizens monitoring state corruption organized themselves to create YouTube videos of the Tunisian president’s wife using the state plane for shopping trips to Milan and Paris. The Internet thus has altered the dynamics of political communication in many countries. There, cyberspace is the forum where civil society challenges the state. In some nations, it is where secularism and Islamism compete, in others the forum for political disputes of every stripe. After an election, the virtual communities that have taken root are almost always independent of state control, though they can be monitored and sometimes manipulated by the state. While political elites do start some virtual communities in an effort to control online conversation, these typically are not successful. In countries like Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom, these are sometimes called “Astroturf ” movements. They are artificial, rarely take root, and tend not to last long after voting day. What do last are the more genuine ties forged between a nation’s civic groups, and between international nongovernmental organizations and like-minded in-country associations. These virtual communities are particularly prominent in countries where state and social elites harshly police offline communities. In nations where overt political opposition is restricted, cyberspace emerges as a substitute forum. Even online bulletin boards and chat rooms dedicated to shopping for brand-name watches become sites that practice free speech and where the defense of free speech supplants timepieces as a topic of conversation. The Internet allows opposition movements

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based outside an authoritarian-ruled country to reach into and become part of the political communication system. Banning political parties simply means that formal political opposition is organized online, from outside the country. It also means that civil society leaders turn to the other organizational forms that network technologies afford. AIDING cIvIc ENGAGEMENT Malaysia, Indonesia, and Turkey all recently held elections and, according to most observers, the elections went well. Digital media played a role in political campaigning, and democracy seems stronger for it. Despite these countries’ diverse histories, political culture across all three has taken on similar features: • Citizens have increased international content in

their news diets; • Family and friends employ Twitter, Facebook, and Orkut networks in their communications, independent of direct state control; • Civil society actors have flourished online — even when the state has cracked down domestically; • Women are drawn into cyberspace discourse in ways not always available in “real” space. Identity politics — particularly for cohorts of urban, technologically savvy youth — are digitally mediated. From Palestinians to Greeks, Armenians to Hmong, young Internet users learn much about their culture and politics in their diaspora. These new forms of political communication contributed to largely positive election campaigns. Even rigorously Islamist parties needed to moderate their message and employ new information technologies to attract and motivate voters. Twitter, blogs, or YouTube do not cause social unrest. But today, it is difficult to imagine successful social movement organizing and civic engagement without them, even in countries like Iran and Egypt. Many people in these countries have no Internet or mobile phone access. But those who do — urban dwellers, educated elites, and the young — are precisely the population that enables regime change or tacitly supports an electoral outcome. These are the citizens who support or defect from authoritarian rule, and these are the people whose connections to family and friends have demonstrably changed with the diffusion of new communications technologies.

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democratic activists will travel from country to country and help local groups during elections. But elections also are an opportunity for groups to learn about each other’s strategies for getting ideas out to the public.

When an election is over, new media habits remain. Elections have become sensitive moments in which student leaders, journalists, and civil society groups experiment with digital technologies. Even if their preferred candidates are not elected, the process of experimentation is important because, by using digital media, citizens construct an information infrastructure that is largely independent of the state. Digital media leave a lasting imprint on civil society, one that continues after elections. The Internet allows youth to learn, for instance, about life in countries where faith and freedom coexist. Over time, more citizens are learning to use the Internet, developing their online search skills, and becoming more sophisticated in how they obtain, evaluate, and use information. STRENGTHENING cIvIl SOcIETy Pundits are right to point out that the Internet also is used to support terrorist networks. They note that some ruling elites seek — by censoring new media — to achieve more sophisticated means of social control. But there is more to the story than what is sometimes called “e-jihad,” “terrorism online,” “cyberwar,” and “digital fatwas.” Over time, social media’s role in strengthening civil society will likely prove its most lasting contribution to political culture. During politically sensitive moments like elections or political or military crises, tools such as mobile phones and the Internet enhance political communication in three ways: • First, technology users display unusually strong

norms of trust and reciprocity in times of crisis. They are likely to share images, help each other stay in touch with family and friends, and help outsiders by supplying information on the ground.

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• Third, elections are opportunities to debate all

kinds of public issues, including the role of new communication technologies. Questions about technology standards — such as public spectrum allocation, government censorship, and digital access — become topics of discussion. The public may insist that political candidates explain their plans for promoting technology use and for closing the digital divide between technology haves and have-nots. Statistical modeling of Malaysia’s recent legislative elections shows that challenger candidates who blogged were more likely to defeat incumbents who did not. And opposition party candidates who blogged were more likely to defeat government candidates who did not. Today, it is hard for a political candidate to seem “modern” without a digital campaign strategy. Information infrastructure is politics. In many nations, it also is far more participatory than the prevailing traditional political culture. As a result, the new technology-based politics democratizes the old, elitedriven arrangements. Every time a citizen documents a human rights abuse with her mobile phone, uses a shared spreadsheet to track state expenditures, or pools information about official corruption, she strengthens civil society and strikes a blow for democracy. Digital media’s most lasting impact may be that it acclimates citizens both to consuming and to producing political content. n The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.

• Second, civil society groups often copy each other’s

digital campaign strategies. In part this is because

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Democracy’s Rhetoric of Defeat

©AP Images/Michel Euler

Paul Corcoran

Socialist candidate for the French presidency, Ségolène Royal, concedes defeat in Paris, on May 6, 2007. While sharing the disappointment of her supporters, she said she hoped the winner, Nicholas Sarkozy, “will accomplish his mission at the service of all French people.”

American political scientist Paul Corcoran is an associate professor at the University of Adelaide in Australia. His particular interests are political communication, including rhetorical strategies and media framing; political philosophy; and politics and art. Concession speeches after hard-fought elections are more than empty rituals. They help establish the legitimacy of the results, reinforce national unity, and pave the way for peaceful and effective transitions of power.

ith the votes still being counted on November 4, 2008, the two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency played their roles in the concluding act of an established political drama. The first

to speak was the defeated candidate, John McCain. His concession speech followed a time-honored rhetorical formula: My friends, we have come to the end of a long journey. The American people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly. A little while ago, I had the honor of calling Senator Barack Obama to congratulate him … on being elected the next president of the country that we both love. In a contest as long and difficult as this campaign has been, his success alone commands my respect for his ability and perseverance. But that he managed to do so by inspiring the hopes of so many millions of Americans who had once wrongly believed that they had little at stake or little influence in the election of an American president is something I deeply admire and commend him for achieving. In his victory speech, Barack Obama responded, emphasizing “that we have never been just a collection of individuals or a collection of red [predominantly Republican] states and blue [predominantly Democratic] states. We are, and always will be, the United States of America.” The president-elect’s next words offered a tribute to his rival: A little bit earlier this evening, I received an extraordinarily gracious call from Senator McCain. Senator McCain fought long and hard in this campaign. And he’s fought even longer and harder for the country that he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine. We are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. Versions of this drama are performed in every healthy democracy. Ségolène Royal wished Nicholas Sarkozy “the best in accomplishing his mission in the service of all the French people.” Defeated Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso announced, “I believe that this is the judgment of the public and we will have to reflect on that sincerely.” Similarly cordial exchanges signal the end of democratic

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political campaigns throughout the world. One might dismiss these remarks as mere formalities: insincere, gratuitous, at best oldfashioned gallantry. But they play a crucial role: in the concession speech the defeated candidate accepts the legitimacy of the election results. The victor’s response signals that supporters of all John Kerry campaign staffers watch their candidates remain candidate’s 2004 concession speech. a valued part of the national polity. Each election, no matter how bitterly contested, thus ends with an expression of national unity. A FORMAl RITE

TRANSITION

Surprisingly, the losing candidate has the greater rhetorical opportunity and significance in the election night drama and in the democratic process. The victor inevitably returns to campaign promises. By acknowledging his opponent’s graciousness, he easily appears chivalrous, even as his praise for a formidable opponent magnifies his own achievement. The rhetoric of defeat has a more important task to perform in the formal rite of political transition in a democracy. Delivered with a minimum of preparation by a strong personality in a time of great emotional stress, a concession speech personifies the requisite civilities for social stability and legitimate political authority. It ceremonially resolves the symbolic crisis (the election) that democracies regularly and purposefully experience, and thus visibly reinforces popular sovereignty and constitutional order. For the vanquished, the rhetorical drama translates electoral defeat into a narrative of triumph: The defeated party renews its commitment toward future victory. The language of combat, partisan loyalty, and opposing principles is rendered into metaphors of ancient virtue, chivalry, and sport – that is, onto a plane where playing the game is fundamental and the rules of the game are more important than winning or losing a particular contest. Some dramatize a U.S. presidential election as a

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campaign of organized combat between enemies. Like warfare, it is noisy and passionate. The media tends to reinforce this military theme by emphasizing division and conflict, with winners and losers pronounced in weekly opinion polls. Candidates cast doubt on their rivals’ competence, character, and leadership qualities. The record of incumbent candidates is sharply questioned. Candidates are probed for signs of weakness. Candidates who already hold office enter “election mode,” devoting great effort to running for office. Modern presidential campaign organizations work to divide the electorate into segments and then ideologically consolidate the majority of these voting blocs. This strategy fragments the nation by party, state, region, and more. Each successive presidential election is proclaimed the most divisive, hard-fisted, negative campaign ever. The nation, many commentators conclude, ends up polarized as never before. The stress on democratic norms is real. Old loyalties, grievances, and prejudices re-emerge. Passions run high. Finally, all but one of the candidates and nearly half of the electorate will be disappointed, their hopes dashed, illusions crumbled. This happens when things are working well. The rhetorical task of the concession speech is to begin healing the wounds and salving the bruises inflicted and suffered by both parties. Only the defeated candidate can acknowledge loss, declare the victor’s triumph, issue a call for national unity, and urge patriotic support for the candidate he campaigned against for months. This sacrifice of personal hope and ambition is justified by a call for national unity, renewed party loyalty, and a reassurance that the prospect is bright for future victory. Thus in 2004 the vanquished John Kerry spoke to his loyal supporters about the danger of division in our country and the need — the desperate need for unity, for finding the common ground, coming together. Today, I hope that we can begin the healing. … We are required now to work together for the good of our country. In the days ahead we must find common cause. We must join in a common effort, without remorse or recrimination, without anger or rancor. America is in need of unity and longing for a larger measure of compassion. Four years later, John McCain evoked the identical theme:

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Senator Obama and I have had and argued our differences, and he has prevailed. … I urge all Americans who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him, but offering our next president our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together, to find the necessary compromises, to bridge our differences, and help restore our prosperity, defend our security in a dangerous world, and leave our children and grandchildren a stronger, better country than we inherited. Whatever our differences, we are fellow Americans. ORDERly TRANSITION: A GlOBAl cHAllENGE This ritual of gracious acceptance of defeat with a plea for unity and cooperation is well-established in the United States, with its long tradition of competitive electioneering. However, a similar ritual has developed to greater or lesser degrees in other democratic nations. Its features were partly visible in the 2005 British parliamentary elections. The BBC reported that Michael Howard, leader of the Conservative Party, ‘conceded defeat’ in these peremptory terms: It looks as if Mr Blair is going to win a third term for Labour, and I congratulate him on that victory. I believe that the time has now come for him to deliver on the things that really matter to the people of our country. … When he does, then he will have my support. The democratic themes of Ségolène Royal’s concession were clearer in the 2007 French presidential election: Friends, compatriots … universal suffrage has spoken, and I hope that the new president of the republic will be able to accomplish his mission, and I thank the 17 million from the bottom of my heart. … I gave my utmost, and I will carry on … I would like to thank all the people who fought, and let’s keep intact the energy and the joy…the election has renewed democracy …what we have begun together we will carry on together. Post-election concession speeches occur in South America, Africa, Asia, Europe and Australia, but only rarely do they follow the formal courtesies and mediadriven framing devices of American presidential elections. This is especially true in nations with numerous parties or

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a parliamentary system where a coalition of parties often forms a governing majority. The orderly transition of office and power from one political party to another cannot be taken for granted. It requires a framework of law and widespread confidence based on practical experience that elections are fair. In new or evolving democracies, especially those beset by deep cultural divisions, the lack of experience or trust in the electoral process is inevitably a challenge. Regimes established by coup d’état, peaceful or otherwise, may seek democratic legitimacy in an election, only to defy electoral defeat by force of arms. In such cases, rather than concede defeat, party leaders may denounce the result, claiming fraudulent ballots, censorship, and violent intimidation. They may urge their supporters to resist, fight, and die. For a nation attempting to build and consolidate democratic institutions, the challenge facing rival leaders is to accept defeat as a bridge beyond personal ambition and party interest. The ritual of concession and victory does more than heal. The formal exchange of tributes may seem like nostalgic gestures from a more genteel, less cynical era, but the participants reenact a classical political dramaturgy. In the aftermath of a hard-fought battle, the speeches are a ritual display of very abstract concepts: ‘democracy at work’ and ‘voice of the people.’ Fierce opponents are restored as a citizen body, reunified and renewed in commitment to values that transcend rivalry. Communicated by pervasive mass media, the ritual of conceding defeat and declaring victory becomes the election’s cathartic dénouement. As officials count the vote, journalists furiously analyze their computer projections and impatiently speculate: When will the apparent loser ‘concede’? Will the candidate deny the winner a triumphant election-night celebration? And will the defeated candidate, yield to bitterness and emotional breakdown or appear ‘gracious’ at a moment of ultimate disappointment and despair? This ceremony of defeat is a symbolic transfer of power. When viewed over time and in the context of the increasingly powerful mass media, these speeches have become an established democratic practice that broadens our understanding of how national sovereignty is institutionalized and symbolically reinforced. n The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.

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Civil Society, Democracy, and Elections

Bruce Gilley

Free to Demonstrate: Indonesian students burn former President Suharto in effigy. They were protesting the dropping of corruption charges against the former president.

Bruce Gilley is assistant professor of political science in the Hatfield School of Government at Portland State University in Portland, Oregon. His focus is democracy, legitimacy, and global politics, particularly in Asia. His books include The Right to Rule: How States Win and Lose Legitimacy (2009) and China’s Democratic Future (2004). He is on the editorial board of the Journal of Democracy. Strong civil societies empower healthy democracies. By assuring fair elections and then holding the victors to standards of good governance, they cultivate the political conditions within which democracy can thrive.

ecent years have shown that elections alone do not assure democratic rule. Nations that hold fair elections where the winners are accountable to clear standards of good governance share a key advantage:

strong civil society institutions. A study of real and wouldbe democracies reveals that civil society and democracy are mutually reinforcing. INDONESIA Since the overthrow of long-time authoritarian ruler Suharto in 1998, Indonesia has experienced four peaceful electoral transitions — in 1999, 2001, 2004, and 2009. Its democratic gains in that period have been stunning. From a 1997 score of 6 on the Freedom House political and civil liberties scale (with 7 being the worst), the country has joined the ranks of the world’s relatively liberal democracies with a score of 2.5 in 2009. Despite widespread fears of conflict and political ruptures, an active and organized civil society has supplied much of the glue that helps Indonesians adhere

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to democratic expectations and norms. Groups such as Democracy Forum, the University Presidents’ Forum, and the University Network for Free and Fair Elections ensured fair elections. Just as important, other Indonesian civil society institutions forced politicians to play by the rules, keep their promises, and remain accountable to voters in the periods between elections. Dr. Hadi Soesastro, executive director of the Jakartabased Center for Strategic and International Studies, told a U.S. audience in 2001 that the country’s new democracy “is still so fragile and, of course, the major risk is that we might see a reversal in the process.” Civil society in Indonesia, he declared, “defines its main function as trying to prevent this reversal. It is the number-one priority for us.” Nine years later, Indonesian civil society can declare a tentative mission accomplished. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton congratulated civil society leaders in Jakarta in February 2009 for their role in forging a tolerant, democratic, and rights-respecting country. “As I travel around the world over the next years, I will be saying to people, if you want to know whether Islam, democracy, modernity, and women’s rights can coexist, go to Indonesia,” she said. It has become widely understood that a healthy democracy requires more than elections. That is why most democracy promotion and assistance focuses instead on other activities — from supporting civil society to strengthening effective legislative processes. But the electoral and non-electoral aspects of democracy are mutually dependent: You cannot have one without the other, and they tend to evolve in tandem. A vibrant civil society, supported by a free press and other independent organizations, not only supports electoral outcomes by ensuring fairness, legitimacy, and compliance, it also supports post-electoral follow-through, in the form of government accountability, transparency, and rulefollowing. U.S. President Barack Obama, in speeches in Moscow and Accra in 2009, referred to the role of civil society as democratic change from the “bottom up.” As he put it in Accra: “This is about more than just holding elections. It’s also about what happens between elections.” ETHIOPIA Ethiopia also reflects these “bottom-up” processes of democratic consolidation. The nation achieved its first truly competitive national election in 2005, helped by Ethiopian civil society organizations previously

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During the 2008 local and parliamentary elections, Ethiopians being trained in how the election process works.

concerned mostly with relief and development efforts. Opposition parties increased their share of the national legislature from 9 to 173 of the 547 seats, the first serious dent in the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front’s (EPRDF) decade-long dominance. During the elections, civil society organizations such as Fafen Development and Vision Ethiopian Congress for Democracy offered civic education training for citizens and deployed election observers. The regime tried to fudge the election results. Protests and an attempted clampdown in the capital, Addis Ababa, followed. Civil society organizations united in a common front, forcing the regime to accept the true results under a pact reached in May 2006. Civil society leaders who had been arrested were released. Since then, civil society groups have pressed the EPRDF to respect opposition and to rule by consent rather than coercion. A whole new sense of accountability has emerged. In response to a major concern of advocacy groups, a former prime minister and a former defense minister were charged and convicted on corruption

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charges in 2007. Meanwhile, in 2008, the Ethiopian parliament, which, thanks to the efforts of civil society groups, now included members of different political parties and persuasions, adopted a new media law. It prohibits government censorship of private media or the detention of journalists — providing an example of how civil society and competitive elections are mutually reinforcing. As President Obama noted in his Accra speech: “Across Africa, we’ve seen countless examples of people taking control of their destiny, and making change from the bottom up.” OTHER ExAMPlES Between 1998 and 2004, five post-communist states — Georgia, Ukraine, Slovakia, Croatia, and Serbia — experienced successful “democratic revolutions.” Civil society played a similar role in each. Again the initial mobilization of civil society was grounded in the desire to uphold fair and clean elections. So-called “free election movements,” which energize civil society and orient it toward a more overtly political function, are seen across the globe as nations struggle to transition to democracy. Recent examples include the Philippines, Ghana, Iran, and Kenya. AFTER THE ElEcTION After free and fair elections, civil society turns to the less dramatic, less telegenic, but arguably far more important everyday good governance. Civil society engages in a daily struggle to head off repressive laws, expose corruption, and ensure the fair representation of all groups, interests, and ideas. It strives to compel government accountability, and to assure that officeholders continue to play by the rules of the game. As President Obama put it in Cairo in 2009: “You must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place the interests of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party. Without these ingredients, elections alone do not make true democracy.” In her award-winning 2005 book From Elections to Democracy, Yale University professor Susan RoseAckerman considered a number of factors that might ensure policy-making accountability. Only a vibrant civil society, she concluded, held the potential to consolidate democracy. “Creating institutions that channel and

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manage public participation by individuals and groups in policy making should be high on the reform agenda of the post-socialist states and of consolidating democracies throughout the world,” she said. IN

THE

ABSENcE

cIvIl SOcIETy

Recent years also have supplied examples where there are elections but no active civil society. Scholars coin phrases like “feckless democracy,” “control democracy,” “illiberal democracy,” and “competitive authoritarianism” to describe countries featuring semi-competitive elections and civil societies too weak or insufficiently developed to assure government accountability. This has been most evident in the post-communist states where democratic revolutions have failed — such as in Belarus (2005) and Kyrgyzstan (2008). Civil society in these countries has been highly donor-dependent, and extends only minimally beyond capital cities. As a result, when civil society activists in these nations have risen up in “free election movements,” no one has followed. Other countries where a shallow or weak civil society has abetted the entrenchment of elected authoritarians include Malaysia, Russia, and Cambodia. In Venezuela, by contrast, a strong and vibrant civil society has simply not been up to the task of maintaining the vibrant liberal democracy that the country knew in the late 1990s. The Venezuelan case, like that of Zimbabwe, is a reminder that sometimes “bottom-up” forces are insufficient: International pressures, state institutions such as the judiciary and electoral commissions, as well as decisions by key political elites, are all needed to protect democracy. And sometimes, indeed, it is elections alone that can muster sufficient social momentum to win the battle. Fortunately, political liberalization has its own momentum. Once civil society is unleashed, it is very hard to contain. President Obama and Secretary Clinton rightly emphasize the importance of civil society in strengthening democracy, both during and after elections. Both proudly aim to strengthen U.S. civil society and democracy. President Obama personifies this quest — a community organizer himself, our nation’s leader understands deeply the symbiotic relationship of civil society and effective democracy. n The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.

