Monthly Economic Brief February 2013 issue
Executive summary Growth Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% yͲoͲy, a rather disappointing level compared to the 4.4% growth in 2Q/2012. The growth was driven mainly by domestic consumption, public and private. On the production side, Manufacturing had a bad quarter and dragged the overall GDP growth while other sectors mostly contributed positively. Monthly MPI dropped slightly in December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while Agriculture production grew impressively. Private consumption and Private Investment grew impressively in 2012. FDI and Property sector have had impressive growths in the first 11 months of 2012. Export grew moderately, at 5.7%, in 2012 while Import grew 10.8%. Tourist arrivals grew at an impressive 15% in the period. Looking forward, both Fiscal and Monetary policies are proͲgrowth. Government spending in 2012 has increased substantially with compensation for flood victims and new investments among the extra items.
Market interest rates l October’s Policy rate c loan continued to incre to the policy rate cuts Businesses were less o and Consumers were l
In January, BOT revise 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 4.9%. The consensus p between 5.5Ͳ5.9% for 5.0% for 2013.
Employment and wea Unemployment rate h Thailand’s modern hist 0.39%; also the lowest emerging economies.
Thailand’s per capita in 4,420 in 2011, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average distribution in Thailand Asia but the trend has improving. Absolute Po to be working over the number of poor peopl current level is low by
lowered in response to cut to 2.75%. Bank’s ease, reacting positively earlier in 2012. optimistic. Industries ess pessimistic.
d up 2012 growth from 3 growth from 4.6% to projection is now 2012 and between 4.2Ͳ
alth distribution it the lowest point in tory in November at t level among major and
ncome was at USD 83rd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Income d is among the worst in been slightly overty reduction seems e past six years as e decreasing and international standard.
Stability Head line inflation dropped to 3.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a rather low level by historical and international standards. Banking system is quite healthy. Bank’s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. Total system’s NPL decreased in amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. Fiscal stability is still worrying as budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off than in 2011. Budget deficit for Thailand is expected to be Ͳ4% of GDP, a sizable level. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 43% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Balance of Payment improved in 2012 due largely to improving Net service and capital flow. External debt increased slightly but capability to repay is not a concern as debt service ratio remained low and international reserves is at healthy level. Thai Baht appreciated fast against a basket of key currencies in January .
2
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailand’s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
Page 4 7 13 22 29 32 35
38 41
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
45
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bank’s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
51 55 61 68
3
3% yearͲonͲyear growth for 3Q12 disaster Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent
7.1% 6.3%
CAGR* 2000Ͳ2011 = 3.9%
5.3%
4.8%
4.6%
5.1% 5.0
2.2%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
2 GDP, disappointing but no
7.8%
0%
4.4% 3.0%
2.5% 0.1%
0.4%
-2.3%
07 2008 2009 2010 2011
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
As early signs have indicated, Ma and dragged the overall GDP grow Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 3Q12 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 3.0
GDP
12.2
Mining
11.7
Agriculture
9.8
Construction
8.0
Transport
6.9
Hotel&Res Utilities
4.9
Health&Social
4.7
Private HH
4.6
RealEstate
4.4
Financial
4.2
PublicAdmin
4.1
Trading
4.1 3.6
Education 1.0
Other social -1.1
Manufacture Fishing
-6.4
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
nufacturing had a bad quarter wth Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 3Q12 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 3.0
GDP 0.8
Transport
0.6
Agriculture
0.5
Trading Hotel&Res
0.3
Mining
0.3
Construction
0.2
Financial
0.2
Utilities
0.2
RealEstate
0.2
PublicAdmin
0.1
Education
0.1
Health&Social
0.1
Other social
0.0
Private HH
0.0
Fishing
-0.1
Manufacture -0.4
5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Growth in 3Q12 was mainly contr consumptions
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 3Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
3.0
G
9.
