Monthly Economic Brief - December 2012 by Ake Saroj

Charting Thailand’s Economy®

ตรวจสุขภาพ เศรษฐกิจไทย รายเดือน • • • • • •

จีดีพีไตรมาส 3 นาผิดหวัง ผลผลิตอุตสาหกรรมฟนตัว ความเชื่อมั่นภาคธุรกิจดีขึ้น งบประมาณขาดดุลมากชึ้น ดุลการคาที่นาเปนหวง และมุมมองดานอื่นๆอยางรอบดาน

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Charting Thailand’s Economy® ѯюѶ ь

њѥіѝѥіѠѧѯјѶзъіѠьѧзѝіҙ ѥѕѯчѪѠьіѬюѰээѲўєҕъ Ѩѷ Җ Ѳндіѥђђѧ зєѥѠыѧэѥѕзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ њѥкшјѥчъѫдѵњѤьъѨѷ 5 еѠк ѯчѪѠь

Ѩ ъѨє ѝѼѥўіѤэєѪѠѠѥнё ѷ з Ѩ њѥєлѼѥѯюѶ ьш ҖѠк шѧчшѥєѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьуѥьѣѝњҕ ьўьѩкѷ еѠккѥьѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ зѫцѝѥєѥіщьѼ ѥнѥіҙш Җ еѠкѯіѥѳюѲнѲькѥьеѠкзѫ цѳч ҖъѤьъѨ ѯёѨѕкѰзҕзц ѫ эѠдѰўјҕкъѨє ѷ ѥѰјѣѳєҕ ьѼ ѥѳючѤчѰюјк

Ѫѷ њҕѥдѥішѧчшѥєзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯіѥѯнѠ ѯћіќудѧлѱчѕіњє ѯюѶ ьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѝѼѥзѤръѨл ѷ ѣш ҖѠкєѨ зњѥєзіѠэзјѫєъѫдѵч Җѥь ѰјѣдѶш ҖѠккҕѥѕшҕѠ Ѥ дѥіъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲл ѰшҕѲьѝщѥьдѥіцҙюѤллѫэь ъѨе ѷ ҖѠєѬјъѨѯѷ іѥѳч ҖіѤэдјѤэј ҖьѯдѧьѰјѣюѣюьдѤь ъѤкѸ зњѥєѯўѶьъѤкѸ е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкльъѼѥѲў ҖѕѥдъѨл ѷ ѣ лѤэѲлзњѥє

ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдыѫідѧлўіѪѠяѬ ҖюіѣдѠэдѥі ьѨз ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җзѫц Ѱўјҕке ҖѠєѬјзњѥєіѬ ҖъѨл юіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѥєѯћіќудѧл ўіѪѠ Ѱє ҖдіѣъѤѷкѯюѶ ьъѨѠ ѷ ҖѥкѠѧкюіѣлѼѥ зѠєёѧњѯшѠіҙеѠкзѫцѲьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧл ѳъѕ

ҕ ьѤь ч Җњѕзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлѯнь Ѹ ѯіѥеѠѠѥѝѥьѼ ѥѯѝьѠ њѧыў Ѩ ьѩкѷ ъѨл ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җъҕѥьѯе ҖѥѲлзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳю еѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѳч Җкҕѥѕѵ ѯўєѪѠьѳч ҖѠҕѥьяј шіњлѝѫеѓѥёѯћіќудѧліѥѕѯчѪѠь ъѨѯѷ ь Җь е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкѯюѶ ьёѪь Ѹ уѥь ѯіѥўњѤкњҕѥлѣѯюѶ ьюіѣѱѕньҙѰдҕъѥҕ ьѳч Җ Ѱјѣщ Җѥ ѧ ѳч ҖъѨѷ ъҕѥьѠѕѥдѯіѨѕьіѬ Җѯёѧє ѷ ѯшѧєдѶѯіѨѕьѯнр

ѩ ќѥіњєщѩкяѬ ҖъѨѷ ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдѯіѨѕььѤдћд ѩ ќѥч ҖњѕшьѯѠк ьѨз ћд ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѰўјҕкѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖъѨѷ зѫцлѣѳч ҖёэдѤэњѧыд Ѩ ѥіѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖѰјѣъѼѥ зњѥєѯе ҖѥѲліѣээѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѨѯѷ юѶ ь іѣээѰјѣѝі Җѥкѝіізҙ іњєѳющѩкѱѠдѥѝѲь дѥіѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьзњѥєіѬ ҖѲьўєѬя ҕ Ѭ ҖъѨѝ ѷ ьѲл ѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ

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ѯіѨѕьъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥь, Ѫѷ њҕѥъҕѥьъѨш ѯнѠ ѷ ч ѧ шѥє Charting Thailand’s Economy єѥѯюѶ ьюіѣлѼѥзклѣ ъіѥэчѨщкѩ ѱзікѝі ҖѥкеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѨё ѷ кѩѷ ёѥдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѯюѶ ьѠѕҕѥкѝѬк Ѩ ъѨѷ ѱчѕѯмёѥѣўјѤклѥдњѧдїшѯћіќудѧлюѨ 2540 окѩѷ ўјѥѕнѥшѧѲьѯѠѯнѕ Ѥ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѯюѶ ьѰікеѤэѯзјѪѠ юіѣѝэњѧдїшєѥч ҖњѕдѤь дѶј ҖњьѠѥћѕ ѷ ьдѥіђѪѸ ь шѤњъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѷ єѠкѳюе Җѥкўь ҖѥѲьіѣѕѣѕѥњѰј ҖњьѤь Ѹ шјѥчдѥіз ҖѥѱјдчѬлѣѳєҕѝчѲѝ ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѠѤьѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдѓѥњѣѯћіќудѧлнѣјѠшѤњщѩкщчщѠѕеѠкюіѣѯъћіѼѥѷ іњѕяѬ ҖѯюѶ ь ѪѸ ѝѫъыѧеѠкѱјд яѬ ҖоѠ Ѫѷ њҕѥдѥіѯюјѨѕ Charting Thailand’s Economy ѯнѠ ѷ ьѰюјкѱзікѝі Җѥкъѥк Ѥ ёѤд ѯћіќудѧл окѩѷ юдшѧѯдѧчеѩь Ѹ ѳєҕэѠ ҕ ѕѰјѣъѼѥѳч Җѳєҕкѥҕ ѕьѤд ѳч Җѯдѧчеѩь Ѹ єѥѝд Ѱј Җњ ѰшҕѲьюѨ ьѯѨѸ іѥлѣѯўѶьъѧћъѥкдѥічѼѥѯьѧььѱѕэѥѕъѥкѯћіќудѧллѥдъѥк Ѥ ѯльњҕѥѯюѶ ьѳюѲьѰьњъѥкъѨѯѷ ь Җьдѥідіѣшѫ ҖьчѨєѥьчҙ іѤуэѥјѳч Җнч ѓѥѕѲьюіѣѯъћ ѰьҕьѠьњҕѥўьъѥкѳєҕѳч Җѱіѕч ҖњѕдјѨэдѫўјѥэ дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкзіѤкѸ јҕѥѝѫчдѤэ ѱзікѝі ҖѥкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ 2540 ш ҖѠкѰјдєѥч Җњѕдѥіј Җєўѥѕшѥѕлѥд ѷ ш ҖьдѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјк ѳюеѠкўјѥѕѵыѫідѧл зіѤкѸ ьѨѯѸ ўѶьлѣчѨдњҕѥшікъѨѯѷ іѥѯіѧє ҕ д ч ҖњѕшѤњѯѠк ѳєҕѲнщ Ѭ эѤкзѤэѱчѕѝщѥьдѥіцҙ Ѱј ҖњёэдѤьюѨ ўь ҖѥзіѤэ

