121231 emag thai by Ake Saroj

Charting Thailand’s Economy® www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com 11th issue: มกราคม 2556

ตรวจสุขภาพ เศรษฐกิจไทย รายเดือน • • • • • • •

การฟนตัวของเศรษฐกิจจริง 2012 ปทองของการลงทุน การขาดแคลนแรงงาน ความเชื่อมั่นภาคธุรกิจดีขึ้น งบประมาณขาดดุลเปนประวัติการณ ดุลการคาที่นาเปนหวง และมุมมองดานอื่นๆอยางรอบดาน ภาษาไทย

Charting • • • • • • • • • •

Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

economies

ISSN: 2286‐6132

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Charting Thailand’s Economy® ѯюѶ ь

њѥіѝѥіѠѧѯјѶзъіѠьѧзѝіҙ ѥѕѯчѪѠьіѬюѰээѲўєҕъ Ѩѷ Җ Ѳндіѥђђѧ зєѥѠыѧэѥѕзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ њѥкшјѥчъѫдѵњѤьъѨѷ 5 еѠк ѯчѪѠь

Ѩ ъѨє ѝѼѥўіѤэєѪѠѠѥнё ѷ з Ѩ њѥєлѼѥѯюѶ ьш ҖѠк шѧчшѥєѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьуѥьѣѝњҕ ьўьѩкѷ еѠккѥьѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ зѫцѝѥєѥіщьѼ ѥнѥіҙш Җ еѠкѯіѥѳюѲнѲькѥьеѠкзѫ цѳч ҖъѤьъѨ ѯёѨѕкѰзҕзц ѫ эѠдѰўјҕкъѨє ѷ ѥѰјѣѳєҕ ьѼ ѥѳючѤчѰюјк

Ѫѷ њҕѥдѥішѧчшѥєзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯіѥѯнѠ ѯћіќудѧлѱчѕіњє ѯюѶ ьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѝѼѥзѤръѨл ѷ ѣш ҖѠкєѨ зњѥєзіѠэзјѫєъѫдѵч Җѥь ѰјѣдѶш ҖѠккҕѥѕшҕѠ Ѥ дѥіъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲл ѰшҕѲьѝщѥьдѥіцҙюѤллѫэь ъѨе ѷ ҖѠєѬјъѨѯѷ іѥѳч ҖіѤэдјѤэј ҖьѯдѧьѰјѣюѣюьдѤь ъѤкѸ зњѥєѯўѶьъѤкѸ е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкльъѼѥѲў ҖѕѥдъѨл ѷ ѣ лѤэѲлзњѥє

ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдыѫідѧлўіѪѠяѬ ҖюіѣдѠэдѥі ьѨз ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җзѫц Ѱўјҕке ҖѠєѬјзњѥєіѬ ҖъѨл юіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѥєѯћіќудѧл ўіѪѠ Ѱє ҖдіѣъѤѷкѯюѶ ьъѨѠ ѷ ҖѥкѠѧкюіѣлѼѥ зѠєёѧњѯшѠіҙеѠкзѫцѲьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧл ѳъѕ

ҕ ьѤь ч Җњѕзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлѯнь Ѹ ѯіѥеѠѠѥѝѥьѼ ѥѯѝьѠ њѧыў Ѩ ьѩкѷ ъѨл ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җъҕѥьѯе ҖѥѲлзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳю еѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѳч Җкҕѥѕѵ ѯўєѪѠьѳч ҖѠҕѥьяј шіњлѝѫеѓѥёѯћіќудѧліѥѕѯчѪѠь ъѨѯѷ ь Җь е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкѯюѶ ьёѪь Ѹ уѥь ѯіѥўњѤкњҕѥлѣѯюѶ ьюіѣѱѕньҙѰдҕъѥҕ ьѳч Җ Ѱјѣщ Җѥ ѧ ѳч ҖъѨѷ ъҕѥьѠѕѥдѯіѨѕьіѬ Җѯёѧє ѷ ѯшѧєдѶѯіѨѕьѯнр

ѩ ќѥіњєщѩкяѬ ҖъѨѷ ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдѯіѨѕььѤдћд ѩ ќѥч ҖњѕшьѯѠк ьѨз ћд ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѰўјҕкѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖъѨѷ зѫцлѣѳч ҖёэдѤэњѧыд Ѩ ѥіѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖѰјѣъѼѥ зњѥєѯе ҖѥѲліѣээѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѨѯѷ юѶ ь іѣээѰјѣѝі Җѥкѝіізҙ іњєѳющѩкѱѠдѥѝѲь дѥіѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьзњѥєіѬ ҖѲьўєѬя ҕ Ѭ ҖъѨѝ ѷ ьѲл ѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Charting Thailand’s Economy чѼѥѯьѧьдѥіѱчѕэіѧќѤънѥіҙшѯєзѯдѠіҙлѼѥдѤч

лчъѣѯэѨѕьѯјеъѨѷ 0135555002491 ъѨѠ ѷ ѕѬ:ҕ 19 ўєѬҕ 11, щььјѼѥјѬддѥ шѼѥэјјѼѥјѬддѥ ѠѼѥѯѓѠјѼѥјѬддѥ юъѫєыѥьѨ 12150 Ѥ ъҙ: +662 987 0919, ѱъіѝѥі: +662 987 0917, ѱъіћё Email: admin@chartingthailandeconomy.com

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ѯіѨѕьъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥь, дҕѠьѠѪь ѷ Ѳчзкш ҖѠкдјҕѥњзѼѥњҕѥ ѝњѤѝчѨюѨѲўєҕдэ Ѥ ъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥьъѫдъҕѥь яєўњѤкњҕѥ юѨ 2556 ьѨл Ѹ ѣѯюѶ ьюѨ ъч Ѩѷ Ѡ Ѩ д Ѩ юѨ ўьѩкѷ еѠкъѫдѵъҕѥьѰјѣеѠѲў ҖъҕѥьєѨзњѥє ёѥдѯёѨѕіѯёѪѠ ѷ эііјѫѯюҖ ѥўєѥѕѲчѵдѶшѥєъѨъ ѷ ѥҕ ьѳч ҖшѤкѸ Ѳлѳњ Җ ҕ Ѩ 2556 Ѱј Җњ ѰшҕшњѤ ѯје ѝѼѥўіѤэѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱє ҖњҕѥњѤьъѨѲѷ ьютѧъь ѧ лѣјҕњкѝѬю ѯћіќудѧлъѨѠ ѷ ѠдјҕѥѝѫчѕѤкѠѕѫѰ ҕ зҕѯчѪѠьёїћлѧдѥѕь 2555 окѩѷ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ёѧлѥіцѥ ѠѕҕѥкіѠэч Җѥьшѥєњѧыд Ѩ ѥіюдшѧеѠкѯіѥѰј Җњ ш ҖѠкэѠдњҕѥєѨдѥіђѪѸ ьшѤњъѨч ѷ е Ѩ ь ѩѸ ѷ к ўјѥѕѵѝѼѥьѤдъѨю ѷ іѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшѯѠѥѳњ ҖдѶѯіѧє ѷ юіѤэѯе Җѥ ѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ Ѳдј ҖдѤьѱчѕјҕѥѝѫчѠѕѫъ ҕ Ѩѷ 5.5-5.8% окѩѷ ѠѨдѯёѨѕкѳєҕщкѩ ѝѠкѯчѪѠьѯіѥдѶлѣъіѥэ дѤьѰј ҖњњҕѥшѤњѯјеліѧклѣѯюѶ ьѯъҕѥѲч ѯіѪѠ ѷ къѨщ ѷ Ѡ Ѫ њҕѥѯюѶ ьдіѣѰѝъѨє ѷ д Ѩ ѥіёѬчщѩкѠѕҕѥкєѥдѲьюѨ ъя Ѩѷ ѥҕ ьєѥзклѣўьѨѳєҕё Җь ѯіѪѠ ѷ к AEC окѩѷ ѲьуѥьѣъѨь ѷ ш ѧ ѕѝѥіѰўҕкьѨѯѸ юѶ ьяѬ ҖѯѐҖ ѥшѧчшѥєзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј ҖњлѩкеѠѠьѫрѥшёѥъҕѥьѳюъѼѥзњѥєіѬ ҖлѤддѤэѯћіќудѧл еѠкюіѣѯъћѯёѪѠ ѷ ьэ ҖѥьѲь ASEAN дѤьч ҖњѕѲь cover story еѠкѯјҕєьѨѸ яєўњѤкњҕѥњѧыд Ѩ ѥіеѠкѯіѥлѣнњҕ ѕѲў ҖъҕѥьюіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѧчшѥє ѯћіќудѧлѳч ҖѳєҕєѥддѶь ҖѠѕ Ѱј ҖњёэдѤьѯчѪѠьўь ҖѥзіѤэ