C
6.0
I
ͲM
X
-1.4
-1.8
-2.8
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
ributed from domestic
Q12 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 3Q12
0
Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
3.0
C
3.1
ͲM
1.2
G
1.1
Discrpncy
0.3
I
X
-0.3
-2.2
6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailand’s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bank’s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
7
MPI dropped slightly from Novem December 2011
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
4.1% 190.1 172.4 159.5
179.1 166.3
149.9 137.6 123.9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
mber but still a lot higher than
Monthly Average 250.0
172.9
177.2
200.0
2012
150.0
MͲoͲM 100.0
2011
Ͳ6.3% YͲoͲY
23.4% 50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most industries had their product
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector December 2012, percent
121.4
Vehicles 60.7
Office automate Electrical
28.5
Machineries
26.6 13.7
Electronic Basic Mat
9.8
Metal products
9.6
Rubber&Plastic
7.9
Precision instru
7.9
Transport Equip
6.5
Mineral
5.4
Textiles
4.0
Petroleum
2.4
Food & Bev
0.0
Chemical
-4.9
Paper
-5.6
Leather
-8.1
Tobacco
-13.4
Furniture
-16.3
Wood products
-16.5
Apparel
-16.9
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
tion decreased from November
4
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector December 2012, percent -19.5 -9.6 -10.2 -8.9 -3.6 -16.6 3.6 -6.3 23.2 -2.0 -5.8 -5.1 5.9 7.2 -5.5 -1.8 -13.0 -25.9 -0.8 1.8 -0.4
9
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capacity utilization rate dropped
Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent
67.2
Jul-12
66.1
68.4 64.9
Aug-12 Sep-12
68.9 63.8
Oct-12
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Nov-12 Dec-12
slightly in December
Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector December 2012, percent Precision instru Vehicles Petroleum Chemical Transport Equip Office automate Electrical Mineral Machineries Rubber&Plastic Paper Food & Bev Metal products Electronic Basic Mat Tobacco Textiles Apparel Furniture Leather Wood products
130.0 93.2 84.2 77.5 74.5 70.5 69.9 67.7 64.3 63.5 62.8 61.5 60.2 48.8 44.1 43.4 40.7 36.8 32.9 25.5 18.6
10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s MPI grew the most in t year’s low base
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Thailand Ͳ Dec Indonesia Ͳ Nov China Ͳ Dec Malaysia Ͳ Nov Pakistan Ͳ Nov Australia Ͳ Q3 Taiwan Ͳ Dec
2.4
US Ͳ Dec
2.2 1.4
Russia Ͳ Dec
0.8
South Korea Ͳ Dec India Ͳ Nov
-0.1
Hong Kong Ͳ Q3
-0.1 -0.6
Singapore Ͳ Dec
-1.0
Brazil Ͳ Nov Euro Area Ͳ Dec Japan Ͳ Dec -7.8 Source: The Economist
-3.7
the latest period, thanks to last
x 23.4 20.1 10.3 7.5 6.5 4.3
11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Agriculture production ended the growth in December, taking 2012 Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100) CAGR
3.1%
106.7
113.2 112.5 110.2 111.8
100.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
e year strongly with 1.4% yͲoͲy 2 growth to 6%
Monthly Average 250.0
128.2
120.9
200.0
YͲoͲY 1.4% MͲoͲM Ͳ17.1%
150.0
2012 100.0
2011 50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
12 nd Cooperatives
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailand’s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bank’s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
13
Private consumption dropped slig 2012 with impressive growth
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
3.0%
111.2
117.8
125.5 121.5 123.7
129.8
133.2 126.4
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
ghtly from November but ended
Index* Monthly Average 155.0
145.5
150.0
2012
137.9
11-Avg 12-Avg
145.0
2011
140.0
135.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ2.9% 130.0
YͲoͲY
3.1% 125.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
All key consumption expenditure despite a little set back in Decem Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change Full year 2012 vs 2011, percent
82.6
Passenger Car (Unit)
71.9
Commercial Car (Unit) 20.7
NGV (kg.) LPG (litre)
14.9
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
14.1
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
11.3
Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
10.1
Diesel (litre)
7.8
Motocycle (Unit)
6.1
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
5.4
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
s grew impressively in 2012 ber
6
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change Dec vs Nov 2012, percent -27.3 -13.7 -3.8 0.1 -6.4 4.8 -11.9 -7.0 6.5 -1.7
15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment had a good ye
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
6.4%
169.5 172.1 171.8 154.9
186.5
178.0 156.5
132.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
ear in 2012
Monthly Average 300.0
232.0
250.0
202.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
2012 2011
200.0
150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.8%
YͲoͲY
28.2% 50.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
