Luxury Trends 3rd Quarter 2019 Tahoe/Truckee Market Report
DicksonLuxury.com
COVER PROPERTY FEATURED:
WELCOME
TO OUR 3RD QUARTER 2019 LUXURY MARKET REPORT
15220 WOLFGANG ROAD TAHOE DONNER $1,189,000 MLS# 20192568
We are pleased to present the 2019 Luxury Home Report through September with highlights and trends in our region. While we have experienced a slight slowing in the market, the luxury home market had admirable results and remains on trend with general real estate market conditions. The overall luxury market, when compared to September 2018, shows a modest average price adjustment of -6.7%, while median prices increased an average of 6.8%. There were 233 luxury homes that sold for $1,000,000 and above as of September 2019. This is a decrease of 23 sales (-8.9%) when compared to 256 homes sold as of September 2018. Of the homes sold, 70% were in the $1M-$2M price range. Average days on market decreased by 10%, a positive trend attributable to the continuing low inventory. The Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark rate in July 2019 and September, the first such reductions since December 2008. The decision to cut the federal funds rate may be beneficial for consumers by lowering interest rates on mortgages and home equity lines of credit. We believe it will generate positive activity in the real estate markets. As we transition from the beautiful fall months, we now prepare to embrace the delightful winter season. Our region is worldrenowned for unsurpassed snow and winter activities. We hope you enjoy this season with a place to call home in our area. It is our aim to provide you with useful information and competent expertise for planning your next real estate sale or purchase. Our team of Dickson Realty Luxury Home Specialists will provide you with an extraordinary experience based on its unique market knowledge for any transaction. We look forward to working with you. —Broker/Manager, Dickson Realty Truckee
Luxury Home Averages Over $1 Million January - September 2019 compared to January - September 2018
-7%
-7%
-4%
+6%
TOTAL UNITS SOLD
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE PER SF
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
2019: 155 2018: 167
2019: $2,218,396 2018: $2,377,512
2019: $623.00 2018: $648.00
2019: 101 2018: 95
Data Source: Tahoe Sierra Multiple Listing Service (TSMLS) as of October 4, 2019
Luxury Home Sales over $1 Million Truckee NUMBER OF SALES AVERAGE SALES $ HIGHEST SALE $
155 $2,218,396
Alpine Meadows NUMBER OF SALES AVERAGE SALES $
$8,500,000
HIGHEST SALE $
North Shore, Lake Tahoe, CA NUMBER OF SALES AVERAGE SALES $ HIGHEST SALE $
28
8%
NUMBER OF SALES
$1,842,000 $3,650,000
$1,949,964
AVERAGE SALES $
$5,475,000
HIGHEST SALE $
$3,000,000– $4,999,999
12%
HIGHEST SALE $
$1,762,107 $3,650,000
32 $1,662,500 $37,000,000
Active Listings Over $1 Million $5,000,000 and higher
$1,000,000– $1,999,999
70%
AVERAGE SALES $
14
West Shore, Lake Tahoe, CA NUMBER OF SALES
Sold Listings Over $1 Million $5,000,000 and higher
4
Squaw Valley
9%
$1,000,000– $1,999,999
58%
$3,000,000– $4,999,999
17%
$2,000,000$2,999,999
10%
$2,000,000$2,999,999
15% $1,000,000– 164 Sold Listings $1,999,999 $1,435,139 Average Price
$1,000,000– 148 Active Listings $1,999,999 $1,398,983 Average Price
$2,000,000– 24 Sold Listings $2,999,999 $2,454,562 Average Price
$2,000,000– 39 Active Listings $2,999,999 $2,447,041 Average Price
$3,000,000– 27 Sold Listings $4,999,999 $3,851,019 Average Price
$3,000,000– 44 Active Listings $4,999,999 $3,895,431 Average Price
$5,000,000 18 Sold Listings and higher $8,641,111 Average Price
$5,000,000 23 Active Listings and higher $7,542,913 Average Price
90 Average Days On Market
96 Average Days On Market
116 Average Days On Market
191 Average Days On Market
135 Average Days On Market
149 Average Days On Market
164 Average Days On Market
176 Average Days On Market
Data Source: Tahoe Sierra Multiple Listing Service (TSMLS) as of October 4, 2019
Recent Dickson Sales
SOLD $5,475,000
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,960,000
Buyer & Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,640,000
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
Lake Tahoe
Tahoe Donner
Gray's Crossing
SOLD $3,005,000
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,700,000
Buyer & Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $2,037,500
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
Lahontan
Tahoe Donner
Northstar
Recent Dickson Sales
SOLD $1,495,000
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,300,000
Buyer & Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,023,000
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
Donner Lake
Tahoe Donner
Tahoe City
