Augmented Intelligence by Aaron Hayes-Roth

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Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans by Kjell Carlsson, Ph.D. December 4, 2018

Why Read This Report

Key Takeaways

What do fully autonomous vehicles, virtual agents, and human-like robots have in common? They’re terrible role models for driving outcomes with AI, as they require big investments, take years to develop, and fail to meet expectations. In contrast, augmenting human intelligence with AI leverages both AI’s superhuman advantages and humans’ advantages over AI to quickly create substantial business value. This report describes augmented intelligence to help application development and delivery (AD&D) pros design AI projects with the greatest nearterm transformative potential.

AI Is Terrible At Replacing Human Intelligence AI struggles with tasks where there is a long tail of potential outcomes or alternatives, uncertainty, and insufficient data — i.e., essential aspects of every human job. And there is no sign that this will change in the foreseeable future. Augmented Intelligence Empowers Humans With AI And Vice Versa Augmented intelligence solutions combine the best of humans and machines. They use machine learning to analyze data and detect patterns at superhuman scale and leverage automation to act at superhuman speed. They leverage human expertise to go beyond the confines of the existing data, source additional data, reason, make judgement calls, and engage with other humans. The Augmented Are Already Among Us Thanks to easier stakeholder buy-in, quantifiable ROIs, lower R&D costs, fewer technological hurdles, and less change management, AI is currently augmenting jobs ranging from data center technicians and oncology nurses to sales executives and customer service agents. And a host of new augmented jobs is on the way.

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Table Of Contents 2 Replace Human Intelligence With AI — And Brace For Failure AI Is An Excellent Complement To Human Intelligence But A Lousy Substitute For It 4 Combine Human And Artificial Intelligence For Augmented Intelligence

Related Research Documents Automation, AI, And Robotics Aren’t Quick Wins The Forrester Tech Tide™: Artificial Intelligence For Business Insights, Q3 2018 The Future Of Work: Intelligent Machines Whispering To Your Employees The Technology-Augmented Employee

Meet The Superhumans Using Augmented Intelligence Today Augmented Intelligence Delivers Value Faster Recommendations

8 Rethink AI For Augmented Intelligence

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For Application Development & Delivery Professionals

December 4, 2018

Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans

Replace Human Intelligence With AI — And Brace For Failure What do fully autonomous vehicles, human-like robots, and virtual agents have in common? They try to use AI technologies to replace human intelligence — but they’re terrible at it (see Figure 1). While these examples may be extraordinary displays of technological progress, they’re also a cautionary tale of how hard it is to use AI to fully automate any job that requires a decently paid human.1 That’s why Forrester thinks that job losses due to AI and automation will be just one-seventh of what some influential studies predict.2 Unfortunately, thanks to movies, literature, overly optimistic marketing, and a general lack of AI understanding, these use cases to automate human intelligence are exactly the AI projects that enterprises think they should focus on — but they’re wrong.3 These projects are: ›› Expensive, slow, and risky. At best, projects that look to replace human intelligence require scarce talent; at worst, they require years of expensive R&D with uncertain prospects. It has taken Google almost a decade to bring its first autonomous vehicle offerings to market, even though the tech sector’s combined recent investment in these projects is larger than the GDP of the poorest 40 developing countries put together.4 And while human-like robots have been in development since the 1970s, it’s still uncertain when — or even if — the technology will be mature enough for widespread commercial applications. ›› Hard to operationalize. Yes, employees are likely to push back on new AI systems that they think might replace them — but this is actually less of a challenge than having to redesign and rebuild your end-to-end business processes in order to replace human intelligence. We could implement fully autonomous vehicles today — if we were willing to design and build a separate road network just for them. Switching exclusively to virtual agents for customer service could also work well — if you’re willing to re-engineer your entire business model to make your offerings so cheap that the higher demand and lower expectations outweigh the blowback from the decline in your customer service.5 “AI is currently very, very stupid. It is really good at doing things our brains can’t handle, but not things that we can do very easily as humans.” (Andrew Moore, VP of AI, Google Cloud)