ѧ ѝѥѱін зкзѥюіѣѯѝіѧуѝь эііцѥыѧдѥіэіѧўѥі Editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com

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DEGREE OF OPENNESS Trade / GDP, 2010 or latest, %

Singapore

394.1

Malaysia

176.8

Vietnam

165.3

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135.1

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105.9 77.2 71.4

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¬¥º »n ¥¶´¥ ´¥Â ¶ Ä дѥіђѪѸ ьшѤњлѥдњѧдїшѠѫъдѓѤѕѯіѧє ѷ нѣјѠшѤњјк ѱчѕлѨчё Ѩ ѳѨ шієѥѝѝѥєѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 3.0% лѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ь окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьнњҕ кѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ Ѡк ъѤкѸ ьѨд Ѹ ѥіѯшѧэѱш еѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзѯѠдньѰјѣ ѷ Ѽѥѷ ѰѕҕѰјѣѯюѶ ь ѓѥзіѤуэѥј ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш ѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє єѨѳшієѥѝъѨѕ шѤњщҕњкдѥіѯшѧэѱш ѝњҕ ьѓѥзѠѪь ѷ ѵј Җњьѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. чѤньѨяјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієђѪѸ ьшѤњѯюѶ ьзіѤкѸ ѰідѲьіѠэ 5 ѯчѪѠь ѱчѕ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ 0.6% лѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ Ѱјѣ 36.1% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэш.з.юѨ дѠ ҕ ьокѩѷ ѯюѶ ь ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэюѨ дѠ ҕ ь нњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє Ѳьч ҖѥьяјяјѧшѓѥзѯдќшіѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨѯєѪѠ ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕчѤньѨдѥіэіѧѱѓзѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨѲьѯчѪѠь ш.з. ѝњҕ ьѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨеь ѩѸ ѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. Ѳьч ҖѥьчѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ ѝщѥьдѥіцҙдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѳєҕче Ѩ ь ѩѸ ѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 3.5% Ѳьнњҕ к 10 ѯчѪѠьѰід ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯшѧэѱшѝѬкєѥдщѩк 10.4% ецѣъѨѠ ѷ ш ѫ ѝѥўдіієдѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨ лѼѥьњььѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯёѧє ѷ єѥдеѩь Ѹ 10% Ѳь нњҕ к 10 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2012 ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ єѠкѳюе Җѥкўь ҖѥъѤкѸ ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧь ѰјѣьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьѝщѥьѣъѨѷ ѝкҕ ѯѝіѧєдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѱчѕѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кеѥјк окѩѷ ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з.єѨдѥіюіѤэјчѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕјкѠѨд 0.25% јкєѥѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ ѧ ѯнѠ Ѫѷ еѠкыьѥзѥіёѥцѧнѕҙеѕѥѕшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ 2.75% окѩѷ єѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў Җѝь ѷ к Ѳьч Җѥь ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкєѨдѥіѯэѧдлҕѥѕ іѥѕлҕѥѕёѧѯћќеѠкіѤуэѥјѯёѪѠ ѷ нчѯнѕзњѥє Ѩ ўѥѕлѥдѠѫъдѓѤѕѰјѣјкъѫь ъѼѥѲў ҖіѥѕлҕѥѕеѠкіѤуэѥјеѕѥѕшѤњєѥѲьнњҕ къѨѷ ѯѝѕ яҕѥьєѥеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з.ѓѥзыѫідѧлѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьєѥєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчѠ Ѩ д Ѩ зіѤкѸ ѲьецѣъѨѓ ѷ ѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕ ь ҖѠѕјк ѲьѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫчѝѓѥёѤхьҙѢюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкюѨ ьј ѨѸ кѯўјѪѠ 5.5% ѝњҕ ьыюъ.юіѤэјчеѠкюѨ ўь ҖѥѯўјѪѠ 4.7% ъѼѥѲў Җјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 5.5-6.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012 Ѱјѣ іѣўњҕѥк 4.2-5.2% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013

´¥ n´ ´ Ã§² ´¥ ¥² ´¤¥´¤Æ n ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. 2012 ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕєѥѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 0.63% ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ іѥѕѳч ҖшҕѠўѤњеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъѨѷ 83 еѠкѱјд зьѳъѕѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ лѣєѨ іѥѕѳч Җь ҖѠѕдњҕѥзьлѨьѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ ѠѕѬѯҕ јѶдь ҖѠѕ ѰшҕлѣєѨіѥѕѳч ҖєѥддњҕѥзьѠѧьѯчѨѕ ѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ щѩкдњҕѥѝѥєѯъҕѥ дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэ Ѩ Ѱшҕєд ъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ Ѩ ѥіёѤхьѥчѨеь ѩѸ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьіѣѕѣ 5юѨ ъя Ѩѷ ѥҕ ьєѥ дѥіелѤч зњѥєѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєъѨч ѷ е Ѩ ь ѩѸ ѲьіѣѕѣўдюѨ ўјѤк ѯўѶьѳч ҖлѥдлѼѥьњьзьѕѥдль Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльѲьюѤ ллѫэѤьдѶщѠ Ѫ њҕѥшѼѥѷ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэъѤкѸ ѲьѠчѨш ъѨј ѷ чјкѰјѣѝч ѰјѣєѥшіуѥьюіѣѯъћдѼѥјѤкёѤхьѥ

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´ ´ Âª¥« ¶ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкєѥѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 2.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьё.ѕ. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% щѪѠњҕѥзҕѠье ҖѥкшѼѥѷ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэюіѣѯъћѠѪь ѷ ѵ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъікшѤњчѨ ѝч ѷ ѧѸ ѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѥєеѠк еѩь Ѹ єѥѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җјчјк ц ѝь Ѥ ѝњҕ ьѝь ѧ ѯнѠ Ѫѷ шҕѠѯкѧьѐѥдѯёѧє юѨ ьѨѸ ѝч ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѕѤкзкьҕѥѯюѶ ьўҕњк чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѲьнњҕ к 10 ѯчѪѠь ѰідеѠкюѨ шч ѧ јэєѥддњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњщѩкдњҕѥ 300,000 ј Җѥьэѥъ ъѤкѸ ьѨю Ѹ іѣѯъћѳъѕщѬдзѥчњҕѥлѣеѥччѫјкэюіѣєѥц -3.8% еѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьюѨ ьѨѸ окѩѷ щѪѠњҕѥѳєҕь ҖѠѕ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥцѣѯєѪѠ ѷ њѤчѲьіѬюі ҖѠѕјѣеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲь юѨ ьѱѨѸ чѕ ц ѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 44% окѩѷ ѕѤкѳєҕщѠ Ѫ њҕѥѝѬкьѤдѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэ єѥшіѥуѥььѥьѥнѥшѧ ѱчѕѯл ҖѥўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѝњҕ ьѲўрҕѠѕѬѲҕ ьюіѣѯъћ ѩѸ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫј ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨеь ѝѥѯўшѫўјѤдєѥлѥдчѫјэіѧдѥіѰјѣдѥіѯзјѪѠ ѷ ьѕ Җѥьъѫь ўьѨш Ѹ юъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ єѥд ѠѕҕѥкѳідѶч Ѩ зњѥєѝѥєѥіщѲьдѥінѼѥіѣўьѨш Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѳєҕьҕѥѯюѶ ьъѨѷ дѤкњјѯьѪѠ ѷ клѥдіѣчѤэъѫьѝѼѥіѠкъѨѝ ѷ кѬ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥъѰеѶкшѤњѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэ ѷ ѵѲьѯчѪѠьё.ѕ. дѤэѯкѧьѝдѫјѝѼѥзѤрѠѪь

