Monthly Economic Brief March 2013 issue
Executive summary Growth Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the growth for the whole year of 2012 was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. On the expenditure side, the growth was driven by all key expenditures. On the production side, the growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing. Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10.1% yearͲ onͲyear growth in January 2013; while Agriculture production grew slightly. Private consumption and Private Investment continue to grow impressively into 2013. Export grew quite strongly, at 13%, in January, driven mainly by Automotive, Metal and Electronics. There were growth in all major export markets. On the other hand, Import grew at a whopping rate of 38%. Tourist arrivals grew at an impressive 13% in the period. Looking forward, both Fiscal and Monetary policies are proͲgrowth. Government spending in the first month of 2013 has increased 38% compared to the same period last year. Policy rate remains at 2.75%, a rather low level, while other interest rates in the market hardly change in February.
Confidence in private s Businesses were more more pessimistic and C pessimistic.
Actual GDP growth in 2 consensus projections February, BOT and the up their projections fo projection is now betw
Employment and wea Unemployment rate in December, and the av year decreased slightly has the lowest unemp major and emerging ec
Thailand’s per capita in 4,420 in 2011, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
sector was a mixed one. e optimistic, Industries Consumers less
2012 beat the by a high margin. In e Economist poll revised or 2013; the consensus ween 4.6%Ͳ5.6%.
alth distribution ncreased slightly in erage for the whole y from 2011. Thailand loyment level among conomies.
ncome was at USD 83rd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Stability Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather low level by historical and international standards. Banking system is quite healthy. Bank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total system’s NPL decreased in amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. Budget deficit for Thailand was at Ͳ3.6% of GDP, a sizable level . And the deficits continue into 2013 as Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 billion worse off than the same period last year. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly in 2012 due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 44% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Balance of Payment so far in 2013 is positive thanks to net capital inflow. External debt increased slightly but capability to repay is not a concern as debt service ratio remained low and international reserves is at healthy level. Thai Baht continued to appreciate fast against a basket of key currencies in February .
2
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
Page
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
4
7 13 22 29 32 35
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
38
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
41
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
51
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
68
45
55 61
3
2012 ended impressively with the significantly higher than consensu Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent
7.1%
CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 = 4.3%
5.3%
6.3% 4.6%
2.2%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
e real growth of 6.4%, us projections
18.9%
7.8% 6.4% 4.4% 3.0%
5%
0.1%
0.4%
-2.3%
08 2009 2010 2011 2012
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Manufacturing recovery was the GDP growth Chart 1.07a – Real growth by sector, 2012 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 6.4
GDP
11.5
Hotel&Res 9.6
Utilities Transport
8.0
Construction
7.8 7.4
Mining
7.0
Manufacture
6.6
Financial Trading
5.2
Education
5.0
Health&Social
4.6
Agriculture
4.4
Other social
4.1
RealEstate
3.9
PublicAdmin
3.6
Private HH Fishing -3.0 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
2.3
main reason for impressive 2012
Chart 1.07b – Sectoral contributions, 2012 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 6.4
GDP 2.7
Manufacture Transport
0.8
Trading
0.7
Hotel&Res
0.5
Utilities
0.3
Agriculture
0.3
Financial
0.3
Construction
0.2
Mining
0.2
RealEstate
0.2
Education
0.1
PublicAdmin
0.1
Other social
0.1
Health&Social
0.1
Private HH
0.0
Fishing
0.0
5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
For the whole year of 2012, grow domestic demand (I and C)
Chart 1.09a – Real growth by expenditure, 20 YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
6.4
I
17.0
G
7.4
C
6.6
ͲM
X
6.2
2.9
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
wth was driven mainly by