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The 2008-2009 Presidential Transition: Successful Cooperation

Martha Joynt Kumar

Less than a week after the 2008 election, President George W. Bush and President-elect Barack Obama on their way to a private meeting in the Oval Office.

Martha Joynt Kumar, a professor of political science at Towson University in Towson, Maryland, is an expert on the U.S. presidency. Her book, Managing the President’s Message: The White House Communications Operation (2007), won the 2008 Richard E. Neustadt Award. Also among her many publications is Portraying the President: The White House and the News Media (1981). She is currently the director of the nonpartisan White House Transition Project. Long months of preparation on the part of the outgoing and incoming administrations made the handover from George W. Bush to Barack Obama among the smoothest of U.S. presidential transitions.

ncumbent U.S. presidents have gathered and provided executive branch information to their successors since 1952. The practice began because a U.S. system requires that a president-elect make many important decisions before taking office, particularly with regard to appointments. The 2008-2009 transition from George W. Bush to Barack Obama proved one of the smoothest and most effective. Even before the election, both sides had focused on achieving a productive transition. One measure of the transition’s effectiveness was the Obama Administration’s ability to achieve a number of its objectives during its first days in office. In the approximately 75 days between his election and inauguration, the new president establishes his policy priorities. Before he can act on his planned initiatives, he needs to have in place:

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• The information he requires to make informed

presidential decisions; • Senior White House staff members with their assignments; • A plan for prioritizing and selecting personnel for his White House and top level officials in 15 executive branch departments. With these ingredients in place, in his first 10 days in office President Barack Obama signed nine executive orders and nine presidential memoranda covering a broad range of subjects. Soon after, he signed legislation relating to equal pay, children’s health insurance, and an economic stimulus program, thus delivering on significant campaign promises early in his administration. Three developments empowered President Obama’s fast start. First, President Bush made an early and personal commitment to a successful transition. In late 2007, long before the election, Bush instructed White House Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten to assure the transition’s effectiveness. Second, early in 2008 and again long before the election, candidate Barack Obama assigned knowledgeable and appropriate people to plan for a change of power. Finally, following the September 11, 2001, attacks, all parts of the federal government had become very sensitive to threats on government operations and prepared to make the next change in executive power a smooth one. President Bush recommended and Congress passed legislation addressing the national security information needs of an incoming president. EARly TRANSITION PlANNING By BUSH ADMINISTRATION OFFIcIAlS While most incumbent presidents only turn to transition preparations in their administration’s final months, George W. Bush began over a year in advance. Joshua Bolten recalled how President Bush in 2007 instructed him to “go all-out to make sure that the transition is as effective as it possibly can be, especially in the national security area.” That early start gave the administration the opportunity to communicate with representatives of the presidential campaigns after the primary season and well before the election. With 15 departments and around 7,000 positions to ultimately fill — including the most important 1,200 posts that require Senate confirmation — a presidentelect needs a great deal of information about the jobs, how the various executive branch departments operate,

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and the status of specific policy initiatives. By mid-spring 2008 Bush administration officials had begun to gather and correlate this information for whoever would win the presidency. Coordination among executive branch agencies and officials is a key component of an effective transition. At a spring meeting of the President’s Management Council (PMC), a collection of 22 key agencies, PMC Chair Clay Johnson talked to agency representatives about the transition. The agencies worked together to establish common agency priorities and templates for their work. Johnson instructed the agency staff to focus on priorities, “not hot and spicy items, but the high priority items or the items, the trend, the specific transactions that the new leadership group will have to deal with …” In the national security area, President Bush personally reviewed a series of 40 memoranda prepared under the direction of National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley to help the incoming president and his team understand significant issues and situations around the world. Hadley also prepared a series of 17 contingency plans. “If the worst happens, here are some responses,” he explained. While the contingency plans were an ongoing operation, Joshua Bolten commented that “impending departure … really helped focus our minds on making sure those things were right before we left.” PRESIDENT-ElEcT BARAck OBAMA’S TRANSITION OPERATION Barack Obama brought in an experienced Washington hand, John Podesta, to manage his transition organization. Podesta had served in the Clinton administration as White House chief of staff. While he knew Obama well, Podesta was not personally close to Obama and he did not want a job in an Obama administration. Those aspects were important because everyone knew Podesta was not spending time trying to get a job for himself. Chris Lu, executive director of the Obama transition, indicated that the Obama transition officials were mindful of the need to rely upon people who were not angling for a job in the coming administration. “You don’t want them jockeying for their future jobs,” Lu said — a lesson learned through the experiences of those serving in earlier transitions and administrations.

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The co-chairs of the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, former Florida Senator Bob Graham (left) and former Missouri Senator Jim Talent (right) brief Vice President-elect Joe Biden and Homeland Security Secretary-designate Janet Napolitano on December 3, 2008, at the presidential transition headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Podesta elaborated on how the agency review teams supplied practical, easily digestible information for new administration officials: “You could take a program, an agency, the budget, [and say] ‘these are the challenges, how do you move forward and produce the results Obama had promised, both during the campaign and then fleshed out in the transition and into the early parts of governing?’ Cabinet secretaries and White House staff “got [a] strategic product that was more digestible,” Podesta continued. “In my conversations with the incoming cabinet secretaries, they very much appreciated that they, were getting focused, well-written, reviewed, third-draft, 30-page memos, not 5,000 pages of junk [as] had been practiced in the past.” That is the type of information and assessment that incoming officials need as they assume government positions. ANTIcIPATING

POST-SEPTEMBER 11TH TRANSITION

A third factor shaping the 2008-2009 transition was a broad consensus that national security required a smooth transition. The government adopted recommendations of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (the 9-11 Commission) to improve the national security clearance process and to gather and provide information on security threats so that a

new administration could handle an early crisis if one were to arise. The slow pace of the clearance process, many believed, had caused previous administrations undue delay getting all their appointees into office. To speed up the nomination process for executive branch personnel, Congress provided for an early clearance process, and the Bush team facilitated the early national security investigations for key transition personnel. In order to get President-elect Obama up to speed on crisis preparation, President Bush and his officials organized a crisis-training event on the White House grounds on January 13, 2009, a week before the Obama inauguration. This proved a valuable opportunity for incoming officials to discuss responses to possible emergency situations firsthand with their predecessors. cONclUSION

The 2008-2009 transition illustrates the benefit when a president orders early and thorough transition preparations. At the direction of President Bush, Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten guided a government-wide effort to define and then meet the needs of the new administration. Barack Obama contributed to the process by establishing early on a mechanism for defining and managing a possible transition, and then wisely naming a disinterested figure to head his transition team. Post-9/11 security challenges focused all involved on the need for an orderly and efficient transfer of power. Today’s American presidents cannot afford to let preparations wait until after the elections. Through legislation, executive direction, and individual effort, the Congress, President Bush, and career and political officials in the departments and agencies all worked hard at preparing the next president and his team for the responsibilities of governing. n The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.

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ÂŠ AP Images

Implementing the Will of the People

South African State President Frederik Willem de Klerk (left) and Deputy President of the African National Congress Nelson Mandela prior to talks between the ANC and the South African government, Cape Town, May 2, 1990.

F.W. de Klerk and Nelson Mandela effected possibly the most difficult peaceful transition of political

power in modern times. Upon assuming the presidency of apartheid South Africa, de Klerk released Mandela, then 71 years old, from prison after nearly three decades of confinement. The negotiations that followed assured South African blacks that they would be permitted to assume power in free and fair elections and convinced whites that they could rely upon democratic legal protections even after ceding power to the very people they had oppressed. eJournal uSa 22

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The 1989 “Velvet Revolution” — the

nonviolent overthrow of the Communist regime in Czechoslovakia — was led by dissident groups that hand-published underground pamphlets (samizdat) opposing the regime. Václav Havel, imprisoned for several years by the Communists, was elected president of the Czechoslovakian republic in the country’s first free postwar election, in 1990. After the peaceful dissolution of Czechoslovakia into the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993, he became first president of the Czech Republic.

Czech dissident and playwright Václav Havel speaks at a roundtable discussion among political parties and opposition groups about forming a new government, Prague, December 8, 1989.

“Western journalists kept telling us: you are just a small group of intellectuals fighting with one another, the workers are not behind you, you are not supported by millions of people and are just banging your heads against a brick wall. And I used to respond that in a totalitarian system we can never tell what is hidden under the surface because it can’t be verified. We didn’t have opinion polls or free media but we knew something was brewing in the social subconscious. I sensed with greater and greater intensity that sooner or later something would explode, that things could not go on like this for ever, because you could see how everything was bursting at the seams. It was obvious that a random event could provoke great changes. And the whole thing would snowball and turn into an avalanche." — Václav Havel speaking about conditions leading up to the Velvet Revolution, interviewed by Adam Michnik, Salon, 2008

Image by © Witold Rozmyslowicz/epa/Corbis

Civil Society Proved More Powerful: Lech

March 10 1981, Warsaw, Mazowieckie, Poland: Solidarity movement leader Lech Walesa (right) meets with Polish Minister Wojciech Jaruzelski.

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Walesa, an electrician in the Lenin Shipyard in Gdansk, Poland, co-founded Solidarity, the first independent trade union in the Soviet bloc, in 1980. As the union’s strength and influence grew, the Polish military, led by General Wojciech Jaruzelski, imposed martial law. Even so, the Polish people’s support ensured Solidarity’s survival as a non-violent social movement. In 1989, the regime held semi-free elections. Walesa was elected President of Poland in 1990.

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Nepal is freer since a massive

2006 general strike empowered pro-democracy activists to strip King Gyanendra of his oppressive powers. A new constitution abolished the monarchy and established a parliamentary republic, paving the way for relatively free and fair elections in 2008. Although the elections were marred by violence, and journalists are still targets of attack, significant improvements in rule of law have been made.

Nepalese citizens read a statement by King Gyanendra during the 2006 pro-democracy demonstrations that brought 150,000 protestors into the streets of Kathmandu, Nepal.

Mexico’s Federal Electoral Tribunal meets to decide the outcome of the highly contested 2006

presidential election that pitted Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN) against Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Calderón won by a razor-thin margin. Lopez Obrador lodged complaints of irregularities and demanded a recount, while he led supporters in a huge, peaceful protest in Mexico City. The tribunal is the highest court in Mexican electoral matters, and after examination it declared Calderón the winner, with a final vote tally of Calderón 35.89 percent (15,000,284 votes) and Lopez Obrador 35.31 percent (14,756,350 votes). eJournal uSa 24

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Supporters of Mongolian presidential candidate Elbegdorj Tsakhia gather in Ulaanbaatar in April 2009.

After a close parliamentary election that saw post-election

violence in 2008, Elbegdorj Tsakhia defeated Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party incumbent Nambaryn Enkhbayar 51.24 percent to 47.44 percent. Despite the narrow margin, the incumbent gracefully conceded defeat and the election did not spark protests.

Former president Nambaryn Enkhbayar (front right) and Elbegdorj Tsakhia shake hands during a swearing-in ceremony at Parliament House in Ulan Bator, Mongolia.

The Internet serves all levels of civil society in Brazil. Here

an activist from the indigenous Kayapo tribe uses his laptop computer during a 2009 public hearing. Natives of the Amazon rainforest are protesting the Brazilian government’s decision to build a large dam in the Xingu River.

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An artist’s rendering of the three most recent presidents of Ghana: (left to right) current president John Atta Mills, Jerry Rawlings (1993-2001), and John Kufour (2001-2009).

Ghana’s 2009 parliamentary and presidential elections heralded a smooth,

democratic power transfer. A series of coups d’état and fraudulent elections dominated Ghanaian politics after independence from Britain, until the 1996 election. Since then, apart from sporadic violence and poll irregularities, elections have been relatively free and fair. Freedom of speech, religion, assembly, and other basic civil rights are respected in Ghana.

August 2003: Peru’s Truth and

Reconciliation Commission presents a report to President Alejandro Toledo. The commission united community leaders, academics, journalists, and others to fix responsibility for massacres, disappearances, and other human rights abuses by the Shining Path and Túpac Amaru Revolutionary Movement rebel groups and by the Peruvian military.

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Herbert Hoover to Franklin D. Roosevelt: Transition in a Time of Crisis

ÂŠ AP Images

Donald A. Ritchie

March 4, 1933: U.S. President Herbert Hoover and President-elect Franklin D. Roosevelt greet each other in front of the White House. A constitutional amendment ratified two months earlier moved subsequent inaugurations to January 20.

Donald A. Ritchie is historian of the United States Senate and author of several books, including his recent Electing FDR: The New Deal Campaign of 1932 (2007), and Reporting from Washington: The History of the Washington Press Corps (2005). The Depression Era handover of the presidency from Herbert Hoover to Franklin D. Roosevelt was among the most politically difficult, but it remained peaceful, and the lessons learned have influenced subsequent U.S. presidential transitions.

ew events have tested democracy as deeply and profoundly as the Great Depression. Some democracies did not survive the challenge. In Germany, the unloved Weimar Republic gave way to Nazi tyranny. Not two months later, the U.S. presidency transferred from Herbert Hoover to Franklin D. Roosevelt. No American transition had occurred under more dire circumstances. American democracy emerged stronger for the experience. The U.S. economy, which had slid into the Great Depression after the stock market crash of 1929, fell even further during and immediately after the presidential campaign of 1932. Over the winter following that

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election, thousands of banks failed, businesses shut down, and a quarter of the national work force was left unemployed. Voters blamed President Hoover for their plight and turned to his challenger in a landslide. But while a pending constitutional amendment would later halve the transition time between administrations, the existing system still required a four-month waiting period before the new president could be inaugurated. In that long interim, President Hoover invited his successor to the White House to discuss the troubling economic conditions. Roosevelt accepted and met personally with Hoover three times prior to his inauguration. However, the two men had vastly different ideas about how to handle the crisis. Hoover had sponsored some creative programs in response to the Depression, but he remained adamantly opposed to direct government aid to the unemployed. FDR (as the headlines dubbed him) pledged a “New Deal” for the American people, and promised a more experimental approach to resolving the economic crisis and creating a more secure society. Hoover told voters that the campaign was not between two men but between two philosophies of government, and warned that Roosevelt’s reliance on government solutions would lead to regimentation. In their meetings, Hoover sought to commit Roosevelt to the outgoing administration’s economic policies, even though Roosevelt had just won an election by campaigning against them. Roosevelt explained that he came to learn, not to consent to specific policies. He felt that he lacked authority to assume responsibility for government actions before he officially took office. As the banking crisis deepened, the two met again on Hoover’s last day in office. Roosevelt declined Hoover’s request to

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sign a joint proclamation closing all U.S. banks. Hoover could have issued the proclamation on his own authority but, politically defeated and personally unpopular, he did not. FDR would wait to act until he became president the next day. For Roosevelt, Hoover’s insistence on joint action suggested a failure to grasp how differently the new administration planned to operate. Yet at the same time, Roosevelt accepted an offer from Hoover’s top Treasury Department officials to remain on the job to draft emergency banking legislation for the new administration. Under that plan, Roosevelt declared a bank holiday, closed all the banks, and then reopened those that were solvent, following government scrutiny of their books. Hoover’s indecisiveness handed his successor a triumph at the very start of his presidency. Roosevelt’s New Dealers regarded the bank holiday as the turning point of the Depression. Public confidence rebounded with the reopening of the banks in sound condition. The transition between Hoover and Roosevelt had been peaceful but not productive. Observers faulted both men: Hoover for asking Roosevelt to do more than he should have; Roosevelt for not finding some room for cooperation. Lessons learned from that experience have in some ways affected all subsequent presidential transitions, through to the 2009 transition between George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Outgoing presidents now work to facilitate the transfer of power to their successors, offering assistance and making recommendations but not trying to force their future course of action. n The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.

Did You Know? Number of users of Orkut social network: over 100,000,000 Nations accounting for most Orkut traffic: (1) Brazil; (2) India Nelson Mandela’s age at imprisonment: 44; at release from prison: 71 Nelson Mandela’s age upon assuming the South African presidency: 75 First U.S. President to be defeated in a campaign for re-election: John Adams (1800) Tyrannical Roman emperors to which Adams’ supporters compared his opponent, Thomas Jefferson: Tiberius, Nero, Caligula Number of employment positions a new U.S. president must fill: approx. 7,000 Number of days between Winston Churchill’s electoral defeat and his vacating the Prime Minister’s residence: 1 Number of days between U.S. President Herbert Hoover’s electoral defeat and his vacating the White House upon the swearing in of Franklin D. Roosevelt: 116 eJournal uSa 28

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How a Partially Free Election Altered Poland Anna Husarska

Courtesy University of Maryland

A poster encourging voters to support Solidarity in communist Poland’s first partially free elections. It features Gary Cooper, star of the 1959 Hollywood western High Noon. The Polish text reads: “High Noon: 4 June 1989.”