All key private investment expend 2012 Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change Full year 2012 vs 2011, percent
Domestic commercial car sales (unit)
54
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
23.8
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
12.1
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
10.9
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
1.7
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ditures had impressive growth in
4.9
Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change Dec vs Nov 2012, percent
-5.6
-0.1
-0.5
-2.1
-1.6
17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
FDI grew 21% in the first 11 mont period last year Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD 11,331
9,460
9,112 8,547
8,048
4,853
05FY
06FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
07FY
08FY
09FY
10FY
ths of 2012 compared to same
Monthly cumulative FDI* 10,000 9,000
2012 8,000 7,000
7,778
11FY
2011 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
BOI’s net application for grew a fu
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign di Billion Baht
68
351 297
23
08FY
09FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
10F
urther 63% in 2012
irect investment*
8%
63%
648
396
36
FY
11FY
12FY
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Japan has been the biggest source
Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* break Percent of total
Others
20%
17%
USA ANIEs
3% 6%
10%
ASEAN
15%
12% 12%
Europe
23% 27%
Japan
35% 22%
08FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis
09FY
e of FDI for Thailand
kdown by country group
11% 23%
27%
4% 10%
3% 6% 6%
2% 7% 8%
17%
44%
10FY
7% 10%
7%
49%
11FY
58%
12FY 20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Property sector largely has had a
Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change First 11 months of 2012 vs 2011, percent
85
Condo unit registered
31.7
New housing unit
11.0
Value of land transaction
Constr. Area in municipal
-2.2
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
good year so far in 2012
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change Nov vs Oct 2012, percent
5.3
2.5
13.9
33.7
-42.1
21 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailand’s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bank’s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
22
Export grew 5.7% in 2012, driven was the main drag
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in Full year 2012 vs 2011, percent Total export Automotive Metal Photo instru Petroleum Mining ReͲexports Other export Toiletries Optical instru Agro products Other manufacturing Electrical Jewellery Chemicals Machinery Forestry Electronics PetroͲchemical Furniture Fishery Aircrafts Apparels Footware Agriculture
5.7
29.5 24.2 21.9 18.9 17.2 14.6 14.4 9.8 7.2 6.7 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.4 0.7 -0.8 -4.7 -5.7 -9.8 -18.2 -20.2
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
by Automotive but Agriculture Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions
5
Contributions to total export growth Total export Automotive Metal Petroleum Agro products Electronics Other export Machinery Electrical Photo instru Other manufacturing Chemicals Mining Jewellery Toiletries Optical instru PetroͲchemical Forestry ReͲexports Furniture Fishery Footware Aircrafts Apparels Agriculture
5.7 3.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -2.2
23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
EU was the main problem for exp
Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term 5.3
5.9
5.2
6.1
6.
Middle East
4.9
5.4
5.7
5.0
4.
EU
14.1
13.2
11.9
11.3
10
11.8
11.3
10.3
10.5
10
12.7
12.2
11.7
11
18.4
18.1
17
21
100% =
Japan NAFTA Rest of the world
14.1 14.5
16.6
East Asia exͲJapan
19.4
18.3
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
21.3
22.5
21.3
23.0
24
07FY
08FY
09FY
10FY
11F
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
port in 2012
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, Full year of 2012 vs 2011
7 (Trillion)
7
15.7%
Middle East
.9
.7
.1
.4
.0
10.0%
Rest of the world NAFTA
7.8%
ASEAN
7.6%
East Asia ex Japan
5.9%
Japan
0.8%
.3
EU
-7.4%
FY 24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capital goods has contributed mo
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in Full year of 2012 vs 2011, percent
10.8
Total import
28.3
Capital goods
15.8
Consumer goods
12.1
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
4.2
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
Others
-2.9
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ost to import growth in 2012
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total import growth
10.8
Total import
6.0
Capital goods
2.3
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
1.7
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
1.2
Consumer goods
Others
-0.4
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capital goods, Consumer goods a in overall import in 2012