SOLD $1,425,000
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,165,000
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,020,000
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
Donner Lake
Northstar
Tahoe Donner
Current Luxury Listings
$5,195,000
2221 Silver Fox Court
MLS# 20191481
$1,750,000 13617 Skislope Way
MLS# 20192144
Pending
$1,470,000 14643 Tyrol Road
$1,300,000 16356 Greenlee
MLS# 20191892
MLS# 20190894
$1,395,000
10741 Silver Spur Drive
$1,295,000 735 Conifer
MLS# 20192153
MLS# 20191498
Current Luxury Listings
$1,198,000 220 Basque
$1,195,000
12330 Snowpeak Way
MLS#20192400
MLS# 20192278
$1,195,000 15522 Foxboro
$1,189,000
15220 Wolfgang Road
MLS# 20191371
MLS# 20192568
Current Luxury Listings Pending
$1,175,000 237 Basque
MLS# 20191483
$1,125,000
13770 Pathway Avenue
MLS# 20190388
Pending
$1,125,000 12753 Hillside Drive
MLS# 20191981
$1,099,000
11726 Kitzbuhel Road
MLS# 20190510
Old Greenwood
January-September 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,670,147
-24.9%
$2,224,500
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,656,933
-24.6%
$2,196,500
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
-54%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
+50% FROM LAST YEAR
24
52
DAYS ON MARKET
6 UNITS SOLD
4
Gray’s Crossing
January-September 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,553,285
+10.7%
$1,402,545
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,600,000
+18.5%
$1,350,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
0%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
+91%
FROM LAST YEAR
86
86
DAYS ON MARKET
21 UNITS SOLD
11
Lahontan
January-September 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price AVERAGE $
2019 2018 2018
AVERAGE PRICE
+17.2%
$2,610,357 $2,227,731
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN $
MEDIAN PRICE
+26.9%
$2,537,500 $2,000,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
+4%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-26%
FROM LAST YEAR
106
102
DAYS ON MARKET
14 UNITS SOLD
19
Schaffer’s Mill
January-September 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price AVERAGE $
2019 2018 2018
AVERAGE PRICE
+3.8%
$1,533,650 $1,477,000
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN $
MEDIAN PRICE
+11.3%
$1,558,250 $1,400,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
-37%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
+11%
FROM LAST YEAR
127
200
DAYS ON MARKET
10 UNITS SOLD
9
Martis Camp
January-September 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$5,121,147
-4.5%
$5,363,901
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$4,937,500
+5.6%
$4,675,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
-19%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-29% FROM LAST YEAR
157
194
DAYS ON MARKET
24
34
UNITS SOLD
Northstar
January-September 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,818,625
-2.0%
$1,855,400
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,649,500
+8.2%
$1,525,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
+32%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-4%
FROM LAST YEAR
169
128
DAYS ON MARKET
24
25
UNITS SOLD
Squaw Valley-Alpine Meadows
January-September 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,779,861
+8.5%
$1,639,750
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,475,000
-3.8%
$1,533,250
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
-47%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
+80%
FROM LAST YEAR
132
228
DAYS ON MARKET
18 UNITS SOLD
10
Lake Tahoe – North Shore
January-September 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,949,964
-26.3%
$2,645,900
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,502,500
-7.5%
$1,625,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
+43%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-39%
FROM LAST YEAR
123
86
DAYS ON MARKET
28
46
UNITS SOLD
Lake Tahoe – West Shore
January-September 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$3,853,187
-15.7%
$4,572,212
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,662,500
-12.5%
$1,900,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
-41%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-3%
FROM LAST YEAR
66
112
DAYS ON MARKET
32
33
UNITS SOLD
Tahoe Donner
January-September 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,327,938
+7.5%
$1,235,368
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,250,000
+4.0%
$1,202,500
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
+12%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-29% FROM LAST YEAR
47
42
DAYS ON MARKET
27
38
UNITS SOLD
I’M LOCAL I’M GLOBAL
®
INDUSTRYLEADING SALES. WORLD-CLASS SERVICE.