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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• дѥіђѪѸ ьшѤњлѥдњѧдїшѠѫъдѓѤѕѯіѧє ѷ нѣјѠ • ѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієъѨѠ ѷ ѕѬѲҕ ьѝщѥьдѥіц ѓѥзѯдќшіѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшлѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕчѤньѨдѥіэіѧѱѓзѰјѣдѥ еѩь Ѹ ѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. • чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѕѤкѳєҕчь Ѩ Ѥд д ѳч ҖчѨшѥєѯюҖ ѥ • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ Ѳьшјѥчѯіѧє ѷ јчјкшѥє • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьєѥєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчѠ Ѩ • јҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱше Ѱјѣіѣўњҕѥк 4.2-5.2% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 20

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• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. 2012 ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч Җњҕѥ іѣѕѣ 5юѨ ъя Ѩѷ ѥҕ ьєѥ • дѥіелѤчзњѥєѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєъѨч ѷ е Ѩ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльѲьюѤ ллѫэь ѝч Ѥ дѶщѠ Ѫ њҕѥш

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• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤѷњѳюјчјкєѥѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 2.7% Ѳ яѬ Җяјѧшѯёѧє ѷ јчјкѯюѶ ь 0.6% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕкѤ зкъ ѳєҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җјчјк ѝѓѥёзј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѕѤкзкьҕѥѯюѶ ь нњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњщѩкдњҕѥ 300 • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч Җѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћч ѠѤьшіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥъѰеѶкзҕѥѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ

ѝѥіэѤр ўь Җѥ

ѠшѤњјк ѱчѕлѨчё Ѩ ѳѨ шієѥѝѝѥєѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 3.0% лѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ь цҙѕѼѥѷ ѰѕҕѲьѳшієѥѝ 3 ѯіѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіяјѧш

10 13

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

єдѥіюіѤэјчѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьецѣъѨѓ ѷ ѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 5.5-6.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012 013

35 37 40

2 ѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 0.63% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ Ѱшҕєд ѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ Ѩ ѥіёѤхьѥчѨеь ѩѸ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲь

еѩь Ѹ ѲьіѣѕѣўдюѨ ўјѤк ѯўѶьѳч ҖлѥдлѼѥьњьзьѕѥдльъѨј ѷ чјкѰјѣ шѼѥѷ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэъѤкѸ ѲьѠчѨшѰјѣєѥшіуѥьюіѣѯъћдѼѥјѤкёѤхьѥ

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє ъікшѤњѱчѕѝч ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ўьѨъ Ѹ Ѩѷ јҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьўҕњк чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѲьнњҕ к 10 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ шч ѧ јэєѥддњҕѥ 0,000 ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕкѤ ѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ чѨеь ѩѸ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫј ўьѨш Ѹ юъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕкѤ ѳєҕ

65 72

Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É µ¤ ¸ ¸¡Á¸ · Ã Á¡¸¥ 3% ¹É

´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

7.1% 6.3%

CAGR* 2000Ͳ2011 = 3.9%

5.3%

4.8%

4.6%

5.1% 5.0

2.2%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

nµ · ®ª´ Â n È¥ ´ Å¤n ¹ ´ ®µ¥ ³

7.8%

4.4% 3.0%

2.5% 0.1%

0.4%

-2.3%

07 2008 2009 2010 2011

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12

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´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 3Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 3.0

GDP

12.2

Mining

11.7

Agriculture

9.8

Construction

8.0

Transport

6.9

Hotel&Res Utilities

4.9

Health&Social

4.7

Private HH

4.6

RealEstate

4.4

Financial

4.2

PublicAdmin

4.1

Trading

4.1 3.6

Education 1.0

Other social -1.1

Manufacture Fishing

-6.4

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

Å ¦¤µ ¸É µ¤Â¨³Á È ´ª nª n° µ¦

´¥q 1.06b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 3Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѓѥзшҕѥкѵ 3.0

GDP 0.8

Transport

0.6

Agriculture

0.5

Trading Hotel&Res

0.3

Mining

0.3

Construction

0.2

Financial

0.2

Utilities

0.2

RealEstate

0.2

PublicAdmin

0.1

Education

0.1

Health&Social

0.1

Other social

0.0

Private HH

0.0

Fishing

-0.1

Manufacture -0.4 11

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥®¨´ ¸É ¦³ » o µ¦Á · Ã ° ¸ ¸¡Ä¸ ¦³Á « ´Ê µ £µ ¦´ Â¨³Á° ´¥q 1.08a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ¥´¤ m´¤ 3Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

GDP

3.0

6.0

ͲM

-1.4

-1.8

-2.8

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É µ¤¤µ µ µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Ä

´¥q 1.08b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 3Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдіѥѕлҕѥѕшҕѥкѵ

GDP

3.0

3.1

ͲM

1.2

1.1

Discrpncy

0.3

-0.3

-2.2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

´ ¸ ¨ ¨· °» µ® ¦¦¤¢ºÊ ´ªÁ È ¦´Ê Â¦

´¥q 1.11 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100) CAGR

5.2% 172.4 159.5

179.1 166.3

149.9 137.6 123.9 109.9

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

¦ Ä ¦° 5 Á º°

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

190.1 172.9

200.0

2012 150.0

MͲoͲM 100.0

2011

0.3% YͲoͲY

36.1% 50.0

0.0

2010 2011

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°» µ® ¦¦¤nª Ä® n¤¸ ¨ ¨· Á¡·¤É ¹Ê µ ´¥q 1.12a – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ш.з. 2012 387.2

Vehicles 132.2

Transport Equip

105.4

Electrical

85.8

Machineries Electronic

26.2

Metal products

24.8

Food & Bev

22.5

Chemical

20.4

Mineral

19.9

Tobacco

19.9

Rubber&Plastic

15.7

Petroleum

14.9

Paper

14.5

Precision instru

11.8

Basic Mat

10.7

Leather

10.3

Textiles

10.0

Furniture

7.5

Apparel

4.9

Office automate Wood products

-3.4 -23.7

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis

Á º° ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 1.12b – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ш.з. 2012 9.2 -5.6 33.1 1.6 3.1 5.0 10.0 2.2 2.3 59.8 -0.8 -1.8 1.3 2.4 2.4 0.7 0.1 3.0 3.3 -15.9 -15.4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· ¦´ ¢ºÊ ´ªÁ n ¨· · ´¥q 1.13a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч

68.2 67.9

66.5 65.8 65.4

64.2

May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Oct-12

´ Â¨³ µ °» µ® ¦¦¤ ¨· Á · Îµ¨´ µ¦ ´¥q 1.13b – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ ¥´¤¯º ± % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч, д.ѕ. 2012 Vehicles Precision instru Electrical Chemical Transport Equip Petroleum Paper Electronic Mineral Rubber&Plastic Machineries Metal products Food & Bev Basic Mat Office automate Textiles Tobacco Apparel Furniture Leather Wood products

118.5 117.0 110.3 85.0 74.4 72.3 71.9 71.8 71.7 68.6 67.7 62.5 57.7 51.6 44.1 43.1 39.8 39.4 36.1 30.5 17.3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦³Á «Å ¥¤¸ µ¦ ¥µ¥ ´ª ° ¨ ¨· °» ´ nª ¸ n° ® oµ ¸ É ¦³ ´ ®µ ÎÊµ nª¤ ´¥q 1.14 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, јҕѥѝѫч Thailand Ͳ Oct China Ͳ Oct Taiwan Ͳ Feb Indonesia Ͳ Sep Malaysia Ͳ Sep Pakistan Ͳ Sep Russia Ͳ Oct