Anna Husarska is a translator, journalist, and humanitarian worker. She was a staff writer at the New Yorker magazine, and has reported from major conflict zones around the world for leading newspapers and policy magazines, including the Washington Post, Newsweek, the International Herald Tribune, the Wall Street Journal, the Guardian (U.K.), and Slate. This first-hand account of how Poland’s 1989 election turned the tide toward democratic government describes the powerful impact of a determined civil society, even when an election is by agreement only partly free and fair.

he famous image of Hollywood star Gary Cooper from the 1952 western “High Noon” was used during the Polish elections of June 1989, with Cooper sporting a “Solidarity” badge in his lapel. But the true hero in the election, which brought down Poland’s Communist regime, was not a town sheriff killing the bad guys, but the civil society organizations whose dozen years of patient work were bearing fruit. This work started in 1975 when intellectuals defended workers imprisoned for a strike and created the Workers’ Defense Committee, KOR. KOR trained and prepared Polish workers introducing them to their own rights; when a strike broke out in 1980 in the Gdansk shipyard, they successfully demanded the creation of Solidarity, the first free trade union in the Soviet bloc. As the Communist regime had always suppressed most other segments of Polish civil society, Solidarity emerged as an umbrella organization representing many civil society currents. The regime found it necessary to engage Solidarity in a round table discussion. A bargain was made to hold a partly free parliamentary election, the regime reserving for itself 65 percent of the seats in the lower house. With 10 million members — almost one third of Poland’s population — Solidarity was probably one of the most popular per capita movements in the world’s history, and yet the result of the election was difficult to foretell because there were no opinion polls that one could trust. I was working then at the opposition’s, i.e. Solidarity’s, daily newspaper, aptly called Gazeta Wyborcza or Electoral Gazette. On election day, June 4, 1989, Solidarity was far from sure of winning. But we were very well prepared for the battle at the ballot box. The Communists had been cheating their own people for several decades so there was the expectation that they would do the same at these elections. For decades, civil society groups such as an informal “Flying University,” clandestine publishing houses, theater ensembles that performed in churches, and ad hoc groups of sociologists or economists opposed the policies of the regime. These groups helped prepare a whole parallel society through

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underground education, publications, cultural events, sociological studies, and proposals for economic recovery. So civil society was ready for the challenge of this partly free ballot. Although there were no nongovernment organizations per se, the joke went that “the only nongovernment entities in Poland are the Communist rulers.” The electoral slogans were entirely positive because civil society had to prove that it was nobler, and also because the hatred of the Communists needed no fuelling. The most famous was a catchy song “So that Poland be Poland” (i.e., not a Soviet satellite country), and of course the memorable type font, which depicted the word “Solidarity” as a tight crowd marching with a flag. Civil society’s access to state television was restricted, and the regime surrounded Solidarity’s few advertisements with spots designed to mislead, to confuse citizens into ultimately voting for a candidate other than the one they meant to cast their ballots for. We knew this, so we distributed little reminders: “If you are with Solidarity, cross out everyone but these” — and the names of our candidates followed. We were only partly surprised when the regime found people of the same last names as our candidates and ran them as Communist candidates for the same seats. We expected that the Communists would play dirty, so we told Solidarity’s electoral observers to carry flashlights, lest the Communists cut off the power and stuff the ballot boxes — and extra pens, lest officials claim they had none so people could not vote.

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My own role was minimal but very telling: I was on the “toilet-visit-relay-squad.” We visited all the voting stations in one district, allowing the Solidarity observer to go to the toilet. This way we made sure that authorities were not stuffing ballot boxes during the observer’s brief absence. It was a tiny contribution to prevent the Communists from cheating us once more, but I’m very proud of it. After Solidarity’s victory, came the dissolution of the Communist Party and democratic reforms swiftly followed. Repressive departments in the Ministry of Interior — of “fight against the intellectuals,” “fight against the Church,” “fight against trade unions” and “fight against disobedient peasants” — were abolished, and local elections in spring 1990 were free and fair. At the end of the year, Solidarity leader Lech Walesa — a man who collaborated with intellectuals, was supported by the church, headed a trade union and cooperated with disobedient peasants — was elected president by the Polish people. But for me the June 1989 election remained a crucial turning point. When it was announced that Solidarity took all but one seat it was allowed to compete for, I could see why: The entire society had become a civil society. n The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.

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Authoritarian Rule to European Union Membership: Romania and Moldova

Grigore Pop-Eleches

In December 2006, a woman at a Bucharest, Romania, flag factory sews European Union and Romanian flags in preparation for Romania’s joining the E.U. on January 1, 2007.

An assistant professor of politics and public and international affairs at Princeton University, Grigore Pop-Eleches has researched the domestic and international dynamics of economic and political reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. These subjects are the focus of his book From Economic Crisis to Reform: IMF Programs in Latin America and Eastern Europe (Princeton University Press, 2009). Two formerly Communist-bloc lands have followed diverse political paths. Romania successfully sustained democratic governance and is now a member of the European Union. Moldova’s democratic process has been more difficult. A study of events in these two nations reveals the contribution of civil society and democratic institutions to stable transitions to newly elected governments.

ince the demise of communism in the Soviet Union and its East European satellite states, those nations have established democracy at different paces and with varying degrees of success. One means to explore the reasons for this divergence, and to learn more about the conditions in which democracy thrives, is to study how comparable nations fared in one of the crucial tests of genuine democracy: the peaceful transfer of power between opposing political parties and leaders. A comparison of two post-communist states suggests that domestic reforms, driven by a desire to achieve greater integration with other democratic nations and monitored by an active civil society, strengthen a country’s capacity to transfer power peacefully and to sustain democratic governance.

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ElEcTORAl DyNAMIcS One revealing comparison is between the electoral dynamics of Moldova and Romania, from 1989 through their most recent elections. The comparison is justified by their shared culture and history, as well as by their comparable levels of socio-economic development at the outset of the post-communist transition. Moreover, the two countries had (at least superficially) comparable trajectories, with the early 1990s dominated by reformed ex-Communists, who were eventually defeated by broad center-right coalitions, first in Romania (1996) and later in Moldova (1998). While these defeats marked important milestones in each nation’s democratic development, the euphoria was short-lived as the center-right coalitions were undermined by deep economic crises and political infighting. Each suffered a crushing defeat in 2000-01. However, this is where the parallels end. In Romania, a reformed ex-Communist Party continued economic and political reforms, made significant progress towards European integration, and achieved European Union membership. Moldova became the first European country to return unreformed Communists to power through democratic elections. While the Moldovan Communists moderated their initially shrill anti-market and antiimperialist rhetoric, their eight years in power nevertheless marked a significant erosion of democratic freedoms. By contrast, the influence of international expectations and the demands of domestic civil society groups significantly contributed to Romania’s more rapid progress in transitioning beyond elections into post-election good governance. TRANSFERS

POWER

In 2009, the results of this divergence became apparent in how each nation responded to hotly contested and very close elections. In each case — the aftermath of the April 2009 Moldovan parliamentary elections and the November/December 2009 Romanian presidential elections — the losing side alleged fraud, but with very different results. In Moldova, the fraud allegations — at least partially substantiated by foreign observers — triggered massive political protests that turned violent in the capital, Chisinau, and resulted in the destruction of the parliament building and the presidential palace. The reactions of the main Moldovan political parties and mass

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media reflect the deep divide running through Moldovan politics and society. President Vladimir Voronin and most of the state-run media blamed opposition parties and the Romanian government for supporting the “criminal bands” that they held responsible for the violence. The Moldovan opposition, along with much of civil society and parts of the private mass media, argued that the protests instead represented a spontaneous expression of frustration by anti-communist, pro-Western youths, especially students. Moreover, they insisted that proregime instigators initiated the violence to delegitimize protest and pave the way for a restored dictatorship. The heavy-handed official repression that followed resulted in hundreds of arrests and allegations of widespread police violence. While the government eventually agreed to new elections that produced a narrow opposition victory, the Communist Party continues to command enough support to block the economic and political liberalization that could assure peaceful transfers of power in the future. By contrast, in Romania, the electoral dispute was resolved peacefully after a partial recount of voided votes. The loser, Mircea Geoana, accepted defeat and congratulated his opponent, though he vowed to pursue a parliamentary investigation into the fairness of the presidential contest. The Romanian political elite’s willingness to assert its interests within the framework of Romania’s (admittedly imperfect) democratic institutions explains why the election outcome has sparked few protests and no violence. Several interrelated factors explain why the potential for post-election violence was greater in Moldova than in Romania. First, Romania’s successful application to and subsequent membership in the European Union (E.U.) encouraged all the main political players to accept shared democratic standards. In 1993, the Copenhagen European Council stipulated that candidate nations for E.U. membership must have achieved “stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and respect for and protection of minorities.” Because an overwhelming majority of Romanians favored membership, a number of significant reforms followed. These reforms restrained significantly the ex-Communists’ ability to bend the rules in their favor, and helped explain why they agreed to turn over power peacefully after their electoral defeat in 1996. While Moldova has increased its collaboration with the European Union since 2005, its government’s formal commitment to political, economic, and institutional

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NEW TOOlS Looking ahead, modern communication technologies may hold a key to strengthening civil society in both nations. Twitter, Facebook and SMS (Short Message Service) helped Moldovan protesters coordinate and mobilize in a remarkably short time during the 2009 parlimentary elections. The Western media even dubbed the events in Moldova the “Twitter Revolution.” Likewise, in Romania, social media appears to have affected turnout of diaspora voters, who overwhelmingly supported President Traian Basescu and ended up deciding the election. While the future of these new tools remains unclear, their importance to civil society groups will likely grow. The consequences for democratic elections, and for the freedom of expression they require, may prove an important part of democracy’s story in the 21st century. n The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.

reforms has not yet produced significant actual results. While reforms are likely to accelerate under the new government, the nation still faces Russian opposition to closer Western integration. Moreover, its civil society institutions by most measures are less deeply rooted than in Romania, in part because Moldova has suffered from much more extensive emigration in the last decade. Second, a combination of international and civil society pressures has produced a gradual but significant reform of the ex-communist Romanian Social Democratic Party (PSD) whereas the Moldovan Communists are both rhetorically and politically more attached to the Soviet past. The resulting lack of reform has deepened partisan differences between the Communists and the anti-communist opposition, and has narrowed the scope of possible political alliances and compromises to a much greater extent than in Romania. Finally, the development of an independent mass media started much earlier in Romania than in Moldova because of that country’s greater variety of private media sources and lower government control over the public media. As a result, the dissemination of political information was more balanced in Romania. This in turn lowers the potential for manipulation of information as means of stoking conflict.

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“No Fraud”: A Moldovan protester in front of the Chisinau election commission headquarters prior to the July 2009 parliamentary election.

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“Serbian Autumn” Delayed: A Lesson in Uncivil Democracy-Building

Zoran Cirjakovic

March 2001: Posters call for former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic’s arrest. They depict him behind bars with the question “When?”

Zoran Cirjakovic lectures on journalism at the Faculty of Media and Communications in Belgrade, Serbia. He has reported for Newsweek and the Los Angeles Times during and since the former yugoslavia’s transition to democracy. Political realities differ in each nation. Here, a first-hand observer of the “Serbian Autumn” that brought down the autocrat Slobodan Milosevic attributes democracy’s gain not primarily to nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and other civil society institutions, but to cold-blooded politics.

utumn is often a risky time of the year for Serbian leaders. Faced with a bitterly cold Balkan winter and frustrated by personal and economic hardships, Serbs tend to look for change. In the last days of September 1987, Slobodan Milosevic ousted his longtime mentor Ivan Stambolic and changed the course of Balkan history. Mindful of autumn frustrations and spring hopes building during his decade-long rule, Milosevic customarily called elections in the dead of winter, when harsh weather might preempt some opposition outrage. He ultimately did lose an election, but not through the work of Western-funded nongovernmental organizations or independent trade unions, which played marginal roles. Instead, Milosevic’s chief nemesis was an unlikely

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coalition of seasoned politicians and a grassroots students’ movement. It was a huge surprise when Milosevic called elections for September 24, 2000 — in autumn, not winter. The outcome was not in Milosevic’s favor. Milosevic attempted to manipulate the election’s results by trying to coerce the Serbian electoral commission and the Supreme Court into calling the second round instead of declaring Vojislav Kostunica the new president after the first round. His attempts to alter its results led to a series of mass protests and strikes throughout Serbia, even in places that had been considered Milosevic’s strongholds. Main streets were blocked in most big cities, garbage was not collected for days and opposition supporters organized daily protest walks. The unrest paralyzed most of the country and culminated in what is often referred to as the “October 5 Overthrow” or simply “The Revolution.” Two lessons emerged from these events. One is that elections, even when they are neither free nor fair, can be dangerous for autocrats. Another is that “established” civil society organizations are not always the best catalysts for overturning autocratic rule. Instead, the unlikely key player in the odd cast of characters and groups who secured the longed-for change was Kostunica, the man who defeated Milosevic at the September polls. Strongly nationalist like Milosevic, he appealed to Serb voters disgusted by Milosevic’s failures. Kostunica had not adopted Western values and ideas. The soft-spoken, lackluster Kostunica drew little attention from Milosevic’s vicious propaganda machine. The incumbent’s efforts instead were trained on Zoran Djindjic, the regime’s most formidable opponent and Kostunica’s rival turned reluctant partner. State-run media had so successfully demonized Djindjic that he stood no chance at the polls. Djindjic was neither ruthless nor irresponsible. He was courageous, Machiavellian, pragmatic possibly to a fault, and ready always to cut corners and make deals. Those traits made him indispensable during those autumn days, when the future of Serbia hung in the balance. Instrumental for the success of the revolution was Otpor, a grassroots students’ movement that overnight became Milosevic’s adversary. Otpor benefited from the

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advice of retired U.S. Army Colonel Robert Helvey and generous funding from the Washington-based National Endowment for Democracy. Otpor was not a typical NGO, but a fast-growing students’ movement with a collective, highly decentralized leadership, which made it more effective than the typical, Western-funded Serbian NGO. Equally important, infinitely more surprising — and less funded — were the coal miners of Lazarevac, a small town south of Belgrade. Once loyal to the regime, their strike was the first sign that Milosevic’s government would not survive the election, tampered results or not. I realized that Milosevic was “finished” on October 5th, as chanting protestors gathered in the early morning in Belgrade. I saw groups of football fans joining the crowd at the huge square in front of the Yugoslav parliament. Milosevic had deftly channeled the destructive energy and zeal of these “football hooligans” into paramilitary units for almost a decade. Now they finally turned against him. The most fervent fans were those who crashed police lines and turned the tide during the brief eruption of violence that saw both the parliament and state television burning. This uncivil end of Milosevic’s decidedly uncivil rule is a sobering testament to the failure of civil society and the deficiencies, at least in the Serbian context, of trying to build democracy by channeling aid through NGOs. Instead, many citizens have grown suspicious of those organizations whose support of reform has too often been either tepid or counterproductive. To this day, many Serbian NGOs are run by a single leader more occupied with securing and retaining Western sponsorship than with addressing complicated and often unpleasant political realities in a land where progress sometimes depends upon disagreeable political bargains. Without the “uncivil” compromises and unsavory alliances, we would still be waiting for the “Serbian Autumn.” n The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government.

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Additional Resources

Books, articles, Web sites, and films on the peaceful transition of power Books and Articles Burke, John P. Presidential Transitions: From Politics to Practice. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2000.

Kumar, Martha Joynt and Terry Sullivan, eds. The White House World: Transitions, Organization and Office Operations. College Station, TX: A and M University Press, 2003.

Campbell, Kurt M. Difficult Transitions: Foreign Policy Troubles at the Outset of Presidential Power. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2008.

Larson, Edward J. A Magnificent Catastrophe: The Tumultuous Election of 1800, America’s First Presidential Campaign. New York, NY: Simon and Schuster, 2007.

Clinton, W. David, and Daniel G. Lang, eds. What Makes a Successful Transition? Charlottesville, VA: Miller Center of Public Affairs, University of Virginia, 1993.

Linz, Juan J. and Alfred Stepan. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996.

Corcoran, Paul E. “Presidential Concession Speeches: The Rhetoric of Defeat.” Political Communication, vol. 11, no. 2 (April-June 1994): pp. 109-131. Goodwin, Doris Kearns. “The Man Who Lost What He Loved.” McCall’s, vol. 120, no. 5 (February 1993): p. 102. Halchin, L. Elaine. Presidential Transitions: Issues Involving Outgoing and Incoming Administrations. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2008. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34722.pdf Horwitz, Paul. “Honor’s Constitutional Moment: The Oath and Presidential Transitions.” Northwestern University Law Review, vol. 103, no. 2 (2009): pp. 10671081. http://www.law.northwestern.edu/lawreview/ colloquy/2008/47/LRColl2008n47Horwitz.pdf Huntington, Samuel P. “How Countries Democratize.” Political Science Quarterly, vol. 124, no.1 (Spring 2009): pp. 31-71. Jones, Charles O., ed. Preparing to Be President: The Memos of Richard E. Neustadt. Washington, DC: AEI Press, 2000.

Pfiffner, James P. The Strategic Presidency: Hitting the Ground Running. Lawrence, KS: University of Kansas Press, 1996. Sirianni, Carmen. Investing in Democracy: Engaging Citizens in Collaborative Governance. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2009. U.S. Congress. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Subcommittee on Government Management, Organization, and Procurement. Passing the Baton: Preparing for the Presidential Transition: Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Organization, and Procurement of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, 110th Congress2nd session, September 24, 2008. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2009.

Web Sites Brookings Institution: Governance http://www.brookings.edu/governance.aspx In-Depth Coverage: Obama’s Transition to Power http://www.pbs.org/newshour/indepth_coverage/white_house/ transition2008/

Kubba, Laith. “Institutions Make the Difference.” Journal of Democracy, vol. 19, no. 3 (June 2008): pp. 37-43.

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The Presidential Transition http://www.govexec.com/specialreports/transition.htm Transition: 2008 Presidential Campaign http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/chrntran08.html The U.S. Department of State assumes no responsibility for the content and availability of the resources listed above. All Internet links were active as of January 2010.

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The Man of the Moment: Muhammadu Buhari A New Book about the ANPP Presidential Candidate – Buhari by Peter Opara Review by EDU NNODIM, PhD edu.nnodim@yahoo.com Posterity Books P.O.Box 261 Canton, Ma 02021 USA 70 Pages Price: $12.00 ISBN - 978-09653465-3-5 Peter Opara, a prolific writer, erudite scholar and one of Nigeria’s leading, contemporary political commentators, has just added another feather to his list of books with the release of The Man of the Moment: Muhammadu Buhari. This book in seventy pages conveys the magnitude of Buhari’s political achievements, while offering a wonderfully rounded portrait of the ever-surprising Buhari personality. The book is highly readable and informative.

real and imaginary enemies into shaky defenses. One such objection to Buhari’s presidential ambition would be that Buhari was a military leader. The author uncovers the historical dialectics leading to the coup d’etat, which brought Buhari to power in 1984. The result of this historical fact-finding makes it clear that Buhari did not participate in that coup; rather the Nigerian military coup plotters needed a man of integrity, a disciplined and no nonsense soldier to redeem their unexpected state of self-doubt and group-doubt. Hence, the emergence of the then Brig. General Buhari as commander-in-chief. As most Nigerians would attest, BuhariIdiagbon’s war against indiscipline and corruption in high and low places, unsettled the moral disequilibrium associated with military rule.

to unsaddle the moral giant. Since the end of the Buhari-Idiagbon regime, Nigeria has Unlike most books The discipline, san- become a den of written about thieves, 419ners, ity and progress prominent charmurderers, political Nigerians experiacters, The Man of enced during the blockheads, dumbthe moment does Buhari-Idiagbon bells, twerps, etc. not begin with an regime, cast dewith despicable, outright, empty deplorable and spair among the eulogy of Buhari, unconscionable ranks and files of but rather with a moral free space the coup plotsomewhat schounprecedented in ters, who feared lastic disputation, Buhari would de- the history of any providing persua- scend upon them African nation. sive and logically flinging his moral convincing anhammer. Terrified The current deswers to hypotheti- like the legendbasement of the cal Buhari skeptics. ary Frankenstein, Nigerian basic soThis immediately the coup plotters, cial, economic and knocks Buhari’s once again, set out moral structure

resonates beyond the borders of Nigeria. It is ugly and stinky. Every Nigerian, without exception, is tagged a criminal or at least dubious in international circles. This situation has left Nigerians dreaming and gasping for the return of Buhari in government: “Buhari has remedy of presence. Peoples of Nigerian nations, who are desirous of a decent polity in which to do busi-

ness, politics or economics, must experiment on remedy of presence”. As the book reiterates, Buhari today is an outstanding democrat, upon whom the light of history beams with pride. It is time once again, to give this man the opportunity to sanitize and clear the garbage in our polity. The Man of the Moment, though as polemical as

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Nigerian politics itself, does not find it necessary to vilify Obasanjo. Nevertheless, it throws open the qualities of Buhari, a man whose name is synonymous with discipline and order, while decrying the BabangidaObasanjo power continuum. The IBB-OBJ power continuum has left Nigeria sick and stinky, and plagued with a litany of misdeeds, misfortune, mishap, embezzlement, underperformance, etc. :

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“For eight long years – 1999-2007, peoples of Nigerian nations have experienced Lootocracy in the name of Democracy. Lootocracy – government of looters, by looters, for looters. Nowhere in the world, since the Greeks invented the practice of ‘government of the people by r the people’ – Democracy – has there been such brazen and fragrant robbery of people’s economic and political franchise, as today’s Obasanjo/ PDP Nigeria”

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walking in the gal- it, the forthcoming lant strides of Mu- election is a choice hammadu Buhari: between good and evil. Buhari repre“Peoples of Nige- sents the good. The Man of the rian nations have reason to be hope- Moment is a porful. After nine years table, non-bulky book , which will (April 1999- April 2007) of steadfast serve as a pocket dictionary of Niabuse, terror and neglect by Oluse- gerian politics, gun Obasanjo re- and above all, as another cogent gime, they have reason to choose the opportunity to put at the helm, Buhari as the next Even in the face through their fran- Nigerian president. of the present economic despon- chise, a leader that The book is an ildency, the author cares, a leader that luminating delight in the study of urges Nigerians to will exist to work change the course for their wellbeing turbulent Nigerian of their fate, from and welfare. Buhari politics. Simply surprise for Nigeria. evil to good, by yourself yonder working alongside As the author puts the gadfly, and Like Friedrich Nietzsche’s superman, the book portrays Buhari as the man of the moment, whose fusion of Apollonian and Dionysian elements will rescue Nigeria from the abyss of moral decadence and annihilation.