012 Chart 1.09b – Expenditure Contributions, 2012 Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
6.4
I
3.7
C
3.4
X
2.2
G
0.7
Discrpncy
ͲM
0.0
-3.7
6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
7
Manufacturing started 2013 stron growth in January
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
4.1% 190.1 172.4 159.5
179.1 166.3
149.9 137.6 123.9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
ngly with 10.1% yearͲonͲyear
Monthly Average 250.0
172.9
177.2
200.0
2012
2013 150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM 0.1% YͲoͲY 10.1%
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most industries had their product
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector January 2013, percent 72.4
Vehicles 31.2
Electrical
28.3
Basic Mat
23.0
Machineries
14.8
Textiles
12.1
Leather Rubber&Plastic
7.1
Furniture
5.7
Chemical
5.2
Mineral
5.0
Food & Bev
4.9
Precision instru
4.2
Office automate
1.4
Electronic
1.0
Paper
-2.4
Wood products
-4.2
Metal products
-5.3
Petroleum
-10.5
Tobacco
-14.1
Transport Equip
-14.7
Apparel
-16.1
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
tion increased in January
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector January 2013, percent 13.6 10.2 23.9 18.4 5.0 22.4 6.3 -1.6 14.4 10.6 -0.5 -14.4 -14.2 1.2 12.5 11.4 -5.7 -10.9 2.4 -9.2 2.4
9
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Capacity utilization rate increased instrument and Vehicles running Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent
66.1
68.4
68.9
64.9
Aug-12 Sep-12
67.0 63.5
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Jan-13
d in January with Precision over normal capacities Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector January 2013, percent Precision instru Vehicles Chemical Electrical Machineries Petroleum Mineral Paper Transport Equip Rubber&Plastic Office automate Food & Bev Electronic Metal products Basic Mat Tobacco Textiles Apparel Leather Furniture Wood products
109.5 108.8 91.6 78.6 76.8 74.6 73.6 70.1 67.5 66.8 60.5 60.1 55.9 54.9 51.4 44.4 42.8 37.2 34.1 31.6 21.1
10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand is one of the countries w past 12 months
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Taiwan Ͳ Jan Indonesia Ͳ Dec China Ͳ Dec Thailand Ͳ Jan South Korea Ͳ Jan Australia Ͳ Q3
3
Malaysia Ͳ Dec 2.1
US Ͳ Jan 0.8
Pakistan Ͳ Dec -0.1
Hong Kong Ͳ Q3 Singapore Ͳ Jan
-0.4
India Ͳ Dec
-0.6 -0.9
Russia Ͳ Jan
-2.3
Euro Area Ͳ Dec Brazil Ͳ Dec Japan Ͳ Jan Source: The Economist
-3.5 -5.1
whose MPI grew strongly over the
x 19.2 11.0 10.3 10.1 7.3 4.3
3.7
11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Agriculture production started th compared to January last year Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100) CAGR
3.4%
106.1
113.3 112.3 109.3 110.9
100.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
e year with 0.8% growth
Monthly Average 250.0
129.3
122.8
200.0
YͲoͲY 0.8% MͲoͲM Ͳ36.8%
150.0
2013 100.0
2012
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
12 nd Cooperatives
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
13
Private consumption continues it
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
3.2%
111.2
117.8
126.2 121.9 124.3
130.7
134.3 127.3
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
s strong growth into 2013
Index* Monthly Average 160.0
147.1
155.0
139.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
2013 2012
145.0
140.0
MͲoͲM 2.0%
135.0
YͲoͲY
6.8% 130.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most consumption expenditures 2013 Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change Jan 2013 vs 2012, percent 110.8
Passenger Car (Unit) 31.8
Commercial Car (Unit) Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
27.5 18.9
Motocycle (Unit)
15.3
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht) Diesel (litre)
9.7
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
5.8
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
5.6
LPG (litre)
N.A.
NGV (litre)
N.A.
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
grew impressively in January
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change Jan 2013 vs Dec 2012, percent 23.8 25.5 22.1 3.7 1.0 4.2 -5.7 -3.5
N.A. N.A. 15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment also starts stro
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
6.8%
173.6 176.4 176.4 156.9
193.0
183.7 160.9
133.7
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
ongly in 2013
Monthly Average 300.0
250.0
2013 2012
242.3 200.0
210.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM 0.6%
YͲoͲY
22.0% 50.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
All key private investment expend January 2013 compared to a year Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change Jan 2013 vs 2012, percent
Domestic commercial car sales (unit)
120.