1.8

US Ͳ Oct

1.7

South Korea Ͳ Sep

0.7

Australia Ͳ Q2

0.5 -0.4

India Ͳ Sep Singapore Ͳ Oct

-2.2

Euro Area Ͳ Sep

-2.3 -3.0

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

-3.8

Brazil Ͳ Sep Japan Ͳ Sep Source: The Economist

-8.1

µ® ¦¦¤¼ ¸É » Ä ¦° ¨nµ» Á¤º°É Á ¸¥

36.1 9.6 8.4 7.6 4.8 4.0

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¨ ¨· £µ Á ¬ ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê °¥nµ ¤µ Ä nª

´¥q 1.10 – ³ · ´¥ §¶ ¢´ Â « ¥ (2005 = 100) CAGR

2.9%

106.7

113.1 110.2 111.8

100.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a

¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

118.4

200.0

112.2

YͲoͲY 5.4% MͲoͲM Ͳ1.6%

150.0

2012 100.0

2011 50.0

0.0

2010 2011

and Cooperatives

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

´ ¸ µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Á° ¦´ ´ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê µ Á Ä ¸ ¸Ê ´¥q 1.15 – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ Â¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

3.1%

105.9

111.4

118.1

126.0 121.9 124.1

130.5

127.1

02-Avg 03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 1

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

Source: Bank of Thailand

Á º° n° Â¨³¥´ Á · Ã °¥nµ Â È Â¦

134.1

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 150.0

2012 138.9

10-Avg 11-Avg

145.0

140.0

2011 135.0

130.0

MͲoͲM 0.4% YͲoͲY

9.2% 125.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Á · Ã °¥nµ ´ªÉ ¹ Ä nª 10 Á Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä Á º° . . ´¥q 1.16a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 10 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2012 61.5

Passenger Car (Unit)

56.7

Commercial Car (Unit) 19.0

NGV (kg.) LPG (litre)

14.7

Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)

13.4

Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)

11.2

HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)

10.7

Diesel (litre)

7.9

Benzene & Gasohol (litre)

3.4

Motocycle (Unit)

3.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

º° Â¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê Â¨³¦µ¥ n µ¥nª Ä® n ´¥q 1.16b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ш.з. 2012 11.5 -1.0 1.1 2.0 -1.7 8.8 5.5 1.9 3.8 -10.8

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ ¸ µ¦¨ » Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä Á º° . .®¨´ ³¨

´¥q 1.17 – ³ · ´¥§ º Â¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

6.1%

169.6 172.2 171.9 154.4

178.0 156.6

132.4 118.3

02-Avg 03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand

¨° ´ª¨ Ä nª n° ® oµ

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 300.0

250.0

2012

201.9

186.4

10-Avg 11-Avg

2011 200.0

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM

0.9% YͲoͲY

16.4%

50.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥ µ¦¨ » Á° Ä ¸ 2012 Á · Ã ´ª¨ oµ ´¥q 1.18a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 10 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2012

Domestic commercial car sales (unit)

41.5

Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)

21.8

Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)

Domestic Cement sales (ton)

Construction Area permitted (sqm)

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

10.2

8.8

2.7

Ã °¥nµ ´ªÉ ¹ Â¤o µ ¦µ¥ n µ¥ ³Á¦·¤É ³¨°

´¥q 1.18b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ш.з. 2012

-2.4

0.6

-4.3

1.6

5.8

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ µ .Á¡·¤É ¹Ê 7% Ä Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª ј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

11,331

9,460

9,112 8,547

8,048

4,853

05FY

Source: BOT

06FY

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

nª 9 Á º° Â¦ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ nª

´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 9,000 8,000 7,000

7,778

11FY

6,000 5,000

2012

2011

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

F M A M J

S O N D

24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¼¨ nµÃ ¦ µ¦¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ µ .Ä

´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

351 297 236

08FY

09FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

10FY

nª 9 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê 70%

. ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯

433 396

11FY

255

2011/9M

2012/9M

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¸ É »n Á È ¦³Á « ¸¤É µ¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ Ä Å ¥

´¥q 5.16 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьлѥдєѬјзҕѥјкъѫьъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Others

20%

17%

USA ANIEs

3% 6%

10%

ASEAN

15%

12% 12%

Europe

23% 27%

Japan

35% 22%

08FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis

09FY

¥¤µ ¸É »

. ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯

9% 23% 3% 6% 6%

27% 2% 7%

4% 7% 8% 8%

8% 17%

64% 44%

10FY

49%

11FY

2012/9M 26

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ®µ¦·¤ ¦´¡¥r¢ºÊ ´ª°¸ ¦´Ê Ä Á º° .¥.

´¥q 1.19a – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 9 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2012

Condo unit registered

15.3

New housing unit

5.5

Value of land transaction

Constr. Area in municipal

-6.6

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

´¥q 1.19b – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.ѕ. 2012

16.1

-28.2

4.9

9.6

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

µ¦n °° ° Å ¥Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä nª ° ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oªÃ ¥¤¸· oµÁ ¬ ¦Á È ´ª nª ® ´¥q 5.05a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ §º£ m ¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, нњҕ к 10 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2012 Total export Other export Mining Petroleum Automotive Metal ReͲexports Toiletries Photo instru Agro products Forestry Machinery Other manufacturing Chemicals Jewellery PetroͲchemical Electrical Optical instru Electronics Furniture Fishery Aircrafts Apparels Footware Agriculture

3.5 21.6 21.2 21.1 20.2 15.4 14.1 10.0 8.4 7.7 6.8 6.0 5.0 4.4 3.8 0.4 0.2 -1.9 -2.0 -2.3 -3.0 -6.6 -11.7 -19.5 -21.5

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

10 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ Á ¸¥ ´ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ®¨´ ´¥q 5.05b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ´¥¬m ¯¯ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь Total export Automotive Petroleum Agro products Other export Metal Machinery Other manufacturing Mining Chemicals Toiletries Jewellery Photo instru Forestry PetroͲchemical Electrical ReͲexports Furniture Optical instru Fishery Footware Aircrafts Electronics Apparels Agriculture

3.5 2.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -2.3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¥¼Ã¦Ã Â¨³ ¸ É »n Á È ¨µ µ¦n °° ¸ÁÉ

´¥q 5.07a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ ¥²Â ª §´¤ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч ᪛ 5.3

᪛ 5.9

᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.