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classificatio Percent of total import in Baht term Ѯ 4.9
Ѯ 6.0
Ѯ 4.6
Others
6.7
8.0
7.8
Capital goods
20.4
19.3
22.3
Intermediate – NonͲFuel
47.5
44.8
43.0
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
18.4
20.7
18.6
Consumer goods
7.0
7.1
8.3
07FY
08FY
09FY
100% =
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
nd Fuel have gained their shares
n
6
Y
Ѯ 5.9
Ѯ 7.0
Ѯ 7.7
10.2
12.4
10.9
21.3
24.6
44.0
40.0
37.6
17.4
18.9
19.1
7.5
7.5
7.8
10FY
11FY
12FY
20.9
(Trillion)
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist arrivals increased 15% in 2
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
6.6%
13.8 11.7 10.8
14.5
14.6
14.1
11.5
10.0
02FY 03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY Source: Department of Tourism
2012
Monthly cumulative 19.2
25.0
2012 15.9
Y 10FY 11FY
20.0
15.0
2011
10.0
5.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist structure does not change important market
Chart 5.19 – International Tourist Arrivals bre Percent of total
Rest of world
14.0
14.3
15.3
Americas
6.4
6.2
6.0
Europe
27.0
27.3
28.7
East Asia
52.6
52.1
50.0
07FY
08FY
09FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
e much with East Asia as the most
eakdown by country of nationality
Y
15.6
14.7
14.0
5.3
5.0
4.8
27.9
26.5
24.9
51.2
53.8
56.2
10FY
11FY
2012/12M 28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailand’s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bank’s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
29
29% increase in fiscal expenditure
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
e in 2012
2012
2011
J
A
S
O
N
D
30
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Policy rate remains at 2.75% whil moved down in response to Octo Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% Feb-12
2.60% Jan-13
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Feb-12
0.00% Jan-13
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
e inter bank overnight rate ober’s policy rate cut Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% Jan-13
Feb-12
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min
5.00% 2.50%
Feb-12
anches
0.00% Jan-13
31 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailand’s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bank’s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
32
Businesses were less optimistic w pessimistic in December Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better 51.7
50.2
49.9
52.1
52.0
50.6
50
Worse
0 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
while Industries were less
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
98.7
98.5
94.1
93.0
95.2
98.8
Worse
0 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
33 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Consumers were in overall less pe
Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index 200
Better
100
On future incom
Worse
0 Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 200 100 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior m Over 100 means consumer confidence is better than those of th Under 100 means consumer confidence is worse than those of t
Source: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, UTC
essimistic in December
me
On job Overall
Jul-12
Aug-12 Sep-12
month he prior month the prior month
CC
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
35
BOT revised up both 2012 and 20
Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2012, Annual percentage change 7.00
6.50
The Economist poll
BOT
6.00
NESDB FPO
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
13 growth projections
omist
Chart 1.03b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2013, Annual percentage change 7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
FPO 5.00
NESDB BOT
4.50
The Economist poll 4.00 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Forecast as of, month ending 36 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth for 2012 is exp and Indonesia
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2012, Annual % change, as of Feb 1st 2013 7.
China 6.3
Indonesia
5.8
Thailand
5.4
India
5.2
Malaysia 4.2
Pakistan
3.7
Russia
3.4
Australia South Korea
2.2
US
2.2
Japan
1.8
Hong Kong
1.7
Singapore
1.2
Taiwan
1.1
Brazil
1.0
Euro Area -0.4
Source: The Economist
ected to be behind only China
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2013, Annual % change, as of Feb 1st 2013
8
8.5 6.4 4.2 6.5 4.5 3.5 3.6 2.8 3.3 2.0 0.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.5 -0.1 37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
38
Unemployment rate hit the lowes history in November Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent 2.4
02-Avg
2.2
2.1
03-Avg
1.8
04-Avg
0.81 0.66
05-Avg
1.5
06-Av
0.97
0.9
Apr-12
May-
0.73
0.43
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
st point in Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s modern
vg
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.0 0.7
07-Avg
08-Avg
09-Avg
10-Avg
11-Avg
2
-12
0.67
0.56
0.56
0.63
0.56 0.39
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