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
24.2
15.7
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
1.1
N.A.
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ditures had impressive growth in r ago Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change Jan 2013 vs Dec 2012, percent
2
5.5
-0.8
-1.4
2.6
3.1
17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
FDI finally grew 14% in 2012
Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD 11,331
9,460
9,112 8,547
8,048
4,853
05FY
06FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
07FY
08FY
09FY
10FY
Monthly cumulative FDI* 10,000 9,000
2012 8,000 7,000
7,778
11FY
2011
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
BOI’s net application for grew a fu
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign di Billion Baht
68
351 297
23
08FY
09FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
10F
urther 63% in 2012
irect investment*
8%
63%
648
396
36
FY
11FY
12FY
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Japan has been the biggest source
Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* break Percent of total
Others
20%
17%
USA ANIEs
3% 6%
10%
ASEAN
15%
12% 12%
Europe
23% 27%
Japan
35% 22%
08FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis
09FY
e of FDI for Thailand
kdown by country group
11% 23%
27%
4% 10%
3% 6% 6%
2% 7% 8%
17%
44%
10FY
7% 10%
7%
49%
11FY
58%
12FY 20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
2012 was a good year for Propert Condominium Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change Full year 2012 vs 2011, percent
105.2
Condo unit registered
36.7
New housing unit
11.1
Value of land transaction
Constr. Area in municipal
-2.0
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ty sector, especially for
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change Dec vs Nov 2012, percent
-6.6
-19.0
16.4
19.7
21 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
22
Export grew 13.6% in the first mo Automotive, Metal and Electronic
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in First month of 2013 vs that of 2012, percent Total export Metal Photo instru Aircrafts Optical instru Automotive Electronics Furniture PetroͲchemical Chemicals Electrical Other manufacturing Jewellery Forestry Agriculture Apparels Toiletries Machinery Footware Agro products Fishery Petroleum Mining Other export ReͲexports
13.6 93.5 58.6 45.0 43.2 32.6 28.8 22.5 20.2 20.1 13.9 13.4 13.0 11.4 10.9 10.4 8.6 8.1 5.2 4.7 -7.3 -7.7 -26.3 -90.0 -99.9
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
onth of 2013, driven mainly by cs Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total export growth Total export Automotive Metal Electronics PetroͲchemical Agriculture Chemicals Electrical Machinery Agro products Aircrafts Other manufacturing Apparels Photo instru Optical instru Jewellery Furniture Toiletries Forestry Footware ReͲexports Fishery Mining Petroleum Other export-4.0
13.6 3.8 3.6 3.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5
23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Growth in all major export destin Japan in the first month of 2013 Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term
7.1 (Trilli
100% =
5.9
5.2
6.1
6.7
Middle East
5.4
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
EU
13.2
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
11.3
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
11.7
11.1
11.3
12.7
12.2 18.4
18.1
17.4
18.1
21.0
21.0
Japan NAFTA Rest of the world
16.6
East Asia exͲJapan
18.3
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
22.5
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.7
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
nations, especially East Asia ex
ion)
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, First month of 2013 vs 2012
East Asia ex Japan
28.2%
18.7%
EU
15.4%
ASEAN
12.3%
NAFTA
9.9%
Middle East
Japan
5.0%
Rest of the world
0.7%
24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Others import has contributed m 2013
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in First month of 2013 vs 2012, percent
Total import
37.8
99.0
Others
58.4
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
Capital goods
30.7
Consumer goods
30.7
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
17.2
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ost to import growth so far in
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total import growth
37.8
Total import
12.3
Others
8.5
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