FIGURE 1 The Most Commonly Cited Examples Of AI Are Terrible

Human-like robots

Self-driving cars

Virtual agents

Extremely long time-to-value

Staggering development costs

Limited functionality

For Application Development & Delivery Professionals

December 4, 2018

Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans

AI Is An Excellent Complement To Human Intelligence But A Lousy Substitute For It AI fails at replacing human intelligence because no technology replicates the general-purpose nature of human intelligence. Yes, deep learning involves neural networks, where each artificial neuron is a mathematical representation of a biological one, but the similarities end there. If you could scale a neural network to match the 100 billion neurons in a human brain, it would be no more intelligent than an insect. So is AI doomed? Far from it. Instead of a general-purpose intelligence that operates on a wide range of tasks, AI consists of a vast array of technologies that deliver superhuman performance on specific tasks (see Figure 2).6 AI technologies: ›› Have superhuman abilities to analyze data . . . Machine learning (ML) technologies that are part of AI can analyze a breadth of data types and sources at a scale and speed far beyond the abilities of any person or team of people. Given enough data and computational horsepower, AI could analyze all of the data from every machine on your assembly line, each of your surveillance cameras, or every social network or stock market in the world — in near real time. With sufficient training, AI can detect patterns that are far too complex for humans to detect. AI regularly outperforms oncologists at evaluating medical images to determine whether a patient’s tumor is benign or malignant and has been used to predict the likelihood of heart disease from variations in vocal patterns that no human can detect.7 ›› . . . and enable actions based on data at scale. AI automation technologies like decision management, robotic process automation, and chatbots excel at executing standard processes that are deterministic or relatively invariable at a speed, scale, and efficiency that dwarf human abilities.8 This enables these technologies to convey the results of ML analyses at the right moment and in a form that enables humans to make a decision and partially or fully automate the resulting action. Swift Medical enables nurses to measure and classify the wounds they treat using computer vision and automatically generate the required Medicare documentation; nurses can focus on validating the documentation and treating patients.9 ›› Lack humans’ ability to make decisions involving variety and uncertainty. Human jobs involve making a constant stream of decisions based on incomplete data. We have ways to overcome this; we gather additional information, reassess based on the specifics of a situation, and reason our way toward conclusions. But when AI solutions face situations for which they lack the right data — because it wasn’t available at the time of training or isn’t visible to the system — they make abysmal decisions. This inability to make accurate decisions when fed insufficient or biased training data has led to high-profile and often inexcusable AI failures: Uber’s self-driving car killed a pedestrian; Google’s Vision API labeled two black people as gorillas; and early versions of IBM’s Watson for Oncology suggested inaccurate cancer diagnoses and inappropriate treatment.

For Application Development & Delivery Professionals

December 4, 2018

Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans

FIGURE 2 AI’s Superhuman Abilities And Less-Than-Human Failings

Characteristic

Strengths and weaknesses

AI delivers superhuman insight

•

Processes data beyond humans’ abilities to do so

•

Performs analyses more powerful than any mind

•

Finds patterns too complex to perceive

•

Lightning speed

AI automates standard processes

•

Effectively tackles tasks you feel bad asking a human to do

•

Takes rapid action based on human direction

AI struggles with uncertainty and judgment

•

Struggles with the long tail of possible situations

•

Cannot fill gaps in context

•

Can neither reason nor explain

•

Struggles to instill trust and build engagement

Superhuman ability

Combine Human And Artificial Intelligence For Augmented Intelligence So how do enterprises use AI to rapidly create substantial and sustainable value? They combine the strengths of human and artificial intelligence into augmented intelligence. Specifically, they use AI to augment the intelligence and performance of employees undertaking difficult, valuable jobs in the organization. In the process, they boost not just individual outcomes and productivity, but also the employee experience. Forrester defines augmented intelligence as: The use of AI to improve a human’s ability to do their job combining machine learning technologies for processing and analyzing data at scale; technologies for automating and orchestrating standard processes; and human input, decision making, and action. Meet The Superhumans Using Augmented Intelligence Today A rapidly increasing number of jobs are starting to leverage augmented intelligence to make better decisions and dramatically boost their productivity (see Figure 3). With augmented intelligence: ›› Oncology nurses spend more time with patients. Tasked with identifying patients at risk for cancer, nurse navigators at HCA, the largest for-profit hospital operator in the US, spent most of their time combing through documentation, shadowing physicians, and entering data. HCA worked with Digital Reasoning to develop a solution using natural language processing to continuously mine test results to identify patients with a high likelihood of cancer, trigger workflows, and