Middle East

4.9

5.4

5.7

5.0

14.1

13.2

11.9

11.3

11.8

11.3

10.3

10.5

12.7

12.2

11.7

18.4

18.1

100% =

Japan NAFTA Rest of the world

14.1 14.5

16.6

East Asia exͲJapan

19.4

18.3

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

21.3

22.5

21.3

23.0

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11F

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

È ´ ®µÄ ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 5.07b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ ¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯ 10 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2012 ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѨѰ ѷ ј Җњ 7 (Trillion)

12.8%

Middle East

Rest of the world

7.6%

NAFTA

6.8%

ASEAN

6.2%

East Asia ex Japan

2.4%

Japan

-0.3%

-10.7%

FY 30

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

· oµ » Á È ´ ´¥®¨´ Ä µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê °

´¥q 5.09a – ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ´£ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 10 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2012

10.4

Total import

Capital goods

18.3

Consumer goods

16.5

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

2.0

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

Others

-2.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

µ¦ ÎµÁ oµÄ nª 10 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸

5.6

´¥q 5.09b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь

10.4

Total import

5.4

Capital goods

3.1

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

1.3

Consumer goods

0.8

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

Others

-0.3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¨»n¤ª´ » · Á È ´ nª ®¨´ Ä µ¦ ÎµÁ oµ · oµ » ¤¸ ´ nª Á¡·¤É ¹Ê °¥nµ ¤µ ´¥q 5.08 – ¬³ ¬m© ´¥ Ï´Â n´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч Ѯ 4.9

Ѯ 6.0

Ѯ 4.6

Others

6.7

8.0

7.8

Capital goods

20.4

19.3

22.3

Intermediate – NonͲFuel

47.5

44.8

43.0

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

18.4

20.7

18.6

Consumer goods

7.0

7.1

8.3

07FY

08FY

09FY

100% =

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

´Ê ®¤ Â nÄ nª 10Á º° Â¦ ° ¸

Ѯ 5.9

Ѯ 7.0

Ѯ 6.5

10.2

12.4

10.5

21.3

24.2

44.0

40.0

37.9

17.4

18.9

19.6

7.5

7.8

10FY

11FY

12/10MO

20.9

(Trillion)

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê 10% Ä nª 1

´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ј ҖѥьзіѤкѸ

CAGR

6.6%

13.8 11.7 10.8

14.5

14.6

14.1

11.5

10.0

02FY 03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY Source: Department of Tourism

10 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2012

³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ ¤¯ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 19.2

15.9

Y 10FY 11FY

25.0

20.0

2011

15.0

10.0

2012

5.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ nª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª µ¤´ µ ·Å¤nÁ ¨¸¥É ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª µ Á°Á ¸¥ .°.¤¸ ´ nª ¼ Á ·

´¥q 5.19 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´ ¯ ³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьеѠкъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Rest of world

14.0

14.3

15.3

Americas

6.4

6.2

6.0

Europe

27.0

27.3

28.7

East Asia

52.6

52.1

50.0

07FY

08FY

09FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis

Â ¨ ¤µ ´ Ä ¦³¥³®¨´ Ã ¥ ¦¹ É ¤µÃ ¥ ¨° ©Ã m ´£¬³ ´ ¶

15.6

14.7

14.4

5.3

5.0

4.8

27.9

26.5

24.2

51.2

53.8

56.5

10FY

11FY

2012/10M 34

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

°´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥°ºÉ ÇÁ¦·¤É ¸ É ³ ¦´ ¨ ¨ ¤µ Á º° . . ´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Ä¤ ´¤ . 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% Nov-12

Dec-11

´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Â ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q 1.0% Max

0.9% 0.8%

Min

0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%

Nov-11

Source: Bank of Thailand

0.3% Oct-12

µ¤ µ¦¨ °´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ¥Ä

´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë n´£ ¹ ¥²©m´ ´ ´¥

Nov-11

3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% Oct-12

´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Â ¶ »§n » n´ ³Ë · . ´ ¶ ¤q Max

8.0% 7.5%

Min 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% Nov-11

5.0% Oct-12

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

£µ »¦ · Á ¨¸¥É ¤µ¤° Ã¨ Ä Â n ¸°¸ ¦´Ê Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 1.21a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê º¥ ¶ * 100

Better 53.8

51.5

51.7

50.2

49.9

52.1

Worse

0 May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Source: Bank of Thailand

Ä ³ ¸£É µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¤° Ä Â n¦µo ¥ ´¥q 1.21b – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£** 200

Better 106.0

102.7

98.7

100

98.5

94.1

93.0

Worse

0 May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¼ o ¦·Ã£ ¤° Ã¨ Ä Â n¦µo ¥ o°¥¨

´¥q 1.20a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê »n ¥¶Ä¢ 200

· ¸Ë ч Җѥьіѥѕѳч ҖѲьѠьѥзш 100

Ã¤m§

0 Nov-11 Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

(*) єѨзѥҕ ѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 0-200 щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѝ ҕ кѬ дњҕѥ 100 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣчѨе щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэ 100 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵѳєҕѯ щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 100 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣ

Source: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, UTCC

ч Җѥьдѥіўѥкѥь ѱчѕіњє

May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

еѩь Ѹ ўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэчѨ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјк ўіѪѠъікшѤњѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэюѥьдјѥк ѣѰѕҕјкўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэѳєҕч Ѩ

Oct-12

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

£µ¡´ r² ¦´ ¨ ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · ¨ ° ¸ ® oµÁ®¨º° 4.7% ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 7.00

6.50

The Economist poll NESDB

6.00

BOT FPO

5.50

5.00

4.50

4.00 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econom

Ã ° ¸ ¸Ê ¨ Á®¨º° 5.5% nª . ¦´

ist

´¥q 1.03b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 7.00

6.50

6.00

5.50

FPO NESDB The Economist poll

5.00

BOT 4.50

4.00 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12

Forecast as of, month ending 41

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Îµ®¦´ ¸ 2012 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ ¸ Á nµ ´Ê ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 1/12/2012

7.7

China Thailand

6.0

Indonesia

6.0 5.8

India 5.1

Malaysia 4.2

Pakistan

3.7

Russia

3.4

Australia 2.4

Singapore South Korea

2.2

Japan

2.1

Hong Kong

1.6

Brazil

1.5

Taiwan Euro Area -0.5

Source: The Economist

1.3

¦ rªnµ ³Á · Ã ¼ ¹ 6% ¹É Á È ¦° Á¡¸¥ ´¥q 1.04b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 1/12/2012

8.5 4.2 6.4 6.5 4.5 3.3 3.7 2.8 4.0 3.4 0.9 1.9 2.2 4.2 2.7 0.0 42

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä Á º° ´¥q 2.7 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч 2.4

02-Avg

2.2

2.1

03-Avg

1.8

04-Avg

0.82

05-Avg

0.81 0.66

0.56

1.5

06-Av

0.7

0.43

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

Mar-

.¥.

1.4

1.0 0.7

07-Avg

0.97

08-Avg

09-Avg

0.67

Apr-12

10-Avg

11-Avg

0.92

-12

1.5

1.4

May-12

Jun-12

0.56

Jul-12

Aug-12

0.63

Sep-12

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ ÎµÉ ¤µ Á¤ ´¥q 2.8 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ Å ¥²Â ª m´ È лѥддѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫч, % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч Thailand Ͳ Sep Singapore Ͳ Q3 South Korea Ͳ Oct Malaysia Ͳ Sep Hong Kong Ͳ Oct

0.6 1.9 2.8 3.2 3.5

China Ͳ Q3

4.1

Japan Ͳ Sep

4.2

Taiwan Ͳ Oct

4.3

Russia Ͳ Oct

Brazil Ͳ Oct

Australia Ͳ Oct

Pakistan Ͳ 2011 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 US Ͳ Oct India Ͳ 2011 Euro Area Ͳ Sep Source: The Economist

°Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ

3 3

.4 6.0 6.1 7.9 9.8 11.6

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¤µ ¹Ê Á®È Å

´¥q 2.1 –¬³£ ¥²¬¶ ¶Î · ·Ê*

0.520

0.513

0.507

1994

1996

1998

0.522

2000

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

o µ ´¤ ¦³· ·Í ¸ ¸É ¸¤É ¸Â ªÃ o¤¨ ¨

0.507

2002

0.493

2004

0.515

2006

0.499

2007

0.485

2009

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÁ¤º°É ¤° Ä °¸ ¤»¤ ´¥q 2.2 – ¬m© Ã m ¥´¤Æ n ´£ §º£ m ¥´¤Æ n ¥n¯¤§² ¯ ¥´¤Æ n ¥² ´ ´ ¶ Top 20% Bottom 20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top 20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second 20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third 20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth 20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom 20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