ѧ ѝѥѱін зкзѥюіѣѯѝіѧуѝь эііцѥыѧдѥіэіѧўѥі Editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°· Ã ¸Á ¸¥¤¸ µ Á«¦¬ · Ä® n ¸É 2011 GDP

Popu

US$ Million, PPP

Million

Indonesia

1,125,000

Thailand Malaysia

602,200

463,700

Philippines

391,100

Singapore

314,900

Vietnam

300,000

Myanmar

82,680

Cambodia

33,820

Brunei

21,030

Laos

17,410

Source: CIA fact book

5.4

15.0 0.4 6.6

» Â n · Ã ¦r¦ª¥ ¸É » Cover story

lation

Per capita income

persons

US$ per person 248.6

67.1

4,525 8,976

15,891 103.8

3,769 58,821

91.5 54.6

3,278 1,515 2,262 51,445 2,643

¥ Áªo Á¡¸¥ ¡¤nµ ¦³Á «°µÁ ¸¥ nª ´ Ã¨

Brunei Da

M Source: World Bank

ª Ä® nÁ · ¦³Á « oµ µ¥ Cover story

DEGREE OF OPENNESS Trade / GDP, 2010 or latest, %

Singapore

394.1

Malaysia

176.8

Vietnam

165.3

Thailand

135.1

Cambodia

113.6

arussalam Lao PDR

hilippines

105.9 77.2 71.4

Indonesia

47.6

Myanmar

0.2

°µÁ ¸¥ Á È £¼¤·£µ ¸ÁÉ · Ã ¼ ¤µ Â¨³Ä ° µ REAL GDP GROWTH RATE

Real yearͲonͲyear growth, 1994Ͳ2011 actual, 2012Ͳ2017 projecti

“CLMV”

16.00 14.00 12.00

Myanmar Cambodia

10.00 Laos

8.00 6.00

Vietnam

4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.00

Major Advanced Economies

-4.00 -6.00 '94- '04 '03

Source: IMF

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14'17

Ç ° Ã¨ ´Ê Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ Cover story

ons by IMF as of Oct 2012

“ASEAN 6”

16.00 14.00

Singapore

12.00 10.00 8.00

Indonesia

6.00

Thailand

4.00

Malaysia

Philippines

2.00 Brunei

0.00 -2.00 -4.00 -6.00 '94- '04 '03

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14'17

Â n È¥ ´ Á È £¼¤·£µ ¸¤É ¸ ´ nª ¦³

¬³ ¬m© »n ·Ê£¥· ´¤Æ n ÊÏ´ ©m´©³ §² 2 ¯§§´¥q ¯m ¥² ´ 2011 ¥¹¯ d§m´¬º , % Congo, Dem. Rep. Bangladesh Lao PDR Pakistan Cambodia

Indonesia

Source: World Bank

Vietnam

Philippines

41.5

China

29.8%

Bhutan

29.8%

Thailand

4.6%

Malaysia

2.3%

Singapore

0.0%

Brunei

0.0%

Myanmar

N/A

µ ¦¥µ °¥¼n¼ Cover story

¥ ³Ë £ 95.2% 76.5% 66.0% 60.2% 53.3%

46.1%

3.4%

Ä oµ ´ ®µÁ ¸¥¦£µ¡ ° ¦µ µ ° nª CLMV ¥´ o° ¦´ ¦» Annual change of CPI Percent

“CLMV”

40.00 35.00

Myanmar

30.00 25.00 Cambodia

20.00 15.00 Vietnam

10.00

Laos

5.00 OECD

0.00 -5.00 2007

Source: IMF

2008

2009

2010

2011

°µÁ ¸¥ 5 ¼Á®¤º° ³¦´ ¤º°Å o ¸ Cover story

“ASEAN 5”

40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00

Indonesia

5.00 Philippines Singapore

Malaysia

0.00 Thailand

-5.00 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Á ¸¥¦£µ¡Ä ¦³ µ µ¦ ° °µÁ BANK’S CAPITAL RATIO Bank’s capital / assets (%), 2011 or latest

Philippines

11.7

Indonesia

11.4

Thailand

10.5

Singapore

9.6

Malaysia

OECD members

Source: World Bank

8.9

6.8

Á ¸¥ 5 º°Å oªnµ¤´ É Cover story

BANK’S NPL Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%), 2011 or latest

3.8

2.9

3.5

1.8

2.9

3.2

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Á ¸¥¦£µ¡ µ¦ ¨´ ° °µÁ ¸¥ nª BUDGET BALANCE / GDP Percent, 2011

Brunei

14.30%

Singapore

1.30%

Indonesia

-1.20%

Thailand

-1.50%

Laos

-1.80%

Philippines

-2.10%

Vietnam

-2.60%

World

-4.20%

Myanmar

-4.50%

Malaysia

-4.90%

Cambodia

-5.10%

Source: CIA world fact book

Ä® n ¸¤µ Cover story

PUBLIC DEBT As % of GDP, 2011

1 Zimbabwe

219.7

2 Japan

205.5

4 Greece

165.3

8 Italy

120.1

10 Singapore

118.2

35 US

67.8

47 Bhutan

55.3

54 Malaysia

51.8

55 Philippines

50.9

59 Laos

49.1

60 Vietnam

48.8

68 Thailand

44.9

72 China

43.5

117 Indonesia

24.1

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°µÁ ¸¥ 5 ¤¸Á · » Îµ¦° ¦³®ªnµ ¦³ ´ ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « External debt Billion USD, 2010 or latest N.A.

Sing

Ind

179

Phili

35 6

Cam

N.A. 6

Source: World Bank

¦³Á «¼ Â¨³nª Ä® n¤µ ªnµ Cover story

International Reserves Billion USD, 2011 or latest

gapore

244

hailand

175

alaysia

134

onesia

110

ppines etnam

75 14

yanmar

mbodia

Brunei

ao PDR

¬¥º »n ¥¶´¥ ´¥Â ¶ Ä дѥіђѪѸ ьшѤњлѥдњѧдїшѠѫъдѓѤѕѯіѧє ѷ нѣјѠшѤњјк ѱчѕлѨчё Ѩ ѳѨ шієѥѝѝѥєѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 3.0% лѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ь окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьнњҕ кѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ Ѡк ъѤкѸ ьѨд Ѹ ѥіѯшѧэѱш еѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзѯѠдньѰјѣ ѷ Ѽѥѷ ѰѕҕѰјѣѯюѶ ь ѓѥзіѤуэѥј ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш ѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє єѨѳшієѥѝъѨѕ шѤњщҕњкдѥіѯшѧэѱш ѝњҕ ьѓѥзѠѪь ѷ ѵј Җњьѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѲьѯчѪѠьё.ѕ. чѤньѨяјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієђѪѸ ьшѤњѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ к ѱчѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѠѨд 8.8% лѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ Ѱјѣ 83.3% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэё.ѕ.юѨ дѠ ҕ ьокѩѷ ѯюѶ ьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ъҕњє Ѳьч ҖѥьяјяјѧшѓѥзѯдќшіѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨѯєѪѠ ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕчѤньѨдѥіэіѧѱѓзѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньокѩѷ іњєщѩкдѥіѯе Җѥєѥјкъѫь ѱчѕшіклѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ ѝњҕ ьѓѥз ѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэшѤњчѨеь ѩѸ ѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ѩѸ ѯшѧэѱш 5.2% Ѳьч ҖѥьчѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ ѝщѥьдѥіцҙдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдчѨеь Ѳьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰід ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯшѧэѱшѝѬкєѥдщѩк 11.5% ецѣъѨѷ ѠѫшѝѥўдіієдѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨ лѼѥьњььѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯёѧє ѷ єѥдеѩь Ѹ 14% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ єѠкѳюе Җѥкўь ҖѥъѤкѸ ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧь ѰјѣьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьѝщѥьѣъѨѷ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кеѥјк ѝкҕ ѯѝіѧєдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѱчѕѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ окѩѷ ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з.єѨдѥіюіѤэјчѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕјкѠѨд 0.25% јкєѥѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ ѧ ѯнѠ Ѫѷ еѠкыьѥзѥіёѥцѧнѕҙеѕѥѕшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ 2.75% окѩѷ єѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў Җѝь ѷ к Ѳьч Җѥь ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкєѨдѥіѯэѧдлҕѥѕ іѥѕлҕѥѕёѧѯћќеѠкіѤуэѥјѯёѪѠ ѷ нчѯнѕзњѥє Ѩ ўѥѕлѥдѠѫъдѓѤѕѰјѣјкъѫь ъѼѥѲў ҖіѥѕлҕѥѕеѠкіѤуэѥјеѕѥѕшѤњєѥѲьнњҕ къѨѷ ѯѝѕ яҕѥьєѥеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьё.ѕ. ѓѥзыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчь Ѩ ҖѠѕјк ѲьецѣъѨѷ ѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕь ҖѠѕјк ѲьѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫчѝћн.юіѤэѯёѧє ѷ юіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкюѨ ьѰ ѨѸ шҕюіѤэјчеѠкюѨ Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬҕ ўь Җѥјк ъѼѥѲў ҖјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё іѣўњҕѥк 5.5-5.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012 Ѱјѣіѣўњҕѥк 4.2-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013