I have been vindicated – Etiebet A member of the Board of Trustees, Peoples Democratic Party, Chief Don Etiebet, said he has been vindicated by the defeat of the PDP to the All Progressives Congress in the 2015 presidential election. He stated that when he discovered a crack in the party structure, he tried to get access to President Goodluck Jonathan but the Akwa Ibom State Governor, Mr. Godswill Akpabio, did not allow him or any other persons from the state access to the president. Etiebet added that what happened on Tuesday’s elections announcement was as a result of rebellion against the PDP. He added that half of the votes from the PDP controlled-states pro-

pelled the APC to victory. The former petroleum minister stated that by the president’s actions in congratulating Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari(retd.) on the victory, saying it was a new beginning for the country’s politics. According to him, the result is exciting, adding that it was historic for the incumbent president in Nigeria to lose in an election. Etiebet said, “I will also like to say that it was not APC winning, it was not PDP losing. Do you know that from the analysis, the total number of votes lost by PDP controlled-states was more than half of the total number of APC winning votes? “You can analyse what happened

The APC governorship candidate in Akwa Ibom State, Mr. Umana Umana, by yourself. You said he was happy will discover that that his party won somebody was the presidential misled somewhere, somehow; election. attention was not He said, “I am happy that my party, paid by the PDP hierarchy and the APC, is behind the people had to reb- wind of change blowing across el. Nigeria. “This is a rebellion against the party, “With Buhari, the era of impunity has including myself. finally come to an I did everything end. The moment to let them know that they were on is historic for Nigeria. Buhari has a wrong course, character; he has but my Governor what is required to (Akpabio) tried turn Nigeria round, to bring a local politics to national politically and economically.” level; that he will not allow anybody else access to the APC member and Former House of president and to Representatives asthe leadership of pirant for Uyo Fedthe party. eral Constituency, Mrs. Dora Ebong, “And by God’s grace, I have been said she was happy vindicated today. It about the outcome is the PDP that lost of the presidential election. the election.” Etiebet stated that governorship elections in April 11 will follow the suit.

She stated that she did not have confidence in the electoral process

because of the way a single man hijacked the process in Akwa Ibom State. She added, “In the just concluded presidential election, I went round the 42 wards in my Federal Constituency and I told my people that even if Akpabio succeeds in stealing all the votes from Akwa Ibom State for Jonathan and he did not win the vote in Kano, Borno or Sokoto, it will be sheer nonsense.” Former Commissioner for Information, Mr. Ita Awak, said thousands of PDP members had defected to the APC overnight. He stated that with what had happened, the state was ready to vote in “the peoples governor”, Mr. Umana Umana, on April 11.

44 I April 1 - 15 2015

Letter to the editor

AN OPEN LETTER TO PRESIDENTELECT, MOHAMMADU BUHARI Ozodi Osuji, PhD My dear Mohammadu Buhari, may I join the millions of Nigerians in congratulating you for winning the 2015 Nigerian election to become the president. We all look forward to your stewardship of the Nigerian ship of state during the next four years, and, hopefully, during the next eight years. However, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you why we elected you to this high office. We were disappointed with the leadership, actually, non-leadership of the clueless one, Good luck Jonathan. He promised us heaven and gave us hell. During his tenure, problems that were already there, though he did not cause them, were exacerbated. Corruption, insecurity, lack of infrastructural development (roads, bridges, electricity, water, health facilities, health care delivery, and education for all Nigerians) and industrial development took a turn for the worse. Nigeria took a nose dive and Mr. Jonathan did not seem to care that under his watch no problems were fixed. In my view, Jonathan completely lost it when over two hundred of our school children

were kidnapped by the terrorist group, Boko Haram at Chibok and the man went dancing at Kano. Instead of staying in his office and doing whatever he could to get the children released, the man went on enjoying his self. For almost a month the man did nothing to rescue the girls. Not until the International community cried out and then, only then he pretends to care. Almost a year later he has not done anything to rescue the girls. Indeed, his idea of fighting Boko Haram seems to be to give his generals money to buy weapons and such money, apparently, redirected to the generals pockets, so that our soldiers did not have the right equipment to address the task they were given. Apparently, Jonathan did not want the soldiers to fight the war; maybe, he expected them to be patriots who died for the sake of dying for their country, whereas he and his wife were not even willing to visit the region where many Nigerians were been killed and or displaced from their homes. Jonathan is what a human being ought not to be; we hope that a human being, which you are, have now come to office and will help us solve

our myriad problems. From your antecedent behavior we know that you are a disciplined man and have a draconian approach to dealing with criminal behaviors. We are looking forward for you to deploy those traits of yours in tackling our identified issues, especially the problem of corruption. There is no reason why 55 years after independence from Britain we are still a backward country; we ought to be where the Asian tigers are today; you must help us get there. The problem with Jonathan is that he is neither a leader nor manager; he probably does not even understand what those terms mean! He does not know that a leader is a person who has visions, goals and objectives of what he believes that his society or work organization needs and he wants to help it achieve those goals. I certainly did not see any vision that seemed to be actuating Jonathan’s behaviors. The man simply had no mission; he was like a leaf blown around by the wind. If you have no place that you are going to then you would wind up anywhere that circumstances push you to.

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This man has no idea that Asian countries set goals of what they want to accomplish in five, ten and twenty years and addressed themselves to reaching those goals and mobilizing their human resources and capital to attain them. And set measurement standards with which to measure how well they attained their goals and where not attained corrective action plans undertaken to make sure that the goals were attained the next time around. What was Jonathan trying to accomplish for Nigeria? Honestly, I did not see any goal that the man was seeking to achieve. Was he trying to industrialize Nigeria? If so, what did he do to attract industries and factories to Nigeria? Was he trying to improve Nigeria’s education? If so, what exactly did he do for elementary, secondary and university education in Nigeria? Under his watch Nigerian education collapsed so that to graduate from Nigerian universities is now to be considered uneducated persons. Moreover, he does not seem to care that Nigerian university graduates have no jobs to go to. Our university graduates roam the streets unemployed and this man does not feel any urge to help them secure jobs. Imagine the hope-

lessness these graduates feel being unemployed after spending many years at schools. Apparently, other people’s suffering does not move Jonathan to a sense of compassion and desire to help them out. The man’s heart is made of stone. Nigeria needs emphasis on technical and vocational education (such as they have in Germany), so, what technical schools did Jonathan establish? This man had no clear idea what leaders do and did nothing that anyone would give him credit for accomplishing. Nor did he have an understanding of what managers do! No one told him that managers must have an understanding of the goals societies and or organizations have and work towards attaining those, using human and capital resources. Apparently, Jonathan’s idea of being the president of Nigeria was just to fly around in Nigerian and the world in Nigerian provided Jet airplanes, going to conferences all over the world where folks regarded him as a lightweight. Most participants at the conferences he jetted to did not even recognize his presence, talk more have him talk; folks did not listen to his talks. His opinions were as good as useless and no one cared to hear

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them. His wife came into the mix and apparently believed that she is the queen of a banana republic and did exactly whatever she wanted to do. This woman would come to town and the entire town would have to be practically closed; traffic would ground to a halt. She did not realize that all those work stoppages affected productive time for the people. Jonathan and

Letter to the editor

his wife were a disaster for Nigeria. Nigeria needs change from the two clowns and we are glad that a man who understands missions and what needs to be done to accomplish them, Buhari has come to office. Regarding corruption, Buhari’s mere presence would go a long way in checking corruption, for given his record as incorruptible most people would now look over their

shoulders should they be tempted to steal and or take bribes. On the other hand, given Jonathan’s “I do not care attitude to corruption” folks did not mind taking bribes while he is in the room with them for they knew that there were no consequences for their nefarious behaviors. Given Buhari’s military background, there is no doubt that he knows what to

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do to defeat the rag- tagged Boko Haram terrorists that have made life insecure for Nigerians in the North East part of the country. Finally, one hopes that Buhari surrounds his self with technocrats who would help him industrialize the country in a short period of time. A good leader does not do all the necessary jobs by his self; he has the ability to hire those subordinates who

Kenyatta Congratulates Buhari My congratulations go out to General Muhammadu Buhari for winning Nigerian general elections. The election of General Buhari is a clear indication of the faith and

a lot of humility and an indication that democracy has come of age in trust the people citizens of our of Nigeria have in two countries and Nigeria, and the African continent. No his leadership and the African condoubt this will earn vision. I am confi- tinent at large. I dent that relations also commend the him a place in the African eminent between Kenya outgoing Nigeria person’s honour. and Nigeria will be President Goodfurther strengthluck Jonathan for I thank President ened to promote conceding defeat. Jonathan for his aspirations of the This demonstrates efforts to promote

Not my hero! By Abdulrazaq Magaji (234- 805138-0793) Appeasement! Hypocrisy! Patronising! These are three unrelated words but which, by some curious happenstance, permeate the conduct of politicians. Undesired as they are, especially in their usage to describe individuals, the three words constitute the essential commodities needed to make mouth-watering and eye-popping political sauce. Many politicians would resist being called hypocriti-

being portrayed as a gentleman, a patriot, a democrat and a man of cal even when, at peace all rolled in the end of the day, one. Some even hypocrisy is at the cast him, wrongly heart of the game. if truth be told, in As well as being the mould of an hypocritical, ‘good’ agenda-setting politicians are deft national hero! The at appeasement misplaced portrayjust as they could al of Mr. Jonathan be patronising. as the best thing to happen to Nigeria’s Your thoughts are democracy flowed What does not valid: How does inspire hope is the from his reluctant General Muhammadu Buhari fit in level of hypocrisy, decision to consince he is believed appeasement and gratulate incoming president, General the desire to be to be decent and Muhammadu Buincorruptible? Your patronising that fears too are valid: characterised the hari. outcome of the Would the General, at 72, be able recently concluded Reluctant decito restrain people presidential elec- sion to concede defeat because the tion. This arises around him from from the way out- trashy speech he turning themmade on Tuesday going Nigerian selves into vulalluded to ‘certures? The answer president, Goodtain misgivings’ luck Jonathan, is to the posers lies in the name of the person we talking about. If the name Muhammadu Buhari is not reassuring enough, nothing else would! The much we know of the incoming vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, especially his austere lifestyle, inspires hope!

have the technical skills needed to accomplish his goals and objectives. We must all do whatever we can to help this descent and disciplined man accomplish his tasks. All of us must answer the call should he call us to help him accomplish the great goals he has in mind for Nigeria.

fruitful engagements between Kenya and Nigeria during his tenure, which enabled the deepening of bilateral relations.” UHURU KENYATTA - President of Kenya

over the outcome of an election in which he was roundly thrashed. Of course, his handpicked agent at the collation centre, Mr. Peter Godsday Orubebe, a failed governorship aspirant in Delta state gave the world an inkling of the alleged misgivings when he sought to disrupt the collation exercise. Mr. Orubebe was one of the prominent and favoured members of Mr. Jonathan’s cabinet who got the president’s nod to run for office in their respective states. Certainly, Mr. Orubebe was not playing out his own script.

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As if to confirm that Mr. Orubebe’s voice was his master’s, no statement came from the presidency to denounce what was clearly an invitation to anarchy. And when the semblance of a statement came, it was in the form of a presidential speech that lamely sought to justify Mr. Orubebe’s foolish act. Let’s put this straight: those who commend Mr. Jonathan for conceding forget, may be conveniently, that Mr. Jonathan had no option, anyway! Truth is, he had twenty four hours to avoid becoming an unwilling guest of ICC prosecutors at The Hague in the event of any election-violence. It is a secret of the market place that hate campaigns by Mr. Jonathan and some of his close

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brigands from the Niger delta area, at the behest of supposed elders, held the nation by its jugular. The man who now fraudulently wishes to be identified as Mr. Jonathan may not look and a democrat saw nothing wrong sound sharp but, when his wife when it matters waddled round the most, he is sharp country to preach enough to know what to do to save her hate sermons. his skin. He knows It should surprise that his conduct sane men that Mr. and that of his Jonathan had a close confidants, including his wife, sound sleep by the side of his wife within the past month or so make the day she told the world that the it imperative for story of the kidMr. Jonathan to napped schoolensure a smooth handover. For most girls in Chibok was part of his better- stage-managed by forgotten years in opponents of the administration. A office, Mr. Jonapresident who hit than looked the the road barely other way as his twenty four hours handlers threatened war if he was after a bomb blast not re-elected. Not killed dozens in even a whimper in Nyanya, a suburb of Nigeria’s federal the form of concapital city must demnation came from the out-going have the heart of stone! Certainly, president when confidants, among them his endowed wife, Patience, and Mr. Orubebe, have placed them on the radar of the ICC!

THE BUHARI/OSINBAJO VICTORY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS (PARTS 1 & II)Dr. Wumi Akintide. I never thought my generations would ever live to witness the dream team that has just been elected in Nigeria by acclamation and consensus. I correctly predicted more than 6 months ago that Buhari had the potential to become the first opposition leader in Nigeria to beat the odds and dethrone a sitting Government. Many Nigerians had expected Obafemi Awolowo to be the

first to break than jinx but it was not meant to be. The man died after attempting to break the jinx 3 times. 4 days to this election I wrote my final article posted by the ChatAfrik, Google and Sahara and titled, “Buhari is the next President of Nigeria”. That article has since become one of the most popular articles for the month on ChatAfrik the last time I checked.

Everything I said in that article has been proved right except that Buhari actually performed a little bit better than I have predicted because the accuracy of my exit polling data were not as reliable as exit polling in the United States where I learnt the Probability Theory in Statistics as part of the requirement for my post graduate studies at the State University of Connecticut and

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it is wrong for Nigerians to make a hero out of a villain who sought to score cheap political points from an insurgency that claimed more than thirteen thousand lives, injured many more thousands and virtually destroyed the fabric that held north eastern Nigeria.

heroes are not made out of men who cannot reinin over-bearing spouses!

later on at the Yeshiva Jewish of New York where I was a Karl Ichan fellowship recipient for my second Master’s degree in Social Work from 1991 to 1993 My polling result was a little bit skewed because responses from voters in Nigeria are never as reliable as responses from exit voters in America my home away from home. In America whatever statements are credited to any of the top aides of any of the major candidates are considered as the viewpoints of their candidates.

When Fani Kayode the mentally-sick rabble-rouser who passed thru Oxford but Oxford University did not pass thru him came from nowhere to announce that Jonathan was leading in 23 states at a time INEC had only collated the results from only 2 states, he would have been called to order by his boss in a country like the United States and Britain. Whatever statement is made by the top aides of Ed Milliband the labor leader in Great Britain or David Cameron the Prime Minister are presumed to have

It is not for fun that Mrs. Jonathan should accept the dishonour of sending her husband into premature political retirement. From her characteristic waddle to her unclassified okrika grammar, If he has any moMrs. Jonathan ments of reflecrepresented yet tion, outgoing another classic president, Goodexample of how luck Jonathan, Nigeria became would by now have realized that a stage for barely literate and unserihe dug his politious actors and accal grave by over tresses to play out indulging some their funny acts. people around him. Of course, Mr. While it lasted, Nigerians had good Jonathan is weak laugh at the antics in every sense of of their clowning the world. In the six years he wasted first lady but deep the time of Nigeri- down, even those who ate from the ans, Mr. Jonathan projected himself crumbs off her as a man who was table knew Mrs. Jonathan was incaincapable of taking decisions. And, pable of any good. if truth be told,

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been approved or authorized by their bosses who cannot run away from any criticisms arising from such comments. It is a different story in Nigeria where Jonathan would authorize his aides to issue statements that he himself is too cowardly to make. It is part of the rigging gimmicks of African politicians in particular to propagate falsehood in the hope that some people would be misled or confused, if you keep presenting falsehood as a fact just like Adolf Hitler used to do. The duplicity of President Jonathan in encouraging all of his top aides to fly so many kites about pronouncements he himself could not make was part of the sad commentary in this election. When Ayo Fayose and Obanikoro were boasting on the audio tape recorded by Captain Sagir Koli that they were both working for the President and carrying out his orders, such a confession would never have been swept under the carpet in any country governed by the rule of Law. Thru the auspices of Sahara Reporters of New York the audio tape was made public on the Facebook and on the Internet for the whole world to see. Such a revelation would have called for an immediate hearing in the Parliament and the Law Enforcement

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without being told by the President would have moved into swift action to investigate and bring all of the culprits to book. In the Jonathan Government such revelations are not actionable because they are made by individuals who are very loyal to the President. So when Jonathan tells the whole world he is a transformational President who is going to change Nigeria, you have to wonder how the man is going to do it. The Law we are told is no respecter of persons but not in Nigeria. You can get away with murder in a country where an unelected individual like the First Lady exercises more powers than her own husband who is President. Rather than quickly condemn the gangsters and tell to stop rubbishing his legacy, what Mr. Jonathan did was to quickly condemn Captain Koli’s authentic audio tape as a mere fabrication. The President and the Military he presided over as Commander-in-Chief bluntly told the nation they could not do anything on the report because the serving military officer who blew the whistle had fled the country for his own safety. I am letting the whole world know right now that If Buhari and Osinbajo ever commit such an atrocity any time in their 4 year term, they would not be re-elected in 2019.