Capital goods
7.4
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
6.9
Consumer goods
2.7
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Others import has gained more sh
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classificatio Percent of total import in Baht term Ѯ 6.0
Ѯ 4.6
Ѯ 5.9
Others
8.0
7.8
10.2
Capital goods
19.3
22.3
20.9
Intermediate – NonͲFuel
44.8
43.0
44.0
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
20.7
18.6
17.4
Consumer goods
7.1
8.3
7.5
08FY
09FY
10FY
100% =
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
hare this year
n
4
Y
Ѯ 7.0
Ѯ 7.7
12.4
10.9
21.3
24.6
Ѯ 0.7
(Trillion)
18.0
22.7
40.0
37.6
18.9
19.1
16.7
7.5
7.8
8.3
11FY
12FY
13/1MO
34.2
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist arrivals increased 13% in t
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
8.4%
15.9 13.8 10.8
11.7
14.5
14.1
11.5
10.0
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism
the first month of 2013
Monthly cumulative 25.0
22.3 19.2
Y 11FY 12FY
20.0
15.0
2012
10.0
5.0
2013 0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Chinese, Japanese and Korean are arrivals growth so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world
14.3
15.3
15.6
14.7
13.9
Americas
6.2
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.2
Europe
27.3
East Asia
28.7
27.9
52.1
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.1
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
e the main drivers in tourist
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality % of total change
First month of 2013 vs 2012, Thousands 85.9
China 36.1
Japan
32.4
Korea Singapore
26.7
Russia
24.9 20.6
India Indonesia
13.3
35% 14% 13% 11% 10% 8% 5%
USA
6.6
3%
Taiwan
6.2
2%
United Kingdom
5.2
2%
28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
29
Policy rate remains at 2.75% whil moved in February Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% Mar-12
2.60% Feb-13
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Mar-12
0.00% Feb-13
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
e other interest rates rarely
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% Feb-13
Mar-12
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min
5.00% 2.50%
Mar-12
anches
0.00% Feb-13
30 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
38% increase in fiscal expenditure
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2013 0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
e in the first month of 2013
2012
J
A
S
O
N
D
31
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
32
Businesses were more optimistic pessimistic in January Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better
50.2
49.9
52.1
52.0
50.6
51.1
50
Worse
0 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
while Industries were more
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
98.5
94.1
93.0
95.2
98.8
97.3
Worse
0 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
33 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Consumers were in overall less pe
Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index 200
Better
100
On future incom
Worse
0 Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
Jul-12
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 200 100 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior m Over 100 means consumer confidence is better than those of th Under 100 means consumer confidence is worse than those of t
Source: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, UTC
essimistic in January
me
On job Overall
Aug-12 Sep-12
month he prior month the prior month
CC
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
35
Actual GDP growth in 2012 beat t BOT and the Economist poll revise Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2012, Annual percentage change 7.00
Actual*
6.50
BOT
6.00
The Economist poll NESDB FPO
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
Forecast as of, month ending Note: (*) released on 18/2/2013
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
the consensus projections and ed up theirs for 2013
omist
Chart 1.03b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2013, Annual percentage change 7.00
6.50
6.00
BOT
5.50
FPO NESDB
5.00
4.50
The Economist poll 4.00 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
Forecast as of, month ending 36 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth for 2013 is exp India and Indonesia
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2012, Annual % change, as of Mar 2nd 2013 7.