´¥ n´ ´ Ã§² ´¥ ¥² ´¤¥´¤Æ n ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. 2012 јчдјѤэєѥѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 0.56% ѠѨдзіѤкѸ Ѱјѣ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэ шѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ іѥѕѳч ҖшҕѠўѤњеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъѨѷ 83 еѠкѱјд зьѳъѕѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ лѣєѨ іѥѕѳч Җь ҖѠѕдњҕѥзьлѨьѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ ѠѕѬѯҕ јѶдь ҖѠѕ ѰшҕлѣєѨіѥѕѳч ҖєѥддњҕѥзьѠѧьѯчѨѕ ѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ щѩкдњҕѥѝѥєѯъҕѥ дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэ Ѩ Ѱшҕєд ъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ Ѩ ѥіёѤхьѥчѨеь ѩѸ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьіѣѕѣ 5юѨ ъя Ѩѷ ѥҕ ьєѥ дѥіелѤч зњѥєѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєъѨч ѷ е Ѩ ь ѩѸ ѲьіѣѕѣўдюѨ ўјѤк ѯўѶьѳч ҖлѥдлѼѥьњьзьѕѥдль Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльѲьюѤ ллѫэѤьдѶщѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэъѤкѸ ѲьѠчѨш ъѨј ѷ чјкѰјѣѝч Ѫ њҕѥшѼѥѷ ѯєѪѠ ѰјѣєѥшіуѥьюіѣѯъћдѼѥјѤкёѤхьѥ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюёѫкҕ еѩь Ѹ ѯюѶ ь 3.6% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% щѪѠњҕѥзҕѠье ҖѥкшѼѥѷ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэюіѣѯъћѠѪь ѷ ѵ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъікшѤњчѨ ѝч ѷ ѧѸ ѳшієѥѝъѨѝ Ѹ єѥѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җјчјк ц ѝь ѷ ѥєеѠк еѩь Ѥ ѝњҕ ьѝь ѧ ѯнѠ Ѫѷ шҕѠѯкѧьѐѥдјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѰѝчкщѩкѝѓѥёзјҕѠкъѨч юѨ ьѨѸ ѝч ѷ е Ѩ ь ѩѸ Ѳь іѣээ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѕѤкзкьҕѥѯюѶ ьўҕњк чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠь Ѩѷ ј Җњщѩкдњҕѥ 4 Ѱѝьј Җѥьэѥъ ѰідеѠкюѨ шч ѧ јэєѥддњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ ъѤкѸ ьѨю Ѹ іѣѯъћѳъѕщѬдзѥчњҕѥлѣеѥччѫјкэюіѣєѥц -4% еѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьюѨ ьѨѸ окѩѷ щѪѠњҕѥѳєҕь ҖѠѕ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯєѪѠ ѷ њѤчѲьіѬюі ҖѠѕјѣеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьюѨ Ѫ њҕѥѝѬкьѤдѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэєѥшіуѥь ьѨѱѸ чѕ ц ѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 44% окѩѷ ѕѤкѳєҕщѠ ьѥьѥнѥшѧ ѱчѕѯл ҖѥўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѝњҕ ьѲўрҕѠѕѬѲҕ ьюіѣѯъћ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨеь ѩѸ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫј ѝѥѯўшѫўјѤдєѥлѥдчѫјэіѧдѥіѰјѣдѥіѯзјѪѠ ѷ ьѕ Җѥѕъѫь ўьѨш Ѹ юъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ єѥд ѠѕҕѥкѳідѶч Ѩ зњѥєѝѥєѥіщѲьдѥінѼѥіѣўьѨш Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѳєҕьҕѥѯюѶ ьъѨѷ дѤкњјѯьѪѠ ѷ клѥдіѣчѤэъѫьѝѼѥіѠкъѨѝ ѷ кѬ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥъѰеѶкшѤњѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэ дѤэѯкѧьѝдѫјѝѼѥзѤрѠѪь ѷ ѵѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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• лѨчё Ѩ ѳѨ шієѥѝ 3 ѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 3.0% • ѲьѯчѪѠьё.ѕ. чѤньѨяјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўді ўь Җѥ Ѱјѣ 83.3% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэюѨ дѠ ҕ • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕчѤньѨдѥіэіѧѱѓзѰјѣдѥ ѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙюіѤэ • чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨѰьњѱь дѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨєѥд • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьд • ѓѥзыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчь Ѩ ҖѠѕјк Ѳь • јҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱше Ѱјѣіѣўњҕѥк 4.2-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 20

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• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. 2012 ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣч • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч Җњҕѥ іѣѕѣ 5юѨ ъя Ѩѷ ѥҕ ьєѥ • дѥіелѤчзњѥєѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєъѨч ѷ е Ѩ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльѲьюѤ ллѫэь ѝч Ѥ дѶщѠ Ѫ њҕѥш

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• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤѷњѳюёѫкҕ еѩь Ѹ ѯюѶ ь 3.6% Ѳьѯч яѬ Җяјѧшѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 0.9% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕкѤ зкъ ѳєҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җјчјк ѝѓѥёзј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѕѤкзкьҕѥѯюѶ ь нњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњщѩкдњҕѥ 400 • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч Җѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћч ѠѤьшіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥъѰеѶкзҕѥѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ

ѝѥіэѤр ўь Җѥ

лѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ь окѩѷ ьҕѥяѧчўњѤкѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝ 2 іієђѪѸ ьшѤњѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ к ѱчѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѠѨд 8.8% лѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь ьокѩѷ ѯюѶ ьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє яјяјѧшѯдќшіѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ ѥіјкъѫьѯѠдньіњєъѤкѸ дѥіјкъѫьѱчѕшіклѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѕѤкзк эшѤњчѨеь ѩѸ ѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ҖєчѨеь ѩѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѯшѧэѱш5.2%Ѳьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ ецѣъѨѷ

13 16

діѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл ьецѣъѨѓ ѷ ѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕь ҖѠѕјк еѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 5.5-5.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012 013

38 42 45

2 јчдјѤэєѥъѨѷ 0.56% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь чѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ Ѱшҕєд ѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ Ѩ ѥіёѤхьѥчѨеь ѩѸ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲь

еѩь Ѹ ѲьіѣѕѣўдюѨ ўјѤк ѯўѶьѳч ҖлѥдлѼѥьњьзьѕѥдльъѨј ѷ чјкѰјѣ шѼѥѷ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэъѤкѸ ѲьѠчѨшѰјѣєѥшіуѥьюіѣѯъћдѼѥјѤкёѤхьѥ

чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє ъікшѤњѱчѕѝч ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ўьѨъ Ѹ Ѩѷ јҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьўҕњк чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ шч ѧ јэєѥддњҕѥ 0,000 ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕкѤ ѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ чѨеь ѩѸ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫј ўьѨш Ѹ юъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕкѤ ѳєҕ

22 31

70 77

Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É µ¤ ¸ ¸¡Á¸ · Ã Á¡¸¥ 3% ¹É

´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

7.1% 6.3%

CAGR* 2000Ͳ2011 = 3.9%

5.3%

4.8%

4.6%

5.1% 5.0

2.2%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

nµ · ®ª´ Â n È¥ ´ Å¤n ¹ ´ ®µ¥ ³

7.8%

4.4% 3.0%

2.5% 0.1%

0.4%

-2.3%

07 2008 2009 2010 2011

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12

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´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 3Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 3.0

GDP

12.2

Mining

11.7

Agriculture

9.8

Construction

8.0

Transport

6.9

Hotel&Res Utilities

4.9

Health&Social

4.7

Private HH

4.6

RealEstate

4.4

Financial

4.2

PublicAdmin

4.1

Trading

4.1 3.6

Education 1.0

Other social -1.1

Manufacture Fishing

-6.4

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

Å ¦¤µ ¸É µ¤Â¨³Á È ´ª nª n° µ¦

´¥q 1.06b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 3Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѓѥзшҕѥкѵ 3.0

GDP 0.8

Transport

0.6

Agriculture

0.5

Trading Hotel&Res

0.3

Mining

0.3

Construction

0.2

Financial

0.2

Utilities

0.2

RealEstate

0.2

PublicAdmin

0.1

Education

0.1

Health&Social

0.1

Other social

0.0

Private HH

0.0

Fishing

-0.1

Manufacture -0.4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥®¨´ ¸É ¦³ » o µ¦Á · Ã ° ¸ ¸¡Ä¸ ¦³Á « ´Ê µ £µ ¦´ Â¨³Á° ´¥q 1.08a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ¥´¤ m´¤ 3Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

GDP

3.0

6.0

ͲM

-1.4

-1.8

-2.8

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É µ¤¤µ µ µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Ä

´¥q 1.08b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 3Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдіѥѕлҕѥѕшҕѥкѵ

GDP

3.0

3.1

ͲM

1.2

1.1

Discrpncy

0.3

-0.3

-2.2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

´ ¸ ¨ ¨· °» µ® ¦¦¤¢ºÊ ´ª n°Á º°É Ä

´¥q 1.11 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100) CAGR

5.2% 172.4 159.5

179.1 166.3

149.9 137.6 123.9 109.9

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Á º° ¡.¥.

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

190.1 172.9

200.0

2012 150.0

MͲoͲM 100.0

2011

8.8% YͲoͲY

83.3% 50.0

0.0

2010 2011

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°» µ® ¦¦¤nª Ä® n¤¸ ¨ ¨· Á¡·¤É ¹Ê µ ´¥q 1.12a – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ё.ѕ. 2012

795.

Vehicles 254.8

Office automate Machineries

138.8

Transport Equip

117.6

Electrical

78.3

Electronic

58.4

Basic Mat

25.0

Petroleum

24.5

Textiles

23.0

Mineral

22.6

Metal products

19.5

Rubber&Plastic

18.7

Food & Bev

17.9

Chemical

16.6

Leather

13.7

Paper

-0.9

Apparel

-2.1

Furniture

-4.4

Precision instru

-14.6

Tobacco

-19.7

Wood products

-21.5

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis

¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 1.12b – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ё.ѕ. 2012 8

-0.2 42.7 3.4 1.9 -2.1 -8.1 -0.9 9.0 1.0 -2.8 -7.0 -2.9 8.9 -6.8 1.3 -12.7 -8.8 -4.1 -19.5 47.2 4.8

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· ¥´ Á¡·¤É n°Á º°É ¨· · ´¥q 1.13a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч 68.6 67.7

66.5 65.8 65.4

64.2

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Oct-12

Nov-12

° Â¨³ µ °» µ® ¦¦¤ ¨· Á · Îµ¨´ µ¦ ´¥q 1.13b – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ ¥´¤¯º ± % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч, ё.ѕ. 2012 Vehicles Electrical Chemical Petroleum Precision instru Transport Equip Machineries Mineral Electronic Rubber&Plastic Paper Office automate Food & Bev Tobacco Metal products Basic Mat Textiles Apparel Furniture Leather Wood products

117.8 109.2 80.8 79.3 78.2 75.8 70.1 69.4 67.1 66.7 64.6 62.9 60.3 58.6 57.8 51.3 42.7 36.8 34.2 30.1 18.3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦³Á «Å ¥¤¸ µ¦ ¥µ¥ ´ª ° ¨ ¨· °» ´ nª ¸ n° ® oµ ¸ É ¦³ ´ ®µ ÎÊµ nª¤ ´¥q 1.14 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, јҕѥѝѫч Thailand Ͳ Nov 10.1

China Ͳ Nov Indonesia Ͳ Oct

8.9

India Ͳ Oct

8.2 5.8

Malaysia Ͳ Oct Taiwan Ͳ Oct

4.6

Australia Ͳ Q3

4.3

Pakistan Ͳ Oct

2.5

US Ͳ Nov

2.5

Brazil Ͳ Oct

2.3

Russia Ͳ Nov

1.9

Hong Kong Ͳ Q3

-0.1

South Korea Ͳ Oct

-0.8

Singapore Ͳ Oct

-2.2

Euro Area Ͳ Oct

-3.6

Japan Ͳ Oct

-4.5

Source: The Economist

µ® ¦¦¤¼ ¸É » Ä ¦° ¨nµ» Á¤º°É Á ¸¥

83.3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¨ ¨· £µ Á ¬ ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê °¥nµ ¤µ Ä nª

´¥q 1.10 – ³ · ´¥ §¶ ¢´ Â « ¥ (2005 = 100) CAGR

2.9%

106.7

113.1 110.2 111.8

100.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a

¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

112.5

118.5

200.0

YͲoͲY 8.4% MͲoͲM 112%

150.0

2012 100.0

2011 50.0

0.0

2010 2011

and Cooperatives

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

´ ¸ µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Á° ¦´ ´ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê µ Á Ä ¸ ¸Ê ´¥q 1.15 – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ Â¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

3.0%

105.9

111.2

117.8

125.5 121.5 123.7

129.8

126.4

02-Avg 03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 1

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

Source: Bank of Thailand

Á º° n° Â¨³¥´ Á · Ã °¥nµ Â È Â¦

133.2

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 155.0

150.0

2012

137.9

10-Avg 11-Avg

145.0

2011

140.0

135.0

MͲoͲM 1.8% 130.0

YͲoͲY

11.6% 125.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Á · Ã °¥nµ ´ªÉ ¹ Ä nª 11 Á Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä Á º° ¡.¥. ´¥q 1.16a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2012 77.5

Passenger Car (Unit)

67.6

Commercial Car (Unit) 21.3

NGV (kg.) LPG (litre)

15.5

Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)

14.8

Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)

12.1

HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)

10.8

Diesel (litre)

8.3

Benzene & Gasohol (litre)

4.9

Motocycle (Unit)

4.8

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

º° Â¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê Â¨³¦µ¥ n µ¥nª Ä® n ´¥q 1.16b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ё.ѕ. 2012 3.2 -2.1 1.2 0.2 6.0 0.0 8.5 4.1 5.7 0.4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ ¸ µ¦¨ » Á° ¦´ ´ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê µ Á ¸ ¸Ê ´¥q 1.17 – ³ · ´¥§ º Â¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

6.1%

169.5 172.1 171.8 154.9

178.0 156.5

132.2 118.2

02-Avg 03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand

º° n° Â¨³¥´ Á · Ã °¥nµ Â È Â¦ Ä

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 300.0

250.0

2012

202.2

186.5

10-Avg 11-Avg

2011 200.0

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM

1.8% YͲoͲY

26.2%

50.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥ µ¦¨ » Á° Ä ¸ 2012 Á · Ã ´ª¨ oµ ´¥q 1.18a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2012

Domestic commercial car sales (unit)

47.5

Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)

23.1

Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)

10.5

Domestic Cement sales (ton)

10.1

Construction Area permitted (sqm)

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

2.1

Ã °¥nµ ´ªÉ ¹ Â¤o µ ¦µ¥ n µ¥ ³Á¦·¤É ³¨°

´¥q 1.18b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ё.ѕ. 2012

-3.1

6.3

-3.3

0.1

-1.0

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ µ .Á¡·¤É ¹Ê 25% Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª ј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

11,331

9,460

9,112 8,547

8,048

4,853

05FY

Source: BOT

06FY

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

Ä nª 10 Á º° Â¦ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ nª

´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 9,000 8,000 7,000

7,778

11FY

6,000

2011

5,000

2012 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

F M A M J

S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ µ . ¸ É °¦´ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê 40%

´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

351

68%

297 236

08FY

09FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

10FY

· · Ã¸ °Å°Ä nª 11 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸

.¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯

496 40%

396

11FY

355

2011/11M

2012/11M

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¸ É »n Á È ¦³Á « ¸¤É µ¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ Ä Å ¥

´¥q 5.16 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьлѥдєѬјзҕѥјкъѫьъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Others

20%

17%

USA ANIEs

3% 6%

10%

ASEAN

15%

12% 12%

Europe

23% 27%

Japan

35% 22%

08FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis

09FY

¥¤µ ¸É »

. ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯

23% 3% 6% 6%

27% 2% 7%

9% 3% 8% 8% 9%

8% 17%

63% 44%

10FY

49%

11FY

2012/11M

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ®µ¦·¤ ¦´¡¥rÁ · Ã Å o ¸Ä Á º° . .