In fact they would be humiliated and disgraced out of office because Nigerians will never ever again tolerate a grossly incompetent and corrupt Government like the one Nigerians have just rejected. I am rooting for Buhari not because he has a beautiful wife. I am supporting him because he has the credibility to do the job to which he has been elected. He is toast if he fails to measure up to the expectation of Nigerians myself included. To add insult to an injury, the President went ahead to quickly nominate and submit the name of Obanikoro to the Senate for ratification as a minister despite all the hues and cry from the opposition. He went ahead to make Ayo Fayose his agent provocateur, Iyiola Omisore as a king pin in the PDP and Olusegun Mimiko as his defacto leader of the Yorubas. Those individuals were the same musketeers who masterminded the rigging of the Ekiti gubernatorial election for the PDP on June 20, 2014. I lost the little respect I had for Jonathan the day I saw the crime captured on tape by Captain Koli. Sahara Reporters the only social media to dare air the Sagir Koli audio tape was declared a “persona non grata” by the Jonathan Government. Captain Koli who has had to

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run away from the country to save his own life was never, at any time, talked about by President Jonathan and neither did President Jonathan order immediate investigation of such a high security breach by his Government. Captain Koli still remains in hiding as we speak thus making a mockery of the rule of Law in Nigeria. Idi Amin or Gbagbo of the Ivory Coast who were both disgraced out of office did not do anything more egregious than what Jonathan had done to rig the Ekiti elections. So President Jonathan in my book is not at all the Saint he impersonates as President. Jonathan was deaf and dumb when his wife urged Nigerians to stone to death anyone who preaches change in Nigeria and who dares to vote for Buhari. He nodded approval when Asari Dokubo threatened to invade the Yorubas for having the courage of our conviction to form an alliance with the Hausa/ Fulani to pave the way for the change the whole world is now celebrating with Nigeria. That notwithstanding I still give President Jonathan high marks for heeding the advice and the wiser counsel s of President Obama, and British Prime Minister, David Cameron and the joint counseling of the 3 man task

force composed of prominent African leaders as Kofi Annan , Thabo Mbeki and General Abdulsalam Abubakar who persuaded Jonathan to quickly concede victory and to take urgent steps to warn his Niger Delta militants like Asari Dokubo from causing any trouble in the aftermath of a historic election. That Jonathan would listen to those voices of reasons without delay is one of the reasons the outcome of the election has not led to the breakdown of Law and Order in Nigeria. The magnanimity shown both the victor and the victim has been extraordinary. The way and manner that Professor Jega and his INEC commissioners have handled the collation of results in a very transparent way was a classic that has made Professor Jega the unsung hero of the Nigerian elections and arguably the greatest and the best INEC chairman Africa has ever produced. I won’t be surprised if Professor Jega becomes an emissary of the United Nations in the foreseeable future to teach other African nations how to conduct free and fair elections. All the collation officers were Professors, Vice Chancellors and Deputy Vice Chancellor who would not like to rubbish their own prestige, integrity and reputation to save a fall-

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ing President. Jega has gone down in the history as the Professor Peller or Houdini of the Nigerian electoral process who has succeeded where Justice Ovie Whiskey and other legal luminaries and intellectuals like Professor Nwosu and the other southerners have woefully failed. The northerners as a rule are far more honest than their southern counterparts. This election has proved that axiomatic belief. I have worked with a few northerners in my Public Service career. Alhaji Sule Katagun the former Chairman of the Federal Civil Service Commission was one of them. Super Permanent Secretary Ahmed Joda from Girei in Adamawa State was one of them. Super Perm Sec. Alhaji Abubakar Alhaji from Sokoto was one of them. Permanent Secretary Alhaji Gambo Gubio from Maiduguri was another, Alhaji Mohammadu Mayo of Sardauna Province; my Principal Executive Officer in the Federal Ministry of Education way back in 1974 was one of them. Oxford-trained Permanent Secretary Abdul Azeez Attah the first son of Ohinoyi the Attah of Igbira Land was another. The last and not the least was Ambassador Sanusi, the Nigerian Ambassador to Morocco and the uncle of Lamido Sanusi the current

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Emir of Kano. He was the Ambassador when I represented Nigeria for 3 years as the Nigerian delegate to the CAFRAD Board of Trustees based in Tangiers, Morocco. They were all men of honor and embodiment of integrity that I would never forget till I die. Ahmed Joda in particular who was a journalist by profession but never had a College degree taught me all I knew when I was the Secretary to the National Council on Education while he was the Permanent Secretary. There is no way I can write on this election without first of all acknowledging the place of world dreamers and statesmen like the great Mahatma Gandhi who dreamt of a Pandit Nehru in India. I must not forget the great Martin Luther King who dreamt about the coming of a Barack Obama or Archbishop Desmond Tutu who dreamt of a Nelson Mandela and our own Chief Obafemi Awolowo who dreamt of the Buhari/Osinbajo ticket long before any of us did. Basketball fans in the United States used to refer to the best Nigerian Basketball player at the Houston Rockets, Akeem Olajuwon as “Akeem the dream” By the same token I call the Buhari/Osinbajo ticket as the dream team Nigeria has anticipated and prayed for in

more than half a century. The expectation from the “Osagyefo” Buhari and his Vice President, Professor Osinbajo is high but before I fully speak to that in the part II to this article, I must take liberty of this curtain raiser to focus on a broad outline of what Nigerians should expect or take away from the volcanic eruption of an election we have just witnessed in Africa’s most populous nation. If Nigeria sneezes the rest of Africa must of necessity catch cold. Barack Obama as leader of the Free World spoke forthrightly to President Jonathan and he told him the whole world cannot afford to see Nigeria fail or disintegrate into chaos in the wake of what is currently happening in the Pacific region and the Middle East in particular. It was a very wise move by the President of the United States and the first black man ever to reach that pinnacle of power. Jonathan had no other choice if he did not want to selfdestruct than to listen to the most powerful man in the Universe. I call it a paradox of history that the Southeast of Nigeria which fought a very expensive civil war to make way for change in Nigeria has now become the most ardent supporters of the ugly “status quo” in Nigeria more than 50 years

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later. Can you believe that? President Jonathan received the highest number of votes imaginable in the Southeast zone. There is little way the Igbos can turn round to claim a part in the victory the whole world is celebrating today. That is not to say that individuals like Governor Okorocha and former Governor Ngige, comrade Igbokwe, Rev father Camillus Ejike Mbaka to mention a few done been a big part of the Buhari victory. They have all worked their head off to make the change possible. Father Ejike Mbaka has not only fired the imaginations of millions of Catholic in his Diocese, he has clearly shown to us that some of our so-called pastors and men of God in Nigeria are really agents of Satan. I cannot help but pay tribute to Pastor Mrs. Adeboye who came to the Osinbajo Parish of the Redeemed Church of God in Lagos to make a pronouncement right in the presence of President Jonathan that categorically pointed to a victory for the Osinbajo team in the historic election. I could not be more proud of the woman who was more strident than her husband in revealing what God had told her. Pastor Adeboye gave what I would take as a tepid endorsement of Osinbajo and his

running mate when he totally stood by one of his pastors in the presence of President Jonathan who did not know whether to cry or to smile as the couple eulogized the team he was begging God to help him defeat. “Allahu Aqbar” I said to myself scratching my head as I watched the program on Television. God is truly great The outcome of the elections has clearly shown that Nigeria remains polarized by religion, ethnicity and tribalism as opposed to what Jonathan has claimed in his concession speech... The Igbos who used to see themselves as the greatest nationalists in the Azikiwe era have now become the greatest tribalists if they are to be judged by their voting pattern in this election. They once condemned the Yorubas for preferring Awolowo instead of Azikiwe to become the pioneer Premier of Western Region. Looking back I have to thank God that Azikiwe did not become the first Premier of the Yorubas. The Igbos would have been reminding all of us we were at one point in the history of Nigeria their slaves. I am happen the Yorubas and Awolowo and late Pa Akinloye and his Mobalaje Grand Alliance did not allow that to happen. The igbos have voted more solidly for

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one of their own, Jonathan whose mother is Igbo and whose middle name is “Azikiwe” not by sheer coincidence. On the contrary the Southwest or the Yorubas have now shown by their voting patterns and distribution in this election they are arguably the least detribalized zone among the 6 Geo political zones of Nigeria. The outcome of the election in each of the 6 states of the Southwest has reflected that reality. We all must never lose sight of that and if the Igbos want to do that, I would not let them as a bornagain Yoruba historian and one of the offspring of Oodua and a Prince of the Adesida Royal Dynasty of Akure who value my noble birth and would not trade it off for a pot of porridge, come rain or shine. Both Buhari and Jonathan recorded their 25 per cent mandatory score in all of the Southwest states making the Yoruba states the most politically-savvy states in Nigeria if the truth must be told. In which other state in Nigeria could the Igbos as a voting block have managed to score 5 seats in any part of Nigeria other than their own? Well it has happened in Lagos, and that is a first in Nigeria that cannot be dismissed with the wave of the hand. I predicted in my last article that that the South-

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west has become the swing vote in Nigeria hat both the two leading presidential candidates in Nigeria would need to win before they can be pronounced the overall winner. The Southwest has done that and that is why Ashiwaju Ahmed Tinubu and the jagaban of Borgu has earned the merit to now step into the shoes of Obafemi Awolowo as leader of the Yorubas. I know the present Ooni Risa Lawarikan Sijuwade Olubushe the II may be too embarrassed to make the conferment because of the feud between the two of them. IF he doesn’t do it, and give honor to whom honor is due, I can tell you that Sijuwade’s successor as the next Ooni will do it. We are praying for long life for Olubuse the Second but I seize this opportunity to remind Kabiyesi he would never have been crowned the Ooni without a fight if late Uncle Bola Ige was not the Oyo State Governor at the time and if the relic of the old Action Group was not in power at the time. A word should be enough for the wise. The Yorubas have spoken loud and clear that Ahmed Tinubu regardless of his roots which have been traced to Iragbiji in Osun is a Yoruba born-again hero who has earned his wings to be proclaimed

and confirmed as Leader of the Yorubas right now. He could then take steps to unite the Yorubas as he must. Olusegun Mimiko missed road by thinking and believing he could dislodge the great Asaju of Lagos who is not a perfect human being like the rest of us. But on balance, I take off my hat for Ahmed Tinubu. He has done what Obafemi Awolowo, Samuel Ladoke Akintola have tried but could not do. I think President Jonathan recognized that feat when he placed a phone call to the Asiwaju soon after calling Buhari to concede defeat. Ahmed Tinubu has so to speak cut of the head of Gorgon the Medusa in Greek mythology if the truth must be told. The guy again is a Muslim meaning that not only Christians would make Heaven. I won’t be surprised if I get to Heaven and I find my grandfather Erinlakatabu Ogiso, Adimula Otolu Apara, O beri omo sagongon t’Oke Eda r’odo. O ro pupa bi Odide, Iwerepe gba ra re gbagi Oko waiting for me on the right hand of God because I am going to make Heaven as claimed by Elemure Ogunyemi in one of his Yoruba country music album “Ti emi ko ba subi s’Aiye , aiye mi a toro” Regardless of any religion any of us may profess, if we do good and

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truthfully love our neighbors as ourselves, we would all make Heaven. I can imagine Alhaji Yayi Akorede, my uncle, the Late Chief Imam of Akure, Alhaji Arisekola the Are of Yoruba Muslims making Heaven. I can imagine my paternal uncle late Pa Otokiti, the Pioneer Chief Imam of Benin City, Alhaji Sanusi the deposed Emir of Kano and Sir Alhaji Abubakar, the late Sultan of Sokoto making Heaven because they have all done good in their life time. That Ahmed Tinubu is a Muslim cannot and must not stop him from becoming the leader of the Yorubas is my point. The Awolowo leadership of the Southwest has yielded great dividend making Awolowo the greatest nationalist of his and our era. Those who labeled Awolowo a tribalist simply did not know him as I came to know him for the short time I was privileged to work under him as Chairman of the Special Task Force on Student Financing in Nigeria while he was Deputy Chairman of the Federal Executive Council and Federal Commissioner for Finance. I was the Secretary to that Task Force. Alhaji Shehu Shagari who later became head of State was a member of that Task Force. Alhaji Shettima Ali Monguno was another member. Late We-

nike Briggs from Rivers state was also a member to mention a few of the juggernauts that served on the Task Force. The historical election has now shown that the party with the highest grass root support in Nigeria is clearly the APC and not the PDP as previously claimed by the PDP. The APC has more grass root support even in the Boko Haram infected states. Just imagine the number of votes recorded in those states by APC and General Buhari. Who could have expected voters to turn out in such large numbers in the 5 states of the former Northeast where the voters knew they were taking a huge risk by coming out to vote. The quest for change was so strong and overwhelming that people still come out to vote for change in Nigeria “Ba mosi changi” they all chanted in Hausa “Sai Buhari Allahu Aqbar Yo Wa Haka ni” meaning there is no one to save Nigeria but Buhari because God the Almighty is truly great and that is what it is. Nigerians across the country have trooped out in large numbers to demonstrate their zest for change. The only exceptions are the Southeast and the South/South. If the Southwest has joined their band wagons Buhari and Osinbajo would

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not have won and the transformation Nigeria is now celebrating today would never have seen the light of day and the one party dictatorship of Nigeria would have been further entrenched and solidified. I take off my hat for the Southwest and Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu and Chief Bisi Akande who pioneered the move and defended it with everything they have got. Say anything you like about Ahmed Tinubu. Tinubu and Chief Bisi Akande have made history. They have earned the accolades to be the successor to Obafemi Awolowo who dreamt about it and Chief S.L.A. Akintola the man who first predicted the need for the Yorubas and the Hausa/Fulani to collaborate as an alternative to the Hausa/Fulani collaboration with the Igbos of the Southeast. Democracy thrives best when no party dictatorship is allowed to dominate the political firmament for as long as the NPC, the NPN and the PDP have done in Nigeria. If this new coalition of the Hausa/ Fulani and the Yorubas does not work, Nigerians should reserve the right to throw them out in 2019. Nigeria would not know which coalition works better for Nigeria until we have tried both just like is done in more stable and developed countries of the world.

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We all love Buhari and Osinbajo today because of our high expectations of them. It will be a different story if in 2019 we are still where we are. If I am still alive, I would be one of the people leading the efforts to kick them out if they do not perform as expected. For the very first time in the history of Nigeria, the opposition has defeated a sitting Government. For the first time a northerner has emerged as the Chairman of INEC and he has performed far better than all of his predecessors from the South combined. Who says the northerners are inferior to the southerners? Those who peddle such rumors should keep their peace forever. Education has permeated and liberated the North from coast to coast from sea to shining sea. Alelluyah! This election has proved that the South/South and the Southeast are less tolerant of Islam than the Southwest and the Middle Belt. The Yorubas of the Southwest have proved that both Muslims and Christians can peacefully co-exist because only God or Allah knows who is going to make Heaven or “Allujanah”. If Buhari, a Muslim has now been able to beat Jonathan a Christian who offered the Christian pastors a bribery of 7 Billion Naira to champion

his cause before God, what should Nigerians now say about those fake pastors who daily parade their closeness to God by speaking in tongues and telling cock and bull stories about their so-called revelations from God? I do not speak in tongues and I do not pretend that God speaks to me directly but I made a prediction in this election that has been far more accurate that some of the predictions made by some of those fake pastors who predicted Jonathan was going to win because money has changed hands. Lamido Sanusi a Muslim blew the whistle on President Jonathan. Today Lamido has been elevated to Emir of Kano for life and Jonathan the Christian who fired him as Governor of Central Bank had gone back to Kano to kneel down for Lamido and to beg him for his forgiveness and support in Kano. Lamido remains the Emir for life and Jonathan has received “Bako Daya” in the just concluded presidential elections in Nigeria. Jonathan has ceases to be President and he is going into oblivion as of May 29. Who says that Christians are more favored by God and Allah? If you still believe that nonsense, you will believe anything. Nigerians are less interested in religion today as a ba-

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sis for picking our leaders. Nigerians are more interested in performance as the yardstick for picking our leaders. Thank God for that. The Afenifere Group of the Awolowo era currently led by Chief Reuben Faseide Fashoranti and his cohorts have been repudiated and rejected by the Afenifere Renewal Group led by Ahmed Tinubu and Chief Bisi Akande. The APC have captured 5 out of the 6 Yoruba states. Ekiti would be the last one to fall because Ayo Fayose has never won a free and fair election in that state. Now that he no longer has the power to use the Military the Police and State Security any way he likes, we should all wait to see if he would continue to win elections in Ekiti, the fountain of knowledge in Nigeria. Ekitis are smarter than that. They cannot be led for too long by a hoodlum who would soon implode or be impeached because he is loose cannon. This election has revealed once and for all that traditional rulers across Nigeria and especially the corrupt and politically-biased ones among them and many others have lost their magic wand to influence the voting preferences of their subjects. They all converged at the Ooni’s Palace at Enuwa at Ile Ife to endorse Jonathan after taking

their own millions in bribery. Jonathan lost in most of those places where he was endorsed by the traditional rulers because most of the traditional rulers are living on borrowed times. Education has liberated the people Rivers State has had the distinction of disenfranchising a sitting Governor who is supposed to be the Chief Security Officer of his State. Rivers State under that conundrum has now shown herself to be the most politically aware state in Nigeria which manage to record more than 1.4 million votes for the Okrika-born First Lady of Nigeria in a show of shame that has gone down in history as the worse form of election rigging in a state that can be considered the backyard of President Jonathan. There is no way on Earth that Rivers State could have recorded such a high turnout of votes for the party in power in an election that did not start in any of the polling booths until midday. I reserve further comments on that till the 3 man panel set up by INEC to investigate the complaint by Governor Amaechi complete their investigations but I definitely smell a rat in that election and a few other states in the Southeast but more so in Edo and Delta and arguably in Kano. I am yet

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to understand the low turnout of voters in Lagos state as well. If Kano can return close to 2 million, Lagos with a population not less than 12 million should have recorded more voter turnout. I now believe the figures being peddled around that Nigeria’s population is 160 to 180 million is grossly exaggerated as Nigeria has never had any realistic Census. I was the presiding officer at Kabba Ijumu Local Government Census in 1973. I counted and signed for a total of 1,200 in the area I supervised as I recall. When the collation was later done in Ilorin of the defunct Kwara State, one more zero was added to 1200 to make it 12,000 in a heartbeat. Nigeria is afraid to do a realistic Census so the country can know how many mouths she is feeding. Awolowo once described the 1974 Census as dead on arrival and he killed the Census with his Convocation address at the University of Ife in 1974 as I wrote in one of my articles on the Nigeria Census widely publicized on the Internet and Google. I can tell you that Nigeria has less population that the 160 million being bandied around for public consumption. The result of the votings in Anambra, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Imo, Abia and Ebonyi, Bay-

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elsa, Edo and Delta and Kano and even in Lagos and Ekiti have shown patterns that are very suspect to say the least. We must leave that to the Election Tribunals to probe or investigate at the appropriate time... The Election has revealed that a cross section of the Nigerian Military and the Nigerian Police and State Security have been badly politicized and there is an urgent need for the incoming Federal Administration and Parliament to look into some of the allegations made against the Military I made this last point as the first recipient of the British/Canadian Legion Scholarship for children of the Second World War Veterans in Nigeria. I took advantage of that scholarship to obtain my first degree at the great University of Ife from 1963 to 1966. I hate to see the Nigerian military politicized. I served my first 3 years in the Federal Public Service as a senior Administrator in the Nigerian Army Headquarters at the Republican Building in Marina Lagos. I served briefly under Alhaji Damcida and for close to 2 years under Yusuf Gobir as Permanent Secretary. I served as Secretary to the Recruitment Panel for commissioned officers in the Nigerian Army under late Colonel Murtala Mohammed years before he became Head

of State in 1975. That was how I came to know all of the top brass in the Nigerian Military at the time including Mohammadu Buhari who was a Captain in the Nigerian Army at the time. He has been an incorruptible officer from that point in his career. That was why I would take a bullet for that man because I knew all the nasty things being said about him by a loose Cannon like Ayo Fayose and Fani Kayode were all rubbish. Nigerians could not be luckier to have Buhari back in Government to straighten out the country. I would personally work for the man free of charge because I knew him and I trusted him more than most of his peers in the Nigerian Military. I hope he would prevail on the APC senators who are now in the majority to reduce the prohibitive salaries the Legislators now award to themselves. That would be the beginning of real change in Nigeria. I am urging the General to reorganize the Nigerian Military and to bring back Captain Sagir Koli, and commend Brigadier General Dikko and Brigadier General Adeyemi and to honor and promote all of them for being good officers and role models for other military men in Nigeria. I recommend that Brigadier Aliyu Momoh

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and officers like him who participated in the Ekiti rigging of elections must be investigated and relieved of their commissions and retired with ignominy, if found guilty just to teach others a lesson. Buhari and Osinbajo have a lot of work to do to sanitize the system. I congratulate them on their well- deserved victory and I rejoice with Nigerians who made a wise choice to settle for change and better Government. The simple part is making promises. The hard part is keeping those promises and giving Nigeria a new lease of life to start to enjoy the true dividends of Democracy. Buhari and Osinbajo are going to discover horrendous crimes the Jonathan Government has committed and some of the good things they have done. They must continue the good things and abrogate some of the corrupt practices of the Jonathan Government and their collaborators across Nigeria and around the world It is no longer a coincidence that Buhari is the 4 th President in the 4 th Republic elected President on the 4 th month of the year after contesting for the presidency 4 times. General Buhari and Osinbajo should ban the use of the acronym “Your Excellency” in Nigerian political lexicon. The British from

whom we leant the diplomatic nicety have long jettisoned the nomenclature because it is serving no useful purpose at all. No American politician or Governor or President is called or addressed as “Your Excellency” because none of them deserves to be addressed that way. Stay tuned for the part II I. I rest my case.