China 5.2
India
6.3
Indonesia
5.8
Thailand
5.2
Malaysia Brazil
1.0 4.2
Pakistan 3.4
Russia Hong Kong Taiwan
1.6 1.1 2.1
South Korea Singapore
1.2 3.4
Australia US Japan Euro Area -0.5
Source: The Economist
2.2 1.9
ected to be behind only China,
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2013, Annual % change, as of Mar 2nd 2013
8
8.5 6.5 6.4 4.6 4.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.0 -0.1 37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
38
Unemployment rate increased in the whole decreased slightly from Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.16
2.07 1.83 1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
December, and the average for m 2011
Monthly Average 1.20
1.00
0.80
2012 2011
0.60
0.40
0.68
0.66
11-Avg 12-Avg
0.20
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
39 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ Dec Singapore Ͳ Q4
0.5 1.8
Malaysia Ͳ Dec
3.3
South Korea Ͳ Jan
3.4
Hong Kong Ͳ Jan
3.4
China Ͳ Q4
4.1
Japan Ͳ Dec
4.2
Taiwan Ͳ Jan
4.2
Brazil Ͳ Jan
5
Australia Ͳ Jan
5
Russia Ͳ Jan Pakistan Ͳ 2011 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 US Ͳ Jan India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Dec Source: The Economist
lowest comparing to other
.4
.4 6.0 6.0 6.1 7.9 9.9 11.7
40 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
41
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
42
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 43
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Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
44
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
45
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
46
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2011, Atlas method (current US$) Norway (1) Qatar (2) Luxembourg (3) Switzerland (4) Denmark (5) Sweden (6) Netherlands (7) US (8) Finland (9) Austria (10) Belgium (11) Canada (12) Japan (13) Germany (14) Singapore (15) France (16) UAE (17) Ireland (18) UK (19) Italy (20) Hong Kong (21) Iceland (22) Spain (23) Israel (24) Greece (25)
Source: The World Bank
60,390 53,230 49,730 48,450 48,420 48,300 46,160 45,560 45,180 43,980 42,930 42,420 40,760 38,580 37,780 35,330 35,160 35,020 30,990 28,930 25,030
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 88,890 80,440 78,130
76,380
Czech Republic (29) Hungary (36) Brazil (46) Turkey (47) Argentina (49) Mexico (51) Malaysia (53) South Africa (65) Colombia (69) China (78) Thailand (83) Ecuador (85) Ukraine (100) Indonesia (103) Iraq (108) Egypt (109) Sri Lanka (110) Philippines (113) Bhutan (115) India (122) Vietnam (124) Nigeria (127) Lao PDR (130) Cambodia (139) Bangladesh (142)
18,520 12,730 10,720 10,410 9,740 9,240 8,420 6,960 6,110 4,930 4,420 4,140 3,120 2,940 2,640 2,600 2,580 2,210 2,070 1,410 1,260 1,200 1,130 830 770 48
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Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th to 81st, with GNI per capita almos
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2011, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Luxembourg (2) Norway (3) Singapore (4) Switzerland (5) Hong Kong (6) US (7) UAE (8) Netherlands (9) Sweden (10) Austria (11) Denmark (12) Germany (13) Canada (14) Belgium (15) Australia (16) Finland (17) UK (18) France (19) Japan (20) Ireland (21) Italy (22) Spain (23) Iceland (24) Korea, Rep. (25)
Source: The World Bank
64,260 61,460 59,380 52,570 52,350 48,820 47,890 43,140 42,200 42,050 41,900 40,230 39,660 39,190 38,110 37,670 36,010 35,910 35,330 34,180 32,400 31,400 31,020 30,370
hailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rank improved slightly st the same as China
es
( ) = World rank 86,440
Israel (26) Greece (30) Saudi Arabia (31) Czech Republic (33) Russia (36) Croatia (40) Turkey (44) Malaysia (47) Mexico (48) Mauritius (55) Brazil (63) South Africa (68) China (80) Thailand (81) Bhutan (92) Sri Lanka (93) Indonesia (102) Philippines (106) India (112) Vietnam (116) Lao PDR (119) Cambodia (126) Bangladesh (132) Nepal (145) Ethiopia (150)
27,110 25,100 24,700 24,370 20,560 18,760 16,940 15,650 15,390 14,330 11,420 10,710 8,390 8,360 5,570 5,520 4,500 4,140 3,590 3,250 2,580 2,230 1,940 1,260 1,110 49
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Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
2009
23,236
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
17,403
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
50
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
51
Both Head line and Core inflation
Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 4.00% 3.50%