39 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ Nov Singapore Ͳ Q4
0.4 1.8
South Korea Ͳ Dec
2.9
Malaysia Ͳ Nov
2.9
Hong Kong Ͳ Dec
3.3
China Ͳ Q4
4.1
Japan Ͳ Nov
4.1
Taiwan Ͳ Dec
4.2
Brazil Ͳ Nov
4.9
Russia Ͳ Dec
5.
Australia Ͳ Dec
5
Pakistan Ͳ 2011 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 US Ͳ Dec India Ͳ 2011 Euro Area Ͳ Nov Source: The Economist
lowest comparing to other
.3
5.4 6.0 6.1 7.8 9.8 11.8
40 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
41
Slight improvement in Thailand’s
Chart 2.01 – Thailand’s GINI coefficient
0.520
0.513
0.507
1994
1996
1998
0.522
2000
0
2
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
income distribution since 2007
0.507
2002
0.493
2004
0.515
2006
0.499
2007
0.485
2009
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
42
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Not much has changed for income
Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
1
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
1
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
1
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
1
e (in)equality in Thailand
13.1
14.6
13.2
12.1
13.9
12.5
11.3
56.1
57.5
55.9
54.9
56.1
54.9
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.2
20.0
20.2
20.1
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.4
12.1
12.4
12.6
7.8
7.3 4.0
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.4
4.2
4.5
4.0
4.4
4.8
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
4.3
998
43 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
44
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
45
Poverty reduction, according to fi have been working over the past Chart 2.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailand Poverty Line Baht/ month/ person 1,678
1,386
2006
Source: NESDB
1,579
1,586
2008
2009
1,443
2007
2010
igures from NESDB, seems to 7 years Chart 2.04b – Number of poor people Million 6.10
2006
5.40
2007
5.80
2008
5.30
5.08
2009
2010
8.1%
7.8%
2009
2010
Chart 2.04c – Poor people Percentage of total population 9.6%
2006
8.5%
9.0%
2007
2008
46 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2011, Atlas method (current US$) Norway (1) Qatar (2) Luxembourg (3) Switzerland (4) Denmark (5) Sweden (6) Netherlands (7) US (8) Finland (9) Austria (10) Belgium (11) Canada (12) Japan (13) Germany (14) Singapore (15) France (16) UAE (17) Ireland (18) UK (19) Italy (20) Hong Kong (21) Iceland (22) Spain (23) Israel (24) Greece (25)
Source: The World Bank
60,390 53,230 49,730 48,450 48,420 48,300 46,160 45,560 45,180 43,980 42,930 42,420 40,760 38,580 37,780 35,330 35,160 35,020 30,990 28,930 25,030
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 88,890 80,440 78,130
76,380
Czech Republic (29) Hungary (36) Brazil (46) Turkey (47) Argentina (49) Mexico (51) Malaysia (53) South Africa (65) Colombia (69) China (78) Thailand (83) Ecuador (85) Ukraine (100) Indonesia (103) Iraq (108) Egypt (109) Sri Lanka (110) Philippines (113) Bhutan (115) India (122) Vietnam (124) Nigeria (127) Lao PDR (130) Cambodia (139) Bangladesh (142)
18,520 12,730 10,720 10,410 9,740 9,240 8,420 6,960 6,110 4,930 4,420 4,140 3,120 2,940 2,640 2,600 2,580 2,210 2,070 1,410 1,260 1,200 1,130 830 770 48
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th to 81st, with GNI per capita almos
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2011, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Luxembourg (2) Norway (3) Singapore (4) Switzerland (5) Hong Kong (6) US (7) UAE (8) Netherlands (9) Sweden (10) Austria (11) Denmark (12) Germany (13) Canada (14) Belgium (15) Australia (16) Finland (17) UK (18) France (19) Japan (20) Ireland (21) Italy (22) Spain (23) Iceland (24) Korea, Rep. (25)
Source: The World Bank
64,260 61,460 59,380 52,570 52,350 48,820 47,890 43,140 42,200 42,050 41,900 40,230 39,660 39,190 38,110 37,670 36,010 35,910 35,330 34,180 32,400 31,400 31,020 30,370
hailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rank improved slightly st the same as China
es
( ) = World rank 86,440
Israel (26) Greece (30) Saudi Arabia (31) Czech Republic (33) Russia (36) Croatia (40) Turkey (44) Malaysia (47) Mexico (48) Mauritius (55) Brazil (63) South Africa (68) China (80) Thailand (81) Bhutan (92) Sri Lanka (93) Indonesia (102) Philippines (106) India (112) Vietnam (116) Lao PDR (119) Cambodia (126) Bangladesh (132) Nepal (145) Ethiopia (150)
27,110 25,100 24,700 24,370 20,560 18,760 16,940 15,650 15,390 14,330 11,420 10,710 8,390 8,360 5,570 5,520 4,500 4,140 3,590 3,250 2,580 2,230 1,940 1,260 1,110 49
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
2009
23,236
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
17,403
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
50
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
51
Both Head line and Core inflation
Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 4.00%
3.6% 3.4%
3.50% 3.00%
3.4%
3.3% 2.7%
2.7%
Head line
2.50% 2.00%
1.8%
1.9%
1.8%
1.9%
1.8%
1.6%
Core*
1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Aug-12 Sep-12