ÈÁ®È Å oªnµ¤¸¡ ´ µ µ¦ ¸ ¹Ê Â n ÈÅ¤n¤µ ´

13.1

14.6

13.2

12.1

13.9

12.5

11.3

56.1

57.5

55.9

54.9

56.1

54.9

54.2

19.8

20.1

20.2

20.0

20.2

20.1

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.4

12.1

12.4

12.6

7.8

7.3 4.0

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.4

4.2

4.5

4.0

4.4

4.8

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

4.3

998

48 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á « Îµ¨´ ¡´ µ oª¥ ´ o°¥ ªnµ ¦³Á «°¥nµ ¤µÁ¨Á ¸¥ ®¦º° ¸ ´¥q 2.3 – ©´£Â§¹Ê¯£§ËÏ´ n´ ¥´¤Æ nÅ Ä§ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ¥² ´ ¥ ·Ê¥©¤ ·Ê¬º 20% Ã¥ Â ·¤ ³ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ·Ê ·Ê¬º Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic

29.7 27.8 26.7 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis

ªµ¤Á®¨º°É ¤¨ÎÊµ oµ ¦µ¥Å o ° Å ¥ È¥ ´

20%, d 2011 ¥¹¯§m´¬º

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

Î µ ª ¥µ ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¨ ¨ Ä ¦³¥³®

´¥q 2.4a – Â¬n ©´£¤´ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠьшҕѠзь 1,678

1,386

2006

Source: NESDB

1,579

1,586

2008

2009

1,443

2007

2010

®¨´

´¥q 2.4b – Ï´ © »n¤´ ј Җѥьзь 6.10

2006

5.40

2007

5.80

2008

5.30

5.08

2009

2010

8.1%

7.8%

2009

2010

´¥q 2.4c – ¬³ ¬m© »n¤´ % еѠкюіѣнѥдіъѤкѸ ўєч

9.6%

2006

8.5%

9.0%

2007

2008

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

®¨µ¥ ¦³Á «Ä Á°Á ¸¥Â¨³Ä °µÁ ¸¥ ¥´ ¤ ´¥q 2.5 – ©´£¤´ Å Ä§

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖъѨє ѝч ѷ іѨ ѥѕѳч ҖшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 2 чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢшҕѠњѤь шҕѠлѼѥьњьюіѣ Congo, Dem. Rep.

Madagascar 84.5

Nigeria Ethiopia

77.6

Bangladesh

76.5 72.8

TimorͲLeste

68.7

India

66.0

Lao PDR

60.2

Pakistan

57.3

Nepal

53.3

Cambodia

46.1

Indonesia

43.4

Vietnam

41.5

Philippines 31.3

South Africa China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

Sri Lanka

29.1 21.4

Iraq Colombia

15.8

Source: The World Bank

¤¸ ´ nª ¥µ ¼

ѣнѥді, юѨ јҕѥѝѫч 95.2

92.6

15.4

Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB

12.9

Peru

12.7 10.8

Brazil 8.0

Iran, Islamic Rep. 5.2

Mexico Thailand Turkey

4.6 4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

Slovak Republic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

Russian Federation

0.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Å ¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o °o ¥ ªnµ ¸ ¤µ ªnµ °· Á ¸¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ¹ ªnµµ¤Á nµ ´¥q 2.6 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ³© 2011, чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Norway Qatar Luxembourg Switzerland Denmark Sweden Netherlands United States Finland Austria Belgium Canada Japan Germany Singapore France United Arab Emirates Ireland United Kingdom Italy Hong Kong SAR, China Iceland Spain Israel Greece

Source: The World Bank

Rank (from

88,890 1 80,440 2 78,130 3 76,380 4 60,390 5 53,230 6 49,730 7 48,450 8 48,420 9 48,300 10 46,160 11 45,560 12 45,180 13 43,980 14 42,930 15 42,420 16 40,760 17 38,580 18 37,780 19 35,330 20 35,160 21 35,020 22 30,990 23 28,930 24 25,030 25

Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É °¥¼nÁ¨È o°¥ Â n ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o µ Rank

m 166)

Czech Republic Hungary Brazil Turkey Argentina Mexico Malaysia South Africa Colombia China Thailand Ecuador Ukraine Indonesia Iraq Egypt, Arab Rep. Sri Lanka Philippines Bhutan India Nigeria Vietnam Lao PDR Cambodia Bangladesh

18,520 12,730 10,720 10,410 9,740 9,240 8,420 6,960 6,110 4,930 4,420 4,140 3,120 2,940 2,640 2,600 2,580 2,210 2,070 1,410 1,200 1,260 1,130 830 770

29 36 46 47 49 51 53 65 69 78 83 85 100 103 108 109 110 113 115 122 124 127 130 139 142

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥Å o ¦´ªÁ¦º° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¦Èª ªnµ¦µ¥ n µ¥¦ª¤ Îµ¦ª ¨nµ» Ä ¸ 2011 ´¥q 2.9a – ¥´¤Æ n ¥³©Â¥¹¯ Â §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

14,963

2004

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

20,903

2009

23,236

2011

´¥q 2.9b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ Â §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

16,205

2009

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

17,403

2011

¤ ´Ê ¦³¥³Áª¨µ ¨° ® ¸Ê ¸¨É ¨ Ä µ¦ ´¥q 2.9c – ·Ë¬¶ Â §·Ê¤ m¯ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ эѥъ

104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,699

134,900

2009

2011

´¥q 2.9b – ¥²¤²Â©§´ §¯ ·ËÂ §·Ê¤* юѨ 3.3 2.8 2.3

2.4 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

Á · Á¢o ° ´ªÉ Å Â¨³Á · Á¢o °¡ºÊ µ ¨ ¨ Ä Á ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 4.00% 3.4%

3.50% 3.00% 2.6%

2.8%

2.7%

1.8%

3.3%

Head line

2.7%

2.50% 2.00%

1.9%

1.8%

Core*

1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12 Nov-12

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

Á º° ¡.¥.

´¥q 3.07b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ¥´¤ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ё.ѕ. 2012 14.4

Energy 7.6

Tobacco & alcohol Transport & Commu

4.1

Prepared food at home

4.1

Housing & furnishing

3.4

Veg & fruit

3.2

Non alcoholic beverage

2.7

Food away from home

2.7

Seasoning

2.4

Rice

1.3

Medical care

1.2

Apparel and footware

1.0

Recreation & Education

0.4

Meat

-0.4

Eggs & milk

-5.3

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° µ °· Á ¸¥Â¨³ µ ¸ µ ¦³Á « nµ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³©Ê Ä§ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ

Latest

India Ͳ Oct Pakistan Ͳ Oct Russia Ͳ Oct

5.4

Brazil Ͳ Oct

4.6

Indonesia Ͳ Oct Singapore Ͳ Oct

4.0

Hong Kong Ͳ Oct

3.8 2.7

Thailand Ͳ Nov Euro Area Ͳ Oct

2.5

Taiwan Ͳ Oct

2.4

US Ͳ Oct

2.2

South Korea Ͳ Oct

2.1

Australia Ͳ Q3

2.0 1.7

China Ͳ Oct

1.3

Malaysia Ͳ Oct Japan Ͳ Sep Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-0.3

Ç¨oª ¤¸° ´ ¦µÁ · Á¢o ° ¸ É ÎµÉ

2012* 9.8

9.3

7.7

10.0

6.6

5.1 5.4

4.4 4.5 4.1 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.8 2.8 1.7 0.0

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · Á¢o °Ä ¦³ ´ ¼ o ¨· ¨ ¨ Ä Á º° ¡.¥.