For Application Development & Delivery Professionals

December 4, 2018

Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans

automate the resulting data entry. In the first nine months, the system identified several thousand at-risk patients who would otherwise have gone undetected and enabled nurse navigators to spend 35% of their time interacting with patients, up from 10%. ›› Data center technicians increase uptime. To cope with the rapid growth of its data center hardware maintenance business, Park Place Technologies worked with BMC to develop a solution that provides automatic failure monitoring, ticket generation, and anomaly detection for predictive maintenance. The system also automatically collects and standardizes log data to help technicians accelerate triage and perform root-cause analyses. To date, the solution has decreased the time needed to resolve issues by 31% and increased the first-time fix rate by 5 percentage points, resulting in an extra hour of uptime per device. ›› Customer service reps empathize more with customers. Humana, one of the largest US health insurers, increased its Net Promoter Score by 28% on customer service calls with a solution from Cogito that gave agents real-time guidance based on the emotion in the voices of customers and agents.10 The system alerts agents when they exhibit “empathy fatigue;” it also detects when a customer’s frustration level increases and recommends that agents proactively suggest that the customer speak with a manager.11 Daiwa Securities, Japan’s second-largest brokerage firm, increased its customer purchase rate by 2.7 times and cut attrition in half by implementing a solution from SAS that created sets of personalized recommendations that human representatives could choose among for clients. ›› Sales execs drive better conversions. Sales execs at many corporations have reported dramatic increases in conversion rates and sales productivity from using predictive scores that suggest which prospect accounts to prioritize, summaries of relevant information about changes at accounts, suggested best actions for engaging accounts, and features to automatically capture information about sales activity. With Salesforce’s Sales Cloud Einstein, U.S. Bank reported a 135% increase in conversions via better lead scoring, Silverline reported a 30% increase in win rates from better information and suggested actions, and Zenconnect found that productivity increased by 20% with features that automatically captured sales activity. “It’s about what we can give to humans to help them do their job better. AI is an extension of everything we do around the person.” (Eric Chaniot, chief digital officer, Michelin Group)

For Application Development & Delivery Professionals

December 4, 2018

Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans

FIGURE 3 Soon-To-Be Augmented Jobs

Company/solution provider

Job

Description of augmentation

Assembly-line workers

Real-time guidance to boost productivity and catch mistakes as they occur using video analysis

Drishti

Claims examiners

Automatic surfacing of claims with a high likelihood of noncompliance using anomaly detection and NLP

Honda/SAS

Financial advisors

Proactive, hypertargeted investment advice based on past preferences and hypothetical investment alternatives, using knowledge graphs

Bridgeweave/ Cognitive Scale

Geneticists

Rapid diagnosis of rare genetic disorders using facial analysis

FDNA

Lawyers

Automatic analysis of complaints and draft discovery requests

LegalMation

Legal analysts

Automatic classification of key events over the course of an active case, such as to help identify cases that will need additional legal services

Rule14

Medical technicians/ doctorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s office staff

In-clinic blood tests with immediate results for complete blood count and malaria using image analysis

Sight Diagnostics

Radiologists

Automatic prioritization and flagging of medical images indicating a high likelihood of spinal fracture, intercranial hemorrhage, or any hyperdense pathology in the brain

Aidoc

Railway engineers

Automatic identification and prioritization of railway switches in need of maintenance using drones

Insight Enterprises

Stylists

Suggestion of potential outfit combinations based on customer preferences from which the stylist can select for the customer

Vue.ai

Translators

Suggestion of a translation for each sentence of a document to a human translator, who may accept or edit for accuracy, tone, and consistency

Lilt

Truck drivers

Oversight of multiple trucks that are self-driving in good highway conditions and remotely controlled in difficult conditions such as navigating narrow streets and docking

Starsky Robotics

ÂŠ 2018 Forrester Research, Inc. Unauthorized copying or distributing is a violation of copyright law. Citations@forrester.com or +1 866-367-7378