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
n decreased slightly in January
3
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product January 2013, percent 17.2
Veg & fruit 10.8
Energy 7.6
Tobacco & alcohol 3.3
Housing & furnishing Prepared food at home
3.0
Transport & Commu
3.0
Eggs & milk
2.9
Food away from home
2.5
Non alcoholic beverage
2.3
Medical care
1.2
Meat
1.1
Apparel and footware
1.0
Rice
0.6
Seasoning
0.5
Recreation & Education
0.5
52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Apart from India and Pakistan an inflation in leading economies see Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
India Ͳ Dec Pakistan Ͳ Dec Russia Ͳ Dec 5
Brazil Ͳ Dec Indonesia Ͳ Dec
4.3
Singapore Ͳ Dec
4.3 3.8
Hong Kong Ͳ Dec
3.4
Thailand Ͳ Jan Euro Area Ͳ Dec
2.2
Australia Ͳ Q4
2.2 2.5
China Ͳ Dec US Ͳ Dec
1.7
Taiwan Ͳ Dec
1.6
South Korea Ͳ Dec
1.4
Malaysia Ͳ Dec
1.2
Japan Ͳ Dec Note: (*) The Economist Poll Source: The Economist
-0.1
d to certain extent Russia, ems to be manageable 2012* 10.6
9.2
7.9
9.7
6.5
5.1
.8
5.4 4.3 4.5 4.1 3.0 2.5 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.7 -0.1
53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Inflation at Producer level decrea level Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5% 1.1% 0.9%
1.0% 0.6%
0.6%
0.5% 0.1%
0.1%
0.0% Aug-12 Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
ased slightly to 0.6%, a very low
3
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product January 2013, percent Fishing Livestocks Crop Metal Food Mechinery Chemical Leather & footware Transport equip NonͲmetallic mineral Pulp & paper Wood Textile Other manu goods Forestry Electrical equip Basic metals Petroluem products Rubber & plastic Energy
6.1 3.7 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -2.9 -3.8 -4.1 -6.0
54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
55
Bank’s loan continued to increase tightened slightly Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
Ma
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95% 90%
89.9%
89.6%
89.6%
90.2%
91.7%
9
85% 80% Dec-11 Jan-12
Source: Bank of Thailand
Feb-12 Mar-12
Apr-12 M
e while liquidity in the system
MͲoͲM
1.6% YͲoͲY
14.5%
ay-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
90.8%
91.4%
91.1%
Nov-12
it* ratio
92.8%
92.4%
91.9%
May-12 Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12 Sep-12
92.2%
Oct-12 Nov-12
56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL decreased in both the loan in 2012
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht 592 477
05YE
06YE
445
458
07YE
08YE
401
09YE
380
10Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans
10.73% 8.16%
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
7.47%
07YE
7.31%
08YE
5.29%
4.85
09YE
10Y
amount and percentage of total
ss NPLs Outstanding
0
YE
317
11YE
269
12YE
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
5%
YE
3.60%
11YE
2.74%
12YE
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 57 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio rose to 16% in
Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets 20.0% 16.0%
13.0%
13.4%
2002
2003
12.4%
13.3%
13
2004
2005
2
12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0%
16.5% 16.0% 15.5% 15.0%
15.2% 14.8%
14.8%
15.0%
15.2%
1
14.5% 14.0%
Dec-11 Jan-12
Feb-12 Mar-12
Apr-12 M
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
n November
nks*
3.9%
2006
15.1%
14.9%
14.0%
2007
2008
16.1%
2009
2010
15.6% 15.0%
14.9%
May-12 Jun-12
Jul-12
anches
15.8%
15.6%
Aug-12 Sep-12
15.9%
14.8%
2011
16.0%
Oct-12 Nov-12
58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand is one of the many coun rates Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Feb 1st 2013
൞
3M riskͲfree interest rates
9.3
Pakistan 8.0
India
7.4
Russia
7.0
Brazil 5.0
Indonesia 3.9
China Malaysia
3.2
Australia
3.2 2.8
South Korea
2.6
Thailand Taiwan Hong Kong
0.9 0.5
US
0.3
Singapore
0.3
Euro Area
0.2
Japan
0.2
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-0.
tries with negative real interest
1
=
Expected 2012 inflation*
Real interest rates
9.7
-0.4
9.2
-1.2
5.1
2.3
5.4
1.6
4.3
0.7
2.6
1.3
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.4
2.2
0.6
3.0
-0.5
1.9
-1.0 4.1
2.1
-1.8 4.5
2.5
-3.6
-4.2 -2.3 0.3
59
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Another profitable month for SET to come in Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end
5.8% 2.3% Aug-12
Sep-12
5.1% 0.0%
1.9%
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
5.9%
Jan-13
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, 2012, Billion Baht, Month end 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
D-12 J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13 J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
E
T as foreign fund flow continued Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2011 Percent, as of Jan 30th 2013 51.6%
Pakistan (KSE)
45.4%
Thailand (SET) 32.4%
Germany (DAX)
31.4%
Japan (Nikkei 225) India (BSE)
29.4%
HK (Hang Seng)
29.2% 27.1%
China (SSEB, $ terms)
24.2%
Singapore (STI) US (NAScomp)
20.6%
Australia (All Ord.)