Head line 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50%
Core*
1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
n decreased slightly in February
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product February 2013, percent 9.9
Veg & fruit
9.4
Energy 7.6
Tobacco & alcohol 4.6
Meat 3.3
Housing & furnishing Eggs & milk
2.9
Prepared food at home
2.8
Transport & Commu
2.6
Food away from home
2.6 2.1
Non alcoholic beverage Medical care Apparel and footware
1.2 1.0
Recreation & Education
0.6
Rice
0.5
Seasoning
0.4
52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Apart from India and Pakistan an inflation in leading economies see Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
India Ͳ Jan Pakistan Ͳ Jan Russia Ͳ Jan
6
Brazil Ͳ Jan 4.6
Indonesia Ͳ Jan 3.6
Singapore Ͳ Jan
3.2
Thailand Ͳ Feb
3.0
Hong Kong Ͳ Jan Australia Ͳ Q4
2.2
Euro Area Ͳ Jan
2.0
China Ͳ Jan
2.0
US Ͳ Jan
1.6
South Korea Ͳ Jan
1.5
Malaysia Ͳ Jan
1.3
Taiwan Ͳ Jan
1.1
Japan Ͳ Dec Note: (*) The Economist Poll Source: The Economist
-0.1
d to certain extent Russia, ems to be manageable 2012* 10.8
9.3
8.1
9.7
7.1
5.1 5.4
6.2
4.3 4.6 3.0 4.1 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.9 -0.1
53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Inflation at Producer level decrea level Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
ased slightly to 0.1%, a very low
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product February 2013, percent Fishing Livestocks Food Metal Mechinery Leather & footware Transport equip Textile NonͲmetallic mineral Chemical Wood Pulp & paper Electrical equip Forestry Crop -2.1 Petroluem products -2.2 Basic metals -2.7 Other manu goods -2.7 Energy -5.3 Rubber & plastic-8.5
9.9 8.2 3.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
55
Bank’s loan continued to increase tightened slightly Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Ju
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95% 90%
90.2%
89.6%
89.6%
Jan-12
Feb-12 Mar-12
91.7%
92.8%
9
85% 80%
Source: Bank of Thailand
Apr-12 May-12 J
e while liquidity in the system
MͲoͲM
1.1% YͲoͲY
13.7%
un-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
90.8%
91.4%
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
92.2%
93.1%
it* ratio
92.4%
91.9%
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12 Sep-12
91.1%
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL decreased in both the loan in 2012
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht 592 477
05YE
06YE
445
458
07YE
08YE
401
09YE
380
10Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans
10.73% 8.16%
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
7.47%
07YE
7.31%
08YE
5.29%
4.85
09YE
10Y
amount and percentage of total
ss NPLs Outstanding
0
YE
317
11YE
269
12YE
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
5%
YE
3.60%
11YE
2.74%
12YE
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 57 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio keep rising in
Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8%
16.1%
14.9% 13.4%
13.3%
1 14.0%
13.9%
12.4%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
December
nks* Month End 16.5%
16.2%
14.8%
2012 16.0%
15.5%
15.0%
2011
14.5%
2011
anches
2012
14.0%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand is one of the many coun rates Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Mar 2nd 2013
൞
3M riskͲfree interest rates
9.4
Pakistan 8.1
India
7.3
Russia
7.2
Brazil 4.9
Indonesia 3.9
China Malaysia
3.2
Australia
3.2 2.8
South Korea
2.5
Thailand Taiwan Hong Kong
0.9 0.5
US
0.3
Singapore
0.3
Euro Area
0.2
Japan
0.2
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-0.
tries with negative real interest
1
=
Expected 2012 inflation*
Real interest rates
9.7
-0.3
9.3
-1.2
5.1
2.2
5.4
1.8
4.3
0.6
2.6
1.3
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.3
2.2
0.6
3.0
-0.5
1.9
-1.0 4.1
2.1
-1.8 4.6
2.5
-3.6
-4.3 -2.3 0.3
59
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
SET has performed quite well in 2 out flow Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end
5.8%
5.1%
41153
0.0%
1.9%
41183
41214
41244
5.9% 4.6%
41275
41306
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0
E
0.0 -5.0
J-13
F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13
J-13
A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
2013, despite net foreign fund Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2012 Percent, as of Feb 27th 2013 11.2%
China (SSEB, $ terms) Indonesia (JSX)
9.3%
Thailand (SET)
9.1%
Japan (Nikkei 225)
8.3%
Australia (All Ord.)