For Application Development & Delivery Professionals

December 4, 2018

Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans

Augmented Intelligence Delivers Value Faster How were these firms able to use AI to boost the productivity and efficacy of their oncology nurses, data center technicians, customer service agents, and sales execs so quickly? Because they were looking to augment, not replace, human intelligence with AI. Use cases that aim to replace human intelligence miss AI’s strengths, try to design around AI’s shortcomings, hope that lower ongoing costs will outweigh the impact of low performance — and usually fail. Augmented intelligence projects leverage AI’s superhuman abilities and rely on humans to avoid its shortcomings (see Figure 4). The resulting human/machine interactions support a human’s decision context, execute tasks, and can create human-managed machines.12 They deliver more value faster because they: ›› Make better decisions than human or artificial intelligence alone. Combining AI’s better data, analysis, and predictions with additional information about context and tradeoffs from human intelligence allow people to make better decisions about the course of action to take. According to former world chess champion Garry Kasparov, humans using computers can far outperform either the best human players or the best computers.13 ›› Boost productivity. By automating large, time-consuming tasks that don’t require human intelligence, augmented intelligence dramatically improves employee productivity and makes them more valuable. As these tasks are usually the bane of an employee’s existence, and because tasks requiring human intelligence are more rewarding to perform, higher employee satisfaction is a common side benefit. When ForceManager used IBM technology to build a voice assistant to allow sales execs to manage their pipelines and find information about prospects, it saw adoption by sales execs increase by 80%.14 ›› Are easier to deploy and adopt. Augmented intelligence projects allow you to work with existing business processes, thus requiring less change management. The ROI is clear, as you can estimate the benefits in terms of employee time and tangible business outcomes. Because a human is doing the task today, the goals for the solution tend to be clear and understandable by multiple stakeholders. The person whose job is to be augmented often becomes a willing partner and can impart their subject-matter expertise.15 At HCA, oncology nurses were the strongest champions of the project; nurses from other departments have since been requesting similar projects to augment their roles.16 ›› Are cheaper and faster to develop. As augmented intelligence solutions rely on humans to work around the limitations of AI, they typically add value in stages and iterate quickly rather than requiring extensive R&D and testing to eliminate the need for human intelligence. They can start with simple, well-understood advanced analytics and automation techniques that can be improved over time to tackle a larger range of tasks and situations or upgraded to use more data and sophisticated machine learning algorithms. By combining AI-based features like GPS navigation, driver/rider matching, and the collection of experience and reputation information with a human driver, Lyft and Uber have redefined personal transportation in most major cities around the world — in a fraction of the time and with a fraction of the R&D budget it took to develop fully autonomous cars.

For Application Development & Delivery Professionals

December 4, 2018

Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans

“AI is most useful when you get it into the hands of a subject-matter expert.” (Rajen Sheth, senior director, Google Cloud AI)

FIGURE 4 Augmented Intelligence Leverages The Best Of Artificial And Human Intelligence

Augmented intelligence = AI insights

AI orchestration

Human judgment and engagement

Better decisions

Greater productivity

Faster development of complete solutions

Recommendations

Rethink AI For Augmented Intelligence While there are altruistic reasons for using AI to improve employees’ productivity and quality of life, the main reasons for using augmented intelligence are purely selfish. Augmented intelligence projects deliver superior business value faster than projects that aim to use AI to replace human intelligence. Companies that have taken this approach to AI are seeing rapid improvements in performance and have started outcompeting those that have not. To start taking advantage of AI for augmented intelligence, Forrester recommends that AD&D professionals: ›› Target valuable jobs with difficult recurring tasks in data-rich environments. Identify jobs that have a large impact on the core business outcomes of the organization and which have to cope with recurring tasks that are both time-consuming and require specialized subject-matter expertise. Then assess the potential to augment the job with analysis and predictive models based on existing or additional data. Work with your highest-performing employees in these jobs to develop the machine learning-based insights they need and help them automate the execution of the most standard or time-consuming tasks.

For Application Development & Delivery Professionals

December 4, 2018

Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans

›› Leverage AI vendors with expertise in ML and automation technologies. Use vendors’ technical capabilities in these domains and experience implementing augmented intelligence projects to accelerate outcomes. Professional services vendors like Fractal Analytics, Insight Enterprises, and Tredence are good for building tailored augmented intelligence solutions from scratch or third-party components. Platform vendors like Cognitive Scale, Digital Reasoning, IBM, Maana, and SAS offer tools optimized for specific augmented intelligence use cases. Softwareas-a-service vendors — such as Salesforce in CRM, OpenText in enterprise content management, and Oracle in human capital management — embed augmented intelligence capabilities into their offerings. Even better, seek out vendors that have augmented intelligence solutions tailored to your particular functional or vertical-specific use cases. ›› Build in-house AI development and implementation capabilities in tandem. To identify augmented intelligence opportunities, evaluate vendor solutions, and ensure that solutions are implemented successfully and continue to improve, you need your own AI specialists. Above all, you need in-house teams to develop solutions for the myriad use cases that vendors don’t support, whether that’s creating them from scratch or building solutions using commercially available components like AI APIs.17 However, creating AI teams to experiment and prototype augmented intelligence without creating dedicated resources for the deployment, change management, and ongoing maintenance of these projects is setting them up for failure.

For Application Development & Delivery Professionals

December 4, 2018

Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans

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Endnotes For examples of dramatic failures with AI technologies and in-depth advice on building automation capabilities, see the Forrester report “Automation, AI, And Robotics Aren’t Quick Wins.”