19.7%
US (S&P 500)
19.4%
France (CAC 40)
19.2%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
18.6% 16.5%
Indonesia (JSX) US (DJIA)
13.9%
UK (FTSE 100)
13.5%
Taiwan (TWI)
10.8%
China (SSEA)
8.2%
S Korea (KOSPI)
7.6%
Malaysia (KLSE)
6.3%
60 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
61
Government finance continues to
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 1.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1% -0.5% -0.6%
-2.0%
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
-1.7%
07FY
o improve in 2011
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
-1.1% -1.1%
-1.3%
% -2.6%
-4.0% -4.4%
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Budget deficit for the whole 2012 2011 Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
Revenue 877
Budget balance
1,013
16
-79
1,109
0
1,241
-36
1,390
1,455
1,498
1
110 -174
-100
-
-956
-996
-1,109 -1,277
Expenditure
-1,280 -1,629
-1,598
-1
02FY 03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 0 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
2 is 387 billion worse off than in
Monthly cumulative Budget balance 1,751
1,902
100.0
,484 0.0
2011
-100.0
-75
-28
-364
1,849
-200.0
2012
-300.0
-1,825
-1,930
9FY 10FY 11FY
-400.0
-500.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Apart from 2010, there were not budget and cash balance Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
110 16 24
0
88
8 -36 -45
-79 -77
-1
02FY
03FY
04FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
05FY
06FY
much differences between
plus)
-28
-75
-100 -96
-137
-144 74 -264
-364 -401
-414 -446
07FY
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
'12/12mo
64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand is expected to have a bu 2012, a sizable level
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2012*, percent South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Russia Australia China Taiwan Indonesia Brazil Euro Area Thailand Malaysia India Pakistan
-6
US
-7.0
Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll Source: The Economist
-9.8
udget deficit of 4% of GDP in
ercentage of GDP 2.1 1.2 1.1 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 -2.3 -2.4 -2.5 -3.3 -4.0 -4.7 -6.1
6.6
65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Public debt increased in absolute due mainly to direct government Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0
4.0 Public debt from State Enterprises 3.0
2.0
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2008
2009
2010
2011
Nov-1
12%
10%
8%
8%
7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
and relative to GDP this year, debt Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30% 25%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
12
2008
External debt as percent of total
2009
2010
2011
Nov-12
66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2011 or latest 1 Zimbabwe 2 Japan 4 Greece 5 Lebanon 6 Iceland 9 Italy 10 Singapore 11 Ireland 13 Portugal 15 Belgium 17 Egypt 18 France 20 Canada 21 Hungary 22 Germany 23 UK 24 Bhutan 28 Bahrain 29 Israel 30 Austria 32 United States 33 Spain 38 Netherlands 40 Jordan 42 Pakistan Source: CIA fact book
2 208 165 137 130 120 118 107 103 100 86 86 84 83 82 80 79 75 74 72 69 68 64 61 60
compared to international Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 31
44 Vietnam 47 Brazil 48 Malaysia 49 Switzerland 51 India 53 Philippines 56 Norway 67 UAE 69 China 72 Argentina 73 Turkey 78 Thailand 82 Mexico 86 Sweden 87 Bangladesh 91 South Africa 93 Taiwan 95 New Zealand 96 Korea, South 100 Australia 108 Indonesia 121 Iran 122 Hong Kong 123 Saudi Arabia 126 Russia
57 54 54 52 52 49 48 44 44 43 42 41 38 37 37 36 35 34 33 30 25 12 10 9 9
67
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 3Q/2012, grew 3.0% • Monthly MPI dropped slightly in Agriculture production grew imp • Private consumption and Private picked up strongly in November • Moderate growth for Export in 2 • Both Fiscal and Monetary policie • Businesses were less optimistic. • BOT revised up 2012 growth fro the consensus projection is now 2013
• Unemployment rate hit the lowe 0.39%; also the lowest level am • Thailand’s Income distribution is past 5 years. • Absolute Poverty reduction seem poor people decreasing and curr
• Head line inflation dropped to 3 rather low level by historical and • Banking system is quite healthy. Total system’s NPL decreased in • Fiscal stability is still worrying as than in 2011. Public debt is incre • Balance of Payment has improve dangerous. THB appreciated fas
% y-o-y, a disappointing level compared to 2Q/2012 December but grew 3% for the whole year 2012; while pressively e Investment grew impressively in 2012. Property sector . 2012. Tourist arrivals grew impressively. es are pro-growth. Industries and Consumers were less pessimistic. om 5.7% to 5.9% and 2013 growth from 4.6% to 4.9%; w between 5.5-5.9% for 2012 and between 4.2-5.0% for
est point in Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s modern history in November at mong major and emerging economies. s among the worst in Asia but has been improving in the
ms to be working over the past six years as number of rent level is low by international standard.
.4% in January, while Core inflation dropped to 1.6%, a d international standards . Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio increased to 16% in November. n amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. s budget deficits in 2012 is THB 387 billion worse off easing but not too worrying just yet. ed. External debt has been increasing but still not st in January.