´¥q 1.19a – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 10 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2012

63.6

Condo unit registered

22.8

New housing unit

7.5

Value of land transaction

Constr. Area in municipal

-0.3

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

´¥q 1.19b – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ш.з. 2012

47.2

39.6

-22.2

13.4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

µ¦n °° ° Å ¥Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä nª ° ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oªÃ ¥¤¸· oµÁ ¬ ¦Á È ´ª nª ® ´¥q 5.05a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ §º£ m ¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, нњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2012 Total export Automotive Mining Petroleum Metal Photo instru Other export Toiletries ReͲexports Agro products Jewellery Other manufacturing Chemicals Machinery Forestry Electrical Optical instru Electronics PetroͲchemical Furniture Fishery Aircrafts Apparels Footware Agriculture

5.2 25.9 22.9 21.6 20.8 17.2 15.9 11.1 10.0 7.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 3.5 3.4 1.5 0.7 -0.9 -3.8 -5.0 -10.3 -17.9 -20.7

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

11 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ Á ¸¥ ´ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ®¨´ ´¥q 5.05b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ´¥¬m ¯¯ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь Total export Automotive Petroleum Agro products Metal Other export Machinery Electronics Chemicals Other manufacturing Mining Photo instru Electrical Jewellery Toiletries PetroͲchemical Optical instru Forestry ReͲexports Furniture Fishery Aircrafts Footware Apparels Agriculture

5.2 2.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -2.2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¥¼Ã¦Ã Á È ¨µ µ¦n °° ¸ÁÉ È ´ ®µÄ

´¥q 5.07a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ ¥²Â ª §´¤ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч ᪛ 5.3

᪛ 5.9

᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.

Middle East

4.9

5.4

5.7

5.0

14.1

13.2

11.9

11.3

11.8

11.3

10.3

10.5

12.7

12.2

11.7

18.4

18.1

100% =

Japan NAFTA Rest of the world

14.1 14.5

16.6

East Asia exͲJapan

19.4

18.3

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

21.3

22.5

21.3

23.0

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11F

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Ä ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 5.07b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ ¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯ 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2012 ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѨѰ ѷ ј Җњ 7 (Trillion)

15.8%

Middle East

9.0%

Rest of the world NAFTA

8.0%

ASEAN

7.2%

East Asia ex Japan

5.1%

Japan

0.8%

-8.1%

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

· oµ » Á È ´ ´¥®¨´ Ä µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê °

´¥q 5.09a – ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ´£ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2012

11.5

Total import

Capital goods

18.5

Consumer goods

14.3

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

4.1

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

Others

-2.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

µ¦ ÎµÁ oµÄ nª 11 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸

8.4

´¥q 5.09b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь

11.5

Total import

6.1

Capital goods

2.7

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

1.7

Consumer goods

1.4

Others

-0.2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¨»n¤ª´ » · Á È ´ nª ®¨´ Ä µ¦ ÎµÁ oµ · oµ » ¤¸ ´ nª Á¡·¤É ¹Ê °¥nµ ¤µ ´¥q 5.08 – ¬³ ¬m© ´¥ Ï´Â n´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч Ѯ 4.9

Ѯ 6.0

Ѯ 4.6

Others

6.7

8.0

7.8

Capital goods

20.4

19.3

22.3

Intermediate – NonͲFuel

47.5

44.8

43.0

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

18.4

20.7

18.6

Consumer goods

7.0

7.1

8.3

07FY

08FY

09FY

100% =

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

´Ê ®¤ Â nÄ nª 11Á º° Â¦ ° ¸

Ѯ 5.9

Ѯ 7.0

Ѯ 7.1

10.2

12.4

10.5

21.3

24.5

44.0

40.0

37.9

17.4

18.9

19.2

7.5

7.8

10FY

11FY

12/11MO

20.9

(Trillion)

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê 14% Ä nª 1

´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ј ҖѥьзіѤкѸ

CAGR

6.6%

13.8 11.7 10.8

14.5

14.6

14.1

11.5

10.0

02FY 03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY Source: Department of Tourism

11 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2012

³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ ¤¯ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 19.2

15.9

Y 10FY 11FY

25.0

20.0

15.0

2011

10.0

2012

5.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ nª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª µ¤´ µ ·Å¤nÁ ¨¸¥É ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª µ Á°Á ¸¥ .°.¤¸ ´ nª ¼ Á ·

´¥q 5.19 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´ ¯ ³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьеѠкъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Rest of world

14.0

14.3

15.3

Americas

6.4

6.2

6.0

Europe

27.0

27.3

28.7

East Asia

52.6

52.1

50.0

07FY

08FY

09FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis

Â ¨ ¤µ ´ Ä ¦³¥³®¨´ Ã ¥ ¦¹ É ¤µÃ ¥ ¨° ©Ã m ´£¬³ ´ ¶

15.6

14.7

14.3

5.3

5.0

4.8

27.9

26.5

24.3

51.2

53.8

56.5

10FY

11FY

2012/11M

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

Ä nª 11 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2012 ¦µ¥ n µ¥ ° ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 2500

2000

1500

1000

500

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¥¦´ µ¨Á¡·¤É ¹Ê 32% µ nª Á ¸¥ª ´

2012 2011

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ¥ ´ª ¸É 2.75% nª µ¤ µ¦¨ °´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ¥Ä Á º° ´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Ä¤ ´¤ . 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% Dec-12

Jan-12

´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Â ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q 1.0% Max

0.9% 0.8%

Min

0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%

Dec-11

Source: Bank of Thailand

0.3% Nov-12

°´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥°ºÉ ÇÁ¦·¤É ¸ É ³ ¦´ ¨ ¨ ¤µ . . ´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë n´£ ¹ ¥²©m´ ´ ´¥ 3.25% 3.00% 2.75%

Dec-11

2.50% Nov-12

´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Â ¶ »§n » n´ ³Ë · . ´ ¶ ¤q 8.0% Max 7.5% Min

7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5%

Dec-11

5.0% Nov-12

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

· Á ºÉ° ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥r ¥µ¥ ´ª n°Á º°É

´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶ Â ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m© Â ¶ Ån¬¶ Â ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84%

89.3%

89.9%

89.6%

Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12

Source: Bank of Thailand

89.6%

90.2%

Feb-12 Mar-12

° Ä ³ ¸É £µ¡ ¨n° Ä ¦³ ¸ ¹Ê

MͲoͲM

1.2% YͲoͲY

13.9% r-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

90.8%

91.4%

91.1%

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12

´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q

92.8%

92.4%

91.9%

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12

91.7%

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

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чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

£µ »¦ · ¤° Ã¨ Ä Â n ¸ °o ¥ ªnµÁ º° n° ¨ ¨ ´¥q 1.21a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê º¥ ¶ * 100

Better 51.5

51.7

50.2

49.9

52.1

52.0

Worse

0 Jun-12

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Source: Bank of Thailand

° nª £µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¤° Ä Â n¨ ´¥q 1.21b – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£** 200

Better

102.7 100

98.7

98.5

94.1

93.0

95.2

Worse

0 Jun-12

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¼ o ¦·Ã£ ¤° Ã¨ Ä Â n¦µo ¥ o°¥¨

´¥q 1.20a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê »n ¥¶Ä¢ 200

· ¸Ë ч Җѥьіѥѕѳч ҖѲьѠьѥзш 100

Ã¤m§

0 Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12 May-12

(*) єѨзѥҕ ѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 0-200 щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѝ ҕ кѬ дњҕѥ 100 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣчѨе щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэ 100 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵѳєҕѯ щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 100 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣ

Source: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, UTCC

ч Җѥьдѥіўѥкѥь ѱчѕіњє

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

еѩь Ѹ ўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэчѨ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјк ўіѪѠъікшѤњѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэюѥьдјѥк ѣѰѕҕјкўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэѳєҕч Ѩ

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

« . ¦´ Á¡·¤É ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · Ã ° ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 7.00

6.50

The Economist poll NESDB

6.00

BOT

FPO

5.50

5.00

4.50

4.00 Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econom

° ¸ ¸Ê Â n ¦´ ¨ ° ¸ ® oµ¨

ist

´¥q 1.03b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 7.00

6.50

6.00

5.50

FPO NESDB The Economist poll

5.00

BOT 4.50

4.00 Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12

Forecast as of, month ending

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Îµ®¦´ ¸ 2012 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ Á¡¸¥ ¸ Â¨³°· Ã ¸Á ¸¥Á nµ ´Ê ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 22/12/2012