´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0%

0.7%

0.6%

0.5% 0.1%

0.1%

0.0% -0.4% -0.5% -1.0% Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

´¥q 3.09b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ ¥´¤¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ё.ѕ. 2012 Fishing Crop Food Mechinery Metal Transport equip Pulp & paper Textile Chemical Other manu goods Wood Leather & footware Forestry Electrical equip Petroluem products NonͲmetallic mineral Energy Basic metals Livestocks Rubber & plastic

3.4 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -1.2 -2.7 -2.8 -3.8 -5.5

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

´ nª Á · ° » ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥rÁ¡·¤É

´¥q 3.04 – ¯³ ¥´¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѝь ѧ ъіѤёѕҙѯѝѕ Ѩѷ к ѝч 20.0% 16.0%

13.7%

14.0%

2002

2003

13.0%

14.2%

2005

12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0%

16.0% 15.8% 15.6% 15.4% 15.2% 15.0% 14.8% 14.6% 14.4%

15.3%

2004

15.4%

15.3% 15.2%

Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12

Feb-12 M

15.1%

Source: Bank of Thailand

¤ ¹Ê n°Á º°É Ä Á º° .¥.

¤q

4.5%

15.4%

2006

2007

15.2%

Mar-12

14.1%

2008

16.1%

16.2%

2009

2010

15.1%

2011

15.9% 15.7% 15.3% 15.1%

15.0%

14.9%

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

60 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä oµ ¦·¤ Á · ¼ o Ê ´ ®¤

´¥q 3.03a – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m ÅnÂ ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 592 477

04YE

05YE

445

458

06YE

07YE

401

08YE

380

09Y

´¥q 3.03b – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m ÅnÂ ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѕѠчѯкѧьдѬ ҖъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

10.73% 8.16%

04YE

05YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

7.47%

06YE

7.31%

07YE

5.29%

4.85

08YE

09Y

¤µ Â n¨ ¨ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ Á È ´ nª n°¥°

´¥Â ¶

317

10YE

269

11YE

274

266

268

2012/Q1 2012/Q2 2012/Q3

´¥Â ¶

3.60%

10YE

2.74%

11YE

2.68%

2.55%

2.47%

2012/Q1 2012/Q2 2012/Q3 61

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

· Á ºÉ° ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥r ¥µ¥ ´ª n°Á º°É Á¨È o°¥ ´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶ Â ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

88.8%

89.3%

89.9%

89.6%

85% 80% Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12

Source: Bank of Thailand

Feb-12 M

° Ä ³ ¸É £µ¡ ¨n° Ä ¦³ ¨ ¨

MͲoͲM

0.9% YͲoͲY

14.2% r-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

92.4%

91.9%

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

90.8%

91.4%

´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q

90.2%

Mar-12

91.7%

92.8%

Aug-12 Sep-12

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¸®¨µ¥ ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸° ´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ ¸ÂÉ o ¦· ´¥q 3.05 – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤ Ë ·ÊÃ n ¥¶ ц њѤьъѨѷ 1/12/2012

൞

3M riskͲfree interest rates

9.5

Pakistan 8.2

India

7.6

Russia

7.1

Brazil 4.9

Indonesia 3.8

China

3.4

Australia

3.2

Malaysia

2.8

South Korea

2.4

Thailand Taiwan

0.9

Hong Kong

0.5

0.3

Singapore

0.3

Euro Area

0.2

Japan

0.2

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

· ¨ ¦ª¤ ´Ê ¦³Á «Å ¥ oª¥

Expected 2012 inflation*

Real interest rates

10.0

-0.5

9.3

-1.1

5.1

2.5

5.4

1.7

4.4

0.5

2.8

1.0

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.5

2.3

0.5

3.1

-0.7

2.1

-1.2 4.1

2.1

-1.8 4.5

2.5 0.0

-3.7

-4.2 -2.3 0.2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° ¡.¥. ´ ¸ SET Á¡·¤É ¹Ê 1.9% ¡¦o° nµ ¦³Á « ´¥q 3.06a – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § Å ³ · SET % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ

5.8%

2.7%

2.3%

2.3% 0.0%

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

1.9% Nov-12

´¥q 3.06b – £»§ m´ ´¥§ º ¬²¬£ ¯ m´ ´ ¶ SET Ѱјѣ MAI, шѤкѸ Ѱшҕш ҖьюѨ , ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12 M-12 J-12 J-12 A-12 S-12 O-12 N-12 D-12

Source: SET, The Economist

°¤ ´ µ¦Å®¨ ¨´ ¤µ ° Á · ¨ » µ ´¥q 3.06c – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § Å ³ · ³ ´ ¬¶Ë d 2011 ц њѤьъѨѷ 28/11/2012 44.7%

Pakistan (KSE) 26.8%

Thailand (SET)

24.5%

Germany (DAX)

21.9%

India (BSE)

17.8%

HK (Hang Seng) US (NAScomp)

14.8%

Singapore (STI)

13.8%

Indonesia (JSX)

12.6%

US (S&P 500)

12.1%

France (CAC 40)

11.2%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

10.9%

Japan (Nikkei 225)

10.1% 8.6%

Australia (All Ord.) US (DJIA)

6.3%

Taiwan (TWI)

5.1%

Malaysia (KLSE)

5.0%

S Korea (KOSPI)

4.8%

UK (FTSE 100)

4.1%

China (SSEB, $ terms)

-2.1%

China (SSEA)-10.3%

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

¸ 2011 ¤¸ µ¦ µ »¨¨ ¨

´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ Â£¹¯Ê Â ·¤ ³ · · · чѫјѯкѧьѲькэюіѣєѥц чѫјѯкѧьѝч 1.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1% -0.5% -0.6%

-2.0%

04FY

05FY

06FY

-1.7%

07FY

CORRECTION: In the past few months we had shown in this chart t government revenue INSTEAD OF NOMINAL GDP. W Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

-0.3% -0.7%

-1.1% -1.1%

-0.9%

% -2.6%

-4.0% -4.4%

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

the figures of budget and cash balance as percentage of We have duly corrected and sincerely apologize.

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä nª 10 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2012 »¨ ¹ ªnµ 3 Â ¨oµ µ ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

¥´¤¥³

877

º§ ¥²£´

1,013

-79

1,109

1,241

-36

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

110

-956

-996

-1,109

-1,277 -1,280

¥´¤ m´¤

-1,629 -1,598

-1

02FY 03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 0 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¦³¤µ o°¥ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª

º§ ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 1,751

1,902

100.0 50.0

,484

2011

0.0 -50.0

-75

-28

-100.0

364 -150.0 -200.0

2012 -250.0

1,849 -1,825

-1,930

-300.0 -350.0 -400.0

9FY 10FY 11FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¥ Áªo Á¡¸¥ ¸ 2010 »¨Á · ´ »¨

´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ Ã§² º§Â ¶ ¬ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬ 110 16 24

8 -36 -45

-79 -77

-1

02FY

03FY

04FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

05FY

06FY

¦³¤µ ¤´ ³Å¤n nµ ´ ¤µ ´

-28

-75

-100 -96

-96

-144 74

-266

-292

-319

-364 -401

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

'12/10mo

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦´ µ¨nª Ä® nÄ Ã¨ ¼ µ µ¦ rªnµ ³

´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È зѥчўєѥѕѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012 South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Russia Australia China Indonesia Brazil Taiwan Euro Area Thailand Malaysia India Pakistan