See the Forrester report “The Future Of Jobs, 2027: Working Side By Side With Robots.”

For 2019 predictions on AI adoption, see the Forrester report “Predictions 2019: Artificial Intelligence.”

A Brookings report estimated the investment in self-driving cars between 2014 to 2017 at $80 billion, equal to the sum of the nominal GDP of the 40 countries with the lowest GDP in 2017 according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Database. Source: Cameron F. Kerry and Jack Karsten, “Gauging investment in self-driving cars,” Brookings Institution, October 16, 2017 (https://www.brookings.edu/research/gauging-investment-in-self-driving-cars/) and International Monetary Fund (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/02/weodata/index.aspx).

Forrester predicts that 60% of chatbot deployments will deliver worse customer service by making it hard to escalate to human agents and that there will be a customer revolt against corporate chatbots. See the Forrester report “Predictions 2019: Customer Service And Sales.”

For an overview of AI technologies, see the Forrester report “The Forrester Tech Tide™: Artificial Intelligence For Business Insights, Q3 2018.”

For Application Development & Delivery Professionals

December 4, 2018

Augmented Intelligence Unlocks The Intelligence In AI The Best Way To Leverage Artificial Intelligence Is To Combine Its Superhuman Abilities With The Super-AI Abilities Of Humans

AI classifies images of skin lesions as benign or malignant skin cancers at (or slightly above) the success rate of board-certified dermatologists. Source: Andre Esteva, Brett Kuprel, Roberto A. Novoa, Justin Ko, Susan M. Swetter, Helen M. Blau, and Sebastian Thrun, “Dermatologist-level classification of skin cancer with deep neural networks,” Nature, January 25, 2017 (https://www.nature.com/articles/nature21056).

AI predictions of patient outcomes for colorectal cancer outperform human experts. Source: Dmitrii Bychkov, Nina Linder, Riku Turkki, Stig Nordling, Panu E. Kovanen, Clare Verrill, Margarita Walliander, Mikael Lundin, Caj Haglund, and Johan Lundin, “Deep learning based tissue analysis predicts outcome in colorectal cancer,” Nature, February 21, 2018 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-21758-3). AI detects association between voice signal characteristics and coronary artery disease. Source: Elad Maor, Jaskanwal D. Sara, Diana M. Orbelo, Lilach O. Lerman, Yoram Levanon, and Amir Lerman, “Voice Signal Characteristics Are Independently Associated With Coronary Artery Disease,” Mayo Clinic Proceedings, July 2018 (https://www.ncbi.nlm. nih.gov/pubmed/29656789). For more on digital decisioning platforms that help automate insight-to-action cycles, see the Forrester report “The Dawn Of Digital Decisioning,” see the Forrester report “Now Tech: Digital Decisioning Platforms, Q3 2018,” and see the Forrester report “The Forrester New Wave™: Digital Decisioning Platforms, Q4 2018.”

Source: Interview with Swift Medical.

Net Promoter and NPS are registered service marks, and Net Promoter Score is a service mark, of Bain & Company, Satmetrix Systems, and Fred Reichheld.

Source: Jeff Bercovici, “Why the Secret to Making Customer Service More Human Isn’t Human at All,” Inc.com, July 2017 (https://www.inc.com/magazine/201707/jeff-bercovici/cogito-ai-reads-nonverbal-cues.html).

For more on how machine learning and automation technologies can increase human productivity, see the Forrester report “The Future Of Work: Intelligent Machines Whispering To Your Employees.”

Source: Tyler Cowen (host), “Garry Kasparov on AI, Chess, and the Future of Creativity (Ep. 22),” Conversations with Tyler, Medium, May 10, 2017 (https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/garry-kasparov-tyler-cowen-chess-iq-aiputin-3bf28baf4dba).

Source: IBM (https://www.ibm.com/case-studies/ForceManager).

For more on assessing your organization’s ability to deploy robotics and AI projects, see the Forrester report “RQ: Assess Your Readiness For Working Side By Side With Robots And AI.”

Source: Interview with Crystal Dugger, assistant vice president, clinical operations at Sarah Cannon, HCA.

Fifty-one percent of global data and analytics decision makers at firms interested in using, planning to use, or currently using AI said they were planning to build/building their organization’s AI capabilities by purchasing commercially available AI components to create their own solutions. Source: Forrester Analytics Global Business Technographics® Data And Analytics Survey, 2018. For more on AI APIs — pretrained AI models available as a service — see the Forrester report “AI APIs In The Cloud Are Here.”

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