MORE U.S. HOME SALES VOLUME $32 BILLION MORE U.S. HOME SALES VOLUME IN 2018 THAN OUR CLOSEST COMPETITOR AMONG THE TOP 500 FIRMS 300
Leading Real Estate Companies of the World® Keller Williams
565 COMPANIES
4,300 OFFICES
130,000 SALES ASSOCIATES
OVER 70 COUNTRIES
250
Non-LeadingRE Independents Berkshire Hathaway Home Services RE/MAX
$222
Sotheby’s International Realty Century 21
200
HomeSmart
$192
ERA
$182
Better Homes & Gardens Realty Executives Exit Realty
150
100
®
Leading Real Estate Companies of the World
1.1 MILLION GLOBAL TRANSACTIONS
Coldwell Banker
$254
$89
$83 $72
50
$30 $14
$14
$12
$7
$.5
0
Volume shown in billions of dollars This bar chart is sourced from REAL Trends Top 500 for 2018, realtrends.com
®
© 2019 Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. All Rights Reserved. C–Sales Volume. 04.19
Equal Housing Opportunity.
As an affiliate of Leading Real Estate Companies of the World,® Dickson Realty is a local and global market leader working on your behalf. LeadingRE’s world-class marketing resources and connections allow us to provide you with a truly exceptional real estate experience.
What is the current state of the resort and second home market? Affluent consumers are in acquisition mode Those who are in the market to purchase a luxury second home are adding to their portfolio and unlikely to sell their existing second home at this time—thus there
are more buyers than sellers. Interestingly too, this means that sellers are also buyers, but buyers are not necessarily sellers.
RESORT/SECOND HOME MARKET— TOTAL GLOBAL AFFLUENT Sell Exclusive
16%
Both Buy and Sell
62%
Buy Exclusive
Both
22%
Buy Exclusive Sell Exclusive
Buyers show more confidence in the market than sellers. More than half of buyers believe that now is a good time to purchase a second home, while relatively few
Total Affluent
Luxury Second Home Buyer
Luxury Second Home Seller
22% 62% 16%
28% 72% 0%
69% 0% 31%
think it is a good time to sell. As noted previously, these consumers are quite savvy when it comes to home ownership; 76% own two or more properties currently.
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING IS IT A GOOD TIME TO DO? Buy a Secondary Home | Sell a Secondary Home 80%
70%
70% 60%
54%
50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
26%
22% 11%
11%
0% Total Affluent
Luxury Second Home Buyers
Luxury Second Home Sellers
Article and images used with permission from Luxury Portfolio International. For more info, visit www.LuxuryPortfolio.com/blog
Fueling the competition We are seeing a rising competitive spirit, as today’s buyers believe that other potential buyers have reached the same conclusion, that it is a good time to purchase, possibly fueling a fear of missing out on the best properties.
More than half of luxury second home buyers believe the market is getting stronger as new money floods the global marketplace.
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS BEST DESCRIBES YOUR POINT OF VIEW ON THE LUXURY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET? Total Affluent
Luxury Second Home Buyer
Luxury Second Home Seller
22% 23% 22% 33%
55% 25% 15% 5%
49% 33% 13% 6%
It is getting stronger (more buyers) It is getting softer (fewer buyers) It is not changing very much I do not know about this market Some sellers show concerns, as 33% believe the market is getting softer. This may be influenced by media reports about climate change threatening beachside resort communities, limited snowfall at ski resorts or news about golf course closure rates. Beyond that
perception, they show signs of concern in their own financial stability, coupled with the potential to turn a profit in the near term. These may be strong motivating factors to sell.