8.3%
US (DJIA)
7.4%
UK (FTSE 100)
7.3%
Pakistan (KSE)
7.0% 6.3%
US (S&P 500)
4.7%
US (NAScomp)
3.0%
Singapore (STI)
2.6%
Taiwan (TWI)
1.9%
China (SSEA)
1.4%
France (CAC 40)
0.8%
Germany (DAX) S Korea (KOSPI)
0.4%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
0.2% -0.4%
HK (Hang Seng) India (BSE)
-1.4%
Malaysia (KLSE) -3.8%
60 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
61
Huge government budget deficit r slightly better than in 2009
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4% 0.3% 0.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1% -0.5%-0.6%
-1.7 -2.0%
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
relative to GDP in 2012, only
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
-1.1%-1.1%
-1.3%
7% -2.6% -3.6% -3.9%
-4.0% -4.4%
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY 62
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Apart from 2010 and 2011, there between budget and cash balance Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
110 16 24
0
88
8 -36 -45
-1 -144 -174
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
were not much differences e
plus)
-28
-75
00 -96
-36 -54 -137
-264
-364 -401
-411 -446
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
'13/1mo
63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Compared to others, Thailand bu around the middle
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2012*, percent South Korea Singapore Hong Kong Russia Australia China Taiwan Indonesia Brazil Euro Area Thailand** Malaysia India Pakistan
-6
US
-7.0
Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll (**) Actual
Source: The Economist
-9.8
dget deficit in 2012 was at
ercentage of GDP 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.0 -1.3 -1.6 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -3.3 -3.6 -4.7 -5.4
6.6
64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Budget deficit for the first month worse off than the same period la Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
1
Revenue 1,013
1,109
16
0
Budget balance -996
-1,109
1,241
-36
-1,277
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-1,629
-1,598
1,484
110 -364
-1,280
Expenditure
-1,849
-1
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
of 2013 is already THB 24 billion ast year
Monthly cumulative Budget balance 0.0 ,751
1,902
2,078 -50.0
2013 2012
-100.0 -150.0
-75
-28 -411
-200.0 -250.0 -300.0
1,825
-1,930
-350.0 -2,489
-400.0 -450.0
0FY 11FY 12FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Public debt increased in absolute mainly to direct government debt Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0
4.0 Public debt from State Enterprises 3.0
2.0
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2008 12%
2009
2010
2011
10%
8%
8%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
2012 7%
Ext as
and relative to GDP in 2012, due t Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30% 25%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2008
ternal debt percent of total
2009
2010
2011
2012
66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2012 or latest 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan
219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
9
ta
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 69 Thailand 74 Denmark 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia
56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 44 45 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11
67
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • Monthly MPI grew strongly with 10 • Private consumption and Private In • Strong growth in external demand • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and the Economist poll revised between 4.6%Ͳ5.6%
• Unemployment rate increased sligh decreased slightly from 2011 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 3.2% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite healthy. Ba system’s NPL decreased in amount • Fiscal deficits continue into 2013 as billion worse off than the same per just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing 0.1% yearͲonͲyear growth in January 2013 nvestment continue to grow strongly into 2013 (Export and Tourists) in January 2013 ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up theirs for 2013 ; the consensus projection is now
htly in December, and the average for the whole year
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in February, while Core inflation dropped to 1.57%, a rather ional standards ank’s capital ratio increased to 16.2% in December. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. s Budget deficit for the first month of 2013 is already THB 24 riod last year. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in February.