7.7

China 6.3

Indonesia Thailand

5.8

India

5.8 5.2

Malaysia 4.2

Pakistan

3.7

Russia

3.4

Australia South Korea

2.2

Japan

1.7

Hong Kong

1.6

Singapore

1.5

Brazil

1.5

Taiwan Euro Area -0.4

Source: The Economist

1.1

¦ rªnµ ³Á · Ã ¼ ¹ 5.8% ¹É Á È ¦° ´¥q 1.04b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 22/12/2012

8.5 6.4 4.2 6.5 4.5 3.3 3.7 2.8 3.4 1.9 0.8 2.6 2.9 4.2 2.7 -0.2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ ¨ ¨ °¸ ¦´Ê Ä Á º° . ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч 2.4

02-Avg

2.2

2.1

03-Avg

1.8

04-Avg

05-Avg

1.5

06-Av

0.9 0.82

0.81

0.73

0.66 0.43

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

Apr-

-12

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.0 0.7

07-Avg

08-Avg

09-Avg

10-Avg

11-Avg

0.92 0.67

May-12

Jun-12

0.56

Jul-12

Aug-12

0.63

Sep-12

0.56

Oct-12

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ ÎµÉ ¤µ Á¤ ´¥q 2.09 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ Å ¥²Â ª m´ È лѥддѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫч, % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч Thailand Ͳ Oct Singapore Ͳ Q3 South Korea Ͳ Nov Malaysia Ͳ Sep Hong Kong Ͳ Nov

0.6 1.9 2.8 3.2 3.4

China Ͳ Q3

4.1

Japan Ͳ Oct

4.2

Taiwan Ͳ Oct

4.3

Russia Ͳ Oct

Brazil Ͳ Oct

Australia Ͳ Nov

5.2

Pakistan Ͳ 2011 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 US Ͳ Nov India Ͳ 2011 Euro Area Ͳ Oct Source: The Economist

°Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ

2 6.0 6.1 7.7 9.8 11.7

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¤µ ¹Ê Á®È Å

´¥q 2.01 –¬³£ ¥²¬¶ ¶Î · ·Ê*

0.520

0.513

0.507

1994

1996

1998

0.522

2000

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

o µ ´¤ ¦³· ·Í ¸ ¸É ¸¤É ¸Â ªÃ o¤¨ ¨

0.507

2002

0.493

2004

0.515

2006

0.499

2007

0.485

2009

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÁ¤º°É ¤° Ä °¸ ¤»¤ ´¥q 2.02 – ¬m© Ã m ¥´¤Æ n ´£ §º£ m ¥´¤Æ n ¥n¯¤§² ¯ ¥´¤Æ n ¥² ´ ´ ¶ Top 20% Bottom 20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top 20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second 20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third 20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth 20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom 20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

ÈÁ®È Å oªnµ¤¸¡ ´ µ µ¦ ¸ ¹Ê Â n ÈÅ¤n¤µ ´

13.1

14.6

13.2

12.1

13.9

12.5

11.3

56.1

57.5

55.9

54.9

56.1

54.9

54.2

19.8

20.1

20.2

20.0

20.2

20.1

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.4

12.1

12.4

12.6

7.8

7.3 4.0

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.4

4.2

4.5

4.0

4.4

4.8

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

4.3

998

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á « Îµ¨´ ¡´ µ oª¥ ´ o°¥ ªnµ ¦³Á «°¥nµ ¤µÁ¨Á ¸¥ ®¦º° ¸ ´¥q 2.03 – ©´£Â§¹Ê¯£§ËÏ´ n´ ¥´¤Æ nÅ Ä§ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ¥² ´ ¥ ·Ê¥©¤ ·Ê¬º 20% Ã¥ Â ·¤ ³ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ·Ê ·Ê¬º Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic

2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis

ªµ¤Á®¨º°É ¤¨ÎÊµ oµ ¦µ¥Å o ° Å ¥ È¥ ´

20%, d 2011 ¥¹¯§m´¬º

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

Î µ ª ¥µ ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¨ ¨ Ä ¦³¥³®

´¥q 2.04a – Â¬n ©´£¤´ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠьшҕѠзь 1,678

1,386

2006

Source: NESDB

1,579

1,586

2008

2009

1,443

2007

2010

®¨´

´¥q 2.04b – Ï´ © »n¤´ ј Җѥьзь 6.10

2006

5.40

2007

5.80

2008

5.30

5.08

2009

2010

8.1%

7.8%

2009

2010

´¥q 2.04c – ¬³ ¬m© »n¤´ % еѠкюіѣнѥдіъѤкѸ ўєч

9.6%

2006

8.5%

9.0%

2007

2008

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

®¨µ¥ ¦³Á «Ä Á°Á ¸¥Â¨³Ä °µÁ ¸¥ ¥´ ¤ ´¥q 2.05 – ©´£¤´ Å Ä§

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖъѨє ѝч ѷ іѨ ѥѕѳч ҖшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 2 чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢшҕѠњѤь шҕѠлѼѥьњьюіѣ Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India

Lao PDR 60.2

Pakistan

57.3

Nepal

53.3

Cambodia 46.1

Indonesia

43.4

Vietnam

41.5

Philippines 31.3

South Africa China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

Sri Lanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8

¤¸ ´ nª ¥µ ¼

ѣнѥді, юѨ јҕѥѝѫч 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

15.4

Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB

12.9

Peru

12.7 10.8

Brazil

8.0

Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

Slovak Republic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

Russian Federation

0.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Å ¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o °o ¥ ªnµ ¸ ¤µ ªnµ °· Á ¸¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ¹ ªnµµ¤Á nµ ´¥q 2.06 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ³© 2011, чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Norway (1) Qatar (2) Luxembourg (3) Switzerland (4) Denmark (5) Sweden (6) Netherlands (7) US (8) Finland (9) Austria (10) Belgium (11) Canada (12) Japan (13) Germany (14) Singapore (15) France (16) UAE (17) Ireland (18) UK (19) Italy (20) Hong Kong (21) Iceland (22) Spain (23) Israel (24) Greece (25)

Source: The World Bank

60,390 53,230 49,730 48,450 48,420 48,300 46,160 45,560 45,180 43,980 42,930 42,420 40,760 38,580 37,780 35,330 35,160 35,020 30,990 28,930 25,030

Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É °¥¼nÁ¨È o°¥ Â n ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o µ ( ) = World rank 88,890 80,440 78,130 76,380

Czech Republic (29) Hungary (36) Brazil (46) Turkey (47) Argentina (49) Mexico (51) Malaysia (53) South Africa (65) Colombia (69) China (78) Thailand (83) Ecuador (85) Ukraine (100) Indonesia (103) Iraq (108) Egypt (109) Sri Lanka (110) Philippines (113) Bhutan (115) India (122) Vietnam (124) Nigeria (127) Lao PDR (130) Cambodia (139) Bangladesh (142)

18,520 12,730 10,720 10,410 9,740 9,240 8,420 6,960 6,110 4,930 4,420 4,140 3,120 2,940 2,640 2,600 2,580 2,210 2,070 1,410 1,260 1,200 1,130 830 770

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Â n µo Ä o° ´ ¦µÂ¨ Á ¨¸¥É Â ªµ¤Á nµÁ parity) Å ¥ ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o¡°Ç ´ ¸ ´¥q 2.07 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ³© Ï´ © Ã PPP

ѪѸ , ч 2011, ѠѤшіѥѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰээзњѥєѯъҕѥѯъѨѕєдѤьеѠкѠѼѥьѥлоѠ Qatar (1) Luxembourg (2) Norway (3) Singapore (4) Switzerland (5) Hong Kong (6) US (7) UAE (8) Netherlands (9) Sweden (10) Austria (11) Denmark (12) Germany (13) Canada (14) Belgium (15) Australia (16) Finland (17) UK (18) France (19) Japan (20) Ireland (21) Italy (22) Spain (23) Iceland (24) Korea, Rep. (25)

Source: The World Bank

64,260 61,460 59,380 52,570 52,350 48,820 47,890 43,140 42,200 42,050 41,900 40,230 39,660 39,190 38,110 37,670 36,010 35,910 35,330 34,180 32,400 31,400 31,020 30,370

¸¥¤ ´ ° °Îµ µ ºÊ ° (Purchasing power

чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 86,440

( ) = World rank Israel (26) Greece (30) Saudi Arabia (31) Czech Republic (33) Russia (36) Croatia (40) Turkey (44) Malaysia (47) Mexico (48) Mauritius (55) Brazil (63) South Africa (68) China (80) Thailand (81) Bhutan (92) Sri Lanka (93) Indonesia (102) Philippines (106) India (112) Vietnam (116) Lao PDR (119) Cambodia (126) Bangladesh (132) Nepal (145) Ethiopia (150)