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Editorial Poem A tribute to President Jonathan They called you names, inept, bumbling, inelegant. They laid all their faults at your doorstep. Their corruption they attributed to you. Decades of their ineptitude and foolishness, they expected you to correct in a few short years. They do not know you, because when they look in their mirrors they see nothing. Not even who they are. But you are not made in their mold. They would have been happy if you had been like them. But you are different, humble, a gentleman, a true patriot. Let them have it. You have done for Nigeria what they were incapable of doing and would not have done. You made mistakes because you are only human. But you did your best To God you can leave the rest Go back home and as you go, hold up you head high, because you may very well be the only true hero Nigeria ever had. May the Good Lord bless you. Emmanuel

Letter to the editor

Why Army invaded Odi “Five policemen and four soldiers were killed by a group of Niger Delta militants when they tried to enter the town of Odi in Bayelsa State in order to effect their arrest. This happened in 1999. After the brutal killing of these security personnel, President Olusegun Obasanjo asked the then Governor of Bayelsa State, Governor Alamieyeseigha, to identify, locate, apprehend and hand over the perpetrators of that crime. The Governor said that he was unable to do so and President Obasanjo, as the Commanderin-Chief of the Nigerian Armed Forces, took the position that security personnel could not be killed with impunity under his watch without a strong and appropriate response from the Federal Government. Consequently he sent the military in, to uproot and kill the terrorists and to destroy their operational base which was the town of Odi. The operation was carried out with military precision and efficiency and it’s objectives were fully achieved. The terrorists were either killed and those that were not killed fled their operational base in Odi. They were uprooted, weakened, demoralised and

completely dispersed. That was the purpose of the whole exercise and that purpose was achieved. The truth is that the killing of security agents and soldiers with impunity by the Niger Delta militants virtually stopped after the operation in Odi and remained at a bare minimum right up until the time that President Obasanjo left power eight years later in 2007. I advise those that doubt this to go and check the records.The same thing was done in Zaki-Biam in Benue State in the Northcentral zone of Nigeria in 2001 after 19 soldiers were murdered in cold blood and then brutally beheaded by some terrorists from that area. Again after the Federal Government’s strong military response in Zaki Biam, the killing of security personnel with impunity stopped. The objectives of the military operations in both Odi and Zaki-Biam were to stop such killings, to eliminate and deal a fatal blow to those that perpetrated them and to discourage those that may seek to carry out such barbarous butchery and mindless violence in the future.Those were the objectives and nothing more and clearly those objectives were

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achieved. There is no doubt that after Odi, there were still unrest, agitations, protests, kidnappings and the blowing up and sabotage of oil pipelines in the Niger Delta area but there were hardly any more attacks on or killing of soldiers and security personnel by the terrorists and militants because they knew that to do that would attract a swift and forceful reaction and terrible retribution from the Nigerian military.”.........OBJ’s Spokesman.

barricaded the roads and refused entry to authorities. Otitigbe can you do that in Argentina and not get killed? Stop exposing your ignorance. Nigerians all over, supported OBJ when he ordered the army to move in. It was unfortunate, but they deserved it. Shikena

No one likes what happened at Odi. The Odi incident was quiet u tunate, however they deserved it. When Clinton was President, he ordered “Force” be used at Waco in Texas. Unfortunately many people died in Waco, but itiswatitis! You don’t confront the government with guns or any lethal weapon. If you engage the police or army, you die. Shikena. Chief Otitigbe, may I remind you that the criminals at Odi were ordered to release the corpses of soldiers they killed, and for a constituted authority to step into the town for fact finding purposes. May I remind you that the Odi Crazies refused to let soldiers or police come isn’t the town. May I remind you these Odi folks

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APC snatches Senate majority, ends PDP’s 16-year rule

Results of Saturday’s elections also show that the APC has won the majority in the House, this time, After 16 years of In the North East, not through defecBut the two big majority power in wins are a far cry the PDP won all tions. Nigeria’s two hous- from the party’s in Taraba and With the APC’s win, es of parliament, bleak national per- snatched a seat in the biggest politithe Peoples Demo- formance in the Yobe. The APC took cal casualty in the cratic Party, PDP, the remaining 13. Senate would be Senate. has finally lost the Elsewhere – North In the North David Mark, who Senate to the now Central, North Central, the PDP has spent eight ruling party-elect, West, North East took Plateau, and years as president the All Progressives and South West picked one seat of the Senate. Congress, APC. – the APC, whose each from Benue After the National The APC secured presidential candi- and Nasarawa Assembly’s inaugu60 seats out of date, Muhammadu States. ration in June, Mr. 109, based on re- Buhari, won Tues- The spread gives Mark’s best bet will sults released by day, took a sweep- the APC the major- be the Minority the Independent ing lead. ity power with at Leader post. National Electoral In the South West, least 60 seats, the The APC, on the Commission. first time the PDP other hand, will the APC won 13 At Saturday’s Na- out of 18 seats. The has been edged produce the Presitional Assembly out of federal leg- dent of the Senate, party lost Ekiti’s elections, the PDP three seats to the islative leadership Deputy President, swept through the PDP, and lost one since the end of Majority Leader South East, takmilitary rule in seat apiece in and Chief Whip. ing all 15 senato- Ondo and Ogun 1999. Notwithstanding rial seats, and all The closest the States. its lead, the APC but two of South In the North West, PDP came to los- currently lacks a South’s 18 seats. the PDP managed ing its majority two-third majorIf the PDP wins the to secure a single lead, was after a ity (73), needed for Edo State’s South seat in Kaduna, series of defeckey decisions. The Senatorial district, leaving the APC tions to the APC party will count which is yet unde- with the outstand- in the House of on the PDP as it cided, the party ing 20, the biggest Representatives, stands will take 17 seats in regional win for between 2014 and the South South. the party. 2015.

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Editorial ALL HAIL PRESIDENT GOODLUCK JONATHAN AND NIGERIA

The recently concluded March 28 presidential election in Africa’s most populous country has come and gone but indelible marks have been left on the sands of time. It was a political tsunami and the first time Nigeria witnessed such. The incumbent president lost to the opposition leader, and in the most dramatic manner, the earlier threw in the towel before the end of the collation of result, despite having the machinery to overturn his impending fall as it use to be. Actually, President Goodluck Jonathan surprised the world and those who have all the bad words for African politics especially Nigeria ate it. What good can come out of Nigeria? Well the answer is that Nigeria is living up to its bragging right as the authentic African leader, and it just started with the sustenance of its democracy. President Jonathan Goodluck even surprised his opponents and millions of Nigerians, thereby etching his illustrious name on the sands of time. Nigerians have hailed him as the true winner and hero of their democracy. Nigerians have also showed their sophistication in democratic ideology by routing for a change at this time in their history. So, finally, something good can come out of Nigeria for the world to learn. Africa is proud of Nigerians and the continental giant for this onerous leap to democratic glory. All hail Nigeria and mother Africa! Come in. Uka

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Why Jonathan Was Defeated – Babangida Former military president, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, on Tuesday said President Goodluck Jonathan lost the presidential election to Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress, APC, because Jonathan failed to meet the yearnings and aaspiration of Nigeria’s citizens. In a congratulatory message titled: “Buhari deserves this victory” and which he personally signed, Babangida said the country had witnessed a downward trend and wanted a leader who would salvage it. He said Nigerian politicians had a lot of lessons to learn from the election and Buhari’s victory saying one of this was that an incumbent could be defeated if he did not do well as President. Apart from this, he said there was a lesson to learn from Buhari’s perseverance after he had lost three previous elections. “I have just finished watching the proceedings of the declaration of results of the March 28, 2015 elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission and the emergence of my friend, professional colleague and former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari as the President-elect. “Let me, therefore, formally congratu-

General Ibrahim Babangida late General Muhammadu Buhari and the All Progressives’ Congress for this well-deserved victory. “This victory to me conveys two significant statements on our political history and evolution. First; that incumbents can be defeated in any democratic process if the people’s aspirations are not fulfilled. Second, that there is good reward for perseverance and hard work. General Buhari has been very consistent in pursuing his political aspiration. In fact, he reminds me of President Abraham Lincoln of the American fame, who was very dogged in pursuing his political aspiration and enriched the contents of democracy in America. General Buhari lives true to his military

calling by remaining very consistent, resilient and courageous right from 2003 till date. This enviable feat to me further enriches our democratic process and matures us into the top echelon of nations where democracy has taken firm root. That President Jonathan has indeed conceded defeat and congratulated the President-elect is also cheering news. “Let me also congratulate other presidential candidates of the other political parties, especially Mr. President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan for putting up a good fight in the elections. I wish to also commend the Independent National Electoral Commission, for conducting such a free, fair and transparent elec-

tion despite all the initial hitches and challenges. The beauty of democracy is that it is an on-going process that gives room for improvement, provides opportunity to make amends, and affords the people the opportunity to make a statement with their ballots during elections. “With this election and its outcome thus far, Nigeria has once again recorded another milestone in her march through the enviable ladder of democracy. Our leadership role in Africa will further be enhanced by the way and manner we manage the gains of this process. But I trust that the Presidentelect will live up to the expectations of many Nigerians that crave for change; and lift Nigeria to greater

heights. I wish to implore the President-elect to reach out to other contestants in the spirit of one Nigeria, as he settles down for the task of leading this nation in the next four years. Your victory has no doubt broken the barriers of ethnicity and religious inclinations; two sensitive issues that undeservedly dominated the campaigns. I am confident that this victory will usher in a new perspective in our political history and development. “On behalf of my family, accept from me, our hearty congratulations,” the statement read.

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Oro p’esi je! Gani Adams praises Buhari Gani Adams praises Buhari ... Says he’s Nigeria’s Abraham Lincoln By Dimeji KayodeAdedeji The Oodua Peoples Congress on Wednesday sent a congratulatory message to President-elect, Muhammadu Buhari, over his election victory. The National Coordinator of the Congress, Gani Adams, in the congratulatory message made available to PREMIUM TIMES said the success of Mr. Buhari at the election across the country proved he is the choice of the people. Mr. Adams commended him for his resilience and tenacity over the years. “I wish to send my congratulations to the Presidentelect, General Muhammadu Buhari, on his success in the recently-concluded presidential election. By his resounding success in the election across the country, General Buhari has proved that he is the choice of the people,” Mr. Adams stated. “I commend his resilience and tenacity over the years which have seen him equal the record of great leaders like Abraham Lincoln of the USA. His victory is a lesson to all of us that we can be what

luck Jonathan for creating a levelplaying ground for all the parties that contested the election and the high spirit of “His speeches besportsmanship he fore, during and displayed when he after the election called to congratuare also commend- “It is time for all able because they Nigerians, irrespec- late the presidentelect even before went a long way in tive of political affiliation, to come all the results were dousing the tenreleased. sion in the country. together to continue to build our “By his action, This actually shows nation in a positive way, which of President Jonathan that the ‘Peoples course, should be has truly lived up General’ as he is to his statement fondly called is in- the focus of the that his ambition is deed a statesman’. president-elect not worth the life himself and evThe Congress lead- ery other political of any Nigerian. This is an exemplaleader across the er called on Mr. ry feat, which any Buhari to begin to various politiother presidents see himself as the cal parties in the coming after him president-elect of country”, Mr. Admust not fall short ams said. all Nigerians and of achieving. not just that of the “And for all of us, All Progressives it is a new dawn in “And to all NigeriCongress. ans, who by their the annals of the “However, having country for an op- participation in the election also won the election, position party to deserve kudos as win in a popular I want the presithey defied the election. dent-elect to begin weather, distance to see himself as and other hurdles Mr. Adams also the president-elect to cast their votes. of all Nigerians and congratulated Their actions have President Goodnot just that of the we want to be if we are patient and persistent in our legitimate pursuits in life”.

All Progressives Congress (APC). For him, it is time to mend whatever differences that may have arisen as a result of the election.

revealed that democracy in the country has come to stay”. “I urge them not to rest on their oars as their consistency in holding leaders accountable to their promises will go a long way in bringing out the best from the public office holders. Mr. Adams was among notable personalities in the South-West opposed to Mr. Buhari’s election. Shortly before the election, he organised a pro-Jonathan rally in Lagos which turned violent. He promised to deliver six million votes to Mr. Jonathan, but he was unable to do so.

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Free train ride from Lagos to Osun

The Osun State government has announced free train ride for the Easter celebration. A statement by the Ministry of Commerce, Cooperative, Industry and Empowerment yesterday said the free train ride would convey people coming for the Easter festival from Lagos to Osogbo on Friday by 11am. A return train will depart Osogbo for Lagos on Monday by 11 am.

The statement reads: “This tradition of free train ride as introduced by the Rauf Aregbesola administration is aimed at facilitating the easy movement of the citizenry wherever they are. “And this programme takes care of both Islamic and Christian festivities. Since its commencement, we can say confidently it has been a boost to the economy of the state. “Therefore, it is the wish of government that our people from Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states would seize this window of opportunity by Aregbesola’s government to visit home and celebrate with their relatives.”

abiodun KOMOLAFE, AMNIM, 020, Okenisa Street, PO Box 153, Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State.

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News

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Kinahan Mob Kill Enforcer Paul Kavanagh Murdered By His Own Gang in Cash Row Ireland’s latest gangland victim was murdered by his own mob - the Christy Kinahan crime gang - because he was stealing cash from them.

where they might well have killed him. Instead, he explained that he had been paying back the money and had been handing envelopes of cash to Paul Kavanagh for the preThe Herald can vious number of reveal that Paul months. The gang Kavanagh (27) was did not believe shot dead because him but then he he was pocketproduced a mobile ing money he was phone and showed collecting from a text messages notorious Drimwhich proved he nagh drug dealer had been giving who was gradually cash to Kavanagh.” repaying a debt of over €1m to the The Herald can Kinahan mob. also reveal today Kavanagh was that Paul was a killed in a ruthless brother of Gerard attack as he sat in a ‘Hatchet’ KavanaVolkswagen Passat gh, who was muron Church Avenue dered by the same in Drumcondra at mob last Septemaround 11.30am ber. It was previlast Thursday. Two ously believed that hitmen carried out he was a nephew. a detailed surveillance operation Paul carried the before ramming coffin of his brothhis car and riddling er ‘Hatchet’ who him with bullets. was shot dead in Spain’s Costa-DelLast night, it Crime for doing emerged that Paul the same thing his Kavanagh’s fate younger brother was sealed after was - stealing the Drimnagh money from his drugs trafficker own gang. This was summoned is the same gang to a meeting with that murdered senior members of gangland boss the Kinahan mob. Eamon ‘The Don’ Dunne. “The Drimnagh dealer owes well The Drimnagh over €1m to the trafficker who has cartel and he has been trying to been paying back pay back the Kinasums of €10,000 han mob, was the or €20,000 on a Criminal Assets monthly basis,” a Bureau’s number source explained. one target for a number of years “The problem is and was previthat they were not ously described by getting this cash. a judge as having The dealer was extensive links to called to a meeting the “upper levels of

crime” after a court ruled that the State could seize his home. Sources believe that a Cabra gang was involved in the theft of the car used in the murder of Kavanagh last week and that the shooting was carried out by a brutal hitman who has close links to Christy Kinahan henchman Gary Hutch. At the weekend, the Herald revealed that the Audi Sportback was taken from a garden in the Palmerstown area of Dublin in the early hours of March 11.