68
Improving Balance of Payment th service income and capital movem
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.7
24.1
17.1
1.2 07FY
08FY
09FY
10FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
11FY
5.3 12/12mo
hanks to improvement in net ment Trade Balance (F.O.B)
on
32.6 26.6
29.8
17.3 07FY
08FY
09FY
10FY
17.0
8.3
11FY
12/12mo
Net service income & transfer -11.0
-15.2
-10.7
08FY
-5.6
-19.7
+ 07FY
-11.1
09FY
10FY
11FY
12/12mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 22.5
21.3 2.5
2.2
1.4
-4.7 07FY
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12/12mo
69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2012 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q3 Taiwan Ͳ Q3 Hong Kong Ͳ Q3 Malaysia Ͳ Q3
4.5%
Russia Ͳ Q2
2.8%
China Ͳ Q3
2.2%
South Korea Ͳ Dec Japan Ͳ Nov
1.0%
Euro Area Ͳ Nov
1.0% -0.1%
Thailand Ͳ Q4 Pakistan Ͳ Q4
-1.6%
Indonesia Ͳ Q3
-2.6%
Brazil Ͳ Dec
-2.6%
US Ͳ Q3 Australia Ͳ Q3 India Ͳ Q3 Note: (*) The Economist Poll Source: The Economist
-3.0% -3.7% -4.2%
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 46.0
15.0%
45.7
9.8%
6.4
7.8%
19.1
6.9%
81.2
%
208.5 43.3 65.5 135.5 2.7 -2.0 -18.5 -54.2 -477.9 -52.2 -80.6
70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Worsened trade balance in 2012 a export Chart 5.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Trade balance* decomposition Billion Baht
593 432 257
-111 -275
-647 07FY
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of p (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of p
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
as import grew faster than
Export**
5,302
07FY
Ͳ
5,851
08FY
6,113
6,708
7,091
5,195
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Import***
6,983 5,962 4,870
07FY
7,739
5,857 4,602
08FY
w adjustments ayment and exchange rate conversion payment and exchange rate conversion
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt level increased in b terms Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0 03YE
04YE
05YE
06YE
07Y
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
40.3%
40.9%
03YE
04YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
37.0%
38.5%
05YE
06YE
35.4%
07YE
both absolute and relative to GDP
YE
%
E
08YE
09YE
31.4%
28.8%
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
35.2%
33.7%
10YE
11YE
12/3Q
37.7%
12/3Q
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
More public debt and more longͲ composition in 2012 Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
4%
96%
08YE
8%
92%
09YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
13%
15%
87%
85%
10YE
11YE
21%
79%
12/3Q
term debt in external debt
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
44%
44%
56%
56%
08YE
09YE
50%
50%
10YE
46%
45%
54%
55%
11YE
12/3Q
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt 418% 372% 340%
330%
306% 257%
07YE
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12/3Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
10.3%
7.7%
7.3%
4.5%
07FY
08FY
09FY
3.7%
3.8%
10FY
11FY
12/3Q
74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
International reserves increased s level is still considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level Billion USD
42.1
49.8
52.1
03YE
04YE
05YE
67.0
06YE
87.5
07YE
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
6.7
6.4
03YE
04YE
5.3
05YE
6.2
06YE
7.5
07YE
Note: (*) For the last period using average monthly import value during t
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
slightly this year and the current
172.1
175.1
181.6
10YE
11YE
Dec-12
9.2
8.8
11YE
Dec-12
138.4 111.0
5
E
08YE
09YE
er of months of import*
E
12.4
11.3
7.4
08YE
the last 12 months
09YE
10YE
75 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB appreciated fast against mos
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
108.0
Baht appreciates MͲoͲM
2.8%
106.0
104.0
102.0
100.0
YͲoͲY
6.4% Baht depreciates Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
98.0 96.0 Jan-13
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
st currencies in January
e
0
0
0
0
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Jan 31st 2013 1.3
PHP Ͳ 0.745 -0.4
KRW Ͳ 0.0275
-1.3
EUR Ͳ 40.6736
-2.0
MXN Ͳ 2.3518 SGD Ͳ 24.2814
-2.8
CNY Ͳ 4.8585
-2.8
TWD Ͳ 1.0129
-3.2
GBP Ͳ 47.3676
-3.7
USD Ͳ 29.9118
-4.1
MYR Ͳ 9.7592
-5.6
AUD Ͳ 31.2831
-6.1
VND Ͳ 0.0014
-6.7
INR Ͳ 0.6003
-10.6
IDR Ͳ 3.2928
-11.2
JPY Ͳ 33.0484
-19.6
Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates 76
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com