Article and images used with permission from Luxury Portfolio International. For more info, visit www.LuxuryPortfolio.com/blog
Bottom line: There are more potential buyers now than ever before Global personal wealth has continued to grow at a rapid pace since 2010. Despite a slight contraction between 2014 and 2016 the overall growth rate has been staggering. Looking more recently, in just the past four
years, personal wealth globally has grown by 15% and the number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) has increased by 25%. The potential market for luxury property has never been bigger.
CREDIT SUISSE: GLOBAL WEALTH TREND
$340,000
High-net-worth individuals
45,000,000
$320,000
40,000,000
$300,000 35,000,000
$280,000 $260,000
30,000,000
$240,000 25,000,000
$220,000
20,000,000
$200,000 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total personal wealth in USD billions
USD $1 Million+ Net Worth Individuals | Global Personal Wealth
2018
CREDIT SUISSE: HNWI AND PERSONAL WEALTH LEVELS WORLDWIDE INDIVIDUALS (MILLIONS OF ADULTS)
$1–5 Million (net worth) $5–10 Million (net worth) $10+ Million (net worth) Total HNWI (NW $1 Million+) million adults Personal Wealth Levels (USD billions)
2015
2018
Percent Change
29.8 2.5 1.5 33.8 $275,531
37.1 3.3 1.8 42.2 $317,084
25% 31% 22% 25% 15%
Article and images used with permission from Luxury Portfolio International. For more info, visit www.LuxuryPortfolio.com/blog
While the market bears an ever-growing group of potential buyers, sellers are showing signs of concern that cannot be ignored. Luxury second home sellers appear to have concerns over the economy’s continued expansion; two-thirds predict a recession is coming, though most believe it will last less than one year. Despite similar demographics to buyers, sellers have a distinct mindset toward concern for their assets.
Those at the highest end of the wealth spectrum (over $10 million in assets) represent a unique opportunity. While the mainstream market has concern and behaves with caution, this consumer is becoming more aggressive with investing and feeling extremely confident in the market. Our last paper, Media and the Message: Marketing Real Estate to the Affluent, detailed the media consumption habits of the global high-net-worth household, and some insights can be carried forward for the ultra-high-networth consumer, specifically:
External factors, such as the strength of the global economy and security of retirement assets create significant concern for sellers, their own behavior may be complicating matters. Sellers are 65% more likely than buyers to say they spend beyond their means and are 30% more likely than buyers to be worried they may run out of money someday. Their aggressive positioning in the market (currently own 3.8 homes on average) combined with high luxury living may be too much risk to bear ahead of an expected economic slowdown. Divesting from the property may also free up some much needed cash flow.
This group is more reliant on agents than websites for information (though they do use both). Online videos, articles, and advertising in real estate/design magazines and news media elicit an above average response.
Total Affluent
Luxury Second Home Buyer
Luxury Second Home Seller
21% 39% 51% 21%
55% 49% 56% 37%
56% 65% 73% 61%
Confident in the strength of the global economy Concerned with the security of retirement assets Agree I worry that at some point I may run out of money Agree I spend beyond my means
DO YOU THINK THAT YOUR COUNTRY IS HEADING INTO A RECESSION? Total Affluent
50% Yes
Average # of months duration
12.6
Luxury Second Home Buyer
Luxury Second Home Seller
43%
63%
Yes
Average # of months duration
10.3
Yes
Average # of months duration
Article and images used with permission from Luxury Portfolio International. For more info, visit www.LuxuryPortfolio.com/blog
9.4
TRUCKEE 530.587.7444 DOWNTOWN RENO 775.324.7000
CAUGHLIN RANCH 775.746.7000
PORTOLA 530.832.1700
DONNER LAKE 530.587.4811
DAMONTE RANCH 775.850.7000
SOMERSETT 775.746.7222
NORTHSTAR 530.562.1140 MONTRÊUX 775.849.9444
SPARKS 775.685.8800
DicksonLuxury.com | luxury@dicksonrealty.com
© 2019 Dickson Realty. All rights reserved. Although the information above is deemed reliable, Dickson Realty does not guarantee its accuracy. If your property is currently listed for sale, this is not intended to be a solicitation.