-6

-7.0

Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-9.5

µ »¨ ¦³¤µ Ä ¸ 2012

È 2.1 1.1 0.9 -0.3 -0.7 -2.3 -2.4 -2.5 -2.8 -3.3 -3.8 -4.6 -6.0

6.6

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³Á¡·¤É ¼ ¹Ê Ä ¸ ¸Ê ´Ê Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ ® ¸Ê ¸¦É ´ µ¨ ¼Ão ¥ ¦ ´¥q 4.5a – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² ј Җѥьј Җѥьэѥъ 6.0

5.0

4.0 Public debt from State Enterprises 3.0

2.0

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

Sep-1

12%

10%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

· Â¨³´ nª n° ¸ ¸¡¸ µÁ® »®¨´ ¤µ µ ´¥q 4.5b – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ 50% 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35% 30% 25%

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

20% 15% 10% 5%

Direct Government debt

2008

External debt as percent of total

2009

2010

2011

Sep-12

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³ ° Å ¥Å¤n °º ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ´¥q 4.6 – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Å Ä§ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ ,Ѩ 2011 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч 1 Zimbabwe 2 Japan 4 Greece 5 Lebanon 6 Iceland 9 Italy 10 Singapore 11 Ireland 13 Portugal 15 Belgium 17 Egypt 18 France 20 Canada 21 Hungary 22 Germany 23 UK 24 Bhutan 28 Bahrain 29 Israel 30 Austria 32 United States 33 Spain 38 Netherlands 40 Jordan 42 Pakistan Source: CIA fact book

2 208 165 137 130 120 118 107 103 100 86 86 84 83 82 80 79 75 74 72 69 68 64 61 60

¸É ¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¤µ ¦ µ µ µ µ · Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 31

44 Vietnam 47 Brazil 48 Malaysia 49 Switzerland 51 India 53 Philippines 56 Norway 67 UAE 69 China 72 Argentina 73 Turkey 78 Thailand 82 Mexico 86 Sweden 87 Bangladesh 91 South Africa 93 Taiwan 95 New Zealand 96 Korea, South 100 Australia 108 Indonesia 121 Iran 122 Hong Kong 123 Saudi Arabia 126 Russia

57 54 54 52 52 49 48 44 44 43 42 41 38 37 37 36 35 34 33 30 25 12 10 9 9

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨ

дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѕѤкѱшѳч ҖѳєҕчѯѨ ъҕѥъѨз ѷ њі ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱш

ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

»¨ µ¦ Îµ¦³Á · ¸ ¹Ê Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ Á ¨º°É ¥oµ¥ » ¸ É ¸ ¹Ê ´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙ 31.3 24.7

24.1

17.1

1.2 07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

11FY

3.3

12/10mo

¸Ê µÁ® »®¨´ µ »¨ ¦· µ¦Â¨³ µ¦ º§ ´¥ n´ (F.O.B)

32.6 26.6

29.8

17.3 07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

17.0

7.4

11FY

12/10mo

º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥´¤Æ n¬º ¶ -11.0

-15.2

-10.7

-11.1

-5.8

-19.7

+ 07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12/10mo

21.3 2.2

1.4

1.7 -4.7

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12/10mo

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2012 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q3

Taiwan Ͳ Q3 6.8%

Malaysia Ͳ Q3

5.4%

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

4.6%

Russia Ͳ Q3 China Ͳ Q3

2.7%

South Korea Ͳ Oct

2.1%

Japan Ͳ Sep

1.3%

Euro Area Ͳ Sep

0.7%

Thailand Ͳ Q3

-0.6%

Pakistan Ͳ Q3

-1.7%

Indonesia Ͳ Q3

-2.4%

US Ͳ Q2

-2.7%

Brazil Ͳ Oct

-2.8%

Australia Ͳ Q2

-3.7%

India Ͳ Q2 Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-4.3%

ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ nª Ä® nÁ È Á«¦¬ ·

Last 12 months, USD Billion 16.4%

46.0

9.5%

45.7 19.1 8.7 102.9 208.3 41.3 71.6 96.4 2.2 -2.9 -18.5 -477.8 -52.2 -42.1 -77.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

»¨ µ¦ oµÄ ¦¼ Á · µ · ¨ °¥nµ ® ´ Ä

´¥q 5.03 – º§ ´¥ n´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

593 432 257

-111 -275

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

-515 12/10MO

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition du (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balan (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balan

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê Export**

5,302

07FY

൞

5,851

08FY

6,113

6,708

5,195

09FY

10FY

11FY

5,944

12/10MO

Import*** 6,983 5,962 4,870

07FY

5,857

6,459

4,602

08FY

09FY

10FY

ue to few adjustments nce of payment and exchange rate conversion nce of payment and exchange rate conversion

11FY

12/10MO

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® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¸ ¸Ê ´Ê Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 120 80 40 0 03YE

04YE

05YE

06YE

07Y

´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ

40.3%

40.9%

03YE

04YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

37.0%

38.5%

05YE

06YE

35.4%

07YE

Â¨³´ nª n° ¸ ¸¡¸

08YE

09YE

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

12/2Q

35.2%

34.2%

37.0%

10YE

11YE

12/2Q

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´ nª ° ¨¼ ® ¸Ê £µ ¦´ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 5.11a – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

96%

08YE

92%

09YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

13%

15%

18%

87%

85%

82%

10YE

11YE

12/2Q

44%

56%

08YE

09YE

50%

10YE

46%

49%

54%

51%

11YE

12/2Q

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ªµ¤µ¤µ¦ Ä µ¦ Îµ¦³® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «

418%

340%

330%

360% 296%

257%

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

11YE

12/2Q

° Å ¥¥´ Å¤n nµÁ È ¸ É ´ ª¨

10.3%

7.7%

07FY

08FY

7.3%

09FY

3.7%

10FY

11FY

3.3%

12/2Q

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Á · Îµ¦° ¦³®ªnµ ¦³Á «¥´ ¤¸Á®¨º°Á¢º °

42.1

49.8

52.1

03YE

04YE

05YE

67.0

06YE

87.5

07YE

6.7

6.4

03YE

04YE

5.3

05YE

Җ јзҕѥьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯмјѨѕ (*) ѲнєѬ ѷ 12 ѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫч Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

6.2

06YE

7.5

07YE

째

172.1

175.1

181.4

10YE

11YE

Oct-12

9.2

9.0

11YE

Oct-12

138.4 111.0

08YE

09YE

12.4

11.3

7.4

08YE

09YE

10YE

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nµÁ · µ ¥´ Â È nµ ¹Ê Ä Á º° ¡.¥. ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´ 2007 = 100

104.0

103.0

102.0

101.0

100.0 99.0 98.0 Dec-11

97.0 Nov-12

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

´¥q 5.17b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § ¯ ¯³ ¥´Ã§ Â §·Ê¤ % ъѨѯѷ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ц њѤьъѨѷ 30/11/2012 PHP Ͳ 0.764

4.8

MXN Ͳ 2.3819

4.8 4.3

SGD Ͳ 25.3963

KRW Ͳ 0.0285

TWD Ͳ 1.061

2.8

MYR Ͳ 10.2422

2.5

AUD Ͳ 32.2957

2.2

GBP Ͳ 49.5921

1.1

CNY Ͳ 5.0116

0.5

VND Ͳ 0.0015

0.0

3.6

-1.7

USD Ͳ 30.8394

-4.1

EUR Ͳ 40.1634 INR Ͳ 0.6009

-6.8

JPY Ͳ 37.6722

-6.9

IDR Ͳ 3.4028

-8.5

Baht appreciates

Baht depreciates 80