He was one of around a dozen criminals arrested for that unsolved slaying but was released without charge. “Like the Dunne murder, this was a Kinahan gang enterprise from start to finish. A lot of the same crew were involved in this one from start to finish,” a source said. Stupid

“Like that killing, it shows that the Kinahan crew are not to be messed with and Paul Kavanagh was very, very stupid to think he could take cash from them, especially after his brother was killed Sources say that for the exact same the “clinical” hit was “overseen” by reason.” a north inner city Dad-of-two Kavanagh was sushood who was at pected of being the centre of the gangland murder involved in importing cocaine and of his former aswas a very close sociate Eamon ‘The Don’ Dunne in associate of notorious heroin trafApril 2010.

ficker Greg Lynch and feared criminal Paul Rice, and was understood to have been involved in a number of feuds in the city. Sources say that gardai are now satisfied that the murder is not linked to the murder of rival criminal ‘Mad Mickey’ Devoy who was killed in January of last year in Tallaght. Originally published by Herald Ireland Credit: kfoy@herald.ie

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THE NEW VISION FOR IGBO POLITICS EZE FESTUS ODIMEGWU BY EZE FESTUS ODIMEGWU, CON All credible independent polls predict a Buhari victory. Some with more winning margins than others, but all gave APC victory in four of our six zones with major inroads in the other two zones. This is expected given the demographics of our polity, the incompetence and profligate corrupt culture of the PDP-led Jonathan administration that has generated an overwhelming desire for change in Nigeria. So nothing has changed since the contrived six weeks postponement of the 14th February elections. March 28th, the liberation day for Nigerians, the date for all to stand up and march for Buhari, is only hours away and is being awaited with hope, voting zeal and fearless determination of Nigerians to reclaim Nigeria and determine their fate. PDP-led re-election team for the Jonathan Presidency has continued to take Nigerians for granted as in dicated by the following: Non-existent emergency transfor mation claims are being made. As a seasoned technocrat and professional man-

the security of Nigerians and our territorial integ rity be politicised. Is nothing scared any more. Why should a national institution like our Military be de ployed as pawns on the chess board of politics, insulting all retired Gen erals in addition and engaging the Military to levels that raise concerns about coups or election rigging. If the Jonathan administration now play games with the sacred role of our C-in-C, they should first tell Nigerians who to hold responsible for thousands of Nigerians killed, millions displaced and violated and the kidnapped and desecrated innocent Chibok Virgin Angels that are still not returned home!!! It is grossly irresponsible to subject the security of Nigerians and the fight against insurgency to mere politics of desperate looting cabals. The Jonathan administration and its delinquent reelection campaign organisation are busy deploying hate campaign documentaries and unheard of before divisive commercials, all in an attempt to win re-election. How can a party win by destroying? If APC The fight against leaders are corrupt Boko Haram is as charged but not orchestrated for re-election propa prosecuted since ganda. Why should till this election ager, it is clear to me that there is no evidence anywhere of a dramatic quantum leap in the living standard of Nigerians. The economy now lie prostrate with unaccounted N30 trillion and missing $20 billion. The national currency is massively devalued like our national image and reputation, FDIs have completely dried up, capital market in continued decline and Nigerians severely divided along primordi al lines by the rampaging ruling clique. Unemployment continues to increase amidst massive infra structural deficits that discourage investments and make the situation even more hopeless. The economy is certainly not serving the interests of majority of Nigerians and need change for inclusiveness, to go from consumption to production, from rent-seeking to value addition, from mono-product to diversified knowledge based economy and from guessworkbased pretended coordination to data-based development strategy, plans and professional management.

period, is it not evidence of incompetence and con doning corruption of the Jonathan administration as generally known. If APC that is not at the Federal level steal that much, what about the rampaging PDP looting machine? Nigerians are not fools. That is why they need change, to bring to governance, the incorruptible General Buhari and the farsighted owl-eyed political strategist, the Jagaban of Nigeria, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. At times like this, it is important to call a spade a spade, to tell the truth and shame the devil. The PDP-led Jonathan government are going round making unintelligent promises they cannot keep while heavily throwing dollars to the South West monarchs, mili tant groups everywhere and expos ing the revered office of Nigerian Presidency to be pointed at with the walking sticks of some local small chiefs. The picture was an eye sour. Has desperation no limit. Should Nigerians be ruled by force? Where is decency? It is very clear to the discerning that a Nigerian President from a tiny minority group cannot implement the recommendations of the National conference that

needs a broad national consensus among the major ethnic nationalities in Nigeria to even contemplate. To promise execution otherwise is a brainless joke. CBN regulatory agency should hold the Presidency responsible for dollarizing the economy. And the military should start their clamp down on trouble makers from the Presidency that has funded and primed the ethnic militias. Even government is not above the law. Enough of the nonsense impunity. For the past five years and even within the injury political time of desperation for re-election votes the President Goodluck Jonathan administration continues to treat the Igbo with utter contempt and ignominy. Pray tell me why this administration has not done anything for Ndigbo for their massive support? Absolutely nothing. The peak of this evil treatment is the refusal by Presi dent Goodluck Jonathan to allow the deployment of the over $500m private investment by Geometric Elec tricity Company of the renowned Professor Barth Nnaji, the designer of the Power Road map in Nigeria to energize Aba, the industrial city of Ndigbo. Why is President Jona than incompetent to the level that he cannot concede

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Aba to completed Geometric power project and give Enugu Disco to the Emeka Offor Consortium. Is it a brainer to resolve this contrived impasse, to subject southeast to perpetual darkness, than to bring these two prominent Igbo sons and their companies to agreement in the overall interest of industrialisation in the South East and acclaimed Ndigbo enterprising spir it? What has the Jonathan adminis tration done for the Igbo Nation to warrant further support? Nothing. The Southeast has the least federal government projects out of the six zones in Nigeria. The statistics are there. No true Igbo person will vote for Jonathan in 2015. Any one who does is not Igbo bu Igbo. Ndigbo come in grades: there are outcasts who do not represent real Igbo values and principles and they are the nwafos, the never ruled!. Every Igbo will classify himself or herself. A word is enough for the Igbo. The PDP campaign wants Nigerians to believe that Gener al Buhari is not a good man based on his religion. This is dangerous. Our Lord Jesus Christ said that it is not those that call my Father that will enter the Kingdom of God but those that do the will of God. It is by their fruits that we shall know them! General Buhari is more Christian than

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all the thieving people who call themselves Christians (or Muslems)! No one can follow God in any religion and be committing evil the way these people do. They use the name of God in vain. Steal in the name of God. And the judgement against them will be in the deepest and hottest part of hell. A good Christian, like a good Muslem must have the honesty, integrity and the moral uprightness of General Buhari. All good Christians must vote for him based on his ethical records, personal example and incorruptible integrity. Nigeria is lucky to have the type of Buhari good people, unaffected by primitive acquisition by all means possible. Finally, during the contrived six weeks delay, the PDP-led Jonathan government has continued to ruin the image of Nigeria in the comity of nations. Niger, Chad and Camer oun are now the guarantors of our national sovereignty, defeating boko haram on Nigeria soil for us. The international community prefers to deal with these smaller nations than touch Nigeria with a long pole. Any sensible person will then be wondering if we are still talking about the giant of Africa, the real Nigeria? Yes, we are. And that shows that leadership is everything and

that PDP has lost it and still do not get it despite all the propaganda and throwing of money at everything. Some Nigerians cannot be bought. Nigeria has many Buhari, many Tinubu, many Awujale and many Eze Odimegwu. Certain people cannot just be bought. They know who they are and where they are coming from and what is honourable. Men who fear no hu mans convinced of God’s injunction that only the truth sets us free. In summary therefore, the re-elec tion of President Goodluck Jonathan is an impossible sale as far as honest Nigerians, that wish Nigeria well, are concerned. The administration is a total failure and there is no basis to even begin to think of re-electing the President nor his PDP that has taken Nigerians for granted for a long time now. His eminence, John Cardinal Onaiyekan recently stated that peo ple are generally disenchanted with the state of affairs in Nigeria today. He is not partisan, like me and he should know. His eminence, Olubunmi Cardinal Okogie has said that President Jonathan does not merit re-election. Father Ejike Mba ka has delivered the revelation of the Holy Spirit that President Jonathan should be voted out. As a catholic,

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these are my spiritual leaders and I completely agree with them. The Catholic church has established the culture of the church guiding its parishioners to vote for candidates of good moral uprightness that enables the realisation of the seven themes of the Catholic social teaching that en hances the human dignity, promote the family, protect human rights through good governance, work for common good of the ordinary people, ensure the right to work and the right of workers, achieve solidarity with the poor, vulnerable and the common people as a protection of God’s creation: human, physical and the environment. All Christians abide by these teachings as they all were fathered by the Holy Catholic Church and to that extent only Gen eral Buhari is qualified to be voted for by true followers of Christ. By their fruits, we will truly know them: General Buhari is honest. PDP government is corrupt and indifferent to the problems of Nigerians. One is of God. The other is not. The difference is clear and the choice simple. All to vote for change.

campaigns and fa natical attempts to blackmail its lead ers. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has shown exemplary courage and determination in providing total support to the APC best-in-class primary-election elected candidate, despite vicious, belated and reelection-driven allegations and even childish threats of arrest. General Buhari continues to carry himself Presidentially, confident that change is required. He therefore remains focused and has clearly articulated his convenant with the Nigerian people. Above all, he has rightly declined to be drawn into unnecessary debates, or any unstatemanly acts. It is clear to all that he is a man of principles and incorruptible integrity.

INEC has done very well to insist on its Chairman, PVC and ECR usages in pursuit of a credible, free and fair elections, as the only recipe to avoid violence and to secure postelection peaceful atmosphere for meaningful development. Let the self-appointed leaders of Nigeria not mess with this. It is possible for heavens to fall, like it has in some Arab nations and other countries in history. NigeriThe opposition ans should not be APC and its flag taken for granted bearer, on the further. The atmoother hand, have continued to show sphere is charged restraint in the face even if latent. of provocative hate There is need to

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take good counsel and the bulk stops with President Jonathan. The purpose of this intervention is to evaluate the three emerging political scenarios, given the strategic imperatives that are being stacked up and to shine light on them for the benefit of Nigerians. Will also outline a new vision for Igbo Politics; why Ndigbo should vote for General Buhari and why Nigeria needs Ndigbo, if it must develop, starting from the Buhari Presidency. The Pessimistic Scenario, The Chaos or Anarchy scenario, envisions a desperation-base suicidal mission by the ruling PDP, in the hope that the heavens will not fall! This scenario, with election scuttling or abortion at any point favourable to the PDP-led Jonathan administration can be precipitated with last minute replacement of Jega with a rogue INEC chairman or induced violence with compromised ethnic militias, labour leaders and a readily available array of uneducated and jobless youths. Mayhem will then be unleashed on the Nigerian people with the partisan IG of police and his men protecting the miscreants. Retired army men, who may have written the scripts, may then guide their surrogates in

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government, participants already in delaying the election process, to intervene and take power in the ‘interest’ of the unity of Nigeria and then form an interim or the so-called unity government. The whole reason for this contraption is the mortal fear of General Buhari, driven by already expressed fears of going to prison and review of past evil deeds of many. These conspiring rouges are united in their evil desire to stop the envisaged Buhari landslide and mandate. This pessimistic scenario can play out before, during or immediately after the elections, if exit polls support a Buhari victory and effective incapacitation of rigging plans. The good news is that the response to this evil, if it rears its ugly head, will never be under the control of the planners despite the strategic architecture being put in place to support it. Their nemesis is the fact that the desire for change, for General Buhari and APC is deep and is a mass movement beyond party affiliations. This plot, if effected, could lend itself to inadvertently fulfil the prophecy of Nigeria’s disintegration in 2015. Or balkanisation into war zones under various war lords and ethnic militias. The scenario is real, given emerging tendencies and primodial horizon of the players.

What is required to avoid it is to drop all thoughts and plans for this and let the will of the people prevail. The Jonathan administration should not destroy the only claim they may have as a legacy, of leaving behind, an improved electoral process. Character is determined in the furnace of real challenges and not in comfort zones! The Realistic or Status quo Scenario, The Stealing Continuity scenario, envisions PDP using its incumbency to retain power by all means possible. It can unleash the huge resources and assets at its disposal, covering the executive and legislative arms, at Federal and State levels with illegally appropriated LGA funds also and their ubiquitous rigging machinery for re-election of its candidates, partic ularly the President at all cost. They can do this with continued shameless impunity and then ask APC to go to court if not happy. That sce nario can play out from many fronts: pre-election, PDP is throwing money to buy support, corrupt the system and intimidate opposition. Attempts at Jega, PVC and ECR are in these realm. The recent order by the IG of police that people should vote and go home belong here. Insistence on using and corrupting the mili-

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tary and the 14th February election postponement before all belong here. Rumours of using technology to jam the SCR to create room to vote without the use of the SCR but with incident or default form usage is the greatest rigging threat that must be watched closely. This Professor Maurice Iwu electronic voting and anti-rigging innovation is being implemented wrongly by allowing the use of incident or default forms in place of SCRs only!!! APC should work hard to counter all these and has done well in directing their supporters to vote and stay behind to protect their votes. This is not the time to listen to a partisan IG of po lice. Professor Jega looks like a good man from a distance but he is not street-smart, like most university professors and given his past records, like announcing the South East and South South election results in 2011, that gave 99% turn out in some states, instead of cancelling the results for rerun. Like his buying the contrived dummy of postponing the 14th February elections. And due to this, Jega may just sit in the office in Abuja and announce useless results sent in by corrupted field RECs as Don ald Duke educated Nigerians a long time ago. So APC should send op-

erational experts to assist Jega set up a control room that will get independent results from all polling booths, LGA and States nationwide with which to crosscheck what his RECs report back. APC should also have an effective system to independently monitor the elections and mark the RECs bumper to bumper. The percentage of voting with incident forms without the SCRs should be tracked and controlled as this is the last chance for rigging by PDP given the assets as its disposal. Cases of jammed SCRs should also be tracked and controlled. Experts must be on stand bye to scrabble the jammers and make them in-effective. Given the missing $20bn and mismanaged N30 trillion, the amount of war chest, that is available to PDP for mischief, is horrendous and APC should in addition, screen their own party agents to all polling booths, collection centers etc carefully. They must be like Ceasar’s wife: above board, trusted and with a supervisory, control and ongoing operational audit teams in place. Being a mass movement, APC should not have a problem doing this, with clear instructions to their agents to collect the money given, as it is our

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money, and to still do the right things and file the right reports. At the level of Nigerians, all should stand up to be counted as the future of the country depends on this election. Then during the election proper, if it holds, the plans should be faithfully implemented, supervised and controlled towards planned objectives of credible, free and fair election to be realised. APC should have other plans to re spond to election violation or scuttling beyond the courts, ICC and security council. Blind impunity can never be cured by legal means only. No one dialogues with the deaf, dumb and blind and hope for good operational results. The law of Moses most times work better in Nigeria. Enough must be enough and APC and its Presidential candidate must refuse to be blackmailed or intimidated. A man must live fully till dead and death should be only once and not people dying everyday from unjust fear. Life of service is worth living and dying for and a clear message, of go to hell, for all that want to ruin Nigeria, will be appropriate. The Optimistic Scenario, The Overwhelming Desired Change Scenario, is envisioned to usher in the Golden Era of nation building! An era of zero tol-

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erance for corruption and safe cities and villages with prosperity for all. This scenario only needs the execution of a credible, free and fair election that allows the will of the people to prevail. That effects one man one vote counts desire. This will surely put General Buhari in office to start the work of building Nigeria into a great nation. To change Nigeria from consumption to production, from looting rogues to patriotic elites, from uncoordinated economy to big ideas databased digital econ omy and from an unjust society to an egalitarian society built on truth, justice, equity and fairness, on rule of Law with a peoplebased constitution. Responsible politics of service will then be enthroned for service to Nigeria and all Nigerians. This intervention also seeks to propose a new vision for Igbo politics and politics in Nigeria generally. It is sanitising and elevating to engage in thought experiments at times particularly within historical context for issues involved here. How would Nigeria and Nigerians have being if Britain conducted an accurate census and election in Nigeria and handed over to Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe as Prime Minister? Zik was arguably the most educated and nationalist of

the founding fathers. What would Nigeria have become if there were no coups in 1966 and if Britain played a better role of avoiding the Nigeria-Biafra war and if the Aburi Accord was respected? What would have being the welfare standards in Nigeria today if the Obasanjo military administration handed over to Chief Obafemi Awolowo as President? Awo was a good and disciplined manager of men and resources. How would Nigeria have being if the Shagari Adminis tration was not disrupted and Shagari handed over to Dr. Alex Ekwueme in 1987? Ekwueme is learned and competent. What type of Nigeria would be in place now if the Babangida military junta handed over to Abiola? Abiola was people-oriented and would have been a compassionate president. What type of Nigeria would we have today if the Obasanjo civilian administration handed over to Alhaji Shehu Musa Yaradua with Dr. Peter Odili as Vice President and President today? These are legitimate questions. Decision points were Nigeria seemed to have selected the wrong option. Britain and all the actors that diverted the course of history from a better course to the mess we have

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today should resolve to help Nigeria heal and start making progress than mostly remain bent on destroying Nigeria. It is in the light of this that I always welcome any state of the nation comments and strong views on Nigeria from OBJ. Silence is connivance and is not golden. Other former leaders must speak up. The problems are too big for behind the scene whispers. And certainly not prayers alone as these rogues are not of God, and are not willing to do God’s will. Nigerians should resist any one or group that still want to impose evil outcomes on Nigeria that is only good for their selfish interests. A life without struggle is bound to be lived unfulfilled and in slavery. Nigerians must rise up to liberate themselves from evil con men that parade our nations as leaders. And a review of the diversions from noble historical courses seem to have a key issue, one key issue, still unaddressed till today, as the cross that has kept Nigeria down. A fundamental issue that will not allow Nigeria to realize its greatness unless addressed and that key issue is the Fear of the Igbo in Nigeria and the official unwritten state policy to exclude Ndigbo from Nigeria’s Political Leadership. Nigeria will go no where

and will continue to falter until put on a just and competitive pedes trian for all without discrimination (against the Igbo). This obnoxious policy was instituted by the British and sustained under their guidance by the Caliphate and there is need for a new vision of politics now to go beyond it for the greater glory of Nigeria and all Nigerians. Why can Nigeria not develop until the Igbo are fully integrated into Nigeria on equal footing with other ethnic nationalities? Why has Nigeria always turned in a fraudulent census data after each charade? The answer is simple: because the Igbo are the major ethnic nationality in Nigeria. If we take the current fraudulent census figure of Nigeria that is quoted without basis as 170 million people and correct it downwards to 153 million for areas of census data inflation, the Igbo will be about 50 million of this population! Yes, about 33% of the Na tional population will be Ndigbo as in the five states of current South East, the about 15% av erage in the other seven adjoining states where the Igbo were deliberately cut off to and motivated to even say that they are not Igbo (while the Fulani that sustains this, grafted their minority self to Hausa, to generate

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a significant population of the mixed ethnic nationalities of Hausa-Fulani) and about 10% average in all other regions of Nigeria (and the reason successive federal governments have refused to include state of origin and religion in census questionnaires). If any one says that this is not true, let us then execute an accurate and reliable biometric census in Nigeria. It is over-due and Nigeria cannot develop without accurate data. But the key question also is, how can Nigeria marginalise its majority ethnic nationality and hope to develop? Who can develop Nigeria without 33% of its population? And develop it for who? No country can develop without engaging the creative energies of 33% of its people particularly when these are their first eleven ethnic nationality! Any one again who argues with this should look at our history and national statistics. Who are the Igbo, Ndigbo? Who are these people called Ndi Gbo (People of Ancient of Days!). C U Acholonu established through extensive study of Igbo mythology and oral folklore traditions backed by linguistic and ancient stone & cave symbols that Ndigbo are Ndi Gbo, the original seed people of ancient of days,

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Nze na Ozo. These authentic ancient leaders of the Igbo were god-men who observed the unwritten divine laws of impeccability (Ofo na Ogu) encapsulating ethical rules that are strictly observed or violated with severe consequencies (Ezi Okwu daa ala, egwuputaghi ya, ala agaghi adi mma – until the truth that is buried is resurrected, the world will know no peace!). These just leaders can invoke the forces of Mother Nature with the sacred staff of authority, Ofo, that only responds if truth and justice is observed. These leaders were righteous, forthright and bold, practicing Ogu bu ike (right is might), Ome ihe jide ofo (do only just things) and idi nso, iji ogo (personal holiness ethics). This is the cultural background of Ndigbo and not the container mercantile idea that are propagated by Igbo detractors. It is this cultural background that The Igbo already makes the Igbo the had very civilised least corrupt and culture before irresponsible of all contact with the the ethnic nationoutside world alities in Nigeria. with a very com This is what gives prehensive world them their spiritual view, belief sys strength. If the tem and governew religions, like nance framework The Igbo believe in themselves, na Christianity, adoptthat maintained ed the Igbo culture onye kwe chi ya good conducts, fully and just addpeace and societal ekwe (the man is ed and subtracted the maker of his progress based aspects here and fate and environ on truth, justice, ment). Every Onye there, both Chrisequity and fairness. The revered Igbo is a king and tianity and Islam queen and gover- would have been Chinua Achebe better for it. Chriscelebrated this in nance is through tianity would have democracy of his seminal literphilosopher-kings, had a better and ary work, ‘Things effective influence fall apart’. The Igbo Ndi Ichie na Ndi the root race of all mankind. Archaeologist FN Anozie of the Nsukka school unearthed and dated traces of these root people, the autochthons that originated in the central area of the Okigwe – Orlu – Akwa axis, about 500,000 – 1,600,000 BC, as the direct descendants of Homo Erectus, the direct ancestors of Homo Sapiens. They have always being in their current location. They did not come from anywhere else. They are Ndi Gbo, Ndigbo, Igbo. And from here they spread across to other parts of Nigeria, Africa and later to Egypt, Greece and throughout the world as the original seed people of mankind. This has being validated by further archaeological and literary research and authenticated by DNA mitochondrial studies in the ‘out of Africa’ model as also celebrated by Okigbo in his poems.

are of high culture from ancient times. They believed in One God (Chukwu or Chi Ukwu: Alpha and Omega) that also has three persons in one God (Holy Trinity) with the transcendental God, the Creator in heaven (Chineke), The God in man, Christs as (Personal Chi of enlightened god-men, Ndi Nze na Uzo or Ndi Ichie – men of virtuous living and instru ments of God’s will on earth, in the body of Christ as Christianity may have it) and the immanent God in Nature, God in Infinite Universe, the Holy Spirit, represented in the Virgin Mother Earth Goddess, Ala and its powers translated through the ‘Ofo’. The celebration of the power of God, through Iji Ofo na Ogu, Truth and Justice, in all affairs of Ndigbo, through the rituals of Kolanut, Oji, the symbol of divine invocation and communion, uniting all children of Light under one love worked for an cient Igbo societies more than what is seen today, where people carry the Bible and Koran and still commit atrocities without consequences.