68
Positive Balance of Payments in t largely to net capital movement
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.7
24.1
1.2 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
5.3 12FY
1.0 13/1mo
he first month of 2013 due Trade Balance (F.O.B)
on
32.6
29.8
17.3
17.0
8.3 -2.8
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/1mo
Net service income & transfer 0.6
+
-15.2
-10.7
08FY
09FY
-19.7
10FY
-11.1
-5.6
11FY
12FY
13/1mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 22.5
21.3 2.2
2.5
3.3
12FY
13/1mo
-4.7 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2012 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q4 Taiwan Ͳ Q4 Hong Kong Ͳ Q3 Malaysia Ͳ Q4 4.0%
Russia Ͳ Q4
3.3%
South Korea Ͳ Jan
2.8%
China Ͳ Q4 Japan Ͳ Dec
1.0%
Thailand Ͳ Q4
0.8%
Euro Area Ͳ Dec
0.6% -1.0%
Pakistan Ͳ Q4 Brazil Ͳ Jan
-2.4%
Indonesia Ͳ Q4
-2.6%
US Ͳ Q3 Australia Ͳ Q3 India Ͳ Q3
-3.0% -3.8% -4.8%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 51.4
18.7%
49.6
9.8% 6.8%
4.0
6.8%
19.5
Thailand and NESDB
81.2 46.4 213.8 59.0 2.7 141.4 -2.0 -58.6 -24.2 -477.9 -52.2 -80.6
70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Negative trade balance so far in 2 export Chart 5.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Trade balance* decomposition Billion Baht
593
257
-111
-176
-275
-647 8FY
9FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/1MO
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of p (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of p
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
2013 as import grew faster than
Export**
5,851
6,113
6,708
7,091
5,195
555 8FY
Ͳ
9FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/1MO
Import***
6,983 5,962
7,739
5,857 4,602 731
8FY
9FY
w adjustments ayment and exchange rate conversion payment and exchange rate conversion
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/1MO
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt level increased in b terms Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0 03YE
04YE
05YE
06YE
07Y
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
40.3%
40.9%
03YE
04YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
37.0%
38.5%
05YE
06YE
35.4%
07YE
both absolute and relative to GDP
YE
%
E
08YE
09YE
31.4%
28.8%
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
35.2%
33.7%
10YE
11YE
12/3Q
37.7%
12/3Q
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
More public debt and more longͲ composition in 2012 Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
4%
96%
08YE
8%
92%
09YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
13%
15%
87%
85%
10YE
11YE
21%
79%
12/3Q
term debt in external debt
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
44%
44%
56%
56%
08YE
09YE
50%
50%
10YE
46%
45%
54%
55%
11YE
12/3Q
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt 418% 372% 340%
330%
306% 257%
07YE
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12/3Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
10.3%
7.7%
7.3%
4.5%
07FY
08FY
09FY
3.7%
3.8%
10FY
11FY
12/3Q
74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves decrea considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
54.4
55.9
2004
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
9.1 6.9
2004
5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ased slightly in January but still
191.7
206.4
205.8
205.3
2011
2012
Jan-13
10.0
9.7
2012
Jan-13
154.1
0
8
2009
2010
er of months of import** 13.8
12.6 10.8
8
2009
the last 12 months
2010
2011
75 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB appreciated almost 2% in Feb
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
110.0
Baht appreciates
108.0
106.0
MͲoͲM
1.9% YͲoͲY
6.5% Baht depreciates Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
104.0
102.0
100.0 98.0 96.0 Feb-13
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
bruary
e
0
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Feb 28st 2013 3.5
PHP Ͳ 0.7446
2.2
KRW Ͳ 0.0276 SGD Ͳ 24.3565
-0.5
0
CNY Ͳ 4.8633
-0.5
0
MXN Ͳ 2.346
-0.8
0
0
USD Ͳ 29.9455
-1.5
TWD Ͳ 1.0098
-1.7
EUR Ͳ 39.4688
-3.9
MYR Ͳ 9.8027
-4.2
GBP Ͳ 45.5277
-6.2
AUD Ͳ 30.8811
-6.4
VND Ͳ 0.0014
-6.7 -8.5
IDR Ͳ 3.2667 -11.0
INR Ͳ 0.5907 JPY Ͳ 32.5629
-14.1
Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates 76
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