27,110 25,100 24,700 24,370 20,560 18,760 16,940 15,650 15,390 14,330 11,420 10,710 8,390 8,360 5,570 5,520 4,500 4,140 3,590 3,250 2,580 2,230 1,940 1,260 1,110

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥Å o ¦´ªÁ¦º° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¦Èª ªnµ¦µ¥ n µ¥¦ª¤ Îµ¦ª ¨nµ» Ä ¸ 2011 ´¥q 2.10a – ¥´¤Æ n ¥³©Â¥¹¯ Â §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

14,963

2004

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

20,903

2009

23,236

2011

´¥q 2.10b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ Â §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

16,205

2009

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

17,403

2011

¤ ´Ê ¦³¥³Áª¨µ ¨° ® ¸Ê ¸¨É ¨ Ä µ¦ ´¥q 2.10c – ·Ë¬¶ Â §·Ê¤ m¯ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ эѥъ

104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,699

134,900

2009

2011

´¥q 2.10b – ¥²¤²Â©§´ §¯ ·ËÂ §·Ê¤* юѨ 3.3 2.8 2.3

2.4 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

Á · Á¢o ° ´ªÉ Å Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á È 3.6% nª Á · Á¢ ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 4.00%

3.6% 3.4%

3.50% 3.00%

2.8%

2.7%

1.8%

3.3%

Head line

2.7%

2.50% 2.00%

1.9%

1.8%

Core*

1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

¢o °¡ºÊ µ ´ªÄ Á º° . .

´¥q 3.07b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ¥´¤ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ы.з. 2012 16.8

Veg & fruit

15.4

Energy 7.6

Tobacco & alcohol Transport & Commu

4.5

Prepared food at home

3.8

Housing & furnishing

3.3

Food away from home

2.7

Non alcoholic beverage

2.6

Seasoning

2.4

Medical care

1.2

Apparel and footware

1.0

Rice

0.8

Recreation & Education

0.4

Meat

-0.6

Eggs & milk

-1.4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

° µ °· Á ¸¥Â¨³ µ ¸ µ ¦³Á « nµ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³©Ê Ä§ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ

Latest

India Ͳ Nov Pakistan Ͳ Nov Russia Ͳ Nov

5.5

Brazil Ͳ Nov 4.3

Indonesia Ͳ Nov Singapore Ͳ Oct

4.0

Hong Kong Ͳ Oct

3.8

Thailand Ͳ Dec

3.6

Euro Area Ͳ Nov

2.2

Australia Ͳ Q3

2.0

China Ͳ Nov

2.0

US Ͳ Nov

1.8

Taiwan Ͳ Nov

1.6

South Korea Ͳ Nov

1.6 1.3

Malaysia Ͳ Nov Japan Ͳ Oct Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-0.4

Ç¨oª ¤¸° ´ ¦µÁ · Á¢o ° ¸ É ÎµÉ

2012* 9.9

9.3

6.9

9.7

6.4

5.1 5.4

4.3 4.5 4.1 3.1 2.5 1.9 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.7 -0.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · Á¢o °Ä ¦³ ´ ¼ o ¨· Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä Á

´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5% 1.1% 1.0%

0.9% 0.7% 0.6%

0.5% 0.1%

0.1%

0.0% Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12 Dec-12

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

º° . . Â n¥ ´ º°ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ÎµÉ ¤µ

´¥q 3.09b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ ¥´¤¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ы.з. 2012 Crop Fishing Metal Food Mechinery Other manu goods Transport equip Pulp & paper Chemical Leather & footware Wood Textile Forestry Livestocks -0.2 Electrical equip -0.3 Petroluem products -0.3 NonͲmetallic mineral -1.1 Energy -2.2 Rubber & plastic -3.2 Basic metals -3.7

4.6 3.3 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

´ nª Á · ° » ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥rÁ¡·¤É

13.7%

14.0%

2002

2003

13.0%

14.2%

2005

12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0%

16.2% 16.0% 15.8% 15.6% 15.4% 15.2% 15.0% 14.8% 14.6% 14.4%

2004

15.4%

15.3%

15.2%

Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12

Feb-12 Mar-12

15.1%

Source: Bank of Thailand

¤ ¹Ê n°Á º°É Ä Á º° . .

¤q

4.5%

15.4%

2006

2007

14.1%

2008

16.1%

16.2%

2009

2010

15.7%

15.9%

15.1%

2011

16.0%

15.3% 15.1%

15.0%

14.9%

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä oµ ¦·¤ Á · ¼ o Ê ´ ®¤

´¥q 3.03a – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m ÅnÂ ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 592 477

04YE

05YE

445

458

06YE

07YE

401

08YE

380

09Y

´¥q 3.03b – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m ÅnÂ ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѕѠчѯкѧьдѬ ҖъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

10.73% 8.16%

04YE

05YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

7.47%

06YE

7.31%

07YE

5.29%

4.85

08YE

09Y

¤µ Â n¨ ¨ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ Á È ´ nª n°¥°

´¥Â ¶

317

10YE

269

11YE

274

266

268

2012/Q1 2012/Q2 2012/Q3

´¥Â ¶

3.60%

10YE

2.74%

11YE

2.68%

2.55%

2.47%

2012/Q1 2012/Q2 2012/Q3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¸®¨µ¥ ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸° ´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ ¸ÂÉ o ¦· ´¥q 3.05 – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤ Ë ·ÊÃ n ¥¶ ц њѤьъѨѷ 22/12/2012

൞

3M riskͲfree interest rates

9.4

Pakistan 8.2

India

7.5

Russia

7.0

Brazil 4.9

Indonesia 3.9

China Australia

3.2

Malaysia

3.2 2.9

South Korea

2.4

Thailand Taiwan

0.9

Singapore

0.5

Hong Kong

0.5

0.3

Euro Area

0.2

Japan

0.2

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-0.

· ¨ ¦ª¤ ´Ê ¦³Á «Å ¥ oª¥

Expected 2012 inflation*

Real interest rates

9.7

-0.3

9.3

-1.2

5.1

2.4

5.4

1.6

4.3

0.6

2.8

1.1

1.9

1.3

1.7

1.5

2.3

0.6

3.1

-0.7

2.1

-1.2 4.5 4.1

2.1 2.5

-4.0 -3.7 -1.8 -2.3 0.3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° . . ´ ¸ SET Á¡·¤É ¹Ê 5.1% ¡¦o° ¨ » µ nµ ¦³Á « ´¥q 3.06a – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § Å ³ · SET % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ

5.8% 2.3%

2.3%

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

5.1% 0.0%

1.9%

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

´¥q 3.06b – £»§ m´ ´¥§ º ¬²¬£ ¯ m´ ´ ¶ SET Ѱјѣ MAI, шѤкѸ Ѱшҕш ҖьюѨ , ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12 M-12 J-12 J-12 A-12 S-12 O-12 N-12 D-12

Source: SET, The Economist

°¤ ´ µ¦Å®¨Á oµ¤µ°¸ ¦³¨° ° Á · ´¥q 3.06c – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § Å ³ · ³ ´ ¬¶Ë d 2011 ц њѤьъѨѷ 18/12/2012 48.6%

Pakistan (KSE) 32.9%

Thailand (SET)

29.8%

Germany (DAX)

25.3%

India (BSE)

22.0%

HK (Hang Seng)

19.3%

Singapore (STI) Japan (Nikkei 225)

17.4%

US (NAScomp)

17.2%

France (CAC 40)

15.5%

US (S&P 500)

15.0%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

14.8%

Indonesia (JSX)

12.5%

Australia (All Ord.)