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on the conduct of its adherants and not have the current trend where people even steal in God’s name. How can Nigeria develop without leveraging Ndigbo with their deep cultural foundation and a culture that believes in hardwork, creativity and the divinity of humanity (onye kwe chi ya ekwe!). Men that can give expression to the spirit of God in them. Instruments of the Will of God. In God’s own image. Men with absolute faith and capacity therefrom. The modern Onye Igbo is honest, enterprising, forthright, adventurous and fearless. They are not afraid to take risks, are competitive and believe in themselves. Nigeria can only continue to marginalize them at its own peril. The Igbo too are the best Nigerians. They live in every corner and community in Nigeria. They invest heavily in the whole country. Have 90% literacy including Igbo men and women, boys and girls. Are captains in most sectors of human endeavours. Have more children in primary, secondary and tertiary institutions than any other ethnic nationality. Produce more graduates. Are great travellers all over the world, where they excel. Ndigbo are the blessing that Nigeria need to tap into

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if it is to progress. Nigeria should not be afraid that Buhari will stop stealing and turn Nigerian around from consumption to production. Nigeria needs that to clear the lo custs and create the environment for all prepared people of Nigeria to add value to Nigeria. Ndigbo will excel in this value adding environment for the benefit of all Nigerians. And to complement productive ventures, the proposed restructuring should implant a revenue allocation that matches internally generated revenue as 50% and school enrolment as 50%. Let the glorious era be the era of hardwork, productive work and no longer period of continued looting, greed and excessive consumption.

in Nigeria find accommodation, achieve convergence, ka egbe bere ugo bere!! The Igbo should seek a sustainable and permanent political alliance with the Yoruba and Hausa-Fulani other main ethnic nationalities to ensure permanent and sus tainable political stability, based on numbers and quantifiable interest in the progress and development of Nigeria, carrying along willing minority groups for a greater Nigeria and Nigerians that Igbo-Yoruba-Hausa/ Fulani already ensures. APC pro vides this unique historic opportuni ty. Ndigbo should vote for APC and its Presidential candidate, General Buhari to win the 2015 elections and massively join APC as a party. Gen eral Buhari has the So what should ethical behaviour the Igbo do about that is consistent their politics? What with Igbo ethiis the only route cal background. to the developMost Igbo are also ment of Nigeria? Catholics and it How can Ndigbo is consistent with and other ethCatholic tradition nic nationalities to ask Catholics to

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vote for virtuous candidates that can build an equitable society, as al ready mentioned. The papal nuncio, cardinals, bishops and also catholic priests in Nigeria, like the adorable Father Ejike Mbaka, should guide their parishioners to vote right. Given catholic ecumenical movement, Catholics should also vote against candidates that want to divide the country by hate religious campaigns. We are all God’s children. The Catholic Church must help guide the Igbo that their political misrepresentatives have sold out. The Igbo should repair this after the elections under the APC platform, as proposed. APC should learn from the undemocratic internal policies of PDP and ensure that they have a continued internal process that will continue to sieve out criminals and enthrone professionals for good governance at all levels. This is Tinubu’s greatest

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strength and gift to APC. APC and its Government at all levels should also ensure that Truth, Justice and Equity are the basis of our national life and enshrined in our constitu tion for sustainable unity, peace and progress. A party and government of the majority ethnic nationalities in Nigeria should also ensure greater common good, which ultimately is already composed by Igbo-Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani, with willing oth ers. It is the IgboYoruba and Hausa/ Fulani that will lose more if Nigeria is destroyed. It is therefore in their mutual interest, to stop the destructive rivalry between themselves and embrace a new Vision of Majority Rule of major stakeholders to abort the current reality of tail wagging the dog. This Rule of the Big 3, will continue the nationalistic legacy that the Great Zik of Africa left for Ndig bo and for Nigeria to have peace

for development. The Igbo, Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani should evolve a Vision of One for All and All for One to secure Nigeria and to start the urgent task of nation building that has being aborted since 1960 due to the false and suspicion-engineered foundations. The current leaders in Nigeria should know better, given experience with realities to date and as a sign of progress and acquired wisdom. The happenings under the Jonathan Presidency have shown the futility of acrimonious and divide and rule relations between the major ethnic nationalities of Igbo-Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani. Let APC be built into a Progressive Mega Party of the major ethnic nationalities in Nigeria with willing minority groups. Its government will be for the common good, already the majority nationalities with willing others and subsequently all Nigerians.

Outline of Greater Nigeria Strategic Architecture for Greater Nigerians (Common Good) Vision: Nigeria as a great power and first world. Mission: Realise in 20 years with a new people-based federal constitution under the Mega Progressive and Disciplined APC party. Objective: Welfare and security of Nigerians as the main matrice for development: millennium development goals-oriented. $20,000 per capita income (2035) iii. Emphasise Agriculture, Industrialisation and Service led productive ventures with relevant infra

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structure and priorities diversifying the economy from mono-product based multi-product knowledge based consumption to production. Strategy: – Drive with APC – a party anchored by Igbo-Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani Brotherhood with willing others for Stability, Social Justice, Progress and Sustainability. Governance Structure: – True federalism – In-built healthy regional autonomy and competitions. Systems: Put in place strong legal systems, leaderships and enhanced institutions: For zero tolerance of kidnapping and insurgency For zero tolerance of impunity and corruption iii. For massive job creation and productive management of the economy For constitutional restructuring and social justice For leveraging the creative energies of all Nigerians For enhanced brotherhood and unity of Igbo-Yoruba and Hausa-Fulani and all willing minority groups. vii. For evolving a modern state with cross-sectoral synergies People: – Brightest and the best to serve Nigeria and all Nigerians. – No federal character (under the applied concept of One for ALL and All for One). But first things first: Let all vote for APC, to start the sustainable political, economic and social reforms that Nigeria urgently needs. Our population must be made our greatest assets and not our liabilities as currently holding due to poor leadership vision and non-existent National Development plans therefrom. Motto: Truth, Justice, Equity for Unity, Peace and Progress. Pledge: Our fate are in our hands. May God bless our creativity and hardwork. NOTE: Since we do not want corruption to kill Nigeria, we must recover all stolen National Assets and institute Capital punishment against corruption. Uncivilised greed and impunity need total and final solutions. We should ignore all protests to this from persons and nations that benefit from our misery. Remember that the taker and the keeper are both equally guilty. We should cut off diplomatic relations with any nation that harbours corrupt Nigerian loots without returning them. Enough of rhetorics. Time for strategic clear-eyed actions and economic diplomacy. Serious issues need serious actions. Long live Igbo-Yoruba-Hausa/Fulani Brotherhood ! Long live all Nigerians !! Long live Nigeria, Our Only HomeLand !!! Eze Festus Odimegwu, CON, HRM OKAA Chairman FS Group, Former Chairman NPoC, Former MD/CEO Nigeria Breweries Plc.

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News

Biking for Diversity and Humanity Since the start of the new regional governments of Flanders & Wallonia and the Federal Government the motto of Green has been: It Can Be Different. (Het kan anders). This is because the doomsday picture that the ultra-conservative government continues to paint gives nobody any pleasure. And this is not about saying it as it is. Government builds hope, gives people confidence and makes them believe in themselves rather than sell them depressing and intimidating stories. Things aren’t as bad as they make it look. I believe firmly in the role of public service in giving people perspectives, allowing them some breathing space.

cause we are in it together. Above all, as municipal legislators, we are often the ones left The citizen move- locally to clean up ment ‘Hart boven the mess made in Hard’ was founded Brussels by these on exactly these disproportionate lines just after the austerity measures. summer of 2014 to draw attention This is why a Big to the plight of Parade is being the common man, organized in Bruswhich obviously sels on Sunday 29 the newly formed March 2015. It is regional and Fed- a parade with 10 eral Governments heart desires for would rather not more social and talk about. I know greener policies. this firsthand Ostend is giving as Councillor, of the parade a spewhich social policy, cial tint. We are the economy and setting off earlier, minority rights are on Wednesday 25 part of my portfo- March 2015 with lio. The individuals the bike, yes with who are affected the bike on a fourby these austerday 115 km jourity measures share ney to Brussels. the same public First stop is the transport with me, beautiful ancient buy from the same city of Bruges. We’d corner shop as arrive on bike at myself, are loyal cli- 2.30 pm and at 3 ents of the budget pm at the Grote shops, secondhand Markt I’m billed to shops… as myself. address the crowd We run into each on the topic of “Diother every day. versity is a Reality” I feel their pains If you can, please and sufferings be- join us because I

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do have a few interesting things to tell us about the fast changing demography of Belgium, of Europe, our changing world, our common humanity… The team Ostend will be joined by colleagues from Bruges and the crowd of bikers will thicken as more will join in Aalst, Gent and other towns and villages in-between until arrival in Brussels on Sunday the 29th.

admin@collinsnweke.eu for your soft copy or check back on our website later this week to download your copy. Your presence is important. We must send a strong signal to those cutting close to the bones of the poor that there are alternatives to the current inhuman measures. I hope to see you on Wednesday in Bruges and hopefully you can join the Big Parade in Brussels on Sunday.

Get your free badge #hetkananders at 1 pm at the Green Stand in front of the Brussels North station. Mayrem Almaci, the newly elected Green Party Leader will be there in person to receive you.

Best regards

Finally, if you can’t join us in Bruges to hear the speech and take your copy but are interested, email Keji Safe at

Collins NWEKE | Municipal Legislator Ostend City Council

66 I April 1 - 15 2015

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A Man I Met On Social Media Almost Made Me Lost My Life After He Drugged Me The role of the social media in building relationships and businesses cannot be overemphasised. But the negative aspects seem to be growing with mixed reactions after the death of Cynthia Osokogu who was killed by friends she met on social media. Since the case of Cynthia went viral, ladies who were before now ashamed to share their experiences in the hands of bad guys have started talking. Below is the neardeath experience a young lady had with a man who was her BBM friend: I am a girl who has fears, beliefs, reservations and just your regular typical Nigerian girl. This past few weeks has been one hell of a game for me. I have really been unsettled and I thought I share this story with you. When Cynthia (the lady killed in the hotel room in Festac, Lagos) surfaced on the internet and various news media, I was scared and it brought back a whole lot of memories to me and also served as an eye opener. Many people castigated and criticised Cynthia (may her gentle soul rest in peace), but my

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was a duplex made with wood. It was a very nice setting.

I felt comfortopened and we able because it him. We did not point is, it could got chatting. I also even had a fence have sex, but he have been anyrealized that maaround it separatbody, anybody at made sweet love to me and touched jority of them were ing it from other all. me in places I had married and work- beach houses ing in reputable around. So, there We have met peo- never ever imagfirms. It was fun was privacy and ined. ple through variand we didn’t mind of course bouncous social media. ers (heavy looking Some have ended He kissed me pas- if they were marup well, some have sionately but guess ried, we just want- guys) guarding the ed to have fun, as place. I said to mynot but with pain- what? He did not have sex with me. well as some other self, this must be ful memories. To heaven, I must be cut the long story We did all sorts but girls apart from dreaming. short, let me kindly there was no pen- my friends in the share with you my etration. So, to an group. Anyways, we felt extent, I trusted he encounter with was a good person We chatted exclu- free with each social media esto be around with. sively, sent photo- other because we pecially the very popular Blackberry I did not know that graphs to the BBM had been chatting. group to introduce It was 5:30pm and Messenger (BBM). it was all part of ourselves, and we the party just startthe plan. had opened group ed. We had drinks I am a graduate conversations flowing from the and currently serv- The following morning, he gave pending the beach private bar tender ing in Kaduna. I which is owned by could have dunced me N10,000 (€40) party. And as excited as we were, one of the men in and put me in a it, but I needed we went shopping the group. Realcab to take me somewhere to for nice sexy beach ity struck when home. We kept clear my head and wears. I realized that I talking and chatforget about my The D-day finally was feeling dizzy ting and sending ugly encounter. and feeling really naked and explicit came, we all assembled at the funny and light photographs to This is My Story. each other and he Lagos Island Boat headed. Not only Club. I was wowed me, but other girls I happened to have told me naughty because it was a around me too a married man as things of how he high class party. noticed there was wanted to whisper a contact on my something strange BBM. He had been things in my ear, I We were cruising in a boat loaded about it. blushed. We didn’t asking me out for see for two weeks with goodies over six months drinks and hot I was also feeling and that was beand I refused to date him. As time cause his wife just babes, and as well HORNY as hell! I ‘MARRIED MEN’. I had been drugged. went on, he invited came back from did not care, I just They monitored me clubbing with Turkey. said in my mind us and when they him when his wife that I would not knew the drug had One faithful evewas outside the roll with married really gone deep ning, he pinged country, and I went men anymore after into our system, with him all night. me that he was this, that for now, they moved us organising a beach We spent most of up into the main party/boat cruise all I wanted to do the night at Swe was to catch some beach house. I and that he would Bar, Lagos in Nigefun. After all, I could still see love me to be his ria. wasn’t paying bills. faces, but was too date and that he weak and horny to wanted to open a I also met his We got there, react. BBM chat, as a meclique of friends, dium for his friends it was a private married as well and my friends to beach resort. Most Mr B, the man with their variwho took me clubinteract. I was ex- of the beach faous mistresses. cilities I got to see, bing, carried me cited about it, I just We had ‘mad’ fun. were owned by in his hands like a After all the club- wanted to have multinational comsacrifice and put fun. I was able to bing and drinking, he lodged me in a get five of my very panies. We got out me down on the of the boat, and floor just as other hotel somewhere hot friends. went to where we men also did with in Obalende. I felt were partying. It their girls. We were The BBM group sort of safe with

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â&#x20AC;&#x153;We were drugged and used like tissue paper. I grabbed my phone and noticed a ping came in. I checked my phone and I I enjoyed it a bit noticed the BBM because I was group had been horny. It was a deleted, and a mixed feeling message via BBM because I cried, I moaned, but We spent the night from MR B came in. He threatened me I did not know at the beach, but how many times the men were no- that if I say a word he came into me. where to be found. to anyone, I would He pounded me I looked round me regret it. hard. I was dizzy, and all I could see but he grabbed was packs of used I told him he was me with force. condoms. I ran to a bastard, and he said try it. A phoAll I could notice pick my clothes was the wedding and possibly raise tograph came in, several phoring on his finan alarm. I got tographs. In fact, ger. I thought of dressed, found how wicked and my phone with an they were photographs of us being miserable some envelope. It connaked on the floor. married men can tained N16,000 be. How inhuman and a note asking Photographs of the humiliating we and heartless they us to take N2000 could be. each for transport. all went through but they blurred Tears of anger All of them took and rage filled my the faces of the turns in switcheyes and the girls men. In total, I got ing partners and around me as well. 20 clips. I was not myself for a month. slept with all of us. eight in numbers; 8 girls, 8 guys, and they all stripped us down and had sex with us.

I passed out. That was the last thing I could remember. I felt water poured on me. I noticed all the other girls around me too were half naked and some stark naked.

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I went back to school, I had no one to talk to. The rest of the semester was hell for me. My CGPA dropped drastically. It was the worst out of the worst result I ever had. Till today, my friends and I have not discussed this with anyone, but all I could do when I heard of Cynthiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s story was to narrate my own ordeal anonymously and spread the news, the word, and pray that those (ladies who do runs) saw it and changed their ways. I am now born again. I have given my life to Christ. I fear men so much that I cannot even move close to them. I still have

nightmares, but with time, God will strengthen me and I will move on. My advice to single ladies out there is, do not be desperate for fun. Pray to God to open your eyes of understanding, and pray hard. He who kneels before God will stand before Kings and Queens. To all married women, pray hard to God to intervene in your marriages and turn your husbands from bad habits and bad friends. As for me, I do not think I ever want to get married or date a man again. That chapter has been closed for good in my life.

President Goodluck Jonathan concession speech after electoral defeat Fellow Nigerians, I thank you all for turning out en-masse for the March 28 General Elections. I promised the country free and fair elections. I have kept my word. I have also expanded the space for Nigerians to participate in the democratic process. That is one legacy I will like to see endure. Although some people have expressed mixed feelings about the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission

(INEC), I urge those who may feel aggrieved to follow due process based on our constitution and our electoral laws, in seeking redress. As I have always affirmed, nobodyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ambition is worth the blood of any Nigerian. The unity, stability and progress of our dear country is more important than anything else. I congratulate all Nigerians for successfully going through the process of the March 28th General Elections with the commendable

enthusiasm and commitment that was demonstrated nationwide. I also commend the Security Services for their role in ensuring that the elections were mostly peaceful and violence-free. To my colleagues in the PDP, I thank you for your support. Today, the PDP should be celebrating rather than mourning. We have established a legacy of democratic freedom, transparency, economic growth and free and fair elections. For the past 16

years, we have steered the country away from ethnic and regional politics. We created a Pan-Nigerian political party and brought home to our people the realities of economic development and social transformation. Through patriotism and diligence, we have built the biggest and most patriotic party in Nigerian history. We must stand together as a party and look to the future with renewed optimism. I thank all Nigerians once again for

the great opportunity I was given to lead this country and assure you that I will continue to do my best at the helm of national affairs until the end of my tenure. I have conveyed my personal best wishes to General Muhammadu Buhari. May God Almighty continue to bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria. I thank you all. GEJ