12.2%

US (DJIA)

9.3%

S Korea (KOSPI)

9.2%

Malaysia (KLSE)

8.4%

Taiwan (TWI)

8.1%

UK (FTSE 100)

6.5%

China (SSEB, $ terms)

5.9%

China (SSEA)

-1.7%

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

¸ 2011 ¤¸ µ¦ µ »¨¨ ¨

´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ Â£¹¯Ê Â ·¤ ³ · · · чѫјѯкѧьѲькэюіѣєѥц чѫјѯкѧьѝч 1.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1% -0.5% -0.6%

-2.0%

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

-1.7%

07FY

-0.3% -0.7%

-1.1% -1.1%

-1.3%

% -2.6%

-4.0% -4.4%

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä nª 11 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2012 »¨ ¹ ªnµ 4 Â ¨oµ µ ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

¥´¤¥³

877

º§ ¥²£´

1,013

-79

1,109

1,241

-36

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

110

-956

-996

-1,109

-1,277 -1,280

¥´¤ m´¤

-1,629 -1,598

-1

02FY 03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 0 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¦³¤µ o°¥ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª

º§ ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 1,751

1,902

100.0

,484 0.0

2011

-100.0

-75

-28

364 -200.0

2012

-300.0

1,849 -1,825

-1,930

-400.0

-500.0

9FY 10FY 11FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¸ 2012 °µ ¤¸ µ¦ µ »¨Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ · ¼

´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ Ã§² º§Â ¶ ¬ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬ 110 16 24

8 -36 -45

-79 -77

-1

02FY

03FY

04FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

05FY

06FY

» Á È ¦³ª´ · µ¦ r

-28

-75

-100 -96

-137

-144 74 -264

-364 -401

07FY

08FY

09FY

-428

10FY

11FY

-454

'12/11mo

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦´ µ¨nª Ä® nÄ Ã¨ ¼ µ µ¦ rªnµ ³ ¦³Á «Å ¥ ¼ µ ªnµ ³ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ

´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È зѥчўєѥѕѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012 South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Russia Australia China Indonesia Brazil Taiwan Euro Area Thailand Malaysia India Pakistan

-6

-7.0

Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-9.7

µ »¨ ¦³¤µ Ä ¸ 2012 Ã ¥ µ 4% ° ¸ ¸¡¸

È 2.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 -0.7 -2.3 -2.5 -2.5 -2.7 -3.4 -4.0 -4.7 -6.0

6.6

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³Á¡·¤É ¼ ¹Ê Ä ¸ ¸Ê ´Ê Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ ® ¸Ê ¸¦É ´ µ¨ ¼Ão ¥ ¦ ´¥q 4.5a – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² ј Җѥьј Җѥьэѥъ 6.0

5.0

4.0 Public debt from State Enterprises 3.0

2.0

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

Sep-1

12%

10%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

· Â¨³´ nª n° ¸ ¸¡¸ µÁ® »®¨´ ¤µ µ ´¥q 4.5b – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ 50% 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35% 30%

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

25% 20% 15% 10%

Direct Government debt

5% 0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

Sep-12

External debt as percent of total

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³ ° Å ¥Å¤n °º ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ´¥q 4.6 – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Å Ä§ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ ,Ѩ 2011 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч 1 Zimbabwe 2 Japan 4 Greece 5 Lebanon 6 Iceland 9 Italy 10 Singapore 11 Ireland 13 Portugal 15 Belgium 17 Egypt 18 France 20 Canada 21 Hungary 22 Germany 23 UK 24 Bhutan 28 Bahrain 29 Israel 30 Austria 32 United States 33 Spain 38 Netherlands 40 Jordan 42 Pakistan Source: CIA fact book

2 208 165 137 130 120 118 107 103 100 86 86 84 83 82 80 79 75 74 72 69 68 64 61 60

¸É ¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¤µ ¦ µ µ µ µ · Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 31

44 Vietnam 47 Brazil 48 Malaysia 49 Switzerland 51 India 53 Philippines 56 Norway 67 UAE 69 China 72 Argentina 73 Turkey 78 Thailand 82 Mexico 86 Sweden 87 Bangladesh 91 South Africa 93 Taiwan 95 New Zealand 96 Korea, South 100 Australia 108 Indonesia 121 Iran 122 Hong Kong 123 Saudi Arabia 126 Russia

57 54 54 52 52 49 48 44 44 43 42 41 38 37 37 36 35 34 33 30 25 12 10 9 9 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

чѪѠьы.з. ецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.8% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэ

»¨ µ¦ Îµ¦³Á · ¸ ¹Ê Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ Á ¨º°É ¥oµ¥ » ¸ É ¸ ¹Ê ´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙ 31.3 24.7

24.1

17.1

4.5 1.2 07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

11FY

12/11mo

¸Ê µÁ® »®¨´ µ »¨ ¦· µ¦Â¨³ µ¦ º§ ´¥ n´ (F.O.B)

32.6 26.6

29.8

17.3 07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

17.0

8.1

11FY

12/11mo

º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥´¤Æ n¬º ¶ -11.0

-15.2

-10.7

-11.1 -19.7

-6.1

+ 07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12/11mo

21.3 2.5

2.2

1.4

-4.7 07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12/11mo

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2012 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q3

Taiwan Ͳ Q3 Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

7.0%

Malaysia Ͳ Q3

6.8% 4.5%

Russia Ͳ Q3 China Ͳ Q3

2.7%

South Korea Ͳ Oct

2.1%

Japan Ͳ Oct

1.0%

Euro Area Ͳ Oct

0.9%

Thailand Ͳ Q3

-0.1%

Pakistan Ͳ Q3

-2.0%

Indonesia Ͳ Q3

-2.3%

Brazil Ͳ Nov

-2.7%

US Ͳ Q3

-3.0%

Australia Ͳ Q3

-3.7%

India Ͳ Q2 Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-4.3%

ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ nª Ä® nÁ È Á«¦¬ ·

Last 12 months, USD Billion 14.9%

46.0

.1%

45.7 8.7 19.1 102.9 208.3 41.3 69.4 102.2 2.3 -2.9 -18.5 -51.8 -477.9 -52.2 -77.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

»¨ µ¦ oµÄ ¦¼ Á · µ · ¨ °¥nµ ® ´ Ä

´¥q 5.03 – º§ ´¥ n´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

593 432 257

-111 -275 -567 07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12/11MO

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition du (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balan (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balan

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê Export**

5,302

07FY

൞

5,851

08FY

6,113

6,708

6,540

11FY

12/11MO

6,983

7,107

11FY

12/11MO

5,195

09FY

10FY

Import***

5,962 4,870

07FY

5,857 4,602

08FY

09FY

10FY

ue to few adjustments nce of payment and exchange rate conversion nce of payment and exchange rate conversion

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¸ ¸Ê ´Ê Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 120 80 40 0 03YE

04YE

05YE

06YE

07Y

´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ

40.3%

40.9%

03YE

04YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

37.0%

38.5%

05YE

06YE

35.4%

07YE

Â¨³´ nª n° ¸ ¸¡¸

08YE

09YE

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

12/3Q

37.7%

12/3Q

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ nª ° ¨¼ ® ¸Ê £µ ¦´ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 5.11a – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

96%

08YE

92%

09YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

13%

15%

87%

85%

10YE

11YE

21%

79%

12/3Q

44%

56%

08YE

09YE

50%

10YE

46%

45%

54%

55%

11YE

12/3Q

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

ªµ¤µ¤µ¦ Ä µ¦ Îµ¦³® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «

418% 372% 340%

330%

306% 257%

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

11YE

12/3Q

° Å ¥¥´ Å¤n nµÁ È ¸ É ´ ª¨

10.3%

7.7%

7.3%

4.5%

07FY

08FY

09FY

3.7%

3.8%

10FY

11FY

12/3Q

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · Îµ¦° ¦³®ªnµ ¦³Á «¥´ ¤¸Á®¨º°Á¢º °

42.1

49.8

52.1

03YE

04YE

05YE

67.0

06YE

87.5

07YE

6.7

6.4

03YE

04YE

5.3

05YE

Җ јзҕѥьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯмјѨѕ (*) ѲнєѬ ѷ 12 ѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫч Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

6.2

06YE

7.5

07YE

째

172.1

175.1

181.6

10YE

11YE

Nov-12

9.2

8.8

11YE

Nov-12

138.4 111.0

08YE

09YE

12.4

11.3

7.4

08YE

09YE

10YE

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

nµÁ · µ ¥´ Â È nµ ¹Ê Ä Á º° . . ¹É 2% Á ¸¥ ´ »¨Á · Îµ ´ °ºÉ Ç ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´ 2007 = 100

104.0

Baht appreciates

103.0

102.0

MͲoͲM

0.3% YͲoͲY

1.8% Baht depreciates Dec-11

101.0

100.0 99.0 98.0 97.0 Dec-12

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´Ê ¸ Á · µ Â È nµ ¹Ê Á º°

´¥q 5.17b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § ¯ ¯³ ¥´Ã§ Â §·Ê¤ % ъѨѯѷ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ц њѤьъѨѷ 28/12/2012 MXN Ͳ 2.3714

4.4

KRW Ͳ 0.0287

4.4

PHP Ͳ 0.7583

3.5

SGD Ͳ 25.2835

2.7

GBP Ͳ 49.703

1.0

TWD Ͳ 1.0599

0.8

MYR Ͳ 10.1638

0.3

VND Ͳ 0.0015

0.0

EUR Ͳ 40.8603

-1.2

AUD Ͳ 32.0665

-1.3

CNY Ͳ 4.9882

-2.4

USD Ͳ 30.7775

-3.3 -6.7

INR Ͳ 0.5998 -9.3

IDR Ͳ 3.3984 JPY Ͳ 35.796

-13.2

Baht appreciates

Baht depreciates